Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
DROP IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KVEL EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY ALSO INDICATED AT
KASE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY DRIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED AND NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS. HRRR HINTING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING SO MAY DRAG POPS
OUT A BIT LONGER ON NEXT UPDATE. FINALLY...SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY DELAY THE FREEZING TEMPS
A BIT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. HOWEVER...ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS AND CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS THROUGH ALL BUT THE SAN JUAN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE JET WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER NW-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW VARIABILITY BUT
STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-5 INCHES NEAR THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
THE STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE WAINING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE IN SW
COLORADO AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BUT FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL FLOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. A FLAT RIDGE WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AND ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WESTERLY FLOW MODERATE TO STRONG.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEST AS THE
WESTERN LOW DROPS TO A POSITION OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA BY LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT....WHICH WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. THE FLOW STILL REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG SO GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS STAY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON WED INTO
THU...WITH THE NORTH FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER AT 05Z AND WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY 12Z FRI. TROUGH PASSAGE AND THEN TRAILING NW
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
THROUGH 16Z FRI WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED. CLEARING ACROSS SE UT
AND SW CO WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRI AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LESS ON FRI.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1159 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS BETWEEN THE I-90 AND I-70 CORRIDOR. IT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AHEAD OF A
COMPACT YET FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SOME BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS SW NYS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS EXTENDING FURTHER N AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY EXTENDING
AS FAR N AND E AS THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND AS FAR S
AND E AS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WHERE A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD
OCCUR...LEADING TO ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...MOST
ACCUMS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING ON COLDER
SURFACES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING VERY COLD OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS BY A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS
ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 30 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TURNING UNSETTLED.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYTSEM`S COLD
FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION...ACROSS THE MID/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH IT SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY THE FOCUS WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD.
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SAGA OF THE WAVERING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/AROUND OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE AS CONFLUENT UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND FLAT UPPER
RIDGING JUST SO GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO JUST SO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THEN SOME
QUICK SMALL NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY ENHANCES THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. RESULTING IN
NORTHERN STREAM BASED LOW LEVEL RIDGING...PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE A LITTLE SOUTH...COOLING OUR REGION A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN...AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. AND UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BETTER UPPER RIDGING IN
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND POTENTIALLY MORE LOW LEVEL WARMING AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS NORTH AGAIN.
SO...TIMING PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY AND QUICK SHOTS OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION PROVIDES SOME CHALLENGES. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE SETS OF
GUIDANCE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES
BECOME BETTER RESOLVED...PUTTING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...BUT PERHAPS MID 50S SOUTHERN
AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AS THE COOLING TAKES
PLACE.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FORCING BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD STILL BE OVER SOME PART OF
THE REGION. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER ENERGY IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN THIS
TIME SPAN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. BUT
AGAIN...TIMING VERY MUCH IN QUESTION SO BROAD BRUSHING CHANCES UNTIL
TIMING IS CLEARER AS WE GET TOWARD THE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
50S...SOME UPPER 40S NORTH...AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT050 CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE EVNG BFE BCMG SCT-BKN040
OVRNT. SUN A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. AOA BKN-OVC080 CLOUDS WILL OVER SPREAD THE AREA WITH
INCRG SCT-BKN040-050 DURING THE AFTN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE VFR
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/SNSH MAY DVLP DURING THE
AFTN...BUT ATTM TO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO WEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT IS FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA
HARBOR FOR MINOR FLOODING. BASED ON THE CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
THE ONLY RIVER POINT FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IS ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND THIS COULD FALL JUST SHY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TURN COLDER WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED
ENDING SNOWMELT. THEN THERE WILL BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT COLD ENOUGH TO
SNOW AND EVEN STOP THE MELT.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OF LESS
WITH SOME OF THAT FALLING AS SNOW.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
413 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TRACKS INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THEN MOVE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA...CAUSING THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
WAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE 40 DEGREE F WATER. WEB CAMS ALONG OCEAN
PARKWAY IN SUFFOLK COUNTY WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG AS OF 2 PM.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO ADVECT INLAND QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
COASTAL CT THIS EVENING.
A VERY DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS INTO NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH THE NW WIND AT
KMGJ AND KPOU. LATEST NWP AND RADAR...DO NOT SUGGEST NO MORE THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
COMES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE THUS MOVE THE
POP FOCUS TO THAT TIME PERIOD AND INCLUDE THE LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS PER THE PREVIOUS FCST. THUNDER BASED ON SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT. LATEST RAP APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNRISE COLD FROPA. EXPECTING WIND TO PEAK RIGHT WITH THE FROPA -
SOME PEAKS TO NEAR 40 KT...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORY (SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL). WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FOR THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUN.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
20S OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PREPARE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH EARLY SPRING SWINGS OF
TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM 20 PCT SOUTH/NYC TO 40 PCT NORTH/NORTHERN INTERIOR DURG
THE AFTN AND EVE AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SE FROM A LOW PRES SYS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IF THIS FRONT DEVELOPS
FURTHER S...THEN A HIGHER CHC OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN WARM AIR SECTOR WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIP.
TUESDAY THROUGH THU MORNING...A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL BUILD
SE TOWARD THE REGION AS A SERIES OF WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH THE REGION. TEMP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT 1/2-3/4 INCH BOTH TUE AFTN-
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED AFTN-NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
LATE THU-FRI...YET ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES SYS MVS NE TOWARD THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND WELL EAST OF THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY.
SW WINDS NEAR 10 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIFR/VLIFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS THE COAST FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS SHOWERS COME TO A
LULL AND WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SW-NW TRANSITION OF WINDS AS THEY INCREASE IN SPEED
ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE 15-25
KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 30-
35 KT. GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 40 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS. 1/4 SM
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME BEFORE 10Z SAT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY.
IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD VARY BY A FEW HOURS SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30KT.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 15G20KT ON SUN.
.SUN NIGHT-WED...MVFR CONDS AT TIMES IN POSSIBLE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN...DUE TO SEAS AND THEN WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DENSE ADVECTION FOG CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE LATE TNGT ON ALL WATERS AS LOW PRES TRACKS W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.
WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL WATERS AND REACH GALE FORCE
AROUND SUNRISE. THE GALES DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS
TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LVLS BY SUNDAY AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OF THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TUE-WED...NE-E WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL DEVELOP ND PERSIST CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-9 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2" OF RAIN IS FCST THRU TNGT. RFC QPF WAS USED FOR THE
GRIDS. ONLY TYPICAL MINOR URBAN PONDING EXPECTED.
DRY OR NO SIG PCPN SAT-MONDAY
TUE AFTN-NIGHT AND WED AFTN-NIGHT...CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT 1/2-3/4 INCH WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH MODERATE EVENTS. WET SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BOTH TUE AND WED
NIGHTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
177>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GC/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER SUNDAY MAY GIVE WAY TO A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN OF MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS W MA AND RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS MA PIKE REGION OF MA AND N CT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE DRYING MOVING IN
FROM THE N SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON N OF THE PIKE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S COAST WHERE CLOUDS AND
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. HI-RES WRF KEEPS SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE S BUT HRRR AND NAM HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT...RI AND SE MA THIS AFTERNOON.
925 MB TEMPS AROUND 11C SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 70 DEGREES WHERE
THERE IS SUNSHINE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR NE MA AND
CT VALLEY IN N MA. COOLER FURTHER TO THE S WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES S OF THE PIKE. COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SECONDARY AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. INITIALLY THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO LIFT ONCE AGAIN BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW PRES AS WELL AS
50-60 KT LLJ...AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH TT OVER 50...TQ
AROUND 20...AND K VALUES EXCEEDING 30 ALL COMBINE FOR A
REINFORCING SHOT OF RAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. PWATS ARE 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR TO THE S COAST WHERE THE FRONT STARTS AND NOSE
OF THE LLJ MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS...BUT HEAVIER RAIN FURTHER N.
PWATS /INCLUDING THU NIGHT AND FRI/ RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25 INCHES
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
INFORMATION HYDRO CONCERNS WITH THIS RAINFALL...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER PAST SUNRISE. MILD
NIGHT AS MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
SAT...
LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING IT/S WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW SHIFTS E SO WILL GRADUALLY SEE AN END TO PRECIP FROM SW TO NE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE BIG ISSUE ON SAT WILL BE THE WIND. THE DEEPENING LOW PRES AND
INTRUDING HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET. NOTING 45+ KT NW LLJ AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUPPORT MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 UNDER COLD ADVECTION. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD BE ENOUGH TO MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS ALONE...BUT GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. GIVEN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
MORNING/S UPDATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUN/EARLY MON AM
* BRIEF RETURN OF MILD WEATHER POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON
* UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES RETURN TUE/WED/THU
* PERIOD OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU
* LOW RISK FOR EVEN A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TUE/WED
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY WEATHER SAT NIGHT. LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DESPITE 850T BETWEEN -6C AND -8C...PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE
40S...TO THE LOWER 50S SUN AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE SUN AND ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS OUR REGION...PROBABLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUN/EARLY MON AM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER...BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PIKE. FEEL THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT STILL CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PLACING AT LEAST SOME OF OUR REGION TEMPORARILY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 50S
AND PERHAPS EVEN 60S...BUT THERE IS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN TEMPS
DEPENDING WHERE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW OVER THIS TIME. ANOMALOUS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH BRINGING A RETURN TO MUCH
CHILLIER WEATHER. THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SO FAR SOUTH THAT
IT ONLY HAS A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
LATE MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. THE
GGEM/UKMET ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE
MON NIGHT/TUE. IN FACT...MAY END UP COLD ENOUGH FOR EVEN A LOW RISK
OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE DEPENDING ON
POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF SOME WET SNOW.
HOWEVER...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY END UP SUPPRESSED ENOUGH WHERE WE
SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT WITH THIS
POTENTIAL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME
WED INTO THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST WARMING ALOFT. WHILE WE MAY SEE
SOME SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN. AGAIN...TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF IFR AND PERIODS OF VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IN CT/RI AND SE
MA IN FOG/LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR FURTHER N. PERIODS OF
RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.
SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING...WITH VFR LIKELY EVERYWHERE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. BIG ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...SUSTAINED
AT 20+ KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON AM.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR EVEN SOME WET SNOW LATE MON
NIGHT/TUE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BUT REMNANT SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5-7FT ESPECIALLY ON S AND SE WATERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DROPPING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT REMAINING UP ON THE OCEAN AND SRN
WATERS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING BUT SHIFTING WINDS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND FOG LEADING TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. RAINS COME TO AN END BUT SUSPECT WE WILL SEE GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS IN SPITE OF MIXING ISSUES OVER THE COLDER WATERS. WILL
BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS SAT NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE GALE HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
POSITIONING OF A COLD FRONT AND WHERE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK. LOOKS LIKE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MMEFS DATA AS WELL AS COLLAB WITH THE NERFC SUGGEST THAT SOME
RIVERS ACROSS NRN MA MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AS THE
HEAVIER RAIN THREAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT. SOME EVEN POTENTIALLY
REACHING ACTION STAGE. WITH QPF VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME SPOTS AND SWE VALUES OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES REMAINING ACROSS
NRN MA...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FLOODING OF THESE RIVERS
/PARTICULARLY THE UPPER MERRIMACK SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS OF
WRN MA/ TO SUPPORT A WATCH AT THIS TIME AS GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN
AGREEMENT ON ACTION STAGE AT BEST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE IT
SLOWLY DRAGS A COLD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. A DEEPENING WAVE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT OUT TO SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SERIES OF IMPULSES
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY. EACH WAVE
WILL PROVIDE BOUTS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM ESTF COMMENTS ON THE PRIOR 330 AM FCST AND ITS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TODAY...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AT 6 AM BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SETTLE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH PTN OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ALONG
AND S OF I-78) IN THE HIGHER PWAT AXIS OF 1.4 INCHES. LLJ WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN IN OUR AREA BUT POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG WHERE POSSIBLY SOME SB
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER 70S EXPECTED S DE AND S PTN OF OUR MD
ZONES AS PER HRRR AND EVEN LOW-MID 70S S NJ AWAY FROM THE WATER.
THE GOING FCST FOR PHILADELPHIA ITSELF MAY BE TOO COOL BY 3F?
06Z NAM A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE WIND THIS AFTN SO HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY IN S DE WHERE WARMEST...FQT GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE: AVG
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THERE-AFTER A PROLONGED EPISODE
OF PSEUDO-ZONAL WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS THE GOMEX REMAINS OPEN FOR THE TAPPING.
SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECTING THE DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS WITH GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN.
A RATHER LONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT AS WAS
STATED ABOVE, SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE IMPULSES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING PLACE AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO SHOVE THE
FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME KEEPING A
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE TAP INTO THE GOMEX AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMS. ANOTHER POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX IS
EXPECTED WHILE MORE WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASS OVERHEAD
ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY...COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE SHOULD DEVELOP A EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLINKING ACROSS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE ARE THE TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS. WE TRENDED THE HIGHS DOWN A
BIT EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS, SOME RAIN, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...WE WENT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. VSBY RESTRICTION
POSSIBLE TO 5-6 MI IN SHOWERS.
AFTER 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR CIGS OR POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS IN BANDS OF SHOWERS. VSBY MAY BE RESTRICTED TO 3 MI IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY S-SW WIND. GUSTS LESS THAN THURSDAY AFTN, GENERALLY UNDER
25 KT EXCEPT 30 KT S DE. CHANCE OF A HEAVY TSTM MID-LATE AFTN E
PA VCNTY KRDG SOUTHWARD TO THE DELMARVA? MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR
THIS TIME FRAME OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON FCST CIGS/VSBYS IS BELOW AVG.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS WITH A CHANCE OF WSW WIND GUST 35-45 KT IF A TSTM
OCCURS. THINKING BEST CHC OF A TSTM IS 04Z-08Z. THEN THE CFP
AROUND 09Z-11Z WITH A WSHIFT TO NW, STRONG PRESSURE RISES (10MB IN
3 HRS DESPITE THE DEPARTING SFC LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY) AND NW
WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT...STRONGEST IN S NJ AND DE.
AN EPISODE OF LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THOUGH MARGINAL AND DEPENDENT
ON THE SFC WIND. CERTAINLY SW WINDS OF 50-60 KT DEVELOP TONIGHT,
MAINLY 02Z-08Z/4 AND STRONGEST SE NJ.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY NORTH OF ABE.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON SAT. IF WE`VE OVERSTATED THE
SITUATION FOR A GALE WARNING (VERIFICATIONS OF 2 HOURS OR MORE OF
GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING), THEN IT CAN BE
CONVERTED BACK TO AN SCA. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE GFS/NAM TRANSFER IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERIFYING AT LEAST NJ AND DE BAY WATERS.
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE THEN SHARPLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SSW GALE OF EARLY TODAY. THEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OF GALE
GUSTS IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW
AND GALE GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET
IN DELAWARE BAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG ON THE MWW SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ONCE WE LOSE THE GALE GUSTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOULD LOSE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
DELAWARE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SEAS INCREASE A BIT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 633A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE IT
SLOWLY DRAGS A COLD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. A DEEPENING WAVE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT OUT TO SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SERIES OF IMPULSES
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY. EACH WAVE
WILL PROVIDE BOUTS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM ESTF COMMENTS ON THE PRIOR 330 AM FCST AND ITS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TODAY...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AT 6 AM BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SETTLE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH PTN OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ALONG
AND S OF I-78) IN THE HIGHER PWAT AXIS OF 1.4 INCHES. LLJ WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN IN OUR AREA BUT POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG WHERE POSSIBLY SOME SB
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER 70S EXPECTED S DE AND S PTN OF OUR MD
ZONES AS PER HRRR AND EVEN LOW-MID 70S S NJ AWAY FROM THE WATER.
THE GOING FCST FOR PHILADELPHIA ITSELF MAY BE TOO COOL BY 3F?
06Z NAM A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE WIND THIS AFTN SO HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY IN S DE WHERE WARMEST...FQT GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE: AVG
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THERE-AFTER A PROLONGED EPISODE
OF PSEUDO-ZONAL WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS THE GOMEX REMAINS OPEN FOR THE TAPPING.
SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECTING THE DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS WITH GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN.
A RATHER LONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT AS WAS
STATED ABOVE, SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE IMPULSES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING PLACE AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO SHOVE THE
FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME KEEPING A
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE TAP INTO THE GOMEX AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMS. ANOTHER POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX IS
EXPECTED WHILE MORE WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASS OVERHEAD
ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY...COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE SHOULD DEVELOP A EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLINKING ACROSS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE ARE THE TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS. WE TRENDED THE HIGHS DOWN A
BIT EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS, SOME RAIN, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...WE WENT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. VSBY RESTRICTION
POSSIBLE TO 5-6 MI IN SHOWERS.
AFTER 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR CIGS OR POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS IN BANDS OF SHOWERS. VSBY MAY BE RESTRICTED TO 3 MI IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY S-SW WIND. GUSTS LESS THAN THURSDAY AFTN, GENERALLY UNDER
25 KT EXCEPT 30 KT S DE. CHANCE OF A HEAVY TSTM MID-LATE AFTN E
PA VCNTY KRDG SOUTHWARD TO THE DELMARVA? MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR
THIS TIME FRAME OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON FCST CIGS/VSBYS IS BELOW AVG.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS WITH A CHANCE OF WSW WIND GUST 35-45 KT IF A TSTM
OCCURS. THINKING BEST CHC OF A TSTM IS 04Z-08Z. THEN THE CFP
AROUND 09Z-11Z WITH A WSHIFT TO NW, STRONG PRESSURE RISES (10MB IN
3 HRS DESPITE THE DEPARTING SFC LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY) AND NW
WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT...STRONGEST IN S NJ AND DE. CONFIDENCE: AVG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY NORTH OF ABE.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON SAT. IF WE`VE OVERSTATED THE
SITUATION FOR A GALE WARNING (VERIFICATIONS OF 2 HOURS OR MORE OF
GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING), THEN IT CAN BE
CONVERTED BACK TO AN SCA. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE GFS/NAM TRANSFER IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERIFYING AT LEAST NJ AND DE BAY WATERS.
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE THEN SHARPLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SSW GALE OF EARLY TODAY. THEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OF GALE
GUSTS IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW
AND GALE GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET
IN DELAWARE BAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG ON THE MWW SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ONCE WE LOSE THE GALE GUSTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOULD LOSE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
DELAWARE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SEAS INCREASE A BIT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 624A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 624A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 624A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 624A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
950 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DETAIL LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...GIVING WAY TO SEEMINGLY PERMANENT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE KEYS ARE BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST
MIDDLE AND UPPER RIDGING PARKED IN LOWER CENTRAL AMERICA.
AS THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS DETAILS A NEAFR
1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CLOSER TO THE KEYS...RIDGING IS BIFURCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH A MESO HI BOTH TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 2500 FT AGL WITH GENTLE WINDS BACKING
TO BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH UP TO ABOUT 750 MB. THE COLUMN WAS
TYPICALLY DRY...WITH PWAT AOA .99 INCHES.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY 12Z...THE KEYS WILL
STILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA...WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING JUST NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
KEYS OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
SURFACE TO 700 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHTER BACKED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75.
LATEST THE HRRR DOES HOLD ON TO A FEW BOUNDARIES IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS OVERNIGHT...WHERE BELIEVE ITS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
GIVEN VERY WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT WILL
BE JUST TOO DRY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. GIVEN STRONG INSOLATION AND
BACKED FLOW AGAIN ON SUNDAY...A CLOUDLINE OR TWO MAY DEVELOP...BUT
IT WILL BE VERTICALLY CHALLENGED GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DRIER AIR
OOZING INTO THE MID LEVELS. NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO ISSUES
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KEY WEST
AND MARATHON. BRIEF EPISODES OF MVFR / IFR CEILINGS AND OR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z DUE TO FORMATION OF ISLAND CLOUD
LINES...PRODUCING A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING NORTHEAST
TO EAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1948...4.22
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST SETTING THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
APRIL 4TH...WHICH STANDS 67 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DAF
CLIMATE/AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
UPPER AIR/DATA COLLECTION.......BF
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...BAND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND STALL OUT LATE TONIGHT INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HINT AT SURGE
IN E/NE LOW LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY GENERATING BANDS OF
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THESE COASTAL
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF ANY PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE FARTHER
SOUTH AND INLAND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF
THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LEADING EDGE OF
THE HIGH AND THE WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE BREEZY CONDS FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO LOW TO MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM KISSIMMEE-CAPE NORTHWARD AND SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS NORTH OF KMLB WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDS INTO LATE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ALSO IMPACT KVRB-KFPR AROUND
DAYBREAK. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...E/NE SURGE IN WINDS STILL FORECAST AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE WATERS AND STALLS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO
20-25 KNOTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE LATE TONIGHT
WITH BUILDING SEAS INTO TOMORROW. SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT BY LATE
EVENING OVER THE VOLUSIA WATERS. HOWEVER DELAYED START OF SCA OVER
THE OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN MORE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE WATERS.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION...WEITLICH
RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015/
MON-MON NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -11C/-
12C. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INLAND MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCES (30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH L80S AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
INLAND.
TUE-FRI...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUE SMALL THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED...THEN AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. CONTINUED
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 05/02Z THEN MVFR CEILINGS BKN020-
025 AS FRONT MOVES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.MARINE... NOAA BUOYS RECORDING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORM.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET MOST LIKE TO BE ISSUED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT (E-SE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND WITH INITIAL 5-6 FT SEAS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC FALLING TO 3-4 FT ON TUE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS THROUGH
OUR REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...
.CURRENTLY...
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS)
COVERING OUR REGION. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVED ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WAS NOSING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DEPARTING THE ROCKIES
AND MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES. CLEARING SKIES
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
POCKETS OF RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVER OUR REGION. SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS HAVE ALSO ADVECTED SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 60-65.
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CEILINGS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SEA FOG OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THAT SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND MAY MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BY LATE MORNING. RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TODAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S INLAND. OUR LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING W/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHEAST FL LATE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL CLIMO.
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS DYNAMICS DEPART THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY WILL BECOME ZONAL AND WILL
WEAKEN...PRECLUDING ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA...KEEPING HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA UNTIL THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 80S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH ARE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
SAT NIGHT...COOLER TRAILING FROPA WITH DISSIPATING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NE FL DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BREEZY NNE FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE WITH COASTAL
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
SE GA TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SUN & SUN NIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WITH
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL AS THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY REMAINING OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER ESE. MIN TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW/MID
60S SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS STACKED
RIDGING DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA.
MON-TUE...SURFACE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND RETROGRADE
INLAND WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZES AND WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOCUSED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(30-40%) OVER INLAND SE GA AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 MON AFTN UNDER
PREVAILING SSE STEERING FLOW. TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER RIDING
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS FL AND CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT
20% OR LESS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
LINGERING SHALLOW FORCING FROM THE DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 30% OR LESS OVER SE GA TUE
AFTN/EVENING.
WED-FRI...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STACKED MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND S GA FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION WHILE THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS NEAR THE FL-GA
STATE-LINE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. CAPPED RAIN
CHANCES AT 15% OR LESS THROUGH THU THEN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO
ONLY 20% FRI OVER SE GA AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AS
UPPER RIDING ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM AND MEAN LAYER TROUGHING EDGES IN
FROM THE WEST WITH A TRANSITION TO SSW STEERING FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S MON-TUE TO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLE INLAND WED-FRI.
LOWS WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY AND
SSI TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT
JAX. PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 13Z
AT VQQ AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE BY 14Z. A
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SURFACE
WINDS FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT SSI AND CRG TOWARDS
18-19Z...AND JAX/VQQ TOWARDS 20-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH A SEA
BREEZE RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SURGE TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...WITH
CAUTION LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL PEAK IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA
LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
CAUTION LEVEL SEAS PERSISTING NEAR SHORE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. CAUTION LEVEL SEAS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL. LOW RISK ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ELEVATED
RISK RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY. BREEZY SW WINDS AND WARM TEMPS SAT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSIONS ACROSS NE FL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 64 75 48 / 0 30 50 0
SSI 79 63 78 56 / 0 20 50 10
JAX 85 62 81 57 / 10 20 50 20
SGJ 81 63 83 61 / 10 10 50 30
GNV 85 59 84 58 / 10 10 50 20
OCF 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 50 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE WESTER
PORTION OF THIS FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA...AND WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS
RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND
IOWA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AS DEEP LAYERED FORCING INCREASES BENEATH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 140+ KT UPPER JET STREAK AND WITHIN REGION OF HEIGHT
FALLS/VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WAVE. TRENDS IN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
F-GEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY IN LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TIGHTEN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT WITH COOL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE(S). FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH INDICATE PROFILES
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BECOME MORE MARGINAL
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
CHICAGO AREA AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. SURFACE TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PHASED MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY MID-EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRAIL A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH INDICATIONS OF A SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN SAGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S
SUNDAY...COOING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE UPPER PATTERN DETAILS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASING BY MID-WEEK. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS A
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS IL/IN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN BY LATER IN THE DAY
HOWEVER AS IT IT PARALLELS THE DEEPER FLOW FIELD AND THE STRONGER
PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WHILE DETAILS DIFFER BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES
TRACK ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES EJECTING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND.
FOR THE LOCAL CWA...THIS SUPPORTS A SHARPER THAN USUAL GRADIENT
IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF OF THE LAKE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AS WAVES RIPPLE BY TO THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A PERIODIC POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN INITIAL WAVE...THOUGH DETAILS OF TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE
SOMEWHAT AS THE PERIOD DRAWS NEAR. WHILE TEMPS ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
WOULD ALL BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN WITH PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATING RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
* LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY WIND THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SPECIFIC
WIND DIRECTIONS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT ALSO WILL BE TIGHTENING SO GUSTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED TO THE DEWPOINTS. WITH APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND COLD
FRONT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD OR
PREVAILING FOG WILL BECOME INTO NORTHEAST IL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IL. THE HEAVIEST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW FLAKES TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN...PRECIP COULD BE ENDING BY THAT TIME AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...REMOVED PROB MIX MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIP AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS IS FAIRLY
LOW...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND GYY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR SPECIFIC HEIGHTS/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MVFR/IFR PSBL AT TIMES.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
313 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE WITH A
PERIOD OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THIS
EVENING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A SECOND HIGH MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS FRONT
VARIES OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Frontal boundary stalling to the south, just north of the Ohio River
Valley this morning with plenty of convection along the boundary and
dominating the southern tier of the state. Weather in the short
term will be concentrated on the boundary, its location and the wave
moving into the region from the SW using the boundary as a focus for
more convective development. Temps today not likely to chance too
far off of where they are now, with cool air pushing into the region
from the north behind the boundary and plenty of cloud cover in
place blocking too much sunshine for most of the CWA. Exceptions
might be NW of the Illinois River Valley in patches of sun this
morning...and maybe south of Interstate 70 as the front lifts
slightly to the north by WAA to the south with the development of
the secondary low. However, the WAA will still be countered by
ongoing convective activity so significant warm up is not
anticipated. Next shortwave will reignite the convective
activity...and the better severe threat remains south of the
front...though southeastern IL is clipped by a marginal threat in
the Day One outlook from SPC. The threat is mainly large hail and
some gusty winds with the stronger storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Models have been consistently going back and forth with the depth of
the cold air this afternoon and into this evening. 12Z runs are
significantly colder and changing rain over to snow this
afternoon...whereas the 00Z runs are warmer longer, and not hinting
to frozen precip until maybe on the extreme back edge, around and
after 00Z this afternoon when the bulk of the precip has exited the
region. With the models also speeding up the exit...have pulled
mention before 00Z, but putting in a rain/snow mix in the extreme NE
this evening. No accumulations anticipated, but could see a flake or
two as the sunsets tonight.
Into a brief respite from the precip for the weekend...with mild
spring temps and sunshine. Breezy on Saturday in the northern two
thirds of the state, and much less of a gradient in the south and
lighter winds. Next system arriving and impacting the south on
Sunday night...NAM is slower and drier with the onset...and the GFS
faster and more expansive with the QPF. ECMWF somewhere in
between...but both ECMWF and GFS expand the precip to the north and
put Central Illinois in another wet pattern. WAA and southerly flow
sending a warm and wet airmass up into the region with a warm
frontal feature developing draped across the state. Shower activity
will most likely be off and on and not constant...but the precip
will remain somewhat heavy handed in the forecast at least through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue overnight at all TAF sites. However,
the HRRR is forecasting the wave that is producing the storms over
central and southern MO to move across IL in the morning. Storms
currently over parts of southwest IL will stay south of the TAFs,
but pcpn is forecasted to spread northward and effect all the TAFs
during the morning and afternoon hours. The heavier pcpn should
remain south of the sites, so cigs should remain VFR, but vis may
drop with the rain to 4-5sm. Once the wave/rain moves out of the
area during the late afternoon/early evening, cigs will improve
and conditions will become VFR. Winds will be northerly through
most of the forecast period, but become northwest after the wave
moves past the area. Winds will be light overnight, but become
gusty tomorrow as the pcpn moves through, then becoming light
again tomorrow evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX AND
POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR AT ONE POINT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THE REMAINING THE CWA
WITH A BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND ONGOING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE 60S POST FROPA...DEWPOINTS ARE
OBSERVING A SIGNIFICANT DROP. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE 50-60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR BEING REPLACED WITH 30 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT DID REMOVE
POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER CLEAR
OR PARTLY CLOUDY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA WILL LIKELY STREAM OVERHEAD
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD OUT AHEAD OF IT. PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
BLOSSOM AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ALL RAIN AS THIS PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIMILAR
THOUGHTS CONTINUE WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLING AS
PERSISTENT CAA OCCURS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX.
HOWEVER...AM MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING OWING
TO A STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PLACEMENT VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT FROM MOST GUIDANCE. THIS STRONGER
FORCING ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALOFT
TO LIKELY BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT ENTIRE COLUMN
WILL BE DYNAMICALLY COOLED TO SUPPORT EITHER A RAIN SNOW MIX OR
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN THE
GRIDS...AND THEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINING CWA. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRENDS
BUT HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE OF SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX. DONT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS AS I WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE
DAY AND AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD AND IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW FRIDAY...THEN I WOULD ALSO BE
CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...
A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS UNDER AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE FOLLOWING A CHILLY SUB FREEZING START TO THE
DAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SEE WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH OF ILLINOIS
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
EASTER HOLIDAY GIVEN MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD TREND IN
HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS MAY
AID THIS BOUNDARY TO OOZE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUSPECT IN POSSIBLY HELPING SUCH SCENARIO
ALONG AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANGES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE ALONG
WITH MARGINAL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS MINIMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MONDAY TO START OUT DRY WITH DEPARTING WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
SUNDAYS RAIN CHANCES. MODELS DEPICTING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
TIME HOWEVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS GULF BECOMES TAPPED. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BETTER
WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY. DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THEN HELPS
REFORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT
LIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
* LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY WIND THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SPECIFIC
WIND DIRECTIONS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT ALSO WILL BE TIGHTENING SO GUSTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED TO THE DEWPOINTS. WITH APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND COLD
FRONT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD OR
PREVAILING FOG WILL BECOME INTO NORTHEAST IL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IL. THE HEAVIEST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW FLAKES TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN...PRECIP COULD BE ENDING BY THAT TIME AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...REMOVED PROB MIX MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIP AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS IS FAIRLY
LOW...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND GYY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR SPECIFIC HEIGHTS/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MVFR/IFR PSBL AT TIMES.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THEY BECOME WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN NORTHWEST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
A BRIEFLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED THERMAL
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE TEMPERED LATER
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG A STALLED WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Showers and thunderstorms continue across southeast Illinois this
evening. Only had one report of dime size hail in Olney earlier
this evening...nothing since then. However, another wave has begun
to produce another complex of storms in southeast KS/southwest MO.
HRRR and other models have this area moving into southern IL
tonight, along the cold front that has reaching southeast IL.
Storms will remain possible overnight with this complex, but main
focus of severe weather potential will be south of CWA. Any chance
of severe weather will be marginal and likely limited to areas
along and south of Hwy 50. Locally heavy rainfall, however, will
be possible in the southeast as well. Again, main threat area will
likely be south of the CWA, but southeast 3 counties might see
something. Due to the limited area, still will not be issuing any
Flash Flood or Flood headline tonight. Overall, current forecast
looks to be on track. May make some minor tweaks to the grids, but
update is not planned/necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
19z/2pm surface map shows cold front extending from near Danville to
just north of St. Louis: however, radar indicates no convection
along the boundary. The bulk of the storms have developed further
south across Kentucky where the airmass is considerably more
unstable. Latest mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values generally in the
500 to 1000J/kg range across central Illinois, which are lower than
previously forecast. With partial sunshine breaking out and temps
rising into the middle 70s across the SE KILX CWA this afternoon,
still think scattered thunderstorms will develop along the advancing
front, mainly along/south of I-70. Front will slow its forward
progress as it gradually becomes parallel to the upper flow and will
stall along or just north of the Ohio River tonight. As a result,
will focus highest PoPs across the southeast in closer proximity to
the boundary and will go mainly dry across the northern half of the
CWA. As an upper-level wave ejects out of the southern Rockies,
surface low pressure will develop along the front and begin tracking
toward southern Illinois overnight. Light rain will develop
along/north of the low, but most of this precip will hold off until
Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Morning upper air data and the moisture channel IR data loop shows
first short wave in nearly zonal upper flow over eastern IL clearing
morning convection to east of area. 850mb moisture axis and thermal
ridge pointed northward along MS river into southern IL this
morning. Cold front on surface data and SFC mesoscale analysis data
has reached central IL. Some return of instability into area ahead
of front, and so as front drags southward, still chances of pcpn
into CWA, but best severe potential south of I-70, and mainly south
of CWA.
During the overnight, second shortwave in IR data over eastern UT
this afternoon, forecast to continue eastward and bring increased
instability and moisture back toward stalling frontal zone over
southern IL. This will keep best chance of heavy rain over southern
IL, and the southeast parts of CWA. Will have to watch the southeast
2 or 3 counties, as isolated heaviest rains possible in that area.
Will not issued flood watch at this time, but it will need to be
watched.
Shortwave brings colder air in mid day Friday, and so decreases pops
in the afternoon, but brings possible rain/snow into the northern
CWA Friday afternoon. Dry high pressure then in effect for Saturday
to Sunday.
Mainly zonal flow still in control for next week, with nearly
stalled front over the region, as it moves back north Sunday into
Monday. With several upper air waves moving through region, chances
of pcpn throughout the week. Pcpn amounts will mainly be on the
light side, as the waves are mainly weak on the models at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue overnight at all TAF sites. However,
the HRRR is forecasting the wave that is producing the storms over
central and southern MO to move across IL in the morning. Storms
currently over parts of southwest IL will stay south of the TAFs,
but pcpn is forecasted to spread northward and effect all the TAFs
during the morning and afternoon hours. The heavier pcpn should
remain south of the sites, so cigs should remain VFR, but vis may
drop wtih the rain to 4-5sm. Once the wave/rain moves out of the
area during the late afternoon/early evening, cigs will improve
and conditions will become VFR. Winds will be northerly through
most of the forecast period, but become northwest after the wave
moves past the area. Winds will be light overnight, but become
gusty tomorrow as the pcpn moves through, then becoming light
again tomorrow evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE ON ANY ONE DAY SO STUCK
WITH THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO FLOW
FROM THE GULF AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP EACH DAY AND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MOSTLY VFR THROUGHOUT...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE
21-02Z OR SO TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
/NEAR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY REPORTED NEAR KBMG SHOULD MOVE OUT
QUICKLY/.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z. OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH THE RAIN SHOW MAINLY VFR SO WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE TAFS.
BEHIND THE RAIN WILL COME A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING. FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL KEEP
FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY VALID TIME AND WILL GUSTS AROUND 22KT
WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MOSTLY VFR THROUGHOUT...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE
21-02Z OR SO TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
/NEAR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY REPORTED NEAR KBMG SHOULD MOVE OUT
QUICKLY/.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z. OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH THE RAIN SHOW MAINLY VFR SO WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE TAFS.
BEHIND THE RAIN WILL COME A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING. FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL KEEP
FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY VALID TIME AND WILL GUSTS AROUND 22KT
WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO IFR SHOULD EXIT
THE KIND AREA AROUND 15Z. NEXT AREA OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING OF THIS RAIN LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KIND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. APPEARS ANY THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF KIND THIS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THIS TO ADVECT INTO THE KIND
VICINITY LATER THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FALLEN WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER FROM KBMG AND
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAF AS THIS
SITE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR
LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FALLEN WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER FROM KBMG AND
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAF AS THIS
SITE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR
LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND
BE INTO PA BY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AT THE LATEST AND SKIES LOOK TO
QUICKLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE STATE. LEANED TOWARD THE 03.07Z HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.
MAY SEE A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15000-20000
FEET BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO DRASTICALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SEEMS POSSIBLE AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-3C SOUTH TO AROUND -8C NORTH WITH THE COLDER FORECAST MODEL BEING
THE GFS. STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE DECENT MIXING AND
THE CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE CAA. THE SUN ANGLE
AND DRY AIR HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
TUE SOUTH.
AN EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY MONDAY. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL SEND OUT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THREAT WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTH...HOWEVER THE MAJOR CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE KEPT TO
THE SOUTH OF STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MCW AND DSM WILL BE ALL VFR BY 19Z AND ALO AND OTM BY
20Z...ALL SITES WILL THEN BE VFR THROUGH REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AROUND 15KTS
AND GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS APR 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND
BE INTO PA BY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AT THE LATEST AND SKIES LOOK TO
QUICKLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE STATE. LEANED TOWARD THE 03.07Z HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.
MAY SEE A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15000-20000
FEET BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO DRASTICALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SEEMS POSSIBLE AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-3C SOUTH TO AROUND -8C NORTH WITH THE COLDER FORECAST MODEL BEING
THE GFS. STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE DECENT MIXING AND
THE CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE CAA. THE SUN ANGLE
AND DRY AIR HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
TUE SOUTH.
AN EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY MONDAY. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL SEND OUT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THREAT WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTH...HOWEVER THE MAJOR CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE KEPT TO
THE SOUTH OF STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AROUND CURRENTLY...AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING KOTM. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A VCSH AROUND SUNRISE. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SINK INTO THE
CWA WITH SOME MVFR CIGS...OR LOW VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
TO CLEAR FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET AND
BACKING AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS APR 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
REMOVED ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECASTS TODAY. LATEST
NAM SHOWS GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 20-30
KNOTS AT BOTH SITES FROM 15Z-18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST NAM INCREASED SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED DEW POINTS. THIS IS REASONABLE. EVEN WITH RECENT
RAIN/SNOW...EXPECT ONE HOUR FINE FUELS TO RECOVER QUICKLY...SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 MB quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 KTS of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Low level clouds
around 3KT will continue to scatter out more as the afternoon
progresses, with skies becoming clear at 01 UTC. Gusty winds will
prevail throughout the afternoon, slowly coming to an end tonight as
the pressure gradient begins to relax. Tomorrow, expect winds to
pick up once again from the southwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
REMOVED ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECASTS TODAY. LATEST
NAM SHOWS GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KGLD AND KMCK AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST NAM INCREASED SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED DEW POINTS. THIS IS REASONABLE. EVEN WITH RECENT
RAIN/SNOW...EXPECT ONE HOUR FINE FUELS TO RECOVER QUICKLY...SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KGLD AND KMCK AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
605 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 MB quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 KTS of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Mid level frontogenesis and apparent conditional symmetric
instability has helped a narrow band of TS to form west of TOP and
FOE. This could bring some brief small hail to the terminals.
Still expect mid level drying to eventually bring an end to the
precip by the late morning. NAM and RAP continue to show some MVFR
CIGS moving in this morning and this appears to be reasonable
given up stream OBS showing CIGS between 1000 and 2000 FT. This
should scatter out as the precip ends. Think VFR conditions will
prevail for the afternoon and overnight tonight as a cool dry
ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
As a surface ridge of high pressure builds into central and
eastern KS today, dry air is expected to cause RH values to fall
between 20 and 30 percent across north central KS. Additionally
northwest winds will remain breezy with occasional gusts around 30
MPH through the afternoon. This will lead to very high fire danger
across north central KS today.
Very high fire danger conditions are likely for much of northeast
Kansas Saturday afternoon. With a dry airmass in place from the
departing surface high and strong mixing of drier air in the
boundary layer, minimum humidity values may easily fall to the 15 to
25 percent range, with the lowest readings over north central
Kansas. In addition widespread southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are anticipated across the area. Portions of
north central Kansas may reach red flag warning criteria and have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...IFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z OR
SO. WINDS NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. 11Z-15Z MOST PRECIP MOVES SOUTH
OF THE TERMINAL WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...CIGS
RISE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. VFR CIGS ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS THROUGH 00Z THEN NO
GUSTS EXPECTED. AFTER 02Z WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 11Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM THE NORTH. 12Z-15Z
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY 15Z PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS IN THE 15Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 mb quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chc of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Kept going forecast with rain showers coming in to terminals over
the next few hours. Guidance also still suggests rain exiting mid
morning with MVFR cigs in its wake. Expect to clear mid to late
afternoon with winds diminishing through evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
As a surface ridge of high pressure builds into central and eastern
KS today, dry air is expected to cause RH values to fall between 20
and 30 percent across north central KS. Additionally northwest winds
will remain breezy with occasional gusts around 30 MPH through the
afternoon. This will lead to very high fire danger across north
central KS today.
Very high fire danger conditions are likely for much of northeast
Kansas Saturday afternoon. With a dry airmass in place from the
departing surface high and strong mixing of drier air in the
boundary layer, minimum humidity values may easily fall to the 15 to
25 percent range, with the lowest readings over north central
Kansas. In addition widespread southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are anticipated across the area. Portions of
north central Kansas may reach red flag warning criteria and have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO CANCEL THE DUST STORM WARNING
AND TO ADJUST WORDING IN FORECAST TO SHOW MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN ZONES AS TEMPS NOW IN LOW 30S...BUT KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL WARM
ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...IFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z OR
SO. WINDS NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. 11Z-15Z MOST PRECIP MOVES SOUTH
OF THE TERMINAL WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...CIGS
RISE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. VFR CIGS ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS THROUGH 00Z THEN NO
GUSTS EXPECTED. AFTER 02Z WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 11Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM THE NORTH. 12Z-15Z
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY 15Z PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS IN THE 15Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
528 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING WAS DROPPED AS THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES IS PULLING
TO THE EAST. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR 3KM
MODEL. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE 32F W/JUST RAIN BEING REPORTED. WE RECEIVED
SOME ICING REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE
NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS PICKED UP ON THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WELL DEPICTING
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP ON THE WARM OCCLUSION THIS MORNING AS SEEN BY THE LAPS DATA
WHICH IMPEDED A FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE WARMER AIR AND HENCE
HOLDING THE COLDER TEMPS IN A WHILE LONGER. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOW-UP IN THE WARMING THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING.
THE OCCLUSION/WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING W/RAIN ENDING AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
TO THE SURFACE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT TEMPERATURES BUSTING 50F
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LINCOLN-DOVER-FOXCROFT AREA DUE TO A LOW
CLOUD DECK THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM12 AND EVEN THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS DECK LOOKS AS THOUGH IT HANGS ON THROUGH 18Z(2PM)
AND THEN BREAKS UP ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. DECIDED TO BRING
AFTERNOON MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST,
SUNSHINE WILL BREAK THROUGH AND W/A WSW FLOW DEVELOPING AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL ENOUGH THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 50S
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS FROM HITTING 50F DUE TO
COLDER WATER TEMPS.
TONIGHT BECOMES THE CHALLENGE AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRES ORGANIZING
OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COLDER AIR WILL
SEEP INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION WILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN TEMPS COOL DOWN
AS THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND LOW PRES RIDES NE. PRECIP IS
FORECAST TO BREAK OUT LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE WSW AREAS
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHILE NORTHERN & WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP SET UP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY W/UP TO 0.40" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL &
DOWNEAST AREAS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE AREAS SUCH AS
DOVER-FOXCROFT AND LINCOLN WILL SEE < 1 INCH. THE BANGOR-CALAIS
REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY AS RAIN. ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST DUE TO THE WARMING
AND MELTING OF SNOW. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR RIVERS AND STREAM
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENT STORM FOR SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO NOVA SCOTIA, COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW
FOR DOWNEAST. THIS MARKED THE LARGEST CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...THE QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR DOWNEAST DURING THE
MORNING AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
FORECAST DOWNEAST. CHANGES FURTHER NORTH WERE FAIRLY SMALL.
LOOKING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL TOUGH TO
PINPOINT THE WINNERS FOR SNOW WITH THIS STORM...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE
CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONE COMPLICATING
FACTOR TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE MARGINAL TEMPS AND THE FACT
THAT A LOT OF THE SNOW WILL BE COMING DURING THE DAY WHICH ALWAYS
MAKES IT TOUGH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER,
BELIEVE THAT SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE FAIRLY EASILY MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON EASTER
SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHAT PART OF THE
AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION, SO HELD ONTO JUST A
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERALLY COLD PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT, BUT THERE COULD BE SNOW AT
SOME POINT WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY BEING IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERHAPS SOME WARMING WITH RAIN OR A
MIX THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SEEING
SOME -FZRA THIS MORNING. CONDITION WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON W/VFR MAINLY S OF KHUL AS A 2500 FOOT DECK
COULD HANG A WHILE LONGER FROM KHUL ON NORTH. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS
SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE SATURDAY WITH SNOW, OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW DOWNEAST. GUSTY WINDS TOO FROM THE NORTHWEST. PROBABLY
IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN MVFR SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS MERIT WATCHING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWMELT ACROSS THE HSA. ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST SUCH AS THE KINGSBURY STREAM, PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS. A BATCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT WILL ADD TO RUNOFF AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
RISES. ATTM, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH 18Z AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE COME UP
TO 25 KTS AND 6 FT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS MORNING, BUT
SEAS COULD STAY UP A WHILE LONGER DUE TO A SOUTHERLY SWELL
COMPONENT. SEAS COULD STAY UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP
OFF. DECIDED TO STAY W/3-6 FOOT WAVES FOR NOW INTO TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS GENERALLY AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
THEN LIKELY DIMINISHING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE
SATURDAY, THEN GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 FEET THROUGHOUT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR EARLY AND MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FROM
DAMAGING STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SHEAR IS
THERE...AND INSTABILITY SEEMS PROMISING ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL VA
AND S MD. AS FOR INSTIGATORS...THERE ARE 3 WAVES EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADAR...ONE OVER CENTRAL MD AND NOVA...TWO ENTERING W
WV...AND 3 OVER INDIANA. BASED ON THE LATEST MESO MODELING...JUST
ABOUT ALL ARE FORECASTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ALL DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE. BASED
ON TEMPS AND DWPTS RIGHT NOW...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH
HAS CONSISTENTLY PLACED THAT IN CENTRAL VA AND S MD. THAT
SAID...IT HAS BEEN WEAKER WITH IT RECENTLY. THE NAM FIRE WX NEST
WAS SQUARE OVER DC/BALT METROS...AND THE NSSL WRF WAS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN. THE RISK IS THERE...WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT IT OUT AND
SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. OUR ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS HAIL AND TORNADO. NO WATCH OR EVEN WATCH
DISCUSSIONS AT THIS POINT HERE.
COLD FRONT GOES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE AT HIGHER ELEVATION. ANY FRACTION OF AN INCH ACCUM
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLEARING AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SAT
NIGHT AS THE CENTER TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS TO THE EAST...BUILDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP TO
CLEAR THE SKIES. THE CLEARING SKIES...COMBINING WITH CALMING WINDS
AND ALONG WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
DRY WX CONTINUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH NUDGES EAST...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING
ZONAL FLOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD INCREASE SKY COVERAGE NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON DURING THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING NEAR SEASONAL
DAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 60S. WITH THE HIGH POSITIONED
OFFSHORE...RETURN FLOW WILL INJECT IN WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR...WITH
LOWS SUN NIGHT ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON AND OFF THE ENTIRE
WEEK...BUT IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT WASH OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN BECOMING VFR LATE
TONIGHT. ANY TSRA THAT HIT A TAF SITE WOULD OF COURSE OFFER A
BRIEF DOWNGRADE TO IFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. ALSO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL
AND EVEN A TORNADO WITH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SFC
WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORN AT
SOME TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT - SUN NIGHT. COULD SEE GUST UP TO 20 KTS
SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW.
S TO SW WIND 10-15 KTS MON BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE MON
NIGHT...THEN SE AROUND 10 KTS TUE. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOP WITH A FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT GOES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GOOD GUST OF WIND AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. EXPECT GALE FORCE ON THE WATERS N OF
DRUM POINT WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO THE S AND ON THE POTOMAC.
OBVIOUSLY THAT LINE COULD WAVER SLIGHTLY N OR S AS WE NEAR THE
EVENT. WINDS SHOULD RECEDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADV LEVELS BY SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE.
ANY LINGERING SCA GUSTS SAT EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUN MORNING.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS BY MIDDAY SUN...GENERALLY 18-20 KTS...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. A FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
LIKELY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534>537-
542-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...CAS/SEARS/DFH
MARINE...CAS/SEARS/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
837 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...SHIFTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS DRY RIGHT
NOW. 06Z NAM/11Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THAT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES PAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUE IT/S SLOW ADVANCEMENT THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A DEVELOPING SURFACE
WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIMITED...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES MAY
BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER SO
WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH AS IS. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO PREFER A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE
ECMWF QPF.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF I 80 ON SUNDAY...AND A
BETTER CHANCE BY LATE MONDAY AREA WIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING A BLEND OF
THE LATEST SREF AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARRED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO STALL OVER THE
REGION AND SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CROSSING DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL...TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH DISPUTES ARISING LATE IN
THE WEEK IN DEPICTIONS OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE I 70
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ALONG THAT
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ANY CONDITION IMPROVEMENT AS IT SPREADS RAIN
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT GENERAL MVFR...WITH PERIODIC IFR INTO
TONIGHT WHEN COLD ADVECTION WILL CHANGE DIMINISHING RAIN TO SNOW.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS. MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A
SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A STARK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION.
EXPECT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96... BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH.
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN EASTWARD TO THE
WEST CENTRAL CWA BY 07Z OR SO. THIS TIMING IS ON TRACK WITH THE
GOING FORECAST AND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF TOO. NO CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES OR FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-96... FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST... BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCLEAR.
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL MN TO SE LWR MI AND A JET
STREAK WILL FUEL A POTENTIALLY INTENSE BUT NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB REGION. WHILE HIGHER
RES MODEL QPF PROGS ARE CLEARLY RESPONDING TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE... THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF THE
HIGHER QPF.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM
LUDINGTON TO REED CITY TO MT PLEASANT... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS TO BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH NOW GO OUT TO 09Z ARE SUGGESTING A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NORTH
OF I-96 MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT. P TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF A
BIG RAPIDS TO MT PLEASANT LINE.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF I-96 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT MILD SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT...WITH GULF ORIGINS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE A DRIER...COOLER FEED OF AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT AN UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COULD EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS I-94.
OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...VERY SPRING LIKE. WE
WILL BE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL MOSTLY
MISS ALL OF OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO I KEEP THE RAIN
(TO WARM FOR SNOW) IN MKG FOR A FEW HOURS..BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND
I BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THERE. LANSING MAY BE TOUCHED BY
THE RAIN AROUND 12Z BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THERE. ALL AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FOR MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF MKG AS A FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1026 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z AND 01Z UPDATES OF THE NAM/HRRR/RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE 18Z-21Z RUNS...WHICH IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHERN IA AND THIS SHOULD RACE
EAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER.
ANOTHER TREND WAS THE LOWER QPF WITH ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS SINCE
18Z FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE MAXIMUM BAND TO MORE LIKE TWO
TENTHS. THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR THAT
HAS TO BE OVERCOME FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT DVN...GRB...APX AND
DTX. ALL OF THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIP WATERS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF .25 INCHES. WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA...SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FROM THE LAKE AND
THAT COULD HELP GET THAT INITIAL VIRGA TO START REACHING THE
GROUND A LITTLE QUICKER. STILL WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR A QUICK
BURST OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW RIGHT AT DAYBREAK.
ALSO WITH THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET DOWN TO THE I-69
CORRIDOR...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS AT 925 AND THE SURFACE WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN THAT I-69 CORRIDOR. WILL INTRODUCE SOME MIX
RAIN AND SNOW THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 711 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL COMPONENT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TEMPORARILY DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE MID CLOUD STREAMS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THAT
SYSTEM WILL FOCUS ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
FOR THE DETROIT AREA TAFS...NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT MID CLOUD
EXPECTED. HOWEVER FOR FNT AND MBS EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL 1500 TO
2500 FEET WITH SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z.
FOR DTW...EXPECT WINDS WILL TO CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THEY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS
BY 02-03Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB REGION ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME
AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROVEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS PRECIP FREE ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. THE INCREASING TRENDS
NOTED ON THE RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE THUMB REGION SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PEAK IN WIND
SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM... OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UNBALANCED
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS POCKET OF MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
WILL IMPINGE INTO THE PRE-EXISTING...BUT RATHER FLAT...THETA-E
GRADIENT IN THE 925-600MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
WILL FORCE SATURATION TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE. THE SATURATION WILL QUICKLY CATALYZE THE THETA-E FIELD INTO A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE. THE RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL FORCE
A NARROW...YET ROBUST...AGEOSTROPHIC SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NWP SUITE PRESENTS THIS DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ABNORMALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLUTION
VARIANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC
STRUCTURE.
AVAILABLE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL SATURATION AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC RESPONSE.
THE REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE SOURCE OF THE NWP
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE. THE 04.12Z NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A FARTHER SOUTH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 8F TOO MOIST IN THE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CMC FAMILY...
GFS...AND LATEST ECMWF ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED -
BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE RAP AND HRRR SEQUENCE HAS BEEN STEADY WITH AN EVEN FARTHER NORTH
DEPICTION AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PWAT ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION DEPICTION...SATURATION OCCURS IN THE SUB-FREEZING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SNOW TO DOMINATE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES WHERE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...REDUCED WET
BULBING...AND PARTIAL SATURATION ALLOW FOR SOME LIQUID DEVELOP.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LATERAL MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
ONCE IT INITIATES. CONSEQUENTLY...APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
BECOMES A CONCERN. THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS /WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED/. FARTHER SOUTH...
DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRACTS
DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENTED FORCING IN
THE CONTEXT OF MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG AND ROUGHLY AN 8 HOUR
DURATION...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN THE 2-3+ INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS
CONVERTING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM - PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES. THE
COLUMN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. THE EMERGENCE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM COLLAPSES THE NEAR
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ICING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE OVERALL DEPICTION...SO WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT AT THE MOMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. LATEST
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE CWA IN TERMS OF
OVERALL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN ACCOUNT BUT
OVERALL... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS/ ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS LOWER MI ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TUES INTO WED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....MANN/SS
MARINE.......MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
853 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A STARK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION.
EXPECT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96... BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH.
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN EASTWARD TO THE
WEST CENTRAL CWA BY 07Z OR SO. THIS TIMING IS ON TRACK WITH THE
GOING FORECAST AND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SREF TOO. NO CHANGES
TO THE HEADLINES OR FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-96... FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST... BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCLEAR.
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL MN TO SE LWR MI AND A JET
STREAK WILL FUEL A POTENTIALLY INTENSE BUT NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB REGION. WHILE HIGHER
RES MODEL QPF PROGS ARE CLEARLY RESPONDING TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE... THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF THE
HIGHER QPF.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM
LUDINGTON TO REED CITY TO MT PLEASANT... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS TO BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH NOW GO OUT TO 09Z ARE SUGGESTING A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NORTH
OF I-96 MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT. P TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF A
BIG RAPIDS TO MT PLEASANT LINE.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF I-96 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT MILD SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT...WITH GULF ORIGINS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE A DRIER...COOLER FEED OF AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT AN UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COULD EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS I-94.
OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...VERY SPRING LIKE. WE
WILL BE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GRR TAF SITES WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN IT GETS TRICKY AS TO HOW THE NEXT
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT OVER OUR CWA. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION BAND GETS IS OUR PRIMARY QUESTION.
THE LAST 12 RUNS OF THE HRRR AND AT LEAST THE LAST 6 RUNS OF THE
RAP MODEL (DPROG/DT) IN A ROW... FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY HAVE
THE PRECIPITATION BAND FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. FOR EXAMPLE
THE 16Z RUN OF THE HRRR HAD THE PRECIPITATION BAND AT 07Z FROM
NEAR MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO GREEN BAY TO NEAR CADILLAC. BY THE TIME
OF THE 21Z RUN OF THE MODEL THE PRECIPITATION BAND WAS FROM
LITTLE SABLE POINT TO NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO STEVENS POINT WISCONSIN.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS AND RADAR LOOPS SEEMS THE STRONGEST
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR MSP. I WOULD EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO REACH AT LEAST THE MUSKEGON TAF SITE...THE GRR
TAF SITE AND THE LAN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH OVER TIME SO ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD HAVE NO PRECIPITATION BY 15Z OR SO. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
AN ISSUE TOO...BUT AT THIS POINT MODEL SOUNDING LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN... BUT IT IS CLOSE TO I PUT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW FOR NOW AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LANSING WOULD
SEEM TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN...AT LEAST TILL 12Z. I EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CAUSING THIS
ALL TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY SO I EXPECT THE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z OR SO.
THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FOR MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF MKG AS A FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
802 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A STARK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION.
EXPECT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96... BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH.
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-96... FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST... BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCLEAR.
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL MN TO SE LWR MI AND A JET
STREAK WILL FUEL A POTENTIALLY INTENSE BUT NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB REGION. WHILE HIGHER
RES MODEL QPF PROGS ARE CLEARLY RESPONDING TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE... THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF THE
HIGHER QPF.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM
LUDINGTON TO REED CITY TO MT PLEASANT... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS TO BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH NOW GO OUT TO 09Z ARE SUGGESTING A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NORTH
OF I-96 MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT. P TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF A
BIG RAPIDS TO MT PLEASANT LINE.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF I-96 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT MILD SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT...WITH GULF ORIGINS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE A DRIER...COOLER FEED OF AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT AN UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COULD EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS I-94.
OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...VERY SPRING LIKE. WE
WILL BE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GRR TAF SITES WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING. I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THEN IT GETS TRICKY AS TO HOW THE NEXT
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT OVER OUR CWA. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION BAND GETS IS OUR PRIMARY QUESTION.
THE LAST 12 RUNS OF THE HRRR AND AT LEAST THE LAST 6 RUNS OF THE
RAP MODEL (DPROG/DT) IN A ROW... FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY HAVE
THE PRECIPITATION BAND FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. FOR EXAMPLE
THE 16Z RUN OF THE HRRR HAD THE PRECIPITATION BAND AT 07Z FROM
NEAR MEDFORD WISCONSIN TO GREEN BAY TO NEAR CADILLAC. BY THE TIME
OF THE 21Z RUN OF THE MODEL THE PRECIPITATION BAND WAS FROM
LITTLE SABLE POINT TO NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO STEVENS POINT WISCONSIN.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE TRENDS AND RADAR LOOPS SEEMS THE STRONGEST
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR MSP. I WOULD EXPECT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TO REACH AT LEAST THE MUSKEGON TAF SITE...THE GRR
TAF SITE AND THE LAN TAF SITES IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH OVER TIME SO ALL TAF SITES
SHOULD HAVE NO PRECIPITATION BY 15Z OR SO. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
AN ISSUE TOO...BUT AT THIS POINT MODEL SOUNDING LOOK JUST WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN... BUT IT IS CLOSE TO I PUT MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW FOR NOW AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS. LANSING WOULD
SEEM TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING MORE SNOW THAN
RAIN...AT LEAST TILL 12Z. I EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CAUSING THIS
ALL TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY SO I EXPECT THE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 16Z OR SO.
THE I-94 TAF SITES ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FOR MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF MKG AS A FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-051-052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL COMPONENT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TEMPORARILY DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE MID CLOUD STREAMS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THAT
SYSTEM WILL FOCUS ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI.
FOR THE DETROIT AREA TAFS...NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT MID CLOUD
EXPECTED. HOWEVER FOR FNT AND MBS EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL 1500 TO
2500 FEET WITH SNOW DROPING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z.
FOR DTW...EXPECT WINDS WILL TO CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THEY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS
BY 02-03Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB REGION ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME
AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROVEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS PRECIP FREE ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. THE INCREASING TRENDS
NOTED ON THE RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE THUMB REGION SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PEAK IN WIND
SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM... OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UNBALANCED
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS POCKET OF MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
WILL IMPINGE INTO THE PRE-EXISTING...BUT RATHER FLAT...THETA-E
GRADIENT IN THE 925-600MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
WILL FORCE SATURATION TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE. THE SATURATION WILL QUICKLY CATALYZE THE THETA-E FIELD INTO A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE. THE RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL FORCE
A NARROW...YET ROBUST...AGEOSTROPHIC SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NWP SUITE PRESENTS THIS DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ABNORMALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLUTION
VARIANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC
STRUCTURE.
AVAILABLE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL SATURATION AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC RESPONSE.
THE REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE SOURCE OF THE NWP
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE. THE 04.12Z NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A FARTHER SOUTH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 8F TOO MOIST IN THE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CMC FAMILY...
GFS...AND LATEST ECMWF ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED -
BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE RAP AND HRRR SEQUENCE HAS BEEN STEADY WITH AN EVEN FARTHER NORTH
DEPICTION AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PWAT ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION DEPICTION...SATURATION OCCURS IN THE SUB-FREEZING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SNOW TO DOMINATE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES WHERE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...REDUCED WET
BULBING...AND PARTIAL SATURATION ALLOW FOR SOME LIQUID DEVELOP.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LATERAL MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
ONCE IT INITIATES. CONSEQUENTLY...APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
BECOMES A CONCERN. THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS /WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED/. FARTHER SOUTH...
DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRACTS
DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENTED FORCING IN
THE CONTEXT OF MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG AND ROUGHLY AN 8 HOUR
DURATION...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN THE 2-3+ INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS
CONVERTING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM - PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES. THE
COLUMN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. THE EMERGENCE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM COLLAPSES THE NEAR
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ICING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE OVERALL DEPICTION...SO WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT AT THE MOMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. LATEST
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE CWA IN TERMS OF
OVERALL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN ACCOUNT BUT
OVERALL... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS/ ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS LOWER MI ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TUES INTO WED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....MANN/SS
MARINE.......MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A
NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PCT) WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL
IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
PER PAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER WI WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 250-300
MB JET MAX E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/NAM MODEL BLEND AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SCNTRL UPPER MI. HAVE DECIDED TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA RANGING FROM LESS THAN .10
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TO NEAR .20 INCH AT KMNM. GIVEN
NEAR 10 TO 1 SLR/S EXPECTED COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS JUST INLAND
FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI AND OVER THE FAR EAST.
MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE NRN LAKES MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MOST OF THE MODELS ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MON AS A CONFLUENT FLOW INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE
DOMINANT SFC RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES. ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF
WILL BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MI LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN CWA.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM ITS
PREV COUPLE OF RUNS. AFTER SHOWING STRONGER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON INTO TUE...IT THEN EJECTS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS TROF NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE WED INTO THU. IN TURN...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI THAN PREV RUNS. THIS
SOLN BRINGS AN AREA OF WAA PCPN INTO UPPER MI MAINLY WED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THU. ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PCPN COULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE IF MODEL TRENDS WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A WETTER FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS BOTH THE GFS
AND GEM-NH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS SHOWING A SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING
SE INTO UPPER MI PER SATELLITE AND OBS. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
AT KIWD/KCMX OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TODAY WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT AT
KIWD/KCMX IN THE AFTN AND AT KSAW EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1038 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE MORNING
FLURRIES FROM MN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT
SAT TRENDS...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER NRN
WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE LOWERED RH VALUES BY ABOUT 5 PERCENT TODAY AS THE 12Z INL
SOUNDING DEPICTED A LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR POSITIONED JUST ABOVE
900 MB/4000FT. ALTHOUGH AFTRN TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MIXING
TO BRING RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINTS WITH RH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER
TEENS/20S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
IN THE 15-18KT RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
AT 330 AM...COLDER AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TO THE LOWER 30S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA TODAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN END TO THE
FLURRIES AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE TROUGH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW
SHOWER. MOS TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT AND WE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT
DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW FAR WE
ARE WILLING TO DROP TEMPS FOR NOW.
WILL MENTION VERY SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH FAIRLY SMALL POPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE
ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO/NEAR THE NORTHLAND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH MONDAY.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...MAINLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF WITH THE 00Z
RUNS.
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE WAS
CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD KBRD. SATELLITE AND THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THESE
CLEARING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WHEN CEILINGS FROM 4-7KFT MOVE BACK IN. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT FEEL THE CHANCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THIS SET OF TAFS OUTSIDE OF KHYR. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 42 25 / 10 20 20 20
INL 34 14 35 14 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 39 24 50 26 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 40 19 52 24 / 10 30 20 20
ASX 38 21 46 23 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
AT 330 AM...COLDER AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TO THE LOWER 30S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA TODAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN END TO THE
FLURRIES AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE TROUGH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW
SHOWER. MOS TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT AND WE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT
DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW FAR WE
ARE WILLING TO DROP TEMPS FOR NOW.
WILL MENTION VERY SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH FAIRLY SMALL POPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE
ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO/NEAR THE NORTHLAND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH MONDAY.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...MAINLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF WITH THE 00Z
RUNS.
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE WAS
CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD KBRD. SATELLITE AND THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THESE
CLEARING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WHEN CEILINGS FROM 4-7KFT MOVE BACK IN. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT FEEL THE CHANCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THIS SET OF TAFS OUTSIDE OF KHYR. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 24 42 25 / 10 30 20 20
INL 34 15 35 14 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 39 23 50 26 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 40 23 52 24 / 10 30 20 20
ASX 38 24 46 23 / 10 30 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Precipitation will begin to work through the terminals area
overnight, with nearby isolated thunderstorms possible until the
early morning hours. Residual light precip may remain in the wake of
the activity as it pushes to the east, particularly at KSTJ. Strong
winds will back through the period, with gusts near 25 kts becoming
a factor until Friday evening. Cloud cover will begin to lift toward
the end of the period with winds gradually weakening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
351 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... DEWPOINTS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE... HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE RATHER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS... UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMANATING FROM DISSIPATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE SPC PAGE SHOWING SOME MUCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS EXPECTED
IT WOULD BE GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A
BAND OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE LATEST (GENERALLY EXITING IN A NW TO SE FASHION).
LOWS TONIGHT... DRIVEN BY CAA... WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE MID 60S SE (WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL NEAR 12Z... SE
THAT IS).
SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY... WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... TO NEAR 70 SE. GIVEN THE
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE... WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATED IN THE
NORTHERN FROZEN NORTHERN LATITUDES... IT IS COLD AND DRY. WINDS WILL
DIE OFF BY SUNSET ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES... LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 30-35... WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE A HARD FREEZE LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED JUST A WEEK AGO...
(MARCH 29)... BUT READINGS BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
APPEAR LIKELY AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
STARTS FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN ON SUNDAY MORNING (APRIL
5). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS OF 65-70.
A RAPID MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE... THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS IN
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO ONE IN
WHICH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN READINGS MAY
VERY WELL STAY 60+ OR EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEARS NORMALS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS (LIGHT) CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT... AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS... RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE
BIGGEST NEWS WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREATS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL
NC). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN POP AND EVEN THUNDER
CHANCES BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED SSW TO SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH SHORT-LIVED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
BETWEEN 06-15Z SAT...EARLIEST AT INT AND LATEST AT FAY. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE
17 TO 22 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR AREA TERMINALS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NW OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING ONWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
VFR AND (NORTHWESTERLY) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY/NEAR SUNSET. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE TRACE OR NIL ON AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. WITH THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALREADY DRY AND FIRES
REPORTED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NC THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS... IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS OF 30-35 ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME 15-20
PERCENT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 1000 AM
AND 800 PM SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/RAH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS... WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... DEWPOINTS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE... HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE RATHER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS... UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMANATING FROM DISSIPATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE SPC PAGE SHOWING SOME MUCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS EXPECTED
IT WOULD BE GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A
BAND OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE LATEST (GENERALLY EXITING IN A NW TO SE FASHION).
LOWS TONIGHT... DRIVEN BY CAA... WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE MID 60S SE (WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL NEAR 12Z... SE
THAT IS).
SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY... WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... TO NEAR 70 SE. GIVEN THE
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE... WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATED IN THE
NORTHERN FROZEN NORTHERN LATITUDES... IT IS COLD AND DRY. WINDS WILL
DIE OFF BY SUNSET ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES... LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 30-35... WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE A HARD FREEZE LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED JUST A WEEK AGO...
(MARCH 29)... BUT READINGS BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
APPEAR LIKELY AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
STARTS FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN ON SUNDAY MORNING (APRIL
5). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS OF 65-70.
A RAPID MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE... THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS IN
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO ONE IN
WHICH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN READINGS MAY
VERY WELL STAY 60+ OR EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEARS NORMALS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS (LIGHT) CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT... AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS... RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE
BIGGEST NEWS WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREATS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL
NC). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN POP AND EVEN THUNDER
CHANCES BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE TRACE OR NIL ON AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. WITH THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALREADY DRY AND FIRES
REPORTED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NC THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS... IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS OF 30-35 ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME 15-20
PERCENT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 1000 AM
AND 800 PM SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED SSW TO SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH SHORT-LIVED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
BETWEEN 06-15Z SAT...EARLIEST AT INT AND LATEST AT FAY. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE
17 TO 22 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR AREA TERMINALS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NW OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING ONWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
VFR AND (NORTHWESTERLY) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY/NEAR SUNSET. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/RAH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT/RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND IS
PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A
WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I WRITE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A
MARINE INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY
ACROSS LAKE WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC
MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW
OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND IS
PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A
WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I WRITE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A
MARINE INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY
ACROSS LAKE WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC
MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW
OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
738 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST AND IS PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I
WRITE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT
HAS ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A MARINE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 30
MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY ACROSS LAKE
WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DEFINITELY A
MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
...DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24
HOURS AGO IS NOW OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE
TO AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST AND IS PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I
WRITE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT
HAS ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A MARINE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 30
MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY ACROSS LAKE
WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DEFINITELY A
MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DYING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AFFECTING THE FLO/MYR/CRE AIRPORTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY...AND THEN INLAND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24
HOURS AGO IS NOW OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE
TO AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER S CNTRL ND ADVECTING
EAST A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO INCREASED SKY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z...SO NO
CHANGES MADE TO POPS. OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TOWNER COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING AREA LOOKING MINIMAL. NAM DOES SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BAND
ALONG I94 CORRIDOR SUN NIGHT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS UPDATE UNTIL
NEW GFS DATA COMES IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT
CLOUD BAND OVER NORTHEAST ND SHOWING STRIATED APPEARANCE AND
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TO DISSIPATE AS SUN GOES
DOWN...HOWEVER A BIT MOVE OVERCAST ACROSS TOWNER AND CAVALIER
COUNTIES. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT LOWS IF THEY STAY
TOGETHER...HOWEVER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
SHOULD HELP ERODE THIS AREA UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD CIGS OVER SW MB
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. USED TEMP BIASED TRENDS FOR NEW OVERNIGHT
CURVE...WHICH BRINGS COLDER AIR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE CHILLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HRRR DOES BRING
SOME PRECIP INTO TOWNER COUNTY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS NOT
MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE FEW ECHOES ON RADAR THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE KDVL REGION
ERODED AS THEY MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT MUCH
LEFT ON RADAR UPSTREAM SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
ONLY THING THAT REMAINS IS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN BACK
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS LOWS WILL
DEPEND HIGHLY ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF
ON THE SUNDAY PCPN BAND. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING GETTING
CLOSE TO THE FA UNTIL AFTER 18Z. AT THAT POINT THE 12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ONLY BRING A GLANCING SHOT TO THE KDVL REGION. HOW
THINGS EVOLVE FROM THEN ARE STILL PRETTY MUDDLED. HOWEVER THE
TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR ANOTHER BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA AND HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND AND HIGHWAY 10 IN MN. HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WOULD BE MUCH FOR PCPN AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY THE MOST ROBUST...SHOWING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY CONTINUES INTO TUE. 12Z
GFS/NAM SHOW ANOTHER PCPN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. GFS SHOWS
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY. MAINTAINED SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO AVOID FLIP
FLOPPING IN THE FORECAST AND WILL HOPE LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY QPF. THERE COULD BE A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE
SOUTH LATE THU INTO SAT...THAT WOULD BRING RAIN DURING THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL AND
HINGE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION OCCURS. AT THIS POINT THE WARMER AREAS
COULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...BUT FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST ND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT...THEN VFR CIGS SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION.
DVL COULD SEE MVFR MID SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY MENTION OF SNOW UNTIL NEW MODEL RUNS COME OUT. TREND HAS BEEN
PRECIP WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES FROM MOT TOWARD DVL...AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND FOR DVL TAF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
RADAR SIGNATURES SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BOWMAN RADAR AS WELL SHOWS SOME RETURNS THAT ARE LIKELY STILL VIRGA.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW LOW LEVEL 925 MB NEARLY SATURATED RH FIELDS
MOVE FROM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER SUNSET. ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A LARGE CIRRUS FIELD IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE STATE. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER AT ESTEVAN BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE
MORES NORTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS TO DELAY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LATEST HRRR DOES INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 03Z NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA TO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST EXTENDING BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SKY IS CLEAR TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. ROLLA
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW NOW...ALTHOUGH WITH RADAR ECHOS ON THE
DECREASE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
ZERO IMPACTS.
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO AND
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. MODELS DEPICT THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST TO
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MY NORTH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWARD EXTENT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO AFTER 06Z.
MODELS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE...SO KEPT
POPS BELOW LIKELY WORDING THROUGH 12Z. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO OPTED TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED FOR THE 12-18Z AND 18-00Z PERIODS. WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE WE PROJECT 1 TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AND
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AND TRAVERSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE IN EACH DAY/NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY/GREAT
LAKES REGION. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORECASTING SNOW
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH EACH MODEL RUN DEPICTING
WHEN/WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...AND HENCE DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING. TODAY`S MODELS SUGGEST THAT
DURING THIS 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD (SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTN) THAT 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN...SOMETIMES MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW...DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS FROM THE 40S TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM KISN-KMOT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ADDING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z. LATE
TONIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KDIK-KBIS-KJMS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT
CLOUD BAND OVER NORTHEAST ND SHOWING STRIATED APPEARANCE AND
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TO DISSIPATE AS SUN GOES
DOWN...HOWEVER A BIT MOVE OVERCAST ACROSS TOWNER AND CAVALIER
COUNTIES. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT LOWS IF THEY STAY
TOGETHER...HOWEVER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
SHOULD HELP ERODE THIS AREA UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD CIGS OVER SW MB
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. USED TEMP BIASED TRENDS FOR NEW OVERNIGHT
CURVE...WHICH BRINGS COLDER AIR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE CHILLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HRRR DOES BRING
SOME PRECIP INTO TOWNER COUNTY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS NOT
MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE FEW ECHOES ON RADAR THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE KDVL REGION
ERODED AS THEY MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT MUCH
LEFT ON RADAR UPSTREAM SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
ONLY THING THAT REMAINS IS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN BACK
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS LOWS WILL
DEPEND HIGHLY ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF
ON THE SUNDAY PCPN BAND. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING GETTING
CLOSE TO THE FA UNTIL AFTER 18Z. AT THAT POINT THE 12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ONLY BRING A GLANCING SHOT TO THE KDVL REGION. HOW
THINGS EVOLVE FROM THEN ARE STILL PRETTY MUDDLED. HOWEVER THE
TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR ANOTHER BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA AND HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND AND HIGHWAY 10 IN MN. HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WOULD BE MUCH FOR PCPN AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY THE MOST ROBUST...SHOWING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY CONTINUES INTO TUE. 12Z
GFS/NAM SHOW ANOTHER PCPN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. GFS SHOWS
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY. MAINTAINED SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO AVOID FLIP
FLOPPING IN THE FORECAST AND WILL HOPE LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY QPF. THERE COULD BE A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE
SOUTH LATE THU INTO SAT...THAT WOULD BRING RAIN DURING THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL AND
HINGE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION OCCURS. AT THIS POINT THE WARMER AREAS
COULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...BUT FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST ND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT...THEN VFR CIGS SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION.
DVL COULD SEE MVFR MID SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY MENTION OF SNOW UNTIL NEW MODEL RUNS COME OUT. TREND HAS BEEN
PRECIP WILL DRY UP AS IT MOVES FROM MOT TOWARD DVL...AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT TREND FOR DVL TAF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW LOW LEVEL 925 MB NEARLY SATURATED RH FIELDS
MOVE FROM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER SUNSET. ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A LARGE CIRRUS FIELD IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE STATE. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER AT ESTEVAN BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE
MORES NORTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS TO DELAY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LATEST HRRR DOES INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 03Z NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA TO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST EXTENDING BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SKY IS CLEAR TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. ROLLA
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW NOW...ALTHOUGH WITH RADAR ECHOS ON THE
DECREASE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
ZERO IMPACTS.
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO AND
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. MODELS DEPICT THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST TO
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MY NORTH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWARD EXTENT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO AFTER 06Z.
MODELS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE...SO KEPT
POPS BELOW LIKELY WORDING THROUGH 12Z. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO OPTED TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED FOR THE 12-18Z AND 18-00Z PERIODS. WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE WE PROJECT 1 TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AND
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AND TRAVERSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE IN EACH DAY/NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY/GREAT
LAKES REGION. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORECASTING SNOW
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH EACH MODEL RUN DEPICTING
WHEN/WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...AND HENCE DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING. TODAY`S MODELS SUGGEST THAT
DURING THIS 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD (SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTN) THAT 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN...SOMETIMES MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW...DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS FROM THE 40S TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM KISN-KMOT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ADDING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 04Z. LATE
TONIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. KDIK-KBIS-KJMS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VERY DRY DEW POINTS SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 14-20 DEGREES F. STILL
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE....BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH ABOVE 20F. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE NARROW
CAPES CENTRAL AND THAT WAS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE IN BUT TRIM TO ISOLATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT WILLISTON THIS
MORNING. WILL FINE TUNE THE POPS TO TRACK THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE
EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SHOWERS...NOW MAINLY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX NORTH
HALF OF STATE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
MVFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY IMPACTING KMOT TIL 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT WILLISTON THIS
MORNING. WILL FINE TUNE THE POPS TO TRACK THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE
EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TODAY EXPECTED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY
IMPACTING KISN TIL 16Z THIS MORNING AND KMOT TIL 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
KISN...WHERE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT KISN FROM 15Z THROUGH 19Z
FRIDAY. KMOT CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. A VCSH WAS MENTIONED AT MOST
TERMINALS FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED NEAR SWIFT CURRENT AND
TRAILING BACK INTO NORTHERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS. AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH PER LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWER VFR CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS. ANTICIPATING SKIES TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES A BIT MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO
HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK AND
AROUND RUGBY TO JUST SOUTH OF MINOT. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING AND ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 7 PM AND WILL SEND
OUT AN EXPIRATION STATEMENT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL ALSO CANCEL
THE RED FLAG WARNING AT 7 PM DUE TO THE DIMINISHING WINDS AND MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE WARNED AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. REMAINING UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL ALSO
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. POTENT SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WINDS REMAIN QUITE GUSTY OVER THE AREA IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE DE-
COUPLES AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE. OTHERWISE...A
QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AS A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOTED. MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE A ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST PATTERN. A MILD DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
DEVELOPING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF/OVER THE WEST COAST...SENDING
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA - LEAVING NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTH/COLDER
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT 1-2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/MINOT/BURKE COUNTY AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FROM EASTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO MONITOR KISN/KMOT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
12Z-15Z FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. A VCSH WAS
MENTIONED AT MOST TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WILL
JUST MONITOR AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
00Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. WINDS ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING...AND CLEAR SKY IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. BY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S (ISOLATED
AREAS MAY EVEN GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RAP TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RAP AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KBJI AND KFAR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
229 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS THAT
EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SW OHIO. BLYR CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACRS ILN/S FOR NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH
LOSS OF INSTBY THIS WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES
BY LATE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...THE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FLOOD ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S FAR NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS. HAVE VCTS IN AT ALL
EXPECT KDAY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES HOWEVER BELIEVE ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AT THE
TAF SITES AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
901 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT STILL
OFFSHORE AND THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AT THE COAST. THEREFORE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AT THE COAST AND
INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMING AND FORECASTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT ALONG THE CASCADES AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE ROUGE VALLEY. WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN
MORE DETAIL. HOWEVER THE OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THIS.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...SPREADING INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN. /FB/MP
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 03 APR 2015...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT, A LOW
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE...BRINGING IN UNSETTLED SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN OR NEAR THE WATERS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD...BUT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW
STRONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED RAINY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
A BREAK MIDWEEK. YET ANOTHER...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER...FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN WITH THE HANDLING OF A
PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEKEND, THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MANY AREAS WILL GET OFF TO A COLD START THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S OVER SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY IN NORCAL EARLY THIS MORNING. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
ARE OUT AND CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR.
UPSTREAM...IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING WASHINGTON AND OREGON FROM THE
PACIFIC. SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING, THEN LOWER AT
THE COAST BY LUNCHTIME. EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE THERE TOO LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INLAND TO ABOUT THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS ISN`T A STRONG FRONT BY ANY STRETCH...MOST OF THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF MEDFORD...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTIER BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST SIDE). THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE ROGUE
VALLEY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT THAT WILL BEGIN AT 3:16 AM
AND WILL REACH TOTALITY AT 4:58 AM. THIS WILL BE THE SHORTEST
LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE CENTURY (TOTALITY IS ONLY AROUND 5 MINUTES
DURATION). BY 5:03 AM...THE EARTH`S SHADOW WILL BE MOVING OFF OF
THE MOON. THE BAD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN. FOR
THOSE LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WANT TO
STAY UP LATE OR GET UP EARLY...ENJOY THE SHOW!
NOW, ABOUT THAT UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THEIR USUAL DIFFICULTIES IN HANDLING SUCH
SITUATIONS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
WILL BE DIFFICULT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. IN FACT, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET.
SO, WE`LL SEE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO OVER THE MAJOR
PASSES (SISKIYOU SUMMIT, LAKE OF THE WOODS, AND BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
NEAR MOUNT SHASTA CITY) AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. RIGHT NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
SINCE IT IS APRIL...IF THE SNOW IS LIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY JUST
MELT ON ROADWAYS DURING THE DAY. BUT, ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW-
COVERED AND SLIPPERY AT NIGHT. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE TRAFFIC THAN USUAL...SO FOLKS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT...CHECK OUT SPSMFR FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS. WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHORT WAVES SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE EVEN COLDER ALOFT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AS LOW AS
2000 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW MAY NOT MOVE COMPLETELY
ONSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT THE COOL,
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THEN,
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HEAD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO DRY THINGS OUT
WITH A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026-619>623.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS MADE TO GO
STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NORTH LEAVING THE NY BORDER COUNTIES TO BE
FLIRTING WITH RAIN SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TIME FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH LATER MONDAY WHEN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
MISS VALLEY BRINGS MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK TO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN
THEN ACTUALLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SOMETHING WE HAVE
NOT SEEN MUCH OF IN RECENT MONTHS...FROM ABOUT TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER AS WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE BAROLCLINIC ZONE MEANING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN KEEPING A DAMPER ON THINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PA CREATING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.
MOST AREAS WILL START OUT MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AS THE RAIN SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBFD. EXPECT SNOW ALONG
NY BORDER AREAS FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND DRIES THE REGION OUT. VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNSH. WILL BE
A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPENS TO SUB 1000 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SRN PENN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MULTI- MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD
0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER
THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL
TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
THE AIR SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH...OR
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS FAR NWRN PENN WITH A FEW TO SVRL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LIGHT TO MDT WET SNOWFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWOCTP/.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY OF PENN TO THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 03Z-12Z SAT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN THEN RISE SOME
AHEAD OF MORE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WET WEATHER LOOKS IN PLAY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PA CREATING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.
MOST AREAS WILL START OUT MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AS THE RAIN SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBFD. EXPECT SNOW ALONG
NY BORDER AREAS FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND DRIES THE REGION OUT. VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNSH. WILL BE
A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPENS TO SUB 1000 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SRN PENN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MULTI- MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD
0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER
THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL
TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
THE AIR SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH...OR
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS FAR NWRN PENN WITH A FEW TO SVRL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LIGHT TO MDT WET SNOWFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWOCTP/.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY OF PENN TO THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 03Z-12Z SAT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN THEN RISE SOME
AHEAD OF MORE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WET WEATHER LOOKS IN PLAY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST OF THE
TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH BFD HAVING MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MID
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. CIGS IMPROVE
TEMPORARILY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR UNV...BFD AND IPT AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS COOL AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW SD INTO THE NRN/ERN BLKHLS AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
20 POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER THESE AREAS AND INCREASED NW SD
POPS TO CHANCE. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTORM AS WELL. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST. WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH MONTANA.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. A LITTLE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...40S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAINLY OVER NE BUT REACHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AND
DRY AIR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST US. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THEN
COOLER AIR WILL BACK INTO THE CWA ON EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
THURSDAY. MAIN ENERGY FROM PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO SPLIT NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ECMWF IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER POPS
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD UNTIL AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY -SHRA/-TSRA OVER FAR NWRN SD
AND OVER THE BLKHLS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONINUE THROUGH
THE AFT...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR TODAY..BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. ISOLD -SHRA
OR POSSIBLY -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARM AND
DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST
WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ELSEWHERE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
DECIDE TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ265.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1049 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS COOL AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW SD INTO THE NRN/ERN BLKHLS AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
20 POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER THESE AREAS AND INCREASED NW SD
POPS TO CHANCE. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTORM AS WELL. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST. WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH MONTANA.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. A LITTLE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...40S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAINLY OVER NE BUT REACHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AND
DRY AIR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST US. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THEN
COOLER AIR WILL BACK INTO THE CWA ON EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
THURSDAY. MAIN ENERGY FROM PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO SPLIT NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ECMWF IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER POPS
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST PLACES. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
-SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. SINCE MIN RH VALUES ARE
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
TODAY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANY HEADLINES.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARM AND DRY
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST WINDS REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA ELSEWHERE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO EXPAND THE
WATCH AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ265.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
CONVECTION IS BUILDING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS EXPECTED...AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST.
CAPPING OVER NRN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS AREA AND
TRACK NE INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-81/I-75...BEGINNING AROUND 6 PM EDT. THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE HRRR...BUT THE HRRR IS CURRENTLY TOO FAR WEST WITH
THE DEVELOPING STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREAT. 0-1 SRH IS FAVORABLE BUT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SO THE TOR THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AT
BEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WILL DROP POPS BACK QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS MARGINAL AS THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
GUSTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 25-30 MPH...BUT SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RIGHT
ON THE FREEZNIG LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW DUE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND WILL LET THE
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE FURTHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...WITH A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD SOUTH OF I-40. MODELS HAVE HAD A TREND OF PUSHING THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN CLOSER TO SUNRISE...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY AND
IN TO MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE IS PRESENT FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL SET UP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 64 36 68 / 90 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 59 33 66 / 90 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 60 33 66 / 100 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 56 28 65 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
DGS/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
911 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MESSY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW HAVING AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS AND OVERRUNNING CONTRIBUTING TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THIS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FEATURE OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS... WITH THE TTU-WRF HAVING HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER SO FAR THIS
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM
THE WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO MID 60S.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CIGS. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL PRECIP WILL BEGIN TOWARD 09Z AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES SURGING TO 1.80 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE POINT THAT THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE INCLUDED FOR TAF SITES NORTH OF HOUSTON. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BULLISH WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN
THE NAM AND BLENDED THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND
THE RAP. NE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE SE BY SUNDAY AFTN.
43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL INTO THE GULF BUT STALLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL END THE NICE COOL SPRING CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE MIN TEMPS
SUN MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOUND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING INTO
CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES
TONIGHT. TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE S PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME ISO CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP PULL STALLED FRONT IN
THE GULF NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA FROM DFW TO THE
ARKLATX. INCLUDED SOME HIGHER 40-50 POPS FOR COLLEGE STATION TO
CROCKETT TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS BRING IN
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH MORE OF THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP SOME 30
POPS IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. MAY BE A WEAK PASSING SHOWER EACH DAY WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT THUR THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PAC IN THE ROCKIES
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOW PULLS INTO THE PLAINS THUR AND LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS N TX THUR SO WILL HAVE SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO S TX BY FRI WHICH INCREASES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT. A LITTLE LEERY OF GOING WITH 50 POPS ON DAY 7
BUT ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH PRECIP ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
39
MARINE...
WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN
BUT WILL LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS JUST A BIT
LONGER. NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE FCST OF RETURNING RETURN FLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MODERATE/LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 73 66 81 67 / 60 50 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 66 82 69 / 40 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 76 70 79 71 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CIGS. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL PRECIP WILL BEGIN TOWARD 09Z AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES SURGING TO 1.80 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TO THE POINT THAT THUNDER MAY
NEED TO BE INCLUDED FOR TAF SITES NORTH OF HOUSTON. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BULLISH WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE GFS WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN
THE NAM AND BLENDED THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND
THE RAP. NE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE SE BY SUNDAY AFTN.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL INTO THE GULF BUT STALLING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TOMORROW. THIS
WILL END THE NICE COOL SPRING CONDITIONS TODAY. WHILE MIN TEMPS
SUN MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOUND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING INTO
CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES
TONIGHT. TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE S PLAINS BY SUN AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME ISO CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. SFC
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL ALSO HELP PULL STALLED FRONT IN
THE GULF NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA FROM DFW TO THE
ARKLATX. INCLUDED SOME HIGHER 40-50 POPS FOR COLLEGE STATION TO
CROCKETT TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HI RES MESOSCALE MODELS BRING IN
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH MORE OF THE AREA SO WILL STILL KEEP SOME 30
POPS IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES MON THROUGH WED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. MAY BE A WEAK PASSING SHOWER EACH DAY WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT THUR THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PAC IN THE ROCKIES
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOW PULLS INTO THE PLAINS THUR AND LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS N TX THUR SO WILL HAVE SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO S TX BY FRI WHICH INCREASES THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT. A LITTLE LEERY OF GOING WITH 50 POPS ON DAY 7
BUT ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH PRECIP ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE IT IS WEAKER WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
39
MARINE...
WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN
BUT WILL LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS JUST A BIT
LONGER. NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE FCST OF RETURNING RETURN FLOW FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MODERATE/LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 57 73 66 81 67 / 40 50 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 76 66 82 69 / 30 40 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 76 70 79 71 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1
AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLIN
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TOMORROW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. AN ISOLATED POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
RIO GRANDE AND POINTS EAST. SUNDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
OBS INDICATE THE BACKDOOR FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CORONA TO
SOMEWHERE JUST NE OF ROSWELL. HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST FROPA AT ELP
JUST BEFORE 03Z (9 PM). COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS
WITH THE NAM INDICATING A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
NOSING INTO THE AREA.
THE NAM HAS GENERALLY BEEN STRONGER WITH FRONT...PUSHING IT
FARTHER WEST AND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES VERSUS THE GFS.
THERE WERE NO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN INITIAL CONDITIONS BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS OR BETWEEN EITHER MODEL VERSUS 12Z OBS.
THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT WELL INTO ARIZONA AND KEEPS EASTERLIES IN
PLACE AS FAR WEST AS LORDSBURG BY SAT EVENING. WITH THE COOLER
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE IN THE NAM...THERES NO INSTABILITY AND A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...THOUGH THE 18Z
RUN SUGGESTS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE DIVIDE BY 18Z...BUT WESTERLIES
END UP MIXING THE FRONT BACK TO AROUND THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE ECMWF AND A FEW HIGH-RES WRF RUNS
ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THE GFS SUGGESTS STRONG CONVERGENCE AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 40F WILL LEAD
TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK/MODERATE CAP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
AND POINTS EAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS
WITH THE SAT EVENING FRONT POSITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... AND
QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT... THE LACK OF ANY
REALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO BREAK THE CAP WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED...THEREFORE I KEPT THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING (ISOLATED) IN THIS CASE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY... BUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. INSTEAD WE WILL SEE MORE SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH CARVES
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHWARD...AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASINGLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW150-BKN250. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS THRU 03Z. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL
WILL BRING A STRONGER EASTERLY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY 06Z
INCREASING WINDS AT KELP AND KLRU ABOVE 15KTS. AWW AT KELP 05Z-10Z
AS WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 10026G35KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL BRING A STRONGER EASTERLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION DROPPING TEMPS AND HELPING RH VALUES RECOVER BEHIND
THE FRONT. SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITION WILL APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
CREATING WINDY AFTERNOONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY RH VALUES WILL RECOVER WITH VALUES IN THE 20S TO 30S
ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS. SUNDAY MIN RH VALUES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 52 75 57 84 58 / 0 0 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 69 50 81 53 / 0 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 75 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 74 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 54 36 59 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 73 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 75 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 78 41 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 75 57 83 57 / 0 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 46 68 48 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 75 53 86 53 / 0 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 67 50 77 53 / 0 10 20 0 0
FABENS 49 74 53 85 53 / 0 10 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 75 52 82 53 / 0 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 74 49 81 54 / 0 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 74 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 76 45 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 77 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 71 49 79 53 / 0 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 31 59 41 67 44 / 0 10 10 0 0
MESCALERO 32 60 38 67 41 / 0 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 33 60 40 67 43 / 0 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 34 67 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 40 71 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 74 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 67 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 71 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 77 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 35 74 33 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 70 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 78 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25-HARDIMAN/28-PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
201 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES
NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY AROUND 5 OR 6 PM AND IN LANE COUNTY IN THE
MID TO LATE EVENING. THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS CHANCE OF SOME INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED PARENT UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR DECREASING SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH COASTAL SECTION. THE
UPPER LOW EXPANDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND IT FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW PASS LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CAME INTO THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND NOON...AND WAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 1 PM. EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES THAT
THE RAIN SHOULD END NEAR PORTLAND BY AROUND 4 PM...AND A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER SOUTHWARD IN EUGENE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES AN HOUR OR TWO LATER...AND EAST OF LANE COUNTY IN THE LATE
EVENING.
THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW AS
IT WAS MOVING THROUGH...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVY IN THE NORTH NEAR
PORTLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO HAVE 40 TO 50 DBZ ECHOES ON ITS
NORTHERN END. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL IDEA OF THE FRONT BEING
A BIT CONVECTIVE. THE MODELS SHOW SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NORTHWARD WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED PARENT COOL UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE
B.C. COAST...WILL DIG SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
OFF THE COAST. THAT SHOULD BRING DECREASING SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME MOISTURE
AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE WITHIN THE REACH OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND
THE LOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTH AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...REACHING A POSITION JUST OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT THE
UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER THE BURST
OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE NEXT PERIOD WITH SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PERHAPS
A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
AGAIN...NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FURTHER SOUTH DOWN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
INCONSISTENCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS OUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIP COULD STILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE
TRACK...THOUGH...WE ARE HESITANT TO REMOVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
NORTHERN 1/3RD OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON LATE NEXT WEEK
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND...OR ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY...
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T VERY HIGH AS OF YET. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA IN SCATTERED
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN OF CASCADES MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A
SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF KPDX WITH
PREVAILING CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET.
&&
.MARINE...A LOW PRES NEAR HAIDA GWAII B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING ABOUT 400 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL SEE WHAT MODELS DO IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
A LARGER NORTHWESTERLY SWILL TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WAS GENERATED BY THE LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 11 FT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. ENP WAVE MODEL IS VERIFYING WELL COMPARED TO OFFSHORE
BUOYS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH SUN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO N CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. IT MAY BRING SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MEAN
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase today with the next storm system bringing a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow tonight. A stronger storm
Sunday night and Monday may bring a return of light snow
accumulation to northeast Washington and North Idaho. Unsettled
and cool conditions will persist into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have lowered Pops for the eastern Basin
including the Spokane-Cda area through this afternoon. Morning
models have come in drier and main precipitation threat east of
the Cascade Crest will be early evening into the overnight. NAM is
developing some convection in the northern and eastern mountains
this afternoon but did not initialize boundary layer moisture (too
moist) as well as the GFS so will give the nod to the drier, less
showery GFS. HRRR would support this notion as well with only an
isolated shower or two expected over the northeastern mountains
and possibly between the Blues and Mullan. Precipitation chances
will be greatest along the Cascade Crest with frontal
precipitation moving in around 2PM. As this band crosses the
crest, a few showers will survive into the East Slopes,
Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley but any precipitation
looks to be light as westerly flow quickly developing behind the
front leads to shadowing. Overall, the best chances for
precipitation this evening and tonight will be on the outer
perimeter of the Columbia Basin. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will reach the Cascades arnd 21Z then
slowly work east to the WA/ID border 6-8Z. Mid and high clouds
will stream into the region ahead of the front with a small threat
for isolated showers vcnty of KLWS. Precipitation along the front
will be spotty for most terminals with the highest precipitation
chances focusing on the outer perimeter of the Basin. KLWS/KPUW
will stand the best chance for shower activity this evening and
overnight. Ceilings under heavier showers will range btwn 5-8k ft
agl. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 33 51 31 54 34 / 10 20 10 10 10 80
Coeur d`Alene 53 30 51 28 54 32 / 10 30 10 10 10 80
Pullman 54 33 50 31 55 35 / 20 40 10 10 20 80
Lewiston 60 35 55 34 57 37 / 20 50 10 10 30 70
Colville 55 31 54 27 56 33 / 20 30 20 10 0 40
Sandpoint 53 30 51 25 54 31 / 20 40 20 10 10 80
Kellogg 53 32 48 27 50 32 / 20 60 30 10 10 90
Moses Lake 61 33 60 31 58 36 / 10 10 0 0 10 50
Wenatchee 57 34 58 36 58 41 / 20 10 10 10 10 50
Omak 57 29 56 30 58 36 / 20 40 10 10 10 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
00Z NAM HAS THE HIGHEST QPF BAND OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR
COUNTIES AND THE NEXT SET OF COUNTIES NORTH. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWER TO COOL VS THE 18Z NAM. EVEN
SO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP
THE PRECIP MIX AND CHANGEOVER AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. RADAR SHOWS
A MORE SOUTHERN BAND THAT COULD AFFECT THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREA.
HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE STILL VERY DRY AND THE HRRR...THAT HAS THE
FARTHER SOUTH BAND...AND ALSO QUICKLY WEAKENS IT FOR A MORE NORTH
FOCUS. 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS DID HAVE SOME 5 TO 18 JOULE/KG ELEVATED
CAPE LIFTED FROM 12 THSD FT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A RATHER COMPLEX JET MAX STRUCTURE...WILL BRING MAINLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FROM NEAR THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE WITH THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AS THESE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF MADISON
AND MILWAUKEE. MAINLY VFR SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THERE WILL BE QUITE A SPREAD IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A NEARLY NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BISECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY TOWARD
THE ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH DUE TO
PRETTY GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND A COUPLE OF WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE
FRONTAL ZONE. COULD SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME IN
THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION.
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A CHILLY EAST WIND OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE EXPECTED PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS COOL THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPS
TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. EXPECTING A 25 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR MAX T ERROR ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA...DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT SETS UP.
SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING ALONG IT AT THIS POINT ANYWAY.
A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA...BUT MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE DRY WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE STEADY ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCLUDING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH A PERSISTENT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER
JET OVER WISCONSIN. THIS STEADY...DEEP UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST...LOOK FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OUR ONLY REAL DRY DAY EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...OR VERY
CLOSE TO IT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THOSE
LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER SURGE OF MORE MOIST
ISENTROPIC FLOW/LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY...WE/LL GET ENOUGH RAIN TO
GET GREEN UP GOING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF TAKE THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW UP ACROSS
MN AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT THEN DIMINISH AS
THE OCCLUDED LOW AND DRY SLIGHT LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
TWO MORE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING MAINLY
RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES. LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AS THESE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE.
PUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT...AS MODELS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ZIPPING
THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 00Z. STILL PRETTY
GUSTY OUT THERE...BUT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER...
WILL SEE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY...AS A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BISECT THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RH
VALUES AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...COULD
SEE RH VALUES DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH TEMPS INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL
BE LESS WIND OVERALL THOUGH THAN TODAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1236 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK WITH SNOWFALL ENDING LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE ALREADY DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...THE LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
INTO COLORADO AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DECREASED POP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND I80 SUMMIT.
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED ON THE I80 SUMMIT...BUT ROADS ARE SNOW
COVERED IN A FEW AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WYOMING. HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS KRWL WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLAR AND KCYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
946 PM PDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.Synopsis...
Periods of rain and mountain snow with below normal temperatures
Sunday into Wednesday. Warmer and drier weather for the latter half
of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
High and mid-level clouds streaming over NorCal this evening. A
few sprinkles and light showers over Shasta county and the northern
Sierra. Trace amounts at Redding and Red Bluff and 0.05 at Butte
Meadows(Tehama county 4000 feet). Initial disturbance is still west
of Eureka and running a few hours slower versus afternoon
guidance. HRRR is showing showers filling in over much of the
southern and central Sac valley after 8am and shifting over the
Sierra through the morning. Activity over the northern Sac valley
will be a bit more convective and showery in nature. Current
forecast is on track and no evening update will be needed.
.Previous Discussion...
Norcal in for a good ol` one/two punch in the wx for the next few
days.
Challenges in the forecast are QPF/Snow levels and most
importantly...timing of the precip. Today`s models have slowed the
onset of precip in Norcal on Sun and have made some adjustments for
the afternoon package in the timing of the WSW as well.
Short wave energy vcnty of 40n/140w rotating under the NErn Pac
upper low will begin to impact Norcal early Sun morning. Although
some WAA precip may develop over the Siernev overnight...this is
expected to be minimal/very light and spotty at best. TPW is below
the .80" necessary to produce significant precip in Norcal given the
duration of this system...and relatively low for a WAA precip
pattern. The dry sub-cloud layer will also retard onset of
precip...so anything overnight is expected to be very light.
However...as large scale ascent and CAA increases on Sun with the
incoming short wave energy...precip will become widespread with the
higher resolution QPF progs suggesting Sun afternoon will be the
primary period of precip to warrant a WSW in the Siernev. Precip may
not make it as far south of the YNP area until late Sun afternoon or
early evening...so hikers may have most of the day without
encountering precip.
The dry air mass will also lead to wet-bulb cooling which will make
snow level forecasting a challenge. We are already dealing with a
cold air mass as evidenced by the open-cellular cumulus over the
NErn Pac and a cold upper level low. The temps are not too highly
anomalous however...as the return interval of heights/temps
depending on which standard pressure surface you look at...ranges
from a 1 to 5 year return period on the NAEFS. Given the WBZs drop
to 2000-2800 ft in our CWA Sun morning...the initial snow level may
be lower in the morning...and then rise slightly as the air mass
moistens. By Sun afternoon the WBZs rise to 3000-4000 ft...so our
thinking of 3500 ft snow levels for the Siernev and 2000-2500 for
Shasta Co look reasonable at this time.
System #1 decreases/winds downs Sun evening...but wx system #2 will
follow on it`s heels for Mon/Tue. The upper low over the NErn Pac is
progged to drop down over the region Tue. It will likely bring
precip to the Coastal Range and Wrn half of the CWA on Mon...before
spreading across the entire CWA on Tue. Large scale ascent forecast
to be much stronger with storm #2 than #1 with the potential for a
wetter/stronger storm. The strongest upward vertical motion is
forecast around the 12z Tue time frame generally in the valley...
before shifting into the Siernev around midday Tue. Depth of
moisture up to 400 mbs will make it difficult for significant breaks
in cloud cover for stronger surface heating...but the cold pool
aloft will steepen lapse rates with the potential for thunder/small
hail or graupel storms in the valley and Siernev foothills primarily
Tue afternoon/early evening. This storm has the potential for a
watch/warning product in future forecasts...including all of our mtn
zones...but will deal with storm #1 first.
Strong cyclonic flow in the wake of this system on Wed will keep
clouds and at least a chance of showers over the Siernev during the
day. JHM
.Extended Discussion (Wednesday through Saturday)
Lingering showers possible over the mountains of Eastern Shasta,
Plumas, and Sierra Nevada Wednesday, then dry and warmer weather
expected Thursday into Saturday as Pacific upper ridge moves
inland.
&&
.Aviation...
Dtrtg conds Sun as Pac stm movs into Intr NorCal. Mnly VFR conds
thru abt 17z Sun then wdsprd MVFR with areas IFR, lcl LIFR omtns,
in pcpn. Sn lvls arnd 025 Shasta mtns to 035 amsl ovr Siernev.
Isold tstms with sml hail poss mnly n of I-80 Sun aftn/eve. Areas
Sly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kts Sun aftn with S-SW sfc wnd gsts up to
40 kts poss ovr hyr mtn trrn.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
winter weather advisory from 8 am sunday to midnight pdt sunday
night above 3500 feet in the western plumas county/lassen park.
winter weather advisory from noon sunday to midnight pdt sunday
night above 3500 feet in the west slope northern sierra nevada.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN
UNSETTLED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIFTS BETWEEN THE I-90 AND I-70 CORRIDOR. IT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1150 PM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AHEAD OF A
COMPACT YET FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NYS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SOME BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS SW NYS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS EXTENDING FURTHER N AND E INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS.
HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM...WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY EXTENDING
AS FAR N AND E AS THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND AS FAR S
AND E AS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WHERE A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD
OCCUR...LEADING TO ACCUMS OF UP TO AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...MOST
ACCUMS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING ON COLDER
SURFACES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...AND SOME WIND...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM GETTING VERY COLD OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS BY A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH MAINLY 20S EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS
ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 30 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TURNING UNSETTLED.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYTSEM`S COLD
FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION...ACROSS THE MID/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH IT SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY THE FOCUS WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD.
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY UP TO QUARTER INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE
SEASONABLE READINGS MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SAGA OF THE WAVERING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/AROUND OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE AS CONFLUENT UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND FLAT UPPER
RIDGING JUST SO GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO JUST SO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THEN SOME
QUICK SMALL NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY ENHANCES THE UPPER
CONFLUENCE IN EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. RESULTING IN
NORTHERN STREAM BASED LOW LEVEL RIDGING...PUSHING THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE A LITTLE SOUTH...COOLING OUR REGION A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN...AS A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. AND UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BETTER UPPER RIDGING IN
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND POTENTIALLY MORE LOW LEVEL WARMING AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS NORTH AGAIN.
SO...TIMING PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY AND QUICK SHOTS OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION PROVIDES SOME CHALLENGES. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE SETS OF
GUIDANCE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES
BECOME BETTER RESOLVED...PUTTING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...BUT PERHAPS MID 50S SOUTHERN
AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY AS THE COOLING TAKES
PLACE.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FORCING BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD STILL BE OVER SOME PART OF
THE REGION. THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER ENERGY IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN THIS
TIME SPAN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR. BUT
AGAIN...TIMING VERY MUCH IN QUESTION SO BROAD BRUSHING CHANCES UNTIL
TIMING IS CLEARER AS WE GET TOWARD THE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
50S...SOME UPPER 40S NORTH...AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL MAINLY BE
SCT- BKN035-050 OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PSBL.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE WITH A VCSH AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IF THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOST EAST AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVEPUSHING
ACRS SRN CANADA. FOR TODAY A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AOA BKN-OVC080 CLOUDS WILL OVER SPREAD THE
AREA WITH INCRG SCT-BKN040-050 DURING THE AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA/SNSH MAY DVLP DURING THE AFTN...BUT ATTM TOO SPARSE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT IS FOR THE MOHAWK RIVER AT UTICA
HARBOR FOR MINOR FLOODING. BASED ON THE CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
THE ONLY RIVER POINT FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IS ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER AT GAYLORDSVILLE AND THIS COULD FALL JUST SHY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TURN COLDER WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED
ENDING SNOWMELT. THEN THERE WILL BE DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOW AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT COLD ENOUGH TO
SNOW AND EVEN STOP THE MELT.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH OF LESS
WITH SOME OF THAT FALLING AS SNOW.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
323 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
244 PM CDT
THROUGH MONDAY...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAIN CONCERN HAS BEEN
ON HOW DRY IT HAS BECOME WITH THE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN
TO NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. AS SUNSET APPROACHES...TEMPS WILL
START TO COOL AND ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO SLOWLY RISE AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. THE SFC RIDGE HAS BECOME CENTERED ACORSS THE
WESTERN TENN VALLEY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. MEANWHILE A CANADIAN SFC RIDGE WILL NUDGE
SOUTH...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH TO PREVENT THIS BOUNDARY FROM DIPPING
INTO NORTHERN IL UNTIL MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK WAVES RIDING THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF NORTHERN IL.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RADIATE INTO THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S NEAR DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAIN CONCERN FOR SUN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL
TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SFC RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA...WITH FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY. LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL NUDGE DEW POINTS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPR 20S. THAT COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS POISED TO
WARM INTO THE MID 60S...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE SUN LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON.
500MB TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SUN NGT...WITH
A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD HELP IN KEEPING THE SFC BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUN NGT ALONG WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH THE WESTERN
GULF FEEDING MOISTURE NORTH. PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND NORTH
THROUGH SUN NGT...AND DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN
THE MID-LVLS REMAINS MON COULD ALSO BE DRY. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD
INTO THE MENTION OF SLT CHC POPS. TEMPS MON WILL LIKELY AGAIN TOUCH
THE MID/UPR 50S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
BEACHLER
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...AND EACH OF THESE WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE WAVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VERY
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING CONSTANTLY. INSTEAD...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE WAVES OF ENERGY.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
FIRST APPROACHING WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRY STEEP (E.G., AROUND 7 DEG C/KM)...SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A DECENT BET WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
WE END UP WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE TIMING
OF THE EJECTION OF THE MAIN SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
TIMING IN A HURRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...IT COULD END
UP RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER...OR
NEAR THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION IF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM SYSTEM DOES GET ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS LATER WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE...AND HENCE HOW FOR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET. IN SPITE
OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HOWEVER...THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE AREA. GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MILD SOUTH AND COOL
NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN.
KJB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
244 PM CDT
GUSTY WEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH HAS ALLOWED STRONG MIXING
TO OCCUR AND PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED BORDERLINE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE AROUND
SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER...THEN RETURN SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY...WIND GUSTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S WILL PRODUCE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SUNDAY ON DEW POINTS...AS IT IS POSSIBLE DEW
POINTS MAY BE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. THIS WOULD
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLSOER TO 30 PERCENT.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AFTER SUNRISE THRU MID AFTERNOON.
CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-14KT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT. ALOFT...VERY STRONG WINDS OF 40-50KT WILL CAUSE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 2KFT. THESE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH
IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO MIX AFTER
SUNRISE...SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. BUT THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS/GUSTS TO ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING BACK
SOUTHERLY AT OR BELOW 10 KT AFTER SUNSET.
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH BASED CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THEN HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS PROBABLE...CHANCE OF WIND SHIFT TO E/NE.
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS. STRONG NE WINDS. OCNL
DZ/FG...CHANCE -RA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THRU MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH 30 KTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF/NORTH TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
IN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...11 AM
SUNDAY TO 8 PM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
254 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central
Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s,
located near the large fair weather system. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary was located over northern Iowa eastward through extreme
southern Wisconsin with a band of showers occurring mainly north of
the boundary. The last few satellite loops indicating some patchy
mid clouds spilling east across the region this morning but most of
the forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
suggest the bulk of the more extensive cloud cover today will remain
to our north. Forecast soundings off the HRRR and Rapid Refresh
depicting another well mixed boundary layer again today which should
result in temperatures at or above guid values, and with the deep
mixing occurring this afternoon, rather low relative humidities and
gusty southwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Position of frontal boundary will remain a significant challenge
much of the week. General philosophy remains the same as the
previous model runs, although with a bit of a slower southward push
late Tuesday. Because of that, bumped up high temperatures a few
degrees. Much of the model guidance shows upper 70s across the
southwest CWA Tuesday afternoon, although the far north is expected
to be about 10 degrees cooler with the front much closer.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s Wednesday with some lower
70s south, as the front drops to near the I-70 corridor before
heading back north. Also warmed Thursday highs with mid-upper 70s
common.
With much of the week featuring rain chances, have tried to do some
refining of potential dry periods. With the atmosphere remaining
capped much of Monday, have scaled back PoP`s to mainly the
afternoon, and featured generally slight chances except far
northwest and far southeast. Monday night, have continued the likely
PoP`s most areas, as thunderstorms expand along the frontal boundary
just to our north. However, the precipitation threat will diminish
from south to north as capping becomes more prominent in the warm
sector.
With the front sagging southward, it currently appears Wednesday
should be dry over much of the area north of I-72, but PoP`s ramp up
again quickly as developing low pressure over the central Plains
drags the front northward once again. A closed upper low, which will
develop after a wave moves onshore Tuesday, continues to be a
pivotal player in the ultimate evolution of this front/low. The
longer range models are coming into closer agreement, although the
GFS remains on a faster track (ECMWF still has it over northwest
Wisconsin by Saturday morning, while the GFS is over Lake Huron).
Thursday remains the most unstable period, with the GFS-progged
CAPE`s approaching 2000 J/kg in the afternoon, although 0-6km bulk
shear values expected to be low, favoring more of a hail/wind severe
potential.
With the upper low remaining rather prominent late in the week, the
corresponding surface cyclone will be wrapping up, with a prominent
dry slot punching through on Friday. Have maintained some low chance
PoP`s on Friday, although this would mainly be in across the eastern
eastern CWA during the morning. With breezy southwest winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are still expected to reach near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
should remain clear to mostly clear most of the period, but some
high cirrus may advect over the sites tomorrow evening. Winds will
become more southwest to south through the period with gusts
around 20-24kts possible tomorrow. Winds will again diminish
tomorrow evening after sunset.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS
EVENING BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE SLIDES BY
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT ANY CLOUDINESS OVER OUR
AREA TO BE THIN ENOUGH THAT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT AFTERNOON
THERMAL MIXING ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
OUTPERFORMED GUIDANCE SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH FULL SUN AND DEEP
MIXING...THEREFORE MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB AGAIN ON SUNDAY PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WARRANTS A TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. 05Z RAP WAS AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SO USED 05Z RAP FOR HIGHS AFTER KNOCKING IT
DOWN ONE DEGREE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MIXING DEPTH AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECT
WINDS TO BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY... LIKELY IN THE 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN DURING MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN THE REGION BUT QUESTIONS DO CONTINUE WITH TIMING OF
WAVES AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY MONDAY WITH PWATS CREEPING
TOWARD ONE INCH AND THETA E RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO
STRONG FORCING. MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING BOUNDARY. BEYOND
THIS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE WITH TIMING ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AFTER FIRST WAVE THAT WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. RELUCTANTLY STAYED WITH BLENDED INIT OF LIKELY POPS FOR
COLLABORATION PURPOSES WITH CONCERNS OVER CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THAT
HAVE YET TO BE MODELED. MAIN COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE.
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND CONSISTENCY FOR NOW WITH MODEL
CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRENGTH OF A COUPLE
WAVES BUT NARROWING DOWN STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD LEAN TOWARD WARM
FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY THEN MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
SUNDAY THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...AND WANE AS TEMPERATURES COOL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GRT LKS BTWN CUTOFF H5 LO OVER NRN QUEBEC
AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SPRAWLING SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA...WITH A RDG AXIS ORIENTED SE INTO LK
SUP. THE UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HI. THE 00Z PWAT WAS 0.13 INCH AT INL /45 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND
ONLY 0.05 INCH AT YPL AND THE PAS MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME CLDS OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT DRAPED W-E ACROSS THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE ARE SOME SCT MID CLDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHRTWV THAT IS SHEARING OUT IN THE NW UPPER
FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF. SOME LO CLDS AND EVEN A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE ALSO DVLPD OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE LO PRES TROF. TEMPS TO THE N ARE
QUITE CHILLY AS WELL...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP -20C AT YPL. LOOKING TO THE
S...THERE IS A BAND OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FM SRN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH APRCH OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND SOME
WAA/FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85 WARM FNT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS
A SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES RDG. HI
CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT RA IS FALLING ALONG THE NDAKOTA/SDAKOTA BORDER DESPITE VERY
DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON CLDS TODAY AND THEN
POPS/SN AMOUNTS FOR TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW RIDING OVER THE
ROCKIES RDG AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TDAY...AS WEAK SHRTWV CAUSING BAND OF PCPN IN CENTRAL WI SLIDES TO
THE ESE...THIS AREA OF PCPN WL REMAIN S OF UPR MI. OTHERWISE...MID
LVL SUBSIDENCE/HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP WL BRING MAINLY DRY WX.
SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LO CLDS WL PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE NCNTRL CWA WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE ENE WIND THAT WL SLOW THE ADVECTION OF THE VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN IN ONTARIO. ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES THIS MRNG IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL. WITH AN ENE WIND...EXPECT BLO NORMAL
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHILLY WATERS OF THE GREAT LKS. DEEPER
MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ALLOW TEMPS NEAR THE WI
BORDER TO REACH THE LO 40S AWAY FM ANY LK MODERATION AND DESPITE SOME
INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN.
TNGT...MODELS INDICATE UPR CONFLUENCE ZN WL RETREAT TO THE N...
ALLOWING SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TO APRCH. WITH THE
RETREAT OF THE CONFLUENCE ZN...UPR MI IS PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE
RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT AVER FAR SW QUEBEC/
ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT. AS THE H85 WARM FNT/MID LVL FGEN BAND
SHIFT TO THE N UNDER THE DVLPG UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF THE JET
STREAK...A BAND OF WAA SN TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE WI BORDER IN THE EVNG AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N
THRU THE N...ENVELOPING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z MON.
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.30 INCH QPF OVER THE
SCENTRAL...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE
2.5-3.0 G/KG RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WET SN ACCUMS WITH
NARROW/HIER DGZ MAY APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO THE WEATHER PATTERN AWAY FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A WESTERLY FLOW BY MID WEEK. WHILE THAT
OCCURS...SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE AREA AND ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THAT FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME SHIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA. THAT WILL BE THE FIRST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIATIONS IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...THEY SEEM TO HAVE NARROWED IN ON THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DURING THAT
TIME...THINK THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL
NORTHWARD PUSH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THAT BETTER PRECIPITATION...THE THERMAL PROFILE
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING AND WOULD EXPECT THE P-TYPE TO REMAIN
AS SNOW. BUT AS THE FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS
THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION WILL CUT OUT AND THE SUB
800MB THERMAL PROFILE IS HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THAT
WOULD LEAD TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POTENTIAL FOR FZRA WHERE TEMPS ARE
AROUND FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GET OVERLY
DETAILED AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL SHOW A MENTION OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING ALOFT. FORCING DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.P. BEFORE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL NEAR THE
WI BORDER AND THE SOUTHERN U.P. LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
DOES HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDS)...BUT THE
MAIN FORCING/MOISTURE IS BELOW THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL REGION.
THUS..WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIQUID IN IT OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS YOU HEAD NORTH ACROSS
THE U.P. THEREFORE...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
THE IMPACT FROM THIS PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST KEEPING COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARMING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL (EXCEPT ON EXISTING COLD SURFACES)...BUT COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN WHERE
THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE SNOW
WILL BE DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING...LIMITING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY WILL EXCEED 3 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1.5IN OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO NOSE BACK SOUTH AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THAT NEXT WAVE IS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THAT PERIOD. WON/T GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE
EVOLVING IDEAS IN THE MODELS...BUT THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE WARMING BETWEEN 925-
700MB (PEAKING BETWEEN 1 AND 6C)...WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION FALL
AS A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING
AT OR AROUND FREEZING WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACK...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIP TYPES. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH
WARM AIR TO SUPPORT RAIN FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FZRA IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING) BEFORE POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH AND HAS SHIFTED IT
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW. LOOKING AT THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...THAT FASTER TREND SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL IN ALL...WITH
THIS PERIOD STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WON/T GET TOO DETAILED AND SHOW
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR POPS AND P-TYPE.
FINALLY...EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR RETREATS TO THE NORTH BUT STILL STAYING AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
SFC HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN MID- LVL CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH WI.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-96 BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW DAYS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST FROM WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN SO FAR IS GOING INTO MOISTENING THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF AND SO WE SCALED BACK ON ACCUMS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH CONFIDENCE SYSTEM DUE TO IT/S
DEPENDENCE ON MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHED A TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA A FEW
HOURS AGO AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS 30+ DBZ WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
SREF/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO
ALMA LINE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
60. BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR FROM ONTARIO. MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TUESDAY. LI/S NEAR -4C COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG POINT TOWARD SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-96. TSRA
WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER RISK
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A NEAR FREEZING
LOW LEVEL LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT UP AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNT
PLEASANT. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR MAINLY
NORTH OF A ALMA TO LUDINGTON LINE. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT LESS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WARM FRONT
SITUATED OVER LOWER MI WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDER RISK. HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAWING UP GULF MOISTURE THU INTO
THU NIGHT...SENDING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS.
INSTABILITY ARRIVES AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED AS WELL. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL LATER THU NIGHT OR FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
THUNDER RISK FOR FRI AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BAND OF RAIN/SNOW WILL MOSTLY
MISS ALL OF OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH. EVEN SO I KEEP THE RAIN
(TO WARM FOR SNOW) IN MKG FOR A FEW HOURS..BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND
I BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THERE. LANSING MAY BE TOUCHED BY
THE RAIN AROUND 12Z BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THERE. ALL AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON THE LAKE EXPECTED. 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
133 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
MID CLOUD WAS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM WILL FOCUS ALONG A FRONT THAT HAS SAGGED INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MI. FOR THE DETROIT AREA TAFS...NOT MUCH MORE THAN
THAT MID CLOUD EXPECTED. HOWEVER FOR FNT AND MBS EXPECT CEILINGS TO
FALL 1500 TO 2500 FEET WITH SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3
MILES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.
FOR DTW...JUST MID CLOUD EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THAT WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1026 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z AND 01Z UPDATES OF THE NAM/HRRR/RAP HAVE SHIFTED THE
PRECIP BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE 18Z-21Z RUNS...WHICH IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHERN IA AND THIS SHOULD RACE
EAST ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER.
ANOTHER TREND WAS THE LOWER QPF WITH ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS SINCE
18Z FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE MAXIMUM BAND TO MORE LIKE TWO
TENTHS. THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE GIVEN ALL OF THE DRY AIR THAT
HAS TO BE OVERCOME FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT DVN...GRB...APX AND
DTX. ALL OF THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIP WATERS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF .25 INCHES. WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA...SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FROM THE LAKE AND
THAT COULD HELP GET THAT INITIAL VIRGA TO START REACHING THE
GROUND A LITTLE QUICKER. STILL WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR A QUICK
BURST OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 3 HOUR WINDOW RIGHT AT DAYBREAK.
ALSO WITH THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO GET DOWN TO THE I-69
CORRIDOR...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS AT 925 AND THE SURFACE WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW IN THAT I-69 CORRIDOR. WILL INTRODUCE SOME MIX
RAIN AND SNOW THERE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 327 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB REGION ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME
AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROVEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS PRECIP FREE ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. THE INCREASING TRENDS
NOTED ON THE RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE THUMB REGION SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PEAK IN WIND
SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM... OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UNBALANCED
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS POCKET OF MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
WILL IMPINGE INTO THE PRE-EXISTING...BUT RATHER FLAT...THETA-E
GRADIENT IN THE 925-600MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
WILL FORCE SATURATION TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE. THE SATURATION WILL QUICKLY CATALYZE THE THETA-E FIELD INTO A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE. THE RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL FORCE
A NARROW...YET ROBUST...AGEOSTROPHIC SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NWP SUITE PRESENTS THIS DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ABNORMALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLUTION
VARIANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC
STRUCTURE.
AVAILABLE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL SATURATION AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC RESPONSE.
THE REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE SOURCE OF THE NWP
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE. THE 04.12Z NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A FARTHER SOUTH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 8F TOO MOIST IN THE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CMC FAMILY...
GFS...AND LATEST ECMWF ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED -
BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE RAP AND HRRR SEQUENCE HAS BEEN STEADY WITH AN EVEN FARTHER NORTH
DEPICTION AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PWAT ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION DEPICTION...SATURATION OCCURS IN THE SUB-FREEZING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SNOW TO DOMINATE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES WHERE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...REDUCED WET
BULBING...AND PARTIAL SATURATION ALLOW FOR SOME LIQUID DEVELOP.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LATERAL MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
ONCE IT INITIATES. CONSEQUENTLY...APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
BECOMES A CONCERN. THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS /WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED/. FARTHER SOUTH...
DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRACTS
DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENTED FORCING IN
THE CONTEXT OF MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG AND ROUGHLY AN 8 HOUR
DURATION...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN THE 2-3+ INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS
CONVERTING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM - PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES. THE
COLUMN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. THE EMERGENCE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM COLLAPSES THE NEAR
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ICING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE OVERALL DEPICTION...SO WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT AT THE MOMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. LATEST
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE CWA IN TERMS OF
OVERALL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN ACCOUNT BUT
OVERALL... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS/ ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS LOWER MI ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TUES INTO WED.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....MANN/SS
MARINE.......MANN
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS EASTER MORNING...WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...INCLUDING MORNING
READINGS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. A DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WINDY PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...WITH AN ESPECIALLY WINDY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE NM/AZ LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW WEAK 20 DBZ OR LESS RETURNS VICINITY OF GALLUP
AND THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND SERN-MOST ZONES.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS QUITE DRY NEAR/WEST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT
SOME MOISTENING PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS UP 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM SOCORRO TO
ABQ TO TAOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING NOT AS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
EAST OWING TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW BUT HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MAY
BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE SE ZONES IF SURFACE WINDS CAN STAY A BIT
MORE BACKED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 03Z SREF NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF THIS EASTER
MORNING AS WAS 00Z MODEL SUITE BUT INTERESTINGLY ALL THE MODELS
TO VARYING DEGREES SUPPORT A LINEAR-FORCED QPF BAND FROM THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ABQ AREA EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE
I-40 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER FAVORED REGION FROM THE SC MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
NEWD. DID EXPAND MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN
AREAS BUT DECIDED TO AGAINST WIDESPREAD SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN
THAT THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLOSE AFTER 15Z.
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND IT/S APRIL...SO COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL COME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW STEADILY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WARM...DRY AND WINDY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO COOLER POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WINDIEST DAY
FOR MOST AREAS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WINDY ACROSS THE NE QUARTER AS 994MB SURFACE LOW WRAPS
UP AND TRANSLATES NEWD. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
DURING THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD. NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INDICATED
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS/RH
RECOVERY FOR THE EAST. THEN WATCHING ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT LATEST GFS MUCH DRIER FOR OUR AREA TRACKING LOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...PATTERN CERTAINLY TRENDING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SCENARIO ACROSS THE EAST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A TRANSITION TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK...
AS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT APPROACHES NEW MEXICO IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WINDY...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL STEADILY DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST AS WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT CROSSES NEW MEXICO TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. LITTLE WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACT TO STEADILY SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LAYER DRY SLOT REACHES NEW MEXICO.
MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE EAST THUS AIDING THE QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL DOMINATE WESTERN ZONES. AS
RH FALLS BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL AREAS...REACHING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES
MOST AREAS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE
WEST WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
POOR.
BY MONDAY...INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BETTER ALIGN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DRYING CONTINUES AT THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVELS AND WHILE MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP
STRONGER GRADIENTS ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
WINDS. HAINES VALUES WILL EXCEED 5 ALL LOCATIONS AND SINGLE DIGIT RH
VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. RH RECOVERIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POOR.
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND CROSSES THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SOME COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY...UNSTABLE AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AS DOES THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
AS THE BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS RELAX THOUGH STAY STRONG ENOUGH IN THE EAST
TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A WIND SHIFT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN MODEST RH INCREASES MAINLY EAST
AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE FREE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST. 05
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOST MODELS STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT AND MOVING EAST AND EXITING THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT AS EARLIER BUT WILL CARRY VCSH
AT AEG/ABQ/SAF/LVS. CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTIER WINDS AS THE SH
PASS. DOUBT CIGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BUT MAY BE SOME MT
OBSCURATIONS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INCLUDING LVS AND TCC WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 71 34 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 66 26 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 32 68 33 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 69 28 68 29 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 28 69 28 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 60 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 40 66 41 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 67 38 68 39 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 29 65 28 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 56 28 57 29 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 24 59 26 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 65 29 66 29 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 67 33 67 35 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 38 72 39 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 40 66 40 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 35 71 35 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 45 73 45 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 45 76 44 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 39 76 41 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 41 76 43 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 38 79 38 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 42 76 44 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 45 81 42 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 40 69 40 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 40 72 41 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 34 70 35 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 37 70 37 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 41 70 40 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 43 76 43 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 39 71 40 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 70 39 70 39 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 73 33 74 34 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 35 74 35 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 36 70 36 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 47 82 47 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 75 39 76 39 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 80 46 80 45 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 43 78 43 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 45 85 45 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 80 46 82 47 / 20 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 81 47 83 46 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 46 82 45 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 47 86 46 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 78 46 77 44 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 73 45 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
458 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW MAY LINGER ON THE HILLTOPS. MONDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN INTENSE TEMPERATURE
ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, 40S SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A NARROW BUT
INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST,
OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE SAME AREA FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY? IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER,
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EARLY
TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH
SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA
VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT. I WENT WITH MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE NORTH, WITH 850S
BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER THE HILLS. STILL
CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE COLUMN. ITS
VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2 INCHES BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL TAKE
LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO GRASSY
SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST LIKELY
HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC. HIGHLIGHTED
THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WET PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING WAVES ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY-FRIDAY COURTESY OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN FOR PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF MIXED SNOW CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. GRIDS
ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND/OR MODEL TRENDS. WETTEST
DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH AREAL AVERAGE OF ROUGHLY ONE
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...AND FRI-FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES
THROUGH WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN GFS/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. EXTENDED BRINGS TRUTH TO THE
MEANING... APRIL SHOWERS... BRING MAY FLOWERS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE AND WET. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL... TRENDS APPEAR TO BE RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AT LEAST ON THE UPSIDE... TEMPS
DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE SEASONAL NORM...
AND A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXITING THE
TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...THOUGH FUEL ALT CIG WILL LINGER
BRIEFLY FOR KBGM-KITH. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT WAVE
WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER IMPACT
SNOW MOST PROBABLE FOR KITH-KELM-KBGM...THOUGH IN TIME MIXING WITH
RAIN ESPECIALLY KELM. KSYR-KRME ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP...ONLY
HIGHER END MVFR CIG AND VIS FIGURED FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY...IF PRECIP BAND SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE NORTHWARD
THEN IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD RESULT. MEANWHILE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KAVP...THOUGH SCT -SHRA WILL PROBABLY SKIM
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY WESTERLY 10 KTS OR
LESS /GUSTS 15-20 KTS KAVP THIS AFTERNOON/...BECOMING VARIABLE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NIGHT-THURS...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COULD BE MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
445 AM UPDATE...
HYDROLOGY IMPACTS OF SNOWMELT AND RECENT RAIN...IS NOW GENERALLY IN
THEIR WANING STAGES. FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA...VESTAL IS JUST SLIPPING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND CONKLIN NOT FAR FROM DOING SO AS WELL. WE
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL ASSOCIATED FLOOD WARNINGS SHORTLY.
TIOUGHNIOGA HAS CRESTED AT CORTLAND AND IS ON ITS WAY DOWN...BUT
STILL ABOUT 0.8 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO THAT FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR NOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO GET BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AROUND LATE MORNING. SEVERAL OTHER POINTS IN TIOGHNIOGA- CHENANGO-
UNADILLA- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA RIVERS...AND WALTON OF WEST BRANCH
UPPER DELAWARE...ARE ABOVE ACTION STAGE YET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...AND ARE NOW FALLING HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...THE SUSQUEHANNA IN TOWANDA-MESHOPPEN AREAS IS NOW IN
CRESTING /BELOW ACTION STAGE/...WHILE WILKES-BARRE IS EXPECTED TO
DO SO LATER TODAY AROUND 16.5 FEET /ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN ACTION
STAGE AND FLOOD STAGE/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW MAY LINGER ON THE HILLTOPS. MONDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN INTENSE TEMPERATURE
ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, 40S SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A NARROW BUT
INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST,
OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE SAME AREA FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY? IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER,
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EARLY
TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH
SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA
VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT. I WENT WITH MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE NORTH, WITH 850S
BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER THE HILLS. STILL
CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE COLUMN. ITS
VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2 INCHES BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL TAKE
LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO GRASSY
SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST LIKELY
HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC. HIGHLIGHTED
THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...
EXTENDED BRINGS TRUTH TO THE MEANING... APRIL SHOWERS... BRING MAY
FLOWERS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND WET. MULTP WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE RGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL... TRENDS
APPEAR TO BE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AT
LEAST ON THE UPSIDE... TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THE SEASONAL NORM... AND A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND MAY
OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS NOW EXITING THE
TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...THOUGH FUEL ALT CIG WILL LINGER
BRIEFLY FOR KBGM-KITH. OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT WAVE
WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER IMPACT
SNOW MOST PROBABLE FOR KITH-KELM-KBGM...THOUGH IN TIME MIXING WITH
RAIN ESPECIALLY KELM. KSYR-KRME ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP...ONLY
HIGHER END MVFR CIG AND VIS FIGURED FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY...IF PRECIP BAND SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE NORTHWARD
THEN IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD RESULT. MEANWHILE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KAVP...THOUGH SCT -SHRA WILL PROBABLY SKIM
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY WESTERLY 10 KTS OR
LESS /GUSTS 15-20 KTS KAVP THIS AFTERNOON/...BECOMING VARIABLE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NIGHT-THURS...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COULD BE MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
10 AM UPDATE...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT CONKLIN AND
VESTAL. CRESTS THIS EVENING AND BACK BELOW FS SUNDAY MORNING. REST
OF POINTS SHOULD STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
445 AM UPDATE...
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SEVERAL FEET THIS WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM THAT IS BEGINNING TO EXIT
/WITH SOME PLACES FINISHING UP WITH ANOTHER TENTH INCH OR TWO
BEFORE DAWN/. COLDER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LESS
RUNOFF AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO BEGIN DROPPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIVERS IN THE UPPER SUSQUEHANNA...CHENANGO...TIOUGHNIOGA AND WEST
BRANCH DELAWARE BASINS WILL BE THE MOST SENSITIVE TO THE MELTING
SNOW AND RAINFALL...WITH LEVELS FORECAST TO CREST BETWEEN 3/4
AND BANKFULL. THE TIOUGHNIOGA HAS HAD THE MOST RESPONSE SO
FAR...WITH THE ITASKA GAGE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAVING BRIEFLY HIT
FLOOD STAGE /NOW BELOW/...AND THE CORTLAND GAGE EXPECTED TO REACH
ITS 8.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING...THUS A FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT POINT BUT ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WATER IN A FEW OTHER SPOTS
WITHIN THE BASINS MENTIOEND ABOVE...COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
AND SPILL INTO THE NATURAL FLOOD PLAIN OUTSIDE THE RIVER BANK. NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IF THIS OCCURS. IN OTHER
BASINS...RIVERS SHOULD CREST BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 BANKFULL.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY`S INCREASING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. NOTHING BEING REPORTED YET FROM ANY OF THE WEATHER
OBSERVING SITES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE IN
EASTERN WYOMING WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH IN THE COLDER/MOISTER AIR MASS. MODELS CONTINUE
HAVING TROUBLE INITIALIZING ON CURRENT SCENARIO...HOWEVER THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IS CLOSEST TO REALITY. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR AND THE HRRR...MAIN ADJUSTEMENT WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/GFS 850MB-650MB STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION FIELD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
RADAR SIGNATURES SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BOWMAN RADAR AS WELL SHOWS SOME RETURNS THAT ARE LIKELY STILL VIRGA.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW LOW LEVEL 925 MB NEARLY SATURATED RH FIELDS
MOVE FROM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THIS TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER SUNSET. ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A LARGE CIRRUS FIELD IS MOVING EAST INTO
THE STATE. A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER AT ESTEVAN BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE
MORES NORTHEAST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
BEFORE MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS TO DELAY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LATEST HRRR DOES INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
AFTER 03Z NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND/OR SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA TO ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LINGERING MVFR
STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST EXTENDING BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SKY IS CLEAR TO SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. ROLLA
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW NOW...ALTHOUGH WITH RADAR ECHOS ON THE
DECREASE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
ZERO IMPACTS.
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS MONTANA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO AND
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE INTO THE
REGION. LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. MODELS DEPICT THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS MY NORTHEAST TO
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MY NORTH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWARD EXTENT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS THE LOWER CIGS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MY NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO AFTER 06Z.
MODELS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND WILL TAKE TIME TO
SATURATE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN I WOULD LIKE...SO KEPT
POPS BELOW LIKELY WORDING THROUGH 12Z. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SO OPTED TO KEEP
LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED FOR THE 12-18Z AND 18-00Z PERIODS. WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE WE PROJECT 1 TO NEAR 2 INCHES OF SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AND
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY...AND TRAVERSING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA
BY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE IN EACH DAY/NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY/GREAT
LAKES REGION. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FORECASTING SNOW
AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH EACH MODEL RUN DEPICTING
WHEN/WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...AND HENCE DAY/NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING. TODAY`S MODELS SUGGEST THAT
DURING THIS 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD (SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTN) THAT 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN...SOMETIMES MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW...DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS FROM THE 40S TUESDAY...WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KISN/KMOT BETWEEN 09Z-12Z SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
MIGRATING ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD FALL SHORT
IN GETTING INTO KBIS/KDIK/KJMS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT AT
KJMS WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE FORCAST BY 02Z MONDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
A BAND OF MID CLOUD IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON MINOT RADAR...WITH
CIGS AROUND 7K FEET. GFS BEST PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE...WHILE NAM
IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH MODELS DO GENERATE PRECIP BUT
ALTHOUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN RADAR...NAM IS MORE REALISTIC IN
DRYING THINGS UP AS IT MOVES EAST WHILE THE GFS IS RATHER BULLISH
WITH QPF ALONG TRI BORDER AREA BETWEEN SASK/ND/MB. THUS WILL ADD
SOME LOW POPS IN USING GFS AS PLACEMENT...BUT KEEP NO
ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE A BIT
BETTER AS WELL. OVERALL NOT VERY IMPRESSED AS NE FLOW WILL BE HARD
TO OVERCOME...AND THAT STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER S CNTRL ND ADVECTING
EAST A BIT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO INCREASED SKY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL AFT 18Z...SO NO
CHANGES MADE TO POPS. OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL FOR TOWNER COUNTY AND
SURROUNDING AREA LOOKING MINIMAL. NAM DOES SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BAND
ALONG I94 CORRIDOR SUN NIGHT. WILL NOT ADDRESS THIS UPDATE UNTIL
NEW GFS DATA COMES IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT
CLOUD BAND OVER NORTHEAST ND SHOWING STRIATED APPEARANCE AND
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TO DISSIPATE AS SUN GOES
DOWN...HOWEVER A BIT MOVE OVERCAST ACROSS TOWNER AND CAVALIER
COUNTIES. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT LOWS IF THEY STAY
TOGETHER...HOWEVER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW...DRY AIR ADVECTING IN
SHOULD HELP ERODE THIS AREA UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD CIGS OVER SW MB
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. USED TEMP BIASED TRENDS FOR NEW OVERNIGHT
CURVE...WHICH BRINGS COLDER AIR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE CHILLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. HRRR DOES BRING
SOME PRECIP INTO TOWNER COUNTY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS NOT
MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE FEW ECHOES ON RADAR THAT TRACKED THROUGH THE KDVL REGION
ERODED AS THEY MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. NOT MUCH
LEFT ON RADAR UPSTREAM SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
ONLY THING THAT REMAINS IS A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN MN BACK
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS OVER THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING
WITH MORE CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS LOWS WILL
DEPEND HIGHLY ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF
ON THE SUNDAY PCPN BAND. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING GETTING
CLOSE TO THE FA UNTIL AFTER 18Z. AT THAT POINT THE 12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ONLY BRING A GLANCING SHOT TO THE KDVL REGION. HOW
THINGS EVOLVE FROM THEN ARE STILL PRETTY MUDDLED. HOWEVER THE
TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR ANOTHER BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA AND HANG AROUND INTO MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND AND HIGHWAY 10 IN MN. HARD
TO BELIEVE THERE WOULD BE MUCH FOR PCPN AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF IS
ACTUALLY THE MOST ROBUST...SHOWING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY CONTINUES INTO TUE. 12Z
GFS/NAM SHOW ANOTHER PCPN BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. GFS SHOWS
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR GREATER. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS
BASICALLY DRY. MAINTAINED SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO AVOID FLIP
FLOPPING IN THE FORECAST AND WILL HOPE LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY QPF. THERE COULD BE A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE
SOUTH LATE THU INTO SAT...THAT WOULD BRING RAIN DURING THE DAY AND
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL AND
HINGE ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION OCCURS. AT THIS POINT THE WARMER AREAS
COULD BE IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE...BUT FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH AND MID CLOUD WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT AND LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING. DVL MAY SEE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW
AFTN AND POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VSBYS. NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS STRONGEST IN
CENTRAL ND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY
TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. IF THE
LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT...BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL END UP BEING GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. RAINS WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARM AND
DRY WITH FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF A STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE
AS SOME MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A POSSIBLE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS A WEEK FROM TODAY. 42
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...IN RELATION
TO LOWER PLAINS PRESSURES...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 66 81 67 83 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 66 82 69 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 70 79 71 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1051 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
High pressure ridge axis off to the east this morning, with gusty
southerly flow dominating the region. Some cirrus to the south,
edging into Central Illinois, and will provide some scattered thin
cloud cover. However, the clouds will have little impact on the
warming into the mid to upper 60s today. No updates anticipated at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central
Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s,
located near the large fair weather system. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary was located over northern Iowa eastward through extreme
southern Wisconsin with a band of showers occurring mainly north of
the boundary. The last few satellite loops indicating some patchy
mid clouds spilling east across the region this morning but most of
the forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
suggest the bulk of the more extensive cloud cover today will remain
to our north. Forecast soundings off the HRRR and Rapid Refresh
depicting another well mixed boundary layer again today which should
result in temperatures at or above guid values, and with the deep
mixing occurring this afternoon, rather low relative humidities and
gusty southwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Position of frontal boundary will remain a significant challenge
much of the week. General philosophy remains the same as the
previous model runs, although with a bit of a slower southward push
late Tuesday. Because of that, bumped up high temperatures a few
degrees. Much of the model guidance shows upper 70s across the
southwest CWA Tuesday afternoon, although the far north is expected
to be about 10 degrees cooler with the front much closer.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s Wednesday with some lower
70s south, as the front drops to near the I-70 corridor before
heading back north. Also warmed Thursday highs with mid-upper 70s
common.
With much of the week featuring rain chances, have tried to do some
refining of potential dry periods. With the atmosphere remaining
capped much of Monday, have scaled back PoP`s to mainly the
afternoon, and featured generally slight chances except far
northwest and far southeast. Monday night, have continued the likely
PoP`s most areas, as thunderstorms expand along the frontal boundary
just to our north. However, the precipitation threat will diminish
from south to north as capping becomes more prominent in the warm
sector.
With the front sagging southward, it currently appears Wednesday
should be dry over much of the area north of I-72, but PoP`s ramp up
again quickly as developing low pressure over the central Plains
drags the front northward once again. A closed upper low, which will
develop after a wave moves onshore Tuesday, continues to be a
pivotal player in the ultimate evolution of this front/low. The
longer range models are coming into closer agreement, although the
GFS remains on a faster track (ECMWF still has it over northwest
Wisconsin by Saturday morning, while the GFS is over Lake Huron).
Thursday remains the most unstable period, with the GFS-progged
CAPE`s approaching 2000 J/kg in the afternoon, although 0-6km bulk
shear values expected to be low, favoring more of a hail/wind severe
potential.
With the upper low remaining rather prominent late in the week, the
corresponding surface cyclone will be wrapping up, with a prominent
dry slot punching through on Friday. Have maintained some low chance
PoP`s on Friday, although this would mainly be in across the eastern
eastern CWA during the morning. With breezy southwest winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are still expected to reach near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. High pressure off to
our southeast was producing a broad southwest flow across the region
early this morning. A frontal boundary to our north has produced
some scattered to broken mid clouds which have affected our northern
TAF sites early this morning. Those should push off to our east this
morning with some sct-bkn cirrus moving in for the remainder of the
day. Models indicating moisture will increase at all levels tonight
so we should see more clouds, especially later tonight when forecast
soundings suggest a band of low VFR or possibly MVFR cigs will track
from south to north across the TAF sites mainly after 06z. Surface
winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest today with prevailing
speeds of 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts possible later
this morning through the mid afternoon hours before we see winds start
to decrease out of the south this evening to around 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
641 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
417 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS WFO LOT CWA SITS BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE
FOR WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR HAS DEPICTED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL
CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 10 KFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN JUST A
PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME VIRGA ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PASSES. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
WINDS DECREASE. AS WINDS SLACK OFF THIS AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FAR
NORTH SHORE AREA WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO THE 50S/40S AS
EVENING APPROACHES. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY COMBINE WITH SAGGING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH PERSISTENT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP IT
FROM MAKING MUCH GROUND INTO NORTHERN IL AND MODELS GENERALLY KEEP
IT ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES AND JET ENERGY EMANATING
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TO OUR
SOUTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
CAROLINAS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...FRONT TO OUR NORTH DEVELOPS
SOUTH INTO IL/IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR LIFT MONDAY NIGHT AS
WAVE APPROACHES WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN POPS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8.0 C/KM IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDER
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER POTENTIAL
LINGER TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
417 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...
WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN BEHIND IT. AFTER
SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...IT APPEARS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND COOL LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES A RENEWED PUSH
OF WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES THROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND...WITH A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE
AND DEEPENING THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS IL/IN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN WARM/MOIST
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SPC DAY 4
OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BOTH
INDICATE THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT AND DIMINISHING PRECIP
CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FRONT STRETCHED WEST-
EAST ACROSS CWA...LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAKES DAILY TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE RANGE FROM 40S/50S
NORTH WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKES OCCURS...TO THE 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN INCLUDING SOUTHERN CWA.
RATZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
455 AM CDT
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TODAY.
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MET.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS MIXING OUT TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BY
LATE THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
SINCE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO CRITICAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THRU MID AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS THE MID 20 KT RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING PREVAILING
WINDS/GUSTS TO ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT.
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH SOME HIGH BASED CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO A MID DECK MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. EAST WINDS.
* WEDNESAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR.
EAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THRU MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH 30 KTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF/NORTH TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
613 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central
Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s,
located near the large fair weather system. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary was located over northern Iowa eastward through extreme
southern Wisconsin with a band of showers occurring mainly north of
the boundary. The last few satellite loops indicating some patchy
mid clouds spilling east across the region this morning but most of
the forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
suggest the bulk of the more extensive cloud cover today will remain
to our north. Forecast soundings off the HRRR and Rapid Refresh
depicting another well mixed boundary layer again today which should
result in temperatures at or above guid values, and with the deep
mixing occurring this afternoon, rather low relative humidities and
gusty southwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Position of frontal boundary will remain a significant challenge
much of the week. General philosophy remains the same as the
previous model runs, although with a bit of a slower southward push
late Tuesday. Because of that, bumped up high temperatures a few
degrees. Much of the model guidance shows upper 70s across the
southwest CWA Tuesday afternoon, although the far north is expected
to be about 10 degrees cooler with the front much closer.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s Wednesday with some lower
70s south, as the front drops to near the I-70 corridor before
heading back north. Also warmed Thursday highs with mid-upper 70s
common.
With much of the week featuring rain chances, have tried to do some
refining of potential dry periods. With the atmosphere remaining
capped much of Monday, have scaled back PoP`s to mainly the
afternoon, and featured generally slight chances except far
northwest and far southeast. Monday night, have continued the likely
PoP`s most areas, as thunderstorms expand along the frontal boundary
just to our north. However, the precipitation threat will diminish
from south to north as capping becomes more prominent in the warm
sector.
With the front sagging southward, it currently appears Wednesday
should be dry over much of the area north of I-72, but PoP`s ramp up
again quickly as developing low pressure over the central Plains
drags the front northward once again. A closed upper low, which will
develop after a wave moves onshore Tuesday, continues to be a
pivotal player in the ultimate evolution of this front/low. The
longer range models are coming into closer agreement, although the
GFS remains on a faster track (ECMWF still has it over northwest
Wisconsin by Saturday morning, while the GFS is over Lake Huron).
Thursday remains the most unstable period, with the GFS-progged
CAPE`s approaching 2000 J/kg in the afternoon, although 0-6km bulk
shear values expected to be low, favoring more of a hail/wind severe
potential.
With the upper low remaining rather prominent late in the week, the
corresponding surface cyclone will be wrapping up, with a prominent
dry slot punching through on Friday. Have maintained some low chance
PoP`s on Friday, although this would mainly be in across the eastern
eastern CWA during the morning. With breezy southwest winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are still expected to reach near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. High pressure off to
our southeast was producing a broad southwest flow across the region
early this morning. A frontal boundary to our north has produced
some scattered to broken mid clouds which have affected our northern
TAF sites early this morning. Those should push off to our east this
morning with some sct-bkn cirrus moving in for the remainder of the
day. Models indicating moisture will increase at all levels tonight
so we should see more clouds, especially later tonight when forecast
soundings suggest a band of low VFR or possibly MVFR cigs will track
from south to north across the TAF sites mainly after 06z. Surface
winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest today with prevailing
speeds of 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts possible later
this morning through the mid afternoon hours before we see winds start
to decrease out of the south this evening to around 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
634 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS
EVENING BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE SLIDES BY
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT ANY CLOUDINESS OVER OUR
AREA TO BE THIN ENOUGH THAT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT AFTERNOON
THERMAL MIXING ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
OUTPERFORMED GUIDANCE SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH FULL SUN AND DEEP
MIXING...THEREFORE MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB AGAIN ON SUNDAY PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WARRANTS A TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. 05Z RAP WAS AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SO USED 05Z RAP FOR HIGHS AFTER KNOCKING IT
DOWN ONE DEGREE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MIXING DEPTH AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECT
WINDS TO BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY... LIKELY IN THE 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN DURING MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN THE REGION BUT QUESTIONS DO CONTINUE WITH TIMING OF
WAVES AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY MONDAY WITH PWATS CREEPING
TOWARD ONE INCH AND THETA E RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO
STRONG FORCING. MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING BOUNDARY. BEYOND
THIS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE WITH TIMING ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AFTER FIRST WAVE THAT WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. RELUCTANTLY STAYED WITH BLENDED INIT OF LIKELY POPS FOR
COLLABORATION PURPOSES WITH CONCERNS OVER CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THAT
HAVE YET TO BE MODELED. MAIN COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE.
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND CONSISTENCY FOR NOW WITH MODEL
CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRENGTH OF A COUPLE
WAVES BUT NARROWING DOWN STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD LEAN TOWARD WARM
FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY THEN MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IT WILL BE VFR BUT BREEZY WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT VFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-96 BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW DAYS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF I-96 EARLY AS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS
ARE WARMING.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING BUT WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AT REED CITY AND BIG RAPIDS.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-96 AT 10 AM. WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AZO/BTL/JXN COULD REACH 65. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NORTH OF I-96 STUCK IN
THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST FROM WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN SO FAR IS GOING INTO MOISTENING THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF AND SO WE SCALED BACK ON ACCUMS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH CONFIDENCE SYSTEM DUE TO IT/S
DEPENDENCE ON MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHED A TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA A FEW
HOURS AGO AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS 30+ DBZ WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
SREF/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO
ALMA LINE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
60. BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR FROM ONTARIO. MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TUESDAY. LI/S NEAR -4C COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG POINT TOWARD SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-96. TSRA
WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER RISK
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A NEAR FREEZING
LOW LEVEL LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT UP AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNT
PLEASANT. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR MAINLY
NORTH OF A ALMA TO LUDINGTON LINE. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT LESS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WARM FRONT
SITUATED OVER LOWER MI WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDER RISK. HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAWING UP GULF MOISTURE THU INTO
THU NIGHT...SENDING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS.
INSTABILITY ARRIVES AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED AS WELL. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL LATER THU NIGHT OR FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
THUNDER RISK FOR FRI AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO PREVAIL AS
THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN. VALUES OVER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON THE LAKE EXPECTED. 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
723 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GRT LKS BTWN CUTOFF H5 LO OVER NRN QUEBEC
AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SPRAWLING SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA...WITH A RDG AXIS ORIENTED SE INTO LK
SUP. THE UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HI. THE 00Z PWAT WAS 0.13 INCH AT INL /45 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND
ONLY 0.05 INCH AT YPL AND THE PAS MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME CLDS OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT DRAPED W-E ACROSS THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE ARE SOME SCT MID CLDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHRTWV THAT IS SHEARING OUT IN THE NW UPPER
FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF. SOME LO CLDS AND EVEN A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE ALSO DVLPD OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE LO PRES TROF. TEMPS TO THE N ARE
QUITE CHILLY AS WELL...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP -20C AT YPL. LOOKING TO THE
S...THERE IS A BAND OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FM SRN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH APRCH OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND SOME
WAA/FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85 WARM FNT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS
A SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES RDG. HI
CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT RA IS FALLING ALONG THE NDAKOTA/SDAKOTA BORDER DESPITE VERY
DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON CLDS TODAY AND THEN
POPS/SN AMOUNTS FOR TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW RIDING OVER THE
ROCKIES RDG AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TDAY...AS WEAK SHRTWV CAUSING BAND OF PCPN IN CENTRAL WI SLIDES TO
THE ESE...THIS AREA OF PCPN WL REMAIN S OF UPR MI. OTHERWISE...MID
LVL SUBSIDENCE/HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP WL BRING MAINLY DRY WX.
SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LO CLDS WL PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE NCNTRL CWA WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE ENE WIND THAT WL SLOW THE ADVECTION OF THE VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN IN ONTARIO. ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES THIS MRNG IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL. WITH AN ENE WIND...EXPECT BLO NORMAL
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHILLY WATERS OF THE GREAT LKS. DEEPER
MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ALLOW TEMPS NEAR THE WI
BORDER TO REACH THE LO 40S AWAY FM ANY LK MODERATION AND DESPITE SOME
INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN.
TNGT...MODELS INDICATE UPR CONFLUENCE ZN WL RETREAT TO THE N...
ALLOWING SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TO APRCH. WITH THE
RETREAT OF THE CONFLUENCE ZN...UPR MI IS PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE
RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT AVER FAR SW QUEBEC/
ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT. AS THE H85 WARM FNT/MID LVL FGEN BAND
SHIFT TO THE N UNDER THE DVLPG UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF THE JET
STREAK...A BAND OF WAA SN TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE WI BORDER IN THE EVNG AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N
THRU THE N...ENVELOPING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z MON.
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.30 INCH QPF OVER THE
SCENTRAL...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE
2.5-3.0 G/KG RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WET SN ACCUMS WITH
NARROW/HIER DGZ MAY APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO THE WEATHER PATTERN AWAY FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A WESTERLY FLOW BY MID WEEK. WHILE THAT
OCCURS...SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE AREA AND ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THAT FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME SHIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA. THAT WILL BE THE FIRST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIATIONS IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...THEY SEEM TO HAVE NARROWED IN ON THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DURING THAT
TIME...THINK THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL
NORTHWARD PUSH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THAT BETTER PRECIPITATION...THE THERMAL PROFILE
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING AND WOULD EXPECT THE P-TYPE TO REMAIN
AS SNOW. BUT AS THE FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS
THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION WILL CUT OUT AND THE SUB
800MB THERMAL PROFILE IS HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THAT
WOULD LEAD TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POTENTIAL FOR FZRA WHERE TEMPS ARE
AROUND FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GET OVERLY
DETAILED AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL SHOW A MENTION OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING ALOFT. FORCING DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.P. BEFORE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL NEAR THE
WI BORDER AND THE SOUTHERN U.P. LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
DOES HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDS)...BUT THE
MAIN FORCING/MOISTURE IS BELOW THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL REGION.
THUS..WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIQUID IN IT OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS YOU HEAD NORTH ACROSS
THE U.P. THEREFORE...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
THE IMPACT FROM THIS PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST KEEPING COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARMING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL (EXCEPT ON EXISTING COLD SURFACES)...BUT COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN WHERE
THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE SNOW
WILL BE DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING...LIMITING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY WILL EXCEED 3 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1.5IN OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO NOSE BACK SOUTH AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THAT NEXT WAVE IS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THAT PERIOD. WON/T GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE
EVOLVING IDEAS IN THE MODELS...BUT THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE WARMING BETWEEN 925-
700MB (PEAKING BETWEEN 1 AND 6C)...WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION FALL
AS A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING
AT OR AROUND FREEZING WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACK...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIP TYPES. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH
WARM AIR TO SUPPORT RAIN FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FZRA IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING) BEFORE POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH AND HAS SHIFTED IT
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW. LOOKING AT THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...THAT FASTER TREND SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL IN ALL...WITH
THIS PERIOD STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WON/T GET TOO DETAILED AND SHOW
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR POPS AND P-TYPE.
FINALLY...EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR RETREATS TO THE NORTH BUT STILL STAYING AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
AN UPSLOPE ENE WIND WITH SOME MOISTENING OFF LK SUP WL RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAW INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SINCE THE LLVL AIRMASS
AT CMX IS MUCH DRIER AND THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
IWD...THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE VFR WX. THICKENING HIER CLDS WL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY/THIS EVNG IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND
SLOWLY APRCHG WARM FNT. SN IN ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES WL
OVERSPREAD IWD AND SAW OVERNGT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IF
THE SN BAND EDGES FARTHER TO THE N...IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY MAY OCCUR
AT THESE SITES. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS LIKELY TO STAY S OF CMX AND
THE DRIER AIR THERE...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THERE THRU
06/12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
709 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-96 BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW DAYS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST FROM WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN SO FAR IS GOING INTO MOISTENING THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF AND SO WE SCALED BACK ON ACCUMS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH CONFIDENCE SYSTEM DUE TO IT/S
DEPENDENCE ON MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHED A TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA A FEW
HOURS AGO AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS 30+ DBZ WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
SREF/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO
ALMA LINE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
60. BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR FROM ONTARIO. MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TUESDAY. LI/S NEAR -4C COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG POINT TOWARD SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-96. TSRA
WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER RISK
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A NEAR FREEZING
LOW LEVEL LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT UP AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNT
PLEASANT. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR MAINLY
NORTH OF A ALMA TO LUDINGTON LINE. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT LESS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WARM FRONT
SITUATED OVER LOWER MI WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDER RISK. HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAWING UP GULF MOISTURE THU INTO
THU NIGHT...SENDING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS.
INSTABILITY ARRIVES AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED AS WELL. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL LATER THU NIGHT OR FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
THUNDER RISK FOR FRI AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO PREVAIL AS
THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN. VALUES OVER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON THE LAKE EXPECTED. 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
959 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
NOT PLANNING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LARGE AREA OF ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR W THIS MORNING. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR SEEM
A BIT TOO SLOW/FAR WEST WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY
AIR AOB 700 MB ON 12Z KJAN RAOB DO THINK IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND RAIN TO SPREAD EAST. EXPECT
INCREASING/THICKENING MID/HI CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING RISK OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH GROUND
FROM THE WEST AS WELL. WITH MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 60S/70S. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO HAVE THESE TRENDS HANDLED WELL FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR EVOLUTION
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ADJUST AS NEEDED...MAY
ALSO NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS DOWN IF THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN ARRIVE A BIT
SOONER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...DESPITE CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF IT. HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORIES AS
RAIN SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...BOUTS OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A RESULT OF MODERATE RAINFALL BEING OBSERVED ON STATION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS...WHILE A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A 1028MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND A 1004MB LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WAS
OVER OUR CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED A PW NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL HELP DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVER OUR
CWA TODAY WITH GREATER WAA TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. IT WILL TAKE ALL MORNING TO MOISTEN OUR AIRMASS BUT HI-RES
MODELS BRING RAIN INTO OUR SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM
THE WEST OVER OUR CWA. DESPITE A RATHER CHILLY START THIS MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 70S AT MOST SITES WHICH IS
JUST SHY OF NORMAL. BY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA AND COMBINE WITH A SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID MORNING MONDAY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA LEAVING A WARMER AND MUCH MOISTER
AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID 60S
ALONG WITH A PW ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF. ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. CONVECTION WILL WAIN WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CARRY OVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NORMAL LOWS RUN
AROUND 50F. /22/
LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE
WARM AND RATHER HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES AND
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT IMPINGES FROM THE
SOUTH. DESPITE THE INHERENT INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION
TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST THESE DAYS OWING TO LACK OF FORCING AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON-NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW AGREES THAT A LARGE DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO
THE PLAINS IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PUSH THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH ASCENT ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS PERIOD TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS A
GOOD DEAL FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EBB. CONSIDERING THE
ABOVE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN TORNADIC MODES IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO FOCUS ON
IN THE HWO.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A
SCENARIO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD BE THE
PROVERBIAL TIP OF THE ICEBERG OF ACTIVE WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAID
OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY BY THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL STALL AND TRIGGER MORE STORMS SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET...THIS TIME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO YET...BUT AT THIS
JUNCTURE A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 59 79 65 / 31 70 64 19
MERIDIAN 74 58 78 63 / 10 63 67 27
VICKSBURG 71 60 81 65 / 58 71 48 14
HATTIESBURG 78 62 81 65 / 18 46 54 12
NATCHEZ 72 62 81 65 / 63 67 33 10
GREENVILLE 67 58 78 65 / 52 77 62 29
GREENWOOD 71 59 78 65 / 23 77 67 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
08/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES AND MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
PERIOD. AN AREA OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL LOCALES TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...PERHAPS PRODUCING LOCAL SHORT LIVED AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15Z
AND 17Z. THEREAFTER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY
AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS EASTER MORNING...WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...INCLUDING MORNING
READINGS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. A DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WINDY PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...WITH AN ESPECIALLY WINDY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE NM/AZ LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW WEAK 20 DBZ OR LESS RETURNS VICINITY OF GALLUP
AND THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND SERN-MOST ZONES.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS QUITE DRY NEAR/WEST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT
SOME MOISTENING PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS UP 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM SOCORRO TO
ABQ TO TAOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING NOT AS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
EAST OWING TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW BUT HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MAY
BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE SE ZONES IF SURFACE WINDS CAN STAY A BIT
MORE BACKED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 03Z SREF NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF THIS EASTER
MORNING AS WAS 00Z MODEL SUITE BUT INTERESTINGLY ALL THE MODELS
TO VARYING DEGREES SUPPORT A LINEAR-FORCED QPF BAND FROM THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ABQ AREA EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE
I-40 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER FAVORED REGION FROM THE SC MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
NEWD. DID EXPAND MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN
AREAS BUT DECIDED TO AGAINST WIDESPREAD SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN
THAT THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLOSE AFTER 15Z.
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND IT/S APRIL...SO COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL COME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW STEADILY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WARM...DRY AND WINDY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO COOLER POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WINDIEST DAY
FOR MOST AREAS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WINDY ACROSS THE NE QUARTER AS 994MB SURFACE LOW WRAPS
UP AND TRANSLATES NEWD. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
DURING THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD. NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INDICATED
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS/RH
RECOVERY FOR THE EAST. THEN WATCHING ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT LATEST GFS MUCH DRIER FOR OUR AREA TRACKING LOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...PATTERN CERTAINLY TRENDING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SCENARIO ACROSS THE EAST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A TRANSITION TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK...
AS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT APPROACHES NEW MEXICO IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WINDY...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL STEADILY DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST AS WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT CROSSES NEW MEXICO TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. LITTLE WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACT TO STEADILY SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LAYER DRY SLOT REACHES NEW MEXICO.
MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE EAST THUS AIDING THE QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL DOMINATE WESTERN ZONES. AS
RH FALLS BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL AREAS...REACHING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES
MOST AREAS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE
WEST WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
POOR.
BY MONDAY...INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BETTER ALIGN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DRYING CONTINUES AT THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVELS AND WHILE MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP
STRONGER GRADIENTS ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
WINDS. HAINES VALUES WILL EXCEED 5 ALL LOCATIONS AND SINGLE DIGIT RH
VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. RH RECOVERIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POOR.
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND CROSSES THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SOME COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY...UNSTABLE AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AS DOES THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
AS THE BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS RELAX THOUGH STAY STRONG ENOUGH IN THE EAST
TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A WIND SHIFT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN MODEST RH INCREASES MAINLY EAST
AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE FREE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST. 05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY
RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW MAY LINGER ON THE HILLTOPS. MONDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN INTENSE TEMPERATURE
ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN, 40S SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS POINT TO A NARROW BUT
INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING.
IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST,
OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE SAME AREA FOR A
LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY? IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER,
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EARLY
TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT INTO THE DENDRITIC
LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH
SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA
VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT. I WENT WITH MOSTLY
ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA LINE NORTH, WITH 850S
BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER THE HILLS. STILL
CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE COLUMN. ITS
VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2 INCHES BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND EXTREME
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL TAKE
LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO GRASSY
SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST LIKELY
HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC. HIGHLIGHTED
THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WET PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING WAVES ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY-FRIDAY COURTESY OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN FOR PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF MIXED SNOW CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. GRIDS
ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND/OR MODEL TRENDS. WETTEST
DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH AREAL AVERAGE OF ROUGHLY ONE
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...AND FRI-FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES
THROUGH WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN GFS/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. EXTENDED BRINGS TRUTH TO THE
MEANING... APRIL SHOWERS... BRING MAY FLOWERS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE AND WET. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL... TRENDS APPEAR TO BE RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AT LEAST ON THE UPSIDE... TEMPS
DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE SEASONAL NORM...
AND A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BROUGHT A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW FOR KITH-KBGM-KELM...BUT IS NOW GONE. HOWEVER...ATTENTION
ALREADY TURNS TO NEXT INBOUND WAVE WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER IMPACT SNOW MOST PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KELM-KBGM...THOUGH IN TIME MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY KELM.
KSYR-KRME ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP...ONLY HIGHER END MVFR CIG
AND VIS FIGURED FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...IF PRECIP BAND SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE NORTHWARD THEN IFR
RESTRICTIONS COULD RESULT. MEANWHILE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KAVP...THOUGH SCT -SHRA WILL PROBABLY SKIM
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY WESTERLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...BECOMING VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY KAVP WILL HAVE WSW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NIGHT-THURS...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COULD BE MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
445 AM UPDATE...
HYDROLOGY IMPACTS OF SNOWMELT AND RECENT RAIN...ARE NOW GENERALLY IN
THEIR WANING STAGES. FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA...VESTAL IS JUST SLIPPING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND CONKLIN NOT FAR FROM DOING SO AS WELL. WE
WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL ASSOCIATED FLOOD WARNINGS SHORTLY.
TIOUGHNIOGA HAS CRESTED AT CORTLAND AND IS ON ITS WAY DOWN...BUT
STILL ABOUT 0.8 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SO THAT FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR NOW...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO GET BELOW FLOOD STAGE
AROUND LATE MORNING. SEVERAL OTHER POINTS IN TIOGHNIOGA- CHENANGO-
UNADILLA- UPPER SUSQUEHANNA RIVERS...AND WALTON OF WEST BRANCH
UPPER DELAWARE...ARE ABOVE ACTION STAGE YET BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...AND ARE NOW FALLING HAVING CRESTED EARLIER.
MEANWHILE...THE SUSQUEHANNA IN TOWANDA-MESHOPPEN AREAS IS NOW IN
CRESTING /BELOW ACTION STAGE/...WHILE WILKES-BARRE IS EXPECTED TO
DO SO LATER TODAY AROUND 16.5 FEET /ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN ACTION
STAGE AND FLOOD STAGE/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...MDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1018 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH RES 00Z ARW/NMM ARE LEADING THE PACK AS FAR AS VERIFICATION
WITH RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A TAD FAST (AROUND 3
HOURS) WITH THEIR PROJECTIONS OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY. WILL ADJUST
THIS TIMING ERROR AND FOLLOW THEIR LEAD...EACH OF WHICH SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NOW THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I94. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED S/WV APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AS
THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FORCING WANES.
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
THIS MORNING THROUGH 21Z...ALSO NUDGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS I DON`T SEE HOW THEY WILL WARM MUCH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER...FALLING SNOW...AND A COLD EASTERLY FLOW.
THE WEST WILL THEN BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SNOW TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE SNOW NORTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DWINDLE FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD/MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ALL BEING
EJECTED FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS CONTINUES TO INDUCE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND JET STREAKS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE AREA OF STRATUS
STRETCHES FROM CROSBY TO MINOT AND EAST INTO RUGBY. MINOT DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES WITH EARLIER TRENDS WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITY`S
AS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PROPAGATE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PAST RADAR TRENDS
AND HAVE UTILIZED IT ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS FOR POPS IN THE NORTH
TODAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A 110KT JET
STREAK WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT BISMARCK RADAR SHOWS MUCH WEAKER RETURNS
AND EXPECT POPS TO REMAIN MUCH LOWER AS COMPARED TO THE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGHER POPS TO IMPINGE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO SHIFT THROUGH.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 2 AND INTERSTATE 94. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94...NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
ACTIVE...WET WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT NEARLY ALL OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DAILY PATTERN OF SNOW
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHTS...CHANGING OVER TO EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OR ALL RAIN SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND RAIN
MIXING IN WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING THE
PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS LOW INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 15-18Z AS LIGHT SNOW
COMMENCES. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KISN ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW BY
15-18Z SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING VFR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH
04Z MONDAY. AFTER 04Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT
KBIS/KJMS WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDIK. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD/NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
655 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE SNOW NORTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DWINDLE FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD/MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ALL BEING
EJECTED FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS CONTINUES TO INDUCE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND JET STREAKS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE AREA OF STRATUS
STRETCHES FROM CROSBY TO MINOT AND EAST INTO RUGBY. MINOT DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES WITH EARLIER TRENDS WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITY`S
AS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PROPAGATE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PAST RADAR TRENDS
AND HAVE UTILIZED IT ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS FOR POPS IN THE NORTH
TODAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A 110KT JET
STREAK WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT BISMARCK RADAR SHOWS MUCH WEAKER RETURNS
AND EXPECT POPS TO REMAIN MUCH LOWER AS COMPARED TO THE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGHER POPS TO IMPINGE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO SHIFT THROUGH.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 2 AND INTERSTATE 94. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94...NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
ACTIVE...WET WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT NEARLY ALL OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DAILY PATTERN OF SNOW
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHTS...CHANGING OVER TO EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OR ALL RAIN SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND RAIN
MIXING IN WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING THE
PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS LOW INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
IFR CIGS AT KMOT WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 15Z AS LIGHT SNOW COMMENCES.
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KISN ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 15Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE EXPECTING VFR CIGS AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 04Z MONDAY.
AFTER 04Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KBIS/KJMS WITH
IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDIK. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS EVENING. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA TODAY...THEN LIFT NE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THEN STALL...SETTING UP AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT BUT
MAINLY TO REFLECT HRRR RUC AND NAM INDICATIONS THAT THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO OUR NORTH EVENTUALLY DROPS INTO NORTHEAST OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD ACTUALLY BE COMBINED WITH A LAKE
BREEZE GIVEN TIMING BUT SHOULD ALSO LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT.
ALSO MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AND ADDED "LIGHT" TO RAIN
NORTHEAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS EXTREME NW PA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME
SHOWERS LATER TODAY. TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT PRECIP SHOULD
FALL AS ALL RAIN. FRONT WILL LINGER THERE MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN
LIFT NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS A LOT
WILL MANY SUN BREAKS WE GET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SW
OF THE COLD FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 60-65
RANGE. LOCATIONS NE OF THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE WORK WEEK. WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE RAIN SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE
AREA. GULF WIDE OPEN SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS CAPES INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET COINCIDES AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE COUNTIES NORTH OF MANSFIELD COULD SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE POPS ARE TOUGH. THE AREA
WILL BE OR WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY SO DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING POPS COULD BE CHANCE OR LIKELY. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
NIGHT SO CONFIDENT THAT CHANCE POPS ARE GOOD. ON FRIDAY A FRONT
TRIES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS MAY NOT AGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES BUT
THEY DO ON THE MOISTURE...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS. ADDED THUNDER
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A TROF WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH ON FRIDAY. DRYING OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND TROF MOVES NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH AND SETTING UP FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TODAY OVER NW PA...COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME MID CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE GUSTY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IN THE
MEANTIME THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR TOLEDO...ELSEWHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
JUST BELOW LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
GUSTY THE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
OVERNIGHT JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH MID AND LOWER CLOUDS...VFR
STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK.
.OUTLOOK...FREQUENT PERIODS OF NON VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE LAKE FOR TODAY
AND THE UPCOMING WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE
INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WIGGLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
OF THE LAKE AND THE WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST. THE WINDS COULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END. FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AND THE WINDS ON
THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. THEY WILL BE STRONG BUT SINCE IT IS
WARM ADVECTION THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT REACH THE LAKE
SURFACE...HOWEVER...THE SPEEDS COULD BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS PROMPTING THE
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THE ICE IS GONE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT ON THE EAST END. THE NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK WILL ALSO HELP IN THIS PROCESS AS WILL THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MUCH OF THE ICE COULD BE GONE OVER MUCH OF LAKE ERIE EXCEPT THE
EXTREME EAST END BY LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1053 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SE TX THIS MORNING AND NOW NE OF THE AREA OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO E
TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS N
TX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE S
PLAINS WITH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WATER
VAPOR IMGERY ALSO SHOWING POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO S
TX. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT WAS BARELY PUSHING ONSHORE THE MIDDLE
TX COAST AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WAS KEEPING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVING
COME UP INTO THE 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH 50S FARTHER INLAND. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPS TODAY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A
LOT OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SLOWLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH SO
THERE WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MAX TEMPS.
COASTAL AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 70S WITH LOW 60S TOWARDS
CROCKETT. UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS. STILL MENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER S TX POSSIBLY MOVING
OVER THE REGION TO ENHANCE LIFT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
AVIATION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXITING
NORTHEAST WITH A THIN LINE OF -RA/-DZ PASSING ACROSS THE CITY
AT THIS HOUR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS TRAVELING OUT OF
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING AND IS TIMED TO REACH THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE
AN ISOLATED STORM) TO AFFECT SE TX FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND A
VICINITY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNEAKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND WILL
BOTH BE REASONS TO LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR. EARLY EVENING COOLING
SURFACE SHOULD MAKE FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FURTHER LOWERING
OF OVERCAST INTO LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING IFR. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY
TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. IF THE
LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT...BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL END UP BEING GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. RAINS WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARM AND
DRY WITH FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF A STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE
AS SOME MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A POSSIBLE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS A WEEK FROM TODAY. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...IN RELATION
TO LOWER PLAINS PRESSURES...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 66 81 67 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 66 82 69 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 70 79 71 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS
WELL AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
EASTWARD. OVERALL RADAR TRENDS AND RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER TODAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS FOR TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK INCREASINGLY STABLE ON BOTH RADAR AND RADAR DERIVED WIND
PATTERNS. HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT UNIFORM
WINDS AND A PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE ABSENCE OF A FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ADDED
SUNSHINE AND ENHANCE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISBYS ALONG THE
SAT/SSF/AUS SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN
GOING DOWN THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE SAT IS NOW REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. AUS SHOULD GO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRT HAS BEEN HANGING NEAR 3000FT. AM BRINGING DRT
DOWN TO MVFR BUT BY AFTERNOON THE HRRR IS SHOWING WESTERN AREAS TO
GET TO VFR. BECAUSE THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDOING THE RAIN
THIS MORNING...FEEL THAT THE HRRR HAS A BETTER FEEL. I ALSO BRING
SAT/SSF INTO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS BATCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
MOVE NE OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MOST
OF THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION IS MOSTLY WASHED AWAY...LEAVING A REDUCED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW NEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MOST
OF THE RAINS ARE LIGHT SPRINKLES OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE VAD WINDS SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TURNING S TO SW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TX...SO THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMALS.
OVER W TX...SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TRIGGERED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND A DRY-LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO
MONDAY COULD FURTHER INCREASE DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER W TX LATE
MONDAY AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ALOFT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MAINTAINS A ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY SWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A BREEZY AND STABLE PATTERN FOR
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS POPULATION OF POPS SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THIS
STABLE PATTERN FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND A NEWD EJECTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PASSING TO THE NW HELPING TO DRIVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
TX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS PATTERN
IS A BIT BULLISH...AND A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE DRIER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS IS FAVORED OVER A MUCH STORMIER GFS. IF THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS WIN OUT...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 66 82 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 66 80 66 83 / 30 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 66 83 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 64 81 65 83 / 20 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 65 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 65 81 67 83 / 30 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 65 81 66 84 / 20 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 66 82 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 68 81 68 82 / 40 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 66 81 67 83 / 20 10 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 66 81 67 85 / 30 10 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
708 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXITING
NORTHEAST WITH A THIN LINE OF -RA/-DZ PASSING ACROSS THE CITY
AT THIS HOUR. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS TRAVELING OUT OF
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE THIS MORNING AND IS TIMED TO REACH THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE
AN ISOLATED STORM) TO AFFECT SE TX FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND A
VICINITY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNEAKING INTO THE COASTAL BEND WILL
BOTH BE REASONS TO LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR. EARLY EVENING COOLING
SURFACE SHOULD MAKE FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FURTHER LOWERING
OF OVERCAST INTO LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING IFR. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY
TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. IF THE
LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT...BEST RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL END UP BEING GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. RAINS WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARM AND
DRY WITH FALLING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES COME BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF A STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. WE`LL NEED TO WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE
AS SOME MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A POSSIBLE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS A WEEK FROM TODAY. 42
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...IN RELATION
TO LOWER PLAINS PRESSURES...WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 66 81 67 83 / 60 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 66 82 69 83 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 70 79 71 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
700 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK INCREASINGLY STABLE ON BOTH RADAR AND RADAR DERIVED WIND
PATTERNS. HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT UNIFORM
WINDS AND A PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE ABSENCE OF A FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ADDED
SUNSHINE AND ENHANCE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISBYS ALONG THE
SAT/SSF/AUS SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN
GOING DOWN THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE SAT IS NOW REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. AUS SHOULD GO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRT HAS BEEN HANGING NEAR 3000FT. AM BRINGING DRT
DOWN TO MVFR BUT BY AFTERNOON THE HRRR IS SHOWING WESTERN AREAS TO
GET TO VFR. BECAUSE THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDOING THE RAIN
THIS MORNING...FEEL THAT THE HRRR HAS A BETTER FEEL. I ALSO BRING
SAT/SSF INTO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS BATCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
MOVE NE OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MOST
OF THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION IS MOSTLY WASHED AWAY...LEAVING A REDUCED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW NEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MOST
OF THE RAINS ARE LIGHT SPRINKLES OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE VAD WINDS SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TURNING S TO SW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TX...SO THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMALS.
OVER W TX...SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TRIGGERED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND A DRY-LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO
MONDAY COULD FURTHER INCREASE DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER W TX LATE
MONDAY AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ALOFT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MAINTAINS A ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY SWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A BREEZY AND STABLE PATTERN FOR
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS POPULATION OF POPS SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THIS
STABLE PATTERN FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND A NEWD EJECTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PASSING TO THE NW HELPING TO DRIVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
TX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS PATTERN
IS A BIT BULLISH...AND A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE DRIER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS IS FAVORED OVER A MUCH STORMIER GFS. IF THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS WIN OUT...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 66 82 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 66 80 66 83 / 30 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 66 83 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 64 81 65 83 / 20 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 65 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 65 81 67 83 / 30 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 65 81 66 84 / 20 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 82 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 68 81 68 82 / 40 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 66 81 67 83 / 20 10 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 66 81 67 85 / 30 10 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISBYS ALONG THE
SAT/SSF/AUS SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN
GOING DOWN THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE SAT IS NOW REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. AUS SHOULD GO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRT HAS BEEN HANGING NEAR 3000FT. AM BRINGING DRT
DOWN TO MVFR BUT BY AFTERNOON THE HRRR IS SHOWING WESTERN AREAS TO
GET TO VFR. BECAUSE THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDOING THE RAIN
THIS MORNING...FEEL THAT THE HRRR HAS A BETTER FEEL. I ALSO BRING
SAT/SSF INTO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS BATCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
MOVE NE OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MOST
OF THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION IS MOSTLY WASHED AWAY...LEAVING A REDUCED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW NEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MOST
OF THE RAINS ARE LIGHT SPRINKLES OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE VAD WINDS SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TURNING S TO SW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TX...SO THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMALS.
OVER W TX...SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TRIGGERED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND A DRY-LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO
MONDAY COULD FURTHER INCREASE DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER W TX LATE
MONDAY AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ALOFT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MAINTAINS A ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY SWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A BREEZY AND STABLE PATTERN FOR
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS POPULATION OF POPS SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THIS
STABLE PATTERN FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND A NEWD EJECTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PASSING TO THE NW HELPING TO DRIVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
TX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS PATTERN
IS A BIT BULLISH...AND A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE DRIER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS IS FAVORED OVER A MUCH STORMIER GFS. IF THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS WIN OUT...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 66 82 66 84 / 50 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 66 80 66 83 / 60 10 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 66 83 66 84 / 50 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 64 81 65 83 / 40 10 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 65 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 65 81 67 83 / 50 10 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 65 81 66 84 / 30 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 82 66 84 / 60 10 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 68 81 68 82 / 60 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 66 81 67 83 / 30 10 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 66 81 67 85 / 30 10 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1257 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
417 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS WFO LOT CWA SITS BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE
FOR WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR HAS DEPICTED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL
CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 10 KFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN JUST A
PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME VIRGA ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PASSES. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
WINDS DECREASE. AS WINDS SLACK OFF THIS AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FAR
NORTH SHORE AREA WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO THE 50S/40S AS
EVENING APPROACHES. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY COMBINE WITH SAGGING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH PERSISTENT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP IT
FROM MAKING MUCH GROUND INTO NORTHERN IL AND MODELS GENERALLY KEEP
IT ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES AND JET ENERGY EMANATING
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TO OUR
SOUTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
CAROLINAS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...FRONT TO OUR NORTH DEVELOPS
SOUTH INTO IL/IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR LIFT MONDAY NIGHT AS
WAVE APPROACHES WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN POPS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8.0 C/KM IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDER
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER POTENTIAL
LINGER TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
417 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...
WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN BEHIND IT. AFTER
SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...IT APPEARS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND COOL LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES A RENEWED PUSH
OF WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES THROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND...WITH A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE
AND DEEPENING THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS IL/IN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN WARM/MOIST
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SPC DAY 4
OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BOTH
INDICATE THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT AND DIMINISHING PRECIP
CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FRONT STRETCHED WEST-
EAST ACROSS CWA...LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAKES DAILY TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE RANGE FROM 40S/50S
NORTH WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKES OCCURS...TO THE 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN INCLUDING SOUTHERN CWA.
RATZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
455 AM CDT
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TODAY.
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MET.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS MIXING OUT TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BY
LATE THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
SINCE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO CRITICAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY EAST NORTHEAST
BRIEFLY.
* A SHIFT BACK TOWARDS EASTERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ORD.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND LIKELY REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER...A FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE TERMINALS COULD DROP SOUTH SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...A SHIFT TOWARDS AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND WOULD OCCUR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH AND COME CLOSE TO PRIMARILY ORD WITH AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE TAF. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT WITH THIS FRONT HAVING A BETTER
CHANCE OF DROPPING SOUTH VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN AND AS THAT
OCCURS...UPSTREAM MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION IN THE NEAR
TERM...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT AND MVFR CEILINGS VERY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. EAST WINDS.
* WEDNESAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR.
EAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THRU MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH 30 KTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF/NORTH TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
High pressure ridge axis off to the east this morning, with gusty
southerly flow dominating the region. Some cirrus to the south,
edging into Central Illinois, and will provide some scattered thin
cloud cover. However, the clouds will have little impact on the
warming into the mid to upper 60s today. No updates anticipated at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central
Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s,
located near the large fair weather system. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary was located over northern Iowa eastward through extreme
southern Wisconsin with a band of showers occurring mainly north of
the boundary. The last few satellite loops indicating some patchy
mid clouds spilling east across the region this morning but most of
the forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
suggest the bulk of the more extensive cloud cover today will remain
to our north. Forecast soundings off the HRRR and Rapid Refresh
depicting another well mixed boundary layer again today which should
result in temperatures at or above guid values, and with the deep
mixing occurring this afternoon, rather low relative humidities and
gusty southwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Position of frontal boundary will remain a significant challenge
much of the week. General philosophy remains the same as the
previous model runs, although with a bit of a slower southward push
late Tuesday. Because of that, bumped up high temperatures a few
degrees. Much of the model guidance shows upper 70s across the
southwest CWA Tuesday afternoon, although the far north is expected
to be about 10 degrees cooler with the front much closer.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s Wednesday with some lower
70s south, as the front drops to near the I-70 corridor before
heading back north. Also warmed Thursday highs with mid-upper 70s
common.
With much of the week featuring rain chances, have tried to do some
refining of potential dry periods. With the atmosphere remaining
capped much of Monday, have scaled back PoP`s to mainly the
afternoon, and featured generally slight chances except far
northwest and far southeast. Monday night, have continued the likely
PoP`s most areas, as thunderstorms expand along the frontal boundary
just to our north. However, the precipitation threat will diminish
from south to north as capping becomes more prominent in the warm
sector.
With the front sagging southward, it currently appears Wednesday
should be dry over much of the area north of I-72, but PoP`s ramp up
again quickly as developing low pressure over the central Plains
drags the front northward once again. A closed upper low, which will
develop after a wave moves onshore Tuesday, continues to be a
pivotal player in the ultimate evolution of this front/low. The
longer range models are coming into closer agreement, although the
GFS remains on a faster track (ECMWF still has it over northwest
Wisconsin by Saturday morning, while the GFS is over Lake Huron).
Thursday remains the most unstable period, with the GFS-progged
CAPE`s approaching 2000 J/kg in the afternoon, although 0-6km bulk
shear values expected to be low, favoring more of a hail/wind severe
potential.
With the upper low remaining rather prominent late in the week, the
corresponding surface cyclone will be wrapping up, with a prominent
dry slot punching through on Friday. Have maintained some low chance
PoP`s on Friday, although this would mainly be in across the eastern
eastern CWA during the morning. With breezy southwest winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are still expected to reach near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Not much of a shift in the forecast so far. Southwesterly winds a
bit gusty today as sunshine/heating helps to mix down winds aloft
as well as a decent pressure gradient at the sfc. VFR through the
day as cirrus is about all that is streaming over ILX terminals in
a fairly dry airmass. Overnight, winds stay up with the pressure
gradient persisting...and becoming more southerly as the high
pressure ridge axis slips off to the east. Moisture and WAA
resulting in a developing stratus deck in the early morning hours.
Keeping it VFR for now, but timing of the drop to MVFR cigs
starting to show up in half the guidance after 15z or so.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1106 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
417 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS WFO LOT CWA SITS BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE
FOR WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TAKES
SHAPE TO OUR NORTH AND REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TONIGHT. RADAR HAS DEPICTED A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM MID-LEVEL
CLOUD BASES MAINLY ABOVE 10 KFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN JUST A
PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME VIRGA ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PASSES. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
GUST AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY
HOURS...THOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
WINDS DECREASE. AS WINDS SLACK OFF THIS AFTERNOON...A LAKE BREEZE
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FAR
NORTH SHORE AREA WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO THE 50S/40S AS
EVENING APPROACHES. THE LAKE BREEZE MAY COMBINE WITH SAGGING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH PERSISTENT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP IT
FROM MAKING MUCH GROUND INTO NORTHERN IL AND MODELS GENERALLY KEEP
IT ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES AND JET ENERGY EMANATING
FROM AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. TO OUR
SOUTH...EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE
CAROLINAS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
HOWEVER...AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF IT INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...FRONT TO OUR NORTH DEVELOPS
SOUTH INTO IL/IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE. TIGHTENING LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR LIFT MONDAY NIGHT AS
WAVE APPROACHES WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN POPS. STEEP LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8.0 C/KM IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THUNDER
POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER POTENTIAL
LINGER TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
417 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...
WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN BEHIND IT. AFTER
SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS...IT APPEARS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND COOL LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...PROBABLY THE BEST CHANCE
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES A RENEWED PUSH
OF WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES THROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW INITIALLY ALONG
THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND...WITH A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE
AND DEEPENING THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVES TO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS IL/IN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN WARM/MOIST
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SPC DAY 4
OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF RUNS BOTH
INDICATE THE OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT AND DIMINISHING PRECIP
CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH FRONT STRETCHED WEST-
EAST ACROSS CWA...LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAKES DAILY TEMP
FORECAST DIFFICULT. WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE RANGE FROM 40S/50S
NORTH WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKES OCCURS...TO THE 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN INCLUDING SOUTHERN CWA.
RATZER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
455 AM CDT
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TODAY.
DRY...MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MET.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS MIXING OUT TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 MPH BY
LATE THIS MORNING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
SINCE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO CRITICAL RED
FLAG CRITERIA...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THRU MID AFTERNOON.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS THE MID 20 KT RANGE AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING PREVAILING
WINDS/GUSTS TO ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT.
MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH SOME HIGH BASED CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING LOWERING TO A MID DECK MONDAY MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CMS/RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR. CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. EAST WINDS.
* WEDNESAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA. IFR/LIFR.
EAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
323 AM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
STATIONARY THRU MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH 30 KTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF/NORTH TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1051 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
High pressure ridge axis off to the east this morning, with gusty
southerly flow dominating the region. Some cirrus to the south,
edging into Central Illinois, and will provide some scattered thin
cloud cover. However, the clouds will have little impact on the
warming into the mid to upper 60s today. No updates anticipated at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Latest surface analysis showing high pressure over south central
Kentucky with the coldest temperatures, upper 20s to lower 30s,
located near the large fair weather system. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary was located over northern Iowa eastward through extreme
southern Wisconsin with a band of showers occurring mainly north of
the boundary. The last few satellite loops indicating some patchy
mid clouds spilling east across the region this morning but most of
the forecast soundings and time height cross sections continue to
suggest the bulk of the more extensive cloud cover today will remain
to our north. Forecast soundings off the HRRR and Rapid Refresh
depicting another well mixed boundary layer again today which should
result in temperatures at or above guid values, and with the deep
mixing occurring this afternoon, rather low relative humidities and
gusty southwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Position of frontal boundary will remain a significant challenge
much of the week. General philosophy remains the same as the
previous model runs, although with a bit of a slower southward push
late Tuesday. Because of that, bumped up high temperatures a few
degrees. Much of the model guidance shows upper 70s across the
southwest CWA Tuesday afternoon, although the far north is expected
to be about 10 degrees cooler with the front much closer.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s Wednesday with some lower
70s south, as the front drops to near the I-70 corridor before
heading back north. Also warmed Thursday highs with mid-upper 70s
common.
With much of the week featuring rain chances, have tried to do some
refining of potential dry periods. With the atmosphere remaining
capped much of Monday, have scaled back PoP`s to mainly the
afternoon, and featured generally slight chances except far
northwest and far southeast. Monday night, have continued the likely
PoP`s most areas, as thunderstorms expand along the frontal boundary
just to our north. However, the precipitation threat will diminish
from south to north as capping becomes more prominent in the warm
sector.
With the front sagging southward, it currently appears Wednesday
should be dry over much of the area north of I-72, but PoP`s ramp up
again quickly as developing low pressure over the central Plains
drags the front northward once again. A closed upper low, which will
develop after a wave moves onshore Tuesday, continues to be a
pivotal player in the ultimate evolution of this front/low. The
longer range models are coming into closer agreement, although the
GFS remains on a faster track (ECMWF still has it over northwest
Wisconsin by Saturday morning, while the GFS is over Lake Huron).
Thursday remains the most unstable period, with the GFS-progged
CAPE`s approaching 2000 J/kg in the afternoon, although 0-6km bulk
shear values expected to be low, favoring more of a hail/wind severe
potential.
With the upper low remaining rather prominent late in the week, the
corresponding surface cyclone will be wrapping up, with a prominent
dry slot punching through on Friday. Have maintained some low chance
PoP`s on Friday, although this would mainly be in across the eastern
eastern CWA during the morning. With breezy southwest winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are still expected to reach near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. High pressure off to
our southeast was producing a broad southwest flow across the region
early this morning. A frontal boundary to our north has produced
some scattered to broken mid clouds which have affected our northern
TAF sites early this morning. Those should push off to our east this
morning with some sct-bkn cirrus moving in for the remainder of the
day. Models indicating moisture will increase at all levels tonight
so we should see more clouds, especially later tonight when forecast
soundings suggest a band of low VFR or possibly MVFR cigs will track
from south to north across the TAF sites mainly after 06z. Surface
winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest today with prevailing
speeds of 12 to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts possible later
this morning through the mid afternoon hours before we see winds start
to decrease out of the south this evening to around 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS
EVENING BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND
OHIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE SLIDES BY
THROUGH MICHIGAN. THIS FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT ANY CLOUDINESS OVER OUR
AREA TO BE THIN ENOUGH THAT IT WILL DO LITTLE TO LIMIT AFTERNOON
THERMAL MIXING ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONSISTENTLY
OUTPERFORMED GUIDANCE SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH FULL SUN AND DEEP
MIXING...THEREFORE MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB AGAIN ON SUNDAY PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WARRANTS A TREND TOWARDS THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. 05Z RAP WAS AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SO USED 05Z RAP FOR HIGHS AFTER KNOCKING IT
DOWN ONE DEGREE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN A
SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER MIXING DEPTH AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECT
WINDS TO BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY... LIKELY IN THE 15 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN DURING MOST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NO REASON TO DOUBT WITH QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN THE REGION BUT QUESTIONS DO CONTINUE WITH TIMING OF
WAVES AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY MONDAY WITH PWATS CREEPING
TOWARD ONE INCH AND THETA E RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE AREA AS MOISTURE INCREASES BUT NO
STRONG FORCING. MODELS INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH FIRST
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE RIDING BOUNDARY. BEYOND
THIS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON LOW SIDE WITH TIMING ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AFTER FIRST WAVE THAT WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. RELUCTANTLY STAYED WITH BLENDED INIT OF LIKELY POPS FOR
COLLABORATION PURPOSES WITH CONCERNS OVER CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES THAT
HAVE YET TO BE MODELED. MAIN COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE.
CONTINUED WITH BLENDED SOLUTIONS AND CONSISTENCY FOR NOW WITH MODEL
CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN STRENGTH OF A COUPLE
WAVES BUT NARROWING DOWN STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD LEAN TOWARD WARM
FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY THEN MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS IN 15-25KT
RANGE SHOULD CONT THIS AFTN... DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING/MIXING. A WK SHRTWV OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD... BUT PRBLY STILL ABOVE MVFR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
406 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Tonight and Monday...the amplified upper level trough will begin to
approach the northern CA coast by 00Z TUE. A broad area of
southwesterly mid and upper level flow will spread northeast across
the plains states.
Through the evening hours deeper moisture will
spread northward across the CWA. Low stratus has already moved north
into the southeast counties and will spread northward through the
night. The NAM, GFS, RAP and members of the WRF models all show weak
isentropic lift developing at the 290K theta level. This may provide
for periods of light drizzle after midnight and into the mid morning
hours of Monday. I suppose if there is enough drizzle some areas
could see a couple hundredths of an inch of QPF from late Tonight
through the mid morning hours of Monday. Overnight lows will only
drop into the lower 50s, given the southerly winds and low-level
moisture advection through the night.
Monday, An elevated mix layer from the high plains will spread
across the CWA. This will cause a large capping inversion to form.
The forecast soundings show the EML will be at 840MB and the
moisture will only be as deep as 900mb, thus even taking the parcel
from the top of the moist layer would not break the cap.
Therefore, we will not see thunderstorms through the day on Monday.
We may not even see showers once the boundary layer mixes deep
enough to end the low-level isentropic lift and the drizzle chances.
Forecast soundings show the stratus holding for most of the day
across the eastern counties of the CWA. The western counties may
become partly cloudy to mostly sunny. There will most likely be a
rather sharp temperature gradient across the CWA with low to mid 80s
across the southwest counties and highs only reaching to near 70
degrees across the extreme eastern counties of the CWA. Southerly
surface winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 35
MPH as a lee surface low deepens across western KS.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
By Monday night, surface low pressure will be centered over central
Kansas with the dryline expected to track as far east as into
central Kansas with the associated warm front extending into
northeast Kansas. While most models show the surface low slowly
lifting northeast Monday night through Tuesday, there is uncertainty
with how long precipitation will stick around. At this time, the
better chances for precipitation should be focused along and north
of the warm front near the Kansas/Nebraska border, and then shift
into far eastern Kansas as the surface low tracks eastward. What the
models do agree with is a very strong cap being in place Monday
night through Tuesday with a decent amount of elevated CAPE.
However, model soundings show such shallow saturation in the low
levels that confidence is low in even elevated thunderstorms being
able to develop, but a few scattered showers may be possible. With
this system being so slow-moving, models show the associated frontal
boundary being draped across the northern part of the forecast area
by Tuesday morning, however there are model discrepancies with the
exact location. Expect strong southerly flow in the warm sector
Monday night along with partly to mostly cloudy skies, so overnight
low temperatures should be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
However, locations north of the boundary should see a sharper
temperature gradient with lows in the low/mid 50s. This distinct
temperature gradient will continue through the day on Tuesday as
models show the boundary still lingering across the CWA. Once again,
the exact location of this gradient is uncertain due to model
discrepancies in the boundary location, however Tuesday high
temperatures may range from the middle 60s to low/mid 80s. This
boundary will finally shift east of the area Tuesday evening, but
models show the potential for some thunderstorms to develop along
this boundary late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as it
shifts east. However, the models are split on whether or not the cap
will be broken by then, with the NAM showing a strong cap while the
GFS/ECMWF show little to no cap. If the cap is able to weaken enough
to support thunderstorm development, there looks to be upwards of
around 2000 J/kg of CAPE with around 40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, so
some severe thunderstorms would be possible with large hail and
strong winds being the primary threats.
A much stronger system is expected by Wednesday/Wednesday night as
the mid-level trough that will move into the western U.S. on Tuesday
quickly advances into the Rockies by Wednesday and helps to push a
strong low pressure system into the region. Models show a warm front
associated with this next system draped across far southern Kansas
near the Oklahoma border by Wednesday morning, with the boundary
lifting northward into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
evening. However, there is uncertainty with how quickly this front
will surge northward and just how far north it will track. 12z model
runs showed the GFS/GEM tracking faster and further north while the
ECMWF/NAM were slower and thus limited on their northern extension.
While these details will need to be worked out in the coming days,
MUCAPE values may be upwards of at least 1500-2500 J/kg, 30-40+ kts
of 0-6km bulk shear, 0-1km helicity values around 150-250 m2/s2, and
limited CIN. As a result, supercellular thunderstorms are expected
with all severe threats possible -- large hail, damaging winds, as
well as some tornadoes possible. The temperature gradient will
continue through Wednesday with highs potentially ranging from mid
60s to mid 70s.
For Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF do indicate best potential for
thunderstorm activity to be in the afternoon into early evening.
However, the GFS does seem to be faster and progression is more
quickly to the North with a more negative tilt to the upper level
trough. This does create some uncertainty for how much and how long
the best conditions will exist for any severe threat over extreme
eastern KS. Any major activity looks to be East of Hwy 75 for the
most part as good moisture, shear and instability are better just
off to the East. During the mid to late afternoon time frame a jet
streak may also help to enhance storms along the cold front which
looks to be making its way through the very eastern portions of the
outlook area at this time. As a result, the focus for storms by early
evening does look to be more over western MO.
After the cold front makes its way through, more zonal flow sets up
with a quick transition into a more amplified ridge for Saturday
into Sunday morning in response to yet another potential trough
digging into the four corners region. This could bring some more
showers and potential thunderstorm activity later during the day
Sunday into evening to our area.
Temperatures for Thursday through the end of the period should be trending
on the pleasant side with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with
lows in the lower 40s initially but creeping up to the 50s by later
in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
Ceilings throughout the day should remain VFR. At 00Z, ceilings
will begin to drop to MVFR levels, eventually reaching IFR by 07Z.
Soundings are continuing to indicate light drizzle throughout the
entire morning accompanied by IFR ceilings. It is possible at some
point in the morning terminals will see LIFR conditions for a short
period, but cannot pinpoint timing this far out; therefore, have
left it out of the TAFs at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-96 BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW DAYS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF I-96 EARLY AS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS
ARE WARMING.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING BUT WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AT REED CITY AND BIG RAPIDS.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-96 AT 10 AM. WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AZO/BTL/JXN COULD REACH 65. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NORTH OF I-96 STUCK IN
THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST FROM WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN SO FAR IS GOING INTO MOISTENING THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF AND SO WE SCALED BACK ON ACCUMS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH CONFIDENCE SYSTEM DUE TO IT/S
DEPENDENCE ON MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHED A TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA A FEW
HOURS AGO AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS 30+ DBZ WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
SREF/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO
ALMA LINE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
60. BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR FROM ONTARIO. MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TUESDAY. LI/S NEAR -4C COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG POINT TOWARD SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-96. TSRA
WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER RISK
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A NEAR FREEZING
LOW LEVEL LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT UP AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNT
PLEASANT. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR MAINLY
NORTH OF A ALMA TO LUDINGTON LINE. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT LESS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WARM FRONT
SITUATED OVER LOWER MI WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDER RISK. HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAWING UP GULF MOISTURE THU INTO
THU NIGHT...SENDING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS.
INSTABILITY ARRIVES AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED AS WELL. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL LATER THU NIGHT OR FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
THUNDER RISK FOR FRI AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS VS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTS TO
25 KTS ARE ALREADY BEING REALIZED FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE IN THE AZO/BTL/JXN TAF SITES WHICH ARE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. GRR WILL BE
RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE FRONT IT APPEARS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO
LIGHT/VARIBLE WINDS ARE WARRANTED.
WINDS GO MAINLY E/SE OVERNIGHT THEN SE/S FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS (SCT) DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CIGS LIKELY ARRIVING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD IFR STARTING AT THAT POINT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON THE LAKE EXPECTED. 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A BAND OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. NOT MUCH HYDRO IMPACT
HERE...RIVERS REMAIN MOSTLY LEVEL OR RECEDING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THERE IS A
HIGHER RISK FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IN
GENERAL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING AT THIS
POINT...BUT RISES ON STREAMS AS WELL AS MAIN STEMS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
142 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GRT LKS BTWN CUTOFF H5 LO OVER NRN QUEBEC
AND POLAR/SUBTROPICAL BRANCH RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SPRAWLING SFC HI
PRES IS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA...WITH A RDG AXIS ORIENTED SE INTO LK
SUP. THE UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS HI. THE 00Z PWAT WAS 0.13 INCH AT INL /45 PCT OF NORMAL/ AND
ONLY 0.05 INCH AT YPL AND THE PAS MANITOBA. THERE ARE SOME CLDS OVER
THE FAR SCENTRAL CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT DRAPED W-E ACROSS THE UPR
MIDWEST. THERE ARE SOME SCT MID CLDS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHRTWV THAT IS SHEARING OUT IN THE NW UPPER
FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF. SOME LO CLDS AND EVEN A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE ALSO DVLPD OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE NE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF THE LO PRES TROF. TEMPS TO THE N ARE
QUITE CHILLY AS WELL...WITH 00Z H85 TEMP -20C AT YPL. LOOKING TO THE
S...THERE IS A BAND OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING FM SRN MN ACROSS
CENTRAL WI ASSOCIATED WITH APRCH OF ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV AND SOME
WAA/FGEN TO THE NE OF THE H85 WARM FNT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS
A SHRTWV IN THE POLAR BRANCH FLOW RIDING OVER THE ROCKIES RDG. HI
CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ARE MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. SOME
LIGHT RA IS FALLING ALONG THE NDAKOTA/SDAKOTA BORDER DESPITE VERY
DRY LLVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WL FOCUS ON CLDS TODAY AND THEN
POPS/SN AMOUNTS FOR TNGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW RIDING OVER THE
ROCKIES RDG AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
TDAY...AS WEAK SHRTWV CAUSING BAND OF PCPN IN CENTRAL WI SLIDES TO
THE ESE...THIS AREA OF PCPN WL REMAIN S OF UPR MI. OTHERWISE...MID
LVL SUBSIDENCE/HI PRES BLDG OVER LK SUP WL BRING MAINLY DRY WX.
SEVERAL OF THE HIER RES MODELS INDICATE SOME LO CLDS WL PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THIS MRNG OVER MAINLY THE NCNTRL CWA WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE ENE WIND THAT WL SLOW THE ADVECTION OF THE VERY DRY AIR
SHOWN IN ONTARIO. ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES THIS MRNG IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NCENTRAL. WITH AN ENE WIND...EXPECT BLO NORMAL
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CHILLY WATERS OF THE GREAT LKS. DEEPER
MIXING TO H8 AS OBSVD ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ALLOW TEMPS NEAR THE WI
BORDER TO REACH THE LO 40S AWAY FM ANY LK MODERATION AND DESPITE SOME
INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN.
TNGT...MODELS INDICATE UPR CONFLUENCE ZN WL RETREAT TO THE N...
ALLOWING SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TO APRCH. WITH THE
RETREAT OF THE CONFLUENCE ZN...UPR MI IS PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE
RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET MAX THAT IS FCST TO SHIFT AVER FAR SW QUEBEC/
ADJOINING ONTARIO OVERNGT. AS THE H85 WARM FNT/MID LVL FGEN BAND
SHIFT TO THE N UNDER THE DVLPG UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF THE JET
STREAK...A BAND OF WAA SN TO THE N OF THE WARM FNT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE WI BORDER IN THE EVNG AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N
THRU THE N...ENVELOPING ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z MON.
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW AS MUCH AS 0.25 TO 0.30 INCH QPF OVER THE
SCENTRAL...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE
2.5-3.0 G/KG RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WET SN ACCUMS WITH
NARROW/HIER DGZ MAY APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO THE WEATHER PATTERN AWAY FROM
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A WESTERLY FLOW BY MID WEEK. WHILE THAT
OCCURS...SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE AREA AND ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THAT FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME SHIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA. THAT WILL BE THE FIRST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIATIONS IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...THEY SEEM TO HAVE NARROWED IN ON THE
FOCUS OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEING OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. DURING THAT
TIME...THINK THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL
NORTHWARD PUSH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THAT BETTER PRECIPITATION...THE THERMAL PROFILE
LOOKS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING AND WOULD EXPECT THE P-TYPE TO REMAIN
AS SNOW. BUT AS THE FORCING WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...THERE ARE HINTS
THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION WILL CUT OUT AND THE SUB
800MB THERMAL PROFILE IS HOVERING AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THAT
WOULD LEAD TO RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POTENTIAL FOR FZRA WHERE TEMPS ARE
AROUND FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GET OVERLY
DETAILED AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL SHOW A MENTION OF RAIN WITH THE
SNOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYING ALOFT. FORCING DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEAKENS AND REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.P. BEFORE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL NEAR THE
WI BORDER AND THE SOUTHERN U.P. LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
DOES HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL REGION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA (MAINLY NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3RDS)...BUT THE
MAIN FORCING/MOISTURE IS BELOW THE FAVORED ICE CRYSTAL REGION.
THUS..WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SOME LIQUID IN IT OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS YOU HEAD NORTH ACROSS
THE U.P. THEREFORE...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DETERMINE
THE IMPACT FROM THIS PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST KEEPING COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARMING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL (EXCEPT ON EXISTING COLD SURFACES)...BUT COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO TUESDAY WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN WHERE
THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THE SNOW
WILL BE DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING...LIMITING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY WILL EXCEED 3 INCHES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1.5IN OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO NOSE BACK SOUTH AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THAT NEXT WAVE IS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THAT PERIOD. WON/T GET TOO SPECIFIC IN THE GRIDS DUE TO THE
EVOLVING IDEAS IN THE MODELS...BUT THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE WARMING BETWEEN 925-
700MB (PEAKING BETWEEN 1 AND 6C)...WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION FALL
AS A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING
AT OR AROUND FREEZING WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
FOR THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE
BEFORE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
PERIOD. DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACK...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIP TYPES. WOULD EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH
WARM AIR TO SUPPORT RAIN FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FZRA IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING) BEFORE POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MUCH FASTER WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH AND HAS SHIFTED IT
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW. LOOKING AT THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...THAT FASTER TREND SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL IN ALL...WITH
THIS PERIOD STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WON/T GET TOO DETAILED AND SHOW
THE GENERAL IDEA FOR POPS AND P-TYPE.
FINALLY...EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE COLD AIR RETREATS TO THE NORTH BUT STILL STAYING AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN CONTROL. A WARM FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS AND MS VLY REGION WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE DRY NE SFC WIND WILL
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW CONFINED CLOSER TO IRON MOUNTAIN AND
MENOMINEE. THEREFORE...WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO IWD AND SAW
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW END MVFR OR IFR CIGS. DUE TO CMX BEING
FARTHEST FROM THE MOISTURE AND WARM FRONT...EXPECT THAT SITE TO
REMAIN VFR OR HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN A HIGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
25KTS...BUT FUNNELING DOWN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR COULD LEAD TO GUSTS
UP TO 30KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-96 BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A FEW DAYS. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF I-96 EARLY AS
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS SFC TEMPS
ARE WARMING.
SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THIS MORNING BUT WE HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AT REED CITY AND BIG RAPIDS.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-96 AT 10 AM. WITH ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AZO/BTL/JXN COULD REACH 65. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NORTH OF I-96 STUCK IN
THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PCPN MOVING EAST FROM WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN SO FAR IS GOING INTO MOISTENING THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF AND SO WE SCALED BACK ON ACCUMS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NEVER BEEN A HIGH CONFIDENCE SYSTEM DUE TO IT/S
DEPENDENCE ON MOSTLY FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHED A TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CWA A FEW
HOURS AGO AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPSTREAM RADAR SHOWS 30+ DBZ WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI. THUS WE/LL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING.
SREF/HRRR INDICATE THAT THE PCPN SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF A PENTWATER TO
ALMA LINE.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CWA. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR
60. BUT THEN THE BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN PULLING IN COOLER AIR FROM ONTARIO. MODELS INDICATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TUESDAY. LI/S NEAR -4C COUPLED WITH MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG POINT TOWARD SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-96. TSRA
WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO THE HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER RISK
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER ABOVE A NEAR FREEZING
LOW LEVEL LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT UP AROUND HARRISON AND MOUNT
PLEASANT. BASED ON THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF ZR MAINLY
NORTH OF A ALMA TO LUDINGTON LINE. TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT LESS
SHALLOW COLD AIR. TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WARM FRONT
SITUATED OVER LOWER MI WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THUNDER RISK. HIGHEST POPS MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI...CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN DRAWING UP GULF MOISTURE THU INTO
THU NIGHT...SENDING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS.
INSTABILITY ARRIVES AS WELL. ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED AS WELL. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL LATER THU NIGHT OR FRI. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE
THUNDER RISK FOR FRI AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE BAND OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF KMKG...KGRR AND KLAN THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY VFR WEATHER IS FORECASTED TO PREVAIL AS
THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN. VALUES OVER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ON THE LAKE EXPECTED. 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
A BAND OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER BASIN. NOT MUCH HYDRO IMPACT
HERE...RIVERS REMAIN MOSTLY LEVEL OR RECEDING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THERE IS A
HIGHER RISK FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IN
GENERAL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING AT THIS
POINT...BUT RISES ON STREAMS AS WELL AS MAIN STEMS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
407 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
HIT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10
AM MONDAY. AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST INTO SRN MN. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS VERY STRONG WAA
IN THE MID LEVELS...ACROSS A DEEP LAYER...WHICH IS PRODUCING A
STRENGTHENING BAND OF F-GEN JUST SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES. AS
EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS. CLOUD COVER AND RADAR ECHOES
ARE STARTING TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS AREA OF ENHANCEMENT AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THOUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RELATIVELY STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THE STRONG LIFT AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL OCCUR
IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COOL THE COLUMN AND CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO
ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY. SO...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME...WITH A QUICK 2 TO
4 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN
COUNTIES AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN VERY DRY CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND A WARM FRONT WITH
INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER SRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A THERMAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
MINN AND NRN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
REGIONS OF NE MINN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.
AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE QPF/SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS MON/MON NIGHT LOOKS TO AFFECT AREAS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD/MILLE LACS AREA...EAST INTO
THE HAYWARD LAKES.
FOCUS TURNS TO LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. LATEST ECM/GFS/GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
BECOMES CUT OFF AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECM SOLUTION FOR POPS AND WINDS. ALTHOUGH VERY FAR OUT IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...IF THIS LOW CAN MATERIALIZE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED QPF/RAINFALL OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES UNTIL 00Z. AFTER THIS A
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL AFFECT
KBRD...KHYR AND KDLH WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
KHYR...BUT KEPT OUT OF THE TAF BECAUSE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
WINDS PICK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KDLH...KBRD
AND KHYR WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 37 26 35 / 30 30 40 40
INL 17 38 22 43 / 0 10 0 10
BRD 28 41 28 39 / 60 50 60 40
HYR 30 40 28 39 / 60 60 70 40
ASX 27 35 27 36 / 40 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR MNZ034-036-038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR WIZ006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT ALONG SE TX AND
S LA COAST. VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR BEING LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND MS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT NLDN HAS
SHOWN SOME OCNL STRIKES IN OUR EC LA AND SW MS AREAS. HRRR RUNS
AND GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HEAVIEST FOCUS ALONG/S OF
I20...AND WILL SHIFT ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NEW ACTIVITY WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER
NORTH INVOF 850 MB FRONT. HAVE ORIENTED WEATHER AND POP GRIDS
BASED ON THESE IDEAS. INCLUDED TSRA IN THE S THIS EVENING AND THEN
ALL AREAS TONIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH BEHIND 850
MB BOUNDARY.
MONDAY IS A SOMEHWAT INTERESTING DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SURGE NORTH...AND BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTED EAST
WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH 30-40 KT OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOWN BY 20-30M 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY...HAVE WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS IN HWO...BUT NOT HIT IT
HARD GIVEN OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING.
AFTER MONDAY EVENING...ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHIFT WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT PLAYER IN
WEATHER. EXPECT GENERALLY DRY...BUT WARM AND SEASONABLY
HUMID...CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MODEL
BLENDS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /AEG/
.LONG TERM...
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR LATER PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL
DIFFERENCES IN OP MODELS...BUT STRONG SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO
LIFT NW OF REGION AND PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION LATE THU INTO FRI. 12Z GFS TRENDED WITH A STRONGER PUSH
OF COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR WEEKEND BEFORE NEXT BIG
SYSTEM MON. OVERALL TREND OF LOTS OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY COMING
INTO SW CONUS MAKES US HESITANT TO BUY OFF ON THIS...AND WE USED
MODEL BLEND TO KEEP DECENT POPS INTO WEEKEND. PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /AEG/
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW AGREES THAT A LARGE DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO
THE PLAINS IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PUSH THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH ASCENT ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS PERIOD TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS
A GOOD DEAL FRIDAY ALTHOUGH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EBB.
CONSIDERING THE ABOVE WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION AN ELEVATED
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TORNADIC MODES IS NOT YET HIGH
ENOUGH TO FOCUS ON IN THE HWO.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A
SCENARIO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD BE THE
PROVERBIAL TIP OF THE ICEBERG OF ACTIVE WEATHER GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAID
OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY BY THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL STALL AND TRIGGER MORE STORMS SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET...THIS TIME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO YET...BUT AT THIS
JUNCTURE A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS QUITE
PLAUSIBLE. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITIES
COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR STATUS IF MODERATE RAIN IS OBSERVED
WITHIN A SITES RESPECTED AERODROME. AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CEILINGS WILL LOWER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TOWARD DAY BREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 79 65 83 / 69 52 15 14
MERIDIAN 61 78 63 83 / 52 66 32 13
VICKSBURG 57 81 65 83 / 72 43 12 17
HATTIESBURG 60 81 65 85 / 70 46 14 13
NATCHEZ 59 81 65 83 / 72 48 17 17
GREENVILLE 56 78 65 81 / 44 54 12 17
GREENWOOD 58 78 65 82 / 44 64 17 16
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/19/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1206 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATING TO SPEED UP RAIN TIMING AND LOWER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
IN SPITE OF VERY DRY AIR LOW LEVEL AIR SAMPLED BY MORNING RAOBS
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RAIN IS HAVING NO PROBLEM SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NE LA AND INTO FAR WESTERN MS AT MIDDAY. BLENDED PW
PRODUCT SHOWS SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PW INTO EASTERN TX WHICH IS
FEEDING ABOVE DOME OF COOLER AIR...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESRPEAD PRECIPITATION. STILL THINK BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL DATA THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO NE
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE WENT WITH LOWER POPS THERE.
OTHERWISE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR WHICH SEEMS TO BE
CATCHING UP WITH FASTER PRECIP EVOLUTION. ADDED MENTION OF TSRA IN
SW SECTIONS BASED ON PROXIMITY OF LIGHTNING IN LATEST NLDN
DATA...AND 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO SW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
USED HRRR TO POPULATE HOURLY TEMPS AS FASTER MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH EVAP COOLING MEANS TEMPS WILL NOT WARM
AS MUCH AS EARLIER FORECASTS IN WESTERN HALF OF AREA...AND WILL IN
FACT FALL SOME IN AREAS WEST OF I-55 AS PRECIP MOVES IN. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...DESPITE CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF IT. HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORIES AS
RAIN SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...BOUTS OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A RESULT OF MODERATE RAINFALL BEING OBSERVED ON STATION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS...WHILE A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 77 59 79 65 / 73 70 64 19
MERIDIAN 78 58 78 63 / 36 63 67 27
VICKSBURG 73 60 81 65 / 81 71 48 14
HATTIESBURG 81 62 81 65 / 56 46 54 12
NATCHEZ 73 62 81 65 / 90 67 33 10
GREENVILLE 72 58 78 65 / 76 77 62 29
GREENWOOD 76 59 78 65 / 71 77 67 30
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
08/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
418 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
Southerly flow on the western side of the high pressure system over
the eastern seaboard is bringing warmer temperatures and increasing
low level moisture to the area. Even with deep mixing over the area
today, surface dewpoint temperatures are around 5 to 10 degrees
higher than they were yesterday. This moistening trend will
continue tonight and ceilings are expected to lower and thicken.
Warm south flow and abundant cloud cover should make for a warmer
night tonight with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 40s; and
the more urbanized areas of St. Louis may not drop out of the lower
50s. All of this moisture advection is producing light QPF in the
models. However, it is fairly typical for this QPF to be overdone,
and the high resolution WRF models as well as the HRRR are showing
only very light/low probability precipitation. Have therefore
reduced PoPs to sight chance for most of the night...increasing to
low chance by 12Z over the eastern Ozarks.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 414 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
NWP output is maintaining fairly good run to run and model to model
consistency as we head into the new work week. Primary forecast
concern continues to be precipitation chances, with all solutions
maintaining the idea of a strong mid level cap dominating much of
the forecast area into Wednesday.
For Monday the odds of measurable rain still appear to be quite
small, with the rain chances (such as they are) tied to stratified
low level moisture trapped beneath the mid level inversion...which
also makes the odds of any convection quite small over most of the
CWA. In general have kept PoPs in the 15-30% range, and have
There are still indications that the increasing low level jet will
lead to the development of elevated convection on the eastern
fringes of the warmer mid level temps late Monday night and into
Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS indicate
that genesis region for this development may be over
northern/central IL with the activity just clipping our CWA, but QPF
output from the ECMWF certainly suggests development much further to
the southwest...generally along the Mississippi River. For now I`ve
continued with high end chance/low likely PoPs for
northeast/easterns sections of our CWA. Elsewhere during this time
frame time PoPs should remain quite low as strong mid level cap
remains in place, although models do suggest some very weak
shortwaves and mid level moisture working across the area that could
lead to some elevated precip.
Frontal boundary drops south late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night before stalling out from the northern Ozarks into southern IL
on Wednesday morning. Have continued chance PoPs in most areas
during this time, but once again these may be too high if the very
warm mid level temps forecast by the NAM/GFS verify.
Threat of storms should begin to ramp over parts of the CWA on Wednesday.
Not certain how much activity (if any) there will be Wednesday
morning, but all guidance indicates WAA ramping up during the
afternoon as upper level trofs begins to push into the western
Plains. This should set the stage for overrunning convection to
develop over northwest MO during the afternoon as low level ascent
is finally able to overcome the mid level cap. Elsewhere the cap
may still be tough to overcome, but with the boundary in the area
I have continued chance PoPs.
Several rounds of storms are expected from Wednesday night...Thursday...and
into Thursday night...as shortwave energy is ejected into the mid
Mississippi Valley from strong upper level trof pushing into the
Plains. These disturbances will finally erode the mid level
capping, and allow the energy from the increasingly unstable low
level AMS to be released, and have carried likely and higher PoPs
for most of the CWA during this period. Obviously, severe weather
remains a very real concern...especially on Thursday and Thursday
night...due to strength of upper level system, large scale shear,
and expected instability of the early summer airmass.
Passage of the cold front should end the thunderstorm threat over
eastern sections of the CWA on Friday morning, followed by drier and
cooler weather on Saturday. However, medium range models are
suggesting the development of return flow will mean another threat
of showers and storms by Sunday.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
VFR flight conditions will prevail for the rest of the afternoon
and into the evening across the forecast area. Expect the
southerly flow to continue to bring greater amounts of low level
moisture into the region, and VFR ceilings around 5,000 FT will
develop this evening. Ceilings will eventually lower through the
night into MVFR range, and probably IFR over the eastern Ozarks.
Low ceilings will persist at least through mid to late
morning, but should begin rising during the afternoon. There is
also a chance of some isolated showers or sprinkles
tonight...primarily over the eastern Ozarks.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR flight conditions will continue at least through the evening,
and probably through most of the night. Expect ceilings around
5,000 FT to overspread the terminal this evening, and ceilings
should lower to MVFR before 12Z. Timing of the lower ceilings is
uncertain, and it is also possible that ceilings could drop below
1,000 FT. IFR seems unlikely at this time though so have kept
ceilings between 1,000-1,900 FT in the TAF. Expect a gradual rise
in ceiling heights through the morning into the afternoon. There
may be an isolated shower or sprinkle overnight into Monday
morning, though probability is too low to mention in the TAF at
this time.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH GUSTY/PULSY WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDOWN. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING WIND
EXPECTED MID/LATE MORNING MONDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KT CANT BE RULED OUT
FOR A PERIOD AT LVS/TCC AND GUP. CANT RULE OUT GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD AT AEG/ABQ/SAF/ROW. STRONGER WIND EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY. TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE HIGH MIXING DAYS THUS LARGER GUST
SPREADS.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AND RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA THIS EASTER MORNING...WITH THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES WITH MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BY SEVERAL DEGREES...INCLUDING MORNING
READINGS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. A DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WINDY PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...WITH AN ESPECIALLY WINDY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING COOLER
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE NM/AZ LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING A FEW WEAK 20 DBZ OR LESS RETURNS VICINITY OF GALLUP
AND THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND SERN-MOST ZONES.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS QUITE DRY NEAR/WEST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT
SOME MOISTENING PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY CORRIDOR
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS UP 10 DEGREES OR SO FROM SOCORRO TO
ABQ TO TAOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING NOT AS PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
EAST OWING TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW BUT HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MAY
BRIEFLY ADVECT INTO THE SE ZONES IF SURFACE WINDS CAN STAY A BIT
MORE BACKED AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE.
THE LATEST HRRR AND 03Z SREF NOT AS BULLISH ON QPF THIS EASTER
MORNING AS WAS 00Z MODEL SUITE BUT INTERESTINGLY ALL THE MODELS
TO VARYING DEGREES SUPPORT A LINEAR-FORCED QPF BAND FROM THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ABQ AREA EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE
I-40 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER FAVORED REGION FROM THE SC MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
NEWD. DID EXPAND MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN
AREAS BUT DECIDED TO AGAINST WIDESPREAD SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN
THAT THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CLOSE AFTER 15Z.
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AND IT/S APRIL...SO COINCIDENT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL COME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AS MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW STEADILY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WARM...DRY AND WINDY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO COOLER POST-
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WINDIEST DAY
FOR MOST AREAS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE
EQUALLY AS WINDY ACROSS THE NE QUARTER AS 994MB SURFACE LOW WRAPS
UP AND TRANSLATES NEWD. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
DURING THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD. NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INDICATED
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS/RH
RECOVERY FOR THE EAST. THEN WATCHING ANOTHER LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT LATEST GFS MUCH DRIER FOR OUR AREA TRACKING LOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...PATTERN CERTAINLY TRENDING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SCENARIO ACROSS THE EAST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...A TRANSITION TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
TODAY...WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK...
AS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT APPROACHES NEW MEXICO IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WINDY...DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL STEADILY DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST AS WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. A DRY SLOT IS MOVING OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE DRY
SLOT CROSSES NEW MEXICO TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. LITTLE WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACT TO STEADILY SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LAYER DRY SLOT REACHES NEW MEXICO.
MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AND INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE EAST THUS AIDING THE QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL DOMINATE WESTERN ZONES. AS
RH FALLS BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL AREAS...REACHING SINGLE DIGIT VALUES
MOST AREAS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME SPOTTY COVERAGE IN THE
WEST WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
POOR.
BY MONDAY...INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BETTER ALIGN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DRYING CONTINUES AT THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVELS AND WHILE MIXING IS NOT QUITE AS DEEP
STRONGER GRADIENTS ALOFT AND LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT STRONGER
WINDS. HAINES VALUES WILL EXCEED 5 ALL LOCATIONS AND SINGLE DIGIT RH
VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. RH RECOVERIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POOR.
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND CROSSES THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SOME COOLING AND STABILIZATION IN THE
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY...UNSTABLE AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
AS DOES THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
AS THE BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...SURFACE WINDS RELAX THOUGH STAY STRONG ENOUGH IN THE EAST
TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A WIND SHIFT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN MODEST RH INCREASES MAINLY EAST
AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK TO BE FREE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE
WEST. 05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. SNOW IS HERE AND ACCUMULATING NICELY. A PUSH NOW
INTO NE PA SO UPPED POPS THERE. WITH THE SNOW BECOME STEADY
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS.
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN,
40S SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS
POINT TO A NARROW BUT INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST, OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY?
IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER, COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT
INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL
NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE
DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT.
I WENT WITH MOSTLY ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA
LINE NORTH, WITH 850S BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE
COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER
THE HILLS. STILL CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE
COLUMN. ITS VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND
EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL TAKE LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO
GRASSY SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST
LIKELY HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC.
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...
A WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN ALOFT ALLOWS FOR MULTP
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPR LVL FLOW TO PASS OVER THE REGION BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY. ATTM... THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL BE THURS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE
ARE AT THE TAIL END OF WINTER... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE AT NIGHT
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. NO MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ALONG AND BEHIND IT. IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... AND VFR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS CLOUD COVERAGE IS PREVENTING MIXING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSISTING WELL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWER SHOULD IMPACT KSYR AND KRME. A LOW STRATUS DECK
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER KELM... KBGM AND KITH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THESE SITES. KAVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS THE BOUNDARY IS
WELL TO ITS NORTH.
.OUTLOOK...
MON AFTERNOON-FRI...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA
AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COULD BE MIXED WITH
-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON SUNDAY UPDATE...
VESTAL AND CONKLIN ON THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER HAVE FALLEN NICELY AND
ARE NOW WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RIVER WARNINGS CANCELLED THERE AT
6 AM. CORTLAND WAS HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LAST NIGHT AND IS
FALLING SLOWER. IT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM.
REST OF RIVER POINTS STAYED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND ARE ALSO FALLING
NOW.
MOSTLY SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE RUNOFF. BIGGER
PROBLEM IS THE RAIN ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MORE SNOWMELT RUNOFF. RIVER FORECASTS BACK
TO MINOR FLOOD FOR CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE...AND PROBABLY VESTAL
AND CONKLIN AGAIN. FLOOD STAGE REACHED LATE TUE NGT AND WED.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AND MAGNITUDE OF FLOOD WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RUNOFF IS GENERATED. SNOWMELT IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND AMOUNT THAT WAS MELTED OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. SNOW IS HERE AND ACCUMULATING NICELY. A PUSH NOW
INTO NE PA SO UPPED POPS THERE. WITH THE SNOW BECOME STEADY
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS.
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN,
40S SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS
POINT TO A NARROW BUT INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST, OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY?
IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER, COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT
INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL
NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE
DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT.
I WENT WITH MOSTLY ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA
LINE NORTH, WITH 850S BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE
COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER
THE HILLS. STILL CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE
COLUMN. ITS VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND
EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL TAKE LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO
GRASSY SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST
LIKELY HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC.
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WET PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING WAVES ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY-FRIDAY COURTESY OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN FOR PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF MIXED SNOW CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. GRIDS
ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND/OR MODEL TRENDS. WETTEST
DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH AREAL AVERAGE OF ROUGHLY ONE
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...AND FRI-FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES
THROUGH WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN GFS/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. EXTENDED BRINGS TRUTH TO THE
MEANING... APRIL SHOWERS... BRING MAY FLOWERS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE AND WET. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL... TRENDS APPEAR TO BE RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AT LEAST ON THE UPSIDE... TEMPS
DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE SEASONAL NORM...
AND A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ALONG AND BEHIND IT. IFR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... AND VFR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS CLOUD COVERAGE IS PREVENTING MIXING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSISTING WELL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWER SHOULD IMPACT KSYR AND KRME. A LOW STRATUS DECK
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER KELM... KBGM AND KITH. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS THE FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THESE SITES. KAVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS THE BOUNDARY IS
WELL TO ITS NORTH.
.OUTLOOK...
MON AFTERNOON-FRI...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA
AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. COULD BE MIXED WITH
-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON SUNDAY UPDATE...
VESTAL AND CONKLIN ON THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER HAVE FALLEN NICELY AND
ARE NOW WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RIVER WARNINGS CANCELLED THERE AT
6 AM. CORTLAND WAS HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LAST NIGHT AND IS
FALLING SLOWER. IT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM.
REST OF RIVER POINTS STAYED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND ARE ALSO FALLING
NOW.
MOSTLY SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE RUNOFF. BIGGER
PROBLEM IS THE RAIN ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MORE SNOWMELT RUNOFF. RIVER FORECASTS BACK
TO MINOR FLOOD FOR CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE...AND PROBABLY VESTAL
AND CONKLIN AGAIN. FLOOD STAGE REACHED LATE TUE NGT AND WED.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AND MAGNITUDE OF FLOOD WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RUNOFF IS GENERATED. SNOWMELT IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND AMOUNT THAT WAS MELTED OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1231 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. SNOW IS HERE AND ACCUMULATING NICELY. A PUSH NOW
INTO NE PA SO UPPED POPS THERE. WITH THE SNOW BECOME STEADY
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS.
400 AM UPDATE...
AN INTERESTING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH BOTH WIND AND
SNOW CONCERNS.
AN AREA OF MOISTURE NOW ALONG AN EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. WITH AN
INTENSE TEMPERATURE ALREADY PRESENT (20S NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN,
40S SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN) AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS, ALL SIGNS
POINT TO A NARROW BUT INTENSE AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT BEING WEST TO EAST, OUR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FOLKS REMOVED FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH MAY SAY WHATS THE WORRY?
IN THE MIDDLE HOWEVER, COOL TEMPS ALOFT WITH STRONG LIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES EARLY TODAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW GOOD RH AND LIFT
INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER, SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER
BURST OF SNOW. FURTHER SUPPORTING THE NOTION THAT THIS BAND WILL
NOT BE VERY WIDE NORTH SOUTH, BUT INSTEAD VERY ELONGATED, IS THE
DIFFERENCES IN OMEGA VALUES FROM FORECAST POINT TO FORECAST POINT.
I WENT WITH MOSTLY ALL SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NEAR THE NY/PA
LINE NORTH, WITH 850S BELOW 0C AND STRONG LIFT HELPING TO COOL THE
COLUMN. BY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO RAIN FIRST IN THE VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY LATER OVER
THE HILLS. STILL CONCERNED A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN, GIVEN SUCH STRONG LIFT IN THE
COLUMN. ITS VERY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 34-36 RANGE. I WENT A COATING TO 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, AND
EXTREME NORTHERN TIER OF PA. A FEW 3 INCH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
WILL TAKE LONGER. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR TO
GRASSY SURFACES WITH MAINLY JUST WET ROADS, SOME SLUSHY SPOTS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. AGAIN MOST
LIKELY HIGHER TERRAIN/SHADY SPOTS, ELEVATED BRIDGES, ETC.
HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN OUR HWO.
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS MOST OF
THE DAY MAY REMAIN DRY BUT VERY WINDY. HRRR WIND GUSTS, WHICH DID
VERY WELL YESTERDAY, SHOW GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THROUGH AFTERNOON. RAP
VALUES ARE ALSO SIMILAR. I INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AND
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW POWER OUTAGES
IN THIS AREA WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
600 MB SCREAMING WIND POTENTIAL. WILL PASS ONTO THE DAY SHIFT THIS
POTENTIAL IN CASE A SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED. FOR NOW
HELD OFF ON ANYTHING WITH COLLABORATION FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES
AND NAM/GFS MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES NOT BEING QUITE AS HIGH AS HI
RES GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT. THE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST EARLY IN THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY FADE AS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS NORTH LATE. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT THE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTED A FEW COUNTIES NORTH. WHILE SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MOST OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE MANY STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER. AT THE SAME
TIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP SO ASIDE FROM SOME WET SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, P-TYPE CONCERNS ARE MUCH
LESS. TEMPS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER OUR AREA WITH 60S IN NEPA, BUT
ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 AM UPDATE...
BUSY WET PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING WAVES ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY-FRIDAY COURTESY OF MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY RAIN FOR PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE LITTLE BIT OF MIXED SNOW CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. GRIDS
ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND/OR MODEL TRENDS. WETTEST
DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUE-TUE NIGHT WITH AREAL AVERAGE OF ROUGHLY ONE
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH...AND FRI-FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES
THROUGH WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN GFS/.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. EXTENDED BRINGS TRUTH TO THE
MEANING... APRIL SHOWERS... BRING MAY FLOWERS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE AND WET. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. OVERALL... TRENDS APPEAR TO BE RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST EACH DAY. AT LEAST ON THE UPSIDE... TEMPS
DURING THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE SEASONAL NORM...
AND A POSSIBLE WARMING TREND MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BROUGHT A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW FOR KITH-KBGM-KELM...BUT IS NOW GONE. HOWEVER...ATTENTION
ALREADY TURNS TO NEXT INBOUND WAVE WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER IMPACT SNOW MOST PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KELM-KBGM...THOUGH IN TIME MIXING WITH RAIN ESPECIALLY KELM.
KSYR-KRME ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP...ONLY HIGHER END MVFR CIG
AND VIS FIGURED FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...IF PRECIP BAND SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE NORTHWARD THEN IFR
RESTRICTIONS COULD RESULT. MEANWHILE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS FOR KAVP...THOUGH SCT -SHRA WILL PROBABLY SKIM
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY WESTERLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...BECOMING VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...EXCEPT SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY KAVP WILL HAVE WSW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NIGHT-THURS...BUSY PATTERN WITH INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS FROM -SHRA AS MULTIPLE WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
COULD BE MIXED WITH -SHSN AT TIMES MAINLY KSYR-KRME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NOON SUNDAY UPDATE...
VESTAL AND CONKLIN ON THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER HAVE FALLEN NICELY AND
ARE NOW WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. RIVER WARNINGS CANCELLED THERE AT
6 AM. CORTLAND WAS HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LAST NIGHT AND IS
FALLING SLOWER. IT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
PM.
REST OF RIVER POINTS STAYED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND ARE ALSO FALLING
NOW.
MOSTLY SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE RUNOFF. BIGGER
PROBLEM IS THE RAIN ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MORE SNOWMELT RUNOFF. RIVER FORECASTS BACK
TO MINOR FLOOD FOR CORTLAND AND SHERBURNE...AND PROBABLY VESTAL
AND CONKLIN AGAIN. FLOOD STAGE REACHED LATE TUE NGT AND WED.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AND MAGNITUDE OF FLOOD WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RUNOFF IS GENERATED. SNOWMELT IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND AMOUNT THAT WAS MELTED OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
THE PREVIOUS 00Z HIGH RES MODELS OUTPERFORMED THE LATEST 12Z
MODELS AS FAR AS THE NOW PERIOD GOES...SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH WHAT
WAS DONE WITH THE LAST FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SAME THINKING AS BEFORE...LARGE AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS FORCING ALOFT
DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS OVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
HIGH RES 00Z ARW/NMM ARE LEADING THE PACK AS FAR AS VERIFICATION
WITH RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A TAD FAST (AROUND 3
HOURS) WITH THEIR PROJECTIONS OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY. WILL ADJUST
THIS TIMING ERROR AND FOLLOW THEIR LEAD...EACH OF WHICH SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF MY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NOW THROUGH EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I94. THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED S/WV APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW AS
THE TAIL END OF A JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FORCING WANES.
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE POPS
THIS MORNING THROUGH 21Z...ALSO NUDGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS I DON`T SEE HOW THEY WILL WARM MUCH GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER...FALLING SNOW...AND A COLD EASTERLY FLOW.
THE WEST WILL THEN BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SNOW TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC AS THE ONGOING FORECAST
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN SUNDAY WILL BE SNOW NORTH...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DWINDLE FARTHER SOUTH
TODAY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD/MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...ALL BEING
EJECTED FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS CONTINUES TO INDUCE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES AND JET STREAKS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE AREA OF STRATUS
STRETCHES FROM CROSBY TO MINOT AND EAST INTO RUGBY. MINOT DOPPLER
RADAR CONTINUES WITH EARLIER TRENDS WITH INCREASING REFLECTIVITY`S
AS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PROPAGATE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON PAST RADAR TRENDS
AND HAVE UTILIZED IT ALONG WITH THE NAM/GFS FOR POPS IN THE NORTH
TODAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A 110KT JET
STREAK WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT BISMARCK RADAR SHOWS MUCH WEAKER RETURNS
AND EXPECT POPS TO REMAIN MUCH LOWER AS COMPARED TO THE NORTH.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SLUG OF HIGHER POPS TO IMPINGE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM EASTERN MONTANA AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO SHIFT THROUGH.
OVERALL...SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 2 AND INTERSTATE 94. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94...NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORECAST TO POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS
ACTIVE...WET WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT NEARLY ALL OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DAILY PATTERN OF SNOW
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHTS...CHANGING OVER TO EITHER A
RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OR ALL RAIN SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER...WARM GROUND AND RAIN
MIXING IN WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. GIVEN THE ACCUMULATIONS BEING
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS...AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REGARDING THE
PROPAGATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS LOW INTO THE REGION.
OVERALL...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN-KMOT THIS
AFTERNOON IN LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING VFR CIGS
AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 04Z MONDAY. AFTER 04Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT KBIS/KJMS WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KDIK. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
701 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE
INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AND
OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE FRONT FORCING IT SOUTH TO
CENTRAL OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT SHOULD
CAUSE LITTLE IMPACT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT FASTER
THIS EVENING. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A QUICK 10 DEGREE
DROP IN TEMPERATURE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
OTHER THAN THIS SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
GOING ON THAT WILL IMPACT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE EVENING ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF
NWRN PA AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT SHIFT NORTH. AT THE SURFACE THE
HRRR AND RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPS DROPPING OFF AFTER ABOUT 21-22Z IN WHAT MAY BE MORE A FACTOR
OF THE GRADIENT WIND DECOUPLING AND LAKE INFLUENCES TAKE OVER FOR
A FEW HOURS. FOR MOST THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA IN DEEP S-SWLY FLOW
OFF THE GLFMX ALTHOUGH EXPECTING NO PRECIP OVERNIGHT. LOWS UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE STATIONARY FRONT WAFFLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTH BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MONDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
OVERRUNS THE AREA. CORE OF THE HIGHER RH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND MODELS DEVELOP LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID DAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SINCE FORCING IS NOT
STRONG WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE NAM
AND SREF IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE MAV SHOWING SWLY FLOW AT KERI ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS OF UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S LOOK FINE. MONDAY NIGHT THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE MONDAY WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING EAST WHILE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS PRINT OUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MOST WEST. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS WEST AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH CAP POPS DROPPING TO LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO MENTION
THUNDER AS CAPES GO OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE MILD IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH MID AND UPPER 60S BUT 10 DEGREES LOWER NORTH.
WEDNESDAY 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
ITS PROGRESS. WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT EAST
LATE IN THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE WITH A CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD SLOW DOWN. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF AND GEM WITH THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND IS EVEN ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION ON
FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE 60S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
COOLER AIR WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES BUT ERI. ERI IS CLOSE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LAKE AND COULD SEE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NE OR GO VARIABLE AFTER 22Z AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5K FEET EARLY MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...FREQUENT PERIODS OF NON VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE
INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL DRIFT NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AND
OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE FRONT FORCING IT SOUTH TO
CENTRAL OHIO BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE EVENING ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF NWRN
PA AS THE FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT SHIFT NORTH. AT THE SURFACE THE HRRR
AND RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPS DROPPING OFF AFTER ABOUT 21-22Z IN WHAT MAY BE MORE A FACTOR
OF THE GRADIENT WIND DECOUPLING AND LAKE INFLUENCES TAKE OVER FOR
A FEW HOURS. FOR MOST THE EVENING SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM BOTH AGREE ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA IN DEEP S-SWLY FLOW
OFF THE GLFMX ALTHOUGH EXPECTING NO PRECIP OVERNIGHT. LOWS UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE STATIONARY FRONT WAFFLING NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING
SOUTH BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR MONDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
OVERRUNS THE AREA. CORE OF THE HIGHER RH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND MODELS DEVELOP LIFT ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID DAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. SINCE FORCING IS NOT
STRONG WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE NAM
AND SREF IT APPEARS THAT MONDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH THE MAV SHOWING SWLY FLOW AT KERI ALL DAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS OF UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S LOOK FINE. MONDAY NIGHT THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE MONDAY WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING EAST WHILE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS PRINT OUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA MOST WEST. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS WEST AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH CAP POPS DROPPING TO LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO MENTION
THUNDER AS CAPES GO OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WET
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE MILD IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH MID AND UPPER 60S BUT 10 DEGREES LOWER NORTH.
WEDNESDAY 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON
ITS PROGRESS. WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT EAST
LATE IN THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES BUT TIMING WILL LIKELY
CHANGE WITH A CHANCE THAT THE UPPER LOW COULD SLOW DOWN. AT THIS
TIME...THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF AND GEM WITH THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND IS EVEN ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION ON
FRIDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE 60S.
A WEAK FRONT WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
COOLER AIR WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES BUT ERI. ERI IS CLOSE TO A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LAKE AND COULD SEE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NE OR GO VARIABLE AFTER 22Z AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER TO NEAR 5K FEET EARLY MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...FREQUENT PERIODS OF NON VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT AND THEN PUSH BACK NORTH ON MONDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
326 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)
Main concern with this package is with the threat for a few
thunderstorms across Crockett County tonight and areas to the
east.
A couple of storms have formed in the Davis Mountains and they are
moving east. The models did show a jet max moving across West Texas
tonight, placing WC TX in the favored right rear entrance region.
This upper level jet max combined with the increasing low level jet
could sustain convection tonight. Although the latest HRRR run
progged a large area of convection moving into the southern half of
WC TX overnight, still have low confidence since all of the other
models showed nothing. Will continue slight chance Pops for
thunderstorms mainly across Crockett County tonight. If this
convection persists, the Pops may have to be adjusted east and
northeast.
Expect the low clouds across the east to slowly erode through the
early evening. With plenty of low level gulf moisture across the
region, expect low clouds to develop overnight.
As the low clouds burn off tomorrow afternoon, temperatures will
quickly warm mostly into the mid and upper 80s. The models show the
dryline setting up west of Crockett County across the Trans Pecos
region. Model soundings show a strong cap through 6 PM tomorrow and
this should keep any convection from forming.
26
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow night through Sunday)
The main concern through the extended forecast is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, and toward the latter part of
the week for much of West Central Texas. Monday afternoon/evening
the dryline will set up across our western border. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the evening hours, mainly across
the Trans Pecos region of West Texas. A few of these storms may
drift into mainly Crockett County during the evening hours, where
slight chance PoPs are included. On Tuesday, the dryline will once
again move east to about our western boundary, during the late
afternoon/early evening. At this time, the cap looks to dominate,
with little to no convection developing. An isolated thunderstorms
will be possible if we are able to break the cap, but the forecast
was kept dry for now.
Models are in fairly good agreement showing the next upper level
low/trough centered across Utah/Colorado on Wednesday, then tracking
across the Central Plains Thursday. Ahead of this feature, a dryline
is forecast to move east to near our western border late Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Enough afternoon heating (highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s) and lift from the upper level trough should allow for the
development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the late afternoon/evening, then moving across the
area overnight. The ECMWF continues to be much drier than both the
GFS/Canadian, but geared the forecast closer to the wetter GFS. A
fairly unstable atmosphere will lie along and ahead of the dryline,
with SBCAPE values generally in the 1500-2500 J/KG range and 0-6 KM
shear values in the 35 to 50 knot range. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards at this time.
With the passage of the upper level trough, a cold front will move
through West Central Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures
are forecast Thursday into the weekend, with highs generally in the
mid 70s to low 80s. The next upper level low across the Pacific
Ocean will then begin to approach California, with West Central
Texas in southwest flow aloft. Intermittent disturbances may result
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, Friday into next
weekend, and this is reflected in the grids. The aforementioned
upper level low will eventually tack across West Texas or New
Mexico, which may bring an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms for late in the weekend or early next week.
Daniels
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 65 88 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 64 87 66 89 66 / 10 5 10 10 10
Junction 66 83 68 84 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
109 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AS A POORLY DEFINED WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EAST. DRT IS ALREADY AT MVFR AND HAVE
DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT SAT/SSF WILL LIFT TO MVFR BTWN 19-20Z...WITH
ALL THREE SITES LIFTING TO VFR BY 21Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT AUS
WHERE LIGHT LIFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING FURTHER NORTH...SO
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z AND MVFR AFTERWARDS.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER A WEAK MCS WILL MOVE IN
FROM BIG BEND AND AFFECT DRT BETWEEN 03-06Z AS HRRR AND NAM BOTH
SUGGEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
BTWN 03-06Z TONIGHT...LEADING TO IFR CIGS AT SAT/SSF/AUS BY 06Z.
DRT CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MCS BEFORE FALLING TO MVFR TONIGHT.
LH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
UPDATE...UPDATES THIS MORNING TO ADD AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS
WELL AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
EASTWARD. OVERALL RADAR TRENDS AND RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER TODAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS FOR TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK INCREASINGLY STABLE ON BOTH RADAR AND RADAR DERIVED WIND
PATTERNS. HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT RAINS
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES...BUT UNIFORM
WINDS AND A PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION WOULD SUGGEST JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE ABSENCE OF A FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ADDED
SUNSHINE AND ENHANCE AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
AVIATION...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISBYS ALONG THE
SAT/SSF/AUS SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN
GOING DOWN THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE SAT IS NOW REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. AUS SHOULD GO IFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WHILE DRT HAS BEEN HANGING NEAR 3000FT. AM BRINGING DRT
DOWN TO MVFR BUT BY AFTERNOON THE HRRR IS SHOWING WESTERN AREAS TO
GET TO VFR. BECAUSE THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN WAY OVERDOING THE RAIN
THIS MORNING...FEEL THAT THE HRRR HAS A BETTER FEEL. I ALSO BRING
SAT/SSF INTO VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS BATCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
MOVE NE OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HAVE REMOVED MOST
OF THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEAK FRONTAL INVERSION IS MOSTLY WASHED AWAY...LEAVING A REDUCED
POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW NEW
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT MOST
OF THE RAINS ARE LIGHT SPRINKLES OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE VAD WINDS SHOW THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE TURNING S TO SW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
TX...SO THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NORMALS.
OVER W TX...SPC HAS INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TRIGGERED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND A DRY-LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD
MOVE INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN MOVING INTO AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO
MONDAY COULD FURTHER INCREASE DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER W TX LATE
MONDAY AS THE WIND FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ALOFT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MAINTAINS A ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY SWLY
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A BREEZY AND STABLE PATTERN FOR
THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS POPULATION OF POPS SUGGESTS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THIS
STABLE PATTERN FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF DRY-LINE ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND A NEWD EJECTION OF AN UPPER LOW
PASSING TO THE NW HELPING TO DRIVE THE SHORTWAVE EAST INTO CENTRAL
TX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS PATTERN
IS A BIT BULLISH...AND A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE DRIER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS IS FAVORED OVER A MUCH STORMIER GFS. IF THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS WIN OUT...MUCH OF THE AREA COULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN EXTENDED PERIOD TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 65 82 66 84 / 20 10 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 64 80 66 83 / 20 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 66 83 66 84 / 20 10 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 64 81 65 83 / 20 10 - 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 65 87 68 87 / 20 20 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 65 81 67 83 / 20 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 65 81 66 84 / 20 10 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 65 82 66 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 68 81 68 82 / 20 10 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 66 81 67 83 / 20 10 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 66 81 67 85 / 20 10 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12