Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
945 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM HWY 50
NORTH TO NEAR SUSANVILLE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND WAS NOTED WELL BY EARLIER HRRR AND NAM RUNS. FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE LIMITED PRECIP AMOUNTS THUS FAR THOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO ~5000 FT. GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WANE OF THE SHOWER
COVERAGE PAST MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE CONTINUED SCATTERED-ISOLATED
COVERAGE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS TEMPS COOL, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT ON BRIDGES AND NON-PAVED
SURFACES. SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. CS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WARMER DAYS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE INITIAL FEATURE
OF INTEREST A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG A PORTOLA TO LOVELOCK LINE FROM
8-MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. IT IS HERE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TONIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH AND A BIT BREEZY WITH SOME
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE OFF THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIDESPREAD 20S ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN
PARTS OF PERSHING COUNTY. THESE WILL BE THE COLDEST LOWS WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE EARLY MARCH.
SOME RIDGING FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. AT THIS
POINT, WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND A MODERATE SURFACE
GRADIENT, PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO BE 35-45 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND
WESTERN NV. ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND ITS EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A COLDER PATTERN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT
THE REGION, THE FIRST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE ARE LOOKING TO BE TYPICAL
SPRING SEASON CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS THAT WILL PROVIDE A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WHICH COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4,000-5,000 FEET.
AS SUCH, THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.
MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WERE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC ARE NOW
SHOWING SOLID AGREEMENT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO BIG MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT SOME
PRELIMINARY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER
BELOW 5,000 FEET WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY WHERE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED
SUNDAY AS ROAD TEMPERATURES AND APRIL SUN ANGLE MAY LIMIT ROADWAY
ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS WET AND SLICK ROADWAYS SEEM LIKELY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK BETWEEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BUT AGAIN NO BIG MOISTURE TAP IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS LOW. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RUN CONSISTENCY,
ENSEMBLE SPREADS, AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS ONLY NOW
SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT. AT THIS POINT THE TAKE AWAY WOULD BE THAT
THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER COLDER SYSTEM WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. 700 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE -7C TO -9C RANGE WHICH CLOUD KEEP SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET.
INCREASED WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER PERIODS OF WIND LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS EACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER ACROSS KRNO AND KCXP. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY ACT
TO REINFORCE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED. FUENTES
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
118 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES COOLING. AS THE JET IS OVERHEAD
AND UPLIFT FROM THE FRONT OCCURS....SOME SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN
INTENSITY. A CELL JUST EAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
SEVERAL IN CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FLASHES CURRENTLY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CELL PUSHING EAST INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
ACROSS THE CORRIDOR AND PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SURFACE LOW IS WRAPPING UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF KDEN WITH INCREASING
WINDSPEEDS INTO IT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TURNING ALL AIRPORTS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDEN AND KAPA WITH SNOW ALREADY FOR KBJC. COLD
AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE
AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO
SNOW NEAR KAPA AND KDEN BY 21Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE
DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN
THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1222 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SURFACE LOW IS WRAPPING UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF KDEN WITH INCREASING
WINDSPEEDS INTO IT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TURNING ALL AIRPORTS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDEN AND KAPA WITH SNOW ALREADY FOR KBJC. COLD
AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE
AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO
SNOW NEAR KAPA AND KDEN BY 21Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE
DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN
THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
PLEASE SEE THE GENERAL FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ228-231-232.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND
DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EXPECTED COLD
FRONT....AROUND 20Z TO 22Z...CAUSES NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS ENOUGH
THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY
FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12Z. THEY WILL
THEN LOWER THROUGH MORNING HOURS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. BETWEEN 18Z TO 20Z...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AND CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WILL BE DURING ABOUT 21Z TO 03Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND
A MILE IN THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER
THE HEAVIER SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1007 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS
SATURDAY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A SECOND ONE MAY BRING MORE
WET WEATHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN CT/MA THIS HOUR AS
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS PA/SRN NY PER MSAS. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE PRECIP SHIELD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY BE A SPLIT BETWEEN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COLOCATED WITH THE MORE ROBUST LLJ AND THE DEFORMATION/F-GEN
INDUCED PRECIP TO THE N OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE TRACK IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIRECTLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...THIS
ACTUALLY PUTS US BETWEEN THE TWO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXES. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IT CONTINUES TO BE LESS DENSE ACROSS BOX THAN IT DOES OKX CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY FOG HEADLINES WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT A SHIELD OF LOWER DENSE FOG BLOSSOMING UP TO ABOUT
THE MASS PIKE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WILL
SEE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER IMPACTS BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONCLUDING TOWARDS MORNING:
1) LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET
MAINLY ACROSS THE S-COASTLINE OF NEW ENGLAND. HERE THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /CONVECTIVE
INDICES JUST AT OR NEAR THRESHOLDS/ WILL BRING WITH IT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE THUNDER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS
HAVE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER S/SE MA AND RI... ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET. LOW CONFIDENCE
/ RISK WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ...
2) MID-LEVEL FORCING COLLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS / DEFORMATION
TOWARDS THE NW- QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A BROADSCALE AREA OF OUTCOMES
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUTS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF NEW ENGLAND IN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TWO AREAS OF BEST FORCING. SUBSEQUENTLY IT IS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
N CT AND CENTRAL MA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 0.25
INCHES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER N AND W CLOSER TO AREAS OF BETTER LIFT.
ANOTHER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RESPECT TO DENSE FOG.
PRESENTLY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE S-COAST OF CT
WERE REPORTING QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES. FEEL THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON OUTCOMES. IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT AREAS OF S/SE NEW
ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN A SOUP. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS OF
SEEING A MAJORITY OF FOG IMPACTS AT HALF A MILE. COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SOME BREEZY SW-WINDS OFF THE OCEAN MAY LIMIT FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL BRIEF ONCOMING SHIFTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 12Z AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...OTHERWISE CLOUDS GIVE
WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MIDDAY...
THEN SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH STRONG PRES RISES. 850 MB
WINDS 40-50 KT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN IN
GUSTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT SO WE CONTINUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND. COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO N NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE N...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. LOW MOSTLY IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A SMALL CURVATURE IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE FLAT FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST USA. SHORTWAVE AND JET MOVE OUT OF THE WEST DURING
THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND
MIGRATES EAST MIDWEEK...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
SIMILARITY AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SPEED OF SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW. ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE EJECTION OF CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...IT/S A
CAVALCADE OF SHORTWAVES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SURFACE FEATURES AND RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LEAD AND WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 850 MB. WE SHOULD GET A SUNNY
START...WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DEEPLY WE MIX BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS GET
TOO THICK. DEEPER MIXING WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF TAPPING THE
STRONGER WINDS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -4C TO -6C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...MIXING TO 900 MB
WOULD SUGGEST 40S. WE OPTED FOR THE DEEPER MIXING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO NOTE THAT
TOTAL-TOTALS REACH THE UPPER 40S MOST AREAS BY EVENING. THIS WOULD
INDICATE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME. BEARS WATCHING.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY BE ABLE TO PULL IT NORTH OF OUR
AREA BY MONDAY. IF SO THEN THIS WOULD PLUNGE ALL OF OUR AREA INTO
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEW POINTS 25-30 SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO WET BULB DURING ANY SHOWERS...AND CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. BUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN...ANY PCPN SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THE BEST SUPPORT
OF PCPN MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
IN NORTHERN MASS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 15 PCT SOUTH OF US-44. TEMPS
AT 850 MB CLIMB TO 2C SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS 60-65. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKAGE OF THE SKY COVER BUT WITH
LESS FAVORABLE MIXING THAN SUNDAY. SO WE WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE FULL POTENTIAL...MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXCEPT 45-55 WHERE THE
WIND IS OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHILLY EAST- NORTHEAST WIND TO
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING JET RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA AND GENERATE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS NOTED
ABOVE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT COULD BE A
LITTLE SOONER OR IT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF CALIFORNIA FOR LATE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
0Z UPDATE...
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCT -RA BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...CONCLUDING INTO MORNING.
ISOLATED -TSRA / +RA MAINLY FOR S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR -
LIFR OUTCOMES...WORST FORECAST OVER RI AND S/SE MA TERMINALS.
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH 1/2SM ... POSSIBLE 1/4SM.
LLWS TOWARDS MORNING WITH SW 60-65 KT WINDS 2 KFT AGL.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING W TO E. BIG ISSUE
WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 20+ KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR-VLIFR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL
1/2SM FG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR-VLIFR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL
1/2SM FG AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY MAY START VFR BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN OR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TONIGHT...
SW FLOW RAMPS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AS LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES BUT INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW 30 KT.
VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY S
COASTAL WATERS.
SATURDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FROPA AS
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GUSTS 35-45 KT...STRONGEST OVER E MA COASTAL WATERS.
IMPROVING VSBYS AFTER WIND SHIFT TO NW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING GALES POSSIBLY E WATERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WIND WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA LATE SAT NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KNOTS...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUILDING SEAS WITH
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS...5 TO 6
FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
LIKELY...WITH A LOW-END CHANCE OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHTER EAST OF MA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WINDS EXPECTED TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND 20-25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY...BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50" EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE COASTLINE INCLUDING
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE SNOW LEFT IN E MA WITH 1-3 INCHES
SWE LEFT IN CENTRAL AND W MA. FORECAST RAINFALL AND INTERIOR
SNOWMELT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. NERFC HAS A
FEW RIVERS IN EASTERN MA REACHING ACTION STAGE INCLUDING THE NORTH
NASHUA...ASSABET...SUDBURY...AND TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER...AS
WELL AS THE PAWCATUCK IN SW RI. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVERS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-232>235-
237.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS
SATURDAY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A SECOND ONE MAY BRING MORE
WET WEATHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
*/ 7 PM UPDATE...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WILL SEE TWO AREAS OF
FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER IMPACTS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
CONCLUDING TOWARDS MORNING:
1) LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET
MAINLY ACROSS THE S-COASTLINE OF NEW ENGLAND. HERE THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /CONVECTIVE
INDICES JUST AT OR NEAR THRESHOLDS/ WILL BRING WITH IT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE THUNDER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS
HAVE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER S/SE MA AND RI... ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET. LOW CONFIDENCE
/ RISK WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ...
2) MID-LEVEL FORCING COLLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS / DEFORMATION
TOWARDS THE NW- QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A BROADSCALE AREA OF OUTCOMES
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUTS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF NEW ENGLAND IN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TWO AREAS OF BEST FORCING. SUBSEQUENTLY IT IS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
N CT AND CENTRAL MA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 0.25
INCHES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER N AND W CLOSER TO AREAS OF BETTER LIFT.
ANOTHER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RESPECT TO DENSE FOG.
PRESENTLY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE S-COAST OF CT
WERE REPORTING QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES. FEEL THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON OUTCOMES. IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT AREAS OF S/SE NEW
ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN A SOUP. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS OF
SEEING A MAJORITY OF FOG IMPACTS AT HALF A MILE. COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SOME BREEZY SW-WINDS OFF THE OCEAN MAY LIMIT FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL BRIEF ONCOMING SHIFTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 12Z AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...OTHERWISE CLOUDS GIVE
WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MIDDAY...
THEN SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH STRONG PRES RISES. 850 MB
WINDS 40-50 KT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN IN
GUSTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT SO WE CONTINUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND. COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO N NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE N...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. LOW MOSTLY IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A SMALL CURVATURE IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE FLAT FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST USA. SHORTWAVE AND JET MOVE OUT OF THE WEST DURING
THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND
MIGRATES EAST MIDWEEK...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
SIMILARITY AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SPEED OF SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW. ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE EJECTION OF CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...IT/S A
CAVALCADE OF SHORTWAVES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SURFACE FEATURES AND RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LEAD AND WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 850 MB. WE SHOULD GET A SUNNY
START...WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DEEPLY WE MIX BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS GET
TOO THICK. DEEPER MIXING WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF TAPPING THE
STRONGER WINDS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -4C TO -6C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...MIXING TO 900 MB
WOULD SUGGEST 40S. WE OPTED FOR THE DEEPER MIXING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO NOTE THAT
TOTAL-TOTALS REACH THE UPPER 40S MOST AREAS BY EVENING. THIS WOULD
INDICATE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME. BEARS WATCHING.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY BE ABLE TO PULL IT NORTH OF OUR
AREA BY MONDAY. IF SO THEN THIS WOULD PLUNGE ALL OF OUR AREA INTO
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEW POINTS 25-30 SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO WET BULB DURING ANY SHOWERS...AND CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. BUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN...ANY PCPN SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THE BEST SUPPORT
OF PCPN MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
IN NORTHERN MASS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 15 PCT SOUTH OF US-44. TEMPS
AT 850 MB CLIMB TO 2C SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS 60-65. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKAGE OF THE SKY COVER BUT WITH
LESS FAVORABLE MIXING THAN SUNDAY. SO WE WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE FULL POTENTIAL...MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXCEPT 45-55 WHERE THE
WIND IS OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHILLY EAST- NORTHEAST WIND TO
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING JET RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA AND GENERATE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS NOTED
ABOVE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT COULD BE A
LITTLE SOONER OR IT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF CALIFORNIA FOR LATE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
0Z UPDATE...
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SCT -RA BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...CONCLUDING INTO MORNING.
ISOLATED -TSRA / +RA MAINLY FOR S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. MVFR -
LIFR OUTCOMES...WORST FORECAST OVER RI AND S/SE MA TERMINALS.
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH 1/2SM ... POSSIBLE 1/4SM.
LLWS TOWARDS MORNING WITH SW 60-65 KT WINDS 2 KFT AGL.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MORNING W TO E. BIG ISSUE
WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...SUSTAINED 20+ KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR-VLIFR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL
1/2SM FG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR-VLIFR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL
1/2SM FG AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY MAY START VFR BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN OR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TONIGHT...
SW FLOW RAMPS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AS LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES BUT INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW 30 KT.
VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY S
COASTAL WATERS.
SATURDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FROPA AS
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GUSTS 35-45 KT...STRONGEST OVER E MA COASTAL WATERS.
IMPROVING VSBYS AFTER WIND SHIFT TO NW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING GALES POSSIBLY E WATERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WIND WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA LATE SAT NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KNOTS...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUILDING SEAS WITH
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS...5 TO 6
FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
LIKELY...WITH A LOW-END CHANCE OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHTER EAST OF MA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WINDS EXPECTED TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND 20-25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY...BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50" EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE COASTLINE INCLUDING
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE SNOW LEFT IN E MA WITH 1-3 INCHES
SWE LEFT IN CENTRAL AND W MA. FORECAST RAINFALL AND INTERIOR
SNOWMELT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. NERFC HAS A
FEW RIVERS IN EASTERN MA REACHING ACTION STAGE INCLUDING THE NORTH
NASHUA...ASSABET...SUDBURY...AND TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER...AS
WELL AS THE PAWCATUCK IN SW RI. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVERS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-232>235-
237.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/KJC/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...KJC/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AND OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, TO
OUR WEST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
REGION. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, WE EXPECT INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND
PERHAPS NORTHERN NJ. POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE EVENING BASED ON HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK AS STEADIER SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION AT THAT TIME.
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
MOSTLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH, BUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
SHOWERS. WE HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTIONS OF
THUNDER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA, AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, ANOTHER MILD DAY IN EXPECTED, WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WE MAINLY BASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON A
MET/MAV BLEND WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER
70S INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHC FOR THUNDER IN
THERE FOR FRI EVENING WITH SOME OF THE INSTABILITY INDICESPOINTING
THAT WAY. POPS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE LINGERING H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SKY COVER
IMPROVES TO SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FRI
NIGHT AND BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.
FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS IS ALL THAT IS
MENTIONED FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOL SUN MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER FOR NEXT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
WE HAVE NOT PLACED THEM IN THE GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. POPS ARE
GENERALLY LIKE THE WPC GRIDS...MOSTLY CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOME
SCT CIRRUS THROUGH LATE-DAY, GIVING WAY TO A CEILING AROUND 10,000
FEET DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THEN
DIMINISHING A LITTLE, WITH GUSTS AVERAGING MORE AROUND 22 TO 25 KT
THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 20 TO 23 KTS.
MODEST LLWS APPEARS PROBABLE IN THE 03Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME, BUT MOST
OF THE 45 TO 50 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET LOOK TO BE
ABOVE 2,000 FEET, AND WITH CONTINUED SURFACE WIND GUSTS DURING THIS
PERIOD, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY...SOME INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, SOME THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOME STEADIER SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
WE KEPT ALL TAF SITES AT MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE SHOWERS
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AVERAGING
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8 TO 14 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MON NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 10Z/SAT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT PLUS AREA AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, REACHING 5 TO 8 FEET
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN. SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF TO 15 TO 20 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT THAT TIME. ALSO,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25-30
PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE ANY SNOW
COVER(N OF I-80).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1143 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL COUNTIES FROM WATCH.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH 1AM...
UPDATE...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH NW GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS SEEN SOME
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE ENERGY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT ENOUGH
FUEL FOR STORM REMAINS TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 KTS ALSO ENCROACHING
UPON NW GEORGIA FURTHER SUPPORTING SEVERE POTENTIAL. NATURE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST HAS BEEN MAINLY OF A BOW STRUCTURE TYPE NATURE
WITH VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA WITH STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH
ONE OF THESE VORTICES. FURTHER EAST INTO THE WATCH IS MORE SUSPECT
AS CAPE VALUE ARE NIL THERE AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINAL CAPE VALUES TO TRANSLATE EAST TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH 1AM.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE IT TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND ISSUED A SVR WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST GEORGIA...IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY. A SWATH OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...NEAR 1000 J/KG...ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE METRO ATLANTA AREA.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BETWEEN
10 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA AROUND 6-7 PM THIS EVENING... THEN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA DURING THE EVENING... THEN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS COULD INITIALLY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY PUSH INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AS
MODELS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPES JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW GA THIS EVENING... AND MODEL PROFILES
SUGGEST THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A ROME
TO CHATSWORTH LINE BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS COULD REMAIN
RATHER STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE DURING THE EVENING... BUT
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH WHILE INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MAIN STORM THREATS IN NW GA THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH SUCH STRONG WIND SHEAR VALUES NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM SAT MORNING... THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 3-4 AM SATURDAY FOR ALL
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS NORTH GA... AND ONE HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL GA... SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY... WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA HOLDS
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW... BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY IF TONIGHT`S MODEL RUN COMES IN A BIT STRONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HOLD SATURDAY HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH... 70S CENTRAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT PLUMMET INTO THE
30S AND 40S... WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING
ELSEWHERE... SO MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING.
39
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OR EVENTS TO KEY IN ON DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EVENT MONDAY MORNING
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OR INSTABILITY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOWER. FOLLOWING
THIS EVENT...PATTERN DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AFTER WED...SW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. INGREDIENTS DO NOT
APPEAR ENOUGH TO SEE MANY SEVERE STORMS BUT ENOUGH TO WORTH
MENTIONING. BY LATE WEEK...12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF DIVERGE A LITTLE ON
PROGRESSION OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH GFS/GEM
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC...THUS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING. ALAS THAT IS QUITE A WAY OUT...THE
WAY WE LIKE SVR STORMS TO BE AS WELL...FAR AWAY.
SNELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
REST OF THE EXTENDED INDICATING A WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND INCREASES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STORMS
TENDING TO HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE. TEMPERATURES WARMING AS WELL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL FAVOR N GA.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THEN TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY.
BDL
AVIATION..
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATL AIRFIELDS FIRST AT 05Z AND THEN
AFFECTING MCN AND CSG A FEW HOURS LATER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR CIGS SHOWING SOME IFR POTENTIAL AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. NOT CONVINCED ON THIS ASPECT YET AS UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT MVFR
FORECAST BUT MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NEEDED CHANGES. BECOMING WINDY ON
SAT WITH CURRENT TAF HANDLING THIS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
LIKELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 68 39 68 / 60 10 0 5
ATLANTA 51 65 41 67 / 70 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 45 60 33 61 / 70 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 50 63 38 66 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 70 43 70 / 60 10 0 5
GAINESVILLE 51 63 39 64 / 70 10 0 0
MACON 59 71 40 70 / 60 30 0 5
ROME 49 63 36 66 / 80 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 53 67 38 68 / 70 10 0 5
VIDALIA 63 75 44 71 / 40 40 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...
FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO CANCEL COUNTIES FROM WATCH.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH 1AM...
UPDATE...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH NW GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS SEEN SOME
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE ENERGY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT ENOUGH
FUEL FOR STORM REMAINS TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 KTS ALSO ENCROACHING
UPON NW GEORGIA FURTHER SUPPORTING SEVERE POTENTIAL. NATURE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST HAS BEEN MAINLY OF A BOW STRUCTURE TYPE NATURE
WITH VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA WITH STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH
ONE OF THESE VORTICES. FURTHER EAST INTO THE WATCH IS MORE SUSPECT
AS CAPE VALUE ARE NIL THERE AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINAL CAPE VALUES TO TRANSLATE EAST TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH 1AM.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE IT TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY.
DEESE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND ISSUED A SVR WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST GEORGIA...IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY. A SWATH OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...NEAR 1000 J/KG...ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE METRO ATLANTA AREA.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BETWEEN
10 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA AROUND 6-7 PM THIS EVENING... THEN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA DURING THE EVENING... THEN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS COULD INITIALLY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY PUSH INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AS
MODELS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPES JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW GA THIS EVENING... AND MODEL PROFILES
SUGGEST THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A ROME
TO CHATSWORTH LINE BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS COULD REMAIN
RATHER STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE DURING THE EVENING... BUT
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH WHILE INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MAIN STORM THREATS IN NW GA THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH SUCH STRONG WIND SHEAR VALUES NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM SAT MORNING... THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 3-4 AM SATURDAY FOR ALL
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS NORTH GA... AND ONE HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL GA... SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY... WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA HOLDS
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW... BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY IF TONIGHT`S MODEL RUN COMES IN A BIT STRONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HOLD SATURDAY HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH... 70S CENTRAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT PLUMMET INTO THE
30S AND 40S... WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING
ELSEWHERE... SO MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING.
39
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OR EVENTS TO KEY IN ON DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EVENT MONDAY MORNING
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OR INSTABILITY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOWER. FOLLOWING
THIS EVENT...PATTERN DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AFTER WED...SW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. INGREDIENTS DO NOT
APPEAR ENOUGH TO SEE MANY SEVERE STORMS BUT ENOUGH TO WORTH
MENTIONING. BY LATE WEEK...12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF DIVERGE A LITTLE ON
PROGRESSION OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH GFS/GEM
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC...THUS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING. ALAS THAT IS QUITE A WAY OUT...THE
WAY WE LIKE SVR STORMS TO BE AS WELL...FAR AWAY.
SNELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
REST OF THE EXTENDED INDICATING A WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND INCREASES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STORMS
TENDING TO HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE. TEMPERATURES WARMING AS WELL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL FAVOR N GA.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THEN TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY.
BDL
AVIATION..
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATL AIRFIELDS FIRST AT 05Z AND THEN
AFFECTING MCN AND CSG A FEW HOURS LATER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR CIGS SHOWING SOME IFR POTENTIAL AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. NOT CONVINCED ON THIS ASPECT YET AS UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT MVFR
FORECAST BUT MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NEEDED CHANGES. BECOMING WINDY ON
SAT WITH CURRENT TAF HANDLING THIS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
LIKELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 68 39 68 / 60 10 0 5
ATLANTA 51 65 41 67 / 70 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 45 60 33 61 / 70 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 50 63 38 66 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 70 43 70 / 60 10 0 5
GAINESVILLE 51 63 39 64 / 70 10 0 0
MACON 59 71 40 70 / 60 30 0 5
ROME 49 63 36 66 / 80 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 53 67 38 68 / 70 10 0 5
VIDALIA 63 75 44 71 / 40 40 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
909 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTH GEORGIA
THROUGH 1AM...
.UPDATE...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH NW GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS SEEN SOME
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE ENERGY WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT ENOUGH
FUEL FOR STORM REMAINS TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 KTS ALSO ENCROACHING
UPON NW GEORGIA FURTHER SUPPORTING SEVERE POTENTIAL. NATURE OF
STORMS TO THE WEST HAS BEEN MAINLY OF A BOW STRUCTURE TYPE NATURE
WITH VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BOW. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA WITH STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH
ONE OF THESE VORTICES. FURTHER EAST INTO THE WATCH IS MORE SUSPECT
AS CAPE VALUE ARE NIL THERE AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
MARGINAL CAPE VALUES TO TRANSLATE EAST TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH 1AM.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE IT TO THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY.
DEESE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND ISSUED A SVR WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST GEORGIA...IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY. A SWATH OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...NEAR 1000 J/KG...ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE STATE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE METRO ATLANTA AREA.
31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NW GA BETWEEN
10 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA AROUND 6-7 PM THIS EVENING... THEN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA DURING THE EVENING... THEN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL GA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS COULD INITIALLY
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY PUSH INTO NW GA THIS EVENING AS
MODELS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPES JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NW GA THIS EVENING... AND MODEL PROFILES
SUGGEST THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A ROME
TO CHATSWORTH LINE BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. STORMS COULD REMAIN
RATHER STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE DURING THE EVENING... BUT
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH WHILE INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MAIN STORM THREATS IN NW GA THIS EVENING WILL BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH SUCH STRONG WIND SHEAR VALUES NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM SAT MORNING... THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 3-4 AM SATURDAY FOR ALL
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS NORTH GA... AND ONE HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS CENTRAL GA... SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES ON SATURDAY... WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA HOLDS
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW... BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY IF TONIGHT`S MODEL RUN COMES IN A BIT STRONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HOLD SATURDAY HIGHS IN
THE 60S NORTH... 70S CENTRAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT PLUMMET INTO THE
30S AND 40S... WITH SOME SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING
ELSEWHERE... SO MAKE PLANS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING.
39
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OR EVENTS TO KEY IN ON DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION EVENT MONDAY MORNING
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OR INSTABILITY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE LOWER. FOLLOWING
THIS EVENT...PATTERN DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND AFTER WED...SW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. INGREDIENTS DO NOT
APPEAR ENOUGH TO SEE MANY SEVERE STORMS BUT ENOUGH TO WORTH
MENTIONING. BY LATE WEEK...12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF DIVERGE A LITTLE ON
PROGRESSION OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH GFS/GEM
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC...THUS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING. ALAS THAT IS QUITE A WAY OUT...THE
WAY WE LIKE SVR STORMS TO BE AS WELL...FAR AWAY.
SNELSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
FOR SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WEAKENING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE.
REST OF THE EXTENDED INDICATING A WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND INCREASES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STORMS
TENDING TO HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE. TEMPERATURES WARMING AS WELL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL FAVOR N GA.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW NORMAL THEN TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY.
BDL
AVIATION..
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015/
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK THIS EVENING FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATL AIRFIELDS FIRST AT 05Z AND THEN
AFFECTING MCN AND CSG A FEW HOURS LATER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR CIGS SHOWING SOME IFR POTENTIAL AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. NOT CONVINCED ON THIS ASPECT YET AS UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT MVFR
FORECAST BUT MONITOR CLOSELY FOR NEEDED CHANGES. BECOMING WINDY ON
SAT WITH CURRENT TAF HANDLING THIS WELL WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
LIKELY.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 68 39 68 / 60 10 0 5
ATLANTA 51 65 41 67 / 70 10 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 45 60 33 61 / 70 10 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 50 63 38 66 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 70 43 70 / 60 10 0 5
GAINESVILLE 51 63 39 64 / 70 10 0 0
MACON 59 71 40 70 / 60 30 0 5
ROME 49 63 36 66 / 80 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 53 67 38 68 / 70 10 0 5
VIDALIA 63 75 44 71 / 40 40 0 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
02/21Z SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SEA BREEZE HAS CLEARED
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND ENTERED EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WHICH
ARE MOVING INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGEST
THE SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER AROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAP INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH LI`S OF -2 TO -4C) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY-MID EVENING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS JUXTAPOSED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-25 KT.
02/18Z DATA ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW
CLOUDS THINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES
AND THE BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST.
SUSPECT THE FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
LATE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND IS RATHER LOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. INCREASED POPS UP TO
30 PERCENT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF METTER-SAINT GEORGE LINE.
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED PENDING LATER RADAR TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
* DOWNGRADED THE AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIER TO PATCHY.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE H3R/RAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND EVEN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IS SEA FOG. WITH DEW
POINTS RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PLACE OVER THE COOL COASTAL
WATERS...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THIS SEA FOG WILL SKIRT OR BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...ENSURING THAT ANY SEA FOG THAT MOVED INLAND WILL BE
SHUNTED QUICKLY BACK OFFSHORE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY LATE. MAINTAINED A MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST LATE. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE
DECENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY MORNING....MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN AND THE IMPACTS OF THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH ALONG A WAVY FRONT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE OF FRONT FOR THE MOST PART...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY AND 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COAST WILL
BE COOLER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AS THE DISTURBANCES PASS BY...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY
ONE PARTICULAR DAY THAT MIGHT SEE MORE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE TIME
IT WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A LITTLE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KSAV JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY 09-12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 10-12 HOURS OUT. A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT004 BKN008 WILL BE UTILIZED TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AT KCHS IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS
UNIFORM. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VFR THERE FOR NOW. VFR WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 04/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND DECREASING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WE COULD SEE PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE COAST. WITH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY SMALL...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DENSE
SEA FOG IS UNLIKELY AND THAT IF ANY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPS IT BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT PERSIST VERY LONG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE FROM
2 TO 3 FEET ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THERE TO BE LESS SEA
FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME LATE WHICH
WOULD ALSO FAVOR LESS SEA FOG LATE.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE THE WINDS COME DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE UP FOR A WHILE AS WELL DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE ATLANTIC.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
555 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
02/21Z SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SEA BREEZE HAS CLEARED
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND ENTERED EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WHICH
ARE MOVING INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGEST
THE SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER AROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAP INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH LI`S OF -2 TO -4C) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY-MID EVENING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS JUXTAPOSED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-25 KT.
02/18Z DATA ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW
CLOUDS THINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES
AND THE BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST.
SUSPECT THE FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
LATE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND IS RATHER LOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. INCREASED POPS UP TO
30 PERCENT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF METTER-SAINT GEORGE LINE.
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED PENDING LATER RADAR TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
* DOWNGRADED THE AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIER TO PATCHY.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE H3R/RAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND EVEN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IS SEA FOG. WITH DEW
POINTS RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PLACE OVER THE COOL COASTAL
WATERS...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THIS SEA FOG WILL SKIRT OR BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...ENSURING THAT ANY SEA FOG THAT MOVED INLAND WILL BE
SHUNTED QUICKLY BACK OFFSHORE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY LATE. MAINTAINED A MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST LATE. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE
DECENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY MORNING....MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN AND THE IMPACTS OF THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH ALONG A WAVY FRONT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE OF FRONT FOR THE MOST PART...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY AND 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COAST WILL
BE COOLER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AS THE DISTURBANCES PASS BY...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY
ONE PARTICULAR DAY THAT MIGHT SEE MORE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE TIME
IT WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE MOISTURE FLUX WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WE HAVE A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AT BOTH
SITES. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THOUGH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE WILL BE INLAND OF BOTH
SITES WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND DECREASING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WE COULD SEE PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE COAST. WITH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY SMALL...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DENSE
SEA FOG IS UNLIKELY AND THAT IF ANY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPS IT BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT PERSIST VERY LONG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE FROM
2 TO 3 FEET ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THERE TO BE LESS SEA
FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME LATE WHICH
WOULD ALSO FAVOR LESS SEA FOG LATE.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE THE WINDS COME DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE UP FOR A WHILE AS WELL DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE ATLANTIC.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO MEANDER AROUND
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TIMING OF RAIN WILL DEPEND ON EXACT FRONTAL
LOCATION AND ANY UPPER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BOTH OF
WHICH ARE TOO VARIABLE TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. WILL THUS STICK
WITH SUPERBLEND AND ITS DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND SOME DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING PREDOMINANT MVFR. PERIODS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW IN THE SPECIFICS.
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT OF KLAF AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR OUT OF KHUF BY
VALID TIME. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR
EXPECTED.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE. WILL JUST GO WITH VC MENTION. MANY
STATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN
AT MOST SITES FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL STALL. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY JUST WENT MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LAFAYETTE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS BETTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
BAND OF SHRA/TS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FWA BY 18Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THIS CONVECTION BACK TO THE CDFNT OVER NRN IL SHOULD
PERSIST THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TS EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... HWVR GIVEN CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THERE IS SUFFICIENT
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH AT
SBN AND VCTS AT FWA FOR NOW. WITH FROPA THIS EVE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER FROPA THIS EVE. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT STALLS TO THE S-SE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING PREDOMINANT MVFR. PERIODS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW IN THE SPECIFICS.
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT OF KLAF AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR OUT OF KHUF BY
VALID TIME. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR
EXPECTED.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE. WILL JUST GO WITH VC MENTION. MANY
STATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN
AT MOST SITES FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL STALL. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY JUST WENT MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LAFAYETTE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS BETTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH KIND AT THE MOMENT...BUT RADAR
SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER AT KIND...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
STARTING AT 15Z. STILL WATCHING ON DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER
AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
629 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
AS EXPECTED SEEING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG INITIAL THETA E SURGE. ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM AS WELL. WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PCPN TODAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TRENDS IN TAFS. FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN SOUTH OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AT KFWA DEPENDING ON HOW FAST DRIER
AIR WORKS IN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY/LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE BETTER 850MB MOISTURE ARRIVES BY 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI. ONCE THIS CONVECTIONS
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE MAY BE A LULL DURING THE LATE
MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HANDLED
PERIOD OF LOWER CIG/VISBY IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH A 4
HOUR TEMPO GROUP. BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET NEARS 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE TIME
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT ISSUANCE TIME...IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS AROUND 2KFT AT 50KT...SUGGESTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDERDOING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SHEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WHEN GUSTS BEGIN.
EVEN WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ALL SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...LEE/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW WARMER AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ARRIVING.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW REACHES OF INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT
HINT AT IT BEING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE TIME
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT ISSUANCE TIME...IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS AROUND 2KFT AT 50KT...SUGGESTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDERDOING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SHEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WHEN GUSTS BEGIN.
EVEN WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ALL SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...LEE/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND...REDUCING POPS TO SLIGHTS IN OUR
FAR EASTERN CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEFORE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
BUREAU COUNTY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN LAST NIGHT...AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REPORTED LESS THAN 1/4 INCH WITH
SOME SPOTS NOT A DROP OF RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD AS FAR
NORTH AS ABOUT HIGHWAY 30. ON THE NORTH FRINGE THERE MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KCID/KMLI. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND...REDUCING POPS TO SLIGHTS IN OUR
FAR EASTERN CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEFORE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
BUREAU COUNTY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN LAST NIGHT...AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REPORTED LESS THAN 1/4 INCH WITH
SOME SPOTS NOT A DROP OF RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
730 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. FROM 18Z-00Z VFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR AT BOTH SITES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LACKING...EXPECT
ENOUGH LIFT FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z...AND MENTIONED STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH SITES. MAIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
AFTER 06Z...AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
STEADILY AFTER THAT TIME. SO...EXPECT RAIN TURNING TO SNOW FROM
08Z-12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND POSSIBLY LOWER. SURFACE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE TONIGHT AT 8PM THROUGH 11
PM FRIDAY. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GUIDANCE AND 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND NEIGHBORING WFOS.
GREATEST THREAT IS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATCH...BUT WANTED TO
ALLOW A BUFFER ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE WATCH SO HAVE INCLUDED
ALL BY THE VA BORDER COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH INCREASING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE EXAMINING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAKE
DETERMINATION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WPC
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE
MOST. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ALOFT OVER THE REGION...A WET AND
STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE. AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WAS ON THE WAY IN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE NEAR 60
FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECTED
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING CONVECTION IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY MOVES EAST TODAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL
INITIALLY BATTLE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR OVER OUR
AREA...AND ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN USED TODAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE...AND
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THERE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL BE LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A
HIGHER POP. HOWEVER...THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...AND THEN GET
A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
JUST TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SINCE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD
MEAN HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A GREATER THREAT
OF FLOODING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING THIS EVENT...AND SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA E...AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AS ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RAIN...AND
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF KENTUCKY. COOLER...DRIER
AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S AND MID 60S
RESPECTIVELY.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS TURN MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. IN
FACT... CAPE AND LI/S LOOK JUST AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DOES IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. SO HAVE WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR TO OK WILL ONLY
SLOWING MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST WE ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-
106>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH INCREASING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE EXAMINING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAKE
DETERMINATION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WPC
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE
MOST. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ALOFT OVER THE REGION...A WET AND
STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE. AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WAS ON THE WAY IN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE NEAR 60
FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECTED
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING CONVECTION IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY MOVES EAST TODAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL
INITIALLY BATTLE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR OVER OUR
AREA...AND ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN USED TODAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE...AND
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THERE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL BE LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A
HIGHER POP. HOWEVER...THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...AND THEN GET
A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
JUST TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SINCE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD
MEAN HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A GREATER THREAT
OF FLOODING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING THIS EVENT...AND SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA E...AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AS ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RAIN...AND
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF KENTUCKY. COOLER...DRIER
AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S AND MID 60S
RESPECTIVELY.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS TURN MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. IN
FACT... CAPE AND LI/S LOOK JUST AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DOES IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. SO HAVE WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIKELY BRINGING LOCALIZED
MVFR OR WORSE IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOMERSET TO MOREHEAD. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND BRING LOCALIZED
SUB-VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION PRECLUDES USING
ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN MOST TAFS. A LULL IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH ADDITION
PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S AND SW DURING THE MORNING...WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1210 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5-15 KTS. CLIMB WINDS ARE BRISK WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PICKING UP A BIT SINCE SUNSET WITH DEEP SW FLOW
25-50KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX ATTM AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHWRS WITH
LEFT OVER OUTFLOWS. WE WILL AMEND FOR ANY SUCH WITH FURTHER
DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. OUTLOOK IS FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF MID-EVENING...AS INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED SINCE THE SETTING
SUN. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO SE OK/ECNTRL TX...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA STAGE RIGHT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE 00Z NAM
HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING AREA OF -SHRA POORLY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS
NOT...AND MAINTAINS THESE -SHRA OVER DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E WITH THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS WORKED OVER FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS LATE. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN RESULTING
IN GUSTY SRLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO ANALYZE THE ENTIRE SUITE OF 00Z DATA
TONIGHT...WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADJUST POPS PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL
LA. DID LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE THURSDAY...AS THE
TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS...AS WINDS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 81 68 80 / 30 20 10 40
MLU 64 83 66 81 / 30 20 10 50
DEQ 63 78 64 74 / 20 20 30 40
TXK 65 80 66 77 / 30 20 20 40
ELD 64 82 66 79 / 30 20 10 40
TYR 66 82 68 78 / 30 20 10 40
GGG 67 82 68 79 / 30 20 10 40
LFK 67 84 69 80 / 40 20 10 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1046 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1040 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPS TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY. PCPN IN THE FORM
OF RAIN HAS SPREAD INTO CONNECTICUT AT THIS TIME AS LOPRES
DEEPENS ACRS NORTH-CENTRAL PA. AT THE SAME TIME, PCPN IS NOW
FALLING IN SRN QUEBEC ALONG SFC BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH. EXPECT THAT
THIS WL BE THE FIRST AREA TO SEE PCPN LATE TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY IN COMBINATION WITH WV LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NY STATE. HV BACKED OFF POPS FOR DOWNEAST UNTIL CLOSER TO
09Z AS LOW BEGINS TO EXIT INTO GULF OF MAINE. NO FURTHER UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
740 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SLOW TIMING OF POPS BY SVRL HRS AS MODELS HV
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SYSTEM. HRRR AND LATEST RAP HAVE BEST HANDLE
ON EVOLUTION OF PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD PCPN TO OVRSPRD CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO 08Z THO LATEST RUC,
DELAYS UPGLIDE UNTIL AFT 09Z AND MAINLY CONFINES IT TO FAR WRN
MAINE. BUT HV STARTED THE TREND OF SLOWING MVMNT DOWN AND WITH
NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO DELAY IT EVEN FURTHER. FOR NOW, WL
CONTINUE WITH ADVISORY STARTING AT 07Z AND IF 00Z MODELS BACK OFF
EVEN MORE, MAY NEED TO ADJUST START TIME. STILL EXPECTING ALL SNOW
OVR THE FAR NORTH WITH RA/SN MIX OVR SE AROOSTOOK AND SNOW
GRADUALLY HEADING SOUTH WITH TIME AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN BHND
SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
AFTER AN ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS HINT OF SPRING WEATHER, WINTER WILL
MAKE ITS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TREK FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST
OFF THE NH/MA/ME COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY, DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OF AS SNOW, BUT CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL START OUT AS RAIN. HOWEVER, THE RAIN WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE LOW`S WAKE.
THE DIFFICULTY BECOMES DETERMINING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE
WILL BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL SET UP SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING PER THE LATEST NAM.
THESE BANDS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THIS BAND, WHICH MEANS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF
TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE IT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION UNTIL COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
A DOVER-FOXCROFT TO DANFORTH LINE. HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE BAND SETS UP, BUT THIS IS STILL TOO
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY FOR SURE WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UP FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY,
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET, IT
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVG E AWAY FROM THE FA THRU THE ERN
MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SNFL ALREADY INTO CNTRL NB PROV. WITH THIS IN MIND...SAT NGT
SHOULD OFFER SOME CLRG SKIES AND COLD TEMPS WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN PROVIDING BRISK CONDITIONS. ON SUN...A S/WV FROM N CNTRL
CAN ACCOMPANIED BY A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENTER WRN PTNS
OF THE FA ERLY IN THE MORN AND FINISH CROSSING THE REGION BY MID
AFTN. THE BEST CHC OF SN SHWRS...WHICH WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF...WILL BE ACROSS THE N SUN MORN. WITH CLRG SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SUN NGT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...
SPCLY OVR NRN BROAD RVR VLYS. ON MON...CLDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
S AS A WEAK S/WV MOVG ESE FROM THE GREAT LKS BRINGS THE FRONT THAT
CLRS THE FA ON SUN SLIGHTLY NWRD INTO THE GULF OF ME. BY
AFTN...THERE COULD BE LGT SNFL OVR DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA...WITH THE HIGHEST...LIKELY POPS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LIKE SUN...HI TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN BE SIG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING
THAT THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF ME WILL MSLY REMAIN S OF THE FA MON
NGT THRU WED MORN. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LGT SNFL MON AFTN TO EXIT
THE FA SE MON EVE. OTHER WEAK S/WVS MOVG E FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY
BRING CHCS OF LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION LATER WED INTO WED EVE AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATER THU INTO THU NGT...WITH SN/RN SHWRS PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL CONT BELOW AVG...WITH VERY CHILLY
NGTS POSSIBLE MON...TUE AND WED NGTS SPCLY ACROSS THE N WITH MSLY
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOME FOR THU AND
FRI AS THE CORE OF...PERHAPS THE LAST SIG COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON MOVES E OF THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDS FIRST FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM
SPREADS MOISTURE INTO TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN THREE TERMINALS BY 03Z WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. IFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BY 08Z IN -SN AT FVE, CAR AND PQI WITH -RASN
AT HUL. LGT RAIN FOR BGR BY 08Z WITH MVFR -RA AT BHB BY THIS TIME,
DROPPING TO IFR BY 11Z. IFR/LOW MVFR THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR SAT NGT INTO MON MORN...WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN SN SHWRS SUN MORN OVR SPCLY NRN TAF SITES
WITH A COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS WILL BE MON
AFTN AND ERLY EVE MSLY ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY LGT SN AND
AGAIN WED AFTN WITH LGT SN OR MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING ON ITS
BACKSIDE. GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
TO SCA CONDITIONS SAT EVE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS MSLY CONTG THRU
SUN AND SUN EVE AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BLO SCA THRESHOLDS
BY MON AND CONT THRU WED. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST
WV HTS THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS MERIT WATCHING INTO TONIGHT.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT ACROSS THE HSA. ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WATERWAYS SUCH AS THE KINGSBURY
STREAM, PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS. A BATCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT WILL ADD TO RUNOFF
AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RISES. ATTM, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
748 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY IN
THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SLOW TIMING OF POPS BY SVRL HRS AS MODELS HV
TRENDED SLOWER WITH SYSTEM. HRRR AND LATEST RAP HAVE BEST HANDLE
ON EVOLUTION OF PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD PCPN TO OVRSPRD CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO 08Z THO LATEST RUC,
DELAYS UPGLIDE UNTIL AFT 09Z AND MAINLY CONFINES IT TO FAR WRN
MAINE. BUT HV STARTED THE TREND OF SLOWING MVMNT DOWN AND WITH
NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO DELAY IT EVEN FURTHER. FOR NOW, WL
CONTINUE WITH ADVISORY STARTING AT 07Z AND IF 00Z MODELS BACK OFF
EVEN MORE, MAY NEED TO ADJUST START TIME. STILL EXPECTING ALL SNOW
OVR THE FAR NORTH WITH RA/SN MIX OVR SE AROOSTOOK AND SNOW
GRADUALLY HEADING SOUTH WITH TIME AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN BHND
SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
AFTER AN ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS HINT OF SPRING WEATHER, WINTER WILL
MAKE ITS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TREK FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST
OFF THE NH/MA/ME COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE SATURDAY, DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL BRING A SLUG OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OF AS SNOW, BUT CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL START OUT AS RAIN. HOWEVER, THE RAIN WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE LOW`S WAKE.
THE DIFFICULTY BECOMES DETERMINING EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE
WILL BE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL SET UP SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING PER THE LATEST NAM.
THESE BANDS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS UP INTO THE NORTH MAINE WOODS AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. THIS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THIS BAND, WHICH MEANS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF
TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WHILE IT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION UNTIL COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
A DOVER-FOXCROFT TO DANFORTH LINE. HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THE BAND SETS UP, BUT THIS IS STILL TOO
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY FOR SURE WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UP FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY,
WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET, IT
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVG E AWAY FROM THE FA THRU THE ERN
MARITIMES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SNFL ALREADY INTO CNTRL NB PROV. WITH THIS IN MIND...SAT NGT
SHOULD OFFER SOME CLRG SKIES AND COLD TEMPS WITH MDT LLVL COLD
ADVCN PROVIDING BRISK CONDITIONS. ON SUN...A S/WV FROM N CNTRL
CAN ACCOMPANIED BY A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL ENTER WRN PTNS
OF THE FA ERLY IN THE MORN AND FINISH CROSSING THE REGION BY MID
AFTN. THE BEST CHC OF SN SHWRS...WHICH WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF...WILL BE ACROSS THE N SUN MORN. WITH CLRG SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SUN NGT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...
SPCLY OVR NRN BROAD RVR VLYS. ON MON...CLDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
S AS A WEAK S/WV MOVG ESE FROM THE GREAT LKS BRINGS THE FRONT THAT
CLRS THE FA ON SUN SLIGHTLY NWRD INTO THE GULF OF ME. BY
AFTN...THERE COULD BE LGT SNFL OVR DOWNEAST AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA...WITH THE HIGHEST...LIKELY POPS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LIKE SUN...HI TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN BE SIG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING
THAT THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF ME WILL MSLY REMAIN S OF THE FA MON
NGT THRU WED MORN. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY LGT SNFL MON AFTN TO EXIT
THE FA SE MON EVE. OTHER WEAK S/WVS MOVG E FROM THE GREAT LKS MAY
BRING CHCS OF LGT PRECIP TO THE REGION LATER WED INTO WED EVE AND
PERHAPS AGAIN LATER THU INTO THU NGT...WITH SN/RN SHWRS PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL CONT BELOW AVG...WITH VERY CHILLY
NGTS POSSIBLE MON...TUE AND WED NGTS SPCLY ACROSS THE N WITH MSLY
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOME FOR THU AND
FRI AS THE CORE OF...PERHAPS THE LAST SIG COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON MOVES E OF THE FA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDS FIRST FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM
SPREADS MOISTURE INTO TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN THREE TERMINALS BY 03Z WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. IFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BY 08Z IN -SN AT FVE, CAR AND PQI WITH -RASN
AT HUL. LGT RAIN FOR BGR BY 08Z WITH MVFR -RA AT BHB BY THIS TIME,
DROPPING TO IFR BY 11Z. IFR/LOW MVFR THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR SAT NGT INTO MON MORN...WITH PERHAPS
BRIEF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN SN SHWRS SUN MORN OVR SPCLY NRN TAF SITES
WITH A COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS WILL BE MON
AFTN AND ERLY EVE MSLY ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES WITH ANY LGT SN AND
AGAIN WED AFTN WITH LGT SN OR MIXED PRECIP.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BUILDING ON ITS
BACKSIDE. GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
TO SCA CONDITIONS SAT EVE...WITH SCA CONDITIONS MSLY CONTG THRU
SUN AND SUN EVE AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BLO SCA THRESHOLDS
BY MON AND CONT THRU WED. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST
WV HTS THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS MERIT WATCHING INTO TONIGHT.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT ACROSS THE HSA. ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WATERWAYS SUCH AS THE KINGSBURY
STREAM, PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS. A BATCH OF RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT WILL ADD TO RUNOFF
AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RISES. ATTM, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/VJN
HYDROLOGY...VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
311 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PER
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...OPTED TO KEEP POPS
HIGH. THERE IS A BIT OF CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE
IT HERE BEFORE IT IS FILLED IN WITH MORE CONVECTION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN THE WIND AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30MPH TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI RES DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING TOWARD
THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
QPF WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND RIDES
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER JET MAXIMA SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM AND STALL. LIKEWISE...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RIBBON OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH PWATS FEEDING UP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY`S FIRST PUSH INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
PULLS EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT LINGERS IN OR NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE AREA...A COUPLE MORE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS A
RESULT.
THE NEXT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONE WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIKELY TO RUN UP
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST PUSH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH DEEPER DYNAMICAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT RAIN
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS WELL.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY ABRUPT LAYER TEMPERATURE
FALLS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DEFORMATION LIFT REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAST SURFACE WAVE...AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
TO STILL WORK WITH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD...HOWEVER IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ABRUPT ENDING TO THE
WARM AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PRECEDE IT.
COLDER AND QUICKLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
WARMER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE
THE BULK OF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...OPTED TO CARRY THESE AS TEMPO
GROUPS AND AMEND AS NEEDED FOR THUNDER WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY PRESENT.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH A MENTION AT EVERY TAF LOCATION
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TAF SITES BY MORNING AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WITH THE NEXT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1250 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
HOLD STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA DESPITE MOVING INTO VERY
DRY AIR PER THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN...TO
ABOUT .20 INCH WITH THIS INITIAL LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REMAIN WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE HIGH 60`S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA...WETBULBING FROM PRECIP WILL DROP EVERYONE BACK
INTO THE 50`S. THERE IS A BIT OF CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT IS FILLED IN WITH MORE
CONVECTION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH FURTHER FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR
30MPH POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS TAP INTO THESE HIGHER WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING
TOWARD THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT
WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF PIT AGAIN IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY PRECIP...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENDS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...MAINLY DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL
SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE QPF NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF.
AFTER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE LATER SATURDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS SATURDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE ADDED VCTS
TO ZZV AND WILL FURTHER AMEND AS NEEDED IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO TIMING WAS MAINTAINED
OFF OF GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PORTS WHERE A THUNDERSTORM PASSES AND GENERAL VFR IS
MAINTAINED UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR UNTIL BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND WILL BE REINTRODUCED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND
PROBABLY EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ENCROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
932 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS EARLY ON
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACHES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS LINE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE BASED ON THE SURFACE OBS AND
SOUNDING...SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH RAINFALL INITIALLY.
ALSO...ADJUSTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50`S.
PREVIOUS...THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WARM
ADVECTION AND WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT...AND CONTINUED
INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY FROM W-E. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...BUT DID MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY W OF PIT.
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
WITH A QUICK ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE LATEST SREF
AND LAMP NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
STALLING OUT FROM SW OH INTO SOUTHERN PA. CONTINUED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS SHOWALTER INDICIES DROP BELOW ZERO WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET.
A SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF PIT AGAIN IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY PRECIP...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENDS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...MAINLY DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL
SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE QPF NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF.
AFTER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE LATER SATURDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS SATURDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE ADDED VCTS
TO ZZV AND WILL FURTHER AMEND AS NEEDED IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO TIMING WAS MAINTAINED
OFF OF GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PORTS WHERE A THUNDERSTORM PASSES AND GENERAL VFR IS
MAINTAINED UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR UNTIL BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND WILL BE REINTRODUCED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND
PROBABLY EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ENCROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A
NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PCT) WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL
IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
PER PAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER WI WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 250-300
MB JET MAX E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/NAM MODEL BLEND AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SCNTRL UPPER MI. HAVE DECIDED TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA RANGING FROM LESS THAN .10
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TO NEAR .20 INCH AT KMNM. GIVEN
NEAR 10 TO 1 SLR/S EXPECTED COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS JUST INLAND
FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI AND OVER THE FAR EAST.
MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE NRN LAKES MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MOST OF THE MODELS ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MON AS A CONFLUENT FLOW INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE
DOMINANT SFC RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES. ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF
WILL BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MI LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN CWA.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM ITS
PREV COUPLE OF RUNS. AFTER SHOWING STRONGER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON INTO TUE...IT THEN EJECTS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS TROF NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE WED INTO THU. IN TURN...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI THAN PREV RUNS. THIS
SOLN BRINGS AN AREA OF WAA PCPN INTO UPPER MI MAINLY WED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THU. ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PCPN COULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE IF MODEL TRENDS WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A WETTER FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS BOTH THE GFS
AND GEM-NH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS SHOWING A SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS AT KIWD AND KCMX...WILL BE MAIN STORY
INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR LOW CLOUDS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM THOUGH AND THESE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C BY 12Z/FRI. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES...THE FCST MAINTAINS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EARLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST LOCATIONS FAVROED BY NNW FLOW.
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER LINGERING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIMIT ANY LES POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN EXPECT FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ABOUT
25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN A NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL IT
COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.
THE 12Z/01 AND 00Z/02 ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROMINENT SFC-850 MB WARM
FRONT OVER WI DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIV INCREASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET E OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PCPN FARTHER
SOUTH.
MON-WED...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE 00Z/02 ECMWF STILL SHOWS
CONFLUENT FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES ON MON
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/01 RUN...BUT BEGINS TO TREND FARTHER NORTH WITH
PLAINS SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT BRINGING PCPN INTO THE
AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM-NH CONTINUE TO BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW
AND ASSOC WARM FRONT AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH...SPREADING SNOW INTO
UPPER MI MON. MODELS CONSENSUS FAVORS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE
UPPER MI MON AND ESPECAILLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE GREATEST
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECTED DRIER WEATHER BY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS AT KIWD AND KCMX...WILL BE MAIN STORY
INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR LOW CLOUDS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM THOUGH AND THESE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
THUNDER MAY BE DWINDLING. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE TOUCHED
OFF A FEW TSTMS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT LATEST TSTM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF A FEW RUMBLES SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
THROUGH 21Z WHERE NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE H8-H5 THETA-E
LAPSE RATES EXIST. DESPITE THE LIMITED THUNDER THREAT... OVERALL
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO BLO 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
THUNDER MAY BE DWINDLING. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE TOUCHED
OFF A FEW TSTMS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT LATEST TSTM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF A FEW RUMBLES SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
THROUGH 21Z WHERE NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE H8-H5 THETA-E
LAPSE RATES EXIST. DESPITE THE LIMITED THUNDER THREAT... OVERALL
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED
IN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BEGINNING
AROIUND DAYBREAK FOR KMKG. AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH MI DURING
THE DAY ON THU...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THE IFR WILL LAST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED
IN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BEGINNING
AROIUND DAYBREAK FOR KMKG. AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH MI DURING
THE DAY ON THU...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THE IFR WILL LAST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MANN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
092.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1022 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
THE AREA CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NMM/ARW HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THIS MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL AND ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER SE TX MOVING NE TOWARD THE AREA
WITH A RATHER EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THIS WAVE IS MOST CONCENTRATED ABOVE 305K THETA
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SW
SECTIONS. MAJORITY OF THIS HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND WITH
WARM/DRY INVERSION LAYER BELOW.
AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST...EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING SERVING TO TEMPORARILY WASH AWAY THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...TAPERING OFF FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AS THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WITH 120 KNOT H3 JET WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A RATHER POTENT WAVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY DAYS END. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER
OK OVERNIGHT AND RACE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING DRAGGING
A FRONT BEHIND.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT IT TO BREAK DOWN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE
WARM LAYER AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS BEST OVER N MS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXCEED 50 KNOTS...7-7.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES/25-30 VERTICAL
TOTALS...AND DIURNALLY OPTIMIZED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL
EXIST. SEVERE MODE STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AS LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE SO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE FAR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST IT GETS WITH TIME
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING./26/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY BUT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OZARKS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING
HELPING TO BRING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO OUR CWA. PWS
WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN FROM GREATER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY NOON
SATURDAY. THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN WEAK RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING TO MOISTEN OUR AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES BY NOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY MORNING LOWER 60
DEGREE DEW POINTS AND INCH AND A HALF PWS WILL BE BACK OVER OUR CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THE
RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL RUN
ACCUMULATIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK INTO MVRF/IFR RANGE
AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING AGAIN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 65 83 48 / 24 10 35 72
MERIDIAN 81 61 82 46 / 20 14 23 64
VICKSBURG 83 66 81 47 / 23 11 43 71
HATTIESBURG 83 63 83 56 / 18 8 20 44
NATCHEZ 84 67 83 48 / 19 10 33 62
GREENVILLE 80 65 77 44 / 27 18 64 48
GREENWOOD 81 66 79 44 / 33 20 58 60
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions initially, though cloud cover will begin to creep in
as the evening progresses. A wave of activity will push through
overnight, with mostly light rain expected, though nearby convective
activity to the south may lead to some isolated thunderstorms.
Expecting to see MVFR cigs by early Friday morning. Precip will exit the
area early Friday afternoon, though strong backing winds with gusts up
to 25 kts to 30 kts will persist through the remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Generally VFR conditions through this evening. South of Kansas City, scattered
late afternoon/early evening convection expected along/just north of
a stalled front from west central through central MO. Later tonight
areas of rain expected to form over KS and spread across most of the
region towards sunrise and continue through the morning. Initially
VFR ceilings but after several hours of rain should see MVFR ceilings
form as winds ramp up from the north and become quite gusty.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Tonight - Thursday:
In the very near term an area of convection tied to a pesky MCV over
southwestern MO is expected to track northeast and graze the far
southeast CWA through early evening. Have increased PoPs over this
region to account for this.
Attention then turns back to the west and northwest and focuses on
two areas...the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western
KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible
satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts
baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture taking its time to arrive.
Latest NAM/RAP suggest CIN may not be eroded till closer to 00Z.
Still expect a line of convection to form this evening with the
front sliding east-southeast overnight. This activity expected to
reach far northwest MO towards midnight and then continue across
northern MO. Second area being watched is the KS accas and 12z NAM
defined a h7 shortwave/vorticity max that will move out of CO this
evening. Last several runs of the convective allowing HRRR generates
an expanding area of elevated convection which tracks east
overnight, crossing the KS/MO border after midnight. 18z NAM qpf
hints at this convection but delays the arrival till after 09z. Will
side towards the HRRR for now.
While the severe threat will be greatly muted due to its arrival
time and minimal instability some generous qpf is possible over our
northern and western counties. The latter due to the southerly low
level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which
could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
Convection likely to exit the CWA quickly from west to east
Thursday morning. However, model consensus indicates the front will
stall just south of the CWA, close enough that low chance afternoon
PoPs necessary across the far southern counties to account for
potential late afternoon redevelopment.
Thursday night - Friday night:
The aforementioned stalled front will likely remain just south of
the CWA during this period. However, post frontal stratiform or weak
elevated convective rains are likely north of the boundary Thursday
night into Friday morning. An upper level trough is progged to shift
eastward within a pseudo westerly flow with pieces of energy
ejecting ahead of it through the Central Plains. This should allow
for some isentropically induced rain to form and affect most of the
CWA. The rain chances will end by Friday afternoon with the passage
of the trough axis. Temperatures will be on the cool side and hover
in the 50s all day.
Clearing skies, light winds and cool high pressure will probably
send Sat morning lows to freezing or below.....with a good chance
for a frost.
Saturday - Sunday:
Should be a rather benign weekend with weak ridging aloft
translating eastward and surface pressure falls across the plains
generating a southerly breeze. Should be a very pleasant weekend
with above average temperatures.
Sunday night - Wednesday:
Looks like an unsettled pattern. Southwesterly flow sets up with the
passage of the upper ridge allowing for increasing moist warm air
advection. Considerable model uncertainty on PoPs and timing of the
next cold front. GFS is much faster and brings a cold front through
Monday night in response to a fast moving shortwave coming out of
the desert southwest on Monday whereas the 12z ECMWF shows no sign
of this wave...maybe A poor reflection by 12z Tuesday. In any event,
there is the potential for a couple pieces of weak energy to be
embedded within the southwesterly flow and give us a chance for some
convection. Temperatures are likely to remain above average for the
first part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Line of storms approaching far northwest Missouri will weaken a bit
once it reaches the KC area by 09Z, and it`s unlikely any terminal
would experience damaging hail or winds greater than 40 kts once
storms arrive. Improving conditions expected after sunrise with
perhaps some lingering MVFR clouds, otherwise quiet flying conditions
for Thursday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SEVERE WATCH 15 WAS ISSUED EARLIER VALID UNTIL 06Z. STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. BELIEVE THIS MAY TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.
FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.
DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED KOFK WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THERE FOR AN HOUR OUR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR AT KLNK/KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FOR THE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... DEWPOINTS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE... HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE RATHER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS... UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMANATING FROM DISSIPATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE SPC PAGE SHOWING SOME MUCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS EXPECTED
IT WOULD BE GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A
BAND OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE LATEST (GENERALLY EXITING IN A NW TO SE FASHION).
LOWS TONIGHT... DRIVEN BY CAA... WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE MID 60S SE (WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL NEAR 12Z... SE
THAT IS).
SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY... WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... TO NEAR 70 SE. GIVEN THE
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE... WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATED IN THE
NORTHERN FROZEN NORTHERN LATITUDES... IT IS COLD AND DRY. WINDS WILL
DIE OFF BY SUNSET ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES... LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 30-35... WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE A HARD FREEZE LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED JUST A WEEK AGO...
(MARCH 29)... BUT READINGS BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
APPEAR LIKELY AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
STARTS FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN ON SUNDAY MORNING (APRIL
5). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS OF 65-70.
A RAPID MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE... THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS IN
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO ONE IN
WHICH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN READINGS MAY
VERY WELL STAY 60+ OR EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEARS NORMALS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS (LIGHT) CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT... AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS... RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE
BIGGEST NEWS WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREATS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL
NC). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN POP AND EVEN THUNDER
CHANCES BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF SWLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KTS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN EQUALLY STRONG NWLY GUSTS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE TRACE OR NIL ON AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. WITH THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALREADY DRY AND FIRES
REPORTED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NC THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS... IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS OF 30-35 ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME 15-20
PERCENT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 1000 AM
AND 800 PM SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/RAH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST AND OFF THE COAST. BESIDES DIURNAL EFFECTS
WHICH TYPICALLY LEAD TO SUBSIDING SURFACE WINDS...THERE ARE NO
SYNOPTIC EFFECTS THAT WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE WINDS WOULD DECREASE.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW HOURS (09Z-11Z) OF WEAK WIND SPEEDS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND I`LL TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THIS REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. DISCUSSION
FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD STRONGLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH P/W VALUES AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH...SO EXPECT A CLEAR AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHER
CLOUDS TO OUR W AND NW ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY ERODE AS THEY MOVE
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. LOWS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
HEELS OF A WEAK RIDGE. ANY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE ENTERING OUR CWA. BEYOND THIS...A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER.
THIS LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES TACKED ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BALMY WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE I HAVE DELAYED POPS FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT REPRESENT THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM. ANY WET WEATHER SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED OFF THE COAST THEREAFTER. CLOUD COVER WILL SIMILARLY MAKE
A QUICK EXIT THANKS TO LOW AMPLITUDE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
DEEP LAYER DRYING. FOLLOWING THE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO BUT RETURN FLOW KICKING IN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING BACK SEASONABLE TEMPS, ANY WARM ADVECTION AIDED AT
NIGHT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS USUAL STARTS TO
DEPICT STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING
DRY THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AND POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20
PERCENT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT RAMP
UP RAIN CHANCES APPRECIABLY AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNING THE GULF AND BAHAMAS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME AOB 5
KTS. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...BECOMING SCT/BKN INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
NEARSHORE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET GIVEN THE SOLIDLY ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE
GUSTING TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS OVER 6 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM
FOLLOWS...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE ENE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT THIS EVE WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER FRINGES WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT TOWARD MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A RETURN FLOW AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING EASTERLY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY. BY MIDDAY...A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY VEER TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL INCREASING FROM AROUND TEN KNOTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET THURSDAY TO 4-6 FEET LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AGITATED
WINDS AND SEAS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY MORNING COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE AN ABATING TREND IN BOTH. THINGS
REALLY COLLAPSE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVERHEAD. THEN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SLATED FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT MAY ADD A FOOT IN
PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20NM
FORECAST ZONES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS NOW
NW ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING DEPTH IS MORE SHALLOW ALONG WITH
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 7PM...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NO MORE RETURNS AS THE
FORCING HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED...AND REMOVED ANY LINGERING
POPS FOR THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...AND MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S.
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 7PM SINCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE DECREASING AND HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RAP TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RAP AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
WINDS NOW NW AT ALL TAF SITES...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RUC TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RUC AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ALSO SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WHERE PRECIP WAS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. BRISK WEST WINDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
GFK AROUND 20Z TO 21Z AND FAR AROUND 22Z TO 23Z. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR LARGE CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE MID 20S OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE REPLACED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 40 MPH BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. SHIFTING WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY BURNS OR FIRES CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST METARS INDICATING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE I 94 CORRIDOR WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE INTL BORDER...RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WHILE UPSTREAM WINDS NEAR WINNIPEG
ARE IN CRITERIA...THOSE HIGHER WINDS ARE COMING OFF OF THE LAKES
AND WINDS TO THE SOUTH ARE UNDER CRITERIA. THINKING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS
IS. ALL PRECIP IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH RAPIDLY
DROPPING TEMPS...ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SNOW. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPS HAD RISEN INTO THE MID
40S...EXPECT THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT DESPITE REPORTS OF
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBYS FOR VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ONLY
CHANGE TO FCST IS TO CHANGE P TYPE IN MN TO ALL SNOW AFT 21Z...AND
ALL SNOW IN ND EFFECTIVE THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...BETWEEN
WINNIPEG AND THE INTL BORDER. WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AND INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CNTRL ND. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN ZONES BY NOONTIME...AND ONLY IMPACT
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST MIXING AND STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MID AFTN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
NOONTIME TO 7 PM CDT.
ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS AS CURRENT ECHOES WEST OF
THE CWA AND MOST OF CWA IS CLEAR...WITH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING OVER
NORTHEAST ND. USED RUC AS GUIDANCE AND DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WINDS AND TEMPS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH INVERSION BREAK AROUND 15Z AND ARE REFLECTED IN THE
FCST. ALSO EXPECTING WINDS TO HOVER NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
SW ZONES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPS SO
FAR LOOKING OKAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWN THRU AROUND 850MB TO
ALLOW MIXING OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE FAR SRN ZONES...BUT MARGINALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS SO WILL HOLD ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE
OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER WAVE FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THEN
COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BRING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIP WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE. THINK THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GEM TRACKS A STRONG SFC
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND DUMPS OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALL THE WAY
NORTH OF FARGO...BUT THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THEIR MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS HIGH WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THINK
WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY THAT POINT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ALSO SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WHERE PRECIP WAS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. BRISK WEST WINDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
GFK AROUND 20Z TO 21Z AND FAR AROUND 22Z TO 23Z. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 20
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST AND DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND WITH VERY DRY FUELS...FIRES
COULD SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE BORDERLINE
CATEGORY. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE COLD FRONT COMES IN A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE SOME RH RECOVERY...BUT FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY DRY AND WINDY SO WILL GO WITH THE RED
FLAG AND LATER SHIFTS CAN CANCEL EARLY IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1038 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...BETWEEN
WINNIPEG AND THE INTL BORDER. WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AND INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CNTRL ND. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN ZONES BY NOONTIME...AND ONLY IMPACT
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST MIXING AND STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MID AFTN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
NOONTIME TO 7 PM CDT.
ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS AS CURRENT ECHOES WEST OF
THE CWA AND MOST OF CWA IS CLEAR...WITH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING OVER
NORTHEAST ND. USED RUC AS GUIDANCE AND DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WINDS AND TEMPS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH INVERSION BREAK AROUND 15Z AND ARE REFLECTED IN THE
FCST. ALSO EXPECTING WINDS TO HOVER NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
SW ZONES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPS SO
FAR LOOKING OKAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWN THRU AROUND 850MB TO
ALLOW MIXING OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE FAR SRN ZONES...BUT MARGINALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS SO WILL HOLD ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE
OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER WAVE FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THEN
COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BRING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIP WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE. THINK THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GEM TRACKS A STRONG SFC
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND DUMPS OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALL THE WAY
NORTH OF FARGO...BUT THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THEIR MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS HIGH WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THINK
WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY THAT POINT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW CORNER OF ND
SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS...AND EXPECT THEM TO CROSS THE NRN PART OF
THE FA. OTHERWISE...WINDS IN GRADIENT LEVEL MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 20
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST AND DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND WITH VERY DRY FUELS...FIRES
COULD SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE BORDERLINE
CATEGORY. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE COLD FRONT COMES IN A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE SOME RH RECOVERY...BUT FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY DRY AND WINDY SO WILL GO WITH THE RED
FLAG AND LATER SHIFTS CAN CANCEL EARLY IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS
FIRE WEATHER...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. WITH A VERY DRY
GROUND AND ATMOSPHERE...RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP FAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE ARE A FEW MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE
OR TWO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ADD A
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW VFR CIGS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
647 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL AXIS OF STORMS MOVING THRU ILN/S SRN FA. IN WAKE OF THIS
AXIS OF STORMS SEVERE THREAT HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED.
HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS SRN INDIANA WHERE BLYR CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SVR CHANCES. CAN NOT RULE OUT PSBL ISOLD
SVR OVER OUR SW COUNTIES BUT THIS WINDOW DIMINISHES BY LATE
EVENING WITH INSTBY BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
FLOOD SIGNAL ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB GIVEN CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
AND THEREFORE THE TIMING OF FUTURE CONVECTION AND WHEN IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF STIES HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. WARM...MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WHICH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN GREAT INSTABILITY AND PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE PLACED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAF SITES
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SATURATED AIRMASS AND NIGHT TIME COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
FOR FRIDAY...MORE DIGGING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PERTURB A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR.
VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
203 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING REPORTED AS WELL. BEHIND
THIS LINE THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AS WELL. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
ALOFT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
IT WILL GET BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS SOME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO. LOCAL SCHEMES SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH 40 MPH
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE LAST BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
REACHING THE TOLEDO AREA BY 22Z AND ERI TOWARDS 00Z. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WITH
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BUT IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NON VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1010 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING REPORTED AS WELL. BEHIND
THIS LINE THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AS WELL. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
ALOFT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
IT WILL GET BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS SOME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO. LOCAL SCHEMES SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH 40 MPH
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT
NOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING. BUT
UNTIL WINDS MIX DOWN COULD SEE SOME LLWS AS 2K FT WINDS ARE FROM
THE SSW AT 40-45 KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS WHICH WERE TOO LOW. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN INDIANA
SO LEFT IN THE MORNING POPS WEST.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT
NOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING. BUT
UNTIL WINDS MIX DOWN COULD SEE SOME LLWS AS 2K FT WINDS ARE FROM
THE SSW AT 40-45 KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
621 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS WHICH WERE TOO LOW. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN INDIANA
SO LEFT IN THE MORNING POPS WEST.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FIRST FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SW INTO
THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THE CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE
WNW AND THE CIRRUS TO THE SW ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA.
DUE TO COLLABORATION WILL ONLY ALLOW SKY COVER TO RAMP UP TO 30 TO
40% IN THE SE AND EAST.
HRRR AND RUC STILL HOLDING OFF PRECIP NEARING THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
12Z SO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BY 06Z THEN TEMPS MAY START TO DRIFT UP A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH 12Z AS MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH START TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A WARM AND PROBABLY BUSY DAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AREAS EAST OF I-71 SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. MU CAPES GET TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL HEAR THUNDER FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NEVER GET
OUT OF THE PRECIP FRIDAY BUT A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES FOR TOMORROW. THINK
THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS PART OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
PUT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A MIXED WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS COLD FRONT SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT...BUT RETURN AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE AND SRN TIER OF
NC...AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER. THE
FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
ENCROACHING SFC BASED INSTABILITY FARTHER E AND SE. THE SECOND ROUND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY TRANSIT THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO FOCUS ON THESE TWO ROUNDS. OTHERWISE...INSITU DAMMING
REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER FOOTHILLS SECTIONS...BUT WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAD. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY
TSRA THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND QUITE THE
DIFFERENCE FROM THOSE TODAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW SO
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON MIXING ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATE FRIDAY WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
LATE IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE FRONT REMAINS
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWFA AROUND 00Z SAT...BUT THE HIGH RES
MODELS AND THE NAM/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING. THE ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM SHUD BE UNSTABLE ENUF WITH PLENTY OF
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACRS THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
TN/NC BORDER...INSTBY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED...AND OVERALL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
KEEP A LINE OF STORMS RIGHT UP TO THE NC BORDER. SO A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT ALSO PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL
LIKELY STILL BE RELATIVELY CAPPED...SO LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY IS ALMOST NIL BY
06Z SAT AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO ENTER THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO...THE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT
AT THIS POINT. SO AM KEEPING THE 40-60% POP FOR THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE TSTM COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH IN THE MTNS. THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
MTNS MAY GET A HALF INCH OR MORE. TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAA WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE TN LINE TO
BRING TEMPS INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT
5000 FT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHUD DRY OUT...AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
50S IN THE MTNS AND 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING WIND GUST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AS
NWLY CAA FLOW CONTINUES...ESP IN THE MTNS. THIS ON TOP OF LOW RH MAY
ELEVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESP IF THE CURRENT QPF IS OVERDONE.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHUD BE CHILLY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
NC...AND MID-UPR 30S ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. SO EXPECT SOME
FREEZING TEMPS...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND PATCHY FROST AND
PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FROST ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT. A DEEPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THU
AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MON AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. THIS FLOW CONTINUES THRU
TUE KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE VIRGINIAS ON WED...BUT THE MOIST SLY
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWFA...WITH CONTINUED CHC OF CONVECTION. THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWFA ON THU
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A WEAK CAD. PRECIP CHC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE LIFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST SLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS MON RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED...THEN
BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD...AND A NARROW TEMPO TSRA
WINDOW APPEARS PRUDENT STARTING AT 22Z FOR THE LATEST UPDATE. VFR
CIGS IN THE SRLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY IFR
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER 13Z
OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...THE FIRST ROUND OF LATE DAY CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE FOOTHILL TAFS...WITH MAINLY VCSH LINGERING UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR FEATURES A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
EAST FROM WRN GA AND CROSSING THE SC SITES MID EVENING. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO TSRA 00Z TO 03Z.
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
AND...WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A
COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT
AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT MED 75% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP MED 68% MED 68% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 89% MED 68% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 62% MED 63% MED 76% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...HG/TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT...BUT RETURN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...INSITU DAMMING HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS STAYING LOWER THAN FORECAST
BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA NOW WITH A CONTINUED DAMPING TREND EXPECTED AS IT
PUSHES EAST. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
STARTED TO CREEP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE PATCHY SUNSHINE AND WITH IT
HAS COME AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SBCAPES...SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 100-250 J/KG SBCAPE CREEPING INTO THOSE EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH RAP EXTRAPOLATION SHOWING RAPID INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL FINGER OF STABILITY REMAINING
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 22Z...RE-STABILIZING
THEREAFTER. NOT SURE I AM COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE EXTENT OF
>500J/KG SBCAPE BUT OVERALL TRENDS DO SEEM REASONABLE. ALREADY
SEEING SOME CONVECTION FIRE IN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA SO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KT /NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT FOR 0-6KM
SHEAR/ WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT THAT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES.
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES SO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND QUITE THE
DIFFERENCE FROM THOSE TODAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW SO
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON MIXING ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATE FRIDAY WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
LATE IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE FRONT REMAINS
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWFA AROUND 00Z SAT...BUT THE HIGH RES
MODELS AND THE NAM/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING. THE ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM SHUD BE UNSTABLE ENUF WITH PLENTY OF
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACRS THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
TN/NC BORDER...INSTBY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED...AND OVERALL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
KEEP A LINE OF STORMS RIGHT UP TO THE NC BORDER. SO A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT ALSO PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL
LIKELY STILL BE RELATIVELY CAPPED...SO LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY IS ALMOST NIL BY
06Z SAT AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO ENTER THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO...THE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT
AT THIS POINT. SO AM KEEPING THE 40-60% POP FOR THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE TSTM COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH IN THE MTNS. THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
MTNS MAY GET A HALF INCH OR MORE. TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAA WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE TN LINE TO
BRING TEMPS INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT
5000 FT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHUD DRY OUT...AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
50S IN THE MTNS AND 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING WIND GUST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AS
NWLY CAA FLOW CONTINUES...ESP IN THE MTNS. THIS ON TOP OF LOW RH MAY
ELEVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESP IF THE CURRENT QPF IS OVERDONE.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHUD BE CHILLY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
NC...AND MID-UPR 30S ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. SO EXPECT SOME
FREEZING TEMPS...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND PATCHY FROST AND
PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FROST ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT. A DEEPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THU
AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MON AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. THIS FLOW CONTINUES THRU
TUE KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE VIRGINIAS ON WED...BUT THE MOIST SLY
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWFA...WITH CONTINUED CHC OF CONVECTION. THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWFA ON THU
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A WEAK CAD. PRECIP CHC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE LIFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST SLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS MON RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED...THEN
BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR PREVAILS AT THE AIRPORT BUT WITH MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ON THE DOORSTEP. MVFR MIGHT BE IN AND OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
DO EXPECT OVERALL MVFR CIGS TO PUSH IN AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT VCSH TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER 00Z AND HAVE BROUGHT IN BRIEF LOW
VFR CIGS AGAIN AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER
13Z OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH LINES AVAILABLE TO DESCRIBE THIS IN THE TAF.
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SIMILAR IN GENERAL TRENDS TO CLT WITH VCSH
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE SC WARRANTS VCTS AT AND AND MIGHT NEED TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR GMU/GSP. UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT AND...WHERE CIGS COULD
DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN
OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 93% MED 71% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 82% MED 74% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 85%
KGMU MED 71% MED 72% HIGH 84% HIGH 91%
KAND MED 76% MED 71% MED 77% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDINESS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANTICIPATED BUT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW FORECAST
TRENDS AS A RESULT...SO HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BUT
AFTERNOON TREND WITH POPS AND CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST. RAP CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG SBCAPE INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH WEAK SHEAR PREVIOUS THINKING FOR EVENING CONVECTION
REMAINS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO FORCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL
EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE
OF THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE WILDCARD IN THE
FCST IS THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD INTERSECT AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACRS N/NE GEORGIA AND HELP TO TRIGGER SOME DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH
THE MODELS CARRY EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND THE SRN PIEDMONT OF
NC INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE FCST TO THE LOWER END
OF THE CHC RANGE OUT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
FOR TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE S OR SW...AND WILL ALSO PUSH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AWAY TO THE NE. THAT SHOULD SLOWLY ELIMINATE OUR
PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A LULL BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF LEAVING QUASI ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT...ONE NORTHERN STREAM...AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE
FCST TO PHASE AS THEY ENTER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY...AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED PHASING HAPPENS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL ADVECT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHERE LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPWARDS OF
1200-1500J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH A 40-50KT LLJ PROVIDING AMPLE
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS...DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A POCKET
OF RELATIVELY DRIER GULF AIR ADVECTS IN EARLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT. THAT SAID...AS THE LLJ ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROF...MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST NEARLY 30KTS
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WITH SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THE
SAME LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NC HIGH
COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST GA. ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN EXPECTING AN
EVEN MORE STABLE...LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BE IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FROPA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BAND OF
LLV MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...FALLING THICKNESSES COULD YIELD A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL NOT YIELD ANY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF NORTHWEST WINDS
AID DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY
LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...THUS WILL MENTION FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WHILE ALSO ADDING WORDING FOR FROST
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWS FALL TO NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST PATCHY/WIDESPREAD FROST AND OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MODELS FAVOR
SAID HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRY...YET
COOL EASTER HOLIDAY IN STORE. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP
OFFSHORE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK YIELDING INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL BROAD WAA REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HIGHLIGHTED BY POTENTIAL DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INDUCED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST REGARDING DIURNAL CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE BROAD
UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF BY MIDWEEK EFFECTIVELY HELPING
TO TAMP DOWN CONVECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
FAVOR POSSIBLE CAD EXTENSION FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX...ALL
WARRANTING CONTINUED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF ANY POSSIBLE UPGLIDE
REGIME ESTABLISHMENT ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AMONGST WAA REGIME LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR PREVAILS AT THE AIRPORT BUT WITH MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ON THE DOORSTEP. MVFR MIGHT BE IN AND OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
DO EXPECT OVERALL MVFR CIGS TO PUSH IN AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT VCSH TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER 00Z AND HAVE BROUGHT IN BRIEF LOW
VFR CIGS AGAIN AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER
13Z OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH LINES AVAILABLE TO DESCRIBE THIS IN THE TAF.
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SIMILAR IN GENERAL TRENDS TO CLT WITH VCSH
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE SC WARRANTS VCTS AT AND AND MIGHT NEED TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR GMU/GSP. UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT AND...WHERE CIGS COULD
DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN
OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 93% MED 71% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 82% MED 74% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 85%
KGMU MED 71% MED 72% HIGH 84% HIGH 91%
KAND MED 76% MED 71% MED 77% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/RWH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDINESS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANTICIPATED BUT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW FORECAST
TRENDS AS A RESULT...SO HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BUT
AFTERNOON TREND WITH POPS AND CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST. RAP CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG SBCAPE INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH WEAK SHEAR PREVIOUS THINKING FOR EVENING CONVECTION
REMAINS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO FORCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL
EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE
OF THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE WILDCARD IN THE
FCST IS THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD INTERSECT AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACRS N/NE GEORGIA AND HELP TO TRIGGER SOME DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH
THE MODELS CARRY EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND THE SRN PIEDMONT OF
NC INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE FCST TO THE LOWER END
OF THE CHC RANGE OUT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
FOR TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE S OR SW...AND WILL ALSO PUSH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AWAY TO THE NE. THAT SHOULD SLOWLY ELIMINATE OUR
PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A LULL BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF LEAVING QUASI ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT...ONE NORTHERN STREAM...AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE
FCST TO PHASE AS THEY ENTER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY...AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED PHASING HAPPENS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL ADVECT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHERE LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPWARDS OF
1200-1500J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH A 40-50KT LLJ PROVIDING AMPLE
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS...DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A POCKET
OF RELATIVELY DRIER GULF AIR ADVECTS IN EARLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT. THAT SAID...AS THE LLJ ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROF...MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST NEARLY 30KTS
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WITH SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THE
SAME LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NC HIGH
COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST GA. ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN EXPECTING AN
EVEN MORE STABLE...LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BE IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FROPA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BAND OF
LLV MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...FALLING THICKNESSES COULD YIELD A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL NOT YIELD ANY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF NORTHWEST WINDS
AID DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY
LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...THUS WILL MENTION FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WHILE ALSO ADDING WORDING FOR FROST
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWS FALL TO NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST PATCHY/WIDESPREAD FROST AND OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MODELS FAVOR
SAID HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRY...YET
COOL EASTER HOLIDAY IN STORE. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP
OFFSHORE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK YIELDING INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL BROAD WAA REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HIGHLIGHTED BY POTENTIAL DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INDUCED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST REGARDING DIURNAL CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE BROAD
UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF BY MIDWEEK EFFECTIVELY HELPING
TO TAMP DOWN CONVECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
FAVOR POSSIBLE CAD EXTENSION FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX...ALL
WARRANTING CONTINUED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF ANY POSSIBLE UPGLIDE
REGIME ESTABLISHMENT ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AMONGST WAA REGIME LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...LOW VFR CONTINUES FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WITH VCSH OR PERHAPS -DZ DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 18Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...VFR...FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DEPICTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE STRENGTHENING MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER MECHANICAL
LIFT NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MID MORNING. OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT...THE CLOUD BASE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 050-060. THE
BETTER PLUME OF LOW MOISTURE MOVES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY
ALLOW AN MVFR CEILING TO FORM BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
GUIDANCE FROM THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS IS SEEN. AFTER
SUNSET...THE LAMP GUIDANCE GROWS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AN IFR
CEILING SPREADING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THAT OUT FOR
NOW...AS IT MAY DEPEND ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SHOULD IMPACT KAVL AND THE UPSTATE SC TAFS AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE
DEEPENS THRU MID MORNING. AT THAT POINT...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...
PARTICULARLY THE LAMP...DEVELOPS AN IFR CEILING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND THEN FANS IT OUT ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NC
FOOTHILLS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN IFR CEILING IN THE NEW
TAFS DURING PEAK HEATING WITHOUT A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND WITHOUT A HIGH PRECIP
PROBABILITY. FEEL THAT MVFR IS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE WARM
APRIL SUN...BUT WILL CONSIDER KEEPING A TEMPO FOR IFR IN LATER
AMENDMENTS. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS WE LOSE HEATING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. STILL A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT KAND AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU AND A PROB30
WAS KEPT THERE...BUT PUSHED BACK TO THE EARLY EVENING PER THE SPC
4KM WRF. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
HAVE HELD OFF WITH THE IFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO SCATTER AND LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 86% MED 69% MED 65% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% MED 73% HIGH 87% MED 75%
KHKY HIGH 87% MED 76% MED 68% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 65% LOW 56% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 82% MED 79% MED 78% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/RWH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM/TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...STILL WAITING FOR LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO MOISTEN
AND DEVELOP CLOUDINESS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. MIGHT HAVE TO START
PUTTING OFF THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FCST OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO
AN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING
00Z NAM AND THE MOST RECENT RAP RUNS DEPICTING IMPROVING MOIST
UPGLIDE IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FT AGL LAYER FROM THE SW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. AS THE WEAK
UPGLIDE AND SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES TOWARD DAYBREAK...ISOLD TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SRN MTNS AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN IN PROFILES THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY
EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SRLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING EASTWARD TO INTERSTATE 77. THE SOLIDIFYING CLOUD DECK
SHOULD KEEP MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE THU AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF IN SITU
SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOIST UPGLIDE...A PHASING SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE PLAINS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY IN SRN SECTIONS MAY PERMIT ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS TO CROSS THE SRN TIER DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DAMPING INTO THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN. FINGER OF STABILITY ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
BEST THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. NOT ENOUGH DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SOAR BACK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS AND BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE FRIDAY LATE EVENING AND NIGHT WHEN
OF COURSE DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD MINIMIZE CAPE POTENTIAL...BUT EVEN
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS DOES BRING A BAND OF SBCAPE BETWEEN 100-
300 J/KG INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. THE CONCERN IS THAT THIS
INSTABILITY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS COLLOCATED WITH 60+KT 0-6KM SHEAR...
AND 30-40KT 0-1KM SHEAR. SHERB VALUES OVERALL REMAIN BELOW 1 BUT
SREF SHERB PLUME FORECASTS FOR THE AREA DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME SREF
MEMBERS CREEPING ABOVE 1. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK OVERNIGHT DID INTRODUCE
MARGINAL RISK INTO THE MOUNTAINS SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION.
ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THAT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS AND EVEN IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ALL POPS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
18Z SATURDAY LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE PRETTY NICE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY/S FRONT...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
LEADING TO A NICE EASTER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT BY THIS POINT HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT QPF VALUES AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...WITH GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST ON MONDAY THAN
THE ECMWF...AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES PUSHES INTO
THE PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BUT AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MIGHT SET UP. GFS WANTS TO KEEP A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
THE MOIST FETCH A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES
AND RESULTING FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THUNDER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOIST SE
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TOWARD DAWN. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER MECHANICAL LIFT NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...THIS MAY INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF A CLOUD
DECK AROUND 050 THAT FORMS A CEILING BY MID/LATE MORNING. THE BETTER
PLUME OF LOW MOISTURE MOVES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY ALLOW AN
MVFR CEILING TO FORM IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WAS PUSHED BACK
TO 20Z ON THE NEW TAF. WIND SHOULD STAY SE THIS MORNING AND THEN S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW UNTIL MORE GUIDANCE FROM THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS IS SEEN. AFTER SUNSET...THE LAMP GUIDANCE GROWS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH AN IFR CEILING SPREADING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE KEPT THAT OUT FOR NOW FOR BREVITY AND WILL EVALUATE IT FOR THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO
FORM THE IFR CEILING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP FROM S TO N ACROSS
THE MTN AND FOOTHILL TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS
WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING AT KAVL AND
THE SC SITES AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS. AT THAT POINT...SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE LAMP...DEVELOPS AN IFR CEILING IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND THEN FANS IT OUT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NC FOOTHILLS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN
IFR CEILING IN THE NEW TAFS DURING PEAK HEATING WITHOUT A FAVORABLE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND WITHOUT A
HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY. FEEL THAT MVFR IS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN
THE WARM APRIL SUN...BUT WILL CONSIDER KEEPING A TEMPO FOR IFR IN
LATER AMENDMENTS. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS WE LOSE HEATING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. STILL A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT KAND AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU AND A PROB30
WAS KEPT THERE.
OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO SCATTER AND LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 74%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 91% MED 77% MED 78%
KAVL HIGH 97% MED 79% MED 66% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 88% HIGH 88%
KGMU HIGH 94% HIGH 90% MED 77% HIGH 81%
KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 81% MED 72% HIGH 80%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON AREA RADARS...WILL ENTER
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 04Z AND EXIT THE SOUTH BY 10Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DEEP MSTR BUT
THE 00Z KCRP SOUNDING DEPICTS A PRETTY STOUT CAP ABV H8 SO CVRG
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SLOWLY INCREASE EVENTUALLY KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. ALL
IN ALL THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE EXISTING SCA PRODUCT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE CIGS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR IT AND BEHIND IT. OVERALL...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THE RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE
STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP IN THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND IMPACT
THAT TERMINAL. IN KLRD...DO HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 04Z WITH TEMPO
THUNDER BEFORE FROPA TIL 08Z (THEN SHOWERS). FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...THINK CAP WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER (OR PROBABILITY TOO
LOW) SO DO HAVE VCSH FOR TIMING OF FROPA...ABOUT 04Z AT KVCT...07Z
AT KALI AND 08Z AT KCRP (BASED ROUGHLY ON HRRR OUTPUT)...PRODUCING
GUSTY NNE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINK CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH TEMPO IFR FOR SHOWERS WITH AND NEAR FROPA
(THINK GFS-MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC OVERALL CONSIDERING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. BEHIND FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AND MVFR WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE MORNING AND IFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
UPGLIDE GETS A BIT BETTER (BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF RAIN BUT BETTER
CHANCE AT KLRD). WINDS DIMINISH MID/LATE MORNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE REGION IS STILL FAIRLY CAPPED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. MODELS
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH IT NEARLY THROUGH THE
AREA BY 09Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...WITH POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUD COVER...RAIN
CHANCES AND THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN 60S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT REACH 60 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH E AND SE FLOW RETURNING.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE BAYS WILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WATERS UNTIL 00Z.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH 25-30KTS OF FLOW ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM 30 IN THE AM TO 20
IN THE PM. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. HIGHS MAINLY BACK
IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHED BY MID WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG DECISIONS WITH
REGARD TO THAT FRONT YET...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 62 68 63 78 / 20 30 30 40 30
VICTORIA 81 58 67 62 79 / 20 30 30 40 30
LAREDO 92 61 62 55 83 / 10 40 50 50 30
ALICE 86 61 67 61 81 / 10 30 40 40 30
ROCKPORT 76 62 67 64 75 / 20 30 30 30 30
COTULLA 88 58 63 56 81 / 10 30 50 50 30
KINGSVILLE 84 62 67 62 81 / 10 30 40 40 30
NAVY CORPUS 76 63 69 65 75 / 20 30 30 40 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
TJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE CIGS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR IT AND BEHIND IT. OVERALL...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THE RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE
STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP IN THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND IMPACT
THAT TERMINAL. IN KLRD...DO HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 04Z WITH TEMPO
THUNDER BEFORE FROPA TIL 08Z (THEN SHOWERS). FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...THINK CAP WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER (OR PROBABILITY TOO
LOW) SO DO HAVE VCSH FOR TIMING OF FROPA...ABOUT 04Z AT KVCT...07Z
AT KALI AND 08Z AT KCRP (BASED ROUGHLY ON HRRR OUTPUT)...PRODUCING
GUSTY NNE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINK CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH TEMPO IFR FOR SHOWERS WITH AND NEAR FROPA
(THINK GFS-MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC OVERALL CONSIDERING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. BEHIND FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AND MVFR WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE MORNING AND IFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
UPGLIDE GETS A BIT BETTER (BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF RAIN BUT BETTER
CHANCE AT KLRD). WINDS DIMINISH MID/LATE MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE REGION IS STILL FAIRLY CAPPED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. MODELS
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH IT NEARLY THROUGH THE
AREA BY 09Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...WITH POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUD COVER...RAIN
CHANCES AND THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN 60S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT REACH 60 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH E AND SE FLOW RETURNING.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE BAYS WILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WATERS UNTIL 00Z.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH 25-30KTS OF FLOW ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM 30 IN THE AM TO 20
IN THE PM. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. HIGHS MAINLY BACK
IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHED BY MID WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG DECISIONS WITH
REGARD TO THAT FRONT YET...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 68 63 78 67 / 30 30 40 30 10
VICTORIA 58 67 62 79 66 / 30 30 40 30 10
LAREDO 61 62 55 83 67 / 40 50 50 30 10
ALICE 61 67 61 81 66 / 30 40 40 30 10
ROCKPORT 62 67 64 75 68 / 30 30 30 30 10
COTULLA 58 63 56 81 65 / 30 50 50 30 10
KINGSVILLE 62 67 62 81 67 / 30 40 40 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 69 65 75 68 / 30 30 40 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS THAT SPRING IS ON THE WAY...JUST A MONTH LATER THAN
NORMAL. THE UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF SPRING WEATHER
AS STRONG DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY...WHEN A COOL FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND GIVES THE BORDERLAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
WINDY DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...OUR MARCH WEATHER HAS BEGUN IN EARLY
APRIL! STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS SET UP WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH. WINDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HRRR SHOWED NICE MESOSCALE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMING LATE THIS MORNING ALONG EASTERN SACS BUT
LATER ABSORBED INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE. THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVER THE SACS...THIS MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
PROBABLY WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY THERE. NONE THE LESS
WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS ARE PRETTY CLOSE.
WINDS DROPPING OFF FRIDAY AS WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND DISRUPTS LEE SIDE TROUGHING. WIND SHIFT MAY ACTUALLY
MOVE INTO CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAIN FRONT WITH COOLING WON`T
MOVE IN TIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL BUT ALSO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS MOVE FRONT OUT
BETWEEN CONT DIVIDE AND ARIZONA BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM 12
SHOWS NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS AREA WITH NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. BELIEVE ISOLD MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. BY MID AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SILVER CITY TO HACHITA.. AREAS
FURTHER EAST STABILIZED OUT POST FRONTALLY...BUT STORM MOTION MAY
WELL PUSH THE CONVERGENCE LINE STORMS EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING
BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL QUICKLY FLUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS DECENT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS. NEXT
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD PATHCAST FOR THE
STORM BUT TIMING IS A BIT OFF REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA A
LITTLE EARLY. STILL WINDY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
MISSING OUT ON STRONGER WINDS. FURTHER CARVING SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY BUT STILL
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT250. STRONG SFC WINDS
STARTING AT 00Z THRU 08Z. WINDS AT KELP WILL MEET AWW CRITERIA FROM
00Z-03Z EXPECT 25023G30KT WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTR 03Z AND DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 12 KTS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM
FOR ALL FIRE ZONES WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS. FRIDAY WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATURDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST TRANSPORTING SOME
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SATURDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD ON FRIDAY AND POOR ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 57 81 50 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 52 78 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 52 79 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 48 76 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 57 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 40 70 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
DEMING 44 78 44 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 43 79 44 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 79 51 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 49 80 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 83 50 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 52 73 43 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
FABENS 53 82 48 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 53 80 47 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 76 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 41 76 40 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
HATCH 46 77 44 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 49 78 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 51 77 47 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 41 64 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 37 65 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 40 65 35 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 36 67 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 43 72 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 41 75 40 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 36 69 37 64 33 / 0 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 41 72 41 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 36 76 37 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 32 74 34 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 72 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 45 79 47 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 79 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 76 45 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ414>416.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE PASSING
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A SUN FILLED
EASTER SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED...GENERALLY WET PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS
NEAR THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING MUCH OF THE WEST ATTM AND
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE PRECIP MERGING AND SLIDING
OUT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LACK OF MUCH
SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD DETER DEEPER CONVECTION ALTHOUGH GIVEN
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ANY BOWS COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR WHICH QUICKLY WEAKENS
THE COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COVERAGE SLIDES
EAST. THUS ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO GOING POPS WITH SOME INCREASE IN
HIGHER CAT/LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST PER CURRENT TRENDS. WILL NEED
TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING UNTIL THE CONVECTION EXITS THE NW
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT THIS POINT.
OTHER ISSUE IS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A QUICK BURST OF STRONG
NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A QUICK CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS DESPITE ONLY A
45-50 KT ALOFT VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IN LINE WITH
LOCAL STUDY GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARNING GUSTS
OVER THE SW AROUND DAYBREAK. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A WIND
ADVISORY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING THE FOOTHILLS FROM
MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTS TO TEMPS GIVEN INITIAL
COOLING BY PRECIP AND THEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOUNTAINS LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 430 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME MODERATE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN SPEED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
85H WINDS...3-5KFT AGL...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ARE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 MPH. MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ASSOCIATED WITH
TONIGHTS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME RESPECTABLE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS. IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT IS WOULD BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. THE CAPE IS LOW...BUT THE WIND SHEAR IS HIGH.
THE MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN
PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM. HIGHEST
QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RANGING FROM A HALF INCH
/0.50/ TO AN INCH /1.00/. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THEY PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SO AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WILL BE LESS ROBUST...AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH THE RETURN OF GOOD
DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE COAST.
GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES EARLY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD...READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 60S UNTIL FROPA. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEY WILL
BEGIN TO TUMBLE...REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A 10 TO 15 DEGREE REBOUND IN
SPITE OF INCREASING SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S EAST OF
THE RIDGE...UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST.
THEN AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO FLAT RIDGING WE WILL GET INTO
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE BEING PUSHED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY AN
ENCROACHING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION IN A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WITH
THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING A LID ON TEMPERATURES AND HOLDING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AS MORE WEAK IMPULSES OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. NOT EXACTLY A RING OF
FIRE SCENARIO BUT WE WILL STAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AFTER SUCCESSIVE
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE MAY START TO RUN INTO HYDRO
ISSUES BUT THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY EXACTLY WHAT REGIONS ARE
AFFECTED BY THE MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN. WESTERN CITIES SUCH AS LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MORE RAIN TONIGHT THAN THE EASTERN
SITES. WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30KTS OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS... MAINLY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY PROMOTING LIGHT WINDS AND VFR.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN ACTIVE STORM
TRACK FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NW WINDS SATURDAY
AND LOW HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DRYNESS OUT EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IF RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT IS ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH WETTING THEN WILL SEE LESS OF A WILDFIRE THREAT BUT IFFY AT
THE MOMENT. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING ANY STATEMENTS OR
HEADLINES TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH QPF...IF ANY...MAKES IT OUT INTO
THE PIEDMONT SECTIONS AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1051 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK STALLS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE VA COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST OUT TO SEA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A CHAOTIC BARRAGE OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF WSW UPPER FLOW EMANATING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION IN PHASES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL AS.
THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL KY...WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING.
PER THE MORNING RNK UPPER AIR SOUNDING...OUR REGION IS STILL
CONFINED WITHIN DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. ANY MOISTENING WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE
FROM TOP DOWN. THUS...FEEL ALL OF THE MODELS...AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...ARE WAY OVERDONE ON MEASURABLE QPF TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR UP THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND PLACEMENT FOR THIS EVENING WHICH SUGGESTS THE
ACTIVITY IN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE...WILL STILL
MANAGE TO CROSS INTO WVA AND POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG AREAS BY SUNDOWN. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND RAISE
POPS AFTER I TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FOLLOWING QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WVA TONIGHT. AGAIN...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EACH SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE FRONT A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE INITIAL UPPER SUPPORT IS BETTER TO
THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL SHOW MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT NORTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE THAN IN OUR REGION THROUGH FRI...THUS
ALLOWING THE FRONT WITH TIME TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WEST-EAST
CONFIGURATION AS OPPOSED TO A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. FINALLY
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THAT
TIME...HAVE DOWNPLAYED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL/MOS POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...AND ACTUALLY DO NOT HAVE ANY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY IN THE EXTREME WEST-
NORTHWEST...UNTIL ALMOST THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z FRI.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL
REDUCE INSOLATION AND OFFSET THE LOW-LEVEL WAA. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. REDUCED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM MODEL BLEND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY AIR
MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENTERING QUEBEC WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THIS
LOCATION...OR PERHAPS EVEN LIFT A LITTLE NORTH...AS ITS PARENT LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT OUT OF EAST TEXAS START TO PUT A BUCKLE IN THE FRONT
AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL IN
TUNE WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS CURVING FROM THE WESTERN PART OF OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTORS. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO
EXPERIENCE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF THESE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/8PM GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE STILL OFFERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST SURFACE
BASED CAPE REACHING 800-1000 J/KG AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES
IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED IN LINE WITH OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WITH THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAREST THE SURFACE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO REACH 40 TO 50 KTS. WHILE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
GUSTS OF WIND ADVISORY LEVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THANKS TO THE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE RIDGES ORIENTATION AND ROUGHLY 5000 FT MSL
MIXING HEIGHT...THE INVERTED-V NATURE OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST. ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO ADVANCE INTO PENNSYLVANIA...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPPING TO AROUND -4 C ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STORMS...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
COVERAGE MAY INITIALLY BE LESS JUST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT THEN REORGANIZE TO BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE
TROUGH. ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THOSE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR ABOVE 4000
FT MSL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST FLOW 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT EVEN MORE SO BY 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. AT THIS TIME...OUR SURFACE WIND SPEED/GUSTS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION WILL BE FORECAST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THERE MAY BE A THREE TO FIVE HOUR WINDOW CENTERED AROUND
8AM THAT ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FT MSL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJOINING GRAYSON HIGHLANDS OF WV VA MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS 850 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO SLOW TO 20KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL END BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST...AND HEAD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ANTICIPATE LOWS
AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TREND
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADING THROUGH THE CENTER PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE 00Z/8PM GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS POTENTIAL QUITE YET IN THE FORECAST.
LOW WILL BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN US
BECOMES WARMER AND MORE MOIST THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR BOUTS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AS WE GO OUT IN TIME MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIFFER ON
TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT IT APPEARS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE VA COAST
AT THIS HOUR. UPSTREAM ARE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORT WAVES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE WAY TO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...IN GENERATING MEASURABLE QPF WITH
THIS FIRST FEATURE. FEEL LARGELY THAT THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL
SIMPLY SERVE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH 00Z REMAINS
REMAINS AOA100 DROPPING INTO THE 045-080 RANGE AFT 06Z.
THUS...FOR NOW...HAVE IGNORED THE WIDESPREAD 0.10-0.20 INCH 6-HR
QPF GENERATED BY THE GFS AND THE MODEL GENERATED TAFS OF CIGS AOB
025 BY 00Z. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY SUB-VFR CIGS AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THAT THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK FRI
IN THE WEST...AND FRI LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR -RA/SPRINKLES BLF- LWB DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER
MORE QUICKLY AND ANY UPSTREAM -SHRA FROM THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MAY
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA AS SPRINKLES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
A BETTER CHANCE OF -RA REACHING EASTERN WV SHOULD OCCUR AFT 08Z
WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS...LIGHT SE MOST
LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET...VEERING TO SSW THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS POSSIBLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING...INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...MOVING INTO EASTERN WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION FRI
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND UPSLOPE -SHRA...POSSIBLY -SHSN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON-SUN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ANTECEDENT VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE VA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...BUT TAKE UNTIL FRI NIGHT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT REACH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
UNTIL FRIDAY...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY FROM THE WEST...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ONLY SEE MODEST RECOVERY AND WITH MIXING COULD
EASILY SEE MIN RH VALUES DROP TO 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA...BUT THE FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AND WIDESPREAD
10-HR FUEL MOISTURES OF 6-7 PERCENT NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
FURTHERMORE...SPC PLANS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THUS...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH LINES UP WITH
LWX/AKQ/RAH PLANS AS WELL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS
CONCERN...AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL FRI-SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY WET AND UNSETTLED...SO THIS COULD
BE THE END OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOMETIME TO COME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...PM/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
853 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT..WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 2500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SHOWERS ARE ENDING. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING
NEAR 2500 FEET. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE OREGON
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS
THAT THE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTAIN VERY SMALL HAIL. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500 FEET THIS EVENING AND WILL DROP TO AROUND 2500
FEET SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SHOWERS END. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT OVER ALL THE
DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS JUST OFFSHORE THE B.C. COAST AND WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW NEAR 42N 141W WILL BRING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AROUND 2500 FEET AND EXPECT 2 TO 5
INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR THE CASCADES BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FEET...AND
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET...INCLUDING THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN
EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...REACHING A POSITION JUST OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING UNSETTLED AND CONVECTIVE WEATHER
MONDAY. TJ
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED AGAIN...NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FURTHER SOUTH
DOWN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS INCONSISTENCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PANS OUT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER
SOUTH...PRECIP COULD STILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER 2/3RDS OF
OUR AREA. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK...THOUGH...WE ARE
HESITANT TO REMOVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF OUR
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BY THURSDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON LATE NEXT WEEK WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND...OR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T
VERY HIGH AS OF YET. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
NORTH INTERIOR VALLEY AND CASCADES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
KONP...WHICH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE CASCADES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR UNDER POST FRONTAL SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS THROUGH 08Z. /64
&&
.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A
LOW PRES NEAR B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING ABOUT 400 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL SEE WHAT MODELS DO IN THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
A LARGER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WAS GENERATED BY THE LOW OFF THE B.C.
COAST. SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 11 FT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT
INTO SAT AFTERNOON. ENP WAVE MODEL IS VERIFYING WELL COMPARED TO
OFFSHORE BUOYS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH SUN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE COAST INTO N CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. IT MAY BRING
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
MEAN SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
TO 7 PM PDT SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
523 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the region tonight bringing a
chance of showers. A stronger storm Sunday night and Monday may
bring a return of light snow accumulation to northeast Washington
and North Idaho. Unsettled and cool conditions will persist
through midweek then a drier and warmer pattern will return by
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday night: An upper-level trof will begin to
work east into the region bringing with it the threat for light
showers. As of 2PM...the leading cold front was tracking to the
Cascade Crest. There was a narrow but broken band of showers along
the front which has a history of producing between a trace to
0.06" of rain over some observation platforms on the windward side
of the range. Several runs of the HRRR suggest the line of broken
showers will make the trip across the Cascade Crest and bring a
brief threat for a few showers in the lee of the Cascades...just
prior to the westerly rain shadow developing. As such, low end
pops have been added. There is a also a small chance for a few
lightning strikes across the Northern Cascades as 500mb
temperatures dip near -30C and lift becomes enhanced along a vort
maxima. Any storms that develop will bring the threat for isolated
lightning strikes and brief downpours.
Ahead of the front, afternoon instability has resulted in shallow
convective towers and a few light showers on each the north and
south sides of the Eastern Basin. The first is across the
Northeastern Mountains of WA/Nrn ID and second along an axis from
the Blue Mtns to Camas Prairie to southern Shoshone County.
This activity will remain light and spotty through the afternoon
until the cold front arrives overnight. As the front interacts
with the instability, we could see a few showers intensify with
isolated rainfall amounts up to a quarter of an inch.
The trof will continue to come inland Saturday and continue to
cool upper-levels. Afternoon heating will spark isolated showers
across most mountain locations surrounding the Basin. At this
time, the depth and thermal profile of the instability looks to
weak to muster any thunder. Dry conditions will found across a
majority of the Basin.
One item of note will be the potential for widespread freezing
temperatures Sunday morning. This includes the Lewiston Area,
Moses Lake Area, Wenatchee Area and all other locations. Freeze
warnings may be necessary. /sb
...LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF IDAHO...
Sunday through Tuesday...A cold upper level low pressure system
will slowly drift south along the Washington/Oregon coast Sunday
into Monday, bringing cool and unsettled weather to the Inland
Northwest. Models are in agreement on the large scale pattern of
upper dynamics with this storm but the finer details of the track
of the surface low are still being debated.
As the upper low slides south along the coast, a surface low will
develop over central Oregon and track to the northeast. This track
is critical to determining the timing and location of the heaviest
precipitation. Models are showing a good deal of run-to-run
consistency but two schools of thought remain. The 12Z run of the
GFS and ECMWF tracks the surface low center north across the Idaho
panhandle while the NAM continues to track it farther west, from
the eastern Columbia Basin northeast to the northern panhandle.
The track of the low will determine where the best wrap-around
moisture and low level convergence will be along with the trowel
feature will develop. Following the GFS/EC guidance will bring
some light snowfall accumulations to the northeast valleys Sunday
night into Monday morning. One caveat will be the timing of the
precip. If the system is delayed just a few hours, the bulk of the
snowfall will be after sunrise, with much less of a chance of
accumulation. This is the main forecast concern and that which has
the lowest confidence level. A northeast surface pressure gradient
will bring colder air into the region from the north, which will
support snow levels to valley floors for the northeast zones. The
Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint areas will see snow falling, but it
may have difficulty accumulating. Expect breezy conditions for the
Purcell Trench into the basin but wind gusts will remain well
below advisory criteria.
The major change from the previous forecast package is to
increase the QPF for the southeast zones which resulted in a
couple of inches of snowfall accumulation for the Camas Prairie.
Confidence is higher for light snowfall accumulations here during
the overnight/early morning hours, but once the sun rises the snow
will quickly melt.
By Monday night we should be looking at just some scattered showers
from residual moisture circling the low. Instability showers
focused over the higher terrain will affect the Inland Northwest
on Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side of seasonal
normals Monday, particularly for areas under the surface low. They
will rebound a bit for Tuesday. /Kelch
Tuesday Night through Friday: The backedge of an elongated
shearing trough will move through the Inland Northwest Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This will provide the best chance of
showers...mainly in the afternoon and evening hours across the
mountainous areas. By Thursday and Friday the models start to
diverge on the idea of a trough moving down out of the Gulf of
Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF is more aggressive
with this idea where as the GFS is significantly weaker and takes
the wave through northern Canada and keeps a flat ridge over us.
For now have kept Thur/Fri dry with clouds increasing by late
Friday. Daytime temperatures will be a few degrees above average
for this time of the year. Overnight lows Tuesday night will be
below average and then Wed-Fri they will be at or slightly above
average for this time of the year. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A weak cold front will continue to pass through the
Cascades early this evening and then to the WA/ID border around
07z. Mid and high clouds will stream into the region ahead of the
front with a threat of showers. For MWH and EAT that threat will
generally end after 02z...but for PUW and LWS it could continue
through 10-12z. In fact the best chance of showers will be at
these latter two locations. Cigs will likely remain well into the
VFR category despite the best possibility of rain...however a
heavier shower could deliver brief MVFR conditions. By
Saturday...clearing skies are expected for all locations with VFR
condition expected. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 50 31 53 35 46 / 20 10 10 10 80 80
Coeur d`Alene 31 50 28 53 33 44 / 30 10 10 10 80 80
Pullman 33 49 31 52 35 45 / 40 10 10 30 80 80
Lewiston 36 54 32 56 38 51 / 50 10 10 30 70 80
Colville 32 53 28 55 33 49 / 30 20 10 0 60 80
Sandpoint 31 50 27 52 31 45 / 40 20 10 10 80 80
Kellogg 32 47 26 47 33 42 / 60 30 10 20 90 80
Moses Lake 33 59 31 58 36 55 / 10 0 0 10 50 50
Wenatchee 33 57 33 57 41 56 / 20 10 10 10 40 50
Omak 29 55 28 57 35 53 / 40 10 10 10 30 60
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
WELL... THE CHANCE FOR RAIN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED THIS
MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS NOW GONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
WI BY 1 PM TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE PRECIP ALONG THIS TROUGH.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARING BEHIND THIS TROUGH IN
MINNESOTA. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
MID 60S TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 18Z.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY SINCE
MOST AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT. HOWEVER... LOW DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT NORTHWEST
OF MADISON TO FOND DU LAC THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AWAITING SHOWERS OVER NE IOWA IN REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING. LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST EVENING ERODED AS THEY MOVED AWAY FROM
THIS BETTER FORCING AND WERE OUTRUN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH AND AS 60-70KT
LOW-LEVEL JET HEELS OVER TO THE EAST.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT
COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z UNTIL 850
MB TROUGH CLEARS TO THE EAST. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUN TO BRING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK SECONDARY WAVE. CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS
INT EH MID TO UPPER 30S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CLIP THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUS IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAY EVEN SEE A
MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE LAKE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...BUT WILL WARM BACK TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH A MAINLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THUS
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE FRONT SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WOULD
EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT WINDS OFF THE
LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONTINUED THE DOWN THE
MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
LOOKS COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO TAF LOCATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500
J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 18Z...AND EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z. LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY WITH EXPECTED
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RAINFALLS MOISTENING FUELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT...THOUGH LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIME TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EASE WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. LOWERING WINDS AND VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AFTER
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA
BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AWAITING SHOWERS OVER NE IOWA IN REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING. LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST EVENING ERODED AS THEY MOVED AWAY FROM
THIS BETTER FORCING AND WERE OUTRUN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH AND AS 60-70KT
LOW-LEVEL JET HEELS OVER TO THE EAST.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT
COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z UNTIL 850
MB TROUGH CLEARS TO THE EAST. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUN TO BRING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK SECONDARY WAVE. CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS
INT EH MID TO UPPER 30S.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CLIP THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUS IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAY EVEN SEE A
MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE LAKE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...BUT WILL WARM BACK TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH A MAINLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THUS
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE FRONT SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WOULD
EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT WINDS OFF THE
LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONTINUED THE DOWN THE
MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
LOOKS COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO TAF LOCATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500
J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 18Z...AND EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z. LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY WITH EXPECTED
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RAINFALLS MOISTENING FUELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT...THOUGH LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIME TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EASE WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. LOWERING WINDS AND VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AFTER
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA
BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SHOWING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 02-03Z THIS EVENING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL. SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COULD BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE
AIRPORTS OF KBFF AND KSNY. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST THROUGH THE AFTN. BAND OF PRECIP
IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. SNOW IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE TO PINE BLUFFS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED AT
KIMBALL. WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY
SURFACES BUT NOT ON THE ROADS...EXCEPT FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BRIEFLY ON ROADS IN LARAMIE
COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP TAPERING
OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...
HOWEVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL STILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO. THIS IS NOT THE MOST
DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT STRONGER THEN ANYTHING OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION WILL MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR.
MANY COMPETING FACTORS MAKE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TODAY
MORE DIFFICULT THAT NORMAL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY BE BASED
ON NOT ONLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO CRYSTAL TYPE AND OVERALL
SNOWFALL RATES. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...SUCH AT .1 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH WHEN
OCCURRING WITH AN EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL TEND TO MELT...
ESPECIALLY ON SURFACES SUCH AS ROADS. HOWEVER...WHEN THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL
INTENSITY WITH HIGHER RATES. SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY FOR A
FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA AT WHICH TIME SNOW RATES AROUND .5
INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR SHOULD OVERCOME MELTING. ITS AT THIS TIME
ROADS COULD BECOME SLUSHY TO EVEN SNOW COVERED.
GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SUMMIT...DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 116...EVEN THROUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW AMOUNTS TYPICALLY NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY IN A MOUNTAIN ZONE. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AS ROADS
SHOULD BECOME SNOW COVERED THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL VERY
ICY...MAKING FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL THROUGH THAT AREA. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAVEL PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY HAVE
SOME BLACK ICE CONCERNS THIS EVENING...FORTUNATELY SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MAJOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUICK MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SNOW ENDING
EARLY EVENING AND LIMITING OVERALL IMPACTS. BELOW 5000
FEET...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL SNOW WILL END WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES
BUT IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
A MILD AND WINDY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AT BAY ON SUNDAY WHILE PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT LLVL
MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE AS INCREASING GRADIENTS
ALLOW WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AT LEAST 500 HPA WITH A SOLID CORE OF
40 TO 50 KT FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE SFC ABOVE KRWL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN...HIGH WIND HEADLINES CAN
NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER...AND
GENERALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BOTH TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE STARTING
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CAL ON MON MORNING. THIS ENERGY SHOULD EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MON NIGHT...SO OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO BE GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. COLD FROPA OCCURS ON TUE WITH ECMWF H7 TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -2 DEG C. WHILE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LLVL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE WITH A DECENT
QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE WEEK AS A FRAGMENTED WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE
TRENDED COOLER IN ANTICIPATION OF UPSLOPE-DRIVEN CLOUDS AND PCPN ON
TUE NIGHT-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SHOWING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 02-03Z THIS EVENING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL. SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COULD BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE
AIRPORTS OF KBFF AND KSNY. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DRY AND COOL FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
SATURDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
142 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS
SATURDAY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND A SECOND ONE MAY BRING MORE
WET WEATHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN CT/MA THIS HOUR AS
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS PA/SRN NY PER MSAS. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE PRECIP SHIELD FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER
WILL LIKELY BE A SPLIT BETWEEN OFFSHORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COLOCATED WITH THE MORE ROBUST LLJ AND THE DEFORMATION/F-GEN
INDUCED PRECIP TO THE N OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE TRACK IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIRECTLY ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...THIS
ACTUALLY PUTS US BETWEEN THE TWO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AXES. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IT CONTINUES TO BE LESS DENSE ACROSS BOX THAN IT DOES OKX CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY FOG HEADLINES WITH THIS
UPDATE...BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT A SHIELD OF LOWER DENSE FOG BLOSSOMING UP TO ABOUT
THE MASS PIKE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WILL
SEE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR WET-WEATHER IMPACTS BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONCLUDING TOWARDS MORNING:
1) LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H85 JET
MAINLY ACROSS THE S-COASTLINE OF NEW ENGLAND. HERE THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /CONVECTIVE
INDICES JUST AT OR NEAR THRESHOLDS/ WILL BRING WITH IT THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE THUNDER THREAT. NEVERTHELESS
HAVE ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES OVER S/SE MA AND RI... ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED...BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET. LOW CONFIDENCE
/ RISK WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ...
2) MID-LEVEL FORCING COLLOCATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS / DEFORMATION
TOWARDS THE NW- QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A BROADSCALE AREA OF OUTCOMES
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. THIS PUTS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF NEW ENGLAND IN SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
TWO AREAS OF BEST FORCING. SUBSEQUENTLY IT IS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
N CT AND CENTRAL MA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 0.25
INCHES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER N AND W CLOSER TO AREAS OF BETTER LIFT.
ANOTHER FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS WITH RESPECT TO DENSE FOG.
PRESENTLY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE S-COAST OF CT
WERE REPORTING QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES. FEEL THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON OUTCOMES. IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT AREAS OF S/SE NEW
ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN A SOUP. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS OF
SEEING A MAJORITY OF FOG IMPACTS AT HALF A MILE. COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SOME BREEZY SW-WINDS OFF THE OCEAN MAY LIMIT FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO DENSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WILL BRIEF ONCOMING SHIFTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 12Z AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE SW.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...OTHERWISE CLOUDS GIVE
WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MIDDAY...
THEN SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ALONG WITH STRONG PRES RISES. 850 MB
WINDS 40-50 KT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN IN
GUSTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 KT SO WE CONTINUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING WIND. COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO N NEW
ENG LATE SAT NIGHT AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE N...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. LOW MOSTLY IN THE
20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A SMALL CURVATURE IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE FLAT FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST USA. SHORTWAVE AND JET MOVE OUT OF THE WEST DURING
THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
CLOSED LOW MOVES ASHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND
MIGRATES EAST MIDWEEK...MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
SIMILARITY AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN SPEED OF SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW. ALSO DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING THE EJECTION OF CALIFORNIA LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...IT/S A
CAVALCADE OF SHORTWAVES...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SURFACE FEATURES AND RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LEAD AND WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 850 MB. WE SHOULD GET A SUNNY
START...WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW DEEPLY WE MIX BEFORE THE FRONTAL CLOUDS GET
TOO THICK. DEEPER MIXING WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF TAPPING THE
STRONGER WINDS. TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -4C TO -6C WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...MIXING TO 900 MB
WOULD SUGGEST 40S. WE OPTED FOR THE DEEPER MIXING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. ALSO NOTE THAT
TOTAL-TOTALS REACH THE UPPER 40S MOST AREAS BY EVENING. THIS WOULD
INDICATE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...BUT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
PARAMETERS AT THIS TIME. BEARS WATCHING.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WAVE
TRAVELS ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY BE ABLE TO PULL IT NORTH OF OUR
AREA BY MONDAY. IF SO THEN THIS WOULD PLUNGE ALL OF OUR AREA INTO
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. DEW POINTS 25-30 SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO WET BULB DURING ANY SHOWERS...AND CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. BUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN...ANY PCPN SHOULD CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THE BEST SUPPORT
OF PCPN MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WE WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS
IN NORTHERN MASS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 15 PCT SOUTH OF US-44. TEMPS
AT 850 MB CLIMB TO 2C SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS 60-65. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKAGE OF THE SKY COVER BUT WITH
LESS FAVORABLE MIXING THAN SUNDAY. SO WE WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE FULL POTENTIAL...MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXCEPT 45-55 WHERE THE
WIND IS OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER QUEBEC. THIS SHOULD BRING A CHILLY EAST- NORTHEAST WIND TO
THE REGION. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE AND ITS SUPPORTING JET RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA AND GENERATE ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS NOTED
ABOVE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. IT COULD BE A
LITTLE SOONER OR IT COULD WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF CALIFORNIA FOR LATE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD DEVELOP A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF MOVEMENT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN IN QUESTION...BUT CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SHOWERS
SOMETIME DURING THE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 14Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF LIFR/IFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO BRIEF MVFR THEN TO VFR.
EXPECT THE IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW...MAINLY 10Z-14Z
FROM SW TO NE. UNTIL THEN...PERIODS OF RAIN/DENSE/FOG AND LOW CIGS
CONTINUE.
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR AFTER IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
WINDS...WNW 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH 50 KT AT TIMES AT AROUND 2KFT. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS SUNDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY MAY START VFR BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN OR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
TONIGHT...
SW FLOW RAMPS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AS LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACHES BUT INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP GUSTS BELOW 30 KT.
VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY S
COASTAL WATERS.
SATURDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FROPA AS
LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR GUSTS 35-45 KT...STRONGEST OVER E MA COASTAL WATERS.
IMPROVING VSBYS AFTER WIND SHIFT TO NW.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
LINGERING GALES POSSIBLY E WATERS IN THE EVENING...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WIND WITH GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA LATE SAT NIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 25-30 KNOTS...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
GALES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUILDING SEAS WITH
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS...5 TO 6
FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
LIKELY...WITH A LOW-END CHANCE OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
MONDAY...
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5-6 FOOT SEAS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIGHTER EAST OF MA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BOTH DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WINDS EXPECTED TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY AND 20-25 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS TUESDAY...BUILDING TO 5-8 FEET WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50" EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE S/SE COASTLINE INCLUDING
OFFSHORE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE SNOW LEFT IN E MA WITH 1-3 INCHES
SWE LEFT IN CENTRAL AND W MA. FORECAST RAINFALL AND INTERIOR
SNOWMELT NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING. NERFC HAS A
FEW RIVERS IN EASTERN MA REACHING ACTION STAGE INCLUDING THE NORTH
NASHUA...ASSABET...SUDBURY...AND TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER...AS
WELL AS THE PAWCATUCK IN SW RI. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RIVERS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ002>004.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ002>024-026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR RIZ001>008.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ230-232>235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
319 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
309 PM CDT
THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRECIP WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY CONTINUES TO
EXIT AT THIS TIME WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND FAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WITH ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT LIGHT AND BRIEF. TEMPS ALREADY FALLING FAIRLY QUICK
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
ALREADY AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 30 DEG WEATHER LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING...BUT WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT
TIME FRAME.
EXITING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE WAY FOR RISING HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND WITH SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO
RISE TO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN AROUND 60 IN THE
WESTERN CWA. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AS MAIN ACTIVITY STAYS TO THE NORTH. AN EVEN WARMER
DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
235 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ULTIMATELY...THIS SHOULD SET UP A WEST-SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL
CONUS...SUPPORTING A BROAD AND A QUASI STATIONARY AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY RIGHT ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS MAY
END UP RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SET UP IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN THE COLDEST CONDITIONS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SETTING UP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
PARALLELS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN ACT AS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES TO MOVE ALONG AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL LIKELY INDUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A PROLONGED
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE OF
STORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD RESULT IN A SMALL ELEVATED HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS THAT IT COULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA AS WE RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO I LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THESE POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THE CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOK TO INCREASE FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SOUTHWEST UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND HENCE WHEN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
END.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MILD SOUTH AND COOL
NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
ONLY FOREAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDS. LOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE AND COULD MIX QUITE DEEP BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO LOWER 30KT RANGE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW HIGH GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS/GUSTS DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY DIMINISHING UNDER
10KTS...THEN INCREASING BACK INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MVFR CIGS PROBABLE...IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS. A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA
POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Clear
skies are expected through the TAF period as high pressure slides
from southern KS to central KY/TN by tomorrow evening. Winds will
be northwest overnight and then become westerly during the morning
hours, and then southwest tomorrow evening; all in response the
the moving high pressure. Wind speeds will be lighter overnight
but then become a little breezy tomorrow afternoon, and then
decrease again during the evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
359 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY
LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND BREEZY AGAIN WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND HAS
CLEARED OUT SKIES QUICKLY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIE
DOWN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT US THE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXITS THE EAST COAST.
MAIN STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL FOSTER DEEP MIXING TO AT LEAST 850MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOOON/EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN DEEPER MIXING WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY
MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS...BUT WOULD ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEING TOO LOW. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES ~2 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM WITH MEANDERING QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND PLEASANT BUT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH
GOOD MIXING AND GRADIENT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RESPOND INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S. CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.
DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT AND MODELS POINT TO BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH TUESDAY BUT
SEVERAL WAVES EXPECTED TO RIDE EAST AS FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. NO
SKILL IN FORECASTING THE SUBTLE WAVES AND TIMING SO BLENDED POP
INITIALIZATION GENERALLY ACCEPTED. TEMPS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK BUT COOLER AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW AS 850MB TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OR RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. FOR
NOW STAYED WITH BLENDED TEMPS WHICH AGAIN ARE CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
STRONGER WAVE MAY APPROACH BY LATE WEEK AND INITIALLY LIFT BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT THIS
SCENARIO WITH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EXACT EVOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
KEPT GUSTY WINDS AT KFWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
MID DAY SATURDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL INCREASE
WINDS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S... WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
DEEPENING SHRTWV OVER WI/IA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVE.
FGEN BAND OF RAIN SPREADING EAST INTO SERN PORTION OF CWA SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE...PSBLY ENDING AS A SHORT PERIOD OF
-SN. SECOND BAND ACROSS NE IL JUST PRODUCING SPRINKLES THUS FAR BUT
SUPPORTS LEAVING A LOW POP ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA LATE THIS AFTN.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS STRENGTHENING SHRTWV SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS SFC RIDGE
BUILDS IN BUT EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DRYING AND GRADIENT MIXING
TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. STRONG CAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE M-U20S ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHRTWV
MOVG ACROSS THE GRTLKS IN NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTG SOUTH. AMPLE
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH DRY AIRMASS AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DEEP MIXING SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS... CONTD TO LEAN TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L50S EAST AND M50S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
DRY/MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...AND AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONES SETS UP NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LAKES. CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY`S HIGHS
GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY SW FLOW.
LOW AMPLITUDE/SHEARED SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKES LATER SUNDAY WILL FORCE A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRAPED
WEST-TO-EAST AND OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER LAKES AND OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS IT PARALLELS THE NEAR ZONAL (WSW)
FLOW ALOFT. AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS PERTURBED FLOW WILL RESULT
IN PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE TEMP/POP
FORECAST FOR ANY ONE PERIOD NEXT WEEK REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES OF UPPER WAVES AND IMPACTS OF CONVECTION.
AS A RESULT CONTINUED TO HOLD CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS BLEND
AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
KEPT GUSTY WINDS AT KFWA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO RELAX ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA.
OTHERWISE...WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL
MID DAY SATURDAY WHEN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WENT
WITH SUSTAINED 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS TAF
ISSUANCE...BUT HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE EVEN STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL INCREASE
WINDS IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SURE THIS TERM AND THIS SECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LENGTHY. FIRST THINGS RIGHT OFF THE BAT WAS TO STAY
W/THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR CONTINUITY
PURPOSES AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES IF WARRANTED W/THE 630
AM UPDATE.
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MOVING NE. REGIONAL RADAR HAD LARGE AREA OF PRECIP
EXTENDING FROM NYS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE(FVE 8SM -SN) AS TEMPERATURES
WERE FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER 30S DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION RANGED FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S W/LOWER 40S TO THE SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS W/THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THE COOLING WILL BE SLOWER W/RAIN AND THEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST BEING THE
LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 ". ATTM,
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER S
TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE BANGOR-BAR
HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS OVER 30
MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE. &&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TODAY BRINGING A BRIEF COOLDOWN
THAT SHOULD END ON SUNDAY AT WHICH TIME MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER
SHALL RETURN. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BRING MILDER
WEATHER BUT ALSO A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND SLOWLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A FEW LIGHT ECHOS WERE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO OUR
WESTERNMOST ZONES...BUT SUSPECT NO PRECIPITATION IS YET REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT
CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST
BEHIND THE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BEFORE THE COLUMN UNDERGOES
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND MANY PLACES MAY JUST
RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
NEAR MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRIL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A FEW
DEGREES UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND THEN NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY SLOWLY
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT A
POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS WILL
FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT APPRECIABLY SO. A
DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS MAY REPRESENT
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. PREDOMINATELY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL 19Z
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NE
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AND 4
TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN STORE
FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL VEERING
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS ALL THE WAY
AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS AS FAR AS
WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER POORLY
DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS
CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW QUITE
WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A NEARSHORE
AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK INTO
THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30 DEGREES OR
LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING
DISPLAYS INDICATE A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET...FROM THE SW AT 35 TO
45 MPH...THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE SFC PG
TIGHTENING-SOME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...
OVERALL...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ALL NIGHT LONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GUSTS A RESULT OF THE MIXING OF THE HIER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK DOWN TO THE SFC. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RUN
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...NOT TOO FAR FROM CURRENT VALUES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS ALOFT FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN WILL BYPASS THE ILM CWA TO OUR
NW THRU N TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY FRONTAL DYNAMICS TO
PLAY WITH FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. SOME SCOURING OF THE OVERALL
MOISTURE THRU THE ATM TO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ONCE IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE
COAST. POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE HEADING TOWARD
SUNRISE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...ROUGHLY WEST
OF I-95 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO NEGLECT THUNDER DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE MODEL TSTORM PARAMETERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MORNING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF
THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 12Z AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH...BUT
LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE AREA AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET
CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 40-50
PERCENT RANGE TO REFLECT THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST
AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. THE DIURNAL CURVE WILL BE
DAMPENED ACROSS THE INTERIOR CWA DUE TO MORNING FROPA...AND EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE TEMPS FALL INTO A 35-40 DEGREE RANGE...BUT LOW-LYING
SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA WILL BE COLDER AND
SHOULD EXPECT PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL USHER THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. A VERY DRY COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EFFECTS OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS. RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 50S
SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A GENERAL
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER WITH A SUMMERTIME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING MOST OF THE TIME. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC TAKES PRECEDENCE. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAKES A
RUN TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY BUT QUICKLY FADES AS WELL. OVERALL POPS
ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY AND ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHEN
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE...MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SEEM TO BE
THE BEST BETS WHEN WEAK BOUNDARIES ARE IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ECLIPSING 80 AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE
NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. PREDOMINATELY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...SSW-SW WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS...VIA OCPN7 AND MROS1 AND JMPN7 AREA
PIERS. A BIT SLOWER FARTHER OFFSHORE...BUT NEVERTHELESS THEY TOO
WILL BEGIN INCREASING. EXPECT SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE SSW-SW UP TO 15 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN SAT HOURS. WITH WINDS
30-40 KT JUST OFF THE DECK...SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS REACH 30+
KT AT THE OCEAN SFC. CURRENT SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE...WILL BE IN A BUILDING PHASE THRU THE PRE-DAWN SAT
HOURS...AND LIKELY REACH 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT OUTER
WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR BY DAYBREAK SAT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS
BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 SECONDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST AROUND NOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER. WILL
ALSO ADD MENTION OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTHERN
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
POST-FRONTAL WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
THE PRIMARY FEATURE. AN INCREASE IN THE BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN TO
THE WEST TURNS THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJD/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME OOPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING OUR
AREA IN A FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP BEING
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 30 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 30 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY.
LIGHT RAIN/ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. EXPECT PCPN TO RESUME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOWS UP VERY NICELY ON AREA RADARS...WILL ENTER
THE NORTHERN CWA BY 04Z AND EXIT THE SOUTH BY 10Z. COULD STILL SEE
SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DEEP MSTR BUT
THE 00Z KCRP SOUNDING DEPICTS A PRETTY STOUT CAP ABV H8 SO CVRG
WILL BE VERY LIMITED. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SLOWLY INCREASE EVENTUALLY KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA. ALL
IN ALL THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SCA CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE EXISTING SCA PRODUCT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE CIGS
AND RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR IT AND BEHIND IT. OVERALL...AM NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSED WITH THE RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT AT KLRD WHERE
STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP IN THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WOULD MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND IMPACT
THAT TERMINAL. IN KLRD...DO HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 04Z WITH TEMPO
THUNDER BEFORE FROPA TIL 08Z (THEN SHOWERS). FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...THINK CAP WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER (OR PROBABILITY TOO
LOW) SO DO HAVE VCSH FOR TIMING OF FROPA...ABOUT 04Z AT KVCT...07Z
AT KALI AND 08Z AT KCRP (BASED ROUGHLY ON HRRR OUTPUT)...PRODUCING
GUSTY NNE WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINK CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR
OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH TEMPO IFR FOR SHOWERS WITH AND NEAR FROPA
(THINK GFS-MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC OVERALL CONSIDERING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. BEHIND FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AND MVFR WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE MORNING AND IFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
UPGLIDE GETS A BIT BETTER (BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF RAIN BUT BETTER
CHANCE AT KLRD). WINDS DIMINISH MID/LATE MORNING AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE REGION IS STILL FAIRLY CAPPED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES
MODELS GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 03Z. MODELS
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH IT NEARLY THROUGH THE
AREA BY 09Z AND HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...WITH POPS
PRIMARILY IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUD COVER...RAIN
CHANCES AND THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN 60S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT MAY NOT REACH 60 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH E AND SE FLOW RETURNING.
MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS OVER THE BAYS WILL AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
BAYS AND WATERWAYS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WATERS UNTIL 00Z.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD WITH 25-30KTS OF FLOW ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE MORNING BUT WILL BE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED POPS FROM 30 IN THE AM TO 20
IN THE PM. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT. HIGHS MAINLY BACK
IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHED BY MID WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
POSSIBLY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG DECISIONS WITH
REGARD TO THAT FRONT YET...BUT HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 63 78 67 80 / 30 40 30 10 10
VICTORIA 67 62 79 66 80 / 30 40 30 10 10
LAREDO 62 55 83 67 88 / 50 50 30 10 10
ALICE 67 61 81 66 83 / 40 40 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 67 64 75 68 77 / 30 30 30 10 10
COTULLA 63 56 81 65 85 / 50 50 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 62 81 67 82 / 40 40 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 69 65 75 68 77 / 30 40 30 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
&&
$$
WC/87...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. LATER
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO KCLL AND KUTS TOWARD MORNING. THE
RAP AND HRRR ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN THAN THE NAM AND GFS.
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO CIGS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SO
STAYED CLOSE TO PREV TAF PACKAGE WHICH BRINGS MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY SAT AFTN WITH MORE MVFR COGS
DEVELOPING SAT NITE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING. SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FRONT /VISIBLE ON THE
KHGX RADAR STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO THE WOODLANDS TO
LIVINGSTON AS OF 9:30 PM CDT/ PLACES THE FRONT ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM CDT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIMITED /7 PM CDT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON SHOWING A CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN 800-700 MB/... BUT ISOLATED CELLS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING HAVE DONE LITTLE MORE THAN PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE... WITH RAP/HRRR AND LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. MAIN FORECAST
UPDATES CENTERED AROUND BUMPING UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 67 56 74 65 / 30 20 40 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 67 57 76 66 / 30 20 30 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 68 65 76 68 / 30 20 20 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWING A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS AND NOT MUCH IF ANY
IN THE WAY OF STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. FIRST COUPLE OF
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND WALK OUTSIDE TO STRETCH LEGS AND TAKE A
LOCAL OB SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S AT 9AM WILL RISE QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GETS HIGHER IN THE
SKY AND THE LOWEST/SURFACE LEVELS START WARMING UP.
THE HRRR AND OTHER LOCAL SMALL SCALE SHORT TERM MODELS PLACE THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET. MOST/ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA`S WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE 8AM CAPE CANAVERAL AND
TAMPA SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 0.78 TO
1.02 INCHES OF WATER IN THE LAYER. THE CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON 20 TO
30 POP FROM FAR NORTHERN BREVARD...SEMINOLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH LAKE COUNTIES NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. TO THE SOUTH...SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
WILL WATCH TEMPERATURE TREND FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 20Z. 20Z-24Z...TEMPO LOCAL MVFR
DUE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM KTIX-KORL-KLEE NORTH. AFT 00Z
BKN-OVC VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATES STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA.
.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. WINDS TURN ONSHORE BY MID AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS FORM AND PUSH WEST/INLAND.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET MOST LIKE TO BE ISSUED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR WARM DRY
CONDITIONS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WL BEGIN TO BREAK TODAY AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO TONIGHT. THE UPR WAVE WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
RAIN CHCS TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT VOLUSIA AND NRN LAKE COUNTIES ALONG
WITH AN ISOLATED STORM INITIALLY OVER N CENTRAL FL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MENTIONABLE SHOWERS WL SPREAD SOUTH MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE SFC FRONT RAIN CHCS LOOK
ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE TO ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN AFFECTED AREAS. ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH DESPITE THE PSG OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE COAST INLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BREEZY ENE/E WIND
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FELT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE VOLUSIA COAST
MAY REALIZE M70S FOR HIGHS WITH U70S/L80S ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY REMAINING A BIT
ELEVATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MILD LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.
MON-MON NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -11C/-
12C. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INLAND MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCES (30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH L80S AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
INLAND.
TUE-FRI...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUE SMALL THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED...THEN AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. CONTINUED
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THE NEXT 12 TO 18H WL BE MARKED BY VFR CONDS ALL SITES.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AOA FL 035 WL OCCUR MAINLY FM DAB-SFB-LEE AFT
00Z TONIGHT WITH SOME LWR CIGS AND ISOLD SHRA SPREADING S TO MLB-
KISM AFT 04/04Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BOATING CONDS WL BE FAVORABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH SEAS NR 2-3 FT AND WINDS AT TO BELOW 10 KNOTS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE WATERS FROM FLAGLER
BEACH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WILL STEADILY INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INITIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH BUILDING SEAS
AND SWELL.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...MAINLY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH INITIAL NE/ENE
WINDS VEERING TO ESE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KTS GREET
THE NEW DAY NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD LINE AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD SLOWLY TO NEAR SEBASTIAN INLET. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY START TO BUILD WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND WILL INCREASE TO
6-8 FT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET (OFFSHORE) BY EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BUILD AWAY FROM THE COAST UP TO 4-6 FT.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT (E-SE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND WITH INITIAL 5-6 FT SEAS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC FALLING TO 3-4 FT ON TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 67 76 66 / 20 30 30 20
MCO 86 67 82 66 / 10 20 30 10
MLB 84 69 79 68 / 10 20 40 20
VRB 85 66 80 67 / 10 20 40 20
LEE 84 65 80 67 / 20 20 30 10
SFB 86 67 78 66 / 20 20 30 10
ORL 85 68 79 67 / 10 20 30 10
FPR 85 65 80 68 / 10 20 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
High pressure centered from Oklahoma to Kentucky will provide dry
and brisk southwest flow across Illinois today, as low pressure
passes by to the north across the western Great Lakes. Very dry
air is associated with the chilly Canadian airmass, as dewpoints
linger in the lower 20s across most of the area. The dry air will
warm quickly in the full sunshine, helping to push highs into the
low 60s. Relative humidity levels will dip to below 25 pct in the
gusty afternoon winds, which will create a higher fire danger if
any grass fires develop.
The forecast grids are in good shape and only minor updates were
needed to the hourly temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Main concern this period
will be with the gusty southwest winds expected from 15z-22z today
as high pressure shifts south of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest some deep mixing occurring later this morning into the
afternoon hours with a few gusts out of the southwest up to 27kts
possible, especially along the I-74 corridor TAF locations (PIA,
BMI and CMI). Southwest winds are expected to diminish by late
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kts this evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
634 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS INTO IL/IN AND BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BRINING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES...WHILE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. PERIODS OF
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE
40S/50S NORTH TO THE 60S/70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LIFTING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER TEMPS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO VARY WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS
DISTANCE HOWEVER...MAKING CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER DETAILS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS POINT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* STRONG/GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS MID MORNING THRU EARLY
EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTS
25-30KTS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
BE DOWN TO 10KTS OR SO BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND MAY DIMINISH WELL UNDER 10KTS FOR A TIME...BUT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS LIKELY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
623 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Main concern this period
will be with the gusty southwest winds expected from 15z-22z today
as high pressure shifts south of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest some deep mixing occurring later this morning into the
afternoon hours with a few gusts out of the southwest up to 27kts
possible, especially along the I-74 corridor TAF locations (PIA,
BMI and CMI). Southwest winds are expected to diminish by late
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kts this evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1146 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1140 AM UPDATE...TWO BANDS HAVE SET UP ON RADAR; THE HEAVIEST
LIES FROM EAST CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN TO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. A WEAKER BAND HAS ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY DOWN INTO NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH
THESE BANDS. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ABOUT
DANFORTH WEST TO DOVER-FOXCROFT. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BANDING AND THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED THAT MUCH. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
757 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
755 AM UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE AS MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE MID 30S. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, EXPECT
THESE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MIXING
OCCURS. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED RAIN INTO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
648 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE: ATTM WILL HOLD W/THE ADVISORY AND LET THE
DAYCREW MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK AS
SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING NE
AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE. &&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
SHORT TERM:
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1027 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT
WEEK. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST OBS
SHOW THE FRONT LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT
CURRENT RATE EXPECT FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND NOON OR
SO...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER.
HRRR AND RAP13 MODELS NOT DOING TOO BAD AS FAR AS
COVERAGE...MOVEMENT AND NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION GOES SO WILL
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THEM PLUS PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS 14-15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL END NW-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANCE OF MVFR BUT IF IT OCCURS
IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO LIGHT N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND
NOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL 19Z FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NE
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AND
4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK/MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK/MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB
FIRE WEATHER...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
745 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WETTING TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS...INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SPRINTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT FEW STATIONS HAVE MEASURED AS OF YET.
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS AROUND 13Z AND THE COASTAL TERMINALS 14-15Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL END NW-SE THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE CHANCE OF MVFR BUT IF IT OCCURS
IT WILL BE BRIEF WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH THE DAY. VFR/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO LIGHT N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL
19Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
NE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
613 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WETTING TO MOST OF THE AREA...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS...INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK. THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SPRINTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...BUT FEW STATIONS HAVE MEASURED AS OF YET.
THIS FORECAST IS BIASED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE HRRR MODEL WHICH
SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO WARRANT CHANCE/GOOD CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE THE
COLUMN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN HOWEVER...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND
MANY PLACES MAY JUST RECEIVE A LIGHT AND BRIEF WETTING AND NOT
MEASURE.
GIVEN THE TIMING...AND WITH ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MISSING
WELL TO OUR NORTH...WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING...LASTLY AT THE COAST
AROUND MIDDAY. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
IS IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY APRILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS...COMPLIMENTS OF LOW LEVEL JETTING...HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS FALLING A DEGREE OR TWO AS SOME
OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE COLUMN AND CAUSES
SOME SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY AS S TO SW WINDS TURN N THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S...PERHAPS A CATEGORY LOWER AT THE BEACHES AS SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION BATTLES DEVELOPING APRIL SUNSHINE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN
TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY INTO THIS MORNING...BUT CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE LATER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUNNY...OR MOSTLY SO.
TONIGHT...CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE EVE
AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS N OF A FLO TO NEAR EYF TO WATHA LINE. SOIL
TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 60S NOW AND GIVEN LOWS IN THESE AREAS
WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP TO THE MID 30S TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FROST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. LOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD KEEPING MIXING SOMEWHAT MARGINALIZED EVEN
THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BE HAPPENING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED
LAYER. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF THE COAST A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP REALIZE THIS WAA AT THE
SURFACE. AS A RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND
THEREFORE MUCH LESS CHILLY THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SIMILARLY MONDAY
WILL OFFER UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE GETS A DEEPER
ASCENT BOOST FROM SOME WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES. MUCH OF THE COLUMN
ABOVE ABOUT 700MB REMAINS WESTERLY HOWEVER AND CAN`T HELP BUT WONDER
IF SATURATION IN SAID LAYERS SHOWN IN FCST SOUNDINGS IS OVERDONE.
HAVE CUT POPS JUST A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL KEEP QPF TRIVIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A VERY
SLOWLY BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT A POORLY DEFINED PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERALL THIS
WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR EVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ADDING SOME HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES BUT AS MID LEVELS LIKELY STAY DRY PERHAPS NOT
APPRECIABLY SO. A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST. THIS
MAY REPRESENT OUR BEST RAIN CHANCE OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT. A MIXTURE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AROUND 11-13Z. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...HOWEVER ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
WETTER. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...BY MID
MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL
19Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE GRADIENT JUST AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SUCH HEADLINES. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THROUGH MIDDAY...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO
NE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...SOME FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY WILL END UP OVER THE COASTLINE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE DIRECTION. THIS GRADUAL
VEERING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. WHEREAS NORMALLY THIS WOULD BRING WINDS
ALL THE WAY AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEASTERLY IS
AS FAR AS WE`LL VEER LOCALLY. THE REASON FOR THIS IS A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE CENTER OF THE OFFSHORE HIGH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
POORLY DEFINED LOCALLY AND ACROSS THE BIGGER PICTURE ON TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. SWELL ENERGY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SO PREDOMINANT WAVE
HEIGHTS CAPPED AT JUST 2 TO 3 FT. OVER LAND TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
QUITE WARM SO A STRONG SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LEADING TO A
NEARSHORE AND INLET ROUGHNESS. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY IS A SLIGHT PULLBACK OF THE RIDGE AXIS BACK
INTO THE OCEAN POSSIBLY VEERING THE LOCAL FLOW BY PERHAPS 30
DEGREES OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN...
HORRY...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND COASTAL PENDER COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM S AND SW TO N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE DROPPING...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...DOWN TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT...LOWEST
ACROSS MANY OF OUR INLAND COMMUNITIES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL
FIRE WEATHER...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
726 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY OVERCAST MORNING WILL IMPROVE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
...PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCANSIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
MORNING LINE OF NORTHERN PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ON THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP INTO EASTERN TEXAS`S MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF WHAT MAY BECOME THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WARM FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING
OUR AREA IN A FRIDAY- SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP
BEING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 30 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 30 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP FOR
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWING A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
FROM THE TALLAHASSEE AREA INTO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTH
FLORIDA AREAS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS DELAYED EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMATION NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT MESONET OBS SHOW THE SEA
BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA COAST AND
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
THE HRRR AND OTHER LOCAL SMALL SCALE SHORT TERM MODELS PLACE THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET. MOST/ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA`S WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY
MESOSCALE/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE 8AM CAPE CANAVERAL AND
TAMPA SOUNDINGS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM AROUND 0.78 TO
1.02 INCHES OF WATER IN THE LAYER. THE CURRENT LATE AFTERNOON 20 TO
30 POP FROM FAR NORTHERN BREVARD...SEMINOLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH LAKE COUNTIES NORTH LOOKS REASONABLE. TO THE SOUTH...SEA/LAKE
BREEZE INITIATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT STRETCHES WEST EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE SLOWLY
RETREATING/DEPARTING FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AT THE COAST.
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ALSO PULLS MARINE STRATO CU ASHORE MAKING FOR
MOSTLY TO CLOUDY SKIES.
MON-MON NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE GOMEX. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FRONT STILL LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -11C/-
12C. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND INLAND MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY. WILL CARRY LOW
END CHANCES (30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INLAND. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST WITH L80S AND PERHAPS A FEW M80S
INLAND.
TUE-FRI...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES DURING
THIS PERIOD...THOUGH GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GOMEX WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH WED BEFORE SLIDING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON THU THEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST INTO FRI. THE
WESTERN ATLC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR WED-FRI. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUE SMALL THREAT
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED...THEN AGAIN ON FRI. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PERIODS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. CONTINUED
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES THROUGH 05/02Z THEN MVFR CEILINGS BKN020-025 AS FRONT
MOVES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.MARINE...
NOAA BUOYS RECORDING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS. WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORM.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET MOST LIKE TO BE ISSUED FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON MARINE FORECAST.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT (E-SE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND WITH INITIAL 5-6 FT SEAS OVER
THE OPEN ATLC FALLING TO 3-4 FT ON TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 77 66 81 / 40 30 20 30
MCO 66 85 67 86 / 20 30 20 40
MLB 68 81 68 82 / 20 30 20 30
VRB 64 82 67 82 / 20 30 20 30
LEE 65 81 67 86 / 30 30 20 40
SFB 67 82 67 85 / 30 30 20 40
ORL 66 82 68 85 / 20 30 20 40
FPR 65 83 68 82 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
KELLY/WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
229 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TIMING OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...AND EACH OF THESE WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE WAVES EASTWARD
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VERY
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING CONSTANTLY. INSTEAD...THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE WAVES OF ENERGY.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
FIRST APPROACHING WAVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRY STEEP (E.G., AROUND 7 DEG C/KM)...SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A DECENT BET WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
WE END UP WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE TIMING
OF THE EJECTION OF THE MAIN SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE
TIMING IN A HURRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
DOES BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...IT COULD END
UP RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER...OR
NEAR THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION IF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM SYSTEM DOES GET ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THIS LATER WEEK SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE...AND HENCE HOW FOR NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET. IN SPITE
OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES...HOWEVER...THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE AREA. GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER DEEP
MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MILD SOUTH AND COOL
NORTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE PROLONGED ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23-00Z
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 28 KTS AT ROCHELLE AND DE KALB IN THE PAST
HOUR AS SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ALOFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF G30 KT WINDS TO THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL EASE OFF DURING THE 22Z-00Z TIME PERIOD
WITH GUSTS COMPLETELY SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAK WINDS
NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEST ESTIMATES PEG A
LAYER OF 40 KT WINDS ABOUT 2K FEET ABOVE THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT TILL ABOUT A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AT THE SURFACE BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
ED F
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE WIND FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
High pressure centered from Oklahoma to Kentucky will provide dry
and brisk southwest flow across Illinois today, as low pressure
passes by to the north across the western Great Lakes. Very dry
air is associated with the chilly Canadian airmass, as dewpoints
linger in the lower 20s across most of the area. The dry air will
warm quickly in the full sunshine, helping to push highs into the
low 60s. Relative humidity levels will dip to below 25 pct in the
gusty afternoon winds, which will create a higher fire danger if
any grass fires develop.
The forecast grids are in good shape and only minor updates were
needed to the hourly temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, as the skies
remain SKC. Gusty SW winds will be the main concern, as our area
sits between high pressure to the SW and low pressure over the
western Great Lakes. Winds speeds during peak heating will gust to
18-20kt at times this afternoon. Winds and gusts will subside with
sunset, then become gusty from the SW to 18kt again after 15z
tomorrow morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1111 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BREEZY...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DEVELOP EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...THE FOCUS FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY
AND TRAIL A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LITTLE ABOVE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN LAKES SYSTEM...SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NOTED IN UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MIXING TO AROUND 800 MB OR SO...
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 APPEAR REASONABLE
WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. ANOTHER MINOR MID-
LEVEL WAVE RIPPLES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MAINTAINING
FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS WI/MI. PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT EVEN
WARMER TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE
COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAY SAG DOWN THE LAKE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AND BRING COOLER TEMPS
TO THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE THEN STALLS OUT THE FRONT ALONG THE IL/WI
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA
KEEPING OVERNIGHT MINS TEMPS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH
SUBURBS OF CHICAGO WHERE THE COOLER AIR OF THE LAKE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPS IN THE 30S.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAGS INTO IL/IN AND BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
BRINING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKES...WHILE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. PERIODS OF
RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE
40S/50S NORTH TO THE 60S/70S ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LIFTING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARMER TEMPS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO VARY WITH THE DETAILS AT THIS
DISTANCE HOWEVER...MAKING CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER DETAILS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS POINT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* STRONG GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18-1900
LOCAL TIME (23-24Z).
ED F
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD REMAINS WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTS
25-30KTS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
BE DOWN TO 10KTS OR SO BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND MAY DIMINISH WELL UNDER 10KTS FOR A TIME...BUT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE. SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MID 20KT GUSTS LIKELY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OTHER ELEMENTS.
ED F
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
319 AM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATES BY
THIS EVENING. BUT THIS WEAK LOW WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY REACHING THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE MONDAY...THOUGH SPECIFIC MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS LOW AND CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
High pressure centered from Oklahoma to Kentucky will provide dry
and brisk southwest flow across Illinois today, as low pressure
passes by to the north across the western Great Lakes. Very dry
air is associated with the chilly Canadian airmass, as dewpoints
linger in the lower 20s across most of the area. The dry air will
warm quickly in the full sunshine, helping to push highs into the
low 60s. Relative humidity levels will dip to below 25 pct in the
gusty afternoon winds, which will create a higher fire danger if
any grass fires develop.
The forecast grids are in good shape and only minor updates were
needed to the hourly temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
The latest surface map has high pressure centered over southern
Kansas and is expected to drift into southern Missouri by later this
afternoon bringing quiet weather to the region. After a rather frosty
start to the day with early morning lows as cold as the middle 20s
in our northwest to the lower 30s southeast, we look for temps to
recover nicely this afternoon with forecast soundings indicating
lower 60s across the west with upper 50s far east. In addition, with
a well mixed boundary layer forecast, especially across the north,
we should see some gusty southwest winds this afternoon not only
helping to push temps a few degrees above guid, but also transporting
some drier air down as well with dew points out to our northwest
late yesterday afternoon in the single digits. HRRR and Rapid
Refresh guidance indicating gusts of 25 to 30 mph across the north
this afternoon with the winds expected to diminish rapidly by early
this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
Active pattern expected for the next several days. Main forecast
challenge will be trying to pin down any significant breaks in the
precipitation next week. However, dry conditions are on tap for the
remainder of the weekend.
Departing surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will lead
to rather breezy conditions on Sunday, with some gusts to around 30
mph. Focus then shifts to a shortwave coming up from the desert
Southwest. Have slowed the arrival of the showers/storms a bit
Sunday night and limited them to the post-midnight period, as best
moisture availability will be more toward the Ohio Valley and points
southward. On Monday, despite being in the warmer sector with the
frontal boundary closer to the I-80 corridor, models showing little
in the way of CAPE and a fair amount of CIN during the day over our
area. So, have focused more of the thunder chances across the
southwest third of the CWA.
Developing surface low over the central Plains on Monday is expected
to pull the frontal boundary southward. Evening models have trended
a bit further south with this drifting of the boundary. The GFS
brings it to around I-72 by Tuesday evening and I-70 by Wednesday
morning, while the ECMWF is about 50-75 miles further south of the
GFS at these points. Currently thinking the thunder potential would
be more in the southern half of the CWA, although have kept some
mention across the north as the low level shear may be enough to
compensate.
Future movements of this boundary later in the week will be dictated
by an upper low that will be coming onshore of the northern
California coast late Tuesday. Model differences begin to widen by
Thursday, with the GFS maintaining a more solid closed low tracking
into Minnesota by late week, while the ECMWF favors more of an open
wave solution. Both of these solutions drag the front back north mid
week as another surface low forms over the central Plains. Some
break in the rain is likely Wednesday morning across the north, with
shower/storm chances increasing again as the front lifts north. Have
maintained likely PoP`s for much of the Wednesday night through
Thursday night period. Friday is more of a question mark, as the
latest ECMWF solution maintains decent rain chances across the
north, while the GFS forms more of a stronger mid-latitude cyclone
and quickly sweeps the front through the area Friday morning. Have
maintained the PoP`s for now, given the uncertainty and the distance
into the future.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the waffling of the frontal
boundary, but have highs reaching the 70s mid week south of the
front, perhaps as far north as Peoria by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR conditions expected through tonight. Main concern this period
will be with the gusty southwest winds expected from 15z-22z today
as high pressure shifts south of the region. Forecast soundings
suggest some deep mixing occurring later this morning into the
afternoon hours with a few gusts out of the southwest up to 27kts
possible, especially along the I-74 corridor TAF locations (PIA,
BMI and CMI). Southwest winds are expected to diminish by late
this afternoon with speeds in the 6 to 11 kts this evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY. A VERY HEAVY BUT NARROW BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THESE AREAS, ALONG AND SOUTH OF A EASTON TO
MILLINOCKET LINE BUT NORTHWEST OF HOULTON. A NWS EMPLOYEE UNDER
THIS BAND REPORTED ACCUMULATION OF 5 INCHES ALREADY AND EXPECT
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS BAND EXITS INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE QUICK
AS SATELLITE IR ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RACING
NE AND ALREADY CLEARING NH AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
BANDING SETTING UP OVER NE AROOSTOOK AND N PENOBSCOT COUNTY
W/SNOW UNDER THIS BAND AND RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST SOUTH OF
IT(MARS HILL HAD -RA). 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES MOVING
FAST INTO THE GULF MAINE AND A FEW HRS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWED. ANOTHER AREA OF BANDING WAS SHOWING UP ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ATTM, LATEST REPORTS INDICATE
AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW W/MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION BEING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING
WITH THE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
SNOWFALL TOTAL TO EDGE IT FURTHER N ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE
6-8 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBOU-
PRESQUE ISLE INTO N PENOBSCOT AND SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO CHANGE OVER W/RAIN
AND THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING WITH THE COAST
BEING THE LAST TO CHANGE OVER. A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY W/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM
1000-700MBS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE 03Z RAP MODEL WHICH WAS
HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL. BANDING SETTING UP PER THE CBW RADAR
UNDER THIS FORCING AND IS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL TO EXPAND INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN EXPAND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL WAS IN LINE W/THIS SETUP. SNOWFALL
RATES 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
UNDER THAT BANDING FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW RATIOS OF >/= 15:1
IN THOSE BANDS COULD DEFINITELY TIP SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 7 " OR SO.
ATTM, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH ACROSS
NORTH- CENTRAL MAINE BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER S TOWARD THE DOVER-FOXCROFT & LINCOLN REGION, RAIN/SNOW
MIX EARLY WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS BEFORE GOING TO ALL SNOW. THE
BANGOR-BAR HARBOR WILL HANG ON TO RAIN LONGER AS TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S UNTIL THE LOW PASSES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY AND THEN
A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED W/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES W/THE SNOW ENDING BY
AROUND 00Z(8 PM) AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. VERY COLD
AIR FOR EARLY APRIL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
W/CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF, TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY DAYBREAK EASTER SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO SEE SINGLE NUMBERS W/A FRESH SNOW COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHISKS THROUGH THE CROWN OF MAINE ON
EASTER SUNDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS CONTROL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER EASTERN MAINE. DISTURBANCES
WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. VERY COLD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE. SOME RIDGING
MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A
WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR
ALL OF EASTERN MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RAPIDLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AND THEN IFR.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD LIFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. RAIN GOING TO SNOW FOR KBGR
AND KBHB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BY THE EVENING TO VFR
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SKIES CLEAR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBHB AND
KBGR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
AND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT W/WINDS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STAYED
W/GUSTS APCHG 40 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-6 FT
ATTM WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TEH EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE,
HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT W/THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 6 TO 9 FEET AND
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SOME RISES ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS W/THE MOST NOTICEABLE RISES
AND ICE MOVEMENT SHOWN ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS,
BUT STILL WELL W/IN THEIR BANKS. THE RISES WERE DUE TO THE MELTING
THAT TOOK PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR A TIME UNTIL
THE COOLDOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED DOWN AND HALTED BY THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR TAKES
PLACE IN EARNEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS
TODAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
005-006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001-
003-004-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/OKULSKI
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A STARK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL EXIST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION.
EXPECT SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96... BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND WET SNOW TO THE NORTH.
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE WET AND UNSETTLED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-96... FOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FORECAST... BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS IS STILL UNCLEAR.
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL MN TO SE LWR MI AND A JET
STREAK WILL FUEL A POTENTIALLY INTENSE BUT NARROW BAND OF FGEN SNOW
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB REGION. WHILE HIGHER
RES MODEL QPF PROGS ARE CLEARLY RESPONDING TO THE STRONG FGEN
RESPONSE... THEY ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AMOUNT OF THE
HIGHER QPF.
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM
LUDINGTON TO REED CITY TO MT PLEASANT... BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS TO BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH NOW GO OUT TO 09Z ARE SUGGESTING A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA NORTH
OF I-96 MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY RAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT. P TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF A
BIG RAPIDS TO MT PLEASANT LINE.
MEANWHILE SOUTH OF I-96 ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT MILD SPRING
LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FRONT SHOULD SAG A BIT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT...WITH GULF ORIGINS.
A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER WHERE A DRIER...COOLER FEED OF AIR WILL BE PULLED IN
ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AS WE AWAIT AN UPPER LOW
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY THE LOW WILL BE PIVOTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
COULD EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS I-94.
OVERALL A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...VERY SPRING LIKE. WE
WILL BE MONITORING FORECAST TRENDS IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT
23Z. WINDS WILL TAIL OFF TO BELOW 9 KNOTS AFTER 01Z.
MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE
10000FT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 96 TAF SITES WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. CLOUD
BASES AT THESE SITES...KGRR...KMKG AND KLAN WILL DIP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WILL THE VISIBILITIES WITH TIME.
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES ALONG INTERSTATE 94 SHOULD STAY VFR WITH
THE PRECIPITATION MISSING THEM TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY FOR MUCH OF
THE NEARSHORE AREA AS WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF MKG AS A FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE UP TO
AROUND HALF AN INCH. THIS ONE EVENT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
AREA RIVERS...BUT THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE
A WET ONE. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. RIVER STREAMFLOW PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...BUT SOME RIVERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. WPC 7-DAY QPF INDICATES THE KALAMAZOO BASIN AND
HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-051-052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO THE SAGINAW
VALLEY/THUMB REGION ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID LEVEL THETA E PLUME
AND WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG 280-290K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS PROVEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS PRECIP FREE ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. THE INCREASING TRENDS
NOTED ON THE RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE
FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE THUMB REGION SHORTLY AFTER
21Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A PEAK IN WIND
SPEEDS EARLY THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. A
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF
COOLING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM... OVERNIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT A FASTER PACE THAN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
COMPLEX OVER QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATES EASTWARD. LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UNBALANCED
INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS POCKET OF MORE ENERGETIC FLOW
WILL IMPINGE INTO THE PRE-EXISTING...BUT RATHER FLAT...THETA-E
GRADIENT IN THE 925-600MB LAYER DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FORCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
WILL FORCE SATURATION TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE LOOSELY DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE. THE SATURATION WILL QUICKLY CATALYZE THE THETA-E FIELD INTO A
MUCH BETTER DEFINED STRUCTURE. THE RAPID MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL FORCE
A NARROW...YET ROBUST...AGEOSTROPHIC SECONDARY VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE NWP SUITE PRESENTS THIS DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN ABNORMALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLUTION
VARIANCE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTOGENETIC
STRUCTURE.
AVAILABLE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE WILL DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF THE
INITIAL SATURATION AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG FRONTOGENTIC RESPONSE.
THE REPRESENTATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THE SOURCE OF THE NWP
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE. THE 04.12Z NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A FARTHER SOUTH MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTION.
HOWEVER...THE NAM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY 8F TOO MOIST IN THE
SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CMC FAMILY...
GFS...AND LATEST ECMWF ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND LESS AMPLIFIED -
BUT STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
THE RAP AND HRRR SEQUENCE HAS BEEN STEADY WITH AN EVEN FARTHER NORTH
DEPICTION AND IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER PWAT ESTIMATES. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION DEPICTION...SATURATION OCCURS IN THE SUB-FREEZING PORTION
OF BOUNDARY STRUCTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING SNOW TO DOMINATE THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXTURE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES WHERE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION...REDUCED WET
BULBING...AND PARTIAL SATURATION ALLOW FOR SOME LIQUID DEVELOP.
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LATERAL MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
ONCE IT INITIATES. CONSEQUENTLY...APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
BECOMES A CONCERN. THE REGION OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS IS ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS /WHERE
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED/. FARTHER SOUTH...
DURATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRACTS
DUE TO THE LACK OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PRESENTED FORCING IN
THE CONTEXT OF MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG AND ROUGHLY AN 8 HOUR
DURATION...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IS IN THE 2-3+ INCH
RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THUS
CONVERTING THE SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE ALSO SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NEAR THE OHIO
BORDER TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGIONS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SO
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM - PWATS SURGE TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES. THE
COLUMN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS IS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ALL RAIN. THE EMERGENCE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM COLLAPSES THE NEAR
SURFACE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY COLDER
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ICING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE OVERALL DEPICTION...SO WILL
RESERVE JUDGMENT AT THE MOMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR CONTINUAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR A SHORT TIME. LATEST
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE CWA IN TERMS OF
OVERALL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN ACCOUNT BUT
OVERALL... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AREAS WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MIXED PTYPES.
&&
.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS/ ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE HURON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS LOWER MI ON
SUNDAY...LEAVING A GENERAL WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE HURON...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TUES INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1252 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015
A REGION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADVANCING INTO
SE MI BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD...PRECEDING A FAST MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME...THE
PROBABILITIES OF THESE SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LOOKS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE EXCEPTION IS MBS WHERE FORCING WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE A LITTLE MORE PLENTIFUL. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH
/FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND 21Z/. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS MIXING DEPTHS GROW DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING W-SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO OR IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE A BRIEF /LESS THAN 20 MINUTE/
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
FOR DTW...WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS INCREASE. WINDS WILL PEEK AROUND 21Z ALONG JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ONSET OF NIGHTTIME COOLING THIS
EVENING WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN SPEEDS BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....MANN/SS
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
907 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES FOR TODAY TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT HRRR OUTPUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONE WAS TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ALSO THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ARE MOVING EAST
TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST...COAST RANGE AND PARTS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST IN CENTRAL B.C. WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND IMPACT OUR WEATHER STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPIATION REACHING THE COAST
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE
A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH AT NIGHT IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. CURRENTLY THERE IS
A FREEZE WATCH FOR THIS AREA IN THE EVENT THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL
MID MORNING WITH TERRAIN AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. CIGS WILL
THEN SCATTER OUT AS MID LEVELS DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL AS
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXTEND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WITH TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. /FB
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY 04 APR 2015...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BECOME STEEP AND REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST, WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVEL. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES, THUS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRUNG OUT ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MOST OF THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL VARIETY. WE`RE LOOKING AT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR A SHOWER HERE OR
THERE...MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN THE COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE/NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS WELL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTIONS OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH
EASTER SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A COOL, SHOWERY PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PVA IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH THERE TO PRODUCE SNOW DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN
MANY AREAS, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST AN INCH
OR TWO. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO MOVE ONTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST SIDE SUNDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT (-30 TO
-33C AT 500 MB) ARRIVES. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GRAUPEL/SMALL
HAIL JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AN AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW ON THE MAJOR PASSES OF I-5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RIGHT
NOW, AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY,
BUT THOSE TRAVELING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
WE`LL GET A SHORT BREAK LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE FIRST
SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH
CLEARING, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH IN PORTIONS OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS RISK AT NPWMFR.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST OREGON/NW CALIFORNIA COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT MAY PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT
APPEARS TO DO A LOOP JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY CATCHES UP AND DIGS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS STILL A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ADVANCEMENT OF A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...GIVING MOUNT SHASTA CITY A 6-12 HOUR SHOT OF VERY
HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
BULLISH, SO HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW. WE ARE STILL SHOWING
ABOUT 6 INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR MOUNT SHASTA
CITY, SO WINTER HEADLINES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
EVENT. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO STEADIER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE OR/CA BORDER, BUT WE STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
MONDAY. GRADIENTS ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG, BUT THERE IS A PERIOD
OF INCREASED 700 MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THAT MAY LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS NEAR WEED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
KEEPING THE SHOWERY PATTERN GOING, BUT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EASE AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT DECREASE.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
AREA. COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST. NE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY TODAY AND TURN SE
TOMORROW. EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. IN OTHER WORDS TEMPS WON`T BUDGE MUCH
FROM CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT. OVERALL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
PRECIP BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY OVERCAST MORNING WILL IMPROVE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
..PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCANSIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
MORNING LINE OF NORTHERN PRECIPITATION FOCUSING ON THE MID-LEVEL
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH ANTICIPATED WEST-SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES MOVING UP INTO EASTERN TEXAS`S MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF WHAT MAY BECOME THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WARM FRONT. HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST. EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN TODAY`S FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS NORTHERN ACTIVITY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE ARE WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SOME POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PATTERN. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
THEN A WARM UP IS STILL ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BE ENTERING
OUR AREA IN A FRIDAY- SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT MIGHT END UP
BEING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. 42
MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT...CAUTION WINDS OVER THE LOCAL BAYS AND ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE GULF. STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WEAKENING AND VEERING ONSHORE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE PATTERN OF EASTERN U.S HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWERED TEXAS PANHANDLE PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLIES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...OVER AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT
NEARSHORE - 4 TO 5 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 56 74 65 82 / 20 40 40 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 57 76 66 82 / 20 30 40 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 65 76 68 76 / 20 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39