Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
909 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
DROP IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KVEL EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY ALSO INDICATED AT
KASE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY DRIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED AND NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS. HRRR HINTING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING SO MAY DRAG POPS
OUT A BIT LONGER ON NEXT UPDATE. FINALLY...SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY DELAY THE FREEZING TEMPS
A BIT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. HOWEVER...ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS AND CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS THROUGH ALL BUT THE SAN JUAN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE JET WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER NW-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW VARIABILITY BUT
STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-5 INCHES NEAR THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
THE STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE WAINING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE IN SW
COLORADO AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BUT FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL FLOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. A FLAT RIDGE WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AND ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WESTERLY FLOW MODERATE TO STRONG.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEST AS THE
WESTERN LOW DROPS TO A POSITION OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA BY LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT....WHICH WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. THE FLOW STILL REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG SO GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS STAY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON WED INTO
THU...WITH THE NORTH FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A LINE FROM KHDN-KEGE-
KGUC THROUGH 10Z WITH OCNL MTN OBSCURATION. KASE AND KEGE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 050 IN VCSH MAINLY BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 03Z THEN
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
713 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT...BEFORE
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...AND
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM...ALBANY FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH MILD BREEZY CONDITIONS. ALBANY AIRPORT HAS HIT 67F TODAY.
NICE! CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST. RADAR SHOWS
NEAREST RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
PER THE HRRR AND EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS...WE WILL SPEED
UP THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WET BULB PROCESSES WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICKER
LOWERING OF TEMPS BUT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL LIQUID
EVENT.
A NARROW REGION OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MILD AND DRY FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FA LATE AT NIGHT AND AS A
RESULT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIR AND MILD DAY ON FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAY STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA SO HAVE SOME CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME ON FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE LESS
WIND THAN TODAY...FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY EVENING...TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 8 AM SATURDAY. NOT ONLY
IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW HAVE 1 TO 4 INCHES FORECAST. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FORECAST TO BE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY
SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 1 INCHES.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FA WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FRONT LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME SO HAVE CHANCE POPS
ONLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA...AND MAINLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE POLAR JET AND SOUTHERN JET OVER OUR REGION
WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED AND LIKELY WET WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF OUR REGION.
COMBINING WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSVERSE THE FRONT WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED. THIS
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF CHC-SCT POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILES AND RELATED
PRECIPITATION TYPES. CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO
STRENGTHEN AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I90 WITH NOCTURNAL COMPONENT LIKELY AIDING IN THE COOLING OF THE
THERMAL COLUMN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGION OF
FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ALONG WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THERMAL PROFILES.
AT THIS TIME...WE WILL UTILIZE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH WET BULB
PROCESSES AS ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND
LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WERE
FAST APPROACHING...HOWEVER...EVEN UPSTREAM CIGS/VIS WERE STILL IN
VFR. BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON FRIDAY BACK TO VFR WITH A NARROW REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THE STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CIGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH...AND RH AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75
PERCENT OR BETTER. A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
EVENING GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
IT WEAKENS TO 5 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO 35 TO 50
PERCENT...WITH HIGHER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE SYSTEM
STALLS...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND THE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER.
RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALMOST
OVERHEAD. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
IT WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AGAIN LATER SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE TOTAL MODELED SNOWMELT
THROUGH 100 AM ON APRIL 4TH IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. TOTAL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.6 TO 1.0 INCHES
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. FAST RESPONDING RIVERS WOULD
CREST ON SATURDAY. LARGER RIVERS WOULD CREST ON SUNDAY.
COLDER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOW SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN SOME
TIME SINCE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES THIS WARM.
ALBANY NY...
LAST TIME WAS 50+ DEGREES: DECEMBER 27, 2014 (50 DEGREES)
LAST TIME WAS 60+ DEGREES: NOVEMBER 25, 2014 (62 DEGREES)
RECORD HIGH FOR APRIL 2ND: 77 DEGREES BACK IN 2010
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
GLENS FALLS NY...
LAST TIME WAS 50+ DEGREES: DECEMBER 25, 2014 (50 DEGREES)
LAST TIME WAS 60+ DEGREES: NOVEMBER 24, 2014 (68 DEGREES)
RECORD HIGH FOR APRIL 2ND: 78 DEGREES BACK IN 2010
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY...
LAST TIME WAS 50+ DEGREES: MARCH 30, 2015 (51 DEGREES)
LAST TIME WAS 60+ DEGREES: MARCH 11, 2015 (60 DEGREES)
RECORD HIGH FOR APRIL 2ND: 79 DEGREES BACK IN 1963
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JAN 1993 - JULY 2000
BENNINGTON VT...
LAST TIME WAS 50+ DEGREES: MARCH 26, 2015 (50 DEGREES)
LAST TIME WAS 60+ DEGREES: DECEMBER 25, 2014 (64 DEGREES)
PITTSFIELD MA...
LAST TIME WAS 50+ DEGREES: DECEMBER 25, 2014 (59 DEGREES)
LAST TIME WAS 60+ DEGREES: NOVEMBER 24, 2014 (63 DEGREES)
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
CLIMATE...IAA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE... A DRY NW FLOW AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS LATE MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS FAR CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON... AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE... WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE WARMED EXPECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MVFR CIGS SPREAD IN
AROUND 05-06Z... THEN IFR BY 08-09Z TONIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CIGS TO BE SLOW SCATTERING ON
THURSDAY... BUT SHOULD SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY 19-20Z THU AS A SE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. CURRENT LIGHT NW WINDS
SHOULD SWING MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SW THIS
EVENING... THEN AROUND TO EASTERLY TONIGHT BY 06Z. SPEEDS WILL BE
6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON... AND 7-9KTS LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE
EASTERLY WINDS SET UP. EXPECT 9-12KTS ESE WINDS ON THU.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE... A DRY NW FLOW AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS LATE MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS FAR CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON... AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE... WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE WARMED EXPECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST BRIEFLY. CLEARING OUT WILL BE QUICK AND CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST BRIEFLY. CLEARING OUT WILL BE QUICK AND CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 53 72 60 / 10 20 50 40
ATLANTA 77 57 72 60 / 20 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 49 62 56 / 10 20 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 78 56 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 80 57 80 58 / 50 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 76 53 67 58 / 10 20 50 40
MACON 81 54 77 59 / 40 20 40 20
ROME 78 54 74 59 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 79 53 75 58 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 80 58 79 61 / 50 20 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE COMING WEEK AS TWO MAIN UPPER TROUGHS WITH
MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING TWO
MAIN ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER. FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF SPRING SEASON AND
BOTH THURSDAY AND MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEMS MAY BRING SEVERE STORMS.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SECOND OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING NEXT WEEK RETURNS ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND STORMS
BY MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES GRADUALLY LIFTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015
EARLY EVENING CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOUD OVER AS SHORT WAVE ALREADY
PRODUCING SCATTERED STORMS OVER SW MISSOURI HEAD THIS WAY. LOOKS
LIKE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHWEST A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY 4AM INDY
METRO. WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND WINDS REMAINING UP EXPECT LOW TEMPS
SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST THU MAR 26 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS STORM TIMING THURSDAY...ENDING OF RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND WHETHER SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTH COUNTIES FRIDAY
EVENING.
THURSDAY...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING SUGGESTING A SHORT DURATION BOUT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ENDING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NEW ROUND OF AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED NEAR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND. STEADY STATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOP 30 MPH...OR OVER IF SUN
BREAKS OUT FOR BRIEF WHILE BUT THAT NOT ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
PERIODS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND GOING ALONG WITH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. SEVERE THREAT
DOES EXIST BUT IS MARGINAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
COUPLED WITH NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDS
EARLY EVENING WHILE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE IN FRONTAL LIFT ZONE MAY CARRY
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS
MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING OVER
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDER THREAT WOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
VALLEY. GENERAL ONE THIRD INCH RAIN FALLS IN CHILLY AIR THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS OUT...ENDING RAIN EARLY
EVENING WEST AND LATE EVENING EAST. SKIES CLEAR ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO FROSTY LEVELS NEAR
FREEZING.
SATURDAY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOT THE SKIES BY AFTERNOON AND
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW WARMER AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ARRIVING.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW REACHES OF INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT
HINT AT IT BEING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 01/2100 TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE 21Z TAF UPDATE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF GUSTS TO
15 KTS AT KIND UNTIL SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...THEN A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SOME PASSING CI TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALSO.
LATE TONIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE TAF SITES WITH THE
MOISTURE...PROVIDING FORCING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WITH CCL VALUES NEAR
1300 FT. HRRR PROJECTS RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EITHER VCSH OR -RA MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/LEE
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...ONLY THE LATEST HI RES RAP WAS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING
THE RATE OF FALL...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE OTHER
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE FORECAST.
IN-COMING HIGH THIN CLOUDS IN THE NW FLOW OUT OF THE PLAINS AND A
WEAK SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL TOWARD SUNRISE. AHEAD OF
THIS...WILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND HAVE THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER MINS TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SW SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID 40S. SOME VALLEY SITES IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.
PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.
THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS OR STRONGER BY
LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
EARLIEST...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE BRL...CID AND DBQ TERMINALS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AFTER
THE 06Z TAF ENDING PERIOD AND THUS NOT INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20
KTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
853 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO CANCEL THE DUST STORM WARNING
AND TO ADJUST WORDING IN FORECAST TO SHOW MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN ZONES AS TEMPS NOW IN LOW 30S...BUT KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL WARM
ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
832 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN WESTERN ZONES. ALSO DECREASED
MENTION OF THUNDER HERE AS WELL. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
735 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATED ZONES TO ISSUE DUST STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING HERE AT NWS GOODLAND. ANOTHER UPDATE
FORTHCOMING SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
641 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS WHERE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING. MOST OF FORECAST IS INTACT AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO
KEEP THUNDER IN FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
952 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10PM UPDATE...CONTINUE TO ADJUST POPS AS SHOWERS REFIRE ALONG COLD
FRONT. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...OPTED TO KEEP POPS HIGH. THERE IS A BIT OF
CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT IS
FILLED IN WITH MORE CONVECTION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN THE WIND AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30MPH TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI RES DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING TOWARD
THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
QPF WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND RIDES
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER JET MAXIMA SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM AND STALL. LIKEWISE...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RIBBON OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH PWATS FEEDING UP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY`S FIRST PUSH INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
PULLS EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT LINGERS IN OR NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE AREA...A COUPLE MORE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS A
RESULT.
THE NEXT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONE WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIKELY TO RUN UP
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST PUSH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH DEEPER DYNAMICAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT RAIN
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS WELL.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY ABRUPT LAYER TEMPERATURE
FALLS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DEFORMATION LIFT REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAST SURFACE WAVE...AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
TO STILL WORK WITH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD...HOWEVER IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ABRUPT ENDING TO THE
WARM AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PRECEDE IT.
COLDER AND QUICKLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
WARMER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST...NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...STALLING OUT NEAR
THE MASON/DIXON LINE BY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FOG IS FORECAST AS WELL. SOME ROUNDS OF SHRA WILL
MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. CONTINUED TO TRY TO
HANDLE THE HEAVIER OF THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN THE
MORE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS START TO DEPART.
TOMORROW MORNING...FKL/DUJ WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z
OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MOST OTHER TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
THE FINAL RESTING SPOT OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHRA. MUCH
OF THE RAIN FROM THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
749 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730PM UPDATE...
BIGGEST HEADACHE OVERNIGHT IS DEALING WITH POPS AND SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR...MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRIFTING FRONT...IS
REDUCING THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS IS THE HARD
PART...TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE AND HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH. POPS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...OPTED TO KEEP POPS HIGH. THERE IS A BIT OF
CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT IS
FILLED IN WITH MORE CONVECTION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN THE WIND AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30MPH TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI RES DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING TOWARD
THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
QPF WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND RIDES
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER JET MAXIMA SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM AND STALL. LIKEWISE...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RIBBON OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH PWATS FEEDING UP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY`S FIRST PUSH INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
PULLS EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT LINGERS IN OR NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE AREA...A COUPLE MORE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS A
RESULT.
THE NEXT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONE WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIKELY TO RUN UP
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST PUSH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH DEEPER DYNAMICAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT RAIN
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS WELL.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY ABRUPT LAYER TEMPERATURE
FALLS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DEFORMATION LIFT REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAST SURFACE WAVE...AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
TO STILL WORK WITH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD...HOWEVER IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ABRUPT ENDING TO THE
WARM AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PRECEDE IT.
COLDER AND QUICKLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
WARMER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST...NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST OHIO.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...STALLING OUT NEAR
THE MASON/DIXON LINE BY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DROP
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME FOG IS FORECAST AS WELL. SOME ROUNDS OF SHRA WILL
MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. CONTINUED TO TRY TO
HANDLE THE HEAVIER OF THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN THE
MORE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS START TO DEPART.
TOMORROW MORNING...FKL/DUJ WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z
OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MOST OTHER TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
THE FINAL RESTING SPOT OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHRA. MUCH
OF THE RAIN FROM THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
730PM UPDATE...
BIGGEST HEADACHE OVERNIGHT IS DEALING WITH POPS AND SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL SWING THROUGH AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD. DRIER AIR...MOVING IN BEHIND THE DRIFTING FRONT...IS
REDUCING THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS IS THE HARD
PART...TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HAVE AND HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH. POPS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PER THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...OPTED TO KEEP POPS HIGH. THERE IS A BIT OF
CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT IS
FILLED IN WITH MORE CONVECTION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN THE WIND AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30MPH TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI RES DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING TOWARD
THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
QPF WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND RIDES
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER JET MAXIMA SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM AND STALL. LIKEWISE...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RIBBON OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH PWATS FEEDING UP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY`S FIRST PUSH INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
PULLS EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT LINGERS IN OR NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE AREA...A COUPLE MORE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS A
RESULT.
THE NEXT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONE WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIKELY TO RUN UP
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST PUSH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH DEEPER DYNAMICAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT RAIN
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS WELL.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY ABRUPT LAYER TEMPERATURE
FALLS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DEFORMATION LIFT REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAST SURFACE WAVE...AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
TO STILL WORK WITH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD...HOWEVER IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ABRUPT ENDING TO THE
WARM AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PRECEDE IT.
COLDER AND QUICKLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
WARMER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE
THE BULK OF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...OPTED TO CARRY THESE AS TEMPO
GROUPS AND AMEND AS NEEDED FOR THUNDER WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY PRESENT.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH A MENTION AT EVERY TAF LOCATION
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TAF SITES BY MORNING AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WITH THE NEXT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.
A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.
CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
751 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A
NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PCT) WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL
IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
PER PAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER WI WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 250-300
MB JET MAX E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/NAM MODEL BLEND AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SCNTRL UPPER MI. HAVE DECIDED TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA RANGING FROM LESS THAN .10
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TO NEAR .20 INCH AT KMNM. GIVEN
NEAR 10 TO 1 SLR/S EXPECTED COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS JUST INLAND
FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI AND OVER THE FAR EAST.
MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE NRN LAKES MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MOST OF THE MODELS ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MON AS A CONFLUENT FLOW INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE
DOMINANT SFC RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES. ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF
WILL BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MI LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN CWA.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM ITS
PREV COUPLE OF RUNS. AFTER SHOWING STRONGER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON INTO TUE...IT THEN EJECTS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS TROF NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE WED INTO THU. IN TURN...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI THAN PREV RUNS. THIS
SOLN BRINGS AN AREA OF WAA PCPN INTO UPPER MI MAINLY WED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THU. ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PCPN COULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE IF MODEL TRENDS WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A WETTER FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS BOTH THE GFS
AND GEM-NH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS SHOWING A SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 30-40KT AT KIWD AND KCMX WILL DIMINISH MID TO
LATE EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST AT KIWD. AT KSAW...WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME DECOUPLED FROM LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX SHIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERAL HRS OF LLWS.
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN NRN MN/ADJACENT
NRN ONTARIO. COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AT
KIWD/KCMX LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRYING FRI WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE
AFTN. MVFR CIGS AT KSAW MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL FRI EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
541 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL FACILITATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT A LINE TO
FILL IN FROM NEAR KRWF TO BETWEEN KSTC AND KMSP BY 00Z...AND
EXPAND EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS THE
EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. PREVALENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY /WHEN MVFR VSBYS
WOULD OCCUR/. IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THEN SCATTERING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
KMSP...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF MSP BY 00Z...WITH
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SITE EXPECTED BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT VSBYS COULD DIP TO MVFR WITH
THE TS ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 45KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 15-20KTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
20S.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STRONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTRICTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.
ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR IN
STRATUS AND FOG...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER INLAND. WE FOLLOWED
THE RAP THIS MORNING REGARDING THE STRATUS...AND IT SHOWS IT
DIMINISHING AT KDLH 14-15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
WITH THAT TIMING THOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MOVING ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF STRONG WAA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE
CONFINED THE POPS TO KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AS MOST AGREES ON KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS DRY.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN THEY WILL VEER
TO MORE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 41 60 24 / 20 20 10 10
INL 65 40 53 19 / 20 10 30 20
BRD 70 38 57 24 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 66 43 61 26 / 50 60 0 0
ASX 64 44 63 28 / 40 50 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BETTER
MIXING AIDS IN CLOUDS LIFTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/N OF
I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY DUE TO UPPER S/WV MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH AND E OF
THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO AID IN SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY...WITH ARW INDICATING MORE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN N/NE MS AFTER 21Z. HRRR IS NOT INDICATING AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SO LOWERED POPS ALONG/N OF I-20 BUT
DUE TO SOME WEAKENING CAPPING AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...POPS/WX
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IN A STRONG STORM OR SO. BUT WITH HRRR BACKING OFF ON ACTIVITY AND
SOME CAPPING LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEPT HWO CLEAR. TEMPS
LOOK GOOD AS WE WILL MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND WARM NICELY.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES BECOMING VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH/GWO/GTR. THE
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH. THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.
WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.
NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 63 83 65 / 19 14 24 10
MERIDIAN 80 61 82 63 / 20 14 21 14
VICKSBURG 81 64 84 65 / 18 14 27 11
HATTIESBURG 84 64 84 64 / 8 10 16 8
NATCHEZ 81 64 83 65 / 10 12 25 10
GREENVILLE 78 63 81 66 / 29 28 44 14
GREENWOOD 79 62 81 65 / 29 26 41 14
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/15/19/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Tonight - Thursday:
In the very near term an area of convection tied to a pesky MCV over
southwestern MO is expected to track northeast and graze the far
southeast CWA through early evening. Have increased PoPs over this
region to account for this.
Attention then turns back to the west and northwest and focuses on
two areas...the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western
KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible
satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts
baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture taking its time to arrive.
Latest NAM/RAP suggest CIN may not be eroded till closer to 00Z.
Still expect a line of convection to form this evening with the
front sliding east-southeast overnight. This activity expected to
reach far northwest MO towards midnight and then continue across
northern MO. Second area being watched is the KS accas and 12z NAM
defined a h7 shortwave/vorticity max that will move out of CO this
evening. Last several runs of the convective allowing HRRR generates
an expanding area of elevated convection which tracks east
overnight, crossing the KS/MO border after midnight. 18z NAM qpf
hints at this convection but delays the arrival till after 09z. Will
side towards the HRRR for now.
While the severe threat will be greatly muted due to its arrival
time and minimal instability some generous qpf is possible over our
northern and western counties. The latter due to the southerly low
level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which
could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
Convection likely to exit the CWA quickly from west to east
Thursday morning. However, model consensus indicates the front will
stall just south of the CWA, close enough that low chance afternoon
PoPs necessary across the far southern counties to account for
potential late afternoon redevelopment.
Thursday night - Friday night:
The aforementioned stalled front will likely remain just south of
the CWA during this period. However, post frontal stratiform or weak
elevated convective rains are likely north of the boundary Thursday
night into Friday morning. An upper level trough is progged to shift
eastward within a pseudo westerly flow with pieces of energy
ejecting ahead of it through the Central Plains. This should allow
for some isentropically induced rain to form and affect most of the
CWA. The rain chances will end by Friday afternoon with the passage
of the trough axis. Temperatures will be on the cool side and hover
in the 50s all day.
Clearing skies, light winds and cool high pressure will probably
send Sat morning lows to freezing or below.....with a good chance
for a frost.
Saturday - Sunday:
Should be a rather benign weekend with weak ridging aloft
translating eastward and surface pressure falls across the plains
generating a southerly breeze. Should be a very pleasant weekend
with above average temperatures.
Sunday night - Wednesday:
Looks like an unsettled pattern. Southwesterly flow sets up with the
passage of the upper ridge allowing for increasing moist warm air
advection. Considerable model uncertainty on PoPs and timing of the
next cold front. GFS is much faster and brings a cold front through
Monday night in response to a fast moving shortwave coming out of
the desert southwest on Monday whereas the 12z ECMWF shows no sign
of this wave...maybe A poor reflection by 12z Tuesday. In any event,
there is the potential for a couple pieces of weak energy to be
embedded within the southwesterly flow and give us a chance for some
convection. Temperatures are likely to remain above average for the
first part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Scattered convection over southwest MO will move into parts of west
central and much of central MO after 19z and last into the early
evening hours. Generally VFR ceilings except briefly MVFR with the
strong storms.
Gusty southerly winds into early evening. Winds veer to the northwest
with passage of cold front after midnight.
Otherwise, will delay arrival of line of convection associated with
approaching cold front by a few more hours with activity crossing
into far northwest MO after midnight. Strongest storms/heaviest
precipitation should be across northern MO with activity becoming
more scattered and less intense to the southwest. Line should weaken
as it shifts southeast into west central and central MO towards
sunrise. MVFR ceilings most likely with the convection, probably
several hours of IFR over northern MO. Precipitation will end from
west to east by late morning with ceilings improving to VFR by mid
morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.
FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.
DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THRU ABOUT 00Z...THEN
BECOMING MVFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU 06Z. STORMS MOVE
EAST OF KOMA AND KLNK 06Z-10Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-015-017-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. WINDS ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING...AND CLEAR SKY IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. BY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S (ISOLATED
AREAS MAY EVEN GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RAP TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RAP AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
WINDS NOW NW AT ALL TAF SITES...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
856 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS THAT
EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SW OHIO. BLYR CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACRS ILN/S FOR NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH
LOSS OF INSTBY THIS WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES
BY LATE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...THE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FLOOD ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S FAR NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH 04Z ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BEFORE A GENERAL WEAKENING/REFOCUS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT 00Z OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN AND WINDS
DECREASE...SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AMIDST HIGH MOISTURE
AIRMASS. INSIDE SHOWERS/STORMS...EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE CIGS PULL CLOSE
TO AND BELOW IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. LIKELY TO GET A LULL IN THE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE SITES
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM EJECTING TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SPELL RENEWED SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL AXIS OF STORMS MOVING THRU ILN/S SRN FA. IN WAKE OF THIS
AXIS OF STORMS SEVERE THREAT HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED.
HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS SRN INDIANA WHERE BLYR CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SVR CHANCES. CAN NOT RULE OUT PSBL ISOLD
SVR OVER OUR SW COUNTIES BUT THIS WINDOW DIMINISHES BY LATE
EVENING WITH INSTBY BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
FLOOD SIGNAL ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY THROUGH 04Z ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BEFORE A GENERAL WEAKENING/REFOCUS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE LATER PART OF THE NIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AT 00Z OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN AND WINDS
DECREASE...SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER AMIDST HIGH MOISTURE
AIRMASS. INSIDE SHOWERS/STORMS...EXPECT MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE CIGS PULL CLOSE
TO AND BELOW IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. LIKELY TO GET A LULL IN THE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE SITES
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM EJECTING TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SPELL RENEWED SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...BINAU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF FLIGHT IMPACTS BEING FROM SE OK INTO
WESTERN AR. CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING AND LOW STRATUS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ORIGINATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THIS REGION. LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE
ONGOING LINE COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
DECREASING WITH TIME. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER MCS IS OCCURRING
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE
RADAR PRESENTATION AND TRENDS...LIKELY THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THINKING THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STORMS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM TULSA TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY GET CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.
THIS BRINGS US TO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF
AN INCREASING CAP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LATER. BOTH
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. TORNADOES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY LOW...BUT THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER IN WHATEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 80 56 / 30 10 30 70
FSM 79 63 80 64 / 40 30 20 40
MLC 81 65 83 61 / 30 20 20 30
BVO 82 62 78 48 / 40 20 30 70
FYV 76 62 74 59 / 40 20 30 60
BYV 76 61 75 60 / 40 20 30 70
MKO 79 63 80 59 / 30 10 20 50
MIO 80 63 75 53 / 40 20 30 70
F10 79 64 81 59 / 30 10 20 50
HHW 79 64 81 64 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
319 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ORIGINATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THIS REGION. LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE
ONGOING LINE COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
DECREASING WITH TIME. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER MCS IS OCCURRING
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE
RADAR PRESENTATION AND TRENDS...LIKELY THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THINKING THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STORMS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM TULSA TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY GET CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.
THIS BRINGS US TO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF
AN INCREASING CAP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LATER. BOTH
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. TORNADOES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY LOW...BUT THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER IN WHATEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 80 56 / 30 10 30 70
FSM 79 63 80 64 / 40 30 20 40
MLC 81 65 83 61 / 30 20 20 30
BVO 82 62 78 48 / 20 20 30 70
FYV 76 62 74 59 / 40 20 30 60
BYV 76 61 75 60 / 40 20 30 70
MKO 79 63 80 59 / 30 10 20 50
MIO 80 63 75 53 / 30 20 30 70
F10 79 64 81 59 / 30 10 20 50
HHW 79 64 81 64 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BECAME ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT COMPARED TO LARGE HAIL. THINK STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...HOWEVER A FEW MORE SEVERE REPORTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 07Z.
OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 09-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS DECREASING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-18Z...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT NEAR THE TWO CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS.
DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT.
TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN CLUSTER MAY MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER WILL AFFECT LAWTON AND
PERHAPS WICHITA FALLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL...THINK
THE CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THINK A HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY HAIL SMALLER THAN GOLF BALLS AND MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND AROUND 60 MPH.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.
THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.
THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
021-022-032.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WILL AFFECT CRP AND/OR VCT TAF SITES. SLIGHT CHANCE COULD GET SOME
STORMS NEAR ALI...BUT LRD SHOULD BE OUT OF THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES
FOR THE DAY. TONIGHT EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH VERY
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE REGION. WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING WITH AN
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WEBB MOVING INTO MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. HAVE AT TIMES SEEM STRONGER STORM CELLS WITHIN
THIS...AND WITH CURRENT LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROFILES THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE. MAIN ISSUE WITH STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL.
SOME MESO MODELS WOULD TAKE THIS PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA ZONES..WHILE OTHERS WEAKEN IT BUT DEVELOP STORMS
OFFSHORE. THE HRRR WAS DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION...BUT HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SO NOT REALLY FAVORING ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
TIME. JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AFFECTING THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.
AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLEAROUND
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWER CIGS FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BRINING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER JET STREAK STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW SINKING DOWN INTO TX
PANHANDLE. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
MID/UPPER LVLS...ALONG WITH DYNAMICS OF PASSING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH IS A POTENTIAL DRY LAYER STAYING IN THE LOWER LVLS
OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING. HI-RES MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ZONAL FLOW FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE
MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS HITTING NEAR 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE ENXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 81 70 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 68 81 70 80 57 / 20 10 10 20 30
LAREDO 68 90 69 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 30
ALICE 69 85 69 86 59 / 10 10 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 67 75 70 76 61 / 20 10 10 10 30
COTULLA 65 89 66 86 57 / 10 0 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 69 83 70 85 60 / 10 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 69 76 70 76 62 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1147 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY IS PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGH LEVEL CLEARING BEGINNING OVER THE UPPER VALLEY.
MVFR FOR CIGS IS STILL PREVAILING AT BRO....AND ISOLATED LIGHT
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY FROM U.S. 281 EAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ELEVATED...AND THUS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT...LIFTING AND THINNING
IN THE AFTN. THUS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SPOTS...BUT
OVERALL...CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE OF THE LIMITING
AVIATION FACTOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION VCSH AT VALLEY AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 900 FEET AT BRO AND AROUND
1200 FEET AT T65/EBG WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO AT HRL AND MFE FOR BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS RESULTING IN BRIEF
VFR SKIES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/60/65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING WITH AN
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WEBB MOVING INTO MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. HAVE AT TIMES SEEM STRONGER STORM CELLS WITHIN
THIS...AND WITH CURRENT LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROFILES THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE. MAIN ISSUE WITH STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL.
SOME MESO MODELS WOULD TAKE THIS PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA ZONES..WHILE OTHERS WEAKEN IT BUT DEVELOP STORMS
OFFSHORE. THE HRRR WAS DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION...BUT HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SO NOT REALLY FAVORING ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
TIME. JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.
AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLEAROUND
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWER CIGS FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BRINING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER JET STREAK STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW SINKING DOWN INTO TX
PANHANDLE. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
MID/UPPER LVLS...ALONG WITH DYNAMICS OF PASSING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH IS A POTENTIAL DRY LAYER STAYING IN THE LOWER LVLS
OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING. HI-RES MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ZONAL FLOW FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE
MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS HITTING NEAR 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE ENXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 69 81 70 82 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 80 68 81 70 80 / 50 20 10 10 20
LAREDO 85 68 90 69 91 / 30 10 0 10 10
ALICE 82 69 85 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 67 75 70 76 / 30 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 83 65 89 66 86 / 60 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 81 69 83 70 85 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 69 76 70 76 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION VCSH AT VALLEY AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 900 FEET AT BRO AND AROUND
1200 FEET AT T65/EBG WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO AT HRL AND MFE FOR BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS RESULTING IN BRIEF
VFR SKIES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 71 79 71 / 20 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 81 70 81 71 / 20 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 83 70 83 71 / 20 10 0 0
MCALLEN 85 71 87 71 / 20 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 69 75 70 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BIRCHFIELD-65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.
STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...AIDED
BY A TRANSITING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE
RED RIVER WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE...AND WILL
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE NORTH DEPARTURE CORRIDOR BY MORNING
OPERATIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING A LLJ WEAKER THAN THE FWS VWP OUTPUT
OF 40-45KTS AT 2KFT AGL AND UP. THE OKLAHOMA STORMS SHOULD SUSTAIN
A POTENT LLJ DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HELPING TO PULL MVFR
STRATUS INTO ALL TAF SITES BEFORE DAWN. THERE SHOULD BE LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES
THAT THIS DECK IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS.
STILL EXPECT DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL BE THE LAST TO SCATTER
WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM
MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK.
AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CHIHUAHUA AND THE TRANS-PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR WACO...APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EARLIER
IN THE DAY...PRIMARILY SHOWERS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
STILL TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL MENTION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LATE
AFTERNOON WINDOW OF VCTS FOR METROPLEX SITES.
STRATUS WILL RETURN EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
INTO ALL TAFS.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.
OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
WACO, TX 65 78 64 86 66 / 20 30 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 62 79 63 79 65 / 30 30 40 10 20
DENTON, TX 64 81 64 88 64 / 20 30 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 63 81 64 83 65 / 20 30 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 66 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 81 64 83 66 / 10 30 40 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 64 80 64 82 66 / 10 40 40 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 64 78 64 85 66 / 20 40 30 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 84 63 93 63 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
744 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK WITH SNOWFALL ENDING LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE ALREADY DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...THE LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
INTO COLORADO AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DECREASED POP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND I80 SUMMIT.
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED ON THE I80 SUMMIT...BUT ROADS ARE SNOW
COVERED IN A FEW AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01-02Z THIS
EVENING FOR KCYS AND KLAR. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE SNOWFALL RATES NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL 03Z. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR
KLAR AND KCYS THOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01-02Z THIS
EVENING FOR KCYS AND KLAR. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE SNOWFALL RATES NOT
DIMINISHING UNTIL 03Z. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR
KLAR AND KCYS THOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO AS COLDER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
DROP IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KVEL EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY ALSO INDICATED AT
KASE WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY DRIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED AND NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELDS. HRRR HINTING SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING SO MAY DRAG POPS
OUT A BIT LONGER ON NEXT UPDATE. FINALLY...SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT MAY DELAY THE FREEZING TEMPS
A BIT FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. HOWEVER...ONCE THE CLOUDS DEPART...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR
A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS AND CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS THROUGH ALL BUT THE SAN JUAN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LEFT
EXIT QUADRANT OF THE JET WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER NW-
WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHOW VARIABILITY BUT
STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOW OF 2-5 INCHES NEAR THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
THE STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE WAINING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE IN SW
COLORADO AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BUT FURTHER
WEST...CLEARING SKIES AND DYING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL FLOW STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. A FLAT RIDGE WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES AND ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT A RELATIVELY TIGHT SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WESTERLY FLOW MODERATE TO STRONG.
GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEST AS THE
WESTERN LOW DROPS TO A POSITION OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA BY LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT....WHICH WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE. THE FLOW STILL REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG SO GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS STAY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THIS LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON WED INTO
THU...WITH THE NORTH FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER AT 05Z AND WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY 12Z FRI. TROUGH PASSAGE AND THEN TRAILING NW
FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
THROUGH 16Z FRI WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED. CLEARING ACROSS SE UT
AND SW CO WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRI AS FLAT UPPER
RIDGE MOVES IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LESS ON FRI.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ022-027.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS THROUGH
OUR REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...
.CURRENTLY...
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1023 MILLIBARS)
COVERING OUR REGION. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVED ACROSS OUR REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS MOVED OFFSHORE.
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WAS NOSING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DEPARTING THE ROCKIES
AND MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES. CLEARING SKIES
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
POCKETS OF RADIATION FOG TO FORM OVER OUR REGION. SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS HAVE ALSO ADVECTED SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 60-65.
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CEILINGS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA DURING
THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP SEA FOG OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN THAT SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND MAY MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BY LATE MORNING. RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TODAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S INLAND. OUR LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING W/SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHEAST FL LATE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY APRIL CLIMO.
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS DYNAMICS DEPART THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD...FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY WILL BECOME ZONAL AND WILL
WEAKEN...PRECLUDING ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA...KEEPING HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA UNTIL THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 80S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH ARE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNSET ON SATURDAY.
SAT NIGHT...COOLER TRAILING FROPA WITH DISSIPATING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS NE FL DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BREEZY NNE FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE WITH COASTAL
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
SE GA TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO INTO THE UPPER 40S.
SUN & SUN NIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WITH
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL AS THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT INLAND. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY REMAINING OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER ESE. MIN TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW/MID
60S SUN NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS STACKED
RIDGING DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA.
MON-TUE...SURFACE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND RETROGRADE
INLAND WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZES AND WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LOCAL
AREA. FOCUSED THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
(30-40%) OVER INLAND SE GA AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 MON AFTN UNDER
PREVAILING SSE STEERING FLOW. TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER RIDING
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS FL AND CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT
20% OR LESS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
LINGERING SHALLOW FORCING FROM THE DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 30% OR LESS OVER SE GA TUE
AFTN/EVENING.
WED-FRI...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STACKED MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND S GA FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION WHILE THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS NEAR THE FL-GA
STATE-LINE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. CAPPED RAIN
CHANCES AT 15% OR LESS THROUGH THU THEN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO
ONLY 20% FRI OVER SE GA AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AS
UPPER RIDING ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM AND MEAN LAYER TROUGHING EDGES IN
FROM THE WEST WITH A TRANSITION TO SSW STEERING FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S MON-TUE TO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLE INLAND WED-FRI.
LOWS WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 09Z AT THE DUVAL COUNTY AND
SSI TERMINALS...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT
JAX. PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 13Z
AT VQQ AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE BY 14Z. A
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SURFACE
WINDS FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT SSI AND CRG TOWARDS
18-19Z...AND JAX/VQQ TOWARDS 20-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH A SEA
BREEZE RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
TONIGHT...AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SURGE TO 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN SATURDAY EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...WITH
CAUTION LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL PEAK IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA
LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
CAUTION LEVEL SEAS PERSISTING NEAR SHORE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. CAUTION LEVEL SEAS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL. LOW RISK ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY...WITH AN ELEVATED
RISK RETURNING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY. BREEZY SW WINDS AND WARM TEMPS SAT AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSIONS ACROSS NE FL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 64 75 48 / 0 30 50 0
SSI 79 63 78 56 / 0 20 50 10
JAX 85 62 81 57 / 10 20 50 20
SGJ 81 63 83 61 / 10 10 50 30
GNV 85 59 84 58 / 10 10 50 20
OCF 86 60 84 60 / 10 10 50 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/ENYEDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
405 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
404 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE WESTER
PORTION OF THIS FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA...AND WILL RIPPLE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS
RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND
IOWA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS MORNING AS DEEP LAYERED FORCING INCREASES BENEATH LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 140+ KT UPPER JET STREAK AND WITHIN REGION OF HEIGHT
FALLS/VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WAVE. TRENDS IN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL
F-GEN AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY IN LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TIGHTEN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT WITH COOL FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKE(S). FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH INDICATE PROFILES
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BECOME MORE MARGINAL
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/WET SNOW MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE
CHICAGO AREA AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. SURFACE TEMPS
INITIALLY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK TO COOL INTO THE UPPER
30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE PHASED MID-LEVEL TROUGH...ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY MID-EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRAIL A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES...WITH INDICATIONS OF A SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN SAGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SQUEEZES OUT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S
SUNDAY...COOING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
404 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE UPPER PATTERN DETAILS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASING BY MID-WEEK. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS A
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS IL/IN. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN BY LATER IN THE DAY
HOWEVER AS IT IT PARALLELS THE DEEPER FLOW FIELD AND THE STRONGER
PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WHILE DETAILS DIFFER BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES
TRACK ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES EJECTING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST AND MOVES SLOWLY INLAND.
FOR THE LOCAL CWA...THIS SUPPORTS A SHARPER THAN USUAL GRADIENT
IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF OF THE LAKE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AS WAVES RIPPLE BY TO THE SOUTH...AS WELL AS A PERIODIC POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN INITIAL WAVE...THOUGH DETAILS OF TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE
SOMEWHAT AS THE PERIOD DRAWS NEAR. WHILE TEMPS ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
WOULD ALL BE IN THE FROM OF RAIN WITH PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS
INDICATING RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
* LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY WIND THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SPECIFIC
WIND DIRECTIONS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT ALSO WILL BE TIGHTENING SO GUSTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED TO THE DEWPOINTS. WITH APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND COLD
FRONT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD OR
PREVAILING FOG WILL BECOME INTO NORTHEAST IL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IL. THE HEAVIEST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW FLAKES TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN...PRECIP COULD BE ENDING BY THAT TIME AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...REMOVED PROB MIX MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIP AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS IS FAIRLY
LOW...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND GYY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR SPECIFIC HEIGHTS/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MVFR/IFR PSBL AT TIMES.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
313 AM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE WITH A
PERIOD OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THIS
EVENING THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A SECOND HIGH MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BUT CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF THIS FRONT
VARIES OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Frontal boundary stalling to the south, just north of the Ohio River
Valley this morning with plenty of convection along the boundary and
dominating the southern tier of the state. Weather in the short
term will be concentrated on the boundary, its location and the wave
moving into the region from the SW using the boundary as a focus for
more convective development. Temps today not likely to chance too
far off of where they are now, with cool air pushing into the region
from the north behind the boundary and plenty of cloud cover in
place blocking too much sunshine for most of the CWA. Exceptions
might be NW of the Illinois River Valley in patches of sun this
morning...and maybe south of Interstate 70 as the front lifts
slightly to the north by WAA to the south with the development of
the secondary low. However, the WAA will still be countered by
ongoing convective activity so significant warm up is not
anticipated. Next shortwave will reignite the convective
activity...and the better severe threat remains south of the
front...though southeastern IL is clipped by a marginal threat in
the Day One outlook from SPC. The threat is mainly large hail and
some gusty winds with the stronger storms.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Models have been consistently going back and forth with the depth of
the cold air this afternoon and into this evening. 12Z runs are
significantly colder and changing rain over to snow this
afternoon...whereas the 00Z runs are warmer longer, and not hinting
to frozen precip until maybe on the extreme back edge, around and
after 00Z this afternoon when the bulk of the precip has exited the
region. With the models also speeding up the exit...have pulled
mention before 00Z, but putting in a rain/snow mix in the extreme NE
this evening. No accumulations anticipated, but could see a flake or
two as the sunsets tonight.
Into a brief respite from the precip for the weekend...with mild
spring temps and sunshine. Breezy on Saturday in the northern two
thirds of the state, and much less of a gradient in the south and
lighter winds. Next system arriving and impacting the south on
Sunday night...NAM is slower and drier with the onset...and the GFS
faster and more expansive with the QPF. ECMWF somewhere in
between...but both ECMWF and GFS expand the precip to the north and
put Central Illinois in another wet pattern. WAA and southerly flow
sending a warm and wet airmass up into the region with a warm
frontal feature developing draped across the state. Shower activity
will most likely be off and on and not constant...but the precip
will remain somewhat heavy handed in the forecast at least through
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue overnight at all TAF sites. However,
the HRRR is forecasting the wave that is producing the storms over
central and southern MO to move across IL in the morning. Storms
currently over parts of southwest IL will stay south of the TAFs,
but pcpn is forecasted to spread northward and effect all the TAFs
during the morning and afternoon hours. The heavier pcpn should
remain south of the sites, so cigs should remain VFR, but vis may
drop with the rain to 4-5sm. Once the wave/rain moves out of the
area during the late afternoon/early evening, cigs will improve
and conditions will become VFR. Winds will be northerly through
most of the forecast period, but become northwest after the wave
moves past the area. Winds will be light overnight, but become
gusty tomorrow as the pcpn moves through, then becoming light
again tomorrow evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1233 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX AND
POSSIBLY ALL SNOW FOR AT ONE POINT.
IN THE NEAR TERM...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THE REMAINING THE CWA
WITH A BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND ONGOING. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE 60S POST FROPA...DEWPOINTS ARE
OBSERVING A SIGNIFICANT DROP. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE 50-60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR BEING REPLACED WITH 30 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT DID REMOVE
POPS THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS EITHER CLEAR
OR PARTLY CLOUDY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA WILL LIKELY STREAM OVERHEAD
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON FRIDAY AND AS THIS OCCURS...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD OUT AHEAD OF IT. PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL
BLOSSOM AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ALL RAIN AS THIS PRECIP MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SIMILAR
THOUGHTS CONTINUE WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL PROFILE COOLING AS
PERSISTENT CAA OCCURS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOT
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION OVER TO A WINTRY MIX.
HOWEVER...AM MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FORCING OWING
TO A STRONG AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS PLACEMENT VARIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL...THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT FROM MOST GUIDANCE. THIS STRONGER
FORCING ALONG WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ALOFT
TO LIKELY BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY...AM CONCERNED THAT ENTIRE COLUMN
WILL BE DYNAMICALLY COOLED TO SUPPORT EITHER A RAIN SNOW MIX OR
EVEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IN THE
GRIDS...AND THEN A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
REMAINING CWA. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRENDS
BUT HAVE GROWING CONFIDENCE OF SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING AT LEAST A
RAIN SNOW MIX. DONT HAVE ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS AS I WOULD
THINK THAT IT WOULD BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE
DAY AND AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD AND IF TRENDS WERE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW FRIDAY...THEN I WOULD ALSO BE
CONCERNED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT
SATURDAY - SUNDAY...
A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS UNDER AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE FOLLOWING A CHILLY SUB FREEZING START TO THE
DAY. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SEE WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH OF ILLINOIS
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
EASTER HOLIDAY GIVEN MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD TREND IN
HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE COLD LAKE WATERS MAY
AID THIS BOUNDARY TO OOZE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUSPECT IN POSSIBLY HELPING SUCH SCENARIO
ALONG AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANGES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. LIMITED RETURN MOISTURE ALONG
WITH MARGINAL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS MINIMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MONDAY TO START OUT DRY WITH DEPARTING WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
SUNDAYS RAIN CHANCES. MODELS DEPICTING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH
TIME HOWEVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS GULF BECOMES TAPPED. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER FOCUSED OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE BETTER
WINDOWS FOR RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY. DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THEN HELPS
REFORM ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY THAT
LIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.
RAIN CHANCES EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH... BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE.
ED F
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
* LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY WIND THRU THIS EVENING...WITH SPECIFIC
WIND DIRECTIONS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TRENDING MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE. THE GRADIENT ALSO WILL BE TIGHTENING SO GUSTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED TO THE DEWPOINTS. WITH APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND COLD
FRONT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD OR
PREVAILING FOG WILL BECOME INTO NORTHEAST IL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...
LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IL. THE HEAVIEST
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.
WHILE COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW FLAKES TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN...PRECIP COULD BE ENDING BY THAT TIME AND WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...REMOVED PROB MIX MENTION WITH THIS
FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIP AND HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFIC HEIGHTS IS FAIRLY
LOW...WITH THE LOWEST CIGS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE AND INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND GYY. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM FOR LIGHT RAIN MID MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS...LOW FOR SPECIFIC HEIGHTS/DURATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MVFR/IFR PSBL AT TIMES.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
244 PM CDT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THEY BECOME WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THEN NORTHWEST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
A BRIEFLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH INCREASED THERMAL
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW NORTH WINDS TO APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE TEMPERED LATER
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG A STALLED WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Showers and thunderstorms continue across southeast Illinois this
evening. Only had one report of dime size hail in Olney earlier
this evening...nothing since then. However, another wave has begun
to produce another complex of storms in southeast KS/southwest MO.
HRRR and other models have this area moving into southern IL
tonight, along the cold front that has reaching southeast IL.
Storms will remain possible overnight with this complex, but main
focus of severe weather potential will be south of CWA. Any chance
of severe weather will be marginal and likely limited to areas
along and south of Hwy 50. Locally heavy rainfall, however, will
be possible in the southeast as well. Again, main threat area will
likely be south of the CWA, but southeast 3 counties might see
something. Due to the limited area, still will not be issuing any
Flash Flood or Flood headline tonight. Overall, current forecast
looks to be on track. May make some minor tweaks to the grids, but
update is not planned/necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
19z/2pm surface map shows cold front extending from near Danville to
just north of St. Louis: however, radar indicates no convection
along the boundary. The bulk of the storms have developed further
south across Kentucky where the airmass is considerably more
unstable. Latest mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values generally in the
500 to 1000J/kg range across central Illinois, which are lower than
previously forecast. With partial sunshine breaking out and temps
rising into the middle 70s across the SE KILX CWA this afternoon,
still think scattered thunderstorms will develop along the advancing
front, mainly along/south of I-70. Front will slow its forward
progress as it gradually becomes parallel to the upper flow and will
stall along or just north of the Ohio River tonight. As a result,
will focus highest PoPs across the southeast in closer proximity to
the boundary and will go mainly dry across the northern half of the
CWA. As an upper-level wave ejects out of the southern Rockies,
surface low pressure will develop along the front and begin tracking
toward southern Illinois overnight. Light rain will develop
along/north of the low, but most of this precip will hold off until
Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Morning upper air data and the moisture channel IR data loop shows
first short wave in nearly zonal upper flow over eastern IL clearing
morning convection to east of area. 850mb moisture axis and thermal
ridge pointed northward along MS river into southern IL this
morning. Cold front on surface data and SFC mesoscale analysis data
has reached central IL. Some return of instability into area ahead
of front, and so as front drags southward, still chances of pcpn
into CWA, but best severe potential south of I-70, and mainly south
of CWA.
During the overnight, second shortwave in IR data over eastern UT
this afternoon, forecast to continue eastward and bring increased
instability and moisture back toward stalling frontal zone over
southern IL. This will keep best chance of heavy rain over southern
IL, and the southeast parts of CWA. Will have to watch the southeast
2 or 3 counties, as isolated heaviest rains possible in that area.
Will not issued flood watch at this time, but it will need to be
watched.
Shortwave brings colder air in mid day Friday, and so decreases pops
in the afternoon, but brings possible rain/snow into the northern
CWA Friday afternoon. Dry high pressure then in effect for Saturday
to Sunday.
Mainly zonal flow still in control for next week, with nearly
stalled front over the region, as it moves back north Sunday into
Monday. With several upper air waves moving through region, chances
of pcpn throughout the week. Pcpn amounts will mainly be on the
light side, as the waves are mainly weak on the models at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions will continue overnight at all TAF sites. However,
the HRRR is forecasting the wave that is producing the storms over
central and southern MO to move across IL in the morning. Storms
currently over parts of southwest IL will stay south of the TAFs,
but pcpn is forecasted to spread northward and effect all the TAFs
during the morning and afternoon hours. The heavier pcpn should
remain south of the sites, so cigs should remain VFR, but vis may
drop wtih the rain to 4-5sm. Once the wave/rain moves out of the
area during the late afternoon/early evening, cigs will improve
and conditions will become VFR. Winds will be northerly through
most of the forecast period, but become northwest after the wave
moves past the area. Winds will be light overnight, but become
gusty tomorrow as the pcpn moves through, then becoming light
again tomorrow evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KIND THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. APPEARS ANY THREAT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF KIND THIS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR THIS TO ADVECT INTO THE KIND
VICINITY LATER THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FALLEN WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER FROM KBMG AND
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAF AS THIS
SITE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR
LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 030600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS FALLEN WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY THUNDER FROM KBMG AND
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS RAIN
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLAF AS THIS
SITE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR
LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND
BE INTO PA BY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AT THE LATEST AND SKIES LOOK TO
QUICKLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE STATE. LEANED TOWARD THE 03.07Z HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.
MAY SEE A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15000-20000
FEET BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO DRASTICALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SEEMS POSSIBLE AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-3C SOUTH TO AROUND -8C NORTH WITH THE COLDER FORECAST MODEL BEING
THE GFS. STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE DECENT MIXING AND
THE CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE CAA. THE SUN ANGLE
AND DRY AIR HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
TUE SOUTH.
AN EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY MONDAY. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL SEND OUT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THREAT WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTH...HOWEVER THE MAJOR CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE KEPT TO
THE SOUTH OF STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AROUND CURRENTLY...AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH MAINLY IMPACTING KOTM. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A VCSH AROUND SUNRISE. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SINK INTO THE
CWA WITH SOME MVFR CIGS...OR LOW VFR CIGS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
TO CLEAR FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET AND
BACKING AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS APR 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...IFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z OR
SO. WINDS NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. 11Z-15Z MOST PRECIP MOVES SOUTH
OF THE TERMINAL WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...CIGS
RISE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. VFR CIGS ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS THROUGH 00Z THEN NO
GUSTS EXPECTED. AFTER 02Z WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 11Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM THE NORTH. 12Z-15Z
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY 15Z PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS IN THE 15Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
321 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 mb quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chc of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Kept going forecast with rain showers coming in to terminals over
the next few hours. Guidance also still suggests rain exiting mid
morning with MVFR cigs in its wake. Expect to clear mid to late
afternoon with winds diminishing through evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
As a surface ridge of high pressure builds into central and eastern
KS today, dry air is expected to cause RH values to fall between 20
and 30 percent across north central KS. Additionally northwest winds
will remain breezy with occasional gusts around 30 MPH through the
afternoon. This will lead to very high fire danger across north
central KS today.
Very high fire danger conditions are likely for much of northeast
Kansas Saturday afternoon. With a dry airmass in place from the
departing surface high and strong mixing of drier air in the
boundary layer, minimum humidity values may easily fall to the 15 to
25 percent range, with the lowest readings over north central
Kansas. In addition widespread southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are anticipated across the area. Portions of
north central Kansas may reach red flag warning criteria and have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FORECAST TO CANCEL THE DUST STORM WARNING
AND TO ADJUST WORDING IN FORECAST TO SHOW MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN ZONES AS TEMPS NOW IN LOW 30S...BUT KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL WARM
ENOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...IFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z OR
SO. WINDS NORTH GUSTING 20-25KTS. 11Z-15Z MOST PRECIP MOVES SOUTH
OF THE TERMINAL WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...CIGS
RISE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. VFR CIGS ARRIVE AROUND
16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS THROUGH 00Z THEN NO
GUSTS EXPECTED. AFTER 02Z WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6KTS
UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 11Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS FROM THE NORTH. 12Z-15Z
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY 15Z PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS IN THE 15Z-21Z
TIMEFRAME OTHERWISE SPEEDS 10KTS OR LESS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
528 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING WAS DROPPED AS THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES IS PULLING
TO THE EAST. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR 3KM
MODEL. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE DOWNEAST AND COAST, TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE 32F W/JUST RAIN BEING REPORTED. WE RECEIVED
SOME ICING REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE
NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS PICKED UP ON THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WELL DEPICTING
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRES
DEVELOP ON THE WARM OCCLUSION THIS MORNING AS SEEN BY THE LAPS DATA
WHICH IMPEDED A FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE WARMER AIR AND HENCE
HOLDING THE COLDER TEMPS IN A WHILE LONGER. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOW-UP IN THE WARMING THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING.
THE OCCLUSION/WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING W/RAIN ENDING AND WARMER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
TO THE SURFACE. SOME CONCERN ABOUT TEMPERATURES BUSTING 50F
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE LINCOLN-DOVER-FOXCROFT AREA DUE TO A LOW
CLOUD DECK THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM12 AND EVEN THE GFS
SOUNDINGS. THIS DECK LOOKS AS THOUGH IT HANGS ON THROUGH 18Z(2PM)
AND THEN BREAKS UP ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE. DECIDED TO BRING
AFTERNOON MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST,
SUNSHINE WILL BREAK THROUGH AND W/A WSW FLOW DEVELOPING AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL ENOUGH THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 50S
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS FROM HITTING 50F DUE TO
COLDER WATER TEMPS.
TONIGHT BECOMES THE CHALLENGE AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRES ORGANIZING
OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COLDER AIR WILL
SEEP INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION WILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND THEN TEMPS COOL DOWN
AS THE FRONT SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND LOW PRES RIDES NE. PRECIP IS
FORECAST TO BREAK OUT LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE WSW AREAS
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WHILE NORTHERN & WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP SET UP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY W/UP TO 0.40" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL &
DOWNEAST AREAS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHILE AREAS SUCH AS
DOVER-FOXCROFT AND LINCOLN WILL SEE < 1 INCH. THE BANGOR-CALAIS
REGION ON SOUTH WILL STAY AS RAIN. ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST DUE TO THE WARMING
AND MELTING OF SNOW. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR RIVERS AND STREAM
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENT STORM FOR SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO NOVA SCOTIA, COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE
MORNING WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW
FOR DOWNEAST. THIS MARKED THE LARGEST CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...THE QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR DOWNEAST DURING THE
MORNING AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
FORECAST DOWNEAST. CHANGES FURTHER NORTH WERE FAIRLY SMALL.
LOOKING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL TOUGH TO
PINPOINT THE WINNERS FOR SNOW WITH THIS STORM...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE
CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONE COMPLICATING
FACTOR TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE MARGINAL TEMPS AND THE FACT
THAT A LOT OF THE SNOW WILL BE COMING DURING THE DAY WHICH ALWAYS
MAKES IT TOUGH FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER,
BELIEVE THAT SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE FAIRLY EASILY MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON EASTER
SUNDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE AS TO WHAT PART OF THE
AREA WILL RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION, SO HELD ONTO JUST A
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GENERALLY COLD PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS
HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT, BUT THERE COULD BE SNOW AT
SOME POINT WITH THE BEST CHANCES MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY BEING IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PERHAPS SOME WARMING WITH RAIN OR A
MIX THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING W/THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SEEING
SOME -FZRA THIS MORNING. CONDITION WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON W/VFR MAINLY S OF KHUL AS A 2500 FOOT DECK
COULD HANG A WHILE LONGER FROM KHUL ON NORTH. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS
SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE SATURDAY WITH SNOW, OR RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW DOWNEAST. GUSTY WINDS TOO FROM THE NORTHWEST. PROBABLY
IMPROVING TO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN MVFR SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS MERIT WATCHING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWMELT ACROSS THE HSA. ICE MOVEMENT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST SUCH AS THE KINGSBURY STREAM, PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT RIVER BASINS. A BATCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT WILL ADD TO RUNOFF AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
RISES. ATTM, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS UP THROUGH 18Z AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE COME UP
TO 25 KTS AND 6 FT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF LATER THIS MORNING, BUT
SEAS COULD STAY UP A WHILE LONGER DUE TO A SOUTHERLY SWELL
COMPONENT. SEAS COULD STAY UP EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP
OFF. DECIDED TO STAY W/3-6 FOOT WAVES FOR NOW INTO TONIGHT MAINLY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS GENERALLY AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
THEN LIKELY DIMINISHING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ON MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD
TOP OUT AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE
SATURDAY, THEN GENERALLY HOVER AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 FEET THROUGHOUT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A
NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PCT) WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL
IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
PER PAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER WI WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 250-300
MB JET MAX E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/NAM MODEL BLEND AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SCNTRL UPPER MI. HAVE DECIDED TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA RANGING FROM LESS THAN .10
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TO NEAR .20 INCH AT KMNM. GIVEN
NEAR 10 TO 1 SLR/S EXPECTED COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS JUST INLAND
FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI AND OVER THE FAR EAST.
MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE NRN LAKES MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MOST OF THE MODELS ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MON AS A CONFLUENT FLOW INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE
DOMINANT SFC RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES. ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF
WILL BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MI LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN CWA.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM ITS
PREV COUPLE OF RUNS. AFTER SHOWING STRONGER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON INTO TUE...IT THEN EJECTS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS TROF NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE WED INTO THU. IN TURN...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI THAN PREV RUNS. THIS
SOLN BRINGS AN AREA OF WAA PCPN INTO UPPER MI MAINLY WED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THU. ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PCPN COULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE IF MODEL TRENDS WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A WETTER FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS BOTH THE GFS
AND GEM-NH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS SHOWING A SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED...MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING
SE INTO UPPER MI PER SATELLITE AND OBS. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT KIWD/KCMX...AND MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
AT KIWD/KCMX OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TODAY WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS SCATTERING OUT AT
KIWD/KCMX IN THE AFTN AND AT KSAW EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Precipitation will begin to work through the terminals area
overnight, with nearby isolated thunderstorms possible until the
early morning hours. Residual light precip may remain in the wake of
the activity as it pushes to the east, particularly at KSTJ. Strong
winds will back through the period, with gusts near 25 kts becoming
a factor until Friday evening. Cloud cover will begin to lift toward
the end of the period with winds gradually weakening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS REFLECTED NEAR SWIFT CURRENT AND
TRAILING BACK INTO NORTHERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS. AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH PER LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWER VFR CLOUDS
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST LOWS. ANTICIPATING SKIES TO GO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES A BIT MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO
HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES BETWEEN DICKINSON AND BISMARCK AND
AROUND RUGBY TO JUST SOUTH OF MINOT. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AND LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING AND ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 7 PM AND WILL SEND
OUT AN EXPIRATION STATEMENT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL ALSO CANCEL
THE RED FLAG WARNING AT 7 PM DUE TO THE DIMINISHING WINDS AND MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE WARNED AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. REMAINING UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL ALSO
BE SENT SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM CENTRAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. POTENT SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WINDS REMAIN QUITE GUSTY OVER THE AREA IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE DE-
COUPLES AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE. OTHERWISE...A
QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AS A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY IS NOTED. MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE A ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST PATTERN. A MILD DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 40S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS
DEVELOPING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF/OVER THE WEST COAST...SENDING
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA - LEAVING NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTH/COLDER
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LOOKING AT 1-2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/MINOT/BURKE COUNTY AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FROM EASTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO MONITOR KISN/KMOT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
12Z-15Z FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. A VCSH WAS
MENTIONED AT MOST TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WILL
JUST MONITOR AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
00Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. WINDS ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING...AND CLEAR SKY IS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. BY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S (ISOLATED
AREAS MAY EVEN GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RAP TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RAP AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF KBJI AND KFAR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
229 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS THAT
EXISTS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SW OHIO. BLYR CAPES ARE AROUND
1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT CONTINUES TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACRS ILN/S FOR NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH
LOSS OF INSTBY THIS WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES
BY LATE EVENING.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...THE SIGNAL STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE FLOOD ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 40S FAR NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS. HAVE VCTS IN AT ALL
EXPECT KDAY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES HOWEVER BELIEVE ANY SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AT THE
TAF SITES AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS MADE TO GO
STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NORTH LEAVING THE NY BORDER COUNTIES TO BE
FLIRTING WITH RAIN SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE TIME FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH LATER MONDAY WHEN A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
MISS VALLEY BRINGS MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BACK TO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN
THEN ACTUALLY REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SOMETHING WE HAVE
NOT SEEN MUCH OF IN RECENT MONTHS...FROM ABOUT TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER AS WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE BAROLCLINIC ZONE MEANING PLENTIFUL CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN KEEPING A DAMPER ON THINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PA CREATING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.
MOST AREAS WILL START OUT MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AS THE RAIN SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBFD. EXPECT SNOW ALONG
NY BORDER AREAS FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND DRIES THE REGION OUT. VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNSH. WILL BE
A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPENS TO SUB 1000 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SRN PENN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MULTI- MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD
0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER
THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL
TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
THE AIR SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH...OR
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS FAR NWRN PENN WITH A FEW TO SVRL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LIGHT TO MDT WET SNOWFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWOCTP/.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY OF PENN TO THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 03Z-12Z SAT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN THEN RISE SOME
AHEAD OF MORE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WET WEATHER LOOKS IN PLAY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PA CREATING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR.
MOST AREAS WILL START OUT MVFR/VFR FRIDAY AS THE RAIN SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH. MORE SHOWERS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE LATER
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z SATURDAY AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KBFD. EXPECT SNOW ALONG
NY BORDER AREAS FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND DRIES THE REGION OUT. VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SNSH. WILL BE
A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND RIDE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BRINGING RAIN WHICH MAY END AS
A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA
WITH ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS TO THE EAST HAVE WEAKENED.
NUDGED FORECAST WITH HRRR TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
RAIN MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME ISOLATED INTENSE SPRING-
LIKE SHOWERS ABOUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM AIR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOST GUIDANCE AND HRRR IMPLY ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR MD
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE. QUITE A
BALMY PERIOD WHICH WILL END. LATE FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOW MOST ORGANIZED RAIN TO OUR SOUTH ALONG MD BORDER HRRR
AND SREF SEEM TO EACH SHOW THIS. WERE THE FIRST FRONT KIND OF
DISSIPATES. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM AHEAD OF THE SECOND
SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH THREAT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MORE LIKELY TO SOUTH INITIALLY. BY MID AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD. LIKELY SHOWERS AND
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
BY EVENING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. MAX TIME FOR
RAIN/QPF TIME IN THE SREF AND GEFS IS IN THE 2100 UTC TO ABOUT 6
UTC TIME FRAME. LONGER IN NORTH.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 8
PM FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING AND THE COLD
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST. SHOWED CHANGE OVER SNOW TO
RAIN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MOST CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE WET SNOW OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW.
MOST OF THE QPF SHIFTS TO THE EAST FAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW POPS AFTER ABOUT 5 AM. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPS IN THE -6 TO 10C RANGE...SATURDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY. GOOD
DAY FOR SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AS THE APRIL SUN WARMS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MIXES WITH THE LATE SEASON COLD. A CHILLY DAY...WILL
FEEL QUITE COLD AFTER OUR RECENT WARMTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RAIN SPREADS NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPENS TO SUB 1000 MB AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SRN PENN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MULTI- MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND
OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD
0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER
THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL
TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.
THE AIR SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH...OR
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS FAR NWRN PENN WITH A FEW TO SVRL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LIGHT TO MDT WET SNOWFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWOCTP/.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY OF PENN TO THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST BETWEEN 03Z-12Z SAT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD
FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WEEK SHOULD TREND WARMER AS HEIGHTS FLATTEN THEN RISE SOME
AHEAD OF MORE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRETCH
OF WET WEATHER LOOKS IN PLAY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST OF THE
TAF SITES ARE VFR WITH BFD HAVING MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH MID
MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF SITES FROM 09Z TO 14Z. CIGS IMPROVE
TEMPORARILY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR UNV...BFD AND IPT AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA
AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.
TUE...VFR SOUTH...MVFR NORTH WITH CHC -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1236 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK WITH SNOWFALL ENDING LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE ALREADY DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...THE LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
INTO COLORADO AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. DECREASED POP
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA. BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND I80 SUMMIT.
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED ON THE I80 SUMMIT...BUT ROADS ARE SNOW
COVERED IN A FEW AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN WYOMING. HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS KRWL WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KLAR AND KCYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1008 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER SUNDAY MAY GIVE WAY TO A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A BRIEF RETURN OF MILD
TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS W MA AND RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS MA PIKE REGION OF MA AND N CT WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE DRYING MOVING IN
FROM THE N SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON N OF THE PIKE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S COAST WHERE CLOUDS AND
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. HI-RES WRF KEEPS SHOWERS MAINLY TO
THE S BUT HRRR AND NAM HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CT...RI AND SE MA THIS AFTERNOON.
925 MB TEMPS AROUND 11C SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 70 DEGREES WHERE
THERE IS SUNSHINE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR NE MA AND
CT VALLEY IN N MA. COOLER FURTHER TO THE S WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES S OF THE PIKE. COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SECONDARY AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. INITIALLY THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO LIFT ONCE AGAIN BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW PRES AS WELL AS
50-60 KT LLJ...AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH TT OVER 50...TQ
AROUND 20...AND K VALUES EXCEEDING 30 ALL COMBINE FOR A
REINFORCING SHOT OF RAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT. PWATS ARE 2+ STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
AND GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EVEN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR TO THE S COAST WHERE THE FRONT STARTS AND NOSE
OF THE LLJ MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS...BUT HEAVIER RAIN FURTHER N.
PWATS /INCLUDING THU NIGHT AND FRI/ RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25 INCHES
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
INFORMATION HYDRO CONCERNS WITH THIS RAINFALL...SEE THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER PAST SUNRISE. MILD
NIGHT AS MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
SAT...
LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING IT/S WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE
LOW SHIFTS E SO WILL GRADUALLY SEE AN END TO PRECIP FROM SW TO NE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE BIG ISSUE ON SAT WILL BE THE WIND. THE DEEPENING LOW PRES AND
INTRUDING HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET. NOTING 45+ KT NW LLJ AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUPPORT MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 UNDER COLD ADVECTION. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER COULD BE ENOUGH TO MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS ALONE...BUT GUSTS APPROACHING 40
KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. GIVEN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE ISSUING WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
MORNING/S UPDATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUN/EARLY MON AM
* BRIEF RETURN OF MILD WEATHER POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON
* UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES RETURN TUE/WED/THU
* PERIOD OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU
* LOW RISK FOR EVEN A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TUE/WED
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY WEATHER SAT NIGHT. LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 20S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DESPITE 850T BETWEEN -6C AND -8C...PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RECOVER WELL UP INTO THE
40S...TO THE LOWER 50S SUN AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE SUN AND ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST FORCING/MOISTURE SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS OUR REGION...PROBABLY JUST LOOKING AT A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUN/EARLY MON AM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER...BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PIKE. FEEL THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...BUT STILL CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PLACING AT LEAST SOME OF OUR REGION TEMPORARILY IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON MAY REACH WELL INTO THE 50S
AND PERHAPS EVEN 60S...BUT THERE IS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL IN TEMPS
DEPENDING WHERE BOUNDARY SETS UP.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW OVER THIS TIME. ANOMALOUS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH BRINGING A RETURN TO MUCH
CHILLIER WEATHER. THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT SO FAR SOUTH THAT
IT ONLY HAS A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
LATE MON NIGHT/TUE...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. THE
GGEM/UKMET ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE
MON NIGHT/TUE. IN FACT...MAY END UP COLD ENOUGH FOR EVEN A LOW RISK
OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST LATE MON NIGHT/TUE DEPENDING ON
POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT/WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. WE MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF SOME WET SNOW.
HOWEVER...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY END UP SUPPRESSED ENOUGH WHERE WE
SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT WITH THIS
POTENTIAL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME
WED INTO THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST WARMING ALOFT. WHILE WE MAY SEE
SOME SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN. AGAIN...TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT...RI AND SE MA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MIX OF IFR AND PERIODS OF VFR. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IN CT/RI AND SE
MA IN FOG/LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR FURTHER N. PERIODS OF
RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.
SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH MORNING...WITH VFR LIKELY EVERYWHERE
BY MID-LATE MORNING. BIG ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS...SUSTAINED
AT 20+ KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY
VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON AM.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR EVEN SOME WET SNOW LATE MON
NIGHT/TUE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING BUT REMNANT SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5-7FT ESPECIALLY ON S AND SE WATERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
DROPPING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT REMAINING UP ON THE OCEAN AND SRN
WATERS. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING BUT SHIFTING WINDS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND FOG LEADING TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. RAINS COME TO AN END BUT SUSPECT WE WILL SEE GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS IN SPITE OF MIXING ISSUES OVER THE COLDER WATERS. WILL
BE ISSUING A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE.
.OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS SAT NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
25 TO 35 KNOT GUSTS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE GALE HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED AGAIN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
POSITIONING OF A COLD FRONT AND WHERE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK. LOOKS LIKE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MMEFS DATA AS WELL AS COLLAB WITH THE NERFC SUGGEST THAT SOME
RIVERS ACROSS NRN MA MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY AS THE
HEAVIER RAIN THREAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT. SOME EVEN POTENTIALLY
REACHING ACTION STAGE. WITH QPF VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME SPOTS AND SWE VALUES OF AROUND 1-2 INCHES REMAINING ACROSS
NRN MA...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FLOODING OF THESE RIVERS
/PARTICULARLY THE UPPER MERRIMACK SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS OF
WRN MA/ TO SUPPORT A WATCH AT THIS TIME AS GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN
AGREEMENT ON ACTION STAGE AT BEST...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
635 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE IT
SLOWLY DRAGS A COLD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. A DEEPENING WAVE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT OUT TO SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SERIES OF IMPULSES
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY. EACH WAVE
WILL PROVIDE BOUTS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM ESTF COMMENTS ON THE PRIOR 330 AM FCST AND ITS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TODAY...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AT 6 AM BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SETTLE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH PTN OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ALONG
AND S OF I-78) IN THE HIGHER PWAT AXIS OF 1.4 INCHES. LLJ WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN IN OUR AREA BUT POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG WHERE POSSIBLY SOME SB
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER 70S EXPECTED S DE AND S PTN OF OUR MD
ZONES AS PER HRRR AND EVEN LOW-MID 70S S NJ AWAY FROM THE WATER.
THE GOING FCST FOR PHILADELPHIA ITSELF MAY BE TOO COOL BY 3F?
06Z NAM A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE WIND THIS AFTN SO HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY IN S DE WHERE WARMEST...FQT GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE: AVG
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THERE-AFTER A PROLONGED EPISODE
OF PSEUDO-ZONAL WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS THE GOMEX REMAINS OPEN FOR THE TAPPING.
SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECTING THE DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS WITH GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN.
A RATHER LONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT AS WAS
STATED ABOVE, SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE IMPULSES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING PLACE AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO SHOVE THE
FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME KEEPING A
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE TAP INTO THE GOMEX AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMS. ANOTHER POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX IS
EXPECTED WHILE MORE WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASS OVERHEAD
ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY...COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE SHOULD DEVELOP A EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLINKING ACROSS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE ARE THE TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS. WE TRENDED THE HIGHS DOWN A
BIT EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS, SOME RAIN, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...WE WENT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. VSBY RESTRICTION
POSSIBLE TO 5-6 MI IN SHOWERS.
AFTER 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR CIGS OR POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS IN BANDS OF SHOWERS. VSBY MAY BE RESTRICTED TO 3 MI IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY S-SW WIND. GUSTS LESS THAN THURSDAY AFTN, GENERALLY UNDER
25 KT EXCEPT 30 KT S DE. CHANCE OF A HEAVY TSTM MID-LATE AFTN E
PA VCNTY KRDG SOUTHWARD TO THE DELMARVA? MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR
THIS TIME FRAME OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON FCST CIGS/VSBYS IS BELOW AVG.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS WITH A CHANCE OF WSW WIND GUST 35-45 KT IF A TSTM
OCCURS. THINKING BEST CHC OF A TSTM IS 04Z-08Z. THEN THE CFP
AROUND 09Z-11Z WITH A WSHIFT TO NW, STRONG PRESSURE RISES (10MB IN
3 HRS DESPITE THE DEPARTING SFC LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY) AND NW
WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT...STRONGEST IN S NJ AND DE.
AN EPISODE OF LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THOUGH MARGINAL AND DEPENDENT
ON THE SFC WIND. CERTAINLY SW WINDS OF 50-60 KT DEVELOP TONIGHT,
MAINLY 02Z-08Z/4 AND STRONGEST SE NJ.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY NORTH OF ABE.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON SAT. IF WE`VE OVERSTATED THE
SITUATION FOR A GALE WARNING (VERIFICATIONS OF 2 HOURS OR MORE OF
GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING), THEN IT CAN BE
CONVERTED BACK TO AN SCA. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE GFS/NAM TRANSFER IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERIFYING AT LEAST NJ AND DE BAY WATERS.
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE THEN SHARPLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SSW GALE OF EARLY TODAY. THEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OF GALE
GUSTS IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW
AND GALE GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET
IN DELAWARE BAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG ON THE MWW SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ONCE WE LOSE THE GALE GUSTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOULD LOSE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
DELAWARE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SEAS INCREASE A BIT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 633A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE IT
SLOWLY DRAGS A COLD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. A DEEPENING WAVE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHES
THE COLD FRONT OUT TO SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SERIES OF IMPULSES
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY. EACH WAVE
WILL PROVIDE BOUTS OF INCLEMENT WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM ESTF COMMENTS ON THE PRIOR 330 AM FCST AND ITS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
TODAY...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AT 6 AM BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SETTLE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH PTN OF OUR FORECAST AREA (ALONG
AND S OF I-78) IN THE HIGHER PWAT AXIS OF 1.4 INCHES. LLJ WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH THUNDER EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN IN OUR AREA BUT POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG WHERE POSSIBLY SOME SB
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE 00Z/3 GFS/NAM MOS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER 70S EXPECTED S DE AND S PTN OF OUR MD
ZONES AS PER HRRR AND EVEN LOW-MID 70S S NJ AWAY FROM THE WATER.
THE GOING FCST FOR PHILADELPHIA ITSELF MAY BE TOO COOL BY 3F?
06Z NAM A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH THE WIND THIS AFTN SO HAVE
INCREASED GUSTS A BIT.
LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY IN S DE WHERE WARMEST...FQT GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE: AVG
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE TONIGHT IN OUR AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS AS A
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING IN ASSN WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CREATES STRONG MOISTURE FLUXES AND A
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. STRONG SHEAR WITH 60 KT
OF WIND AT 850 MB AND CERTAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALOFT: SWI -1
KI 34 AND TT 51 AND SBLI NEAR 0C WITH ML CAPE AROUND 200J AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR 45 KT OR GREATER AND EVEN 0-3KM KM SHEAR GREATER
THAN 40 KT COULD/SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BOWING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED SVR TSTMS IN E PA/NJ IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME
FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE GRIDDED GUSTY WINDS AND INCORPORATED SPC D1
INTO THE FCST.
THEN STRONG PRES RISES OF 10MB IN 3 HRS AND CAA MAY PERMIT WIND
ADVY CRITERIA GUSTS OF 40-44 KT BEHIND THE CDFNT IN THE 10Z-12Z
TIME FROM I95 SEWD TO THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 06Z AND RAISED
THAT A FEW DEGREES AS WELL PER THE 06Z 2M TEMPS OF THE ECMWF (MID
60S PHL). THE FCST 12Z MINS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW 00Z/3
NCEP MOS GUIDANCE SINCE OUR ORIGINATING 330 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE: AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THERE-AFTER A PROLONGED EPISODE
OF PSEUDO-ZONAL WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AS THE GOMEX REMAINS OPEN FOR THE TAPPING.
SATURDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE. EXPECTING THE DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ADVANCES TOWARDS OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS WITH GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN.
A RATHER LONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST TO
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT AS WAS
STATED ABOVE, SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE IMPULSES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING PLACE AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AND SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HELPS TO SHOVE THE
FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME KEEPING A
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE TAP INTO THE GOMEX AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMS. ANOTHER POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX IS
EXPECTED WHILE MORE WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT PASS OVERHEAD
ADDING TO THE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY...COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE SHOULD DEVELOP A EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLINKING ACROSS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE ARE THE TWO DAYS NEXT WEEK THAT COULD
SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUSTS. WE TRENDED THE HIGHS DOWN A
BIT EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS, SOME RAIN, AND THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION...WE WENT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 5000 FT. VSBY RESTRICTION
POSSIBLE TO 5-6 MI IN SHOWERS.
AFTER 13Z TODAY...VFR CIGS DEGRADE TO MVFR CIGS OR POSSIBLY IFR
CIGS IN BANDS OF SHOWERS. VSBY MAY BE RESTRICTED TO 3 MI IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY S-SW WIND. GUSTS LESS THAN THURSDAY AFTN, GENERALLY UNDER
25 KT EXCEPT 30 KT S DE. CHANCE OF A HEAVY TSTM MID-LATE AFTN E
PA VCNTY KRDG SOUTHWARD TO THE DELMARVA? MESOSCALE MODELS FAVOR
THIS TIME FRAME OF HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONFIDENCE ON FCST CIGS/VSBYS IS BELOW AVG.
TONIGHT...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS WITH A CHANCE OF WSW WIND GUST 35-45 KT IF A TSTM
OCCURS. THINKING BEST CHC OF A TSTM IS 04Z-08Z. THEN THE CFP
AROUND 09Z-11Z WITH A WSHIFT TO NW, STRONG PRESSURE RISES (10MB IN
3 HRS DESPITE THE DEPARTING SFC LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY) AND NW
WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT...STRONGEST IN S NJ AND DE. CONFIDENCE: AVG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY NORTH OF ABE.
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON SAT. IF WE`VE OVERSTATED THE
SITUATION FOR A GALE WARNING (VERIFICATIONS OF 2 HOURS OR MORE OF
GALE GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING), THEN IT CAN BE
CONVERTED BACK TO AN SCA. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE GFS/NAM TRANSFER IS
FAVORABLE FOR VERIFYING AT LEAST NJ AND DE BAY WATERS.
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE THEN SHARPLY
INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
SSW GALE OF EARLY TODAY. THEN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE OF GALE
GUSTS IN THE 04Z-08Z TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW
AND GALE GUSTS NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY.
SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET
IN DELAWARE BAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVG ON THE MWW SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...ONCE WE LOSE THE GALE GUSTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. SHOULD LOSE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
DELAWARE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SEAS INCREASE A BIT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 624A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 624A
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 624A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 624A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO IFR SHOULD EXIT
THE KIND AREA AROUND 15Z. NEXT AREA OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING OF THIS RAIN LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...KHUF/KIND/KBMG...THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE SECOND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
FOR A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 050 INITIALLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED LATER THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS MAY
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT BEFORE
REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.
INITIALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME
340-010 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS DEVELOPING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
REMOVED ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECASTS TODAY. LATEST
NAM SHOWS GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KGLD AND KMCK AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST NAM INCREASED SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED DEW POINTS. THIS IS REASONABLE. EVEN WITH RECENT
RAIN/SNOW...EXPECT ONE HOUR FINE FUELS TO RECOVER QUICKLY...SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO KGLD AND KMCK AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
605 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 MB quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 KTS of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Mid level frontogenesis and apparent conditional symmetric
instability has helped a narrow band of TS to form west of TOP and
FOE. This could bring some brief small hail to the terminals.
Still expect mid level drying to eventually bring an end to the
precip by the late morning. NAM and RAP continue to show some MVFR
CIGS moving in this morning and this appears to be reasonable
given up stream OBS showing CIGS between 1000 and 2000 FT. This
should scatter out as the precip ends. Think VFR conditions will
prevail for the afternoon and overnight tonight as a cool dry
ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
As a surface ridge of high pressure builds into central and
eastern KS today, dry air is expected to cause RH values to fall
between 20 and 30 percent across north central KS. Additionally
northwest winds will remain breezy with occasional gusts around 30
MPH through the afternoon. This will lead to very high fire danger
across north central KS today.
Very high fire danger conditions are likely for much of northeast
Kansas Saturday afternoon. With a dry airmass in place from the
departing surface high and strong mixing of drier air in the
boundary layer, minimum humidity values may easily fall to the 15 to
25 percent range, with the lowest readings over north central
Kansas. In addition widespread southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph are anticipated across the area. Portions of
north central Kansas may reach red flag warning criteria and have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen/Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
837 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 830AM UPDATE...SHIFTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE MORNING AS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS DRY RIGHT
NOW. 06Z NAM/11Z HRRR BOTH SHOW THAT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY
CHANGES PAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUE IT/S SLOW ADVANCEMENT THROUGH THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A DEVELOPING SURFACE
WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE
IN SHOWER COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIMITED...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES MAY
BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER SO
WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH AS IS. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONTINUED TO PREFER A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE
ECMWF QPF.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF I 80 ON SUNDAY...AND A
BETTER CHANCE BY LATE MONDAY AREA WIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
RECOVER TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING A BLEND OF
THE LATEST SREF AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARRED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO STALL OVER THE
REGION AND SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CROSSING DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL...TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WERE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH DISPUTES ARISING LATE IN
THE WEEK IN DEPICTIONS OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE I 70
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ALONG THAT
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ANY CONDITION IMPROVEMENT AS IT SPREADS RAIN
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT GENERAL MVFR...WITH PERIODIC IFR INTO
TONIGHT WHEN COLD ADVECTION WILL CHANGE DIMINISHING RAIN TO SNOW.
.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS. MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A
SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1038 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MORNING UPDATE PRIMARILY TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE MORNING
FLURRIES FROM MN ZONES. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT
SAT TRENDS...WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OVER NRN
WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HAVE LOWERED RH VALUES BY ABOUT 5 PERCENT TODAY AS THE 12Z INL
SOUNDING DEPICTED A LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR POSITIONED JUST ABOVE
900 MB/4000FT. ALTHOUGH AFTRN TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MIXING
TO BRING RAPIDLY FALLING DEW POINTS WITH RH VALUES REACHING THE UPPER
TEENS/20S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
IN THE 15-18KT RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
AT 330 AM...COLDER AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TO THE LOWER 30S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA TODAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN END TO THE
FLURRIES AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE TROUGH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW
SHOWER. MOS TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT AND WE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT
DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW FAR WE
ARE WILLING TO DROP TEMPS FOR NOW.
WILL MENTION VERY SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH FAIRLY SMALL POPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE
ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO/NEAR THE NORTHLAND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH MONDAY.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...MAINLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF WITH THE 00Z
RUNS.
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE WAS
CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD KBRD. SATELLITE AND THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THESE
CLEARING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WHEN CEILINGS FROM 4-7KFT MOVE BACK IN. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT FEEL THE CHANCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THIS SET OF TAFS OUTSIDE OF KHYR. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 22 42 25 / 10 20 20 20
INL 34 14 35 14 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 39 24 50 26 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 40 19 52 24 / 10 30 20 20
ASX 38 21 46 23 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
AT 330 AM...COLDER AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TO THE LOWER 30S IN PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WAS CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH SOME FLURRIES AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CWA TODAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN END TO THE
FLURRIES AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR ZERO IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE TROUGH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES OR A SNOW
SHOWER. MOS TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT AND WE WILL TREND TOWARD THAT
DIRECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW FAR WE
ARE WILLING TO DROP TEMPS FOR NOW.
WILL MENTION VERY SMALL POPS ON SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH FAIRLY SMALL POPS FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE
ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN CONTINUE TO BACK SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO/NEAR THE NORTHLAND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE LOW POPS FOR SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH MONDAY.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...MAINLY THE GFS...SUGGESTED A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THEIR QPF WITH THE 00Z
RUNS.
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL...THEN
WARM LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE WAS
CLEARING WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
AREAS TOWARD KBRD. SATELLITE AND THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THESE
CLEARING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
A PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WHEN CEILINGS FROM 4-7KFT MOVE BACK IN. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER...WE DID NOT FEEL THE CHANCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
IN THIS SET OF TAFS OUTSIDE OF KHYR. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 38 24 42 25 / 10 30 20 20
INL 34 15 35 14 / 10 20 20 10
BRD 39 23 50 26 / 10 20 20 20
HYR 40 23 52 24 / 10 30 20 20
ASX 38 24 46 23 / 10 30 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1023 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND IS
PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A
WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I WRITE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A
MARINE INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY
ACROSS LAKE WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC
MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW
OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
738 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST AND IS PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I
WRITE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT
HAS ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A MARINE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 30
MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY ACROSS LAKE
WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DEFINITELY A
MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
...DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24
HOURS AGO IS NOW OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE
TO AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST AND IS PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I
WRITE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT
HAS ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A MARINE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 30
MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY ACROSS LAKE
WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DEFINITELY A
MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE
THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM DYING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AFFECTING THE FLO/MYR/CRE AIRPORTS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST EARLY...AND THEN INLAND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24
HOURS AGO IS NOW OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE
TO AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT WILLISTON THIS
MORNING. WILL FINE TUNE THE POPS TO TRACK THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE
EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TODAY EXPECTED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL MVFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY
IMPACTING KISN TIL 16Z THIS MORNING AND KMOT TIL 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
KISN...WHERE AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY MORNING WILL AFFECT KISN FROM 15Z THROUGH 19Z
FRIDAY. KMOT CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR LATE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. A VCSH WAS MENTIONED AT MOST
TERMINALS FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
901 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT STILL
OFFSHORE AND THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AT THE COAST. THEREFORE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AT THE COAST AND
INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
WARMING AND FORECASTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD BREAK OUT ALONG THE CASCADES AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE ROUGE VALLEY. WE`LL LOOK AT THIS IN
MORE DETAIL. HOWEVER THE OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THIS.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS...SPREADING INTO THE
UMPQUA BASIN THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN. /FB/MP
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 03 APR 2015...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT, A LOW
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE...BRINGING IN UNSETTLED SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN OR NEAR THE WATERS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD...BUT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH WHEN...WHERE...AND HOW
STRONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNSETTLED RAINY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
A BREAK MIDWEEK. YET ANOTHER...AND POSSIBLY STRONGER...FRONT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN WITH THE HANDLING OF A
PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE LATER THIS WEEKEND, THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL GET TO THAT IN A BIT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MANY AREAS WILL GET OFF TO A COLD START THIS
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S OVER SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN OREGON AND THE
SHASTA VALLEY IN NORCAL EARLY THIS MORNING. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
ARE OUT AND CAN BE VIEWED AT NPWMFR.
UPSTREAM...IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING WASHINGTON AND OREGON FROM THE
PACIFIC. SOME HIGH CLOUD WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING, THEN LOWER AT
THE COAST BY LUNCHTIME. EXPECT RAIN TO ARRIVE THERE TOO LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD INLAND TO ABOUT THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS ISN`T A STRONG FRONT BY ANY STRETCH...MOST OF THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF MEDFORD...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTIER BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST SIDE). THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE ROGUE
VALLEY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT THAT WILL BEGIN AT 3:16 AM
AND WILL REACH TOTALITY AT 4:58 AM. THIS WILL BE THE SHORTEST
LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE CENTURY (TOTALITY IS ONLY AROUND 5 MINUTES
DURATION). BY 5:03 AM...THE EARTH`S SHADOW WILL BE MOVING OFF OF
THE MOON. THE BAD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN. FOR
THOSE LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WANT TO
STAY UP LATE OR GET UP EARLY...ENJOY THE SHOW!
NOW, ABOUT THAT UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THEIR USUAL DIFFICULTIES IN HANDLING SUCH
SITUATIONS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
WILL BE DIFFICULT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. IN FACT, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET.
SO, WE`LL SEE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO OVER THE MAJOR
PASSES (SISKIYOU SUMMIT, LAKE OF THE WOODS, AND BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
NEAR MOUNT SHASTA CITY) AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. RIGHT NOW,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND
SINCE IT IS APRIL...IF THE SNOW IS LIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY JUST
MELT ON ROADWAYS DURING THE DAY. BUT, ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW-
COVERED AND SLIPPERY AT NIGHT. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE TRAFFIC THAN USUAL...SO FOLKS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT...CHECK OUT SPSMFR FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS. WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SHORT WAVES SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE EVEN COLDER ALOFT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN AS LOW AS
2000 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW MAY NOT MOVE COMPLETELY
ONSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT THE COOL,
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THEN,
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HEAD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO DRY THINGS OUT
WITH A TREND TOWARD WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ024-026-619>623.
CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081-281.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
413 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING TRACKS INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES. A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA THEN MOVE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA...CAUSING THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
WAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BASED ON WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE 40 DEGREE F WATER. WEB CAMS ALONG OCEAN
PARKWAY IN SUFFOLK COUNTY WERE SHOWING DENSE FOG AS OF 2 PM.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO ADVECT INLAND QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
COASTAL CT THIS EVENING.
A VERY DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...PERHAPS INTO NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH THE NW WIND AT
KMGJ AND KPOU. LATEST NWP AND RADAR...DO NOT SUGGEST NO MORE THAN
NUISANCE LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
COMES AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE THUS MOVE THE
POP FOCUS TO THAT TIME PERIOD AND INCLUDE THE LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS PER THE PREVIOUS FCST. THUNDER BASED ON SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT. LATEST RAP APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SUNRISE COLD FROPA. EXPECTING WIND TO PEAK RIGHT WITH THE FROPA -
SOME PEAKS TO NEAR 40 KT...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORY (SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL). WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE FOR THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUN.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
20S OUTSIDE OF THE NY METRO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PREPARE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH EARLY SPRING SWINGS OF
TEMPERATURE.
SUNDAY...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF LIGHT
RAIN FROM 20 PCT SOUTH/NYC TO 40 PCT NORTH/NORTHERN INTERIOR DURG
THE AFTN AND EVE AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SE FROM A LOW PRES SYS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. IF THIS FRONT DEVELOPS
FURTHER S...THEN A HIGHER CHC OF RAIN FOR THE AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN WARM AIR SECTOR WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIP.
TUESDAY THROUGH THU MORNING...A CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL BUILD
SE TOWARD THE REGION AS A SERIES OF WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH THE REGION. TEMP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT 1/2-3/4 INCH BOTH TUE AFTN-
NIGHT AND AGAIN WED AFTN-NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BOTH TUE AND WED NIGHTS.
LATE THU-FRI...YET ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES SYS MVS NE TOWARD THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND WELL EAST OF THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY.
SW WINDS NEAR 10 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LIFR/VLIFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS THE COAST FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS SHOWERS COME TO A
LULL AND WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SW-NW TRANSITION OF WINDS AS THEY INCREASE IN SPEED
ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE 15-25
KT OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 30-
35 KT. GUSTS COULD PEAK OUT NEAR 40 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS. 1/4 SM
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME BEFORE 10Z SAT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY. CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAFS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY LIKELY.
IMPROVEMENT TIMING COULD VARY BY A FEW HOURS SATURDAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE
VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30KT.
.SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 15G20KT ON SUN.
.SUN NIGHT-WED...MVFR CONDS AT TIMES IN POSSIBLE RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA COND REMAIN ON THE OCEAN...DUE TO SEAS AND THEN WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DENSE ADVECTION FOG CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE LATE TNGT ON ALL WATERS AS LOW PRES TRACKS W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.
WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL WATERS AND REACH GALE FORCE
AROUND SUNRISE. THE GALES DIMINISH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...INCREASING SW WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS
TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LVLS BY SUNDAY AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OF THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TUE-WED...NE-E WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL DEVELOP ND PERSIST CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-9 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS
WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2" OF RAIN IS FCST THRU TNGT. RFC QPF WAS USED FOR THE
GRIDS. ONLY TYPICAL MINOR URBAN PONDING EXPECTED.
DRY OR NO SIG PCPN SAT-MONDAY
TUE AFTN-NIGHT AND WED AFTN-NIGHT...CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT 1/2-3/4 INCH WITH MINOR URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH MODERATE EVENTS. WET SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS BOTH TUE AND WED
NIGHTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
177>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-355.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GC/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE FRONT MEANDERING ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE ON ANY ONE DAY SO STUCK
WITH THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.
THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO FLOW
FROM THE GULF AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP EACH DAY AND ON
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MOSTLY VFR THROUGHOUT...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE
21-02Z OR SO TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
/NEAR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY REPORTED NEAR KBMG SHOULD MOVE OUT
QUICKLY/.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z. OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH THE RAIN SHOW MAINLY VFR SO WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE TAFS.
BEHIND THE RAIN WILL COME A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING. FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL KEEP
FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY VALID TIME AND WILL GUSTS AROUND 22KT
WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN THE CATALYST
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN WILL END TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND THEN
SHAPING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE....NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TRACKS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO SHIFT AREA OF THUNDER
FARTHER SOUTH AND TO DOWNPLAY THUNDER A LITTLE OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES MADE TO FLOOD WATCH AREA. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN SO FAR ACROSS SOUTHERN JACKSON AND JENNINGS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN ENDS THIS
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. REST OF OF THE NEAR TERM IS
ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO REST OF NEAR TERM GRIDS.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTION CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDING NORTH AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...07Z TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
PLETHORA OF ISSUES IMPACTING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KDAY W/SW INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG IT. RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WET
CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES SINCE LATE
THURSDAY. MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION HAS SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TO THIS
POINT...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ANTICIPATE
HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE WHERE THE ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
HOWEVER OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STEADIER RAINS MOVE THROUGH. COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF
INCH TO INCH THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 1130Z.
RAIN SHIELD HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I-70
THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS
STARTING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SPS FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WORSENING
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN ONCE
AGAIN EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE WAVES TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRESENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BUT LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LARGELY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED. COULD EASILY SEE
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BY LATE DAY AS THE
LAST SURFACE WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS...TRICKY TEMP FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT MOST AREAS SEE THEIR HIGHS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPS START FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPULATED WITH RAP HOURLY TEMPS WHICH GAVE MAX TEMPS NEAR
MAVMOS GUIDANCE IN MOST CASES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND FINAL SURFACE WAVE TRACK QUICKLY AWAY TO THE EAST.
CRASHING LOW LEVEL THERMALS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25MPH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF PRECIP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY
WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A SHARPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS.
TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH COLD
ADVECTION PRESENT. STILL WILL BE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
AND TOOK A GENERAL BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. FELT MAVMOS WAS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WARMING AND GENERALLY TRENDED WITH COOLER METMOS.
TOOK A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS
DIP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TENDENCY
FOR TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME DRY
PERIODS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
IS TO BROADBRUSH POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
MOSTLY VFR THROUGHOUT...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE
21-02Z OR SO TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
/NEAR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY REPORTED NEAR KBMG SHOULD MOVE OUT
QUICKLY/.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z. OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH THE RAIN SHOW MAINLY VFR SO WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE TAFS.
BEHIND THE RAIN WILL COME A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING. FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN WILL KEEP
FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY VALID TIME AND WILL GUSTS AROUND 22KT
WILL DEVELOP. THESE WILL DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ061>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND
BE INTO PA BY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z AT THE LATEST AND SKIES LOOK TO
QUICKLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE STATE. LEANED TOWARD THE 03.07Z HRRR FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
THIS MORNING AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.
MAY SEE A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15000-20000
FEET BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO DRASTICALLY. MIXING TO
AROUND 850MB SEEMS POSSIBLE AND INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
-3C SOUTH TO AROUND -8C NORTH WITH THE COLDER FORECAST MODEL BEING
THE GFS. STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE DECENT MIXING AND
THE CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMED WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO GO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...EVEN WITH THE CAA. THE SUN ANGLE
AND DRY AIR HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR WITH THE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE HIGH WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WARMING WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
TUE SOUTH.
AN EAST WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY MONDAY. TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WILL SEND OUT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THREAT WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTH...HOWEVER THE MAJOR CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE KEPT TO
THE SOUTH OF STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA. MCW AND DSM WILL BE ALL VFR BY 19Z AND ALO AND OTM BY
20Z...ALL SITES WILL THEN BE VFR THROUGH REMAINING TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AROUND 15KTS
AND GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS APR 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
REMOVED ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECASTS TODAY. LATEST
NAM SHOWS GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
BUT FLATTENS SOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FA. PLAN ON AN AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR REMAINING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON RADAR.
THE HRRR INDICATES PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND OR LACK
OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 20S PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO LOWER BUT TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION OVER A
CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE FA DECREASES CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
850 TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TODAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT AND THEN
WARM TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW RH
VALUES SOUTH OF I-70 COULD MAKE FIRE WEATHER A CONCERN ON MONDAY.
NOT SURE AT THIS TIME IS IF WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH
PUSHES IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED.
A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF OF THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IMPROVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PASSED THE ROCKIES AND CLOSER
TO THE AREA. A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
NEAR FREEZING. THIS CHANCE OF A SNOW MIX DISSIPATES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH IMPACT SITUATION BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS TO KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 20-30
KNOTS AT BOTH SITES FROM 15Z-18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
LATEST NAM INCREASED SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED DEW POINTS. THIS IS REASONABLE. EVEN WITH RECENT
RAIN/SNOW...EXPECT ONE HOUR FINE FUELS TO RECOVER QUICKLY...SO
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows broad cyclonic flow over the central
U.S. with what appears to be a MCV moving into MO. The main upper
level trough axis remained out west from northern CO to central SD.
At the surface, a cold front was slowly pushing south through
southern KS. Strong pressure rises behind the front on the order of
5 MB in 3 hours and a trough of low pressure from central OK into
southern MO has created a strong pressure gradient with north winds
gusting to near 40 MPH.
The winds this morning are likely to remain strong and am a little
concerned that there could be a brief period where winds reach wind
advisory criteria. However the NAM and RAP show this pressure
gradient relaxing shortly after 12Z and since none of the
observations are reaching wind advisory levels now, will be on the
look out for an increase in speeds and possible need for an
advisory. Models continue to show some weak mid level frontogenesis
with lingering mid level moisture across northern KS this morning.
Because of this have held onto some 50 to 60 percent POPs through
mid morning across northern KS. By the late morning hours, most
model solutions dry out the mid levels and bring an end to any light
precip. Surface temps look to remain warm enough for precip to
remain liquid. However there are some signs that a few flakes could
mix in with the light rain along the NEB state line. If there are
some snow flakes, it should not present much of an impact with soil
temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With a ridge of high pressure
building in and cold air advection persisting through the day, highs
are expected to remain in the lower and mid 50s even with deep
mixing and good insolation by this afternoon. The boundary layer
mixes to around 800 MB which is expected to keep gusty surface winds
through the daylight hours.
Tonight is expected to be clear with winds becoming light and
variable due to the center of the ridge axis moving in. With
reasonable radiational cooling, have trended lows cooler with much
of the area falling below freezing, especially those locations in
low lying areas (MHK and LWC). Forecast soundings show quite a bit
of dry air moving in with the ridge, so radiational fog appears to
be a low probability event at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
Zonal mid level flow prevails as surface winds back to the southwest
and become gusty on Saturday. Dry air at the surface and aloft at
850 MB quickly mixes down in the afternoon period, while southwest
winds pickup ahead of a lee trough out eastern CO. With the gusty
winds and RH at or below 20 percent, have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for portions of the area. Please see the discussion below for more
details. Cold air advection of near zero h85 temps from the exiting
high pressure keeps temps a bit cooler in the low to middle 60s for
Saturday. A southern stream shortwave trough increases moisture advection
across the area on Sunday with southerly winds once again between 15
and 20 mph sustained. Earlier timing of enhanced isentropic ascent
in the warm sector seen on the latest GFS and GEM lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday
evening through Monday evening as a PV anomaly over the northern
plains forces a cold front through the CWA. While forecast soundings
stay strongly capped within the warm sector late afternoon Monday,
marginal mid level lapse rates and 40 KTS of 0-6 km bulk shear may
produce a few stronger storms near the Kansas and Nebraska border.
An unsettled pattern sets up for the remainder of the period as the
cold front is expected to stall over the CWA. Mid level flow backs
to the southwest in response to a broad, deepening trough over
California. A series of weak systems ahead of it will trigger off
and on chances for thunderstorms before the main wave arrives on
Thursday. Severe weather probabilities are low at this time while
QPF amounts are not particularly high until Thursday as the stronger
forcing arrives.
The cold front will determine the spread of temps throughout the
week. Areas north of Interstate 70 may only reach 60s for highs
while further south upper 60s to lower 70s are the norm. Overnight
lows appear to stay above frost levels with perhaps a few locations
near the Nebraska border falling to the upper 30s Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Low level clouds
around 3KT will continue to scatter out more as the afternoon
progresses, with skies becoming clear at 01 UTC. Gusty winds will
prevail throughout the afternoon, slowly coming to an end tonight as
the pressure gradient begins to relax. Tomorrow, expect winds to
pick up once again from the southwest.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening FOR KSZ008>010-020>022-034-035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Heller
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR EARLY AND MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FROM
DAMAGING STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SHEAR IS
THERE...AND INSTABILITY SEEMS PROMISING ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL VA
AND S MD. AS FOR INSTIGATORS...THERE ARE 3 WAVES EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADAR...ONE OVER CENTRAL MD AND NOVA...TWO ENTERING W
WV...AND 3 OVER INDIANA. BASED ON THE LATEST MESO MODELING...JUST
ABOUT ALL ARE FORECASTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ALL DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE. BASED
ON TEMPS AND DWPTS RIGHT NOW...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE HRRR WHICH
HAS CONSISTENTLY PLACED THAT IN CENTRAL VA AND S MD. THAT
SAID...IT HAS BEEN WEAKER WITH IT RECENTLY. THE NAM FIRE WX NEST
WAS SQUARE OVER DC/BALT METROS...AND THE NSSL WRF WAS SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN. THE RISK IS THERE...WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT IT OUT AND
SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. OUR ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS HAIL AND TORNADO. NO WATCH OR EVEN WATCH
DISCUSSIONS AT THIS POINT HERE.
COLD FRONT GOES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH
AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE AT HIGHER ELEVATION. ANY FRACTION OF AN INCH ACCUM
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLEARING AND BREEZY ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SAT
NIGHT AS THE CENTER TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS THE UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS TO THE EAST...BUILDING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP TO
CLEAR THE SKIES. THE CLEARING SKIES...COMBINING WITH CALMING WINDS
AND ALONG WITH CAA WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
DRY WX CONTINUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH NUDGES EAST...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING
ZONAL FLOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD INCREASE SKY COVERAGE NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON DURING THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING NEAR SEASONAL
DAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 60S. WITH THE HIGH POSITIONED
OFFSHORE...RETURN FLOW WILL INJECT IN WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR...WITH
LOWS SUN NIGHT ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON AND OFF THE ENTIRE
WEEK...BUT IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT WASH OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO THE AREA
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THEN BECOMING VFR LATE
TONIGHT. ANY TSRA THAT HIT A TAF SITE WOULD OF COURSE OFFER A
BRIEF DOWNGRADE TO IFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. ALSO NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL
AND EVEN A TORNADO WITH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SFC
WINDS UP TO 30 KT EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORN AT
SOME TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT - SUN NIGHT. COULD SEE GUST UP TO 20 KTS
SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW.
S TO SW WIND 10-15 KTS MON BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE MON
NIGHT...THEN SE AROUND 10 KTS TUE. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOP WITH A FRONT STALLED NEARBY.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT GOES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GOOD GUST OF WIND AND
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. EXPECT GALE FORCE ON THE WATERS N OF
DRUM POINT WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO THE S AND ON THE POTOMAC.
OBVIOUSLY THAT LINE COULD WAVER SLIGHTLY N OR S AS WE NEAR THE
EVENT. WINDS SHOULD RECEDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADV LEVELS BY SAT
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE.
ANY LINGERING SCA GUSTS SAT EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUN MORNING.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS BY MIDDAY SUN...GENERALLY 18-20 KTS...WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. A FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
LIKELY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534>537-
542-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...CAS/SEARS/DFH
MARINE...CAS/SEARS/DFH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
351 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... DEWPOINTS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE... HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE RATHER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS... UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMANATING FROM DISSIPATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE SPC PAGE SHOWING SOME MUCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS EXPECTED
IT WOULD BE GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A
BAND OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE LATEST (GENERALLY EXITING IN A NW TO SE FASHION).
LOWS TONIGHT... DRIVEN BY CAA... WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE MID 60S SE (WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL NEAR 12Z... SE
THAT IS).
SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY... WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... TO NEAR 70 SE. GIVEN THE
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE... WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATED IN THE
NORTHERN FROZEN NORTHERN LATITUDES... IT IS COLD AND DRY. WINDS WILL
DIE OFF BY SUNSET ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES... LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 30-35... WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE A HARD FREEZE LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED JUST A WEEK AGO...
(MARCH 29)... BUT READINGS BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
APPEAR LIKELY AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
STARTS FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN ON SUNDAY MORNING (APRIL
5). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS OF 65-70.
A RAPID MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE... THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS IN
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO ONE IN
WHICH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN READINGS MAY
VERY WELL STAY 60+ OR EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEARS NORMALS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS (LIGHT) CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT... AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS... RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE
BIGGEST NEWS WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREATS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL
NC). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN POP AND EVEN THUNDER
CHANCES BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED SSW TO SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH SHORT-LIVED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
BETWEEN 06-15Z SAT...EARLIEST AT INT AND LATEST AT FAY. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE
17 TO 22 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR AREA TERMINALS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NW OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING ONWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
VFR AND (NORTHWESTERLY) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY/NEAR SUNSET. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE TRACE OR NIL ON AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. WITH THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALREADY DRY AND FIRES
REPORTED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NC THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS... IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS OF 30-35 ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME 15-20
PERCENT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 1000 AM
AND 800 PM SATURDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/RAH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS... WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNTIL
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... DEWPOINTS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE... HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC GIVEN THE RATHER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS... UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMANATING FROM DISSIPATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ANY GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DESPITE THE SPC PAGE SHOWING SOME MUCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS EXPECTED
IT WOULD BE GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A
BAND OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING AT THE LATEST (GENERALLY EXITING IN A NW TO SE FASHION).
LOWS TONIGHT... DRIVEN BY CAA... WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NW TO
THE MID 60S SE (WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS UNTIL NEAR 12Z... SE
THAT IS).
SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY... WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S... TO NEAR 70 SE. GIVEN THE
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE... WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY
NIGHT...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATED IN THE
NORTHERN FROZEN NORTHERN LATITUDES... IT IS COLD AND DRY. WINDS WILL
DIE OFF BY SUNSET ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES... LEADING TO EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 30-35... WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN
THE RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL BE A HARD FREEZE LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED JUST A WEEK AGO...
(MARCH 29)... BUT READINGS BETWEEN 29 AND 32 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
APPEAR LIKELY AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM
STARTS FOR ALL AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEGUN ON SUNDAY MORNING (APRIL
5). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT 10 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS OF 65-70.
A RAPID MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS AS WELL. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE... THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS IN
CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE INTO ONE IN
WHICH A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN READINGS MAY
VERY WELL STAY 60+ OR EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEARS NORMALS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS (LIGHT) CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT... AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS... RAINFALL WOULD BE LIGHT BUT THE
BIGGEST NEWS WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER THREATS).
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NW HALF OF CENTRAL
NC). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN POP AND EVEN THUNDER
CHANCES BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE COMMON IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE COORDINATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL BE TRACE OR NIL ON AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. WITH THE FINE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALREADY DRY AND FIRES
REPORTED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NC THE LAST FEW DRY DAYS... IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS OF 30-35 ARE EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME 15-20
PERCENT VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 1000 AM
AND 800 PM SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUED SSW TO SW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO NW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH SHORT-LIVED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
BETWEEN 06-15Z SAT...EARLIEST AT INT AND LATEST AT FAY. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES IN THE
17 TO 22 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME CROSSWIND ISSUES FOR AREA TERMINALS.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NW OF AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING ONWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
VFR AND (NORTHWESTERLY) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY/NEAR SUNSET. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/RAH
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...BADGETT/RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST AND IS
PASSING BERMUDA BY TO THE NORTH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A
WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AS I WRITE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DIED AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE PEE DEE REGION LATER THIS MORNING BUT MAY TAKE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON TO CLEAR THE CAPE FEAR COAST. 850 MB TEMPS
REACHING +13C TO +14C COUPLED WITH STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 80S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A
MARINE INFLUENCE FROM THE STILL-CHILLY OCEAN. SOUTH- SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH. 07Z-08Z HRRR MODELS PLUS THE 00Z NSSL WRF ALL
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE RESULTANT SEABREEZE FRONT FROM NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY
ACROSS LAKE WACCAMAW TO NEAR KELLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A MESOSCALE IDEA NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN SYNOPTIC
MODELS...BUT GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON I
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE AREA. MUCH LIKE THE DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER 1000-850 MB
LAYER IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. I ONLY HAVE A 20-30
FORECAST POP FOR SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS MARION...WHITEVILLE...AND
ELIZABETHTOWN...MAINLY IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME. WITH STEADY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MY FORECAST LOWS ARE AT OR
ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND: 62-65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH GORGEOUS
BUT SLIGHTLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE SATURDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING ACROSS THE EAST. SREF PROBABILITIES...WHICH ADMITTEDLY
ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SHOW A QUICK PASSAGE OF
HIGHEST PROBS LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/ARW SHOW
A SIMILAR THIN-RIBBON OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION SATURDAY MORNING. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED
TO THE NORTH...AND WHILE SOME INSTABILITY DOES EXIST SATURDAY
MORNING (200-300 J/KG)...TOTAL FORCING IS WEAK AND COLUMN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS TO ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
SREF PLUMES AGREE WITH WPC QPF GRAPHICS...AND EXPECT VERY LIMITED
QPF AROUND 0.1 INCHES...HIGHEST NORTH...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY HIGH
CHC POP FOR SHOWERS.
RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...AND THE SUN WILL LIKELY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BEFORE NIGHTFALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
A BEAUTIFUL EASTER FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN ATYPICAL CURVE WITH THE DAILY HIGHS
BEING REACHED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
EXPECT SEASONABLE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 70...HIGHEST
EAST...BEFORE TEMPS CRASH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID AND UPR 30S...WITH A 33
SHOWING UP AT LBT ON THE MET GUIDANCE. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BENEATH
THE HIGH...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAXIMIZE AND WE MAY HAVE SOME
FROST CONCERNS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE MID/UPR 60S BENEATH FULL APRIL SUNSHINE...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL ONLY TO NORMAL VALUES...UPR 40S TO LOW
50S...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE EAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...IN A PATTERN SHIFT NOT
SEEN LOCALLY...IT SEEMS...SINCE LAST FALL. INCREASING THICKNESSES
AND PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA-TYPE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CAUSE A WARMING TREND...WITH TEMPS RISING TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY MID-
WEEK...WHEN A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE TEMPS SEEMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE
COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...THIS LONG DURATION RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ANY
TRUE FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN A WEAK WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THESE REASONS WILL KEEP CHC POP EACH AFTN TUE-THU BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING HEAVY QPF OR STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WHAT IS ULTIMATELY A
WEAK EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN.
DO NOTE THAT THE GFS TRIES TO DIG A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND
INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS NO SUCH
SOLUTION. WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AT THIS
TIME RANGE AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE ILM CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXCEPT FOR LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15-16Z
VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION WELL TO THE NW WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
DECREASING NW-SE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE MID CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S-SW WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET...BUT SW WINDS AROUND
15 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE 09-12Z...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
KFLO/KLBT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING NE-SE SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY.
VFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE OUTER BANKS 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW
OUT NEAR BERMUDA. LOOKING WEST...THE NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
AREA IS A COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REACH THEIR PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT
MIDNIGHT. FOR SOUTH CAROLINA WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL STILL
DETERIORATE BUT MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY NOT AS ROBUST AS WAS DEPICTED
BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THIS REASON THE RISK OF SEA FOG IS LESS
THAN FIRST FEARED. THE HIGHEST FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND
95 PERCENT...IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR CAPE FEAR AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED 2-3 MILE VSBYS IN LIGHT SEA FOG.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 4-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE NC WATERS ONLY. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THEN NE
BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 15-20 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KTS WHILE VEERING
SLOWLY TO THE SE. AFTER THE INITIAL 4-6 FT SEAS SATURDAY
MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DROP SLOWLY TO 3-5 FT THE REST OF
SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING MORE QUICKLY SUNDAY TO 2-3 FT AS THE WINDS
EASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BERMUDA-TYPE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDS
WHICH WILL ONLY SLOWLY VEER FROM SE MONDAY MORNING TO SW LATE
TUESDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10-15 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3- 4 FT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
A LONGER AVERAGE PERIOD AS A GROUND SWELL AMPLIFIES AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/TRA/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
VERY DRY DEW POINTS SOUTH CENTRAL...BETWEEN 14-20 DEGREES F. STILL
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE....BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH ABOVE 20F. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE NARROW
CAPES CENTRAL AND THAT WAS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE IN BUT TRIM TO ISOLATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
REDUCING VISIBILITY BRIEFLY TO ONE QUARTER MILE AT WILLISTON THIS
MORNING. WILL FINE TUNE THE POPS TO TRACK THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE
EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 11 UTC. OVERALL...THE 06
UTC NAM...00 UTC 4 KM WRF...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS ALL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK
CLIPPER PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH A LOCALLY GUSTY WIND THREAT AND A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A THREAT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OUR NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SWIFT CURRENT SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...WITH THE BRUNT OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDES.
THE BEST MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER THIS AFTERNOON PER NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OCCURS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 400 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MENTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE
BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
A COOL START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MODERATING TREND
THEREAFTER HIGHLIGHTS THE PERIOD.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREAFTER...THE
NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO MODESTLY AMPLIFY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE IN AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN ADDITIONAL TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
BAND OF SHOWERS...NOW MAINLY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX NORTH
HALF OF STATE. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL
MVFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY IMPACTING KMOT TIL 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 PERCENT
AND 30 PERCENT WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO 30 MPH
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER INTERROGATING THE DATA...USING
RECENT TRENDS...AND COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
MARGINAL AND BRIEF DURATION OF FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS COMING TOGETHER
TO CARRY A FIRE...AND LEADING TO LARGE/UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...KS/AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS COOL AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW SD INTO THE NRN/ERN BLKHLS AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
20 POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER THESE AREAS AND INCREASED NW SD
POPS TO CHANCE. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTORM AS WELL. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST. WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH MONTANA.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. A LITTLE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...40S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAINLY OVER NE BUT REACHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AND
DRY AIR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST US. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THEN
COOLER AIR WILL BACK INTO THE CWA ON EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
THURSDAY. MAIN ENERGY FROM PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO SPLIT NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ECMWF IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER POPS
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF NERN WY AND NWRN SD UNTIL AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY -SHRA/-TSRA OVER FAR NWRN SD
AND OVER THE BLKHLS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONINUE THROUGH
THE AFT...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR TODAY..BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. ISOLD -SHRA
OR POSSIBLY -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARM AND
DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO
DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST
WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ELSEWHERE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
DECIDE TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ265.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1049 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS COOL AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION. CU FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW SD INTO THE NRN/ERN BLKHLS AREA. HAVE EXPANDED
20 POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO COVER THESE AREAS AND INCREASED NW SD
POPS TO CHANCE. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSTORM AS WELL. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST COAST. WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH MONTANA.
SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND TEMPS ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
AS THE WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. A LITTLE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S...40S IN THE
BLACK HILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MAINLY OVER NE BUT REACHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AND
DRY AIR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY LEADING TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NORTHWEST US. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THEN
COOLER AIR WILL BACK INTO THE CWA ON EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY
THURSDAY. MAIN ENERGY FROM PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS TO SPLIT NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ECMWF IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR BETTER POPS
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. WILL HOLD THE LINE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD MOST PLACES. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE SD PLAINS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
-SHRA/-TSRA OVER NORTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SD...20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. SINCE MIN RH VALUES ARE
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
TODAY...DECIDED TO FORGO ANY HEADLINES.
FOR SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND BRINGS WARM AND DRY
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT AREA. FORECAST WINDS REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA ELSEWHERE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY DECIDE TO EXPAND THE
WATCH AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ265.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...POJORLIE
FIRE WEATHER...POJORLIE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
305 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
CONVECTION IS BUILDING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AS EXPECTED...AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST.
CAPPING OVER NRN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR IN THIS AREA AND
TRACK NE INTO OUR AREA. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF I-81/I-75...BEGINNING AROUND 6 PM EDT. THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE HRRR...BUT THE HRRR IS CURRENTLY TOO FAR WEST WITH
THE DEVELOPING STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THE MAIN
THREAT. 0-1 SRH IS FAVORABLE BUT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SO THE TOR THREAT APPEARS ISOLATED AT
BEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
WILL DROP POPS BACK QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SATURDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS MARGINAL AS THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
GUSTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 25-30 MPH...BUT SINCE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RIGHT
ON THE FREEZNIG LINE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW DUE
TO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND WILL LET THE
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE FURTHER. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING IN INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE WORK WEEK...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...WITH A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD SOUTH OF I-40. MODELS HAVE HAD A TREND OF PUSHING THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN CLOSER TO SUNRISE...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY AND
IN TO MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE IS PRESENT FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL SET UP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 64 36 68 / 90 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 59 33 66 / 90 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 44 60 33 66 / 100 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 45 56 28 65 / 100 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR ANDERSON-
BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-
NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-
ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST
CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-
UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
$$
DGS/JW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
341 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLIN
MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TOMORROW...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. AN ISOLATED POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
RIO GRANDE AND POINTS EAST. SUNDAY WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
OBS INDICATE THE BACKDOOR FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR CORONA TO
SOMEWHERE JUST NE OF ROSWELL. HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST FROPA AT ELP
JUST BEFORE 03Z (9 PM). COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS
WITH THE NAM INDICATING A LOW LEVEL WIND MAX AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
NOSING INTO THE AREA.
THE NAM HAS GENERALLY BEEN STRONGER WITH FRONT...PUSHING IT
FARTHER WEST AND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES VERSUS THE GFS.
THERE WERE NO NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN INITIAL CONDITIONS BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS OR BETWEEN EITHER MODEL VERSUS 12Z OBS.
THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT WELL INTO ARIZONA AND KEEPS EASTERLIES IN
PLACE AS FAR WEST AS LORDSBURG BY SAT EVENING. WITH THE COOLER
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE IN THE NAM...THERES NO INSTABILITY AND A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...THOUGH THE 18Z
RUN SUGGESTS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH COUNTY.
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE DIVIDE BY 18Z...BUT WESTERLIES
END UP MIXING THE FRONT BACK TO AROUND THE RIO GRANDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE ECMWF AND A FEW HIGH-RES WRF RUNS
ARE IN AGREEMENT.
THE GFS SUGGESTS STRONG CONVERGENCE AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 40F WILL LEAD
TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK/MODERATE CAP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
AND POINTS EAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS
WITH THE SAT EVENING FRONT POSITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... AND
QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
DAY NEAR AND EAST OF THE FRONT. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT... THE LACK OF ANY
REALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO BREAK THE CAP WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED...THEREFORE I KEPT THE
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING (ISOLATED) IN THIS CASE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY... BUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. INSTEAD WE WILL SEE MORE SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH CARVES
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHWARD...AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASINGLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW150-BKN250. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS THRU 03Z. BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL
WILL BRING A STRONGER EASTERLY PUSH INTO THE REGION BY 06Z
INCREASING WINDS AT KELP AND KLRU ABOVE 15KTS. AWW AT KELP 05Z-10Z
AS WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 10026G35KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL BRING A STRONGER EASTERLY PUSH
INTO THE REGION DROPPING TEMPS AND HELPING RH VALUES RECOVER BEHIND
THE FRONT. SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITION WILL APPROACH RED FLAG WARNING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
CREATING WINDY AFTERNOONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY RH VALUES WILL RECOVER WITH VALUES IN THE 20S TO 30S
ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS. SUNDAY MIN RH VALUES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 52 75 57 84 58 / 0 0 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 69 50 81 53 / 0 10 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 49 75 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 74 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 54 36 59 39 / 0 10 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 73 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 43 69 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 75 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 45 78 41 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 75 57 83 57 / 0 0 20 0 0
DELL CITY 46 68 48 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 75 53 86 53 / 0 10 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 67 50 77 53 / 0 10 20 0 0
FABENS 49 74 53 85 53 / 0 10 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 51 75 52 82 53 / 0 0 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 51 74 49 81 54 / 0 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 74 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 46 76 45 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 77 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 48 71 49 79 53 / 0 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 31 59 41 67 44 / 0 10 10 0 0
MESCALERO 32 60 38 67 41 / 0 10 10 0 0
TIMBERON 33 60 40 67 43 / 0 10 10 0 0
WINSTON 34 67 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 40 71 43 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 74 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 67 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 71 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 43 77 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 35 74 33 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 70 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 79 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 46 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 78 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25-HARDIMAN/28-PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
201 PM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES
NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BY AROUND 5 OR 6 PM AND IN LANE COUNTY IN THE
MID TO LATE EVENING. THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS CHANCE OF SOME INSTABILITY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED PARENT UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR DECREASING SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH COASTAL SECTION. THE
UPPER LOW EXPANDS ONSHORE SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND IT FOR
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW PASS LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CAME INTO THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA RIGHT AROUND NOON...AND WAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND 1 PM. EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES THAT
THE RAIN SHOULD END NEAR PORTLAND BY AROUND 4 PM...AND A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER SOUTHWARD IN EUGENE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
CASCADES AN HOUR OR TWO LATER...AND EAST OF LANE COUNTY IN THE LATE
EVENING.
THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW AS
IT WAS MOVING THROUGH...PERHAPS A LITTLE HEAVY IN THE NORTH NEAR
PORTLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO HAVE 40 TO 50 DBZ ECHOES ON ITS
NORTHERN END. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL IDEA OF THE FRONT BEING
A BIT CONVECTIVE. THE MODELS SHOW SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER NORTHWARD WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH PERHAPS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED PARENT COOL UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE
B.C. COAST...WILL DIG SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
OFF THE COAST. THAT SHOULD BRING DECREASING SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SOME MOISTURE
AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE WITHIN THE REACH OF THE UPPER LOW.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS AROUND
THE LOW. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE SOUTH AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...REACHING A POSITION JUST OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT THE
UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW PASS ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
AMOUNTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER THE BURST
OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE NEXT PERIOD WITH SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PERHAPS
A BIT MORE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
AGAIN...NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FURTHER SOUTH DOWN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
INCONSISTENCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE ON WHERE WILL SEE THE MOST RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST PANS OUT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH...PRECIP COULD STILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE
TRACK...THOUGH...WE ARE HESITANT TO REMOVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
NORTHERN 1/3RD OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLEARING OUT ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS BY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON LATE NEXT WEEK
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND...OR ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY...
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T VERY HIGH AS OF YET. -MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA IN SCATTERED
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN OF CASCADES MAY OCCASIONALLY BE
OBSCURED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH COAST
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A
SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET IN THE VICINITY OF KPDX WITH
PREVAILING CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET.
&&
.MARINE...A LOW PRES NEAR HAIDA GWAII B.C. WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING ABOUT 400 MILES OFF THE OREGON COAST ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL SEE WHAT MODELS DO IN THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
A LARGER NORTHWESTERLY SWILL TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WAS GENERATED BY THE LOW OFF THE B.C. COAST. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 11 FT FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. ENP WAVE MODEL IS VERIFYING WELL COMPARED TO OFFSHORE
BUOYS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH SUN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO N CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. IT MAY BRING SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD MEAN
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS. /MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM
TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
955 AM PDT FRI APR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase today with the next storm system bringing a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow tonight. A stronger storm
Sunday night and Monday may bring a return of light snow
accumulation to northeast Washington and North Idaho. Unsettled
and cool conditions will persist into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: We have lowered Pops for the eastern Basin
including the Spokane-Cda area through this afternoon. Morning
models have come in drier and main precipitation threat east of
the Cascade Crest will be early evening into the overnight. NAM is
developing some convection in the northern and eastern mountains
this afternoon but did not initialize boundary layer moisture (too
moist) as well as the GFS so will give the nod to the drier, less
showery GFS. HRRR would support this notion as well with only an
isolated shower or two expected over the northeastern mountains
and possibly between the Blues and Mullan. Precipitation chances
will be greatest along the Cascade Crest with frontal
precipitation moving in around 2PM. As this band crosses the
crest, a few showers will survive into the East Slopes,
Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley but any precipitation
looks to be light as westerly flow quickly developing behind the
front leads to shadowing. Overall, the best chances for
precipitation this evening and tonight will be on the outer
perimeter of the Columbia Basin. /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will reach the Cascades arnd 21Z then
slowly work east to the WA/ID border 6-8Z. Mid and high clouds
will stream into the region ahead of the front with a small threat
for isolated showers vcnty of KLWS. Precipitation along the front
will be spotty for most terminals with the highest precipitation
chances focusing on the outer perimeter of the Basin. KLWS/KPUW
will stand the best chance for shower activity this evening and
overnight. Ceilings under heavier showers will range btwn 5-8k ft
agl. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 33 51 31 54 34 / 10 20 10 10 10 80
Coeur d`Alene 53 30 51 28 54 32 / 10 30 10 10 10 80
Pullman 54 33 50 31 55 35 / 20 40 10 10 20 80
Lewiston 60 35 55 34 57 37 / 20 50 10 10 30 70
Colville 55 31 54 27 56 33 / 20 30 20 10 0 40
Sandpoint 53 30 51 25 54 31 / 20 40 20 10 10 80
Kellogg 53 32 48 27 50 32 / 20 60 30 10 10 90
Moses Lake 61 33 60 31 58 36 / 10 10 0 0 10 50
Wenatchee 57 34 58 36 58 41 / 20 10 10 10 10 50
Omak 57 29 56 30 58 36 / 20 40 10 10 10 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$