Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/02/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.
CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE...ALTHOUGH AN INITIAL BAND OF TRACE FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA, THE MAIN
BAND OF STEADY PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO, WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS (OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS) RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 60S...INCLUDING
SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN NW NJ, ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE HIGHER
SNOW RATES WITH A MESOSCALE BAND, THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HINDER
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY
THERE. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POCONOS.
9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: WITH THIS UPDATE MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR
A PRETTY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
WAA SOUTH OF THE CLIPPER TRACK. ALSO WITH THE WAA, THE NAM AND
HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, SO
HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE GRIDS SOUTH OF ILG. SNOW PART OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OCCURRING EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE POCONOS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN SUSSEX NJ. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED
BACK IN MORRIS NJ AND FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY/READING. TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30`S AND LOW 40`S WITH 1-2
OF ADDITIONAL WARMING BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH COUPLED WITH RH VALUES AROUND 35% ARE FORECASTED
IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT SEE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ATTM.
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCALIZED SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, CROSSING OUR AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN NEARBY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8:00 AM: FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SUSSEX NJ AND THE POCONOS TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TIME MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK BY 1-2 HOURS AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS. ATTM DID NOT MAKE THIS
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY STILL PRESENT OF RAIN/ MIX
ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 16-17Z. IN THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ, THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING.
PREVIOUS: THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED A LITTLE WEAK WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF AND MAYBE WHY ITS TIMING IS THE FASTEST. ITS
SLIGHTLY WARMER AT 925MB UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS THINK. OVERALL
THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, BUT THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER PCPN.
THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AND OVERALL WETTER. MODEL PREDICTED PWATS
HOWEVER ARE AROUND HALF AN INCH AND GIVEN THIS IS ABOUT A 6 TO 12
HR EVENT, BELIEVE QPF ABOVE HALF AN INCH ARE TOO ROBUST UNLESS A
FGEN BAND CONCENTRATES IN A NARROW AREA FOR A PROTRACTED PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO A COMBINATION OF THE UKMET`S
QPF FIELD, GFS PATH (COUPLE OF HOURS SLOWER) AND WRF-NMM`S BETTER
LLVL THERMALS AND SFC TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN SNOWIER AREAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR THREE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
IF THIS WAS NIGHTTIME THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A CONFIDENT SNOWFALL
FCST, BUT GIVEN THIS IS A TIMING REPEAT OF MARCH 20TH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE. MARCH 20TH SHOWED
INTENSITY CAN TRUMP THE LATE MARCH SUN. THE HOURLY RATES
AT PEAK TIME DURING THIS AFTERNOON IS NEARING .1 WATER EQUIVALENT
PER HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO START ACCUMULATING.
BUT THIS OVERALL WINDOW IS SMALLER THAN THAT PREVIOUS EVENT.
ALSO THE INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CAN WARM THIS MORNING AND THIS
WILL PROLONG THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT LOWER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ
IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IS TO WILL THE HEAVIER PCPN REACH THAT FAR
NORTH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS YES, BUT THERE IS NOT UNIFORMITY.
THE GFS DIAGS DO SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THAT AREA, BUT THE EXIT REGION
OF THE 250MB JET AND BEST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE IS A BIT FTHR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A 45 KT LLJ FEEDING ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY AND THERE IS A BROAD 200MB OF LIFT PREDICTED AT 290K
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HERE GOES, PCPN MOVES IN NORTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE REST OF OUR CWA. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY ABOVE THE SFC AND EVAP COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ANY
BRIEF START OF RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS TO SNOW.
ELSEWHERE ITS THE LESS EFFICIENT DYNAMIC COOLING THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DO THE TRICK. OBVIOUSLY ELEVATION HELPS AS THE GFS PREDICTED
FREEZING LEVEL AT ABE DROPPING TO 800 FEET SHOWS. ALL THE MODELS
LOWER SFC TEMPS AND WBZS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE POCONOS, BUT
STRUGGLE ELSEWHERE. SO THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY FARTHER EAST
IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE NEXT TIER SOUTHWARD, THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THAT DO GET A COUPLE OF INCHES, NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE ADVISORY AREA WE BELIEVE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IF THE FGEN BANDING ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THIS LOCATION LATER
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
WE WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATICAL AS THE GFS LOWER TEMPS ARE
BANKING ON A FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL TIME. GIVE ITS ARRIVAL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND NAM MOS MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG
REASON. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE DATASETS.
06Z MODELS PRETTY MUCH HELD THEIR OWN. E.G. ABE FREEZING LEVEL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT 800 TO 900 FEET. 06Z MODEL QPF VERIFICATION
GEOGRAPHICALLY WAS GOOD WITH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT WET. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE OP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
OPTING FOR THE SLOWER MODEL TIMING, WE CARRIED PCPN INTO THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN NJ. EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
THE PREDICTED VORT MAX OVERNIGHT BECOMES QUITE CHANNELIZED AND
MODELS PREDICTED MOISTURE OVERALL MEAGER. WE CLEARED SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WE OPTED FOR A STAT GUIDANCE COMPROMISE FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS AN ACTIVE ONE BUT ALSO COMPRISED OF A
FAST FLOW REGIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
START WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, THEN INTO THE EAST SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS TROUGH REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD START TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN INCORPORATED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS WITH IT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
THEREFORE, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOME CAA AT LEAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A COOLER DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY /ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COLDER
OCEAN/. IT APPEARS THAT A LEAD SHORT WAVE GENERATES SOME SHOWERS
WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THESE MAY START TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FARTHER EAST THEREFORE WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP
INCREASE AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A DEEPENING MOIST PROFILE AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RESULTS IN A DECREASE IN
THE SHOWALTER VALUES, HOWEVER NO REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT. AS A RESULT THERE IS A QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT CHARGE
SEPARATION CAN TAKE PLACE AND THEREFORE WE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OF
THUNDER ATTM. AS MIXING INCREASES THURSDAY, A BREEZY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RESULT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS OR EVEN BANDS OF SHOWERS.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DATABASE. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
PULLING THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. AS SOME ENERGY
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST ONE SHOULD
DELAY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AND THEN THE SECOND
ONE TRACKS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. WE THEN KEPT LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
FOR SATURDAY THEN DRYING OVERTAKES THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TAILEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY REMAIN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, KEPT THIS TIMEFRAME
DRY WITH MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 12Z TAFS STILL BRING ALL OF OUR SITES TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE WIND DIRECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MORNING A MID LEVEL CIG ARRIVING, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE LATE AT
KABE AND KRDG. SOUTH TO SOUTH WEST WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON AT KABE AND KRDG CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR.
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE. ESP KABE. TARMAC ACCUMS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL KPHL AIRPORTS RAIN ARRIVES AND CIGS AND VSBYS
LOWERING TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KMIV AND
KACY SIMILAR EVOLUTION, BUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE TRICKY AS IT DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING IT TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS
ACROSS DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE A SLOW BACKING OF THE WINDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS BOTTOMING EAST OT IFR EARLY AND THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE EVENING. PCPN SHOULD END BY
04Z ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT SOME
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE KPHL AIRPORTS
SOUTHEASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH A VFR CIG BECOMING
CLEAR AND NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR OVERALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS LURKING NOT
TO FAR TO OUR WEST LATE AT NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY. POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE STARTED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN FROM THE GET GO WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT IS A BIT
DISJOINTED. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY WEAK, BUT IS PREDICTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THEN WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIR TEMPS RISE
OVER THE WATERS, BUT SWELLS FROM THE MORNING WINDS SHOULD REACH
CRITERIA. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A SCA LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND SURGE
TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER EXITS.
THE ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE DOWN THE BAY FLOW. WE WILL REACCESS THE BAY LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BUT THEN BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE AND BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS HOWEVER WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLDER WATERS, AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD THE
SEAS AND THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED. THE
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE SOME WITH THE SEAS AS THE
GFS IS A BIT TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS, THEREFORE WE STAYED
CLOSER TO CONTINUITY WHICH HAD THIS FACTORED IN.
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE WINDS COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS SOME COOLING
TAKES PLACE. THE SEAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN, BUT
TENDING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
854 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST
COAST HAS MERGED WITH WEST COAST SEABREEZE SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOWERS OVER CLAY/PUTNAM COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BE
SHORT LIVED DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH HRRR MODEL SHOWING
ACTIVITY ENDING BY 04Z. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AT
GNV MAINLY 08Z-12Z. EXPECT VFR ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EAST
WINDS WILL REACH 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 80 61 84 / 0 20 20 10
SSI 60 72 63 78 / 0 10 10 10
JAX 60 78 62 84 / 0 20 10 10
SGJ 63 75 63 80 / 10 10 10 0
GNV 60 82 61 84 / 0 20 20 0
OCF 60 83 61 84 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHULER/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
31/21Z RADAR AND SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A PLETHORA OF
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS GEORGIA... INCLUDING THE
REMNANTS OF A WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-16/I-75 INTERCHANGE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN TSTM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA INTERACTS WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW MUCH
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE H3R DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED BOW
ECHO/QLCS FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY MID-EVENING
WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS... MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-16 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...
ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REORIENT THE
POP SCHEME THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO TAKE SHORT TERM TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED...ROUGHLY FROM
METTER-HINESVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED THE
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND ONLY WEAK LATE-DAY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THUS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING
STRATOCUMULUS LATE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING/
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS EAST OF I-95...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 31/00 UTC GUIDANCE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...RANGING FROM A FAST OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OPERATIONAL EURO WHICH DEPICTS THE
FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NEEDED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. WATCHING UPSTREAM TSTM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN FOR
KSAV 02-06Z. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF TSRA JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.
WIND SHIFT WILL A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KCHS ROUGHLY
14Z...BUT WASHOUT BEFORE REACHING KSAV AND GETTING ENTANGLED WITH
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT
EITHER TERMINAL LATE THURSDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AS THE FROPA OCCURS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITERIA. HAVE MAINTAINED A CAP OF 15 KT WINDS IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 20 KT WINDS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE NE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
MEANWHILE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG BEGINNING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
509 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...31/21Z RADAR AND SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
PLETHORA OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES POSITIONED ACROSS GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF A WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-16/I-75 INTERCHANGE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN TSTM COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA INTERACTS
WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
EXACTLY HOW MUCH UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE H3R DEPICTS
AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/QLCS FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BY MID-EVENING WHILE THE LATEST RAP IS A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE.
EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED...
ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REORIENT THE
POP SCHEME THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO TAKE SHORT TERM TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. POPS UP TO 40 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED...ROUGHLY FROM
METTER-HINESVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED THE
PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND ONLY WEAK LATE-DAY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THUS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING
STRATOCUMULUS LATE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING/
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS EAST OF I-95...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 31/00 UTC GUIDANCE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...RANGING FROM A FAST OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OPERATIONAL EURO WHICH DEPICTS THE
FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NEEDED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
18Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THE
SAV TERMINAL COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING AT BOTH TERMINALS...PEAKING
AROUND 20 KTS FROM 19-23Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT
EITHER TERMINAL LATE THURSDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AS THE FROPA OCCURS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITERIA. HAVE MAINTAINED A CAP OF 15 KT WINDS IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 20 KT WINDS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE NE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
MEANWHILE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG BEGINNING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
104 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND DIRECTIONS TODAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-NORTHEAST
(350-020 DEG) WINDS EARLY SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT MDW.
* POTENTIAL FOR LOWER MVFR/HIGHER END IFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF IT RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 TO EVEN
30 KT OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND LAKE INFLUENCE COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO ORD/MDW BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND
14Z. LOW CIGS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ALSO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD...AIDED BY THE LAKE INFLUENCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...SO HAVE ADDED SCT010 IN ORD/MDW/GYY TAFS FROM 13Z TO 15Z.
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT GYY...WHICH WILL HOLD ONTO NORTHERLY WINDS GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME HEADWAY
INLAND...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR. HAVE INDICATED A WIND
SHIFT IN THE MDW TAF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT BROUGHT THE
SHIFT TO ORD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS COULD THEN REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 9Z-10Z TODAY...LOW
THEREAFTER.
* LOW IN LOW CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SHRA/SOME TSRA LIKELY. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF
1040AM THE TEMPERATURE AT EISENHOWER AIRPORT WAS ALREADY 70
DEGREES WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER FORECAST WHICH WAS ONE OF
MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND USED THAT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. INCREASED
HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.
WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE LOW STRATUS THAT IS
EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO RETURN WITH
IT AND FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEPT AND ADDED
LOW STRATUS TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. DID ADJUST TIMING
SLIGHTLY. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW STRATUS
BUILDS IN. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THEY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING WHICH WILL HELP TO ERODETHE
LOW STRATUS AND IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 57 85 55 / 0 10 10 40
HUTCHINSON 84 55 86 51 / 0 10 10 50
NEWTON 83 56 84 52 / 0 10 10 50
ELDORADO 83 56 83 55 / 0 10 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 57 83 57 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELL 85 55 88 46 / 0 0 20 50
GREAT BEND 84 55 87 47 / 0 10 20 50
SALINA 84 55 87 49 / 0 10 10 70
MCPHERSON 84 55 85 50 / 0 10 10 60
COFFEYVILLE 84 56 80 61 / 0 10 20 30
CHANUTE 81 56 79 58 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 80 55 80 57 / 0 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 83 56 80 60 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
MOISTURE FROM OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LOW VIS WILL GET
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND BR. FOR NOW, WILL TREND
DOWN AND PUT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KDDC FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN MVFR AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS CERTAINTY INCREASES
WITH TIME. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
KGCK/KHYS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 54 89 46 / 0 10 40 50
GCK 82 51 89 42 / 0 0 40 40
EHA 80 51 86 43 / 0 0 20 10
LBL 82 52 89 45 / 10 0 30 10
HYS 83 53 86 44 / 0 0 40 50
P28 83 55 87 52 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1046 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF
1040AM THE TEMPERATURE AT EISENHOWER AIRPORT WAS ALREADY 70
DEGREES WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER FORECAST WHICH WAS ONE OF
MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND USED THAT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. INCREASED
HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.
WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ES
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RICH MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG OVER SE KS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS MOISTURE RICH AIR
MOVES BACK NORTH...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE INITIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES AFTER 09Z/WED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR SOME MVFR FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS JUST
YET...AS WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.
KETCHAM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 85 57 85 55 / 0 10 10 40
HUTCHINSON 84 55 86 51 / 0 10 10 50
NEWTON 83 56 84 52 / 0 10 10 50
ELDORADO 82 56 83 55 / 0 10 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 85 57 83 57 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELL 84 55 88 46 / 0 0 20 50
GREAT BEND 83 55 87 47 / 0 10 20 50
SALINA 83 55 87 49 / 0 0 10 70
MCPHERSON 83 55 85 50 / 0 10 10 60
COFFEYVILLE 84 56 80 61 / 0 10 20 30
CHANUTE 81 56 79 58 / 0 10 20 40
IOLA 80 55 80 57 / 0 10 20 50
PARSONS-KPPF 83 56 80 60 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
701 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TIMEFRAME AT ALL TAF
SITES, HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF DDC AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADS
NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 52 86 46 / 10 10 30 20
GCK 81 49 87 42 / 10 10 30 20
EHA 82 49 86 43 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 82 49 88 45 / 10 10 20 20
HYS 79 51 85 44 / 0 10 30 30
P28 84 55 86 52 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.
DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 81 53 85 47 / 10 10 20 20
GCK 81 50 87 45 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 82 50 85 45 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 82 52 87 46 / 10 10 20 20
HYS 79 53 84 45 / 0 10 30 30
P28 84 55 84 53 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF MID-EVENING...AS INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED SINCE THE SETTING
SUN. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO SE OK/ECNTRL TX...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA STAGE RIGHT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE 00Z NAM
HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING AREA OF -SHRA POORLY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS
NOT...AND MAINTAINS THESE -SHRA OVER DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E WITH THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS WORKED OVER FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS LATE. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN RESULTING
IN GUSTY SRLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO ANALYZE THE ENTIRE SUITE OF 00Z DATA
TONIGHT...WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADJUST POPS PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL
LA. DID LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE THURSDAY...AS THE
TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS...AS WINDS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 10-15 KTS AND SOME VARIABLE HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR 25 KTS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ROAMING AROUND...NAMELY
KSHV/KMLU. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING ACROSS CNTRL TX
AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLD TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
ABOUT OUR NEXT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WE WILL
AMEND FOR ANY SUCH WITH FURTHER DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RETURN ONCE AGAIN LINGERING INTO MID
MORNING. CLIMB WINDS ARE SW 10-25KTS VEERING TO WEST BY 10KFT.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 81 68 80 / 30 20 10 40
MLU 64 83 66 81 / 30 20 10 50
DEQ 63 78 64 74 / 20 20 30 40
TXK 65 80 66 77 / 30 20 20 40
ELD 64 82 66 79 / 30 20 10 40
TYR 66 82 68 78 / 30 20 10 40
GGG 67 82 68 79 / 30 20 10 40
LFK 67 84 69 80 / 40 20 10 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT MVFR CIGS IN COLD ADVECTION BEING SWEPT SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE ARE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
GENERAL VFR EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS BY 02-03Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS WELL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING SOME MID DECK TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY MAINLY KPIT NORTH.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE LATER THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
522 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM
CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS
AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE
APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING
THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME
SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN
MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED
CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED
CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT
TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE
WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS.
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS
SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA
TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE
BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN
AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS
LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING
THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER
10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHSN.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
923 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF MOVING LIKELY/CAT POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH GIVEN RAP/HRRR RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS. RAIN/SNOW LINE
IS HOLDING NORTH AS EXPECTED. DID NOT SIGNFICANTLY ALTER SNOW
EXPECTATIONS. TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.
AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.
MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
525 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 530AM UPDATE...HAVE EDGED GRADIENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE
NORTH...BROADER SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS MOSTLY OVER
MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. 06Z NAM AND 07Z HRRR ALSO SHOW THIS
CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IF THESE MODEL RUNS VERIFY...THEN
FORECAST OF LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS MAY STILL BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN
SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO
THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR
AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE
AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY
CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY
LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW
TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE
40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE
ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON
SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL
NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS
PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND
DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS
SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA.
AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO
THE NORTH...NORTHWEST.
MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM.
.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING E OF THE REGION WILL BRING TO AN END SCT
-SHSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW. AT KIWD...EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FM MVFR TO VFR ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT KCMX AND KSAW...EVEN AFTER THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER A LOW-LVL E-NE UPSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
KSAW AND KCMX BY LATE WED MORNING WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WINDS
BECOMING SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO (NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR) SUPPORTED
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WAS LOCATED NORTH OF KINL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER UPPER WAS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRES SYSTEM.
TODAY...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHRTWV WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES TODAY BRINGING AREAS OF PCPN TO THE CWA. THE
SFC LOW TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI. AFTER TEMPS
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT ENOUGH WARMING AHEAD OF THE
LOW FOR MAINLY RAIN OVER THE WEST...PER NAM FCST WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS. THE GREATEST CHANCES/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN LINE WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA/QVECTOR
CONV. SNOWFALL ARRIVING AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON
WED...WITH A SFC-850MB TROUGH MOVING TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 00Z
THU...WELL E OF THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW VARYING MAGNITUDES
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT PREFER THE DRIER OPTIONS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY LOW-
MID LEVEL AIR. THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z THU. RAIN WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE
TROUGH...BUT WITH IT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONVECTION TO THE S AND SW OF THE AREA...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE W. AS THE TROUGH CATCHES UP WITH THE BETTER
WAA OVER ERN UPPER MI WED EVENING/NIGHT WILL SHOW INCREASES POPS/QPF
GIVEN BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDER CHANCES
ALONG THE WI BORDER ON WED EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES WED
NIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING FADES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SLY WINDS OVER WRN
UPPER MI. ERN AND MAYBE EVEN CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL BE DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND...THEREFORE...WILL BE MORE STABLE AND COOLER DURING
THE DAY. HAVE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WRN U.P.
AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN ON THU...LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST BEHIND
THE TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST MIXING AS HIGH AS 700MB...WHICH WOULD TAP
INTO SOME DRY AIR AND BRING SFC DEW POINTS DOWN. ALSO...IT WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE W...WHICH WILL HELP EVEN ERN UPPER MI SEE WARMER
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST
SCENTRAL. FORTUNATELY...STILL HAVE DECENT SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE U.P. AS THIS PATTERN IS ONE OF THE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER DAYS
FROM PAST U.P. FIRES.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE FROM THE WED SYSTEM MOVES OVER THU
EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR /850MB TEMPS TO -12C/ AND ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS
FAVORED BY NW WINDS. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY UNCERTAIN...COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THU EVENING/NIGHT.
FRI THROUGH MON LOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON
SAT...LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODEL DO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON MON/TUE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP. GIVEN HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY FRI THROUGH MON...WILL USE A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE STRATUS IFR CIGS AT CMX
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL
RAOB ASSOCAITED WITH HI PRES NEAR ERN LK SUP...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREDOMINATE. A DISTURBANCE APRCHG FM THE NW TODAY WL MOVE OVER
UPR MI...BRINGING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME -SN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RA TO
MAINLY CMX AND SAW...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES. SINCE LESS PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AT
IWD...FCST ONLY A MARGINAL MVFR CONDITION AT THAT SITE. EVEN AFTER
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...SOME LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT CMX
AND ESPECIALLY SAW...WHERE A LLVL UPSLOPE NNE WIND WL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF APRCHG HI PRES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
659 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
Update for mainly PoP adjustments based largely on latest RADAR
trends. Trended twd the local 4km WRF and HRRR solns. However,
some question still remains how far NE these SHRA will hold
together. TS is becoming more isod with loss of insolation and
believe this trend will continue thru the evening. The area of
SHRA shud also gradually dissipate and become more isod to sct.
Will continue to monitor as the system develops.
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
MCV moving into southwest Missouri is producing an area of rain with
embedded thunderstorms. This activity is moving northeast and
should enter the CWFA around 21Z. Have therefore raised PoPs to
likely for parts of central Missouri. Not sure how far
north/northeast the rain is going to get though as some fairly dry
mid-level air as shown by AMDAR soundings from KSTL this afternoon.
However, the 850mb flow will be turning to the southwest and the
atmosphere will be moistening up...so PoPs may not be high enough
over some parts of the area this evening.
Attention turns to the cold front over the Plains and what will be
forming out there tonight. Guidance suggests that the storms will
form over Nebraska this evening and move southeast overnight.
Current thinking is that the leading edge of the precipitation will
enter the northern portion of the CWFA between 09Z and 12Z. Storms
should be on the downward trend at that point, but with MUCAPE still
potentially at or above 1000 J/kg, and around 40kts of deep layer
shear, strong storms remain a possibility across northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois before sunrise Thursday.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
Active cold front to move through region on Thursday. Will see
initial activity that forms ahead of front slide southeast and
diminish by 15z. Then a bit of a break before more intense round
develops during the afternoon hours. Will see MU capes approach 1500
J/kg, mainly along and south of I70 and PW values around 1.3".
Despite the cloud cover from the morning activity, any breaks in the
cloud cover will help to destabilize the atmosphere even more. Some
of the storms could be strong to severe with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds. As for high temps, they will range
from the upper 60s far north to the low to mid 70s south.
Front to stall out over southern portions of forecast area Thursday
night and will see several waves of precipitation through Friday,
with best chances along and south of I-70. Lows Thursday night will
be in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Then colder air to filter in on
Friday as system slowly sinks south away from region. Will see non
diurnal temps, either steady or slowly falling. Highs will only be
in the low 50s far north to the low 60s far south.
Then dry weather expected for the weekend as surface ridge builds
in, with temperatures slowly moderating. Highs on Saturday will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s then warm up into the mid 60s everywhere
on Sunday.
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Beyond that, active pattern begins with systems sliding northeast
towards forecast area through mid week next week. Extended models
have differences in timing with these systems, so just kept chance
pops through the period. Showers and thunderstorms to move in Sunday
night and continue off and on through next Wednesday. Highs will be
in the 60s and 70s through this period.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
Area of showers with embedded thunderstorms over southwest
Missouri will continue moving northeast this afternoon. Not sure
what the coverage will be as it gets into our forecast area, but
scattered seems likely. Flight conditions should remain VFR except
under heavier rain/thunderstorms. Rain should dissipate slowly
through mid to late evening as it continues moving northeast.
Still expecting LLWS conditions tonight as the low level jet
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop tonight over Nebraska and move southeast ahead
of the front and should push into northeast Missouri between
10-12Z. Storms should be weakening as the move into our area, but
will likely still be strong enough to produce MVFR and possibly
brief IFR conditions. As the storms continue to move east into
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois they will continue to
weaken until there will be little if any thunder left by 14-16Z.
Another round of strong storms is expected ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Area of showers with embedded thunderstorms over southwest
Missouri will continue moving northeast this afternoon. Believe
the rain will be dissipating as it moves toward the STL Metro area
this evening, but several pieces of guidance do show thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the terminal for a short time this evening. Flight
conditions should remain VFR unless a thunderstorm hits the terminal
directly. Still expecting LLWS conditions tonight as the low level
jet increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop tonight over Nebraska and move southeast
ahead of the the front. By the time the storms reach Lambert
around 14Z they should be weakening. Another round of strong
storms is expected ahead of the front Thursday afternoon.
Carney
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 60 74 53 56 / 60 80 80 70
Quincy 58 68 46 50 / 60 80 30 50
Columbia 60 71 48 53 / 70 80 70 60
Jefferson City 59 72 50 54 / 70 80 80 60
Salem 57 72 54 57 / 20 80 80 80
Farmington 60 72 54 58 / 50 70 80 80
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Tonight - Thursday:
In the very near term an area of convection tied to a pesky MCV over
southwestern MO is expected to track northeast and graze the far
southeast CWA through early evening. Have increased PoPs over this
region to account for this.
Attention then turns back to the west and northwest and focuses on
two areas...the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western
KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible
satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts
baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture taking its time to arrive.
Latest NAM/RAP suggest CIN may not be eroded till closer to 00Z.
Still expect a line of convection to form this evening with the
front sliding east-southeast overnight. This activity expected to
reach far northwest MO towards midnight and then continue across
northern MO. Second area being watched is the KS accas and 12z NAM
defined a h7 shortwave/vorticity max that will move out of CO this
evening. Last several runs of the convective allowing HRRR generates
an expanding area of elevated convection which tracks east
overnight, crossing the KS/MO border after midnight. 18z NAM qpf
hints at this convection but delays the arrival till after 09z. Will
side towards the HRRR for now.
While the severe threat will be greatly muted due to its arrival
time and minimal instability some generous qpf is possible over our
northern and western counties. The latter due to the southerly low
level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which
could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
Convection likely to exit the CWA quickly from west to east
Thursday morning. However, model consensus indicates the front will
stall just south of the CWA, close enough that low chance afternoon
PoPs necessary across the far southern counties to account for
potential late afternoon redevelopment.
Thursday night - Friday night:
The aforementioned stalled front will likely remain just south of
the CWA during this period. However, post frontal stratiform or weak
elevated convective rains are likely north of the boundary Thursday
night into Friday morning. An upper level trough is progged to shift
eastward within a pseudo westerly flow with pieces of energy
ejecting ahead of it through the Central Plains. This should allow
for some isentropically induced rain to form and affect most of the
CWA. The rain chances will end by Friday afternoon with the passage
of the trough axis. Temperatures will be on the cool side and hover
in the 50s all day.
Clearing skies, light winds and cool high pressure will probably
send Sat morning lows to freezing or below.....with a good chance
for a frost.
Saturday - Sunday:
Should be a rather benign weekend with weak ridging aloft
translating eastward and surface pressure falls across the plains
generating a southerly breeze. Should be a very pleasant weekend
with above average temperatures.
Sunday night - Wednesday:
Looks like an unsettled pattern. Southwesterly flow sets up with the
passage of the upper ridge allowing for increasing moist warm air
advection. Considerable model uncertainty on PoPs and timing of the
next cold front. GFS is much faster and brings a cold front through
Monday night in response to a fast moving shortwave coming out of
the desert southwest on Monday whereas the 12z ECMWF shows no sign
of this wave...maybe A poor reflection by 12z Tuesday. In any event,
there is the potential for a couple pieces of weak energy to be
embedded within the southwesterly flow and give us a chance for some
convection. Temperatures are likely to remain above average for the
first part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Storms erupting along a front over Nebraska will reach their peak
intensity over the next few hours, then weaken quite a bit before
they reach the KS/MO area early Thurs morning. Still expect about a
2-3 hour window of rain/isolated thunderstorms as the front moves
through. Winds will likely remain elevated overnight ahead of the
front with occasional gusts to 25 mph.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
241 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
AREAS OF FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD HAVE KEPT OUR TEMPS AND MIXED
WINDS A BIT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS OF 2 PM
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD HINDER OUR
PREFRONTAL TSTM POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD WORDING
INTO THE EVENING AS THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING AT. LOOKING
WEST...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE EAST OF MISSOULA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 1MB/HR NOTED FROM SALMON TO BUTTE AND
HELENA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. TIMING DEPICTED BY
MODELS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTION. H3 JET IS PARALLEL
TO FRONT IN CENTRAL MT WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...AND IN FACT PRESSURE RISES ARE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
OREGON NOW...SO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.
EXPECT A FRONT TO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 02Z...BILLINGS 04Z AND
MILES CITY/SHERIDAN 06Z. W-NW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THIS FROPA. COULD SEE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
SECONDARY PV MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
WILL SEE A LITTLE SNOWFALL AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -12C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. LIVINGSTON MAY ALSO WET BULB DOWN TO A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. WE WILL BE
VERY WELL-MIXED ON WEDNESDAY AND PER VERY DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT
SFC DEWPTS TO REALLY CRASH...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FROM BILLINGS
WEST...RESULTING IN TEENS FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DESPITE THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RHS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN OUR EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFTED INDICES
NEAR ZERO EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MTNS
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO WEAKLY COLD ADVECT AS THE FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS MANY AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER E MT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT
AREA ON FRI. FRI WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SAT ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. MODEL COMPROMISE GAVE HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SAT THROUGH SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS AGREED ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAD DRY-SLOTTING PUSHING UP INTO
THE AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE DRY
SLOT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE POPS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HAD HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MON AND TUE. TUE LOOKS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MON DUE TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KLVM AROUND 02Z...KBIL
AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 06Z AND KSHR AROUND 05Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE NW ON WED.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/056 033/049 031/056 033/059 034/056 035/055 033/056
31/N 13/W 31/B 01/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 035/050 027/047 025/053 031/054 028/052 030/050 028/052
54/W 24/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 040/058 030/050 028/058 030/062 033/059 034/058 031/059
31/N 12/W 21/B 01/B 21/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 041/058 031/049 028/055 030/060 032/058 033/055 031/055
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
4BQ 041/057 031/048 025/054 028/061 031/058 032/057 031/057
21/N 02/W 11/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
BHK 039/056 029/045 024/052 026/058 028/054 028/049 028/050
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 037/054 028/047 025/052 026/059 029/057 032/055 030/055
22/W 13/W 21/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
238 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
AREAS OF FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD HAVE KEPT OUR TEMPS AND MIXED
WINDS A BIT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS OF 2 PM
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD HINDER OUR
PREFRONTAL TSTM POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD WORDING
INTO THE EVENING AS THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING AT. LOOKING
WEST...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE EAST OF MISSOULA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 1MB/HR NOTED FROM SALMON TO BUTTE AND
HELENA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. TIMING DEPICTED BY
MODELS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTION. H3 JET IS PARALLEL
TO FRONT IN CENTRAL MT WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...AND IN FACT PRESSURE RISES ARE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
OREGON NOW...SO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.
EXPECT A FRONT TO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 02Z...BILLINGS 04Z AND
MILES CITY/SHERIDAN 06Z. W-NW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THIS FROPA. COULD SEE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
SECONDARY PV MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
WILL SEE A LITTLE SNOWFALL AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -12C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. LIVINGSTON MAY ALSO WET BULB DOWN TO A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. WE WILL BE
VERY WELL-MIXED ON WEDNESDAY AND PER VERY DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT
SFC DEWPTS TO REALLY CRASH...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FROM BILLINGS
WEST...RESULTING IN TEENS FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DESPITE THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RHS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN OUR EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFTED INDICES
NEAR ZERO EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MTNS
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO WEAKLY COLD ADVECT AS THE FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS MANY AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER E MT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT
AREA ON FRI. FRI WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SAT ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. MODEL COMPROMISE GAVE HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SAT THROUGH SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS AGREED ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAD DRY-SLOTTING PUSHING UP INTO
THE AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE DRY
SLOT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE POPS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HAD HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MON AND TUE. TUE LOOKS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MON DUE TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KLVM AROUND 02Z...KBIL
AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 06Z AND KSHR AROUND 05Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT.
WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE NW ON WED.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS ON WED. LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST ON WED. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/055 033/049 031/056 033/059 034/056 035/055 033/056
31/N 13/W 31/B 01/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 035/050 027/047 025/053 031/054 028/052 030/050 028/052
54/W 24/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 040/058 030/050 028/058 030/062 033/059 034/058 031/059
31/N 12/W 21/B 01/B 21/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 041/058 031/049 028/055 030/060 032/058 033/055 031/055
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
4BQ 041/057 031/048 025/054 028/061 031/058 032/057 031/057
21/N 02/W 11/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
BHK 039/056 029/045 024/052 026/058 028/054 028/049 028/050
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 037/053 028/047 025/052 026/059 029/057 032/055 030/055
22/W 13/W 21/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SEVERE WATCH 15 WAS ISSUED EARLIER VALID UNTIL 06Z. STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. BELIEVE THIS MAY TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.
FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.
DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER KOFK AT
TAF ISSUANCE. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE EAST OF KOFK BY 01Z.
KLNK/KOMA WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.
STORMS ARRIVE AT KLNK BY 03Z AND KOMA BY 04Z. STORMS AFFECT THESE
TWO LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN VFR AFTERWARD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE ARE A FEW MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE
OR TWO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ADD A
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND A VCSH ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT. NOT
AS CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL PICK UP AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND A VCSH ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT. NOT
AS CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN
PICK UP AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LATE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND A VCSH ACROSS THE NORTH INCLUDING KISN AND KMOT. NOT
AS CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS REACHING THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
910 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FIRST FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SW INTO
THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THE CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE
WNW AND THE CIRRUS TO THE SW ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA.
DUE TO CALLABORATION WILL ONLY ALLOW SKY COVER TO RAMP UP TO 30 TO
40% IN THE SE AND EAST.
HRRR AND RUC STILL HOLDING OFF PRECIP NEARING THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
12Z SO CONTINUETO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BY 06Z THEN TEMPS MAY START TO DRIFT UP A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH 12Z AS MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH START TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A WARM AND PROBABLY BUSY DAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AREAS EAST OF I-71 SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. MU CAPES GET TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL HEAR THUNDER FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NEVER GET
OUT OF THE PRECIP FRIDAY BUT A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES FOR TOMORROW. THINK
THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS PART OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
PUT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A MIXED WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR UNTIL MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH TOLEDO
BY THE END OF THURSDAY AND CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON THURSDAY.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS COLD FRONT SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING
00Z NAM AND THE MOST RECENT RAP RUNS DEPICTING IMPROVING MOIST
UPGLIDE IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FT AGL LAYER FROM THE SW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. AS THE WEAK
UPGLIDE AND SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES TOWARD DAYBREAK...ISOLD TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SRN MTNS AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN IN PROFILES THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY
EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SRLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING EASTWARD TO INTERSTATE 77. THE SOLIDIFYING CLOUD DECK
SHOULD KEEP MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE THU AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF IN SITU
SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOIST UPGLIDE...A PHASING SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE PLAINS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY IN SRN SECTIONS MAY PERMIT ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS TO CROSS THE SRN TIER DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DAMPING INTO THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN. FINGER OF STABILITY ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
BEST THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. NOT ENOUGH DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SOAR BACK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS AND BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE FRIDAY LATE EVENING AND NIGHT WHEN
OF COURSE DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD MINIMIZE CAPE POTENTIAL...BUT EVEN
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS DOES BRING A BAND OF SBCAPE BETWEEN 100-
300 J/KG INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. THE CONCERN IS THAT THIS
INSTABILITY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS COLLOCATED WITH 60+KT 0-6KM SHEAR...
AND 30-40KT 0-1KM SHEAR. SHERB VALUES OVERALL REMAIN BELOW 1 BUT
SREF SHERB PLUME FORECASTS FOR THE AREA DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME SREF
MEMBERS CREEPING ABOVE 1. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK OVERNIGHT DID INTRODUCE
MARGINAL RISK INTO THE MOUNTAINS SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION.
ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THAT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS AND EVEN IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ALL POPS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
18Z SATURDAY LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE PRETTY NICE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY/S FRONT...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
LEADING TO A NICE EASTER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT BY THIS POINT HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT QPF VALUES AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...WITH GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST ON MONDAY THAN
THE ECMWF...AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES PUSHES INTO
THE PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BUT AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MIGHT SET UP. GFS WANTS TO KEEP A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
THE MOIST FETCH A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES
AND RESULTING FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THUNDER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AT VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WITH A
STRATOCUMULUS CIG LIKELY BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. DEEPENING MOIST
UPGLIDE WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES
LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT PRESENT. LIGHT ESE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SRLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...VFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP FROM S TO N ACROSS
THE MTN AND FOOTHILL TAFS TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING AT KAVL AND THE SC SITES AS
THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS. THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS/MOS ON IFR CIGS FROM KAVL TO KGSP AND POINTS S BY EARLY
AFTN...BUT THE IFR CIGS COULD BE TEMPO MVFR ALL AFTN. WILL MENTION
VCSH WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGHOUT...AND LIMIT PROB30 FOR
TSRA TO KAND WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH MORE UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE TERMINAL AREA LATE DAY. EXPECT
EASTERLY WINDS TO TOGGLE SOUTHERLY OVER TIME...BUT PERHAPS ADJUST
BACK TO EASTERLY IN ANY WEAK CAD REGIONS FROM KGMU TO KHKY.
OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PROMOTE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 77%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 89% MED 73%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 82% HIGH 84% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 91% MED 61% MED 68%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 87% MED 69% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM JUST EAST OF FSD THIS EVENING ALONG
AN ADVANCING LOW LVL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF FSD. AT KSUX...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT IN NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION COULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLIP THE AIRPORT WITHIN A THE
STRATIFORM REGION AFTER 02Z.
OTHERWISE...ONCE CONVECTION MOVES EAST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER GUSTY...BUT VFR...DAY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.
THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery spring weather pattern will continue through
the week and into the weekend. Nighttime freezing temperatures
will be common over the next 7 days with daytime temperatures in
the 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A trough of cold air is squarely over the Pac
NW today. This creates a very unstable atmosphere with steep lapse
rates. Surface afternoon heating is all we`ll need to realize this
instability into showers. The limiting factor will be moisture;
there`s not a lot of it. Surface dew points are generally in the
20s. Showers will develop by midday and gradually die off after
sunset. The northeast mountains and the central Panhandle will be
favored in this pattern, with the lowest chance of showers in the
Columbia Basin. The northwest flow means that showers that develop
over the Selkirks could move into the Spokane/CdA metro area in
the late afternoon.
The cold dry air means that some of the precipitation could be in
the form of snow or graupel. This also isn`t good for the
thunderstorm potential, as Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) will
have temperatures of -5C or colder, which is often too cold for
much lightning.
Freezing temperatures are expected in many areas tonight. Much of
our area still hasn`t started its growing season. But the Moses
Lake area has, so a Freeze Warning will be issued for there.
Lewiston and Wenatchee will likely be in the mid 30s tonight.
Thursday and Thursday Night: The cold air aloft moves to the east
into Montana. As such, the atmosphere in the Inland Northwest will
stablize somewhat. So shower activity should be less on Thursday.
The favored location for showers will be in the Panhandle
mountains. RJ
Friday through Saturday night: A cold upper level low pressure
system will dig off of the west coast. Models are in good
agreement that a shortwave swinging around this upper level low
will push across a cold front around the Friday afternoon into
Friday night time frame. The upper level dynamics with this system
looks to weaken as it pushes further inland away from its parent
upper low. This should translate into more of a weak to moderately
strong cold front passage. Best forcing would be across the
northern portion of the forecast area where precip chances will be
highest. Precip type is expected to be in the form of valley rain
and mountain snow showers. Snow levels will drop behind the front
with diurnally driven rain/graupel showers possible for the
afternoon on Saturday.
...VALLEY SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sunday through Wednesday: The cold upper level trough of low
pressure in the eastern Pacific will dig further down the coast
through the weekend. A second shortwave disturbance will rotate
around the upper trough and push across OR, the ID Panhandle and
into western MT. There is general agreement amongst the mid range
model guidance that this piece of energy will maintain its
strength as it moves inland. The second piece of energy will be
working with stronger jet dynamics that will help to fuel
cyclogenesis at lower levels in the atmosphere. The track of the
surface low and its intensity is still a matter of great
uncertainty at this time. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions show
more of a westerly track to the surface low across the ID
Panhandle. This would lend to a better chance for drawing down
colder air from the north with a deformation band developing
across western MT and across the ID Panhandle. If this solution
verifies, then there is a chance for snow down to valley floors.
A couple of inches of snow or more in the valleys would not be out
of the question; However, there is too much uncertainty amongst
the model guidance to put much confidence in this scenario, but it
will be a situation worth monitoring as the weekend approaches.
The upper level low in the eastern Pacific is progged to open up
and push into the western U.S. for early next week with the
weather over the Inland Northwest remaining unsettled. Showers
are more likely to be diurnal in nature. Temperatures are
expected to be below normal through the weekend into early next
week. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will remain over the region into
Wednesday. The atmosphere will destabilize Wednesday afternoon
promoting scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
especially over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
Several type of precipitation are possible with these
showers...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel. Gusty
outflow winds will also be possible. Given that there is only a
slight chance of thunderstorms left mention out of all TAF sites.
Thermal temperature profiles suggest the Idaho Panhandle having
the best opportunity for isolated thunderstorms. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 30 53 33 54 29 / 50 30 10 10 10 30
Coeur d`Alene 49 28 52 30 54 27 / 70 40 30 20 20 40
Pullman 48 31 49 33 54 33 / 50 30 20 10 10 30
Lewiston 53 33 54 33 59 34 / 40 20 20 10 10 40
Colville 53 30 57 32 55 28 / 60 30 20 10 20 40
Sandpoint 50 28 52 28 52 28 / 70 40 30 30 20 50
Kellogg 44 29 47 31 50 30 / 70 60 30 40 20 40
Moses Lake 58 30 59 33 59 31 / 20 0 0 0 10 20
Wenatchee 58 37 60 38 58 33 / 20 0 0 10 20 40
Omak 57 32 60 33 58 28 / 40 10 10 10 30 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake
Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
259 AM PDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and showery spring weather pattern will continue through
the week and into the weekend. Nighttime freezing temperatures
will be common over the next 7 days with daytime temperatures in
the 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A trough of cold air is squarely over the Pac
NW today. This creates a very unstable atmosphere with steep lapse
rates. Surface afternoon heating is all we`ll need to realize this
instability into showers. The limiting factor will be moisture;
there`s not a lot of it. Surface dew points are generally in the
20s. Showers will develop by midday and gradually die off after
sunset. The northeast mountains and the central Panhandle will be
favored in this pattern, with the lowest chance of showers in the
Columbia Basin. The northwest flow means that showers that develop
over the Selkirks could move into the Spokane/CdA metro area in
the late afternoon.
The cold dry air means that some of the precipitation could be in
the form of snow or graupel. This also isn`t good for the
thunderstorm potential, as Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) will
have temperatures of -5C or colder, which is often too cold for
much lightning.
Freezing temperatures are expected in many areas tonight. Much of
our area still hasn`t started its growing season. But the Moses
Lake area has, so a Freeze Warning will be issued for there.
Lewiston and Wenatchee will likely be in the mid 30s tonight.
Thursday and Thursday Night: The cold air aloft moves to the east
into Montana. As such, the atmosphere in the Inland Northwest will
stablize somewhat. So shower activity should be less on Thursday.
The favored location for showers will be in the Panhandle
mountains. RJ
Friday through Saturday night: A cold upper level low pressure
system will dig off of the west coast. Models are in good
agreement that a shortwave swinging around this upper level low
will push across a cold front around the Friday afternoon into
Friday night time frame. The upper level dynamics with this system
looks to weaken as it pushes further inland away from its parent
upper low. This should translate into more of a weak to moderately
strong cold front passage. Best forcing would be across the
northern portion of the forecast area where precip chances will be
highest. Precip type is expected to be in the form of valley rain
and mountain snow showers. Snow levels will drop behind the front
with diurnally driven rain/graupel showers possible for the
afternoon on Saturday.
...VALLEY SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sunday through Wednesday: The cold upper level trough of low
pressure in the eastern Pacific will dig further down the coast
through the weekend. A second shortwave disturbance will rotate
around the upper trough and push across OR, the ID Panhandle and
into western MT. There is general agreement amongst the mid range
model guidance that this piece of energy will maintain its
strength as it moves inland. The second piece of energy will be
working with stronger jet dynamics that will help to fuel
cyclogenesis at lower levels in the atmosphere. The track of the
surface low and its intensity is still a matter of great
uncertainty at this time. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions show
more of a westerly track to the surface low across the ID
Panhandle. This would lend to a better chance for drawing down
colder air from the north with a deformation band developing
across western MT and across the ID Panhandle. If this solution
verifies, then there is a chance for snow down to valley floors.
A couple of inches of snow or more in the valleys would not be out
of the question; However, there is too much uncertainty amongst
the model guidance to put much confidence in this scenario, but it
will be a situation worth monitoring as the weekend approaches.
The upper level low in the eastern Pacific is progged to open up
and push into the western U.S. for early next week with the
weather over the Inland Northwest remaining unsettled. Showers
are more likely to be diurnal in nature. Temperatures are
expected to be below normal through the weekend into early next
week. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will remain over the region into
Wednesday. The atmosphere will destabilize Wednesday afternoon
promoting scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
especially over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
Several type of precipitation are possible with these
showers...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel. Gusty
outflow winds will also be possible. Given that there is only a
slight chance of thunderstorms left mention out of all TAF sites.
Thermal temperature profiles suggest the Idaho Panhandle having
the best opportunity for isolated thunderstorms. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 30 53 33 54 29 / 50 30 10 10 10 30
Coeur d`Alene 49 28 52 30 54 27 / 70 40 30 20 20 40
Pullman 48 31 49 33 54 33 / 50 30 20 10 10 30
Lewiston 53 33 54 33 59 34 / 40 20 20 10 10 40
Colville 53 30 57 32 55 28 / 60 30 20 10 20 40
Sandpoint 50 28 52 28 52 28 / 70 40 30 30 20 50
Kellogg 44 29 47 31 50 30 / 70 60 30 40 20 40
Moses Lake 58 30 59 33 59 31 / 20 0 0 0 10 20
Wenatchee 58 37 60 38 58 33 / 20 0 0 10 20 40
Omak 57 32 60 33 58 28 / 40 10 10 10 30 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake
Area.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1031 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: The cold front responsible for the windy conditions over
much of Central and Eastern Washington today has shifted east of
the area with cooler and drier air moving in behind the front. Dew
points have fallen into the upper teens and 20s in many areas due
to the drier air. Radar this evening showed a few areas of showers
that linger. A cold pool aloft with 500mb temps down to -33C
combined with low level upslope flow is resulting in showers
across southeast Washington extending into the Central Panhandle
Mountains mainly over the high terrain. Showers also linger near
the Cascade crest with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone resulting in
a band of moderate snow between Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie Pass.
Radar trends as well as the HRRR suggest the heaviest snow tonight
should stay south of Stevens Pass although some travel impacts are
still possible between Stevens Pass and Leavenworth. Outside of
these areas most of the Inland Northwest is expected to remain dry
tonight. Pressure gradients will also be decreasing tonight which
combined with less mixing potential with the loss of daytime
heating will lead to decreasing winds through the night. However
very few changes were made to the forecast tonight. Main update
was to make slight changes to winds this evening based on latest
observations. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will remain over the region into
Wednesday. The atmosphere will destabilize Wednesday afternoon
promoting scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
especially over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
Several type of precipitation are possible with these
showers...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel. Gusty
outflow winds will also be possible. Given that there is only a
slight chance of thunderstorms left mention out of all TAF sites.
Thermal temperature profiles suggest the Idaho Panhandle having
the best opportunity for isolated thunderstorms. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 51 29 52 31 54 / 10 50 20 20 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 31 51 28 50 30 54 / 10 60 30 30 30 20
Pullman 34 49 30 49 32 54 / 20 40 30 20 10 10
Lewiston 37 55 33 54 34 59 / 30 40 20 20 10 10
Colville 33 55 29 55 31 55 / 10 40 20 20 10 30
Sandpoint 31 51 27 50 28 52 / 20 60 20 40 30 40
Kellogg 31 45 29 45 31 50 / 20 60 50 50 30 20
Moses Lake 37 60 30 59 31 59 / 10 20 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 38 58 34 59 37 58 / 10 20 0 10 10 20
Omak 32 57 30 59 32 58 / 10 30 10 10 10 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
AFTER DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY WHICH HELPED BOOST AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM FOR THESE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING THE FOG MAY FREEZE TO SOME ROAD SURFACES CREATING
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING FOG...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH A DROP IN DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AS WE MIX OUT TO 4000 TO 5000 FT. WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THIS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. ALSO...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH HOUR
RANGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING DEW
POINT VALUES INTO THE MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WONT MAKE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASES HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREE AND
DROPPED DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S IF DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. CAPE REALLY WANES IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO STORM SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE STORMS THAT FIRE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO SEE IF
THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM
WIT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
SEEING THE MOST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING TAKING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR RETURNS
ON FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -4 TO -7 C. PLAN ON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HANG RIGHT IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY POSSIBLY GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WEAK SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY. THIS FOG HAS CREPT INTO KLSE AND WAS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS. THE FOG MAY ALSO GET INTO KRST FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 31.09Z RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THIS FOG TO LIFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
MORNING. ONCE THE FOG IS GONE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DECENT LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN THE MIXED LAYER. THE
31.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR BOTH AIRPORTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
945 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM HWY 50
NORTH TO NEAR SUSANVILLE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND WAS NOTED WELL BY EARLIER HRRR AND NAM RUNS. FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE LIMITED PRECIP AMOUNTS THUS FAR THOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO ~5000 FT. GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WANE OF THE SHOWER
COVERAGE PAST MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE CONTINUED SCATTERED-ISOLATED
COVERAGE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS TEMPS COOL, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT ON BRIDGES AND NON-PAVED
SURFACES. SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. CS
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WARMER DAYS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE INITIAL FEATURE
OF INTEREST A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG A PORTOLA TO LOVELOCK LINE FROM
8-MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. IT IS HERE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TONIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH AND A BIT BREEZY WITH SOME
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE OFF THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIDESPREAD 20S ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN
PARTS OF PERSHING COUNTY. THESE WILL BE THE COLDEST LOWS WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE EARLY MARCH.
SOME RIDGING FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. AT THIS
POINT, WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND A MODERATE SURFACE
GRADIENT, PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO BE 35-45 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND
WESTERN NV. ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND ITS EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A COLDER PATTERN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT
THE REGION, THE FIRST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE ARE LOOKING TO BE TYPICAL
SPRING SEASON CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS THAT WILL PROVIDE A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WHICH COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4,000-5,000 FEET.
AS SUCH, THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.
MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WERE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC ARE NOW
SHOWING SOLID AGREEMENT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO BIG MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT SOME
PRELIMINARY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER
BELOW 5,000 FEET WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY WHERE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED
SUNDAY AS ROAD TEMPERATURES AND APRIL SUN ANGLE MAY LIMIT ROADWAY
ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS WET AND SLICK ROADWAYS SEEM LIKELY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK BETWEEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BUT AGAIN NO BIG MOISTURE TAP IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS LOW. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RUN CONSISTENCY,
ENSEMBLE SPREADS, AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS ONLY NOW
SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT. AT THIS POINT THE TAKE AWAY WOULD BE THAT
THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER COLDER SYSTEM WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. 700 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE -7C TO -9C RANGE WHICH CLOUD KEEP SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET.
INCREASED WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER PERIODS OF WIND LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS EACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
FUENTES
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER ACROSS KRNO AND KCXP. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY ACT
TO REINFORCE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED. FUENTES
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12Z. THEY WILL
THEN LOWER THROUGH MORNING HOURS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. BETWEEN 18Z TO 20Z...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH AND CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WILL BE DURING ABOUT 21Z TO 03Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND
A MILE IN THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER
THE HEAVIER SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z AS
THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE BETTER 850MB MOISTURE ARRIVES BY 09Z ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI. ONCE THIS CONVECTIONS
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE MAY BE A LULL DURING THE LATE
MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION FIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HANDLED
PERIOD OF LOWER CIG/VISBY IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION WITH A 4
HOUR TEMPO GROUP. BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET NEARS 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE TIME
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT ISSUANCE TIME...IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS AROUND 2KFT AT 50KT...SUGGESTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDERDOING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SHEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WHEN GUSTS BEGIN.
EVEN WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ALL SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...LEE/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW WARMER AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ARRIVING.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW REACHES OF INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT
HINT AT IT BEING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER ISSUANCE TIME
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
ADVECTING MOISTER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH DEW POINTS STILL
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT ISSUANCE TIME...IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
TO REACH THE TERMINALS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES WINDS AROUND 2KFT AT 50KT...SUGGESTING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNDERDOING DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY SHEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WHEN GUSTS BEGIN.
EVEN WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER AT ALL SITES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...LEE/NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1210 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5-15 KTS. CLIMB WINDS ARE BRISK WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW IS PICKING UP A BIT SINCE SUNSET WITH DEEP SW FLOW
25-50KTS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX ATTM AND COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHWRS WITH
LEFT OVER OUTFLOWS. WE WILL AMEND FOR ANY SUCH WITH FURTHER
DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
LINGERING INTO MID MORNING. OUTLOOK IS FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF MID-EVENING...AS INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED SINCE THE SETTING
SUN. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO SE OK/ECNTRL TX...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA STAGE RIGHT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. WHILE THE 00Z NAM
HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING AREA OF -SHRA POORLY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS
NOT...AND MAINTAINS THESE -SHRA OVER DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E WITH THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS WORKED OVER FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP
CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED. A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RAPID
INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS LATE. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN RESULTING
IN GUSTY SRLY WINDS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO ANALYZE THE ENTIRE SUITE OF 00Z DATA
TONIGHT...WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADJUST POPS PER CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL
LA. DID LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE THURSDAY...AS THE
TROUGH/STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN E OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO MIN TEMPS...AS WINDS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 81 68 80 / 30 20 10 40
MLU 64 83 66 81 / 30 20 10 50
DEQ 63 78 64 74 / 20 20 30 40
TXK 65 80 66 77 / 30 20 20 40
ELD 64 82 66 79 / 30 20 10 40
TYR 66 82 68 78 / 30 20 10 40
GGG 67 82 68 79 / 30 20 10 40
LFK 67 84 69 80 / 40 20 10 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/15/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED
IN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BEGINNING
AROIUND DAYBREAK FOR KMKG. AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH MI DURING
THE DAY ON THU...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THE IFR WILL LAST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED
IN MINNESOTA WILL TRACK INTO MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BEGINNING
AROIUND DAYBREAK FOR KMKG. AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH MI DURING
THE DAY ON THU...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY
TO DEVELOP AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THE IFR WILL LAST...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MANN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |116 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIGH CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WNW WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS BY LATE MORNING. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
KMSP...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES FROM GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-
092.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Tonight - Thursday:
In the very near term an area of convection tied to a pesky MCV over
southwestern MO is expected to track northeast and graze the far
southeast CWA through early evening. Have increased PoPs over this
region to account for this.
Attention then turns back to the west and northwest and focuses on
two areas...the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western
KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible
satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts
baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture taking its time to arrive.
Latest NAM/RAP suggest CIN may not be eroded till closer to 00Z.
Still expect a line of convection to form this evening with the
front sliding east-southeast overnight. This activity expected to
reach far northwest MO towards midnight and then continue across
northern MO. Second area being watched is the KS accas and 12z NAM
defined a h7 shortwave/vorticity max that will move out of CO this
evening. Last several runs of the convective allowing HRRR generates
an expanding area of elevated convection which tracks east
overnight, crossing the KS/MO border after midnight. 18z NAM qpf
hints at this convection but delays the arrival till after 09z. Will
side towards the HRRR for now.
While the severe threat will be greatly muted due to its arrival
time and minimal instability some generous qpf is possible over our
northern and western counties. The latter due to the southerly low
level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which
could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
Convection likely to exit the CWA quickly from west to east
Thursday morning. However, model consensus indicates the front will
stall just south of the CWA, close enough that low chance afternoon
PoPs necessary across the far southern counties to account for
potential late afternoon redevelopment.
Thursday night - Friday night:
The aforementioned stalled front will likely remain just south of
the CWA during this period. However, post frontal stratiform or weak
elevated convective rains are likely north of the boundary Thursday
night into Friday morning. An upper level trough is progged to shift
eastward within a pseudo westerly flow with pieces of energy
ejecting ahead of it through the Central Plains. This should allow
for some isentropically induced rain to form and affect most of the
CWA. The rain chances will end by Friday afternoon with the passage
of the trough axis. Temperatures will be on the cool side and hover
in the 50s all day.
Clearing skies, light winds and cool high pressure will probably
send Sat morning lows to freezing or below.....with a good chance
for a frost.
Saturday - Sunday:
Should be a rather benign weekend with weak ridging aloft
translating eastward and surface pressure falls across the plains
generating a southerly breeze. Should be a very pleasant weekend
with above average temperatures.
Sunday night - Wednesday:
Looks like an unsettled pattern. Southwesterly flow sets up with the
passage of the upper ridge allowing for increasing moist warm air
advection. Considerable model uncertainty on PoPs and timing of the
next cold front. GFS is much faster and brings a cold front through
Monday night in response to a fast moving shortwave coming out of
the desert southwest on Monday whereas the 12z ECMWF shows no sign
of this wave...maybe A poor reflection by 12z Tuesday. In any event,
there is the potential for a couple pieces of weak energy to be
embedded within the southwesterly flow and give us a chance for some
convection. Temperatures are likely to remain above average for the
first part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Line of storms approaching far northwest Missouri will weaken a bit
once it reaches the KC area by 09Z, and it`s unlikely any terminal
would experience damaging hail or winds greater than 40 kts once
storms arrive. Improving conditions expected after sunrise with
perhaps some lingering MVFR clouds, otherwise quiet flying conditions
for Thursday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SEVERE WATCH 15 WAS ISSUED EARLIER VALID UNTIL 06Z. STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. BELIEVE THIS MAY TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.
FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.
DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED KOFK WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THERE FOR AN HOUR OUR TWO. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCASIONALLY OCCUR AT KLNK/KOMA THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. SEVERE THREAT IS OVER FOR THE TAF SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST AND OFF THE COAST. BESIDES DIURNAL EFFECTS
WHICH TYPICALLY LEAD TO SUBSIDING SURFACE WINDS...THERE ARE NO
SYNOPTIC EFFECTS THAT WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE WINDS WOULD DECREASE.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS A FEW HOURS (09Z-11Z) OF WEAK WIND SPEEDS
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND I`LL TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THIS REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. DISCUSSION
FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD STRONGLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH P/W VALUES AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH...SO EXPECT A CLEAR AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHER
CLOUDS TO OUR W AND NW ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY ERODE AS THEY MOVE
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST AREAS. LOWS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR PERTURBATIONS. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
HEELS OF A WEAK RIDGE. ANY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE ENTERING OUR CWA. BEYOND THIS...A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER.
THIS LEADS TO WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES TACKED ON
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BALMY WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EXPECTED. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE I HAVE DELAYED POPS FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE
APPALACHIANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT REPRESENT THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM. ANY WET WEATHER SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED OFF THE COAST THEREAFTER. CLOUD COVER WILL SIMILARLY MAKE
A QUICK EXIT THANKS TO LOW AMPLITUDE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
DEEP LAYER DRYING. FOLLOWING THE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO BUT RETURN FLOW KICKING IN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING BACK SEASONABLE TEMPS, ANY WARM ADVECTION AIDED AT
NIGHT BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS USUAL STARTS TO
DEPICT STRAY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVELS REMAINING
DRY THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AND POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT 20
PERCENT. EVEN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MAY NOT RAMP
UP RAIN CHANCES APPRECIABLY AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNING THE GULF AND BAHAMAS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME AOB 5
KTS. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG. AFTER
DAYBREAK...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS...INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND WILL SEE HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM...BECOMING SCT/BKN INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
NEARSHORE SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF FEET GIVEN THE SOLIDLY ONSHORE
FLOW ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE
GUSTING TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS OVER 6 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM
FOLLOWS...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. NE
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE ENE. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT THIS EVE WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER FRINGES WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT TOWARD MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A RETURN FLOW AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LINGERING EASTERLY WINDS EARLY
THURSDAY. BY MIDDAY...A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY VEER TO SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS
WELL INCREASING FROM AROUND TEN KNOTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND TWO FEET THURSDAY TO 4-6 FEET LATE FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH AGITATED
WINDS AND SEAS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SATURDAY MORNING COLD
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE AN ABATING TREND IN BOTH. THINGS
REALLY COLLAPSE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVERHEAD. THEN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SLATED FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE. THE MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT MAY ADD A FOOT IN
PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT ALONG THE OUTER REACHES OF THE 20NM
FORECAST ZONES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. WITH A VERY DRY
GROUND AND ATMOSPHERE...RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE AND
TEMPERATURES DROP FAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
HAVE CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. THERE ARE A FEW MID CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE
OR TWO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ADD A
MENTION OF SHOWERS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DIMINISHING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WIND HIGHLIGHTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
QUICK UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST HOUR. ADVISORY WINDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL STILL BE BREEZY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS PICKING UP
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER WINDY DAY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.
ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST USED A COMBINATION
OF CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS IS
STILL GIVING SUB 20 PERCENT RH VALUES OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION...WITH SURFACE WINDS STILL STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW...WHICH EXPIRES AT 10
PM CENTRAL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR TO SEE IF
WE CAN LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ROTATING NEAR
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARDS MORNING
WHEN SHORT WAVE SWINGING AROUND EASTERLY MOVING UPPER LOW NUDGES
INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON THURSDAY...WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO
RE-EVALUATE ON LATER SHIFTS TO SEE IF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE LOW SIDE OVER THE SOUTH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE CONCERNS (PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO VACATE THE REGION...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A SLIGHT WARM
UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED RANGE FEATURES NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE...TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KISN/KMOT LATER
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE LOW VFR CIGS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT TO POSSIBLY BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED OVER THIS AREA FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NDZ040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
335 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
DURING THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FIRST FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SW INTO
THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING THE CIRRUS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED BUT
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT THE CIRRUS DROPPING IN FROM THE
WNW AND THE CIRRUS TO THE SW ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER THE AREA.
DUE TO COLLABORATION WILL ONLY ALLOW SKY COVER TO RAMP UP TO 30 TO
40% IN THE SE AND EAST.
HRRR AND RUC STILL HOLDING OFF PRECIP NEARING THE WEST UNTIL AFTER
12Z SO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BY 06Z THEN TEMPS MAY START TO DRIFT UP A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH 12Z AS MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH START TO INCREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A WARM AND PROBABLY BUSY DAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AREAS EAST OF I-71 SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH 18Z. MU CAPES GET TO
AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30
KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
INTO NW OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL HEAR THUNDER FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS SPRING. WILL NEED HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ALL AREAS BY
LATE IN THE DAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE ARE LIKELY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NEVER GET
OUT OF THE PRECIP FRIDAY BUT A DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY NEAR LAKE
ERIE. MORE RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS QUICKLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES FOR TOMORROW. THINK
THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS PART OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL
PUT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY COULD WIND UP BEING A MIXED WEATHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS. CURRENTLY...THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. AS COLD FRONT SLIPS EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...STILL WAITING FOR LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW TO MOISTEN
AND DEVELOP CLOUDINESS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. MIGHT HAVE TO START
PUTTING OFF THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN FCST OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...SO
AN ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE INCOMING
00Z NAM AND THE MOST RECENT RAP RUNS DEPICTING IMPROVING MOIST
UPGLIDE IN THE 3000 TO 6000 FT AGL LAYER FROM THE SW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. AS THE WEAK
UPGLIDE AND SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES TOWARD DAYBREAK...ISOLD TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SRN MTNS AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN IN PROFILES THROUGH THU...GRADUALLY
EXPANDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SRLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SRN MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING EASTWARD TO INTERSTATE 77. THE SOLIDIFYING CLOUD DECK
SHOULD KEEP MAXES BELOW GUIDANCE THU AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF IN SITU
SHALLOW COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOIST UPGLIDE...A PHASING SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE PLAINS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY IN SRN SECTIONS MAY PERMIT ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS TO CROSS THE SRN TIER DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DAMPING INTO THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE PATTERN. FINGER OF STABILITY ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
BEST THUNDER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY EVENING. NOT ENOUGH DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SOAR BACK WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS AND BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MORE FRIDAY LATE EVENING AND NIGHT WHEN
OF COURSE DIURNAL TRENDS WOULD MINIMIZE CAPE POTENTIAL...BUT EVEN
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS DOES BRING A BAND OF SBCAPE BETWEEN 100-
300 J/KG INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS. THE CONCERN IS THAT THIS
INSTABILITY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS COLLOCATED WITH 60+KT 0-6KM SHEAR...
AND 30-40KT 0-1KM SHEAR. SHERB VALUES OVERALL REMAIN BELOW 1 BUT
SREF SHERB PLUME FORECASTS FOR THE AREA DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME SREF
MEMBERS CREEPING ABOVE 1. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK OVERNIGHT DID INTRODUCE
MARGINAL RISK INTO THE MOUNTAINS SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION.
ONLY OTHER MINOR ISSUE IS THAT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH THIS AND EVEN IF IT
WERE TO OCCUR NO ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ALL POPS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
18Z SATURDAY LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE PRETTY NICE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE EXTENDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS BEHIND SATURDAY/S FRONT...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
LEADING TO A NICE EASTER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND DEEP SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT BY THIS POINT HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT QPF VALUES AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...WITH GFS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST ON MONDAY THAN
THE ECMWF...AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES PUSHES INTO
THE PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BUT AGAIN SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY WHERE
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MIGHT SET UP. GFS WANTS TO KEEP A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS
THE MOIST FETCH A BIT FARTHER NORTH MORE IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES
AND RESULTING FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS WITH A BIT OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THUNDER POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOIST SE
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TOWARD DAWN. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER MECHANICAL LIFT NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT...THIS MAY INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF A CLOUD
DECK AROUND 050 THAT FORMS A CEILING BY MID/LATE MORNING. THE BETTER
PLUME OF LOW MOISTURE MOVES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY ALLOW AN
MVFR CEILING TO FORM IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WAS PUSHED BACK
TO 20Z ON THE NEW TAF. WIND SHOULD STAY SE THIS MORNING AND THEN S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW UNTIL MORE GUIDANCE FROM THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS IS SEEN. AFTER SUNSET...THE LAMP GUIDANCE GROWS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH AN IFR CEILING SPREADING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
HAVE KEPT THAT OUT FOR NOW FOR BREVITY AND WILL EVALUATE IT FOR THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. IT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO
FORM THE IFR CEILING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP FROM S TO N ACROSS
THE MTN AND FOOTHILL TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CIGS
WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THU MORNING AT KAVL AND
THE SC SITES AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS. AT THAT POINT...SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE LAMP...DEVELOPS AN IFR CEILING IN
THE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND THEN FANS IT OUT
ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NC FOOTHILLS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN
IFR CEILING IN THE NEW TAFS DURING PEAK HEATING WITHOUT A FAVORABLE
LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND WITHOUT A
HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY. FEEL THAT MVFR IS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN
THE WARM APRIL SUN...BUT WILL CONSIDER KEEPING A TEMPO FOR IFR IN
LATER AMENDMENTS. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS WE LOSE HEATING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. STILL A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT KAND AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU AND A PROB30
WAS KEPT THERE.
OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO SCATTER AND LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 74%
KGSP HIGH 99% HIGH 91% MED 77% MED 78%
KAVL HIGH 97% MED 79% MED 66% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 88% HIGH 88%
KGMU HIGH 94% HIGH 90% MED 77% HIGH 81%
KAND HIGH 95% HIGH 81% MED 72% HIGH 80%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SIOUX CITY FOR THE UPCOMING 1 TO 2 HOURS
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOWL FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. INCREASING MID-
UPR LVL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.
THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AWAITING SHOWERS OVER NE IOWA IN REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING. LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST EVENING ERODED AS THEY MOVED AWAY FROM
THIS BETTER FORCING AND WERE OUTRUN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH AND AS 60-70KT
LOW-LEVEL JET HEELS OVER TO THE EAST.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT
COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z UNTIL 850
MB TROUGH CLEARS TO THE EAST. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUN TO BRING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK SECONDARY WAVE. CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS
INT EH MID TO UPPER 30S.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CLIP THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUS IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAY EVEN SEE A
MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE LAKE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...BUT WILL WARM BACK TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH A MAINLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THUS
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE FRONT SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WOULD
EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT WINDS OFF THE
LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONTINUED THE DOWN THE
MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
LOOKS COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO TAF LOCATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500
J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 18Z...AND EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z. LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY WITH EXPECTED
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RAINFALLS MOISTENING FUELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT...THOUGH LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIME TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EASE WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. LOWERING WINDS AND VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AFTER
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA
BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z TAF UPDATE/
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH KIND AT THE MOMENT...BUT RADAR
SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER AT KIND...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
STARTING AT 15Z. STILL WATCHING ON DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER
AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS LATER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS/
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL MERIT LITTLE MORE
THAN A VICINITY MENTION...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER EXPLICITLY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 30KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO GUSTINESS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45 TO 50KT WINDS
JUST 2KFT OFF THE SURFACE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
629 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
AS EXPECTED SEEING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG INITIAL THETA E SURGE. ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM AS WELL. WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PCPN TODAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED TRENDS IN TAFS. FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN SOUTH OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING BUT COULD LINGER AT KFWA DEPENDING ON HOW FAST DRIER
AIR WORKS IN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...BENTLEY/LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND...REDUCING POPS TO SLIGHTS IN OUR
FAR EASTERN CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEFORE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
BUREAU COUNTY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN LAST NIGHT...AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REPORTED LESS THAN 1/4 INCH WITH
SOME SPOTS NOT A DROP OF RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
730 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL DIMINISH UNDER 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
542 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.
THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH INCREASING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE EXAMINING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAKE
DETERMINATION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WPC
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE
MOST. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ALOFT OVER THE REGION...A WET AND
STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE. AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WAS ON THE WAY IN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE NEAR 60
FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECTED
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING CONVECTION IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY MOVES EAST TODAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL
INITIALLY BATTLE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR OVER OUR
AREA...AND ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN USED TODAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE...AND
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THERE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL BE LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A
HIGHER POP. HOWEVER...THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...AND THEN GET
A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
JUST TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SINCE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD
MEAN HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A GREATER THREAT
OF FLOODING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING THIS EVENT...AND SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA E...AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AS ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RAIN...AND
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF KENTUCKY. COOLER...DRIER
AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S AND MID 60S
RESPECTIVELY.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS TURN MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. IN
FACT... CAPE AND LI/S LOOK JUST AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DOES IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. SO HAVE WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIKELY BRINGING LOCALIZED
MVFR OR WORSE IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOMERSET TO MOREHEAD. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND BRING LOCALIZED
SUB-VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION PRECLUDES USING
ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN MOST TAFS. A LULL IN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH ADDITION
PRECIP MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE S AND SW DURING THE MORNING...WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
932 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING WERE MAINLY TO ADJUST POPS EARLY ON
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACHES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS LINE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE BASED ON THE SURFACE OBS AND
SOUNDING...SO NOT EXPECTED MUCH RAINFALL INITIALLY.
ALSO...ADJUSTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50`S.
PREVIOUS...THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WARM
ADVECTION AND WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT...AND CONTINUED
INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY FROM W-E. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...BUT DID MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY W OF PIT.
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.
WITH A QUICK ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 USING THE LATEST SREF
AND LAMP NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP S ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
STALLING OUT FROM SW OH INTO SOUTHERN PA. CONTINUED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SHOWERS...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS SHOWALTER INDICIES DROP BELOW ZERO WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET.
A SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF PIT AGAIN IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY PRECIP...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENDS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...MAINLY DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL
SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE QPF NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF.
AFTER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE LATER SATURDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS SATURDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE ADDED VCTS
TO ZZV AND WILL FURTHER AMEND AS NEEDED IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO TIMING WAS MAINTAINED
OFF OF GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PORTS WHERE A THUNDERSTORM PASSES AND GENERAL VFR IS
MAINTAINED UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR UNTIL BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND WILL BE REINTRODUCED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND
PROBABLY EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ENCROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
THUNDER MAY BE DWINDLING. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE TOUCHED
OFF A FEW TSTMS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT LATEST TSTM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF A FEW RUMBLES SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
THROUGH 21Z WHERE NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE H8-H5 THETA-E
LAPSE RATES EXIST. DESPITE THE LIMITED THUNDER THREAT... OVERALL
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AFTER
18Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH ONLY SMALL
AND MOMENTARY RESPONSES NOTED FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SLOWER RESPONSES DUE TO
SNOW MELT WITH LAST NIGHTS SNOWFALL.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN SET UP THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MUCH OF THIS COMES IN TWO WAVES...ONE THURSDAY THEN THE
SECOND VERY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. GENERAL
AMOUNTS ON TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE AROUND ONE
INCH OR SO. THIS IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES
WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR RESPONSE TIMES. NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER RAIN THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD BE WATCHED
IN THE EVENT THAT ANY ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1022 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE. EXPECT THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
THE AREA CAN DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NMM/ARW HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THIS MORNING CONVECTION VERY WELL AND ARE NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...WHILE THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP MORE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AND
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE UPDATES ARE ALREADY
OUT./15/
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE OVER SE TX MOVING NE TOWARD THE AREA
WITH A RATHER EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THIS WAVE IS MOST CONCENTRATED ABOVE 305K THETA
AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER SW
SECTIONS. MAJORITY OF THIS HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND WITH
WARM/DRY INVERSION LAYER BELOW.
AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST...EXPECT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING SERVING TO TEMPORARILY WASH AWAY THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...TAPERING OFF FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AS THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
QUICKLY REESTABLISH ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WITH 120 KNOT H3 JET WILL
QUICKLY PUSH A RATHER POTENT WAVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY DAYS END. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER
OK OVERNIGHT AND RACE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING DRAGGING
A FRONT BEHIND.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT IT TO BREAK DOWN
IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE THE
WARM LAYER AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS BEST OVER N MS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXCEED 50 KNOTS...7-7.5 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES/25-30 VERTICAL
TOTALS...AND DIURNALLY OPTIMIZED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL
EXIST. SEVERE MODE STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AS LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE SO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE FAR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST IT GETS WITH TIME
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING./26/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BUT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY BUT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. A 1030MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
OZARKS WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING
HELPING TO BRING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO OUR CWA. PWS
WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN FROM GREATER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY NOON
SATURDAY. THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN WEAK RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING TO MOISTEN OUR AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR RAIN TO FALL OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES BY NOON AND THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY MORNING LOWER 60
DEGREE DEW POINTS AND INCH AND A HALF PWS WILL BE BACK OVER OUR CWA.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
AS BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THE
RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL RUN
ACCUMULATIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BACK INTO MVRF/IFR RANGE
AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING AGAIN BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 65 83 48 / 24 10 35 72
MERIDIAN 81 61 82 46 / 20 14 23 64
VICKSBURG 83 66 81 47 / 23 11 43 71
HATTIESBURG 83 63 83 56 / 18 8 20 44
NATCHEZ 84 67 83 48 / 19 10 33 62
GREENVILLE 80 65 77 44 / 27 18 64 48
GREENWOOD 81 66 79 44 / 33 20 58 60
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1038 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...BETWEEN
WINNIPEG AND THE INTL BORDER. WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AND INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CNTRL ND. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN ZONES BY NOONTIME...AND ONLY IMPACT
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST MIXING AND STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MID AFTN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
NOONTIME TO 7 PM CDT.
ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS AS CURRENT ECHOES WEST OF
THE CWA AND MOST OF CWA IS CLEAR...WITH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING OVER
NORTHEAST ND. USED RUC AS GUIDANCE AND DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WINDS AND TEMPS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH INVERSION BREAK AROUND 15Z AND ARE REFLECTED IN THE
FCST. ALSO EXPECTING WINDS TO HOVER NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
SW ZONES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPS SO
FAR LOOKING OKAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWN THRU AROUND 850MB TO
ALLOW MIXING OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE FAR SRN ZONES...BUT MARGINALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS SO WILL HOLD ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE
OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER WAVE FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THEN
COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BRING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIP WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE. THINK THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GEM TRACKS A STRONG SFC
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND DUMPS OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALL THE WAY
NORTH OF FARGO...BUT THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THEIR MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS HIGH WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THINK
WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY THAT POINT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW CORNER OF ND
SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS...AND EXPECT THEM TO CROSS THE NRN PART OF
THE FA. OTHERWISE...WINDS IN GRADIENT LEVEL MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 20
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST AND DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND WITH VERY DRY FUELS...FIRES
COULD SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE BORDERLINE
CATEGORY. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE COLD FRONT COMES IN A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE SOME RH RECOVERY...BUT FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY DRY AND WINDY SO WILL GO WITH THE RED
FLAG AND LATER SHIFTS CAN CANCEL EARLY IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS
FIRE WEATHER...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1010 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING REPORTED AS WELL. BEHIND
THIS LINE THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AS WELL. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
ALOFT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
IT WILL GET BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS SOME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO. LOCAL SCHEMES SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH 40 MPH
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT
NOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING. BUT
UNTIL WINDS MIX DOWN COULD SEE SOME LLWS AS 2K FT WINDS ARE FROM
THE SSW AT 40-45 KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS WHICH WERE TOO LOW. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN INDIANA
SO LEFT IN THE MORNING POPS WEST.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT ALONG IL/IN BORDER WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT
NOW INTO CENTRAL IOWA...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING. BUT
UNTIL WINDS MIX DOWN COULD SEE SOME LLWS AS 2K FT WINDS ARE FROM
THE SSW AT 40-45 KT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
621 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS WHICH WERE TOO LOW. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES. SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN INDIANA
SO LEFT IN THE MORNING POPS WEST.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT JUST SW OF STL WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
BUT HAVE DOUBTS AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. COLD FRONT NOW
ACROSS WISCONSIN...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MAINLY
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDINESS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANTICIPATED BUT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW FORECAST
TRENDS AS A RESULT...SO HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BUT
AFTERNOON TREND WITH POPS AND CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST. RAP CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG SBCAPE INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH WEAK SHEAR PREVIOUS THINKING FOR EVENING CONVECTION
REMAINS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO FORCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL
EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE
OF THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE WILDCARD IN THE
FCST IS THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD INTERSECT AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACRS N/NE GEORGIA AND HELP TO TRIGGER SOME DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH
THE MODELS CARRY EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND THE SRN PIEDMONT OF
NC INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE FCST TO THE LOWER END
OF THE CHC RANGE OUT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
FOR TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE S OR SW...AND WILL ALSO PUSH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AWAY TO THE NE. THAT SHOULD SLOWLY ELIMINATE OUR
PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A LULL BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF LEAVING QUASI ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT...ONE NORTHERN STREAM...AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE
FCST TO PHASE AS THEY ENTER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY...AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED PHASING HAPPENS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL ADVECT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHERE LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPWARDS OF
1200-1500J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH A 40-50KT LLJ PROVIDING AMPLE
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS...DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A POCKET
OF RELATIVELY DRIER GULF AIR ADVECTS IN EARLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT. THAT SAID...AS THE LLJ ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROF...MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST NEARLY 30KTS
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WITH SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THE
SAME LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NC HIGH
COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST GA. ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN EXPECTING AN
EVEN MORE STABLE...LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BE IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FROPA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BAND OF
LLV MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...FALLING THICKNESSES COULD YIELD A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL NOT YIELD ANY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF NORTHWEST WINDS
AID DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY
LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...THUS WILL MENTION FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WHILE ALSO ADDING WORDING FOR FROST
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWS FALL TO NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST PATCHY/WIDESPREAD FROST AND OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MODELS FAVOR
SAID HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRY...YET
COOL EASTER HOLIDAY IN STORE. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP
OFFSHORE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK YIELDING INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL BROAD WAA REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HIGHLIGHTED BY POTENTIAL DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INDUCED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST REGARDING DIURNAL CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE BROAD
UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF BY MIDWEEK EFFECTIVELY HELPING
TO TAMP DOWN CONVECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
FAVOR POSSIBLE CAD EXTENSION FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX...ALL
WARRANTING CONTINUED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF ANY POSSIBLE UPGLIDE
REGIME ESTABLISHMENT ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AMONGST WAA REGIME LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...LOW VFR CONTINUES FOR THE TIME BEING
BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED...WITH VCSH OR PERHAPS -DZ DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 18Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...VFR...FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS DEPICTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS FAIRLY WELL
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE STRENGTHENING MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW. MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER MECHANICAL
LIFT NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THRU MID MORNING. OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT...THE CLOUD BASE IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO 050-060. THE
BETTER PLUME OF LOW MOISTURE MOVES EAST LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY
ALLOW AN MVFR CEILING TO FORM BY THE MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EAST OVER THE PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW UNTIL MORE
GUIDANCE FROM THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS IS SEEN. AFTER
SUNSET...THE LAMP GUIDANCE GROWS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH AN IFR
CEILING SPREADING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE KEPT THAT OUT FOR
NOW...AS IT MAY DEPEND ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SHOULD IMPACT KAVL AND THE UPSTATE SC TAFS AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE
DEEPENS THRU MID MORNING. AT THAT POINT...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...
PARTICULARLY THE LAMP...DEVELOPS AN IFR CEILING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW
AREAS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND THEN FANS IT OUT ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NC
FOOTHILLS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN IFR CEILING IN THE NEW
TAFS DURING PEAK HEATING WITHOUT A FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND WITHOUT A HIGH PRECIP
PROBABILITY. FEEL THAT MVFR IS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE WARM
APRIL SUN...BUT WILL CONSIDER KEEPING A TEMPO FOR IFR IN LATER
AMENDMENTS. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS WE LOSE HEATING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS. STILL A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT KAND AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU AND A PROB30
WAS KEPT THERE...BUT PUSHED BACK TO THE EARLY EVENING PER THE SPC
4KM WRF. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
HAVE HELD OFF WITH THE IFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MOVE OFF FRIDAY MORNING
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO SCATTER AND LIFT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND RESTRICTIONS. VFR
WILL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 82% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 86% MED 69% MED 65% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% MED 73% HIGH 87% MED 75%
KHKY HIGH 87% MED 76% MED 68% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 91% MED 65% LOW 56% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 82% MED 79% MED 78% HIGH 81%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/RWH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...PM/TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1051 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE WEST TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY. COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK STALLS OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE VA COAST WILL MOVE
FURTHER EAST OUT TO SEA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A CHAOTIC BARRAGE OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF WSW UPPER FLOW EMANATING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION IN PHASES THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL AS.
THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES...NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL KY...WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING.
PER THE MORNING RNK UPPER AIR SOUNDING...OUR REGION IS STILL
CONFINED WITHIN DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. ANY MOISTENING WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE
FROM TOP DOWN. THUS...FEEL ALL OF THE MODELS...AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...ARE WAY OVERDONE ON MEASURABLE QPF TODAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WHERE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR UP THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
CURRENT ACTIVITY AND PLACEMENT FOR THIS EVENING WHICH SUGGESTS THE
ACTIVITY IN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE...WILL STILL
MANAGE TO CROSS INTO WVA AND POTENTIALLY REACH THE BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG AREAS BY SUNDOWN. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND RAISE
POPS AFTER I TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FOLLOWING QUICK ON THE HEELS OF
THE FIRST AND IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WVA TONIGHT. AGAIN...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EACH SHORT WAVE WILL ACT TO NUDGE THE FRONT A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE INITIAL UPPER SUPPORT IS BETTER TO
THE NORTH...THE FRONT WILL SHOW MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT NORTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE THAN IN OUR REGION THROUGH FRI...THUS
ALLOWING THE FRONT WITH TIME TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WEST-EAST
CONFIGURATION AS OPPOSED TO A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. FINALLY
BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL GIVE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A GOOD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THAT
TIME...HAVE DOWNPLAYED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL/MOS POPS THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...AND ACTUALLY DO NOT HAVE ANY HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY IN THE EXTREME WEST-
NORTHWEST...UNTIL ALMOST THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z FRI.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SSW THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL
REDUCE INSOLATION AND OFFSET THE LOW-LEVEL WAA. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. REDUCED DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM MODEL BLEND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY AIR
MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
AN ACTIVE ONE. BY FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE ENTERING QUEBEC WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP. DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THIS
LOCATION...OR PERHAPS EVEN LIFT A LITTLE NORTH...AS ITS PARENT LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT OUT OF EAST TEXAS START TO PUT A BUCKLE IN THE FRONT
AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL IN
TUNE WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS CURVING FROM THE WESTERN PART OF OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTORS. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO
EXPERIENCE A GENEROUS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY ONLY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AT
BEST...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL OF THESE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 00Z/8PM GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE ARE STILL OFFERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST SURFACE
BASED CAPE REACHING 800-1000 J/KG AND SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES
IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. HAVE CONTINUED IN LINE WITH OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WITH THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAREST THE SURFACE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST 850 MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO REACH 40 TO 50 KTS. WHILE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
GUSTS OF WIND ADVISORY LEVEL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THANKS TO THE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE RIDGES ORIENTATION AND ROUGHLY 5000 FT MSL
MIXING HEIGHT...THE INVERTED-V NATURE OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST. ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO ADVANCE INTO PENNSYLVANIA...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPPING TO AROUND -4 C ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STORMS...WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
COVERAGE MAY INITIALLY BE LESS JUST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT THEN REORGANIZE TO BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE
TROUGH. ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THOSE PREFERRED
UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND OR ABOVE 4000
FT MSL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. NORTHWEST FLOW 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT EVEN MORE SO BY 12Z/8AM
SATURDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. AT THIS TIME...OUR SURFACE WIND SPEED/GUSTS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION WILL BE FORECAST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THERE MAY BE A THREE TO FIVE HOUR WINDOW CENTERED AROUND
8AM THAT ELEVATIONS OVER 4000 FT MSL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE ADJOINING GRAYSON HIGHLANDS OF WV VA MAY
SEE SOME GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS 850 MB WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO SLOW TO 20KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST WILL END BY
MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST...AND HEAD OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. ANTICIPATE LOWS
AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL TREND
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BECOMES POSITIONED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADING THROUGH THE CENTER PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE AREA SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE 00Z/8PM GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS POTENTIAL QUITE YET IN THE FORECAST.
LOW WILL BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN US
BECOMES WARMER AND MORE MOIST THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR BOUTS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AS WE GO OUT IN TIME MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIFFER ON
TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT IT APPEARS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE VA COAST
AT THIS HOUR. UPSTREAM ARE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE UPPER FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORT WAVES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE WAY TO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...IN GENERATING MEASURABLE QPF WITH
THIS FIRST FEATURE. FEEL LARGELY THAT THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL
SIMPLY SERVE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH 00Z REMAINS
REMAINS AOA100 DROPPING INTO THE 045-080 RANGE AFT 06Z.
THUS...FOR NOW...HAVE IGNORED THE WIDESPREAD 0.10-0.20 INCH 6-HR
QPF GENERATED BY THE GFS AND THE MODEL GENERATED TAFS OF CIGS AOB
025 BY 00Z. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY SUB-VFR CIGS AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THAT THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK FRI
IN THE WEST...AND FRI LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR -RA/SPRINKLES BLF- LWB DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER
MORE QUICKLY AND ANY UPSTREAM -SHRA FROM THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MAY
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA AS SPRINKLES BEFORE DISSIPATING.
A BETTER CHANCE OF -RA REACHING EASTERN WV SHOULD OCCUR AFT 08Z
WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS...LIGHT SE MOST
LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET...VEERING TO SSW THROUGH THE DAY AND
INCREASING TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS POSSIBLE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
A SLOW MOVING...INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FRI...MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE FINALLY KICKS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA...MOVING INTO EASTERN WV DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION FRI
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
WESTERN AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND UPSLOPE -SHRA...POSSIBLY -SHSN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON-SUN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 445 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ANTECEDENT VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE VA COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...BUT TAKE UNTIL FRI NIGHT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT REACH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
UNTIL FRIDAY...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY FROM THE WEST...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL ONLY SEE MODEST RECOVERY AND WITH MIXING COULD
EASILY SEE MIN RH VALUES DROP TO 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA...BUT THE FUELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY AND WIDESPREAD
10-HR FUEL MOISTURES OF 6-7 PERCENT NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
FURTHERMORE...SPC PLANS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THUS...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE
DANGER ALONG TO EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH LINES UP WITH
LWX/AKQ/RAH PLANS AS WELL.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS
CONCERN...AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL FRI-SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY WET AND UNSETTLED...SO THIS COULD
BE THE END OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOMETIME TO COME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...PM/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...RAB/RCS
FIRE WEATHER...RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
WELL... THE CHANCE FOR RAIN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED THIS
MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS NOW GONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
WI BY 1 PM TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE PRECIP ALONG THIS TROUGH.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CLEARING BEHIND THIS TROUGH IN
MINNESOTA. THIS CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
MID 60S TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 18Z.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY SINCE
MOST AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT. HOWEVER... LOW DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT NORTHWEST
OF MADISON TO FOND DU LAC THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
AWAITING SHOWERS OVER NE IOWA IN REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY LEAD VORT MAX ACROSS REGION THIS
MORNING. LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST EVENING ERODED AS THEY MOVED AWAY FROM
THIS BETTER FORCING AND WERE OUTRUN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH AND AS 60-70KT
LOW-LEVEL JET HEELS OVER TO THE EAST.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT
COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER.
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z UNTIL 850
MB TROUGH CLEARS TO THE EAST. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z AND ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUN TO BRING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF WEAK SECONDARY WAVE. CLOUDS AND
MIXING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS
INT EH MID TO UPPER 30S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN CLIP THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING...AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES THEN FOCUS IN THE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAY EVEN SEE A
MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE LAKE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SITTING BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A PASSING LOW TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY...BUT WILL WARM BACK TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH A MAINLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THUS
TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE FRONT SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WOULD
EXPECT MUCH MILDER TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER. THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT WINDS OFF THE
LAKE...COOLER TEMPS...AND LESS INSTABILITY. CONTINUED THE DOWN THE
MIDDLE APPROACH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
LOOKS COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE ON TIMING OF SHOWERS
INTO TAF LOCATIONS AND THEIR IMPACT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS UNDER THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ON LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF 500
J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE THAT COULD BRUSH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO CAN/T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
PCPN SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 18Z...AND EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z. LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT AS CRITICAL AS YESTERDAY WITH EXPECTED
0.2 TO 0.3 INCH RAINFALLS MOISTENING FUELS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER WINDS ALSO LOWERING THE THREAT...THOUGH LOWER DEW POINTS WILL
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIME TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EASE WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH. LOWERING WINDS AND VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AFTER
PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA
BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
118 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES COOLING. AS THE JET IS OVERHEAD
AND UPLIFT FROM THE FRONT OCCURS....SOME SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN
INTENSITY. A CELL JUST EAST OF DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
SEVERAL IN CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FLASHES CURRENTLY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THIS CELL PUSHING EAST INTO WASHINGTON
COUNTY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
ACROSS THE CORRIDOR AND PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SURFACE LOW IS WRAPPING UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF KDEN WITH INCREASING
WINDSPEEDS INTO IT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TURNING ALL AIRPORTS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDEN AND KAPA WITH SNOW ALREADY FOR KBJC. COLD
AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE
AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO
SNOW NEAR KAPA AND KDEN BY 21Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE
DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN
THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1222 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SURFACE LOW IS WRAPPING UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF KDEN WITH INCREASING
WINDSPEEDS INTO IT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TURNING ALL AIRPORTS TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS FOR KDEN AND KAPA WITH SNOW ALREADY FOR KBJC. COLD
AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE
AIRMASS ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO
SNOW NEAR KAPA AND KDEN BY 21Z. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE
DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN
THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER
SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SYSTEM IS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE HRRR AND RUC WERE
DENOTING. MOST SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS ARE NOW NORTH OF DENVER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN. HAVE UPDATED
FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NORTH FOR NOW. FORECASTING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. A
POINT OF CONCERN IS A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO RIGHT NOW. THIS
COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKING AT QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TRENDS...LIFT
SEEMS TO DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z. HRRR AND RUC
PRECIPITATION TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS AFTER
06Z...WILL CONTINUE FOLLOWING THEIR GUIDANCE HOWEVER QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES RUN TO RUN. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAY MOVES ON
WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER THE RAIN AND MAY FURTHER HEAT THE GROUND
AND THEREFORE LIMIT WHAT SNOW WILL STICK TO THE GROUND LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS NEVADA AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE TROUGH...CAN
SEE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...IT WILL BRING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECASTED 24 HOURS AGO. EVEN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE THE
TREND NORTHWARD WHERE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF
DENVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING
DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW
MIX. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT ENOUGH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
NORTHERLY SURGE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE ALL TO SNOW WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING LIKE
THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM DENVER NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS
UPSLOPE DEEPENS AND LIFT ALOFT SPREADS EAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
QUICK MOVING AND TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EVEN IN THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 IS EXPECTED IN
THE FOOTHILLS WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS. HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH. DUE TO APRIL
SUN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION SHOULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ALSO THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
COOL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL HELP TO
TURN WINDS MORE WESTERLY THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEGRADE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COOLER AIR STICKING AROUND KEEPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL GET INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL OF LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE SCARCE AS THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE AROUND BJC AND
DEN...WITH SOME CLEARING NEAR APA. MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EXPECTED COLD
FRONT....AROUND 20Z TO 22Z...CAUSES NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COOL THE AIRMASS ENOUGH
THAT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE DURING ABOUT 00Z TO 06Z.
EXPECT VISIBILITY TO BE AROUND A MILE IN THE SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY
FALL TO A QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CROSS OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AND OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, TO
OUR WEST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
REGION. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, WE EXPECT INCREASING AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF EASTERN PA AND
PERHAPS NORTHERN NJ. POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE EVENING BASED ON HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY LEADING
UP TO DAYBREAK AS STEADIER SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION AT THAT TIME.
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
MOSTLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH, BUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH
CONTINUITY FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE
EAST TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
SHOWERS. WE HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTIONS OF
THUNDER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA, AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, ANOTHER MILD DAY IN EXPECTED, WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. WE MAINLY BASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON A
MET/MAV BLEND WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER
70S INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHC FOR THUNDER IN
THERE FOR FRI EVENING WITH SOME OF THE INSTABILITY INDICESPOINTING
THAT WAY. POPS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE LINGERING H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SKY COVER
IMPROVES TO SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FRI
NIGHT AND BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.
FAIR WEATHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS IS ALL THAT IS
MENTIONED FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOL SUN MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER FOR NEXT TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE DAYS OF
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
WE HAVE NOT PLACED THEM IN THE GRIDS THIS FAR OUT. POPS ARE
GENERALLY LIKE THE WPC GRIDS...MOSTLY CHC POPS ATTM. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOME
SCT CIRRUS THROUGH LATE-DAY, GIVING WAY TO A CEILING AROUND 10,000
FEET DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THEN
DIMINISHING A LITTLE, WITH GUSTS AVERAGING MORE AROUND 22 TO 25 KT
THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR AT MOST SITES
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY BETWEEN 20 TO 23 KTS.
MODEST LLWS APPEARS PROBABLE IN THE 03Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME, BUT MOST
OF THE 45 TO 50 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET LOOK TO BE
ABOVE 2,000 FEET, AND WITH CONTINUED SURFACE WIND GUSTS DURING THIS
PERIOD, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY...SOME INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, SOME THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOME STEADIER SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
WE KEPT ALL TAF SITES AT MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE SHOWERS
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MAINLY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AVERAGING
MOSTLY BETWEEN 8 TO 14 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
MON NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT 10Z/SAT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 25 TO 30KT PLUS AREA AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, REACHING 5 TO 8 FEET
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN. SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF TO 15 TO 20 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT THAT TIME. ALSO,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 25-30
PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE ANY SNOW
COVER(N OF I-80).
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
02/21Z SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SEA BREEZE HAS CLEARED
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND ENTERED EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WHICH
ARE MOVING INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGEST
THE SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER AROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAP INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH LI`S OF -2 TO -4C) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY-MID EVENING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS JUXTAPOSED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-25 KT.
02/18Z DATA ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW
CLOUDS THINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES
AND THE BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST.
SUSPECT THE FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
LATE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND IS RATHER LOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. INCREASED POPS UP TO
30 PERCENT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF METTER-SAINT GEORGE LINE.
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED PENDING LATER RADAR TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
* DOWNGRADED THE AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIER TO PATCHY.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE H3R/RAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND EVEN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IS SEA FOG. WITH DEW
POINTS RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PLACE OVER THE COOL COASTAL
WATERS...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THIS SEA FOG WILL SKIRT OR BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...ENSURING THAT ANY SEA FOG THAT MOVED INLAND WILL BE
SHUNTED QUICKLY BACK OFFSHORE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY LATE. MAINTAINED A MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST LATE. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE
DECENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY MORNING....MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN AND THE IMPACTS OF THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH ALONG A WAVY FRONT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE OF FRONT FOR THE MOST PART...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY AND 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COAST WILL
BE COOLER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AS THE DISTURBANCES PASS BY...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY
ONE PARTICULAR DAY THAT MIGHT SEE MORE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE TIME
IT WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A LITTLE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KSAV JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ROUGHLY 09-12Z. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 10-12 HOURS OUT. A
TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT004 BKN008 WILL BE UTILIZED TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. CONFIDENCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AT KCHS IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER WHERE GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS
UNIFORM. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VFR THERE FOR NOW. VFR WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 04/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND DECREASING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WE COULD SEE PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE COAST. WITH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY SMALL...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DENSE
SEA FOG IS UNLIKELY AND THAT IF ANY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPS IT BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT PERSIST VERY LONG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE FROM
2 TO 3 FEET ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THERE TO BE LESS SEA
FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME LATE WHICH
WOULD ALSO FAVOR LESS SEA FOG LATE.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE THE WINDS COME DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE UP FOR A WHILE AS WELL DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE ATLANTIC.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
555 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
02/21Z SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SEA BREEZE HAS CLEARED
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND ENTERED EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WHICH
ARE MOVING INTO ALLENDALE COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGEST
THE SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING EAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER AROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE RAP INSTABILITY
PROGNOSTICATIONS KEEP WEAK INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH LI`S OF -2 TO -4C) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY-MID EVENING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WITH LOW WBZ HEIGHTS JUXTAPOSED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-25 KT.
02/18Z DATA ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD PRODUCTS DO SHOW
CLOUDS THINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES
AND THE BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST.
SUSPECT THE FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
LATE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
AROUND IS RATHER LOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE.
FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. INCREASED POPS UP TO
30 PERCENT FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF METTER-SAINT GEORGE LINE.
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED PENDING LATER RADAR TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
* DOWNGRADED THE AREAS OF FOG QUALIFIER TO PATCHY.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE H3R/RAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND EVEN SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
BEHIND A SEA BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 70 AT THE BEACHES. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS IS SEA FOG. WITH DEW
POINTS RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE PLACE OVER THE COOL COASTAL
WATERS...AND WITH A FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THIS SEA FOG WILL SKIRT OR BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...ENSURING THAT ANY SEA FOG THAT MOVED INLAND WILL BE
SHUNTED QUICKLY BACK OFFSHORE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY LATE. MAINTAINED A MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST LATE. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE AND THE
DECENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PLACES AS THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY MORNING....MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE WINDS OFF THE OCEAN AND THE IMPACTS OF THE COOLER AIR MASS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE
OVER FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES BY TO OUR
NORTH ALONG A WAVY FRONT. WE WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE OF FRONT FOR THE MOST PART...SO TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY AND 80S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COAST WILL
BE COOLER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS.
AS THE DISTURBANCES PASS BY...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY
ONE PARTICULAR DAY THAT MIGHT SEE MORE ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE TIME
IT WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE MOISTURE FLUX WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS. WE HAVE A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AT BOTH
SITES. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS THOUGH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE WILL BE INLAND OF BOTH
SITES WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. THE SEA BREEZE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND DECREASING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT WE COULD SEE PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S AND WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WITHIN 15 MILES OF THE COAST. WITH THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY SMALL...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DENSE
SEA FOG IS UNLIKELY AND THAT IF ANY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPS IT BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND NOT PERSIST VERY LONG. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE FROM
2 TO 3 FEET ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE...BUT STILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THERE TO BE LESS SEA
FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SOME LATE WHICH
WOULD ALSO FAVOR LESS SEA FOG LATE.
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
BY LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AT LEAST
FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE THE WINDS COME DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE UP FOR A WHILE AS WELL DUE TO A DEVELOPING
LONG NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE ATLANTIC.
NEXT WEEK...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SEAS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO MEANDER AROUND
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TIMING OF RAIN WILL DEPEND ON EXACT FRONTAL
LOCATION AND ANY UPPER IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BOTH OF
WHICH ARE TOO VARIABLE TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT. WILL THUS STICK
WITH SUPERBLEND AND ITS DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND SOME DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING PREDOMINANT MVFR. PERIODS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW IN THE SPECIFICS.
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT OF KLAF AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR OUT OF KHUF BY
VALID TIME. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR
EXPECTED.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE. WILL JUST GO WITH VC MENTION. MANY
STATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN
AT MOST SITES FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL STALL. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY JUST WENT MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LAFAYETTE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS BETTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPSTREAM RADAR IS STILL PRETTY BENIGN...BUT HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SAINT LOUIS. THIS WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS RISK SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 50S BY MID DAY...BUT MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENT
SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS IN IOWA
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION. IF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO OCCUR...A LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE GIVEN THE 35 TO 40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ~40
KNOTS OF FLOW ~2500 FEET OFF THE DECK.
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. IF AFOREMENTIONED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE EVENING HOURS ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND SHOULD SEE PCPN RE-DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...TEMP PROFILES DO BEGIN TO HINT AT POSSIBLE WET SNOW MIX
IF STRONG LIFT IS SUFFICIENT TO COOL LOWER LEVELS IN AFTERNOON.
THIS TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WITH WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER PREFER TO HOLD OFF ANY SNOW MENTION UNTIL EVENING
HOURS WHEN COLDER AIR DEEPENS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING THE AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY TO BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND FRONT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUS PROBLEMS SURROUND
STRONG THERMAL CONTRAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY AND TEMP/POP FORECAST
DEPENDENT ON ITS LOCATION. STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
BAND OF SHRA/TS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FWA BY 18Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THIS CONVECTION BACK TO THE CDFNT OVER NRN IL SHOULD
PERSIST THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHRA/TS EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... HWVR GIVEN CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THERE IS SUFFICIENT
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH AT
SBN AND VCTS AT FWA FOR NOW. WITH FROPA THIS EVE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER FROPA THIS EVE. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT STALLS TO THE S-SE MAY
RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU APR 2 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE...DELAYED INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH.
ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
ONLY MENTIONED IT OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
TO GRIDS IN REST OF FORECAST.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING UPPER
AND SURFACE WAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THAT
WAS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUN THIS EVENING...SAVE THE
NAM...ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THEY ONCE WERE. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OF SURFACE WAVES AND THEREFORE FRONTAL
POSITION ON FRIDAY PER THE STEADIER 12Z ECMWF. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS
WERE CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AS WAS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALBEIT SLOWER WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. OVERALL...FEEL A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND 12Z ECENS LOOKS BEST.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MERRIVILLE AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON...TO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...BEFORE IT
TEMPORARILY STALLS WITH THE WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. FINALLY...THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS EXIT
BY 06Z SATURDAY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPC SREF ENSEMBLES WERE SHOWING INCREASING MIXED LAYER CAPE TODAY
WITH NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR MUNCIE AND AROUND 1000 J/K NEAR VINCENNES
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
TONIGHT WITH NIGHTFALL AND FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST.
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
WAVE...SHOULD MOVE TO VINCENNES AND TERRE HAUTE AFTER 5 AM AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING PER THE 05Z HRRR RAPID REFRESH
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND
OTHERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHEAST
AND STABILITY INCREASES NORTH OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...WILL ONLY
CARRY EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THE 500-1000 J/KG CAPES
COMBINED WITH AROUND 200 METERS SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED
HELICITY...PER 21Z SPC SREF ENSEMBLES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
OF INDIANAPOLIS...WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...WITH
LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND BETTER SHEAR SOUTH OF THERE. OVERALL...SPC
DAY1 ENHANCED RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KNOX...DAVIESS AND
MARTIN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS
GOOD WITH MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO AS LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO LESS THAN 3000 FEET. IF EVEN BRIEF BREAKS
OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS COULD ALSO AID IN ROTATING
STORMS.
RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS JET STREAKS MOVE
THROUGH THE 100 PLUS KNOT UPPER JET THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. JET
INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...DISPLAYED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...OR TWICE OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MENTION TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
FINALLY...SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BUFKIT SUGGESTING
GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE
INVERSION DIES.
WENT WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS DO TO THICK CLOUD
COVER. ALSO...WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE MILD 00Z NAM TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST FRI APR 02 2015
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER TOP OF A MISSISSIPPI RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE PROGS BRING IN SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WARM IT UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SUNNY SKIES...SIMILAR 00Z MOS...
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY EXACERBATE
AN EXISTING HYDROLOGIC ISSUE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
POSSIBILITY IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.
&&
.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING PREDOMINANT MVFR. PERIODS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST SITES. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW IN THE SPECIFICS.
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT OF KLAF AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR OUT OF KHUF BY
VALID TIME. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES WILL KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO COVER THIS FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION. MVFR
EXPECTED.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE. WILL JUST GO WITH VC MENTION. MANY
STATIONS UPSTREAM HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AND WILL ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN
AT MOST SITES FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL STALL. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY JUST WENT MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LAFAYETTE WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP
CEILINGS BETTER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND...REDUCING POPS TO SLIGHTS IN OUR
FAR EASTERN CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
BEFORE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
BUREAU COUNTY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN LAST NIGHT...AROUND ONE-HALF
INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REPORTED LESS THAN 1/4 INCH WITH
SOME SPOTS NOT A DROP OF RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALSO SCALED
THUNDER MENTION BACK TO ISOLATED. RAIN COVERAGE HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INTENSITY HAS PICKED UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE STORMS IN THE FAR EAST LOOK TO BE FUELED BY
THE NOSE OF A NEAR 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AT 300 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HAD FINALLY MADE IT INTO
EASTERN IOWA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT WERE MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FUELED BY A RIBBON OF MU
CAPE AOA 500 J/KG AND A SWATH OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ILLINOIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP
TRENDS/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND
ARW/NMM ARE RUNNING A BIT SLOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE THE CURRENT
WEATHER MODELED WELL. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS.
HIGHEST QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WEST AND THE
FAR EASTERN FRINGE...WITH SPOTTIER RAIN COVERAGE CENTRAL. AFTER
12Z...HIGHEST QPF AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOCATED
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE TENTH TO THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VIRTUALLY NIL. RAIN WILL END IN THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BLENDED TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKS REASONABLE.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE...AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SEES ONE SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS
FORECAST ISSUES MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A FEW QUICK
SYSTEMS...THEN AN ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LIKE ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT IN THE AFD...A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO
OUR SOUTH AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
THIS WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...BRINGING IT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND THEN INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVING THE FRONT
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
MOST PRECIP NORTH INTO OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE SREF MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE TEMPS IN EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SNOWFALL. THE REST OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE US ABOVE FREEZING. THE OPERATIONAL NAM...A
MEMBER OF THE SREF...HAS NO QPF FOR US DURING THIS TIME. SO THERE
IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IN THE SREF. THINK THE SREF MEAN IS
BEING SWAYED HEAVILY BY ONE MEMBER...SO DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
SNOW.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. LATEST RUNS BRING
THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH...SO ONLY OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IT
APPEARS THAT RASN MIX WOULD BE PREFERRED FOR ANY PRECIP THAT
FALLS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE
AREA AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE SEE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE FINESCALE
FEATURES ARE YET TO BE AGREED UPON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ARE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS WITH THE ECMWF BEING WET AND
THE GFS BEING DRY. OBVIOUSLY AS WE GET CLOSER THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FORECAST CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD AS FAR
NORTH AS ABOUT HIGHWAY 30. ON THE NORTH FRINGE THERE MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KCID/KMLI. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND 01Z. FROM
02Z-10Z IFR/VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING
25-30KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTS PASSAGE. LIGHT RAIN/RAIN EXPECTED
WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES BUT THE GREATER IMPACT TO AVIATION
WILL BE THE CIGS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AROUND 09Z FOR AN
HOUR OR SO. AROUND 11Z CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH NORTH WINDS 10KTS
OR SO. BY 16Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AM EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 12KTS. UPDATES TO THE TAF ARE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z OR SO
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 20KTS. FROM 01Z-14Z IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 11Z-14Z. AROUND
15Z-21Z CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20KTS.
AFTER 22Z JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO 00Z-06Z...AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS 06Z-12Z. CHALLENGES
WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE QPFS PLUS THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE
PHASE CHANGE.
FROM 00Z TO 06Z...CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS ALLOWED
DECENT SURFACE HEATING AND PRODUCED MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 250
J/KG. HRRR MODEL SWEEPS THIS INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. COMBINE THIS WITH SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HRRR DEVELOPS
CONVECTION AROUND GOODLAND ABOUT 01Z NEAR A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...AND ADVECTS CONVECTION EAST THROUGH 03Z. LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOL/STABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
FROM 06Z TO 12Z...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS QPFS RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 04Z...FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND 08Z...AND
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z. SNOW AMOUNTS...OF
COURSE...WILL DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE PHASE CHANGE OCCURS. WILL GO
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS YUMA COUNTY WHERE SNOW DURATIONS WILL
BE THE LONGEST...TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH FURTHER EAST.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EAST FRIDAY. AFTER SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING...AIR MASS WILL DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...UP TO A 72-HOUR PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT BOTH 700/500 MB WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW
FROM THE WSW WHILE SURFACE FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MORE SSW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH ALSO
SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE WAA/LOW RH DRAW FROM MEXICO.
850 MB TEMPS START OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE +13C TO +19C ON SATURDAY
FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF...WITH WARMEST AREAS WEST AND SOUTH. TEMPS
INCREASE INTO THE +18C TO +24C RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH AGAIN
WARMEST AREAS WEST AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
THIS IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY 850 TEMPS DIFFERING BETWEEN THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AS TIMING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTH AT ISSUE. GFS(+19C TO +25C...WARMEST SOUTH) AND ECMWF(+10C
TO +17C...WARMEST SOUTH). THE LATTER COULD MEAN EARLY/SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS WITH ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS. THESE NUMBERS WILL
GIVE THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASING FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
WITH THE STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME COMES THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN TANDEM INCREASING HIGHS. BOUNDARY
LAYER/SURFACE RH FROM LATEST GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THE AREA OF 15
PERCENT OR LOWER STARTING IN EASTERN COLORADO...EXPANDING TO MOSTLY
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY...THEN ENTIRE CWA FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...BUT LATEST ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING RH OVER NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BOUNDARY ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SSW SFC FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL WINDS AT
700/500 MB COULD BRING THE FIRE WX DANGER CHANCES UP DURING THIS
TIME. AT THIS TIME LATEST BUFKIT SHOWS WINDS POTENTIALLY MIXING DOWN
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE SO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOUR PERIODS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A
LOWERING/DROP OFF IN TEMPS FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS SEEN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN FOCUS FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE A SHIFTING OF THE
REMAINING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH THAT
STARTS OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GIVING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE NOSING SOUTH UNDER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT ANY MAJOR CHANCES
FOR PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OFF THE
ROCKIES...TAPPING INTO ESE SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING FOR MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL HIT A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY FOR
TEMPS TO GIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT -RW THRU EVENT. MODEL QPF SUPPORTS 0.05-0.10" OVER A 48-
HOUR PERIOD. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S THRU THE MID 60S...COOLEST WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS FROM
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. FROM 18Z-00Z VFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR AT BOTH SITES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LACKING...EXPECT
ENOUGH LIFT FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z...AND MENTIONED STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH SITES. MAIN MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
AFTER 06Z...AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
STEADILY AFTER THAT TIME. SO...EXPECT RAIN TURNING TO SNOW FROM
08Z-12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND POSSIBLY LOWER. SURFACE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MENTZER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EFFECTIVE TONIGHT AT 8PM THROUGH 11
PM FRIDAY. FOLLOWED LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GUIDANCE AND 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND NEIGHBORING WFOS.
GREATEST THREAT IS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WATCH...BUT WANTED TO
ALLOW A BUFFER ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE WATCH SO HAVE INCLUDED
ALL BY THE VA BORDER COUNTIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR...SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS AND
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST HRRR HAVE LOW RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH INCREASING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE EXAMINING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND MAKE
DETERMINATION ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WPC
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD BE IMPACTED THE
MOST. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR LINGERING ALOFT OVER THE REGION...A WET AND
STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE. AT 3 AM RIDGETOPS STILL HAD DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WAS ON THE WAY IN. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE NEAR 60
FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY ADVECTED
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING CONVECTION IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY MOVES EAST TODAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL
INITIALLY BATTLE LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR OVER OUR
AREA...AND ONLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN USED TODAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. OUR FAR NW COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE...AND
LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED THERE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND
DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WILL BE LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE PRECIP. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A
HIGHER POP. HOWEVER...THE BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...AND THEN GET
A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROMPTS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
JUST TO OUR NORTH DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONT. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SINCE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT WOULD
MEAN HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A GREATER THREAT
OF FLOODING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH.
PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DURING THIS EVENT...AND SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA E...AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS AS ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...RAIN...AND
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF KENTUCKY. COOLER...DRIER
AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL IN ALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS REACHING THE MID 50S AND MID 60S
RESPECTIVELY.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS TURN MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN WARM...MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. IN
FACT... CAPE AND LI/S LOOK JUST AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DOES IN THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. SO HAVE WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND FOR POPS
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE WX GRIDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR TO OK WILL ONLY
SLOWING MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AREAS...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST WE ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-
106>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
311 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. PER
THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...OPTED TO KEEP POPS
HIGH. THERE IS A BIT OF CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL MAKE
IT HERE BEFORE IT IS FILLED IN WITH MORE CONVECTION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH FURTHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN THE WIND AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN
SHOWERS... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 30MPH TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LATEST HI RES DATA HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING TOWARD
THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT WITH CLOUD
COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. PWAT
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH
QPF WILL BE LATER FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES AND RIDES
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY. RATHER
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER JET MAXIMA SEEM TO POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE FRONT TO LOSE ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM AND STALL. LIKEWISE...MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUMES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WIDE RIBBON OF 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH PWATS FEEDING UP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY`S FIRST PUSH INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH THE FIRST PUSH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE
PULLS EASTWARD...AND THE FRONT LINGERS IN OR NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE AREA...A COUPLE MORE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO BRING
ADDITIONAL AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SUCCESSIVE BOUTS OF RAINFALL
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND AS A
RESULT.
THE NEXT WAVE TO TRAVERSE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS ONE WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIKELY TO RUN UP
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST PUSH WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MUCH DEEPER DYNAMICAL FORCING. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE COLD FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH IN ITS WAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH THAT RAIN
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS WELL.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY ABRUPT LAYER TEMPERATURE
FALLS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH DEFORMATION LIFT REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAST SURFACE WAVE...AND COPIOUS MOISTURE
TO STILL WORK WITH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD...HOWEVER IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE AN ABRUPT ENDING TO THE
WARM AND WET WEATHER THAT WILL PRECEDE IT.
COLDER AND QUICKLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
WARMER AIR SLOWLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. FRIES
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE
THE BULK OF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...OPTED TO CARRY THESE AS TEMPO
GROUPS AND AMEND AS NEEDED FOR THUNDER WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY PRESENT.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH A MENTION AT EVERY TAF LOCATION
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EXPECT
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN TAF SITES BY MORNING AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WITH THE NEXT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
WVZ012-021>023-041.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1250 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
HOLD STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PA DESPITE MOVING INTO VERY
DRY AIR PER THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EXPECT MEASURABLE RAIN...TO
ABOUT .20 INCH WITH THIS INITIAL LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REMAIN WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE HIGH 60`S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA...WETBULBING FROM PRECIP WILL DROP EVERYONE BACK
INTO THE 50`S. THERE IS A BIT OF CLEARING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN INDIANA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT
WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT IS FILLED IN WITH MORE
CONVECTION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH FURTHER FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR
30MPH POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS TAP INTO THESE HIGHER WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE RUC AND HRRR HAVE IT RACING
TOWARD THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS IS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. UNSURE HOW MUCH THUNDER WE CAN EXPECT
WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL STALL AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...SO LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ELEVATED DESPITE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE S OF PIT AGAIN IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY PRECIP...THOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENDS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF...MAINLY DUE TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL
SURFACE WAVE...AND THE MORE REASONABLE QPF NUMBERS FROM THE ECMWF.
AFTER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE LATER SATURDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO BRUSH AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY
WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS SATURDAY...WITH SOME RECOVERY FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS.
THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MIDDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE ADDED VCTS
TO ZZV AND WILL FURTHER AMEND AS NEEDED IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS THE BEST SO TIMING WAS MAINTAINED
OFF OF GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PORTS WHERE A THUNDERSTORM PASSES AND GENERAL VFR IS
MAINTAINED UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR WIND SHEAR UNTIL BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND WILL BE REINTRODUCED
IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND
PROBABLY EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE ENCROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN A
NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS (20 TO 30 PCT) WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL
IT COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...MOST OF THE 12Z MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH
PER PAST FEW RUNS OF ECMWF WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING OVER WI WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 250-300
MB JET MAX E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF/GEM-NH/NAM MODEL BLEND AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO MAINLY SCNTRL UPPER MI. HAVE DECIDED TO USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF ACROSS THE FCST AREA RANGING FROM LESS THAN .10
INCH ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NORTH TO NEAR .20 INCH AT KMNM. GIVEN
NEAR 10 TO 1 SLR/S EXPECTED COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS JUST INLAND
FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LAKE MI AND OVER THE FAR EAST.
MON-TUE...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD BRING MORE PCPN INTO THE NRN LAKES MAINLY FOR MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MOST OF THE MODELS ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON MON AS A CONFLUENT FLOW INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE
DOMINANT SFC RDGG AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES. ARRIVAL
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF
WILL BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
UPPER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER MI LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NRN CWA.
TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS QUITE A DEPARTURE FROM ITS
PREV COUPLE OF RUNS. AFTER SHOWING STRONGER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MON INTO TUE...IT THEN EJECTS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE FROM THE WRN CONUS TROF NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE WED INTO THU. IN TURN...THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS MUCH
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MI THAN PREV RUNS. THIS
SOLN BRINGS AN AREA OF WAA PCPN INTO UPPER MI MAINLY WED AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THU. ECMWF CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PCPN COULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF
OF THE CWA. THIS OBVIOUSLY WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE IF MODEL TRENDS WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT A WETTER FCST FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF DRIER CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS BOTH THE GFS
AND GEM-NH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS SHOWING A SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS AT KIWD AND KCMX...WILL BE MAIN STORY
INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR LOW CLOUDS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM THOUGH AND THESE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
336 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
...GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING THEN TURNING COLDER FOR FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MSLP AROUND 989MB TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO HAS PUSHED A TROUGH ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. AREA OF RAIN ALONG
THE TROUGH ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK HAS PUSHED EAST
OF CWA AND CLEARING SKIES ARE STEADILY SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER
CWA. WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE WELL
INTO THE 50S MUCH OF CWA...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WITH LATER DEPARTURE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERN INITIALLY IS ON WINDS OVER THE WEST CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALREADY PUT OUT SPS TO COVER THE GUSTY WINDS AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATED GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KTS. HAVE BEEN
WATCHING UPSTREAM TO SEE HOW HIGH WINDS HAVE GUSTED AND THUS FAR AS
OF 18Z...WINDS HAVE BEEN PEAKING NEAR 40 KTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MN. THIS EQUATES TO MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 800MB OR 7000FT
AGL. EXTRAPOLATING THESE TRENDS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP/HRRR AND NAM
OUTPUT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 40 KTS OVER FAR WEST CWA
20Z-24Z...VCNTY OF KIWD...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COPPER
COUNTRY. INSTEAD OF ISSUING A SHORT DURATION WIND ADVY...WILL
CONTINUE WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THE GUSTIER WINDS.
THINKING IS THAT ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL OVERALL BE ISOLD DUE TO LACK
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER AND NO REAL PRESSURE RISE TO
ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS AND AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH.
CARRIED GUSTIER WEST WINDS OVER ROUGHLY WEST HALF OF CWA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS BY LATER EVENING AS BLYR COOLS AND
STABILITY INCREASES.
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES FALLING BLO 20 PCT OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO
LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO NOT
ISSUE ANY FIRE WX PRODUCTS THOUGH AS EVEN FOR THE AREAS NOW FREE OF
SNOW...SOILS ARE STILL FAIRLY MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND OVERALL
COOLER/WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER. THIS WAS DISCUSSED WITH FIRE WX
CUSTOMERS ON WED AFTN.
COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OF SFC LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. W WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. MAY SEE
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. PRETTY CHILLY IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL CANADA THIS AFTN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS OVER MUCH OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE BLO H85...BUT WITH
INVERSIONS MAINLY BLO H85 AND A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE ALONG WITH
QUICKLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN H85 TEMPS -10C TO -12C. WILL CONTINUE
THE ISOLD POPS FOR LGT SNOW SHOWERS. THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS INTO
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT BKN-OVC CLOUDS INTO AFTN BEFORE
THE HIGH CLEARS OUT THE SKIES BY LATE AFTN. WILL BE QUITE THE SWING
IN TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY STAYING IN THE UPR
20S TO LWR 30S OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAYBE REACHING LOWER 40S IN
THE FAR SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
FRI...CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-12C BY 12Z/FRI. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 4K FT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES...THE FCST MAINTAINS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EARLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST LOCATIONS FAVROED BY NNW FLOW.
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER LINGERING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LIMIT ANY LES POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN EXPECT FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...ABOUT
25 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN A NW FLOW AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING INDICATED...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH. IF PCPN OCCURS SOUTH CENTRAL IT
COULD BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN.
SUN...STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND LOWER FCST CONFIDENCE.
THE 12Z/01 AND 00Z/02 ECMWF SHOW A MORE PROMINENT SFC-850 MB WARM
FRONT OVER WI DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIV INCREASES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET E OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE GFS AND GEM KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THE RESULTING PCPN FARTHER
SOUTH.
MON-WED...AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN CONUS THE RESULTING SW FLOW
THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND WAA PATTERN COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE NRN LAKES. THE 00Z/02 ECMWF STILL SHOWS
CONFLUENT FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN LAKES ON MON
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/01 RUN...BUT BEGINS TO TREND FARTHER NORTH WITH
PLAINS SYSTEM FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT BRINGING PCPN INTO THE
AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM-NH CONTINUE TO BRING THE PLAINS SFC LOW
AND ASSOC WARM FRONT AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH...SPREADING SNOW INTO
UPPER MI MON. MODELS CONSENSUS FAVORS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE
UPPER MI MON AND ESPECAILLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE GREATEST
PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECTED DRIER WEATHER BY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING IN FM
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
GUSTY WEST WINDS...OVER 30 KTS AT KIWD AND KCMX...WILL BE MAIN STORY
INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR LOW CLOUDS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM THOUGH AND THESE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT KIWD LATE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KTS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD STILL REACH GALES OVER MAINLY CNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPANDS FM CNTRL CANADA TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS THROUGH
THIS TIME TO STAY AT OR BLO 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1215 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AND ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE RISK OF
THUNDER MAY BE DWINDLING. THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE TOUCHED
OFF A FEW TSTMS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT LATEST TSTM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF A FEW RUMBLES SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
THROUGH 21Z WHERE NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE H8-H5 THETA-E
LAPSE RATES EXIST. DESPITE THE LIMITED THUNDER THREAT... OVERALL
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE IS NOTED ON A 05Z RAP SOUNDING...BUT HEALTHY
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THIS WRITING THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. H925 TO H850 LAYER WAA IS ALSO ONGOING
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
H850 THERMAL TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS...MUCH HIGHER THETA E AIR
ADVECTS IN AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN IL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BUT LOSE SOME OF ITS
PUNCH. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE
TIME OF ITS ARRIVAL AROUND 12Z. RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER...INCREASE AFTER 11Z. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
CWA BETWEEN 16-22Z. DIURNAL HEATING JUST PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL GIVE MOST AREAS THEIR BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER AND
ASSOCIATED NON-SEVERE THREATS...SUCH AS MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT
BEST...BUT HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-96. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 35-45 KNOTS SOUTH OF I-96
AT 18Z. BOTTOM LINE...RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ANOTHER PV ANOMALY AND SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW...SUPPORTING MAINLY A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER MI IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITHIN A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MEANING GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH FREQUENT BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME SNOW AT TIMES.
A PLAINS LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
COLD AIR HAS ERODED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FORECAST OF ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN.
A SECOND WAVE PROLONGS THE PRECIP INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR RETURNS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
TO 20 TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO BLO 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
SOUTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 2 FEET THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER WESTERLY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN WAVES
BUILDING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015
LITTLE OR NO RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND WITHIN
THE NEAR FUTURE. MINOR WITHIN BANK RISES MAY OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS BEEN
LOCALIZED AND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE TODAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND COULD MIX WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE
END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD...YET ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK MAY EXCEED AN
INCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RESPONSE TIMES BETWEEN EPISODES
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RISES TO OCCUR.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...EBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
542 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
VFR conditions initially, though cloud cover will begin to creep in
as the evening progresses. A wave of activity will push through
overnight, with mostly light rain expected, though nearby convective
activity to the south may lead to some isolated thunderstorms.
Expecting to see MVFR cigs by early Friday morning. Precip will exit the
area early Friday afternoon, though strong backing winds with gusts up
to 25 kts to 30 kts will persist through the remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Tonight - Friday:
A frontal boundary which passed southeast through the CWA this
morning lies from southeast KS through east central MO. Scattered
convection will initially form along this boundary late this
afternoon and early evening. However, our weather will likely be
dictated by a stationary h8 front which is progged to lie across the
southern CWA.
Increasing isentropic ascent on the 300K and 305K surfaces will
allow better moisture and weak instability to flow northward into
the CWA overnight. Satellite imagery shows rapid drying occurring
through the Central Rockies into northwest KS indicating the
presence of a pronounced upper level jet streak. Operational models
indicate a 130-140kt 250mb jet max will stretch eastward through MO
tonight/Friday allowing strung out energy to flow eastward.
Initially model soundings indicate extensive/thickening mid cloud
production and skinny CAPE. A very dry sub-cloud region will
initially absorb the precipitation which falls across KS and western
MO later this evening but believe the the sounding will saturate
faster than anticipated due to the moderately strong isentropic
ascent and jet energy. Have increased PoPs later this evening and
through the night into Friday morning to support the above scenario.
Will also need to keep an eye out for small scale bowing segments
which the HRRR zips ese across central KS and west central MO late
this evening. The HRRR as well as a couple of other short-range
convective allowing models have generated such systems. With 0-6km
shear of 60-70kts any such storm will have the potential to generate
damaging winds and low-end severe hail.
The rain will end from west to east Friday morning and exit the
eastern CWA by early afternoon. increasing surface pressure gradient
will generate strong/gusty winds for most of the day and keep
temperatures well below average.
Saturday - Sunday:
Still expect a rather quiet weekend with weak ridging aloft with
southerly boundary layer winds. Sunday max temperatures may be too
pessimistic but is based on increasing cloud cover as an upper
system tracks through KS/OK. Could see some light precipitation nose
into the southern CWA later in the day Sunday.
Sunday night - Thursday:
Medium range models continue to support the unsettled pattern
referred to yesterday for this period. A general upper trough set up
over the western U.S and pressure falls over the Southern/Central
Plains will allow a warm sector to set up east of the Rockies with
the southerly low-level jet tapping into the moisture from the Gulf
of Mexico. A frontal boundary with a pronounced dry slot over the
plains looks like the finishing touches for a typical set-up for
severe weather. Timing is difficult this far out but suspect there
will be one or two days where severe storms could visit our CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
Generally VFR conditions through this evening. South of Kansas City, scattered
late afternoon/early evening convection expected along/just north of
a stalled front from west central through central MO. Later tonight
areas of rain expected to form over KS and spread across most of the
region towards sunrise and continue through the morning. Initially
VFR ceilings but after several hours of rain should see MVFR ceilings
form as winds ramp up from the north and become quite gusty.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WINDS NOW
NW ACROSS THE REGION. MIXING DEPTH IS MORE SHALLOW ALONG WITH
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 7PM...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NO MORE RETURNS AS THE
FORCING HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED...AND REMOVED ANY LINGERING
POPS FOR THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...AND MIN TEMPS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S.
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 7PM SINCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE DECREASING AND HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RAP TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RAP AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
WINDS NOW NW AT ALL TAF SITES...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE TRACKING A COLD
FRONT FROM GRAND FORKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. WITHIN THE
LAST 30 MIN...COLD FROPA OCCURRED AT THE NWS OFFICE. FRONT WAS
PROCEED WITH A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT RAIN...A QUICK 15 DEG DROP
ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW PELLETS...THEN A TRANSITION TO SNOW FLAKES
ALL WITHIN A 15 MIN PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR...MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT THESE WX
TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT
DEPARTS THE CWA...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW BEHIND IT. FOR
SIMPLICITY...HAVE PUT ALL SNOW IN FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN AS THAT IS
THE PREDOMINANT P TYPE. RUC TEMPS BEST INDICATING NON DIURNAL
TREND BUT TOO WARM...SO INITIATED TEMP BIAS TOOL WITH RUC AND RAN
IT THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD REACH UPPER TEENS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 200.
TONIGHT...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF AREA BY 03Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. AS MENTIONED...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S AND PERHAPS UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EVEN LOW
AROUND LAKES IN N CNTRL MN.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO DVL REGION
AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY AROUND NOONTIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING A RETURN OF WARM AIR
TO WESTERN ZONES...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST
TO THE MID 30S EAST. NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK VORT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING...WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EVENING HOURS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. P TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW FLAKES IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS FALL. NOTE BIS
OFFICE HAS THUNDER ACROSS CNTRL DAKOTAS AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS
INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND AND W CNTRL MN. SAT NIGHT...A
BAND OF PRECIP MAY SET UP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SD AND SW MN. HAVE CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA
WITH MAIN ISSUE BEING P TYPE...DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR
ADVECTS NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHERLY AND KEEPS
SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S...SO OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BACK TO
SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ASPHALT TEMPS ARE AROUND
35 DEG.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA BY DAY 5 AS LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CANADA. SPLIT
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. WILL
BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.
POPS TRIMMED BACK IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR WED NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS FOR MON AND TUE. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR WED AND DECREASED ZERO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ALSO SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WHERE PRECIP WAS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. BRISK WEST WINDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
GFK AROUND 20Z TO 21Z AND FAR AROUND 22Z TO 23Z. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR LARGE CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE MID 20S OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE REPLACED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 40 MPH BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND RECOVERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. SHIFTING WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ANY BURNS OR FIRES CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST METARS INDICATING WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE
ALONG THE I 94 CORRIDOR WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE INTL BORDER...RESULTING IN AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WHILE UPSTREAM WINDS NEAR WINNIPEG
ARE IN CRITERIA...THOSE HIGHER WINDS ARE COMING OFF OF THE LAKES
AND WINDS TO THE SOUTH ARE UNDER CRITERIA. THINKING THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS
IS. ALL PRECIP IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH RAPIDLY
DROPPING TEMPS...ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SNOW. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH NO ACCUMULATION AS TEMPS HAD RISEN INTO THE MID
40S...EXPECT THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT DESPITE REPORTS OF
BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VSBYS FOR VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ONLY
CHANGE TO FCST IS TO CHANGE P TYPE IN MN TO ALL SNOW AFT 21Z...AND
ALL SNOW IN ND EFFECTIVE THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING IN FROM CANADA IS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER...BETWEEN
WINNIPEG AND THE INTL BORDER. WINDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AND INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS CNTRL ND. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN ZONES BY NOONTIME...AND ONLY IMPACT
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NW.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTN...WITH THE BEST MIXING AND STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES MID AFTN. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
NOONTIME TO 7 PM CDT.
ALSO MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS AS CURRENT ECHOES WEST OF
THE CWA AND MOST OF CWA IS CLEAR...WITH CLOUDS NOW INCREASING OVER
NORTHEAST ND. USED RUC AS GUIDANCE AND DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WINDS AND TEMPS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH INVERSION BREAK AROUND 15Z AND ARE REFLECTED IN THE
FCST. ALSO EXPECTING WINDS TO HOVER NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
SW ZONES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. TEMPS SO
FAR LOOKING OKAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS ATTM. REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY. UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC
LAYER. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ARE ALSO SHOWN THRU AROUND 850MB TO
ALLOW MIXING OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE FAR SRN ZONES...BUT MARGINALLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONLY A FEW HOURS SO WILL HOLD ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW.
COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE
OF A NW FLOW REGIME WITH ANOTHER WAVE FCST TO CROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY COOL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND THEN
COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SYSTEM WILL BRING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY...AND
THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME PRECIP WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE. THINK THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GEM TRACKS A STRONG SFC
LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND DUMPS OVER A FOOT OF SNOW ALL THE WAY
NORTH OF FARGO...BUT THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WEAKER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THEIR MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS HIGH WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THINK
WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY THAT POINT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WERE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. ALSO SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WHERE PRECIP WAS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. BRISK WEST WINDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
GFK AROUND 20Z TO 21Z AND FAR AROUND 22Z TO 23Z. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 20
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST AND DROP BELOW 25
PERCENT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THE WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND WITH VERY DRY FUELS...FIRES
COULD SEE EXPLOSIVE GROWTH EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE BORDERLINE
CATEGORY. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IF THE COLD FRONT COMES IN A BIT FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THERE COULD BE SOME RH RECOVERY...BUT FOR NOW IT SEEMS THAT
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY DRY AND WINDY SO WILL GO WITH THE RED
FLAG AND LATER SHIFTS CAN CANCEL EARLY IF NEEDED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-
052-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-022-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES
FIRE WEATHER...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
647 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INITIAL AXIS OF STORMS MOVING THRU ILN/S SRN FA. IN WAKE OF THIS
AXIS OF STORMS SEVERE THREAT HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED.
HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS SRN INDIANA WHERE BLYR CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. LATEST HRRR OUTPUT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PUSH INTO ILN/S SW CWA AND THEN WEAKEN SOME
AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION. QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SVR CHANCES. CAN NOT RULE OUT PSBL ISOLD
SVR OVER OUR SW COUNTIES BUT THIS WINDOW DIMINISHES BY LATE
EVENING WITH INSTBY BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
EVENTUALLY OVERNIGHT...STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
FLOOD SIGNAL ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BROAD MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL INSTBY
HAS DEVELOPED INTO SW OHIO. STORMS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ARE
DEVELOPING INTO A LINE. WIND FIELDS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS SHOW SUGGEST THAT THIS COLD POOL DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO ILN/S SW FA IN RGN OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO COME
TOGETHER AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z IN NEXT
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
IN FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PW/S TO INCREASE TO AROUND 250
PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT 1 TO
3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GOOD GRADIENT TO TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. LOWS
FROM THE MID/UPR 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA FRIDAY WITH H5 TROF SETTLING INTO GREAT
LAKES/OH VLY FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AXIS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING TO BECOME ENHANCED WITH 8H
TROF DROPPING THRU FA FRIDAY AFTN/FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SFC
WAVE TO RIPPLE NE THRU THE FA FRIDAY EVENING. FRONT/SFC LOW
BISECTING FA WILL LEAD TO GOOD TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH FRIDAYS
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NW TO THE UPPER 60S SE.
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF ILN/S FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX PRIOR TO ENDING AS
COLDER AIR IS FUNNELED IN. ANY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AND ONLY HAVE
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER EXTREME NE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NW TO THE UPPER 30S SE.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY. EXPECT
DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER
50S SE.
THIS SFC HIGH TO BUILD ACRS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
EAST TO THE MID/UPR 30S WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NEAR THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL FORM...BUT THE LOCATION...TIMING AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION
IS IN QUESTION. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MONDAY IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD OHIO. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNDULATING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWERS 60S. IT MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER MONDAY UNDER WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THIS
PERIOD WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY BOOST READINGS TO AROUND 70. A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL LOWER 60S APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A POOR JOB GIVEN CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
AND THEREFORE THE TIMING OF FUTURE CONVECTION AND WHEN IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF STIES HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY. WARM...MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WHICH IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN GREAT INSTABILITY AND PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE PLACED TEMPO TSRA IN ALL TAF SITES
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD STALL NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SATURATED AIRMASS AND NIGHT TIME COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
FOR FRIDAY...MORE DIGGING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PERTURB A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR.
VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ070>073-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
203 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND DRAG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING REPORTED AS WELL. BEHIND
THIS LINE THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AS WELL. THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
ALOFT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST
IT WILL GET BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS SOME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO. LOCAL SCHEMES SUGGEST
GUSTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH 40 MPH
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM HOWEVER CLOUDS AT THIS POINT REMAIN FAIRLY THIN
AND ANY PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE AREA. BY 12Z THE HRRR HAS SHOWERS
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SREF ALSO HAD PRECIP NEAR THE AREA AT
12Z WHILE THE NAM PRINTS OUT A SWATH OF CAPE ON OUR WESTERN
BORDER. GIVEN THIS WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AT 12Z.
BY 15Z DECENT MOISTURE REACHES AS FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND. FURTHER
SATURATION OCCURS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY IN THE WEST THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST EARLY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WILL HAVE
THUNDER BEGIN AT NOON. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH 70 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT BEGINS WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF CONVECTION IN OR
MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE CAT POPS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DROP IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHERN OHIO WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BY FRIDAY EVENING HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN OHIO
SPREADING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WILL BEGIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH BUT
INCREASE TO CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON BROUGHT
CATEGORICAL POPS BACK TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT AND THE TRICKY BIT IS THAT COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY TURN PRECIP OVER TO SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC ISSUE OF HOW LONG WILL SNOW OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. MODELS HAVE SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY PAST
COUPLE NIGHT WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A COUPLE INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. THE MOST SHOULD BE IN THE ELEVATED AREAS OF
NWRN PA WHERE 4 INCHES COULD FALL. DONT EXPECT WARNING AMOUNTS BUT
COULD POSSIBLY END UP NEEDING AN ADVISORY. PRECIP SHOULD END BY
12Z SATURDAY MOST PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING ONLY
FOR NWRN PA AND XTRM NERN OHIO. SAT MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACK DOORS
INTO THE AREA. NOT A LOT OF FORCING SO WILL HAVE ONLY
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE GFS IS SHOWING
THAT THE GLFMX MOISTURE GETS TAPPED...REACHING INTO THE AFTER
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL. CHILLY SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMER AND WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY.
ECMWF TRACK AND TIMING FASTER THAN LATEST GFS. FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF
AREA AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SECOND LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY. AGAIN PRECISE TIMING STILL IN DOUBT SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS AFTER TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE LAST BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
REACHING THE TOLEDO AREA BY 22Z AND ERI TOWARDS 00Z. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WITH
VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO
WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BUT IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
NON VFR RETURNING MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
LAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS AGAIN DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH AND THEN
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT...BUT RETURN AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UPSTATE AND SRN TIER OF
NC...AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER. THE
FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
ENCROACHING SFC BASED INSTABILITY FARTHER E AND SE. THE SECOND ROUND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY TRANSIT THE SRN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO FOCUS ON THESE TWO ROUNDS. OTHERWISE...INSITU DAMMING
REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER FOOTHILLS SECTIONS...BUT WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAD. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES APPEARS THE MAIN ISSUE WITH ANY
TSRA THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND QUITE THE
DIFFERENCE FROM THOSE TODAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW SO
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON MIXING ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATE FRIDAY WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
LATE IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE FRONT REMAINS
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWFA AROUND 00Z SAT...BUT THE HIGH RES
MODELS AND THE NAM/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING. THE ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM SHUD BE UNSTABLE ENUF WITH PLENTY OF
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACRS THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
TN/NC BORDER...INSTBY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED...AND OVERALL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
KEEP A LINE OF STORMS RIGHT UP TO THE NC BORDER. SO A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT ALSO PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL
LIKELY STILL BE RELATIVELY CAPPED...SO LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY IS ALMOST NIL BY
06Z SAT AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO ENTER THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO...THE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT
AT THIS POINT. SO AM KEEPING THE 40-60% POP FOR THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE TSTM COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH IN THE MTNS. THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
MTNS MAY GET A HALF INCH OR MORE. TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAA WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE TN LINE TO
BRING TEMPS INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT
5000 FT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHUD DRY OUT...AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
50S IN THE MTNS AND 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING WIND GUST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AS
NWLY CAA FLOW CONTINUES...ESP IN THE MTNS. THIS ON TOP OF LOW RH MAY
ELEVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESP IF THE CURRENT QPF IS OVERDONE.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHUD BE CHILLY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
NC...AND MID-UPR 30S ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. SO EXPECT SOME
FREEZING TEMPS...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND PATCHY FROST AND
PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FROST ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT. A DEEPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THU
AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MON AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. THIS FLOW CONTINUES THRU
TUE KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE VIRGINIAS ON WED...BUT THE MOIST SLY
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWFA...WITH CONTINUED CHC OF CONVECTION. THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWFA ON THU
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A WEAK CAD. PRECIP CHC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE LIFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST SLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS MON RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED...THEN
BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD...AND A NARROW TEMPO TSRA
WINDOW APPEARS PRUDENT STARTING AT 22Z FOR THE LATEST UPDATE. VFR
CIGS IN THE SRLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHRA/TSRA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND WITH
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY IFR
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER 13Z
OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...THE FIRST ROUND OF LATE DAY CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY
MOVED EAST OF THE FOOTHILL TAFS...WITH MAINLY VCSH LINGERING UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR FEATURES A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING
EAST FROM WRN GA AND CROSSING THE SC SITES MID EVENING. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO TSRA 00Z TO 03Z.
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
AND...WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A
COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT
AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT MED 75% MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP MED 68% MED 68% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 87% HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 89% MED 68% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 62% MED 63% MED 76% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...HG/TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT...BUT RETURN FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...INSITU DAMMING HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND TEMPS STAYING LOWER THAN FORECAST
BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS IS PRETTY MUCH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA NOW WITH A CONTINUED DAMPING TREND EXPECTED AS IT
PUSHES EAST. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
STARTED TO CREEP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE PATCHY SUNSHINE AND WITH IT
HAS COME AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SBCAPES...SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING 100-250 J/KG SBCAPE CREEPING INTO THOSE EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH RAP EXTRAPOLATION SHOWING RAPID INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL FINGER OF STABILITY REMAINING
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 22Z...RE-STABILIZING
THEREAFTER. NOT SURE I AM COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THE EXTENT OF
>500J/KG SBCAPE BUT OVERALL TRENDS DO SEEM REASONABLE. ALREADY
SEEING SOME CONVECTION FIRE IN PORTIONS OF GEORGIA SO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING.
SOME CONCERN ABOUT STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30KT /NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT FOR 0-6KM
SHEAR/ WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT THAT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES.
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES SO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND QUITE THE
DIFFERENCE FROM THOSE TODAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OFF AND
ON SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW SO
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH WIND GUST POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON MIXING ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LATE FRIDAY WE START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEXT FRONT THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK INTO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES
LATE IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD. BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE FRONT REMAINS
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE CWFA AROUND 00Z SAT...BUT THE HIGH RES
MODELS AND THE NAM/CMC/GFS ALL HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
TIMING. THE ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM SHUD BE UNSTABLE ENUF WITH PLENTY OF
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACRS THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
TN/NC BORDER...INSTBY WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED...AND OVERALL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
KEEP A LINE OF STORMS RIGHT UP TO THE NC BORDER. SO A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT ALSO PERHAPS LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NC MTNS. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL
LIKELY STILL BE RELATIVELY CAPPED...SO LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE AMOUNT OF INSTBY IS ALMOST NIL BY
06Z SAT AS THE BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO ENTER THE
PIEDMONT. ALSO...THE 1000-850 MB CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT
AT THIS POINT. SO AM KEEPING THE 40-60% POP FOR THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLE TSTM COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS. QPF WILL BE
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...AND A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH IN THE MTNS. THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE SMOKY
MTNS MAY GET A HALF INCH OR MORE. TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT...BUT CAA WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE TN LINE TO
BRING TEMPS INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT
5000 FT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHUD DRY OUT...AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
50S IN THE MTNS AND 60S ACRS THE PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING WIND GUST POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...AS
NWLY CAA FLOW CONTINUES...ESP IN THE MTNS. THIS ON TOP OF LOW RH MAY
ELEVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESP IF THE CURRENT QPF IS OVERDONE.
SATURDAY NIGHT SHUD BE CHILLY...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES SETTLES
INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
NC...AND MID-UPR 30S ACRS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. SO EXPECT SOME
FREEZING TEMPS...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND PATCHY FROST AND
PERHAPS WIDESPREAD FROST ELSEWHERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OR FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT. A DEEPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THU
AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
AT THE SFC...SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MON AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. THIS FLOW CONTINUES THRU
TUE KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE VIRGINIAS ON WED...BUT THE MOIST SLY
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR CWFA...WITH CONTINUED CHC OF CONVECTION. THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CWFA ON THU
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A WEAK CAD. PRECIP CHC WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE LIFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST SLY FLOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS MON RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED...THEN
BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THU.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR PREVAILS AT THE AIRPORT BUT WITH MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ON THE DOORSTEP. MVFR MIGHT BE IN AND OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
DO EXPECT OVERALL MVFR CIGS TO PUSH IN AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT VCSH TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER 00Z AND HAVE BROUGHT IN BRIEF LOW
VFR CIGS AGAIN AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER
13Z OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH LINES AVAILABLE TO DESCRIBE THIS IN THE TAF.
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SIMILAR IN GENERAL TRENDS TO CLT WITH VCSH
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE SC WARRANTS VCTS AT AND AND MIGHT NEED TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR GMU/GSP. UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT AND...WHERE CIGS COULD
DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN
OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 93% MED 71% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 82% MED 74% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 85%
KGMU MED 71% MED 72% HIGH 84% HIGH 91%
KAND MED 76% MED 71% MED 77% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...CLOUDINESS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA AS
ANTICIPATED BUT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN A TAD BELOW FORECAST
TRENDS AS A RESULT...SO HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. BASED ON HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE...
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BUT
AFTERNOON TREND WITH POPS AND CONVECTION LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
GOING FORECAST. RAP CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG SBCAPE INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH WEAK SHEAR PREVIOUS THINKING FOR EVENING CONVECTION
REMAINS. OVERALL ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST.
FOR TODAY...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AND A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO FORCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP THAT WILL
EXPAND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE LIMITED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE
OF THE EXPANDING LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES. THE WILDCARD IN THE
FCST IS THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD INTERSECT AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACRS N/NE GEORGIA AND HELP TO TRIGGER SOME DEEPER CONVECTION...WHICH
THE MODELS CARRY EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND THE SRN PIEDMONT OF
NC INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE FCST TO THE LOWER END
OF THE CHC RANGE OUT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR.
FOR TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL BRING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE S OR SW...AND WILL ALSO PUSH THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AWAY TO THE NE. THAT SHOULD SLOWLY ELIMINATE OUR
PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A LULL BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF LEAVING QUASI ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WAVES
ALOFT...ONE NORTHERN STREAM...AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE
FCST TO PHASE AS THEY ENTER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE UNDERWAY...AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED PHASING HAPPENS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL ADVECT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHERE LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE FAVORS UPWARDS OF
1200-1500J/KG SBCAPE ALONG WITH A 40-50KT LLJ PROVIDING AMPLE
SHEAR. FURTHER EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS...DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS A POCKET
OF RELATIVELY DRIER GULF AIR ADVECTS IN EARLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINMENT. THAT SAID...AS THE LLJ ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE TROF...MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST NEARLY 30KTS
0-3KM BULK SHEAR WITH SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 THROUGH THE
SAME LAYER WHICH COULD SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NC HIGH
COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST GA. ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN EXPECTING AN
EVEN MORE STABLE...LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO BE IN PLACE WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE GENERAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FROPA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING IN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BAND OF
LLV MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND MIDDAY. THUS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...FALLING THICKNESSES COULD YIELD A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL NOT YIELD ANY ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF NORTHWEST WINDS
AID DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY
LIGHT/CALM SURFACE FLOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...THUS WILL MENTION FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS WHILE ALSO ADDING WORDING FOR FROST
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWS FALL TO NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SUNDAY MORNING AMIDST PATCHY/WIDESPREAD FROST AND OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVERHEAD. MODELS FAVOR
SAID HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A DRY...YET
COOL EASTER HOLIDAY IN STORE. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP
OFFSHORE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK YIELDING INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL BROAD WAA REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER HIGHLIGHTED BY POTENTIAL DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH WEAK UPSLOPE INDUCED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODEST AT BEST REGARDING DIURNAL CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE BROAD
UPPER RIDGING WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF BY MIDWEEK EFFECTIVELY HELPING
TO TAMP DOWN CONVECTION. LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
FAVOR POSSIBLE CAD EXTENSION FROM PARENT HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX...ALL
WARRANTING CONTINUED POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF ANY POSSIBLE UPGLIDE
REGIME ESTABLISHMENT ALONG WITH ABOVE MENTIONED DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE AMONGST WAA REGIME LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR PREVAILS AT THE AIRPORT BUT WITH MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ON THE DOORSTEP. MVFR MIGHT BE IN AND OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
DO EXPECT OVERALL MVFR CIGS TO PUSH IN AND REMAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECT VCSH TO DEVELOP JUST AFTER 00Z AND HAVE BROUGHT IN BRIEF LOW
VFR CIGS AGAIN AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION AND
WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO SOLIDLY MVFR AND LIKELY
IFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AROUND 10Z. EXPECT RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER
13Z OR SO TO VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH LINES AVAILABLE TO DESCRIBE THIS IN THE TAF.
ELSEWHERE...OVERALL SIMILAR IN GENERAL TRENDS TO CLT WITH VCSH
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE SC WARRANTS VCTS AT AND AND MIGHT NEED TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR GMU/GSP. UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN OVERNIGHT CIGS ESPECIALLY AT AND...WHERE CIGS COULD
DROP TO LIFR OR REMAIN LOW VFR. TOOK A COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SOLID MVFR DEVELOPING BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. EXPECT FASTER LIFTING/CLEARING AT AVL/HKY FRIDAY MORNING THAN
OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND AT LEAST SHRA IF NOT TSRA ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN TAFS. EVERYTHING SOLIDLY VFR BY 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAINING
THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...UNTIL YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FOR MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 87% HIGH 83% HIGH 96% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 93% MED 71% HIGH 83% HIGH 91%
KAVL HIGH 93% HIGH 82% MED 74% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 93% HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 85%
KGMU MED 71% MED 72% HIGH 84% HIGH 91%
KAND MED 76% MED 71% MED 77% HIGH 96%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG/RWH
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS THAT SPRING IS ON THE WAY...JUST A MONTH LATER THAN
NORMAL. THE UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF SPRING WEATHER
AS STRONG DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEEK. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY...WHEN A COOL FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND GIVES THE BORDERLAND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
WINDY DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WELL BETTER LATE THAN NEVER...OUR MARCH WEATHER HAS BEGUN IN EARLY
APRIL! STRONG ZONAL FLOW IS SET UP WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH. WINDY DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS MODERATE MID LEVEL
WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HRRR SHOWED NICE MESOSCALE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMING LATE THIS MORNING ALONG EASTERN SACS BUT
LATER ABSORBED INTO SYNOPTIC SCALE. THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVER THE SACS...THIS MOVEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH
PROBABLY WILL KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY THERE. NONE THE LESS
WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS ARE PRETTY CLOSE.
WINDS DROPPING OFF FRIDAY AS WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND DISRUPTS LEE SIDE TROUGHING. WIND SHIFT MAY ACTUALLY
MOVE INTO CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT MAIN FRONT WITH COOLING WON`T
MOVE IN TIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL BUT ALSO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS MOVE FRONT OUT
BETWEEN CONT DIVIDE AND ARIZONA BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM 12
SHOWS NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THIS AREA WITH NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. BELIEVE ISOLD MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID DAY. BY MID AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM SILVER CITY TO HACHITA.. AREAS
FURTHER EAST STABILIZED OUT POST FRONTALLY...BUT STORM MOTION MAY
WELL PUSH THE CONVERGENCE LINE STORMS EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING
BACK TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL QUICKLY FLUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS DECENT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS. NEXT
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD PATHCAST FOR THE
STORM BUT TIMING IS A BIT OFF REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA A
LITTLE EARLY. STILL WINDY ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS TIMING WOULD SUGGEST
MISSING OUT ON STRONGER WINDS. FURTHER CARVING SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY BUT STILL
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU PERIOD WITH P6SM FEW-SCT250. STRONG SFC WINDS
STARTING AT 00Z THRU 08Z. WINDS AT KELP WILL MEET AWW CRITERIA FROM
00Z-03Z EXPECT 25023G30KT WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTR 03Z AND DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 12 KTS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM
FOR ALL FIRE ZONES WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS. FRIDAY WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. SATURDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST TRANSPORTING SOME
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SATURDAY MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MID 20S TO UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
IN THE TEENS. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD ON FRIDAY AND POOR ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 57 81 50 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 52 78 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 52 79 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 48 76 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 57 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 40 70 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
DEMING 44 78 44 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 43 79 44 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 79 51 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 49 80 44 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 83 50 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 52 73 43 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
FABENS 53 82 48 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 53 80 47 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 76 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 41 76 40 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
HATCH 46 77 44 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 49 78 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
OROGRANDE 51 77 47 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 41 64 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
MESCALERO 37 65 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 10 10
TIMBERON 40 65 35 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
WINSTON 36 67 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 43 72 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 41 75 40 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 36 69 37 64 33 / 0 0 0 10 20
HURLEY 41 72 41 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 36 76 37 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 32 74 34 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 72 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 45 79 47 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 79 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 80 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 44 76 45 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ414>416.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PAZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
340 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW HAVING TROUBLE STICKING TO THE
ROADS...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE WARM MARCH...THE CURRENT HIGH
SUN ANGLE...AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND FREEZING. DID HAVE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AROUND MIDDAY THAT STRETCHED FROM WHITAKER TO
GUN BARREL...PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT THAT HAS SINCE
WEAKENED. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO LET UP
ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE HRRR DOES SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MAINLY KIMBALL AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES) AND THAT AREA COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR SO THROUGH 03Z.
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S UP
THERE...AND THIS ZONE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON INTERSTATE 80 AFTER SUNSET...EVEN THOUGH THE RATES WILL BE
DECREASING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH PRECIP
LARGELY SHUTTING OFF AFTER 06Z. IT WILL A COLDER NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RATHER QUIET. HEIGHTS RISE
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS OF -10C. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO 2C.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTN. SOUNDINGS AT DGW
SHOW 25-30 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND RH VALUES AROUND
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED OVER
LARAMIE AND PLATTE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES THRU THIS
TIME IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST FETCH ON
SUNDAY LIKELY TURNING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS RESOLVE A
SORT OF SPLIT JET ORIENTATION WHICH WILL KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AS A RESULT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AS SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND H7 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
40KTS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AND QPF
MINIMAL SO KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
OPENS UP TO A TROUGH AND MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. GFS IS
GENERALLY STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN THE TREND FOR INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SFC COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STEADY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SHOWING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 02-03Z THIS EVENING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL. SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COULD BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE
AIRPORTS OF KBFF AND KSNY. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU APR 2 2015
AFTER COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH AND RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS AREA
HAS ALSO RECEIVED VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1123 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST THROUGH THE AFTN. BAND OF PRECIP
IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. SNOW IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE TO PINE BLUFFS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEING REPORTED AT
KIMBALL. WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY
SURFACES BUT NOT ON THE ROADS...EXCEPT FOR THE INTERSTATE 80
SUMMIT WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN ADVISORY IN EFFECT. IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BRIEFLY ON ROADS IN LARAMIE
COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE A
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP TAPERING
OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR
TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TODAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...
HOWEVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL STILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND PVA AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO. THIS IS NOT THE MOST
DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT STRONGER THEN ANYTHING OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION WILL MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR.
MANY COMPETING FACTORS MAKE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST TODAY
MORE DIFFICULT THAT NORMAL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY BE BASED
ON NOT ONLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO CRYSTAL TYPE AND OVERALL
SNOWFALL RATES. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...SUCH AT .1 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH WHEN
OCCURRING WITH AN EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL TEND TO MELT...
ESPECIALLY ON SURFACES SUCH AS ROADS. HOWEVER...WHEN THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SNOW WILL
INTENSITY WITH HIGHER RATES. SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY FOR A
FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA AT WHICH TIME SNOW RATES AROUND .5
INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR SHOULD OVERCOME MELTING. ITS AT THIS TIME
ROADS COULD BECOME SLUSHY TO EVEN SNOW COVERED.
GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SUMMIT...DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 116...EVEN THROUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW AMOUNTS TYPICALLY NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY IN A MOUNTAIN ZONE. THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AS ROADS
SHOULD BECOME SNOW COVERED THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL VERY
ICY...MAKING FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL THROUGH THAT AREA. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAVEL PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY HAVE
SOME BLACK ICE CONCERNS THIS EVENING...FORTUNATELY SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MAJOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUICK MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SNOW ENDING
EARLY EVENING AND LIMITING OVERALL IMPACTS. BELOW 5000
FEET...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL SNOW WILL END WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES
BUT IT WILL BE A BIT WINDY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
A MILD AND WINDY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AT BAY ON SUNDAY WHILE PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXCELLENT LLVL
MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE AS INCREASING GRADIENTS
ALLOW WINDS ALOFT TO INCREASE. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AT LEAST 500 HPA WITH A SOLID CORE OF
40 TO 50 KT FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE SFC ABOVE KRWL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN...HIGH WIND HEADLINES CAN
NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER...AND
GENERALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BOTH TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE STARTING
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CAL ON MON MORNING. THIS ENERGY SHOULD EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MON NIGHT...SO OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO BE GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. COLD FROPA OCCURS ON TUE WITH ECMWF H7 TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -2 DEG C. WHILE MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LLVL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE WITH A DECENT
QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN IS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE WEEK AS A FRAGMENTED WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WE
TRENDED COOLER IN ANTICIPATION OF UPSLOPE-DRIVEN CLOUDS AND PCPN ON
TUE NIGHT-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SHOWING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
ROUGHLY 02-03Z THIS EVENING FOR KCYS...KLAR AND KRWL. SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COULD BE IMPACTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE
AIRPORTS OF KBFF AND KSNY. SNOW THEN EXITS SOUTHEAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015
WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DRY AND COOL FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
SATURDAY WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML