Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 04/01/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE SRN
TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NRLY FLOW WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR...WITH DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 57 71 56 77 / 50 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 41 70 51 75 / 10 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 71 55 76 / 40 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 51 70 52 75 / 40 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 58 70 54 76 / 70 30 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 50 71 54 75 / 40 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 71 50 76 / 10 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 45 69 49 74 / 30 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 53 69 54 75 / 60 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 73 50 76 / 20 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 47 69 48 74 / 30 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 50 69 52 74 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS AOA 15KFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...
THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING.
UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN A QUICKER ENDING
AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS IN FACT BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING...WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY MOVING THROUGH ORANGE COUNTY.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR NE NJ...LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT. HAVE
GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN
THESE LOCATIONS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE LOCATIONS DUE
TO FASTER END TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. FURTHER EAST...RAIN
OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NEVER FULLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM THE CITY
EAST WITH THE QUICKER ENDING...POORLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST-EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S IN THE VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 MOST ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER
20S IN THE VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.
CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.
SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVES TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THEN
DEPARTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
HRRR DOING BEST JOB OF HANDLING PRECIP ORIENTATION/TIMING THIS
EVENING. BACKEDGE OF PRECIP QUICKLY APPROACHING NYC/NJ METRO WITH
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO IFR CONDS IN SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH
01Z...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 02Z. SIMILAR CONDS BETWEEN 00-03Z FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS. THEREAFTER CONDS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN
VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING/MIDNIGHT.
N/NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE NW 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN DEVELOP TO 15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDS.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. WINDS LIKELY BACK FROM RIGHT
OF 31O MAGNETIC WED MORNING...TO LEFT OF THERE AFTER 18Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC ON WEDNESDAY.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC ON WEDNESDAY.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW IMPROVING AFTER 01Z
THIS EVENING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN ALL SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO MARGINAL
LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES
CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THIS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.
THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.
CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.
SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.
PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR. THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.
PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.
THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
846 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
UPSTREAM WHICH IS PROMOTING STEADY CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS
TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE MID-
EVENING UPDATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE METTER AND REIDSVILLE AREAS
SOUTHEAST TO LUDOWICI AND CLAXTON. INSTABILITY OFF THE 01/00Z KCHS
RAOB WAS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE SOUNDING LOOKS TO
HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED BY THE STABILIZING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...01/00Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT METTER AND STATESBORO
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH SBCAPES NEARING 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -7C. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
COLD MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR (DCAPE
OF 600-800 J/KG) WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SO FAR UPSTREAM SEVERE REPORTS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARY LARGE HAIL...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35-40
KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST GA ZONES
BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT...MODERATE SURFACE HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND ONLY WEAK LATE-DAY COLD
AIR ADVECTION. THUS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
SC AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN SOUTHEAST GA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING
STRATOCUMULUS LATE NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERMAL RIDGING/
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF/WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS EAST OF I-95...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
APPEARS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 31/00 UTC GUIDANCE TIMING DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...RANGING FROM A FAST OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH LIMITED CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO A SOMEWHAT SLOWER OPERATIONAL EURO WHICH DEPICTS THE
FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
SUPPORTING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NEEDED
WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IN ANY CASE...POST FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MODEL
AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS
POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. WATCHING UPSTREAM TSTM ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN FOR
KSAV 02-06Z. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. WILL NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF TSRA JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.
WIND SHIFT WILL A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KCHS ROUGHLY
14Z...BUT WASHOUT BEFORE REACHING KSAV AND GETTING ENTANGLED WITH
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD AFFECT
EITHER TERMINAL LATE THURSDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS COULD OCCUR IN NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AS THE FROPA OCCURS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITERIA. HAVE MAINTAINED A CAP OF 15 KT WINDS IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 20 KT WINDS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
IMPACT THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE OUT OF THE NE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WAKE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BUT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BLOW AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST BOTH
DAYS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COLD ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT.
MEANWHILE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS
COULD SUPPORT SOME SEA FOG BEGINNING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 70 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 50 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 70 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 70 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 50 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 60 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
514 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
SENT EARLY AMD TO ORD/MDW TAF DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LAKE ENHANCED NE WIND DEVELOPS AND
LIKELY PUSHES SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST AROUND 10KT FOR A COUPLE HOURS
EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHEN NE WINDS PICK UP TO 10KT EXACTLY AND ON
WIND DIRECTION IN GENERAL OVERNIGHT.
IZZI
UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TUESDAY
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS POTENTIAL TUES MORNING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
134 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
429 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE PATH THE LOW TAKES WILL
DICTATE WIND SPEEDS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST FAVORING A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH PATH SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT. HOWEVER...A FARTHER SOUTH PATH WOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER
WESTERLY WINDS. DUE TO THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTH OF THE LOW...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KT AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH DOWN THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER LOW ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM EARLY 15 TO 20
KT/POSSIBLY 25 KT SPEEDS TO START THE DAY...SO WAVES WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH TIME TO BUILD ON SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE UPPER PLAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A STOUT
INVERSION FORECAST. SO THE CHALLENGE RETURNS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM WILL BE TRANSFERED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR RIGHT NOW IN
THE NORTH HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL GALES WHILE IN THE SOUTH TO 30
KT. THE LOW WILL STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW FAVORED EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL TURN
WINDS WESTERLY AND DIMINISH THEM IN SPEED.
RC/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1247 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
334 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON...TRAILING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO A TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHEAST
IOWA. FROM THERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ITSELF...WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPSIS OF
SURFACE FEATURES WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF CHANGABLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SOME CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVER WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOTH
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ARE WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT MID-UPPER
30S...THUS LATE DAY RISES IN TO THE 40S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. IN ADDITION... NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFTING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS OF A PACIFIC
NATURE HOWEVER...AND MONDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN TODAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. A SHEARED MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LATER MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST FROM WI ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO INDIANA/OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING.
THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBO
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DROP TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE. MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/LOW THEN COMES OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND BECOMING BREEZY...BUT PULLING TEMPS BACK UP ACROSS
THE CWA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST 70 MAY NOT BE OUT OF
REACH ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE 60S ARE LIKELY TO THE
EAST. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE COOLING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALONG THE LAKE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES AND
PASSES. THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE. MID 60S
APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
334 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THOUGH PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SETS UP COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES... WITH RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP CHANCES. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TO
BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO
NORTHERN IL AND NW IN BUT SHOULD SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VFR CLOUDS BY MID DAY. CURRENTLY
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY AND GUST INTO THE MID-
HIGH TEENS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE
IS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER AND MAY DIMINISH ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE IL
SHORE...LIKELY WELL EAST OF ORD AND MDW. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP WITH THE CLIPPER NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...SO HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A BRIEF BUT SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LLWS TONIGHT.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND SHIFT TO NE WINDS PROBABLY 10KT OR GREATER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS DURING AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA. PERIODIC IFR
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...PROBABLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
259 PM CDT
OBS ARE NOT SUPPORTING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE SO WILL DROP THE STORM FORCE WARNING WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
GUIDANCE ALSO HOLDS ON TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING SO EXTENDED THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT NSH GALE WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT/00Z. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED THROUGH 09Z/4AM CDT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE
UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST AND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE SCOOTS BY. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BOTH 10-20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLIDES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW THAT PASSES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.
Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.
Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.
Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.
After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1059 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...ONLY THE LATEST HI RES RAP WAS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING
THE RATE OF FALL...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE OTHER
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE FORECAST.
IN-COMING HIGH THIN CLOUDS IN THE NW FLOW OUT OF THE PLAINS AND A
WEAK SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL TOWARD SUNRISE. AHEAD OF
THIS...WILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND HAVE THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER MINS TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SW SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID 40S. SOME VALLEY SITES IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.
PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.
THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
Overall, the current forecast remains on track. Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight. Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs. This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours. Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period. Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.
Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.
Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.
Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa. While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.
A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night. The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night. Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability. The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available. Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive. Just something interesting to watch.
The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015
Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED.
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AND
EXTENDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KMLU. MORE EXTENSIVE TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MS
RIVER...COULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
30/18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVER NE TX. INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS FROM WEST..MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FOG...TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 31/06Z
TONIGHT./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 77 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 76 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 76 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 76 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 76 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 76 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 78 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
522 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KMLU. MORE EXTENSIVE TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MS
RIVER...COULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
30/18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVER NE TX. INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS FROM WEST..MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FOG...TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 31/06Z
TONIGHT./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 78 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 77 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 77 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 77 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 80 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 80 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 84 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT ALONG I-30.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN TOWARD I-20 OVERNIGHT AND STALL
WITH VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S
RESPECTIVELY THIS CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU.
ALOFT...WE ARE SW 10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO
50KTS ABOVE FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO
CHANGE THIS WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 78 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 77 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 77 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 77 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 80 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 80 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 84 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
934 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.
A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.
CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT MAINLY OVER NRN PORTIONS. SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AT SBY. THE SKY CLEARS QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. WILL END THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. KIWD HAS ALREADY
IMPROVED TO VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KSAW...CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING TAKES HOLD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. KCMX REMAINS THE
CHALLENGE AS ANY TIME WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE...
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR SHIFT TO THE EAST. CEILINGS TO
STAY LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THREE SITES LATE IN
THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN
LATER TODAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN TO IWD THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON TUE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RA/SN MIX TO IWD
FOR TUE MORNING AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW INTO CMX AND SAW TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND SAW WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD
THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS
COULD ALSO FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.
KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ064-073-074-082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ064-073-074-082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.
A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 33 52 33 / 70 70 10 0
INL 48 32 51 32 / 60 70 10 10
BRD 59 34 59 41 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 53 31 55 32 / 50 60 0 0
ASX 51 30 50 31 / 70 70 20 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.
THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 51 36 61 / 50 10 0 30
INL 28 49 33 63 / 50 10 10 20
BRD 35 58 42 68 / 10 0 0 10
HYR 29 54 33 65 / 30 0 0 40
ASX 28 47 33 61 / 40 10 0 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
812 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LEWISTOWN AND LIVINGSTON LAST HOUR.
CURRENT TIMING SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 9 PM. DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED POP POTENTIAL WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY CERTAINLY PRESENT AS
EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HRRR
MAINTAINS SOME WEAK CAPE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE TAPPED INTO AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AND
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER AS IS.
COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH
AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE. EVERYTHING LOOKS IN GOOD ENOUGH SHAPE. NO
CHANGES. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
AREAS OF FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD HAVE KEPT OUR TEMPS AND MIXED
WINDS A BIT IN CHECK SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS OF 2 PM
TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS MTN WAVE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS IN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD HINDER OUR
PREFRONTAL TSTM POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT WILL SUSTAIN ISOLD WORDING
INTO THE EVENING AS THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE BEEN HINTING AT. LOOKING
WEST...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE EAST OF MISSOULA WITH
PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 1MB/HR NOTED FROM SALMON TO BUTTE AND
HELENA. SOME WEAK CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. TIMING DEPICTED BY
MODELS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH PRESSURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY THE CONVECTION. H3 JET IS PARALLEL
TO FRONT IN CENTRAL MT WITH PRESSURE FALLS AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...AND IN FACT PRESSURE RISES ARE ALL THE WAY BACK IN
OREGON NOW...SO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE.
EXPECT A FRONT TO LIVINGSTON BY AROUND 02Z...BILLINGS 04Z AND
MILES CITY/SHERIDAN 06Z. W-NW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
AND FOLLOW THIS FROPA. COULD SEE A LITTLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER OUR WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
SECONDARY PV MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
WILL SEE A LITTLE SNOWFALL AS 700MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -12C BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. LIVINGSTON MAY ALSO WET BULB DOWN TO A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT.
AS FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
W-NW WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH. WE WILL BE
VERY WELL-MIXED ON WEDNESDAY AND PER VERY DRY MID LEVELS EXPECT
SFC DEWPTS TO REALLY CRASH...PROBABLY SINGLE DIGITS FROM BILLINGS
WEST...RESULTING IN TEENS FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DESPITE THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND RHS WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER TROF SLIDES TO OUR
EAST. SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ACTUALLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS IN OUR EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFTED INDICES
NEAR ZERO EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS. THIS ALONG WITH CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM BILLINGS WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MTNS
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
ON THURSDAY AS WE CONTINUE TO WEAKLY COLD ADVECT AS THE FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS MANY AREAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE OVER E MT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT
AREA ON FRI. FRI WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S UNDER A COOLER
AIRMASS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON SAT ALLOWING PACIFIC ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. MODEL COMPROMISE GAVE HIGHS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SW FLOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SAT NIGHT
AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SAT THROUGH SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...MODELS AGREED ON AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS HAD DRY-SLOTTING PUSHING UP INTO
THE AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE IN WY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE DRY
SLOT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE POPS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH.
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. HAD HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MON AND TUE. TUE LOOKS A
LITTLE WARMER THAN MON DUE TO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS KBIL AROUND 04Z...KMLS AROUND 06Z AND
KSHR AROUND 05Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30S AND
40S FROM THE NW ON WED. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KLVM...AND OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ON WED.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ARTHUR/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/056 033/049 031/056 033/059 034/056 035/055 033/056
31/N 13/W 31/B 01/B 22/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 035/050 027/047 025/053 031/054 028/052 030/050 028/052
54/W 24/W 31/B 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 040/058 030/050 028/058 030/062 033/059 034/058 031/059
31/N 12/W 21/B 01/B 21/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 041/058 031/049 028/055 030/060 032/058 033/055 031/055
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
4BQ 041/057 031/048 025/054 028/061 031/058 032/057 031/057
21/N 02/W 11/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
BHK 039/056 029/045 024/052 026/058 028/054 028/049 028/050
21/N 02/W 12/W 01/B 11/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 037/054 028/047 025/052 026/059 029/057 032/055 030/055
22/W 13/W 21/B 01/B 12/W 22/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO INCREASED THE
WINDS JUST A BIT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. MAX TEMPS LEFT
ALONE FOR THE MOST PART FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CURRENTLY. ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND LEADING EDGE
OF SFC PRESSURE RISES SHOWS A STEADY SEWD PROGRESSION. VTN HAS
GUSTED TO 30KTS AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE THE HIGHER EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING KVTN. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BE GUSTY...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FURTHER N. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A QUICK DECOUPLING NEAR SUNSET AND HAVE TRENDED
WIND FCST IN THAT MANNER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO INCREASED THE
WINDS JUST A BIT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. MAX TEMPS LEFT
ALONE FOR THE MOST PART FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING MONDAY
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPG 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNDOWN MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
823 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PASSING TO OUT SOUTH THIS EVE...IT
SEEMS RATHER IMPROBABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTNEING OF THE COLUMN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR FRONTAL LIFT MOVING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY TO PERHAPS BROKEN CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE PERSISTENT WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES REDEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED MORNING.
THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S...FROM N TO
S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC/VA WILL BEGIN ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OFFSHORE. WITH A FAIRLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT NEARLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S
INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY...CONTINUING WELL INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND
60 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WE START THE PERIOD FRIDAY STILL IN A
BERMUDA HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AND NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE DECIDEDLY
ON HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IMPINGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY
RAPID DRYING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF NOT MIDDAY. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO WRING OUT
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS SOUTH OF KFLO/KMYR TERMINALS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE
N-NE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE
SHOWERS/MVFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SW TO W WINDS TO INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO NW AND N WITH THE
APPROACH OF DAYBREAK. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVE
THROUGH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT
WITH 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. WE ARE FORECASTING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS AND SO NO MARINE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND A RECENTLY
PASSED COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...VEERING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...AND EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR SEAS...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3 TO 4
FT BOTH WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND WEST
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP THE
GRADIENT. SATURDAY`S EARLY FROPA WILL BRING ABRUPT VEERING TO
NORTHERLY WHILE THE EASING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
ALLOW FOR SMALLER SEAS EVEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN SOME. WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL GROW MUCH LIGHTER AND
CONTINUE TO VEER IN DIRECTION ALL DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN
SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM CWA AND COASTAL WATERS
COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING TREND THRUOUT THIS
PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECT TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE AT THERE MAXIMUM AT THIS MOMENT WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
4 TO 6 FEET. AS WITH WIND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SEAS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT NEAR THE TWO CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT.
TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN CLUSTER MAY MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER WILL AFFECT LAWTON AND
PERHAPS WICHITA FALLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL...THINK
THE CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THINK A HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY HAIL SMALLER THAN GOLF BALLS AND MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND AROUND 60 MPH.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
AVIATION...
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT KPNC THROUGH
06Z. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN
SITE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 30 MINUTES...COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. KEPT TEMPO/VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES.
OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 06-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.
THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 83 62 81 / 50 10 10 10
HOBART OK 59 85 57 81 / 50 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 82 62 90 / 60 10 10 10
GAGE OK 54 89 50 74 / 10 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 58 83 60 76 / 20 10 20 20
DURANT OK 62 79 62 85 / 40 30 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT KPNC THROUGH
06Z. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN
SITE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 30 MINUTES...COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. KEPT TEMPO/VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES.
OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 06-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.
THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
724 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW.
MOST OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
IT WAS WINDY EARLIER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA. SIMILAR TO LAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS
CASE...A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA HAD SOME SNOW.
LOOKING COLD BUT DRY ON WED.
A WARMING TREND AFTER THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MOST OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
09Z TAFS SENT.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
IT WAS WINDY EARLIER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA. SIMILAR TO LAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS
CASE...A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA HAD SOME SNOW.
LOOKING COLD BUT DRY ON WED.
A WARMING TREND AFTER THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
GUSTY WINDS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...GIVEN VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS FOR EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING.
MUCH OF THE SNOW NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE RADAR RETURNS MOVING FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS BELOW
VFR...AND REALLY ANY REPORTS OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE. SIGNIFICANT T/TD DEPRESSIONS NEED TO BE OVERCOME.
APPARENTLY ANY SNOW ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL ACTIVITY...BUT WITH AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FROPA LATER
TONIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY SLOWED THE ONSET OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TAFS...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO SLOW THEM AGAIN IN THE NEXT
UPDATED.
THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPEARS ONLY ROBUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS AT KJST AND KBFD IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER EAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE MOST PART TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW EARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR CENTRAL AND SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLUSTERY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN WEST NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...JH/CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
542 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WINDS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. DEEP MIXING
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 15Z-16Z...WITH GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 25KT LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH/CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
937 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LESSENS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. DID EXTEND POP CHANCES A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC AS LATEST HRRR SHOWS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ROLLS THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO REDUCE SOME
AREAS FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND FOR THE POP
ADJUSTMENT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. BIGGEST TWEAK TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY
TEMPS WHICH WERE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN FORECAST
GRIDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOKED GOOD THOUGH. WILL SEND OUT
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MINOR CHANGES IN SKY AND POP
GRIDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 51 75 52 74 / 30 0 30 50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 71 48 72 / 10 0 20 40
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 71 48 72 / 10 0 20 40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 68 40 73 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT WORDING IN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING RANDOLPH COUNTY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. NO CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING
BETWEEN JONESBORO AND MEMPHIS BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WHILE
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EVOLUTION OF STORMS
FORM A LINE BY 2 AM IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA BY 5 AM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
..BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KMEM AND KMKL BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z OR
SO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT 5 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KMEM AND MKL AROUND 30/06Z. AT KJBR...THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/10Z AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KTUP. KTUP SHOULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 30/09Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHERLY AT 6 KTS OR LESS. ALL RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE AT
ALL SITES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH SUNRISE.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT 5
KTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
951 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.
OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
/00Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE BIG COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING...AS A COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER FURTHER INTENSIFIES A STRONG CAP. ONGOING ACTIVITY
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS MORE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH A STEADILY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.
REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF METROPLEX TAF
SITES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER ORDINARY LLJ TONIGHT...BUT IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
STRONGER MOIST FETCH MAY ENSUE. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...ENHANCING THE CHANCES THAT AN MVFR DECK
IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL
BE THE LAST TO SCATTER WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY
SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.
AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AND
DISCUSS POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
WACO, TX 65 78 64 86 66 / 20 30 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 62 79 63 79 65 / 30 30 40 10 20
DENTON, TX 64 81 64 88 64 / 20 30 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 63 81 64 83 65 / 20 30 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 66 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 81 64 83 66 / 10 30 40 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 64 80 64 82 66 / 10 40 40 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 64 78 64 85 66 / 20 40 30 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 84 63 93 63 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.
SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.
WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
901 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: The cold front responsible for the windy conditions over
much of Central and Eastern Washington today has shifted east of
the area with cooler and drier air moving in behind the front. Dew
points have fallen into the upper teens and 20s in many areas due
to the drier air. Radar this evening showed a few areas of showers
that linger. A cold pool aloft with 500mb temps down to -33C
combined with low level upslope flow is resulting in showers
across southeast Washington extending into the Central Panhandle
Mountains mainly over the high terrain. Showers also linger near
the Cascade crest with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone resulting in
a band of moderate snow between Stevens Pass and Snoqualmie Pass.
Radar trends as well as the HRRR suggest the heaviest snow tonight
should stay south of Stevens Pass although some travel impacts are
still possible between Stevens Pass and Leavenworth. Outside of
these areas most of the Inland Northwest is expected to remain dry
tonight. Pressure gradients will also be decreasing tonight which
combined with less mixing potential with the loss of daytime
heating will lead to decreasing winds through the night. However
very few changes were made to the forecast tonight. Main update
was to make slight changes to winds this evening based on latest
observations. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will promote scattered showers
and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly this evening and
again Wednesday aft/eve during peak daytime heating. Convection this
evening are expected to be confined mainly in the mountains due to
strong downslope flow off the Cascades. The best chance for an
isolated thunderstorm will be near the Canadian Border around
Metaline Falls and Bonners Ferry. Windy conditions will subside
this evening around 02-04z as pressure gradients decrease and
mixing potential decreases. Several type of precipitation are
possible with these showers this evening as well as Wednesday
afternoon...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 51 29 52 31 54 / 10 50 20 20 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 31 51 28 50 30 54 / 10 60 30 30 30 20
Pullman 34 49 30 49 32 54 / 20 40 30 20 10 10
Lewiston 37 55 33 54 34 59 / 30 40 20 20 10 10
Colville 33 55 29 55 31 55 / 10 40 20 20 10 30
Sandpoint 31 51 27 50 28 52 / 20 60 20 40 30 40
Kellogg 31 45 29 45 31 50 / 20 60 50 50 30 20
Moses Lake 37 60 30 59 31 59 / 10 20 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 38 58 34 59 37 58 / 10 20 0 10 10 20
Omak 32 57 30 59 32 58 / 10 30 10 10 10 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
855 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BELOW THE CASCADE
PASSES MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...QUITE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY FOR OUR AREA. NOTHING SEVERE
BUT LOTS OF REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL...AND DOWNPOURS CAUSING SOME
PONDING OF WATER. DIURNAL AFFECTS AND DEPARTURE OF VORT MAX EARLY
THIS EVENING HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE SHOW ANOTHER SHOWERS AREA APPROACHING THE
COAST THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IN TO
WED AM. THIS FEATURE IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE NW AND WILL LIKELY ASSIST IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET AND ODOT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME SNOW COVERED ROADS AT PASS LEVELS. NW AVALANCHE CENTER
SNOW REPORTS AT MT. HOOD MEADOWS AT 5400 FEET HAD A FEW INCHES OF WET
SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT A GOOD GAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...PROBABLY AROUND A HALF A FOOT INCREASE AT THAT SITE.THERE
WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT AGAIN MAY HAVE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED AFTERNOON. /MH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL WERE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FIRST COOL UPPER TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVED ACROSS.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURE OFF THE OREGON
COAST NEARING 130W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT WAS OCCURRING WITH TODAYS
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW TONIGHT AND WED
WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW...SO SNOWFALL RATES IN THE CASCADES ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN. MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER CONTINUED TO INDICATE AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED LATE WED
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR ALOFT FROM TODAY. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES...ONSHORE FLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WED. WILL ALSO RETAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE TIME OF MAX INSTABILITY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP DOWN WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THU. A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES INLAND OVER CENTRAL OR NW OREGON KEEPING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THU DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGING...MAINLY OVER THE NW PART OF
THE AREA.
12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS...ESP THE GFS AND ECMWF...HAVE TAKEN A
DECIDEDLY FASTER TRACK WITH THE FRONT ON FRI. GIVEN THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...INCLUDING THE GEM AND NAM...WILL SPEED UP THE
INLAND SPREAD OF POPS FRI AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES...AND DOWN TO THE
FOOTHILLS WITH SNOW LEVELS DECREASING TO AROUND 2500 FEET. MODEL
AGREEMENT SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER TODAY WITH THE POSITION OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
INCREASINGLY COMMON IN THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME
SHADOWING IN THE VALLEY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS MOST OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OVER THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS DUE TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WITH AREAL PLACEMENT REMAINS TO LOW TO
INCLUDE TS AND GS IN THE TAFS. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF REDUCED
FLIGHT RULES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF REDUCED FLIGHT RULES ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS. /64
&&
.MARINE...UPDATE...WITH SEAS CURRENTLY HOVERING BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FT
AND FORECASTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THURSDAY...DECIDED TO DROP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS A FEW HOURS EARLY. /64
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR
A BRIEF BREAK ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FRIDAY AS A DECAYING
FRONT CROSSES. MAY ALSO SEE SEAS NUDGE UPWARDS OF 13 FT AT THAT
TIME AS WELL. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM
TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 PM
TO 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
446 PM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and ocassionally showery spring-like weather pattern
will continue through the week and into the weekend. Widespread
freezing temperatures are possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Then anticipate more seasonal temperatures by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow: A cool spring-like upper-level trof will
continue to slide into the region this evening and remain in
place through tomorrow. 500mb temperatures within the core of the
trof are on the order of -30C or cooler which is leading to
steepening lapse rates and potential for showers. Winds this
afternoon are helping to bring drier air in the lee of the
Cascades and Basin which will keep a bulk of the shower activity
focusing on the mountains and adjoining outer reaches of the
Basin. So far there has not been a lightning strike in WA/ID (just
across the border in BC) but convection continues to increase and
a few strikes are a strong possibility with the best chances in
the northern and eastern mountains. A Puget Sound Convergence Zone
has become established and per the HRRR, should continue through
much of this evening into tonight. Depending on where this narrow
bands swings north and south, it looks promising for some snow
accumulations to impact Stevens Pass and possible east into
locations like Plain, Coles Corner, and perhaps Leavenworth.
Another feature we are closely monitoring is a second midlevel
circulation or vort max near 130W. Earlier model runs brought this
feature near the WA/OR border then through the Blues...Palouse
/L-C Valley...and into the Central Panhandle...but satellite
trends and latest RUC suggest this feature will take a southward
track through Oregon.
Temperatures will be cool overnight with several locations within
the northern valleys dipping below the freezing mark. This includes
locations like Winthrop, Omak, Republic, Deer Park, Ione, and
Priest Lake. Communities along and north of I-90 within the Idaho
Panhandle could also be close to freezing for a short period of
time Wednesday morning but confidence is lower with the potential
for cloud cover.
Following a few hours of warming Wednesday, look for widely scattered
showers to blossom across a majority of the region. The highest
concentration of activity will focus along and east of a line from
Republic to Pullman but any number of midlevel disturbances coming
across the Cascades could lead to clusters of activity. The
atmosphere will be cooler compared to Tuesday and most shower
activity will fall as a combination of rain and snow pellets. This
lowers the threat for thunder as the thermal characteristics
within the cloud will not be as favorable for charge separation.
There is a small chance for lightning but should be less than
Tuesday...which has yet to materialize. Winds will become low-end
breezy Wednesday but several magnitudes lower than Tuesday. High
temperatures will only warm into the 50s...coming in near to just
shy of typical values for April 1st. /sb
Wednesday night through Friday night...A typical active spring
weather pattern will continue for the rest of the work week.
Latest models are in decent agreement in depicting the slow exit
of the current upper level trough through Thursday before a short
wave ridge builds in for an ill defined/less showery break period
Thursday night and Friday followed by the arrival of the next cold
front Friday night.
Thursday will feature slightly cooler than normal high and low
temperatures...probable sunbreaks over much of the area but also
a continuing chance of scattered hit-and-miss showers east of a
line from Omak to Walla Walla with a stray short lived garden
variety spring thunderstorm thrown into the mix in the northeast
mountains and Idaho Panhandle.
The main threat during this period will be the possibility of
freezing temperatures Thursday morning and again on Friday morning
over most of the region. The lowest elevation locations of
Wenatchee...Moses lake and the L-C valley will also be at risk for
freezing and ordinarily this early in the year freezes are not
uncommon...however the unusual warmth of the past month has
stimulated some anomalously early budding and blooming in some of
these areas. As the forecast for Thursday morning`s low
temperatures is refined on subsequent shifts an early season
Freeze Warning may be necessary for these low elevation
locations.
Friday will feature the approach of the next trough and while the
cold front will hold off until Friday evening...a weak mid level
warm front is suggested by the models setting up over the
northeastern zones and panhandle during the day Friday. Not much
actual precipitation is expected but mid level and high clouds
will increase during the day with mid-range chances of light rain
mainly over the north. The actual cold front will pass through
Friday night with a better chance of valley rain and mountain
snow...with breezier conditions behind the front promoting warmer
overnight lows by dawn Saturday. /Fugazzi
Saturday through Tuesday: An upper level trough will be main
weather feature for the weekend and into early next week. Both
the GFS and ECWMF are very similar on handling this feature as it
sinks south from the Gulf of AK south to the Washington coast
Saturday and Sunday, and then weakens and opens up as it swings
inland for Monday. Broad troughiness lingers into Tuesday. This
will keep temperatures near seasonal normals and showery
conditions through this period. Made some slight chances to the
sensible weather of the forecast. The progress of the upper level
low seems slower than seen yesterday, which would yield to a
slower evolution of the shower development and a slower cool down
of the temperatures. Most showers will be diurnally driven,
peaking in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. As the low
digs south, the main brunt of the shower activity shifts south for
Sunday, highlighting the southern Cascades and the Blue mountains.
Then Monday and into Tuesday, the convection returns to the
diurnal trends concentrating in the mountains. Snow levels will
waffle from the valley floors at night and into the mountains
during the day, so precipitation will switch to snow at night with
minor accumulations possible, to a rain/snow/graupel mix during
the afternoon hours. What this equates to is typically spring like
weather for the Inland Northwest. /rfox.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold upper level trof will promote scattered showers
and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly this evening and
again Wednesday aft/eve during peak daytime heating. Convection this
evening are expected to be confined mainly in the mountains due to
strong downslope flow off the Cascades. The best chance for an
isolated thunderstorm will be near the Canadian Border around
Metaline Falls and Bonners Ferry. Windy conditions will subside
this evening around 02-04z as pressure gradients decrease and
mixing potential decreases. Several type of precipitation are
possible with these showers this evening as well as Wednesday
afternoon...including rain...snow...small hail...and graupel. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 51 29 52 31 54 / 10 50 20 20 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 31 51 28 50 30 54 / 10 60 30 30 30 20
Pullman 34 49 30 49 32 54 / 20 40 30 20 10 10
Lewiston 37 55 33 54 34 59 / 30 40 20 20 10 10
Colville 33 55 29 55 31 55 / 30 40 20 20 10 30
Sandpoint 31 51 27 50 28 52 / 30 60 20 40 30 40
Kellogg 31 45 29 45 31 50 / 30 60 50 50 30 20
Moses Lake 37 60 30 59 31 59 / 10 20 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 38 58 34 59 37 58 / 20 20 0 10 10 20
Omak 32 57 30 59 32 58 / 10 30 10 10 10 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 79 53 72 60 / 10 20 50 40
ATLANTA 77 57 72 60 / 20 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 73 49 62 56 / 10 20 70 40
CARTERSVILLE 78 56 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 80 57 80 58 / 50 20 40 20
GAINESVILLE 76 53 67 58 / 10 20 50 40
MACON 81 54 77 59 / 40 20 40 20
ROME 78 54 74 59 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 79 53 75 58 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 80 58 79 61 / 50 20 30 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS...ONLY THE LATEST HI RES RAP WAS COMING CLOSE TO CAPTURING
THE RATE OF FALL...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE OTHER
SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE FORECAST.
IN-COMING HIGH THIN CLOUDS IN THE NW FLOW OUT OF THE PLAINS AND A
WEAK SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF THE PLAINS
TROUGH SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL TOWARD SUNRISE. AHEAD OF
THIS...WILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND HAVE THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER MINS TO THE LOWER 30S
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SW SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED TO THE
MID 40S. SOME VALLEY SITES IN THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.
PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.
THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS OR STRONGER BY
LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
EARLIEST...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE BRL...CID AND DBQ TERMINALS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD AFTER
THE 06Z TAF ENDING PERIOD AND THUS NOT INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20
KTS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
APPEARS THE RAP IS BEST HANDLING ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AS IT IS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVE WITH EVEN SOME
LTG STRIKES SINCE 00Z. MEANWHILE...CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPRCHG
THE LWR CHES BAY NEAR WINDMILL PT. HAVE BUMBED UP POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING WEST OF THE BAY WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
CONTG ALONG THE ERN SHORE. ADDED SLGHT CHC THUNDER TO SRN VA CNTYS
AS WELL. ADDED A FEW HOURS OF POPS TO THE ENR SHORE THRU 06Z WHERE
SHWRS PROGGED TO LINGER. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NNW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW OVR THE MARINE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE PSBL
ONCE THIS OCCURS.
A GUST TO 48KTS AT 827 PM RESULTED IN A MINI "HEAT BURST" AT RIC
AS THE TMP JUMPED FROM 73 TO 79 DEGREES.
CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE
AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND
THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED
BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY
-RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND
INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN
A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA
AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE
COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST
SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI
EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS
ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE
RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND
AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN
CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE
SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO
REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS
MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE
AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS
TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC
(2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY
EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S
LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO
SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES
CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3
FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL
MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT
SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT
WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT.
SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW
FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT
FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES BTWN A TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND A
RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES HAS SUPPORTED PCPN MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY HAVE RANGED FM THE 30S NORTH AND FAR EAST TO
GENERALLY THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS THE SHRTWV DEPARTS TO THE SE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME OF
MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE COULD LINGER NCNTRL AND EAST AND FOR
THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE NE-E FLOW. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST
PLACES.
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER THE PAC NW BEGINS TO DRIVE
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LVL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WL SPREAD INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS AND MODEL SNDGS
SUGGEST BEST CHC OF PCPN WL BE OVER THE NRN TIER IN THE MORNING AND
ERN PORTION OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHC POPS
OVER THESE COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY PCPN THERE UNTIL LATE IN
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TROF APPROACHES FM WEST. SOME ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 250-500 J/KG COULD MAYBE EVEN RESULT IN SOME
ISOLD TS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING SO WL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC
FOR THUNDER FOR FAR WEST.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S EAST HALF AND OVER THE KEWEENAW TO THE UPPER 50S FOR DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR FAR WEST. SSE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
OVER 30 MPH FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR OVER
THE WEST HALF AND OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BROAD
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(THROUGH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BELOW 700MB) AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BUT IT WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE BACK IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A TROUGH STRETCHES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THEN SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH IOWA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THAT WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...SINCE IT WILL
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN A WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW CHANCE POPS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES OVER THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WITH THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THAT AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...AS
THAT AREA WOULD HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION TIED TO THE DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BEFORE QUICKLY
ENDING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUDS AND A WARM DAY ACROSS THE U.P.
UNDER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY AND
THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S FOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES (LOW TO THE
NORTH...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR).
HOPEFULLY...ANY OPEN DEBRIS BURNING WILL BE LIMITED AND CAREFULLY
TENDED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FIRE
SPREADING (ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL THE NIGHT BEFORE IS LIMITED).
THE WARM AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
STEADILY DROP TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY ONLY A LIMITED WARM UP INTO THE 30S DURING THE
DAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
BELOW 800MB FOR CLOUDS AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVER THE LAKE
INSTABILITY (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -11C) TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS OR
EVEN SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DELTA-T VALUES ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE...WON/T GO MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND UPSLOPE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVING AHEAD OF A HIGH IN CENTRAL
CANADA.
THAT DRY AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRINGS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT
WAVE...INDICATIONS ARE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS THE
HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WISCONSIN
BORDER IS BRUSHED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE REGION STILL
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION TO THE TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK (BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL)
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN ON MONDAY...AS THE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE PLACING THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24HRS AGO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE OVER KCMX THIS AM
AS EASTERLY FLOW COTNINUES. CONDITIONS THERE WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS WINDS SHIFT SE AND INCREASE. KSAW ALSO REMAINS ON
THE LOW END OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES. KSAW MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
TEMPORAILY DROP VISBYS THERE TO IFR...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
STAY VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. KIWD TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS TO PICK UP AND ALL AREAS TO GO
VFR AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIS OUT. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES
LATER IN THE DAY ALL SITES WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSOTRMS IN THE KIWD AREA...BUT AS THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTION OYUT OF THE
TAF FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ244-245.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR LSZ264-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
319 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ORIGINATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THIS REGION. LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE
ONGOING LINE COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
DECREASING WITH TIME. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER MCS IS OCCURRING
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE
RADAR PRESENTATION AND TRENDS...LIKELY THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THINKING THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STORMS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM TULSA TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY GET CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.
THIS BRINGS US TO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF
AN INCREASING CAP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LATER. BOTH
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. TORNADOES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY LOW...BUT THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER IN WHATEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 80 56 / 30 10 30 70
FSM 79 63 80 64 / 40 30 20 40
MLC 81 65 83 61 / 30 20 20 30
BVO 82 62 78 48 / 20 20 30 70
FYV 76 62 74 59 / 40 20 30 60
BYV 76 61 75 60 / 40 20 30 70
MKO 79 63 80 59 / 30 10 20 50
MIO 80 63 75 53 / 30 20 30 70
F10 79 64 81 59 / 30 10 20 50
HHW 79 64 81 64 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BECAME ORGANIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA...TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT COMPARED TO LARGE HAIL. THINK STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...HOWEVER A FEW MORE SEVERE REPORTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 07Z.
OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 09-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS DECREASING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
ALL SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT ALL SITES 14-18Z...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT NEAR THE TWO CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS.
DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT.
TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN CLUSTER MAY MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER WILL AFFECT LAWTON AND
PERHAPS WICHITA FALLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL...THINK
THE CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THINK A HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY HAIL SMALLER THAN GOLF BALLS AND MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND AROUND 60 MPH.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.
THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 71 79 71 / 20 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 81 70 81 71 / 20 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 83 70 83 71 / 20 10 0 0
MCALLEN 85 71 87 71 / 20 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 90 70 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 69 75 70 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BIRCHFIELD-65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...NOCTURNAL STRATUS.
STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...AIDED
BY A TRANSITING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE ACTIVITY SKIRTING THE
RED RIVER WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND NON-SEVERE...AND WILL
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE NORTH DEPARTURE CORRIDOR BY MORNING
OPERATIONS.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING A LLJ WEAKER THAN THE FWS VWP OUTPUT
OF 40-45KTS AT 2KFT AGL AND UP. THE OKLAHOMA STORMS SHOULD SUSTAIN
A POTENT LLJ DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HELPING TO PULL MVFR
STRATUS INTO ALL TAF SITES BEFORE DAWN. THERE SHOULD BE LESS OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN TUESDAY MORNING...ENHANCING THE CHANCES
THAT THIS DECK IS ABLE TO BLANKET THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS.
STILL EXPECT DALLAS/ARLINGTON/WACO WILL BE THE LAST TO SCATTER
WEDNESDAY...IN FACT...THESE SITES MAY SIMPLY TRANSITION FROM
MORNING STRATUS TO A BROKEN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK.
AN IMPULSE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CHIHUAHUA AND THE TRANS-PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO SPREAD
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR WACO...APPEARS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EARLIER
IN THE DAY...PRIMARILY SHOWERS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
STILL TOO LOW FOR CATEGORICAL MENTION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LATE
AFTERNOON WINDOW OF VCTS FOR METROPLEX SITES.
STRATUS WILL RETURN EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED THIS
INTO ALL TAFS.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO TRIM POPS TO ONLY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 380
BETWEEN JACKSBORO AND SULPHUR SPRINGS...AS THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER /A SCIENTIFIC NAME FOR THE CAP/ APPEARS STRONGER WITH MUCH
DRIER LOWER LEVELS AT FWD COMPARED TO OUN/S SOUNDING AT 00Z.
STORMS THAT WERE OUT BY ABILENE ARE A TRUE INDICATOR TO THIS VERY
ITEM...THOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS
HIGH WITH LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 DEG C/KM EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AND STABILIZE WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ELEVATED IN NATURE BY THE TIME THEY REACH
OUR COUNTIES. I HELD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE TAIL-END
OF A POSSIBLE MCS THE HRRR AND SREF HAVE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ALL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LONG WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND EXTENT...
BUT WITH NIGHTFALL UPON US THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE ON IT...OUTSIDE OF THE 18Z TTU WRF WHICH ALREADY HAD
STORMS FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN BY NOW. I IMAGINE THE 00Z VERSION
SHOULD BE BETTER.
OTHERWISE...I DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THOSE PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG/WEST OF
I-35 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THOSE
AREAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER CHANCES WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS/EASTERN OK IN THIS
FLOW WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE...AN INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS SE OK WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT GENERATED BY
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAP CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FEW CELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN
THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST
OK IN THE 5 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER
COUNTIES...TIMING WOULD BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-
RES MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AS STORMS PROPAGATE INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR
REGION. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WOULD TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS APPROACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG I-20
AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/
TRAVERSES THE STATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLY FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PARTICULAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINALIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER....THOUGH A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CONJOINED AGAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY WHILE A DRYLINE SURGES
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...BUT VEERING WINDS AND A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER ALONG THE DRYLINE A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET WHEN THE CAP
BECOMES WEAKEST. WE WILL INDICATE 20 POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND OVERRUNNING ENSUES. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WARMER AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
WACO, TX 65 78 64 86 66 / 20 30 30 10 10
PARIS, TX 62 79 63 79 65 / 30 30 40 10 20
DENTON, TX 64 81 64 88 64 / 20 30 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 63 81 64 83 65 / 20 30 30 10 20
DALLAS, TX 66 81 65 87 66 / 10 30 30 10 10
TERRELL, TX 64 81 64 83 66 / 10 30 40 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 64 80 64 82 66 / 10 40 40 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 64 78 64 85 66 / 20 40 30 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 63 84 63 93 63 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE... A DRY NW FLOW AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS LATE MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS FAR CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON... AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE... WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE WARMED EXPECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST BRIEFLY. CLEARING OUT WILL BE QUICK AND CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
PATCHY IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST BRIEFLY. CLEARING OUT WILL BE QUICK AND CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.
ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.
AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR IN
STRATUS AND FOG...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER INLAND. WE FOLLOWED
THE RAP THIS MORNING REGARDING THE STRATUS...AND IT SHOWS IT
DIMINISHING AT KDLH 14-15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
WITH THAT TIMING THOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MOVING ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF STRONG WAA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE
CONFINED THE POPS TO KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AS MOST AGREES ON KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS DRY.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN THEY WILL VEER
TO MORE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 41 60 24 / 20 20 10 10
INL 65 40 53 19 / 20 10 30 20
BRD 70 38 57 24 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 66 43 61 26 / 50 60 0 0
ASX 64 44 63 28 / 40 50 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BETTER
MIXING AIDS IN CLOUDS LIFTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/N OF
I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY DUE TO UPPER S/WV MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH AND E OF
THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO AID IN SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY...WITH ARW INDICATING MORE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN N/NE MS AFTER 21Z. HRRR IS NOT INDICATING AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SO LOWERED POPS ALONG/N OF I-20 BUT
DUE TO SOME WEAKENING CAPPING AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...POPS/WX
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IN A STRONG STORM OR SO. BUT WITH HRRR BACKING OFF ON ACTIVITY AND
SOME CAPPING LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEPT HWO CLEAR. TEMPS
LOOK GOOD AS WE WILL MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND WARM NICELY.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES BECOMING VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH/GWO/GTR. THE
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH. THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.
WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.
WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.
NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 80 63 83 65 / 19 14 24 10
MERIDIAN 80 61 82 63 / 20 14 21 14
VICKSBURG 81 64 84 65 / 18 14 27 11
HATTIESBURG 84 64 84 64 / 8 10 16 8
NATCHEZ 81 64 83 65 / 10 12 25 10
GREENVILLE 78 63 81 66 / 29 28 44 14
GREENWOOD 79 62 81 65 / 29 26 41 14
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/15/19/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF FLIGHT IMPACTS BEING FROM SE OK INTO
WESTERN AR. CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS CONTINUING AND LOW STRATUS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ORIGINATED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A RESULT OF A GENERAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS IN THIS REGION. LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THE
ONGOING LINE COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONAL SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
DECREASING WITH TIME. ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...RECENT
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE EARLIER MCS IS OCCURRING
IN A REGION OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE
RADAR PRESENTATION AND TRENDS...LIKELY THE PRESENCE OF AN MCV. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THINKING THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND INSTABILITY TRENDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA STORMS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 44...AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM TULSA TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY GET CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS THOUGH.
THIS BRINGS US TO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF
AN INCREASING CAP THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS LATER. BOTH
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. TORNADOES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. IN SUMMARY...OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING FAIRLY LOW...BUT THE
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER IN WHATEVER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER REMAINS LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 64 80 56 / 30 10 30 70
FSM 79 63 80 64 / 40 30 20 40
MLC 81 65 83 61 / 30 20 20 30
BVO 82 62 78 48 / 40 20 30 70
FYV 76 62 74 59 / 40 20 30 60
BYV 76 61 75 60 / 40 20 30 70
MKO 79 63 80 59 / 30 10 20 50
MIO 80 63 75 53 / 40 20 30 70
F10 79 64 81 59 / 30 10 20 50
HHW 79 64 81 64 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING WITH AN
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WEBB MOVING INTO MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. HAVE AT TIMES SEEM STRONGER STORM CELLS WITHIN
THIS...AND WITH CURRENT LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROFILES THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE. MAIN ISSUE WITH STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL.
SOME MESO MODELS WOULD TAKE THIS PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA ZONES..WHILE OTHERS WEAKEN IT BUT DEVELOP STORMS
OFFSHORE. THE HRRR WAS DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION...BUT HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SO NOT REALLY FAVORING ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
TIME. JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.
AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLEAROUND
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWER CIGS FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BRINING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER JET STREAK STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW SINKING DOWN INTO TX
PANHANDLE. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
MID/UPPER LVLS...ALONG WITH DYNAMICS OF PASSING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH IS A POTENTIAL DRY LAYER STAYING IN THE LOWER LVLS
OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING. HI-RES MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ZONAL FLOW FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE
MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS HITTING NEAR 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE ENXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 69 81 70 82 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 80 68 81 70 80 / 50 20 10 10 20
LAREDO 85 68 90 69 91 / 30 10 0 10 10
ALICE 82 69 85 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 76 67 75 70 76 / 30 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 83 65 89 66 86 / 60 10 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 81 69 83 70 85 / 30 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 69 76 70 76 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION VCSH AT VALLEY AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 900 FEET AT BRO AND AROUND
1200 FEET AT T65/EBG WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO AT HRL AND MFE FOR BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS RESULTING IN BRIEF
VFR SKIES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
141 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE... A DRY NW FLOW AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROVIDING FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS LATE MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS FAR CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON... AND COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE... WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO MACON TO SWAINSBORO
LINE. HOWEVER... THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE WARMED EXPECTED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE
TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE... REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. /39
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
TWEAKING THE MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TO
THE GA/TN BORDER BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA TODAY.
LINE OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE TREND THE LAST
FEW HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP...AND SPC SURFACE
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST MUCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODE BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN THE SUB-SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE HRRR DIDN`T HAVE A GREAT GRASP ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THE HRRR IS NOW
KEEPING THE AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER...BUT CONTINUES THE OVERALL
TREND OF WEAKENING THE STORMS. DO THINK THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALONG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT
THAT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL HOLD TOGETHER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED UP BUMPING POPS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE HIGH END SCT RANGE INSTEAD OF
CATEGORICAL. ATMOS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP. SO...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE. HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER MODE...BUT AGAIN...WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER TONIGHT BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BEGIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND COULD BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OVERALL...DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THURSDAYS FORECAST MUCH.
JUST TWEAKED SOME POPS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT IS SPRING...SO WON`T
RULE OUT STRONG STORMS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIP MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A WARM
FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA...IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWFA LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A DECENT 500MB TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SURFACE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. DEFINITELY EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT`S SPRING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND WILL
BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...TEMPS REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCALES BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW SHELTERED
SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT APPROACH 32 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT A DRIER AIRMASS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING GOOD GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO
TYPICAL SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS FROPA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS LATER IN THE WEEK. SCT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL THE
TIMING CAN BE NAILED DOWN.
NLISTEMAA
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MVFR CIGS SPREAD IN
AROUND 05-06Z... THEN IFR BY 08-09Z TONIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT CIGS TO BE SLOW SCATTERING ON
THURSDAY... BUT SHOULD SEE SCT MID CLOUDS BY 19-20Z THU AS A SE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. CURRENT LIGHT NW WINDS
SHOULD SWING MORE WESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN SW THIS
EVENING... THEN AROUND TO EASTERLY TONIGHT BY 06Z. SPEEDS WILL BE
6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON... AND 7-9KTS LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE
EASTERLY WINDS SET UP. EXPECT 9-12KTS ESE WINDS ON THU.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 55 71 59 / 10 20 50 30
ATLANTA 75 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 20
BLAIRSVILLE 70 53 67 55 / 10 20 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 75 55 72 58 / 10 20 50 30
COLUMBUS 79 57 80 60 / 50 20 40 10
GAINESVILLE 73 56 68 57 / 10 20 50 30
MACON 78 56 78 59 / 40 20 40 10
ROME 75 54 73 58 / 10 20 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 76 53 74 57 / 30 20 40 20
VIDALIA 77 59 79 63 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE COMING WEEK AS TWO MAIN UPPER TROUGHS WITH
MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING TWO
MAIN ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER. FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF SPRING SEASON AND
BOTH THURSDAY AND MONDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEMS MAY BRING SEVERE STORMS.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SECOND OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING NEXT WEEK RETURNS ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND STORMS
BY MONDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES GRADUALLY LIFTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST WED APR 1 2015
EARLY EVENING CLEAR SKIES WILL CLOUD OVER AS SHORT WAVE ALREADY
PRODUCING SCATTERED STORMS OVER SW MISSOURI HEAD THIS WAY. LOOKS
LIKE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHWEST A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BY 4AM INDY
METRO. WITH CLOUDS ARRIVING AND WINDS REMAINING UP EXPECT LOW TEMPS
SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EST THU MAR 26 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS STORM TIMING THURSDAY...ENDING OF RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND WHETHER SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTH COUNTIES FRIDAY
EVENING.
THURSDAY...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS AREA THURSDAY
MORNING SUGGESTING A SHORT DURATION BOUT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ENDING QUICKLY IN THE MORNING. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NEW ROUND OF AFTERNOON
STORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED NEAR SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND. STEADY STATE WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHILE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOP 30 MPH...OR OVER IF SUN
BREAKS OUT FOR BRIEF WHILE BUT THAT NOT ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
PERIODS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND GOING ALONG WITH COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. SEVERE THREAT
DOES EXIST BUT IS MARGINAL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST IN THE
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
COUPLED WITH NIGHT TIME STABILIZATION SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDS
EARLY EVENING WHILE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE IN FRONTAL LIFT ZONE MAY CARRY
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON MIN TEMPS WITH LOWS
MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
FRIDAY...MODELS STILL AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING OVER
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
THUNDER THREAT WOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
VALLEY. GENERAL ONE THIRD INCH RAIN FALLS IN CHILLY AIR THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS OUT...ENDING RAIN EARLY
EVENING WEST AND LATE EVENING EAST. SKIES CLEAR ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO FROSTY LEVELS NEAR
FREEZING.
SATURDAY...SOME FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOT THE SKIES BY AFTERNOON AND
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 224 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE OVER ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW WARMER AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ON MONDAY SUGGEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ARRIVING.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
LOW REACHES OF INDIANA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT
HINT AT IT BEING IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 01/2100 TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE 21Z TAF UPDATE WAS TO ADD MENTION OF GUSTS TO
15 KTS AT KIND UNTIL SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18-21 HOURS...THEN A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SOME PASSING CI TO PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALSO.
LATE TONIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING RIDGE. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT TOWARD THE TAF SITES WITH THE
MOISTURE...PROVIDING FORCING. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WITH CCL VALUES NEAR
1300 FT. HRRR PROJECTS RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EITHER VCSH OR -RA MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/LEE
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
541 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES TODAY WILL FACILITATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT A LINE TO
FILL IN FROM NEAR KRWF TO BETWEEN KSTC AND KMSP BY 00Z...AND
EXPAND EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS THE
EVENING. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH. PREVALENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...OTHER THAN WITH THE SHRA/TS ACTIVITY /WHEN MVFR VSBYS
WOULD OCCUR/. IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THEN SCATTERING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
KMSP...
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF MSP BY 00Z...WITH
THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SITE EXPECTED BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z. CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR BUT VSBYS COULD DIP TO MVFR WITH
THE TS ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 45KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO
SUSTAINED 15-20KTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID
20S.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS ENE AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...LS
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
443 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MN IN THE
80S WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF ABOUT
MANKATO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ACCAS DEVELOPING AND A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 00Z
AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS ADVANCING NNE JUST NORTH
OF GRAND FORKS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW FROM THERE
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY BEGINNING TO RISE...
AND THIS TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MAINTAIN
THEIR STRENGTH THROUGH AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE COMPARATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...ABOUT
5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW ITS PROGRESSION DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN THROUGH ST CLOUD AT
ABOUT 23Z...WITH EXPANSION AND PROGRESSION EASTWARD FROM THERE.
THE RAP INDICATES A NARROW AREA OF CAPE ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE
COLD FRONT...INCREASING TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG AFTER 00Z FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...AND ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SO...STORMS WILL
INITIATE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AND EVOLVE EASTWARD...CROSSING
THE WI STATE LINE AFTER 02Z...AND CLEARING EAU CLAIRE AROUND 09Z.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BETTER SHEAR
WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY THU
MRNG...SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THU. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL BE EFFECTIVE
CARRIERS OF THE CAA...WHICH WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS THU TO BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LOW 80S READINGS HIT TDA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EARLY MRNG CDFNT AND THE
REINFORCING CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP THRU THE REGION LATE THU...SO W
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND 15-25 MPH
IN ERN PORTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THU ALONG WITH DRY CONDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLDER AIR RESIDENT ACRS
THE REGION BEHIND THE PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN...BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN...BUT POSSIBLY
SOME OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO NUDGE
POPS INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ESE WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW ATOP THE
PROLONGED LOW PRES TRACK THAT WILL GIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIP.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SOME OF THE
PRECIP...MAINLY THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
CURRENTLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE
DAKOTAS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS THE VERY STRONG
WINDS...GUSTS OVER 40MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND SET OFF A LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT
THIS LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR A LINE FROM RWF TO STC AND PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BUT VIS COULD DROP
TEMPORARILY UNDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME VIS RESTRICTION HAS
BEEN SEEN AT RWF DUE TO THE DIRT/DUST BEING KICKED UP BY THE
EXCESSIVE WINDS. THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE 2-4Z AT THIS TIME.
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS
THIS FAR NORTH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTN OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ARND
50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET...AND THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS ADVERTISED THROUGH IS EXPIRATION
THIS EVE.
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...ONE
OVERNIGHT TNGT AND ANOTHER LATE DAY TMRW...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS OVER WRN MN WILL AGAIN HIT THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WHILE ERN MN REACH 15-25 MPH. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT FOR
THU AFTN. AFTER COLLAB WITH MIFC FIRE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MN...WITH A FIRE WX WATCH TO THE E AND
N OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE FIRE WX WATCH IS ISSUED DUE TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE OF THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA BEING REACHED IN ERN
MN. IN ADDITION...AFTER COLLAB WITH WI DNR OFFICIALS...NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD OF WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE COVERAGE AREA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ042>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-
085-093.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ054>070-073>078-
082>085-091>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ047>049-
054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
FIRE WEATHER...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Tonight - Thursday:
In the very near term an area of convection tied to a pesky MCV over
southwestern MO is expected to track northeast and graze the far
southeast CWA through early evening. Have increased PoPs over this
region to account for this.
Attention then turns back to the west and northwest and focuses on
two areas...the NE/SD cold front and an area of accas from western
KS into the TX Panhandle. Per latest RAP analysis and visible
satellite imagery the airmass remains capped within the cold fronts
baroclinic zone. Low-level moisture taking its time to arrive.
Latest NAM/RAP suggest CIN may not be eroded till closer to 00Z.
Still expect a line of convection to form this evening with the
front sliding east-southeast overnight. This activity expected to
reach far northwest MO towards midnight and then continue across
northern MO. Second area being watched is the KS accas and 12z NAM
defined a h7 shortwave/vorticity max that will move out of CO this
evening. Last several runs of the convective allowing HRRR generates
an expanding area of elevated convection which tracks east
overnight, crossing the KS/MO border after midnight. 18z NAM qpf
hints at this convection but delays the arrival till after 09z. Will
side towards the HRRR for now.
While the severe threat will be greatly muted due to its arrival
time and minimal instability some generous qpf is possible over our
northern and western counties. The latter due to the southerly low
level jet veering overnight and paralleling the cold front which
could result in some post frontal training for several hours.
Convection likely to exit the CWA quickly from west to east
Thursday morning. However, model consensus indicates the front will
stall just south of the CWA, close enough that low chance afternoon
PoPs necessary across the far southern counties to account for
potential late afternoon redevelopment.
Thursday night - Friday night:
The aforementioned stalled front will likely remain just south of
the CWA during this period. However, post frontal stratiform or weak
elevated convective rains are likely north of the boundary Thursday
night into Friday morning. An upper level trough is progged to shift
eastward within a pseudo westerly flow with pieces of energy
ejecting ahead of it through the Central Plains. This should allow
for some isentropically induced rain to form and affect most of the
CWA. The rain chances will end by Friday afternoon with the passage
of the trough axis. Temperatures will be on the cool side and hover
in the 50s all day.
Clearing skies, light winds and cool high pressure will probably
send Sat morning lows to freezing or below.....with a good chance
for a frost.
Saturday - Sunday:
Should be a rather benign weekend with weak ridging aloft
translating eastward and surface pressure falls across the plains
generating a southerly breeze. Should be a very pleasant weekend
with above average temperatures.
Sunday night - Wednesday:
Looks like an unsettled pattern. Southwesterly flow sets up with the
passage of the upper ridge allowing for increasing moist warm air
advection. Considerable model uncertainty on PoPs and timing of the
next cold front. GFS is much faster and brings a cold front through
Monday night in response to a fast moving shortwave coming out of
the desert southwest on Monday whereas the 12z ECMWF shows no sign
of this wave...maybe A poor reflection by 12z Tuesday. In any event,
there is the potential for a couple pieces of weak energy to be
embedded within the southwesterly flow and give us a chance for some
convection. Temperatures are likely to remain above average for the
first part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
Scattered convection over southwest MO will move into parts of west
central and much of central MO after 19z and last into the early
evening hours. Generally VFR ceilings except briefly MVFR with the
strong storms.
Gusty southerly winds into early evening. Winds veer to the northwest
with passage of cold front after midnight.
Otherwise, will delay arrival of line of convection associated with
approaching cold front by a few more hours with activity crossing
into far northwest MO after midnight. Strongest storms/heaviest
precipitation should be across northern MO with activity becoming
more scattered and less intense to the southwest. Line should weaken
as it shifts southeast into west central and central MO towards
sunrise. MVFR ceilings most likely with the convection, probably
several hours of IFR over northern MO. Precipitation will end from
west to east by late morning with ceilings improving to VFR by mid
morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.
FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON`T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.
DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THRU ABOUT 00Z...THEN
BECOMING MVFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU 06Z. STORMS MOVE
EAST OF KOMA AND KLNK 06Z-10Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-015-017-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
407 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION HAS SLOWED SOME...MOISTURE RETURNS HAVE ALSO
BEEN SLOW. DEWPOINTS ARE JUST STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE 50+ READINGS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CAPE VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL...HOWEVER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERTED V WITH A LONG AND SKINNY CAPE AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF INITIATION IS A BIT LATER THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH
STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS EAST WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SURFACE WINDS
ALREADY AVERAGING 25 TO 35 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET SEVERE
WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH. HAIL SEEMS LIKE MUCH
LESS OF A THREAT AND WOULD BE LARGELY SUB SEVERE. FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HRRR AND RAP...WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ORANGE CITY TO
WINDOM AROUND 6 OR 7 PM AND TRACKING EAST INTO THE EVENING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT. ALSO LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE DRIER SCENARIO...BUT COULD SEE LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN UNDER A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN TURN NORTHWEST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH. DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GOOD
TO EXPIRE AROUND 6 PM. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WINDS WILL BE ON AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL SETTLE CLOSER TO 5
TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
COOLER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP MIXING DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS IMPACTS FIRE WEATHER AND IS DESCRIBED
BELOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THE WAVE CROSSING THE
PLAINS WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR
ADVECTS IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND 30S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THOUGH...MORE IN THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE.
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. SO TRENDED HIGHS IN THAT
DIRECTION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY SOME
LOW 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
WEST COAST TROUGH. AS OF NOW LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND HOW FAST
IT MOVES EAST. GEM AND GFS ARE IN ONE CAMP MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
ECMWF KEEPING MORE OF THE ENERGY BACK AND MOVING THE LOW BY ON
TUESDAY. SO FOR NOW CAN JUST SAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE A COLD RAIN OR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENT CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS A COOLER RAIN...WITH MAYBE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK...AND CAN NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO MAIN STORY WILL BE
THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION THREAT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS...A SHARP
WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. COLD FRONT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER AND WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 03Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND ARE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...OVERALL WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE...THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 06Z. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON -
AFTER 22Z...THROUGH AROUND 04Z...PRIMARILY EAST OF A SIOUX CITY
TO ORANGE CITY TO WINDOM LINE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS
WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF FSD...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
IT. UPGRADED SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THURSDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35
MPH RANGE. KEPT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA OUT FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE MORE BORDERLINE THERE...15 TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE THREAT. HOWEVER IF
RAIN TONIGHT ENDS UP MORE SCATTERED OR LESS THAN EXPECTED...MIDNIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER INCLUDING THEM IN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AS WELL.
THE LOW RH CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...15 TO 25
PERCENT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. GENERALLY 10 TO 25 MPH ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND 10 TO 20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BOTH
DAYS...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER GIVEN DRY
FUELS AND LOW RH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ255>258.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-056-062.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ900.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
021-022-032.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WILL AFFECT CRP AND/OR VCT TAF SITES. SLIGHT CHANCE COULD GET SOME
STORMS NEAR ALI...BUT LRD SHOULD BE OUT OF THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES
FOR THE DAY. TONIGHT EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH VERY
HIGH MOISTURE VALUES IN THE REGION. WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED POPS/WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING WITH AN
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WEBB MOVING INTO MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. HAVE AT TIMES SEEM STRONGER STORM CELLS WITHIN
THIS...AND WITH CURRENT LAPSE RATES/SHEAR PROFILES THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE. MAIN ISSUE WITH STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL.
SOME MESO MODELS WOULD TAKE THIS PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE NORTHERN
TIER OF CWA ZONES..WHILE OTHERS WEAKEN IT BUT DEVELOP STORMS
OFFSHORE. THE HRRR WAS DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION...BUT HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SO NOT REALLY FAVORING ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER AT THIS
TIME. JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AFFECTING THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.
AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLEAROUND
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO MVFR CIGS RETURN DURING
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOWER CIGS FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BRINING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER JET STREAK STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW SINKING DOWN INTO TX
PANHANDLE. A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
MID/UPPER LVLS...ALONG WITH DYNAMICS OF PASSING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPUR SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
CONCERN THOUGH IS A POTENTIAL DRY LAYER STAYING IN THE LOWER LVLS
OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MORNING. HI-RES MODELS DIFFER IN
HANDLING THE COVERAGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
ZONAL FLOW FILLS IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM DURING THE
MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS HITTING NEAR 90 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TO
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE ENXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 81 70 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 30
VICTORIA 68 81 70 80 57 / 20 10 10 20 30
LAREDO 68 90 69 91 60 / 10 0 10 10 30
ALICE 69 85 69 86 59 / 10 10 10 10 30
ROCKPORT 67 75 70 76 61 / 20 10 10 10 30
COTULLA 65 89 66 86 57 / 10 0 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 69 83 70 85 60 / 10 10 10 10 30
NAVY CORPUS 69 76 70 76 62 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1147 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY IS PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGH LEVEL CLEARING BEGINNING OVER THE UPPER VALLEY.
MVFR FOR CIGS IS STILL PREVAILING AT BRO....AND ISOLATED LIGHT
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY FROM U.S. 281 EAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MODERATE RETURN FLOW
WILL KEEP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ELEVATED...AND THUS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT...LIFTING AND THINNING
IN THE AFTN. THUS...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SPOTS...BUT
OVERALL...CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MORE OF THE LIMITING
AVIATION FACTOR TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...CURRENT BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION VCSH AT VALLEY AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF VCTS FOR NOW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH
CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH LOW CLOUD DECKS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 900 FEET AT BRO AND AROUND
1200 FEET AT T65/EBG WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO AT HRL AND MFE FOR BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS RESULTING IN BRIEF
VFR SKIES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CEILINGS RISING
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATER TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LATE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. BRO RADAR SHOWS ONGOING VIRGA/ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES NOW THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 650 TO 850 MB WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 1900 FEET. THIS
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE. THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE SUPER BLEND FOR POPS TODAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MET/MAV AND ECWMF MOS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPT FOR THE 70S
ALONG THE BEACHES...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING POSSIBLE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES...LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOW TO MID VALLEY AND THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND THE WEST. MODERATE TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE VERY EARLY PRE-DAWN MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...AND THE SUBSEQUENT
AND BRIEF FORMATION OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL CREATE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS FOR THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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