Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/30/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY AS THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT GOES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 54 71 56 77 / 60 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 41 70 51 75 / 20 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 71 55 76 / 40 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 70 52 75 / 40 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 56 70 54 76 / 70 30 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 48 71 54 75 / 40 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 71 50 76 / 20 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 45 69 49 74 / 30 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 51 69 54 75 / 60 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 73 50 76 / 20 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 44 69 48 74 / 30 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 49 69 52 74 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
130 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
PRODUCING SLIGHT COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A
COOLING TREND TO THE REGION. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/ TODAY...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...DOWN 6-9 DEGREES FROM 20Z FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY...NEITHER BAKERSFIELD NOR FRESNO
SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH BOTH
CITIES CAME CLOSE. FRESNO MISSED ITS RECORD BY ONE DEGREE AND
BAKERSFIELD MISSED ITS RECORD BY TWO DEGREES.
ONE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WAS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF
240+ JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE-
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -3 /OVER EASTERN FRESNO AND
MADERA COUNTIES/ AND 850-MB THETA-E PEAKS AT 332 K /OVER
NORTHEASTERN TULARE COUNTY/. DESPITE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS...THE TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE
MINIMAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY /1700
PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 5790 METERS. THE NAM-12 IS
UNSTABLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 1300
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES AS LOW AS -5 AND 850-MB THETA-E
PEAKING AROUND 333 K. THE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MORE MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE...SO THERE WILL
BE A BETTER...ALBEIT STILL LOW...CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST /20Z/ RFC QPF
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE UP TO 0.02 INCH OF RAIN FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK TO HUNTINGTON LAKE.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT DAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A STRONGER TROUGH TO REACH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...YET ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE STATE NEXT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
THE RESULT OF THESE SYSTEMS IS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL SEE WARMING BACK TO AROUND 90 MONDAY...THEN COOL
DOWN TO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
FROM THIS TROUGH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOUNTAIN CUMULUS SO HAVE BOOSTED SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA TUESDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH TOKEN POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY SYSTEMS AT
THIS TIME PENDING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S TROUGH WHERE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 22KT WILL BE LIKELY AT TERMINALS KMCE/KMER UNTIL
06Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-28 85:1986 53:1982 57:1957 33:1972
KFAT 03-29 87:1969 47:1982 59:1986 32:1891
KFAT 03-30 85:2003 52:1936 58:1978 31:1897
KBFL 03-28 88:1893 53:1998 58:1957 24:1907
KBFL 03-29 94:2004 55:1998 58:1978 23:1907
KBFL 03-30 88:1923 57:1904 59:1978 30:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
538 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.
WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.
A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.
BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.
THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.
IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.
SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.
WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.
A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.
BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.
IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.
SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.
SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.
AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.
SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.
AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HIGH RES MODELS IN LINE WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD MOVING INTO NW GA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METRO BY 11Z.
RAIN ENDS IN ATL METRO AND POINTS NORTH BY 15Z AS AREA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO MCN TO CSG AREA...AND BECOMES LESS UNIFORM. LOCAL WRF
SUGGESTS POSSIBLE THUNDER BY 18Z ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS...BUT WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. RAIN THREAT ENDS SOUTH BY
21Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
..UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
41
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 42 68 43 77 / 20 70 0 5
ATLANTA 46 67 46 74 / 40 70 0 30
BLAIRSVILLE 41 61 37 70 / 70 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 46 68 42 73 / 70 70 0 30
COLUMBUS 48 72 50 76 / 5 50 20 30
GAINESVILLE 45 65 43 72 / 60 70 0 10
MACON 45 70 46 75 / 5 40 10 20
ROME 47 68 41 74 / 80 50 0 30
PEACHTREE CITY 46 68 43 75 / 10 60 5 30
VIDALIA 41 72 50 78 / 5 40 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
4K TO 6K FT RANGE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AROUND 08Z. HI RES LOCAL
MODELS AND HRRR GENERALLY AGREE ON ABOUT 11Z FOR THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE RAIN INTO ATL WITH THE BACK EDGE MOVING OUT AROUND 15Z OR
SO. HAVE ALSO KEPT IFR CIGS IN WITH THE RAIN AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE LOWER END VALUES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AM.
WINDS MAY GO 160-180 AT ATL IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
AROUND TO 200-230 BY 11Z WITH THE RAIN BAND BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
CIGS AND WINDS MEDIUM.
HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
EASTERN HALF ON THE COOL SIDE SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLOWER TO COME
UP THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER AROUND 06Z. MODELS SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WPC HAS AROUND ONE HALF INCH FOR THE NORTH
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS NEAR/ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. SOME LOW CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD FOR THAT AREA. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL POPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
41
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THIS
RIDGE IS VERY SHORT LIVED AND MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA
COAST BY 12-18Z TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW A FEW WAVES MOVING EAST OUT
OF TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE PUSHES INTO NW GA
TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THESE WAVES THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN. THEY BOTH
ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO
THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH
FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE
THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS THINGS GET
CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE EXTENDED.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 42 68 43 77 / 20 70 0 5
ATLANTA 46 67 46 74 / 40 70 0 30
BLAIRSVILLE 41 61 37 70 / 70 30 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 46 68 42 73 / 70 70 0 30
COLUMBUS 48 72 50 76 / 5 50 20 30
GAINESVILLE 45 65 43 72 / 60 70 0 10
MACON 45 70 46 75 / 5 40 10 20
ROME 47 68 41 74 / 80 50 0 30
PEACHTREE CITY 46 68 43 75 / 10 60 5 30
VIDALIA 41 72 50 78 / 5 40 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1012 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
334 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON...TRAILING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO A TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHEAST
IOWA. FROM THERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ITSELF...WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPSIS OF
SURFACE FEATURES WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF CHANGABLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SOME CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVER WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOTH
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ARE WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT MID-UPPER
30S...THUS LATE DAY RISES IN TO THE 40S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. IN ADDITION... NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFTING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS OF A PACIFIC
NATURE HOWEVER...AND MONDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN TODAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. A SHEARED MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LATER MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST FROM WI ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO INDIANA/OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING.
THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBO
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DROP TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE. MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/LOW THEN COMES OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND BECOMING BREEZY...BUT PULLING TEMPS BACK UP ACROSS
THE CWA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST 70 MAY NOT BE OUT OF
REACH ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE 60S ARE LIKELY TO THE
EAST. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE COOLING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALONG THE LAKE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES AND
PASSES. THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE. MID 60S
APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
334 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THOUGH PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SETS UP COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES... WITH RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP CHANCES. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG THE
FRONT. SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEFORE SKIES GO SKC
LATER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE PUSH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONT COULD HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OR STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30KT BEFORE WINDS BACK A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AND EASE MID-LATE EVENING. A VFR CEILING COULD MOVE BACK
IN WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POTENTAILLY SOME VIRGA OR EVEN
A SPRINKLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND SHIFT TO NE WINDS PROBABLY 10KT OR GREATER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS DURING AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA. PERIODIC IFR
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...PROBABLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
259 PM CDT
OBS ARE NOT SUPPORTING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE SO WILL DROP THE STORM FORCE WARNING WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
GUIDANCE ALSO HOLDS ON TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING SO EXTENDED THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT NSH GALE WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT/00Z. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED THROUGH 09Z/4AM CDT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE
UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST AND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE SCOOTS BY. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BOTH 10-20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLIDES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW THAT PASSES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.
Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.
Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.
Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.
After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A cold front is beginning to track across central Illinois from
the northwest, and should be south/east of the terminal area
within the next few hours. The front is accompanied by a band of
lower end VFR cigs, with skies expected to rapidly clear behind
the front. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
entire 00Z TAF valid time, as high pressure builds across the area
behind the cold front. Pre-frontal winds, potentially gusty from
the southwest, will trend northwest behind the front and diminish.
Winds will back southwest again early Monday, gusting to around 20
kts by midday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
905 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
Overall, the current forecast remains on track. Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight. Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs. This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours. Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period. Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.
Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.
Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.
Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa. While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.
A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night. The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night. Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability. The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available. Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive. Just something interesting to watch.
The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest. Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region. Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels. Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame. Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ
909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.
BMICKELSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ
909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.
SCT/BLM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE. DID THROW IN A PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL
THREE SITES OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.
WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
331 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO LORIS
AND SOUTHPORT...ALTHOUGH EVEN HERE I AM FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO
BELIEVE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT OF
LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP IN THE ONGOING
COLD ADVECTION AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS (AS
LOW AS -6C TO -8C) SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION SHOULD TURN NEUTRAL TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS THE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST...EXPECT SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS
TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF A DEEP DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 52-57 RANGE FROM LUMBERTON TO
GEORGETOWN...WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 55 TODAY.
TONIGHT WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTING A FREEZE TO OCCUR IN ALL BUT
SOME BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WERE A BIT COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND MAY BE 1-2 DEGREES
TOO COOL NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT DIE DOWN
BELOW 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THERE SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH MAY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S. A HARD FREEZE LIKE THIS COULD
BE VERY DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED EARLY-BLOOMING PLANTS. GARDENERS AND
FARMERS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LATE
SEASON FREEZE AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)
WILMINGTON 31 IN 2011
FLORENCE 28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 31 IN 2013
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE 5H TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TO
START THE PERIOD WILL EXIT EAST...LEAVING A FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH STEADY INCREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...SO ALL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO. WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IT IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POP UP BUT
WORDING WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER
THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WARMER START
TO THE DAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD TUE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST WED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AND
THU AS IT HELPS LIFT THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE
AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WAVES OVERALL IMPACT ON THE AREA
WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO ITS WEAK NATURE.
GFS/ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN AT ODDS WITH HANDLING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT/CORRECT
WITH RECENTLY...INCLUDING THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS THIS
WEEKEND AND THE COLD FRONT LATER MON. AS SUCH HAVE LEANED
FORECAST IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION. COLD FRONT APPEARS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE ONE TO START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR. THE PARENT LOW IS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND NARROW BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SILENT POP FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO TUE CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT KFLO/KLBT FAIRLY CONFIDENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR SINCE RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CIGS WILL BE VFR BUT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE NW AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE BEING LOWERED
THIS MORNING AS SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH THE SHORT
FETCH ON NORTHWESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS
WEATHER MODELS...MAKING THIS A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SEAS REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CAPE FEAR
HARBOR BUOY. 2 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY. THESE READINGS VALIDATE THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL WHICH IS
THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW SUN WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
RETURN FLOW STARTS INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE A
SOLID 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT MON AFTERNOON AND A SHORT
DURATION SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT A LATER DATE. FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MON EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING MON NIGHT.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION OR GRADIENT POST FRONT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT SUN AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON
ON THE BACK OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW MON NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GRADIENT
DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGING DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3
FT EACH DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN THAT MIGRATED SLOWLY
WSWD FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
UP INTO A FEW AREAS...THE LATEST 11Z RAP SHOWS THAT THE LULL IN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES SHOULD BE BRIEF AS A
DISTINCT POCKET OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF GRTN 6C/KM
SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE/STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ALSO COINCIDES
NICELY WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DSN THERMAL RIBBON OF -12 TO
-18C...SO WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS REINVIGORATED TO SOME
EXTENT BETWEEN 15-20Z /WITH BRIEF SQUALLS POSSIBLE/ FROM KUNV AND
KIPT...SOUTH TO KTHV AND KLNS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND SUSQ REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISC BELOW...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN TAF SITES
THROUGH TODAY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS BETWEEN 15-20Z.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN /KJST
NORTH TO KBFD/.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST.
AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES UP TO 5-7 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON NW
WIND GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20KT RANGE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW AT LNS AND MDT AT TIMES.
12Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR SNOW ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW AT LNS AT TIMES.
09Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR SNOW ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT WORDING IN ZONES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING RANDOLPH COUNTY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. NO CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING
BETWEEN JONESBORO AND MEMPHIS BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WHILE
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EVOLUTION OF STORMS
FORM A LINE BY 2 AM IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA BY 5 AM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...CORRECTED
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AFTER 03Z. HAVE
TIMED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS SUCH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
AT SPEEDS OF 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
640 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...CORRECTED
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AFTER 03Z. HAVE
TIMED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS SUCH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY
AT SPEEDS OF 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE RAIN/SNOW MIX SPREADING INTO THE
MEMPHIS AREA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MID-LEVEL FORCING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE PRECIP CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
FORCING/PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX IN MEMPHIS AREA AND CONTINUE MIX THROUGH
18Z.
EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT COOLER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FREEZE WARNING AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WILL INVESTIGATE FURTHER AS THE FULL 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FREEZE AND FROST WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...BUT AS COLD AS THE MIDDLE
20S IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
IS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A VORT MAX TRACKS FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS AREA. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AS A
REGION OF NVA SHIFTS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AREA WIDE...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AREA WIDE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH SEASONAL
NORMALS...IN THE 60S AREA WIDE.
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. NO OVERLY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED...THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE...THE COLDEST
READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE 40S. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KJBR AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN AND CEILINGS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. AT THE OTHER TAF SITES ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MISSISSIPPI.
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-
PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-UNION.
TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 48 73 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 49 73 41 76 47 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 69 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
BORGER TX 50 75 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 47 75 43 76 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
CANYON TX 47 74 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 48 76 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALHART TX 44 71 41 75 46 / 0 0 0 5 5
GUYMON OK 49 72 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 44 74 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 50 74 43 74 50 / 0 0 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 50 72 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 49 77 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 50 79 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
912 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.
SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THER IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.
WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP CLOSER TO THE FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO LOCATIONS FROM KBCB WESTWARD INTO SE
WEST VA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KROA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY. LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES BY
EARLY MONDAY WITH OCNL MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND KBLF. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIR...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
ONSET BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEST.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER
SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR
CIGS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS .
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
316 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY. THAT IS THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN A
NUTSHELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IN THE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL KEEP THAT HIGHLIGHT GOING AS
SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
BOARD AS OF 20Z WITH MANY AREAS CLOSING IN ON RECORDS. KCYS REACHED
73 F A SHORT TIME AGO...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE CURRENT RECORD. THINK
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WE ARE AT PEAK MIXING. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH RECENTLY.
A FEW CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHWEST WY LATE THIS AFTN WITH
EXCELLENT PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS POST-FROPA
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
BETWEEN H8-H7 AFTER 00Z OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHILE THIS
WILL GO BEYOND PEAK MIXING...WE DO EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO POP UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS BENEATH SHOWERS...SO A STRAY 50 KT GUST IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT. LLVL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM CONFIDENT
IN A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN
MT. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +7 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 DEG C BY NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...BUT STILL A PLEASANT AFTN
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LESS WIND TOO WITH THE H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT LESS THAN 10 METERS. TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO WARMTH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES ON TUES AND WED. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON TUES WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 5C. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDSPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TUES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA ON WED...AND THIS WILL RESULT SOME COOLING BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER (GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS). THUS...WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
ATTENTION ON THURS AND FRI THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE CWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO
NEVADA/UTAH ON THURS THEN MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRI. THERE IS
SOME PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION FROM THURS AFTN INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OFF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. OF COURSE THERE ARE LOCATION DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF
TARGETING AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID INCREASE POPS
INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WOULD BE IN STORE
FOR FRI. APRIL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START OUT WET AFTER A VERY
DRY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SITES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDER THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE SRN
TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HRS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NRLY FLOW WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR...WITH DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON MON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 57 71 56 77 / 50 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 41 70 51 75 / 10 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 52 71 55 76 / 40 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 51 70 52 75 / 40 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 58 70 54 76 / 70 30 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 50 71 54 75 / 40 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 71 50 76 / 10 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 45 69 49 74 / 30 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 53 69 54 75 / 60 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 73 50 76 / 20 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 47 69 48 74 / 30 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 50 69 52 74 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS WERE RACING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE CAP ON
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THEM AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS.
PRECIPITATION (AT LEAST ON RADAR) WAS WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
BUT SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE OF STATIONS HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING
UPSTREAM AND IT HAS BEEN LIGHT AS IT IS WORKING AGAINST DRY AIR
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY FAST TO THE
EAST. THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS FIRST
BATCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...WILL RACE THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH UNTIL LATER WHEN THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL AND ELEVATION SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...MID
20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
SHOULD MEAN ANYTHING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE SNOW. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
ONE TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE MONDAY PORTION
OF THE SHORT PERIOD ONLY...MAINLY TO LOWER POPS IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING...BUT PRETTY LEFT THEM ALONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY MEAN A FEW MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN/GRAUPEL
SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY IN MOST AREAS.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S...AROUND 40 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND AROUND 50 SOUTHERN AREAS. TOUGH TO TELL IF CLOUD
COVER WILL BREAK UP EARLY ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW...CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING...EVEN
WITH THE MIXING DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION SPREADS EAST.
SOME LAKE EFFECT LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT GO CALM. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS IN
QUESTION...BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COULD EXTEND EVEN
FURTHER NORTH...COVERING MOST OF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST AREAS.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
BEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT INDICATING JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. STILL...SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.
DEEPENING COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT. STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN SHOULD STILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE 40S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...30S IN NORTHERN
AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN ONE
SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY...THEN A
COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION THU-EARLY FRI...WITH PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW AT ONSET
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY THU AM. THEN...AS THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP LATER FRI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND
TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-SAT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON
OUR REGION. SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED...RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THU-FRI...BEFORE
TRENDING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY SAT-SUN. MAX TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEYS THU-FRI WITH 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS...PERHAPS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S OR HIGHER...BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIP MOST LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR FULL WARMING POTENTIAL TO BE
REALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INITIALLY WILL BE COLD FOR WED NT-THU
AM...MAINLY TEENS AND 20S...THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THU NT-FRI AM AND MAINLY 30S FOR FRI NT/SAT AM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY SAT-SUN...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE 40S IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH EVEN COLDER MAX TEMPS POSSIBLE ON SUN. OVERNIGHT MINS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 20S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND TEENS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL THE APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS OUR
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AFFECTING KGFL AFTER 09Z/MON.
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF
OCCASIONAL IFR. FURTHER S AND E...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED. THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR...BUT NOT LASTING TOO LONG IF AT ALL.
THEN ON MONDAY...AFTER ANY SNOW SHOWERS END...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DESPITE THESE SHOWERS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE...BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER AT KALB DUE
TO FUNNELING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 20-25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK. ON
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT LIKELY...PERHAPS STRONGER AT KALB. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 KT...AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN
TO 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIP. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL/NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
FROPA STILL ON TRACK FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BACK OVER MS. SUSPECT THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORCING THE CONVECTION. SURFACE INSTABILITY
DOES WANE QUITE A BIT ACROSS GA...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS BEFORE
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 70 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 50 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 70 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 70 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 50 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 60 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1247 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
334 PM CDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON...TRAILING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO A TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHEAST
IOWA. FROM THERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ITSELF...WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THIS COMPLEX SYNOPSIS OF
SURFACE FEATURES WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF CHANGABLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SOME CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVER WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND BOTH
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ARE WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT MID-UPPER
30S...THUS LATE DAY RISES IN TO THE 40S OR EVEN A FEW LOWER 50S
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. IN ADDITION... NEAR-TERM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY
EVENING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 MPH...INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFTING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS OF A PACIFIC
NATURE HOWEVER...AND MONDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN TODAY WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. A SHEARED MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LATER MONDAY HOWEVER...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST FROM WI ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
INTO INDIANA/OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING.
THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH SPREADS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT/LAKE BREEZE COMBO
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST
IND DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST AND DROP TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE. MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/LOW THEN COMES OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO MANITOBA
AND WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING AND BECOMING BREEZY...BUT PULLING TEMPS BACK UP ACROSS
THE CWA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST 70 MAY NOT BE OUT OF
REACH ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST...WHILE 60S ARE LIKELY TO THE
EAST. COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE COOLING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND ALONG THE LAKE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM CANADIAN LOW APPROACHES AND
PASSES. THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE ANOTHER WARM DAY DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...AND CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE. MID 60S
APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS DISTANCE.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
334 PM CDT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THOUGH PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS SETS UP COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES... WITH RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP CHANCES. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TO
BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO
NORTHERN IL AND NW IN BUT SHOULD SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VFR CLOUDS BY MID DAY. CURRENTLY
LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY AND GUST INTO THE MID-
HIGH TEENS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE
IS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER AND MAY DIMINISH ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP INLAND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE IL
SHORE...LIKELY WELL EAST OF ORD AND MDW. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP WITH THE CLIPPER NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...SO HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A BRIEF BUT SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN LLWS TONIGHT.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND SHIFT TO NE WINDS PROBABLY 10KT OR GREATER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS DURING AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA. PERIODIC IFR
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...PROBABLY VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
259 PM CDT
OBS ARE NOT SUPPORTING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE SO WILL DROP THE STORM FORCE WARNING WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
GUIDANCE ALSO HOLDS ON TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING SO EXTENDED THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT NSH GALE WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT/00Z. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED THROUGH 09Z/4AM CDT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE
UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST AND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE SCOOTS BY. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BOTH 10-20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLIDES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW THAT PASSES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Periods of showers that impacted central and southeast Illinois
earlier today were well ahead of the surface cold front that is
currently crossing the area. The cold front is roughly along the
I-55 corridor at this time. The front itself is coming through
dry, but is associated with a band of clouds. Expect the front to
quickly exit to the east over the next few hours, with skies
rapidly clearing in its wake (where it has not already done so).
Then, building high pressure will help keep quiet conditions in
place for the balance of the night.
Going forecast had this quiet weather regime well handled. Only
need to update for the latest hourly trends and to remove
precipitation wording in the east from the text products.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Initial band of light rain had largely moved into Indiana by about
12:30 pm. Secondary batch of showers was trying to form at mid
afternoon, but low level air mass remains rather dry, and cloud
heights are mostly above 7,000 feet as well, so this has been
struggling to produce much more than sprinkles. Wind gusts 35-45 mph
formed over the western CWA this morning and have shifted to more
across the east this afternoon, but still some gusts near 25 mph
over the western CWA as well.
Frontal boundary was shown on 2 pm surface map from western
Wisconsin, across eastern Iowa, to west central Missouri. This is
progged by the short-term models to be near Galesburg by 6 pm and
along the I-70 corridor toward 10 pm. HRRR has been persistent in
developing a narrow band of showers along it, the initial hints of
which are seen on regional radar mosaics over southwest Wisconsin.
However, while some additional moisture will spread into the
forecast area the remainder of the afternoon (perhaps getting dew
points up to around 40), not terribly confident that this will have
any better luck reaching the ground this far to the south. Have
maintained some slight chance PoP`s early evening across about the
east half of the forecast area, but went dry everywhere by 10 pm.
Clearing line is not too far away in northwest Iowa, and most of the
CWA should be mostly clear by midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A rather quiet weather pattern to start the week off with as our
area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will drift south of our area during the day Monday bringing
warmer conditions to the forecast area while a shortwave trof shifts
southeast into the upper Midwest late in the day. This feature has
been expected to keep its more widespread cloud cover and rain to
our north and that trend is still holding with this mornings 12z
model runs. The boundary should push across the area Tuesday
afternoon and be close to the Ohio River Valley Tuesday evening as
surface high pressure shifts south from the upper Great Lakes into
our area at night. Upper level ridging is then forecast to build over
the region on Wednesday in response to a rather potent upper level
shortwave forecast to move across the northern Rockies Wednesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the upper wave is forecast to bring in some
mild air to the region Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
east to the lower or middle 70s far southwest.
Have chosen the slower solutions (12z ECMWF and Canadian models)
with respect to the timing of the cold front and showers and storms
into our area late Wednesday night and especially during the day on
Thursday. Fairly decent instability and shear parameters ahead of
the upper wave to our west late Wednesday but based on the projected
timing of the front into our area, the storms should be less intense
as they track into our area early Thursday morning with the better
chances for showers and storms across the forecast area during the
day on Thursday. The front will get pushed southeast into the Ohio
River Valley Thursday night with models suggesting another shortwave
to induce a weak wave on the boundary with a renewed threat for
showers spreading back over the forecast area again Thursday night
into parts of Friday with the higher POPs shifting into southeast
Illinois during the day Friday before the system pushes away from
the area next weekend bringing in cooler weather for at least the
start of the Easter weekend.
After a nice recovery in temperatures starting tomorrow, which should
last through at least Thursday, the mercury will drop off to below normal
levels once again thru Saturday before we see temperatures start to moderate
again on Easter Sunday. Precip-wise, after our slight chance POPs in
the southeast Friday evening, will keep the remainder of the forecast
dry for now with longer range solutions suggesting some shower chances may
return late Sunday night or next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. A cold front
has cleared the area within the past few hours, with high pressure
expected to be dominant for the duration of the forecast. Cloud
cover is expected to be minimal overall, with winds becoming gusty
out of the the southwest for much of the daytime hours Monday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
Overall, the current forecast remains on track. Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight. Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs. This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours. Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period. Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.
Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.
Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.
Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015
A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa. While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.
A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night. The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night. Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability. The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available. Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive. Just something interesting to watch.
The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015
Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT ALONG I-30.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN TOWARD I-20 OVERNIGHT AND STALL
WITH VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE CWA. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS FROM 06Z -18Z AND FROM N TO S
RESPECTIVELY THIS CYCLE. SFC WINDS BCMG N FOR KTXK/KELD AND KMLU.
ALOFT...WE ARE SW 10-40KTS...VEERING TO W/NW ABOVE 10KFT AND UP TO
50KTS ABOVE FL300...SO PRETTY LIGHT REALLY AND NOT LIKELY TO
CHANGE THIS WEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 78 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 77 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 77 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 77 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 80 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 80 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 84 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE WITH APRCH OF
SFC HI PRES RDG. DRY AIR DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB WL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD THIS EVNG. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AS A STRONG
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
EXCEPT WED WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD GET UP TO 30 KNOTS ON EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
504 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ064-073-074-082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.
A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 49 33 52 33 / 70 70 10 0
INL 48 32 51 32 / 60 70 10 10
BRD 59 34 59 41 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 53 31 55 32 / 50 60 0 0
ASX 51 30 50 31 / 70 70 20 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.
THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 51 36 61 / 50 10 0 30
INL 28 49 33 63 / 50 10 10 20
BRD 35 58 42 68 / 10 0 0 10
HYR 29 54 33 65 / 30 0 0 40
ASX 28 47 33 61 / 40 10 0 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS AON 25000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING MONDAY
MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPG 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER SUNDOWN MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
549 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
GUSTY WINDS AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST...GIVEN VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS FOR EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING.
MUCH OF THE SNOW NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
IMPRESSIVE RADAR RETURNS MOVING FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY RESTRICTIONS BELOW
VFR...AND REALLY ANY REPORTS OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE. SIGNIFICANT T/TD DEPRESSIONS NEED TO BE OVERCOME.
APPARENTLY ANY SNOW ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL ACTIVITY...BUT WITH AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FROPA LATER
TONIGHT.
HAVE ALREADY SLOWED THE ONSET OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE TAFS...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO SLOW THEM AGAIN IN THE NEXT
UPDATED.
THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPEARS ONLY ROBUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS AT KJST AND KBFD IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER EAST...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE MOST PART TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW EARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR CENTRAL AND SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...JUNG/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...CHAPMAN/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT WORDING IN ZONES.
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING RANDOLPH COUNTY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. NO CHANGE IN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING
BETWEEN JONESBORO AND MEMPHIS BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WHILE
OTHER SHOWERS DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EVOLUTION OF STORMS
FORM A LINE BY 2 AM IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA BY 5 AM. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
..BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUST.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KMEM AND KMKL BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z OR
SO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT 5 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KMEM AND MKL AROUND 30/06Z. AT KJBR...THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/10Z AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KTUP. KTUP SHOULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 30/09Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHERLY AT 6 KTS OR LESS. ALL RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE AT
ALL SITES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH SUNRISE.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT 5
KTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
224 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS
CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AMONG THE MODELS TO REACH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS
VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12F
EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...20S/30S TO THE WEST. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF ANY OF THE RAIN REACHING AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AT LEAST MEASURABLE...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND REMOVED LIKELY POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
P-TYPE ALL RAIN SO FAR TO THE WEST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY RISE AS MID-LOW CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD REDUCE THE
THREAT OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. ALBEIT...THE GROUND SURFACES
ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
AS OF 845 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF VERY DRY AIR STILL OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SEEN VIA THE LINGERING LOW
PWAT AND MID LEVEL DRYNESS SEEN OFF THE EVENING RNK SOUNDING AS
WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE PER LATEST OBS.
MOST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES-ARW DO BRING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE FAR NW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WORKING DOWN THE
WESTERN SLOPES INTO THE NW NC RIDGES BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWER BAND
MAY THEN TEND TO JUMP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE OR EARLY MONDAY
BUT IFFY GIVEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN OFF EVENING RAOBS.
SINCE GUIDANCE REMAINS TOO FAST WITH PRECIP INTO THE DRY AIR FROM
EARLIER...SLOWED DOWN POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WHILE
INCREASING SOME OVER THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE RUNNING WITH
BRIEF CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR LOW QPF. LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS OUT EAST
AS WELL BUT DOUBTFUL AS TO HOW FAR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES MAKE IT OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR AND TEMPS COOLING
INTO THE 30S COULD SUPPORT A BIT OF SLEET WEST AT THE ONSET SO ADDED
WHILE KEEPING THE SNOW MENTION AT ELEVATION ACROSS THE NW WHERE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTRW LOWERED TEMPS EARLY OVER THE
WEST FOR SOME WET BULB COOLING AT THE ONSET BEFORE READINGS RISE
LATE AS MIXING PICKS UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY DAWN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 329 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1030 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY PWAT AT 0.05 ON THIS MORNING
12Z RNK SOUNDING...SLOWED OUR ARRIVAL TIME A LITTLE. DESPITE THE DRY
AIR...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE
0.50 INCH. FOR TONIGHT POPS USED A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW EAST...RAP
AND NAM...THEN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AND GFS BLEND MONDAY.
BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WPC HAS PAINTED A SMALL AREA OF SNOW IN THE
WINTER WEATHER DAY 1 OUTLOOK JUST TO OUR NORTH.
WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE
THE INVERSION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NEXT SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SLIDES FROM NRN IL MONDAY EVENING INTO
CENTRAL VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING MAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...SO NOT GOING WITH POPS
ANY HIGHER THAN 25. A LITTLE LEFTOVER COLD AIR TUESDAY MORNING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX NORTH OF LEWISBURG AND HOT SPRINGS...BUT
OVERALL DRY.
WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY WITH SE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEST FLOW TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD ENHANCE TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
BARRING ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...WITH NEAR 70 POSSIBLE FROM
DANVILLE/MARTINSVILLE SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON SPEED/AMPLIFICATION OF NEXT SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR AREA THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS THU-EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING THE MOST UNSETTLED.
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KICK IN ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AM THINKING ENOUGH SE FLOW AND IN
SITU WEDGE MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN BRIEFLY BEFORE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING
INTO THE SRN CWA.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS SLOWLY SE INTO PA-
KY LINE WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
ADDED SOME THUNDER IN MOST PLACES FRIDAY. STILL NOT GOING TO HAVE
LIKELY POPS YET...AS MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN BETWEEN WAVES. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KICKS THE FRONT EAST FAST BY ABOUT
5-8 HOURS...WITH GFS SLOWLY EDGING IT SOUTHWARD WITH WEAKER LOW.
WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES WITH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE
START TO SEE DRYING BY SAT AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR...THOUGH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOLLOWS THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
FRONT STILL WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS VERY DRY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO EASTERN WV...BUT MAJORITY OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING CLOUDS AOA 120. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME LWB-BLF...NEAR BCB 12Z-
14Z...THEN LYH-DAN 13Z-15Z. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ONLY RECOVERING
MARGINALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ALLEGHANYS...MOSTLY SPRINKLES TO
THE EAST. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
EASTERN WV/FAR SW VA...BUT SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR AT WORST EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A MIXTURE IN BETWEEN...I.E. BCB. UPSLOPE
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/SW VA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME VFR WITH JUST SCT SC IN
THE 020-035 RANGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC/SCT250 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DURING
-SHRA TO MVFR POSSIBLE UPSLOPE AREAS...LWB-BLF-MKJ-TNB...THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. WINDS SW-WSW 5-10KTS THROUGH 12Z...THEN W-WNW
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-27KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
5KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...E.G. ROA.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT LITTLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...LEAVING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE UNTIL THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS
AND LOCALLY/BRIEF MVFR VSBYS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN -SHRA DURING THE
THU-FRI TIME FRAME. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 937 AM...APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BUFFALO
BUT IS NOT YET TO SYRACUSE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE ARE BANDS OF
SNOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON RIVER BETWEEN 2-3 PM AND PASS EAST
OF OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 5 PM.
THIS FRONT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. A SECOND
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TURN THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY...AND BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR.
CURRENT UPDATE WAS TO TIME BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS TODAY MAY BE
TO HIGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE IT
ABOVE FREEZING. ELSEWHERE...THEY LOOK ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TERRAIN TO 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE
FIRST FRONT PASSES. WINDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK ARE
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST.
SKIES ARE NOW CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASY OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WESTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.
PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...MAINLY EARLY TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL WHIP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL OR MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...SNOW SHOWERS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) WHICH IN SOME CASES WAS COATING THE GROUND. THIS
FIRST LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING WEST
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WERE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO BROAD ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
(INCREASING COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS
HINTED BY THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500
FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BRIEFLY OFF OF ONTARIO...DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINAGLED WITH HOURLY POPS...BUT KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO NO
POPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS
PRECIPITATION...MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AND A BRIEF GUSTY SW WIND
COULD PROPEL TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN 92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEANED MORE WITH THE CLOUDS AND
ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN
AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR. THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.
PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.
SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z (THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD). EVEN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH DURING THE DAY AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AT 8 TO 12
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS. AFTER THE WARM FRONT THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 18 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...KL/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING. WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED.
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AND
EXTENDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KMLU. MORE EXTENSIVE TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MS
RIVER...COULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
30/18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVER NE TX. INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS FROM WEST..MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FOG...TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 31/06Z
TONIGHT./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 77 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 76 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 76 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 76 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 76 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 76 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 78 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
522 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KMLU. MORE EXTENSIVE TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF MS
RIVER...COULD DEVELOP WWD ALONG BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
30/18Z BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING. WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVER NE TX. INCREASING
MID LVL CLOUDS FROM WEST..MAINLY AFTER 31/00Z. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLE FOG...TO MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 31/06Z
TONIGHT./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING THAN WAS EXPECTED AND THIS
IS A SIGN THAT WE HAVE LOST NEARLY ALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO OUR
NE AND THAT FRONTAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS PUTS
THE FRONT NEAR A DFW...TXK...PBF LINE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS FRONT BACKDOORING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS MOVING
SOUTH OF THE AR/LA BORDER INTO OUR NE PARISHES BEFORE WASHING OUT
LATER THIS AFTN. DO NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVING ANY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO TX TODAY. WITH ALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING NONEXISTENT...LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF BUT ISOLATED
COVERAGE AT BEST IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT
LOW CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS EXTENSIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP TO SCATTER THE CLOUD COVER
OUT WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE A PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND
GIVEN A WARMING SOUTH WIND AT THE SFC...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MUCH WARMER GFSMOS TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL
LATELY COMPARED TO THE COOLER NAMMOS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON WED/WED NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MUCH FLATTER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY ON WED BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. THE TROUGH FILLS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING WSW. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY BRINGING
WITH IS A STRONG COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THE BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION BEFORE THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 79 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
MLU 78 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 77 58 78 59 / 10 20 30 20
TXK 77 59 79 60 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 77 58 78 60 / 20 20 30 20
TYR 80 62 82 62 / 20 10 20 10
GGG 80 61 82 61 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 84 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
733 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NW WINDS AT CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND SAW WILL
DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN LATER TODAY
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY IWD
THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS
COULD ALSO FALL TO IFR AT IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
728 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME
PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION SPREADING OUT AHEAD
OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER
JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING
LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE
LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE
CAP. THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
LESS THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND THREAT
IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON
MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MM AND WI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCSH TO KRNH AND KEAU FOR
ABOUT A THREE HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY PASS THESE SITES. STILL LOOKS
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS.
KMSP...AN AREA OF BKN-OVC060-080 WILL PASS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SCT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
EVENING. LIGHT WEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN RETURNING MORE WESTERLY BY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST /OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY LIGHT RAIN AT KEAU
LATER ON TODAY/ WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK
FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...THEN LIGHT S-SE WINDS...THEN
VEERING ALL THE WAY TO W-NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...
THE WIND FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY DUE TO AN ADVANCING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS NEARLY RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDS THAT WOBBLE AROUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY /MAINLY S-SW/
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 20G35 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS WNW 25G40 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ064-073-074-082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO INCREASED THE
WINDS JUST A BIT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. MAX TEMPS LEFT
ALONE FOR THE MOST PART FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB THIS
MORNING. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MARCH INTO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE TREND OF THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IN THE PAST HOUR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 19 UTC.
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
SUNSET AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. COULD NOT RULE OUT LLWS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT THE INLAND SITES. A TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MID/HIGH AND EVENTUALLY
LOW CLOUDS...BECOMING SCT/BKN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW
CIGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CREATE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
AT TIMES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT TODAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR...ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS THE FRONT GET CLOSER LATER
THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THIS WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FEET. WITH THE WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA HAVE RAISED AN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
724 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NW.
MOST OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
IT WAS WINDY EARLIER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA. SIMILAR TO LAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS
CASE...A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA HAD SOME SNOW.
LOOKING COLD BUT DRY ON WED.
A WARMING TREND AFTER THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
618 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AHEAD BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING WESTERN PA. THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND HAS SURGED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
BACK TO WESTERN PA. HRRR TIMING HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MY
WESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS STREAKING EAST
AND WEAKENING QUICKLY BY MID DAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT
OF MY SERN COUNTIES.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BY AFTERNOON
ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE IT COULD FALL AS RAIN OR SNOW. WITH SKIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE QUICK MOVING WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. I LEANED CLOSER TO THE SREF POPS TO HAVE PRECIP MOVING
INTO MY NWRN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
SNOW AS IT BREAKS OUT OVER THE NW AND A LIGHT COATING IS POSSIBLE
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH A WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS FCST TO BE RATHER FLAT...BUT EMBEDDED IN
FAST FLOW ALLOWING FOR IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS UNDER THE
APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE LOWER
BRANCH OF THIS JET STREAK SURGES INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL
AGEOSTROPHIC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO TIGHTEN
THE ISOTHERMS. WHAT WE SEE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6C/KM BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WHILE AN AREA OF STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTER AND NOT BLESSED WITH A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLOW...SO QPF WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF .25-.50"...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. I FAVORED THE ENSEMBLE
SNOW ACCUM GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTED MOST OF MY AREA WILL SEE
LITTLE OR NONE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW SLUSHY INCHES BEING
ALONG THE NY BORDER. TEMPS EVEN THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY SO UNLESS IT SNOWS FAIRLY HARD...MOST ACCUMS WILL
LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES. OVER CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX IS LIKELY FOR A TIME...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO STICK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK.
THE LATEST NAEFSBC HAS NOT CHANGED THE OVERALL THINKING THAT A
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AT THIS RANGE REMAIN FUZZY AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES. THE
GFS DROPS THE FRONT INTO PA THURS NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS
IT THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO
OPERATIONAL MODELS MEAN FRIDAY COULD EITHER BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE
FRONT SETTLING SOUTH...GFS...OR WET AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION...ECMWF.
FROM THERE IT GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AGAIN WITH A
TRAILING WAVE OR WAVES MADE TO SURGE OUT OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE EC ENSEMBLE HINTS AT A WAVY
FRONT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIPPLING ALONG IT EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH A SINGLE MORE COHERENT LOW TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE SCENARIOS...I KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRY THINGS OUT FOR SATURDAY.
IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND WE SEE THE UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON`S BAY SINK SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WE WILL COOL DOWN...THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW OVER WESTERN NOAM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
PACIFIC ORIGIN SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING
WELL BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MOST OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
09Z TAFS SENT.
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY.
IT WAS WINDY EARLIER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS
FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS
A FAST MOVING LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF
CANADA. SIMILAR TO LAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. IN THIS
CASE...A FEW SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA HAD SOME SNOW.
LOOKING COLD BUT DRY ON WED.
A WARMING TREND AFTER THIS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.
THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
542 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WINDS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. DEEP MIXING
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 15Z-16Z...WITH GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 25KT LIKELY THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE
TOWARD SUNSET WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH/CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS AOA 15KFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TUESDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
953 AM MST MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND INTO
TEXAS. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...QUITE A BIT OF ALTO-CU HAS DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING BUT VIS SATELLITE SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO THIN OUT. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM
RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.
WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS ARIZONA...AND PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SUBTLE MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGELY
UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS...THERE IS AT LEAST A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIP WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH REGIONAL
WRF MODELS SUGGEST LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PHOENIX BUT IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS VS PRECIP
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE DESERTS.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL VALUES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AROUND PHOENIX
AND INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED WE ARE FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BEST
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW...CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE NEXT TO NOTHING
FOR MOST IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCALES. MODEL FORECASTS AND NAEFS
ANOMALY PLOTS CLIP THE FAR SE CORNER OF AZ WITH THE BEST LOOKING
MOISTURE SURFACE...NEAR 2-3 STD DEV AT 500MB AND 700MB ON THE NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PLOTS AND 6 TO 7 G/KG AROUND 850MB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS SHOW SOME VERY SCTD
REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND AZ/NM STATE LINE AND
EVEN MORE SPOTTY COVERAGE OVER THE SKY ISLANDS OF SE AZ. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS IN HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THERE COULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...PRECIP CHANCES NOT ANYTHING EXCITING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. BUT...IF ENOUGH VOLUME OF HIGH-BASED RADAR RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE AZ...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TRAVELING OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER INTO
THE EVENING OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TRANSITIONING
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OUR EAST INTO NM AND WEST TX.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...
CITY MARCH 30 MARCH 31
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 97 IN 2004 94 IN 2012
YUMA 99 IN 1934 100 IN 2011
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...
THROUGH 04Z TUE...A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 20 THSD FT MSL.
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF
AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO TRY AND MATCH UP WITH THE RADAR. AREA OF SHOWERS
IS DRIFTING SOUTH RAPIDLY. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGERING BEHIND
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
41
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.
THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 68 43 75 53 / 70 0 10 20
ATLANTA 67 46 74 55 / 90 0 30 30
BLAIRSVILLE 61 37 68 46 / 70 0 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 68 42 74 52 / 90 0 30 30
COLUMBUS 72 50 78 58 / 50 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 43 72 52 / 90 0 20 20
MACON 70 46 78 56 / 40 10 20 20
ROME 68 41 73 50 / 70 0 30 30
PEACHTREE CITY 68 43 75 54 / 90 5 30 30
VIDALIA 72 50 78 59 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
514 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT THIS EVENING
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
SENT EARLY AMD TO ORD/MDW TAF DUE TO EXPECTED INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS LAKE ENHANCED NE WIND DEVELOPS AND
LIKELY PUSHES SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST AROUND 10KT FOR A COUPLE HOURS
EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOKING LIKE WINDS COULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHEN NE WINDS PICK UP TO 10KT EXACTLY AND ON
WIND DIRECTION IN GENERAL OVERNIGHT.
IZZI
UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THIS EVENING...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS TUESDAY
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS POTENTIAL TUES MORNING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...
339 PM CDT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE CLIPPERY-LIKE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
QUICKLY OFF INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE WARMED TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN AROUND 70 (STERLING IL) THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA HOWEVER...WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATONS AS FLOW SHIFT FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
ILLINOIS LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. THUS OUR CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL
LIKELY TURN CHILLIER AT LEAST ALONG THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS WI WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING... CLIPPING NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE
LIGHT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN RAP SOUNDINGS AND A
PERIOD OF DECENT F-GEN FORCING AROUND 850 MB MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER BANDED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL
OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING AND WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH THE WAVE.
COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA
TUESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE HIGHS IN THE 55-60 RANGE ARE EXPECTED WELL WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
THE LAKE... READINGS CLOSER TO THE SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE MID 40S. THE GOOD NEWS HOWEVER IS THAT THIS COOL DOWN
WILL BE BRIEF... AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE BORDER.
WARMER TEMPS...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
CANADIAN LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MILD AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE BEST IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
339 PM CDT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (MAINLY OUR SOUTH
COUNTIES) DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND DESTABILIZATION BY
AFTERNOON...AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE WINDS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE IS DEPICTED MOVING ALONG THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES SOUTH
INTO OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING
ANOTHER WARM UP. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER WEAK HIGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS BY DAYS 6-7...BUT GENERALLY
INDICATE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD IN THIS SCENARIO...WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MUCH WARMER IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PANS OUT
WITH WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
255 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
134 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
134 PM CDT
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALONG WITH
THE DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE LAKE. EXPECT EITHER AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OR A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SOUTH TO EAST WIND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. THIS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...WHEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LAKE. INCREASING SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT STILL
VARIABLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF...WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND OVER ALL OF THE LAKE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS MAY
STILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE INITIALLY WITH THIS
TRANSITION...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A QUICK DIMINISHING TREND
THROUGH MIDDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...
1246 9M CDT
HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBS
TRENDS...MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS...AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD
COVER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAKING LOW (OR
EVEN MID) 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND AROUND 60 EAST. SOME
CONCERN THAT WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN DAKOTAS LOW MAY
ALLOW LAKE BREEZE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE...ALONG THE LINES
OF THE LAST SEVERAL RAP RUNS. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THICKER CLOUD COVER
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ATTM.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
340 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY IS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
BY MID DAY. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY LATE DAY AS THE
CLIPPER APPROACHES. WEAKENING WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ENABLE A
LAKE BREEZE TO SLIP JUST INLAND ALONG THE IL SHORE AND BRING LATE
DAY COOLING. HAVE CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE
ECMWF DECIDEDLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUN.
OVERALL...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH TRACK WILL BRING ONLY A GLANCING BLOW
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST THIRD OR QUARTER OF CWA....SO HAVENT
MADE BIG CHANGES TO SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS DURING EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN LOWER-MID 40S TONIGHT THANKS TO
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AS CLIPPER PASSES TO NORTHEAST...BUT
THEN THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE WAKE
OF IT. 850 MB TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT -2 CELSIUS NEAR THE LAKE BY
MID DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...HAVE SHAVED SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
HIGHS...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST DUE TO LAKE
BREEZE INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LAKE COOLING WILL PUSH
INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A CHILLY MID TO
UPPER 30S ALONG THE SHORE BY SUNSET....SO A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
RC
&&
.LONG TERM...
332 AM CDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES AND A LOWER TROP
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN TOGETHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE STARTING POINT
OF THE DAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...SO FEEL
COMFORTABLE GOING WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS NEAR WHERE THEY
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SHOULD BE FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 7-10C THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS SUPPORTS 60S IN MOST PLACES WITH THE IMMEDIATE
ILLINOIS LAKE SHORE POTENTIALLY HAVING SLIGHT COOLING GIVEN A
FORECAST WIND DIRECTION OF 170 DEGREES OR SO.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF JET COUPLING TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION FORECAST
AROUND 992 MB USING A MEAN GLOBAL SOLUTION. THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS PRESENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S /YES LOWS/. HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER EC SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND A
MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUITE POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
RACING EAST...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOW WITH A PARALLEL
UPPER JET INCREASING OVERHEAD...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING FRIDAY OR SO. OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...GUIDANCE
HAS NOT SURPRISINGLY VARIED WITH HOW THIS ALL WILL MESH TOGETHER
IN OUR REGION...AND LIKELY CHANGES WILL OCCUR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOST WARRANTED IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE LATTER
LIKELY BEING COOLER...IF NOT CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTN DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST LESS THAN 10
KT ARND 00Z...AND THEN VEER TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 18
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
* LLWS PSBL OVERNIGHT.
* MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND IT WILL
TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL TONIGHT. WEST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25
KT AND THEY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE WINDS COULD BE
NORTHEAST AND ARND 10 KT...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS EAST AT 8 KT
FOR NOW AT MDW AND ORD. THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW SHOULD FALL
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS OVER WI AND LAKE MI. WINDS
THEN VEER TO SW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
ALOFT AS WELL LEADING TO LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS THEN FEATURE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BACKING TO NW.
DECIDED TO HOLD ON TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO FEATURE MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVING
THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY SIGNIFICANT SO KEPT SCATTERED MVFR
CIGS GOING. WINDS THEN BACK TO NW AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
FORECAST...THINKING GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THIS EVENING...WINDS MAY BE STRONGER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS REMAINING EAST OF ORD AND MDW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING.
THURSDAY...SHRA LIKELY...CHANCE TSRA. PERIODIC IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS. NE WINDS 10KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
429 AM CDT
MAIN MARINE CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE TONIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE PATH THE LOW TAKES WILL
DICTATE WIND SPEEDS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST FAVORING A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH PATH SUPPORTIVE OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT. HOWEVER...A FARTHER SOUTH PATH WOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER
WESTERLY WINDS. DUE TO THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTH OF THE LOW...NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 25 KT AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH DOWN THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER LOW ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM EARLY 15 TO 20
KT/POSSIBLY 25 KT SPEEDS TO START THE DAY...SO WAVES WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH TIME TO BUILD ON SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE UPPER PLAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A STOUT
INVERSION FORECAST. SO THE CHALLENGE RETURNS AS TO HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM WILL BE TRANSFERED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOR RIGHT NOW IN
THE NORTH HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL GALES WHILE IN THE SOUTH TO 30
KT. THE LOW WILL STEER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW FAVORED EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL TURN
WINDS WESTERLY AND DIMINISH THEM IN SPEED.
RC/MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM
RESULTING IN NW FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR SUPPORTED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO NRN UPPER MI. AN
UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND 250 MB JET STREAK OVER SRN SASK IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE INTO NRN MN THE WRN LAKES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...NW WINDS WERE DIMINISHING AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA TO MOVE
OUT AS THE SHRTWV DROPS TO THE SE. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -9C WILL
ONLY PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY NW FLOW LES POTENTIAL AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3K
FT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE WI
BORDER. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE SASK SHRTWV. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE
SHRTWV AS THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER COMPARED THE
NAM AND REGIONAL-GEM. HOWEVER...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE GREATEST PCPN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WI
BORDER...REDUCING CHANCES OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF STRONG 850-700 MB FGEN WILL
SUPPORT PCPN INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH...MAINLY BTWN 00Z-09Z. NAM FCST
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WILL BE MAINLY RAIN TIL
AROUND 02Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING LOWER THE TEMP PROFILE. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED WITH
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BORDER EAST
OF WATERSMEET.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /MIXING WITH RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING/ TUE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER OR NEARBY. THE 00Z/30 GFS IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
BEING STRONGER WITH GREATER QPF...SO STILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR AND
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIP ON TUE.
MODELS IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE WAVE
INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS MON NIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL
WAA STARTS LATE TUE...WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 9C JUST
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TIMING. INITIAL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RAIN WED
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE CWA. RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER /DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/ WILL MOVE W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING-EARLY THU ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...OF COURSE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
THOSE FEATURES. WITH SLY 925MB WINDS TO AROUND 50KTS ON WED...SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS...AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT ALGER/MARQUETTE
COUNTIES LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER MIXING HEIGHTS...HAVE GUSTS TO 30KTS IN THESE
AREAS. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S OVER THE W
HALF OF UPPER MI...WHILE THE E HALF REMAINS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THU
TEMPS/PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF BOTH THE SFC FRONT
EXITING THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW. SHOULD
BE DRY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN THE FEATURES...BUT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT SNOW KICK IN THU NIGHT
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12C UNDER NW WINDS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT LES AMOUNTS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN THU
NIGHT AND FRI. LEANED HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON
THU...WITH COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD INTO MN
LATER TODAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PCPN TO IWD THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ON TUE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RA/SN MIX TO IWD
FOR TUE MORNING AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW INTO CMX AND SAW TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY TODAY WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.
LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.
KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
082-091.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS TEMPS RISING MORE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON SO INCREASED THE
WINDS JUST A BIT. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING. MAX TEMPS LEFT
ALONE FOR THE MOST PART FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES
SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
HIGHS TODAY RISE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST
COOLING ALOFT. THE FRONT ACTUALLY PRODUCES DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER
HIGHS THAN THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MIGHT SUGGEST.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS
OF LARGE RANGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO
QUICKLY BREAKDOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE FORECAST SITS RIGHT NOW...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL AND DETERMINISTIC DATA INDICATE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER AS OF LATE THE GUIDANCE
HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HEATING POTENTIAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. THUS
LOWER 80S /IF NOT WARMER/ SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE PREDOMINATE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND OR
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW AND LIKE TEMPERATURES...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. ESPECIALLY TRUE SINCE WE/VE
HAVEN/T SEEN WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF IN SOME TIME. FORECAST TD/S
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE DRIEST NUMERICAL DATA WITH THE
WRF-ARW WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME USEFULNESS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE T/TD
COMBO DURING PEAK HEATING PROMOTES WIDESPREAD RFW CRITERIA RH. WIND
SPEED RFW CRITERIA HOWEVER IS LESS CERTAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PROMOTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WE ARE FORECAST GUSTS THAT ARE JUST BELOW CRITERIA IN OPEN
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT BASED OFF
OF RECENT RANGE FIRES...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING LARGE
FIRE GROWTH. ADDITIONAL FIRE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY.
WHAT CANNOT BE OVERLY STRESSED ENOUGH IS THAT RH RECOVERY AT NIGHT
HAS BEEN POOR LATELY. WITH A FRONT POISED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO KEEP THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WELL MIXED.
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE POOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POOR
RH RECOVERY IS A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD IN
FINE FUELS THE DAY FOLLOWING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN ANY POTENTIAL RFW FOR WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...THE RH RECOVERY IS FORECAST TO BE POOR
THE NIGHT BEFORE...HOWEVER A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
KEY TO THE FIRE POTENTIAL. LATER ARRIVAL EQUALS GREATER HEATING &
LOWER RH...WHEREAS THE EARLY ARRIVAL WOULD ALLOW FOR THE OPPOSITE.
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS GUSTY CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A
WIND SHIFT. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE A RFW IS ISSUED FOR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEDNESDAY COULD BE A
BIG DAY.
A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT
FORECAST...BUT A FEW RAIN CHALLENGED STRIKES ARE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE EC RUN LIGHTS UP OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION AND QPF...BUT THE DRIER GFS AND NAM REMAIN
FAVORED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS KEYING ON A MIDLEVEL FGEN
BAND AND FAVORABLE ULJ DYNAMICS. SUFFICIENT COOLING TAKES PLACE
SUCH THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A MIX OR A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD QPF LOW.
WILL KEEP POPS AT 40% OR LESS FOR NOW. AFTER A COOLDOWN LATE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES
DOWNSLOPING WINDS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST CURRENTLY. ATTENDANT
WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND LEADING EDGE
OF SFC PRESSURE RISES SHOWS A STEADY SEWD PROGRESSION. VTN HAS
GUSTED TO 30KTS AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE THE HIGHER EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...INCLUDING KVTN. FURTHER S...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BE GUSTY...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FURTHER N. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A QUICK DECOUPLING NEAR SUNSET AND HAVE TRENDED
WIND FCST IN THAT MANNER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE SERIES OF PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS WIPING OUT RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OR ANYWHERE MOIST FOR THAT MATTER. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA INDICATE DRY WEATHER MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NCNTL NEB FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS. WPC SUGGESTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST DRIVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY...THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW VERY DEEP
MIXING ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20. SOME RECOVERY OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEB BUT IN GENERAL HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FCST AREA USING THESE MODELS. SIMILARLY...WIND GUSTS TO 25
AND 30 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...OVERALL LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY
CHANGE DURING THIS FCST PERIOD. MEANING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF TO
PUSH WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU. IN ADDITION...THE WESTERLIES
ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SPLIT TO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIR MASSES
WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ILM CWA
WILL PRIMARILY BE INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS AS WELL AS S/W RIDGES MOVING BASICALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S. AND SPORADICALLY AFFECTING THE ILM
CWA DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A CFP IS SLATED FOR
SAT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A S/W UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS WILL FURTHER AID PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. S/W UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH TO AFFECT THE FA
THE LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO MON. THERE AFTER
MODELS START DIVERGING FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMO
TEMPS/POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...RETURN SE-S FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST...WILL AFFECT THE AREA WATERS
DURING THU. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM RESEMBLING A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY...AND FURTHER VEERING THE WINDS TO A
SW-WSW DIRECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEPS OF THE ILM
CWA AND COASTAL WATERS COME SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THESE 2 DAYS...IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING SFC PG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND BASICALLY BE IN A BUILDING
TREND THRUOUT THIS PERIOD. SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRH/SRP
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...SGL/DRH
FIRE WEATHER...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND
NOW ALL THAT IS LEFT IS FOR THE THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. THE HRRR IS FORECASTING THE DRIER
AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM AND TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW 5 MPH AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 4 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE...THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NEAR LUMBERTON TO THE MID 40S ALONG
THE GEORGETOWN COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER IN
THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE JERSEY SHORE BY THE EVENING.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. BUFKIT INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER WX. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS ALSO LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING NEAR 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECT TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE AT THERE MAXIMUM AT THIS MOMENT WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
4 TO 6 FEET. AS WITH WIND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SEAS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN
TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY TUESDAY WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FURTHER TURNING OF THE WIND.
SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TUESDAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT AS THE
SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AS THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IS
LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN AND QUICK
RETURN OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST FETCH WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...AFTER COORDINATION WITH MHX/RAH WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WX DANGER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR ROBESON...BLADEN...AND PENDER
COUNTIES. EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY <30% IN THAT AREA. FOR REMAINING AREAS...THE WIND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER PLAN TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE REMARKS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
FIRE WEATHER...SRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 PM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO LATE
WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 135 AM MONDAY...AS THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING IN ALL IT
MORNING RUNS THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 3 PM. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
PROGRESSIVE ON TUE TO WEAK RIDGING ON WED AHEAD OF A SUBTLE 5H
IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TUE
AND WED WITH A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WED. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO TUE. FRONT PASSES DRY LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT PASSES. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WED...SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY WED. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION AND
EARLY APRIL SUN WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WED NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE
THU INTO FRI LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INLAND SC BUT MENTIONABLE POP HARDLY SEEMS REQUIRED AT THIS
POINT. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SLOW APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. WHEREAS YESTERDAY IT APPEARED THE FRONT WOULD
REACH THE AREA LATE FRI IT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRI WILL BE DRY WITH FRONT
ARRIVING SAT. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE FRONT ARRIVAL TIME DELAYED
FURTHER GIVEN THE FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE PRESENCE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FRI.
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK THOUGH IF THE SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES IT MIGHT ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING. PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED GIVEN MORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. PLAN TO MAINTAIN CHC POP SAT WITH THE AREA
DRYING OUT SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. FRONT WILL HAVE SOME COLD AIR WITH IT...THOUGH AN ARCTIC BLAST
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN THE CARDS. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN LOW TO
MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR. A BROKEN LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AND HAS MAINLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING
LOW CIGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR
WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AOB 8
KTS...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AS FRONT CROSSES
WATERS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS
ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. SO EXPECT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED
AFTER 8 PM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUE WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS START TO INCREASES TUE NIGHT AS
GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TOP OUT AT A SOLID
15 KT RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
BUILDING IN BUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WED. HIGH IS QUICK TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WED AND BY EVENING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2 TO 4 FT
FT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC/VA COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST...ENDING UP NEAR
BERMUDA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THU BECOMING SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT
AND FRI. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A SOLID 20 KT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT
THU BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT FRI WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON THE SURFACE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WEAK
TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS THE
ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MIXING.
HAVE FOUND THAT THE RAP MODEL TENDS TO HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO
BETTER THAN OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS...SO HAVE LARGELY BASED
FORECAST TODAY ON THE RAP GUIDANCE...THOUGH BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY
LESS EXTREME GUIDANCE AS A TEMPERING FACTOR FOR NOW. RAP SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING AS HIGH AS 750-700MB OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH TAPS WELL INTO LAYER OF 30-35KT ABOVE 850MB. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ENDED UP BUMPING WINDS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DEEP
MIXING ALSO RESULTS IN A WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30. THIS DROPS HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO
15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEEING
HOW STRONGLY THE DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...THIS DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE. IN FACT...RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEW POINTS 3-5F LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO NEXT SHIFT
WILL WANT TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND INTERAGENCY WITH MN FIRE
CENTER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AT SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
TUESDAY LINING UP TO BE A MOST PLEASANT EARLY SPRING DAY...WITH LESS
WIND AND VERY MILD TEMPS. EVEN IN A POORER MIXING ENVIRONMENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WOULD LOOK FOR TEMPS TO MIX TO AT LEAST THE WARMEST
POTENTIAL...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO MORE...WITH UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. TWO DRIER AREAS MAY END UP
BEING THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE TRAJECTORY MORE CLEARLY OUT OF THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE... AND THE FAR WESTERN AREA WHICH WILL
START TO FALL INTO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS TROUGH PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. FAIRLY DECENT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700-500 HPA
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9C/KM...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...LAYER JUST LACKS
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO WORK TOWARD ANY ACCAS TYPE DEVELOPMENT
WITH MID LEVEL ADVECTIONS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. COULD START TO
SEE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE PUSH UP TOWARD THE CWA...BUT
FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER
THAN GUIDANCE...AND COULD AGAIN BE GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND
LEEWARD OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE GIVEN FAVORABLE INVERSION STRENGTH AND
DIRECTION OF FLOW ALOFT. LOWS AS A RESULT QUITE MILD FOR THE START
OF APRIL...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT BEGINS TO CREEP TOWARD THE
AREA...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN
A SPRINKLE THREAT. PROSPECT FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS DO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATELY CAPPED...AND
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE INCREASED FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME...OR IF CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO A HIGHER
BASED NATURE AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOWER PROFILE WEIGHTED...PERHAPS GOOD ENOUGH FOR
A SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
WINDOM TO VERMILLION LINE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
EVENING. LOCATION OF STRONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE
THREAT AND NO THREAT AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PROGRESSION OF FEATURES TO DRIVE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION
THREAT A BIT QUICKER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY A COUPLE SOLUTION SETS
WHICH KEEP PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNTIL ALMOST
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PLACE THE CWA IN A
VERY MIXY ENVIRONMENT...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND WITHIN REACH...
SO AGAIN FELT OBLIGATED TO HEDGE TO A BIT WARMER THAN MAX MIX OUT
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS. COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
ZONAL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUPPORT FROM
CANADIAN AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR A BIT
MORE ECMWF VIEW TO THINGS...WHICH KEEPS A BIT STRONGER BACK DOOR
COOLING PUSH ON SATURDAY...THEN A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARMING ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION
VALUES...OTHER THAN TO HEDGE A BIT WARMER IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ON
SUNDAY. ANY SHIFT TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION OF A FLATTER QUICKER RIDGE
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER WEEKEND...WITH A HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLUSTERY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN WEST NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015
DEEP MIXING IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES...COLLAPSING
DEW POINTS...AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE... LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 15
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8 PM. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVED BY SUNSET AS MIXING COMES TO A HALT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WEEK OF CONCERN AT TIMES...AS PERIODS OF
ENHANCED MIXING ARE LIKELY DRIVING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO LOW LEVELS
AND WINDS TO STRONGER LEVELS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR...
TUESDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONE DAY IN THE SHORTER TERM OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONCERN WITH MARKEDLY LESSER WINDS...STRONGEST AT 10
TO 20 MPH IN RETURN FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MIXING IN
THESE DRIER LOWER BRULE AREAS WOULD YIELD SOME 15 TO 25 PERCENT
LOWEST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
SOME NEAR 25 PERCENT VALUES BE LIKELY IN THE EAST WITH TRAJECTORY
OUT OF EXITING SURFACE RIDGE...BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER AT HIGH LEVELS.
ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. EAST OF I 29 WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
GENERALLY 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DESPITE SOME VERY STRONG PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SW MN
AND NW IA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL
RESTRICT FIRE DANGER TO VERY HIGH...PRIOR TO RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF I 29 BEHIND FRONT...WHERE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
GUSTY.
THURSDAY IS A CLASSIC MIXING DAY ONCE AGAIN ALONG SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 PERCENT RH...
POTENTIALLY A BIT LOWER THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE
LONGER AHEAD OF SECONDARY COOL PUSH. WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF WIND IN
THE MIXED LAYER...WILL AT LEAST END UP WITH ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON
THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IF MORE OF
A BACK DOOR PUSH OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN
WINDS WILL BE DOWN AND HUMIDITY HIGHER...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE DANGER FROM REACHING VERY HIGH CATEGORY. BY SUNDAY...WHILE
GFS IS FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE ZONAL RIDGING...RIDGE DOES BUILD
IN ALL SOLUTIONS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HUMIDITY WOULD
LIKELY BE QUITE LOW ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES
VALLEY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ255>258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...JH/CHAPMAN