Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
116 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOADED IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. DESPITE SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. DESPITE SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
942 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW CU BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
344 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF THAT
MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRALMTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE
SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WL
KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA EARLY
TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE HYR TRRN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACRS THE
PLAINS. WED AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS
COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH
SPREADS PCPN ACRS MAINLY THE HYR TRRN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW CU BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF FA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY
ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF
CONTINUE TO HAVE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR VSBYS AT
KGFL...AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. KPOU HAS RISEN TO VFR
LEVELS...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING. KPSF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z. THE TREND FOR KALB/KGFL WILL BE
FOR HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS BY 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME
LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE KPSF. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM
AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 20Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1223 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF FA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY
ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINATE IFR OR LIFR. THE FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM KGFL TO
ALLOW SOME DRY AIR TO WORK IN ENOUGH TO BRING SOME VFR CONDITIONS
THERE WHILE EVERYONE ELSE WAS IFR OR EVEN LIFR.
WE NEVERTHELESS PLACED A TEMPO FOR IFR AT KGFL AS THERE IS AT
LIKELYHOOD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING BACK INTO THAT TAF
SITE WHICH WOULD LIKELY REDUCE CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO
IFR THROUGH 04Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IFR
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
AFTER 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT ALL THE TAFS
EXCEPT KGFL (VCSH). CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED) WHICH COULD TAKE US TO THE MORNING PEAK (12Z-14Z). AFTER
THAT...ENOUGH DRY AIR LOOKS TO BRING CONDITIONS BARELY INTO THE VFR
RANGE (CIGS REMAINING 3500-4000 FEET) THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS TONIGHT...10-15
KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.
BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.
FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.
SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.
SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.
TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 50 69 51 65 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 54 71 49 72 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 51 71 49 70 / 30 0 0 0
VRB 53 71 45 72 / 30 0 0 0
LEE 52 72 48 70 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 51 72 49 70 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 54 72 51 70 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 56 71 46 71 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.
THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 73 54 75 / 30 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 74 59 75 / 30 10 0 0
MIAMI 64 77 60 78 / 30 10 0 0
NAPLES 63 74 54 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.
THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 61 73 54 / 70 30 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 63 74 59 / 50 30 10 0
MIAMI 88 64 77 60 / 50 30 10 0
NAPLES 83 63 74 54 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
CURRENT-TODAY...AXIS OF A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 00Z.
EARLY MORNING BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WAS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME DECREASE IN DEW POINTS OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
PRE FRONTAL BAND...AND THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.19 INCHES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WERE STREAKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT/MOVE AWAY IN
THE SOUTH WHILE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER. THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ONGOING STORMS TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ASHORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA. SO OUR CURRENT HIGH POPS AROUND 80S PERCENT LOOK
GOOD.
DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG FOR THESE PARTS...45-50
KNOTS...SO FAST MOVING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS A FEW MAX GUSTS 50-60 KNOTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR COIN
SIZED HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 12 CELSIUS. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTH...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE.
CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE
COAST. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
14Z UNTIL CONVECTION AND RAIN COOLING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING...16-17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL
END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...NORTHERN AREAS BY 22Z AND
SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FAST MOVING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
CROSSING THE COAST AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL
IN ADVANCE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45
KNOTS WITH SEVERAL CELLS.
ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.
RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA
MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 61 74 55 / 60 40 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 63 75 59 / 50 40 0 0
MIAMI 88 68 77 59 / 50 40 0 0
NAPLES 81 62 73 52 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.
ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.
OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
715 AM CDT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE WEAKENS. DISORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE THE SNOW
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING...CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FAVORING LARGE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION.
SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOW CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IMPACTS TO MORNING
COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STEERED HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH -35C OBSERVED AT 500MB AT GRB LAST EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...AS SAMPLED WITH -13C AT 850MB...HAS
HELPED CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORT OF THE LAKE HAS
FAVORED A FOCUS WITH 25-30DBZ AND REPORTS INDICATING BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW IN THESE SHOWERS...INCLUDING IN CHICAGO AS OF 330 AM.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SHORE OF WISCONSIN HAVE INDICATED A
BACKING WIND TO MORE NORTHWEST...A SIGN THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK
OVER THE LAKE AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS ENDING OF THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW SHOWERS IS AS FAR
SOUTH AS MILWAUKEE AS OF 330 AM AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ENDING THE TEMPORARY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BY
DAYBREAK IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SEE LESS ORGANIZATION
AND A SLOW DIMINISHING AS CONVERGENCE WANES AND DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN REPORTS AND WEBCAMS OF SNOW ON EVEN PAVED SURFACES...HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS WITH POSSIBLY UP TO AN ISOLATED INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. WE DO THINK THE IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE MAJORITY OF
THE RUSH HOUR WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPORARY
BURSTS CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
DESPITE AT LEAST TEMPORARY SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAXS. THEY ARE
FORECAST TO FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE RECORDS /31 IN
1965 IN RFD AND 26 IN 1904 IN CHICAGO/. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF THIS MORNING MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH THE LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST OUTLYING PLACES.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SHUNT THE
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN MID/UPPER RIDGE EAST...BRINGING HEIGHT
RISES...THOUGH COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT MIXING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW -10 CELSIUS UNTIL THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 40. ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHORE AND
INLAND TEMPS...AS LATEST LAKE SFC TEMP OBS ARE GENERALLY IN MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DUE TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STOUT
BUT SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP BLOSSOMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN BY THE TIME IT STARTS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ECMWF ON SLOWER SLIDE...BUT MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE EVENING. HAVE BUMPED UP TO HIGH END LIKELY
POPS...WITH LINGERING LOW CHANCES IN THE EVENING. OTHER CONCERN
ON SUNDAY IS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC HIGH AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL FROPA. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE MAINLY LOW/SLIGHT CHC
POPS WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM NEARBY ON MONDAY NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WITH
EXCEPTION OF 00Z CANADIAN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO 50S AS SHOWN ON OPERATIONAL
GFS...MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FROM THE 50S ON MONDAY TO PRIMARILY 60S ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND THEN
ONTO IL SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHORE TEMPS COOLER.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MIDDAY...THOUGH BROKEN MAINLY VFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE AT ORD/MDW
AND GYY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT EXCEPT AT GARY...WHERE FETCH RIGHT
OFF OF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW GUSTS CLOSER TO 25-30 KT EARLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A FEW/SCT VFR CLOUDS
STILL MOVING INLAND OFF THE LAKE. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT ORD/MDW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE IN LIGHT GRADIENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
412 AM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS WITH HIGHER END SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES ON
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOR CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...AND FOR LINGERING WAVES INTO SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST AND UP TO 45 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE
IS A FEW HOUR WINDOW ON SUNDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO
STORM FORCE ON THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH AND THEN WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN LAKE DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NEAR LAKE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAND ALSO
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER END GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT AND THEN DIMINISH...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
A PORTION OF THE LAKE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Have updated the forecast to add scattered snow showers for the
eastern 2 columns of counties in the forecast area, for the rest
of the morning. Latest radar imagery showing snow showers that
originated over Lake Michigan streaming southward. Danville
visibility now down to 3 miles and some other heavier showers will
be tracking along the Vermilion/Champaign County line. Would not
be surprised to see a dusting of accumulation in some areas, but
temperatures still expected to rise above freezing this afternoon,
so these should not last. The area has shown some diminishing with
time with no direct connection to the lake now, so have limited
the PoP`s to slight chances along and south of I-70.
Elsewhere, a large area of clearing has been taking place from
Galesburg to Bloomington, spreading southward. Layer relative
humidity plots from the RAP model indicate some of this may fill
in again this afternoon with diurnal development. Temperatures
generally on track and only required minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
An upper level shortwave trough axis will cross central IL early in
the morning with deep northerly flow continuing to advect cold air
into the region through the day today. Brisk northerly winds 10 to
15 mph will continue much of the day before beginning to taper off
late in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches from the
west, weakening pressure gradients over the area. Combined with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, it will be a fairly chilly day
for this time of year. Cloud cover will be prevalent early in the
morning as the trough axis crosses, then tapering off west to east
throughout the day as subsidence behind the trough sets in. Some
lake-enhanced cloud cover and flurries could affect Vermilion and
Edgar counties late this morning into early afternoon, but otherwise
not much indication that cloud cover associated with the shortwave
will produce any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A cold night ahead for central and southeast IL as 1029 mb Canadian
high pressure over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas settles
into the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning and ridges south
into IL overnight into Sat morning. Meanwhile another northern
stream short wave dives SE across central/NE IA/MO overnight and
keeps it light snow chances SW of IL though may get some clouds in
west central and SW IL. Lows tonight in the upper teens NE areas
where less clouds and lower 20s SW areas. This would be above record
lows on Sat morning Mar 28 ranging from 5-15F.
Short wave trof passes across IL Sat morning and into KY/TN by
sunset Sat while 1028 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the
Ohio river valley. This to ensure another chilly day across IL with
highs in the lower 40s and even some upper 30s in east central IL.
Some passing clouds Sat morning give way to more sunshine Sat
afternoon.
00Z models continue dry conditions over central and southeast IL Sat
night as clouds increase overnight over northern areas. Lows Sat
night in the mid 20s eastern IL and upper 20s to near 30F central
and western IL, with temps nearly steady or slowing rising later Sat
night as southerly winds start to increase and clouds increase
especially over IL river valley. Strong surface low pressure around
990 mb passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday as it tracks eastward
over southern Canada and brings a cold front SE across IL Sunday
evening. Have increase chances of rain showers during day Sunday
especially Sunday afternoon. Could be cold enough early Sunday
morning for mix of precipitation over IL river valley in NW counties
if precipitation starts prior to 9 am. Breezy SSW winds Sunday ahead
of cold front to start the warm up into the low to mid 50s. Rain
shower chances diminish from NW to SE Sunday night and mainly occur
Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night in mid 30s central IL and upper
30s in southeast IL.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal by early next week and this to
bring milder Pacific air into IL during early and middle part of
next week. Weak surface high pressure settles into the mid MS river
valley Monday and returns dry weather with mostly sunny skies.
Milder highs Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A surface low
tracking east across the Great Lakes Monday night to bring slight
chance of light rain showers north and NE of I-74 with most of rain
showers passing north of central IL. Milder highs in the mid to
upper 60s expected Tue and Wed with low to mid 60s on Thu. Next wx
system to bring chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Have slight chances of showers
lingering over eastern/SE IL Thu then another chance of showers
arriving next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Main forecast concern is for brief MVFR conditions at KCMI. Area
of snow showers in east central Illinois has been shifting more
into Indiana and should largely be out of the area by 19Z, but
some lower ceilings around 2500 feet are still upstream, being
influenced by flow off Lake Michigan. Am expecting ceilings to
lift above 3000 feet after an hour or two.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be prevailing over central Illinois
the next 24 hours. Any lingering clouds this afternoon should be
diminishing late afternoon as daytime heating diminishes. Winds
will remain gusty out of the north for a few more hours, then
become light and gradually turn easterly tonight, as high pressure
settles into the Great Lakes region.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
715 AM CDT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE WEAKENS. DISORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE THE SNOW
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING...CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FAVORING LARGE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION.
SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOW CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IMPACTS TO MORNING
COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STEERED HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH -35C OBSERVED AT 500MB AT GRB LAST EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...AS SAMPLED WITH -13C AT 850MB...HAS
HELPED CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORT OF THE LAKE HAS
FAVORED A FOCUS WITH 25-30DBZ AND REPORTS INDICATING BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW IN THESE SHOWERS...INCLUDING IN CHICAGO AS OF 330 AM.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SHORE OF WISCONSIN HAVE INDICATED A
BACKING WIND TO MORE NORTHWEST...A SIGN THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK
OVER THE LAKE AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS ENDING OF THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW SHOWERS IS AS FAR
SOUTH AS MILWAUKEE AS OF 330 AM AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ENDING THE TEMPORARY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BY
DAYBREAK IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SEE LESS ORGANIZATION
AND A SLOW DIMINISHING AS CONVERGENCE WANES AND DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN REPORTS AND WEBCAMS OF SNOW ON EVEN PAVED SURFACES...HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS WITH POSSIBLY UP TO AN ISOLATED INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. WE DO THINK THE IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE MAJORITY OF
THE RUSH HOUR WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPORARY
BURSTS CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
DESPITE AT LEAST TEMPORARY SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAXS. THEY ARE
FORECAST TO FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE RECORDS /31 IN
1965 IN RFD AND 26 IN 1904 IN CHICAGO/. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF THIS MORNING MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH THE LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST OUTLYING PLACES.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SHUNT THE
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN MID/UPPER RIDGE EAST...BRINGING HEIGHT
RISES...THOUGH COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT MIXING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW -10 CELSIUS UNTIL THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 40. ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHORE AND
INLAND TEMPS...AS LATEST LAKE SFC TEMP OBS ARE GENERALLY IN MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DUE TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STOUT
BUT SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP BLOSSOMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN BY THE TIME IT STARTS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ECMWF ON SLOWER SLIDE...BUT MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE EVENING. HAVE BUMPED UP TO HIGH END LIKELY
POPS...WITH LINGERING LOW CHANCES IN THE EVENING. OTHER CONCERN
ON SUNDAY IS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC HIGH AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL FROPA. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE MAINLY LOW/SLIGHT CHC
POPS WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM NEARBY ON MONDAY NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WITH
EXCEPTION OF 00Z CANADIAN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO 50S AS SHOWN ON OPERATIONAL
GFS...MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FROM THE 50S ON MONDAY TO PRIMARILY 60S ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND THEN
ONTO IL SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHORE TEMPS COOLER.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE TO DIMINISH TO THE EAST OF
ORD/MDW.
* WINDS 350-010 BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST IN EXCESS
OF 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* VFR CIGS 3500-4000 FT CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DRYING AND LESS OF A FOCUS FROM THE LAKE HELPING TO
END MUCH OF THE SNOW AT ORD AND MDW PRIOR TO 14Z. FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. GYY IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD...THOUGH THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE
SOMEHWAT UNORGANIZED OFF THE LAKE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WORSE
THAN 1-3SM VISIBILITY.
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO UNDULATE SOME IN COVERAGE TODAY BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND BROKEN. WITH MORE DRY AIR FILTERING IN...BASES AT
TIMES OF BROKEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE MVFR.
AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WINDS WILL WANT TO TRANSITION MORE TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THROUGH
MID-MORNING HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO DUE
NORTH...AND SO SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS PROBABLE BEFORE THE SHIFT MORE OFF THE LAKE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
412 AM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS WITH HIGHER END SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES ON
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOR CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...AND FOR LINGERING WAVES INTO SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST AND UP TO 45 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE
IS A FEW HOUR WINDOW ON SUNDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO
STORM FORCE ON THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH AND THEN WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN LAKE DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NEAR LAKE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAND ALSO
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER END GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT AND THEN DIMINISH...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
A PORTION OF THE LAKE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
952 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Have updated the forecast to add scattered snow showers for the
eastern 2 columns of counties in the forecast area, for the rest
of the morning. Latest radar imagery showing snow showers that
originated over Lake Michigan streaming southward. Danville
visibility now down to 3 miles and some other heavier showers will
be tracking along the Vermilion/Champaign County line. Would not
be surprised to see a dusting of accumulation in some areas, but
temperatures still expected to rise above freezing this afternoon,
so these should not last. The area has shown some diminishing with
time with no direct connection to the lake now, so have limited
the PoP`s to slight chances along and south of I-70.
Elsewhere, a large area of clearing has been taking place from
Galesburg to Bloomington, spreading southward. Layer relative
humidity plots from the RAP model indicate some of this may fill
in again this afternoon with diurnal development. Temperatures
generally on track and only required minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
An upper level shortwave trough axis will cross central IL early in
the morning with deep northerly flow continuing to advect cold air
into the region through the day today. Brisk northerly winds 10 to
15 mph will continue much of the day before beginning to taper off
late in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches from the
west, weakening pressure gradients over the area. Combined with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, it will be a fairly chilly day
for this time of year. Cloud cover will be prevalent early in the
morning as the trough axis crosses, then tapering off west to east
throughout the day as subsidence behind the trough sets in. Some
lake-enhanced cloud cover and flurries could affect Vermilion and
Edgar counties late this morning into early afternoon, but otherwise
not much indication that cloud cover associated with the shortwave
will produce any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A cold night ahead for central and southeast IL as 1029 mb Canadian
high pressure over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas settles
into the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning and ridges south
into IL overnight into Sat morning. Meanwhile another northern
stream short wave dives SE across central/NE IA/MO overnight and
keeps it light snow chances SW of IL though may get some clouds in
west central and SW IL. Lows tonight in the upper teens NE areas
where less clouds and lower 20s SW areas. This would be above record
lows on Sat morning Mar 28 ranging from 5-15F.
Short wave trof passes across IL Sat morning and into KY/TN by
sunset Sat while 1028 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the
Ohio river valley. This to ensure another chilly day across IL with
highs in the lower 40s and even some upper 30s in east central IL.
Some passing clouds Sat morning give way to more sunshine Sat
afternoon.
00Z models continue dry conditions over central and southeast IL Sat
night as clouds increase overnight over northern areas. Lows Sat
night in the mid 20s eastern IL and upper 20s to near 30F central
and western IL, with temps nearly steady or slowing rising later Sat
night as southerly winds start to increase and clouds increase
especially over IL river valley. Strong surface low pressure around
990 mb passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday as it tracks eastward
over southern Canada and brings a cold front SE across IL Sunday
evening. Have increase chances of rain showers during day Sunday
especially Sunday afternoon. Could be cold enough early Sunday
morning for mix of precipitation over IL river valley in NW counties
if precipitation starts prior to 9 am. Breezy SSW winds Sunday ahead
of cold front to start the warm up into the low to mid 50s. Rain
shower chances diminish from NW to SE Sunday night and mainly occur
Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night in mid 30s central IL and upper
30s in southeast IL.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal by early next week and this to
bring milder Pacific air into IL during early and middle part of
next week. Weak surface high pressure settles into the mid MS river
valley Monday and returns dry weather with mostly sunny skies.
Milder highs Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A surface low
tracking east across the Great Lakes Monday night to bring slight
chance of light rain showers north and NE of I-74 with most of rain
showers passing north of central IL. Milder highs in the mid to
upper 60s expected Tue and Wed with low to mid 60s on Thu. Next wx
system to bring chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Have slight chances of showers
lingering over eastern/SE IL Thu then another chance of showers
arriving next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Mainly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Breezy north
winds will decrease and shift to more easterly as high pressure
drifts into the region. SCT-BKN cloud cover at 4-6 kft AGL across
central IL in the morning will gradually clear from the west
through the day. Local MVFR ceilings will take place through the
early afternoon in eastern sections of the state along with a
possibility of isolated -SHSN associated with lake effect from
Lake Michigan.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 42 78 48 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 72 42 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 74 45 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 42 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 40 75 47 / 30 0 0 10
P28 60 40 75 48 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 42 78 48 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 72 42 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 74 45 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 42 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 40 75 47 / 30 0 0 10
P28 60 40 75 48 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 41 78 48 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 72 40 80 47 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 74 44 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 41 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 39 75 47 / 20 0 0 10
P28 60 40 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 41 78 48 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 72 40 80 47 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 74 44 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 41 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 39 75 47 / 20 0 0 10
P28 60 40 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.
AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.
WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 44 28 50 / 90 100 10 30
INL 37 43 27 49 / 100 80 10 40
BRD 36 47 31 57 / 80 70 10 20
HYR 31 46 28 52 / 80 100 10 20
ASX 34 46 30 51 / 50 100 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DULUTH MN
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 44 28 50 / 90 100 10 30
INL 37 43 27 49 / 100 80 10 40
BRD 36 47 31 57 / 80 70 10 20
HYR 31 46 28 52 / 80 100 10 20
ASX 34 46 30 51 / 50 100 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
910 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID ADD A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KOMA FOR -RA/SN LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB WILL MOVE EAST A BIT THIS MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 AND
LIFT TO VFR 18Z-19Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.
LATE TONIGHT...THE SREF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...PERHAPS BETWEEN KANW-KONL
AND KBBW WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL WASHOUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1014 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR-MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A NORTH
WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WILL THE WINDS AND
HOW STRONG WILL THEY BE OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER WIND WILL KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHICH COULD MEAN A LIGHT
FREEZE VERSUS A HARD FREEZE. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO MID
TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE
SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP
TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT
ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7K DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE
DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES. NW WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AOB 7 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NW-N WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE
WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY
RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT
BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST
OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM
NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN
NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A
FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
744 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR-MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A LIGHT
NORTH WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE
850 MB TEMPERATURE COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE
SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP
TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT
ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 7K DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...GOOD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE
DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES. NW WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AOB 7 KT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
NW-N WINDS SUNDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10
KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE
WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY
RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT
BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST
OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM
NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN
NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A
FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS A
FINE LINE WHICH HAS JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH KINSTON AND
WASHINGTON A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. INITIAL
BATCH OF RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 16Z ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP FORECAST REMAINDER OF TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILING WILL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN HAS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND
THE POTENT COLD FRONT...PRODUCING SOME MODERATE/HVY SHOWERS AT
TIMES AND REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR. PLUS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH SOME LIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS. SOUNDING MODELS AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK APPROXLY 13/14Z
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT
PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1118 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID- WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE EVENTUAL CFP.
MODELS IN GENERAL CONTINUE WITH A MUCH FASTER CFP THAN WHAT
REALITY IS CURRENTLY DICTATING AT THE MOMENT. IN ADDITION...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOWN BY 88DS IS NOW OCCURRING POST CFP. IN
ADDITION...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PCPN HAS SHOWN A DECREASING
TREND. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO RE-ALIGN AND LOWER POPS BY 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...AND WELL INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CURRENT OVERCAST...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE
BREAKS IN THE OVC...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AWAY FROM
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD...MAX TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTN MAY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK PRIOR TO THE CFP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM RALEIGH TO SOUTHERN PINES...AND WADESBORO INTO UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
THE MILD SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT
TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10
AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY
FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF THE RAW 00Z NAM...00Z WRF-NMM AND
07Z HRRR MODELS.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES.
WAVE #1 IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WAVE #2 COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF NC AND IS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN IN LUMBERTON
AND FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIP WAVES...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-100 PERCENT
AND QPF .10 TO .20 INCHES.
WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB
MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDING THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20
PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET
AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER
30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND
EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING
ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL
FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE
AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN
FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAIN DIFFICULTY TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE CEILINGS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST TIMING WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS WINDOW COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...BRIEF LULL IN THE SW-WSW WIND FIELD PRIOR
TO THE CFP SLATED FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS. AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW THE CURRENT FCST AND
THUS WILL HAVE TO BE AMENDED. ANY CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
QUICKLY REFLECTED IN THE SIG. SEAS. THIS DUE TO ONLY A SMALL
PSEUDO GROUND SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SIG. SEAS...THUS RESULTING
IN MAINLY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES IN THE SIG. SEAS MAKE-UP.
AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME.
SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY
AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY
SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK
TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS A
FINE LINE WHICH HAS JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH KINSTON AND
WASHINGTON A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. INITIAL
BATCH OF RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 16Z ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP FORECAST REMAINDER OF TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY HELD OFF
THUS FAR...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND FRONT...ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER-END MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT
PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF RALEIGH AND SHOULD
START MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BULK OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS FORECAST BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY AROUND 16Z OR SO. HAVE CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
BEING REACHED THIS MORNING AND WILL DROP IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY HELD OFF
THUS FAR...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND FRONT...ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER-END MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO RISE AND
THINK THE MAIN INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 OR 9 FEET BY AFTERNOON WILL ROUGH
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID- WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
RALEIGH TO SOUTHERN PINES...AND WADESBORO INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10 AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT
IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF
THE RAW 00Z NAM...00Z WRF-NMM AND 07Z HRRR MODELS.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES.
WAVE #1 IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WAVE #2 COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF NC AND IS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN IN LUMBERTON
AND FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIP WAVES...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-100 PERCENT
AND QPF .10 TO .20 INCHES.
WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB
MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDING THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20
PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET
AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER
30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND
EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING
ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL
FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE
AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN
FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAIN DIFFICULTY TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE CEILINGS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST TIMING WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS WINDOW COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME.
SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY
AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY
SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK
TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MORE STEADY RAIN TO ARRIVE BY MID
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL FORECAST.
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM 12Z TO ABOUT 20Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FROM
CURRENT READINGS THEN WILL SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES... AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME NW/N AND GUSTY. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS S/SW WINDS PROMOTE GOOD MIXING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH CONDFIDENCE IN LIKELY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL STARTING
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WINDS CONTINUE SW AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE BUT ARE LIKELY 6 FEET OR
BETTER FURTHER OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP JUST AHEAD
OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8
FEET...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH MODELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.
THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.
PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.
LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.
A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
836 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET AND ASSOCIATED NE/SW BAND
OF 850-700 HPA FGEN SLIDING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BRING SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING.
06Z OPER MODELS...03Z SREF AND 11Z HRRR ALL SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ENDING/MVG EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BETWEEN 15-16Z TODAY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WITH
-2 TO -3 SIGMA 850-500 HPA TEMP ANOMALIES WILL COMBINE WITH A
WELL-ALIGNED NWLY LLVL FLOW TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING TREND IN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NW WHERE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F FOR A
HIGH TODAY.
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AS THE THICKER...LAYERED CLOUD SHIELD
SLIDES SLOWLY EAST.
TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR
FREEZING IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SE UNTIL EARLY AFT.
JUST STARTED TO HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT BFD.
DID BRING SOME SNOW INTO THE WEST AND NW TONIGHT AGAIN...AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
719 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE SO
NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SE UNTIL EARLY AFT.
JUST STARTED TO HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT BFD.
DID BRING SOME SNOW INTO THE WEST AND NW TONIGHT AGAIN...AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE
SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS AS NEEDED. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE
09Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EVENING INFORMATION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE
SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN TRAILING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK WEST VA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AIMING NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF
CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR USES THIS TO KEEP THE SERN 1/3-1/2 OF MY FCST
AREA WET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MID MORNING.
OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO
MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD
AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUGGEST TEMPS BY DAWN WILL
RANGE FROM THE M/U20S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY EARLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD END BY LATE
AM...AS SECONDARY SFC WAVE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...APPROACH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY FOR LATE
MARCH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY ARND FREEZING OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO THE M40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT
850 HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN TRAILING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK WEST VA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AIMING NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF
CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR USES THIS TO KEEP THE SERN 1/3-1/2 OF MY FCST
AREA WET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MID MORNING.
OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO
MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD
AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUGGEST TEMPS BY DAWN WILL
RANGE FROM THE M/U20S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY EARLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD END BY LATE
AM...AS SECONDARY SFC WAVE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...APPROACH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY FOR LATE
MARCH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY ARND FREEZING OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO THE M40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT
850 HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED. FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.
ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED. FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SOLIDLY MVFR CONTINUES FOR THE CLT AREA WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR. -SHRA HAS MOVED OUT FOR THE MOST PART BUT MIGHT
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE 15Z AMD.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LOW VFR RETURNS AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL. THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY. LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW. LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG/TDP
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER. THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE. LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED. KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG. ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY. LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% LOW 40% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 90% MED 69% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 78% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 78% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THE FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED
SO HAVE UPPED TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY 15Z TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT. A LITTLE AFTER 00Z MONDAY THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND START TO VEER AROUND THE DIAL TOWARDS THE EAST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRB
FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BRB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/15
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
611 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WINDS ARE STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS IN THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR THESE WINDS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MORE ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AM SEEING WINDS UP BY CASPER IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN FACT...JUST GOT A REPORT FROM BORDEAUX OF 58 MPH. WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE WIND TRENDS ARE HERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BEFORE EXPANDING WARNINGS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY. THAT IS THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN A
NUTSHELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IN THE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL KEEP THAT HIGHLIGHT GOING AS
SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
BOARD AS OF 20Z WITH MANY AREAS CLOSING IN ON RECORDS. KCYS REACHED
73 F A SHORT TIME AGO...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE CURRENT RECORD. THINK
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WE ARE AT PEAK MIXING. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH RECENTLY.
A FEW CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHWEST WY LATE THIS AFTN WITH
EXCELLENT PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS POST-FROPA
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
BETWEEN H8-H7 AFTER 00Z OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHILE THIS
WILL GO BEYOND PEAK MIXING...WE DO EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO POP UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS BENEATH SHOWERS...SO A STRAY 50 KT GUST IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT. LLVL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM CONFIDENT
IN A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN
MT. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +7 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 DEG C BY NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...BUT STILL A PLEASANT AFTN
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LESS WIND TOO WITH THE H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT LESS THAN 10 METERS. TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO WARMTH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES ON TUES AND WED. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON TUES WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 5C. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDSPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TUES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA ON WED...AND THIS WILL RESULT SOME COOLING BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER (GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS). THUS...WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
ATTENTION ON THURS AND FRI THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE CWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO
NEVADA/UTAH ON THURS THEN MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRI. THERE IS
SOME PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION FROM THURS AFTN INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OFF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. OF COURSE THERE ARE LOCATION DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF
TARGETING AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID INCREASE POPS
INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WOULD BE IN STORE
FOR FRI. APRIL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START OUT WET AFTER A VERY
DRY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WIND GUSTS TO
30-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SITES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDER THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ110.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
415 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS PRIOR TO 13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW POSSIBLE AT
ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS.
* PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH AT
LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR TO HOUR AND A HALF.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WETAHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GRAUPEL/SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET/GRAUPEL POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING WITH
HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN TWO HOURS AT THE MOST.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
149 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HELPING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT STILL EXPECTED.
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPEARING TO LIKELY APPROACH STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT TRANSITION
THE NORTHERN HALF TO A STORM WARNING BY 14Z AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH 20Z. GALES MAY LINGER A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THIS END
TIME BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
HALF REMAINS THE SOME...BUT WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALES
COULD CONTINUE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THE END TIME TOMORROW
EVENING.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE
NEARSHORE...PRIMARILY EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING TO 00Z AS WELL.
ALSO...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP PRIOR TO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE AND SO DID ISSUE AN SCA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILTY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
* CHANCE OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
* ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOUR PERIOD OF GRAUPEL/SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING.
* PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF MORE BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOOT AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS ROBUST PRESSURE
FALLS ENVELOP THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
WILL ESCALATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT FAVORED GIVEN STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. THE DIRECTION IS VERY LIKELY TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS IOWA DURING THE PRE-
SUNRISE HOURS AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO LAST ABOUT 3-4
HOURS IN ANY ONE PLACE AND BE SOMEWHAT SHOWERY...SO FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND EVEN CIGS ARE LIKELY. AT ONSET...OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE DO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN WITH ICE
PELLETS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW. THIS COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY
HIGH RATE...ALTHOUGH IS FAVORED TO LAST AS A MIX/FROZEN PRECIP
FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IF IT WERE TO COME TO FRUITION.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
END...WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS WEST WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN SPEEDS.
* LOW-MEDIUM IN SNOW/SLEET/GRAUPEL POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING WITH
HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN TWO HOURS AT THE MOST.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
* LOW IN TRUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HIGH IN 40-45 KT WINDS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. LAKE BREEZE/NE WINDS DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. MODERATE-STRONG SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA IN MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MTF/IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
149 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE HAS BEEN HELPING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT STILL EXPECTED.
HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPEARING TO LIKELY APPROACH STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRENCE...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
CURRENT GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE BUT TRANSITION
THE NORTHERN HALF TO A STORM WARNING BY 14Z AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH 20Z. GALES MAY LINGER A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THIS END
TIME BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS WELL. GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
HALF REMAINS THE SOME...BUT WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALES
COULD CONTINUE A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND THE END TIME TOMORROW
EVENING.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE
NEARSHORE...PRIMARILY EXTENDING THE GALE WARNING TO 00Z AS WELL.
ALSO...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP PRIOR TO THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE AND SO DID ISSUE AN SCA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHANGEABLE LATE MARCH WEATHER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 24+ KTS OVERNIGHT WITH BKN-OVC MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 7K AGL BY MORNING WITH A FAST MOVING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. BETWEEN 29/13Z
AND 29/19Z...TEMPO GROUPING FOR ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH ANY VISIBILITIES IN RAIN STILL AOA 4 SM AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 16 TO 32 KTS AND CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING TO 10
TO 15 KTS BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 71 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 73 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 69 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
452 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST BRINGS SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE WESTERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND SOME LIGHT FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GONZALES TO HOUMA. SOME
PATCHY MAINLY LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND ONE INCH TODAY HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB WILL HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WITH DRY AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. THE GFS
MAV MOS GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THEM
OUT OF THE FORECAST CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE AIRMASS REMAINS AT
THIS TIME.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE KEEPING NO MENTION OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. ON
MONDAY. THE WEAKER SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY. FAR REMOVED FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WEAK
FRONT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
YIELDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST ABOVE ONE INCH WITH A MUCH
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS...PRIMARILY THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING
THE AMOUNT OF QPF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WETTER AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AM CONTINUING TO BLEND THE MODELS WHICH PRODUCES POPS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HIGH MEMBER OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS
GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PROFILES AND FORCING DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS KEEP SOME RAIN AROUND IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITHOUT ANY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE WESTERLIES AND UPPER JETSTREAM WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG AND MOISTURE CONTENT NOT THAT HIGH...SO MOSTLY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCE LOOKING TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR RETURN. THIS HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS TO KMCB AROUND FL025-030...AND THOSE HAVE NOW LOWERED TO NEAR
FL015.
SINCE 08Z...HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...BUT THESE CEILINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY REMAIN ABOVE
FL030. EXPECT CEILINGS THAT ARE IN PLACE AROUND SUNRISE WILL SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL. 35
&&
.MARINE...
NO REAL MARINE ISSUES TO SPEAK OF. ONSHORE WINDS MAY APPROACH 15
KNOTS TODAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 KNOTS...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE HEADLINE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 76 59 80 58 / 0 10 20 10
BTR 79 60 83 61 / 10 10 20 10
ASD 74 58 81 59 / 10 10 20 10
MSY 77 64 81 63 / 10 0 20 10
GPT 71 60 78 60 / 10 10 20 10
PQL 69 57 80 58 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
STRONG S WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVRN CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN SFC HI PRES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA SLIDING SE TOWARD THE UPR
LKS WL CAUSE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR...VFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST DESPITE INCRSG HI
CLDS. AS THE LO MOVES THRU ONTARIO TODAY...SOME MIXED PCPN...MAINLY
SN...WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCOMPANYING LOWER IFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HRS WL BE AT CMX AND SAW...
WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LO. IWD WL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND
COMPONENT THAT WL LOWER THE CHC FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN WL CAUSE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SFC...WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HI AS 25-30KTS DVLPG AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO
DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FNT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WL ALSO FOLLOW THE FROPA AS THE LLVL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL CAUSE A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX
SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
431 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT EXITS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 100 10 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 80 10 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 70 10 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 10 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 100 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.
AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. A WEAK SURGE LINE IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA...RECENTLY TAKING WINDS AT WILMINGTON FROM CALM TO AROUND 10
KT. LATEST HRRR AND RUC MODELS DEPICT THIS FEATURE TRAVERSING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH 2-3 HOURS OF
VERY LIGHT WINDS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE
CURVE UPWARDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM ON ACCOUNT OF
WIND...BUT TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AS WINDS DIE
AWAY. DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO SEE A NORTH WIND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE ISSUE WILL BE WILL THE WINDS AND HOW STRONG WILL THEY
BE OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER WIND WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHICH COULD MEAN A LIGHT FREEZE VERSUS A HARD
FREEZE. ALOFT THE HRRR SHOWS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE COOLING
OVERNIGHT FROM -4.5 TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLING OF THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE RECOVERING FROM RECORD COLD
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE THE LOW-TO-MID 50S AT LEAST BEARABLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY...AND WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUMS BY SUNRISE MONDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT SW WINDS KEEPING LOWS FROM TRULY BOTTOMING OUT ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL START WITH A QUICK WARM-UP AS RETURN FLOW PERSIST AROUND
AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS DRIVEN BY VORT ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW
FLOW...AND A RAPID FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITHIN THE GENERAL RISK FOR THE
SWODY3...BUT PLAN TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, AND THE BEST JET ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL CWA. A PERIOD OF HIGH POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL BUMP POP
TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY FOR MONDAY AFTN. MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRE- FRONTAL...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO DROP
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY EVE. TEMPS MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MORE MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S BEFORE
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S BENEATH CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DURING TUE DRY W-NW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COLUMN. FOR WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH H5 RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL NOT
ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE BELOW CLIMO
AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID-
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
NO FOG EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE GREATER
THAN 10 DEGREES. ALSO N WINDS WILL BE AOB 7 KT THROUGH SUNRISE.
N WIND SPEEDS AFTER DAYBREAK WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SW-W DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
DURING THE EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING
TO NEAR 20 KT AS A SURGE LINE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGION
OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK WHEN WINDS
SHOULD THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS...I HAVE RAISED AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. SEAS
NEARSHORE RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET EXCEPT LOCALLY 1 FOOT NEARSHORE IN
SOUTH AND WEST OF CAPE FEAR. LOOK FOR ABOUT A 1 FOOT INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO WINDS IN VERY SHORT (CHOPPY) PERIODS.
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS...
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2
TO 3 FOOT RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING
IN SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THE
WATERS DURING SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY MORNING SLOWLY
RELAXING AND THEN BACKING TO THE SW LATE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT FROM VASTLY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THESE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...REACHING 20-25 KT
BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN SUNDAY 2-3 FT BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY ON THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...BECOMING JUST 1-2 FT MOST
OF THE DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW 6 FOOTERS IF THE SW FETCH PERSISTS
LONG ENOUGH...BEFORE FALLING BACK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ATTM
NO SCA IS EXPECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN DURING TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN
NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW PREVAILS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE INTO THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD TO 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS UP ON THURSDAY...AND WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE A
FOOT ON THE LOW SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU TIME FRAME.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH/TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.
TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 43 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 75 47 73 54 / 10 10 0 20
MLC 76 49 73 58 / 0 10 0 20
BVO 71 39 72 48 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 67 40 69 50 / 10 0 0 10
BYV 67 41 68 49 / 10 0 0 10
MKO 72 44 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 66 39 70 49 / 10 0 0 10
F10 73 46 72 55 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 78 55 71 59 / 10 30 10 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR BUT WIND AN ISSUE. HGX VWP AND HRRR SHOWING A JET JUST OFF THE
DECK AT 1200-1400FT AROUND 35-40KTS BUT THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE UTS/CLL AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS IN ALL
OF THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z WHEN DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A RAPID MOISTENING AROUND 15-2000FT BUT FOR A
FEW HOURS 12-15Z...WILL CARRY FEW/SCT020 AROUND THIS WINDOW BUT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MIXING INCREASE AND LAYER DRIES
OUT.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 56 82 62 79 62 / 0 0 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 82 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 63 77 66 77 66 / 0 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WINDS ARE EASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING. WENT
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT AS
A RESULT. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR WIND
ADVISORY...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING AS ORIGINALLY ISSUED. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
WINDS ARE STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS IN THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE ARLINGTON ZONE FOR THESE WINDS. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MORE ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING AS AM SEEING WINDS UP BY CASPER IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. IN FACT...JUST GOT A REPORT FROM BORDEAUX OF 58 MPH. WILL
WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE WIND TRENDS ARE HERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
BEFORE EXPANDING WARNINGS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY. THAT IS THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN A
NUTSHELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IN THE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL KEEP THAT HIGHLIGHT GOING AS
SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
BOARD AS OF 20Z WITH MANY AREAS CLOSING IN ON RECORDS. KCYS REACHED
73 F A SHORT TIME AGO...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE CURRENT RECORD. THINK
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WE ARE AT PEAK MIXING. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH RECENTLY.
A FEW CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHWEST WY LATE THIS AFTN WITH
EXCELLENT PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS POST-FROPA
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
BETWEEN H8-H7 AFTER 00Z OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHILE THIS
WILL GO BEYOND PEAK MIXING...WE DO EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO POP UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS BENEATH SHOWERS...SO A STRAY 50 KT GUST IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT. LLVL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM CONFIDENT
IN A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN
MT. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +7 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 DEG C BY NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...BUT STILL A PLEASANT AFTN
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LESS WIND TOO WITH THE H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT LESS THAN 10 METERS. TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO WARMTH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES ON TUES AND WED. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON TUES WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 5C. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDSPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TUES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA ON WED...AND THIS WILL RESULT SOME COOLING BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER (GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS). THUS...WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
ATTENTION ON THURS AND FRI THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE CWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO
NEVADA/UTAH ON THURS THEN MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRI. THERE IS
SOME PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION FROM THURS AFTN INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OFF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. OF COURSE THERE ARE LOCATION DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF
TARGETING AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID INCREASE POPS
INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WOULD BE IN STORE
FOR FRI. APRIL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START OUT WET AFTER A VERY
DRY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SITES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDER THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
944 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE IN N WINDS OVER THE ERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KCOS FROM 10 THROUGH ABOUT
17Z...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
942 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
The rain has made some steady progress eastward, and was generally
along a Lacon to Jacksonville line at 930 am. Dual-pol radar data
suggests some mixed precipitation across the far northern CWA,
which has also been reported at the Galesburg airport, although
web cams are not showing much of an issue with it. HRRR guidance
has been handling this fairly well, and it was used to fine-tune
the precipitation trends today. Bumped up PoP`s to the categorical
range for a few hours across the north as this band moves through.
Secondary band is expected to develop between the Illinois River
and I-55 early this afternoon, and the HRRR suggests perhaps one
final band toward sunset with the front itself. Winds have been
picking up in many areas and gusts over 30 mph already being
reported across the central and western CWA. Area of 35-40 mph
gusts will be working its way eastward with time and should linger
into early afternoon before starting to diminish a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A shortwave moving into northwest Iowa early this morning will
continue moving rapidly ESE-ward through the morning arriving in
central IL later this morning. Precipitation with this feature
should intensify as it approaches as southerly return flow ahead of
it feeds more moisture into the region. Warm frontal boundary will
be followed closely by a cold frontal boundary, causing temperatures
to increase about 10 degrees from yesterday`s readings by late
afternoon, however cold air behind the system will not be very
pronounced. Precipitation amounts still look to be relatively light,
generally under one tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will be fairly
strong and gusty today, as model soundings showing winds into the
30-40 kt range in the near-surface mixed layer. Expect S-SW winds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts looking to be I-74
northward around noon. An outside chance for brief freezing rain
early in the morning in Knox and Stark counties, but looks like rain
will hold off until a few hours after sunrise, and temperatures
likely to rise above freezing just in time for start of
precipitation. Precipitation will be tapering off from west to east
late in the afternoon as the wave continues moving eastward.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Wave moving through the forecast area rather quickly today and the
precipitation should be coming to an end this evening. Keeping the
slight chances in the east. Brief dry pd expected for the first
couple days of the work week with daytime highs more seasonable into
the 60s with 850mb temps warming from 4-5C tomorrow...to 10-11C by
Wednesday. Westerly/southwesterly winds helping to bring some of
the heat in from the western ridging. However, the next system
will be moving on the Pac coast Mon night/Tuesday and making its way
towards the Midwest. Agreement on this system is not happening yet
between the GFS and the ECMWF. The GFS is quicker and cleaner with
the development of the sfc low and progression across the region.
00Z ECMWF is starting to look more like the GFS...bringing precip
Wed night through Thursday. GFS stalling the boundary just to the SE
along the Ohio River Valley and putting the southeastern CWA on the
edge of some weak waves moving along the boundary for Thurs night
and Fri. The ECMWF is still a messier solution with the QPF,
stalling the boundary further to the north and keeping the CWA wet
from Wed night through Friday. Trending the forecast to the GFS is
preferred at this point, particularly with the trend of the ECMWF to
the GFS...but the SuperBlend is a little slower to respond.
Onset of precipitation being delayed to later on Wednesday night is
cutting down the potential thunder activity, but still keeping the
mention in for the initial FROPA. Still concerned that the temps for
Thursday may be too warm considering the proximity of the cloud
cover/rain potential. Unless the clearing behind the boundary is
clean and quick early Thursday, the sun will have little chance to
rebound the sfc temps in the wake of the precip.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
Rain showers will spread from west to east across central IL
starting around 12Z. Observations in the approaching system
showing VFR conditions, however there will likely be isolated MVFR
cigs/vsbys in heavier showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
as it crosses the central IL terminals. Showers expected to begin
around 14Z at KPIA to around 16Z at KDEC/KCMI based on current
timing, consistent with HRRR model. Strong and gusty southerly
winds 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts are expected as well. By late
afternoon a slight wind shift and decrease to SW 15-20g25 kts is
expected as showers taper off. Winds to continue shifting to NW
and decreasing overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
912 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
35 KT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
* RAIN ARRIVES 1530-16Z OR SO WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW
POSSIBLE AT ONSET. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARD SUNSET.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
BAND OF PRECIP IS NOW APPROACHING RFD AND WILL BE REACHING THE
CHICAGO AREA 1530-16Z OR SO. THE BAND HAS NARROWED QUITE A BIT
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO SO DURATION OF THE MORE SOLID PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE 60-90 MIN...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TRAILING IT. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE TEMPS FZRA WILL
OCCUR FOR A TIME AT RFD ALONG WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET OR
SNOW...BUT TEMPS WILL WARM SO FZRA MAY BE SHORT LIVED.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SLEET OR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW AT ONSET.
WIND GUSTS ARE COMING UP SPORADICALLY AND GUSTS MAY BE TEMPERED
DURING PRECIP BUT 30-35 KT GUSTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR
CIGS UPSTREAM BUT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT GUSTS COULD BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE THIS
AFTERNOON IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR WE MIX A LITTLE
DEEPER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WARMING OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS REACHING 35
KT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN BRIEF SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR BEING THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOW
THAT IT WILL OCCUR.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7
PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND
35 KT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
* ONE HOUR PERIOD OR SO OF SLEET OR SNOW POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF
PRECIP LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS.
* PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD SUNSET.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION TODAY. MEDIUM-HIGH IN GUSTS REACHING 35
KT AND TIMING.
* MEDIUM IN BRIEF SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL AT BEGINNING OF
PRECIPITATION...WHILE HIGH THAT IT WOULD LAST NO MORE THAN AN
HOUR.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TIMING AND LOW-MEDIUM IN VISIBILITY DURING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WETAHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. RIGHT AT ONSET OF THE RAIN
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED. ANY THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THIS. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP
OCCURRING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CID AND DBQ COULD SEE
SOME FZRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO RA.
MLI AND BRL WILL SEE RAIN. THEN THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO 40MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GO AWAY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BEING THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR AVIATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...GIBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A VIGOUROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINED BASICALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW TURNING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL 3 LOCAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH WINDY BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 71 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 71 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 73 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 69 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY AS MIXED
PCPN...MAINLY SNOW OVERSPREADS UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST CHANCE FO
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE AT CMX
AND SAW... WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. IWD WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND COMPONENT THAT WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS. THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WILL BRING A PORTION OF THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SFC...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO
FOLOW THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE NATURE OF THESE STRONG
WINDS AT IWD AND ESPECIALLY CMX SLOWING THIS PROGRESSION AT THOSE
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END AS
THE FRONT PASSES...WITH LIFTING CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 100 10 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 80 10 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 70 10 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 10 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 100 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/. WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING. THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA. SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION. HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR. AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AN ISSUE ANY LONGER. WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WIND. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS SCREAMING
ACCORDING TO KUEX WSR-88D AND WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY. THEN...WIND WILL REALLY PICK UP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A RANDOM DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
553 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY THE NORTH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE...WITH ANY FRONTAL TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF MLC/FSM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH NW KANSAS WILL ENTER NE OK
AROUND NOON AND PUSH INTO FAR SE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY HOWEVER SIDED MORE TOWARD
THE LESSER VALUES SHOWN IN THE RAP DATA GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH TX. REGARDLESS...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HOWEVER BY EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE
OK BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE RED RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON MONDAY.
NO APPRECIABLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT W/ HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. A WEAK WAVE WILL
ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE OF ANY RESULTANT PRECIP IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONGST DATA.
TEMPS WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MAINTAINING MORE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPS NEARER NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.
BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ALSO ON THE INCREASE
TODAY...HAS BEEN DEWPOINTS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF
UP INTO ARKANSAS. DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. HRRR...SREF...AND BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. TRENDED POPS
TOWARDS THE HRRR MODELS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 10Z.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO SOUTH ARKANSAS BY 12Z...AND REMAIN NEAR THE
ARKANSAS LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT
HIGHLIGHT ANY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 54 71 56 77 / 60 30 20 20
HARRISON AR 41 70 51 75 / 20 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 71 55 76 / 40 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 70 52 75 / 40 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 56 70 54 76 / 70 30 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 48 71 54 75 / 40 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 71 50 76 / 20 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 45 69 49 74 / 20 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 51 69 54 75 / 60 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 73 50 76 / 20 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 44 69 48 74 / 30 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 49 69 52 74 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
141 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST TODAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER STORM LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
GRIDS WAS TO REMOVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO HELP WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO MONO
COUNTY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INDICATED. FOR
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS, BE AWARE THAT IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER YOU ARE
IN DANGER OF BEING STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BY MONDAY ARE DISPLAYING A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE PRESENT, SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FROM MONO/ALPINE COUNTIES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH NEVADA VALLEY TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS
WILL ALSO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP WEAK AFTERNOON WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 MPH.
A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOLKS WHO HAVE PUT OUT THEIR PATIO FURNITURE FOR THE
NICER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. BRISK NORTH FLOW WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FINALLY DROPPING TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE 60S AND THE SIERRA IN THE 50S.
WEISHAHN
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
STORM TRACK LIKELY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, CERTAINLY COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND,
AND INCREASED ODDS OF APRIL SHOWERS.
FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS ROLLING THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. WHILE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/COLDER THAN PROGRESSIVE EC, OVERALL ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. IT
WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FRESH
NORTH WIND. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 5000 FT SO WE COULD
SEE SOME OF THOSE SPRING PELLET SHOWERS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS.
CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS OF THE (QUITE SHORT)
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. GFS/EC
GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
LATE NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE THINGS COULD GET FUN. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
BRINGS A LARGER COLD TROUGH INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING
INTO TUESDAY. EVEN SHOWS UP ON THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALIES AT
500/200MB, WHICH IS A GOOD SIGNAL AT THESE LEAD TIMES. SO THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW AND A MODEST
PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING OVER CA/NV WOULD SUPPORT INCREASED
CHANCES OF AN APRIL STORM SUNDAY-TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS,
WHILE SHOWING DIFFERENCES, OVERALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA AND NE CA,
BUT KEEP THEM <30% FOR TIME BEING. WINDS WOULD ALSO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BULK OF
ANY PRECIP IMPACTS WOULD BE NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. CS
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/MON.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED IN GFS/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THAT MAY TRANSLATE TO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN MINDEN (MEV) AND
MAMMOTH (MMH) LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW
HOWEVER. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL
KICK THE WESTERLY WINDS UP A BIT EACH DAY, WITH SFC GUSTS 20-30 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TURBULENCE, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND CROSS WIND ISSUES SOMETHING TO
WATCH EACH DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, FOR RNO/CXP/MMH. CS
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
BLOWING DUST SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/WEB CAMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...EAST OF LA JUNTA. PER WEB CAMS...VISIBILITIES NOT ALL
THAT BAD...MAYBE DOWN TO 3-5 MILES IN PLACES...MOSTLY BETTER THAN
THAT. ADDED BLOWING DUST TO FORECASTS OUT THAT WAY. ALSO LOADED
LATEST OBSERVATION SET INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER FOR TODAY. ALSO LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS
INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...PLEASANT SPRING DAY...
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ERN CO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT BRISK N WINDS TO SPREAD OVER SE CO IN THE 12
TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING WINDS DIMINISHING SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE OVER
THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...AS H7 TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND FOUR DEG C THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS...STILL
5 TO 10 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MARCH.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE
SRN AND SW MTS. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF HGWY 160...EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT
LOOKED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT OVER THE
SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTS...LEAVING MENTIONABLE POPS MAINLY OVER THE
SRN ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE POCKETS OF UP TO 500 J/KG CAPE ARE
POSSIBLE THERE...WITH LIFTED INDICES RUNNING MINUS 2 TO 4. ISOLD TS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THESE AREAS SO HAVE CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENINGS...THEN NIGHT TIME STABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT THINGS OFF
AFTER ABOUT 03Z. SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH THE
HIGH VALLEYS FALLING BELOW FREEZING...AND 30S FOR THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AREA OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COMBINING WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVELS WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY...ESPECIALLY I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE SPRINKLES/VIRGA/WIND THAN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...THOUGH HIGHER
PEAKS ABOVE TIMBER-LINE COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW UNDER THE
STRONGEST CELLS. TEMPS MON AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS ALL AREAS...AND A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL NUDGE THE 80F MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOIST LAYER THINS
SOMEWHAT ON TUE...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UPWARD...WITH 70S/80S WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...50S/60S MOUNTAINS...30S/40S PEAKS.
WEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING
MINIMUMS ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WED LOOKS WARM AND FAIRLY BREEZY TO WINDY
AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND 500 MB WINDS
RUN 40-50 KTS. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS WED
AFTERNOON WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARM AIR
MASS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. MOUNTAINS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
AS WELL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY
LATE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA WED NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY ON THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE
THU/FRI FORECAST RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...AS ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH WETTER AND COLDER BOTH DAYS.
GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...KEEPING MOST PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER/DRIER
SIDE AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY FRI EVEN IF
THE WARMER GFS IS CORRECT...THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST ISN`T TOO FAR
FROM EARLY APRIL NORMALS FRI INTO SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING AROUND
TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA
JUNTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PRODUCE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160. THIS SAME MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND MAINLY AFTER 18Z. FOR THE
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS
21Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
* WINDS TREND MORE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TOWARD 00Z WITH SPEEDS
EASING.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
00Z.
* SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEDGE OF SCATTERING SKIES NOSING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN GUST MAGNITUDE. AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED TO THE WEST
ARE REACHING THEIR EXPECTED GUST POTENTIAL THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE LOWER THERE THAN THEY ARE LOCALLY. THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AS MIXING DEEPENS WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH 40
KT. WIND SPEEDS THEN EASE UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD
00Z. RETAINED TEMPO SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW AS THERE MAY BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FROM 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 30 KT GUSTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL PUSH 40 KT. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 21Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS IS LOW THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
259 PM CDT
OBS ARE NOT SUPPORTING STORM FORCE GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE SO WILL DROP THE STORM FORCE WARNING WITH THE AFTN UPDATE.
GUIDANCE ALSO HOLDS ON TO GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS INTO THIS
EVENING SO EXTENDED THE OPEN WATER GALE WARNING INTO THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT NSH GALE WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT/00Z. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN BE NEEDED THROUGH 03Z/10PM CDT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WE ARE
UNDER A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS BOTH FEATURES CONTINUE EAST AND THE LOWS COLD
FRONT SWINGS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE SCOOTS BY. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF BOTH 10-20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SLIDES OVER THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW THAT PASSES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7
PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS
21Z. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS NEAR 40 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
* WINDS TREND MORE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TOWARD 00Z WITH SPEEDS
EASING.
* CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD
00Z.
* SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
SATELLITE SHOWS A WEDGE OF SCATTERING SKIES NOSING INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN GUST MAGNITUDE. AREAS THAT HAVE SCATTERED TO THE WEST
ARE REACHING THEIR EXPECTED GUST POTENTIAL THOUGH WIND SPEEDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE LOWER THERE THAN THEY ARE LOCALLY. THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN THAT GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AS MIXING DEEPENS WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH 40
KT. WIND SPEEDS THEN EASE UP AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD
00Z. RETAINED TEMPO SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW AS THERE MAY BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FROM 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION TRENDS/TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 30 KT GUSTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL PUSH 40 KT. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHEST GUSTS OCCURRING FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 21Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS IS LOW THIS
EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LINGERING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXITING WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT
ERRATIC FREQUENCY. THINNING CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT MID AFTERNOON.
* WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z WITH SPEEDS EASING.
* MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS EXITING TO THE EAST WITH A SMALL AREA
OF DRIZZLE ON THE BACK EDGE...WHICH IS LEADING TO A LOWERING OF
CIGS TOWARDS 030...THOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST BEYOND 19Z.
UPSTREAM OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT A THINNING OF CLOUDS INTO
MID AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRATO CU MAY FORM. COULD BE TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH BROKEN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING TO
THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE OFF THE
DECK SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REALIZE 30-35 KT GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. FREQUENCY OF 30+ KT GUSTS LOOKS TO BE LOW BEFORE
20Z...BUT DECREASING LOWER CLOUD COVER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INCREASED GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE A PERIOD OF
DECENT SUNSHINE THEN GUSTS MAY TOP 35 KT FOR A SHORT TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. HAVE SPED
UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND BUMPED UP GUSTS A
BIT BEHIND IT. MVFR STRATUS MAY ALSO BECOME BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS
BUT MUCH OF WHAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SO OPTED TO KEEP SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
EASE UP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHING.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC 30 KT GUSTS EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 KT GUSTS OCCURRING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE...
1159 AM CDT
BAND OF RAIN...INITIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW...WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE MANY METARS AND PING
PROJECT OBS HAVE REPORTED RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET/SNOW...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR THE MOST PART
AND WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES AND LOSS OF MOISTURE IN ICE
PRODUCTION LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT JUST RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TIMING...INITIAL HEAVIER BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER AS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA APPROACHES
ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM SECOND VORT DIGGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSTREAM
TEMPS FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA
LATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND DIMINISHING A BIT EARLY THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* RAIN EXITING TOWARD 1730Z. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE 00 OR 01Z.
* CIGS MAY LOWER TO NEAR 030 THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE CHICAGO/NW IN TERMINALS AND EXITING
THE RFD AREA. UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE RAINFALL SHOW LOWER GUSTS
BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MIXING RECOVERING.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. CLOUD COVER MAY MAY
ULTIMATELY TEMPER THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
18Z. OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
MAY SKIRT RFD INTO MIDDAY BUT WILL KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DRY THE TAFS OUT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT.
MAY ALSO NEED TO SPEED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BY ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO WITH UPCOMING TAFS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING. AND THAT MVFR VSBY IN RAIN
WOULD BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 30-35 KT GUSTS AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING PRECIP.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
652 AM CDT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS IA TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND
ICING IN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
AREAS WERE MORE VULNERABLE FOR THIS PRECIP TYPE GIVEN IT BEGAN
BEFORE DAYBREAK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NOT TO MODERATE. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS NEAR ROCKFORD AND THE I-39
CORRIDOR FROM 9-10 AM...HOWEVER WET BULB COOLING WILL LIKELY
BRING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT ONSET IF THE PRECIP IS
MODERATE ENOUGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH ALREADY DID HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WITH SEPARATE
STATEMENT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
338 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS A QUICK-MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEM AND DESPITE MUCH OF
THE GULF BEING CUT OFF...DOES HAVE AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/SATURATION
WITHIN ITS WARM ADVECTION WING WITH SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS
IA. AS THIS ELEVATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION TRANSLATES OVER OUR
AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION...BRINGING A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEST-TO-EAST.
RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND 330 AM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RAP SOUNDINGS DO TRANSLATE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 750MB INTO THE AREA WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND THE COMPACT AREA OF STRONG
QG FORCING OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INTENSITY/DYNAMICS OF PRECIPITATION AT FIRST FOR A BRIEF BUT
MODERATE INTENSITY MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW. THIS CHANCE...WHICH HAS
INCREASED...LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND PRIOR TO NOON. HIGH-
RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DO SHOW HIGHER SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY AND HYDROMETEORS/PRECIP TYPE FAVORING THIS BRIEF
MIX...THOUGH THE SPECIFICS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BIG DEAL IN THE AREAS IT BRIEFLY OCCURS DUE
TO WARMING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS...THOUGH VISIBILITY COULD SHARPLY COME
DOWN FOR A NARROW WINDOW OF TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FOR MOST AREA BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE MAY NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THOUGHT EARLIER...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW HOUR
WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL POPS COVERS THIS SITUATION WELL. THE UPPER LOW
IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT MAY HELP PROVIDE SOME
REGENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD FINISH UNDER 0.15 OF AN INCH.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE STRONG WINDS. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL NORTH IN ONTARIO TODAY...THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRESSURE FALLS OF 4-6MB PER
3HR MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT AS WELL AS SOME SHALLOW BUT LIKELY REALIZED MIXING OF
STOUT GUSTS WILL BRING REGULAR 20-27 MPH WINDS WITH 35-40 MPH
GUSTS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BASICALLY IN
TANDEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SOMETHING STILL TO NOTE SO WILL CONTINUE
SPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB FROM SUNRISE THROUGH PRECIP START
TIME...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DIP IN THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS
DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION IS DRAGGED THIS FAR EAST WITHIN THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
TOWARD PONTIAC SHOULD BE REACHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
338 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN GENERAL A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS IN THE DAY TO DAY
DETAILS. WHILE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS BEHIND SUNDAY`S DEPARTING WAVE ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE
A DOWNSLOPING/WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS AND 925 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 10 CELSIUS BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHS A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
APPROACH OF CLIPPER.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH...WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS WILL
NOT UNDERGO MUCH COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE SHORE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE LAKE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL
FOCUS INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION (850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
10-15 CELSIUS BY LATE WEDS) RESULTING IN HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S...AND THEN DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT GIVEN PRESENCE OF FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS. TIMING DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF IN THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL...WITH GFS FAVORING MUCH
QUICKER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMING AND ECMWF FAVORING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
PLACEMENT OF POPS AND HOW FAST COOLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OF NOTE...00Z ECMWF DID
ABANDON IDEA FROM PAST FEW RUNS OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
IT DID HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PRIOR TO 00 UTC CYCLE.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* RAIN EXITING TOWARD 1730Z. BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON.
* SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE 00 OR 01Z.
* CIGS MAY LOWER TO NEAR 030 THIS AFTERNOON.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
PRECIP IS MOVING ACROSS THE CHICAGO/NW IN TERMINALS AND EXITING
THE RFD AREA. UPSTREAM OBS BEHIND THE RAINFALL SHOW LOWER GUSTS
BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MIXING RECOVERING.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH. CLOUD COVER MAY MAY
ULTIMATELY TEMPER THE FREQUENCY OF GUSTS...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
18Z. OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
MAY SKIRT RFD INTO MIDDAY BUT WILL KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE OTHER
TERMINALS FOR NOW. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DRY THE TAFS OUT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT.
MAY ALSO NEED TO SPEED UP THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BY ABOUT
AN HOUR OR SO WITH UPCOMING TAFS.
MDB
FROM 12Z...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS OVER 20 KT BEING NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET AGL ABLE TO BE MIXED
DOWN BY MID-MORNING. EXPECTING THE WIND DIRECTION TO VEER EVER SO
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...BUT STILL BE 190-210 WHEN GUSTS REACH
AROUND 35 KT AT TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING.
A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT
ONSET...ESPECIALLY AT RFD...BUT EVEN BRIEFLY AT THE CHICAGOLAND
TAF SITES. THIS IS MOST FAVORED TO BE SLEET OR SNOW IF IT
OCCURS...THOUGH FOR RFD IT COULD ALSO BE FREEZING RAIN BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THAT
NEEDS TO BE ADDED INTO THE RFD TAF. A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
SOME THOUGH STILL WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONT AS WELL.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TIMING. AND THAT MVFR VSBY IN RAIN
WOULD BE BRIEF.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 30-35 KT GUSTS AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING PRECIP.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA DURING THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
358 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A QUICK-MOVING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CRUISES EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO. THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE STRONG SOUTHERLY GALES TODAY...WITH EVEN STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH HALF IS MOST FAVORED TO HAVE 40
KT...POSSIBLY AT TIMES 45 KT GALES. IN THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE THE SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST
VERY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WINDS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS...BUT DO THINK A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. RIGHT AT ONSET OF THE RAIN
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED. ANY THAT DOES
FORM SHOULD MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THIS. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS PROG TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN WAVE LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS IOWA. AT 3AM
THESE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED FROM SPENCER TO HARLAN TO COUNCIL
BLUFFS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THREE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
FIRST IS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT ARE
STRONG WINDS TODAY...THAT ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THE OTHER IS CONDITIONAL VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER
DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
PRECIP TODAY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. HIRES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN WHAT IS GOING ON NOW AND
THE THE LAST 5 RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT TIMING
IS ACCURATE. OF CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR FZRA
BEFORE THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. STRONG S WINDS WILL LEAD TO WAA AND
WARM TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. OVERALL TOTAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY DRY OUT THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY
IN BUCHANAN...DELAWARE...BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS BEING
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA...SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD
RESULT IN THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INCLUDE WARMER TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO POSSIBLY LATE WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 11-13C AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST ONE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES DON/T PROVIDE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS/GEM. THE 29/00Z ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF FACTORS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR
ANY TYPE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE INFLUENCING THE LINGERING CHANCE POPS
ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THAT PERIOD MAY END UP BEING DRY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING TODAY AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. WINDS WILL BEGIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 KTS...AND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BY 19
OR 20Z/29 AND REMAIN AT 20 TO 30 KTS. MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AROUND DBQ WILL RAPIDLY END AS THIS WIND SWITCH/FRONT
APPROACH. WINDS AROUND SUNSET THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND 10 GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS MONDAY
DURING THE DAY. DRY WEATHER WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES AND
VFR/CLEAR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. ERVIN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GFDI VALUES ACROSS ALL OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES REACH THE THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS APPEARS TO WARRANT
ATTENTION...RAINFALL THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO WET FUELS. IF FUELS
CAN DRY OUT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES
TO BE REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS OTHER THAN HWO AND AFD
SECTION ON FIRE WEATHER
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING INTO THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 20S. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA
COULD SEE THESE CONDITIONS. SO PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN
FIRE WEATHER...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 12Z SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB TROUGH
WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A
SURFACE AND 850MB COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN IOWA. 35 TO NEAR 45 KNOT 850MB WINDS WERE OBSERVED
NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z SUNDAY
RANGED FROM 21C SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AT AMARILLO TO +8C NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT AT NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ARW, NMM AND NAM ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF DRIVING THE RAIN SHOWERS
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, INTO EXTREME NE KS AND KEEPING CENTRAL KANSAS
DRY. THE COLD FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD BE THROUGH DODGE CITY AROUND 9
TO 10 UTC WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE AROUND 8 AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH SURFACE COOLING IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MODELS AND MOS DO INDICATE A FAIR DEGREE OF
VARIANCE IN HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (RUSH CENTER - HAYS
REGION) WHILE MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS THE HRRR SPREADS DRIER AIR THAN
THE NAM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE AS MILD FOLLOWING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DURING THE EARLY
PART OF THE PERIOD, ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
00Z GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A TREND OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A 110
KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NOSING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK BY SOME 5-10
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON ITS HEELS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 18Z MONDAY WILL DECREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 21Z, AND THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY
00Z TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LEES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
RED FLAG CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 83 WESTWARD, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY IN THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN THE DEWPOINTS BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE HRRR WITH A DRIER
HRRR SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 50
PERCENT OF MEETING A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 39 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 70 37 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 70 40 76 46 / 0 10 0 10
LBL 71 40 76 47 / 0 10 0 10
HYS 68 37 76 42 / 10 10 0 0
P28 74 40 74 47 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WELL A VIGOROUS WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SHRTWV
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NW INTO ERNL MN. SOME TSRA HAD ALSO
DEVELOPED NEAR MSP AT THE NOSE OF A STRONG SRLY LOW LEVEL JET. AT
THE SFC...A 996 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE NW
CORNER OF MN. BRISK SRLY WINDS AND WAA PREVAILED FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INTITIAL BAND OF PCPN AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE
SHRTWV WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15-0.40
INCH RANGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE ERN CWA. ALTHOUGH THE
UPSTREAM PCPN IS MAINLY RAIN...FCST SOUNDINGS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL THE PCPN
INTENSITY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO LOWER 900-750 MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
A QUICK INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCH POSSIBLE EAST OF ISQ-
SENEY WHERE THE WINTER WX ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS THE PCPN
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS CLIMB...THE LIGHTER PCPN BY
MID AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER THE WEST
HALF.
IN ADDITION...GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH A 900 MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER AOA 60 KT IS FCST
DURING THE MORNING...LOW LEVEL STABILITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT MIXING TOWARD THE SFC RESULTS IN MORE MODERATE GUSTS IN THE 25-
30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MAY SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...AS THE STRONGER
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS VEERING
TO THE NW WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR E
OF MARQUETTE BTWN 02Z-06Z.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN NW UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 12Z MON. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MON...BUT DRY AIR WILL
KEEP THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE NEARBY LATE MON/MON NIGHT. MODELS
VARY IN TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND EVEN SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS MAKES
FOR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z/29 NAM IS ON THE
FASTER...STRONGER AND FARTHER N END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH MEANS
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS BUT ALSO MORE MIXED PRECIP. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE 00Z/29 ECMWF IS WEAKER AND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...MEANING ONLY MINOR PRECIP AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN A NARROW BAND...BUT NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT WITH WHERE...EXACTLY WHEN AND AMOUNT OF SNOW.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NLY FLOW OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON TUE...MAINLY OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI...BUT ONLY MINOR
AMOUNTS.
MAJOR CHANGES COMING ON WED AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MARCHES ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...PULLING PLENTY OF WARMER AIR N INTO THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS S-SW 925MB WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...CREATING GUSTY
SFC WINDS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER THE W
HALF AND IN THE 40S OVER THE E HALF DOWN WIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW
WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RAIN...WARMER
TEMPS...GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED
SNOWPACK MELTING WED/WED NIGHT...BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RIVERS/STREAMS ARE NOT ELEVATED.
THU THROUGH SAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF WAIT TO MOVE COLDER AIR IN UNTIL A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVES WELL SE OF THE AREA FRI. THE GFS BRINGS A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN ON THU WITH SOME TEMP MODERATE ON SAT AND NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS. WILL LEAN HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE THU
THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL ALSO FOLOW THE FRONT
AS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
SOUTH SOUTHWEST GALES THIS MORNING VEERING TO WEST AND NORTHWEST
GALES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONG TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ007-
014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AT 4 AM...THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN KANDIYOHI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
NOTHING SHOWING UP RECENTLY. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRAY LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
MOST ELSEWHERE.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR. THE RAP AND THE 4KM NMM WRF ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A MIX
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR
THE MOST PART BY MIDDAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
18Z...STRONG CAA SHOULD HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN...BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAY EVEN NEED TO INCREASE THEM FURTHER WITH TIME. A MIX WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
30S IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA...IN THE WARM SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE
SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A VORT MAX WILL
DROP ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NORTHERN WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A NARROW BAND OF RAIN/SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...THEY
SUGGEST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS KEEP THE PRECIP CONFINED TO THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION...WHILE
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE TRACKING THE H50 VORT MAX/SFC LOW FURTHER WEST
INTO THE DLH CWA. PROFILES SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF -FZDZ WITH THIS FAST MOVING WAVE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THE LOW TRACKS INTO ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING....SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NW WI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PCPN WILL BE FOUND NEAR HYR. THE PCPN WILL END BY 21Z
AT HYR WITH THE GUSTY NW WIND ENSUING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WERE OCCURRING. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z/30. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 30 50 31 / 90 0 50 20
INL 45 28 50 30 / 70 0 50 30
BRD 47 31 59 33 / 80 0 30 10
HYR 46 29 52 30 / 90 0 30 20
ASX 47 31 52 29 / 90 10 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED. DWPTS ARE SLOW TO DROP...BUT TIF IS DOWN TO
20F...18 AT VTN AND 19 AT ANW. SO DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER. PKWND WAS 56 MPH AT ORD AT 10 AM.
AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 1017 AM ALONG AND N OF I-80. IT WILL EXPIRE
AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
SWEPT THROUGH AND WE WILL HAVE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR
AWHILE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP SOONER IN
OUR SOUTH BEHIND SOME DECAYING SHOWERS. THEN MOST OF THE AREAS WILL
DROP THIS AFTERNOON...SENDING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN. I
ESSENTIALLY CONVERTED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO A RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPANDED THE TIMES A BIT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
IN...EXPECT WIND TO DECREASE. WENT WITH THE NMM FOR HIGHS TODAY.
KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR DEWPOINTS...I USED
THE RAP AND MIXED DOWN FROM 800 MB FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND USED
STRAIGHT RAP THIS MORNING. USED CONSRAW FOR DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER STILL
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH...BUT
DURING THE EVENING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING
AT MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. BY LATER IN THE EVENING THE CAPE FALLS
OFF AND EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EITHER WAY THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT IT RAIN FOR NOW...BUT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING FREEZING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SNOW MIXED IN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA AND THERE IS WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC. ANY LEFTOVER STRATOCU AROUND 4500 FT
WILL BE GONE SHORTLY. NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL AND THEN BECOME SW UNDER
10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
MON THRU 18Z: VFR WITH SCT ALTOCU AROUND 10K FT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS COULD END UP A PERIOD OF CIGS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WARNING GENERALLY E OF HWY 183. THIS IS THE
SAME AREA AS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS LITTLE
DOUBT THAT MINIMUM RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 9S AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MINIMUM RH DROPPING
BELOW 20% FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS.
DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92 IS THE BEST SHOT AT THIS...BUT DECIDED TO BE MORE LIBERAL
WITH THE RFW AS NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH HAVE POSTED RED FLAG WARNINGS
AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE TECHNICALLY MIGHT NOT MAKE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERION...ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY EXHIBIT
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-018-
019.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/. WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING. THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA. SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION. HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR. AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF
WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY REQUIRE
THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR SOME SITES.
AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.
WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.
BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.
AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
602 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...CORRECTED
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
ELEVATED MARINE LAYER OVERRUNNING A RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LATE
MORNING GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME THINNING OF THIS DECK HAD
OCCURRED AT MEM AND JBR. KEPT TIMING OF LATE MORNING AMD WITH
RESPECT TO INCREASE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
TSRA INITIATION STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...
ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT
QUICK POST FRONTAL RETURNS TO VFR...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT TUP.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER EARLY EVENING POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NEW HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT DEVELOPING
QUICKLY BETWEEN 03-05Z TONIGHT WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI STILL HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM CONCERNS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL
EVENT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN TN/NORTHERN ALABAMA.
CURRENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN OK
THROUGH MO EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON
A MODEST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP COLLOCATED WITH A ZONE
OF BETTER MOISTURE AT 850 MB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT AFTER 7
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN
MARGINAL...CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
AS 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES DO SHOW SOME SUSTAINED
ROTATION...ALBEIT MARGINAL. THAT BEING SAID...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH A FEW ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL QPF WAS
INCREASED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE GIVEN THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND BETTER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MODERATION TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOW TO MID...AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
BUT LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING ITSELF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUSTAINED MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT NOTHING ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME/ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPINGE UPON A WEAKLY
CONVERGENT ZONE LEFT OVER FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH
TIME...THIS BOUNDARY COMPLETELY WASHES OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL
FORCE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. DISAGREEMENT CURRENTLY
EXISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE BUT A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR THE LONG-TERM...ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US COOLING THE MID-SOUTH DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.
BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE