Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
DID A FEW EARLIER UPDATES TO ADJUST POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD AS
REMAINING SHOWERS WEAKENED AND MOVED SE. CURRENTLY ALL EVENING LIGHT
RAIN HAS PUSHED OUT OF AR. HOWEVER UPSTREAM A SHORT WAVE WAS
STARTING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS
IS HEADING SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT AR LATER TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AM WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP. HRRR MODEL ACTUALLY HAS
SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERALL ALL OF AR...AND WILL PROBABLY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ALL OF CWA WITH LATE EVENING UP. ALSO TEMPS
OVERNIGHT TO SATURDAY AM WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME NORTHERN
TO NE LOCATIONS...AND SOME RISK OF RAIN SNOW SLEET MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE WITH
LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE SEVERAL ELEMENTS. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
DISSIPATING OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI. THESE CLOUDS WILL REACH NORTH
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MORNING. EXPECT LOWERING CLOUD
DECKS IN THE MORNING AS WELL...TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE STATE TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS PICKING UP. BEGINNING TO SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX A
BIT ACROSS SW MISSOURI AND SE KANSAS...THEREFORE THINK ALLOWING THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z SEEMS ON TRACK. PRECIP ACROSS THE
STATE HAS BEEN STUBBORN WITH CLOUDS BEING SLOW TO CLEAR. JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH POPS ENTERING THE FORECAST. THE MAV HAS COME IN QUITE A BIT
COLDER WITH THE LATEST MODELS RUNS...WITH THE MET HINTING AT IT AS
WELL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRASTIC. TRENDED THE OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST
MORE TOWARDS THE MET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH CHANCES GENERALLY FOR RAIN...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES FLYING ACROSS THE NORTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE A BIT TRICKIER. MAV
CAME BACK SIX DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE MET
ABOUT TWO DEGREES COOLER. DID TREND MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD...BUT STILL
KEPT READINGS ABOVE FREEZING. AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT AND A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
COME BACK A BIT WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL THINK TEMPS WILL
BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE ANY WINTER WX HAZARDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
OVERALL THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AT BEST WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED BUT NONE OF THEM REALLY PRODUCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT WASHES OUT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THE NEW
FRONT WILL EXIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A TEMPORARY END TO
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL
STALL LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...AND THAT COULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 34 45 34 64 / 20 40 0 10
CAMDEN AR 41 64 45 76 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 34 49 36 65 / 20 30 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 39 60 43 72 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 38 52 40 70 / 10 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 39 57 44 74 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 37 62 42 72 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 49 35 65 / 20 40 0 10
NEWPORT AR 34 45 36 63 / 20 40 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 38 53 42 72 / 10 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 38 57 39 69 / 20 20 0 10
SEARCY AR 34 47 36 67 / 20 40 0 0
STUTTGART AR 37 49 40 69 / 10 30 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHED FROM MENA TO BATESVILLE AS OF 05Z...BUT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 8 HRS OR SO.
EXPECT -TSRA TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES STARTING AROUND
07Z FOR KHOT AND KADF...AND MORE TOWARDS 08Z-09Z AT KPBF AND KLLQ.
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AND CORRESPONDING LOW CIGS/VSBY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH PREVAILING -SHRA LASTING THROUGH MID
MORNING OR SO BEFORE RAINFALL FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS UP NORTH AND LIKELY
TO 2500 FT AGL OR LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
ALL SITES. HAVE NORTHERLY GUSTS TO AT LEAST 20KT AT ALL SITES BUT
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLIT AFTER
DAYBREAK.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FORT SMITH
TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS
POINT...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. LATEST
RUNS OF HRRR HAS A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND FOLLOWING CLOSE TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THESE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
HIGH LCL VALUES. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS DO SUGGEST THESE MAY FALL
A BIT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
00Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY OUTRACES THE STORMS. CONTINUES TO
LOOK THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED NW OF
THE CWA.
LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH UPPER ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH...SOME SMALL
CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER...THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LESSEN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FEATURES IN EXPECTED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 56 36 54 35 / 40 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 61 42 62 42 / 50 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 55 34 53 33 / 30 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 39 60 40 / 30 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 39 57 39 / 40 10 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 61 37 60 40 / 70 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 62 35 61 37 / 30 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 57 35 54 34 / 30 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 57 34 54 35 / 60 10 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 58 40 56 38 / 60 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 37 58 38 / 30 10 20 20
SEARCY AR 57 36 56 35 / 50 10 20 20
STUTTGART AR 57 39 55 37 / 60 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE IN PHOENIX THIS
AFTERNOON REACHED 95 DEGREES...ONLY 3 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD FOR
THE DATE. IN YUMA...THE HIGH REACHED 96 DEGREES FALLING SHORT OF THE
RECORD HIGH OF 100 DEGREES. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CENTER
OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AZ. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SHORT-
TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE LATEST (12Z) MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OUR CURRENT HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAINING
AROUND 585DM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 19-22C RANGE EACH
DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO
NORMAL...WITH 50S LIKELY AT MANY OF THE RURAL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LOW DEWPOINTS (IN THE TEENS AND 20S)
WILL MAKE THESE LOWS FEEL EVEN COOLER.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THE DRIER/WEAKER EURO/GEM SOLN CONCERNING THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NORTHERN SONORA ON MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE AZ...WITH JUST A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT NOW APPEARS
THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AOA 600MB...WITH PWATS
REMAINING AOB 0.60 INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS STAYING
AOB 4 G/KG. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER MOST OF CWA WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
A BIT...AND RAISE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A FLAT ZONAL ONE OVER OUR REGION...WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS STAYING MAINLY IN A 573-579DM RANGE AND 850MB TEMPS IN A 16-
19C RANGE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...HIGHS EACH DAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SOME INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...IF THE EURO SOLN PROVES TO BE
CORRECT...WHICH TRYS TO PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG TROF INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU AND FRI.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...
CITY MARCH 28 MARCH 29
---- -------- --------
PHOENIX 95 IN 1986 95 IN 1971
YUMA 97 IN 1893 100 IN 1879
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FOR THE MOST PART FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT QUITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IS
LIKELY. NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE DESERTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DESERTS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 6-11
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERALL...BUT
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 MPH. NO BIG CONCERNS AS FAR AS MEETING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SCREEN IS MOSTLY CLEAR. JUST SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER SOUTHERN
RI AND ANOTHER AREA STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET. ALSO SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
ADIRONDACKS.
WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ECHOES AT 10 PM...AND BASED ON 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR SUGGESTS ROUGHLY 08Z TO 12Z WITH FOCUS
ON RI AND EASTERN CT WITH EXPANSION INTO MASS FROM WORCESTER EAST
TO BOSTON AND TAUNTON BY 12Z. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE THE CENTRAL
HILLS FROM WORCESTER TO NORTHEAST CT.
BASED ON THIS WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVERALL AND MOST PLACES AFTER 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION.
OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS FROM SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.
BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N 06-08Z. POCKETS OF
IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER 08Z...LOWEST
ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI/NORTHEAST CT. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
3 AM.
SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM A GRAY DAMP DAY CONTINUES. SHOWERS WERE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTHWEST OF I-88 AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. THERE WERE EVEN CLOUD TO CLOUD
LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST TO WEST OF SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AS THE
SHOWALTER INDEX WAS 0 OR LESS FROM I-88 SOUTHWARD.
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN EVERYWHERE AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WAS WORKING INTO SW PA...ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NW NY. AS THESE BOTH COME CLOSER TO OUR
REGION...RAIN WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD HEAVY.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINE TUNED POPS BASED ON RADARS...LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. OUR AREA WILL NEVER GET INTO THE REALLY
WARM AIR THAT WAS WORKING UP THE DELMARVA PENNISULA TOWARD NEW
JERSEY. THAT WARM AIR WILL PROBABLY END UP SHORT OF NYC LET ALONE
OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGE.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM
CNY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWED DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL START FALLING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULD BE MILDER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE TEMPS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 50. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OCCURRING JUST ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
/SHOWALTER VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO/ THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ACROSS ULSTER....DUTCHESS...OR LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL BE STARTING TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CANADA.
ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENT TODAY. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION ON HOW
WE EXPECT TODAY/S RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A FAIRLY PERSISTENT MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE W/NW FLOW BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION.
SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND CLOSES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE HERE.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE -4C TO -7C RANGE.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 30S OVER
THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY KICK OFF SOME
SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY EVEN REACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON. THE PCPN WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DUE TO S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SEASONABLE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME W/NW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SRN
GREENS AND SRN DACKS. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO L30S IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MAY DIVE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND INTO PA LATE TUE PM INTO TUE NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MISSING MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE GFS WOULD
HAVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH SOME ISOLD-SCT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WPC IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE WENT MAINLY DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH. THE GFS HAS
H850 TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -13C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40 OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER
THE SRN DACK PARK.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL START THE DAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER LIKE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO START APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
THERE MAY BE EVEN BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR KALB/KPOU/KPSF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS...THEY WILL SWITCH
TO N-NW BY THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
STEADY RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND END
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE INITIALLY TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY VFR. IT MAY TAKE THE
LONGEST TO RETURN TO VFR AT KPSF/KPOU...WHERE THE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST...AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE N-NW AT AROUND 5 KTS.
ON FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR...WITH CONTINUED
BKN CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
WINDS WILL BE W-NW AT 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE
-SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF
THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SERFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERF FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM A GRAY DAMP DAY CONTINUES. SHOWERS WERE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTHWEST OF I-88 AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. THERE WERE EVEN CLOUD TO CLOUD
LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST TO WEST OF SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AS THE
SHOWALTER INDEX WAS 0 OR LESS FROM I-88 SOUTHWARD.
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN EVERYWHERE AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE
REST OF TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WAS WORKING INTO SW PA...ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NW NY. AS THESE BOTH COME CLOSER TO OUR
REGION...RAIN WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH. SOME OF
THE RAIN COULD HEAVY.
FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST FINE TUNED POPS BASED ON RADARS...LEAVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE. OUR AREA WILL NEVER GET INTO THE REALLY
WARM AIR THAT WAS WORKING UP THE DELMARVA PENNISULA TOWARD NEW
JERSEY. THAT WARM AIR WILL PROBABLY END UP SHORT OF NYC LET ALONE
OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGE.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM
CNY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWED DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL START FALLING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULD BE MILDER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE TEMPS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 50. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OCCURRING JUST ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
/SHOWALTER VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO/ THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ACROSS ULSTER....DUTCHESS...OR LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL BE STARTING TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CANADA.
ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENT TODAY. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION ON HOW
WE EXPECT TODAY/S RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A FAIRLY PERSISTENT MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE W/NW FLOW BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION.
SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND CLOSES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE HERE.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE -4C TO -7C RANGE.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 30S OVER
THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY KICK OFF SOME
SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY EVEN REACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON. THE PCPN WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DUE TO S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SEASONABLE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME W/NW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SRN
GREENS AND SRN DACKS. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO L30S IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MAY DIVE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND INTO PA LATE TUE PM INTO TUE NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MISSING MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE GFS WOULD
HAVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH SOME ISOLD-SCT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WPC IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE WENT MAINLY DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH. THE GFS HAS
H850 TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -13C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40 OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER
THE SRN DACK PARK.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL START THE DAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER LIKE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO START APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL NY
AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG IT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND MIST/FOG HAS FORMED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THE
SITES...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/HIGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE
RAINFALL AT 18Z. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
RAIN MOVES BACK IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN IN
TERMS OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MELTING SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
FOG POTENTIAL. THE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IFR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LIFR LEVELS AT KPSF AFTER 00Z/FRI.
THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AS THE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH
BTW 03Z-05Z...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU...BUT THE CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR LEVELS AT ALL THE SITES.
EXPECT MAINLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT 7 KTS OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NE TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF
THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SERFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERF FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV/11/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
835 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 835 AM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE LACK OF PRECIP...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. WITH THE MOIST AREA AND TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER A SNOWPACK...THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE THE CLOUD COVER...SUCH AS IN
THE SRN GREENS...CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS...ARE ACTUALLY SEEING
SOME SUNSHINE...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000
FEET. THESE BREAKS WILL END BY LATER THIS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
MORNING.
A STORM SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER TODAY. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT RAIN WILL
RAPIDLY ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM CNY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS TOWARDS OUR REGION. DUE TO THE BROAD SW FLOW IN PLACE...THE
RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE IMPACTING AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE STEADY...AND MAY BE LOCALLY
MODERATE AT TIMES.
THROUGH THE AFTN...STEADY RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWED DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL START FALLING
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULD BE MILDER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE TEMPS
MAY GET CLOSE TO 50. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE OCCURRING JUST ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
/SHOWALTER VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO/ THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER ACROSS ULSTER....DUTCHESS...OR LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. AT
THE SAME TIME...RAIN WILL BE STARTING TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CANADA.
ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENT TODAY. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION ON HOW
WE EXPECT TODAY/S RAINFALL TO IMPACT OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
SWINGS THROUGH THE FA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A FAIRLY PERSISTENT MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THE W/NW FLOW BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION.
SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND CLOSES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
THERE WAS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE HERE.
H850 TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE -4C TO -7C RANGE.
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 30S OVER
THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE ONTARIO...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER
TYPE LOW TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.
INITIALLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY KICK OFF SOME
SCT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
MAY EVEN REACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON. THE PCPN WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DUE TO S TO SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT SEASONABLE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND
30F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME W/NW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SRN
GREENS AND SRN DACKS. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMS LOOK VERY LIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO L30S IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MAY DIVE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND INTO PA LATE TUE PM INTO TUE NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF MISSING MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THE GFS WOULD
HAVE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH SOME ISOLD-SCT
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WPC IS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE WENT MAINLY DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH. THE GFS HAS
H850 TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -13C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL
RUN 5 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40 OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER
THE SRN DACK PARK.
WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL START THE DAY...AND THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER LIKE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT
IN THE FCST PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO START APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER EAST CENTRAL NY
AND NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG IT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE S/SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW STRATUS AND MIST/FOG HAS FORMED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THE
SITES...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 15Z. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/HIGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE
RAINFALL AT 18Z. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS THE
RAIN MOVES BACK IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN IN
TERMS OF CIGS AND VSBYS. THE MELTING SNOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
FOG POTENTIAL. THE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT IFR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LIFR LEVELS AT KPSF AFTER 00Z/FRI.
THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH RAIN AND SNOW AS THE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH
BTWN 03Z-05Z...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU...BUT THE CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR LEVELS AT ALL THE SITES.
EXPECT MAINLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT 7 KTS OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NE TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TONIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF
THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY.
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND SUPPORTING A
POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE UVM INDUCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING 250 HPA JET STREAK COUPLED WITH A
850 HPA 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND RIBBON OF PWATS APPROACHING
1.50 INCHES WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME AS
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DISRUPT
THE NECESSARY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT WHEN
FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE.
BOTH THE 26/12Z GFS AND NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF HAVE
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WHERE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY BLEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PER LATEST KTLH/KVAX RADAR TRENDS. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT
EVEN THIS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO QUICK IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. MAXIMUM POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT AT THE COAST WITH 50-60 PERCENT INLAND.
LOWS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
STEADILY DESCENDING FROM THE UPSTATE REGION. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LENDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA...AND DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...PREFER TO
INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL ADVERTISE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
TRI COUNTY AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A COOLING TREND INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW
70S SOUTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE COASTLINE AND
PROCEED INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL MERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RATHER SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD THUS SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL CONSIDERING SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND
DECENT LARGE SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO HIGH OVERNIGHT...AND GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO WET...TO SUPPORT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITHIN BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE STALLED UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REACH THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR FAR INLAND COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 32
DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF
NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS CAN DIMINISH MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COLDER AND
FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY DESCEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO...AND THUS DESPITE
ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER ACCOMPANIES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEA FOG...TRICKY SEA FOG FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WHICH IS DIMINISHING PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES ACROSS THE CORE OF THE
COLDER SHELF WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
ACROSS BOTH GEORGIA MARINE ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF BACKING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...SO
WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG LINGERS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
MOST OF THE FOG ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATER...OR
AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF IT...WILL LIKELY LIFT OR THIN OUT AS
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK WITH THE STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE RAP AND H3R VSBY
PROGS WHICH HAVE DONE QUITE WELL SO FAR TODAY.
WILL TAKE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL MARINE ZONES...BUT CANCEL IT FOR THE GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES. ATTM IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR THE FOG TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE
MAIN HARBOR ITSELF...BUT WILL MORE LIKELY REMAIN JUST AT THE
HARBOR ENTRANCE AROUND FORT SUMTER. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE HARBOR ATTM. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAGS WILL BE
RAISED FOR THESE TWO ZONES WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE A BIT LESS FOR THE REMAINING
MARINE ZONES WITH SEAS ONLY REACHING 3-5 FT WITH WINDS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS PEAKING AT 6
FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS OFFSHORE GEORGIA MARINE
ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE THUS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
MARINE ZONES. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SEA FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE
CHARLESTON WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...YET PERSIST BEYOND 20 NM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS....ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SUPPORT A SURGE IN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 3 TO 5 FT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE
FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
LOCALLY DENSE SEA FOG WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM
EDISTO BEACH NORTHEAST ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE FOG BANK
WILL PENETRATE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
WATCHED.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS MINIMAL WITH MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND H3R RUNS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRAW CLOSER. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOP ALONG THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ITSELF WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED... BUT
THE OVERALL RISK FOR THIS IS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LARGE SCALE LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THERE MIGHT STILL
BE SOME SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY UNTIL WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW
60 DEGREES.
FRIDAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH SOME PHASING OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW TIER DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...MOST NOTABLY A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND A 130-150 UPPER JET. THESE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS PWATS ARE AS MUCH AS 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST 60-70 POPS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 50-
60 KT OF BULK SHEAR AND SBCAPES THAT COULD BE AS GREAT AS 300-500
J/KG THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING...THEN TAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ASSIST IN NEGATING
THE LACK OF INSOLATION...BUT FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN IT WILL BE TODAY. IN FACT AS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SLOW FALL TO SOME OF OUR
TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-08Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN...AS
PER SOUNDING PROFILES IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE THE
COLD AIR IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE DEPARTING MOISTURE AND IT WILL
ARRIVE TOO LATE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID. BUT DUE TO
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR MINUS
27C...THERE APPEARS TO BE A RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL. 850
MB TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF
LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH WIND
AND THE GROUNDS ARE TOO WET FOR ANY FROST.
SATURDAY...THE LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST/NW. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP NW
FLOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT
INSOLATION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WE/LL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH AN MORE THAN 55-60F.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL PULL THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND USHER IN A 1033 ARCTIC HIGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
PENETRATING INTO THE BULK OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT. THERE LOOKS TO
BE TOO MUCH MIXING TO PREVENT A HARD FREEZE...BUT A LIGHT FREEZE IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW TIER. IF WINDS DO DROP OFF
ENOUGH THEN TEMPS COULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN 30-32F IN THESE SECTIONS
AND FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN IN MANY OTHER COMMUNITIES SOUTH
AND EAST.
SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND GIVES WAY TO SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISING HEIGHTS...AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
THE AIR MASS MODIFYING...TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z. THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN LATER THAN THAT.
WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING 5SM -SHRA FROM 10Z ON AT BOTH TERMINALS.
WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR BRIEF SHOWERS AT KSAV FROM ROUGHLY
23-01Z AS HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THAT AREA ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADV NORTHEAST TO THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER PER SATELLITE TRENDS
AND WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS.
TODAY...WEBCAMS OFF HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH SUGGEST THE SEA
FOG HAS LIFTED SOME OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO A MOVE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE MORNING
LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND A SEA BREEZE INITIATES. THIS WILL
RETURN THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE FAVORABLE GEOMETRY FOR SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH. THE FOG COULD EXPAND
INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WITH LATER FORECAST CYCLES.
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CREATING A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA FOG. WINDS/SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT BEYOND 20 NM.
FRIDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT AND CYCLONIC SW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT DOESN/T MOVE THROUGH AFTER
1 OR 2 PM. WARM ADVECTION WILL RESTRICT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...BUT
GIVEN GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 30 KT OR SO THIS WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AMZ374 WATERS FOR GUSTS UP NEAR 25
KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT. WE STILL MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS AMZ350...BUT FOR NOW THOSE WATERS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
SCOURS THINGS OUT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE T-STORMS...MOST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A MIXTURE OF COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS NW WINDS APPROACH 20-25 KT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SOUTH/SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY BENEATH ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE ATOP THE WATERS BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND LESS THAN 3-5 FOOT SEAS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-354.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
957 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND SWEEPING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE
FREEZE FOR SOME INLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO THIN AND BREAK UP PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS INCREASED
INSOLATION COUPLED WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 12C WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 80-82F MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS...
WHICH WILL RETURN THE SKY CHARACTER BACK TO PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS MINIMAL WITH MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND H3R RUNS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRAW CLOSER. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOP ALONG THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ITSELF WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED... BUT
THE OVERALL RISK FOR THIS IS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY A MENTIONABLE
POP ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND LARGE SCALE LIFT/DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET/DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THERE MIGHT STILL
BE SOME SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY UNTIL WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW
60 DEGREES.
FRIDAY...A DEEPENING AND AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH SOME PHASING OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ANOTHER AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES FROM
THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
TRANSITION WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS ALOFT TO STEADILY FALL AND WILL SHOVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NW TIER DURING THE MID-LATE
MORNING...TOWARD OUR COASTAL CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC THEREAFTER. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE...MOST NOTABLY A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND A 130-150 UPPER JET. THESE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS PWATS ARE AS MUCH AS 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT
LEAST 60-70 POPS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 50-
60 KT OF BULK SHEAR AND SBCAPES THAT COULD BE AS GREAT AS 300-500
J/KG THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING...THEN TAIL OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ASSIST IN NEGATING
THE LACK OF INSOLATION...BUT FRIDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN IT WILL BE TODAY. IN FACT AS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME SLOW FALL TO SOME OF OUR
TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE DECK. A POTENT SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND 05-08Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30 POPS AND
MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN...AS
PER SOUNDING PROFILES IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE THE
COLD AIR IS TRYING TO CATCH UP TO THE DEPARTING MOISTURE AND IT WILL
ARRIVE TOO LATE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID. BUT DUE TO
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE NEAR MINUS
27C...THERE APPEARS TO BE A RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL OR SOFT HAIL. 850
MB TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO -3C SOUTH AND -6C NORTH...SUPPORTIVE OF
LOWEST TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH WIND
AND THE GROUNDS ARE TOO WET FOR ANY FROST.
SATURDAY...THE LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST/NW. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP NW
FLOW WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT
INSOLATION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WE/LL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH AN MORE THAN 55-60F.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL PULL THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND USHER IN A 1033 ARCTIC HIGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
PENETRATING INTO THE BULK OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT. THERE LOOKS TO
BE TOO MUCH MIXING TO PREVENT A HARD FREEZE...BUT A LIGHT FREEZE IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW TIER. IF WINDS DO DROP OFF
ENOUGH THEN TEMPS COULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN 30-32F IN THESE SECTIONS
AND FROST WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN IN MANY OTHER COMMUNITIES SOUTH
AND EAST.
SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND GIVES WAY TO SHORT WAVE
RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISING HEIGHTS...AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
THE AIR MASS MODIFYING...TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST ZONES...ACCOMPANYING ONLY BY MODEST MOISTURE AND JUST
LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND GIVES WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
EVEN THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO
TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z WILL GIVE WAY TO A RETURN
OF VFR WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS INVERSION WEAKENS AND
LIFTS HIGHER. SOUTH/SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
UNSEASONABLY TEMPS PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE
ENHANCEMENT ALSO OCCURS FROM SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. CONDITIONS AT
SOME POINT TONIGHT MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE GULF AND THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NW. UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER
DEFINED WE HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH THE OPTION FOR ADJUSTMENTS AT A LATER TIME.
KSAV...A SHARP INVERSION WILL KEEP THE AIRFIELD LOCKED IN WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS AND NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY 15Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND MOISTURE
SCOURS OUT. GUSTY SOUTH/SW WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
ADDITIONAL IMPETUS FROM THE SEA BREEZE. CONDITIONS AT
SOME POINT TONIGHT MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE GULF AND THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NW. UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE BETTER
DEFINED WE HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...WITH FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR WEATHER WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...WEBCAMS OFF HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH SUGGEST THE SEA
FOG HAS LIFTED SOME OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO A MOVE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE MORNING
LAND BREEZE DISSIPATES AND A SEA BREEZE INITIATES. THIS WILL
RETURN THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE FAVORABLE GEOMETRY FOR SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH. THE FOG COULD EXPAND
INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WITH LATER FORECAST CYCLES.
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CREATING A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA FOG. WINDS/SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT BEYOND 20 NM.
FRIDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT AND CYCLONIC SW PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT DOESN/T MOVE THROUGH AFTER
1 OR 2 PM. WARM ADVECTION WILL RESTRICT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING...BUT
GIVEN GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 30 KT OR SO THIS WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AMZ374 WATERS FOR GUSTS UP NEAR 25
KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT. WE STILL MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS AMZ350...BUT FOR NOW THOSE WATERS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY ADVISORY CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
SCOURS THINGS OUT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE T-STORMS...MOST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A MIXTURE OF COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AS NW WINDS APPROACH 20-25 KT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SOUTH/SE OF NEW ENGLAND.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NW AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT LIKELY BENEATH ANY ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE ATOP THE WATERS BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN 15 OR 20 KT FOR
WINDS AND LESS THAN 3-5 FOOT SEAS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ374.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS
STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL
CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND
WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS
SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE
BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.
DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN
PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A
MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO
ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN
KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY
AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING FAR EASTERN KY...BRINGING
WITH IT A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSYM...KSME AND KLOZ WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJKL AND KSJS
OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL LINE...WINDS
ARE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NW...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO
WORK IN. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NRLY. STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE INTO THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE BY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000FT. BY
TOMORROW MORNING...RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE...THOUGH MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A
LAYER OF HIGH MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS
STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL
CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND
WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS
SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE
BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.
DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE
REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING FAR EASTERN KY...BRINGING
WITH IT A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSYM...KSME AND KLOZ WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJKL AND KSJS
OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL LINE...WINDS
ARE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NW...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO
WORK IN. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NRLY. STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE INTO THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE BY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000FT. BY
TOMORROW MORNING...RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE...THOUGH MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A
LAYER OF HIGH MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS
STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL
CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND
WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS
SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE
BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.
DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE
REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z AS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO
IFR ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
CEILINGS RAISING UP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BETWEEN 4 AND 10Z
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.
DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE
REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR THROUGH 16Z AS CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO
IFR ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
CEILINGS RAISING UP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BETWEEN 4 AND 10Z
FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.
DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. AS WE COOL OFF...WOULD EXPECT A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE REALLY DRY OUT
IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SOUNDINGS TRY TO AT
LEAST HOLD ON TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH H850 SUB MINUS 10 IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AIR MASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30 TO LOWER 40S MOST SPOTS.
THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST NIGHT FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
FROST. RIGHT NOW IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THE HIGH ALIGNS ACROSS THE
REGION TO WHERE THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR COOLING WILL BE. THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST FOR SUNDAY USHERING IN RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS VERSUS OTHER GUIDANCE...EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINING
HERE. THE GFS IS AGAIN QUICKER...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
INFLUENCE VERSUS THE ECMWF NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BEING THE BIGGER
INFLUENCE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS...DID STICK
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE THE BEST BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z...WITH JUST SOME CU
AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL FROM TIME TO TIME. CONVECTION WILL THEN
THREATEN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z...WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TOWARDS DAWN AND ESPECIALLY BY MID-
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
EXTENDED THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR IRON COUNTY UNTIL 05Z FRI AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MQT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE WINDS
STAY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THE
WINDS. CURRENT WEBCAMS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL
COMING DOWN.
ALSO...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS OF 08Z/3AM CDT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THE
WINDOW FOR THE BEST LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CLOSING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE DECIDED TO
DECREASE SNOW TOTALS BY A BIT. WILL LIKELY LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY RUN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SINCE REVISED
LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE
ANOTHER PULSE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A LONGER FETCH...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.
ADDED SOME GENEROUS FLURRIES INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BASED
OFF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...BUT
GENERALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
ELSEWHERE TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD. NEAR CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD.
FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY BUT
OTHERWISE SUNNY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WEAK
WINDS. TEMPERATURES COOL...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD A
WESTERN RIDGE PERSISTING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND.
A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WE DID INCREASE POPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY HAVE TO FURTHER. A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 53.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AND INITIALLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH.
A CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 13 30 14 / 10 0 0 10
INL 26 7 35 14 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 34 13 36 18 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 10 35 11 / 30 10 0 0
ASX 28 15 30 10 / 30 40 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ004.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
EXTENDED THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR IRON COUNTY UNTIL 05Z FRI AFTER
COORDINATION WITH MQT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE WINDS
STAY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THE
WINDS. CURRENT WEBCAMS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL
COMING DOWN.
ALSO...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND CURRENT OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS OF 08Z/3AM CDT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THE
WINDOW FOR THE BEST LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CLOSING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE DECIDED TO
DECREASE SNOW TOTALS BY A BIT. WILL LIKELY LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY RUN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SINCE REVISED
LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE
ANOTHER PULSE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A LONGER FETCH...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.
ADDED SOME GENEROUS FLURRIES INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BASED
OFF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...BUT
GENERALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
ELSEWHERE TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD. NEAR CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD.
FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY BUT
OTHERWISE SUNNY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WEAK
WINDS. TEMPERATURES COOL...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID 20S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD A
WESTERN RIDGE PERSISTING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND.
A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WE DID INCREASE POPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY HAVE TO FURTHER. A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 53.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AND INITIALLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. CLEARING WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. OVERALL...THE
TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS KHYR DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES.
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 13 30 14 / 10 0 0 10
INL 26 7 35 14 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 34 13 36 18 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 31 10 35 11 / 30 10 0 0
ASX 28 15 30 10 / 30 40 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
145>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...LARGE EXPANSE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST EFFECTIVELY SERVING TO CUT OFF NORTHERLY ADVECTION OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO NW
LA AT THE MOMENT. OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER...ONLY A BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HRRR MODEL IS INDICATING A NARROW WINDOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROBUST
CONVECTION OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AGREE THAT SE PORTIONS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BELIEVE HRRR
SOLUTION MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. HRRR DID NOT INITIALIZE THE
COASTAL CONVECTION VERY WELL AND AS A RESULT LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING
THE ADVANCEMENT OF RICH MOISTURE INLAND./26/
&&
.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HBG/MEI WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE CONTINUED. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BECOME
VFR BY 16- 17Z...BUT A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA WITH
SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15G20KT OUT OF NORTHWEST
AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARKS. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FOR TODAY AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS IN ITS
WAKE. WITH SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES AND
SREF PROBS SHOWS SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING. THE MAIN FORCING DYNAMICS
WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE TIME THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ARKLAMISS TODAY. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED FORCING HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE RAINS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION UNTIL THE 03Z. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A HALF TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO HIRES
GUIDANCE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.3 INCHES. AFTER 03Z ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND END PRIOR TO DAWN FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY UNDER FULL
INSOLATION IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL./17/
LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ADVERTISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ENSUE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK...THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ALL THE ABOVE WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES LINGERING IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
COME PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 39 59 40 / 67 37 6 2
MERIDIAN 75 41 60 39 / 51 55 9 1
VICKSBURG 71 39 61 42 / 73 25 3 2
HATTIESBURG 74 44 63 42 / 52 41 6 2
NATCHEZ 72 41 63 43 / 65 25 4 2
GREENVILLE 65 38 58 40 / 66 17 7 2
GREENWOOD 66 35 56 38 / 60 27 7 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. WE STILL
HAVE AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER US THAT IS SLOWLY BECOMING
MORE ANTI CYCLONIC. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE BIG HORNS
REGION. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST BUT IT IS
DIRTY...WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. WEAK ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A 140KT H3 JET OVER EASTERN MT IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER...WHICH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING HOURS. NW FLOW IS ALSO
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN UPSLOPE AREAS S/SE
OF BILLINGS AND OVER THE MTNS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...AREAS OF LIGHT
PCPN IMPACT WESTERN MT AS WELL. OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDY SKIES
PERSIST TODAY DESPITE THE SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
BILLINGS...AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
PCPN AGAIN NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER...IE NEAR AND EAST OF SFC TROF.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG
OUR FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HIGHLIGHTS
BUT BIG TIMBER HAS BEEN GUSTING INTO THE 40S ALREADY. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS SOME FROM BIG TIMBER TO 3HT AS THESE AREAS ARE FAVORED
IN A NW FLOW CHINOOK. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
TODAY IN WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORDS AT LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS ON FRIDAY.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE AMOUNT OF SPLITTING THAT THIS
ENERGY WILL UNDERGO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH
THE WAVE...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CONTINUING WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN
SPLIT AND IS THUS FASTER. GIVEN THIS FEATURE IS IN A DATA VOID
AREA OVER THE PACIFIC AM NOT SURE WHICH SCENARIO IS PREFERRED SO
WILL STAY WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL EXPECT A FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLOWER TIMING OF THIS FRONT WOULD YIELD WARMER
PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TSTMS...AS THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO. MAIN ISSUES ON
SATURDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND FIRE WEATHER AND WIND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...LOW RHS...STRONG
WINDS AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. ALL
MODELS SHOWING NEAR 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
AN AFTERNOON ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN PARTS. STRONG W-NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS OUR PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STRESS THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY HERE.
ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MONITOR THE FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED.
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEHIND SATURDAYS SYSTEM FOR DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT VIGOROUS
SYSTEM TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG PRECIP MAKER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD BE
ANOTHER WIND PRODUCER. BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...AN OVERALL
PRGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH MUCH LESS AMPLIFICATION.
THIS WILL PUSH SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW AND KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE 50S. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE...AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND
WITH SOME VIRGA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 045/073 048/073 040/065 041/070 045/065 038/058
1/E 00/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 03/W 22/W
LVM 065 044/073 047/067 037/065 040/068 042/058 031/055
1/N 00/N 03/W 21/B 00/U 14/W 22/W
HDN 065 038/075 042/076 035/066 035/072 039/068 036/059
2/W 00/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 03/W 22/W
MLS 059 041/071 044/074 035/063 037/069 038/067 037/057
1/E 10/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 02/W 22/W
4BQ 059 039/071 040/077 036/064 036/070 039/069 035/058
2/W 20/B 03/W 30/B 00/U 01/B 21/N
BHK 052 035/065 039/073 035/061 033/066 037/066 035/054
1/M 30/E 02/W 30/U 00/U 02/W 31/N
SHR 060 038/070 039/077 035/065 035/070 038/069 034/055
2/W 10/B 03/W 31/B 00/B 02/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
310 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST BUT IT IS
DIRTY...WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. WEAK ENERGY DROPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A 140KT H3 JET OVER EASTERN MT IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER...WHICH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA OVER THE COMING HOURS. NW FLOW IS ALSO
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN UPSLOPE AREAS S/SE
OF BILLINGS AND OVER THE MTNS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...AREAS OF LIGHT
PCPN IMPACT WESTERN MT AS WELL. OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDY SKIES
PERSIST TODAY DESPITE THE SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
BILLINGS...AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
PCPN AGAIN NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER...IE NEAR AND EAST OF SFC TROF.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS WILL PERSIST FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG
OUR FOOTHILLS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY HIGHLIGHTS
BUT BIG TIMBER HAS BEEN GUSTING INTO THE 40S ALREADY. HAVE RAISED
WIND SPEEDS SOME FROM BIG TIMBER TO 3HT AS THESE AREAS ARE FAVORED
IN A NW FLOW CHINOOK. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
TODAY IN WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS...AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL APPROACH RECORDS AT LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS ON FRIDAY.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE AMOUNT OF SPLITTING THAT THIS
ENERGY WILL UNDERGO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH
THE WAVE...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CONTINUING WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN
SPLIT AND IS THUS FASTER. GIVEN THIS FEATURE IS IN A DATA VOID
AREA OVER THE PACIFIC AM NOT SURE WHICH SCENARIO IS PREFERRED SO
WILL STAY WITH A COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL EXPECT A FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLOWER TIMING OF THIS FRONT WOULD YIELD WARMER
PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TSTMS...AS THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO. MAIN ISSUES ON
SATURDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND FIRE WEATHER AND WIND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS...LOW RHS...STRONG
WINDS AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. ALL
MODELS SHOWING NEAR 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
AN AFTERNOON ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE COULD PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR WESTERN PARTS. STRONG W-NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS OUR PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STRESS THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTY HERE.
ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND MONITOR THE FORECAST.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED.
UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEHIND SATURDAYS SYSTEM FOR DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT VIGOROUS
SYSTEM TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG PRECIP MAKER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT COULD BE
ANOTHER WIND PRODUCER. BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...AN OVERALL
PRGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH MUCH LESS AMPLIFICATION.
THIS WILL PUSH SEVERAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE FLOW AND KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS INTO THE 50S. FRIEDERS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FOR LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. FRIEDERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 045/073 048/073 040/065 041/070 045/065 038/058
1/E 00/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 03/W 22/W
LVM 064 044/073 047/067 037/065 040/068 042/058 031/055
1/N 00/N 03/W 21/B 00/U 14/W 22/W
HDN 064 038/075 042/076 035/066 035/072 039/068 036/059
1/E 00/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 03/W 22/W
MLS 058 041/071 044/074 035/063 037/069 038/067 037/057
1/E 10/B 03/W 20/B 00/U 02/W 22/W
4BQ 058 039/071 040/077 036/064 036/070 039/069 035/058
2/W 20/B 03/W 30/B 00/U 01/B 21/N
BHK 050 035/065 039/073 035/061 033/066 037/066 035/054
2/W 30/E 02/W 30/U 00/U 02/W 31/N
SHR 059 038/070 039/077 035/065 035/070 038/069 034/055
2/W 10/B 03/W 31/B 00/B 02/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.
A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.
A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH KVTN-KANW-KONL THIS MORNING AND
AFTN. THE SREF SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS WITH THE RAIN AND LOCAL IFR IN
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW IS SUGGESTED ACROSS
WRN NEB...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS KOGA/KLBF...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
AND LOW CIGS SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
OVERNIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 83 BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.
RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 PM UPDATE...
A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.
RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED NEWEST WPC GUIDANCE. ONLY ADDITION TO
DISCUSSION BELOW IS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT WED NGT
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. MORE MIXED PRECIP BUT MOST
LOCATIONS RAIN TO SNOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. COOLER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
PRIMARILY DRY UNDER BRIEF SFC RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
THROUGH EASTERN PA INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE NYS
TERMINALS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WIDESPREAD IFR/BELOW ALT MIN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NYS TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT, WEAK MIXING AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY LOW MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT FOR IFR CIGS AT KITH/KBGM. ON FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. AT KAVP, MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. OVERNIGHT LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY WHICH WILL START AS RAIN BUT MIX WITH WET SNOW AS COOLER
AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINTER-LIKE WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE. DESPITE THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT...THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE BENEATH 2K FT
WHICH IS PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
ICE ON LAKE ERIE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK IN SPOTS AS
DEPICTED BY THE HRRR AND NAM BUFKIT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. IF SKIES
CLEAR LONG ENOUGH...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERY SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S LATE TONIGHT.
18-21Z NAM/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE COOLING
TREND...WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MIX
WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY START AS
RAIN WITH A CONSENSUS QPF OF ABOUT A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL MIX IN FIRST IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO THE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT A WET INCH OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER SNOWS MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES OR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE CONCERN DURING THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN
FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING...THERE IS NOW A SUGGESTION
BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SUPPORT SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST BY
THE START OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A VERY WET STORM SYSTEM. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...TAKING WITH IT THE DEEP LIFT
THAT WAS SUPPLIED BY A PAIR OF 150KT H25 JETLETS AND STRONG H925-70
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOUND WITHIN 100 MILES OR SO NORTH OF THE SFC
LOW TRACK. REMOVING THIS LIFT WHILE INTRODUCING MID LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TAPERING OFF
TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL QPF
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO A COUPLE TENTHS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE 12 HOUR EVENT WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS ON SOME
TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THE THREE MAIN WATERWAYS IN THE BUFFALO
AREA (CAZENOVIA, CAYUGA, BUFFALO CREEKS). FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
ON FRIDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STEADIER SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
FAVORABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPE REGIME. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE A SOLID 10
DEG LOWER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS MAX TEMPS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING.
THE UPSLOPE...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DELAY ANY REAL CLEARING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...MAINLY WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF
ONTARIO. EVEN SO...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED IN TENTHS
RATHER THAN INCHES. MEANWHILE...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SEND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD DAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO
REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 20 DEG
BELOW NORMAL LATE MARCH VALUES. WHILE THE COLD AIR MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE INCREASED SUN
SHOULD HELP TO TEMPER AN OTHERWISE LATE JANUARY THERMOMETER.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PROMOTE NOTABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER
40S FOR MANY AREAS. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL THEN INTRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A PARADE OF PACIFIC BASED
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMFORTABLY HIGHER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS...THE MERCURY WILL STILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
MARCH NORMALS.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH TO OPEN THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE IN THE UNSTABLE CHILLY
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE PCPN FREE. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THIS EVENT.
ON TUESDAY...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID
WEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE THE
BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSS OUR REGION...THE
RESULTING SYNOPTIC FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WARMING...THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2KFT DUE TO MOIST AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE COLD OR FROZEN LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN IFR CIGS
AND FOG NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES BUT THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
THIS IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND BRINGS ABOUT 6 HOURS OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SHOULD LOWER
CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER...BUT THE WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX WILL PROBABLY NOT
LOWER VSBY AS MUCH AS AN EVENT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM SW-NE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS WEEK WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM FRONT BROUGHT ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE
RIVER AND CREEK BASINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...AND EVEN A BIT COOLER THAN THAT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. AS A
RESULT THE CREEK AND RIVER RESPONSE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT LESS
THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT
ANOTHER HALF INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY ONLY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S WHICH WOULD REDUCE RUN-OFF FROM SNOW MELT. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS ALSO LOWERED THE EXPECTED THAWING
DEGREE HOURS TO ABOUT 250 TO 300.
ALTHOUGH THIS SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING...THE THREAT IS NOT COMPLETELY GONE. THERE WILL BE
SHARPLY WARMER AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND ANY
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THIS WARM AIR COULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE RUN-
OFF AND FLOWS. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF ICE ALONG THE SHORES
OF THE CAZENOVIA AND BUFFALO CREEKS. IF LEVELS RISE TO ACTION
STAGE...THIS COULD CAUSE THIS ICE TO FLOAT AND BECOME JAMMED.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SITUATION. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED
FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW TAKES EVEN A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1035 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM FRIDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOB DATA DEPICT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN GA THIS EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED 140 METER 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS (/12 HRS) FROM FFC TO GSO. THIS WILL BE A TEXTBOOK CASE
FOR THE UTILITY OF Q-VECTORS...WHERE THE SIGN OF THE DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION TERM IS FORECAST TO OVERWHELM THE FORCING FOR
DESCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL CAA...AND RESULT IN
STRONG AND FOCUSED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SQUARELY OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
IN FACT...NWP GUIDANCE...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP...SUGGEST THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROVIDE FOR A
RENEWED INCREASED IN (SHOWERY) PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT....WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCES IN TWO
AREAS: 1) THE SOUTHERN RAH CWFA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO TRACK ENE FROM OVER CENTRAL SC THIS
EVENING...AND 2) A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
CENTRAL VA TO THE NE NC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE...
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL-
GENERATED PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN AXIS OF COUPLED SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAKS OVERHEAD WILL STREAM NE ACROSS OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. AS AN ASIDE...THE PRESENCE AND RAPID STRENGTHENING
OF THESE JETS DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS RESULTED IN SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SEVERE FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER NC THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WHILE THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL ZONE HAD MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS...A SECONDARY POLAR FRONT HAD JUST BEGUN TO SPILL EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 02Z. THE ASSOCIATED COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS UP
TO 20 OR SO MPH OVERNIGHT; AND AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL CAUSE
FREEZING LEVELS TO DROP AND BOUNDARY-LAYER-WET BULB THERMAL PROFILES
TO COOL...SUCH THAT A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 4 AM MAINLY NE OF THE TRIANGLE...IN AREAS FROM
HENDERSON TO WARRENTON TO NASHVILLE AND ROCKY MOUNT - A CLASSIC CASE
ALSO OF COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES BY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW TO AROUND 40 SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH(H5 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL)...WITH EQUALLY ANOMALOUS H8 TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10C WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN US SATURDAY-SATURDAY. DESPITE
COMPLIMENTS OF FULL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A STEADY 10 TO 15 MPH NWLY BREEZE MAKING
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
STRENGTHENING 1030MB SURFACE SLIDING EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS
UNDERNEATH DRY DEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. THUS...EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING TO LIE WITHIN THE
COOLER 1275-1280M OBSERVED THICKNESS RANGE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...WHICH WILL CHALLENGE RECORD MIN TEMPS AT AREA CLIMATE SITES.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE SPRING FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM IS ACTIVATED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE OVER THE
AREA...BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME
AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY MID
50S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS (ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION) WILL KEEP TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY...PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THEN LOW END CHANCE POP. DESPITE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...
TEMPS WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON MONDAY (OVER SUNDAY) GIVEN THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S. EVEN MORE
MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO MID WEEK GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S (MAYBE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH)...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 70S
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
OUR NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS IS NOT HIGH. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM FRIDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
AREA. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BETWEEN 09-12Z... AND WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WE COULD APPROACH RECORD LOW TERRITORY SUNDAY MORNING ON THE 29TH.
BELOW ARE THE LIST OF THE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
29TH.
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GSO 20-1966
RDU 20-1966
FAY 24-1982
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...RAH/CBL
CLIMATE...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z
DEPICT A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...MORE SO EAST HALF. SINCE ATMOSPHERE
WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST-SW...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOP...OTHERWISE MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER-FREE
WELL INTO THE EVENING. STEADY SW FLOW INTO THE EVENING WILL AID TO
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST LOCALES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS EVENING
AND MORE SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SW...SETTING UP AN
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT NW HALF...AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
MIN TEMPS FOR MOST FOLKS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH....50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850-700MB TROUGHS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY STABILIZING BY MID AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN WELL MIXED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT IN SPITE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE HAS MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME SO AM
MORE IN FAVOR OF MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NW TO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND SFC WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE AN ARGUMENT FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.
THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
642 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...RADAR SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS
EXTENDING NW ACROSS NORTHERN HORRY COUNTY AND THROUGH WHITEVILLE
AND ELIZABETHTOWN. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE OFFSHORE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 12Z/8 AM EDT AND 15Z/11 AM EDT.
POPS REMAIN IN THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL
2/3RDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FORECAST. THE 07Z HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND WAS THE BASIS FOR THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS...
A WARM FRONT BACKING INLAND FROM THE COAST IS PRODUCING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...WHILE JUST EAST OF THE
FRONT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD BUT NET LINE MOTION SHOULD PICK UP A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SHORTLY...STEERED BY THE 700-500 MB FLOW
WHICH IS STRENGTHENING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE
HRRR AND THE NSSL WRF SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MERGING INTO A HEFTY LINE
AS IT REACHES THE WILMINGTON METRO AREA AFTER DAYBREAK. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVELY STEEP AND GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE
OF THE STORMS WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARS THE COAST BY 10 AM OR
SO...DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT
THERE SHOULD BE SO MUCH SUNSHINE I AM FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE ABOVE THE WARMEST MODEL OR MOS I COULD FIND...LOWER 80S
INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE BEACHES WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING IN CHILLY AIR OFF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY WELL INLAND BUT THIS MIGHT BE
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF DEEP
MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE GULF...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LOW GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. MY FORECAST
LOWS ARE WELL ABOVE MOS AND CLOSE TO A RAW MODEL BLEND WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHOW UP WEST OF
I-95 SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY...AND I PENCILED IN A NARROW ZONE
OF COOLER FORECAST LOWS HERE EXPECTING COLD ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
WELL AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WARRANT LIKELY POPS TROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEST TO EAST. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
CERTAINLY ENOUGH DYNAMICS AS THE POWERFUL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS WARRANTS HOLDING ON TO POPS AND
DRIZZLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE MIX OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY BUT ANY APPEARANCE OF
FLAKES WILL BE FLEETING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH CLEARING SKIES
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS AS MODELS AND GUIDANCE
REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEING CENTERED ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. MEX NUMBERS ARE ALL BUT UNCHANGED WITH 30 IN
WILMINGTON AND 28 IN LBT. THE CONSISTENCY OF THE HIGHS PLACEMENT
OVER THE APPALACHIANS GIVES SOME POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REMAINING UP
JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A DESTRUCTIVE FREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS. A SUBTLE TROUGH WILL PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS THIS OCCURRING
MUCH FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER AND DRIER SOLUTION FAVORED BY WPC. THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BRIEFLY PUT A HOLD ON THE WARMUP THAT WILL PICK UP IN
EARNEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE 60S AND 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE A NICE WARMUP WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S. NO POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ANTICIPATE MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
DUE TO LOW CIGS...RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
AND NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN SC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY
SIDESTEP FLO TO THE EAST...AFFECTING MYR/CRE AND LBT THROUGH 10Z.
AFTER 10Z IT WILL SHIFT TOWARD ILM WITH CONTINUED UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS WEST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FLO AND LBT BETWEEN 07-08Z...WITH
LOWER CHANCES OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT MYR/CRE CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.
AFTER DAYBREAK...LOW CLOUDS MAINLY INLAND WILL LIFT IN THE 13-15Z
TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION NEAR ILM SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY 15Z. DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRODUCE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
12G20KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SHRA...BECOMING VFR LATER SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS I HAVE
INCREASED FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS FOR THIS MORNING BY ABOUT A FOOT
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS SC. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR
IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS.
MARINERS WILL NEED TO PLAN FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM
FOLLOWS...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT REACH THE WATER
UNTIL SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS MEANS SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS TO DEAL WITH. THE
FIRST IS ONGOING NOW AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS LOW
IS HELPING CREATE A LINE OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT COULD
ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS AWAY FROM SHORE
WILL GO INTO A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...A SEABREEZE NEARSHORE SHOULD
HOLD WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS. TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.
WITH ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS...LARGE SEAS ARE BEING DIRECTED FROM
WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. RECENT REPORTS INCLUDE 5
FEET AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...AND 4 FEET AT THE
"HARBOR" BUOY SOUTH OF SOUTHPORT. THESE SEAS COULD BUILD ANOTHER
FOOT THIS MORNING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON LULL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 FOOT
SEAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS
DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS FROM THE PREFRONTAL FLOW. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR
SOME TIME AND ONLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER
SEAS...3-5 FEET WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE OUTERMOST WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. SEAS DROP TO 2-3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
EVER WEAKENING WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING OVERHEAD SUNDAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS FIELDS ACROSS THE WATERS.EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS INITIALLY BACKING OFF TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY
SUNSET. A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15-
20 KNOTS DEVELOPS MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/SGL
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AND NSSL WRF
MODELS...THINK THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG BEST
AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SPC HAS COASTAL SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...WITH THE
MAIN THREAT TIME BEING THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. MOST ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE
RANGE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S IN COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY...AS STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
DURING THE LATE EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION AND SCALE POPS BACK UP TO HIGH CHANCE THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY STABLE BY THIS TIME...WITH PERHAPS ELEVATED THUNDER
ACROSS ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S COAST
AND MID/UPPER 50S INLAND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THUR...WET PATTERN TO START THE
PERIOD...THEN FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
WARMING TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH E
NC FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING. OVERRUNNING PRECIP AS 850 MB
FRONT WILL HANG BACK INDUCING FGEN AND CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ALL DAY. USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE...AS HIGH TEMPS
REALIZED EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S AND 50S
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RAW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THICKNESSES FALL AS UPR TROUGH PIVOTS INTO EASTERN NC
AND 850 MB FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OFFSHORE IN THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL INTO THE 30S BY LATE FRI
NIGHT. FCST MODEL SNDGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SFC TO 1500 FT WARM
LAYER...THOUGH WET BULB TEMPS JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AND CONTINUED
SATURATION IN THE DGZ SUGGEST A MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IF
PRECIP DOES IN FACT OCCUR. NO IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR HOWEVER AS SFC
TEMPS AND GROUND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
SATURDAY...ANY SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WOULD QUICKLY END SAT MORNING AS
DRY AIR WORKS IN AND SUNSHINE RETURNS. BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW...AND THICKNESSES
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM MID 40S NRN OBX TO TO UPR 40S TO NEAR 50
SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRES AREA BUILDS INTO E NC WITH A
FREEZE EXPECTED MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME IN PLACE. BEACHES MAY SEE ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. GROWING SEASON WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN
ON MARCH 27 ACROSS ALL OF E NC SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
SUNDAY...MODERATING TEMPS THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S (UPR 40S OBX) THOUGH WINDS MUCH LIGHTER AND VEERING TO THE
WEST SO WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY WITH FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EARLY IN
THE WEEK. 26/00Z GFS INDICATES AN EARLY FROPA WITH SHOWER CHANCES AS
EARLY AS LATE SUN NIGHT...THOUGH ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER SOLN WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT LATER MONDAY. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS UPR 60S TO LOWER
70S WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES CURRENTLY AS CLOUD COVER PRIMARY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. AS SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS TAF CYCLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THUR...GOOD THREAT OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS FRIDAY AS STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION SETS UP WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. WINDS BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND CONTINUE GUSTY NW ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRES BUILDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN VFR WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AND BECOME SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET BY
MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD
OUR WATERS AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK WITH ACTIVE PATTERN PRODUCING POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD. SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE WATERS ON FRIDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 25 TO
30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THE SCA
CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER NORTHWEST WHILE ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO POUR INTO E NC. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO
NEAR SCA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 105 AM THURSDAY...A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS IMPACTING AREAS NEAR
THE COAST AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING AND INCREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE BUILDING EAST TOWARD MORNING. HAVE 20-30 PCT POPS OVER THE
REGION...INCREASING TO HIGH CHANCE AFTER 08Z. INSTABILITY IS QUITE
WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL AFTER
08Z. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA EXPECTED
THRU MORNING ESPCLY CST WITH CONT DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER
REGION. THE MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE DURING LATE MORN AND EARLY
AFTN WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING AFTN. INSTAB WILL BE
INCREASING DURING AFTN WITH GOOD HEATING ESPCLY INLAND. GFS NOW
SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTAB ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW WHAT NAM IS
INDICATING. ALTHOUGH BEST CVRG OF SHRA WILL BE EARLY BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO POSS SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN AFTN WHEN INSTAB
INCREASES OVER THE AREA. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR OVER REGION ANY
INCREASE IN INSTAB WOULD LEAD TO GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH SOME
STORMS POSS ROTATING. NO CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH AROUND 80 INLAND TO
60S BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM WED...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL START THE
PERIOD. TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. STARTING TO SEE SOME SPREAD IN THE MODELS LATE SATURDAY AS
ECMWF SLOWS THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSAY NIGHT. MODELS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
EACH OTHER ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHES AND 850 FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
WILL SEE DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND 850 FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS MAY NOT SEE MUCH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS CLOSE TO FREEZING AND A SMALL POTENTIAL OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...COULD SEE SOME WINTERY TYPE PRECIPITATION.
VARIOUS DEGREES OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE...SINCE MIXTURE
ALREADY IN FORECAST...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. IF ANY WINTERY
PRECIPITATION DOES FORM...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
IMPACTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING WITH MODELS
DISAGREEING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
DRIER SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TAF SITES CURRENTLY AS CLOUD COVER PRIMARY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. AS SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD MORNING...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THIS TAF CYCLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 149 PM WED...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MID LEVEL FRONT
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS.
THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THU/...
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...WINDS GENERALLY SE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS
CURRENTLY...BUT SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET OR BETTER BY DAYBREAK. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WED...ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THINGS
STIRRED UP OVER THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP ALL WATERS IN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE
OUTER WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
128 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MODELS ON TRACK WITH A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES MODELS.
AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION SOMETHING IN
THE HWO AS SOME TRAVEL ISSUES MAY MATERIALIZE EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINTRY MIX IS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE REGION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND
IN LINE WITH THE 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND INCOMING 00 UTC
NAM...DEVELOPING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH...THE NAM HAS THE MOST AMPLIFIED QPF FIELD...AND THUS DID
SHY AWAY FROM ITS OVERALL AMOUNTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT GIVEN GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE 20-22 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS OF A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WINDS
IN THE FAR EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THIS AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
CURRENTLY...WINDS GUSTING TO 43 MPH AT JAMESTOWN...WITH GUSTS TO
41 MPH AT CARRINGTON LAST HOUR. SOME PEAKS OF SUN PROBABLY ADDING
TO THE INCREASED MIXING. BUT GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND FALL/RISE COUPLET HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE 5 PM
EXPIRATION AND EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY THIS
TIME WITH A QUICK DROP OFF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE MONDAY
REGION TONIGHT. A IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
UTILIZING THE MAXIMUM WET BULB TEMPERATURE ALOFT INDICATES SNOW
TONIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW RATIOS ARE LOW
AND THUS WE ARE GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM
AROUND TROTTERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH DICKINSON TO HETTINGER. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE WARMER THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY 30S EAST TO 40S SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH
SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY:
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE LEADING/AHEAD OF THE
WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A NARROW BAND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES
OF FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY CHANCES OF RAIN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE TEENS EAST TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY FROM AROUND 40 EAST TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.
A WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY MILD AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BRING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS CENTRAL AND EAST. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK EARLY THIS
THURSDAY MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z. BUT
AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERED. FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
931 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR LEADING EDGE OF RAIN IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK WITH WAVY FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
PREV DISCN...
LEANED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO...AND IS APPARENT IN THE OBS.
KZZV HAS A SE WIND WHILE KOSU IS NORTHERLY. THIS PUTS THE BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NW OF PERRY COUNTY. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE
IS MOVING UP THE FRONT...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KY/TN. EXPECT THIS
WAVE TO CROSS WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
THE NE IT WILL DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE HIGHEST POPS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING
STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THERE. HAVE
THE FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 17Z-18Z. NEAR THE I-79 CORRIDOR
FROM CRW TO CKB AROUND 19Z- 20Z. MAKING IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-
22Z...AND THEN HEADED EAST OF CWA BY 00Z. DID TIGHTEN UP THE POP
GRADIENT...AND HAVE DRY POPS MAKING IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY THE
END OF NEAR TERM. HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. WENT WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST...AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED
UP HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST A LITTLE WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
TIGHTER POP GRADIENT KEEPING THINGS DRY THERE A BIT LONGER...PLUS
MANY HAVE ONLY COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SO FAR EARLY THIS
MORNING.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE TRANSITION TIME. ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A COATING TO HALF INCH IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE APPEARANCE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO OUR FORECAST FOR THIS SHORT TERM. THE BOARD
500 MB TROF SHARPENS WITH ITS AXIS NOT PASSING UNTIL 08Z TO 12Z
SATURDAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF HANGS OVER US INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT TO 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS HIGHER THAN BOTH NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE...STILL THINKING A SEMI LULL IN PCPN
COVERAGE 12Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF GROUND WHITENING IN THE
LOWLANDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HARD TO TELL
HOW MUCH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...STILL THINKING NOT SOLID OVERCAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT CELLULAR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO STILL TRYING TO
LEAK THE LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S BETWEEN SHOWERS.
YET...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...LEFT THE POSSIBLE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEARER NIGHT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD
WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA
ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN
THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS AN ELONGATES SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AS THE LOW
PASSES... BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR IN RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD EVEN GET
SOME IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT HARD TO TIME ANYTHING AT
THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR SURGES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL GET CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION COULD VARY. MAY GET IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS
AND ALSO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
652 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEANED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO...AND IS APPARENT IN THE OBS.
KZZV HAS A SE WIND WHILE KOSU IS NORTHERLY. THIS PUTS THE BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NW OF PERRY COUNTY. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE IS
MOVING UP THE FRONT...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KY/TN. EXPECT THIS WAVE
TO CROSS WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NE
IT WILL DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING STILL
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THERE. HAVE THE FRONT
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 17Z-18Z. NEAR THE I-79 CORRIDOR FROM CRW TO
CKB AROUND 19Z-20Z. MAKING IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-22Z...AND THEN
HEADED EAST OF CWA BY 00Z. DID TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT...AND
HAVE DRY POPS MAKING IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF NEAR TERM.
HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WITH
NON-DIURNAL TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST A
LITTLE WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT KEEPING
THINGS DRY THERE A BIT LONGER...PLUS MANY HAVE ONLY COOLED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE TRANSITION TIME. ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A COATING TO HALF INCH IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE APPEARANCE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO OUR FORECAST FOR THIS SHORT TERM. THE BOARD
500 MB TROF SHARPENS WITH ITS AXIS NOT PASSING UNTIL 08Z TO 12Z
SATURDAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF HANGS OVER US INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT TO 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS HIGHER THAN BOTH NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE...STILL THINKING A SEMI LULL IN PCPN
COVERAGE 12Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF GROUND WHITENING IN THE
LOWLANDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HARD TO TELL
HOW MUCH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...STILL THINKING NOT SOLID OVERCAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT CELLULAR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO STILL TRYING TO
LEAK THE LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S BETWEEN SHOWERS.
YET...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...LEFT THE POSSIBLE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEARER NIGHT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD
WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA
ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN
THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS AN ELONGATES SURFACE LOW
MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND. AS THE LOW
PASSES... BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
MVFR IN RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD EVEN GET
SOME IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT HARD TO TIME ANYTHING AT
THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE FRONT. AS COLD AIR SURGES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL GET CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION COULD VARY. MAY GET IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS
AND ALSO TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LEANED FAIRLY HEAVILY ON THE HRRR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OHIO...AND IS APPARENT IN THE OBS.
KZZV HAS A SE WIND WHILE KOSU IS NORTHERLY. THIS PUTS THE BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NW OF PERRY COUNTY. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE IS
MOVING UP THE FRONT...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KY/TN. EXPECT THIS WAVE
TO CROSS WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE NE
IT WILL DRAG COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING STILL
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THERE. HAVE THE FRONT
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER 17Z-18Z. NEAR THE I-79 CORRIDOR FROM CRW TO
CKB AROUND 19Z-20Z. MAKING IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS 21Z-22Z...AND THEN
HEADED EAST OF CWA BY 00Z. DID TIGHTEN UP THE POP GRADIENT...AND
HAVE DRY POPS MAKING IT TO THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF NEAR TERM.
HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WITH
NON-DIURNAL TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST...AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST A
LITTLE WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHTER POP GRADIENT KEEPING
THINGS DRY THERE A BIT LONGER...PLUS MANY HAVE ONLY COOLED INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. HAVE RAIN
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME
LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND THE TRANSITION TIME. ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW BY 12Z AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A COATING TO HALF INCH IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
OLD MAN WINTER`S ENCORE APPEARANCE LINGERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO OUR FORECAST FOR THIS SHORT TERM. THE BOARD
500 MB TROF SHARPENS WITH ITS AXIS NOT PASSING UNTIL 08Z TO 12Z
SATURDAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF HANGS OVER US INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FRIDAY NIGHT TO 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS HIGHER THAN BOTH NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
IN TERMS OF SHOWER COVERAGE...STILL THINKING A SEMI LULL IN PCPN
COVERAGE 12Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE OF GROUND WHITENING IN THE
LOWLANDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HARD TO TELL
HOW MUCH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY...STILL THINKING NOT SOLID OVERCAST ON
FRIDAY...BUT CELLULAR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO STILL TRYING TO
LEAK THE LOWLAND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S BETWEEN SHOWERS.
YET...WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...LEFT THE POSSIBLE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLEARER NIGHT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29TH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD
WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA
ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN
THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SW
OHIO. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NE ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MVFR IN
RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 03/26/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BE
VERY ABUNDANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD IN AS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY.
SINCE UPPER TROF DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...MAY NOT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS LONG ENOUGH. BUT
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE THAT.
WITH COLDER SIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP WILL MIX
WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL...BUT THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT EXPECT
THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,,,CAUSING THE
PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD
WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA
ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN
THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SW
OHIO. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NE ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HAVE THUNDER POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH MVFR IN
RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 03/26/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
404 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.
TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.
POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.
THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.
TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.
POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
.
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
THE FRONTAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME ISSUES WITH RAIN TO SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN PA THIS EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODEST THUNDERSTORMS IS INT THE 20Z TO 00Z
TIMEFRAME MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THERE COULD BE
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN....SNOW....AND LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR
AND IFR. BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...AREAS OF IFR AND MVFR.
THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR AND SOME AREAS MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY VFR AREAS MVFR IN SNSH. WINDY DAY WITH
SOME GUST SPREAD ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS EVENING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE TONGUE OF WARM AIR HAS PUSHED 60F READINGS WELL INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NY
BORDER WHERE IT IS STILL IN THE 30S. SNOW IS OCCURRING NOT TOO FAR
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE MODELS AND RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
WARM AIR FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL PA IN THE 3-4 PM TIME
FRAME THEN THIS LINE MOVING EASTWARD CLEARING LANCASTER COUNTY BY
7-8 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA THIS
EVENING.
TOTAL QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT IN THE 0.05 TO 0.25 RANGE WITH HINTS
OF PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IMPLIES RELATIVE TO HRRR/RAP IS ABOUT 0.10 TO 0.20
INCHES. NOT A BIG EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE LUCKY TO SEE
ABOUT 0.10.
POPS DROP BEHIND THIS LINE AND THIS EVENING COLD AIR TURNS ANY
SHOWERS TO SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST. ALL NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW BY 10 PM. SNOW CHANGE OVER IS SLOWER
TO EAST AND IN NEXT PERIOD AND AFTER THE BULK OF THE FORECAST QPF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/....
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS PUSH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THIS
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL
TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING OR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE 40S IN SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 30 IN NORTHWEST.
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSBILE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. MORNING
LOWS MAINLY UPPER 20S IN NORTH TO LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY FOR LATE MARCH. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MOUNTAINS
TO MID 40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT 850
HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1203 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE FOR HIGHER TEMEPATURES AS WARM SURGE IS STRONGER THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE. MANY SOUTHERN PA LOCATIONS WILL TOP 70 AND
CENTRAL AREAS COULD HIT 60.
PREVIOUS:
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN SHARP
PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35 NEAR THE NEW
YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.
MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.
SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....
PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.
MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.
SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....
PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE SURGE OF WARM AIR AND THE
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND MENTION OF VCTS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR NY BORDER AND PERIODS OF VFR LIKELY
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AS THE WARM AIR HAS SCOURED OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AIR. BUT THE FAST APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT MOST AREAS WILL GO UP OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO VFR AND
PATCHY MVFR. BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME AREAS IFR/MVFR
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH PATCHY FOGGY DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...GRUMM/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1106 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RAPIDLY UPDATING MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURE RISES HAVE BEEN
SHARP PAST FEW HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS NOSE OF 65 TO 70F AIR MOVING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
PA JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN SOMERSET COUNTY TO NEAR 35
NEAR THE NEW YORK BORDER AS OF 1045 AM.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL PA ON LEADING
EDGE OF THE WARM AIR. REPORTS OF HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL COVERING
GROUND IN NORTHERN PA WHERE IT WAS 33-34F WHEN WITH THUNDER.
MODELS IMPLY SOME CAPE AND HRRR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE DEVELOP AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST SO WE COULD HAVE RAIN TO SNOW ISSUES IN WARREN COUNTY AS
WE DEAL WITH THUNDER IN THE HARRISBURG-YORK-LANCASTER AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SPRING ROLLER COASTER OF WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE THE 30S TO NEAR 40 IN NORTH TO
LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS IN NORTH WILL ADD TO THE
BEAUTY OF IT ALL. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION AFTER 2 PM AND PERHAPS A
WEAK LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
IN THE 5 TO 8 PM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TOO. SEE HOW THE
HRRR DEVELOPS THIS FEATURE OVER TIME.
SO PUT THUNDER IN FORECAST IN CENTRAL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY IN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 6 PM OR SO AND ANY RESIDUAL RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW IN THE 7 TO 8 PM RANGE OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
...UPDATED TEMPS/GRIDS/POPS...ALL WILL SEE RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
ISSUES SPREAD EAST WITH TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE DUSTING/COATING IN NW....
PREVIOUS:
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.
06Z INFO.
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.
HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
858 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW...FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF THE SEASON. A STEADY COLD RAIN
WILL FALL NORTH OF THE LOWS TRACK...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS WERE SPREAD ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...AND THE NORTHERN MTNS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NW MTNS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY
IMPROVING A BIT TO AROUND 1SM AS A STEADIER...COLD RAIN SPREADS
NE ACROSS THAT REGION.
HIGH RES MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK
SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWEST PA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TRACK WILL BRING A COLD
RAIN TO THE NW COUNTIES...WHERE 100 PCT POPS ARE SUPPORTED. SFC
WARM FRONT...WHICH REMAINS HUNG UP JUST SW OF THE LAURELS THIS
MORNING...WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY LATE AM/EARLY AFTN...
AND ALSO SETTING THE STAGE FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
GENERAL THUNDER INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL PA
WITH MARGINAL AREA CONFINED TO THE DEL MARVA REGION.
LATEST...11Z HRRR DEPICTS A BKN LINE OF HEAVY SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR A LINE FROM
KELM...TO KUNV AND KIDI. THIS LINE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVES INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21-22Z
/WHERE MUCH BETTER ML CAPES OF 400-800 J/KG...AND WEAK-MDT 0-1KM
SHEAR WILL RESIDE/.
BEST RAIN CHCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA COME DURING LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH LG
SCALE FORCING IN ADVANCE OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE...SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. HIGHS WILL VARY STRONGLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH
MAXES ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND RANGING TO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ IN THE WARM SECTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS LOW EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO LGT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS BY THU EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ENDING AS -SHSN ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUM OF LESS THAN AN
INCH APPEARS LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE NW MTNS SOUTH ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES TO SOMERSET CO.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SPRING OVER SOUTHERN
PA...WITH 18Z CONSALL MAXES IN THE 65-70F RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS NEAR THE MD BORDER. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
TO GROUND LVL IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS NR 30KTS ACROSS THE S TIER DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY
DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY
AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER TROF HAS SLOWED A BIT IN RECENT GUIDANCE.
AT THE SFC...EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION STARTING LATER FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE DEEPNESS OF THIS UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS WED AND THUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTOMONDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE
FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS. SOME AREAS
STILL NEAR FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ABD UPDATE
AS NEEDED. 12Z TAFS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TAFS AT 09Z.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PA...BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST.
06Z INFO.
STILL SOME LOWER CLDS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THESE SEEM TO BE
MOVING EASTWARD...SO DID NOT KEEP ANY IN AT IPT. ALSO BACKED OFF
ON NON-VFR CONDITIONS AT UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR
JST...GIVEN LIGHT SOUTH FLOW. STILL LOOKING AT DENSE FOG AND LOW
CIGS AT BFD.
HARD TO SEE BFD IMPROVING MUCH TODAY...AS SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NW PA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FURTHER EAST...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITONS
AND MILD TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING IN SPOTS AS OF 130 AM...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN
BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LEFT LLWS
OUT FOR NOW...BORDERLINE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WORKS
IN...AND MOST AREAS SEE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL LIKELY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW LATE ACROSS THE NW AND FAR WESTERN
AREAS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DEVIOR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 82% HIGH 95%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% MED 62%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 96% HIGH 82%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 100% MED 73% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 82% MED 62%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 100% MED 64% MED 72%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP EXISTS THIS AFTN...THOUGH TOO
SMALL TO MENTION. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT
LATEST NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED IN THE MIDLEVELS...SO
PARTICULARLY DEEP CONVECTION OR THUNDER NOT EXPECTED. SWLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...WITH WSHFT TO NW LIKELY 08-09Z. LLVL FORCING IN THE
PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BRING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
IF NOT SOONER. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
PRESENT...HENCE PROB30 TSRA. IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A TSRA DOES
PASS OVER THE FIELD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOW MVFR
INVOF THE FRONT...WITH POPS DIMINISHING AND CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING
AFTER DAYBREAK.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTN WITH
SPOTTY CU AT MVFR LEVELS...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SMALL POPS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN THOUGH TOO LOW TO MENTION. IN GENERAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FROPA WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...THOUGH THE
NWLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 02-03Z AT KAVL AND OCCURRING AT
ALL SITES BEFORE DAWN. THUNDER CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXIST
MAINLY AT THE UPSTATE SC SITES. GUIDANCE SPLIT ON FLT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP
AND WINDS KEEPING THE BDY LAYER MIXED. KAND IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE
THE SIGNAL IS STRONGER FOR IFR. TSRA MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
WHEREVER THEY OCCUR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO MIDDAY FRI WITH
CONTINUED NWLY WINDS AND OCNL LOW END GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME RESTRICTIONS FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A FEW RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN IN ITS WAKE.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 82% HIGH 91%
KGSP HIGH 86% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% MED 62%
KAVL HIGH 98% HIGH 86% HIGH 83% HIGH 88%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 94% MED 64% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 89% HIGH 100% MED 76% MED 62%
KAND HIGH 86% HIGH 91% LOW 58% MED 68%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE
CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...LATEST RAP AND NAM PROFILES DO NOT REFLECT AS MUCH
INSTABILITY THIS AFTN AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND IN FACT ARE
GENERALLY DRIER ACRS THE AREA. FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
MTNS A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET WITH PROFILES BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWERED POPS ACRS THE
PIEDMONT TO A MAXIMUM OF SCHC THIS AFTN WHILE MAINTAINING A SLOW
INCREASING TREND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL ANTICIPATING MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE WARM END OF GUIDANCE...NO CHANGES MADE IN THAT
REGARD.
AS OF 345 AM...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 295 K WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THICK LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...SCT TI
WIDELY SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE 0Z NAM INDICATES THAT LLVL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESULTING LITTLE TO NO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ENDING UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO THIN ONCE LLVL LIFT
HAS CEASED...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUN AND MARGINALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. A BLEND OF
PREFERRED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE YIELD HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 WITHIN THE
MTN VALLEYS TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF I-85. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS
EASTERN KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BETWEEN 0Z-3Z...THEN PUSHING EAST OF THE PIEDMONT BY 9Z. POOLING
DEWPOINTS AND MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-
1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE TN/NC LINE BETWEEN 0Z TO 3Z. I WILL INCREASE
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...PEAKING POPS AT 6Z IN THE HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGES. I WILL MENTION SHOWERS WITH CHC/SCHC OF TSRA. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BRISK CAA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. BY 12Z FRI...TN BORDER COUNTIES MAY
COOL H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE U30S WITHIN MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THE CAA
COULD SUPPORT A FEW TN BORDER -SHSN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA FRIDAY
MORNING...AS MOST UPGLIDE CONTINUES BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS
PRECIP WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DPVA...AS A SHARP UPPER TROF AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AS PRECIP/CLOUDS
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY AS WELL...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SHWR ACTIVITY AS
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF AS IT CROSSES
THE NC MTNS. MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -4 TO -8C
RANGE. SO EXPECT MAINLY SNOW SHWRS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS. STILL
THINK IT WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY. THE MTNS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE PIEDMONT
WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FROST...IF WINDS DECOUPLE.
SATURDAY...THE LLVL CAA WILL CONTINUE...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT NW FLOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
HOWEVER...AS MOISTURE WANES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A BREEZE IN THE MTNS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN
ACRS THE CWFA...USHERING IN THE COLDEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN IN A COUPLE
WEEKS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACRS THE ENTIRE MTN ZONES...AND A
LIGHT-MODERATE FREEZE ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. THESE MIN TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE
PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY...AND A SHARP REBOUND IN HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE A CHILLY DAY...BUT EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTER A COLD START. AS THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST...WEAK RETURN FLOW SHUD COMMENCE. SUNDAY
NIGHT SHUD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPR 30S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND USHER IN A CLIPPER LOW TO THE REGION. THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT OF THAT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CWFA EITHER MONDAY MORNING
(PER GFS) OR MONDAY EVENING (PER ECMWF). BOTH SOLNS SHOW ENUF
MOISTURE FOR A BAND OF PRECIP WITH THE FROPA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL NOT BE THAT COLD AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE
GFS BRINGS A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN OF POPS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY.
GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THAT INCLUDES THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE...HAVE A SLGT CHC TO CHC POP ON MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT...THEN CHC POPS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY (MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS). TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TO LOW
VFR BY EARLY AFTN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS BETWEEN
16Z-03Z. CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT FURTHER INTO VFR RANGE BY EARLY
EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE I-
85 CORRIDOR AROUND 6Z FRI. POOLING INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SCT TSRA
BETWEEN 6Z-9Z...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. BY 9Z...NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND -
SHRA.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTN...AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIELD OF WEAK
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING TSRA. NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER 7Z.
OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 83%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAVL HIGH 83% HIGH 100% MED 69% MED 66%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% LOW 43%
KGMU HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KAND MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...NED/WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT THROUGH NW TN AND
THE WRN 1/3RD OF KY...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NAM 12KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE) OF 800 TO 1200 J/KG FOR OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES
AT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (MAINLY ERN AREAS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).
LATEST RAP AND HRR MODEL RUNS REALLY DON`T ADVANCE MUCH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z TODAY...SO
MAY LOWER POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR MORE IN THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS RUNNING ON TRACK AS FAR TEMPS AND OTHER
HOURLY FIELDS ARE CONCERNED. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO MAKE MINOR
CHANGE MENTIONED AND TO ALSO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING FROM ZFP
PRODUCT.
OUR FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN TODAY FOR ALL BUT...WISE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES OF SW VA...AS WELL AS THE SMOKY AND NE TN MTN AREAS. WE
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FREEZE PROGRAM AREAS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS FOR REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING INTO THIS AREA.
JCL
&&
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 739 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TN
UNTIL 2 AM CDT THU. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS ALREADY SENT. ALSO
UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
CURRENTLY...A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF CAP ACROSS
THE AREA...DECENT HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND
MILD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO AND DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. BY LATE EVENING
EXPECT CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TO REACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AT THIS
POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY 03Z THERE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT UNTIL 06-07Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SHOWER AND A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM PARIS TN TO
MEMPHIS TO THE ARKLATEX WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP POST FRONTAL BY
THAT POINT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF BRINGING AND ABRUPT END TO THE MILD WEATHER.
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MANY PLACES WILL HAVE MORNING HIGHS WITH
FALLING OR STEADY TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. THE SUN MAY PEEK OUT ACROSS NE AR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW COULD PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPS IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO SAVANNAH TN LINE SATURDAY MORNING AND
EAST OF A DYERSBURG TN TO FULTON MS LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WE
WILL NEED SOME CLEARING TO SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPS THESE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP
FORECAST. STAY TUNED.
SUNDAY...LOOKING DRY AND MILDER AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY SMALL POPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. LOOKING MORE WET BY MIDWEEK AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BRING MVFR WEATHER. BEST THREAT FOR STORMS ON
STATION WILL BE AT JBR...OTHERWISE VCTS AT MKL. BEHIND THE FRONT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A LIGHT STEADY RAIN WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS.
IMPROVING WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED LATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 6-12 KTS
WILL VEER NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS...SCATTERING OUT
TO VFR BY 19-20Z. THE CURRENT ROBUST NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THIS
MORNING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET
...REMAIN OFFSHORE AND VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY`S SUNRISE. AREAWIDE
SKC FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION IS OFF THE COAST...SOME LINGERING LIGHT/
MODERATE RAIN AREAS WILL HANG AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THINGS COVERED...AND MIGHT UPDATE EVERYTHING
ONCE THE RAINS EXIT OUR AREA. 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
ARKLATEX SW TO C TX AND NW HILL COUNTRY. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLJ AT 850MB
STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER TX COAST NE THROUGH E TX AND TOWARDS THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE N GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. POLAR JET
STRETCHES FROM THE S PLAINS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVER OK MOVING EAST TOWARDS ARK. ANOTHER JET
STREAK WAS FOUND OVER THE N ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN
THE TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC COAST.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/3KM TXTECH WRF/4 KM WRF ARW ALL HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE TX. LATEST 07Z HRRR
HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND BASED THE FIRST DAY FORECAST ON A BLEND
OF THESE TRENDS WITH THE RAP AND 3KM TX TECH WRF. FRONT SHOULD
REACH KCLL/KUTS 10-11Z...KIAH/KSGR/KHOU AROUND 13Z AND THEN OFF
THE COAST 15-16Z. MODELS DO SUPPORT CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN CHANCES
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM 15-18Z INLAND. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME STRONG BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE DUE TO CAPPING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP AT
800-750MB.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE BECAUSE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS
MORNING AND MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER CLEARS...MAY GET SOME SLIGHT HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON TO OFF SET COLD ADVECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MIN TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S. TEMPS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX.
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS THEMSELVES HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER.
THE PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING A TROUGH THAT
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF CUTS
OFF SOME VORTICITY FROM THIS TROUGH AND HAS IT RETROGRADE BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE GFS DOES SIMILARLY WITH THE MAIN
WAVE BUT HAS A MORE COHERENT CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES INTO TX ON TUE. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND HAS
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
CHALLENGING BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THERE WILL BE LITTLE
WEATHER IMPACT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THE TROUGH SWINGS OVER
SE TX WITH NEG TILT AND VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE CANADIAN MODEL MIGHT BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT PERHAPS SUPPORTING THE ECMWF
A BIT MORE. FORECAST WILL KEEP 30/40 POPS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT EARLY NEXT WED WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS NEXT WEEK COULD BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 45 74 51 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 49 75 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 54 70 60 73 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION IS OFF THE COAST...SOME LINGERING LIGHT/
MODERATE RAIN AREAS WILL HANG AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
THE FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THINGS COVERED...AND MIGHT UPDATE EVERYTHING
ONCE THE RAINS EXIT OUR AREA. 42
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
ARKLATEX SW TO C TX AND NW HILL COUNTRY. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLJ AT 850MB
STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER TX COAST NE THROUGH E TX AND TOWARDS THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE N GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. POLAR JET
STRETCHES FROM THE S PLAINS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVER OK MOVING EAST TOWARDS ARK. ANOTHER JET
STREAK WAS FOUND OVER THE N ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN
THE TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC COAST.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/3KM TXTECH WRF/4 KM WRF ARW ALL HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE TX. LATEST 07Z HRRR
HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND BASED THE FIRST DAY FORECAST ON A BLEND
OF THESE TRENDS WITH THE RAP AND 3KM TX TECH WRF. FRONT SHOULD
REACH KCLL/KUTS 10-11Z...KIAH/KSGR/KHOU AROUND 13Z AND THEN OFF
THE COAST 15-16Z. MODELS DO SUPPORT CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN CHANCES
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM 15-18Z INLAND. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME STRONG BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE DUE TO CAPPING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP AT
800-750MB.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE BECAUSE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS
MORNING AND MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER CLEARS...MAY GET SOME SLIGHT HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON TO OFF SET COLD ADVECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MIN TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S. TEMPS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX.
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS THEMSELVES HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER.
THE PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING A TROUGH THAT
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF CUTS
OFF SOME VORTICITY FROM THIS TROUGH AND HAS IT RETROGRADE BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE GFS DOES SIMILARLY WITH THE MAIN
WAVE BUT HAS A MORE COHERENT CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES INTO TX ON TUE. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND HAS
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
CHALLENGING BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THERE WILL BE LITTLE
WEATHER IMPACT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THE TROUGH SWINGS OVER
SE TX WITH NEG TILT AND VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE CANADIAN MODEL MIGHT BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT PERHAPS SUPPORTING THE ECMWF
A BIT MORE. FORECAST WILL KEEP 30/40 POPS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT EARLY NEXT WED WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS NEXT WEEK COULD BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
39
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 45 74 51 78 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 49 75 54 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 54 70 60 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE KCLL AND KUTS SITES AT 11Z.
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE RAP13 AND GUIDANCE. THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT A TWO-
HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
STRETCHED THIS OUT TO A THREE-HOUR PERIOD AT KLBX AND KGLS DUE TO
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGEST TOWARD THE COAST AND MORE
SOUTHERN SITES. DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
ARKLATEX SW TO C TX AND NW HILL COUNTRY. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLJ AT 850MB
STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER TX COAST NE THROUGH E TX AND TOWARDS THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE N GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. POLAR JET
STRETCHES FROM THE S PLAINS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVER OK MOVING EAST TOWARDS ARK. ANOTHER JET
STREAK WAS FOUND OVER THE N ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN
THE TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC COAST.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/3KM TXTECH WRF/4 KM WRF ARW ALL HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE TX. LATEST 07Z HRRR
HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND BASED THE FIRST DAY FORECAST ON A BLEND
OF THESE TRENDS WITH THE RAP AND 3KM TX TECH WRF. FRONT SHOULD
REACH KCLL/KUTS 10-11Z...KIAH/KSGR/KHOU AROUND 13Z AND THEN OFF
THE COAST 15-16Z. MODELS DO SUPPORT CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN CHANCES
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM 15-18Z INLAND. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME STRONG BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE DUE TO CAPPING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP AT
800-750MB.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE BECAUSE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS
MORNING AND MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER CLEARS...MAY GET SOME SLIGHT HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON TO OFF SET COLD ADVECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MIN TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S. TEMPS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX.
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS THEMSELVES HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER.
THE PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING A TROUGH THAT
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF CUTS
OFF SOME VORTICITY FROM THIS TROUGH AND HAS IT RETROGRADE BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE GFS DOES SIMILARLY WITH THE MAIN
WAVE BUT HAS A MORE COHERENT CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES INTO TX ON TUE. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND HAS
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
CHALLENGING BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THERE WILL BE LITTLE
WEATHER IMPACT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THE TROUGH SWINGS OVER
SE TX WITH NEG TILT AND VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE CANADIAN MODEL MIGHT BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT PERHAPS SUPPORTING THE ECMWF
A BIT MORE. FORECAST WILL KEEP 30/40 POPS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT EARLY NEXT WED WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS NEXT WEEK COULD BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
39
MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE MID AND
LATE MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL LINGER OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TOWARD
SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 45 74 51 78 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 49 75 54 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 54 70 60 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
ARKLATEX SW TO C TX AND NW HILL COUNTRY. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLJ AT 850MB
STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER TX COAST NE THROUGH E TX AND TOWARDS THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE N GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PLAINS. POLAR JET
STRETCHES FROM THE S PLAINS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVER OK MOVING EAST TOWARDS ARK. ANOTHER JET
STREAK WAS FOUND OVER THE N ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN
THE TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PAC COAST.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/3KM TXTECH WRF/4 KM WRF ARW ALL HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SE TX. LATEST 07Z HRRR
HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND BASED THE FIRST DAY FORECAST ON A BLEND
OF THESE TRENDS WITH THE RAP AND 3KM TX TECH WRF. FRONT SHOULD
REACH KCLL/KUTS 10-11Z...KIAH/KSGR/KHOU AROUND 13Z AND THEN OFF
THE COAST 15-16Z. MODELS DO SUPPORT CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 18Z. RAIN CHANCES
CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM 15-18Z INLAND. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME STRONG BUT NOT LIKELY SEVERE DUE TO CAPPING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD CAP AT
800-750MB.
TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE BECAUSE OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S THIS
MORNING AND MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
AS CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER CLEARS...MAY GET SOME SLIGHT HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON TO OFF SET COLD ADVECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 60S WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH MIN TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 40S BUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S. TEMPS
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TX.
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS THEMSELVES HAVE HAD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER.
THE PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING A TROUGH THAT
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF CUTS
OFF SOME VORTICITY FROM THIS TROUGH AND HAS IT RETROGRADE BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC WITH THE MAIN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PAC NW AND
INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THE GFS DOES SIMILARLY WITH THE MAIN
WAVE BUT HAS A MORE COHERENT CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES INTO TX ON TUE. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND HAS
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST
CHALLENGING BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES THERE WILL BE LITTLE
WEATHER IMPACT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN THE TROUGH SWINGS OVER
SE TX WITH NEG TILT AND VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE
WEATHER. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE CANADIAN MODEL MIGHT BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT PERHAPS SUPPORTING THE ECMWF
A BIT MORE. FORECAST WILL KEEP 30/40 POPS AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER DUE TO POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER. THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT EARLY NEXT WED WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN
AIRMASS. TEMPS NEXT WEEK COULD BE A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
39
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE MID AND
LATE MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS WILL LINGER OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TOWARD
SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 65 45 74 51 78 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 49 75 54 79 / 50 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 54 70 60 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
405 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL TRAVEL EAST THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION AND ANAFRONT RAIN WELL BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR
WEDGE FINALLY ERODED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND MIXING.
ANTICIPATING THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST. SKINNY CAPE
AND INSTABILITY MAKES CONVECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HRRR FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTION DEVELOP EXACTLY
AS PROGGED ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
LIKE THE RNKWRFARW...HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW. FOR THE WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SMALL.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER THE COLD AIR CATCHES FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE RATE OF FALL IS ALSO
IMPORTANT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL COOLING
OF TEMPERATURES. BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR CATCHES SOME MOISTURE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVOR AREAS. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE SUN
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WPC IN DAY 1 PAINT
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER AND THE POTENTIAL UP
TO AN INCH IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. FIRST...LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO FIRST PART OF SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND AIDED BY SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER LIFT WHEN THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX
AND TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THEN WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...INCLUDING COLDER THAN
MINUS 10 C AT 850MB OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20 F BELOW AVERAGE...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE TO
RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE 29TH...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WENT WITH COLDER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE COMPARED TO MET...WHICH BOTH
KEEPING TRENDING DOWN...AND WAS TEMPTED TO GO EVEN COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH THE URFACE HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. ONE
CAUTION IS THAT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS AGAIN AND THERE COULD BE
SOME THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE WEST...SO WILL WAIT ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING TO GO BELOW
GUIDANCE OR NOT.
ALSO WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SOME MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC POP
THERE.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE NICELY DURNG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RETURN OF
WARM ADVECTION...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. COULD SEE HAVING TO TWEAK
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY.
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN WEST BUT
THINK GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THIS GIVEN POSITION OF LARGER
TROUGH STILL OFF EAST COAST...SO LEANING TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF AND
HOLDING OFF ON BEST PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL MONDAY...BUT DO HAVE LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON
SAME PAGE WITH MORE OF A DAYTIME MONDAY TIMING...AND ECMWF TRENDS
SHOWING LITTLE WETTER SOLUTION AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO
SPREAD INTO PIEDMONT AT SOME POINT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW
CHC FOOTHILLS AND SLIGHT CHC INTO ALL OF PIEDMONT...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO GO HIGHER IF TIMING HOLDS STEADY.
PLENTY MILD ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY ISSUES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN ON
HIGHEST RIDGES.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN KEEPS SOME CLIPPER ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY OR TUES NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD REMAIN
TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT ECWMF SOLUTION SUGGESTS...AND
THERE IS A TREND TO FLATTEN THE PATTERN A BIT SO EVEN THE WETTER GFS
MAY NOT BRING US MUCH OF ANYTHING...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY DO SO ONLY
ON WESTERN SLOPES. AFTER THAT NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES BY
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH BETTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TAP OF SOME
GULF MOISTURE AS MODELS SHOWING SOME ATTEMPT TO PHASE A SOUTHERN
SHORT WAVE WITH YET ANOTHER COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...THINK THE GFS IS OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY GIVEN A LOT OF POTENTIALLY SPURIOUS CONVECTION NEAR
THE GULF COAST EARLIER WEDNESDAY...SO ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARD
ECMWF WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND NOT AS LIKELY TO SPREAD PRECIP
EAST. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS BEING 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS...AND WITH WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK TOWARD OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...THIS MID WEEK
SYSTEM SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...NOR DOES IT LOOK TO
HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF GENERATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN EITHER A
WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE IF GOING MORE WITH GFS...OR A VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP IF GOING MORE WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MIXING HAS ERODED THE COLD WEDGE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT A NARROW
PATCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING AND MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AROUND 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND
05Z/1AM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:
ROA19
BCB17
LYH23
DAN23
BLF19
LWB18
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
CLIMATE...SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL TRAVEL EAST THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PREFRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION AND ANAFRONT RAIN WELL BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR
WEDGE FINALLY ERODED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND MIXING.
ANTICIPATING THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST. SKINNY CAPE
AND INSTABILITY MAKES CONVECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HRRR FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CONVECTION DEVELOP EXACTLY
AS PROGGED ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
LIKE THE RNKWRFARW...HRRR AND HIRESW-ARW. FOR THE WINDOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS SMALL.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER THE COLD AIR CATCHES FRONTAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE RATE OF FALL IS ALSO
IMPORTANT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR POTENTIAL COOLING
OF TEMPERATURES. BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR CATCHES SOME MOISTURE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
SNOW FLURRIES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE FAVOR AREAS. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE STRENGTH OF THE SUN
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WPC IN DAY 1 PAINT
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER AND THE POTENTIAL UP
TO AN INCH IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. FIRST...LINGERING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS ON WESTERN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS INTO FIRST PART OF SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION
AND AIDED BY SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER LIFT WHEN THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX
AND TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THEN WITH COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...INCLUDING COLDER THAN
MINUS 10 C AT 850MB OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20 F BELOW AVERAGE...AND WE COULD BE CLOSE TO
RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING THE 29TH...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WENT WITH COLDER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE COMPARED TO MET...WHICH BOTH
KEEPING TRENDING DOWN...AND WAS TEMPTED TO GO EVEN COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH THE URFACE HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. ONE
CAUTION IS THAT WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS AGAIN AND THERE COULD BE
SOME THIN CIRRUS DRIFTING AHEAD OF WARM FRONT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE WEST...SO WILL WAIT ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING TO GO BELOW
GUIDANCE OR NOT.
ALSO WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SOME MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC POP
THERE.
TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE NICELY DURNG THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RETURN OF
WARM ADVECTION...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. COULD SEE HAVING TO TWEAK
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY.
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT IN WEST BUT
THINK GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THIS GIVEN POSITION OF LARGER
TROUGH STILL OFF EAST COAST...SO LEANING TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF AND
HOLDING OFF ON BEST PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL MONDAY...BUT DO HAVE LOW
CHANCE FAR WEST BY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP GIVEN CURRENT MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN ON
SAME PAGE WITH MORE OF A DAYTIME MONDAY TIMING...AND ECMWF TRENDS
SHOWING LITTLE WETTER SOLUTION AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO
SPREAD INTO PIEDMONT AT SOME POINT...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW
CHC FOOTHILLS AND SLIGHT CHC INTO ALL OF PIEDMONT...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO GO HIGHER IF TIMING HOLDS STEADY.
PLENTY MILD ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY ISSUES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN ON
HIGHEST RIDGES.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN KEEPS SOME CLIPPER ENERGY HEADING TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY OR TUES NIGHT...BUT THIS COULD REMAIN
TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS WHAT CURRENT ECWMF SOLUTION SUGGESTS...AND
THERE IS A TREND TO FLATTEN THE PATTERN A BIT SO EVEN THE WETTER GFS
MAY NOT BRING US MUCH OF ANYTHING...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY DO SO ONLY
ON WESTERN SLOPES. AFTER THAT NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES BY
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH BETTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TAP OF SOME
GULF MOISTURE AS MODELS SHOWING SOME ATTEMPT TO PHASE A SOUTHERN
SHORT WAVE WITH YET ANOTHER COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...THINK THE GFS IS OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN
PIECE OF ENERGY GIVEN A LOT OF POTENTIALLY SPURIOUS CONVECTION NEAR
THE GULF COAST EARLIER WEDNESDAY...SO ONCE AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARD
ECMWF WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AND NOT AS LIKELY TO SPREAD PRECIP
EAST. OBVIOUSLY WITH THIS BEING 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS...AND WITH WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK TOWARD OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN...THIS MID WEEK
SYSTEM SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES...NOR DOES IT LOOK TO
HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF GENERATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN EITHER A
WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE IF GOING MORE WITH GFS...OR A VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE TAP IF GOING MORE WITH ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MIXING HAS ERODED THE COLD WEDGE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT A NARROW
PATCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING AND MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AROUND 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND
05Z/1AM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
151 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL TRAVEL EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED POPS TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS.
MORE CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1007 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
CAPTURE SUNSHINE NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE IMAGES. USED A
BLEND OF CANDIAN AND HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE WARM MOS FOR LATE MORNING WITH
THE SUNSHINE IN THE WEST. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HRRR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION NOT RETURNING TO AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
AND PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIMING OF
FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z. THE CAPE LOOKED
MARGINAL/WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF WARM LAYER AT 700 MB. AS
OF 13Z DAY ONE CONVECTION OUTLOOK STILL HAS OUR REGION IN THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH THE MRGL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. MORE CHANGES LATER
THIS MORNING.
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT WEDGE REMAINED IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TOWARD DANVILLE AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ELEVATED OVER A
SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION. JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION
LEVEL...STRATUS HAD FORMED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE IN THE CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REPORTED.
LATEST HRRR AND WRF RUNS HAD BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WEDGE
BREAKING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LIFTING AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORECAST AREA IS OUT OF THE WEDGE AND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT EVEN WITH THE WARMING...ONLY
MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED DUE A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 4AM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PITTSBURGH TO LITTLE ROCK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO DIG IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS EVENING. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS AN HOUR OF
TWO FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE NAM AND GFS. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AROUND 00Z/8PM AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 05Z/1AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. AIR MASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
OCCASIONAL GUST OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MODEL GENERATION OF WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE SLOWED ITS
PROJECTED PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
CLEAR OF US TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN
BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE HEART OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE. WITH NO SUN TO COMPETE WITH...SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WEST OF THE
RIDGE TO MIDDLE 20S EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES
SATURDAY MORNING OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THAT POINT...THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. POPS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE JUST
INDICATED LOW CHC POPS IN THE WEST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS
OBTAINED FROM THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A HIGHLY
KINEMATIC...PACIFIC BASED SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BUT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR OUR AREA. YIELDED TOWARD THE
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS IN THE LAST TWO PERIODS TO BETTER AGREE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL YIELD TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MIXING HAS ERODED THE COLD WEDGE IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT A NARROW
PATCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. WITH HEATING AND MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AROUND 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND
05Z/1AM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1007 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1007 AM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
CAPTURE SUNSHINE NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE IMAGES. USED A
BLEND OF CANDIAN AND HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND
MODEL TRENDS. LEANED TOWARDS THE WARM MOS FOR LATE MORNING WITH
THE SUNSHINE IN THE WEST. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HRRR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION NOT RETURNING TO AFTER 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
AND PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TIMING OF
FRONT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z. THE CAPE LOOKED
MARGINAL/WEAK THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF WARM LAYER AT 700 MB. AS
OF 13Z DAY ONE CONVECTION OUTLOOK STILL HAS OUR REGION IN THE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH THE MRGL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. MORE CHANGES LATER
THIS MORNING.
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT WEDGE REMAINED IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TOWARD DANVILLE AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ELEVATED OVER A
SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION. JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION
LEVEL...STRATUS HAD FORMED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE IN THE CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REPORTED.
LATEST HRRR AND WRF RUNS HAD BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WEDGE
BREAKING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LIFTING AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORECAST AREA IS OUT OF THE WEDGE AND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT EVEN WITH THE WARMING...ONLY
MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED DUE A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 4AM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PITTSBURGH TO LITTLE ROCK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO DIG IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS EVENING. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS AN HOUR OF
TWO FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE NAM AND GFS. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AROUND 00Z/8PM AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 05Z/1AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. AIR MASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
OCCASIONAL GUST OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MODEL GENERATION OF WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE SLOWED ITS
PROJECTED PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
CLEAR OF US TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN
BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE HEART OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE. WITH NO SUN TO COMPETE WITH...SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WEST OF THE
RIDGE TO MIDDLE 20S EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES
SATURDAY MORNING OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THAT POINT...THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. POPS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE JUST
INDICATED LOW CHC POPS IN THE WEST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS
OBTAINED FROM THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A HIGHLY
KINEMATIC...PACIFIC BASED SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BUT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR OUR AREA. YIELDED TOWARD THE
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS IN THE LAST TWO PERIODS TO BETTER AGREE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL YIELD TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR SHOWED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
OUT OF THE KLYH BY 13Z/9AM. BUFKIT FORECAST SHOWED CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A SHALLOW BUT STRONG
INVERSION. PERSISTENT WEDGE AND INVERSION WILL BREAK THIS
MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AT KROA/KBCB/KDAN AND KLYH BY 17Z/NOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ONCE THE WEDGE ERODES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AFTER 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND 05Z/1AM. EXPECT
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AT 20 TO
30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
727 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT WEDGE REMAINED IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TOWARD DANVILLE AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ELEVATED OVER A
SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION. JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION
LEVEL...STRATUS HAD FORMED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE IN THE CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REPORTED.
LATEST HRRR AND WRF RUNS HAD BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WEDGE
BREAKING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LIFTING AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORECAST AREA IS OUT OF THE WEDGE AND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT EVEN WITH THE WARMING...ONLY
MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED DUE A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 4AM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PITTSBURGH TO LITTLE ROCK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO DIG IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS EVENING. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS AN HOUR OF
TWO FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE NAM AND GFS. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AROUND 00Z/8PM AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 05Z/1AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. AIR MASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
OCCASIONAL GUST OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MODEL GENERATION OF WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE SLOWED ITS
PROJECTED PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
CLEAR OF US TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN
BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE HEART OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE. WITH NO SUN TO COMPETE WITH...SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WEST OF THE
RIDGE TO MIDDLE 20S EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES
SATURDAY MORNING OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THAT POINT...THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. POPS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE JUST
INDICATED LOW CHC POPS IN THE WEST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS
OBTAINED FROM THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A HIGHLY
KINEMATIC...PACIFIC BASED SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BUT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR OUR AREA. YIELDED TOWARD THE
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS IN THE LAST TWO PERIODS TO BETTER AGREE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL YIELD TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR SHOWED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
OUT OF THE KLYH BY 13Z/9AM. BUFKIT FORECAST SHOWED CEILINGS
LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A SHALLOW BUT STRONG
INVERSION. PERSISTENT WEDGE AND INVERSION WILL BREAK THIS
MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AT KROA/KBCB/KDAN AND KLYH BY 17Z/NOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ONCE THE WEDGE ERODES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AFTER 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND 05Z/1AM. EXPECT
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AT 20 TO
30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TRAILED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT WEDGE REMAINED IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING TOWARD DANVILLE AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ELEVATED OVER A
SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION. JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION
LEVEL...STRATUS HAD FORMED IN ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE IN THE CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REPORTED.
LATEST HRRR AND WRF RUNS HAD BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE WEDGE
BREAKING IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG
LIFTING AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORECAST AREA IS OUT OF THE WEDGE AND INTO
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT EVEN WITH THE WARMING...ONLY
MARGINAL CAPE IS EXPECTED DUE A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 4AM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM PITTSBURGH TO LITTLE ROCK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO DIG IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT. SHOWERS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS EVENING. 00Z LOCAL WRF WAS AN HOUR OF
TWO FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE NAM AND GFS. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
AROUND 00Z/8PM AND EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 05Z/1AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. AIR MASS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 10MB/6HRS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED
OCCASIONAL GUST OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MODEL GENERATION OF WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE SLOWED ITS
PROJECTED PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
CLEAR OF US TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL WAVES BEING DRIVEN
BY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GENERATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS
MUCH COLDER COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE HEART OF THE VERY COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE. WITH NO SUN TO COMPETE WITH...SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS WEST OF THE
RIDGE TO MIDDLE 20S EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES
SATURDAY MORNING OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S
EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO COME
AROUND TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. THE GFS
IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN
THE PATTERN IN PLACE AT THAT POINT...THE GFS FORECAST SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE. POPS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE JUST
INDICATED LOW CHC POPS IN THE WEST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS
OBTAINED FROM THE MODELS ON THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A HIGHLY
KINEMATIC...PACIFIC BASED SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS COULD BE A
SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BUT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR OUR AREA. YIELDED TOWARD THE
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS IN THE LAST TWO PERIODS TO BETTER AGREE WITH
NEIGHBORS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL YIELD TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM EDT THURSDAY...
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CAROLINA
AND MOVING NORTH INTO VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFKIT FORECAST
SHOWED CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER A
SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSION. HAVE ADDED LLWS INTO THE KBLF AND
KLWB TAFS FOR THIS MORNING.
PERSISTENT WEDGE AND INVERSION WILL BREAK THIS MORNING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR WITH WINDS
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 17Z/NOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION JUST AFTER 00Z/7PM AT KLWB AND KBLF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH KLYH AROUND 04Z/MIDNIGHT AND KDAN AROUND 05Z/1AM. EXPECT
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AT 20 TO
30 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VERY CHILLY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS AROUND -30C. KGRB 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS BASE OF STRONG INVERSION AROUND 800 MILLIBARS WITH
MOISTURE IN THE 800-850 MILLIBAR LAYER. SOUNDING HAS THE
INVERTED-V APPEARANCE. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS CIG HGTS MOSTLY AOA
MVFR LEVELS THOUGH SOME MVFR UPSTREAM IN NRN WI. SOME DECREASE IN
LLVL RH NOTED TONIGHT THOUGH 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT
SHIFT SE OF WI UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SHSN CHCS NEAR
KMKE TAF TNGT WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FOR A
TIME...ESP BLOW 850 MILLIBARS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ESP FRI
AFTN FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED INTO SW PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA...WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN WI WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEEPENING 50 MB
TROUGH.
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK WILL SETTLE OVER
SRN WI TODAY WITH COLD ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A
SECONDARY TROUGH...AND HOW SOON. MOS GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITY
FORECASTS INDICATE LOWER DECK DROPPING INTO AREA MID-LATE MORNING.
WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS IN
THE SW CWA WITH A BIT OF MORNING SUN.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH 925 MB COLD POOL BRINGING LOWS IN
THE TEENS TONIGHT. DELTA T/S AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 6K TO 7K
FEET BRING A POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WITH
NORTH FETCH LIMITS POTENTIAL OVER LAND TO LOCATIONS RIGHT NEAR THE
SHORE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH FAVORABLE
DELTA T VALUES ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS A WORST SHOULD
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. GFS ONLY MODEL TO BRING IN LIGHT QPF
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY IN THIS AREA. WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THIS
AREA FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF IN LATER FORECASTS.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AS WELL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRENDS WITH COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY. GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES...AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH DO SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GFS KEEPS BEST QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SOLID AREA OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...AND IN
THE FAR EAST SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE MILDER TEMPERATURES OCCUR.
MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS
A LOW WITH A STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME QPF. THE GFS IS DRY DURING THIS TIME. KEPT LOW END POPS FOR
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.
THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED QPF MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. KEPT CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. MILDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WITH SOME CLEARING OF STRATUS DECK INTO SW
PORTIONS OF FORECAST...THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPSTREAM
VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL SETTLE OVER SRN WI TODAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH...AND HOW
SOON. MOS GUIDANCE AND SREF PROBABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE LOWER
DECK DROPPING INTO AREA MID-LATE MORNING. WILL ADJUST FOR INITIAL
CLEARING AT ISSUANCE TIME...BUT OVERALL WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLOUD COVER BUT KEEP IT AT VFR LEVELS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING BEHIND COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING IT OUT
OVER THE LAKE. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR KMKE...AND POSSIBLY KENW TO BE
BRUSHED BY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BETWEEN 03Z
AND 09Z BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS...BUT WITH OFFSHORE FETCH LIMITING WAVE HEIGHTS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS NEARING CRITERIA TONIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. NORTH FETCH WILL BUILD WAVES
TO 4 TO 6 FEET OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SUBSIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH EASING WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
538 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.
WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.
A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.
BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
BIG THREAT TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. WILL SLOWLY
RAISE POPS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (ONLY
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT). IF PCPN DOES GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOST AREAS WILL GET PCPN IN THE FORM OF
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO THE 40S.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.
THE ONE DRY PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TO TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ABOUT A 24
HOUR PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. IT WILL BE MILDER DURING THIS EVENT...WITH MAINLY
RAIN EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.
IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.
SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A
LITTLE SNOW AROUND TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THEN IT
CLEARS OUT TONIGHT TURNING QUITE COLD ONCE MORE. SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT
BRING SOME SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...WE ARE STILL WITH A PESKY AREA OF SNOW...THE
RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SARATOGA
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CAPITAL REGION JUST NORTHEAST OF
ALBANY. OVER THE PAST HOUR...THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY CONTRACTING
AND WEAKENING. WE BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WHICH WAS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WE ISSUED ANOTHER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW...AND OF MORE CONCERN...POSSIBLE BLACK ICE AS AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OUR OFFICE...MAIN ROADS WERE "WET" WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO BELOW FREEZING.
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE SPEWING SOME FLURRIES BUT
ALL AREAS WILL LEFT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. UPSTREAM...A LARGER MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH. AT THE SAME TIME...AN OCEAN STORM WILL
DEVELOPING OFF CAPE HATTERAS. WHILE THE MAIN STORM WILL SLIP WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTERACTION BETWEEN ITS CIRCULATION...THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING THROUGH...WILL LIKELY INDUCE A TROWAL WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR
EAST THIS STEADY SNOW GETS. PAST EXPERIENCES HAVE INDICATED THAT
OFTEN TIMES...THIS SETUP PRODUCES STEADY SNOW FURTHER WESTWARD THAN
MOST MODELS INDICATE...ESPECIALLY WHEN THERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN ALL OF THIS.
WE LEANED WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATES UP TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY. WHILE NOT GOING
THAT HIGH (MANY MEMBERS WERE LOWER) ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO
SEEMED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR ALBANY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST AND
LOWER WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE A TAD LIGHTER
THAN THIS...MOSTLY KEEPING THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE 06Z NAM.
A SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BACK IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE MORNING AND AGAIN...WHERE ITS WESTERN ENDS UP WILL
DETERMINE WHO GETS MEASURABLE SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. WE EXPECT THE
SHIELD TO END UP IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MAYBE AT TAD FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS AND
CATSKILLS. HOWEVER...IN THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE COULD WRING A LITTLE SNOW ON ITS ON...PROBABLY BELOW AN
INCH. FURTHER EAST...LOOK FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE TACONICS BERKSHIRES
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER
HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AS THE GOOD FROTONGENSIS REMAINS TO OUR EAST.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT SNOW...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING (IF AT ALL) IN THE VALLEYS...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...ADDING TO THE
CHILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MIGHT STILL BE IMPACTING OUR WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IN SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN AND WITH THAT WILL
COME EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LOWS WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FROM HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN CATSKILLS.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE CREST TO OUR SOUTH. THE
AIR WILL BE COLD BUT THE STRENGTHENING SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
CHILL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 IN
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A CLIPPER TYPE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO APPROACH. IT LOOKS AS IF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK IN MOST AREAS
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD WITH MAYBE AN OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION...JUST ENOUGH TO SLICK UP ROADS FOR THE MONDAY DRIVE.
BY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...A SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S (BUT NOT 50S) ACROSS OUR REGION. THAT WOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (A STEEP LAPSE RATE) THERE
COULD BE GRAUPLE AGAIN (LIKE LAST WEEK). AS THE COLD FRONT SLAMS
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY...ANY SHOWERS COULD TURN BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARROW BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE.
IT CLEARS OUT LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMES VERY COLD. SUNSHINE RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MORE RAIN OR SNOW
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL SLOW ANY RISE.
SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS (1-4 INCHES).
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
TODAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.
A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.
SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.
AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM KGFL TO ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH OR KALB HAS PRODUCED A NARRWO BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPSF AS SOME OF THE SNOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KPSF...AND ALSO BECAUSE CIGS AT KPSF
ARE ALREADY NEAR IFR LEVELS.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES...IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES AS MOISTURE IS PUSH
WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z...AND AT KPSF THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS ON SATURDAY TO BE
MVFR TO JUST ABOVE MVFR AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU...EVEN WHEN NOT SNOWING.
AFTER 23Z...KGFL/KALB/KPOU SHOULD ALL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITONS. AT
KPSF...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 15
KTS POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. TUESDAY: LOW
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...BASED ON RADARS TRENDS AND SOME GROUND TRUTH WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS (TO CATEGORICAL) AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
NE AREA OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RADAR SIGNATURE LOOKS A LITTLE LIKE
MHC BUT NOT COMPLETELY AS THE WINDS ARE NNW AT KALB AND N KGFL (BOTH
OF WHICH ARE NOT IDEAL FOR MHC). THOSE AREAS LOOK TO GET 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVITY VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WAS DETECTED BUT WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
THE SNOW THEN IS THE RESULT OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/PARTIALLY MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TRAVERSING THROUGH THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND
A NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVANCING DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF SNOW HAS LOOKED TO
HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK AND WAS ACTUALLY CONTRACTING A LITTLE. THE
LATEST HRRR INDICATED THAT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 400 AM AS THE COLD FRONT AND VERY SMALL BUT POTENT IMPULSES MOVE
ON BY.
SOME SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR OFFICE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT THESE POSSIBLE TRENDS.
AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHES...A MUCH BIGGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE AREA...AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE ALBANY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROUGH SETTING
UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...AN ADDITIONAL COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.
A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR ARE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ION/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.
WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIGS BETWEEN
FL050 AND FL120 WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. THEN SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE AROUND 18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
331 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR EARLY SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THROUGH MID WEEK.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A STRONG 500 MB DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING
THE COAST THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM MARION TO LORIS
AND SOUTHPORT...ALTHOUGH EVEN HERE I AM FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO
BELIEVE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT OF
LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP IN THE ONGOING
COLD ADVECTION AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 2000 FEET THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS (AS
LOW AS -6C TO -8C) SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION SHOULD TURN NEUTRAL TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS THE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE EAST...EXPECT SOME THIN STRATOCUMULUS
TO DEVELOP AT THE TOP OF A DEEP DAYTIME MIXED LAYER. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 52-57 RANGE FROM LUMBERTON TO
GEORGETOWN...WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 55 TODAY.
TONIGHT WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTING A FREEZE TO OCCUR IN ALL BUT
SOME BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WERE A BIT COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND MAY BE 1-2 DEGREES
TOO COOL NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT DIE DOWN
BELOW 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THERE SHOULD BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH MAY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S. A HARD FREEZE LIKE THIS COULD
BE VERY DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED EARLY-BLOOMING PLANTS. GARDENERS AND
FARMERS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS LATE
SEASON FREEZE AND TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)
WILMINGTON 31 IN 2011
FLORENCE 28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 31 IN 2013
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE 5H TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TO
START THE PERIOD WILL EXIT EAST...LEAVING A FLAT/PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL
SHIFT OFF THE COAST LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH STEADY INCREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND...THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...SO ALL OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO. WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS IT IS STARTING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE POP UP BUT
WORDING WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER
THAN SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WARMER START
TO THE DAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD TUE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST WED AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AND
THU AS IT HELPS LIFT THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE
AREA NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE WAVES OVERALL IMPACT ON THE AREA
WILL BE LIMITED OWING TO ITS WEAK NATURE.
GFS/ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN AT ODDS WITH HANDLING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT/CORRECT
WITH RECENTLY...INCLUDING THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS THIS
WEEKEND AND THE COLD FRONT LATER MON. AS SUCH HAVE LEANED
FORECAST IN FAVOR OF THE GFS SOLUTION. COLD FRONT APPEARS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE ONE TO START THE WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE
SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR. THE PARENT LOW IS DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE FRONT LACKS DYNAMICS. SOME PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND NARROW BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED SILENT POP FOR THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO TUE CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO TUE
NIGHT AND REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT KFLO/KLBT FAIRLY CONFIDENT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR SINCE RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS CIGS WILL BE VFR BUT
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR.
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE NW AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE BEING LOWERED
THIS MORNING AS SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH WITH THE SHORT
FETCH ON NORTHWESTERLY (OFFSHORE) WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS
WEATHER MODELS...MAKING THIS A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SEAS REMAIN AS HIGH AS 6 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND CAPE FEAR
HARBOR BUOY. 2 FOOT SEAS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY. THESE READINGS VALIDATE THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL WHICH IS
THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW SUN WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SUN NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST.
RETURN FLOW STARTS INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE A
SOLID 20 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT MON AFTERNOON AND A SHORT
DURATION SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED AT A LATER DATE. FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MON EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING MON NIGHT.
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION OR GRADIENT POST FRONT WILL
KEEP WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT SUN AND 2 FT OR LESS SUN NIGHT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON
ON THE BACK OF INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW. DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE
FLOW MON NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD ON TUE WILL DRIFT
OFFSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GRADIENT
DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST WED AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGING DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3
FT EACH DAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
539 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW AT LNS AT TIMES.
09Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR SNOW ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
434 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
931 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WELL-DEFINED BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN THAT MIGRATED SLOWLY
WSWD FROM THE SUSQ VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.
ALTHOUGH THIS FORCING MECHANISM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BREAK
UP INTO A FEW AREAS...THE LATEST 11Z RAP SHOWS THAT THE LULL IN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES SHOULD BE BRIEF AS A
DISTINCT POCKET OF STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES OF GRTN 6C/KM
SLIDES SE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE/STRATOCU CLOUD DECK ALSO COINCIDES
NICELY WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DSN THERMAL RIBBON OF -12 TO
-18C...SO WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS REINVIGORATED TO SOME
EXTENT BETWEEN 15-20Z /WITH BRIEF SQUALLS POSSIBLE/ FROM KUNV AND
KIPT...SOUTH TO KTHV AND KLNS. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND SUSQ REGION WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISC BELOW...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN TAF SITES
THROUGH TODAY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS BETWEEN 15-20Z.
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WRN MTNS OF PENN /KJST
NORTH TO KBFD/.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST.
AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES UP TO 5-7 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON NW
WIND GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20KT RANGE WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF THE
EASTERN GR LAKES TO PASS PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD EARLY TODAY. STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE WEAK
ASCENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC AND THE RAP
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE LOCALIZED SNOW SHOWERS WE
HAVE GOING ON FROM JUST EAST OF THE OFFICE OUT TO ABOUT
WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STRETCHES IT OUT FROM NNW TO SSE AS THE UPPER LOW/HEIGHT
FALLS SETTLE SOUTHEAST.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HEADING OFF TO SE TO BE MOVING OUT OF PA BY
LATE DAY. MODELS USE THE COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE AN AREA OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM FROM 850-700MB. I WOULD NORMALLY
GET A LITTLE MORE EXCITED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR ABOUT LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB WHICH LIMITS DEEPER INSTABILITY. STILL
WITH UPPER TEMPS SO COLD...IF WE CAN BREAK OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE A FEW SQUAT STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.
AT THIS POINT I USED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS SINCE THE SREF LOOKED
TOO WET AND DISPLACED FROM THE BEST LAPSE RATES...AND THE MOS POPS
LOOKED TOO LOW. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH CHC POPS THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE END OF THE DAY BECOMING
DRY.
I`LL STICK WITH MY ASSESSMENT FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT TODAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNTIL LATER NEXT FALL OR EARLY
WINTER. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WILL BE SOME 20-30 DEG
BELOW NORMAL. A GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...MORE
LIKE JANUARY THAN THE LAST DAYS OF MARCH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUNGE INTO
THE SINGE NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH TO AROUND 20 OVER THE SOUTH. IF
WINDS DROP OFF TO CALM...SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO COULD HAPPEN OVER
THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AFTER THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER HIGHS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WHILE MILDER THAN TODAY...WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEG BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
AND ON THE COOL SIDE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BOUT OF
THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR CHILLY POST FRONTAL STRATOCU AND MOUNTAIN
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS FOLLOWED IN QUICK SUCCESSION BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE AN INTERESTING
LOOKING SURFACE LOW THAT THEY TAKE SE THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PA ALONG A TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON. AT THIS TIME ALL I HAVE MENTIONED
FOR PRECIP IS RAIN. FCST 850 TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO CONSIDER SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF THE LOW...BUT THE FACT IT IS
COMING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...I AM
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST SNOW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MIDWEEK WE SHOULD SEE UPPER HEIGHTS REBOUND AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER
THE PARENT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER HUDSON`S BAY AND EVEN DROPS
SOUTH IN TIME...REINFORCING THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN US BY
WEEK`S END. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE FLOW INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC NW MORE THAN THE DEEP
ARCTIC...SO TEMPS WHILE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME COLD WE HAVE ENDURED FOR SO MUCH OF THE
TIME SINCE FEBRUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW AT LNS AND MDT AT TIMES.
12Z TAFS ADJUSTED FOR SNOW ETC.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTING IN DEFORMATION SNOW DEVELOPING
BETWEEN UNV AND IPT AS OF 1 AM.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TAFS BASED ON THIS...HARD TO SEE MUCH
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
WED...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE RAIN/SNOW MIX SPREADING INTO THE
MEMPHIS AREA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. MID-LEVEL FORCING RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE PRECIP CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
FORCING/PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
INCLUDE RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX IN MEMPHIS AREA AND CONTINUE MIX THROUGH
18Z.
EARLY 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT COOLER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FREEZE WARNING AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WILL INVESTIGATE FURTHER AS THE FULL 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES.
GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FREEZE AND FROST WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH...BUT AS COLD AS THE MIDDLE
20S IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
IS FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
INTO WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A VORT MAX TRACKS FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS AREA. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AND RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...NO MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AS A
REGION OF NVA SHIFTS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S AREA WIDE...AROUND 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AREA WIDE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL APPROACH SEASONAL
NORMALS...IN THE 60S AREA WIDE.
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. NO OVERLY ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED...THE COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE...THE COLDEST
READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S...BUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE 40S. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KJBR AREA THIS
MORNING. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN AND CEILINGS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. AT THE OTHER TAF SITES ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MISSISSIPPI.
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-
PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ITAWAMBA-
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-UNION.
TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
130 PM PDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
PRODUCING SLIGHT COOLING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A
COOLING TREND TO THE REGION. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/ TODAY...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...DOWN 6-9 DEGREES FROM 20Z FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE RECORD WARMTH FRIDAY...NEITHER BAKERSFIELD NOR FRESNO
SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH BOTH
CITIES CAME CLOSE. FRESNO MISSED ITS RECORD BY ONE DEGREE AND
BAKERSFIELD MISSED ITS RECORD BY TWO DEGREES.
ONE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WAS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR ONLY HAS SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF
240+ JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...ALTHOUGH SURFACE-
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -3 /OVER EASTERN FRESNO AND
MADERA COUNTIES/ AND 850-MB THETA-E PEAKS AT 332 K /OVER
NORTHEASTERN TULARE COUNTY/. DESPITE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS...THE TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE
MINIMAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND EXPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY /1700
PDT THIS AFTERNOON/.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 5790 METERS. THE NAM-12 IS
UNSTABLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES OF 1300
JOULES/KG...SURFACE-COMPUTED CAPES AS LOW AS -5 AND 850-MB THETA-E
PEAKING AROUND 333 K. THE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MORE MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE...SO THERE WILL
BE A BETTER...ALBEIT STILL LOW...CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT...THE LATEST /20Z/ RFC QPF
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE UP TO 0.02 INCH OF RAIN FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL
PARK TO HUNTINGTON LAKE.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN MONDAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA THE NEXT DAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A STRONGER TROUGH TO REACH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...AND IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...YET ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE STATE NEXT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
THE RESULT OF THESE SYSTEMS IS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL SEE WARMING BACK TO AROUND 90 MONDAY...THEN COOL
DOWN TO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
FROM THIS TROUGH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOUNTAIN CUMULUS SO HAVE BOOSTED SKY COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA TUESDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH TOKEN POPS FOR THE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY SYSTEMS AT
THIS TIME PENDING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND/S TROUGH WHERE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 22KT WILL BE LIKELY AT TERMINALS KMCE/KMER UNTIL
06Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-28 85:1986 53:1982 57:1957 33:1972
KFAT 03-29 87:1969 47:1982 59:1986 32:1891
KFAT 03-30 85:2003 52:1936 58:1978 31:1897
KBFL 03-28 88:1893 53:1998 58:1957 24:1907
KBFL 03-29 94:2004 55:1998 58:1978 23:1907
KBFL 03-30 88:1923 57:1904 59:1978 30:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1151 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ
909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIR MASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE VERY WIND
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
VCTS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IF A THUNDERSTORM HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A
TAF SITE...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. AFTER 6 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END AND RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.
BMICKELSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREEN UP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1059 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...FELT IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO MENTION THESE IN THE WEATHER
FORECAST GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 80M HRRR SHOWING 60-80KT
WINDS...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
LOOK ORGANIZED ON THE HRRR WITH QPF PLOTS SHOWING "FINGERS" MOVING
ENE INTO THE SE ZONES. COORDINATED WITH NWS BILLINGS OFFICE ON THIS
AND WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TFJ
909 AM UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TODAY WHERE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. NAM ADVERTISING A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR BOTH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE NORTHERN BORDER.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT FEEL THAT WITH THE GFS
JOINING THE WETTER CAMP THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY WORK MORE WITH
GENERATING SHOWERS THAN WIND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NOT CHANGE
HEADLINES BUT DID TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED OK. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
REPLACE THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE TREASURE STATE...AND
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES...AMPLIFYING THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING 40-60KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED IT TO
INCLUDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH INVERTED V PROFILES
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LAPSE RATE COULD RESULT SOME THUNDER ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COOLER AND WETTER
AIRMASS WRAPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS REBOUNDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT. EBERT
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SO MARCH GOES OUT LIKE A LAMB. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SLAMS
INTO THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
DIVIDE AND REACHES NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH A CLOSED OFF SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS WET AND COOL WAVE. SO APRIL
BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-ON WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK A RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD UP OVER MONTANA. HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC FALL OUT OF PHASE
HERE AND DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
SCT
&&
.AVIATION...
AFTER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LOWER CLOUDS AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KTS IN SOME PLACES. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THREATEN THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM HAPPENS
TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND
STRENGTH RAPIDLY DIMINISHES.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV CEILOMETER IS OUT. UNTIL IT RETURNS...AMD LTD TO
VIS AND WIND.
SCT/BLM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S
ESPECIALLY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 WHICH WILL PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20S AGAIN TODAY. CONSIDERING PRE GREENUP DRY
FUELS AND THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...WILL UPGRADE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 135..135 AND 137 TO A
RED FLAG WARNING AND ADD ZONE 122.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. INITIALLY THESE COULD BE HIGH BASED
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL WIND GUSTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WETTER
AS THEY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ122-135>137.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
MCCONE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FOR GARFIELD...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR PLOTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JETSTREAK OF AROUND 115 KNOTS EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
WEAKER JETSTREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT 500 MB...A STRONG TROUGH WITH 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER 100 METERS WAS OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC INITIALIZATIONS
AT 08Z SHOWED THAT THE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ON
THE INCREASE. LOOK FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS...
GENERALLY 50 TO 55 EAST AND 55 TO 60 WEST.
TONIGHT...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM CDT. LIFTED INDICES GET TO ZERO OR LESS AND SO ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
NEAR THE FRONT EARLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY AND LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO
20 MPH RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WHICH BUILDS EAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH OVER HALF AN INCH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT DROPS OFF LATER IN THE WEEK...SO FOR NOW STILL
KEPT A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. DID GIVE THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
MORE WEIGHT THAN THE GFS SINCE THE ECMWF HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
CANADIAN MODEL.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A FEW MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE. DID THROW IN A PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL
THREE SITES OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 48 73 42 73 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 49 73 41 76 47 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 69 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
BORGER TX 50 75 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 47 75 43 76 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
CANYON TX 47 74 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 48 76 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALHART TX 44 71 41 75 46 / 0 0 0 5 5
GUYMON OK 49 72 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 44 74 40 73 47 / 0 0 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 50 74 43 74 50 / 0 0 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 50 72 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 49 77 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 50 79 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
316 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VERY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY. THAT IS THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN A
NUTSHELL. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER
IN THE TYPICALLY WIND PRONE AREAS. WILL KEEP THAT HIGHLIGHT GOING AS
SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
BOARD AS OF 20Z WITH MANY AREAS CLOSING IN ON RECORDS. KCYS REACHED
73 F A SHORT TIME AGO...ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE CURRENT RECORD. THINK
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LATE AFTN
HOURS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS WE ARE AT PEAK MIXING. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH RECENTLY.
A FEW CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER FAR NORTHWEST WY LATE THIS AFTN WITH
EXCELLENT PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENTS POST-FROPA
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
BETWEEN H8-H7 AFTER 00Z OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. WHILE THIS
WILL GO BEYOND PEAK MIXING...WE DO EXPECT A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WITH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND WEAK PVA IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IN FACT...A FEW CUMULUS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO POP UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS BENEATH SHOWERS...SO A STRAY 50 KT GUST IS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ALOFT. LLVL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES STEEP OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO ACTUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM CONFIDENT
IN A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
MAIN SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN
MT. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OF
SIGNIFICANCE. THE GFS SHOWS H7 TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +7 DEG C
THIS AFTERNOON TO -5 DEG C BY NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER TOMORROW...BUT STILL A PLEASANT AFTN
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LESS WIND TOO WITH THE H85 CAG-CPR
GRADIENT LESS THAN 10 METERS. TRANQUIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING
THINGS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN TO WARMTH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
HEADLINES ON TUES AND WED. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON TUES WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 5C. TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WHICH WILL CAUSE MIN RH VALUES TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS...HOWEVER THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD HIGHER WINDSPEEDS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TUES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA ON WED...AND THIS WILL RESULT SOME COOLING BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COOLING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
STRONGER (GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS). THUS...WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
ATTENTION ON THURS AND FRI THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT
COULD BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE CWA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO
NEVADA/UTAH ON THURS THEN MOVING ACROSS COLORADO ON FRI. THERE IS
SOME PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION FROM THURS AFTN INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.75 INCHES OFF THE GFS AND
ECMWF. OF COURSE THERE ARE LOCATION DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF
TARGETING AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHEREAS THE GFS IS
FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DID INCREASE POPS
INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WOULD BE IN STORE
FOR FRI. APRIL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO START OUT WET AFTER A VERY
DRY MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY WITH 20-25 KTS OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE SITES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY UNDER THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW HUMIDITIES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-310.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
NEZ002-003-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH