Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN
AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...A NEARLY
STATIONARY WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FORT SMITH
TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS
POINT...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. LATEST
RUNS OF HRRR HAS A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND FOLLOWING CLOSE TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED. THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE TORNADO THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THESE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY
HIGH LCL VALUES. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS DO SUGGEST THESE MAY FALL
A BIT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY
ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AFTER
00Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY OUTRACES THE STORMS. CONTINUES TO
LOOK THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED NW OF
THE CWA.
LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH UPPER ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH...SOME SMALL
CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER...THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LESSEN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FEATURES IN EXPECTED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 78 48 56 36 / 50 80 50 20
CAMDEN AR 83 58 61 42 / 20 40 50 10
HARRISON AR 76 44 55 34 / 50 90 30 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 55 61 39 / 30 70 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 54 60 39 / 20 70 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 80 56 61 37 / 10 30 70 10
MOUNT IDA AR 80 53 62 35 / 40 80 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 45 57 35 / 50 90 30 20
NEWPORT AR 78 49 57 34 / 40 80 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 80 56 58 40 / 10 50 60 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 52 60 37 / 50 80 30 10
SEARCY AR 78 51 57 36 / 30 70 50 10
STUTTGART AR 79 55 57 39 / 10 60 60 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
ARE PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE METRO AREA. THE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW IS PUSHING SOUTH. SO EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TODAY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES TOO. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 2 INCHES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 1
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES WITH IT
THRU LATE AFTN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN
CO WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW MAINLY NLY BEHIND THE FNT.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THRU MIDDAY HOWEVER BY AFTN
SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS AS MID LVL DESCENT DVLPS. THUS
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THRU THE AFTN HOURS.
OVER NERN CO FCST IS MORE COMPLICATED. WITH NLY LOW LVL FLOW AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WY BORDER MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN LATER THIS MORNING
THRU THE AFTN HOURS WHILE AREAS FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
SEE THE BEST CHC. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL IN THE AFTN. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LYR OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO ERODE AS
THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION
OCCURS. MEANWHILE WET BULB ZEROS SUGGEST PCPN MAY FALL MOSTLY AS
SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OVER THE
SRN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP
TONIGHT DUE TO HOUR TO HOUR INCONSISTENCIES WITH WITH REGARDS TO
PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO
HOWEVER THE FAR NERN CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S WHERE PCPN
POTENTIAL AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS.
FOR TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING IN THE
MTNS...SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO
DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST IS THE
CAUSE. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR
THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN NORMAL PATTERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON FRIDAY
THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
SOME AROUND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO
CAPE PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
THAT THERE IS A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE
GFS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY ONLY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-7 C OVER TODAY`S HIGHS.
FRIDAY`S READINGS ARE ANOTHER 3-6 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING.
ON SUNDAY...THERE IS EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
THING PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RIDGING AND WEAK ZONAL
FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS WAY MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALL FOUR DAYS COMPARED TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF. REALLY
THERE IS LITTLE GOING ON AND GFS HAS SOME MINOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE WITH NOTHING ON THE ECMWF. WILL GO
WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 17Z TO
18Z AND THEN IMPROVE. IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO CAN`T BE
RULED OUT. CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FEET UNDER THE SNOW
SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY THROUGH 00Z AND THEN SWITCH SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
359 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES WITH IT
THRU LATE AFTN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN
CO WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW MAINLY NLY BEHIND THE FNT.
IN THE MTNS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THRU MIDDAY HOWEVER BY AFTN
SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS AS MID LVL DESCENT DVLPS. THUS
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THRU THE AFTN HOURS.
OVER NERN CO FCST IS MORE COMPLICATED. WITH NLY LOW LVL FLOW AREAS
CLOSER TO THE WY BORDER MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN LATER THIS MORNING
THRU THE AFTN HOURS WHILE AREAS FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
SEE THE BEST CHC. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL IN THE AFTN. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LYR OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO ERODE AS
THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION
OCCURS. MEANWHILE WET BULB ZEROS SUGGEST PCPN MAY FALL MOSTLY AS
SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OVER THE
SRN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP
TONIGHT DUE TO HOUR TO HOUR INCONSISTENCIES WITH WITH REGARDS TO
PCPN POTENTIAL.
AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO
HOWEVER THE FAR NERN CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S WHERE PCPN
POTENTIAL AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS.
FOR TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING IN THE
MTNS...SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO
DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST IS THE
CAUSE. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR
THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN NORMAL PATTERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON FRIDAY
THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS
SOME AROUND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO
CAPE PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW
THAT THERE IS A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE
GFS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY ONLY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-7 C OVER TODAY`S HIGHS.
FRIDAY`S READINGS ARE ANOTHER 3-6 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING.
ON SUNDAY...THERE IS EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
THING PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RIDGING AND WEAK ZONAL
FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS WAY MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALL FOUR DAYS COMPARED TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF. REALLY
THERE IS LITTLE GOING ON AND GFS HAS SOME MINOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE WITH NOTHING ON THE ECMWF. WILL GO
WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 14Z THRU 21Z PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCES STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF DIA. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE AFTN. ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD STAY ON GRASSY AREAS AND BE AN INCH
OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. THE THREAT OF SNOW AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY
END BY 00Z. CEILINGS WITH THE PCPN MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT
WITH VISBILITIES MOSTLY IN THE 3-5 RANGE UNLESS A HEAVIER SHOWER
MOVES ACROSS.
AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BECOME LIGHT SSE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
CDFNT WAS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL WELD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS BEFORE
12Z. WINDS WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND THEN
BECOME MORE NNW BY 21Z. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NWLY
AND THEN WILL TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN NOW OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN
VT SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND AREAS MAINLY E OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. PRECIP IS MUCH MORE SPOTTY TO THE WEST. WE
EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND OF DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW IN VALLEYS...AND SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINATE IFR OR LIFR. THE FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM KGFL TO
ALLOW SOME DRY AIR TO WORK IN ENOUGH TO BRING SOME VFR CONDITIONS
THERE WHILE EVERYONE ELSE WAS IFR OR EVEN LIFR.
WE NEVERTHELESS PLACED A TEMPO FOR IFR AT KGFL AS THERE IS AT
LIKELYHOOD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING BACK INTO THAT TAF
SITE WHICH WOULD LIKELY REDUCE CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO
IFR THROUGH 04Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IFR
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
AFTER 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT ALL THE TAFS
EXCEPT KGFL (VCSH). CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED) WHICH COULD TAKE US TO THE MORNING PEAK (12Z-14Z). AFTER
THAT...ENOUGH DRY AIR LOOKS TO BRING CONDITIONS BARELY INTO THE VFR
RANGE (CIGS REMAINING 3500-4000 FEET) THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS TONIGHT...10-15
KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
748 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...TACONICS AND INTO SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA.
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...RAIN IS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING
TO SNOW...ESP AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH 9 PM. MEANWHILE...OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
EXPANDING INTO WESTERN MA...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
THROUGH 10 PM.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SE LITCHFIELD CO...WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST...AS THE FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF
MOST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTH OF
LITCHFIELD CO OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER S AND
E...TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE LOWER 40S AND INTO THE UPPER 30S
BY 10 PM.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNT NOW LOOK TO AROUND ABOUT HALF AN
INCH...PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SERIOUS HYDRO ISSUES. MORE
ABOUT OUR HYDRO CONCERNS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR HYDRO SECTION.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MIDNIGHT TO
AROUND 600 AM. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
1 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 4 INCHES (HIGHER TERRAIN). ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE A COATING TO TWO INCHES OF
DAY. VALLEY AREAS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER
TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINATE IFR OR LIFR. THE FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM KGFL TO
ALLOW SOME DRY AIR TO WORK IN ENOUGH TO BRING SOME VFR CONDITIONS
THERE WHILE EVERYONE ELSE WAS IFR OR EVEN LIFR.
WE NEVERTHELESS PLACED A TEMPO FOR IFR AT KGFL AS THERE IS AT
LIKELYHOOD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING BACK INTO THAT TAF
SITE WHICH WOULD LIKELY REDUCE CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO
IFR THROUGH 04Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IFR
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
AFTER 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT ALL THE TAFS
EXCEPT KGFL (VCSH). CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED) WHICH COULD TAKE US TO THE MORNING PEAK (12Z-14Z). AFTER
THAT...ENOUGH DRY AIR LOOKS TO BRING CONDITIONS BARELY INTO THE VFR
RANGE (CIGS REMAINING 3500-4000 FEET) THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS TONIGHT...10-15
KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
519 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 519 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD CHANCE OF SLEET WITH ONSET
OF PRECIP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY AND WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS...SLEET WILL NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED SURFACES.
A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS
RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SLEET WAS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 6 PM.
RAIN/SLEET IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290K SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE
ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY
DRY INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB-
FREEZING AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT.
RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND
AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE-
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO
THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH
TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE
NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL
PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN
WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE
LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID
30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE
BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO
RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF
ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN
THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS
AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT-
SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY
ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON.
WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN
CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S
FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON
TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH
MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR
MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT
RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH
RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE
BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
456 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS RAIN WAS FALLING JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. RAIN
IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE
ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT.
RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND
AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE-
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO
THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH
TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE
NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL
PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN
WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE
LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID
30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE
BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO
RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF
ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN
THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS
AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT-
SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY
ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON.
WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN
CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S
FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON
TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH
MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR
MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT
RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH
RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE
BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS RAIN WAS FALLING JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. RAIN
IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K
SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE
ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING
AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT.
RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND
AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME
LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE-
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO
THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF
MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH
TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE
NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL
PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN
WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE
LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID
30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE
BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO
RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS
OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF
ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN
THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS
AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT-
SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY
ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON.
WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN
CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S
FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON
TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS.
THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH
MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/
UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR
MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT
RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH
RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE
BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW
INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST
NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE
SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CONTROL ONTARIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS BY 4 PM...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 5-6 PM...AND
GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 6 PM. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL
ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS
THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO
WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO
END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH
FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A
POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL
GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND
SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL
THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER
DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT
FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE
M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN
INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW
GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF
THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN
AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND
EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME
ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S
OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT
OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE
RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD
FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY
MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK
IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS
INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE
METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC
FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT
NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS
DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE
BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE
STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
108 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CONTROL ONTARIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A
PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN WESTERN
AREAS BY 4 PM...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 5-6 PM...AND
GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 6 PM. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL
ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION.
THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS
THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO
WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO
END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH
FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A
POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL
GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND
SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL
THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER
DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT
FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE
M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN
INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW
GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF
THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN
AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND
EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME
ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S
OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES RATHER QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY INCREASING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN
AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS THERE
WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS TODAY AND CONTINUING AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD
FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY
MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK
IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS
INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE
METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC
FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT
NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS
DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE
BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE
STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA SLOWLY
TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS AND BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL
PUSH BACK START TIME OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS
NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THESE SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT
RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR
THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE
CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA.
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED
BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS
LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO
USED A BLEND AGAIN.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF
DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE
TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS
LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO
STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW
DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR
LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
(WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS
OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE
KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING
THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID-
LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER
OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
POOL.
THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER
19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z
AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50
KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT
WINDS AT 2000 FT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A
LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA
CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY
NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL
INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND
SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS
FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JMC/JP
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
945 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER
WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE SFC HIGH TO
DRIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED
OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NY AND PA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEARLY CALM...A S/SE BREEZE WILL
COMMENCE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF THE RETREATING
ANTICYCLONE...AND THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SFC
WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CNTRL ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST 12Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE
ARRIVING IN WESTERN AREAS BY 20Z...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
21Z...AND GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 21Z-22Z. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR
CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL
RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A
FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION.
THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS
THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO
WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO
END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH
FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE
GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A
POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL
GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN
CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND
SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE
OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL
THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER
DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT
FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE
M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND
MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE
REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN
INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW
GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF
THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN
AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND
EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME
ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S
OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND
20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST
TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER
40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES RATHER QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY INCREASING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN
AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS THERE
WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS TODAY AND CONTINUING AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND
THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW
PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER
AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD
FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY
MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK
IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE
SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS
INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE
METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC
FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT
NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS
DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE
BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE
STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.
RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA
MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 61 74 / 20 60 40 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 87 63 75 / 20 50 40 0
MIAMI 76 88 68 77 / 20 50 40 0
NAPLES 74 81 62 73 / 20 70 20 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
707 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A QUITE COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT
OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS BASIC SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. WILL SHADE POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH TO
50 PERCENT. THINK THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AFTER 06Z.
FRI...EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN
THE MORNING FROM THE DIMINISHING PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS THE BIG BEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE
MARCH AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS
NEAR 80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL CAUSE FAST MOVING CELLS. IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...MEANING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM
ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW/MID 80S.
FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
ERN CONUS...WITH SFC LOW PRES SCOOTING NEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CTRL-SRN CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY ENDING FROM N-S.
MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SURGES SWD BEHIND THE BDRY. SAT MORNING
LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING M-U40S ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA...WITH L50S TO THE SOUTH (M50S ACROSS
MARTIN/SERN ST LUCIE COS.
AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH
ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD RATHER
THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED
SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL
BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S
TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S
AND M50S NORTH TO L60S S/E MON NIGHT.
TUE-THU... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA NEXT
THU TO MAINTAIN LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
GULF AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING...SOME
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.
SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 79 49 67 / 50 80 10 0
MCO 70 78 52 71 / 40 80 10 0
MLB 72 83 50 71 / 40 80 20 0
VRB 67 84 52 72 / 40 80 20 0
LEE 70 77 46 70 / 50 80 10 0
SFB 69 78 50 69 / 50 80 10 0
ORL 71 78 52 70 / 50 80 10 0
FPR 69 85 55 70 / 40 80 30 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI/JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
550 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL COUNTIES THRU 15Z.
TODAY-TONIGHT...
H100-H70 EXTENDING BTWN THE MID ATLC COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK/FL
STRAITS WILL PUSH SEAWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PREVAILING
MID/UPR LVL ZONAL WIND PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...
A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL WILL COLLAPSE...ALLOWING LOW/MID
LVL WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW.
ALOFT...MID LVL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GOMEX WILL PUSH A VERY STABLE
H85-H70 THERMAL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL FL...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE LYR...RANGING FROM
ARND 3.0C/KM OVERHEAD TO BLOW 2.0C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX WITH H70
TEMPS BTWN 8-10C BLANKETING ITS ERN HALF. VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT
WILL CONTINUE WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 50-60PCT WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED TO THE S/E ARE
THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND ASSCD WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THRU THE FL PENINSULA ON MON.
RUC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING AS MID LVL VORTICITY
IS LIMITED WHILE THE 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE DEEP S IS
NEITHER STRONG ENOUGH NOR CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE. EVEN SO... ISOLD SHRAS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE GULF
STREAM FOR SVRL HRS...LARGELY DUE TO THE LCL INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE...BUT WRLY FLOW ABV H85 HAS KEPT THESE OFFSHORE.
STRATUS DECK HAS REFORMED AND WILL REQUIRE A FEW HRS TO BURN OFF.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR A LITTLE FASTER TODAY AS SW WINDS ALOFT TAP A
SLUG OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL AIR OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. SLGT CHC
OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST S OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIP OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT WITH GENERAL QPF AOB 0.10"
SFC/LOW LVL WINDS BCMG MORE ERLY TODAY ALONG WITH GREATER HEATING
POTENTIAL WILL ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS ALONG WITH THE
DVLPG ERLY FLOW. LIGHT SRLY FLOW DVLPG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70S ALONG THE E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THU-FRI NIGHT...
LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS MOISTURE
NORTH . DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSH RAIN CHANCES TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT FRI.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH
THE AREA.
SAT-MON...
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
U.S. BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT AND
SUN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXCEPT AROUND 70 MARTIN COUNTY SAT AND THE 70S ON SUN.
TUE-WED...
DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MON AND LOW 80S TUE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE MORNING AND LOW/MID 60S WED
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 26/12Z
SFC WIND: THRU 25/15Z...N/NE AOB 5KTS. BTWN 24/15Z-24/18Z...BCMG E
6-9KTS CONTG THRU 25/03Z. AFT 25/03Z...SE AOB 5KTS.
VSBY/WX: THRU 25/15Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR IN BR/FG...AFT 25/08Z LCL
MVFR BR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KOBE THRU THE PD.
CIGS: W OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH
LCL VLFR AOB FL004...BTWN 25/15Z-24/17Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030...AFT
25/17Z VFR. E OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING VFR WITH PDS OF
MVFR BTWN FL010-020...AFT BTWN 24/15Z VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL COLLAPSE A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL THRU THE DAY. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL
RESPOND BY VEERING FROM A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE THIS MRNG TO A GENTLE
TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THIS AFTN... THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT AREAWIDE...BUILDING UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM.
THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THU SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THU THROUGH
FRI MORNING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 7 FEET
OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET SUN AND 2
TO 4 FEET MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 66 83 65 / 10 10 30 40
MCO 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 30 40
MLB 80 69 83 69 / 10 20 50 50
VRB 81 69 85 66 / 20 20 50 50
LEE 84 64 85 70 / 10 10 30 30
SFB 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 40 40
ORL 84 66 85 70 / 10 10 30 40
FPR 81 69 84 68 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
H100-H70 EXTENDING BTWN THE MID ATLC COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK/FL
STRAITS WILL PUSH SEAWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PREVAILING
MID/UPR LVL ZONAL WIND PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...
A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL WILL COLLAPSE...ALLOWING LOW/MID
LVL WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW.
ALOFT...MID LVL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GOMEX WILL PUSH A VERY STABLE
H85-H70 THERMAL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL FL...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE LYR...RANGING FROM
ARND 3.0C/KM OVERHEAD TO BLOW 2.0C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX WITH H70
TEMPS BTWN 8-10C BLANKETING ITS ERN HALF. VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT
WILL CONTINUE WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 50-60PCT WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED TO THE S/E ARE
THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND ASSCD WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THRU THE FL PENINSULA ON MON.
RUC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING AS MID LVL VORTICITY
IS LIMITED WHILE THE 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE DEEP S IS
NEITHER STRONG ENOUGH NOR CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE. EVEN SO... ISOLD SHRAS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE GULF
STREAM FOR SVRL HRS...LARGELY DUE TO THE LCL INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE...BUT WRLY FLOW ABV H85 HAS KEPT THESE OFFSHORE.
STRATUS DECK HAS REFORMED AND WILL REQUIRE A FEW HRS TO BURN OFF.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR A LITTLE FASTER TODAY AS SW WINDS ALOFT TAP A
SLUG OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL AIR OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. SLGT CHC
OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST S OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIP OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT
THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT WITH GENERAL QPF AOB 0.10"
SFC/LOW LVL WINDS BCMG MORE ERLY TODAY ALONG WITH GREATER HEATING
POTENTIAL WILL ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS ALONG WITH THE
DVLPG ERLY FLOW. LIGHT SRLY FLOW DVLPG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70S ALONG THE E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
THU-FRI NIGHT...
LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS MOISTURE
NORTH . DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSH RAIN CHANCES TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT FRI.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH
THE AREA.
SAT-MON...
NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
U.S. BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT AND
SUN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXCEPT AROUND 70 MARTIN COUNTY SAT AND THE 70S ON SUN.
TUE-WED...
DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MON AND LOW 80S TUE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE MORNING AND LOW/MID 60S WED
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 26/12Z
SFC WIND: THRU 25/15Z...N/NE AOB 5KTS. BTWN 24/15Z-24/18Z...BCMG E
6-9KTS CONTG THRU 25/03Z. AFT 25/03Z...SE AOB 5KTS.
VSBY/WX: THRU 25/15Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR IN BR/FG...AFT 25/08Z LCL
MVFR BR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KOBE THRU THE PD.
CIGS: W OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH
LCL VLFR AOB FL004...BTWN 25/15Z-24/17Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030...AFT
25/17Z VFR. E OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING VFR WITH PDS OF
MVFR BTWN FL010-020...AFT BTWN 24/15Z VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL COLLAPSE A REMNANT
FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL THRU THE DAY. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL
RESPOND BY VEERING FROM A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE THIS MRNG TO A GENTLE
TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THIS AFTN... THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT AREAWIDE...BUILDING UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM.
THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THU SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THU THROUGH
FRI MORNING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 7 FEET
OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET SUN AND 2
TO 4 FEET MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 66 83 65 / 10 10 30 40
MCO 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 30 40
MLB 80 69 83 69 / 10 20 50 50
VRB 81 69 85 66 / 20 20 50 50
LEE 84 64 85 70 / 10 10 30 30
SFB 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 40 40
ORL 84 66 85 70 / 10 10 30 40
FPR 81 69 84 68 / 20 20 50 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.
FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.
AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.
ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.
CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.
THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.
FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.
AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.
ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.
CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.
THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.
FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.
AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.
ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.
CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.
THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB
TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.
FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.
AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.
ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.
CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.
THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW
SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING
TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE
UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING
TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING
ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE
TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE
BLUEGRASS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 85H
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -14 C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S STILL
LOOK GOOD. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
U.S. SHIFTS EAST AND THE MEAN FLOW DEAMPLIFIES OVER OUR REGION. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS
POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS
UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND
WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW
SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING
TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE
UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING
TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING
ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE
TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE
BLUEGRASS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE
MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT
THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY.
THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE
TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO
MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT
WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO
CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH
BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS
AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN
CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS
POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS
UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND
WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1044 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM
FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW
SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING
TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE
UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO
MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING
TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING
ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE
TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE
BLUEGRASS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE
MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT
THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY.
THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE
TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO
MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT
WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO
CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH
BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS
AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN
CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MIX OUT BY AROUND
14Z...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...AND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ENGAGING DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS DUSK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER
THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING
TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING
ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE
TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE
BLUEGRASS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE
MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT
THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY.
THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE
TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO
MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT
WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO
CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH
BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS
AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN
CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MIX OUT BY AROUND
14Z...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...AND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ENGAGING DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS DUSK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER
THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015
Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening. Have
upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across
portions of southern IN and northern KY. This should quickly push
east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before
the convection currently over MO arrives.
The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across
portions of Illinois and northern IN. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better
low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past
hour. With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence
passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much
reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern
IN/northern KY. Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers
with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern
IN and extreme northern KY. Further south, have trimmed back pops
as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability
will be waning. In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry
tonight into Wednesday morning.
Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015
Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing
trends. Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this
evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another
over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to
increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool
airmass in place over the Ohio Valley. There has recently been a
report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast
MO. The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability
axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening,
so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western
KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN
and central KY.
However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis
working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening
into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly
ejecting out of the Central Plains. Therefore, have introduced
thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight
hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY. Cannot
completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust
updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest.
Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection
currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn.
However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused
convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of
instability will be passing to the north as well. Will continue to
keep up with trends this evening as things unfold.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015
Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across
south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of
light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64
corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and
north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky.
Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level
jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds
increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the
north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in
response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning.
Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp
curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening,
and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates
more of a mixy boundary layer.
Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday
morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will
really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break
from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for
much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering
cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a
fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine
could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon.
Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE
through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip
with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer
will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal
svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial
in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch
during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding
is possible under the heavier pockets of rain.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015
The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends
Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming
weekend.
The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a
deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be
tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer,
moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and
are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a
very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the
course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing
differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a
non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into
the 40s by afternoon for much of the area.
Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb
moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday
morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal
rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper
level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet.
There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The
upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night,
so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during
the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look
reasonable.
Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains
will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this
time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead,
soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to
spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal
profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan
on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds.
850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or
about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory
but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s
regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations
fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t
fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive
vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing
temperatures expected.
Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming
weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow
looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of
highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this
time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough
coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder
temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning. A
surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue
to lift northward during the overnight hours. Some VCSH will be
possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to
the northeast. Current thinking is that much of the precipitation
will pass to the north of KSDF. As the frontal boundary lifts
northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then
veer to the southwest toward morning. As we head toward dawn,
ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR
levels around 25/11-13Z. This MVFR will be short lived as
conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR
levels. The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a
steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals. The next round of
convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the
forecast period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.
&&
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAINTAINING SOME LIGHTNING BUT WEAKENING
OVERALL. RUC SFC-750MB STARTING LVLS FOR COMPUTED LI SHOWS
INCREASING STABILITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM SEMO INTO SRN IL
AND SW IN...LOWEST CHANCE ACROSS WEST KY OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SMALL HAIL BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST NORTH OF KPOF TO BETWEEN
KPAH/KCEY TO NEAR KHOP. TEMPS STILL MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 60S
SOUTH. WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
LAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA WHILE PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI SUB-SEVERE
HAIL AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RESPITE FOR OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID AFTERNOON ON AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW/FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACH OUR REGION.
THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...THE APPROACH OF A SHARP UPSTREAM H5
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. WITH 1.5-2 INCHES OF QPF
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FROM 7
PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. ALSO DURING THIS
PERIOD...GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS DIPPING TO AT
OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF OUR CWA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
COVER ANY TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION THAT MAY ALREADY BE BUDDING DUE
TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH HAS
SEEMINGLY BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE...WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY AND
RATHER MOIST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION.
ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHARPENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. THESE CHILLY HIGHS
ARE SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 5.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE MINUS 10 ISOTHERM AT 850
MB WILL PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE IS NOW RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL-SCALE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS SE MISSOURI LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COATING OF WET SNOW APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING
VERIFIES.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS IF
THE FRONTAL TIMING IS FAST ENOUGH.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
RATHER ISOLATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN RAIN...THOUGH THE REDUCTIONS WERE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES BY TO THE NW...WINDS WILL VEER IN DIRECTION...GUSTING UP
TO 20 KTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT. FEWER CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN DURING THE DAY WED AS A GENERALLY SRLY LIGHT WIND WILL
CONTINUE. NEAR 06Z THU/AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY FOR THE WRN TAF SITES.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
637 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH
AND EAST AND NOW INCLUDES THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF BLOSSOMING PRECIP
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS STILL
BELOW FREEZING... BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME OF THE NEW ADVISORY
AREA.
PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.
QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC
TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT
AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A
LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY
ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION
BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER
REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING
AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY
AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A
DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST
AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU.
FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR
FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS
DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY
REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF
SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER
IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER
REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT
XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD
TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM
POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN
TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES
INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ003>006-011-
013-014-016>018-501>508.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026>031-040-
051>055-057-501-502-505>508.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...HAS/GMS
MARINE...HAS/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
438 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEADLINE UPDATE...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A
COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
A CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF BLOSSOMING PRECIP ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING...
BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME OF THE NEW ADVISORY AREA.
PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION.
QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC
TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT
AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A
LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY
ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION
BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER
REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING
AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY
AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A
DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST
AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU.
FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR
FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS
DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY
REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF
SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER
IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER
REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT
XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD
TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM
POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN
TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES
INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ016-017-501-
502.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026>031-040-
051>053-055-057-501-502-505>508.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS/IR
AVIATION...HAS/GMS
MARINE...HAS/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES
HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS
MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE
NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT
AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A
LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY
ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION
BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER
REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING
AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON
HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS.
MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO
OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS
FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY
AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM
AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A
DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST
AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT
AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT
POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY
MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU.
FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR
FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS
DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY
REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF
SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER
IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER
REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT
XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD
TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM
POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE.
SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN
TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES
INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY
BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026-027-029-
507-508.
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050-055-
501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS/IR
AVIATION...HAS/GMS
MARINE...HAS/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LEAD
ENERGY RESULTED IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL TODAY. CLOSER TO
HOME...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS ALLOWED SFC
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. DRY AIR MASS/SUBSIDENCE
ASSOC WITH THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...SSE WINDS
OFF LAKE MI HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE 30S) OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVER THE
FAR WEST WHERE READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN PLAINS. 12Z MODELS
STILL INDICATE LEAD ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS NE/KS THIS AFTN TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO 2 SFC LOW CENTERS AT 12Z WED...ONE OVER NW MN AND THE SECOND
IN THE VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI. FOR THE FCST AREA...THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD PASS BY TO THE SE OF
HERE...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS SNOW AS IT ARRIVES
FROM THE S AND SW LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES (PARTICULARLY THE NAM...WHICH SHOWS
A FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY SFC LOW THAN REST OF MODELS)
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF -FZRA CLOSE TO LAKE MI AND FAR ERN PORTION
OF CWA AS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE
AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MOSTLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF ALL AVBL
GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT POPS/QPF TONIGHT INTO WED. RESULT IS PCPN
SPREADING N AND NE INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. IT`S POSSIBLE THE
SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE OVER THE FAR N AND E FCST AREA UNTIL 12Z WED OR
AFTER. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
NORTH TO 0.25 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY 12Z. AS NEG-TILT
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL LIFT INTO ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS
PARTICUALRLY THE NAM AND REG-GEM SHOW A SECONDARY MAX OF PCPN OVER
NW MQT COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FGEN/DEFORMATION SO HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOTAL
QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM .30 INCH OR
MORE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH
.25 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THIS LINE. VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND HEALTHY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON 290K SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT PCPN RATES
DURING PEAK FORCING WHICH REACHES THE WI BORDER IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL AROUND
750MB...SHORT DURATION OF STRONG FORCING (3-6 HRS) AND LOWER SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1 MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING ADVY LEVEL. QPF AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH
SLR OF 10:1 RESULTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA STAYING BTWN 2.5
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WILL JUST CONTINUE THE
SPS AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MQT-BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. WL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND
SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SPS.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FM WEST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST ALLOWIN FOR DRY SLOT TO MOVE
INTO UPPER MI. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER THE NW
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX
INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP
FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY
12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR
(ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF
OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO
THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN
ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY
(25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINES.
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT
TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT).
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS
NORMAL.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE
DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH.
FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY
OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE
ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z
AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK
OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
-SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MN AND S LAKE MI WILL MERGE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT E ACROSS ONTARIO BY THE END
OF THE DAY AT WHILE DEEPENING. A LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EXIT TO THE SE THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW N GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY N AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.
EXPECT A LOW OVER MANITOBA ON THURSDAY TO BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO S MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SWING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS NEARING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW TO W WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND LINGERING OVER THE
E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1209 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LEAD
ENERGY RESULTED IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL TODAY. CLOSER TO
HOME...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS ALLOWED SFC
HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. DRY AIR MASS/SUBSIDENCE
ASSOC WITH THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...SSE WINDS
OFF LAKE MI HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE 30S) OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVER THE
FAR WEST WHERE READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN PLAINS. 12Z MODELS
STILL INDICATE LEAD ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS NE/KS THIS AFTN TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO 2 SFC LOW CENTERS AT 12Z WED...ONE OVER NW MN AND THE SECOND
IN THE VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI. FOR THE FCST AREA...THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD PASS BY TO THE SE OF
HERE...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS SNOW AS IT ARRIVES
FROM THE S AND SW LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES (PARTICULARLY THE NAM...WHICH SHOWS
A FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY SFC LOW THAN REST OF MODELS)
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF -FZRA CLOSE TO LAKE MI AND FAR ERN PORTION
OF CWA AS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE
AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MOSTLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF ALL AVBL
GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT POPS/QPF TONIGHT INTO WED. RESULT IS PCPN
SPREADING N AND NE INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. IT`S POSSIBLE THE
SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE OVER THE FAR N AND E FCST AREA UNTIL 12Z WED OR
AFTER. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
NORTH TO 0.25 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY 12Z. AS NEG-TILT
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL LIFT INTO ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS
PARTICUALRLY THE NAM AND REG-GEM SHOW A SECONDARY MAX OF PCPN OVER
NW MQT COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FGEN/DEFORMATION SO HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOTAL
QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM .30 INCH OR
MORE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH
.25 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THIS LINE. VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND HEALTHY
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON 290K SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT PCPN RATES
DURING PEAK FORCING WHICH REACHES THE WI BORDER IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL AROUND
750MB...SHORT DURATION OF STRONG FORCING (3-6 HRS) AND LOWER SNOW TO
WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1 MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING ADVY LEVEL. QPF AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH
SLR OF 10:1 RESULTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA STAYING BTWN 2.5
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WILL JUST CONTINUE THE
SPS AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MQT-BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. WL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND
SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SPS.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FM WEST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST ALLOWIN FOR DRY SLOT TO MOVE
INTO UPPER MI. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER THE NW
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX
INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP
FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY
12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR
(ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF
OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO
THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN
ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND
POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY
(25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINES.
AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT
TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT).
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS
NORMAL.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE
DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH.
FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO
RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY
OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE
ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z
AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK
OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
-SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20 KT TONIGHT INTO WED AS LOW PRES
TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE LAKE BTWN ONE LOW PRES CENTER MOVING E
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE OTHER LIFTING NE THRU LWR MI INTO
ONTARIO. THE TROF WILL DROP S OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS
AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AND IT`S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI
AS THE HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 25 KT
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRES DROPS SE FM MANITOBA TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TO 25 KT WL SHIFT W-NW SUN AFTERNOON
BEHIND TROF PASSAGE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD.
STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR
NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN
BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL.
THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING
WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND
CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO
PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE
HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM
AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE
SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY
GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM
TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY
GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE
SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE
RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL
CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.
GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS
IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST
CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS.
TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH
GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY
PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS
OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS
NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL
CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS
WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN
BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO
FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT
PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT
THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING
CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG
PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR
OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL
VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LARGE STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS MN AND WI.
HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS
CURRENTLY BLOWING A HOLE IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THAT TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE
THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...EXPECTING RADIATIONAL HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING TO HELP THE CLOUD BASE TO LIFT ABOVE 3K FT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VERY STRONG WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN REALIZED
TODAY AT THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
KMSP...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE WITH VFR EXPECTED
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FORECAST ON TRACK AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. PRECIP DEPARTING EAST IN THE MORNING...SKIES CLEARING
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING NW 15-20G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-
054>058-064.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD.
STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR
NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN
BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL.
THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING
WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND
CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO
PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE
HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM
AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE
SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY
GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM
TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY
GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE
SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE
RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL
CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.
GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS
IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST
CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS.
TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH
GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY
PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS
OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS
NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL
CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS
WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN
BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO
FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT
PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT
THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING
CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG
PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR
OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL
VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS ACROSS MN WILL QUICKLY PUSH LIFR
VIS/CIGS OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR TIMING HAS BEEN PRETTY
GOOD ON IMPROVEMENTS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW IT FOR TIMING
IMPROVEMENTS INTO TAFS. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TIMING CHANGES
FROM EXISTING TAFS. VFR CIGS ARE WORKING INTO WRN MN...BUT THEY
ARE QUICKLY GETTING FILLED BACK IN BY MVFR CLOUDS DIVING SE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...SO ANY VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED OUTSIDE OF RWF.
BKN-OVC 015-025 CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP AT AXN. PRECIP TODAY WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE MPX TERMINALS...THOUGH WRAP AROUND PRECIP BAND WILL GET CLOSE
TO AXN THIS MORNING.
KMSP...LIFR CONDS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE RIGHT AROUND 12Z. MAY HAVE
SOME VFR CONDS BRIEFLY THROUGH 14Z...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL
BACK IN AS WE GET A BKN-OVC STATOCU DECK GOING WITH A LITTLE
MIXING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST...WITH SOME
CROSS WIND ISSUES LIKELY BEFORE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE 270 AROUND
14Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS
MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY
CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD.
STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR
NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN
BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL.
THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING
WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND
CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO
PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE
HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM
AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE
SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY
GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM
TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY
GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY
MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE
SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE
RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL
CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.
GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS
IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST
CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS.
TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH
GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST
PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY
PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS
OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF
IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS
NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF.
OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL
CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS
WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP
SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN
BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO
FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT
PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT
THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING
CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG
PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR
OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL
VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN
PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST...TAPERING
OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT MSP AND CONTINUING THROUGH 09-12Z
AT EAU AND RNH. BEHIND THE SNOW...IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
KMSP...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 06Z...BUT IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AROUND 17Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE
WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN
17Z-01Z. GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS EARLY.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NNW 15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ025>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE
TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/
&&
.AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX
OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 78 58 72 39 / 6 7 70 29
MERIDIAN 77 59 76 42 / 12 7 59 43
VICKSBURG 78 59 69 40 / 5 4 69 19
HATTIESBURG 78 59 76 44 / 12 7 63 34
NATCHEZ 76 60 71 41 / 5 4 70 26
GREENVILLE 76 57 65 39 / 5 17 62 14
GREENWOOD 78 58 67 37 / 5 10 61 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO
THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL-
CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE
MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT
WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS
OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE
ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER
CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY
HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY
TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A
MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA
AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL
BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE
BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR
MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY./17/
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 58 72 39 / 6 7 70 29
MERIDIAN 78 59 76 42 / 12 7 59 43
VICKSBURG 79 59 69 40 / 5 4 69 43
HATTIESBURG79 59 76 44 / 12 7 63 34
NATCHEZ 77 60 71 41 / 5 4 70 26
GREENVILLE 77 57 65 39 / 5 17 62 14
GREENWOOD 79 58 67 37 / 5 10 61 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
EC/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
All convection has ended across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas for tonight. There will be brief break in the weather
tonight before more active weather returns Wednesday.
Near term forecast has been updated to reflect precipitation and
sky cover trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern.
Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress
east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern
cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming,
mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of
low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over
the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the
boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among
others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z
close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be
a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken
line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this
afternoon and early this evening.
ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a
narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than
adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3
km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to
develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level
moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail
given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a
possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero),
again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low
level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough.
The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly
move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more
limited instability.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
A second shortwave, more positively tilted, will make it`s way
through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected.
Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive
rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa.
Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually
coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of
southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main
storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail
and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern
MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training
storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts
hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO
where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at
a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still
ironing out the details.
Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper
level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime
temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small
scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some
light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend
develops late in the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
Pilots can expect VFR conditions the remainder of tonight with more
active weather returning Wednesday. Surface winds will become
light and variable overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon
bringing areas of MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will continue
to deteriorate into Wednesday night as a cold front moves across
the region and widespread rainfall continues. Widespread MVFR to
areas if IFR conditions can be expected Wednesday evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-094>098-102>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS WITH CONVECTIVE
LOOKING SIGNATURES ON PRECIPITATION COMING OFF THE SNOWY
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF BILLINGS. INCREASED POPS SOME OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS REGION CONTINUES WITH
THE ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT THROUGH NOON IN GOOD SHAPE. INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH IS COVERED WELL FOR NOW. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT START MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DURING THE NIGHT...CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED RIGHT NEAR
A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND LAUREL SOUTHEASTWARD TO FORT
SMITH AND SHERIDAN. THAT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACTED WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED EVEN
IN BILLINGS AS OF 3 AM MDT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY NEVER DID MAKE
IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS LIKE WE HAD
EXPECTED...LEAVING RED LODGE AND COMPANY WITH MUCH LESS SNOW THAN
FORECAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR CAPTURES THIS SIGNAL
WELL AND SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE
AND SO WE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS.
WE DID DECIDE TO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN AROUND BILLINGS
THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT MOISTURE...AND A WIND
FIELD THAT WILL WEAKEN AND LIKELY TURN BACK LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHES OUT.
FOR TODAY...WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THAT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCE...BUT WE DECIDED
TO CAP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN MOST LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS UNTIL NOON MDT
SINCE THEY WILL CATCH A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. WE ARE
CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F TODAY...BUT THERE IS
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS THAT LOWER
CLOUD DECK TO NOT BREAK OVER MILES CITY UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL LATER IN BAKER...SO FORECAST HIGHS
IN BAKER ARE BELOW MOST 00 UTC GUIDANCE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S F.
TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT...TAKING A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE ALONG WITH IT.
THURSDAY...THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT IS
GOING TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SO WE HAVE LINGERED A LOW-
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY THERE. HOWEVER...THE DRYING
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SHOWN IN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
ENOUGH FOR US TO SWITCH TO A DRY FORECAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHERE A WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ABOVE 60 F IN MANY AREAS PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. 700MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +2C SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.
BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE PER PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BOTH
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER IS NOW
SHOWING A SHARPER TROF WITH LESS SPLITTING OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND BUT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER POST
FRONTAL COOLING. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG
PREFRONTAL WARMING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN TO THOSE WITH FIRE
WEATHER INTERESTS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DAY IN THE MORNING
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS AND POPS...HAVE LOWERED
EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT IN OUR NW BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE
WITH EXPECTATION OF A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON FROPA. COULD
SEE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND BROADUS.
WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 70F ON
MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT US NEXT
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE ENERGY
WITHOUT MUCH AMPLITUDE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS EAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR LOCALLY THAT WILL LIFT OUT BY 17Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. AS CLOUDS
BREAK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 039/063 043/073 049/073 040/065 041/070 045/065
3/W 21/N 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
LVM 050 037/062 042/072 049/067 037/065 040/068 042/058
2/W 21/N 10/N 02/W 21/B 11/B 24/W
HDN 054 032/064 037/074 040/074 035/066 035/072 039/068
3/W 21/E 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
MLS 049 030/057 038/070 041/074 034/063 037/069 038/067
1/B 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W
4BQ 048 029/057 036/070 040/076 035/064 036/070 039/069
1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W
BHK 039 025/048 031/064 037/073 033/061 033/066 037/066
1/E 32/W 21/E 02/W 20/U 00/U 12/W
SHR 047 031/058 038/070 039/076 035/065 035/070 038/069
4/W 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
329 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT START MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DURING THE NIGHT...CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED RIGHT NEAR
A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND LAUREL SOUTHEASTWARD TO FORT
SMITH AND SHERIDAN. THAT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACTED WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED EVEN
IN BILLINGS AS OF 3 AM MDT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY NEVER DID MAKE
IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS LIKE WE HAD
EXPECTED...LEAVING RED LODGE AND COMPANY WITH MUCH LESS SNOW THAN
FORECAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR CAPTURES THIS SIGNAL
WELL AND SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE
AND SO WE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS.
WE DID DECIDE TO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN AROUND BILLINGS
THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT MOISTURE...AND A WIND
FIELD THAT WILL WEAKEN AND LIKELY TURN BACK LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHES OUT.
FOR TODAY...WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THAT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCE...BUT WE DECIDED
TO CAP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN MOST LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS UNTIL NOON MDT
SINCE THEY WILL CATCH A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. WE ARE
CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F TODAY...BUT THERE IS
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN
MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS THAT LOWER
CLOUD DECK TO NOT BREAK OVER MILES CITY UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL LATER IN BAKER...SO FORECAST HIGHS
IN BAKER ARE BELOW MOST 00 UTC GUIDANCE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S F.
TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT...TAKING A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE ALONG WITH IT.
THURSDAY...THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT IS
GOING TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SO WE HAVE LINGERED A LOW-
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY THERE. HOWEVER...THE DRYING
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SHOWN IN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
ENOUGH FOR US TO SWITCH TO A DRY FORECAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHERE A WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ABOVE 60 F IN MANY AREAS PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. 700MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +2C SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.
BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE PER PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BOTH
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER IS NOW
SHOWING A SHARPER TROF WITH LESS SPLITTING OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND BUT THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER POST
FRONTAL COOLING. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG
PREFRONTAL WARMING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN TO THOSE WITH FIRE
WEATHER INTERESTS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DAY IN THE MORNING
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS AND POPS...HAVE LOWERED
EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT IN OUR NW BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE
WITH EXPECTATION OF A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON FROPA. COULD
SEE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND BROADUS.
WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 70F ON
MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT US NEXT
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE ENERGY
WITHOUT MUCH AMPLITUDE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM K3HT-KBIL-KSHR WILL PRODUCE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS THRU AROUND 12Z. A STEADY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
THEN OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. THERE IS A
RISK OF LOCALIZED FOG THRU AROUND 15Z IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
NIGHTTIME PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING KBIL. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH 18Z BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT THE MTNS AND AREAS MAINLY EAST OF KBIL TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL
MVFR POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 039/063 043/073 049/073 040/065 041/070 045/065
2/W 21/N 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
LVM 050 037/062 042/072 049/067 037/065 040/068 042/058
2/W 21/N 10/N 02/W 21/B 11/B 24/W
HDN 054 032/064 037/074 040/074 035/066 035/072 039/068
2/W 21/E 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
MLS 049 030/057 038/070 041/074 034/063 037/069 038/067
1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W
4BQ 048 029/057 036/070 040/076 035/064 036/070 039/069
1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W
BHK 039 025/048 031/064 037/073 033/061 033/066 037/066
1/E 32/W 21/E 02/W 20/U 00/U 12/W
SHR 047 031/058 038/070 039/076 035/065 035/070 038/069
3/W 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONE 98.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
129 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR CLOUD...PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO. AT THE
SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY SINKING TO
THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT
THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL
MORNING SO DOUBTFUL ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. DID
CHANGE THE WEATHER TYPE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS LAPS SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE WET BULB TRACE NEAR OR BELOW 0C. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH KIML DOWN TO 35 DEGREES NOW AND REPORTING SNOW.
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
AS CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL IN PLACE...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO THIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO
WARM THINGS UP A BIT. ANOTHER QUESTION THOUGH IS STRATUS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN IT WILL BREAK UP. ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...THE SUN
MAY HELP TO START THE PROCESS SO STILL THINKING THE SUN WILL SHINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
649 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC018 AT KVTN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS NEAR 33016G25KT CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT.
AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT -SHRA COULD PASS THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE WINDS
36014G24KT CAN BE EXPECTED 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR
AND NERN KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN
AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM
MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW
NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55
SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT
TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR
A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED
FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT
THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS
IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND 07Z WILL
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 10Z. WITH THE
FRONT...SOME LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...
THOUGH...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3500 FEET AGL WITH LITTLE
OR NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND WILL SWITCH TO 330-360 AND INCREASE
TO 15-20G25-30KT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY
FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY
HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE
PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN
ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING
TONIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN COLD FRIDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
240 PM UPDATE...
A WILD START TO THE DAY WITH THUNDER AND HAIL HERE AT THE OFFICE
AND ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN NY. ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL STILL FAR SOUTHEAST.
RAIN TO SNOW....A THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY IS ALLOWING FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE TEMP CHANGES. WE ARE 41 NOW
IN TOWANDA, BUT 56 JUST DOWN THE ROAD IN SCRANTON WITH SOME HINTS
OF SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THUNDER MAY
HAVE GIVEN US SOUNDS OF SPRING THIS MORNING WE ARE ANYTHING BUT SPRING
LIKE. MID TO UPPER 30S IS THE RULE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH AT THE
MOMENT AND TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH EVENING.
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE STILL SEEING JUST RAIN OVER OUR AREA BUT
HINTS OF A CHANGE TO SNOW ARE NOT FAR OFF. WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF
SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT HORNELL LAST HOUR, AND WITH SNOW AT FULTON,
I SURMISE WE ARE GETTING SNOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY ATTM. THE
LATEST RUC 850 MB OC LINE, ALONG WITH SURFACE TEMPS 36 DEGREES OR
COOLER SEEMS TO BE THE TRANSITION LINE TO AT LEAST A MIX OF SNOW.
THROUGH 0Z I SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ALL SNOW,
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BEING IN THE 33-36 RANGE.
BASED ON WEB CAMS IN THE BUFFALO AREA NOW AND SURFACE TEMPS MAINLY
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, I SEE UP TO A SLUSHY INCH THROUGH 0Z MAINLY
ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL NY DOWN THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES. MOST ROADS SHOULD BE PLENTY FINE WITH SUCH WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE SLIGHTLY COLDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALLOW A COATING TO 2
INCHES. ALSO IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE WE MAY BE CLOSER TO AN
INCH, THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE CITY. IN THESE TWO
AREAS, A LIGHT COATING CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON THE ROADS.
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA, THE MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE PULLING EAST. WITH THAT IN MIND
EXPECT A GRADUAL RAIN TO SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ANOTHER LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH AT MOST
TONIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE IN NY STATE AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THE FASTER CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
THUNDER CHANCES...UNLIKE EARLIER WHERE WE SAW CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WITH A SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, OUR THUNDER CHANCES
LATE TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT
CHANCES TO THE NEPA AND AT THAT, ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER AT BEST IS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM UPDATE...
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A BIT
UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN NY STATE AND
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT WILL BE THE TEMPS
THAT WILL BE THE BIG STORY. MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FRIDAY WILL BE
OUR "WARM" DAY, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER QUIET. TEMPS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 30S BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA/US WILL
RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SFC LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. INCLUDED CHC
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW TRACKS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL THEN RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST PD. THE LOWEST CONDS WILL BE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...WITH -RASN AND FOG HAMPERING VSBY`S THROUGH
02-04Z...AND LWR CIGS LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE NGT.
ON FRI...WE`RE ANTICIPATING CIG BASES TO ELEVATE INTO THE MVFR
CAT...WITH VFR PSBL AT KAVP DURG THE AFTN.
SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT OUT
OF THE NW ON FRI TO 8-10 KT.
.OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1022 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IS BEING
PRECEDED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE IS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR BLACKSBURG. MODELS STILL SHOW A
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT...ONLY REACHING THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNRISE... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS WELL TO THE WEST. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...MOSTLY OWING TO
A GOOD CAP AT 700MB AND NO INSTABILITY. SOME COOLING AT 700MB IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM OVER GA NOTED ON WATER VAPOR...SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS INTO THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER 06Z. EVEN THEN THE COVERAGE IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO WILL BE
REDUCING POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE BEST COVERAGE TO COME
POST-FRONTAL MORE TOWARD 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND
PW RISES TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. MOST GUIDANCE IS ALSO TOUCH WARMER
WITH TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...LIKELY DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEING SLOWED
BY THE MOUNTAINS. USING SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE
YIELDS UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850-700MB TROUGHS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY STABILIZING BY MID AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN WELL MIXED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT IN SPITE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE HAS MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME SO AM
MORE IN FAVOR OF MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NW TO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND SFC WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE AN ARGUMENT FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM THURSDAY...
TAFS HAVE BEEN AMMENDED TO REFLECT A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT WEATHER CONDITIONS OUTLINED BELOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...WITH TIMING THROUGH INT
AND GSO BETWEEN 05-08Z; RDU AND RWI BETWEEN 08-10Z; AND FAY BETWEEN
10-13Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SHARP WIND SHIFT
FROM SSW TO NW AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ANY SUCH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 12-18Z...AT WHICH TIME BLUSTERY SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE PROBABLE - HIGHEST AT EASTERN TAF SITES. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR...OR LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR...BY LATE
AFTERNOON - SLOWEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IS BEING
PRECEDED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS...THOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE IS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER NEAR BLACKSBURG. MODELS STILL SHOW A
RELATIVELY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT...ONLY REACHING THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
SUNRISE... WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS WELL TO THE WEST. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...MOSTLY OWING TO
A GOOD CAP AT 700MB AND NO INSTABILITY. SOME COOLING AT 700MB IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ALONG WITH A DISTURBANCE
UPSTREAM OVER GA NOTED ON WATER VAPOR...SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS INTO THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
AFTER 06Z. EVEN THEN THE COVERAGE IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO WILL BE
REDUCING POPS A BIT OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING THE BEST COVERAGE TO COME
POST-FRONTAL MORE TOWARD 12Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS THE AREA AND
PW RISES TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES. MOST GUIDANCE IS ALSO TOUCH WARMER
WITH TEMPS THROUGH 12Z...LIKELY DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEING SLOWED
BY THE MOUNTAINS. USING SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE
YIELDS UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850-700MB TROUGHS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY STABILIZING BY MID AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN WELL MIXED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT IN SPITE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE HAS MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME SO AM
MORE IN FAVOR OF MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NW TO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND SFC WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE AN ARGUMENT FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...WITH TIMING THROUGH INT
AND GSO BETWEEN 03-05Z; RDU AND RWI BETWEEN 06-08Z; AND FAY BETWEEN
09-12Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SHARP WIND SHIFT
FROM SSW TO NW AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ANY SUCH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 12-18Z...AT WHICH TIME BLUSTERY SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE PROBABLE - HIGHEST AT EASTERN TAF SITES. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR...OR LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR...BY LATE
AFTERNOON - SLOWEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/22
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
841 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z
DEPICT A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...MORE SO EAST HALF. SINCE ATMOSPHERE
WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST-SW...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOP...OTHERWISE MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER-FREE
WELL INTO THE EVENING. STEADY SW FLOW INTO THE EVENING WILL AID TO
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST LOCALES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS EVENING
AND MORE SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SW...SETTING UP AN
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT NW HALF...AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
MIN TEMPS FOR MOST FOLKS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH....50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850-700MB TROUGHS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY STABILIZING BY MID AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN WELL MIXED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT IN SPITE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE HAS MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME SO AM
MORE IN FAVOR OF MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NW TO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND SFC WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE AN ARGUMENT FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...
THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...WITH TIMING THROUGH INT
AND GSO BETWEEN 03-05Z; RDU AND RWI BETWEEN 06-08Z; AND FAY BETWEEN
09-12Z. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SHARP WIND SHIFT
FROM SSW TO NW AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ANY SUCH SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
BETWEEN 12-18Z...AT WHICH TIME BLUSTERY SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
WILL BE PROBABLE - HIGHEST AT EASTERN TAF SITES. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z FRI...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR...OR LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR...BY LATE
AFTERNOON - SLOWEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI NIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.
THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC
FRIDAY...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS
TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
WILL SCALE OFF ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH SNOW ENDING NORTH CENTRAL. SNOW CONTINUES OVER MY NORTHEAST
SO WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS WRAP
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EAST AND PREDOMINATELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06-07 UTC.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT ARE WET AND SLUSHY ROADS ICING UP AS SUB-
FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS OF 2 UTC.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...THIS TIME FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22
UTC...BLENDED TO THE 18-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BAND SO FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR
DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW
TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE
ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF
1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMARE AND
SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW
LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY:
AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN
THE WEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN SNOW AT KJMS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. PARTIAL
CLEARING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 10-14Z SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
TREND VFR FOR KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-
005.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
557 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BE
VERY ABUNDANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD IN AS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY.
SINCE UPPER TROF DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...MAY NOT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS LONG ENOUGH. BUT
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE THAT.
WITH COLDER SIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP WILL MIX
WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL...BUT THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT EXPECT
THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,,,CAUSING THE
PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD
WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA
ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY
DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN
THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH THE AREA...AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE HAS
MAXIMIZED WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 35 KTS. WITH THE FRONT
HAVING EVEN MADE IT TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE MVFR STRATOCU E
OF THE FRONT / MOUNTAINS NEVER DID MAKE IT BACK INTO BKW.
A COLD FRONT WASHED OUT W OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...BUT THIS FRONT
WILL REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT THERE TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP S. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY THU MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER. AS
CODED NOW...THIS BRINGS MVFR RAIN TO PKB JUST NW OF THE WHAT BY THEN
WILL BE A COLD FRONT...AND SHOWERS...AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...TO
HTS JUST SE OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 1 KFT TOWARD 18Z
THU AT PKB AND W OF THE FRONT IN GENERAL. HELD OFF ON PRECIPITATION
FOR SITES FARTHER E UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR E OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE GUSTY SW SFC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO THE S
TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOMES GUSTY FROM THE S TO SW THU MORNING. HAVE
A WIND SHIFT TO THE W AT PKB NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...REFLECTING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
TONIGHT BECOMES MODERATE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU...THE WIND SHIFT
ALOFT JUST APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER COME 18Z THU.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND DIRECTION AND GUSTINESS WILL VARY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANGING CONDITIONS IN
THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON INTO THU
NT...AND ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND
CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND
CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.
STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE
WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF
SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA
FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA
ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID
TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE
AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW
MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY
EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE
READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER
12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING.
MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.
FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033-
034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE
IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH
AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB
SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN
RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL
BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA
WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z
WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.
FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.
AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.
WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.
FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS
1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT
PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE
SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES.
AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG
ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS
DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX
ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF
SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT
NORTH OF THE STATE.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA
WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO
THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM
CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR AN ADVISORY.
THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS.
THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE
COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS
COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE
EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.
THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO
ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND
SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z.
A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE
HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF
WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF
KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH.
WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING -
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD.
OUTLOOK...
THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.
FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND
EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 88% HIGH 80%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 77% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 92% MED 62% HIGH 81% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 65% HIGH 80% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% LOW 42% HIGH 81% HIGH 95%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2015 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...AND THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.
SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...THUNDER CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN MVFR CIG TOWARD DAYBREAK...THAT
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR VSBY AROUND DAWN.
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DECREASING ON FRIDAY...WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THE AREA. SW WINDS WILL VEER NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH....THEN N ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...PRECIPITATION NOW IN E TN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IN IFR CIG AT KAVL LATE THIS EVENING...AND BOUTS OF MVFR TO
IFR AT KAND AROUND DAWN...WITH LOW VFR SETTING UP AT OTHER SITES.
GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY AT KGSP AND KGMU AROUND DAWN. KAVL AND
KAND RESTRICTIONS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING...BUT LOW VFR IS
SUPPORTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN AS
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SW TO NE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGH...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KAVL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE BEST AT KAVL WITH THE TWO FRONTS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 90%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 69% HIGH 90%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 81% MED 69% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 62% HIGH 90%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 62% HIGH 90%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 90%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTH WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF CAP ACROSS
THE AREA...DECENT HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND
MILD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO AND DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. BY LATE EVENING
EXPECT CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TO REACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AT THIS
POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING BUT THERE SHOULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
BY 03Z THERE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT UNTIL 06-07Z.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SHOWER AND A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM PARIS TN TO
MEMPHIS TO THE ARKLATEX WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP POST FRONTAL BY
THAT POINT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW
HALF BRINGING AND ABRUPT END TO THE MILD WEATHER.
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MANY PLACES WILL HAVE MORNING HIGHS WITH
FALLING OR STEADY TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE
FRONT. THE SUN MAY PEEK OUT ACROSS NE AR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW COULD PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPS IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
NORTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO SAVANNAH TN LINE SATURDAY MORNING AND
EAST OF A DYERSBURG TN TO FULTON MS LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WE
WILL NEED SOME CLEARING TO SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPS THESE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP
FORECAST. STAY TUNED.
SUNDAY...LOOKING DRY AND MILDER AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY SMALL POPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. LOOKING MORE WET BY MIDWEEK AS
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT AT
TUP WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ERODING. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT JBR WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
NOTED. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AT MKL...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
117 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD THEN MVFR. SCT/BKN STRATOCU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT -SHRA TO REACH CKV AFTER 09Z AND
BNA AFTER 12Z. TS CHANCE LOOKS MINIMAL AT BOTH AIRPORTS AND WILL
NOT MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUBSIDE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CKV TOWARD 12Z THU. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY
AOA 3KFT. AFT 09Z HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVER-
SPREAD THE MID-SOUTH...WITH LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CKV.
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 10KNTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD
SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE
RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND
GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF
RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS.
IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG
LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS.
OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY
BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PARTS OF NE MS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE REIGNS OVER
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS
AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTH INTO KY/MO. THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE QUIET. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NRN AR THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO SE MO
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS MORE ROBUST FURTHER WEST...WILL PUSH INTO NE
AR LATE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NW TN FROM LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM...UNTIL
PERHAPS 1 OR 2 AM. AT THAT POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND IS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH. SHOULD GET INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH TIMING OF
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. EXPECT LINE TO NOW
BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING WITHIN THE LINE THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALLY WANING BY THAT
TIME OF THE NIGHT DUE TO BEING MANY HOURS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY NEAR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER WILL SEE ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURES. IN THOSE AREAS...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT MAY DROP
TO 31-32 DEGREES FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKELY SOMETIME DURING
THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
OUT WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
KRM
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT AT
TUP WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
ERODING. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT JBR WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
NOTED. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
AT MKL...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
TVT
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PARTS OF NE MS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE REIGNS OVER
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS
AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTH INTO KY/MO. THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE QUIET. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NRN AR THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO SE MO
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS MORE ROBUST FURTHER WEST...WILL PUSH INTO NE
AR LATE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND
EXTREME NW TN FROM LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM...UNTIL
PERHAPS 1 OR 2 AM. AT THAT POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND IS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH. SHOULD GET INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH TIMING OF
THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. EXPECT LINE TO NOW
BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING WITHIN THE LINE THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALLY WANING BY THAT
TIME OF THE NIGHT DUE TO BEING MANY HOURS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY NEAR
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER WILL SEE ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURES. IN THOSE AREAS...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT MAY DROP
TO 31-32 DEGREES FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKELY SOMETIME DURING
THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT
OUT WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
KRM
&&
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY
5-10 KT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT JBR WHERE
EVEN ON STATION THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WOULD LIKELY
DIMINISH TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH
LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CKV TOWARD 12Z THU. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY
AOA 3KFT. AFT 09Z HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVER-
SPREAD THE MID-SOUTH...WITH LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CKV.
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 10KNTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD
SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE
RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND
GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF
RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS.
IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG
LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS.
OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY
BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN.
OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD
SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE
RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND
GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF
RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL
SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS.
IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG
LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS.
OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY
BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 75 57 64 34 / 10 20 100 20
CLARKSVILLE 72 54 57 32 / 10 40 90 20
CROSSVILLE 71 55 67 32 / 10 20 100 30
COLUMBIA 76 58 65 36 / 10 20 90 20
LAWRENCEBURG 76 57 66 38 / 10 20 80 20
WAVERLY 74 55 59 33 / 10 30 90 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
809 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN MOVING TOWARD WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ON
RADAR...THEY SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING. UPDATING TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE TIMING OF CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT TODAY...POSSIBILITY OF TSRA APPROACHING DRT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
AT 1130Z STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND WAS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS
AND MOS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON STRATUS SCATTERING OUT.
HOWEVER MOST OF ALL THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS ARE INDICATING
CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
18Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT AUS/SAT THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. STRENGTH OF CAP WILL PLAY ROLE IN HOW
FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE RIO
GRANDE REGION. LATEST HI RES HRRR IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS BETWEEN DEL RIO
AND EAGLE PASS AFTER 22Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 AT DRT TAF
23Z-03Z FOR TSRA. SHOULD STORMS FORM AND MAKE IT TO THE RIO
GRANDE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THU
MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FRONT WILL REACH AUS/DRT TAFS
AROUND 09Z-11Z THU AND SAT/SSF TAFS 10Z-12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA/-TSRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK IS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY DAY BREAK. CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY
MID MORNING AND SCATTERED OUT AROUND NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S OVER MOST AREAS AND INTO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEL RIO AND ADJACENT AREAS AS
SERRENIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS STORMS DEVELOP AND STEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST. IF THESE STORMS DO FORM PER THE MAJORITY OF
HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS...THEY MAY LINGER AROUND FOR FEW HOURS.
CAN`T RULE OUT STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL AS THEY ENTER DEL RIO GRANDE AREA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED TIME FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS ABOUT 2 AM...ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM 4
TO 6 AM AND EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 7 OR 8 AM THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FROPA. SOME OF THE STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. BUT FOR THE MOST
PARTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY NOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S OVER MOST PLACES. A PLEASANT FRIDAY AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 57 66 46 76 / - 40 20 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 57 67 45 74 / - 40 30 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 68 46 75 / - 40 30 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 52 64 43 74 / - 40 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 59 71 46 77 / 30 30 20 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 65 43 75 / - 40 20 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 70 43 76 / 10 40 30 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 67 45 75 / - 40 30 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 61 66 47 74 / - 30 40 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 59 68 46 76 / - 40 30 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 69 47 75 / 10 30 40 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE TIMING OF CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT TODAY...POSSIBILITY OF TSRA APPROACHING DRT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
AT 1130Z STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND WAS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS
AND MOS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON STRATUS SCATTERING OUT.
HOWEVER MOST OF ALL THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS ARE INDICATING
CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
18Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS IN THE TAFS. A FEW
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT AUS/SAT THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. STRENGTH OF CAP WILL PLAY ROLE IN HOW
FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES...POTENTIALY IMPACTING THE RIO GRANDE
REGION. LATEST HI RES HRRR IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS BETWEEN DEL RIO
AND EAGLE PASS AFTER 22Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 AT DRT TAF
23Z-03Z FOR TSRA. SHOULD STORMS FORM AND MAKE IT TO THE RIO
GRANDE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THU
MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FRONT WILL REACH AUS/DRT TAFS
AROUND 09Z-11Z THU AND SAT/SSF TAFS 10Z-12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA/-TSRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK IS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY DAY BREAK. CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY
MID MORNING AND SCATTERED OUT AROUND NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S OVER MOST AREAS AND INTO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEL RIO AND ADJACENT AREAS AS
SERRARIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS STORMS DEVELOP AND STEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST. IF THESE STORMS DO FORM PER THE MAJORITY OF
HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS...THEY MAY LINGER AROUND FOR FEW HOURS.
CAN`T RULE OUT STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL AS THEY ENTER DEL RIO GRANDE AREA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED TIME FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS ABOUT 2 AM...ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM 4
TO 6 AM AND EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 7 OR 8 AM THURSDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FROPA. SOME OF THE STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. BUT FOR THE MOST
PARTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY NOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S OVER MOST PLACES. A PLEASANT FRIDAY AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 57 66 46 76 / 0 40 20 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 57 67 45 74 / - 40 30 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 68 46 75 / - 40 30 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 52 64 43 74 / 0 40 10 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 59 71 46 77 / 30 30 20 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 65 43 75 / 0 40 20 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 70 43 76 / 10 40 30 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 67 45 75 / - 40 30 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 61 66 47 74 / - 30 40 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 59 68 46 76 / - 40 30 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 69 47 75 / 10 30 40 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER AND WILL LIFT
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE VA/NC BORDER...WESTWARD ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
SOME WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT...WAS RESULTING IN AN AREA A LIGHT RAIN.
BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE FROM THE VA/WV
HIGHLANDS SOUTH INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS...TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO 50 SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MAY SEE A COUPLE
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAWN ALONG
THE HIGHER RIDGES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT ICING WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...IF ANY...AND WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT AS THE
GROUND IS TOO WARM.
WHILE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN TAZEWELL
COUNTY WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF ADVECTING WARMTH UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
REMNANT WEDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK WARM
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT EARLY THU. ALL OF
THE MODELS BROADBRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
WITH LOW QPF...GENERALLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 18Z THU. THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME...ALL OF THE APPRECIABLE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT...ACTUALLY EVEN FURTHER WEST ACROSS OH/KY/TN
AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES OR HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND
70S AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR +12C. SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO AS YESTERDAY BUMPED THEM UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS AND IN LIGHT
OF AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS.
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND BETTER FORCING HAS SLOWED
ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION...THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THUS...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE REMOVED FROM THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST CAPES ARE FORECAST...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ON MOST MODELS...AND ONLY IN A NARROW WINDOW
FROM AROUND 18Z-21Z. THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z
IN THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...BUT EVEN LESS
SUPPORT THAN YESTERDAY FROM MY VIEWPOINT FOR ANYTHING SEVERE. THERE
IS NO LLF EVIDENT IN COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS...SO
WILL CONTINUE NOT TO MENTION SEVERE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR IS
ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA THAN THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE POSSIBILITY OF COMBINING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THUS...WHILE THE THREAT
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY
FRIDAY...THE THREAT FURTHER EAST APPEARS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...1/2 INCH OR LESS...ARE DEPICTED IN THE
GRIDS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER BY EARLY FRIDAY FROM UPSLOPE -SHSN. A
FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH AREAS AS FAR EAST AS
BATH...MONTGOMERY...WATAUGA COUNTIES BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS
BEGIN THE PLUNGE TOWARD -15C READINGS BY EARLY SAT...BUT
AGAIN...SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACT/SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT
AND MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND
FALLING/COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING THAT
WINTER IS NOT YET FINISHED...COMPARED TO RECENT MILD/WARM DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BEGINNING VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE PARENT
ARCTIC/CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE AROUND MARCH 6TH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...30S BULK OF THE CWA...40S PIEDMONT.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SLATED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE DEEP
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS OF INTEREST AS NOW THE
CANADIAN HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE GFS IN ADVERTISING A SMALL
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE GFS FROM
GA/SC TO OVER OUR REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN FOCUS
MORE ON EAST TN/WESTERN NC...CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA.
THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT NOT TO
THE DEGREE OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. THERE WILL ALSO BE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL
WITH THE CLIPPER AS WELL. THE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED COMPELS ME TO
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND
THROUGH SW VA/NW NC INTO SAT...ENDING BY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE FRI-SAT EVENT.
BEYOND THAT...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SHORT
WAVE...VARYING FROM VERY STRONG ON THE GFS TO VERY WEAK ON THE ECMWF
TRACKING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE WEST
MONDAY...NOT TO THE DEGREE THE GFS WOULD ADVERTISE AT THIS POINT.
WILL EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH LATER MODELS...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING PRODUCING AN
EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA INTO KENTUCKY. CONVERGENT FLOW VCNTY
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS GRADUALLY MOISTENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET TIME OF
ANY MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL 09Z/5AM.
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD
COVER TODAY. TRENDED THE CIGS UPWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
WINDS ACROSS THEN ENTIRE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SUB VFR
CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS TO AREAS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHILE UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MULTIPLE SENSORS AT THE KDAN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION UNIT
HAVE MALFUNCTIONED. THE DEW POINT WAS NOT BEING REPORTED AT THIS
TIME. TECHNICHIANS WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE OUTAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...AMS/RAB
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
344 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF THAT
MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRALMTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVR THE
SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING
SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WL
KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HYR TRRN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE AREA EARLY
TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE HYR TRRN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WL SEND A FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACRS THE
PLAINS. WED AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS
COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH
SPREADS PCPN ACRS MAINLY THE HYR TRRN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW CU BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF FA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY
ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF THIS MORNING WITH A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF KPOU. KGFL AND KPSF
CONTINUE TO HAVE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR VSBYS AT
KGFL...AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF. KPOU HAS RISEN TO VFR
LEVELS...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN BETWEEN 06Z-10Z WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING. KPSF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 12Z. THE TREND FOR KALB/KGFL WILL BE
FOR HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS BY 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME
LINGERING HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE KPSF. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM
AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER
BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND 20Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1223 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MIGHT TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF FA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT JUST EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN VALLEYS...AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ONE ADDITIONAL WAVE MAY
ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE HRRR HAS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THEN.
THIS COULD LINGER RAINFALL INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ALTHOUGH A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW COULD LINGER CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN
THE VALLEYS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND CONFINED TO TERRAIN OVER 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...LOWER TO MID 40S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH TO SEE THE
BEST SUNSHINE (ESPECIALLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY).
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE EVERYONE DIP BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (ALREADY EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA) WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT PRODUCING BROAD ASCENT. THIS ASCENT
WHEN COMBINE WITH JUST MOISTURE...COULD TRIGGER A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS OF A PERIOD SNOW...WHICH COULD HAPPEN JUST
ANYWHERE IN OUR REGION. IN FACT...MOHAWK HUDSON CONVERGENCE (MAC)
MIGHT TAKE PLACE AT ALBANY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND BACKS BEST
TO THE WEST IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT LIKELY REMAINS NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEAST IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE CAPITAL REGION. EITHER
WAY...AT THIS POINT..ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT...WE WILL CALL A
1-4 INCH SNOWFALL (MOSTLY CLOSER TO AN INCH).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN OUR PARTS. IT WILL TURN BRISK BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...20S TO AROUND 30 OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SOLID 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE A COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE TEENS (SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
ADIRONDACK).
SUNDAY WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COACHED BACK TO
AROUND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES FAIRLY FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS...BEGINNING
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND BRINGING
MIXED WINTRY SHOWERS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG BACK TO THE NORTH
OVER CANADA...AND MODERATE INTO MID-WEEK.
ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MIXED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN STORE AS
WE TRANSITION INTO APRIL. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MORE RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...BUT
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
AS MILD AS IT WILL SEEM COMPARED WITH RECENT WEEKS...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 50S. AT LAST A SENSE OF SPRING WILL BE IN
THE AIR. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S...ALTHOUGH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO POOL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST THE TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
PREDOMINATE IFR OR LIFR. THE FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM KGFL TO
ALLOW SOME DRY AIR TO WORK IN ENOUGH TO BRING SOME VFR CONDITIONS
THERE WHILE EVERYONE ELSE WAS IFR OR EVEN LIFR.
WE NEVERTHELESS PLACED A TEMPO FOR IFR AT KGFL AS THERE IS AT
LIKELYHOOD SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING BACK INTO THAT TAF
SITE WHICH WOULD LIKELY REDUCE CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY TO
IFR THROUGH 04Z.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO BE REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IFR
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
AFTER 06Z...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT ALL THE TAFS
EXCEPT KGFL (VCSH). CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LOW MVFR (EXTRA FUEL
REQUIRED) WHICH COULD TAKE US TO THE MORNING PEAK (12Z-14Z). AFTER
THAT...ENOUGH DRY AIR LOOKS TO BRING CONDITIONS BARELY INTO THE VFR
RANGE (CIGS REMAINING 3500-4000 FEET) THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS TONIGHT...10-15
KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS HAVE THUS FAR NOT RECEIVED A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH MOST AREAS AT OR ABOVE A QUARTER INCH
BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH POSSIBLY 1-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE BUT RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
ANTHER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING A LITTLE SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IT THEN TURNS BRISK AND COLDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CLEARING SKY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY STILL GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME . ALSO ISOLATED
ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
AND RAINFALL A LITTLE LESS. BOTH THESE FACTORS HAVE THUS FAR PREVENT
ANY ICE JAMS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS. AGAIN...THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOTH HAPPENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN EXPECTED NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
IT TURNS DRIER FRIDAY. A SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY NIGHT...AND
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY AS WELL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.
RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA
MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 61 74 55 / 60 40 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 63 75 59 / 50 40 0 0
MIAMI 88 68 77 59 / 50 40 0 0
NAPLES 81 62 73 52 / 70 20 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
TWEAKED THE WIND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.
NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 41 78 48 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 72 40 80 47 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 74 44 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 41 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 39 75 47 / 20 0 0 10
P28 60 40 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY...
WHICH COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO KOMA 01-05Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MORE STEADY RAIN TO ARRIVE BY MID
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT PER LATEST 3KM HRRR MODEL FORECAST.
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM 12Z TO ABOUT 20Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FROM
CURRENT READINGS THEN WILL SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE ZONES... AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME NW/N AND GUSTY. RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS S/SW WINDS PROMOTE GOOD MIXING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND HIGH CONDFIDENCE IN LIKELY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL STARTING
AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WINDS CONTINUE SW AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE BUT ARE LIKELY 6 FEET OR
BETTER FURTHER OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO RAMP UP JUST AHEAD
OF AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIKEWISE...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8
FEET...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH MODELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.
LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.
THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE
SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEEN UPDATING TAFS AS NEEDED. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE
09Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EVENING INFORMATION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
443 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE
SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING IN
THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN TRAILING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK WEST VA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AIMING NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF
CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR USES THIS TO KEEP THE SERN 1/3-1/2 OF MY FCST
AREA WET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MID MORNING.
OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO
MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD
AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUGGEST TEMPS BY DAWN WILL
RANGE FROM THE M/U20S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY EARLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD END BY LATE
AM...AS SECONDARY SFC WAVE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...APPROACH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY FOR LATE
MARCH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY ARND FREEZING OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO THE M40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT
850 HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT PATCHY RAIN ACROSS THE SE PART OF CENTRAL PA INTO
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFT.
SOME SNOW AT JST NOW.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN TRAILING THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK WEST VA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AIMING NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF
CENTRAL PA. THE HRRR USES THIS TO KEEP THE SERN 1/3-1/2 OF MY FCST
AREA WET THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY MID MORNING.
OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN TO
MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FURTHER EAST RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD
AIR IS SCARCE SO NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
BLEND OF 18Z CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUGGEST TEMPS BY DAWN WILL
RANGE FROM THE M/U20S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 40F ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY EARLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD END BY LATE
AM...AS SECONDARY SFC WAVE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
ELSEWHERE...APPROACH OF UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT A FEW PM
SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL WELL
BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY FOR LATE
MARCH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ONLY ARND FREEZING OVR THE NW
MTNS...TO THE M40S IN LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE COLDEST AIR AT
850 HPA WITH -2 TO -2.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES COMES BY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROF DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF
SHOULD HAVE CONCLUDED BY DAYTIME FRIDAY...BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROF WILL SLOW THE ADVANCE OF THE
OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE TROF/ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...CAUSING LINGERING
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE AFTER A COUPLE
DAYS OF MORE SPRING LIKE CONDS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER NRN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SNOW SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BUT REMAIN COOL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 03Z NOW EAST OF CWA...WITH REMNANTS FROM EARLIER
TSTMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT MD/E PA/NJ. ACROSS CENTRAL PA...COOLER
AIR NOW FILTERING IN ON NW FLOW. SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS LOWER SUSQ TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE NW HALF OF CWA INTO FRI. CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST HOUR /02Z TO 03Z/ HAVE TAKEN A QUICK TURN DOWNWARD AS MOST
PLACES AT 02Z WERE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
QUICKLY FILLED IN ACROSS THE REGION IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING FRI
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOO. WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MORE SIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR AS LOW CLOUDS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT KBFD-KJST.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH REDUCTIONS IN MOST PLACES...WITH
MIXING BRINGING IMPROVEMENT FIRST IN THE SE THEN SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL MTNS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT
RADAR TRENDS AS IT PERTAINS TO FRONTAL PRECIP SLIDING THROUGH THE
HIGH TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT
IN THE APPROXIMATE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SHOULD PASS INTO
THE FOOTHILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT SHORTLY
AFTER. THUS...CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON TRACK THEREFORE NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED/MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 225 PM...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP AROUND THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACRS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND UPPER 60S IN MTN VALLEYS. HELD ONTO A LOW POP THRU
EARLY EVENING...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS HAVING A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACRS THE PIEDMONT...ALBEIT CAPPED OFF IN THE MIDLEVELS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS LOOKS NEAR ZERO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HRS.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT AND AN
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BAND OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND EMBEDDED TSTMS IS SEEN OVER WV AND ERN
KY...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. LATEST HRRR AND 4KM SPC WRF TAKE
THIS FEATURE NEWD...WHILE MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE TENN VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACRS THE
MTNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND THE SFC WAVE MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE
GFS/NAM SHOW QPF IN OUR CWFA INVOF THE FRONT...THOUGH THIS APPEARS
DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN ADVECTION OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
INDEED MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG...MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...PRESENT IN THE CWFA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT. THUNDER CHANCES ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-85. THOUGH 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZATION OR
DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TSRA...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SMALL AND SVR WX
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE CWFA IN ANY PROBABILISTIC
THREAT AREAS THRU 12Z. DESPITE THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE...MINS WILL
BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
COLD AIR BEGINS TO SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NWLY WINDS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SMALL CHANCES OF NW FLOW SNOW
ARE INCLUDED NEAR DAYBREAK...THOUGH IN REALITY IF THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH A MIX OF PTYPES COULD OCCUR AS IT CUTS
UNDERNEATH THE VERY WARM MIDLEVEL AIR STILL PRESENT...CREATING A
WARM NOSE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE TROUGH STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SLIGHT SFC
BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTN. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS...WITH TEMPS AGAIN BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR A
RA/SN MIX IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. EARLY AFTN MAX TEMPS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY..A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A DEPARTING VORT MAX...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO...SOME NW FLOW
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON GOING AS ANOTHER VORT MAX CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
MEANWHILE...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE -8C TO -12C RANGE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. HENCE...A PERIOD OF DECENT NW FLOW SNOW SHOULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN REGARD TO SNOW ACCUMS...THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
OF QPF HAS TICKED UPWARD SOMEWHAT SO THAT ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL MAY
OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
INCHES IN SMOKIES WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES.
IN ADDITION...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE AN
ADVECTIVE FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S. THE
PIEDMONT WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S...WITH ISOLD FREEZING TEMPS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FROST WHERE WINDS CAN DECOUPLE IN SHELTERED
AREAS.
NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVENTION WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE CP
HIGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DRY AIR ARRIVES TO
CUT OFF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SAT. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THE CP HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S IN THE MTNS AND MID 20S TO LWR 30S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THESE MIN
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORD LOWS ACRS THE PIEDMONT (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION RETURING ON
SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTNS BY 12Z MONDAY. UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULT IN VEERING LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...WITH RESULTANT WEAKLY
CONVERGENT/DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...AND POPS WILL GENERALLY BE MAINTAINED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE THERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WESTERN HEIGHT FALLS AND EASTERN
RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF FAST/QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING THAT GLOBAL MODEL DETAILS
DIVERGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAK
SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THE GFS
OFFERS THE WETTER SOLUTION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES US TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING MOST PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESERVED FOR DAY 7 FOR THE POTENTIAL
APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIALIZED TAF AT LOW VFR WITH SW WINDS AT 09KTS BEFORE INTRODUCING
-SHRA AT 08Z AS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BAND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE
NC PIEDMONT REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER AT THAT
POINT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR VISB POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRA...THUS ADDED TEMPO FOR SUCH. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER
SHARPLY NW WITH SOME 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
CARRIED WX MENTION THROUGH 16Z WHERE N WINDS PREVAIL AMIDST MVFR
CIGS. CIGS WILL LIFT THROUGH MIDDAY WITH LOW VFR ROUNDING OUT THE
PERIOD AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR ASIDE FOR KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE. LOWERED ALL SITES TO MVFR AFTER A FEW HORUS WITH A BRIEF
TEMPO TO IFR AT KAVL INCLUDED. KEPT VISB RESTRICITIONS AT MVFR
LEVELS AS VEERING/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD HELP INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BR/FG. ALL SITES REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH MORNING BEFORE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
DAY. LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES
AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF TAF FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% LOW 40% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% MED 78% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 90% MED 69% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% MED 78% MED 71% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 85% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 83% MED 78% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
942 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW CU BUILD UPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.
BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.
HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.
FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.
TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.
WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.
SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.
SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.
THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 61 73 54 / 70 30 10 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 63 74 59 / 50 30 10 0
MIAMI 88 64 77 60 / 50 30 10 0
NAPLES 83 63 74 54 / 70 30 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
CURRENT-TODAY...AXIS OF A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 00Z.
EARLY MORNING BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WAS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SOME DECREASE IN DEW POINTS OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
PRE FRONTAL BAND...AND THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.19 INCHES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WERE STREAKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT/MOVE AWAY IN
THE SOUTH WHILE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER. THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ONGOING STORMS TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ASHORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA. SO OUR CURRENT HIGH POPS AROUND 80S PERCENT LOOK
GOOD.
DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. STILL
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG FOR THESE PARTS...45-50
KNOTS...SO FAST MOVING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS A FEW MAX GUSTS 50-60 KNOTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR COIN
SIZED HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 12 CELSIUS. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTH...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE.
CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE
COAST. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
14Z UNTIL CONVECTION AND RAIN COOLING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING...16-17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL
END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...NORTHERN AREAS BY 22Z AND
SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL CLEAR OUT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FAST MOVING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
CROSSING THE COAST AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL
IN ADVANCE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45
KNOTS WITH SEVERAL CELLS.
ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. FROST AND AN INLAND FREEZE
COULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH WARMER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING...WHILE THE AXIS OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAS REQUIRED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS BEEN QUITE
LIGHT AND HAS STRUGGLED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
EXAMINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND SUPPORTS A SURGE
IN RAIN COVERAGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2 PM AND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
AND HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING BEST
RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY REGION AND BOTH
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE TIME. HAVE
THUS ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE 65 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL STEADILY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.
ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE THICK CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSION EFFECTS...WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW/MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST. IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP SEVERAL
MORE DEGREES. DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD THUS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE...YET STILL EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT 15 TO 20
MPH.
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE PULLED EAST WITH
THE COLD FRONT...THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF MILES OFF THE SURFACE. A POTENT SHORT
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 05-10Z. THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO PREVENT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26 OR -27C COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SOFT HAIL OR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE SHOWERS AS THE
SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD -1C SOUTH AND -4C NORTH AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20-25F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS DEEPER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN
ISOLATED GRAUPEL/LIGHTNING REMAINS TOO LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT...TO
JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES...STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F MOST AREAS EACH
DAY...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-14F BELOW NORMAL.
OF GREATEST IMPORT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/TOWARD
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING/EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL INCREASE...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. IN FACT...A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND ESPECIALLY IF WINDS BECOME
CALM. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS CAE AND ILM OPTED NOT TO ISSUE
LATE 4TH PERIOD/EARLY 5TH PERIOD FREEZE WATCHES. HOWEVER...ADDED A
MENTION OF FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
MONDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
ALSO...AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS AN AXIS OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT/AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL THUS OPTED NOT TO ADD A
MENTION OF THUNDER WITHIN THE FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN...STALL THEN
WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THUS...A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY
THEN ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...POPS
COULD INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST POPS...CAPPED AT CHANCE FOR NOW...ARE IN
ORDER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODELS DEPICT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH CEILINGS COULD PERIODICALLY SCATTER THROUGH THE
DAY...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A PERIOD
OF IFR WEATHER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AS DRIER AIR STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING
HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 20 KT AT KCHS AND AROUND 25
KT AT KSAV FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PASSING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME MARINE LAYERING EFFECTS WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION...A FAIRLY DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ASSIST IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
EVEN BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
AND INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE CHARLESTON COUNTY ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT ON
THESE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE ZONES...SUPPORTING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE OTHER ZONES WILL STAY JUST BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...PATCHY SEA FOG
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
SCOUR OUT THE FOG. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...KEEPING NW WINDS ELEVATED. AS A RESULT
HAVE RAISED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE
COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING
ADVISORY ON THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR SEAS OF 6 FT AND GUSTS
OF 25 OR 30 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED TO
RAISE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALIZED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THEN STALLS MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
SEAS WILL CHANGE DURING VIRTUALLY EACH PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST. SEAS
WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AT 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN WILL
BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT...THEN INCREASING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING
TO AT LEAST 3-5 FT MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AGAIN
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
952 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Have updated the forecast to add scattered snow showers for the
eastern 2 columns of counties in the forecast area, for the rest
of the morning. Latest radar imagery showing snow showers that
originated over Lake Michigan streaming southward. Danville
visibility now down to 3 miles and some other heavier showers will
be tracking along the Vermilion/Champaign County line. Would not
be surprised to see a dusting of accumulation in some areas, but
temperatures still expected to rise above freezing this afternoon,
so these should not last. The area has shown some diminishing with
time with no direct connection to the lake now, so have limited
the PoP`s to slight chances along and south of I-70.
Elsewhere, a large area of clearing has been taking place from
Galesburg to Bloomington, spreading southward. Layer relative
humidity plots from the RAP model indicate some of this may fill
in again this afternoon with diurnal development. Temperatures
generally on track and only required minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
An upper level shortwave trough axis will cross central IL early in
the morning with deep northerly flow continuing to advect cold air
into the region through the day today. Brisk northerly winds 10 to
15 mph will continue much of the day before beginning to taper off
late in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches from the
west, weakening pressure gradients over the area. Combined with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, it will be a fairly chilly day
for this time of year. Cloud cover will be prevalent early in the
morning as the trough axis crosses, then tapering off west to east
throughout the day as subsidence behind the trough sets in. Some
lake-enhanced cloud cover and flurries could affect Vermilion and
Edgar counties late this morning into early afternoon, but otherwise
not much indication that cloud cover associated with the shortwave
will produce any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A cold night ahead for central and southeast IL as 1029 mb Canadian
high pressure over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas settles
into the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning and ridges south
into IL overnight into Sat morning. Meanwhile another northern
stream short wave dives SE across central/NE IA/MO overnight and
keeps it light snow chances SW of IL though may get some clouds in
west central and SW IL. Lows tonight in the upper teens NE areas
where less clouds and lower 20s SW areas. This would be above record
lows on Sat morning Mar 28 ranging from 5-15F.
Short wave trof passes across IL Sat morning and into KY/TN by
sunset Sat while 1028 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the
Ohio river valley. This to ensure another chilly day across IL with
highs in the lower 40s and even some upper 30s in east central IL.
Some passing clouds Sat morning give way to more sunshine Sat
afternoon.
00Z models continue dry conditions over central and southeast IL Sat
night as clouds increase overnight over northern areas. Lows Sat
night in the mid 20s eastern IL and upper 20s to near 30F central
and western IL, with temps nearly steady or slowing rising later Sat
night as southerly winds start to increase and clouds increase
especially over IL river valley. Strong surface low pressure around
990 mb passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday as it tracks eastward
over southern Canada and brings a cold front SE across IL Sunday
evening. Have increase chances of rain showers during day Sunday
especially Sunday afternoon. Could be cold enough early Sunday
morning for mix of precipitation over IL river valley in NW counties
if precipitation starts prior to 9 am. Breezy SSW winds Sunday ahead
of cold front to start the warm up into the low to mid 50s. Rain
shower chances diminish from NW to SE Sunday night and mainly occur
Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night in mid 30s central IL and upper
30s in southeast IL.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal by early next week and this to
bring milder Pacific air into IL during early and middle part of
next week. Weak surface high pressure settles into the mid MS river
valley Monday and returns dry weather with mostly sunny skies.
Milder highs Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A surface low
tracking east across the Great Lakes Monday night to bring slight
chance of light rain showers north and NE of I-74 with most of rain
showers passing north of central IL. Milder highs in the mid to
upper 60s expected Tue and Wed with low to mid 60s on Thu. Next wx
system to bring chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Have slight chances of showers
lingering over eastern/SE IL Thu then another chance of showers
arriving next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Mainly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Breezy north
winds will decrease and shift to more easterly as high pressure
drifts into the region. SCT-BKN cloud cover at 4-6 kft AGL across
central IL in the morning will gradually clear from the west
through the day. Local MVFR ceilings will take place through the
early afternoon in eastern sections of the state along with a
possibility of isolated -SHSN associated with lake effect from
Lake Michigan.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CU THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALL VFR
AFTER 16Z. THEN...CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 42 78 48 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 72 42 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 74 45 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 42 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 40 75 47 / 30 0 0 10
P28 60 40 75 48 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 41 78 48 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 72 40 80 47 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 74 44 83 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 41 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 39 75 47 / 20 0 0 10
P28 60 40 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB WILL MOVE EAST A BIT THIS MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 AND
LIFT TO VFR 18Z-19Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.
LATE TONIGHT...THE SREF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...PERHAPS BETWEEN KANW-KONL
AND KBBW WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL WASHOUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1118 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID- WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...TIMING ISSUES REMAIN WITH THE EVENTUAL CFP.
MODELS IN GENERAL CONTINUE WITH A MUCH FASTER CFP THAN WHAT
REALITY IS CURRENTLY DICTATING AT THE MOMENT. IN ADDITION...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP SHOWN BY 88DS IS NOW OCCURRING POST CFP. IN
ADDITION...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PCPN HAS SHOWN A DECREASING
TREND. AS A RESULT...HAVE HAD TO RE-ALIGN AND LOWER POPS BY 1 TO
2 CATEGORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUING
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...AND WELL INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CURRENT OVERCAST...WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE
BREAKS IN THE OVC...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AWAY FROM
THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD...MAX TEMPS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTN MAY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK PRIOR TO THE CFP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM RALEIGH TO SOUTHERN PINES...AND WADESBORO INTO UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
THE MILD SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT
TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10
AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY
FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF THE RAW 00Z NAM...00Z WRF-NMM AND
07Z HRRR MODELS.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES.
WAVE #1 IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WAVE #2 COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF NC AND IS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN IN LUMBERTON
AND FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIP WAVES...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-100 PERCENT
AND QPF .10 TO .20 INCHES.
WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB
MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDING THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20
PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET
AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER
30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND
EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING
ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL
FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE
AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN
FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAIN DIFFICULTY TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE CEILINGS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST TIMING WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS WINDOW COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...BRIEF LULL IN THE SW-WSW WIND FIELD PRIOR
TO THE CFP SLATED FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS. AS A
RESULT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW THE CURRENT FCST AND
THUS WILL HAVE TO BE AMENDED. ANY CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
QUICKLY REFLECTED IN THE SIG. SEAS. THIS DUE TO ONLY A SMALL
PSEUDO GROUND SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SIG. SEAS...THUS RESULTING
IN MAINLY SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES IN THE SIG. SEAS MAKE-UP.
AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RUN 4.5 TO 5.5 SECONDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................................
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME.
SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY
AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY
SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK
TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS A
FINE LINE WHICH HAS JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH KINSTON AND
WASHINGTON A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. INITIAL
BATCH OF RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 16Z ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP FORECAST REMAINDER OF TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY HELD OFF
THUS FAR...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND FRONT...ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER-END MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT
PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF RALEIGH AND SHOULD
START MOVING INTO OUR CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BULK OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS FORECAST BY THE 3KM HRRR AND RAP TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY AROUND 16Z OR SO. HAVE CONTINUED
CATEGORICAL POPS AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
BEING REACHED THIS MORNING AND WILL DROP IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY HELD OFF
THUS FAR...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND FRONT...ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER-END MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY START TO OCCUR IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO RISE AND
THINK THE MAIN INCREASE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT GENERALLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS
LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 OR 9 FEET BY AFTERNOON WILL ROUGH
SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO
MID- WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
RALEIGH TO SOUTHERN PINES...AND WADESBORO INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE MILD SUBTROPICAL
AIRMASS JUST LONG ENOUGH AFTER 12Z/8 AM EDT TO KEEP TODAY`S DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S BY 10 AM...NOT TO RECOVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERWHELMS WHAT LITTLE HEAT
IS ABLE TO FILTER THROUGH THE CLOUDS. MOS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY
STRUGGLES IN THESE SITUATIONS AND MY FORECAST IS A LARGELY BLEND OF
THE RAW 00Z NAM...00Z WRF-NMM AND 07Z HRRR MODELS.
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD COME IN THREE WAVES.
WAVE #1 IS EXITING THE CAPE FEAR AREA NOW AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WAVE #2 COVERS THE WESTERN HALF
OF NC AND IS ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND SHOULD BEGIN IN LUMBERTON
AND FLORENCE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...SPREADING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE PRECIP WAVES...WITH FORECAST POPS 80-100 PERCENT
AND QPF .10 TO .20 INCHES.
WAVE #3 OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES OVERHEAD AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE 800-700 MB
MOISTURE THAT SNEAKED SOUTH OF THE APPALACHIANS...AVOIDING THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW. ALTHOUGH I AM CAPPING POPS TONIGHT AT 20
PERCENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ANALYSIS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
THE FREEZING LEVEL NEVER MAKES IT DOWN BELOW 2000-2500 FEET
AGL...TOO DEEP A "WARM" LAYER FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN CLOUDS AND STEADY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT I AM FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE RAW GFS/NAM MODELS LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH UPPER
30S INLAND AND AROUND 40 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...CLEARING SKIES...BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE PULLS
OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 50S.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY MORNING LOWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SANS A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE SREF GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL SOME WIND
EXPECTED AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FIELDS SHOW ONE FINAL DECENT VORT ROTATING
ACROSS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. STILL ALL SIGNS POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT FREEZE. BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT RAISE THE FREEZE WATCH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS BEING IN THE WATCH. NOT A LOT OF WARMING FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF HOWEVER MAKING IT FEEL NICER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN UNEVENTFUL
FASHION TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF FLEETING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS THE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE
AS THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS TO THE SOUTH THEN WASHES OUT WITH A RETURN
FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
STARTS OUT ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING
TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MAIN DIFFICULTY TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE CEILINGS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEST TIMING WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-19Z TIME FRAME. THIS WINDOW COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WITH POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS
BUT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. POST
FRONTAL...LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH FAIRLY LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
COLD AIR BLASTS OFFSHORE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HIGH PRESSURE UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A VERY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS LATE IN MARCH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE DIED DOWN TO 10-15 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEED OR DIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE ACTUAL
FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY IN THE 1-3 PM TIMEFRAME.
SEAS CURRENTLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NC
WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEA HEIGHTS NEARSHORE TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...HEALTHY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY
AND OFFSHORE WITH A RANGE OF 3-5 FEET. HEIGHTS BACK OFF CONSIDERABLY
SUNDAY TO 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE MONDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE
15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
IS BRIEFLY STRONG WITH 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. UNDER A QUICK MOVING
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT THE HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. SEAS DROP BACK
TUESDAY AS WELL.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1104 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE CAA. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE
TO EXPAND DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SCATTERED FLURRY OR
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMA FOR THE END OF MARCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING
CAA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WITH THE LATE MARCH SUN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO THIS MAY RESTRICT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE A SPRINKLE/FLURRY FORECAST RATHER
THAN SHOWERS. WITH ANY PCPN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH WITH MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
OUR SOUTH...BUT IF PCPN BECOMES CONVECTIVE ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT
MORE OF TREND TOWARD FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS EVEN ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH TODAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CAA...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SUN...AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 00Z NAM AND ARW ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
FOR DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A MIX ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH...WILL
LIMIT POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL THEN SPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA HAS QUICKLY DISINTEGRATED THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR/VFR CLOUDS REFORMING TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
ISSUANCE. HIGH RES HRRR AND NMM BOTH DEVELOPING SOME FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE OF SOUNDING AM EXPECTING THIS
TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED. SATURDAY MORNING A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE NAM
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW
HAVE JUST SHOWN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND LEFT THE
MENTION OF SNOW OUT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
854 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOME MORNING FOG IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.UPDATE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE FOG IS MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS...THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. MCMINNVILLE...CORVALLIS AND PORTIONS
OF CLARK COUNTY HAVE SEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG
AND BASED ON THE FACT THAT IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND
THEREFORE SHOULD DISSIPATE MUCH FASTER...WILL HANDLE THE FOG WITH A
NOWCAST INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST MARINE PUSH IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUDS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. IN FACT...MARINE CLOUDS ARE
KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF EUGENE. THE NAM HAS FINALLY PICKED UP ON
THIS IDEA AND SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BEFORE BURNING BACK INTO THE COAST RANGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS IDEA SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO TRENDED THE SKY FORECAST TO
DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE
CLOUDS SPREAD UP THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EITHER SO THERE IS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR INFILTRATING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWNWARD IN THIS REGION...BUT IF
CLOUDS WERE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
LIKELY TOO HIGH FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...TOO.
A FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR 130W WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE COAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND BETWEEN
6 PM AND 9 PM ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. QPF STILL LOOKS RATHER
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE AREA LOOKS TO DRY OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING LOOKS TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
AIMED AT SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA RIVER AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL CERTAINLY
SEE INCREASE CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THEIR COUNTERPARTS FARTHER
SOUTH...AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.
/NEUMAN
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ZONAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS MEANS FRONTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR LATE IN
THE DAY AND MON NIGHT. LIKELY SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS REGION.
AFTERWARDS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION BEGINS TO DROP AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION. WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER BUT KEEP
SOME MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ROCKEY.
&&
.AVIATION...POCKETS OF IFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT AS
EXTENSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS
TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE IS
UNDERWAY ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND THROUGH THE COAST RANGE
GAPS INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. ADDED AN IFR STRATUS DECK TO THE
KEUG TAF THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM AND RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STRATUS MAY SURGE UP THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY REACHING KSLE AND WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF IT GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST MODELS
IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO WILL BE MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY.
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SAT
MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERLY STRATUS
SURGE WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS MORNING OR
THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT...VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND LIKELY MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS AROUND 8 FT UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY CLIMB TO AROUND 10 FT DURING THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS.
WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNS TO THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON MON. THIS FRONT LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BRING A SOLID ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF GALES. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TEENS LATE SUN OR MON AND REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 1 PM
PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
836 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 HPA JET AND ASSOCIATED NE/SW BAND
OF 850-700 HPA FGEN SLIDING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
WILL BRING SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING.
06Z OPER MODELS...03Z SREF AND 11Z HRRR ALL SHOW THIS LIGHT PRECIP
ENDING/MVG EAST OF LANCASTER COUNTY BETWEEN 15-16Z TODAY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WITH
-2 TO -3 SIGMA 850-500 HPA TEMP ANOMALIES WILL COMBINE WITH A
WELL-ALIGNED NWLY LLVL FLOW TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING TREND IN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NW WHERE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F FOR A
HIGH TODAY.
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AS THE THICKER...LAYERED CLOUD SHIELD
SLIDES SLOWLY EAST.
TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR
FREEZING IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SE UNTIL EARLY AFT.
JUST STARTED TO HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT BFD.
DID BRING SOME SNOW INTO THE WEST AND NW TONIGHT AGAIN...AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
719 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MY SERN ZONES. THE
BACK EDGE EXTENDS FROM SRN BEDFORD COUNTY TO JUST SOUTH OF
WILLIAMSPORT. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SERN 1/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
WET THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE BEFORE ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. I DID LEAN CLOSER TO NEAR TERM
ENSEMBLE POPS THAT HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE
EXTREME SE EARLY TODAY SO I MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC THERE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL END UP DRY.
OVER MY WESTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES...ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS ALREADY
MOVED IN TO MAKE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW HELPS FORCE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. FURTHER EAST RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SURFACE COLD AIR IS SCARCE SO
NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLD PATTERN YESTERDAY...TODAY`S
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL MAXING OUT NEAR FREEZING
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MY USUAL WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. A BLEND OF MODEL POPS SHOWS VERY SMALL
CHANCES EVEN EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES BUT ANY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES OF THE WEST AND NORTH.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE COLDEST 850 AIR WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING BRIGHTENING SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 40 NW TO SE.
POSSIBLY-HOPEFULLY THE COLDEST DAY WE SEE UNTIL NEXT FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN UPPER HEIGHTS TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS BRING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
THE GEFS AND NAEFSBC HINT THAT AS WE ENTER THE FIRST DAYS OF
APRIL...THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WHICH HAS PLAGUED US WITH A NEVER
ENDING SUPPLY OF COLD AIR SINCE FEBRUARY...WILL FINALLY YIELD TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND LONG ANTICIPATED MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE PACKAGES DO NOT EXACTLY GO OVERBOARD WITH PROJECTIONS
OF EASTERN WARMTH HOWEVER AS THEY MAINTAIN A LOW OVER HUDSON`S
BAY...BUT THE FLOW SEEMS DESTINED TO COME MORE OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BEFORE SLIDING EAST...WHICH CANNOT HELP
BUT BE MILDER THAN THE FLOW OUT OF THE ARCTIC WE HAVE SEEN SO MUCH
OF FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SE UNTIL EARLY AFT.
JUST STARTED TO HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT BFD.
DID BRING SOME SNOW INTO THE WEST AND NW TONIGHT AGAIN...AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES IN.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/WEST. VFR TO MVFR CENTRAL
AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA.
SUN...NO SIG WX/VFR.
MON...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN /LIGHT SNOW EARLY/ ACROSS NW HALF WITH
MVFR REDUCTIONS. VFR SE.
TUE...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NW HALF WITH MVFR REDUCTIONS.
VFR SE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A TRAILING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRY AND SEASONALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED. FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SOLIDLY MVFR CONTINUES FOR THE CLT AREA WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR. -SHRA HAS MOVED OUT FOR THE MOST PART BUT MIGHT
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES SO WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE 15Z AMD.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LOW VFR RETURNS AFTER THE 21Z TIMEFRAME AMIDST
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LEADING TO MVFR CONDITIONS. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR/MVFR
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING EARLIEST ACROSS
THE WEST...THEREFORE LEADING TO EARLIER VFR ONSET AT KAVL. THE
REMAINING SITES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SHRA EXITS THE REGION NEAR
MIDDAY. LOW VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SCT LEADING TO ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AMONGST LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW. LASTLY...EXPECTING LIGHT SHSN ALONG THE TN LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH CAA PATTERN...THUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT KAVL NEAR PERIODS END HOWEVER LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
OF TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN WITH PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS LOOK
MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THUS AFFECTING
KAVL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 97% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 78% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY MED 77% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 76% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CDG/TDP
CLIMATE...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
116 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
DECREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOADED IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. DESPITE SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...WARMING CONTINUES...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015
BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. DESPITE SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.
SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.
TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 50 69 51 65 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 54 71 49 72 / 20 0 0 0
MLB 51 71 49 70 / 30 0 0 0
VRB 53 71 45 72 / 30 0 0 0
LEE 52 72 48 70 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 51 72 49 70 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 54 72 51 70 / 20 0 0 0
FPR 56 71 46 71 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.
THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 61 73 54 75 / 30 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 63 74 59 75 / 30 10 0 0
MIAMI 64 77 60 78 / 30 10 0 0
NAPLES 63 74 54 77 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
657-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
715 AM CDT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE WEAKENS. DISORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE THE SNOW
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING...CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FAVORING LARGE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION.
SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOW CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IMPACTS TO MORNING
COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STEERED HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH -35C OBSERVED AT 500MB AT GRB LAST EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...AS SAMPLED WITH -13C AT 850MB...HAS
HELPED CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORT OF THE LAKE HAS
FAVORED A FOCUS WITH 25-30DBZ AND REPORTS INDICATING BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW IN THESE SHOWERS...INCLUDING IN CHICAGO AS OF 330 AM.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SHORE OF WISCONSIN HAVE INDICATED A
BACKING WIND TO MORE NORTHWEST...A SIGN THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK
OVER THE LAKE AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS ENDING OF THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW SHOWERS IS AS FAR
SOUTH AS MILWAUKEE AS OF 330 AM AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ENDING THE TEMPORARY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BY
DAYBREAK IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SEE LESS ORGANIZATION
AND A SLOW DIMINISHING AS CONVERGENCE WANES AND DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN REPORTS AND WEBCAMS OF SNOW ON EVEN PAVED SURFACES...HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS WITH POSSIBLY UP TO AN ISOLATED INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. WE DO THINK THE IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE MAJORITY OF
THE RUSH HOUR WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPORARY
BURSTS CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
DESPITE AT LEAST TEMPORARY SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAXS. THEY ARE
FORECAST TO FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE RECORDS /31 IN
1965 IN RFD AND 26 IN 1904 IN CHICAGO/. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF THIS MORNING MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH THE LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST OUTLYING PLACES.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SHUNT THE
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN MID/UPPER RIDGE EAST...BRINGING HEIGHT
RISES...THOUGH COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT MIXING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW -10 CELSIUS UNTIL THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 40. ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHORE AND
INLAND TEMPS...AS LATEST LAKE SFC TEMP OBS ARE GENERALLY IN MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DUE TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STOUT
BUT SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP BLOSSOMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN BY THE TIME IT STARTS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ECMWF ON SLOWER SLIDE...BUT MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE EVENING. HAVE BUMPED UP TO HIGH END LIKELY
POPS...WITH LINGERING LOW CHANCES IN THE EVENING. OTHER CONCERN
ON SUNDAY IS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC HIGH AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL FROPA. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE MAINLY LOW/SLIGHT CHC
POPS WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM NEARBY ON MONDAY NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WITH
EXCEPTION OF 00Z CANADIAN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO 50S AS SHOWN ON OPERATIONAL
GFS...MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FROM THE 50S ON MONDAY TO PRIMARILY 60S ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND THEN
ONTO IL SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHORE TEMPS COOLER.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MIDDAY...THOUGH BROKEN MAINLY VFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE AT ORD/MDW
AND GYY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL BE GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT EXCEPT AT GARY...WHERE FETCH RIGHT
OFF OF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW GUSTS CLOSER TO 25-30 KT EARLY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH A FEW/SCT VFR CLOUDS
STILL MOVING INLAND OFF THE LAKE. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT ORD/MDW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE IN LIGHT GRADIENT.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
412 AM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS WITH HIGHER END SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES ON
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOR CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...AND FOR LINGERING WAVES INTO SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST AND UP TO 45 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE
IS A FEW HOUR WINDOW ON SUNDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO
STORM FORCE ON THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH AND THEN WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN LAKE DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NEAR LAKE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAND ALSO
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER END GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT AND THEN DIMINISH...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
A PORTION OF THE LAKE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Have updated the forecast to add scattered snow showers for the
eastern 2 columns of counties in the forecast area, for the rest
of the morning. Latest radar imagery showing snow showers that
originated over Lake Michigan streaming southward. Danville
visibility now down to 3 miles and some other heavier showers will
be tracking along the Vermilion/Champaign County line. Would not
be surprised to see a dusting of accumulation in some areas, but
temperatures still expected to rise above freezing this afternoon,
so these should not last. The area has shown some diminishing with
time with no direct connection to the lake now, so have limited
the PoP`s to slight chances along and south of I-70.
Elsewhere, a large area of clearing has been taking place from
Galesburg to Bloomington, spreading southward. Layer relative
humidity plots from the RAP model indicate some of this may fill
in again this afternoon with diurnal development. Temperatures
generally on track and only required minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
An upper level shortwave trough axis will cross central IL early in
the morning with deep northerly flow continuing to advect cold air
into the region through the day today. Brisk northerly winds 10 to
15 mph will continue much of the day before beginning to taper off
late in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches from the
west, weakening pressure gradients over the area. Combined with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, it will be a fairly chilly day
for this time of year. Cloud cover will be prevalent early in the
morning as the trough axis crosses, then tapering off west to east
throughout the day as subsidence behind the trough sets in. Some
lake-enhanced cloud cover and flurries could affect Vermilion and
Edgar counties late this morning into early afternoon, but otherwise
not much indication that cloud cover associated with the shortwave
will produce any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A cold night ahead for central and southeast IL as 1029 mb Canadian
high pressure over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas settles
into the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning and ridges south
into IL overnight into Sat morning. Meanwhile another northern
stream short wave dives SE across central/NE IA/MO overnight and
keeps it light snow chances SW of IL though may get some clouds in
west central and SW IL. Lows tonight in the upper teens NE areas
where less clouds and lower 20s SW areas. This would be above record
lows on Sat morning Mar 28 ranging from 5-15F.
Short wave trof passes across IL Sat morning and into KY/TN by
sunset Sat while 1028 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the
Ohio river valley. This to ensure another chilly day across IL with
highs in the lower 40s and even some upper 30s in east central IL.
Some passing clouds Sat morning give way to more sunshine Sat
afternoon.
00Z models continue dry conditions over central and southeast IL Sat
night as clouds increase overnight over northern areas. Lows Sat
night in the mid 20s eastern IL and upper 20s to near 30F central
and western IL, with temps nearly steady or slowing rising later Sat
night as southerly winds start to increase and clouds increase
especially over IL river valley. Strong surface low pressure around
990 mb passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday as it tracks eastward
over southern Canada and brings a cold front SE across IL Sunday
evening. Have increase chances of rain showers during day Sunday
especially Sunday afternoon. Could be cold enough early Sunday
morning for mix of precipitation over IL river valley in NW counties
if precipitation starts prior to 9 am. Breezy SSW winds Sunday ahead
of cold front to start the warm up into the low to mid 50s. Rain
shower chances diminish from NW to SE Sunday night and mainly occur
Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night in mid 30s central IL and upper
30s in southeast IL.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal by early next week and this to
bring milder Pacific air into IL during early and middle part of
next week. Weak surface high pressure settles into the mid MS river
valley Monday and returns dry weather with mostly sunny skies.
Milder highs Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A surface low
tracking east across the Great Lakes Monday night to bring slight
chance of light rain showers north and NE of I-74 with most of rain
showers passing north of central IL. Milder highs in the mid to
upper 60s expected Tue and Wed with low to mid 60s on Thu. Next wx
system to bring chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Have slight chances of showers
lingering over eastern/SE IL Thu then another chance of showers
arriving next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Main forecast concern is for brief MVFR conditions at KCMI. Area
of snow showers in east central Illinois has been shifting more
into Indiana and should largely be out of the area by 19Z, but
some lower ceilings around 2500 feet are still upstream, being
influenced by flow off Lake Michigan. Am expecting ceilings to
lift above 3000 feet after an hour or two.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will be prevailing over central Illinois
the next 24 hours. Any lingering clouds this afternoon should be
diminishing late afternoon as daytime heating diminishes. Winds
will remain gusty out of the north for a few more hours, then
become light and gradually turn easterly tonight, as high pressure
settles into the Great Lakes region.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.UPDATE...
715 AM CDT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND
AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE SHORE WEAKENS. DISORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE THE SNOW
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING...CLOUD LAYER TEMPERATURES FAVORING LARGE
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION.
SPS AND GRAPHICAL NOW CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IMPACTS TO MORNING
COMMUTE.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
335 AM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STEERED HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION...WITH -35C OBSERVED AT 500MB AT GRB LAST EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR...AS SAMPLED WITH -13C AT 850MB...HAS
HELPED CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORT OF THE LAKE HAS
FAVORED A FOCUS WITH 25-30DBZ AND REPORTS INDICATING BRIEF HEAVIER
SNOW IN THESE SHOWERS...INCLUDING IN CHICAGO AS OF 330 AM.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE SHORE OF WISCONSIN HAVE INDICATED A
BACKING WIND TO MORE NORTHWEST...A SIGN THE CONVERGENCE SHIFTS BACK
OVER THE LAKE AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS ENDING OF THE MORE FOCUSED SNOW SHOWERS IS AS FAR
SOUTH AS MILWAUKEE AS OF 330 AM AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD...LIKELY ENDING THE TEMPORARY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW BY
DAYBREAK IN THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK BUT SEE LESS ORGANIZATION
AND A SLOW DIMINISHING AS CONVERGENCE WANES AND DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI ADVECTS SOUTHWARD.
GIVEN REPORTS AND WEBCAMS OF SNOW ON EVEN PAVED SURFACES...HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS WITH POSSIBLY UP TO AN ISOLATED INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. WE DO THINK THE IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE RUSH HOUR FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST COOK COUNTY AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...THE MAJORITY OF
THE RUSH HOUR WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPORARY
BURSTS CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
DESPITE AT LEAST TEMPORARY SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAXS. THEY ARE
FORECAST TO FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE RECORDS /31 IN
1965 IN RFD AND 26 IN 1904 IN CHICAGO/. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS OF THIS MORNING MOVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. WITH THE LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST OUTLYING PLACES.
MTF
&&
.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SHUNT THE
IMPRESSIVE WESTERN MID/UPPER RIDGE EAST...BRINGING HEIGHT
RISES...THOUGH COLD AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT MIXING. 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW -10 CELSIUS UNTIL THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 40. ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SHORE AND
INLAND TEMPS...AS LATEST LAKE SFC TEMP OBS ARE GENERALLY IN MID-
UPPER 30S OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 20S
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING...SO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION DUE TO
RAPID HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AREA FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY STOUT
BUT SHEARED MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA AND AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN PRECIP BLOSSOMING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN BY THE TIME IT STARTS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH ECMWF ON SLOWER SLIDE...BUT MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE EVENING. HAVE BUMPED UP TO HIGH END LIKELY
POPS...WITH LINGERING LOW CHANCES IN THE EVENING. OTHER CONCERN
ON SUNDAY IS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG ISALLOBARIC
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEPARTURE OF SFC HIGH AND APPROACH OF COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL FROPA. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL MAKE FOR A RAW DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AS WE TRANSITION INTO MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE MAINLY LOW/SLIGHT CHC
POPS WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM NEARBY ON MONDAY NIGHT. MOST
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES ARE NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WITH
EXCEPTION OF 00Z CANADIAN...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME. NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO 50S AS SHOWN ON OPERATIONAL
GFS...MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FROM THE 50S ON MONDAY TO PRIMARILY 60S ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND THEN
ONTO IL SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING SHORE TEMPS COOLER.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE TO DIMINISH TO THE EAST OF
ORD/MDW.
* WINDS 350-010 BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST IN EXCESS
OF 10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
* VFR CIGS 3500-4000 FT CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH DRYING AND LESS OF A FOCUS FROM THE LAKE HELPING TO
END MUCH OF THE SNOW AT ORD AND MDW PRIOR TO 14Z. FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. GYY IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD...THOUGH THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE
SOMEHWAT UNORGANIZED OFF THE LAKE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WORSE
THAN 1-3SM VISIBILITY.
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO UNDULATE SOME IN COVERAGE TODAY BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND BROKEN. WITH MORE DRY AIR FILTERING IN...BASES AT
TIMES OF BROKEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ABOVE MVFR.
AS THE SYNOPTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WINDS WILL WANT TO TRANSITION MORE TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THROUGH
MID-MORNING HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO DUE
NORTH...AND SO SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS PROBABLE BEFORE THE SHIFT MORE OFF THE LAKE.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND DIRECTION DETAILS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH ALL
OTHER ELEMENTS.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. WEST WINDS.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
412 AM CDT
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN IS WITH HIGHER END SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GALES ON
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOR CRITERIA WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY...AND FOR LINGERING WAVES INTO SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST AND UP TO 45 KT ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE
IS A FEW HOUR WINDOW ON SUNDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD EVEN GET CLOSE TO
STORM FORCE ON THE NORTH HALF. A GALE WATCH AND THEN WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN LAKE DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH NEAR LAKE FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAND ALSO
POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER END GALES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT AND THEN DIMINISH...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY.
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE OVER THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS FOR
A PORTION OF THE LAKE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
952 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Have updated the forecast to add scattered snow showers for the
eastern 2 columns of counties in the forecast area, for the rest
of the morning. Latest radar imagery showing snow showers that
originated over Lake Michigan streaming southward. Danville
visibility now down to 3 miles and some other heavier showers will
be tracking along the Vermilion/Champaign County line. Would not
be surprised to see a dusting of accumulation in some areas, but
temperatures still expected to rise above freezing this afternoon,
so these should not last. The area has shown some diminishing with
time with no direct connection to the lake now, so have limited
the PoP`s to slight chances along and south of I-70.
Elsewhere, a large area of clearing has been taking place from
Galesburg to Bloomington, spreading southward. Layer relative
humidity plots from the RAP model indicate some of this may fill
in again this afternoon with diurnal development. Temperatures
generally on track and only required minor tweaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
An upper level shortwave trough axis will cross central IL early in
the morning with deep northerly flow continuing to advect cold air
into the region through the day today. Brisk northerly winds 10 to
15 mph will continue much of the day before beginning to taper off
late in the afternoon as surface high pressure approaches from the
west, weakening pressure gradients over the area. Combined with
highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, it will be a fairly chilly day
for this time of year. Cloud cover will be prevalent early in the
morning as the trough axis crosses, then tapering off west to east
throughout the day as subsidence behind the trough sets in. Some
lake-enhanced cloud cover and flurries could affect Vermilion and
Edgar counties late this morning into early afternoon, but otherwise
not much indication that cloud cover associated with the shortwave
will produce any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A cold night ahead for central and southeast IL as 1029 mb Canadian
high pressure over western Ontario into the eastern Dakotas settles
into the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning and ridges south
into IL overnight into Sat morning. Meanwhile another northern
stream short wave dives SE across central/NE IA/MO overnight and
keeps it light snow chances SW of IL though may get some clouds in
west central and SW IL. Lows tonight in the upper teens NE areas
where less clouds and lower 20s SW areas. This would be above record
lows on Sat morning Mar 28 ranging from 5-15F.
Short wave trof passes across IL Sat morning and into KY/TN by
sunset Sat while 1028 mb Canadian high pressure settles into the
Ohio river valley. This to ensure another chilly day across IL with
highs in the lower 40s and even some upper 30s in east central IL.
Some passing clouds Sat morning give way to more sunshine Sat
afternoon.
00Z models continue dry conditions over central and southeast IL Sat
night as clouds increase overnight over northern areas. Lows Sat
night in the mid 20s eastern IL and upper 20s to near 30F central
and western IL, with temps nearly steady or slowing rising later Sat
night as southerly winds start to increase and clouds increase
especially over IL river valley. Strong surface low pressure around
990 mb passes north of Lake Superior on Sunday as it tracks eastward
over southern Canada and brings a cold front SE across IL Sunday
evening. Have increase chances of rain showers during day Sunday
especially Sunday afternoon. Could be cold enough early Sunday
morning for mix of precipitation over IL river valley in NW counties
if precipitation starts prior to 9 am. Breezy SSW winds Sunday ahead
of cold front to start the warm up into the low to mid 50s. Rain
shower chances diminish from NW to SE Sunday night and mainly occur
Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night in mid 30s central IL and upper
30s in southeast IL.
Upper level flow becomes more zonal by early next week and this to
bring milder Pacific air into IL during early and middle part of
next week. Weak surface high pressure settles into the mid MS river
valley Monday and returns dry weather with mostly sunny skies.
Milder highs Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A surface low
tracking east across the Great Lakes Monday night to bring slight
chance of light rain showers north and NE of I-74 with most of rain
showers passing north of central IL. Milder highs in the mid to
upper 60s expected Tue and Wed with low to mid 60s on Thu. Next wx
system to bring chances of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Have slight chances of showers
lingering over eastern/SE IL Thu then another chance of showers
arriving next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
Mainly VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. Breezy north
winds will decrease and shift to more easterly as high pressure
drifts into the region. SCT-BKN cloud cover at 4-6 kft AGL across
central IL in the morning will gradually clear from the west
through the day. Local MVFR ceilings will take place through the
early afternoon in eastern sections of the state along with a
possibility of isolated -SHSN associated with lake effect from
Lake Michigan.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 42 78 48 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 72 42 80 47 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 74 45 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 73 42 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 60 40 75 47 / 30 0 0 10
P28 60 40 75 48 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
HIGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL TRACK TOWARD NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO MATCH THE LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE MT. KATAHDIN
REGION.THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOWED SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA(0.01") W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 6.0C/KM. HRLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO MATCH UP THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOWING WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...A MDTLY STRONG UPPER TROF OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AND
OH/TN RVR VLYS WILL BE MOVG SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE NEAR TERM. SOME
OF THE UPPER LVL DYNAMICS FROM THIS UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN WEAK
SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLC STATES COAST LATE TNGT INTO SAT.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SN SHWRS
LATER TNGT MSLY OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...PARTICULARLY OVR THE
CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS.
AS THE SFC LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED S OF THE GULF OF ME ON
SAT...SN SHWRS WILL TRANSLATE SE OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA BY
SAT AFTN...WITH PERHAPS EVEN STEADY LGT SNFL BRUSHING THE
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST...
SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. SO WITH CHC OR LESS POPS OVR THE SRN
PTN OF THE FA...WE GO WITH SN SHWR CVRG WORDING. MOST LCTNS
RECEIVING ANY SN OVR W CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM LATE
TNGT THRU SAT WILL RECEIVE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH...WITH
LCLY ARND AN INCH POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST/OUTER ISLANDS...BEFORE SN SHWRS MOVE SE OF THE
REGION SAT EVE. A STEADY CLRG TREND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS NW TO SE
THRU THE REGION SAT NGT.
WITH MSLY TO FULLY CLDY SKIES AND A LGT N BREEZE TNGT...TEMPS WILL
COOL AS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE INTO THE FA...BUT
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL OF SIG COLDER VLY OVRNGT LOWS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SFC INVSN FORMATION POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG F COLDER THAN TDY. THE APCH OF THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS TO THE WRN ME/ERN QB BORDER BY ERLY SUN MORN MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME WEAK SFC INVSN FORMATION AND DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS FROM
WINDS ALF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORN FOR COLDER LOW TEMPS ACROSS NRN AND
SPCLY WRN BROAD RVR VLY LCTNS...OTHERWISE A STEADY NW BREEZE WILL
LIMIT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THAN 20 DEG F FROM HI TEMPS
ON SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES CENTRAL
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
MAINLY AS SNOW, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MEAN THAT
AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH
DOWNEAST AREAS LIKELY CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END, ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT THE HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM; THE GFS HAS A 985 LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MEANWHILE HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER- MOVING LOW THAT WILL TREK
OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. IF THE STRONGER, WETTER SOLUTION COMES TRUE, IT
COULD VERY WELL MEAN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALL OF THE TAF SITES HAVE RECOVERED TO AT LEAST LOW VFR
FROM MVFR CLGS EARLIER THIS AFTN. VFR SHOULD CONT THRU ALL OF THE
EVE...THEN MODELS...INCLUDING THE SREF CONDITIONAL CLG CATEGORY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLGS LOWERING TO MVFR ALL TAF SITES LATE TNGT
OR ERLY SAT MORN AS AN UPPER LVL TROF APCHS FROM THE W. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ISOLD TO SCT SN SHWR AS WELL SAT...
SPCLY OVR DOWNEAST SITES. OTHERWISE...CLGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO AT
LEAST LOW VFR SAT AFTN INITIALLY ACROSS THE N...THEN DOWNEAST
LATE...FOLLOWED BY UNLMTD VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
SAT NGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES AS NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE
THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES A SE SWELL CONTG MSLY OVR OUR
OUTER WATERS THRU TNGT...JUSTIFYING THE CONTINUATION OF THE SCA
FOR HAZ SEAS OVR THIS REGION. AFTWRDS...A GENERIC SCA WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUT WATERS FROM ERLY SAT MORN...LIKELY INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HRS SUN MORN DUE TO WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE SFC
LOW MOVG E INTO THE OPEN ATLC FROM THE MID ATLC STATES. THERE ALSO
MAY BE ENOUGH COLD LLVL ADVCN BY LATE SAT NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN
FOR A BRIEF PD OF LGT FZGSPY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH WINDS LOOK
TO BE MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
PCPN CHANCES LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
LARGE SCALE MID TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN AT 00Z LAST EVENING FEATURED
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA UP INTO WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY HAD MOVED DOWN INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND HALF AN INCH OCCURRED IN SOME OF
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN KOFK AND KYKN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL DATA
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE MOST RECENT 13 KM RAP
MODEL RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS PCPN MAY REACH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON PCPN TYPE...BUT
OPTED TO INCLUDE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE
NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF THE PCPN WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE RAP
AND HRRR ARE HINTING AT MORE SNOW. FOR NOW...EXPECT LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE 40S.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT 850 MB...WITH COLDEST AIR IN IOWA. DID
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY THERE
(WESTERN IOWA) FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY INTO THE 60S.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. KEPT A SMALL MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS AND
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PCPN WILL BE ALL LIQUID.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CONCERN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
WITH FRONTAL TIMING ON WEDNESDAY...SO JUST KEPT A BLEND OF THE
OUTPUT FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
DOWN INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID ADD A
PROB30 GROUP FOR KOMA FOR -RA/SN LATE THIS EVENING BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR AS A
FINE LINE WHICH HAS JUST MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH KINSTON AND
WASHINGTON A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST BY GUIDANCE. INITIAL
BATCH OF RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS/ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 16Z ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP FORECAST REMAINDER OF TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WHILE THE BULK OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OFFSHORE BY 00Z...SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN DEEP 500 MB TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL
OCCUR AS RAIN...PLUMMETING THICKNESS VALUES LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TOWARD MORNING. QPF IS MEAGER AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...WHICH REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S...NO REAL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
-10C SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY AND
WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NC. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S SO ANY SNOW WOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN. IN ADDITION GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
THUS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD MELT SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION. ONLY CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SC SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE COUNTIES INTO
SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODELS ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW BEGUN FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...SO A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
COULD SEE A FREEZE FOR THE OUTER BANKS...ESP THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
BUT BEING MORE MARGINAL WITH THE NW BREEZE...AT THIS TIME WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE. LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING IN
THE MID 20S/LOW 30S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S...COOLEST ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RETURN GUSTY SW FLOW BRINGS
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES COME INTO PLAY IN TIMING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW MON/MON NIGHT ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR
NOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND TIMING DIFFERENCES.
TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILING WILL THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SCATTERED RAIN HAS DEVELOPMENT BEHIND
THE POTENT COLD FRONT...PRODUCING SOME MODERATE/HVY SHOWERS AT
TIMES AND REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR. PLUS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH SOME LIGHT POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILING CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AROUND 10KTS. SOUNDING MODELS AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BACK APPROXLY 13/14Z
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SAT WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS. PRED VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND
CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE
NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FEET BY
AFTERNOON WITH ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT
PER LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NW FLOW 15-25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.
GUSTY WINDS SAT MORNING...THEN COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH CAA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE WNW SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS MON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6FT...HIGHEST S OF OREGON INLET. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY MON MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NIGHT. TUE
WINDS LESS THAN 15KT NNW IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SSW BY TUE
EVENING WITH SEAS 2-4FT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.
PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.
LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH DOWNSLOPING KICKING IN...BUT WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAINLY AT 295K CONTINUES TO ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE RIDGES DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE WARMING
TREND...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING MAX TEMPS JUST A TAD. HRRR STILL
WANTS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BUT LOOKING AT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
AND THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...NEARLY PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROF PATTERN YIELDING FULL LATITUDE TROF AXIS ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WAVE OUT AHEAD
ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING
INTO/THROUGH THE I85 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH. THE FRONT ITSELF CAN ACTUALLY BE SEEN ON RADAR VIA THE KGSP
HALF DEGREE TILT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GSP AREA. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE
LEAST DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE THE FCST HAS BEEN TAILORED BACK WITH RESPECT TO POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA WHERE ONLY ISOLATED
POPS ARE FEATURED THROUGH DAYBREAK...FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN CATEGORICAL POPS PREVAIL. LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE
SHOWER EXPANSION ALONG AND SOUTH OF I85 THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIDES SOUTH INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE THEREFORE LIKELY POPS PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE BEING LOWERED. FURTHER
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...POPS REMAIN AT LIKELY
LEVELS FOR THE TIME BEING BEFORE BEING GRADUALLY REDUCED TO CHANCE
LEVELS BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF AXIS WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYS END WITH ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION PATTERN RIDING
ALONG. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TROF BASE SLIDING ATOP THE TN
VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE DAY TODAY YIELDING INCREASED NW FLOW OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AS BROAD CHANNELED VORTICITY BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...KEEPING POPS ELEVATED OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE SUB ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS FCST. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND NEAR FREEZING LEVELS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NC...WILL BE ISSUING FREEZE WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THREATENING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. REGARDING FROST ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE
NC/SC PIEDMONT...EXPECTING WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO LEVELS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROST DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE NO FROST PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT SETTLES BRIEFLY OVER THE EAST...WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING. AFTER
SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS A TRAILING SHORT
WAVE IS CHANNELED AND HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER
TOP OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BEING THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE FOURTH PERIOD OF THE FCST...PREFER TO WAIT FOR
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE BEFORE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...JUST IN CASE
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND THAT SHOULD PUSH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL NOT
MODERATE MUCH...THOUGH...AND WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN AND ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...REACHING
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION THRU MIDDAY MONDAY.
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ELIMINATING THE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE N/NW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS/FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...SO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE KEPT ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE
STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE. AN UPPER TROF AXIS OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THAT WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THRU TUESDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES. THINK MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY AS A RESULT. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE WEST
THRU TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
W/SW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WAS REMOVED
FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
LOOKS UNSETTLED AS FIRST THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE BRINGS UPPER SUPPORT
FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A NRN
STREAM WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR CLT AT TAF TIME BUT WITH LOW VFR
CIGS JUST TO THE WEST. STILL SOME -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY
WEST OF CLT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON SHRA/VCSH MENTION IN THE TAF FOR
NOW. EXPECT THAT CLT WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 21-22Z WITH A SLOW
LIFTING TREND TO VFR AT THAT TIME. N WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20KT WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BACKING MORE NW OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 6KFT UNTIL DOWNSLOPING
KICKS IN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
NW...WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY AND SCATTER OUT. SOME HINTS AT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BETWEEN 60-70 PERCENT RH...AFTER 15Z SATURDAY
SO HAVE INTRODUCED FEW035 FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BACK UP
TO AROUND 10KT.
ELSEWHERE...VERY SIMILAR TREND TO CLT BUT INITIALIZING MAINLY LOW
VFR WITH ONLY SPOTTY MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF -SHRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH LIFTING TREND IN CIGS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N WINDS
BACKING TO NW ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT
FOR ALL BUT KAVL...WHERE SOME LOW VFR CIGS MAY REMAIN THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE. CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO -SHSN
ALONG THE TN LINE AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FLURRIES AT KAVL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN TAFS...WITH CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY SITE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 90% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28TH...
GSP 26 1982
CLT 25 1982
AVL 11 1887
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH...
GSP 26 1899
CLT 26 2013
AVL 19 1982
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ010.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-507>510.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...PM