Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/25/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1010 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015 .UPDATE... OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE MAINLY TO CLEAN UP SOME OF THE EVENING WORDING. THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH NORTHEAST CA AS WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF SNOW NEAR THE LASSEN-MODOC COUNTY LINE ALONG HIGHWAY 299, WHILE THE BOGARD WEB CAMERA IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY SHOWED SNOW STARTING TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROAD AFTER 9 PM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHEAST CA, WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE PAST HOUR OVER WESTERN PLUMAS AND SIERRA COUNTIES, AND THE PRECIP BAND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS PRECIP BAND, AND WHILE SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST NV LATER TONIGHT, THIS BAND IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE RENO AREA. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, PRECIP HAS DECREASED FOR THE MOMENT, BUT MORE BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN SUFFICIENTLY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON MOST AREA PASSES. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, BUT SOME LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 6000 FEET. ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH THE CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS, ALTHOUGH THE DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT (2 HOURS OR LESS) AS THE BANDS ARE NARROW AND MOVING QUICKLY. FARTHER EAST, WEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH HAVE KICKED UP SOME DUST AT THE LOVELOCK AIRPORT WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 3/4 MILE. THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES UNTIL MIDNIGHT, AFFECTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON I-80 BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND WINNEMUCCA. WHILE THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL NV ON MONDAY AS WEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. MJD && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ SYNOPSIS... A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. HIGH ELEVATION PASSES WILL LIKELY BE SNOW COVERED MONDAY MORNING FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER INTO TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. SHORT TERM... MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TROUGH ALONG 130W THAT IS NEARING THE COAST. AS IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SPRING SYSTEMS, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED COMPARED TO WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE IN MID-WINTER. MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, THEY ARE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS HAS CERTAINLY BEEN THE CASE SO FAR WITH PEAK GUSTS ONLY TO 35 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THOSE WIND PRONE AREAS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WHILE RIDGES COULD GUST TO 75 MPH. AS FOR THE PRECIP NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND LAST 2-4 HOURS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE INTO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. AROUND 1/2 INCH OF PRECIP POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF I-80 WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR 6500-7000 THEN LOWER 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA PASSES TONIGHT WHICH MAY CREATE SOME SLICK ROADS. SNOW WILL REACH LAKE LEVEL AROUND TAHOE OVERNIGHT, BUT LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS THAT LOW ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SLUSH. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP QUICKLY EXITS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS WEAK IT IS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SIERRA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST INTO WRN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE JET STREAM THEN LINGERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE FLOW FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT LEAST NORTH OF SUSANVILLE- GERLACH. FURTHER SOUTH, JUST EXPECT CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THEN THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WARMING, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECT THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF WARMING LATER IN THE WEEK. WALLMANN LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THEREFORE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST RECENT MODEL VARIATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL TRENDING WARMER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY STALLING SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. EXPECTING HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. AS EXPECTED, SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, MODEL DEPICTIONS OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, OFFSET BY 12 TO 24 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY`S FORECAST. SINCE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THERE BEING A LITTLE MORE ROOM TO DELAY LOW PRESSURE, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA. IF THE LATEST RUNS VERIFY, SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. BOYD AVIATION... CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINAL GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE MID/UPPER 20S WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRNO AND KTVL WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT MORE WESTWARD BY 14Z. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE FOR AIRCRAFT OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE FROM 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO OVER 65 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE THIS EVENING WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SIERRA. SOME MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SIERRA TERMINALS DURING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW. RUNWAYS MAY BECOME INTERMITTENTLY SLICK AS BURSTS OF SNOW ALLOW FOR BRIEF ACCUMULATION. THESE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD QUICKLY MELT LEAVING KTRK/KTVL WET AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE ROCKIES; WINDS WILL SLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. BOYD && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002. CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .AVIATION... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE TO LIGHT NNW AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KAPF OVERNIGHT...LEFT MENTION OUR FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ UPDATE... COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH UPPER WAVE AHEAD OF IT, MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THUNDER CHANCES LOOK SMALL, WITH MEAGER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NECESSARY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THUS FAR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES LESS COVERAGE AND IS SLOWER IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE PENINSULA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUFFICIENT DAY TIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE BE AN OVERALL THREAT WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT SIGNIFICANT. LASTLY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FOR SEVERAL DAYS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS STILL GENERAL CONSENSUS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALMOST A 24 HOUR DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO CHANGES IN FUTURE GUIDANCE. MARINE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND SEAS COULD REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH VARYING GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TIMING PURPOSES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 69 87 70 87 / 30 10 10 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 71 84 71 84 / 20 10 10 20 MIAMI 71 87 71 85 / 20 10 10 20 NAPLES 69 84 67 85 / 20 10 0 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1014 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH UPPER WAVE AHEAD OF IT, MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THUNDER CHANCES LOOK SMALL, WITH MEAGER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES NECESSARY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ AVIATION... SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. BELIEVE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT KAPF AROUND 04Z-06Z AND THE EAST COAST SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THUS FAR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES LESS COVERAGE AND IS SLOWER IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE PENINSULA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUFFICIENT DAY TIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE BE AN OVERALL THREAT WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT SIGNIFICANT. LASTLY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FOR SEVERAL DAYS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS STILL GENERAL CONSENSUS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALMOST A 24 HOUR DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO CHANGES IN FUTURE GUIDANCE. MARINE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND SEAS COULD REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH VARYING GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TIMING PURPOSES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 87 70 / 40 30 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 85 71 84 71 / 30 20 10 10 MIAMI 86 71 87 71 / 30 20 10 10 NAPLES 83 69 84 67 / 40 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21/KM LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .AVIATION... SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE AND THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW. BELIEVE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT KAPF AROUND 04Z-06Z AND THE EAST COAST SITES TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015/ DISCUSSION... A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THUS FAR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES LESS COVERAGE AND IS SLOWER IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE PENINSULA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUFFICIENT DAY TIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE BE AN OVERALL THREAT WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT SIGNIFICANT. LASTLY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FOR SEVERAL DAYS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS STILL GENERAL CONSENSUS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALMOST A 24 HOUR DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO CHANGES IN FUTURE GUIDANCE. MARINE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND SEAS COULD REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH VARYING GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TIMING PURPOSES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 87 70 / 40 30 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 85 71 84 71 / 30 20 10 10 MIAMI 86 71 87 71 / 30 20 10 10 NAPLES 83 69 84 67 / 40 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...60/BD LONG TERM....60/BD AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR TODAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THUS FAR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES LESS COVERAGE AND IS SLOWER IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE PENINSULA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SUFFICIENT DAY TIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE INDICATES A PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE BE AN OVERALL THREAT WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT SIGNIFICANT. LASTLY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT JUST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE MIGHT SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FOR SEVERAL DAYS A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEEN FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS STILL GENERAL CONSENSUS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALMOST A 24 HOUR DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO CHANGES IN FUTURE GUIDANCE. && .MARINE... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND SEAS COULD REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITH VARYING GUIDANCE AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FURTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TIMING PURPOSES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 85 69 87 70 / 40 30 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 85 71 84 71 / 30 20 10 10 MIAMI 86 71 87 71 / 30 20 10 10 NAPLES 83 69 84 67 / 40 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...60/BD LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS... CURRENTLY-TODAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STARTING TO PUSH INLAND RECENTLY. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF CONVECTION PUSHING EAST AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS OUR NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES POINT TO LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER STRONG AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK APPROACH...BUT WITH THE PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF EARLY...THERE WILL BE LIMITED HEATING/INSTABILITY. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO HEAT UP...REACHING THE LOWER-MID 80S...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR THERE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE RATHER QUICK MOVING...BUT SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. TONIGHT...THE VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WITH A WEAK VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH...LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH EVENING. A WEAK BOUNDARY AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE USUALLY POINT TO LATE NIGHT FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THAT IN THE FORECAST. TUE-WED... STRONG ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE REGIONAL MID/UPR LVL WIND PATTERN WILL PUSH THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE...THEN OFF THE SERN SEABOARD TUE NIGHT. THERE...IT WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF IN THE VCNTY OF THE BAHAMA BANK BEFORE MERGING WITH LARGER RIDGE BUILDS INTO OVER THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND STATES. TRACK OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A SHALLOW E/NE FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL ON TUE THAT WILL VEER TO THE S ON WED WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PULLING STABLE MID LVL AIR ACRS THE STATE. GFS INDICATES THERMAL RIDGING IN THE H85-H70 LYR THRU MID WEEK...IN LINE WITH THE LAPSE RATES ASSOCD WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS: RUC40 SHOWING H85-H70 LAPSE RATES AOB 5.0C/KM ACRS E TX AND THE LWR MS VALLEY...VALUES AS LOW AS 2.5C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX. RUC ALSO SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL TROF...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW ATLC AND BLOCKS OUT ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FL. ZONAL JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ADD ANY SIG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE TO THE EQUATION EITHER. LIMITED MOISTURE ON TUE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THRU WED AS LOW LVL WINDS SHIFT TO THE S AND BEGIN TO TAP TROPICAL AIR. HOWEVER...THE DRY/STABLE POST FRONTAL AIR WILL TAKE TIME TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLGT CHC POPS...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL/SRN COUNTIES. NE WINDS TUE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M80S INLAND. SRLY WINDS WED WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE L/M80S AREAWIDE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M60S. THU-SUN... GFS/ECM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ZONAL WIND PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BCM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A 140KT JET STREAK OVER THE W PAC WORKS ITS WAY EWD. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRI AFTN AND CONT THRU SAT AS THE UPSTREAM JET ENERGY PLOWS INTO THE WRN CONUS AND INDUCES A FULL LATITUDE FRONTAL TROF OVER E MS RIVER VALLEY. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT FROPA...TIMING LOOKING MORE TOWARD FRI NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL GO WITH LOW END PRECIP CHANGES THRU THU AS LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES FRI AFTN THRU SAT AFTN...DECREASING BLO MENTIONABLE LVLS SAT NIGHT AS THE TROF PUSHES THE FRONT CLEAR OF THE FL PENINSULA. PREFRONTAL MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST AND M/U80S INTERIOR...POST FRONTAL TEMPS M60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST AND L/M70S INTERIOR. PREFRONTAL MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT M/U60S...DROPPING INTO THE M/U50S N OF I-4 FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FL. SAT NIGHT NOTICABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE L/M50 OVER MOST OF THE CWA...A FEW SPOTS FALLING BLO 50F N OF I-4. && .AVIATION...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHED THE REMNANT FOG AWAY FROM THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS NORTHWARD FROM KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO KVRB-KSUA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY 30-40 MPH WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT COULD BECOME DENSE SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET RAIN WETTED TODAY AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...A MAINLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST 5-10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SWING AROUND TO NORTH TONIGHT FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING FROM ABOUT MELBOURNE NORTHWARD...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THERE. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. TUE-TUE NIGHT...HI PRES BUILDING N OF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG A MODERATE SE BREEZE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD. SEAS 2- 4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE BUILDING TO 4-6FT AREAWIDE...UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM AFT SUNSET. WED-WED NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH S/SE BREEZE AS THE W ATLC RIDGE IS REINFORCED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5/7FT OFFSHORE. THU-THU NIGHT...GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG SW AFT SUNSET AS THE NEXT FRONTAL TROF PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE. FRI-FRI NIGHT...GENTLE TO MODERATE W/SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS VEERING TO W/NW FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU CENTRAL FL. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 62 80 66 / 70 20 10 20 MCO 80 63 86 66 / 70 20 10 10 MLB 80 64 83 69 / 60 30 10 20 VRB 83 64 82 65 / 50 30 10 20 LEE 79 62 84 64 / 70 20 10 10 SFB 79 62 84 66 / 70 20 10 10 ORL 80 64 85 66 / 70 20 10 10 FPR 83 61 82 65 / 50 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)... IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 120 KNOT JET MAX OVER GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW AND WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING...WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ON THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INFLUENCING THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ALREADY HAS SHOWERS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THE HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE RAIN BANDS MOVING INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 12Z AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD REACHING THE CHARLOTTE HARBOR AREA BETWEEN 15-18Z. WE HAVE NOT SEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...IT WILL FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...... MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FAST FLAT QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MIDWEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRIDGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH VEERING EAST-SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC BRINGING SOME MOISTURE RETURN FOR LOW END DIURNAL POPS MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY...LARGE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GULF REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STORM CENTER TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH ATTENDANT STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH FLORIDA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...NOW INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WHILE JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER SUPPORT TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH NW FLOW BY SUNDAY AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON BREEZY NW-N WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES 10 PLUS DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THIS MORNING AS VFR...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LOW/MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 21Z AND AFTER 03Z FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN CLEARING UP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGES OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WILL STAY ABOVE ANY CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW ERC VALUES...NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 66 81 66 / 70 10 10 10 FMY 82 66 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 GIF 80 63 84 65 / 70 20 10 10 SRQ 79 65 80 63 / 60 10 10 0 BKV 80 59 82 59 / 70 10 10 10 SPG 80 68 81 68 / 70 10 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
120 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM... 308 PM CDT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... THE FOCUS ON THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST WAS SNOW IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN RAIN TIMING...AMOUNTS...AND WHETHER THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SO IN OTHER WORDS...A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME PATTERN IN THE MIDWEST. THE AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF REFLECTIVITY PERSISTING FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE NORTH CHICAGO METRO. TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE IL STATE LINE AND FURTHER NORTHWEST THIS CORRIDOR HAS FILLED IN WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW AND ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY. DESPITE THIS NEAR PROXIMITY...THINK THAT FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MAINLY SEE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PARTS OF WINNEBAGO...BOONE...AND INTO MCHENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES COULD GET INTO A BRIEF SNOW BURST OR TWO...BUT ANYTHING OF THAT NATURE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF VISIBILITY AND DEW POINTS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL OFFSET SOME OF THESE RATES COMING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK. OF MORE CONCERN IS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE BUT WELL- DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA NEARS THE REGION. BY OVERNIGHT THE LOW-LEVEL INFLUENCE OF THIS WILL HELP INCREASE 700-925MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENDING THE DRY AIR SUPPRESSION AND LIKELY LEADING TO A BLOSSOMING OF SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FROM THE GET GO AND ATTENTION HAS BEEN ON KEYING IN HOW PERSISTENT AND WHERE MESOSCALE FORCING WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SNOW ON MONDAY MORNING. CONCEPTUALLY THIS TYPE OF PACIFIC SYSTEM...WITH ALMOST A CLIPPER NATURE AS IT COMES IN TOMORROW MORNING...WOULD HAVE A FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT WITHIN ITS FOCUSED BUT DEEP VERTICAL MOTION. GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALREADY ALONG THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH JUST A LEAD PERTURBATION...AND THE FORECAST OF NEGATIVE EPV / INSTABILITY FROM MOST GUIDANCE...THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM HAVING MODERATE SNOW DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE...WITH AN AREA OF TEMPORARY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. THE CHALLENGE IS KEYING IN ON HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT HEAVIER SNOW EXTENDS AND HOW LONG. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE NORTH CENTRAL IL MOST FAVORED IN DURATION BUT LIKELY AT LEAST SOME HEAVY BURSTS EXTENDING EAST INTO A PART OF THE CHICAGO METRO. MIXING RATIOS OF 2 TO 3 G/KG ON LIFTED LAYERS LOOK TO OFFSET NOT- THE-BEST THERMAL PROFILE FOR EFFICIENT RATIOS. IN THE FORECAST WE HAVE THIS SUPPORTING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3.5 INCHES IN MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL IL WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA...WITH RATES AT TIMES ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE MILD PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES /UPPER 40S TO MID 50S/. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE FAR SOUTH WHERE RATIOS LOOK TO BE QUITE LOW AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...POSSIBLY EVEN YIELDING A MIX FROM PONTIAC TO FOLWER AND SOUTHWARD. FOR RIGHT NOW HAVE FELT MOST COMFORTABLE GIVEN FORECAST SNOWFALL RATES AND TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ROCKFORD AREA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES...WHILE HITTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR A CORRIDOR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHICH SNOW WILL OCCUR...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF UPSTREAM SNOWFALL RATES COMPLIMENTING FURTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...WILL BETTER ENABLE THE EVENING SHIFT TO MAKE THAT DECISION IF NECESSARY. ANY PRECIPITATION BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN AS SATURATION IS LOST IN THE ICE NUCLEATION LAYER. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED BACK A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE PRECIP SPREAD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE...WHICH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO EASE RAIN SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY CLOSER TO THE EC...BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THAT MAY NEED TO BE SPED BACK UP. THE CHANCES FOR MORE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND PWATS SHARPLY INCREASE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH LOOK PLAUSIBLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THUNDER COVERAGE IS MORE THAN SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM... 300 PM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE STRONG LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO GEORGIAN BAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW INTENSITY LOOKS TO BE PEAKING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE A GOOD STRONG WIND SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT EVEN THE LOWER END GUIDANCE SHOWS 30+ KT GUST POTENTIAL STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH AND PROBABLY 60S SOUTH. A LESS FOCUSED UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK ANOTHER SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SATURDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNING TO THE AREA. WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S FRIDAY AND NEAR 40 SATURDAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIP MAY OCCUR ACROSS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE SHARP RIDGING BUILDS WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SHUNTING THE RIDGE EAST INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A WARM UP BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SO WARMING MAY END UP BEING SHORT LIVED. MDB && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVERNIGHT TO 18KT. * LGT SNOW UNTIL 10Z...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW PICKS UP ARND 10-12Z AND LINGERS THROUGH 15Z. * STEADIER SNOW WILL BRING IFR/LIFR CONDS FROM 11Z THRU 16Z. * SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFT MIDDAY. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A NARROW CHANNEL OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST WISC EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IL AND OVER ORD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NEAR SFC VERY DRY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE PRECIP INTENSITY VERY LIGHT AND ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY INCREASING ARND 9-10Z...AND LIKELY QUICKLY BRINING CIGS/VSBY DOWN TO ARND IFR CONDS. SHORTLY AFT 11Z THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL ARRIVE AND MAY REDUCE VSBYS DOWN TO ARND 1/2SM AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TO 1/4SM. THIS APPEARS TO IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z...THEN THE SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY PEELS EAST/SOUTHEAST AND QUICKLY BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW-END MVFR CIGS THRU MID AFTN. AS SNOW DIMINISHES MIDDAY IT MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH PERIOD. * HIGH FOR SNOW BY EARLY MORNING...MEDIUM FOR DETAILS OF CIG/VIS AS WELL AS EXACT START/END TIMES. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z... TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR EARLY. GUSTY WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS. THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR EARLY. SATURDAY...VFR. RATZER && .MARINE... 248 PM CDT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AND STEADILY TURN EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND THEN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE MAINTAINING STRENGTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE DUE EAST DIRECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL FLIP SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN SO A SHARP STABLE LAYER WILL DEVELOP LIMITING WIND GUST POTENTIAL. STILL EXPECT 30 KT ON THE OPEN WATERS BUT WITH MIXING SPREADING OFFSHORE NEARSHORE AREAS COULD EASILY SEE MID TO HIGH END GALES. THINGS SETTLE DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY BUT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR ALLOWING MIXING TO DEEPEN AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER END GALES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS KEEPING WINDS NORTHERLY BUT ALLOWING SPEEDS TO SLACKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MDB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008 UNTIL NOON MONDAY. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1143 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 Shortwave that will bring a wintry mix to parts of our area Monday morning was pushing across central North Dakota with a lead wave seen on the water vapor loop tracking into northwest Iowa. Narrow band of frontogenetical forcing snows that occurred well to our north late this afternoon into early this evening continuing to to hold its position roughly from LaCrosse to Chicago. Latest HRRR model suggests precip will start to push into our northern areas between 07z-10z with RAP soundings indicating most of the area to see surface temps above freezing, but barely, north of I-74, when the precip starts to move in. However, there will be enough evaporative cooling to see some sleet and possibly snow to mix in at times initially, especially across our northern counties where the low levels cool off significantly enough to bring about the threat for more of a sleet-snow mixture. Further south, the better lift doesn`t arrive until mid-morning and by then surface temperatures should be warm enough to support some light rain showers, which may mix with a little sleet at the start. All in all, it looks as if areas along and north of the I-74 corridor may see the mix move in just before the morning rush so there may be some slick spots to deal with on the way to work or school tomorrow morning. Have made some minor adjustments to the forecast for the rest of the evening hours, especially with the early evening temperatures and precip timing for late tonight. Should have the updated zones out by 900 pm. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 Main forecast concern for this part of the forecast is with timing of precipitation later tonight, and placement of any mixed precip. Narrow band of light snow has been tracking from south central Minnesota southeast into the Chicago area this afternoon. This has been occurring along a baroclinic zone near a developing 850 mb warm front. This thermal gradient will be slipping southward overnight, as additional precipitation develops in response to a shortwave currently pushing across South Dakota. Latest model trends have been to slow the arrival of this precipitation in our area a bit, reaching the Peoria area between 4 and 7 am. Forecast soundings there showing a tongue of warm air around 800 mb reaching +2 to +3C depending on the model, but quite a bit of dry air still present below that, indicating potential for sleet. Any rain mixed in initially will probably start to transition more toward snow as the column aloft moistens and ice crystals are produced in the -10C to -20C layer. Temperatures will be very close to freezing north of the I-74 corridor, so will need to watch for any freezing rain potential as well, but given the warmer ground temperatures as of late, the icing threat would be more toward elevated surfaces. Additionally, snow/sleet accumulation should be minimal as well. Arrival of the precipitation further south along the I-72 corridor would likely not be until after sunrise. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 Low pressure system moving into the upper Mississippi Valley area as of Sunday afternoon, will track across northern IL and southern WI Monday continuing to spread precipitation across central IL through Monday afternoon. With lingering cold air near the surface and a warm layer of southwesterly flow at 850 mb (~5000 ft), there will be potential for a mix of winter precipitation. The warm layer aloft looks sufficient to melt snow aloft to just north of the I-74 corridor, while surface/near surface temperatures below freezing extend to just south of the I-74 corridor so this area will be subject to mixed precipitation into early afternoon Monday. Initially, sleet, snow and some potential for freezing drizzle early in the morning, then mainly rain, and sleet into the early afternoon as surface temperatures rise. Highs should eventually reach around 40 north of I-74 ranging up to the low 50s from Jacksonville to Lawrenceville. As the first clipper system exits central/SE IL late Monday evening, another chance of rain showers arrive by overnight Monday night ahead of a warm front associated with a low pressure system approaching via the central Plains. Warm sector associated with this low will bring modest values of CAPE and strong bulk shear late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, although values still not consistent model to model. Strongest convective potential appears to be Tuesday afternoon over Missouri, but this activity could spread into west central IL. SPC Day 3 severe weather outlook for Tue afternoon/evening has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail/severe winds into our SW counties of Schuyler, Scott, Morgan and Cass during Tue evening. Forecast models continue to advertise diminishing chances for precipitation Wed. as the system shifts E/NE of central IL. Breezy WSW winds and partial clearing expected along with highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s, which will be the warmest day of the week. The 00Z extended forecast models continue to show strong upper level trough digging southward into the Midwest Thursday and Friday bringing mostly cloudy skies and a few light rain and snow showers Thu night into Fri morning. This will bring much colder temperatures with highs in upper 40s/lower 50s Thu and only in the upper 30s/lower 40s Friday. Temps slowly modify during the weekend with highs in the 50s by Sunday. GFS and ECMWF models show an upper level closed low moving into the western great lakes Sunday and returning chance of rain, or possibly snow showers to central IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VFR conditions are expected thru the 09z-11z time frame before some light precip develops from northwest to southeast helping to bring MVFR cigs to PIA and BMI initially, and then over the remainder of the sites by 15-16z as the area of precip shifts southeast. Precip type still an issue as it depends on what forecast sounding you look at with the overall consensus trending towards a mix of rain/sleet and snow and even the slight chance for a brief period of light freezing rain across our northern TAF sites. At this time, will opt to make it a rain/sleet/snow mix across the north with some rain and sleet by the time the precip reaches CMI by mid morning. However, surface temperatures will be very close to the freezing mark thru about 15z so some patchy slippery spots will be possible, however, with the recent warm weather we have had, not thinking we are going to see a widespread or prolonged period of icing at this point over PIA and BMI. Some of the high resolution radar simulations hint at the possibility for some convective elements embedded in the band of precip which would enhance the precip rates and may briefly change over to a period of light to moderate snow and sleet in the 10z-14z time frame, again mainly affecting the I-74 corridor (PIA, BMI). Most of the precip should push east of the area by 20z as the shortwave moves away from central IL. Surface winds will continue from an easterly direction at 10 to 15 kts tonight and continue that way on Monday, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible at times. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION GIVING US SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE LAFAYETTE...KOKOMO AND MUNCIE AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. FINALLY A STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED TO POPS TO BRING THINGS INTO THE NORTHWEST A BIT EARLIER...ALTHOUGH INITIAL ECHOES WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND. WETBULB EFFECTS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW THINGS TO FALL AS SNOW. WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A MIX ACROSS OUR NORTH AND RAIN ELSEWHERE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COULD SEE A DUSTING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH...BUT GROUND IS WARM AND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW ANYTHING TO STICK AROUND LONG. ADDITIONALLY...TIGHTENED MAX TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH OWING TO THE COOLING LIKELY TO OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MISSOURI. DRY EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE TEENS. RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE PROVIDING DYNAMICS OVER WISCONSIN POISED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY...COLD AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. VIRGA AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATED THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. THUS ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE EXPECT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH RAPID REFRESH PRECIP PROJECTIONS. GIVEN THE STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE A FACTOR. WITH MOST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT IF TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ENOUGH MELTING SHOULD OCCUR FOR SOME RAIN. ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAVMOS TEMP AT LAF APPEAR TOO COLD...WITH HOURLYS SUGGESTING MID 20S AT 06Z...WHILE CURRENTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WITH NO MID 20S UPSTREAM...WILL TREND MOST PRECIP TYPE TOWARD RAIN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED FLAKES POSSIBLE. THUS WILL USE A RAIN SNOW MIX TODAY. A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS TEMPS LOOKS TO WORK FINE...RESULTING MAINLY IN WARMER VALUES THAN MAVMOS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS TONIGHT AS RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RESUMES IT/S PRESENCE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WHILE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST THEN ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. ON TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RESUMES DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SE ONTARIO...PUMPING DRY AND COOL AIR TOWARD INDIANA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WITH CLOUDS ALOFT. MODELS THEN SUGGEST AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE ARRIVING BUY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED...NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSH NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN. WITH BEST DYNAMICS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY AND WILL FOCUS MAIN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING SITUATION AND MAVMOS RUNNING TOO COOL...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS TUESDAY AND LOW WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST TO TOWARD MICHIGAN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT..ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALOFT ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY FORECAST COLUMN WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY AND WILL TREND TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. AS THE STRONG WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP APPEAR IN PLAY...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS WARMER GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUDS. THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. GUESS SPRING IS HERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT SOME UPPER FORCING WILL LAG BEHIND IT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION GOING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT ALL LEVELS WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGE OVER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE...AND A MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SUNDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231500Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SITES LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ THINK KLAF WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KIND AND RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL TEMPO THESE IN AND USED HRRR FOR TIMING...ARRIVING IN KLAF AFTER 16Z AND FINALLY IN KBMG AROUND 20Z. THE SOUTHERN SITES MAY NOT SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR FOR NOW. AT KIND THOUGH EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH AND AT KLAF COULD SEE IFR WITH THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT /MAINLY ENE/ THROUGH THE DAY AND RUN AROUND 8-12 KTS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...CP/MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION GIVING US SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE LAFAYETTE...KOKOMO AND MUNCIE AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. FINALLY A STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MISSOURI. DRY EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE TEENS. RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE PROVIDING DYNAMICS OVER WISCONSIN POISED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY...COLD AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. VIRGA AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATED THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. THUS ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE EXPECT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH RAPID REFRESH PRECIP PROJECTIONS. GIVEN THE STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE A FACTOR. WITH MOST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT IF TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ENOUGH MELTING SHOULD OCCUR FOR SOME RAIN. ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAVMOS TEMP AT LAF APPEAR TOO COLD...WITH HOURLYS SUGGESTING MID 20S AT 06Z...WHILE CURRENTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WITH NO MID 20S UPSTREAM...WILL TREND MOST PRECIP TYPE TOWARD RAIN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED FLAKES POSSIBLE. THUS WILL USE A RAIN SNOW MIX TODAY. A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS TEMPS LOOKS TO WORK FINE...RESULTING MAINLY IN WARMER VALUES THAN MAVMOS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS TONIGHT AS RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RESUMES IT/S PRESENCE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WHILE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST THEN ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. ON TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RESUMES DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SE ONTARIO...PUMPING DRY AND COOL AIR TOWARD INDIANA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WITH CLOUDS ALOFT. MODELS THEN SUGGEST AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE ARRIVING BUY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED...NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSH NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN. WITH BEST DYNAMICS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY AND WILL FOCUS MAIN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING SITUATION AND MAVMOS RUNNING TOO COOL...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS TUESDAY AND LOW WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST TO TOWARD MICHIGAN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT..ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALOFT ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY FORECAST COLUMN WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY AND WILL TREND TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. AS THE STRONG WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP APPEAR IN PLAY...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS WARMER GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUDS. THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. GUESS SPRING IS HERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT SOME UPPER FORCING WILL LAG BEHIND IT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION GOING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT ALL LEVELS WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGE OVER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE...AND A MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SUNDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231500Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SITES LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ THINK KLAF WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KIND AND RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL TEMPO THESE IN AND USED HRRR FOR TIMING...ARRIVING IN KLAF AFTER 16Z AND FINALLY IN KBMG AROUND 20Z. THE SOUTHERN SITES MAY NOT SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR FOR NOW. AT KIND THOUGH EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH AND AT KLAF COULD SEE IFR WITH THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT /MAINLY ENE/ THROUGH THE DAY AND RUN AROUND 8-12 KTS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP/MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION GIVING US SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE LAFAYETTE...KOKOMO AND MUNCIE AREAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. FINALLY A STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN AND EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MISSOURI. DRY EASTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE TEENS. RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE PROVIDING DYNAMICS OVER WISCONSIN POISED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL SATURATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY...COLD AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE. VIRGA AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATED THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. THUS ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE EXPECT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH RAPID REFRESH PRECIP PROJECTIONS. GIVEN THE STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE A FACTOR. WITH MOST OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT IF TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ENOUGH MELTING SHOULD OCCUR FOR SOME RAIN. ESPECIALLY SINCE SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAVMOS TEMP AT LAF APPEAR TOO COLD...WITH HOURLYS SUGGESTING MID 20S AT 06Z...WHILE CURRENTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. WITH NO MID 20S UPSTREAM...WILL TREND MOST PRECIP TYPE TOWARD RAIN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED FLAKES POSSIBLE. THUS WILL USE A RAIN SNOW MIX TODAY. A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS TEMPS LOOKS TO WORK FINE...RESULTING MAINLY IN WARMER VALUES THAN MAVMOS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE DEPARTS TONIGHT AS RIDGING ONCE AGAIN RESUMES IT/S PRESENCE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WHILE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST THEN ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. ON TUESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RESUMES DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ALOFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SE ONTARIO...PUMPING DRY AND COOL AIR TOWARD INDIANA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING SITUATION...WITH CLOUDS ALOFT. MODELS THEN SUGGEST AN INITIAL WEAK WAVE ARRIVING BUY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MUCH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED...NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSH NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN. WITH BEST DYNAMICS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY AND WILL FOCUS MAIN PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING SITUATION AND MAVMOS RUNNING TOO COOL...WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MAVMOS TUESDAY AND LOW WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST TO TOWARD MICHIGAN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT..ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALOFT ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND PUSH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A DRY FORECAST COLUMN WILL TREND TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY AND WILL TREND TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS. AS THE STRONG WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP APPEAR IN PLAY...INCLUDING A PERIOD OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS WARMER GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP AND CLOUDS. THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THIS TIME SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. GUESS SPRING IS HERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT SOME UPPER FORCING WILL LAG BEHIND IT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION GOING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT ALL LEVELS WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT CHANGE OVER TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE...AND A MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SUNDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND BRING IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SITES LATER TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE HRRR/ THINK KLAF WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KIND AND RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WILL TEMPO THESE IN AND USED HRRR FOR TIMING...ARRIVING IN KLAF AFTER 16Z AND FINALLY IN KBMG AROUND 20Z. THE SOUTHERN SITES MAY NOT SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP THEM VFR FOR NOW. AT KIND THOUGH EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH AND AT KLAF COULD SEE IFR WITH THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT /MAINLY ENE/ THROUGH THE DAY AND RUN AROUND 8-12 KTS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA SHORT TERM...PUMA LONG TERM....CP AVIATION...CP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 OVERNIGHT FORECAST BECOMING COMPLICATED BY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND MUCH COOLER HIGHS THAN ANTICIPATED. WITH NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z. THIS SHOULD ACT TO CAP ANY COOLING OVER THE SOUTH AND ACTUALLY RESULT IN A EITHER STEADY OR A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS OVER THE REGION BY 12Z. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME PRIOR TO ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS/NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATION...THOUGH THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE EURO HAS BEEN SIMILAR IN THE PAST 2 MODEL SOLUTIONS IN DELAYING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH UNTIL 09-12Z. AFTER LOOKING AT THE HRRR AND SEEING THAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS ARE CONTINUING WITH AN EARLIER ONSET...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS. BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE ONSET FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ALSO HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH LIKELY TO SEE ANY ISO THUNDER THROUGH 12Z. THOUGH MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID...THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION COMMENCES. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO TODAYS LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTATION THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT HAVE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MAINLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS A DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. INITIAL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE OTHER LOW TO SWING THROUGH IOWA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE MAJORITY OF THE CHANGES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT ALOFT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA...WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. STILL EXPECTING A MAIN AREA OF WAA PRECIP TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING THROUGH...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN WITH MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION AREAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MIXING OF RAIN/SNOW OR COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH QPF AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. SECOND LOBE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA. MAY HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US. THEREFORE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES OR ABOVE BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...23/18Z ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE STRATUS FIELD AND CIGS THROUGH 06Z ALONG WITH EVENTUAL PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD 12Z. NORTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR COOLER TEMPS AND STRATUS TO HOLD ONTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW...OVERNIGHT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME DRY AIR ALOFT PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET. OVER THE SOUTHEAST THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR -FRZA BASED ON COOLING TONIGHT WITH IS0 TO SCT THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE AFT 13Z AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AT MID LEVELS. HAVE ADDED 3 HOUR PERIOD OF -FZRA TO KOTM PRIOR TO POTENTIAL THUNDER. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NORTH CIGS TO REMAIN LOW AND PRECIP DELAYED TOWARD END OF PERIOD. /REV && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 The latest NAM and RAP forecast soundings are less bullish with the mid level moisture than earlier progs, and this may be the reason why elevated storms have failed to form along the boundary. The 00Z RAOB from TOP and OAX show there is still quite a bit of moistening to take place and there is an AC deck behind the front. However there has not been much development in these clouds and with no real large scale forcing to lift parcels, think convergence along the boundary from the low level jet is the only mechanism to get storms to go. This convergence has not been strong enough to this point for storms that developed earlier to maintain an updraft. With model progs veering the low level jet to the southwest and west, this convergence should weaken. With all of this in mind, have paired back the slight chance pops to the northeast corner of the forecast area. Any storm is likely to be high based and may not even produce measurable precip with the MUCAPE being very limited if there is any at all. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 A weak shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will track over the upper Midwest this evening and overnight. This will drag a cold front through the area, which is currently located in NW KS and central NE. Ahead of the front low level moisture advection has worked into central KS this morning as evident by the cumulus field that has developed. This will inhibit how low the dew points mix out in that region, while further east the dew points mix out much lower into the 30s. There is decent agreement on the timing of the front, which should enter north central KS around sunset. As the front moves southeastward into the slightly better moisture an isolated shower may develop along the front. There will be a decent amount of dry air closer to the surface which may make it difficult for precipitation to accumulate much over a few hundredths. With this increased moisture the elevated cape overnight should range from 300-500 j/kg, therefore can not rule out the possibility of some thunder. If the showers can develop it will be brief as the front continues to progress eastward, and dry air moves behind the front in the 900-850 MB layer. The highest chance are across far northeast and east central KS. This front is forecast to stall out in far southern KS tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 40s in southeast KS to the upper 30s in north central KS. Cooler air moving in behind the front places highs tomorrow in the 60s. During the day tomorrow a shortwave will track over the central Rockies and eventually the central plains overnight. Increased southerly flow ahead of the wave lifts the front back to the north. Also, an increasing low level jet advects higher moisture from the south into southern KS. This higher moisture should help to erode the cap along and north of the warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage in the late afternoon and early evening. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 Monday Night - Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the evening and overspread the area through the night. This will be in response to a strong low level jet bringing quick moisture advection, warm air advection, and enhanced isentropic ascent underneath a plume of fairly steep mid level lapse rates. A broad area of mid/upper level forcing will also overspread the area during the evening and overnight hours. The moisture influx into the region will be nearly continuous, as will storm development, but the focus area for development will gradually shift to the north and east and should exit the forecast area near or shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. MUCAPE is likely to exceed 1000 J/kg at times with strong mid/upper flow supportive of some elevated supercell structures and large hail associated with a few of these storms. Pockets of heavy rainfall will also be possible with the continued storm development through the night. Tuesday - The weather scenario on Tuesday remains complex but at least most model guidance is beginning to resolve low level features that fit the conceptual model of this type of strong negatively tilted short wave trough. The upper short wave is still forecast to deepen sharply during the day on Tuesday as the heart of the trough tracks from SW Colorado into far southeast NE. A strong mid level jet max will track along the southern periphery of the trough, and expect surface low pressure to translate from SW Kansas into NW Missouri. The NAM is a notable outlier in the track of the surface low and tracks it south of the forecast area (although still pulling south winds and higher dewpoints well north into the forecast area with another weak sfc low a bit farther northwest. Moisture return will be efficient on Monday night into Tuesday ahead of this system, but the moisture source will be modified continental air so looking at max dewpoints only in the mid to perhaps upper 50s in the warm sector. Expect to see at least some partial clearing and warming in the warm sector in SBCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg. Deep layer wind shear will be very strong, and if storms develop they should quickly obtain supercell structure as they move quickly to the east. Given the strong dynamics with this storm system, it would now make sense for storms to develop a bit earlier in the afternoon along the dry line and under the rapid mid level cooling associated with the upper trough. Feel that the ECMWF (which is quite similar to the GFS and GEM) rendition of thunderstorm initiation occurring in the local forecast area with some strengthening and organization possible as they cross eastern KS near/south of the surface low track. So, will re-introduce the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms for a few hours during the early/mid afternoon on Tuesday with hail and damaging winds the main hazards in the local forecast area. Aside from the warm sector, elevated instability remains in place north of the surface low track as well, and will likely support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as the system moves through. With the very strong trough aloft, there may be some chance for a bit of hail even north of the low. It now appears that the driest air behind the system may remain just south and west of the area, so while it will be windy late Tuesday the RH may remain above critical levels locally and likely rainfall on Monday night could limit the fire danger. Tuesday night - Saturday - This system moves quickly northeast and out of the area and expect dry conditions after sunset on Tuesday. Wednesday will still be fairly warm but another strong upper trough will dive across the Plains from the northwest with a much cooler airmass moving in with it. Depending on airmass moisture in place in advance of this system, there could be scattered showers with the front passage late Wednesday. Temperatures then become much cooler and there appears to be some strong potential for a freeze...and perhaps a hard freeze...Friday morning and Saturday morning. Currently have lows in the upper 20s but if skies are clear on Saturday morning and the surface high is perfectly timed, could end up in the low to middle 20s. The recent warm temperatures may increase the impacts of a hard freeze but will have to look deeper into this and how far along the growing season is at this time. Warmer temperatures are then in store again for next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 VFR conditions should prevail through the day Monday. Convection along the boundary continues to look unlikely as the low level jet veers to the southwest. Otherwise, return flow and overrunning of the boundary Monday evening should lead to widespread showers with some thunderstorms. Have initially included some CIGS between 2 and 3 KFT, but they may eventually end up lower as the MOS data is suggesting some 1 to 2 KFT CIGS by 06Z Tues. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
852 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAINTAINING SOME LIGHTNING BUT WEAKENING OVERALL. RUC SFC-750MB STARTING LVLS FOR COMPUTED LI SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM SEMO INTO SRN IL AND SW IN...LOWEST CHANCE ACROSS WEST KY OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST NORTH OF KPOF TO BETWEEN KPAH/KCEY TO NEAR KHOP. TEMPS STILL MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RESPITE FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID AFTERNOON ON AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW/FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACH OUR REGION. THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...THE APPROACH OF A SHARP UPSTREAM H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. WITH 1.5-2 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS DIPPING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO COVER ANY TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION THAT MAY ALREADY BE BUDDING DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE...WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY AND RATHER MOIST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHARPENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. THESE CHILLY HIGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 5. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE MINUS 10 ISOTHERM AT 850 MB WILL PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS NOW RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL-SCALE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS SE MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COATING OF WET SNOW APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING VERIFIES. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS IF THE FRONTAL TIMING IS FAST ENOUGH. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME RATHER ISOLATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL PASS THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN RAIN...THOUGH THE REDUCTIONS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES BY TO THE NW...WINDS WILL VEER IN DIRECTION...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT. FEWER CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE DAY WED AS A GENERALLY SRLY LIGHT WIND CONTINUES. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088. MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
924 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 ...Forecast Update... Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening. Have upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across portions of southern IN and northern KY. This should quickly push east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before the convection currently over MO arrives. The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across portions of Illinois and northern IN. The latest SPC mesoanalysis data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past hour. With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern IN/northern KY. Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern IN and extreme northern KY. Further south, have trimmed back pops as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability will be waning. In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry tonight into Wednesday morning. Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing trends. Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool airmass in place over the Ohio Valley. There has recently been a report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast MO. The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening, so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN and central KY. However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly ejecting out of the Central Plains. Therefore, have introduced thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY. Cannot completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest. Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn. However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of instability will be passing to the north as well. Will continue to keep up with trends this evening as things unfold. .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64 corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky. Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning. Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening, and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates more of a mixy boundary layer. Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon. Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding is possible under the heavier pockets of rain. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming weekend. The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer, moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into the 40s by afternoon for much of the area. Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet. There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night, so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look reasonable. Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead, soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds. 850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing temperatures expected. Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 706 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. A band of precipitation continues to push into portions of southern IN and northern KY, which will likely affect KSDF and KLEX this evening. May briefly see vsbys drop to high-end MVFR in this activity, but cigs should remain VFR. Otherwise, this precipitation will lift northeast later on this evening, but another line of showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder will push in overnight into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation should remain to the north of KSDF and KLEX, but there may be just enough coverage to include VCSH wording. High-end MVFR cigs are briefly possible Wednesday morning behind this activity, before daytime mixing quickly raises bases to VFR. Otherwise, after the morning precip chance at KSDF and KLEX, the bulk of the day looks dry before more showers/storms move in Wednesday night. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD Short Term.....RAS Long Term......ZT Aviation.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
112 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 942 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 DID A MINOR UPDATE TO TWEAK THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALIGNED TEMPS/DEW POINTS WITH MOST RECENT OBS. KEEPING ON EYE ON SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. ON RADAR...LIGHT RETURNS KEEP TRYING TO SNEAK ACROSS OUR BORDER WITH TENNESSEE...BUT SO FAR THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY OBS OR REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND IN KENTUCKY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEPING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS...BUT ONLY RECENTLY HAVE THE CLOUDS GOTTEN OPAQUE ENOUGH TO BLOCK THE SUN. WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE MID 50S TO THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS BASICALLY HELD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY SO THAT THEY STILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE SOME ENERGY SLIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH DEPARTS...EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY SCRAPING BY MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE HELPING TO KEEP THE LID ON THE WORST OF THE COOLING OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS ON OUR FRINGES. LATER THAT NIGHT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHERNMOST PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A DEVELOPING...BUT MOSTLY DRY...WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE MINOR POINT AND TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY OUT RUNS ALL OF ITS SFC FEATURES. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIAL...DEEPER TROUGH WILL REENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY LEFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH THAT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AS ITS INDUCED SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES UP THE MID MISSISSIPPI... LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC FRONT TO REORGANIZE AND BEGIN ITS PUSH EASTWARD AGAIN. SFC BASED INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE ENDS GENERALLY REMAIN THE SAME WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE GFS DOES APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE AND WELL DEFINED WITH ALL THE SFC FEATURES THAN THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION...MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT SLOWER OVERALL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PHASE OF THE EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...OUR PATTERN TURNS MUCH COLDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIT WITH THE FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IF FREEZING LEVELS DROP LOW ENOUGH WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR COMING IN...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF H850 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING IF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 112 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS PAST TO THE SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THESE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...ABE/RAY AVIATION...ABE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
926 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /14/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ AVIATION... FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO ADVECT NWRD OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO OVERTAKE MOST TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS. SFC WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FOR THIS EVENING FROM 5-10 KTS...GENERALLY STAYING IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO TXK BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAF FOR NOW AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR NEAR MIDDAY. /19/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/NW AR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A BVO...SPS...ABI LINE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF 40-50KTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR NEAR 8 DEG/KM. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BETWEEN 20-22Z ACROSS SW MO...SE KS...NE OK...WITH THE CONVECTION BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE OK. MCCURTAIN COUNTY MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING. SWOMCD IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR OUR EXTREME NW ZONES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A FEW OF OUR NW COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS A LARGER REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT AGAIN...OUR REGION WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT/THU TIME PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE TONIGHT`S CONVECTION...WE QUICKLY STABILIZE WED EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NW ZONES INITIALLY BUT AGREE WITH SPC`S DAYTWO OUTLOOK KEEPING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING. FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION QUICKLY ON THURSDAY TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. AMOUNTS LOOKING GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH THE EVENT...THUS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH IF ANY IMPLICATIONS ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WHICH REMAIN HIGH ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WED/THU...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCING FOR OUR REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD CLOSELY. THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 82 57 63 / 10 10 50 40 MLU 54 80 59 64 / 10 10 20 50 DEQ 56 79 49 62 / 40 20 70 30 TXK 59 80 53 62 / 20 20 60 30 ELD 56 78 57 63 / 20 10 50 50 TYR 60 81 53 62 / 10 10 60 30 GGG 59 82 55 63 / 10 10 60 30 LFK 59 84 58 66 / 10 10 30 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO ADVECT NWRD OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO OVERTAKE MOST TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS. SFC WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT FOR THIS EVENING FROM 5-10 KTS...GENERALLY STAYING IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO TXK BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAF FOR NOW AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR NEAR MIDDAY. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/ DISCUSSION... DESPITE THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK/NW AR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A BVO...SPS...ABI LINE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION LATER THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF 40-50KTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT OR NEAR 8 DEG/KM. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BETWEEN 20-22Z ACROSS SW MO...SE KS...NE OK...WITH THE CONVECTION BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE OK. MCCURTAIN COUNTY MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING. SWOMCD IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR OUR EXTREME NW ZONES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A FEW OF OUR NW COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS A LARGER REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT AGAIN...OUR REGION WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WED NIGHT/THU TIME PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE TONIGHT`S CONVECTION...WE QUICKLY STABILIZE WED EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NW ZONES INITIALLY BUT AGREE WITH SPC`S DAYTWO OUTLOOK KEEPING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING. FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION QUICKLY ON THURSDAY TAKING THE RAIN WITH IT. AMOUNTS LOOKING GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH THE EVENT...THUS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH IF ANY IMPLICATIONS ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WHICH REMAIN HIGH ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WED/THU...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCING FOR OUR REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD CLOSELY. THE RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 82 57 63 / 10 10 50 40 MLU 54 80 59 64 / 10 10 20 50 DEQ 56 79 49 62 / 40 20 70 30 TXK 59 80 53 62 / 20 20 60 30 ELD 56 78 57 63 / 20 10 50 50 TYR 60 81 53 62 / 10 10 60 30 GGG 59 82 55 63 / 10 10 60 30 LFK 59 84 58 66 / 10 10 30 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LEAD ENERGY RESULTED IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS ALLOWED SFC HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. DRY AIR MASS/SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...SSE WINDS OFF LAKE MI HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE 30S) OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN PLAINS. 12Z MODELS STILL INDICATE LEAD ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS NE/KS THIS AFTN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO 2 SFC LOW CENTERS AT 12Z WED...ONE OVER NW MN AND THE SECOND IN THE VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI. FOR THE FCST AREA...THIS SHOULD GENERALLY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD PASS BY TO THE SE OF HERE...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS SNOW AS IT ARRIVES FROM THE S AND SW LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES (PARTICULARLY THE NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY SFC LOW THAN REST OF MODELS) TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF -FZRA CLOSE TO LAKE MI AND FAR ERN PORTION OF CWA AS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MOSTLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT POPS/QPF TONIGHT INTO WED. RESULT IS PCPN SPREADING N AND NE INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. IT`S POSSIBLE THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE OVER THE FAR N AND E FCST AREA UNTIL 12Z WED OR AFTER. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH NORTH TO 0.25 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY 12Z. AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIFT INTO ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS PARTICUALRLY THE NAM AND REG-GEM SHOW A SECONDARY MAX OF PCPN OVER NW MQT COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING IN RESPONSE TO REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FGEN/DEFORMATION SO HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM .30 INCH OR MORE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH .25 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THIS LINE. VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND HEALTHY ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON 290K SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT PCPN RATES DURING PEAK FORCING WHICH REACHES THE WI BORDER IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL AROUND 750MB...SHORT DURATION OF STRONG FORCING (3-6 HRS) AND LOWER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1 MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING ADVY LEVEL. QPF AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH SLR OF 10:1 RESULTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA STAYING BTWN 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WILL JUST CONTINUE THE SPS AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MQT-BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SPS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FM WEST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST ALLOWIN FOR DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER THE NW CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY 12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR (ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY (25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT). AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH. FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCICATED WITH A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRES LIFTING NE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20 KT TONIGHT INTO WED AS LOW PRES TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE LAKE BTWN ONE LOW PRES CENTER MOVING E TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE OTHER LIFTING NE THRU LWR MI INTO ONTARIO. THE TROF WILL DROP S OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRES DROPS SE FM MANITOBA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TO 25 KT WL SHIFT W-NW SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND TROF PASSAGE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1245 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ONE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS IA/SRN MN WITH A SECOND MORE WELL-DEFINED WAVE TO THE NW IN SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH THE NRN WAVE IS MORE DEFINED...THE SRN WAVE IS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND MUCH STRONGER FGEN. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SRN WAVE. WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT/CALM ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNEST. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN SRN MANITOBA IS WELL-DEFINED NOW AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SNOW...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS WAVE WEAKENING AND SHEARING SE IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN DEPARTING TROF IN SE CANADA/NE CONUS AND BUILDING RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. SO...WHILE CURRENT LOOK OF THE WAVE BRINGS SOME CONCERN THAT -SN/FLURRIES COULD STILL REACH THE FAR WRN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PCPN DISSIPATING. THE DRY FCST IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS OVER THE AREA PER OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KGRB. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME SINCE THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTABLE DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE AREA TODAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...THOUGH THIS COOLING WILL BE MORE LIMITED NEAR THE WRN SHORE OF UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30F TO AROUND 40F. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AND IT WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE FAR W WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID WARMING. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. THE COLDEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS MINS BLO ZERO TONIGHT AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THAT SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MODERATION OF AIR MASS. IF ANY LOCATIONS DO FALL SUBZERO...IT WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. OTHERWISE...MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S W. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10F WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE WAA S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 0 TO -3C BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH OVER FAR SE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO EXIT THE PICTURE. THE TRADITIONAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A FEW 50F READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUR EYES WILL BE ON THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THE S LOW SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL KS TO W IA/MO BY THE END OF THE DAY. TAKING A LOOK AT 500MB THE S SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM SYSTEMS RECENTLY...THIS ONE HAS SOME GOOD MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STREAMING N FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS WI/W LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...PUSHING MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. DRY SOUNDINGS BELOW 800MB INDICATE THAT IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR THE NEAR-SFC LAYER TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS...WITH THE MOST E TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...KEEPS ENOUGH COLD ENOUGH AIR OVERHEAD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER AND OUT E /ONLY A BIT OF FZRN AROUND MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. THE QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.1-0.2 IN LESS ON THE LATEST RUN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO GO HIGH ON THE FZRN POTENTIAL. WHILE THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS A BIT COLDER/THE 00Z RUN HAS THE SFC LOW JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND TO THE W. HOWEVER...THE QPF HAS BEEN VERY JUMPY...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES. WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE NAM OR GFS SOLUTIONS. THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER E KS/W MO...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON THE SLOW SIDE COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE HWO...WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE S SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E UPPER MI/N LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW THAT WAS IN THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE ACROSS N MN. SO EVEN THOUGH THE INITIAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E ONTARIO AND INTO S QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING..LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY LOW SHIFTS IN. THE DGZ FINALLY FALLS WELL INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS SECONDARY LOW SINKS ACROSS N LOWER MI THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WILL BE -16C OR COLDER OVER THE W HALF...WINDS LOOK TO BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT...ANYWHERE OUT OF THE NW TO N TO NE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LES BANDS. STILL...LES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-5IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LONGER PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAVORABLE N WIND SNOWBELTS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EDGES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SSE. GIVEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND ASSUMING NO LINGERING LES...SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PRETTY CHILLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR UPPER MI. DID ADJUST VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERALL MODEL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF DEEPENS AN OFFSHOOT OF THE MAIN LOW OVER ONTARIO AVERAGING 985MB. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PIN POINT THE E HALF OF UPPER MI TO GET 0.25IN OR MORE OF LIQUID LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C A HEAVY WET SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE HWO QUITE YET...AS SEVERAL CHANGES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING S THRU ONTARIO WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRES JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFTN. WITH PRES GRADIENT REMAINING WEAK...WINDS WILL BE BLO 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE WILL TRACK NE...CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI WED AFTN. WINDS SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU... AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...07 MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
716 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ONE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS IA/SRN MN WITH A SECOND MORE WELL-DEFINED WAVE TO THE NW IN SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH THE NRN WAVE IS MORE DEFINED...THE SRN WAVE IS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND MUCH STRONGER FGEN. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SRN WAVE. WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT/CALM ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNEST. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN SRN MANITOBA IS WELL-DEFINED NOW AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SNOW...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS WAVE WEAKENING AND SHEARING SE IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN DEPARTING TROF IN SE CANADA/NE CONUS AND BUILDING RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. SO...WHILE CURRENT LOOK OF THE WAVE BRINGS SOME CONCERN THAT -SN/FLURRIES COULD STILL REACH THE FAR WRN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PCPN DISSIPATING. THE DRY FCST IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS OVER THE AREA PER OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KGRB. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME SINCE THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTABLE DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE AREA TODAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...THOUGH THIS COOLING WILL BE MORE LIMITED NEAR THE WRN SHORE OF UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30F TO AROUND 40F. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AND IT WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE FAR W WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID WARMING. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. THE COLDEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS MINS BLO ZERO TONIGHT AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THAT SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MODERATION OF AIR MASS. IF ANY LOCATIONS DO FALL SUBZERO...IT WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. OTHERWISE...MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S W. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10F WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE WAA S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 0 TO -3C BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH OVER FAR SE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO EXIT THE PICTURE. THE TRADITIONAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A FEW 50F READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUR EYES WILL BE ON THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THE S LOW SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL KS TO W IA/MO BY THE END OF THE DAY. TAKING A LOOK AT 500MB THE S SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM SYSTEMS RECENTLY...THIS ONE HAS SOME GOOD MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STREAMING N FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS WI/W LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...PUSHING MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. DRY SOUNDINGS BELOW 800MB INDICATE THAT IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR THE NEAR-SFC LAYER TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS...WITH THE MOST E TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...KEEPS ENOUGH COLD ENOUGH AIR OVERHEAD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER AND OUT E /ONLY A BIT OF FZRN AROUND MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. THE QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.1-0.2 IN LESS ON THE LATEST RUN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO GO HIGH ON THE FZRN POTENTIAL. WHILE THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS A BIT COLDER/THE 00Z RUN HAS THE SFC LOW JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND TO THE W. HOWEVER...THE QPF HAS BEEN VERY JUMPY...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES. WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE NAM OR GFS SOLUTIONS. THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER E KS/W MO...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON THE SLOW SIDE COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE HWO...WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE S SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E UPPER MI/N LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW THAT WAS IN THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE ACROSS N MN. SO EVEN THOUGH THE INITIAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E ONTARIO AND INTO S QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING..LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY LOW SHIFTS IN. THE DGZ FINALLY FALLS WELL INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS SECONDARY LOW SINKS ACROSS N LOWER MI THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WILL BE -16C OR COLDER OVER THE W HALF...WINDS LOOK TO BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT...ANYWHERE OUT OF THE NW TO N TO NE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LES BANDS. STILL...LES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-5IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LONGER PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAVORABLE N WIND SNOWBELTS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EDGES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SSE. GIVEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND ASSUMING NO LINGERING LES...SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PRETTY CHILLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR UPPER MI. DID ADJUST VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERALL MODEL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF DEEPENS AN OFFSHOOT OF THE MAIN LOW OVER ONTARIO AVERAGING 985MB. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PIN POINT THE E HALF OF UPPER MI TO GET 0.25IN OR MORE OF LIQUID LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C A HEAVY WET SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE HWO QUITE YET...AS SEVERAL CHANGES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING S THRU ONTARIO WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRES JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFTN. WITH PRES GRADIENT REMAINING WEAK...WINDS WILL BE BLO 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE WILL TRACK NE...CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI WED AFTN. WINDS SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU... AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ONE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS IA/SRN MN WITH A SECOND MORE WELL-DEFINED WAVE TO THE NW IN SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH THE NRN WAVE IS MORE DEFINED...THE SRN WAVE IS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND MUCH STRONGER FGEN. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE SRN WAVE. WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT/CALM ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE E WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNEST. ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN SRN MANITOBA IS WELL-DEFINED NOW AND HAS AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SNOW...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS WAVE WEAKENING AND SHEARING SE IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN DEPARTING TROF IN SE CANADA/NE CONUS AND BUILDING RIDGE MOVING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. SO...WHILE CURRENT LOOK OF THE WAVE BRINGS SOME CONCERN THAT -SN/FLURRIES COULD STILL REACH THE FAR WRN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST SINCE MODELS ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PCPN DISSIPATING. THE DRY FCST IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE VERY DRY ANTECEDANT AIR MASS OVER THE AREA PER OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KINL/KGRB. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME SINCE THE WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOTABLE DRYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES. WITH HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE AREA TODAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAKE ON A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...THOUGH THIS COOLING WILL BE MORE LIMITED NEAR THE WRN SHORE OF UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30F TO AROUND 40F. IT WILL BE COOLEST OVER THE E...NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AND IT WILL BE WARMEST OVER THE FAR W WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID WARMING. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. THE COLDEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS MINS BLO ZERO TONIGHT AT SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THAT SEEMS TOO LOW GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MODERATION OF AIR MASS. IF ANY LOCATIONS DO FALL SUBZERO...IT WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA CLOSER TO DEPARTING HIGH PRES. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND E. OTHERWISE...MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S W. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10F WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE WAA S WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 0 TO -3C BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH OVER FAR SE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO EXIT THE PICTURE. THE TRADITIONAL DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A FEW 50F READINGS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUR EYES WILL BE ON THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THE S LOW SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL KS TO W IA/MO BY THE END OF THE DAY. TAKING A LOOK AT 500MB THE S SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. UNLIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM SYSTEMS RECENTLY...THIS ONE HAS SOME GOOD MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...STREAMING N FROM THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS WI/W LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...PUSHING MIXED PRECIP ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. DRY SOUNDINGS BELOW 800MB INDICATE THAT IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR THE NEAR-SFC LAYER TO MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS...WITH THE MOST E TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...KEEPS ENOUGH COLD ENOUGH AIR OVERHEAD TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYING AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER AND OUT E /ONLY A BIT OF FZRN AROUND MNM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. THE QPF IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.1-0.2 IN LESS ON THE LATEST RUN. THE NAM CONTINUES TO GO HIGH ON THE FZRN POTENTIAL. WHILE THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS A BIT COLDER/THE 00Z RUN HAS THE SFC LOW JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND TO THE W. HOWEVER...THE QPF HAS BEEN VERY JUMPY...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES. WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY WITH THE NAM OR GFS SOLUTIONS. THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER E KS/W MO...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF ON THE SLOW SIDE COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE HWO...WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE S SFC LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E UPPER MI/N LOWER MI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW THAT WAS IN THE DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE ACROSS N MN. SO EVEN THOUGH THE INITIAL LOW SHIFTS ACROSS E ONTARIO AND INTO S QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING..LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SECONDARY LOW SHIFTS IN. THE DGZ FINALLY FALLS WELL INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS SECONDARY LOW SINKS ACROSS N LOWER MI THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WILL BE -16C OR COLDER OVER THE W HALF...WINDS LOOK TO BE SHIFTING QUITE A BIT...ANYWHERE OUT OF THE NW TO N TO NE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LES BANDS. STILL...LES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-5IN OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LONGER PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FAVORABLE N WIND SNOWBELTS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN THE LARGE SFC HIGH SET UP FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EDGES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MI INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE SSE. GIVEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND ASSUMING NO LINGERING LES...SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE PRETTY CHILLY IN THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF INTERIOR UPPER MI. DID ADJUST VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERALL MODEL BLEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY WILL SWING A TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF DEEPENS AN OFFSHOOT OF THE MAIN LOW OVER ONTARIO AVERAGING 985MB. AT THIS POINT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PIN POINT THE E HALF OF UPPER MI TO GET 0.25IN OR MORE OF LIQUID LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -5C A HEAVY WET SNOW IS MOST LIKELY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE HWO QUITE YET...AS SEVERAL CHANGES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL STREAM HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE THICKEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 510 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 HIGH PRES JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST...REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY TUE MORNING AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AFTN. WITH PRES GRADIENT REMAINING WEAK...WINDS WILL BE BLO 20KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE WILL TRACK NE...CROSSING FAR NRN LWR MI WED AFTN. WINDS SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU... AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE...LATEST MODELS INDICATE CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION TODAY MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WITH POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EAST/SE MS MAY HANG ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DRIZZLE IS DONE...BUT HRRR SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES UNDERNEATH THE MOST DOGGED CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. CONSIDERING THE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WAS LOWERED BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN MOST CASES. /BB/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/ DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... A WEAK TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED -DZ/RA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP STILL BEING REPORTED AT JAN/HKS...BUT GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE... AND EXPECT DRIZZLE TO END BY MID MORNING OVER ERN MS. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN MS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AT MOST PLACES AS WE GO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION/EVAPORATION TAKE PLACE TODAY... CLEARING COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONSIDERABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EXCEED CROSS-OVER TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY AFTERNOON IN A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING MORE STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT. /EC/ LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WAS AGREED UPON BY THE CANADIAN...EURO/PARALLEL EURO...AND GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. FOR THURSDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL END BY FRIDAY. OUR COOL PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS IN THE 40S. THE SHOWERS WILL END BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE EVEN COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 50S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE IN A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG UPPER TROUGH. THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE LOWER END OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS AROUND THE UPPER 20S TO FREEZING. RESIDENTS ARE URGE TO KEEP UPDATED ON THE POTENTIAL COLDER TEMPS IN REGARDS TO TENDER VEGETATION. THE CIPS MODELS JUST TO GIVEN AN IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL...SLU CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE CENTERED ON SATURDAY INDICATES 60-70% EXCEEDANCE OF THE <32F FOR 5 HR THRESHOLD OVER EAST CENTRAL MS...AND > 50% EXCEEDANCE OF THE <32F FOR 1 HR THRESHOLD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW THIS FAR OUT WILL NOT MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR LATER FORECAST PACKAGES./17/ && .AVIATION...SKIES HAVE BEGUN CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING...KGLH...KGWO...AND KGTR...WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILING AT THOSE SITES. SKIES WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR AT REMAINING TAF LOCALES...THUS RESULTING IN MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES UNTIL CLEARING OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BOUT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 67 50 76 55 / 11 0 0 4 MERIDIAN 67 48 74 52 / 14 0 0 4 VICKSBURG 69 49 76 54 / 5 0 0 4 HATTIESBURG 68 51 76 57 / 14 0 0 7 NATCHEZ 67 51 75 55 / 8 0 0 5 GREENVILLE 70 49 73 55 / 2 0 0 4 GREENWOOD 72 50 75 56 / 3 0 0 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ BB/19/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 Convection continues to weaken across the eastern Ozarks as activity runs east of the instability axis. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has already been cancelled for most of the area will be canceled for the remainder of south central Missouri once convection ends. There will be brief break in the weather tonight before more active weather returns Wednesday. Near term forecast has been updated to reflect precipitation and sky cover trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern. Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming, mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this afternoon and early this evening. ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3 km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero), again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough. The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more limited instability. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A second shortwave, more positively tilted, will make it`s way through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected. Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa. Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still ironing out the details. Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend develops late in the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 8 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 Pilots can expect VFR conditions the remainder of tonight with more active weather returning Wednesday. Surface winds will become light and variable overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon bringing areas of MVFR conditions. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-094>098-102>106. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Foster SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
858 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ONLY UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO TAPER DOWN CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE GOING TO BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE APPROACH OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE WEST. SINGER && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE... A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SHOWER CHANCES IS IN STORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MOISTURE FOR MOST AREAS COMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA MOUNTAINS WILL GET SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. FIRST OF ALL...WE HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING IN THE EKALAKA AND BAKER AREAS...WHERE VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO 1/4SM AS OF 09 UTC. HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE FOG SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15 UTC. TODAY...A MILD DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S F OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500-MB TROUGH. THE SPEED AT WHICH CLOUDS THICKEN COULD PRODUCE SOME ERROR IN FORECAST HIGHS THOUGH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AND LEAD TO INCREASING QG-FORCING ALOFT. WE RELIED ON THE 00 UTC MODELS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY HIGH-RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR TO HOLD OFF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITHIN THE FORECAST FOR BILLINGS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT UNTIL 21 UTC /3 PM MDT/. SPEAKING OF SOUTHEASTERN MT...POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE ARE CONDITIONAL ON WEAK INSTABILITY FORMING AND CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEEPENING ENOUGH TO YIELD PRECIPITATION. THAT/S FAR FROM CLEAR...THOUGH THE FAVORED NON-NAM SET OF 00 UTC GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS DOES SUPPORT SOME 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THERE /AND BACK FURTHER WEST AROUND LIVINGSTON/ DUE TO A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 C/KM...SO WE DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WITH THE SHOWERS IN BOTH OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE LEFT THEM IN SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR THE EARLY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONS. TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG...BUT QUICK-MOVING BATCH OF FORCING WILL CROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY YIELD AN EASTWARD-MOVING ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /LIKELY-RANGE/ POPS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE THAT FORCING WITH THE 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO INTERCEPT A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCHES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN MT OVERNIGHT. THE DODGE CITY...KS OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM 00 UTC MARCH 23RD DID SAMPLE A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.42 INCHES...WHICH SUGGESTS THE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO. MOISTURE TOTALS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SOME QUARTER INCH RAIN TOTALS WILL THUS ALSO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. MEANWHILE...TIME-LAGGED AND ONE-RUN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BACK TO THE WEST IN BILLINGS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CITY WILL LIKELY GET 0.05 INCHES OR LESS OF MOISTURE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME BEHIND TONIGHT/S WAVE PASSAGE. NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GEM AND ECMWF ACTUALLY SUGGEST MORE BONAFIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW IN BAKER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY PLACE A GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. WE DO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT WILL END UP PLAYING OUT IS LOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION IS ONE THAT CAN YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS LIKE AT RED LODGE...AND IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIMULATION OF THIS SCENARIO THEN WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH A LATER FORECAST RELEASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... COOLER AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DIURNAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS...BUT W/OUT MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING. A SURGE OF MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BACKDOORING COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IN OUR CWA...THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN WHERE THEY PAINT HIGHEST QPF. IF SFC TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WET SNOWFALL IN A COMBINATION OF OUR N-NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS AND ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. HAVE RAISED POPS IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST. OF COURSE THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE BIGHORN MTNS FOR SNOWFALL THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING US RAPID DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS HEIGHTS SURGE INTO THE 570S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK NEAR 70F IN OUR WEST BUT PROXIMITY TO SLOWER DEPARTING SFC HIGH IN THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP OUR EAST COOLER...ESPECIALLY AFTER A COLD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN OUR EAST DOWN SOME PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IT APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY/WINDY AND VERY WARM SATURDAY. GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE PREFRONTAL FLOW HAVE RAISED EXPECTED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S. MODEST COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM... WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MARCH WILL END ON A WARM NOTE WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. JKL && .AVIATION... EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS START FILLING IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION EXISTS MAINLY NEAR KLVM BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL FILL IN NEAR KBIL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND KMLS AND KBHK BY THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIP ACTIVITY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SINGER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064 039/055 031/048 034/051 032/070 046/077 042/061 2/W 54/W 43/W 32/W 10/B 01/N 22/W LVM 058 031/048 028/048 034/055 035/070 047/072 041/061 6/T 55/W 53/W 22/W 10/N 01/N 22/W HDN 068 037/058 029/048 032/051 028/070 039/079 038/063 2/W 53/W 33/W 32/W 10/B 01/N 22/W MLS 068 039/055 027/045 026/048 026/066 039/076 036/060 2/T 62/W 12/W 22/W 10/B 01/N 21/B 4BQ 070 037/056 027/045 026/047 026/064 038/078 037/060 3/T 63/W 12/W 23/W 10/B 01/N 21/B BHK 064 036/051 024/039 020/041 021/058 035/074 033/055 1/B 74/W 12/J 22/J 10/B 01/N 21/B SHR 066 035/053 027/045 028/048 026/065 038/078 039/060 2/W 54/W 44/W 43/W 20/B 00/B 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
347 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE... A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SHOWER CHANCES IS IN STORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MOISTURE FOR MOST AREAS COMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA MOUNTAINS WILL GET SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS PATTERN AS WELL. FIRST OF ALL...WE HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING IN THE EKALAKA AND BAKER AREAS...WHERE VISIBILITY IS DOWN TO 1/4SM AS OF 09 UTC. HRRR SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE FOG SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15 UTC. TODAY...A MILD DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S F OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500-MB TROUGH. THE SPEED AT WHICH CLOUDS THICKEN COULD PRODUCE SOME ERROR IN FORECAST HIGHS THOUGH. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AND LEAD TO INCREASING QG-FORCING ALOFT. WE RELIED ON THE 00 UTC MODELS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY HIGH-RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE LIKE THE RAP AND HRRR TO HOLD OFF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITHIN THE FORECAST FOR BILLINGS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT UNTIL 21 UTC /3 PM MDT/. SPEAKING OF SOUTHEASTERN MT...POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE ARE CONDITIONAL ON WEAK INSTABILITY FORMING AND CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEEPENING ENOUGH TO YIELD PRECIPITATION. THAT/S FAR FROM CLEAR...THOUGH THE FAVORED NON-NAM SET OF 00 UTC GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS DOES SUPPORT SOME 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE THERE /AND BACK FURTHER WEST AROUND LIVINGSTON/ DUE TO A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 C/KM...SO WE DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WITH THE SHOWERS IN BOTH OF THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE LEFT THEM IN SOUTHEASTERN MT FOR THE EARLY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONS. TONIGHT...A RATHER STRONG...BUT QUICK-MOVING BATCH OF FORCING WILL CROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY YIELD AN EASTWARD-MOVING ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /LIKELY-RANGE/ POPS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT WHERE THAT FORCING WITH THE 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO INTERCEPT A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE THAT THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCHES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN MT OVERNIGHT. THE DODGE CITY...KS OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM 00 UTC MARCH 23RD DID SAMPLE A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.42 INCHES...WHICH SUGGESTS THE GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO. MOISTURE TOTALS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SOME QUARTER INCH RAIN TOTALS WILL THUS ALSO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN MT. MEANWHILE...TIME-LAGGED AND ONE-RUN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BACK TO THE WEST IN BILLINGS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CITY WILL LIKELY GET 0.05 INCHES OR LESS OF MOISTURE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME BEHIND TONIGHT/S WAVE PASSAGE. NOTE THAT THE 00 UTC GEM AND ECMWF ACTUALLY SUGGEST MORE BONAFIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW IN BAKER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY PLACE A GREATER EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN PIECE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. WE DO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT WILL END UP PLAYING OUT IS LOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION IS ONE THAT CAN YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS LIKE AT RED LODGE...AND IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS SIMULATION OF THIS SCENARIO THEN WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH A LATER FORECAST RELEASE IN THE FOOTHILLS. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... COOLER AND UNSETTLED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DIURNAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY IN NW FLOW FAVORED AREAS...BUT W/OUT MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING. A SURGE OF MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BACKDOORING COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IN OUR CWA...THOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERENT IN WHERE THEY PAINT HIGHEST QPF. IF SFC TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WET SNOWFALL IN A COMBINATION OF OUR N-NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS AND ALONG SFC BOUNDARY. HAVE RAISED POPS IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST. OF COURSE THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE BIGHORN MTNS FOR SNOWFALL THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING US RAPID DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS HEIGHTS SURGE INTO THE 570S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BACK NEAR 70F IN OUR WEST BUT PROXIMITY TO SLOWER DEPARTING SFC HIGH IN THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP OUR EAST COOLER...ESPECIALLY AFTER A COLD MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS IN OUR EAST DOWN SOME PER MODEL CONSENSUS. IT APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE OFF THE PACIFIC. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...IT NOW LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY/WINDY AND VERY WARM SATURDAY. GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE PREFRONTAL FLOW HAVE RAISED EXPECTED HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 70S. MODEST COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM... WHICH MAY BRING A LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MARCH WILL END ON A WARM NOTE WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. JKL && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA NEAR KBHK THRU 15Z THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS...AND AN ISOLD TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUB- VFR WILL BE IN OUR EAST NEAR KMLS AND KBHK TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 064 039/055 031/048 034/051 032/070 046/077 042/061 2/W 54/W 43/W 32/W 10/B 01/N 22/W LVM 058 031/048 028/048 034/055 035/070 047/072 041/061 6/T 55/W 53/W 22/W 10/N 01/N 22/W HDN 068 037/058 029/048 032/051 028/070 039/079 038/063 2/W 53/W 33/W 32/W 10/B 01/N 22/W MLS 068 039/055 027/045 026/048 026/066 039/076 036/060 2/T 62/W 12/W 22/W 10/B 01/N 21/B 4BQ 070 037/056 027/045 026/047 026/064 038/078 037/060 3/T 63/W 12/W 23/W 10/B 01/N 21/B BHK 064 036/051 024/039 020/041 021/058 035/074 033/055 1/B 74/W 12/J 22/J 10/B 01/N 21/B SHR 066 035/053 027/045 028/048 026/065 038/078 039/060 2/W 54/W 44/W 43/W 20/B 00/B 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
803 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 EXPANDED FOG COVERAGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG FORMING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE THERE WAS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF THIS...WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ARE NOTED AT THE SURFACE...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS VARIABLE AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MOVING WELL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH TO CLEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY...SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH 00Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO MAYBE 200J/KG WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA AND POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...COULD THEN PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO WENT AHEAD WITH -RA IN THE FORECAST. A SUBTLE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SAME TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS COVERED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE RAIN AND NOT SNOW. THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF IN THE EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND COULD EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM ADVECTION BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WARM ADVECTION PUSHES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES COULD BE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. FURTHER WEST WITH SUNSHINE AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION THERE SHOULD BE WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BECAUSE THERE IS MORE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOLER AIR ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER KGRI EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME FOG FORMATION...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTEHRWISE...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WEDENSDAY...AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A LACK IN DIABATIC HEATING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER REALLY IMPEDED ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS CLEARING OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A MARKED INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE STILL FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH/MIXING SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DECREASING DEW POINT VALUES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS HELPING PROMOTE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 15-20% RANGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE. IN ADDITION TO ALL THIS...GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH...WILL PROMOTE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 17-21KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ...AS-IS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FORECAST. THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH EVIDENCE AND CONCERN THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...ROSSI FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
701 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF THIS...WITH LATEST HRRR INDICATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AFTER SUNSET TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR 30000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ARE NOTED AT THE SURFACE...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TWO SURFACE LOWS AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS VARIABLE AS A RESULT. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MOVING WELL INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO AREAS OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH TO CLEAR OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY...SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH 00Z. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL ENERGY ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO MAYBE 200J/KG WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA AND POTENTIAL ENERGY SHOULD THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL ADVECTION...AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...COULD THEN PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO GO WITH 20-50% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO WENT AHEAD WITH -RA IN THE FORECAST. A SUBTLE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SAME TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS IS COVERED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE RAIN AND NOT SNOW. THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF IN THE EVENING...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND COULD EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM ADVECTION BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. AS THE WARM ADVECTION PUSHES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES COULD BE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE EAST...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL. FURTHER WEST WITH SUNSHINE AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION THERE SHOULD BE WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BECAUSE THERE IS MORE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE COOLER AIR ACTUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER KGRI EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME FOG FORMATION...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTEHRWISE...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WEDENSDAY...AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A LACK IN DIABATIC HEATING DUE TO DENSE CLOUD COVER REALLY IMPEDED ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS CLEARING OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A MARKED INCREASE IN DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ARE STILL FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH/MIXING SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE DECREASING DEW POINT VALUES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS HELPING PROMOTE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 15-20% RANGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE. IN ADDITION TO ALL THIS...GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTH...WILL PROMOTE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 17-21KTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ...AS-IS. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST GUIDANCE MAY BE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BOUNDARY- LAYER WIND FORECAST. THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH EVIDENCE AND CONCERN THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY...TO PHILLIPSBURG AND OSBORNE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ082. KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-017-018. && $$ UPDATE...ROSSI SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...ROSSI FIRE WEATHER...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING OTHERWISE IT WILL SIMPLY BE DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONG WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE COLD ARRIVES BY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ENHANCE AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR OTHERWISE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE HRRR HAS THIS BOUNDARY WELL RESOLVED WITH IT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH 12Z BEFORE FALLING APART THIS MORNING. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY EXPECT RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH STEADIER SNOWS ONLY PRODUCING AN INCH OR SO IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL WITH DRY AIR MIXING IN WITH SHALLOW LAKE MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS. NAM/RGEM/GFS MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND THIS MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH SOME CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND CALM WINDS EXPECT THERE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. HEDGED WITH COOLER GUIDANCE WITH LOWS 10 TO 15 SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE RIPPLING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW. THESE LOWER 700/850 HPA HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU TO FORM EARLY TUESDAY...BUT BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S. THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD. FIRST TO BEGIN TO WARM WILL BE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. THIS MILDER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD BUT NOT BEFORE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. THIS RETURN OF MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FLOW FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY A RAIN OR LOWER CHANCE...WET SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ACTIVE FOR OUR REGION AS ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...AND POSSIBLY TWO WAVES OF RAIN PASS OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTICALLY...A SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOUND WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE MIDWEST...WITH A SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN EITHER STEADY OR SLIGHTLY FILLING...WILL ADVANCE FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FIRST SURFACE LOW WILL BRING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES ON THE NOSE OF A 65 KNOTS LLJ WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WNY. ACTIVITY WILL THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL RAINFALL FROM THIS WEDNESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO RANGE FROM A TENTH UPWARD TO A THIRD OF AN INCH. BEHIND THE PERIOD OF RAIN WEDNESDAY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS DRIER AIR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM REACHES THE REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG FLOW JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS MAY GUST UPWARDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STEADY IN ITS MSLP...AND NOT DEEPENING IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CREATING A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION...STRONG...ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. RELATIVE WEAK RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DEPARTS EASTWARD...AND A SECOND AND DEEPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS US FROM THE WEST. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH RIDING OVER A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE 00Z/23 GFS TAKES A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CWA...WHILE THE TRACK OF THE 00Z/23 ECMWF LOW IS JUST A SHADE FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS. THIS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TRACK ON THE ECMWF WOULD MEAN HIGHS THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE GFS OUTPUT...THOUGH BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A GREATER RAINFALL EVENT THAN WEDNESDAY IS POSSIBLE. WITH THERE STILL BEING SOME UNCERTAIN TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND RAINFALL MIDWEEK WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON EITHER DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BEHIND THE MID-WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM...THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS...WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...ALONG WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY YIELD A LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE STATE BY LATE SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF IFR/MVFR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MORNING ON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN A MVFR CLOUD DECK LATE TONIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT THIS TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN. FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER. && .HYDROLOGY... MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A WARM UP MID-WEEK. THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. WESTERN NEW YORK IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FIRST AND WEAKER WAVE...BUT THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND WAVE. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THE SECOND WAVE THAT WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FLOODING ON MOST OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE GENESEE AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THERE ARE ICE JAMS IN PLACE ON SOME CREEKS WHICH COULD RESULT IN ICE JAM FLOODING IF FLOWS INCREASE RAPIDLY. HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE ESF PRODUCT...AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK IS DISCUSSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). IF THERE IS GOING TO BE FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT THIS SPRING...THIS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE THE SYSTEM TO DO IT FOR THE BUFFALO CREEKS...GENESEE...AND ALLEGHENY BASINS. IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042- 043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...APFFEL SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...CHURCH AVIATION...APFFEL MARINE...APFFEL HYDROLOGY...APFFEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY... MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED IN AND HELPED TO SCOUR OUT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW 60S ARE NOW IN PLAY. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO HANG ON IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLEST...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS IS DWINDLING ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS AND RAP MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD HELP TO FORM SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL LOWER TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST. THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND 5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN. CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID- LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN 500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE LAGGING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES... CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95... BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY... CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID- LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND NORMAL BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE AREA AS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN AND CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 15-20 KTS. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THESE GUSTS COULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. OUT IN THE TRIAD WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AREA WHICH COULD GIVE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS BUT OTHERWISE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE TRIAD. LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...DJF AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO PREV FCST WITH SMALL POP IMD CST GRAD ENDING LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL CONT WITH COOL HIGHS IN UPR 40S NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW. GUSTY NE WINDS WL CONT ALONG THE BEACHES. PREV DISC...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW OFFSHORE WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE LIGHT RETURNS INLAND STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...HAVE SCALED POPS BACK TO CHANCE...WITH 40 PCT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER NOON WITH DEWPOINTS DROPING BACK INTO THE 30S. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECT A VEIL OF MID CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHEAST REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS E NC WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TUE THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL DRY WITH JUST AN INC IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 50S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST BREEZE KEEPING IT COOLER HERE. INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS 23/00Z GFS/ECM/CMC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER 50S OBX UNDER NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO UPR SUPPORT AS TROUGH AXIS WORKS THROUGH E NC. DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC CONTINUE WITH A WETTER SOLN WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH LATEST 23/00Z ECMWF HAS A DRIER TREND. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY FROM ECMWF BEFORE MAKING LARGE SCALE CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR E NC. GROWING SEASON WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC ON MARCH 28. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS CREATES A GRADIENT CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY NE WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN HOWEVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. NE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. SCT/BKN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TUE AND WED. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED ALONG CST. SCA WILL CONT THRU AFTN FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS. PREV DISC...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SOUNDS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES WAS TO EXTEND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE E NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130- 131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/LEP MARINE...RF/CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1231 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO PREV FCST WITH SMALL POP IMD CST GRAD ENDING LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL CONT WITH COOL HIGHS IN UPR 40S NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW. GUSTY NE WINDS WL CONT ALONG THE BEACHES. PREV DISC...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW OFFSHORE WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE LIGHT RETURNS INLAND STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...HAVE SCALED POPS BACK TO CHANCE...WITH 40 PCT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER NOON WITH DEWPOINTS DROPING BACK INTO THE 30S. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECT A VEIL OF MID CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHEAST REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS E NC WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TUE THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL DRY WITH JUST AN INC IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 50S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST BREEZE KEEPING IT COOLER HERE. INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSTITVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS 23/00Z GFS/ECM/CMC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER 50S OBX UNDER NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO UPR SUPPORT AS TROUGH AXIS WORKS THROUGH E NC. DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC CONTINUE WITH A WETTER SOLN WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH LATEST 23/00Z ECMWF HAS A DRIER TREND. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY FROM ECMWF BEFORE MAKING LARGE SCALE CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR E NC. GROWING SEASON WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC ON MARCH 28. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...A GENERALLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAS PREVENTED CEILINGS FROM DROPPING DESPITE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON RADAR. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR AT KISO...BUT ANTICIPATE ALL CEILINGS TO BE VFR BY 15Z OR SO AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 30S. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TUE AND WED. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED ALONG CST. SCA WILL CONT THRU AFTN FOR ALL BUT WRN RIVERS. PREV DISC...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SOUNDS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES WAS TO EXTEND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE E NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130- 131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...RF/CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
917 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...REMOVED POPS NRN TIER AND LOWERED SRN TIER AS TRENDS CONT TO SHOW PRECIP DIMINISHING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL CONT WITH COOL HIGHS IN UPR 40S NE TO MID/UPR 50S SW. GUSTY NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES. PREV DISC...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW OFFSHORE WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE LIGHT RETURNS INLAND STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...HAVE SCALED POPS BACK TO CHANCE...WITH 40 PCT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER NOON WITH DEWPOINTS DROPING BACK INTO THE 30S. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECT A VEIL OF MID CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHEAST REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS E NC WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TUE THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL DRY WITH JUST AN INC IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 50S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST BREEZE KEEPING IT COOLER HERE. INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSTITVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS 23/00Z GFS/ECM/CMC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER 50S OBX UNDER NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO UPR SUPPORT AS TROUGH AXIS WORKS THROUGH E NC. DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC CONTINUE WITH A WETTER SOLN WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH LATEST 23/00Z ECMWF HAS A DRIER TREND. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY FROM ECMWF BEFORE MAKING LARGE SCALE CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR E NC. GROWING SEASON WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC ON MARCH 28. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...A GENERALLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAS PREVENTED CEILINGS FROM DROPPING DESPITE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON RADAR. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR AT KISO...BUT ANTICIPATE ALL CEILINGS TO BE VFR BY 15Z OR SO AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 30S. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TUE AND WED. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...INCREASED WINDS A BIT CST PER LATEST OBS AND MDLS AND EXTENDED SCA FOR SOME ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. PREV DISC...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SOUNDS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES WAS TO EXTEND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE E NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130- 131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...RF/CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW OFFSHORE WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THE LIGHT RETURNS INLAND STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR MODEL...HAVE SCALED POPS BACK TO CHANCE...WITH 40 PCT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AFTER NOON WITH DEWPOINTS DROPING BACK INTO THE 30S. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECT A VEIL OF MID CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHEAST REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS E NC WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TUE THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL DRY WITH JUST AN INC IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 50S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST BREEZE KEEPING IT COOLER HERE. INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSTITVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS 23/00Z GFS/ECM/CMC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER 50S OBX UNDER NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO UPR SUPPORT AS TROUGH AXIS WORKS THROUGH E NC. DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC CONTINUE WITH A WETTER SOLN WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH LATEST 23/00Z ECMWF HAS A DRIER TREND. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY FROM ECMWF BEFORE MAKING LARGE SCALE CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR E NC. GROWING SEASON WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC ON MARCH 28. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...A GENERALLY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAS PREVENTED CEILINGS FROM DROPPING DESPITE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON RADAR. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR AT KISO...BUT ANTICIPATE ALL CEILINGS TO BE VFR BY 15Z OR SO AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 30S. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TUE AND WED. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SOUNDS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES WAS TO EXTEND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE E NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130- 131-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
350 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH THUS FAR. DESPITE RETURNS ON RADAR...THE SUBCLOUD LAYER HAS REMAINED TO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO EACH THE GROUND OVER AREAS FURTHER NORTH THIS MORNING. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A GOOD GRADIENT OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...TAPERING TO CHANCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 18Z OR 19Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH LOW/MID 50S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. EXPECT A VEIL OF MID CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR LATE MARCH WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S OUTER BANKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN TYPICAL OF EARLY SPRING WITH LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHEAST REESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS E NC WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TUE THOUGH STILL BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS NEAR CLIMO TUE NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF DURING THE DAY WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH LOW LEVELS STILL DRY WITH JUST AN INC IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 70 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 50S ON THE OUTER BANKS WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST BREEZE KEEPING IT COOLER HERE. INC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS RETURN SSW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND RAPID INC IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENSUES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND LONG WAVE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THUR...WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED WITH BUILDING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND RESPONDING INC TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH. SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED THUNDER. HOWEVER...UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS POSTITVELY TILTED TROUGH IS SLOW TO MAKE HEADWAY TOWARDS E NC...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY HIGHER IF MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT. PRECIP THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THUR NIGHT AS 23/00Z GFS/ECM/CMC IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR FRIDAY...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA DESPITE THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PRODUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER 50S OBX UNDER NORTHEAST SFC FLOW. FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO UPR SUPPORT AS TROUGH AXIS WORKS THROUGH E NC. DETERMINISTIC GFS/CMC CONTINUE WITH A WETTER SOLN WITH A COLD RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH LATEST 23/00Z ECMWF HAS A DRIER TREND. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS CHANCE POPS AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY FROM ECMWF BEFORE MAKING LARGE SCALE CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND POSSIBLE FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR E NC. GROWING SEASON WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC ON MARCH 28. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE RADAR...THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY AND CEILINGS REMAIN HIGH AS IT WILL TAKE WHILE TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A STEADY LIGHT RAIN FALLS. LOWER CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TUE AND WED. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THUR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SOUNDS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS BUT DO EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY. PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 OR 8 FEET THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO ADVISORIES WAS TO EXTEND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON TUE WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY LATE WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT. FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. THE NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE E NC WATERS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130- 131-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS WRAP PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PREDOMINATELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06-07 UTC. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT ARE WET AND SLUSHY ROADS ICING UP AS SUB- FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS OF 2 UTC. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...THIS TIME FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC...BLENDED TO THE 18-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BAND SO FAR EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMARE AND SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY: AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN THE WEST. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN SNOW AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN A SNOW BAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR KDVL AS OF 02 UTC...THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005- 010-011. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
726 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...THIS TIME FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC...BLENDED TO THE 18-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BAND SO FAR EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMARE AND SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY: AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN THE WEST. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN SNOW AT KMOT THROUGH 07-08 UTC...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KBIS THROUGH 03-04 UTC AND KJMS LATER TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005- 010-011. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRATUS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SKY COVER...JUST A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. DID BUMP DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO THE SLOW START TODAY WITH THE STRATUS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE SKY COVER...AND ITS POSSIBLE AFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW NOTED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF MINOT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR INDICATES STRATUS HOLDING ON OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY ERODING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA...HANGS ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE LOWEST IN THESE AREAS...SO NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH/IF ANY THESE NEED TO BE DROPPED. THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS HIGHS HERE MIGHT ALSO BE OKAY. WILL HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...THOUGH IT COULD BE SLOW TO LEAVE IN THE EAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE 23.06Z NAM. WILL NOT ALTER HIGHS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH IF THE STRATUS PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. HELD ONTO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE SPOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA REPORTING SMALL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING FAR NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POTENT S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...GRAZING THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST WITH CLOUDY SKIES FAR NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL WITH LOW STRATUS. WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTH...WHICH WOULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS. STRONG WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG TO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOW 60S PROBABLE SOUTHWEST. MODELS GENERATING DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE CLIMBING INTO THE HUNDREDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MY AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FAR WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHWEST TONIGHT IF AIR TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 32F AS MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN BOTH THE HWO AND SPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RAIN / SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...THOUGH THEY GENERALLY SUGGEST TWO LOWS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR RETURNS AND CONSEQUENTLY SNOW CHANCES. OVERALL...IT APPEARS MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUPPORTING RAIN...THOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST COULD SEE A BIT MORE SNOW THAN OTHER AREAS INITIALLY. ONCE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CWA...SO THE OVERALL TREND OF LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS JUSTIFIED. WILL HAVE A GENERAL AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2....WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS THE LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. COULD SEE WINDS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KISN AND KMOT...WITH IFR CEILINGS AT KJMS. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO DISSIPATE IN THESE AREAS 19-21 UTC. ALREADY STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK AND KBIS HAS CLEARED...THUS VFR CONDITIONS AT KBIS AND KDIK TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH KDIK AND KISN WILL SEE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING AFTER 12 UTC TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA...THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE WEST. MVFR- IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...CK AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1036 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MAIN ISSUE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE SKY COVER...AND ITS POSSIBLE AFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW NOTED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH OF MINOT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. BEHIND THE FRONT MVFR STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST HRRR INDICATES STRATUS HOLDING ON OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY ERODING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA...HANGS ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE LOWEST IN THESE AREAS...SO NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH/IF ANY THESE NEED TO BE DROPPED. THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS HIGHS HERE MIGHT ALSO BE OKAY. WILL HOPEFULLY GET A BETTER IDEA ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF STRATUS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY...THOUGH IT COULD BE SLOW TO LEAVE IN THE EAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE 23.06Z NAM. WILL NOT ALTER HIGHS AT THE MOMENT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH IF THE STRATUS PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. HELD ONTO PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WITH A COUPLE SPOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA REPORTING SMALL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. OVERALL...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING FAR NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A POTENT S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...GRAZING THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SOUTHWEST WITH CLOUDY SKIES FAR NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL WITH LOW STRATUS. WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTH...WHICH WOULD IMPACT DAYTIME HIGHS. STRONG WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG TO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOW 60S PROBABLE SOUTHWEST. MODELS GENERATING DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH CAPE CLIMBING INTO THE HUNDREDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MY AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPED UP OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FAR WEST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MY NORTHWEST TONIGHT IF AIR TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW 32F AS MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN BOTH THE HWO AND SPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RAIN / SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...THOUGH THEY GENERALLY SUGGEST TWO LOWS DEVELOPING. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR RETURNS AND CONSEQUENTLY SNOW CHANCES. OVERALL...IT APPEARS MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUPPORTING RAIN...THOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST COULD SEE A BIT MORE SNOW THAN OTHER AREAS INITIALLY. ONCE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CWA...SO THE OVERALL TREND OF LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE LOOKS JUSTIFIED. WILL HAVE A GENERAL AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2....WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS THE LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. COULD SEE WINDS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 MVFR CEILING CURRENTLY AT KISN/KMOT AND KBIS...AND IFR CEILINGS AT KJMS. WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING KISN AND KBIS BUT HOLD THEM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON KMOT AND MID AFTERNOON KJMS...BUT WILL BRING KJMS TO MVFR FROM IFR AROUND MIDDAY. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...CK AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
949 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. GRAND FORKS AND THEIF RIVER FALLS HAVE STARTED REPORTING SNOW...BUT THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IT IS AND NOT SPREAD IT FURTHER SOUTH. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 OBSERVER REPORTS 3.5 INCHES 12 MILES NW OF CAVALIER...WITH AT LEAST 2 INCHES PROBABLY 3 INCHES REPORTED IN CAVALIER BY THE SHERIFF. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN THAT AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN VALLEY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE STATES. BURST OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE GIVEN THE CALALIER AREA AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL (JUDGING FROM THE WEBCAM). HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CLOSER TO CANADA) FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHEAR OUT. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THIS LED TO SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (COULD ALSO BE MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER NOON). AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PAST RUNS WITH THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN TREND IS FOR MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW...WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UPPER WAVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUICKER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND SLOWER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE. THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH...AND MUCH LESS QPF (IF ANY). THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WAVES AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER. WITH THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING POPS UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY...BUT DID TREND QPF LOWER. PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY WED MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS ON WED...AND IF THEY ARE STRONG AND OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS. THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES QUITE A BIT THIS PERIOD WHILE THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI AND INCREASE TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR SAT. LITTLE CHANGE ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. ANTICIPATE THESE CIGS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND RAP GUIDANCE...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. -SN NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT KTVF...AND POSSIBLY KGFK. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008- 016. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004- 007. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
740 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 OBSERVER REPORTS 3.5 INCHES 12 MILES NW OF CAVALIER...WITH AT LEAST 2 INCHES PROBABLY 3 INCHES REPORTED IN CAVALIER BY THE SHERIFF. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN THAT AREA BEFORE THE UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN VALLEY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE STATES. BURST OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE GIVEN THE CALALIER AREA AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL (JUDGING FROM THE WEBCAM). HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CLOSER TO CANADA) FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHEAR OUT. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THIS LED TO SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (COULD ALSO BE MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER NOON). AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PAST RUNS WITH THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN TREND IS FOR MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW...WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UPPER WAVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUICKER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND SLOWER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE. THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH...AND MUCH LESS QPF (IF ANY). THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WAVES AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER. WITH THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING POPS UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY...BUT DID TREND QPF LOWER. PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY WED MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS ON WED...AND IF THEY ARE STRONG AND OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS. THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES QUITE A BIT THIS PERIOD WHILE THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI AND INCREASE TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR SAT. LITTLE CHANGE ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. ANTICIPATE THESE CIGS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND RAP GUIDANCE...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. -SN NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT KTVF...AND POSSIBLY KGFK. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008- 016. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004- 007. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...ABOUT TO CROSS INTO THE STATES. BURST OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE GIVEN THE CALALIER AREA AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL (JUDGING FROM THE WEBCAM). HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST OF AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (POSSIBLY 3 INCHES CLOSER TO CANADA) FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHEAR OUT. ADJUSTED POPS/QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE. THIS LED TO SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TO AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH INTO THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA BY NOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A WARMER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (COULD ALSO BE MORE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER NOON). AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PAST RUNS WITH THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN TREND IS FOR MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW...WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UPPER WAVES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUICKER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE...AND SLOWER WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE. THIS SCENARIO LEADS TO A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH...AND MUCH LESS QPF (IF ANY). THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...AND DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WAVES AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER. WITH THAT SAID...OPTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING POPS UNTIL MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY...BUT DID TREND QPF LOWER. PRECIP STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BY WED MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS ON WED...AND IF THEY ARE STRONG AND OCCUR WITH FALLING SNOW THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS. THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES QUITE A BIT THIS PERIOD WHILE THE LONG WAVE UPPER HIGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS IS THE FASTER SOLUTION. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR THU AND FRI AND INCREASE TWO TO THREE DEGREES FOR SAT. LITTLE CHANGE ON SUN FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN VALLEY. ANTICIPATE THESE CIGS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND RAP GUIDANCE...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. -SN NOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT KTVF...AND POSSIBLY KGFK. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 945 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FLOW AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH WARM AIR PUSHING NWD W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ENCOURAGING CAD WEDGE ON INCREASING SE FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WAS WORKING EWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY...N OF A WARM FRONT EDGING INTO SRN KENTUCKY. THIS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES NWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE S/W LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED....THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW LOSES ITS PUSH...SO HAVE JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FCST AREA BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W TROUGH...WELL UPSTREAM WED AFTERNOON. USED THE HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISE W OF AND A SLIGHT FALL E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR A WARM WED AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PA...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED EASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z...ALONG A CKB TO CRW TO JKL LINE AT 18Z...AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EVEN AS FRONT PUSHES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID MINUS TEENS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH TROUGH ALOFT CUTS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND BELOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MODIFY OUT OF THE COLDER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 02Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NWD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL CAUSE LITTLE FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING SE FLOW ON THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY TO BRING MVFR STRATOCU THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WED...AFFECTING BKW. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL VFR CEILING 4000-8000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SE TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD BE SLOWER DEVELOPING AROUND BKW THAN FORECAST. THE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU. IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
749 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO TAKE CONTROL. MUCH COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FLOW AMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD...WITH WARM AIR PUSHING NWD W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ENCOURAGING CAD WEDGE ON INCREASING SE FLOW E OF THE MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WAS WORKING EWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY...N OF A WARM FRONT EDGING INTO SRN KENTUCKY. THIS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES NWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...WITH THE HELP OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE S/W LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WED....THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORRESPONDING SFC LOW LOSES ITS PUSH...SO HAVE JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE FCST AREA BENEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W TROUGH...WELL UPSTREAM WED AFTERNOON. USED THE HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS A SLIGHT RISE W OF AND A SLIGHT FALL E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR A WARM WED AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE TO OHIO BY 12Z THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS PA...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED EASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z...ALONG A CKB TO CRW TO JKL LINE AT 18Z...AND THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 21Z. HAVE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EVEN AS FRONT PUSHES EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE TROF SHOULD PUSH EAST LATER FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID MINUS TEENS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH TROUGH ALOFT CUTS IN. WILL CONTINUE TO SIT ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND BELOW...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEARER SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MODIFY OUT OF THE COLDER PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING NWD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WILL CAUSE LITTLE FLIGHT CAT RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING SE FLOW ON THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY TO BRING MVFR STRATOCU THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WED...AFFECTING BKW. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL VFR CEILING 4000-8000 FEET WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SE TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BECOMING A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ON THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD BE SLOWER DEVELOPING AROUND BKW THAN FORECAST. THE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS HERE AND THERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THIS FROM BECOMING TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU. IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND
237 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS COOL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND SOME SNOW IN THE CASCADES. ANOTHER RATHER STRONG LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TODAY AND MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN OREGON FOR MORE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK AND SPLITTING SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH ONE LOW OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND ANOTHER WELL WEST OF THE OREGON COAST. SHOWERS CONTINUE LOCALLY AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HELPING SHOWERS PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DWINDLING AS SHOWERS JUST CANNOT SEEM TO BUILD HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE SALEM 12Z SOUNDING WAS ONLY ABOUT 4000 FT WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL TO FALL WITH SHOWERS...BUT WITH THE -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 14500 FT...SHOWERS WOULD HAVE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT TO ACHIEVE LIGHTNING. HAVE LEFT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL HAIL SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. MOST RECENT HRRR RUN SHOWS WHAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT MODEL TREND OF SHOWERS TAPERING OFF A BIT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. REGARDING THAT LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY LOCATES IT AROUND 44N 130W WHICH ISN`T TOO FAR NORTH OF BUOY 2. LATEST PRESSURE READING AT BUOY 2 WAS AROUND 1012 MB WHICH IS ABOUT 2 MB LOWER THAN THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW AT THE SAME TIME. NO SURPRISE THAT THE MODELS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAK AND BELIEVE THIS BIAS WILL LIKELY APPLY TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. IN OTHER WORDS...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING EITHER A STEADY PRESSURE OR A WEAKENING LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL SOME. 18Z NAM SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 55 KT ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL WHICH COULD BE A BIT STRONGER WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER LOW...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE COAST TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER WITH 925 MB WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE PEAKING AT ONLY 40 KT IN THE MODELS AND EVEN 850 MB WINDS ONLY 50 KT...DO NOT THINK THAT AREA WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AND SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY STILL LOOKS GOOD...ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACK. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP ON THE COAST STARTING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN HIT THE SOUTH VALLEY STARTING AROUND 04Z AND THEN SPREAD NORTH. WINDS SHOULD BE DONE ALONG THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE 06Z-ISH...ABOUT 3 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE OTHER ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS CASCADE SNOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER WITH SNOW LEVELS SO IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ABOVE 4000 FT...BUT THAT`S STILL LOW ENOUGH TO GET SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AT PASS LEVEL. ELSEWHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER...CLOSER TO 3500 FT IN THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. DID NOT SEE ANY NEED TO FURTHER ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT HAVE OBVIOUSLY LIMITED LOWER ELEVATION AMOUNTS WITH RISE IN SNOW LEVELS. PEAK SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING TODAY THROUGH THE PRE-SUNRISE HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE CASCADES AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS AND WIND ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS SOME MORE AREAS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE HOLD ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY THURSDAY. BOWEN/TOLLESON .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WILL MAKE IT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING A BIT ON WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO CLIP SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON/FAR NORTHWEST OREGON OR NOT. AS OF NOW...THE GFS IS SHOWING A CHANCE OF RAIN MAKING IT DOWN TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING IT FURTHER NORTH.WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY. FOR SATURDAY WE GET INTO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A BROAD LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS BRINGS MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC WHICH IS A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES. THIS SSW-ERLY FLOW ONLY INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS US ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. -MCCOY && .AVIATION...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL AND BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTION AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT PUTTING THE MENTION IN ANY TAF. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MANY LOCATIONS DETERIORATING INTO MVFR CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY CENTERED BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ASHORE AND INLAND...SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT AT KONP AND 40 KT AT KSLE AND KEUG APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR AT THESE TAF SITES WHEN THESE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS SURFACE...PARTICULARLY AT KSLE AND KEUG. KPDX AND APPROACHES...A SHOWERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY BRIEF TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND WINDS RELAX...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z TUESDAY. /NEUMAN && .MARINE...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST TONIGHT. THE LATEST ROUND OF SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWPORT AND TILLAMOOK. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...AT WHICH POINT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK. AS A RESULT...SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 12 TO 15 FT RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. FARTHER NORTH...SEAS SHOULD TEMPORARILY JUMP ABOVE 10 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT DURATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE WINDS AND ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OF 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL THEN ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PRODUCE A MORE SUMMER-LIKE NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. A WEAK FRONT COULD TEMPORARILY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. /NEUMAN && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST. WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM PDT TUESDAY. && $$ INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING - BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1048 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING - BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
803 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLOUD DECK HAS DISSIPATED AS IT DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND POSS OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING - BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS MOVES OVR THE REGION. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z-12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WITH HIGHER BASED STRATOCU IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT RANGE DOMINATING THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AIRSPACE. CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND SLIDING SOUTH SO CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH EVEN JST BECOMING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN WITH LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE BY WED MORNING...WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER INTO WED NGT INTO THU WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SFC WND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
629 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CLIPPER. UPSTREAM RADAR/SFC OBS...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE SNOW A BIT...BUT OVERALL QPF HASN/T INCREASED APPRECIABLY. STILL FAVORING ACCUMS FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RADAR AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST SNOW SHOULD REACH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BTWN 00Z-02Z BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...CAUSING SNOW TO TAPER OFF ARND THAT TIME. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID 20S OVER THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AND SNOW COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MADE A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAFS. JUST HIGH CLDS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...BUT THICKER CLDS JUST TO THE WEST. VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING SE TOWARD CENTRAL PA. A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING. EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST AND NW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
545 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AND FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CLIPPER. UPSTREAM RADAR/SFC OBS...COMBINED WITH NEAR TERM MDL DATA...SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT. BASED ON INPUT OF LATEST HRRR/4KM NAM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE SNOW A BIT...BUT OVERALL QPF HASN/T INCREASED APPRECIABLY. STILL FAVORING ACCUMS FROM 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COUNTIES...TO A COATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RADAR AND HRRR OUTPUT SUGGEST SNOW SHOULD REACH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS BTWN 00Z-02Z BEFORE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN PA OVERNIGHT. MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND BULK OF LG SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...CAUSING SNOW TO TAPER OFF ARND THAT TIME. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID 20S OVER THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER DURING THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK. LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAKING UP AND SNOW COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW...BUT SOMEWHAT BUMPY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL HOLD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK...AND AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S...LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LAST FALL. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAFS. JUST HIGH CLDS OUTSIDE THE OFFICE...BUT THICKER CLDS JUST TO THE WEST. VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVING SE TOWARD CENTRAL PA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE AFTER 18-21Z. A WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO THE SWRN HALF OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM JST-AOO SOUTHWARD...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER TUES MORNING. EXPECT VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MIGRATES ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. OUTLOOK... WED-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR...PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE WEST AND NW. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1048 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SO FAR...WE HAVE BEEN GOING TO A LATE AFTERNOON PEAK IN THE ACCUMULATION THREAT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUED FIT WITH THAT IDEA. WITH SOME SPOTTY ICING TO BOOT...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE SPOTTY ICING IS LIKELY TO ABATE BUT MAY SHOW UP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A VERY SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE LOSS OF THE SOLAR RADIATION EFFECT THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AS FOR THE SNOW...A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSH WOULD COME QUICKLY AND AT THE TIME PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO BE OUT DRIVING...WHAT I CALL THE PRAIRIE EARLY EVENING RUSH HOUR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END STEADILY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN...LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA COULD BRING SOME VERY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE MORNING TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA...BUT POPS WILL BE LOW AND THE DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHORT. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WINDY BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HOLD SHORT OF WIN ADVISORY LEVELS EVEN THOUGH I AM GOING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MIXED AIR. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE COOL BUT MIXED AIR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE SOLID...AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30 TONIGHT...MEANING LITTLE DROP INT HE EAST...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS SOUTH. THAT WILL OF COURSE BE WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT COOLER SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 GENERALLY A RATHER TRANQUIL MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW TROUBLE SPOTS. SHARP NWLY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL SPELL A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH MID-LVL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...A TIGHTENING LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ZIP THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A SECOND LATE FRIDAY. QPF WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE COULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 EXPECT LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BECOME COMMON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY...SO LOWERED CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS AT THE KFSD AND KSUX TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEARING BEHIND IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD WEDNESDAY OF MVFR STRATOCU IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING RATHER GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. TODAYS WETTING RAINS HAVE MAINLY IMPACTED AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...LEAVING FUELS IN THE AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RISKS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MINIMIZING THE WILDFIRE RISK. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002- 003-013-014-021-022-032. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...DUX AVIATION...CHENARD FIRE WEATHER...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SO FAR...WE HAVE BEEN GOING TO A LATE AFTERNOON PEAK IN THE ACCUMULATION THREAT AND THE RAP SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CONTINUED FIT WITH THAT IDEA. WITH SOME SPOTTY ICING TO BOOT...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST IOWA. THE SPOTTY ICING IS LIKELY TO ABATE BUT MAY SHOW UP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH A VERY SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND THE LOSS OF THE SOLAR RADIATION EFFECT THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AS FOR THE SNOW...A COUPLE INCHES OF SLUSH WOULD COME QUICKLY AND AT THE TIME PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO BE OUT DRIVING...WHAT I CALL THE PRAIRIE EARLY EVENING RUSH HOUR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END STEADILY FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN...LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER WAVE SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA COULD BRING SOME VERY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE MORNING TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AREA...BUT POPS WILL BE LOW AND THE DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHORT. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WINDY BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL HOLD SHORT OF WIN ADVISORY LEVELS EVEN THOUGH I AM GOING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE MIXED AIR. SOME CLOUDS LIKELY IN THE COOL BUT MIXED AIR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE SOLID...AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOWS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 30 TONIGHT...MEANING LITTLE DROP INT HE EAST...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS SOUTH. THAT WILL OF COURSE BE WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT COOLER SOUTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 GENERALLY A RATHER TRANQUIL MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW TROUBLE SPOTS. SHARP NWLY WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SYSTEM. THIS WILL SPELL A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH MID-LVL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...A TIGHTENING LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ZIP THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A SECOND LATE FRIDAY. QPF WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE WE COULD MAKE A RUN INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WINTRY MIX WILL EXIT NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 10 PM. EXPECT LOW STRATUS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEARING BEHIND IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD WEDNESDAY OF MVFR STRATOCU IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS SOME INDICATION THAT DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING RATHER GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT. TODAYS WETTING RAINS HAVE MAINLY IMPACTED AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...LEAVING FUELS IN THE AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RISKS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MINIMIZING THE WILDFIRE RISK. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002- 003-013-014-021-022-032. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...DUX AVIATION...CHENARD FIRE WEATHER...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMBING AS THE SUN EMERGES. SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE HISTORY FOR SOME AREAS. ONCE AGAIN THE HRRR LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRODUCT PERFORMED EXTREMELY WELL IN ERODING THE STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE CWA. THAT SAID THOUGH...IT STILL APPEARS A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ITS A QUESTION OF JUST HOW FILLED IN AND INTENSE THIS BAND WILL BE. BACKED OFF ON QPF A BIT THOUGH AS MODELS ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH ITS QPF OUTPUT. OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST. COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS ALL SHOWING A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY IN THE DRY SLOT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP POTENTIAL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT...WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THE EC DOES NOT TAKE IT MUCH SOUTH OF THE ND/SD BORDER. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE MORE RELIABLE EC AT THIS POINT. INTERESTING TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THIS TIME AROUND THE GEM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A FLAT RIDGE WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLUCTUATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN DOES LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS BEST UPPER ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS...SPLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A STRONGER WAVE CRASHES THROUGH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...THEN A REBOUND OF TEMPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 IFR AND LIFR CIGS DUE TO FOG AT KABR AND KATY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...SCARLETT AVIATION...SCARLETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 .AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/ VFR SKC CONDITIONS ONGOING NOW THROUGH 08-09Z WITH EXPECTED FALLING CATEGORIES FOR KAUS/KSSF/KSAT TERMINALS THEREAFTER THROUGH 15Z. COMBINATION OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A VARIANCE OF MVFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR WHERE PATCHY LOCALIZED DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR. FEEL MAJORITY OF 09-15Z TIME FRAME WILL BE LOW END MVFR AS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE THICKER FOG AND LOWER CIGS PER BULLISH NAM SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT. KDRT WILL STAY VFR SKC THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REST OF MONDAY. CENTRAL SITES WILL RECOVER THROUGH MID MORNING AND BE VFR BY 17-19Z WITH KSAT/KSSF LIKELY HOLDING ON THE LONGEST. EXPECT ANOTHER POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM NOW THROUGH 12Z AND REMAIN 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE SE BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. /ALLEN/ && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NOW. UPDATE INCLUDE A MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR THE NERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN A DEVELOPING FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST AT DAYBREAK AND THE EXISTING SOAKED SOILS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW PUSHING TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS IT DOES THAT...DRY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AS A WEAK ASCENT/OMEGA AREA PUSHES OVER THAT REGION. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS AND WET SOILS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND 2 AM THURSDAY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SERRANIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS STORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IN THE EVENING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 57 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 55 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 56 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 58 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 61 86 62 83 / 0 0 0 - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 57 79 59 77 / 0 0 0 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 57 82 58 80 / 0 0 0 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 56 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 56 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 58 81 59 78 / 0 0 0 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 57 82 58 79 / 0 0 0 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 .AVIATION... CONCERNS...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DAYBREAK THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15-16Z. METROPLEX TAF SITES... WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST GROUND...AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED 4SM BR AROUND 08Z AND 1SM BR BY 11Z. FOR THE 11-14Z PERIOD...HAVE SHOWN TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002 OR OVC002...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY GO DOWN TO 1/4SM FG VV001 OR OVC001. THE FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 16Z. SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WACO... EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AT WACO...WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z...AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1SM BY 09Z. HAVE INDICATED A TEMPO 1/2SM FG OVC002 FOR THE 10-14Z PERIOD WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 16-17Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 KNOTS BY 15Z MONDAY. 58 && .UPDATE... SKIES HAVE CLEARED...AND WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 50S...RAPIDLY APPROACHING DEW POINTS. FOLLOWING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT...THIS WOULD APPEAR THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR FOG. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT GUN-SHY. THE NAM PERFECT PROG IS THE MOST BULLISH...BLANKETING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN DENSE FOG...BUT THE CORRESPONDING MOS IS FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG...BUT NEITHER IS INCLINED FOR IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWS THAT THE MOIST LAYER IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE IS INCREDIBLY THIN. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITHIN A MILE OF THE SURFACE...EASILY ASSURING ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING...EVEN A LIGHT BREEZE AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE DECK. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM...EXPECT DEW WILL BEGIN TO FORM AS GROUND TEMPS COOL MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE 2-METER TEMPS INDICATE. SHALLOW FOG WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL FAVOR LOW-LYING AREAS...BODIES OF WATER...AND LOCATIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRED. BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS...THE DEPTH OF THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS (WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT) FOR ANY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. IF FOG IS WELL ESTABLISHED BY MIDNIGHT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/ WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WAS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT THICK CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. IF SUBSIDENCE IS ABLE TO CLEAR OUT SKIES TONIGHT...AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH DEW POINT VALUES THIS AFTERNOON OBSERVED IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH...FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE THICKNESS OF THE FOG WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. IF SKIES BECOME CLEAR...CHANCES ARE HIGH THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED AS A RESULT. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE THE SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS BEFORE BUYING IN ON AREAS OF DENSE FOG. SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE...HOWEVER GETTING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR BELOW WILL BE DIFFICULT WITHOUT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SEND SOME ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SENDING A PACIFIC-TYPE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES TO THE EAST WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT ALONG THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS CAP APPEARS TO BE STOUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM HINT AT A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LIFT TO TRIGGER THE SHALLOW CONVECTION SCHEMES OF THESE MODELS. THIS CAN BE VISUALIZED AS A SUDDEN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS TUESDAY 7 PM). BECAUSE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING A STOUT CAP...AND MODELS ARE ADVERTISING RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...DECIDED TO ONLY MENTION A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A STORM WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP...THERE IS A CHANCE IT WOULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS. CHANCES ARE WE WILL NOT SEE STORMS THIS FAR SOUTH HOWEVER. EXPECT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER...SO OUR CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC-FRONT OR DRYLINE ARE BETTER AS A RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THE FRONT. WITH STRONGER LIFT EXPECTED...WENT AHEAD WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SEND THE STALLED OUT PACIFIC-TYPE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE FRONT STARTS MOVING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE FRONT INTO A SQUALL LINE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE...STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BECOMING ORGANIZED QUICKLY INTO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WHILE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES CLIMB TO 45 TO 50 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS...THE FORCING FOR ASCENT LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA NEAR THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY...AND THE CAP IN PLACE WOULD INITIALLY FAVOR A DISCRETE STORM MODE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THIS WOULD PROBABLY SUPPORT A RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS UNTIL THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES...STRONGER LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP OVER A LARGER AREA RESULTING IN THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF DISCRETE STORMS INTO A SQUALL LINE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING OVER TO PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO REALLY ASSESS THE TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER A QUICK LOOK AT PARAMETERS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY OF COURSE AND CAN ASSESS SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. WHILE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD CONCERN WITH STORMS REMAINING CLOSELY TIED TO A MOVING FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY ASSUMING A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 49 76 59 81 60 / 0 0 5 10 10 WACO, TX 48 77 57 80 59 / 0 0 5 5 10 PARIS, TX 46 74 52 77 56 / 0 0 5 5 20 DENTON, TX 48 76 58 82 57 / 0 0 5 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 47 75 56 79 58 / 0 0 5 10 20 DALLAS, TX 51 76 59 80 61 / 0 0 5 10 10 TERRELL, TX 47 75 56 78 59 / 0 0 5 5 10 CORSICANA, TX 49 76 56 79 60 / 0 0 5 5 10 TEMPLE, TX 50 77 56 79 58 / 0 0 5 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 49 79 59 85 56 / 0 0 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
846 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...WESTWARD ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 830 PM EDT TUESDAY... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE VA/NC BORDER...WESTWARD ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT...WAS RESULTING IN AN AREA A LIGHT RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE FROM THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS SOUTH INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE MODELS SUGGEST ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS...TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO 50 SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MAY SEE A COUPLE POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAWN ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY...AND WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT AS THE GROUND IS TOO WARM. WHILE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF ADVECTING WARMTH UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... REMNANT WEDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT EARLY THU. ALL OF THE MODELS BROADBRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH LOW QPF...GENERALLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 18Z THU. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ALL OF THE APPRECIABLE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...ACTUALLY EVEN FURTHER WEST ACROSS OH/KY/TN AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR +12C. SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO AS YESTERDAY BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS AND IN LIGHT OF AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND BETTER FORCING HAS SLOWED ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUS...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE REMOVED FROM THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST CAPES ARE FORECAST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ON MOST MODELS...AND ONLY IN A NARROW WINDOW FROM AROUND 18Z-21Z. THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z IN THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...BUT EVEN LESS SUPPORT THAN YESTERDAY FROM MY VIEWPOINT FOR ANYTHING SEVERE. THERE IS NO LLF EVIDENT IN COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS...SO WILL CONTINUE NOT TO MENTION SEVERE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. FOR FRIDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE POSSIBILITY OF COMBINING FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THUS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY FRIDAY...THE THREAT FURTHER EAST APPEARS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...1/2 INCH OR LESS...ARE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER BY EARLY FRIDAY FROM UPSLOPE -SHSN. A FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH AREAS AS FAR EAST AS BATH...MONTGOMERY...WATAUGA COUNTIES BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN THE PLUNGE TOWARD -15C READINGS BY EARLY SAT...BUT AGAIN...SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACT/SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND FALLING/COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING THAT WINTER IS NOT YET FINISHED...COMPARED TO RECENT MILD/WARM DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... BEGINNING VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE PARENT ARCTIC/CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE AROUND MARCH 6TH. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...30S BULK OF THE CWA...40S PIEDMONT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SLATED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS OF INTEREST AS NOW THE CANADIAN HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE GFS IN ADVERTISING A SMALL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE GFS FROM GA/SC TO OVER OUR REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN FOCUS MORE ON EAST TN/WESTERN NC...CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. THERE WILL ALSO BE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL WITH THE CLIPPER AS WELL. THE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED COMPELS ME TO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND THROUGH SW VA/NW NC INTO SAT...ENDING BY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FRI-SAT EVENT. BEYOND THAT...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SHORT WAVE...VARYING FROM VERY STRONG ON THE GFS TO VERY WEAK ON THE ECMWF TRACKING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE WEST MONDAY...NOT TO THE DEGREE THE GFS WOULD ADVERTISE AT THIS POINT. WILL EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH LATER MODELS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AS OF YET. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 830 PM EDT TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING PRODUCING AN EAST WIND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE VA/NC BORDER WESTWARD ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA INTO KENTUCKY. CONVERGENT FLOW VCNTY OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. AT SOME POINT...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS. ATTM...CLOUD BASES REMAIN VFR...4-7KFT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THESE HIGHER BASES IN THE TAF FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING THEM LOWER. MODELS SUGGEST ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE IFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY. TRENDED THE CIGS UPWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWER THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...AND FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THEN ENTIRE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHILE UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PERSIST MOUNTAINS UNDER CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...NF/PM SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...AMS/RAB AVIATION...PM
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 EVENING NAM MODEL RUN HAS LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...DOWN FROM THE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO EARLIER TODAY TO 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES. AREA RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING OVER ILLINOIS MAY STAY SOUTH AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH IT. DID NOTICE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 12Z OR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE BEST TIME OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES WITH A FEW 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL POSSIBLE TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY EVEN IF SNOW AMOUNTS TREND LESS. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEADLINES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 INITIAL BAND OF PCPN WORKING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PRODUCING MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LITTLE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS INITIAL BAND TO REACH THE FOX CITIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM AND GRB AROUND 10 PM. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN ALSO WILL BE WORKING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS PER EVENING UPPER AIR RUN. MUCH OF THE THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ABSORBED INTO SATURATING THE AIR MASS...AND WHEN SATURATING...APPEARS TO COOL TO A MAINLY SNOW VARIETY. AN INTENSE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW WORKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THE LATER NIGHT FOCUS AS IT MAY CLIP PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND REGION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TIMING THE WINTRY PRECIP AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND SREF. TAKING THE BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A BEEFY LLJ UPWARDS OF 50KTS WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WILL BE POINTED AT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PWATS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AS OPPOSED TO 0.15 PWAT CURRENTLY). WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z. THE STRONG LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A RATHER INTENSE PERIOD OF PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT AM COUNTING ON THE INTENSE PRECIP RATES AND LIFT TO COOL THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BETWEEN 850-800MB BACK TO OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...AM THINKING PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIX IN FROM WAUTOMA TO THE DOOR. AREAS AROUND MANITOWOC/CALUMET/KEWAUNEE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE MIXED PRECIP THE LONGEST...AND THIS WILL CUT INTO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE SOME. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS...THE QUICK FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIMIT ACCUMS. WILL SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY...PERHAPS TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IF THERE IS LESS OF A MIX...AND SNOWFALL RATES BECOME AN INCH PER HOUR. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ONLY SEE 1-3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL BE SNOWING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...THUS AN ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH COULD FALL BY MID-MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE MESSY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. DRY SLOTTING WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL LINGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. GENERALLY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED IF THIS SYSTEM WOULD OCCUR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES IF IT SHOULD OCCUR MORE ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS SNOW AND A SNOW MIX DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM MFI TO SUE...AND A MIX SOUTH. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-031- 035>040-045-048>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1011 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 EVENING NAM MODEL RUN HAS LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...DOWN FROM THE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO EARLIER TODAY TO 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES. AREA RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING OVER ILLINOIS MAY STAY SOUTH AND KEEP THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH WITH IT. DID NOTICE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 12Z OR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE BEST TIME OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES WITH A FEW 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL POSSIBLE TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY EVEN IF SNOW AMOUNTS TREND LESS. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HEADLINES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 INITIAL BAND OF PCPN WORKING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PRODUCING MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LITTLE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS INITIAL BAND TO REACH THE FOX CITIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM AND GRB AROUND 10 PM. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN ALSO WILL BE WORKING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS PER EVENING UPPER AIR RUN. MUCH OF THE THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ABSORBED INTO SATURATING THE AIR MASS...AND WHEN SATURATING...APPEARS TO COOL TO A MAINLY SNOW VARIETY. AN INTENSE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW WORKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THE LATER NIGHT FOCUS AS IT MAY CLIP PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND REGION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TIMING THE WINTRY PRECIP AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND SREF. TAKING THE BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A BEEFY LLJ UPWARDS OF 50KTS WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WILL BE POINTED AT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PWATS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AS OPPOSED TO 0.15 PWAT CURRENTLY). WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z. THE STRONG LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A RATHER INTENSE PERIOD OF PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT AM COUNTING ON THE INTENSE PRECIP RATES AND LIFT TO COOL THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BETWEEN 850-800MB BACK TO OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...AM THINKING PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIX IN FROM WAUTOMA TO THE DOOR. AREAS AROUND MANITOWOC/CALUMET/KEWAUNEE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE MIXED PRECIP THE LONGEST...AND THIS WILL CUT INTO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE SOME. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS...THE QUICK FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIMIT ACCUMS. WILL SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY...PERHAPS TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IF THERE IS LESS OF A MIX...AND SNOWFALL RATES BECOME AN INCH PER HOUR. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ONLY SEE 1-3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL BE SNOWING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...THUS AN ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH COULD FALL BY MID-MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE MESSY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. DRY SLOTTING WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL LINGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. GENERALLY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED IF THIS SYSTEM WOULD OCCUR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES IF IT SHOULD OCCUR MORE ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM MFI TO SUE...AND A MIX SOUTH. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-031- 035>040-045-048>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
858 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 INITIAL BAND OF PCPN WORKING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PRODUCING MIXED PCPN OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LITTLE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS INITIAL BAND TO REACH THE FOX CITIES BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM AND GRB AROUND 10 PM. THIS INITIAL BAND OF PCPN ALSO WILL BE WORKING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS PER EVENING UPPER AIR RUN. MUCH OF THE THE INITIAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET ABSORBED INTO SATURATING THE AIR MASS...AND WHEN SATURATING...APPEARS TO COOL TO A MAINLY SNOW VARIETY. AN INTENSE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW WORKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND MAY BE THE LATER NIGHT FOCUS AS IT MAY CLIP PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND REGION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TIMING THE WINTRY PRECIP AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND SREF. TAKING THE BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A BEEFY LLJ UPWARDS OF 50KTS WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WILL BE POINTED AT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PWATS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AS OPPOSED TO 0.15 PWAT CURRENTLY). WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z. THE STRONG LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A RATHER INTENSE PERIOD OF PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT AM COUNTING ON THE INTENSE PRECIP RATES AND LIFT TO COOL THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BETWEEN 850-800MB BACK TO OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...AM THINKING PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIX IN FROM WAUTOMA TO THE DOOR. AREAS AROUND MANITOWOC/CALUMET/KEWAUNEE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE MIXED PRECIP THE LONGEST...AND THIS WILL CUT INTO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE SOME. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS...THE QUICK FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIMIT ACCUMS. WILL SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY...PERHAPS TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IF THERE IS LESS OF A MIX...AND SNOWFALL RATES BECOME AN INCH PER HOUR. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ONLY SEE 1-3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL BE SNOWING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...THUS AN ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH COULD FALL BY MID-MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE MESSY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. DRY SLOTTING WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL LINGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. GENERALLY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED IF THIS SYSTEM WOULD OCCUR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES IF IT SHOULD OCCUR MORE ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM MFI TO SUE...AND A MIX SOUTH. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AHEAD OF THE LOW...AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER IOWA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND REGION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE AS THE PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT RESIDES OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TIMING THE WINTRY PRECIP AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/AND SREF. TAKING THE BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A BEEFY LLJ UPWARDS OF 50KTS WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WILL BE POINTED AT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THIS LLJ WILL TRANSPORT PWATS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (AS OPPOSED TO 0.15 PWAT CURRENTLY). WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE...QG FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 03-06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z. THE STRONG LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A RATHER INTENSE PERIOD OF PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT AM COUNTING ON THE INTENSE PRECIP RATES AND LIFT TO COOL THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BETWEEN 850-800MB BACK TO OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...AM THINKING PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET MIX IN FROM WAUTOMA TO THE DOOR. AREAS AROUND MANITOWOC/CALUMET/KEWAUNEE HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE MIXED PRECIP THE LONGEST...AND THIS WILL CUT INTO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE SOME. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS...THE QUICK FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIMIT ACCUMS. WILL SHOW A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE FOX VALLEY WHERE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY...PERHAPS TOWARDS A HIGHER END ADVISORY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN IF THERE IS LESS OF A MIX...AND SNOWFALL RATES BECOME AN INCH PER HOUR. NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY ONLY SEE 1-3 INCHES...BUT IT WILL BE SNOWING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...THUS AN ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WEDNESDAY...SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH COULD FALL BY MID-MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. REGARDLESS...THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE MESSY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. DRY SLOTTING WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COMMA HEAD WILL LINGER OVER N-C WISCONSIN WHERE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. GENERALLY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNOW BELT REGION OF VILAS COUNTY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...OR SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES NOTED IF THIS SYSTEM WOULD OCCUR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPES IF IT SHOULD OCCUR MORE ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW SPREAD OVER THE AREA. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM MFI TO SUE...AND A MIX SOUTH. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PULLING OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS IS INCOMING FROM THE LATTER SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR PRESENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SOUNDING BELOW 700MB WHICH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME IF IT SURVIVES THE TRIP INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...BUT THE DRY AIR IS HALTING ANY ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE RELATIVELY MINOR...AND CENTER AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS. TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY...IT WILL RUN INTO MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 10KFT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY AIR WEDGE WELL TONIGHT...SO THINK WE WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH. TUESDAY...DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. 925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITHIN THIS AIRMASS SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40 EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE THAT MAY WIPE OUT THE WARM LAYER. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE ON THE ROADS AND FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDED MORE SNOW TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS SHIFT. TO SHOW YOU THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...GRB NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATED 0.4 INCHES OF ICE WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL SUPPORTED THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. ALSO...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WAS OF CONCERN. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THOSE TYPE OF EVENTS USUALLY DO NOT GET US TO WARNING CRITERIA. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD WISCONSIN. THE LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL INCLUDE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PULLING OUT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS IS INCOMING FROM THE LATTER SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR PRESENT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SOUNDING BELOW 700MB WHICH THE UPSTREAM LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME IF IT SURVIVES THE TRIP INTO N-C WISCONSIN LATER TODAY. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...BUT THE DRY AIR IS HALTING ANY ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON ARE RELATIVELY MINOR...AND CENTER AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS. TONIGHT...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF IT CURRENTLY...IT WILL RUN INTO MUCH DRIER AIR BELOW 10KFT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY AIR WEDGE WELL TONIGHT...SO THINK WE WILL ONLY SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH. TUESDAY...DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. WILL SEE INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. 925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITHIN THIS AIRMASS SO DROPPED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40 EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE THAT MAY WIPE OUT THE WARM LAYER. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE ON THE ROADS AND FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH SYSTEM TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH...THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDED MORE SNOW TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS SHIFT. TO SHOW YOU THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...GRB NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATED 0.4 INCHES OF ICE WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL SUPPORTED THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. ALSO...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WAS OF CONCERN. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD. THOSE TYPE OF EVENTS USUALLY DO NOT GET US TO WARNING CRITERIA. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. AS A HEADS UP...HEAVY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS SNOW TO FALL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1139 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 RADARS THIS EVENING SHOW A STRONG FGEN BAND OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ALONG THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IT ALONG WITH THE BAND ITSELF. QUESTION FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL REACH THE AREA. DRY FEED OF AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE OR HOLD OF WESTERN ADVANCEMENT OF SNOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE ALREADY DELAYED ARRIVAL A BIT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT STILL OVERALL THEME OF A MINOR ACCUMULATION FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MFI TO OSH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT SO LITTLE CHANGES LIKELY NEEDED REST OF TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A POLAR AIRMASS. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRY AIR EMANATING FROM A CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS PREVENTED THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN DESPITE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR EARLIER. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES EAST...SNOW AND ACCUMULATION CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...800-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. BUT THE MAIN PUSH OF SNOW WILL BE EXITING MINNESOTA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 25KT LLJ AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA OF SNOW WHERE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE FEEDING IN DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED ABOVE 750MB BY 06Z ACCORDING TO THE NAM...WHILE THE MESOMODELS AND SREF ARE SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN PRECIP BY THIS TIME INTO WOOD COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA IN THE 06-09Z PERIOD. ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH UP TO AN INCH IN WOOD COUNTY BUT ONLY A TENTH OR TWO FROM WAUSAU TO OSHKOSH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 20S SOUTH. MONDAY...ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE START OF THE MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER TO THIN AS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND AN EAST WIND WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO DRY AND COLD EASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW DEW POINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WARM LAYER ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATING DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ALOFT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM LAYER WILL GET ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. ALSO... ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (700-500MB) AROUND 6.5 C/KM. EVEN THE WARM LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX OR START AS SNOW UNTIL WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR ARRIVES. THESE ISSUES WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT AN ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015 AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN OR SOUTH OF LINE FROM MFI TO Y50 FOR AT TIME TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE.........TDH SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
359 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES WITH IT THRU LATE AFTN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW MAINLY NLY BEHIND THE FNT. IN THE MTNS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THRU MIDDAY HOWEVER BY AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS AS MID LVL DESCENT DVLPS. THUS SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. OVER NERN CO FCST IS MORE COMPLICATED. WITH NLY LOW LVL FLOW AREAS CLOSER TO THE WY BORDER MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS WHILE AREAS FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE SEE THE BEST CHC. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL IN THE AFTN. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LYR OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO ERODE AS THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. MEANWHILE WET BULB ZEROS SUGGEST PCPN MAY FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OVER THE SRN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP TONIGHT DUE TO HOUR TO HOUR INCONSISTENCIES WITH WITH REGARDS TO PCPN POTENTIAL. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO HOWEVER THE FAR NERN CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S WHERE PCPN POTENTIAL AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS. FOR TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING IN THE MTNS...SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST IS THE CAUSE. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN NORMAL PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON FRIDAY THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME AROUND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW THAT THERE IS A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE GFS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-7 C OVER TODAY`S HIGHS. FRIDAY`S READINGS ARE ANOTHER 3-6 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER COLORADO AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS THING PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RIDGING AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS WAY MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALL FOUR DAYS COMPARED TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF. REALLY THERE IS LITTLE GOING ON AND GFS HAS SOME MINOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE WITH NOTHING ON THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 14Z THRU 21Z PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF DIA. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM IN THE AFTN. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SHOULD STAY ON GRASSY AREAS AND BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. THE THREAT OF SNOW AT DIA SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY 00Z. CEILINGS WITH THE PCPN MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT WITH VISBILITIES MOSTLY IN THE 3-5 RANGE UNLESS A HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES ACROSS. AS FOR WINDS THEY HAVE BECOME LIGHT SSE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A CDFNT WAS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL WELD AND WILL MOVE ACROSS BEFORE 12Z. WINDS WILL PROBABLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY TO MID AFTN AND THEN BECOME MORE NNW BY 21Z. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NWLY AND THEN WILL TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
550 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE...ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL COUNTIES THRU 15Z. TODAY-TONIGHT... H100-H70 EXTENDING BTWN THE MID ATLC COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK/FL STRAITS WILL PUSH SEAWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PREVAILING MID/UPR LVL ZONAL WIND PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES... A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL WILL COLLAPSE...ALLOWING LOW/MID LVL WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW. ALOFT...MID LVL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GOMEX WILL PUSH A VERY STABLE H85-H70 THERMAL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL FL...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE LYR...RANGING FROM ARND 3.0C/KM OVERHEAD TO BLOW 2.0C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-10C BLANKETING ITS ERN HALF. VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 50-60PCT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED TO THE S/E ARE THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND ASSCD WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU THE FL PENINSULA ON MON. RUC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING AS MID LVL VORTICITY IS LIMITED WHILE THE 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE DEEP S IS NEITHER STRONG ENOUGH NOR CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. EVEN SO... ISOLD SHRAS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR SVRL HRS...LARGELY DUE TO THE LCL INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT WRLY FLOW ABV H85 HAS KEPT THESE OFFSHORE. STRATUS DECK HAS REFORMED AND WILL REQUIRE A FEW HRS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD OCCUR A LITTLE FASTER TODAY AS SW WINDS ALOFT TAP A SLUG OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL AIR OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST S OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIP OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT WITH GENERAL QPF AOB 0.10" SFC/LOW LVL WINDS BCMG MORE ERLY TODAY ALONG WITH GREATER HEATING POTENTIAL WILL ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS ALONG WITH THE DVLPG ERLY FLOW. LIGHT SRLY FLOW DVLPG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70S ALONG THE E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THU-FRI NIGHT... LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS MOISTURE NORTH . DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSH RAIN CHANCES TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT FRI. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA. SAT-MON... NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE U.S. BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT AND SUN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 MARTIN COUNTY SAT AND THE 70S ON SUN. TUE-WED... DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MON AND LOW 80S TUE. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE MORNING AND LOW/MID 60S WED MORNING. && .AVIATION...THRU 26/12Z SFC WIND: THRU 25/15Z...N/NE AOB 5KTS. BTWN 24/15Z-24/18Z...BCMG E 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 25/03Z. AFT 25/03Z...SE AOB 5KTS. VSBY/WX: THRU 25/15Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR IN BR/FG...AFT 25/08Z LCL MVFR BR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KOBE THRU THE PD. CIGS: W OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH LCL VLFR AOB FL004...BTWN 25/15Z-24/17Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030...AFT 25/17Z VFR. E OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING VFR WITH PDS OF MVFR BTWN FL010-020...AFT BTWN 24/15Z VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL COLLAPSE A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL THRU THE DAY. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE THIS MRNG TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THIS AFTN... THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT AREAWIDE...BUILDING UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THU SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THU THROUGH FRI MORNING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET SUN AND 2 TO 4 FEET MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 66 83 65 / 10 10 30 40 MCO 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 30 40 MLB 80 69 83 69 / 10 20 50 50 VRB 81 69 85 66 / 20 20 50 50 LEE 84 64 85 70 / 10 10 30 30 SFB 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 40 40 ORL 84 66 85 70 / 10 10 30 40 FPR 81 69 84 68 / 20 20 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT... H100-H70 EXTENDING BTWN THE MID ATLC COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK/FL STRAITS WILL PUSH SEAWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PREVAILING MID/UPR LVL ZONAL WIND PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES... A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL WILL COLLAPSE...ALLOWING LOW/MID LVL WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW. ALOFT...MID LVL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GOMEX WILL PUSH A VERY STABLE H85-H70 THERMAL RIDGE INTO CENTRAL FL...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE LYR...RANGING FROM ARND 3.0C/KM OVERHEAD TO BLOW 2.0C/KM OVER THE NE GOMEX WITH H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-10C BLANKETING ITS ERN HALF. VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT WILL CONTINUE WHILE H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 50-60PCT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU THE DAY. DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED TO THE S/E ARE THE REMNANT MOISTURE BAND ASSCD WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THRU THE FL PENINSULA ON MON. RUC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING AS MID LVL VORTICITY IS LIMITED WHILE THE 90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE DEEP S IS NEITHER STRONG ENOUGH NOR CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. EVEN SO... ISOLD SHRAS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR SVRL HRS...LARGELY DUE TO THE LCL INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE...BUT WRLY FLOW ABV H85 HAS KEPT THESE OFFSHORE. STRATUS DECK HAS REFORMED AND WILL REQUIRE A FEW HRS TO BURN OFF. THIS SHOULD OCCUR A LITTLE FASTER TODAY AS SW WINDS ALOFT TAP A SLUG OF RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL AIR OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. SLGT CHC OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST S OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PRECIP OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT WITH GENERAL QPF AOB 0.10" SFC/LOW LVL WINDS BCMG MORE ERLY TODAY ALONG WITH GREATER HEATING POTENTIAL WILL ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE M/U70S ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER SHELF WATERS ALONG WITH THE DVLPG ERLY FLOW. LIGHT SRLY FLOW DVLPG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70S ALONG THE E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THU-FRI NIGHT... LARGE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS MOISTURE NORTH . DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSH RAIN CHANCES TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT FRI. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND INTO FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA. SAT-MON... NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER OF THE U.S. BRINGS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT AND SUN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 MARTIN COUNTY SAT AND THE 70S ON SUN. TUE-WED... DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MON AND LOW 80S TUE. MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TUE MORNING AND LOW/MID 60S WED MORNING. && .AVIATION...THRU 26/12Z SFC WIND: THRU 25/15Z...N/NE AOB 5KTS. BTWN 24/15Z-24/18Z...BCMG E 6-9KTS CONTG THRU 25/03Z. AFT 25/03Z...SE AOB 5KTS. VSBY/WX: THRU 25/15Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR IN BR/FG...AFT 25/08Z LCL MVFR BR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KOBE THRU THE PD. CIGS: W OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH LCL VLFR AOB FL004...BTWN 25/15Z-24/17Z MVFR BTWN FL020-030...AFT 25/17Z VFR. E OF KMLB-KOBE THRU 25/15Z PREVAILING VFR WITH PDS OF MVFR BTWN FL010-020...AFT BTWN 24/15Z VFR. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL COLLAPSE A REMNANT FRONTAL TROF OVER N FL THRU THE DAY. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM A LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE THIS MRNG TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/NE BREEZE THIS AFTN... THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT AREAWIDE...BUILDING UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THU SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FRI AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET THU THROUGH FRI MORNING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE SAT AND SAT EVENING. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET SUN AND 2 TO 4 FEET MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 66 83 65 / 10 10 30 40 MCO 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 30 40 MLB 80 69 83 69 / 10 20 50 50 VRB 81 69 85 66 / 20 20 50 50 LEE 84 64 85 70 / 10 10 30 30 SFB 82 65 85 67 / 10 10 40 40 ORL 84 66 85 70 / 10 10 30 40 FPR 81 69 84 68 / 20 20 50 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 923 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Made some additional tweaks to the forecast this evening. Have upped pops substantially where rain continues to track across portions of southern IN and northern KY. This should quickly push east over the next few hours, giving way to a general lull before the convection currently over MO arrives. The main PV anomaly and associated surface low will pass across portions of Illinois and northern IN. The latest SPC mesoanalysis data shows current convection in MO is already outrunning the better low-level instability, thus the noted weakening trend in the past hour. With the better upper-level forcing and low-level convergence passing to the north near the surface low center, don`t see much reason this convection will remain vigorous into southern IN/northern KY. Therefore, think a broken line of weakening showers with some embedded rumbles of thunder seems probable over southern IN and extreme northern KY. Further south, have trimmed back pops as low-level convergence will be even weaker there and instability will be waning. In fact, much of southern KY will likely remain dry tonight into Wednesday morning. Issued at 601 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Have updated the grids early this evening to account for ongoing trends. Convection continues to blossom in two areas early this evening, one across MO/OK along a synoptic cold front, and another over portions of southeast MO and southern IL in response to increasing isentropic ascent and elevated instability atop a cool airmass in place over the Ohio Valley. There has recently been a report of dime sized hail with this latter activity across southeast MO. The latest hi-res guidance shows this main elevated instability axis remaining mainly off to the west through much of this evening, so convection should continue to spark over southeast MO and western KY and weaken as it moves away from the instability over southern IN and central KY. However, the latest RAP depicts this elevated instability axis working into the southern IN and central KY later on this evening into tonight as the low-level jet veers in response to a PV anomaly ejecting out of the Central Plains. Therefore, have introduced thunder into the forecast for late this evening into the overnight hours, mainly across southern IN and extreme northern KY. Cannot completely rule out some small hail, but think the more robust updrafts capable of hail will remain off to the northwest. Will continue to keep an eye on the second area of convection currently across MO as it will approach the region toward dawn. However, with the surface low passing well to the north, the focused convergence which will be needed to make up for the loss of instability will be passing to the north as well. Will continue to keep up with trends this evening as things unfold. .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 Surface front is now a very slow-moving warm front draped across south-central Kentucky. Isentropic lift is triggered an area of light rain affecting southern Indiana, and just edging into the I-64 corridor in Kentucky. Temps range from the lower/mid 40s along and north of I-64 to the 60s in south central Kentucky. Still looking for the front to lift northward overnight. Low-level jetting will kick up south of the front, with 900 mb winds increasing to 50-55 kt. Precip chances initially confined to the north will spread over the entire area as the night progresses, in response to the front trying to wave back to the south by morning. Will keep POPs in the chance category and QPF fairly light. Temp curve is non-diurnal as we expect only a slight drop this evening, and then rising temps before daybreak as the low-level jet creates more of a mixy boundary layer. Even though a surface wave will scoot past to our north Wednesday morning, the front is oriented parallel to the flow aloft and will really be left behind. Mid-level subsidence should provide a break from any precip, so hourly POPs will be slight chance at best for much of the day. Temps will depend heavily on how much lingering cloud cover we have, and the current forecast of lower 70s is a fairly conservative one. Places that get a decent amount of sunshine could punch well into the 70s Wednesday afternoon. Another wave will take shape over the southern Plains and lift ENE through the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Expect widespread precip with embedded thunder. Strong mid-level winds through a deep layer will not need a lot of help to mix down, which supports the marginal svr wx threat advertised by SPC. The QPF could be fairly substantial in places, as our current grids show rainfall in excess of 1 inch during the night over southern Indiana. Short-fuse nuisance flooding is possible under the heavier pockets of rain. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015 The focus in the long term is on precipitation/temperature trends Thursday then the unseasonably cold period Friday into this upcoming weekend. The synoptic pattern Thursday morning is expected to feature a deepening and digging upper level trough through the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will likely be tracking through southern Indiana into central Ohio with warmer, moist air ahead. Highs Thursday will occur during the morning and are are likely to be mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. However, a very strong cold front will cross through the forecast area over the course of the day. 24.12z data still shows some minor timing differences in how quickly the front passes, but overall, a non-diurnal temperature trend is expected with readings falling into the 40s by afternoon for much of the area. Showers and elevated thunderstorms riding on the nose of the 850 mb moisture transport will likely push across the area early Thursday morning before moving off into Ohio. That leaves the post-frontal rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm associated with the upper level divergence within the right entrance region of the 130 kt jet. There is some weak MUCAPE noted, on the order of 200-400 J/kg. The upper level trough axis is expected to pass through Thursday night, so expecting a quick shut off of precipitation west to east during the evening. Rainfall amounts Thursday 1/3 to 1/2 of an inch look reasonable. Strong Canadian high pressure nosing down out of the northern Plains will bring an anomalously cold air mass to the Ohio Valley for this time of the year on Friday. With the deep upper trough overhead, soundings show favorable, steep low level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5C/km with about 150-200mb of saturation. This could be enough to spark scattered showers across the northern/eastern areas. Thermal profiles would support a rain/snow/sleet pellet mix at times. Plan on highs Friday to be stuck in the low to mid 40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and brisk northwest winds. 850 mb temps bottom out in the -8 to -11C range Friday night, or about 3 standard deviations below normal. Not quite record territory but lows Saturday morning likely to be in the low/mid 20s regionwide. Would not be surprised if the colder, sheltered locations fall into the mid/upper teens. Although the growing season hasn`t fully taken off, those with agricultural interests or sensitive vegetation should take note for the prolonged hard freezing temperatures expected. Below normal temperatures should continue through this upcoming weekend as 850 mb temperatures climb slowly. The upper level flow looks to remain northwesterly or zonal at best. A model consensus of highs in the 40s Saturday then 50s Sunday look reasonable at this time. 24.12z guidance showing another vigorous shortwave trough coming down late Sunday or Monday that could reinforce colder temperatures and bring a chance of precipitation to the area. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015 VFR conditions are expected at the terminals early this morning. A surface frontal boundary across south-central Kentucky will continue to lift northward during the overnight hours. Some VCSH will be possible at KSDF as weakening convection continues to move off to the northeast. Current thinking is that much of the precipitation will pass to the north of KSDF. As the frontal boundary lifts northward overnight, we`ll see winds shift to the southeast and then veer to the southwest toward morning. As we head toward dawn, ceilings are expected to develop downward and look to reach MVFR levels around 25/11-13Z. This MVFR will be short lived as conditions should improve by mid-morning as ceilings recover to VFR levels. The bulk of the day Wednesday continues to look dry with a steady southwesterly wind at all the terminals. The next round of convection will likely impact the TAF sites toward the end of the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........KJD Short Term.....RAS Long Term......ZT Aviation.......MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY. && UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAINTAINING SOME LIGHTNING BUT WEAKENING OVERALL. RUC SFC-750MB STARTING LVLS FOR COMPUTED LI SHOWS INCREASING STABILITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM SEMO INTO SRN IL AND SW IN...LOWEST CHANCE ACROSS WEST KY OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JUST NORTH OF KPOF TO BETWEEN KPAH/KCEY TO NEAR KHOP. TEMPS STILL MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WILL ONLY BE SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RESPITE FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID AFTERNOON ON AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW/FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACH OUR REGION. THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...THE APPROACH OF A SHARP UPSTREAM H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. WITH 1.5-2 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS DIPPING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO COVER ANY TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION THAT MAY ALREADY BE BUDDING DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHICH HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE...WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY AND RATHER MOIST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION. ON FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF A SHARPENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. THESE CHILLY HIGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 5. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE MINUS 10 ISOTHERM AT 850 MB WILL PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS NOW RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL-SCALE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS SE MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COATING OF WET SNOW APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMING VERIFIES. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER MISSOURI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS IF THE FRONTAL TIMING IS FAST ENOUGH. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME RATHER ISOLATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN AHEAD OF IT. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 60S ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN RAIN...THOUGH THE REDUCTIONS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES BY TO THE NW...WINDS WILL VEER IN DIRECTION...GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT. FEWER CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE DAY WED AS A GENERALLY SRLY LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE. NEAR 06Z THU/AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY FOR THE WRN TAF SITES. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088. MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
438 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HEADLINE UPDATE...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF BLOSSOMING PRECIP ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING... BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME OF THE NEW ADVISORY AREA. PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS. MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU. FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ016-017-501- 502. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026>031-040- 051>053-055-057-501-502-505>508. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-538>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GMS NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...GMS LONG TERM...GMS/IR AVIATION...HAS/GMS MARINE...HAS/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS. MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU. FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ501-502. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026-027-029- 507-508. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050-055- 501>506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-538>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GMS NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...GMS LONG TERM...GMS/IR AVIATION...HAS/GMS MARINE...HAS/GMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LEAD ENERGY RESULTED IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS ALLOWED SFC HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. DRY AIR MASS/SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...SSE WINDS OFF LAKE MI HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE 30S) OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN PLAINS. 12Z MODELS STILL INDICATE LEAD ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS NE/KS THIS AFTN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO 2 SFC LOW CENTERS AT 12Z WED...ONE OVER NW MN AND THE SECOND IN THE VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI. FOR THE FCST AREA...THIS SHOULD GENERALLY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD PASS BY TO THE SE OF HERE...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS SNOW AS IT ARRIVES FROM THE S AND SW LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES (PARTICULARLY THE NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY SFC LOW THAN REST OF MODELS) TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF -FZRA CLOSE TO LAKE MI AND FAR ERN PORTION OF CWA AS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MOSTLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT POPS/QPF TONIGHT INTO WED. RESULT IS PCPN SPREADING N AND NE INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. IT`S POSSIBLE THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE OVER THE FAR N AND E FCST AREA UNTIL 12Z WED OR AFTER. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH NORTH TO 0.25 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY 12Z. AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIFT INTO ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS PARTICUALRLY THE NAM AND REG-GEM SHOW A SECONDARY MAX OF PCPN OVER NW MQT COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING IN RESPONSE TO REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FGEN/DEFORMATION SO HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM .30 INCH OR MORE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH .25 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THIS LINE. VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND HEALTHY ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON 290K SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT PCPN RATES DURING PEAK FORCING WHICH REACHES THE WI BORDER IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL AROUND 750MB...SHORT DURATION OF STRONG FORCING (3-6 HRS) AND LOWER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1 MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING ADVY LEVEL. QPF AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH SLR OF 10:1 RESULTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA STAYING BTWN 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WILL JUST CONTINUE THE SPS AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MQT-BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SPS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FM WEST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST ALLOWIN FOR DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER THE NW CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY 12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR (ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY (25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT). AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH. FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL -SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N MN AND S LAKE MI WILL MERGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT E ACROSS ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE DAY AT WHILE DEEPENING. A LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL EXIT TO THE SE THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW N GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY N AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A LOW OVER MANITOBA ON THURSDAY TO BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO S MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SWING ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS NEARING 25KTS OUT OF THE SW TO W WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND LINGERING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1209 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LEAD ENERGY RESULTED IN CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS ALLOWED SFC HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. DRY AIR MASS/SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE RIDGE HAS RESULTED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TODAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WELL TO THE EAST...SSE WINDS OFF LAKE MI HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE 30S) OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS HAVE BEEN OVER THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND WRN PLAINS. 12Z MODELS STILL INDICATE LEAD ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS NE/KS THIS AFTN TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THIS WILL LEAD TO 2 SFC LOW CENTERS AT 12Z WED...ONE OVER NW MN AND THE SECOND IN THE VCNTY OF SRN LAKE MI. FOR THE FCST AREA...THIS SHOULD GENERALLY MEAN THAT THE HEAVIEST PCPN WOULD PASS BY TO THE SE OF HERE...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS SNOW AS IT ARRIVES FROM THE S AND SW LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES (PARTICULARLY THE NAM...WHICH SHOWS A FARTHER NORTH PLACEMENT OF SECONDARY SFC LOW THAN REST OF MODELS) TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF -FZRA CLOSE TO LAKE MI AND FAR ERN PORTION OF CWA AS ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE MOSTLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE TO CONSTRUCT POPS/QPF TONIGHT INTO WED. RESULT IS PCPN SPREADING N AND NE INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z. IT`S POSSIBLE THE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE OVER THE FAR N AND E FCST AREA UNTIL 12Z WED OR AFTER. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT QPF RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH NORTH TO 0.25 INCHES OVER SRN MNM COUNTY BY 12Z. AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN WILL LIFT INTO ERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE MODELS PARTICUALRLY THE NAM AND REG-GEM SHOW A SECONDARY MAX OF PCPN OVER NW MQT COUNTY AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS AREA LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING IN RESPONSE TO REGION OF ENHANCED MID-LVL FGEN/DEFORMATION SO HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP QPF AMOUNTS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. LOOKING AT TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE EVENT...AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM .30 INCH OR MORE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY TO IRON MOUNTAIN...WITH .25 INCH OR LESS WEST OF THIS LINE. VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND HEALTHY ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED ON 290K SFC SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT PCPN RATES DURING PEAK FORCING WHICH REACHES THE WI BORDER IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS OF 3-4G/KG ARE AVBL AROUND 750MB...SHORT DURATION OF STRONG FORCING (3-6 HRS) AND LOWER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1 MAKE FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REACHING ADVY LEVEL. QPF AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH SLR OF 10:1 RESULTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND ERN CWA STAYING BTWN 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SINCE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA WILL JUST CONTINUE THE SPS AND EXPAND TO INCLUDE MQT-BARAGA AND DICKINSON COUNTIES. WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW AND SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE IN SPS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FM WEST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS NEG-TILT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST ALLOWIN FOR DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO UPPER MI. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE OF LOW COULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS OVER THE NW CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG THIS TROUGH (WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A MIX INITIALLY)...LARGELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE SURFACE-850MB TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM -6C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO -11C BY 12Z AND -17C BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE EFFECT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD (WESTERLY AT 00Z THURSDAY AND N-NNW BY 12Z THURSDAY)...LIMITING THE FOCUS OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERLY WIND UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR (ESSENTIALLY AROUND GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE COUNTIES). WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS VEER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BEST LAKE ENHANCED QPF OVER THE KEWEENAW IN THE EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW RATIOS WILL START UP AT OR BELOW 10-1 BEFORE TRENDING UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA AND PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE DGZ. ALL IN ALL...HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THOSE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES (AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 INCHES OVER THE PORKIES). IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY ON THURSDAY (25-30KTS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR)...WHICH WITH THE FLUFFIER NATURE OF THE SNOW BY THAT TIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. AS DRY AIR FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA NOSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND WILL START LOWERING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE TREND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO OFFSET THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT DON/T EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT (ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ON THURSDAY NIGHT). AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SATURDAY/S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THEN EITHER THROUGH ONTARIO OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEY JUST VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WAVE DIVES FARTHER SOUTH AND THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYS TO THE NORTH. FEEL CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING TO SHOW MORE DETAIL IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP POPS STILL IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE ARE HINTS OF A SECONDARY WAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIP TYPE STILL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE INITIAL WAVE SHOULD FALL AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR TURN TO RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE. THAT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION AND SWITCHES ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE SHORTWAVES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO NOSE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR ALOFT TO WORK INTO THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY (925MB TEMPS RISING TO AT LEAST 6C). THAT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE LAST DAY OF MARCH (NORMAL IS 40-45). LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A STRONGER WAVE MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF HEAVIER PCPN BUT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRES LIFTS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH KIWD BY 10Z AND KCMX BY 14Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK UP TO MVFR BY LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. KSAW HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW CLOSER TO TRACK OF SFC LOW SO EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO LIFR SHORTLY AFT 12Z AND THEN IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY E. A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MI WED EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL -SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNDER 20 KT TONIGHT INTO WED AS LOW PRES TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE LAKE BTWN ONE LOW PRES CENTER MOVING E TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE OTHER LIFTING NE THRU LWR MI INTO ONTARIO. THE TROF WILL DROP S OF THE LAKE WED NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS AND MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-30KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...AND IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES ARRIVES OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRES DROPS SE FM MANITOBA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS TO 25 KT WL SHIFT W-NW SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND TROF PASSAGE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
426 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL. THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM. GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS. TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST. THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST...TAPERING OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT MSP AND CONTINUING THROUGH 09-12Z AT EAU AND RNH. BEHIND THE SNOW...IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS AMPLE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KMSP...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 06Z...BUT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND 17Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN 17Z-01Z. GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS EARLY. THU...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NNW 15G25 KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW IN THE AFTN. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064. WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ025>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...ADL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015 .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 All convection has ended across the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas for tonight. There will be brief break in the weather tonight before more active weather returns Wednesday. Near term forecast has been updated to reflect precipitation and sky cover trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern. Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming, mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this afternoon and early this evening. ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3 km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero), again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough. The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more limited instability. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A second shortwave, more positively tilted, will make it`s way through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected. Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa. Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still ironing out the details. Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend develops late in the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1124 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 Pilots can expect VFR conditions the remainder of tonight with more active weather returning Wednesday. Surface winds will become light and variable overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon bringing areas of MVFR conditions. Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate into Wednesday night as a cold front moves across the region and widespread rainfall continues. Widespread MVFR to areas if IFR conditions can be expected Wednesday evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLOOD WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-094>098-102>106. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Foster SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
329 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT START MOVING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED RIGHT NEAR A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND LAUREL SOUTHEASTWARD TO FORT SMITH AND SHERIDAN. THAT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACTED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED EVEN IN BILLINGS AS OF 3 AM MDT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY NEVER DID MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS LIKE WE HAD EXPECTED...LEAVING RED LODGE AND COMPANY WITH MUCH LESS SNOW THAN FORECAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR CAPTURES THIS SIGNAL WELL AND SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND SO WE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. WE DID DECIDE TO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN AROUND BILLINGS THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT MOISTURE...AND A WIND FIELD THAT WILL WEAKEN AND LIKELY TURN BACK LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHES OUT. FOR TODAY...WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCE...BUT WE DECIDED TO CAP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN MOST LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS UNTIL NOON MDT SINCE THEY WILL CATCH A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. WE ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F TODAY...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS THAT LOWER CLOUD DECK TO NOT BREAK OVER MILES CITY UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL LATER IN BAKER...SO FORECAST HIGHS IN BAKER ARE BELOW MOST 00 UTC GUIDANCE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S F. TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT...TAKING A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY...THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT IS GOING TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SO WE HAVE LINGERED A LOW- END CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY THERE. HOWEVER...THE DRYING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SHOWN IN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ENOUGH FOR US TO SWITCH TO A DRY FORECAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHERE A WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE WITH HIGHS AGAIN ABOVE 60 F IN MANY AREAS PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. 700MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +2C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE PER PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BOTH WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER IS NOW SHOWING A SHARPER TROF WITH LESS SPLITTING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND BUT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER POST FRONTAL COOLING. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG PREFRONTAL WARMING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN TO THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DAY IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS AND POPS...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT IN OUR NW BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE WITH EXPECTATION OF A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON FROPA. COULD SEE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND BROADUS. WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 70F ON MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT US NEXT TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE ENERGY WITHOUT MUCH AMPLITUDE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND. JKL && .AVIATION... A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM K3HT-KBIL-KSHR WILL PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THRU AROUND 12Z. A STEADY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL THEN OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED FOG THRU AROUND 15Z IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED NIGHTTIME PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING KBIL. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH 18Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE MTNS AND AREAS MAINLY EAST OF KBIL TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 039/063 043/073 049/073 040/065 041/070 045/065 2/W 21/N 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W LVM 050 037/062 042/072 049/067 037/065 040/068 042/058 2/W 21/N 10/N 02/W 21/B 11/B 24/W HDN 054 032/064 037/074 040/074 035/066 035/072 039/068 2/W 21/E 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W MLS 049 030/057 038/070 041/074 034/063 037/069 038/067 1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W 4BQ 048 029/057 036/070 040/076 035/064 036/070 039/069 1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W BHK 039 025/048 031/064 037/073 033/061 033/066 037/066 1/E 32/W 21/E 02/W 20/U 00/U 12/W SHR 047 031/058 038/070 039/076 035/065 035/070 038/069 3/W 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ZONE 98. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR AND NERN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55 SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS. TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AROUND 07Z WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 10Z. WITH THE FRONT...SOME LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME... THOUGH...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3500 FEET AGL WITH LITTLE OR NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND WILL SWITCH TO 330-360 AND INCREASE TO 15-20G25-30KT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...SPRINGER FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 WILL SCALE OFF ANOTHER 4 COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SNOW ENDING NORTH CENTRAL. SNOW CONTINUES OVER MY NORTHEAST SO WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN AN ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS WRAP PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST AND PREDOMINATELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06-07 UTC. THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT ARE WET AND SLUSHY ROADS ICING UP AS SUB- FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS OF 2 UTC. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...THIS TIME FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22 UTC...BLENDED TO THE 18-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BAND SO FAR EARLY THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMARE AND SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY: AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN THE WEST. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN SNOW AT KJMS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. PARTIAL CLEARING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 10-14Z SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TREND VFR FOR KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004- 005. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
335 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MILDER FLOW OF AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ON THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...AND CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG LLJ OVER SRN IN WILL REACH CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z AND THE WESTERN FINGERLAKES BY 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER 11Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND HAVE COLLABORATED A FZRA ADVISORY FOR CAMBRIA SOMERSET BEDFORD AND BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE REST OF THESE AERAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. POTENT SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/ EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SHARPLY BY THIS EVENING...AS LLJ JET RACES INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND AREA REMAINS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK SFC TO 850 MB RIDGING. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER 12Z THU AS A WAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN PA. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THU EVENING. MAXES WILL BE QUITE MILD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ024-025-033- 034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
256 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IR STLT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM IL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD FROM TN/KY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. RADAR SHOWS PCPN STARTING TO DEVELOP/EXPAND NEWD OVER CENTRAL OH AND NRN WV. LATEST HRRR BRINGS THIS PCPN INTO THE WRN AIRSPACE/ZOB SECTOR BTWN 12-15Z...WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN SFC TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BFD WHICH...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT JST /DESPITE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF PCPN/ WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 32F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH NEXT INTERMEDIATE UPDATE AT 09Z. THE OTHER AVN CONCERN WILL BE LLWS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN TAFS. -RA WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRSPACE BTWN 15-18Z WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD TREND TO THE DOWNSIDE AFT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FCST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM IN MOST AREAS BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES BUT LATEST NAM INDICATES POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING - BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1250 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA...AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF OF THE NJ COAST. FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...AND APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND CHC OF LGT PRECIP TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATE THE CHC OF LGT OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BTWN 09Z- 12Z ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SFC TEMPS ARND FREEZING INDICATE SOME RISK OF FZRA IN THIS AREA FOR THE AM COMMUTE. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY ATTM. IN FACT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVLS WILL WARM BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES. AS HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE NJ COAST A DEVELOPING SERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DWPTS. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP/RAP SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 25-30F OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... POTENT SHORTWAVE...OVR MISSOURI THIS EVENING...WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA ARND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND MFLUX ALONG ASSOC LL JET WILL PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING LATE AM/EARLY AFTN. 12Z GEFS SHOWS POSITIVE 850MB MFLUX ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA OF 4-5SD. BASED ON SREF/GEFS OUTPUT...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE SE AND FURTHER AWAY FROM TRACK OF SHORTWAVE. THE CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC FORCING LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR POCKETS OF FZRA THRU ARND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTNS. AN EXAMINATION OF LATEST SFC WET BULB TEMPS FROM THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SUGGEST ANY POCKETS OF FZRA WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOMERSET NEWRD INTO THE NC MTNS BTWN 12Z-15Z. WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY AREAL EXTENT OF ANY FZRA NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL WILL REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS. THUS...EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE A COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LGT RAIN. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TO BTWN 40-45F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY EXEPTION TO THE COOLNESS MAY BE WEST OF THE MTNS ARND CONFLUENCE...WHERE READINGS COULD APPROACH 60F AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD NWD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROF INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTER U.S. OVERALL HOWEVER...THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE DEVELOPING TROF WILL BRING A WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO ACROSS PA WED NGT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ANOTHER TUMBLE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER RETURN TO CHILLY TEMPS AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 160-190 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING CIG REDUCTIONS BACK INTO KJST /AND SPREADING TOWARD OTHER TERMINALS IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA/ BY 12Z. A COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE WARM FRONT ON WED...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE NW HALF OF CWA WITH SHOWERS IMPACTING SE HALF. CIGS/VSBYS IN MOST LOCALES WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF WED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE LOWER SUSQ SITES OF KMDT-KLNS. WINDS ALSO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...ESP IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WED MORNING...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE PCPN COULD MOVE IN BEFORE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO REBOUND ABOVE FREEZING - BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED ICING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND ONLY MENTIONED IN THE KJST TAF DUE TO THIS AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP THERE AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO TREND LOWER LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE HEADING INTO THU...WITH IFR CIGS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. OUTLOOK... THU...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH RA/SN SHOWERS WEST AND NW. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST WITH SCHC OF -SHRA. SUN...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...DEVOIR/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS. IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 75 57 64 34 / 10 20 100 20 CLARKSVILLE 72 54 57 32 / 10 40 90 20 CROSSVILLE 71 55 67 32 / 10 20 100 30 COLUMBIA 76 58 65 36 / 10 20 90 20 LAWRENCEBURG 76 57 66 38 / 10 20 80 20 WAVERLY 74 55 59 33 / 10 30 90 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
144 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE BORDER AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 830 PM EDT TUESDAY... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE VA/NC BORDER...WESTWARD ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT...WAS RESULTING IN AN AREA A LIGHT RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH UPWARDS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE FROM THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS SOUTH INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE MODELS SUGGEST ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS...TO NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S...BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO 50 SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MAY SEE A COUPLE POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD DAWN ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...BUT ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT...IF ANY...AND WILL BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECT AS THE GROUND IS TOO WARM. WHILE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTH...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS WESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF ADVECTING WARMTH UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... REMNANT WEDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT EARLY THU. ALL OF THE MODELS BROADBRUSH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH LOW QPF...GENERALLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS THROUGH 18Z THU. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ALL OF THE APPRECIABLE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...ACTUALLY EVEN FURTHER WEST ACROSS OH/KY/TN AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S AND 70S AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR +12C. SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO AS YESTERDAY BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORS AND IN LIGHT OF AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING FOR SOME INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND BETTER FORCING HAS SLOWED ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUS...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE REMOVED FROM THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODEST CAPES ARE FORECAST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG ON MOST MODELS...AND ONLY IN A NARROW WINDOW FROM AROUND 18Z-21Z. THE ACTUAL FRONT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFT 00Z IN THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR THUNDER...BUT EVEN LESS SUPPORT THAN YESTERDAY FROM MY VIEWPOINT FOR ANYTHING SEVERE. THERE IS NO LLF EVIDENT IN COINCIDENCE WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS...SO WILL CONTINUE NOT TO MENTION SEVERE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. FOR FRIDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY. THIS WILL DELAY THE POSSIBILITY OF COMBINING FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THUS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS EARLY FRIDAY...THE THREAT FURTHER EAST APPEARS VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...1/2 INCH OR LESS...ARE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER BY EARLY FRIDAY FROM UPSLOPE -SHSN. A FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH AREAS AS FAR EAST AS BATH...MONTGOMERY...WATAUGA COUNTIES BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN THE PLUNGE TOWARD -15C READINGS BY EARLY SAT...BUT AGAIN...SLIGHTLY LESS IMPACT/SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND FALLING/COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE A RUDE AWAKENING THAT WINTER IS NOT YET FINISHED...COMPARED TO RECENT MILD/WARM DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... BEGINNING VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE PARENT ARCTIC/CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN SINCE AROUND MARCH 6TH. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING. SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 32F IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...30S BULK OF THE CWA...40S PIEDMONT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SLATED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS OF INTEREST AS NOW THE CANADIAN HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE GFS IN ADVERTISING A SMALL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS VARIED FROM RUN-TO-RUN ON THE GFS FROM GA/SC TO OVER OUR REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN FOCUS MORE ON EAST TN/WESTERN NC...CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. THERE WILL ALSO BE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL WITH THE CLIPPER AS WELL. THE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED COMPELS ME TO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND THROUGH SW VA/NW NC INTO SAT...ENDING BY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE FRI-SAT EVENT. BEYOND THAT...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SHORT WAVE...VARYING FROM VERY STRONG ON THE GFS TO VERY WEAK ON THE ECMWF TRACKING INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE LOW CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE WEST MONDAY...NOT TO THE DEGREE THE GFS WOULD ADVERTISE AT THIS POINT. WILL EVALUATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH LATER MODELS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AS OF YET. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING PRODUCING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WAS ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA INTO KENTUCKY. CONVERGENT FLOW VCNTY OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS GRADUALLY MOISTENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...CIGS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET TIME OF ANY MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL 09Z/5AM. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. TRENDED THE CIGS UPWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THEN ENTIRE AREA WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CEILINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VFR RETURNS TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY WHILE UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 135 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... MULTIPLE SENSORS AT THE KDAN AUTOMATED OBSERVATION UNIT HAVE MALFUNCTIONED. THE DEW POINT WAS NOT BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME. TECHNICHIANS WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE OUTAGE THIS MORNING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...NF/PM SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...AMS/RAB AVIATION...AMS/PM EQUIPMENT...AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE METRO AREA. THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS PUSHING SOUTH. SO EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-25. HAVE ALREADY INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TODAY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TOO. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 2 INCHES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 1 INCH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES WITH IT THRU LATE AFTN. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW MAINLY NLY BEHIND THE FNT. IN THE MTNS WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THRU MIDDAY HOWEVER BY AFTN SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS AS MID LVL DESCENT DVLPS. THUS SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. OVER NERN CO FCST IS MORE COMPLICATED. WITH NLY LOW LVL FLOW AREAS CLOSER TO THE WY BORDER MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS WHILE AREAS FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE SEE THE BEST CHC. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS AS WELL IN THE AFTN. ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE IS LYR OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO ERODE AS THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA INITIALLY BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. MEANWHILE WET BULB ZEROS SUGGEST PCPN MAY FALL MOSTLY AS SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OVER THE SRN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF DENVER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP TONIGHT DUE TO HOUR TO HOUR INCONSISTENCIES WITH WITH REGARDS TO PCPN POTENTIAL. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO HOWEVER THE FAR NERN CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S WHERE PCPN POTENTIAL AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS. FOR TONIGHT PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING IN THE MTNS...SRN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO DECREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AND UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST IS THE CAUSE. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY...THEN NORMAL PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON FRIDAY THAN NORMAL DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME AROUND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO CAPE PROGGED OVER THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW THAT THERE IS A TINY BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE GFS FOR LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE"S IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 4-7 C OVER TODAY`S HIGHS. FRIDAY`S READINGS ARE ANOTHER 3-6 C WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING OVER COLORADO AND WEAKENING ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GFS KEEPS RIDGING. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS THING PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY...WITH MORE RIDGING AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS WAY MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALL FOUR DAYS COMPARED TO THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF. REALLY THERE IS LITTLE GOING ON AND GFS HAS SOME MINOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HERE AND THERE WITH NOTHING ON THE ECMWF. WILL GO WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 17Z TO 18Z AND THEN IMPROVE. IT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ALSO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. CEILINGS WILL FALL BELOW 2000 FEET UNDER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH 00Z AND THEN SWITCH SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MEIER SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SE PA AND INTO THE DELMARVA SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND BASED ON LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE...WILL PUSH BACK START TIME OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THESE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A MET/MAV MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR HIGHS...AVERAGING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE CWA TONIGHT...AND WITH STRONGER LIFT RIGHT AHEAD OF IT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF OVERRUNNING/RAIN FOR THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING...FOG EXPECTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THE NIGHT NON-DIURNAL WITH WAA. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH LIFT SUPPLIED BY A LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS LIFT...COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES OF THUNDER WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MAV/MET MOS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPS...SO USED A BLEND AGAIN. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE ADVECTION OF DEWPOINTS OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NEARBY WATER SURFACE TEMPS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW PRECEDES THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH...AND REMAIN WEAK FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARDS BEFORE STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS LIKELY...FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CAPE FORECAST TO STILL BE PRESENT...SO ISO THUNDER DURING THE EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WESTERN US RIDGING BUILDS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN SUN NIGHT BEFORE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LAGGING UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER JET ENERGY...AND WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING...IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING POST-FRONTAL RAIN BANDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST/TAPER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. BASED ON SLOWER MODEL TRENDS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT...PARTICULARLY FOR LI/CT. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS (WEAKER SIGNAL IN GEFS)...SEEN IN 00Z OPERATIONAL GEM...WITH HINTS OF IT AT 84 HRS IN 00Z NAM. LOCATION OF ANY INVERTED TROUGH WOULD BE KEY TO WHERE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY WOULD RESIDE DURING THIS TIME...BUT EVEN WITHOUT AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOCUS...MID- LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL INSTABILITY WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY. HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPER OF LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CAA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL. THEREAFTER...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND DRYING BUT COOL CONDS. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND PIVOTS THROUGH THE NE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. CEILINGS DECREASE TO 3500-6000FT AFTER 19Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY TEMPO -RA THAT OCCURS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z THU. RA BECOMES PREVAILING THEREAFTER...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN LIFR...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LLWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 50 KT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z. LLWS BETWEEN 02Z- 07Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. LLWS BETWEEN 03Z- 08Z THU...WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY -SHRA. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY -SHSN. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. N-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .SUNDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA KEEPS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT POSSIBLY ON SOME OF THE OTHER WATERS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL PROBABLY BUILD UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING A LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING SCA ATTM. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INITIAL DROP IN WIND SPEEDS BEFORE THEY PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE AT NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ON THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDE OF HIGH SOUTHERLY SWELLS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTY NW FLOW...CAA...AND RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. && .HYDROLOGY... 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...JC/MPS SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...JMC/JP MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
945 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 945 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE SFC HIGH TO DRIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NY AND PA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NEARLY CALM...A S/SE BREEZE WILL COMMENCE DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF THE RETREATING ANTICYCLONE...AND THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CNTRL ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST 12Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN WESTERN AREAS BY 20Z...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 21Z...AND GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 21Z-22Z. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION. THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS TODAY AND CONTINUING AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST. FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED. AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD. ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG WAVE PASSES ALOFT. THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE PASSES ALOFT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...JP/MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST. FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED. AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD. ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG WAVE PASSES ALOFT. THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/... ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE PASSES ALOFT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...JP VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1044 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY. THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MIX OUT BY AROUND 14Z...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ENGAGING DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY. THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MIX OUT BY AROUND 14Z...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ENGAGING DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
637 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HEADLINE UPDATE...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH AND EAST AND NOW INCLUDES THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREAS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW A CONTINUED TRAJECTORY OF BLOSSOMING PRECIP ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING... BY A FEW DEGREES IN SOME OF THE NEW ADVISORY AREA. PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE IS WEDGED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS LED TO OVERRUNNING AND A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM S MI TO CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WV OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAD TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND WRFARW HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. QUESTION EXISTS HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRAVEL BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING SFC TEMPS AND RADAR AND EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WEDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 40S BUT AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 50S TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WEDGE WILL KEEP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BULK OF THE DAY THU LOOKS RELATIVELY WARM/DRY...ALBEIT W/ A LARGE WAA REGION OVERHEAD DURING THAT TIME. VERY LIGHT AND POORLY ORGANIZED SHOWERS CAN CERTAINLY DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SUCH A REGION BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THU MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR EARLY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. TO START THE DAY...ROUNDING THE OUTER REACHES OF AN OFFSHORE HIGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SW-TO-NE COINCIDENT W/ A LOW LEVEL JET MAX. AS THIS FEATURE GETS BUMPED OFF THE COAST...SOME SINKING AIR...DEPARTING CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON HEADING INTO THE LATE MRNG/AFTN HRS. MEANWHILE...TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF AN INTENSIFYING AND SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO/TENN RVR VLY. THIS FIRST FEATURE WILL BE A LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDING OVER THE OHIO VLY AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR NORTH...STAYING NORTH AND ALLOWING WARM AIR TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTN/EVE. A DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WELL WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NRN MS VLY AND STRENGTHEN THE PRECIP ACROSS AREAS JUST AFFECTED BY THE FIRST FEATURE. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE APLCNS LATER THAT EVE...NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION UNTIL FRI. THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LATE THU NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS FRI. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THAT POINT...THOUGH LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND NOCTURNAL JET ACTIVITY MAY MAKE UP FOR IT IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS W/ HEAVIER LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WILL KEEP A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...W/ A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DAYTIME POPS FOR THU. FRI WILL BE ANOTHER USHERING-IN OF CAA W/ DRIER AIR AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NW WINDS. A NOTICEABLE TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR FROM THU GOING INTO FRI W/ THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU...AS TEMPS DROP FROM THE 70S THU AFTN TO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS BARELY REACH THE 50 DEG MARK ON FRI...W/ LOWS FRI NIGHT BACK TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF SNOW MIXING IN W/ THE ISOLATED BATCHES ON FRI W/ THE STRONG PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORT OVERHEAD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A RETURN FLOW...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND CIGS WILL LOWER REACHING MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING. A 40KT LLJ MAY PRODUCE LLWS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...SOME IFR LATE WED NIGHT. SOME IMRVMNT XPCTD THU MRNG INTO THE AFTN...THEN DEGRADING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND OVRNGT AHD OF A CD FNT. RA XPCTD THU AFTN/OVRNGT W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN IMPRVG AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... S WINDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY NORTH OF DRUM POINT. S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE. SCA CONDS XPCTD THU AHD OF A CD FNT...W/ ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...THEN TURNING TO THE NW AFTR MDNGT THU W/ WINDS CONTINUING ABV SCA VALUES INTO FRI MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO ELEVATE...AND TIDAL ANOMALIES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER THURSDAY EVENING AND A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001. MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ003>006-011- 013-014-016>018-501>508. VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ026>031-040- 051>055-057-501-502-505>508. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR WVZ050>053-055- 501>506. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>533-538>541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HAS SHORT TERM...GMS LONG TERM...GMS AVIATION...HAS/GMS MARINE...HAS/GMS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL. THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM. GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS. TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST. THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KTS ACROSS MN WILL QUICKLY PUSH LIFR VIS/CIGS OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HRRR TIMING HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD ON IMPROVEMENTS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW IT FOR TIMING IMPROVEMENTS INTO TAFS. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TIMING CHANGES FROM EXISTING TAFS. VFR CIGS ARE WORKING INTO WRN MN...BUT THEY ARE QUICKLY GETTING FILLED BACK IN BY MVFR CLOUDS DIVING SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SO ANY VFR CIGS WILL BE SHORT LIVED OUTSIDE OF RWF. BKN-OVC 015-025 CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP AT AXN. PRECIP TODAY WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MPX TERMINALS...THOUGH WRAP AROUND PRECIP BAND WILL GET CLOSE TO AXN THIS MORNING. KMSP...LIFR CONDS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE RIGHT AROUND 12Z. MAY HAVE SOME VFR CONDS BRIEFLY THROUGH 14Z...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK IN AS WE GET A BKN-OVC STATOCU DECK GOING WITH A LITTLE MIXING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST...WITH SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES LIKELY BEFORE DIRECTION BECOMES MORE 270 AROUND 14Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 10-15 KTS. FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB. SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY`S TO MATCH THE TRENDS BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /10/ && .AVIATION... EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS STILL PRESENT CURRENTLY TO MIX OUT INTO VFR WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /10/EC/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL- CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/ LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY./17/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 78 58 72 39 / 6 7 70 29 MERIDIAN 77 59 76 42 / 12 7 59 43 VICKSBURG 78 59 69 40 / 5 4 69 19 HATTIESBURG 78 59 76 44 / 12 7 63 34 NATCHEZ 76 60 71 41 / 5 4 70 26 GREENVILLE 76 57 65 39 / 5 17 62 14 GREENWOOD 78 58 67 37 / 5 10 61 22 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
513 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRINGS A SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING...STRATUS HAS BEEN A BIGGER CONCERN THAN FOG AS WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG CONFINED TO THE PINE BELT REGION. RECENT AREA RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW JUXTAPOSED BY DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WELL- CAPPED AIRMASS. BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION...HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH STRATOCUMULUS COVERAGE...BUT STILL EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEG F WHERE CLOUD BREAKS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN BUT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS... WITH EXPLICIT WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING PERHAPS MORE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW NOT EXPECTING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR GUIDANCE FOR SIGNS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW. /EC/ LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUNDS OF CIPS SHOWS LOWER CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST. HOWEVER SOME OF THE LOWER END ENSEMBLES TRIES TO PUT SOME LOWS AROUND 30 IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL RISE FROM THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY TO THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK WE WILL GET BACK TO A MILDER SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR MONDAY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTION. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM AND GFS TRIES TO OPEN UP A CLOSED LOW OVER BAJA AS A SHORT WAVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO MODEL BRINGS IN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE IT OPENS UP THE BAJA LOW AND MOVES IT SOUTH OVER BAJA. EITHER WAY WE WILL GET SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A DECENT DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUES OUR MILD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY./17/ && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 79 58 72 39 / 6 7 70 29 MERIDIAN 78 59 76 42 / 12 7 59 43 VICKSBURG 79 59 69 40 / 5 4 69 43 HATTIESBURG79 59 76 44 / 12 7 63 34 NATCHEZ 77 60 71 41 / 5 4 70 26 GREENVILLE 77 57 65 39 / 5 17 62 14 GREENWOOD 79 58 67 37 / 5 10 61 22 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ EC/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
905 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS WITH CONVECTIVE LOOKING SIGNATURES ON PRECIPITATION COMING OFF THE SNOWY MOUNTAINS NORTH OF BILLINGS. INCREASED POPS SOME OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BIG HORNS REGION CONTINUES WITH THE ADVISORY HIGHLIGHT THROUGH NOON IN GOOD SHAPE. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS COVERED WELL FOR NOW. BT && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT START MOVING EASTWARD ALONG WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DURING THE NIGHT...CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTED RIGHT NEAR A LINE FROM HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS AND LAUREL SOUTHEASTWARD TO FORT SMITH AND SHERIDAN. THAT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACTED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED EVEN IN BILLINGS AS OF 3 AM MDT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY NEVER DID MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS LIKE WE HAD EXPECTED...LEAVING RED LODGE AND COMPANY WITH MUCH LESS SNOW THAN FORECAST. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR CAPTURES THIS SIGNAL WELL AND SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND SO WE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. WE DID DECIDE TO CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN AROUND BILLINGS THROUGH MID MORNING IN RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT MOISTURE...AND A WIND FIELD THAT WILL WEAKEN AND LIKELY TURN BACK LIGHT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHES OUT. FOR TODAY...WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCE...BUT WE DECIDED TO CAP POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN MOST LOWER-ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST BIGHORN MOUNTAINS UNTIL NOON MDT SINCE THEY WILL CATCH A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING. WE ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S F TODAY...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS /LOW CLOUDS/ OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN MT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS THAT LOWER CLOUD DECK TO NOT BREAK OVER MILES CITY UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOT UNTIL LATER IN BAKER...SO FORECAST HIGHS IN BAKER ARE BELOW MOST 00 UTC GUIDANCE...AND IN THE UPPER 30S F. TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT...TAKING A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. THURSDAY...THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT WARM FRONT IS GOING TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...SO WE HAVE LINGERED A LOW- END CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY THERE. HOWEVER...THE DRYING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SHOWN IN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ENOUGH FOR US TO SWITCH TO A DRY FORECAST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...WHERE A WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE WITH HIGHS AGAIN ABOVE 60 F IN MANY AREAS PER THE 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL SLIDE EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER OUR AREA. 700MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +2C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE PER PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY BOTH WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER IS NOW SHOWING A SHARPER TROF WITH LESS SPLITTING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND BUT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER POST FRONTAL COOLING. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING WOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG PREFRONTAL WARMING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN TO THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS DAY IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS AND POPS...HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS A BIT IN OUR NW BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE WITH EXPECTATION OF A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON FROPA. COULD SEE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AT SUCH PLACES AS SHERIDAN AND BROADUS. WILL KEEP POPS BROADBRUSHED AT ISOLD TO SCATTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 70F ON MONDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT US NEXT TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE ENERGY WITHOUT MUCH AMPLITUDE...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH WIND. JKL && .AVIATION... AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM KBIL TO KSHR AND LOCATIONS EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHY FOG LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR LOCALLY THAT WILL LIFT OUT BY 17Z. THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. AS CLOUDS BREAK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF A MILES CITY TO BROADUS LINE. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 039/063 043/073 049/073 040/065 041/070 045/065 3/W 21/N 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W LVM 050 037/062 042/072 049/067 037/065 040/068 042/058 2/W 21/N 10/N 02/W 21/B 11/B 24/W HDN 054 032/064 037/074 040/074 035/066 035/072 039/068 3/W 21/E 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W MLS 049 030/057 038/070 041/074 034/063 037/069 038/067 1/B 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W 4BQ 048 029/057 036/070 040/076 035/064 036/070 039/069 1/E 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 00/U 12/W BHK 039 025/048 031/064 037/073 033/061 033/066 037/066 1/E 32/W 21/E 02/W 20/U 00/U 12/W SHR 047 031/058 038/070 039/076 035/065 035/070 038/069 4/W 22/W 10/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ZONE 98. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
649 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR AND NERN KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55 SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS. TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OVC018 AT KVTN WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS NEAR 33016G25KT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS TONIGHT. AT KLBF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT -SHRA COULD PASS THE TERMINAL PRIOR TO 18Z. OTHERWISE WINDS 36014G24KT CAN BE EXPECTED 14Z UNTIL 01Z/26TH. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...ROBERG FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF NE MS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE REIGNS OVER THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO KY/MO. THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE QUIET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NRN AR THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO SE MO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS MORE ROBUST FURTHER WEST...WILL PUSH INTO NE AR LATE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NW TN FROM LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM...UNTIL PERHAPS 1 OR 2 AM. AT THAT POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH. SHOULD GET INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH TIMING OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. EXPECT LINE TO NOW BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING WITHIN THE LINE THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALLY WANING BY THAT TIME OF THE NIGHT DUE TO BEING MANY HOURS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL SEE ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURES. IN THOSE AREAS...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT MAY DROP TO 31-32 DEGREES FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT OUT WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. KRM && AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY 5-10 KT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT JBR WHERE EVEN ON STATION THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... 12Z TAFS. && .AVIATION... COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CKV TOWARD 12Z THU. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY AOA 3KFT. AFT 09Z HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVER- SPREAD THE MID-SOUTH...WITH LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CKV. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 10KNTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS. IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
809 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN MOVING TOWARD WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. ON RADAR...THEY SEEM TO BE DISSIPATING. UPDATING TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST FOR A FEW HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACCUMULATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE TIMING OF CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT TODAY...POSSIBILITY OF TSRA APPROACHING DRT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT 1130Z STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WAS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AND MOS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON STRATUS SCATTERING OUT. HOWEVER MOST OF ALL THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS ARE INDICATING CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 18Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS IN THE TAFS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT AUS/SAT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO LATE WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. STRENGTH OF CAP WILL PLAY ROLE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE RIO GRANDE REGION. LATEST HI RES HRRR IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS AFTER 22Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 AT DRT TAF 23Z-03Z FOR TSRA. SHOULD STORMS FORM AND MAKE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THU MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FRONT WILL REACH AUS/DRT TAFS AROUND 09Z-11Z THU AND SAT/SSF TAFS 10Z-12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA/-TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK IS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY DAY BREAK. CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AND SCATTERED OUT AROUND NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S OVER MOST AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEL RIO AND ADJACENT AREAS AS SERRENIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS STORMS DEVELOP AND STEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. IF THESE STORMS DO FORM PER THE MAJORITY OF HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS...THEY MAY LINGER AROUND FOR FEW HOURS. CAN`T RULE OUT STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL AS THEY ENTER DEL RIO GRANDE AREA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED TIME FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS ABOUT 2 AM...ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM 4 TO 6 AM AND EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 7 OR 8 AM THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. SOME OF THE STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. BUT FOR THE MOST PARTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY NOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OVER MOST PLACES. A PLEASANT FRIDAY AND UPCOMING WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 57 66 46 76 / - 40 20 - 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 57 67 45 74 / - 40 30 - 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 68 46 75 / - 40 30 - 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 52 64 43 74 / - 40 10 - 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 59 71 46 77 / 30 30 20 - 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 65 43 75 / - 40 20 - 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 70 43 76 / 10 40 30 - 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 67 45 75 / - 40 30 - 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 61 66 47 74 / - 30 40 - 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 59 68 46 76 / - 40 30 - 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 69 47 75 / 10 30 40 - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE TIMING OF CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT TODAY...POSSIBILITY OF TSRA APPROACHING DRT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT 1130Z STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WAS A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. NAM12 SOUNDINGS AND MOS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC ON STRATUS SCATTERING OUT. HOWEVER MOST OF ALL THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS ARE INDICATING CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 18Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS IN THE TAFS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT AUS/SAT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MEXICO LATE WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. STRENGTH OF CAP WILL PLAY ROLE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY MOVES...POTENTIALY IMPACTING THE RIO GRANDE REGION. LATEST HI RES HRRR IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT LOCATIONS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS AFTER 22Z. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 AT DRT TAF 23Z-03Z FOR TSRA. SHOULD STORMS FORM AND MAKE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THU MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FRONT WILL REACH AUS/DRT TAFS AROUND 09Z-11Z THU AND SAT/SSF TAFS 10Z-12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. A BAND OF SHRA/-TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS DECK IS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BY DAY BREAK. CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AND SCATTERED OUT AROUND NOON. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S OVER MOST AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEL RIO AND ADJACENT AREAS AS SERRARIA DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS STORMS DEVELOP AND STEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. IF THESE STORMS DO FORM PER THE MAJORITY OF HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS...THEY MAY LINGER AROUND FOR FEW HOURS. CAN`T RULE OUT STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL AS THEY ENTER DEL RIO GRANDE AREA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE ESTIMATED TIME FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS ABOUT 2 AM...ALONG INTERSTATE 35 FROM 4 TO 6 AM AND EXITING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 7 OR 8 AM THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FROPA. SOME OF THE STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. BUT FOR THE MOST PARTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FORM FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY NOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OVER MOST PLACES. A PLEASANT FRIDAY AND UPCOMING WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 57 66 46 76 / 0 40 20 - 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 57 67 45 74 / - 40 30 - 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 68 46 75 / - 40 30 - 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 52 64 43 74 / 0 40 10 - 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 59 71 46 77 / 30 30 20 - 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 54 65 43 75 / 0 40 20 - 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 70 43 76 / 10 40 30 - 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 67 45 75 / - 40 30 - 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 61 66 47 74 / - 30 40 - 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 59 68 46 76 / - 40 30 - 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 69 47 75 / 10 30 40 - 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM FORT SMITH TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...DID SLOW DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP. LATEST RUNS OF HRRR HAS A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND FOLLOWING CLOSE TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THESE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH LCL VALUES. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS DO SUGGEST THESE MAY FALL A BIT...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AFTER 00Z...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADOES WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY OUTRACES THE STORMS. CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED NW OF THE CWA. LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH UPPER ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH...SOME SMALL CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO COME BACK A BIT WARMER...THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO LESSEN. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR WINTER WX HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO FEATURES IN EXPECTED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 78 48 56 36 / 50 80 50 20 CAMDEN AR 83 58 61 42 / 20 40 50 10 HARRISON AR 76 44 55 34 / 50 90 30 20 HOT SPRINGS AR 81 55 61 39 / 30 70 30 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 81 54 60 39 / 20 70 40 10 MONTICELLO AR 80 56 61 37 / 10 30 70 10 MOUNT IDA AR 80 53 62 35 / 40 80 30 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 45 57 35 / 50 90 30 20 NEWPORT AR 78 49 57 34 / 40 80 60 10 PINE BLUFF AR 80 56 58 40 / 10 50 60 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 52 60 37 / 50 80 30 10 SEARCY AR 78 51 57 36 / 30 70 50 10 STUTTGART AR 79 55 57 39 / 10 60 60 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
519 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 519 PM EDT...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD CHANCE OF SLEET WITH ONSET OF PRECIP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SLEET DESPITE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...SLEET WILL NOT ACCUMULATE ON PAVED SURFACES. A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SLEET WAS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 6 PM. RAIN/SLEET IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB- FREEZING AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE- DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID 30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT- SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON. WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN. SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/ UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
456 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS RAIN WAS FALLING JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. RAIN IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE- DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID 30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT- SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON. WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA/SN. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN. SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/ UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
452 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 430 PM EDT...A PERIOD OF RAIN QUICKLY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS RAIN WAS FALLING JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. RAIN IS BEING CAUSED BY A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY INITIALLY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING AIR ALOFT AROUND 1000-2000 FT ALOFT. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...PER LATEST 3KM HRRR AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WETBULB EFFECT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS BY EARLY TO LATE EVENING AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...RAIN WILL RE- DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...WITH THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND...AS THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THAT REGION WITH THE BEST QPF NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OUT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS SHOWING THE FARTHEST SOUTH TRACK WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN A COLDER SOLUTION AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE MORE NORTHERLY AND WARMER...WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. GIVEN A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...THE THERMAL PROFILE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AGAIN WITHOUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A FEW INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LOW. STILL...LOWER TO MID 40S WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. COLDER UPPER EXPECTED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WITH COOLING INTO THE MID 30S POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ICE BREAKUP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RUNOFF LEADING TO RIVER RISES. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN IN THE VALLEYS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. A FAST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE ORIENTATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...ESP SAT MORNING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THIS REGION. SOME MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATER SAT INTO SUN. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT NT- SUN AM WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THEN...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SE CANADA FOR SUN NT INTO MON. WARM ADVECTIVE PRECIP MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUN NT...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS ON MON...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES MON. WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR SHOULD ANY PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FOR MON NT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NT...WHILE A FAST MOVING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUE MORNING...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUE AND TUE NT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS IN CASE SOME SHOWERS EXTEND INTO OUR REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR MOST VALLEYS...PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON TUE...WITH MIN TEMPS TUE NT COOLING INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FAST MOVING IMPULSE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY WED...WITH MORE SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WET/ UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY GET CLOSE TO BANKFULL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAY DUE TO RAINFALL AND SOME SNOWMELT. ALSO ISOLATED ICE JAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD NEAR OR ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS NOW INDICATE NO RIVER POINTS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE CONTINUE BE LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/WASULA NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 108 PM EDT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CONTROL ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN WESTERN AREAS BY 4 PM...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 5-6 PM...AND GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 6 PM. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION. THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z-22Z WHEN AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. ONCE RAIN ARRIVES...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR FOR BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST. AT THIS POINT...IT/S UNCLEAR IF FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR AT ANY POINT DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH A WAVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...MORE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
108 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION...THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 108 PM EDT...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SFC WAVE WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS S-CONTROL ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON THE 295K SFC FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS THAT RAIN SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN WESTERN AREAS BY 4 PM...REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY BY 5-6 PM...AND GETTING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 6 PM. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS OR CATSKILLS AT THE INITIAL ONSET...BUT PTYPE LOOKS TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. STEADY RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO LAST A FEW HOURS AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION. THE H850 TEMPS RISE TO +2C TO +5C WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS AT THAT LEVEL OF 40-55KTS. THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN...AND POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED ABOVE THE GFS/MET GUIDANCE...AS THEY HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A SE TO S BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE BLAST OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. MOST TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THE COLD FRONT TO WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL STALL NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE SCT LINGERING SHOWERS TO END...AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS LULL IN THE PCPN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WAVE...A MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE TO APPROACH FROM TN AND OH VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THU-THU NIGHT...IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES QUICKLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG QG OMEGA/LIFT WILL BE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAFLET. THE H850 SW LLJ JET CRANKS BACK UP TO 40-55 KTS...AND A POTENT H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS /RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION/ WILL GIVE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR THE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL...WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SRN VT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS MAY BE IN A WARM SECTOR...AND SHOWALTER VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 0C TO -2C RANGE INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER ULSTER...DUTCHESS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE SPC GENERAL THUNDER IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER DONE. OUR FORECASTS LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WPC DID NOT FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THE WAY IT LINGERS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT OFF. TEMPS ON THU COULD GET INTO THE M40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO M40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED...AND SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. LATE THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT STARTS TO DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING BACK IN ACROSS THE SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SRN VT BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL. OUR FCST REFLECTS 2-4 INCHES IN THE SRN DACKS...WITH AN INCH OR SO SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE WPC SNOW GUIDANCE WHERE THEY HAVE 4-6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS. THIS WOULD MEAN QUICKER TRANSITION. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF THAT YET. WE WILL MENTION IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE MET...THEN AN ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED HERE. THE COLD AIR TAKES IT TIME SINKING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST...AND M20S TO L30S MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MAY OCCUR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS PCPN MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS AN ANA COLD FRONT. TOTAL QPF UP TO 12Z/FRI LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. FRI-FRI NIGHT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/WPC SCENARIO WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION. BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH THE H500 POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH UPSTREAM. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLD-SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND TACONICS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO M40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...TO U20S TO U30S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FIRST DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE POPS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE FA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS QUICKLY INCREASING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS TODAY AND CONTINUING AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. FRIDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IN PLACE...AND WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK...WHICH RANGES FROM ONE TO THREE FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INCHES TO A FOOT OR SO IN MOST OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS COLDER AIR FUNNELS SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS COLD FRONT...THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH A LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HOLD ABOVE 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME VERY MINOR MELTING OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA SNOW PACK. THE SNOW PACK IS NOT RIPE...AND IT IS VERY DEEP AND DENSE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THURSDAY...MILDER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90... ALONG WITH RAINFALL IN THE HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE...WILL PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOW...AND POTENTIALLY ICE BREAKUP ON THE RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAEFS...GEFS...AND SREFS INDICATE ONLY A FEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SREFS AND NAEFS SHOW MIDDLE GRANVILLE ON THE METAWEE REACHING MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE LATEST NERFC FORECASTS SHOW ABOUT 4 POINTS GETTING TO THE ALERT STAGE...BUT NONE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING...SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. COORDINATION WAS DONE WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE THURSDAY EVENING FOR SMALL STREAMS...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE CRESTING OF THE BIGGER RIVERS. BY THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA...AS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL SOAK OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOWFALL...AND THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED ICE JAMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS ICE BREAKS UP MAY OCCUR ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH...WHERE ICE STILL EXISTS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...11 FIRE WEATHER...WASULA HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST. FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED. AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD. ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG WAVE PASSES ALOFT. THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST. FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED. AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD. ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG WAVE PASSES ALOFT. THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 85H TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -14 C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S STILL LOOK GOOD. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. SHIFTS EAST AND THE MEAN FLOW DEAMPLIFIES OVER OUR REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. WHILE THIS WAS LIKELY ONLY PUTTING DOWN A FEW SPRINKLES...IT WAS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND...BUT ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR...LINING UP WELL WITH THE UPDATED POPS. EXPECT THEM TO BE EXITING THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM GRIDS CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE WELL REFLECTED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE BLUEGRASS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY. THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 DRY SLOT MOVING IN ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW MN HAS QUICKLY FORCED THE PRECIP OUT OF THE MPX AREA THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY...THIS DRY SLOT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LOOKING TO STAY CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. STILL...HI-RES MODELS TO SHOW SOME PRECIP SNEAKING DOWN INTO OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES...SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR NRN BORDER...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL. THAT SFC LOW IS QUITE THE COMPACT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO ALMOST 1000 MB. AT 3 AM...ITS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING WRN MN. A TONGUE OF 32-36 DEG DEWPOINTS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SOUPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH HAZE AND CEILINGS UNDER 500 FT. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY STARTING TO PICK UP SOME STEAM...WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ALREADY COMING INTO WRN MN IN ITS WAKE. THE HRRR HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BASED ON THE HRRR...WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICK THIS MORNING...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REACHING I-35 AROUND 7 AM AND CLEARING THE EAST END OF THE MPX CWA AROUND 10 AM. WE MAY SEE SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DECK IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THAT IS QUICKLY FILLING IN THIS CLEARING. FOR THE SKY GRIDS...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS FILLING IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN MIND...KEPT HIGHS FOR TODAY FAIRLY LOW...MIXING IN SOME GEM TO FURTHER COOL OUR REMNANT SNOW COVER...WHICH WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD WARM BIAS IN FOR OUR HIGHS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BESIDE THE CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. WE WILL BE AN IDEAL SPOT FOR SEEING STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...WITH 3 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES...SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...AND DEEP MIXING ALL CONSPIRING TO LEAD TO EXCELLENT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM. GFS/NAM/HRRR/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE CHANNEL MIX WINDS IN THE LOW 40S OUT AT AXN/MOX. EXPECT US TO HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH FROM WEST CENTRAL IN CENTRAL MN...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY IN THOSE AREAS. TONIGHT...WE WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS...BUT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG...WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL WILL SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR THE MOST PART AS WELL...WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AS OUR MOMENTARY PAUSE IN SPRING CONTINUES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 A CLASSIC SPRING FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE U.S. CONUS OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WHICH MEANS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE A COUPLE DECENT TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TRANSLATES EAST. THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOCALLY. THE FIRST IS A CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. MID-LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE 25.00Z NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. THE GFS NEVER SATURATES DOWN LOW AND THUS REMAINS DRY. THE NAM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING QPF. OVERALL...THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO...WE WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT...UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL CYCLES. THE SECOND PRECIP EVENT IS A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME PUNCH UPSTAIRS WITH 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 160-200M AND A NICE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FORECASTED TO RIDE JUST NORTH OF THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER...HOWEVER...THAT IS THE PROBLEM AT THIS POINT. IT IS TOO FAR NORTH TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF PRECIP UNLESS THERE IS A REALLY GOOD SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH AND WE CAN TAP THE GULF. THAT IS NOT THE CASE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE 925-850MB WINDS HAVING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. WE WOULD END UP WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IF NOTHING CHANGES DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP ASIDE...THAT WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A LOT OF WIND WITH IT...FIRST OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO MILD WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE GFS AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE THIS BIG PICTURE TREND. WE RAISED TEMPS A BIT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR OFFICE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION /AND MOST OF THE MODEL VERIFICATION/ HAS SHOWN A PRONOUNCED COOL BIAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS...SO THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT AS WE MOVE FORWARD. WE DO HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN PLACES NOW...BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IN A HURRY EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPS BEING FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SURFACE LOW IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LARGE STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS MN AND WI. HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS CURRENTLY BLOWING A HOLE IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...EXPECTING RADIATIONAL HEATING AND DEEP MIXING TO HELP THE CLOUD BASE TO LIFT ABOVE 3K FT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VERY STRONG WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN REALIZED TODAY AT THE SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. KMSP...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE WITH VFR EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FORECAST ON TRACK AND HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB. SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC -RA/-SN LATE. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...VFR. PRECIP DEPARTING EAST IN THE MORNING...SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURNING NW 15-20G25KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ041>043-047>050- 054>058-064. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...CLF AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
129 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR GRAND FORKS ND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NCTRL NEBR. AN AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN CO INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEBR...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN NRN NEBR. STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ONL AND ODX AREAS INTO ERN NEBR AND NERN KS. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR CLOUD...PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY SINKING TO THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOCAL AREA...KEPT THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ALL MORNING SO DOUBTFUL ON ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. DID CHANGE THE WEATHER TYPE TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WET BULB TRACE NEAR OR BELOW 0C. ALSO...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH KIML DOWN TO 35 DEGREES NOW AND REPORTING SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AS CLOUDS ARE STILL WELL IN PLACE...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE DOES INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SO DO EXPECT SUNSHINE TO WARM THINGS UP A BIT. ANOTHER QUESTION THOUGH IS STRATUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN IT WILL BREAK UP. ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT...THE SUN MAY HELP TO START THE PROCESS SO STILL THINKING THE SUN WILL SHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FA AT 12Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY 14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN WY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO SRN NEBR AND KS TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I80 THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE POPS ARE IN AGREEMENT BY LATEST NAM...GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE ARW AND NMM MODELS. SO FAR THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR REMAIN DRY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NCTRL BY MIDDAY AND INTO CENTRAL AND SW NEBR BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE UPPER 40S NCTRL AND 50 TO 55 SOUTHWEST...WHICH COME IN NEAR LATEST AVBL RAP13 AND HRRR 2M TEMPS. TONIGHT...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS. LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S AS SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A LIGHT QPF EVENT WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE SPENT TRYING TO SATURATE THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-14C OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARM SATURDAY. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE LOW 80S AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE 70S. MAX T GRID WAS NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...AND MAY NEED FURTHER WARMING IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SEND A FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS FILLS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECTING SUNDAY HIGHS STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOWS AS 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS AND NW WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY HIGH TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BY THIS WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF ZONES 204 AND 210 ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. THE PRESENCE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT NEAR 10 KTS. ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH MIN RH 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MIN RH AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BROOKS SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...BROOKS FIRE WEATHER...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
557 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE HRRR MODEL INDICATE THAT CLOUDS WILL NOT BE VERY ABUNDANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE AWHILE TO BUILD IN AS UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-DAY ON SATURDAY. SINCE UPPER TROF DOES NOT ACTUALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAY NOT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS LONG ENOUGH. BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE THAT. WITH COLDER SIR FILTERING IN THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP WILL MIX WITH...OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL...BUT THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRO THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,,,CAUSING THE PRECIP TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY PLACES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. TRIED TO HIT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HARD WHILE KEEPING AREAS ALONG BIG RIVERS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A NICE REBOUND WILL BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AMID WAA ALOFT ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH THE AREA...AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE HAS MAXIMIZED WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 35 KTS. WITH THE FRONT HAVING EVEN MADE IT TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE MVFR STRATOCU E OF THE FRONT / MOUNTAINS NEVER DID MAKE IT BACK INTO BKW. A COLD FRONT WASHED OUT W OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL REDEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT THERE TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP S. AS THE LOW CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THU MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO RIVER. AS CODED NOW...THIS BRINGS MVFR RAIN TO PKB JUST NW OF THE WHAT BY THEN WILL BE A COLD FRONT...AND SHOWERS...AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...TO HTS JUST SE OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD 1 KFT TOWARD 18Z THU AT PKB AND W OF THE FRONT IN GENERAL. HELD OFF ON PRECIPITATION FOR SITES FARTHER E UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR E OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE GUSTY SW SFC FLOW THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHES AND BACKS TO THE S TONIGHT...AND THEN BECOMES GUSTY FROM THE S TO SW THU MORNING. HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE W AT PKB NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...REFLECTING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMES MODERATE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THU...THE WIND SHIFT ALOFT JUST APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER COME 18Z THU. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND DIRECTION AND GUSTINESS WILL VARY THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANGING CONDITIONS IN THE W LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CIGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NT...AND ACROSS NRN WV AND DOWN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THU NT IN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MIDSOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTH WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LACK OF CAP ACROSS THE AREA...DECENT HEATING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE. THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND MILD. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO AND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. BY LATE EVENING EXPECT CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TO REACH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING BUT THERE SHOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. BY 03Z THERE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT UNTIL 06-07Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN SHOWER AND A THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY 12Z THU THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM PARIS TN TO MEMPHIS TO THE ARKLATEX WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP POST FRONTAL BY THAT POINT. TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW HALF BRINGING AND ABRUPT END TO THE MILD WEATHER. THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MANY PLACES WILL HAVE MORNING HIGHS WITH FALLING OR STEADY TEMPS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT. THE SUN MAY PEEK OUT ACROSS NE AR BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO SAVANNAH TN LINE SATURDAY MORNING AND EAST OF A DYERSBURG TN TO FULTON MS LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE WE WILL NEED SOME CLEARING TO SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPS THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST. STAY TUNED. SUNDAY...LOOKING DRY AND MILDER AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPS BACK IN THE 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY SMALL POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. LOOKING MORE WET BY MIDWEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SJM && .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT AT TUP WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT JBR WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS NOTED. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MKL...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
117 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... VFR UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD THEN MVFR. SCT/BKN STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT -SHRA TO REACH CKV AFTER 09Z AND BNA AFTER 12Z. TS CHANCE LOOKS MINIMAL AT BOTH AIRPORTS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ UPDATE... 12Z TAFS. AVIATION... COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CKV TOWARD 12Z THU. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY/TONIGHT BUT CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY AOA 3KFT. AFT 09Z HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OVER- SPREAD THE MID-SOUTH...WITH LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY AFFECTING CKV. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 10KNTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... SFC LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT SOME RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL THEN. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER WARM DAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND SHOOT FOR LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. HRRR DOES HINT TOWARD SOME CONVECTIVE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...ISC AND NUMERICAL DATA IS AGAINST POP INCLUSION. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FRONTOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE ARKLATEX NE ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MO. FORCING WILL BE RATHER POTENT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND GIVEN THAT TRACK...THE MID STATE WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BETTER FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM. INSTEAD...STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THU...SHOWERS AND A TSTM OR TWO MAY TOTAL AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL NORTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE RAINFALL SHOULD END ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. ON FRIDAY...DEEP THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S. SOME RESIDUAL POST FRONTAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO. SO...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR SHOWERS. IN THE EXT FCST...SUB FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL TOO FAR AWAY FROM APR 10TH...THE AVG LAST FREEZE...TO PUT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL SUB FREEZING EMPHASIS. OTW...DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING BOUNDARY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING THIS...CONTINUED DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FOR MON AND TUES. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 .UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF NE MS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE REIGNS OVER THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FOR LATE THIS AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO KY/MO. THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE QUIET. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO NRN AR THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO SE MO AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS MORE ROBUST FURTHER WEST...WILL PUSH INTO NE AR LATE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER NE AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME NW TN FROM LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 10 PM...UNTIL PERHAPS 1 OR 2 AM. AT THAT POINT THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/ TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH. SHOULD GET INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THAT TIME. LATEST MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH TIMING OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED FRONT. EXPECT LINE TO NOW BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING WITHIN THE LINE THAT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SFC INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALLY WANING BY THAT TIME OF THE NIGHT DUE TO BEING MANY HOURS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY NEAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. ONLY NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL SEE ANY RISE IN TEMPERATURES. IN THOSE AREAS...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE CHILLY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT MAY DROP TO 31-32 DEGREES FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LIKELY SOMETIME DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONT OUT WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BUT BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO AT LEAST NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. KRM .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT AT TUP WHERE A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING. BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT JBR WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS NOTED. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT MKL...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. TVT && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$