Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/20/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
233 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2015
.UPDATE...MODIFIED POPS...WEATHER AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AROUND YOSEMITE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SJ VALLEY IN TULARE COUNTY INCLUDING AS FAR WEST AS
VISALIA AND TULARE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA NEVADA MAINLY IN TULARE AND FRESNO
COUNTIES AROUND WET MEADOWS AND UPPER BURNT CORRAL. STEERING FLOWS
OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AND COULD
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OVER FOOTHILLS OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS...OR THRU AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS BEEN BRINGING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND OVER KERN COUNTY.
BEHIND THE CLOUD SHIELD...OR MAINLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY AND TOWARDS
MARIPOSA COUNTY...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
YET...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA IN TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. WILL STILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR...OR
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...MODEL GUIDANCE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET...INCLUDING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
BY THURSDAY...EXPECT RIDGING TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE...OR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DURING THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY IN THE SJ VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT AREAS. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK
DOWN...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TERMS OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...OR
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH BEGINS TO DECREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR NOW.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
YOSEMITE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. FURTHER COOLING IS FORECAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WILL MENTION MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY...IN TERMS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND NEXT
WED...MODELS BRING A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE...OR DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS 19Z WED THRU
06Z THU OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 03-18 87:2004 50:1991 57:1910 32:1898
KFAT 03-19 86:1928 50:1894 58:1916 32:1898
KFAT 03-20 89:1960 52:1897 59:1896 33:1982
KBFL 03-18 92:2004 51:1919 58:2004 23:1900
KBFL 03-19 90:1928 49:1919 60:1934 31:1903
KBFL 03-20 93:2004 52:1919 59:1909 32:1935
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...JDB
PREV DISCUSSION...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
331 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FAIR AND
A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH XTRM SOCAL. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...MAINLY OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE
TO THE MORE FAVORABLE TROUGH LOCATION. DUE TO RUN TO RUN
IMPROVEMENTS AND HIRES CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS HRRR SFC
BASED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...HAVE BUMPED THE POPS AND QPF UP A BIT
FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
RELATIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT...MODERATE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
ALSO BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITH THE
FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. WIDESPREAD QPF WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY DROP UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING QUITE WARM EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...WITH 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES NOTED AS MUCH AS
+13 DEGREES SUCH AS AT PENDLETON AND OCEANSIDE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY...THUS...WILL BE COOLER DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL END UP BEING GENERALLY ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THIS
WEEK WHICH WERE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RELATIVELY WET
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH WITH RENEWED MARINE PUSHES EACH NIGHT
AND MORNING...ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ON THE
HORIZON FOR OUR REGION...UNFORTUNATELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT
AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z. SCT-
BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO 10000 FT MSL THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA
AFTER 18Z. VIS WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN THE INLAND VALLEYS
WHERE CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
MTNS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET LOWERING TO 10000 FT
MSL THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z WED...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERT. TOPS IN TSRA
COULD REACH 25000 FT MSL. VIS WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL VIS BELOW 5 MI IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
356 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER COLD TONIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY...DAY IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BRINGS MORE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT...WITH COLD NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF STRAOTCU
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAKENING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNY...BUT THESE LOOK TO BE REMAINING
MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION. THE 18Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GOOD MIXING HAS TAKEN PLACE TODAY TO AROUND 680-700 HPA. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WINDS WON/T BE AS
GUSTY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ BUT
IT WON/T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS IT WAS DURING DAYTIME MIXING. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL START TO
RELAX...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO BUILD
TOWARDS THE AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BECOME NEARLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A
FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TOMORROW. DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THANKS TO 850 HPA STILL IN THE -14 TO
-17 DEGREES C RANGE. THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GOOD
DAYTIME MIXING AGAIN IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS...BUT IT WON/T BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE DECREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD START
OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN
WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY MORNING...AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...BUT WILL BE PASSING A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. STILL...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS
TO IMPACT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BETWEEN FRI AFTN
AND LATE FRI EVENING...AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST. IT MAY BE A SLIPPERY COMMUTE ON FRI EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS...ALTHOUGH SNOW WON/T STICK QUITE AS WELL AS IT WOULD IN THE
MID WINTER DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GROUND
CONDITIONS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A COATING TO AN INCH
FOR I-90 ON NORTHWARD....AROUND AN INCH FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...AND TWO TO THREE INCHES FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF ON FRI NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER
FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
LOWS ON FRI NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF ACTIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 20S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUD DECK 8000 FEET AT
THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-18 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF.
INTO THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF. LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 3-6 KT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING TO 8 TO 13 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
GUSTS 35-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN
PLACE DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...THE GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER LOW. RH VALUES WILL
DROP AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
DESPITE THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS CURRENT TIME. THE REASONING FOR THIS
IS THAT THERE IS STILL ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN PLACE IN MOST
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE STARTING TO LOSE
THE SNOW PACK...AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR
VALLEY AREAS ACCORDING TO COOP OBSERVATIONS. UNTIL THE CURRENT
SNOW PACK MELTS AND DRYING TAKES PLACE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE RATHER LOW ON THE LARGE SCALE...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ISSUES
CAN ALWAYS BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON. FIRE
WEATHER USERS ARE URGED TO REQUEST A SPOT FORECAST IF NEEDED AT
ANY TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...KEEPING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AT A
MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY ONLY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY
REACH BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE...MELTING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THE SNOW AND ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED EACH DAY DUE TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS OF
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION THAT OCCURS THANKS TO THE STRONG MARCH
SUNSHINE.
IT LOOKS TO DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DRY WEATHER MOVES
BACK IN. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROT IN PLACE.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COLD...AND LITTLE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD ICE
BREAKUP IS NOT EXPECTED...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A MINOR ICE JAM ON SMALLER
STREAMS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO SMALL AMOUNTS OF
SNOW MELT OCCURRING...ANY LARGER POTENTIAL ISSUES ARE BEING DELAYED
TO EITHER LATER THIS MONTH OR FOR SOMETIME IN APRIL...IF AT ALL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WINDY AND COLD AFTERNOON...THE WINDS WILL START
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A RATHER FRIGID NIGHT
TONIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY...DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NY/NE PA. THE 16Z HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF SNOW
REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING IT
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
TO PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/STRATOCU IN
PLACE.
THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THANKS TO THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS OF -14 TO -18 DEGREES C/...GOOD MIXING
IS TAKING PLACE AND A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
PRESENT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE THIS FALLS JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME TREES BRANCHES DOWN...AS WELL AS BLOWN DEBRIS...SUCH
AS LEFTOVER ROAD SAND/SALT...MAKING FOR A RATHER BLUSTERY AND WINTRY
DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...IT WON/T FEEL TOO GREAT OUT...WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND TEENS TO
L20S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE
OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS LABRADOR. THE SFC HIGH BUILDS
EASTWARD DRIFTS INTO THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING
SKIES...AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED.
ALSO...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. EXPECT
LOWS TO 10 TO 15F FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT SINGLE
DIGITS IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTED THE SRN DACKS...AND HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME ZERO TO 5 BELOW READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW OVER THE FCST
AREA.
THURSDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLING OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA. A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS ON THU WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS TO
L20S OVER THE MTNS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TRANQUIL AND COLD CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO RACE IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST BTWN 06Z-12Z. SOME MOISTURE FROM A SRN STREAM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AS A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SFC WAVE FRI PM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF/CAN GGEM/NAM AND SOME OF THE SREFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED WELL
LATELY...BUT SINCE THIS TREND IS PERSISTENT WE INCREASED THE POPS
TO LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR FRI
PM AND CHC VALUES TO THE NORTH FOR SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN DUE TO
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE TO COOL DURING
THE DAY WITH THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST
SOLUTION. THE GFS AND EVEN THE CAN GGEM DRIER WITH A SHARPER EDGE.
AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...NW CT PRIOR TO
00Z/SAT. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. AFTER LOWS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U20S
TO 30S
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OUT TO SEA TO OUR SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION UNSETTLED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. LATER AT NIGHT POPS DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THE WEATHER SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODELS FORECAST A DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES. TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST...POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. SO EVEN THOUGH NORTHERN AREAS MAY
SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PCPN...SOME OR MUCH OF IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW...SO ONCE AGAIN ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
A RELATIVELY MOIST NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND 30 TO
40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO MID 20S MOST AREAS...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL
FINALLY TAKE HOLD ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE VERY
COLD...BUT PCPN FREE. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH 15 TO 20 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO THE MID TEENS.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ZERO TO
AROUND 20 ABOVE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUD DECK 8000 FEET AT
THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-18 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF.
INTO THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF. LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 3-6 KT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING TO 8 TO 13 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL GUSTS 35-45
MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE DURING DAYTIME
MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...THE GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER LOW. RH VALUES WILL
DROP AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
DESPITE THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES...NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS CURRENT TIME. THE REASONING FOR THIS
IS THAT THERE IS STILL ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN PLACE IN MOST
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE STARTING TO LOSE
THE SNOW PACK...AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR
VALLEY AREAS ACCORDING TO COOP OBSERVATIONS. UNTIL THE CURRENT
SNOW PACK MELTS AND DRYING TAKES PLACE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE RATHER LOW ON THE LARGE SCALE...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ISSUES
CAN ALWAYS BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON. FIRE
WEATHER USERS ARE URGED TO REQUEST A SPOT FORECAST IF NEEDED AT
ANY TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...KEEPING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AT A
MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY ONLY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY
REACH BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE...MELTING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THE SNOW AND ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED EACH DAY DUE TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS OF
MELTING AND SUBLIMATION THAT OCCURS THANKS TO THE STRONG MARCH
SUNSHINE.
IT LOOKS TO DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DRY WEATHER MOVES
BACK IN. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROT IN PLACE.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COLD...AND LITTLE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD ICE
BREAKUP IS NOT EXPECTED...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A MINOR ICE JAM ON SMALLER
STREAMS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO SMALL AMOUNTS OF
SNOW MELT OCCURRING...ANY LARGER POTENTIAL ISSUES ARE BEING DELAYED
TO EITHER LATER THIS MONTH OR FOR SOMETIME IN APRIL...IF AT ALL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AS AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...INTENSE SNOWBAND IN LOW- MID LEVEL NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.
THE LATEST HRRR INITIALLY SHOWED A BAND IMPACTING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS AROUND 02Z/WED...BUT THEN IT
DIMINISHED OR WEAKENED QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS HELD
TOGETHER AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE HSA. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS NOW ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE TEENS AND L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES OVER
THE SRN GREENS...ADIRONDACK PARK...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO OUR EAST TIGHTENS UP. MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FORECASTS SHOW STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT
WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS
THE WIND FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES NNW FAVORING LAKE EFFECT
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND
NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER THE REGION
WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED.
WITH MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500
HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES
ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY EXCPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUDS DECK
BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET AT THE TAF SITES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND
KPSF. LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 12 KTS...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
LATE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT
OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/JPV
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AS AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 131 AM EDT...INTENSE SNOWBAND IN LOW- MID LEVEL NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.
THE LATEST HRRR INITIALLY SHOWED A BAND IMPACTING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS AROUND 02Z/WED...BUT THEN IT
DIMINISHED OR WEAKENED QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS HELD
TOGETHER AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE HSA. SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS NOW ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO ABOUT AN INCH.
ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE TEENS AND L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES OVER
THE SRN GREENS...ADIRONDACK PARK...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO OUR EAST TIGHTENS UP. MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND FORECASTS SHOW STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT AS
OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT
WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS
THE WIND FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES NNW FAVORING LAKE EFFECT
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND
NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER THE REGION
WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED.
WITH MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500
HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT
WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES
ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL START TO
WORK IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PERSISTING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...THEN INCREASING TO
SPEEDS SIMILAR TO TODAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT
OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...SND/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
854 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015
.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STILL
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA TODAY. NAM
AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING MESO SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WIND CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS
UPPER VALLEY. AIRMASS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MULTIPLE HRRR AND NAM RUNS.
CAPE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT LIFTEDS WEAKLY NEGATIVE WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. HAVE NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BUT KEPT MENTIONABLE WX OVER HIGHER ELEVATION
REGIONS. HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO AREAS ALONG
DIVIDE AND INTO CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY. COULD SEE WEAK CONVECTION
SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS POCATELLO/SODA SPRINGS THIS EVENING PER NAM IF
TREND CAN GET GOING. WILL LOOK FOR SOME AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY WITH
FOLLOWING HRRR RUNS BEFORE NUDGING POPS FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE 00Z-
06Z TIME FRAME. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT THAT WILL GRAZE OUR
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
ALSO...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WYATT
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
EACH MODEL WAS STICKING TO THE SAME RESPECTIVE STORY...BUT THAT
CHANGED WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IDEA OF THE
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY TRACKING FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING
MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DRY HAS BECOME
THE FAVORITE. FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
LEFT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS...BUT FEEL THE TREND WILL BE DRIER. STILL LOOKING
FOR A WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY BEFORE A STRONGER AND PROBABLY WETTER
SYSTEM COMES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RS
AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN TODAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY.
RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1000 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.UPDATE...
805 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST/GRIDS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
RAISE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR
LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE MAP
DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH FORCING MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
LOCALLY...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF LIGHT/EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF ABOUT A MACOMB-PONTIAC LINE AT 8
PM CDT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF WFO LOT COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH
AS PERU IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME AND ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD AND
IROQUOIS AS WELL AS BENTON COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...AND ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS PHASING/AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY
TEMP/DEW POINT AND WIND GRID TWEAKS BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. THIS AREA WILL
SPREAD ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF
I-80 IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TO BE DRY ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. DOWN LOW...WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HELPING TO ADVECT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE
BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH IF ANY INLAND PROGRESS TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TOMORROW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS LOCALLY. DO EXPECT HOWEVER THAT THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SURGE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND
FALLING TEMPS OFF THE LAKE BY AROUND MIDDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING AREA
WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FOCUSED
FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER GUIDANCE AS FAR AS OSNET OF
PRECIPITATION SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COMPACT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S MONDAY...THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER MAY BE
TOO SHALLOW FOR COMPLETE MELTING SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY FALL AS SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE
HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK PRECLUDE NAILING DOWN ANY OF THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WOULD PROBABLY ERR ON THE DRIER SIDE
GIVEN SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND SATURATION CONCERNS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE AT LEAST A BRIEF WARMUP THANKS TO 50KT+ LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING +10C 850MB TEMPS AND PWATS JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE THERMAL AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OFF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WOULD EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONSERVATIVELY MID TO UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDER-FORECASTING THE WARMUP.
PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITING FACTORS BUT CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS WE COULD EASILY
BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SWEEPS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH JUST VFR OVC
AND LIGHTS WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND LIKELY ATTAIN SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST...GENERALLY SELY HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A WEAK
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE ALLOWED A
PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS MORE ELY OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS COAST...WHILE WINDS REMAIN SELY OVER THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A FASTER MOVING SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 20-25KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND DRAWING COLDER
AIR DOWN THE LAKE. THE INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP BRING THE NORTHERLY WINDS BACK UP TO
20-25KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE EXTENDED NORTHERLY
FETCH SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TRACKS
EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Shortwave trof seen on the Water Vapor loop this evening over
western Minnesota thru central Nebraska has brought rain through
all but our far southeast counties. Looks like several more hours
of light rain over our central and northern counties this evening
into the early morning hours before the trof shifts closer to our
area by Friday morning. May see some lingering light rain over our
far eastern counties early Friday morning but it appears the bulk
of the precip will be east of our area by dawn Friday with surface
winds turning more into a westerly direction which will bring in
some drier air for the remainder of the day. May take some time to
scour out the low level clouds in the morning but as winds back
more into a west to southwest direction for the afternoon, we
should see the sun return helping to push temperatures back into
the mid and upper 50s.
Have made some adjustments to POPs, mainly across our central and
northern counties, along with the usual early evening temperature
tweaks to the grids. Should have the updated zones out by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Area of rain across Missouri has spread into west central Illinois
early this afternoon, with some light rain being reported as far
east as Jacksonville at 2 pm. Still quite a bit of dry air
underneath this rain, with temp/dew point spreads around 15 degrees,
so amounts will remain rather light this afternoon. Latest HRRR and
NAM spread this eastward centered along the Jacksonville-Paris
corridor through the afternoon, reaching the Indiana border toward
4-5 pm., with a southern extent generally along I-70. Any northward
extension past Peoria would be more likely very late afternoon. The
bulk of the precipitation should be east of the forecast area by
around midnight or so, but some drizzle is likely to linger
overnight, especially in the south half of the forecast area, where
stratus should become extensive after midnight. Little change made
to the temperatures, with lows 35-38 in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Split-flow pattern continues into the end of the week as deep trough
continues to pivot over the Hudson Bay area and southern stream
energy moves slowly over the southwest U.S.. Wave embedded in the
northern stream trough should exit the forecast area Friday bringing
gradual clearing and seasonal temperatures.
Next northern stream wave and associated cold front is expected to
impact the area on Saturday. Significant spread on frontal passage
timing is evident in operational model suite and SREF which has
major implications on temperatures for Saturday, particularly across
the central forecast area. Northern tier of area see passage before
peak heating in most of the solutions with I-70 southward not
impacted by cold advection until well after peak heating through the
solution envelope. Its the I-72/Danville corridor which has the
largest impact of this difference in timing. Operational 12Z NAM is
slow enough to suggest some lower 70s are possible across southwest
forecast area, however, the model seems to be on the warm side of the
SREF envelope. For now will be leaning toward the cooler, but still
above normal, GFS/SREF Mean timing. Either way, moisture remains
shunted south and east of Illinois so passage will be dry.
Much cooler temperatures will move into the region behind the front
with progged 850 mb temps expected below freezing across the
northern half of the area by Monday.
Models are suggesting a temporary transition to a more progressive
zonal pattern by early next week. The initial wave in this pattern
shift is progged to move eastward into Illinois Monday. Low-level
temperatures remain cool and Bufkit soundings suggest a mix of
precip may be possible late Sunday Night and early Monday across
northern portions of the forecast area. The southern stream energy
moving across the southern tier of the country is expected to be
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday Night shunting any Gulf
moisture east limiting moisture available in the Midwest, so QPF
will likely be limited to a few tenths of liquid at most.
Phased ridging develops over the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
allowing temps to respond rapidly. With the phasing, Gulf moisture
is available for the next wave expected to push into the state on
Wednesday. Latest model suite are fairly consistent on bringing 850
temps into the 10C range with surface dew points into the 50s.
Timing of the waves associated cold front will have an impact on any
potential instability and if a passage does occur near peak heating
can not rule out the potential for thunder, particularly across
southeast Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening.
At this time, GFS and ECMWF suggest the strong wave on Wednesday
will assist in a transition back to a ridge west/trough east
longwave pattern allowing cold air to once again plummet into the
midwest. With 850 mb temps expected to be below 0C by Thursday
afternoon, highs on Thursday may struggle to make it out of the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Conditions expected to deteriorate across the forecast area
over the next several hours as low level moisture increases
ahead of a weak upper level wave. Low VFR cigs will drop to
MVFR with some local IFR cigs after 00z, starting at SPI and
spreading to DEC and CMI in the 01z-04z time frame. Latest
forecast soundings suggest the potential for a period of MVFR
and IFR cigs as far north as PIA and BMI this evening as well.
Will make that a last minute call but wouldn`t be surprised
if at least BMI drops briefly to IFR later this evening as
the rains spreads across the area. Winds will not be much of
a factor thru the period with a variable direction tonight
with speeds of 3 to 7 kts and then winds will turn more into
a westerly direction in the wake of the weather system
Friday morning signaling drier air advecting east into central
IL with most areas seeing VFR conditions by afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
805 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.UPDATE...
805 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST/GRIDS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
RAISE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR
LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE MAP
DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH FORCING MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
LOCALLY...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF LIGHT/EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF ABOUT A MACOMB-PONTIAC LINE AT 8
PM CDT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF WFO LOT COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH
AS PERU IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME AND ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD AND
IROQUOIS AS WELL AS BENTON COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...AND ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS PHASING/AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY
TEMP/DEW POINT AND WIND GRID TWEAKS BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. THIS AREA WILL
SPREAD ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF
I-80 IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TO BE DRY ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. DOWN LOW...WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HELPING TO ADVECT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE
BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH IF ANY INLAND PROGRESS TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TOMORROW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS LOCALLY. DO EXPECT HOWEVER THAT THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SURGE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND
FALLING TEMPS OFF THE LAKE BY AROUND MIDDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING AREA
WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FOCUSED
FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER GUIDANCE AS FAR AS OSNET OF
PRECIPITATION SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COMPACT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S MONDAY...THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER MAY BE
TOO SHALLOW FOR COMPLETE MELTING SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY FALL AS SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE
HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK PRECLUDE NAILING DOWN ANY OF THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WOULD PROBABLY ERR ON THE DRIER SIDE
GIVEN SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND SATURATION CONCERNS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE AT LEAST A BRIEF WARMUP THANKS TO 50KT+ LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING +10C 850MB TEMPS AND PWATS JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE THERMAL AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OFF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WOULD EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONSERVATIVELY MID TO UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDER-FORECASTING THE WARMUP.
PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITING FACTORS BUT CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS WE COULD EASILY
BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SWEEPS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH JUST VFR OVC
AND LIGHTS WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND LIKELY ATTAIN SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST...GENERALLY SELY HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A WEAK
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE ALLOWED A
PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS MORE ELY OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS COAST...WHILE WINDS REMAIN SELY OVER THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A FASTER MOVING SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 20-25KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND DRAWING COLDER
AIR DOWN THE LAKE. THE INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP BRING THE NORTHERLY WINDS BACK UP TO
20-25KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE EXTENDED NORTHERLY
FETCH SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TRACKS
EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Area of rain across Missouri has spread into west central Illinois
early this afternoon, with some light rain being reported as far
east as Jacksonville at 2 pm. Still quite a bit of dry air
underneath this rain, with temp/dew point spreads around 15 degrees,
so amounts will remain rather light this afternoon. Latest HRRR and
NAM spread this eastward centered along the Jacksonville-Paris
corridor through the afternoon, reaching the Indiana border toward
4-5 pm., with a southern extent generally along I-70. Any northward
extension past Peoria would be more likely very late afternoon. The
bulk of the precipitation should be east of the forecast area by
around midnight or so, but some drizzle is likely to linger
overnight, especially in the south half of the forecast area, where
stratus should become extensive after midnight. Little change made
to the temperatures, with lows 35-38 in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Split-flow pattern continues into the end of the week as deep trough
continues to pivot over the Hudson Bay area and southern stream
energy moves slowly over the southwest U.S.. Wave embedded in the
northern stream trough should exit the forecast area Friday bringing
gradual clearing and seasonal temperatures.
Next northern stream wave and associated cold front is expected to
impact the area on Saturday. Significant spread on frontal passage
timing is evident in operational model suite and SREF which has
major implications on temperatures for Saturday, particularly across
the central forecast area. Northern tier of area see passage before
peak heating in most of the solutions with I-70 southward not
impacted by cold advection until well after peak heating through the
solution envelope. Its the I-72/Danville corridor which has the
largest impact of this difference in timing. Operational 12Z NAM is
slow enough to suggest some lower 70s are possible across southwest
forecast area, however, the model seems to be on the warm side of the
SREF envelope. For now will be leaning toward the cooler, but still
above normal, GFS/SREF Mean timing. Either way, moisture remains
shunted south and east of Illinois so passage will be dry.
Much cooler temperatures will move into the region behind the front
with progged 850 mb temps expected below freezing across the
northern half of the area by Monday.
Models are suggesting a temporary transition to a more progressive
zonal pattern by early next week. The initial wave in this pattern
shift is progged to move eastward into Illinois Monday. Low-level
temperatures remain cool and Bufkit soundings suggest a mix of
precip may be possible late Sunday Night and early Monday across
northern portions of the forecast area. The southern stream energy
moving across the southern tier of the country is expected to be
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday Night shunting any Gulf
moisture east limiting moisture available in the Midwest, so QPF
will likely be limited to a few tenths of liquid at most.
Phased ridging develops over the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
allowing temps to respond rapidly. With the phasing, Gulf moisture
is available for the next wave expected to push into the state on
Wednesday. Latest model suite are fairly consistent on bringing 850
temps into the 10C range with surface dew points into the 50s.
Timing of the waves associated cold front will have an impact on any
potential instability and if a passage does occur near peak heating
can not rule out the potential for thunder, particularly across
southeast Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening.
At this time, GFS and ECMWF suggest the strong wave on Wednesday
will assist in a transition back to a ridge west/trough east
longwave pattern allowing cold air to once again plummet into the
midwest. With 850 mb temps expected to be below 0C by Thursday
afternoon, highs on Thursday may struggle to make it out of the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Conditions expected to deteriorate across the forecast area
over the next several hours as low level moisture increases
ahead of a weak upper level wave. Low VFR cigs will drop to
MVFR with some local IFR cigs after 00z, starting at SPI and
spreading to DEC and CMI in the 01z-04z time frame. Latest
forecast soundings suggest the potential for a period of MVFR
and IFR cigs as far north as PIA and BMI this evening as well.
Will make that a last minute call but wouldn`t be surprised
if at least BMI drops briefly to IFR later this evening as
the rains spreads across the area. Winds will not be much of
a factor thru the period with a variable direction tonight
with speeds of 3 to 7 kts and then winds will turn more into
a westerly direction in the wake of the weather system
Friday morning signaling drier air advecting east into central
IL with most areas seeing VFR conditions by afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BISECTED THE STATE OF IOWA TODAY AND WERE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS MOISTURE WAS MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXTREMELY
DRY AIR...LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN WAS FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS
WAS LEADING TO EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES
HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE ZERO DIGITS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH COMPUTER
GUIDANCE VIRTUALLY USELESS FOR THE DEWPOINTS TODAY THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. HIRES HOURLY MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE.
NONE OF THE 12Z REGIONAL AND SPECTRAL MODELS COME EVEN CLOSE TO
HANDLING THE DRY AIR WELL...SO FORCED TO USE THE HRRR AND THE RUC
FOR DEW POINT TEMPS. THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
UNTIL MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND CAN ADVECT LAKE
MICHIGAN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT AND
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...USED THE RUC AND HRRR DEWPOINTS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED FROM THERE. MODELS HAVE WARMED UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS. NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...SO WENT WITH LOW END OF
GUIDANCE...SINCE WE COULD DROP FAST TONIGHT TEMP WISE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND NORMAL LIKE TODAY. I
POPULATED WITH THE ALLBLEND...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
SUPERBLEND. THOUGHT THIS WAS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH THE CLOUDS
IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. WE SHOULDN`T BE AS DRY AS WE WERE
TODAY...SO THE THREAT OF HIGH FIRE DANGER SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
OVERVIEW...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 540 DAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.
WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND SINCE RAW MODELS TEND TO PERFORM
BETTER IN THESE PATTERN SHIFT REGIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 850 MB TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR -4 C.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE S/SE CWA BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MOISTURE STARVED.
FRIDAY...WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVG IN
THE LOW 60S AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
850 MB TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE +4-8 C RANGE WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 550 DAM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLIDING A SPRAWLING
1030-1035 MB SFC HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. EXPECT A STEADY NW FLOW ON
SAT AND THEN EAST WINDS ON SUN. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL AS
LOW AS -8 C PER THE ECMWF BY SAT NIGHT. AGAIN WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE SUPERBLEND WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY THE
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS IN A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER LIKE THIS.
MONDAY...VORTICITY MAX IN THE NW FLOW MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO
THE REGION. 40S FOR HIGHS BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL VERY LOW.
THE NEXT WARM-UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE RETURN FLOW KICKS
IN...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
CIGS AOA 12K AGL AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING IN FORECAST. GOING TEMPS
LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBS SO HAVE MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH
RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE.
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND
ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST.
AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON
RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO WINDS.
TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS
COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S.
WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE
LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING.
INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE
IS BETTER CLEARING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND
MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND
MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES
SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD
COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS
INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS
BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF
MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL
DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A
CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY
AMOUNTS.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH
RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE
FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SCT-BKN200. WINDS FOR KGLD WILL START FROM THE SE AT
10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY MIDDAY 10-20KTS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE
SE BY 00Z AT 10KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL SEE ESE AT 10KTS THRU 15Z
THEN SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO ESE BY 00Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
628 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
BULK RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. LINGERING SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES WILL PERSIST...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WHERE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MAY FALL. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...THE WAVE HAS
DEPARTED AND THE PROFILE STARTS TO DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE MORE TRANSITIONAL...WITH
DEPARTING RAINS FOLLOWED BY SLOW/GRADUAL CLEARING FRIDAY PM-NITE.
SUNSHINE MAKES ITS RETURN IN EARNEST SATURDAY AND TEMPS MODERATING
A LITTLE ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND NICELY FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO VERY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE
MODELS.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE COLD FRONTS WAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP UNTIL AROUND MID WEEK...AS IT WILL SHUT DOWN
THE GULF FOR A FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF PATCHY RAIN BUT WILL TRY TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION AT
THIS TIME BUT IT WILL ALSO DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON WHAT THE INIT
YIELDS. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND OPENING THE GULF FLOW
OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. NO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN CONTRAST WITH K INDEX READING 30+ AND
SHOWALTERS GOING NEGATIVE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED CLAPS OF
THUNDER. THUS WILL AT LEAST HAVE ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS VERY SLOW MOVING AND WILL TAKE
CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXIT THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON...THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY SO CONFIDENCE BEYOND THURSDAY
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z...POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE RULE. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
WILL LINGER TIL ABOUT 02Z SW IN / NW KY PER THE HRRR AND RADAR
TRENDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS FORECAST TO PERSIST FRIDAY
THOUGH BASE LEVELS WILL BE IMPROVING. WINDS TO BECOME NW GENERALLY
AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
107 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES HAS BEEN MOSTLY DISSIPATING WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO AN
AREA OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. MEANWHILE LOW CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN
RAISING WITH ALL LOCATIONS OTHER THAN KBPT NOW IN THE VFR CATEGORY
NOW...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT THUS IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOCAL HRRR SHOWING DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
FOR THE SERN SITES...WHILE MOS IS ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE SWRN
SITES. HAVE KIND OF GONE DOWN THE MIDDLE EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF
KBPT WHERE PERSISTENCE DICTATES A BETTER SHOT AT LOW VISIBILITIES
TOMORROW MORNING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE LAKES REGION...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS ACADIANA
THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED QPF AND POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN
ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENTS.
TWH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
UPDATE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS MIXING OUT THIS MORNING AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SABINE
LAKE...CALCASIEU LAKE AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF CAMERON LA TO
HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
AVIATION...
RAINS ARE COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THE VSBY ABV ONE MILE... ALL THOUGH ARA WILL REMAIN
LIFR W/ VSBY AT 1/2 MILE AND VV002 TO HOLD THROUGH ABOUT 15 TO
16Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR EXPECTED AT THE REST OF THE TAF LCTNS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS AREAS OF FOG SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX & S LA THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING 0-20 NM COASTAL
ZONES...LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS ABOVE MENTIONED SE TX/S LA.
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH AREAL RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WITH NO FRONT OR COOLER AIR EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS THU...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMUM. BY FRI...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA...AND
LIKELY TO BE PROLONGED WELL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS
AND WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE END OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED BY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF KICKS NE OF THE REGION. WEAK CAA BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW WILL COOL TEMPS OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR MON AND
TUE...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
DML
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS THIS WEEK. PATCHY DENSE MARINE FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAINING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 62 76 63 77 / 40 20 20 10 50
KBPT 73 62 75 63 76 / 50 20 20 10 40
KAEX 73 60 77 61 78 / 60 20 20 10 60
KLFT 78 63 79 63 80 / 40 20 20 10 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. WITH THE
CONFLUDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...STRONG NW GRADIENT FLOW
PREVAILED AHEAD OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BNDRY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 0 TO 10F
RANGE...ONLY HIGH BASED CU HAD DEVELOPED. AN OPEN PATCH OF WATER
OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALLOWED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES
TO DEVELOP FROM P53 EASTWARD.
TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BUT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED NW FLOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE ERN
CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKE.
WED...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -
8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW
40S SOUTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015
COOL WITH LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NW FLOW ALOFT...AS BEEN THE CASE SO FREQUENTLY THIS YEAR...WILL BE
SET UP AT 00Z THURSDAY...AS 2 500MB LOWS REMAIN TO OUR N /OVER
HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND/. OTHERWISE...THE
LATEST SFC HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI WILL BE ON
THE WAY OUT...SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP UP 2-5F FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 40-46F.
ALSO THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS
STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING...AND W
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. THE 500MB NEWFOUNDLAND LOW
WILL EXIT N...WHILE THE HUDSON BAY LOW DIGS S ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND WINTER-LIKE
WEATHER. SFC TEMPS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S...NEARING 30F SOUTH CENTRAL...AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT THE 500MB LOW TO EXIT INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE EXIT OF THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH
WILL THEN DRIFT E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOOKS LIKE AFTER FRIDAY...WE WILL
GET BACK TO THESE NORMAL HIGH TEMP VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO HIGH PRES ARRIVING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 30 KTS TODAY UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1003 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Updated the fcst mainly for PoPs. Nthrn band is working east as
expected...while more activity works into SW MO from sthrn KS and
nthrn OK. This should continue to push east and weaken with time.
Removed the likely PoPs for the metro area overnight and kept the
highest PoPs...in the high chance category...confined to areas
south of I70. Otherwise the other fcst elements appear to be n
good shape.
2%
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
The combination of weak mid level frontogenesis, weak low-level
convergence, and weak large scale ascent having been driving a band
of rain from eastern KS across northern MO into west central IL for
much of the afternoon. The band has managed to stay just north of
Columbia for much of the day. Present indications are that as the
attendant upstream shortwave migrates eastward this evening, the
western portion of the band will sink a bit south and impact areas
slight further south with likely or higher pops through mid-evening
persisting in the north. Later tonight the RAP and HRRR have been
very persistent for the last 4+ runs indicating another pocket of
rain will move along and just north of I-44 moving into central MO
around 05z and exiting the CWA by 10z. This appears to be in
response to mid-level convergence and frontogenesis and looks quite
reasonable, thus I have introduced some high chance to likely pops.
Otherwise clouds/stratus will hang tuf with clearing across parts of
central MO in the predawn hours, probably allowing for some fog.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the forecast period. A
cdfnt will drop into the region late Sat, bringing cooler temps for
Sun. Ahead of the fnt, have trended aoa the warmer guidance, which
is slightly warmer than the prev forecast.
Mdls prog a s/w within the nrn branch approaching the region on Mon.
Have kept PoPs low attm given the different mdl solns. For Tues, the
GFS/GEM mdls suggest any precip will remain further W, with a more
amplified flow and a more sly component of the LLJ. While the ECMWF
soln is a possibility, this does not seem likely attm. With
differences in sfc low track and strength of upper low, timing of
precip for Wed and beyond is more difficult. Have kept PoPs out of
the likely range for now given timing differences. However, it seems
that precip will be likely sometime between Tues night and Thurs
morning. Hopefully, timing will improve with future mdl cycles.
Temps are expected to remain near or above seasonal average.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Band of light rain over northern MO and central IL will mostly
move to the east this evening, exiting UIN just before midnight,
but also should edge close enough to COU and most of the STL metro
sites to warrant some rain mention for a short time this evening
as well. Otherwise, CIGs are expected to lower into IFR for most
sites and remain there overnight with improvement Friday morning.
UIN will be close to this IFR area, but current thinking is that
it will stay just north. Questionable whether there will be
drizzle overnight with the lower CIGs as a weak TROF moves thru,
and will monitor the next few hours on whether to put that in. A
light westerly flow will develop on Friday in the wake of this
TROF.
Specifics for KSTL: Deteriorating conditions to IFR by midnight
with a brief period of light rain late this evening. Questionable
on whether a drizzle will persist overnight with a weak TROF
moving thru and for now left out. Improving conditions late Friday
morning and early afternoon. A westerly flow will develop on
Friday.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
The combination of weak mid level frontogenesis, weak low-level
convergence, and weak large scale ascent having been driving a band
of rain from eastern KS across northern MO into west central IL for
much of the afternoon. The band has managed to stay just north of
Columbia for much of the day. Present indications are that as the
attendant upstream shortwave migrates eastward this evening, the
western portion of the band will sink a bit south and impact areas
slight further south with likely or higher pops through mid-evening
persisting in the north. Later tonight the RAP and HRRR have been
very persistent for the last 4+ runs indicating another pocket of
rain will move along and just north of I-44 moving into central MO
around 05z and exiting the CWA by 10z. This appears to be in
response to mid-level convergence and frontogenesis and looks quite
reasonable, thus I have introduced some high chance to likely pops.
Otherwise clouds/stratus will hang tuf with clearing across parts of
central MO in the predawn hours, probably allowing for some fog.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the forecast period. A
cdfnt will drop into the region late Sat, bringing cooler temps for
Sun. Ahead of the fnt, have trended aoa the warmer guidance, which
is slightly warmer than the prev forecast.
Mdls prog a s/w within the nrn branch approaching the region on Mon.
Have kept PoPs low attm given the different mdl solns. For Tues, the
GFS/GEM mdls suggest any precip will remain further W, with a more
amplified flow and a more sly component of the LLJ. While the ECMWF
soln is a possibility, this does not seem likely attm. With
differences in sfc low track and strength of upper low, timing of
precip for Wed and beyond is more difficult. Have kept PoPs out of
the likely range for now given timing differences. However, it seems
that precip will be likely sometime between Tues night and Thurs
morning. Hopefully, timing will improve with future mdl cycles.
Temps are expected to remain near or above seasonal average.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Band of light rain over northern MO and central IL will mostly
move to the east this evening, exiting UIN just before midnight,
but also should edge close enough to COU and most of the STL metro
sites to warrant some rain mention for a short time this evening
as well. Otherwise, CIGs are expected to lower into IFR for most
sites and remain there overnight with improvement Friday morning.
UIN will be close to this IFR area, but current thinking is that
it will stay just north. Questionable whether there will be
drizzle overnight with the lower CIGs as a weak TROF moves thru,
and will monitor the next few hours on whether to put that in. A
light westerly flow will develop on Friday in the wake of this
TROF.
Specifics for KSTL: Deteriorating conditions to IFR by midnight
with a brief period of light rain late this evening. Questionable
on whether a drizzle will persist overnight with a weak TROF
moving thru and for now left out. Improving conditions late Friday
morning and early afternoon. A westerly flow will develop on
Friday.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Light rain continues to work its way east from central and southeast
Missouri due to isentropic ascent of a very moist airmass from the
southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. This eastward push
of the precip should persist into the evening, but very dry low
level air locked over the lower Ohio Valley may cause the coverage
and intensity of the rainfall to be somewhat less over our far
eastern counties.
Hi-res solutions are in good agreement that, with time, the light
rain will set up in a west to east axis near or perhaps just north
of the I-70 corridor where even weaker but persistent WAA will
linger into the predawn hours, with PoPs tapering off to the north
and south of this axis.
Over far northern sections of the CWA, the lack of lift and
residually dry air will likely produce a very sharp northern edge to
the rainfall...with areas near the MO/IA border possibly remaining
dry while rain will be likely for areas along and south of Highway
36. Forecasts attempt to reflect this very tight PoP gradient.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM
CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
The shortwave currently over Montana will dip across the
northern-central Plains Thursday forcing some weak low level
cyclogenesis over the lower Missouri Valley. All model guidance
shifts the flow from around 950mb through 800mb around to the south
ahead of the shortwave. Resulting warm advection and moisture
convergence force precip across northeast Missouri and west central
Illinois, with operational models spitting out as much as 0.25 inch
or more in those areas. This may be overbaked just a bit, but rain
seems like a good bet during the afternoon...especially since pretty
much every model is telling the same story. Have therefore
increased PoPs to categorical for northern zones, fading to likely
and then high chance toward the I-70 corridor and further south. Low
level flow will turn to the northwest in the wake of the shortwave
Thursday night. Should see rain diminish as the forcing shifts east
of the area.
West northwest flow aloft will prevail from Friday into early next
week. This will bring a series of weak shortwaves through the area,
the most impressive of which will go through Monday. This wave
still looks to produce some light precipitation, and it looks cold
enough that precip type will be questionable. Have therefore
continued the rain/snow at this time, and allowed the surface
temperatures to dictate the precip type in the forecast. The next
potential for rain will be out at the end of the forecast on
Wednesday as a deeper trof moves across the country. If we can heat
up enough ahead of the trof, there might be enough instability for
thunderstorms. As this is still 7 days out, have left mention of
storms out for now.
Temperatures look to be a bit of a roller coaster ride through the
forecast period as the northwest flow dominates. After a damp cool
day on Thursday, temps should warm up above normal for Friday and
Saturday, then drop back down normal and below Sunday and Monday,
and then rise back above normal Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Leading edge of the rain covering the southwest third of MO just
now moving in KCOU vicinity and will continue to spread east
during the afternoon. Although the low level dry air along and
east of the Mississippi River will cause the eastward progression
to be slow, it still appears some light precip will arrive in the
STL metro during the mid-late afternoon hours. This rain will
likely persist along the I-70 corridor into the evening hours
before diminishing sometime after 06z.
Forecast soundings indicate low levels saturating over KCOU as
the evening progresses, and even though the rain should diminish
have taken cigs into MVFR cat, with vsbys also dropping into MVFR
range in fog. However, relatively drier easterly low level flow
may retard this lower cloud development in the STL metro.
Right now it appears that the KUIN area may be on the northern
fringes of the rainfall as well as the deeper low level moisture.
Because of this have maintained a dry forecast for this area, and
only gradually lowered ceilings to low end VFR by Thursday
morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Rain should continue to slowly work eastward
this afternoon. Extrapolation of the leading edge of the wet
weather suggests rain moving into the metro area between 21-23z,
with light rain then persisting throughout the evening before
tapering off after 06z. Lastest RUC data as well as 12z NAM
soundings suggest that persistent easterly low level flow will
maintain advection of relatively dry low level air. As a result,
have maintained VFR cigs/vsbys until just around daybreak Thursday.
Truett
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 38 51 40 62 / 80 60 40 10
Quincy 36 45 34 58 / 40 80 40 5
Columbia 36 46 36 62 / 80 60 30 5
Jefferson City 37 47 36 63 / 80 60 30 10
Salem 38 51 41 58 / 60 60 50 10
Farmington 37 50 38 60 / 80 50 40 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Going forecast trends still looking pretty good. Only
change...albeit minor...was at attempt to tighten the PoP gradient
across our far north this afternoon and this evening, as it
appears that measurable precip will struggle to reach our far
northern counties.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Moisture continues to slowly lift northward towards Missouri early
this morning, so backed off on onset of precipitation for our area
just a bit, with best chances from midday onward, for areas along
and south of I-70. With the light rain and cloud cover, highs will
struggle to rise much today, kept coolest temps over central and
southern Missouri with warmest temps over northeast MO/west central
IL.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
(Tonight - Friday)
Cool, stratiform rain to persist over region through Thursday before
tapering off Thursday night. In the meantime, little diurnal range
for temps due to the cloud cover and light rain. Still expect lows
near normal and highs about 10 degrees below normal on Thursday.
With dry conditions on Friday, temperatures to begin a rebound into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.
(Saturday - Tuesday)
A weak cold front will slide south through forecast area late in the
day on Saturday. But frontal passage is late enough that highs on
Saturday will be above normal with the warmest temps along Missouri
River basin, near 70 degrees. May need to raise temps a bit more with
future updates if frontal passage slows down anymore.
Beyond that, extended models try to bring some scattered light rain
to the region but have timing differences for Sunday night through
Tuesday, so kept slight chance mention for portions of the forecast
area. As for temps through the period, they will be a bit below
normal for this time of year.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Leading edge of the rain covering the southwest third of MO just
now moving in KCOU vicinity and will continue to spread east
during the afternoon. Although the low level dry air along and
east of the Mississippi River will cause the eastward progression
to be slow, it still appears some light precip will arrive in the
STL metro during the mid-late afternoon hours. This rain will
likely persist along the I-70 corridor into the evening hours
before diminishing sometime after 06z.
Forecast soundings indicate low levels saturating over KCOU as
the evening progresses, and even though the rain should diminish
have taken cigs into MVFR cat, with vsbys also dropping into MVFR
range in fog. However, relatively drier easterly low level flow
may retard this lower cloud development in the STL metro.
Right now it appears that the KUIN area may be on the northern
fringes of the rainfall as well as the deeper low level moisture.
Because of this have maintained a dry forecast for this area, and
only gradually lowered ceilings to low end VFR by Thursday
morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Rain should continue to slowly work eastward
this afternoon. Extrapolation of the leading edge of the wet
weather suggests rain moving into the metro area between 21-23z,
with light rain then persisting throughout the evening before
tapering off after 06z. Lastest RUC data as well as 12z NAM
soundings suggest that persistent easterly low level flow will
maintain advection of relatively dry low level air. As a result,
have maintained VFR cigs/vsbys until just around daybreak Thursday.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
300 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SNOW IS ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. AREAS WITH SNOW
HAVE SEEN MODEST WARMING DURING THE DAY WHICH HAS KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS SNOW...THOUGH WET SNOW. AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ARE CLEARING AND WARMING.
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WET SNOW AND SOME THAWING/EVAPORATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG THURSDAY MORNING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR RH PICTURE FOR PATCHY FOG
FORECAST.
WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE
HIGHS NEAR 50 AND WILL SERVE TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FELL
TODAY. AREAS WHERE SNOW DOES NOT MELT COULD SEE HIGHS QUITE A BIT
BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE WET SNOW TO MELT
FAIRLY QUICKLY.
LARGE SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND A
LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY
EVENING AS A LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN SEVERAL MODELS
AFFECTING THE AREA. MARTIN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...A MEDIUM
WAVE TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND A STACKED
ARCTIC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM KNOCKED
DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE ALIGNED NW TO SE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEN BY SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
DIVIDE EJECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN AND
SNOW...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONTINUED USING
THE POT TOOL TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE SINCE TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE RANGE FOR A WINTRY MIX.
WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND COOL. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MIX OF WEATHER ALSO FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND TUESDAY STILL HAS TIMING AND
GEOGRAPHICAL ISSUES. SO WILL NOT MADE ANY EDITS THERE. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC COLD AIR LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
SPREADS BACK FROM THIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE DAKOTAS...AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND JUTS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COOL PACIFIC TROUGH
BUTTS UP AGAINST THIS RIDGE AT THE SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE DIMINISHING AS THE PCNW TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION JUMP DURING
THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT MODERATED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTER-MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL
REBOUND/AMPLIFY AND MOVE ACROSS MONTANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE
UP BRIEFLY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRY.
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF AT THIS POINT BUT THE
ENSEMBLES BROADLY SUGGEST THAT A SECOND SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE STAND AT THE TOP OF THE TROUGH
AND MOST OF THE LIFT ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WELL SOUTH... BUT THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. SO...POPS ARE NEAR
OR JUST UNDER CLIMO DURING THIS TIME. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY/TONIGHT: LIFR/IFR...MVFR/VFR
A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE SWINGING
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT WET SNOW WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STRETCH INTO THE EVENING. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY TAPERS OFF BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BEFORE MORNING.
MODELS DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FG OR BR FOR TONIGHT...
MAINLY FOR KGGW AND KOLF. THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 7 TO 15 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KT ON THURSDAY.
SCT
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
229 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
FORECAST AREA WILL BE HEADED INTO A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR MAINLY S OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS
ROTATING INTO THE AREA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
HAD ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAD BECOME WNW AND GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. SOME CAPE
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING PER SREF PLUMES AND RAP SOUNDINGS.
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE COMPETING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO LOWERED
POPS OVER THE PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR OVER PARTS OF THE NE ZONES
WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
KEPT SOME LINGERING POPS OVER THE KBHK AREA THU MORNING...OTHERWISE
WENT DRY FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. GOOD MIXING ON THU WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOWED A COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA
ON FRI...WHICH MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND +12 DEGREES
C...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS COULD BE JEOPARDIZED IF THE FRONT PUSHES IT/S WAY FURTHER
INTO THE AREA THAN EXPECTED. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS
AGREED ON KEEPING THE QPF OUT OF THE REGION FOR NOW...BUT THE GFS
HAD IT CLOSE TO KBHK. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AGAIN...WITH MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT. THE OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH A REGULAR SUCCESSION OF RIDGING AND
TROFFING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE FIRST PACIFIC FRONT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN
ZONES. CURRENT MODELS SHIFT MOST OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME...AS THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK AGAIN FOR MONDAY...RESULTING IN MODERATING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
LARGER TROF BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID RAISE POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION...SO HAVE TRENDED TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND
WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 040/067 037/064 037/056 031/060 041/051 028/043
20/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 034/059 039/066 039/065 036/053 030/059 038/046 025/044
20/U 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 33/W 32/W
HDN 032/063 035/069 034/067 034/058 028/062 037/052 028/046
30/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 22/W
MLS 032/058 036/063 033/059 029/052 024/054 031/050 030/043
30/B 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 032/059 034/067 034/063 030/053 027/056 034/050 029/044
20/B 00/B 00/B 23/W 21/B 12/W 22/W
BHK 028/052 032/058 027/049 026/043 021/048 032/050 028/041
22/J 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 13/W 22/W
SHR 033/057 032/066 035/067 035/055 028/057 036/049 027/042
20/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
653 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015
UPDATE...
The dense fog advisory has been expanded to include Toole and
Liberty Counties based on observations. Blank
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015/
Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of
the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has
increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data
suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as
the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I
will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few
hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls
east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models
also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain
moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers
expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of
thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would
not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher
terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled
conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with
cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level
shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer
conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures
are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the
forecast area. mpj
Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be
moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect
scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It
dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level
trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday.
Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance.
Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a
better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper
level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a
few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal
temperatures. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0
CTB 43 30 54 36 / 60 10 0 10
HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0
BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0
WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0
DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 44 26 58 31 / 70 20 0 0
LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Liberty...Toole.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1023 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF
CONTINUED SNOW COVER. EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BUDGED MUCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
REMOVED PETROLEUM COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER
30S. OTHER AREAS ARE STILL AROUND 31 DEGREES WITH WET SNOW THAT IS
IMPACTING DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. DESPITE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SREF
KEEPS SNOW GOING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS DOES THE HRRR AND SSEO.
WITH SLOW WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER UNDER PRECIP.
CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED THE HIRES MODELS IN EXTENDING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL IN TAPERING THE
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT THIS EVENING. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
PRECIPITATIONS SPREADING ACROSS AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...AND A MIX OF
WET SNOW AND RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT WITH THE NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ICING IS POSSIBLE SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY
FOR THE CURRENT AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN
BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE. WAVE MOVING EAST WILL PUSH THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS ON THURSDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY
AND COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. EBERT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC COLD AIR LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
SPREADS BACK FROM THIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE DAKOTAS...AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND JUTS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COOL PACIFIC TROUGH
BUTTS UP AGAINST THIS RIDGE AT THE SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE DIMINISHING AS THE PCNW TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION JUMP DURING
THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT MODERATED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING LEVEL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTER-MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL
REBOUND/AMPLIFY AND MOVE ACROSS MONTANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE
UP BRIEFLY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRY.
TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF AT THIS POINT BUT THE
ENSEMBLES BROADLY SUGGEST THAT A SECOND SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE STAND AT THE TOP OF THE TROUGH
AND MOST OF THE LIFT ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WELL SOUTH... BUT THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. SO...POPS ARE NEAR
OR JUST UNDER CLIMO DURING THIS TIME. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY: LIFR...IFR...MVFR...VFR
A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WITH A BROAD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TODAY...INITIALLY
PRODUCING WET SNOW...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TODAY THE SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING AND THE
TROUGH SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES OF 1SM TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH MOST SNOW BANDS.
BUT WITH SOME BANDS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4SM ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING.
EXPECT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 7 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH NOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WIND
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KT ON
THURSDAY.
SCT
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
DAWSON...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WIBAUX.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015
Aviation section updated
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of
the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has
increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data
suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as
the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I
will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few
hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls
east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models
also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain
moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers
expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of
thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would
not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher
terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled
conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with
cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level
shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer
conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures
are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the
forecast area. mpj
Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be
moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect
scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It
dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level
trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday.
Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance.
Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a
better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper
level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a
few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal
temperatures. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130z.
Areas of patchy dense fog continue to affect portions of North
Central MT this morning. With light winds and near 100 percent
humidity...the fog will be very slow to burn off. Expect scattered
showers to redevelop this afternoon as an upper level disturbance
moves thru. Most showers should end by 03z Thursday. Expect mid/high
level clouds over the region tonight. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0
CTB 43 30 54 36 / 40 10 0 10
HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0
BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0
WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0
DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 44 26 58 31 / 50 20 0 0
LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Cascade.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
349 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of
the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has
increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data
suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as
the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I
will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few
hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls
east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models
also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain
moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers
expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of
thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would
not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher
terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled
conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with
cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level
shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer
conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures
are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the
forecast area. mpj
Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be
moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect
scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It
dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level
trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday.
Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance.
Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a
better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper
level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a
few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal
temperatures. Brusda
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Surface low pressure extending extending north through central MT
will shift east while an upper level weather system now crossing
the Northern Rockies also moves east across the region tonight.
Deep moisture will continue across the area with widespread
-RA/SN/DZ impacting most terminals along with MVFR/IFR cigs.
Occasional IFR/LIFR conditions possible as well late tonight as
temperatures cool slightly for a mix/change to snow and low levels
become saturated for areas of FG/DZ. As axis of surface and upper
level troughs move east of the region Wednesday morning cigs
should improve after 12Z but some moisture lingers and showers
will redevelop Wednesday afternoon with surface winds from the
W/NW. Hoenisch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0
CTB 43 30 54 36 / 40 10 0 10
HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0
BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0
WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0
DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0
HVR 44 26 58 31 / 50 20 0 0
LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Cascade.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS SAME UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PLENTIFUL RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS FROM CATRON AND WESTERN
SOCORRO COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CIBOLA AND SOUTHEAST
MCKINLEY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS BAND WILL MAKE THE TRIP DOWNWARD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 18Z NAM12 AND 18Z HRRR MODELS
INDICATING THAT THIS LINE...IN FACT...WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RGV AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMP OF 66F AT THE ABQ SUNPORT AND THE 40F
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE...SUSPECT THAT THESE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE ON TO SOMETHING. WAVE/SPEED MAX MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
SHIFT MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WILL ALSO FOCUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT DROPS IN. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT- WAVE TROUGH STILL PROGGED
TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY.
GOOD LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY...ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM 100KT SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER SE NM AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN TACT AND PASSES EASTWARD WELL
SOUTH OF NM WHILE THE NRN STREAM TROUGH SHEARS APART AND FILLS
OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ON SATURDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST AND FOLD
OVER AND THE RESULTING HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A VERY DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT LIMIT SHOWERS CHANCES SATURDAY AND ALL BUT ELIMINATE
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRY ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO THROUGH COLORADO AND
CLIPPING THE NE AROUND MIDWEEK.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS OVER THE AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND TAKING PWATS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
MARCH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FURTHER DRYING FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES SOUTHWEST PROGRESS. THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND RESULTING MOS ARE WETTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA AND PHASING WITH THE
SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AN UPTICK IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL. A LAST ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW...CONTINUED
DRYING WITH INCREASING HAINES...MIXING AND VENT RATES. POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE UPTREND TUESDAY AND MAY
EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE PRECEDING
LEE SIDE TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP AT 1001MB. MODERATE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MON/TUE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED-BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH MVFR IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT KGUP. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KROW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE OF
HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING OR
TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 41 65 38 60 / 20 50 40 20
DULCE........................... 33 61 31 56 / 70 60 80 40
CUBA............................ 36 58 33 54 / 70 70 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 38 56 32 58 / 30 60 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 36 51 31 51 / 60 80 90 50
GRANTS.......................... 35 54 31 54 / 50 70 80 40
QUEMADO......................... 39 51 34 53 / 50 70 70 50
GLENWOOD........................ 43 64 40 65 / 30 50 50 40
CHAMA........................... 31 55 28 52 / 80 70 90 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 55 37 50 / 50 70 100 30
PECOS........................... 39 55 33 49 / 40 70 90 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 56 28 54 / 50 80 90 30
RED RIVER....................... 30 48 24 46 / 100 80 100 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 49 25 45 / 80 80 90 50
TAOS............................ 35 57 30 54 / 50 70 80 20
MORA............................ 37 55 30 48 / 50 80 100 40
ESPANOLA........................ 39 63 37 56 / 30 60 70 20
SANTA FE........................ 39 55 35 51 / 50 60 90 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 61 35 55 / 40 60 90 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 60 40 57 / 50 60 90 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 62 42 59 / 40 60 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 64 41 61 / 30 60 70 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 63 41 60 / 40 60 80 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 63 40 62 / 50 60 80 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 45 63 41 59 / 40 60 80 20
SOCORRO......................... 45 61 41 63 / 50 60 70 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 56 34 53 / 50 80 100 40
TIJERAS......................... 39 58 35 55 / 50 70 90 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 59 34 56 / 30 80 90 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 56 32 52 / 30 90 100 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 56 35 54 / 30 70 90 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 61 38 60 / 20 40 60 50
RUIDOSO......................... 39 59 33 56 / 30 40 80 50
CAPULIN......................... 38 49 31 54 / 60 70 80 20
RATON........................... 39 54 32 57 / 80 70 90 30
SPRINGER........................ 39 57 32 56 / 60 70 90 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 55 29 50 / 30 80 90 30
CLAYTON......................... 42 56 38 62 / 50 50 50 10
ROY............................. 41 58 34 56 / 30 50 80 20
CONCHAS......................... 45 62 39 61 / 20 50 70 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 62 38 58 / 20 60 70 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 63 38 64 / 20 50 60 10
CLOVIS.......................... 44 65 38 59 / 10 50 60 10
PORTALES........................ 45 65 39 59 / 10 50 50 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 65 41 59 / 10 50 70 10
ROSWELL......................... 48 71 45 61 / 5 30 40 20
PICACHO......................... 45 66 39 54 / 10 40 60 40
ELK............................. 43 60 37 52 / 10 30 60 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN IMPACTS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM WHERE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ARE ONGOING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE KROW WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND THRU ABOUT
SUNRISE. THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONT
DVD AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN MODEL PREDICTIONS
SO WAS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT ON SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KAEG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AND SHOWERS IMPACTING HIGH TERRAIN LOCALES.
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SW TO NE WITHIN
THE AREA FROM SILVER CITY TO ALBUQUERQUE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...940 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015...
.UPDATE...
WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EC INTO THE
NE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER CHANGES...CONSIDERED
LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST BUT LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR INSIST SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT
OFF FROM THE JET STREAM WILL DRAG ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
COLLIDE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CREATE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RESIDUAL
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS MULTI DAY
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 9000 FEET. GRADUAL DRIER AND WARMER
TREND EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS/QPF ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DUE TO EXPECTED
BANDED PRECIPITATION THERE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND FORECAST
MODELS SUPPORT THIS THOUGHT. DESPITE THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NE
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE AIRMASS SHOULD
MODIFY ENOUGH TO LIMIT MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE CURRENT CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT WED AFTERNOON AND FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE MTN AREAS
INCLUDING THE WC/SW AND NC MTNS WEDNESDAY. DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING WED AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
IMPACTS.
THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH LASTING
IMPACTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN LIFT DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COMBINE WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST.
CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS SHOWS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVERALL. THUS IMPACT TO TRAVELERS WILL BE
LESS. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 9000
FEET BUT THOSE ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES DURING A 48
HOUR SPAN.
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND BUT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKING AT SOME MORE ORGANIZED WIND/STRONGER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. 50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH UP MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO CATRON COUNTY AND THE GILA NF/WILDERNESS.
ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS LIGHT OT MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE SE PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL START TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST
NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIMITING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.
MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH ANOTHER WITH REGARD TO THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE-DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS
FOR MARCH.
THE PHASING TROUGHS FILL/WEAKEN OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A
ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
THE ADJACENT EASTERLY FOOTHILLS/HIGHLANDS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST.
GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NM WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATING IN FROM THE WEST. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
734 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO GENERATE RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL UNFOLD INTO MID-WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE
300K THETA SURFACE (UP AROUND 9000 FT AGL) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE 1000-700 MB LAYER DOES SOME REMARKABLE
THINGS TO THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...GOING FROM
WINTER-TIME STABLE NOW TO WEAKLY UNSTABLE BY 3-4 AM. WHILE I
DON`T EXPECT THUNDER I WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOP MUCH LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC ARE
SHOWING ON THEIR LATEST FEW RUNS. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 80-100
PERCENT AREA-WIDE WITH THE HEAVIEST FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA UP THROUGH SOUTHPORT LATE TONIGHT
ANTICIPATING CONVECTION. FEW CHANGES TO OTHER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM FOLLOWS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. AT
THE SAME TIME A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE LADEN SHORTWAVES ARE
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASED NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW DUE TO RIDGING AND COASTAL TROUGH ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE SHORTWAVES IS PRODUCING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LIFT IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN. RADAR DOES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IN
EASTERN GA...WHICH WOULD REACH THE AREA AROUND 7 THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IN
THIS AREA...AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS AL.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH...JUST OFF THE GA/SC
COASTS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRAVEL EAST-NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TRIES TO EXPAND NORTH. THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/SHORTWAVE AND
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE DRY THINGS OUT.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR BEYOND THE END
OF THE PERIOD SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH POP THROUGH INTO FRI
MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK TO
KEEP LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...PRINCIPLE HEADLINES INCLUDE ENDING OF
RAIN FRIDAY EITHER SIDE OF MIDDAY...WITH SUNSHINE MAKING AN
APPEARANCE SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS TO PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL TO KICK
OFF THE FIRST DAYS OF SPRING. VERNAL EQUINOX/SPRING OFFICIALLY
BEGINS 645 PM EDT FRIDAY.
MOST RECENT TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS INDICATE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE RAIN HAVING DEPARTED TO SEA AND
ONLY PARTIAL OR LITTLE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW PLENTIFUL CLOUDS PRESENTLY. MID
AND LOW LEVEL DRYING BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT SATURDAY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUMS OF 65-70 INLAND TO AROUND 60
AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED LIFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST...SPREADING NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND PCP TO SPREAD NORTH...BUT
MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCP. THE ECMWF SEEMS
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOWER POPS EARLY
SUNDAY WITH RAIN INCREASING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
REMAINING INTO EARLY TUES. THE WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
EARLY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE SUNSHINE IN PLACES...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT...IT SHOULD ACT TO
REINFORCE A WEDGE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH INCREASING N-NE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDE BY TO THE NORTH EVENTUALLY MAKING IT OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST WHILE CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS MORE TYPICAL WEDGE PATTERN MAY
MAINTAIN CLOUDS...COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY PCP INTO MID WEEK
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF AREA BY WED.
THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MON INTO TUES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. STILL COULD SEE SOME FROST IN PLACES MON
NIGHT AS CAA BRINGS TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. BY WED A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. EXPECT MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE WED AND THURS AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE A DETERIORATION IN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE AS THE LOW
LEVELS FINALLY MOISTEN UP. LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW PRESSURE RIDING
UP THE COAST. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD. IFR CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...IMPROVING TO VFR SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FRIDAY IFR/LIFR BECOMING MVFR BY LATE MORNING.
VFR SATURDAY. RAIN MVFR/IFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THIS WAS TO BRING LARGER SEA HEIGHTS
RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES BASED ON WEBCAMS SHOWING ROUGH CONDITIONS
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 1/2 MILE OF SHORE. THIS ALSO MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE SOLIDLY ONSHORE WIND TRAJECTORIES ALONG ALL BUT
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY (SOUTH-FACING) PORTION OF THE COASTLINE. ALSO
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED A FEW KNOTS HIGHER FOR THE
NEXT 3 HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT THE BEACHES. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AS 18Z MODELS
WERE SIMILAR TO THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. DISCUSSION FROM 300 PM
FOLLOWS...
SCA HEADLINE FOR ALL ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. NEARSHORE BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STEADY INCREASING
TREND IN WIND SPEEDS TODAY...A RESULT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AND THE HIGH WEDGING DOWN THE COAST. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO EXCEED 20 KT AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE WARMER. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT
REACH 25 KT SEAS WILL BUILD OVER 6 FT ON THE BACK OF INCREASED
PROLONGED SOUTHEAST FLOW. HAVE OPTED FOR NO CHANGES TO THE
ADVISORY TIMING AS LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW 6 FT SEAS MOVING INTO THE OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES RIGHT
AROUND 9 PM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXTEND INTO A
GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS FOLLOWING A PROLONGED
SE WIND FETCH OFFSHORE LEADING INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEA HEIGHTS
POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 6 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY SATURDAY
NE 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST...BUT QUICKLY SLACKENS INTO AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES POSITIONED ABOUT OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL
SLIP OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT CREATING A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHILE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL INCREASE CAA
AND HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON. MAY
SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN STRONG N-NE WINDS SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA/III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...HDL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TENDS LOOK OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
A GOOD WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WIND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER. IT IS NOW CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THAT WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
ALSO KEEPING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS CLEAR MIXING WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.
THE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. THEREAFTER...A RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
18 UTC. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...QUICKLY DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE...NEAR THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE...GIVEN THE BIAS TO BE TOO COLD SO FAR IN
A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD INSOLATION THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE FIRST STORM...AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW...
WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW...POTENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A AN 80 KNOT JET)
COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE MAIN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...STORM SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH SOLUTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO IT DOES
APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
IMPACTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...DEFORMATION BANDING...AND POTENTIAL TROW SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOWFALL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. DYNAMIC COOLING IN
SNOWBANDS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT REGARDLESS
IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HAVE TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST. IF TRENDS AND
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
A WARM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND CLEARING CLOUDS. VFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL IMPACT MINOT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
AFTER 08Z. REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
A GOOD WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WIND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER. IT IS NOW CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THAT WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
ALSO KEEPING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS CLEAR MIXING WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.
THE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. THEREAFTER...A RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
18 UTC. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...QUICKLY DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE...NEAR THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE...GIVEN THE BIAS TO BE TOO COLD SO FAR IN
A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD INSOLATION THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE FIRST STORM...AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW...
WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW...POTENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A AN 80 KNOT JET)
COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE MAIN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...STORM SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH SOLUTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO IT DOES
APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
IMPACTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...DEFORMATION BANDING...AND POTENTIAL TROW SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOWFALL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. DYNAMIC COOLING IN
SNOWBANDS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT REGARDLESS
IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HAVE TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST. IF TRENDS AND
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
A WARM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND CLEARING CLOUDS. VFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL IMPACT MINOT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
AFTER 08Z. REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOWFALL AND FOG THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS OF 20 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS CENTERED ALONG
A LINE FROM WATFORD CITY THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AS
DEPICTED BY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED GIVEN
THE VERY LOW SNOW RATIOS THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY.
DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HUDSON BAY LOW SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A MORE ENERGETIC/MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PUSH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD BE AROUND ONE INCH IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. POPS TAPER OFF TO BELOW MEASURABLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC QUICKLY MOVE
TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN MOSTLY AFFECTING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TWO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL
NEED MONITORING. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NEGATIVELY TILTED...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF LIQUID...OR
POSSIBLY 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER SOUTHWEST FOR SNOW CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES BY
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
COMPLEX...SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN
COLDER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LOW WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH
REGARDS TO QPF THAN THE GFS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
AS OF 2030 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISN TO
KJMS. SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KJMS/KMOT
AS THIS BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KISN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACCOUNTING FOR ADDITIONAL REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...RISING TO VFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE
INTO THURSDAY...CRESTING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE 15 THROUGH 17 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS IN LINE WITH RADAR TRENDS DEPICTING THE BAND OF
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...PROPAGATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
DID CUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF TO ONE INCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE SNOW IS MELTING OR COMPACTING
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WARMING GROUND. FOLLOWED THE 12 THROUGH 13
UTC HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH PROPAGATE THE BAND NORTH
AND SLOWLY WEAKENING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
ONLY CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO SPREAD HIGHER...CATEGORICAL POPS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDED TO SOUTHEAST CWA. WEBCAMS
AND OBS CONFIRMED SNOW ALONG THIS AREA WITH ROADS BECOMING COVERED
IN WEST CENTRAL ND AND LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM
BISMARCK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS...INCLUDING ACCUMULATIONS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1-3 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TO WYOMING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT AT THE BORDER OF MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS WERE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WATFORD CITY AND DICKINSON...TO FORT
YATES AND LINTON. HOWEVER...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS YET HAVE
INDICATED LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAD EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THINK THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE INDICATIVE OF VIRGA AS
THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM EVOLVES.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BE HINDERING ANY INITIAL
UP-SLOPE FLOW DESPITE THE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING. THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG
THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AXIS FROM WATFORD CITY TO LINTON.
AS THIS UP-SLOPE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE MORNING...WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IT IS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER BY EVENING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH
DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...REACHING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TODAY THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD BEGIN FROM NEAR
WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON TO FORT YATES/LINTON...AND
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEEPENS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR NORTHWARD AND HELP
PULL THE SATURATION BAND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL
SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ALL SNOW.
ALL IN ALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM
WILLISTON AND BEACH...TO MINOT AND BISMARCK/MANDAN...TO STEELE AND
NAPOLEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NO
MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED TIME FRAME STARTS OFF
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOCATED BETWEEN CUT OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE...LEAVING OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES PUSH HUDSON BAY EASTWARD
ALLOWING WESTERN RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST AS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON A FAST
MOVING LOW CROSSING THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MORE NOTABLY A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT.
CURRENT FORECAST DROPS TEMPS FROM HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...PREDOMINATE PRECIP
TYPE IS SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN QPF FORECAST BUT FOR THE
12 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z MONDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF
GFS/ECMWF/GEM VARY FROM AROUND .2 TO .4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIP LINGERS INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHING BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR ELLENDALE. SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KISN/KJMS/KMOT AS THIS BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KISN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACCOUNTING FOR ADDITIONAL REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS.
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...RISING TO VFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
DID CUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF TO ONE INCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE SNOW IS MELTING OR COMPACTING
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...INSOLATION
THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WARMING GROUND. FOLLOWED THE 12 THROUGH 13
UTC HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH PROPAGATE THE BAND NORTH
AND SLOWLY WEAKENING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 30S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
ONLY CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO SPREAD HIGHER...CATEGORICAL POPS
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDED TO SOUTHEAST CWA. WEBCAMS
AND OBS CONFIRMED SNOW ALONG THIS AREA WITH ROADS BECOMING COVERED
IN WEST CENTRAL ND AND LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM
BISMARCK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES WITH OTHER
ELEMENTS...INCLUDING ACCUMULATIONS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1-3 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TO WYOMING WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT AT THE BORDER OF MONTANA AND
NORTH DAKOTA. LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS WERE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WATFORD CITY AND DICKINSON...TO FORT
YATES AND LINTON. HOWEVER...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS YET HAVE
INDICATED LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAD EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME IN PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THINK THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE INDICATIVE OF VIRGA AS
THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM EVOLVES.
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BE HINDERING ANY INITIAL
UP-SLOPE FLOW DESPITE THE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING. THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG
THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AXIS FROM WATFORD CITY TO LINTON.
AS THIS UP-SLOPE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE MORNING...WE
SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. IT IS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER BY EVENING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH
DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...REACHING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TODAY THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD BEGIN FROM NEAR
WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON TO FORT YATES/LINTON...AND
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEEPENS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR NORTHWARD AND HELP
PULL THE SATURATION BAND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL
SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ALL SNOW.
ALL IN ALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM
WILLISTON AND BEACH...TO MINOT AND BISMARCK/MANDAN...TO STEELE AND
NAPOLEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NO
MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED TIME FRAME STARTS OFF
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOCATED BETWEEN CUT OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE...LEAVING OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES PUSH HUDSON BAY EASTWARD
ALLOWING WESTERN RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST AS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON A FAST
MOVING LOW CROSSING THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MORE NOTABLY A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT.
CURRENT FORECAST DROPS TEMPS FROM HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND
50S TO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...PREDOMINATE PRECIP
TYPE IS SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN QPF FORECAST BUT FOR THE
12 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z MONDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF
GFS/ECMWF/GEM VARY FROM AROUND .2 TO .4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIP LINGERS INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHING BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KDIK AND KBIS THIS MORNING AS OF
15 UTC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH INTO THE KJMS AND KISN TERMINALS.
SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AT KMOT AND
KISN...AND POSSIBLY KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN...LEAVING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ALOFT...WNW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE TYPICAL THAN THE
FRONTALLY-INFLUENCED SITUATION YESTERDAY...THOUGH HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
RAW MODEL TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RANGE ACROSS THE 40S
FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA...HIGHER THAN MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS...BUT
LOWER THAN RAW TEMPS FROM RECENT RAP RUNS. THOUGH FILTERED BY
CLOUDS...THE SUN WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING OF THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
ABOUT 875MB TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED...INITIALLY ORIGINATING FROM A
CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO...WHICH WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE
AS IT SHUNTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. WITH SOLID
WNW FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM (NORTH OF THE WAVE)...AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODEL AGREEMENT
HAS IMPROVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE NEW GRIDS INCLUDE A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...FOCUSED
ONLY ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS...PIVOTING THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL ADJUST...FOCUSING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTORY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET (AND
THUS THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RESPONSE) SEEMS TO BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ON THE HIGHER END CWA-WIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
FOR THE GENERALLY-SOUTH-OF-INTERSTATE-71 AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE REGION (AND FORCING THAT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG)...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ANYTHING WORTHY OF CONCERN.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE GETTING
TIGHTER. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
(WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW)...WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE
A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF WET SNOW...AT MOST.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS THE
POSITION OF A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS BOTH
SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL END UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NEUTRAL-TO-WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ON ITS OWN WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FLOW COOLER. THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FAIRLY WELL ON FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES MAY
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S (PERHAPS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST). AN EVEN GREATER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS BRIEF WARMING WILL COME TO A
QUICK END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY ON
SATURDAY EVENING...USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE THICKEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE KCVG/KLUK TOWARD
MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
346 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN...LEAVING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE ILN
FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ALOFT...WNW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE TYPICAL THAN THE
FRONTALLY-INFLUENCED SITUATION YESTERDAY...THOUGH HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
RAW MODEL TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RANGE ACROSS THE 40S
FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA...HIGHER THAN MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS...BUT
LOWER THAN RAW TEMPS FROM RECENT RAP RUNS. THOUGH FILTERED BY
CLOUDS...THE SUN WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING OF THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
ABOUT 875MB TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED...INITIALLY ORIGINATING FROM A
CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO...WHICH WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE
AS IT SHUNTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. WITH SOLID
WNW FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM (NORTH OF THE WAVE)...AND DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODEL AGREEMENT
HAS IMPROVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE NEW GRIDS INCLUDE A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...FOCUSED
ONLY ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS...PIVOTING THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL ADJUST...FOCUSING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTORY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET (AND
THUS THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RESPONSE) SEEMS TO BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ON THE HIGHER END CWA-WIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL
FOR THE GENERALLY-SOUTH-OF-INTERSTATE-71 AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE
SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE REGION (AND FORCING THAT IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG)...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ANYTHING WORTHY OF CONCERN.
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE GETTING
TIGHTER. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
(WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW)...WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE
A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF WET SNOW...AT MOST.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS THE
POSITION OF A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS BOTH
SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL END UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NEUTRAL-TO-WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA.
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ON ITS OWN WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FLOW COOLER. THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE FAIRLY WELL ON FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES MAY
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S (PERHAPS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST). AN EVEN GREATER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS BRIEF WARMING WILL COME TO A
QUICK END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY ON
SATURDAY EVENING...USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE THICKEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF
OKLAHOMA. THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING WHILE THEY MOVE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015/
AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND WICHITA FALLS BEFORE
200600. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST POINT OF CONCERN IS THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IN OUR TEXAS COUNTIES. THE RECENTLY-ISSUED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM SPC PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE SITUATION
THERE. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM NOW INTO THE LATE EVENING...INCLUDING A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS
NORTH ALMOST AS FAR AS I-40.
A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON FOR THE RAIN AND
STORMS...WILL STRENGTHEN AND EDGE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL NOT GET ALL THAT FAR INTO TEXAS...AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE...AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BE A WINDY DAY WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS WILL HOLD DOWN THE CHANCES FOR STORMS UNTIL A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL HAVE THE CAP TO CONTEND
WITH.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD BACKING FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE.
SO...WE CAN PROBABLY SAFELY IGNORE THE SNOWFALL THAT IT GENERATES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 66 47 70 / 70 10 0 10
HOBART OK 42 62 46 70 / 70 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 62 50 68 / 90 20 10 20
GAGE OK 37 70 43 74 / 50 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 39 71 44 73 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 52 62 53 66 / 90 40 20 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
UPDATE...
AN ARC OF SHOWERS DRIVEN LARGELY BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SO SOME
SATURATION NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHES
THE GROUND. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 18Z.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKIER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WHICH IS HELPING TO HEAT THE SURFACE MORE RAPIDLY. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
WARMING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING MEMPHIS. FOR
NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES. OTHER THAN THAT...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE...AND 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURING ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS IN
RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A NEARBY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE
REDUCED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AS BETTER FORCING ISN/T
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HAVE KEPT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK OVERALL WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON
FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BETTER RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP. BELIEVE CIGS
WILL BE LOWER DURING FEDEX DEPARTURE THAN THE ARRIVAL. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED AT TUP. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD.
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS AT JBR.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.UPDATE...
AN ARC OF SHOWERS DRIVEN LARGELY BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SO SOME
SATURATION NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHES
THE GROUND. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 18Z.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKIER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WHICH IS HELPING TO HEAT THE SURFACE MORE RAPIDLY. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
WARMING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING MEMPHIS. FOR
NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES. OTHER THAN THAT...NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE...AND 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURING ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS IN
RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND A NEARBY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE
REDUCED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AS BETTER FORCING ISN/T
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
HAVE KEPT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK OVERALL WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON
FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
CJC
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
A LIKELY RAPID DECREASE TO IFR TOWARD 06Z.
06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LATER TRANSITION TO IFR COMPARED
TO GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS...PREFER THE DELAYED NAM SOLUTION. IT MAY TAKE SOME TO
OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IN THE CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...WITH SEA FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING AND A MOIST ESE FLOW
PERSISTING ALL NIGHT...DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND BEGINNING AFTER 06Z. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR VSBY
PROGS INDICATE A CONTINUED LOWERING OF CIGS/VSBYS ALL NIGHT AS THE
SEA FOG ADVECTS/DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND. FURTHER WEST...THE FOG
SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. RAIN CHANCES WL BE MINIMAL TO NONE TNT
AS THE MAIN FORCING/MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON FRI ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND LATE
FRI AFTN/EVE ELSEWHERE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WL UNFOLD FOR THE WATERSHED
FROM FRI AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY. PWATS WL BE APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS AT NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
BESIDES THE SLOW-MOVING CLOSED MID/UPR MEXICAN LOW...THE DEEP PACIFIC
TROPICAL PLUME AND APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL ADD TO THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS THAT TYPICALLY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR
SOUTH TX. WL THUS CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CORE RAINS MAINLY IN WATERSHED AREAS...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL AREAS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
BACK. HOWEVER...WITH STILL SATURATED SOILS FROM RAINS SVRL DAYS
AGO...IT IS PROBABLY NOT WORTH SPLITTING HAIRS OVER.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL OBS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATE SEA FOG HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
ALMOST IDEAL SEA FOG CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH WK ESE FLOW AND 5
DEG+ SPREAD IN DEWPOINTS AND SSTS. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARHSORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 79 66 73 62 / 10 30 70 90 30
VICTORIA 64 77 64 71 61 / 10 50 80 90 60
LAREDO 67 79 63 75 61 / 10 60 90 80 30
ALICE 66 80 65 73 62 / 10 40 80 90 30
ROCKPORT 65 76 64 71 62 / 10 30 60 90 50
COTULLA 66 75 63 70 59 / 20 60 100 80 30
KINGSVILLE 66 79 65 73 62 / 10 30 70 90 30
NAVY CORPUS 65 75 65 71 63 / 10 30 60 90 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
WEBB.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
IFR and MVFR ceilings persist across most of West Central Texas
early this afternoon. There will be some improvement during the
afternoon, lifting to MVFR and low end VFR conditions, but it will
be slow to occur. Models suggest that the lowest ceilings will
return overnight for most locations, returning to IFR across most
terminals by sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for very challenging flight weather to continue today. Based
on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is
very ragged. Thus, conditions may swing from LIFR to MVFR and back
again quickly. Expect VFR conditions to gradually return,
progressing from north to south, later this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain
showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water
vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now
exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this
disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift
the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this
afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate.
A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties
this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central
Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern
counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain.
However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth
of an inch of additional rainfall today.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night
through Saturday.
Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead
of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern
U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded
disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our
northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture
flux convergence and weak instability will develop.
The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper
system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and
maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream
upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning,
with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas
late Thursday night into Friday.
With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our
area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms
will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs
will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications
are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold
front.
The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves
across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or
early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night
and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half
of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few
rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms
possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF
is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area
could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast
half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and
drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early
next week.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 65 55 76 51 60 / 20 10 20 50 40
San Angelo 65 56 80 54 62 / 20 10 20 40 50
Junction 65 60 78 59 65 / 40 10 20 40 70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Look for very challenging flight weather to continue today. Based
on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is
very ragged. Thus, conditions may swing from LIFR to MVFR and back
again quickly. Expect VFR conditions to gradually return,
progressing from north to south, later this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain
showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water
vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now
exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this
disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift
the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this
afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate.
A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties
this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central
Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern
counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain.
However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth
of an inch of additional rainfall today.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night
through Saturday.
Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead
of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern
U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded
disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our
northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture
flux convergence and weak instability will develop.
The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper
system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and
maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream
upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning,
with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas
late Thursday night into Friday.
With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our
area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms
will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs
will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications
are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold
front.
The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves
across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or
early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night
and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half
of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few
rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms
possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF
is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area
could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast
half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and
drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early
next week.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 55 76 52 60 / 30 10 20 50 40
San Angelo 70 55 80 55 61 / 30 10 20 40 50
Junction 71 57 78 59 65 / 50 10 20 40 70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain
showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water
vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now
exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this
disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift
the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this
afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate.
A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties
this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central
Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern
counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain.
However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth
of an inch of additional rainfall today.
Huber
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night
through Saturday.
Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead
of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern
U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded
disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our
northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture
flux convergence and weak instability will develop.
The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper
system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and
maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream
upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning,
with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas
late Thursday night into Friday.
With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our
area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms
will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs
will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications
are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold
front.
The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves
across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or
early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night
and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half
of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few
rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms
possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF
is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area
could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally
higher amounts possible.
Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast
half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and
drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early
next week.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 69 55 76 52 60 / 30 10 20 50 40
San Angelo 70 55 80 55 61 / 30 10 20 40 50
Junction 71 57 78 59 65 / 50 10 20 40 70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN-SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE RAIN-
SHOWERS AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AROUND 12Z/14Z TIME FRAME ACROSS AREA
SITES...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THAT OUT FROM TAFS DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/
AVIATION...
AT THIS HOUR A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM BURNET
(BMQ) TO NEW BRAUNFELS (BAZ) TO PLEASANTON (PEZ). WHEN THIS LINE
WENT THROUGH SAN ANTONIO NEITHER AIRPORT REPORTED PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AROUND THE CITY. THIS LINE
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED -DZ FOR A FEW
HOURS AT AUS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY
FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH OVERCAST DECK WHILE DRT HAS
BEEN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 06Z WE EXPECT IFR CIGS AT ALL
TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
COMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION SOME LIFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED -RA AND TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
CIGS/VISBY.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY 16Z TOMORROW...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CIGS RISING TO VFR BY
21Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS.
TREADWAY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD NEXT 24 HOURS THAT DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS FROM
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WELL TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO
CONTINUES TO ALLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS IS AIDING A
SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING LIGHT RAIN BAND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WHICH AS
MITIGATED MUCH OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER RAP/NAM OUTPUT AND SOME EVIDENCE
IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF STRONGER NE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAND EAST
BUT AS IT DOES SO IT MAY OUTPACE THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS
WITH HRRR NOW STARTING TO FALL INTO THAT CAMP. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
LOW-LVL INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER EAST AND THIS COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN THE BAND UNTIL CONDITIONS COOL PAST SUNSET.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
REGENERATING ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAP/NAM MASS
FIELDS SHOW SUPPORTIVE LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
COUPLETS THAT FURTHER SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR...AN AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC COAST AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE
STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOCALIZED VORT MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. PER THE GFS...H3 AND H5 WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS 100 KT AND NEAR 50-60 KTS RESPECTIVELY
COINCIDENTALLY WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH PWATS 1.3-1.5"...SOME
RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER TOTALS AND SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
STRONGER LIFT MOVES EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INITIALLY THURSDAY BUT MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
THE REGION.
A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MID-DAY FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SW SOUTHERN BRANCH
EMBEDDED H5 IMPULSES PROMOTING MID AND DEEP LAYER LIFT SHOULD
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.3-1.7"...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ANOTHER LATITUDINALLY DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY...FURTHER
TEMPORALY EXTENDING THE ASCENT AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT HWO. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE
REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRIER TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH EC ATTEMPTING TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
GFS HAVING IT WELL NORTH GIVEN BIG DIFFERENCES ON NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING STRENGTH. MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY WILL BE NEEDED
BEOFRE FALLING IN LINE WITH A PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND WENT WITH A
LONG TERM BLEND. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 61 77 61 69 / 70 20 20 30 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 61 76 61 70 / 70 20 20 20 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 62 77 61 70 / 60 20 20 20 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 76 59 66 / 60 20 20 40 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 62 81 63 70 / 20 10 10 30 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 61 76 60 67 / 70 20 20 40 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 62 79 62 71 / 50 10 10 20 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 62 76 61 70 / 60 20 20 20 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 63 76 62 72 / 60 20 20 20 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 63 77 62 71 / 60 20 10 20 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 63 78 62 72 / 50 20 10 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE SOUTHWEST
OF WACO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES 08-09Z.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED WE WILL HOLD OFF INDICATING ANY
SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF TS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE DALLAS AREA...LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE METROPLEX WITH LIGHT SOUTH AT
KACT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
HAVE JUST DONE A QUICK UPDATE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWNWARD
AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AND ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS TO THE
EAST. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED
THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT A LITTLE
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA REGION THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK SO
FAR HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CAUGHT ONTO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RAP OUT TO 18 HOURS
IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY
GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.
DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE REGION SAW MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION AND AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO
BONHAM AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW.
WITHOUT TAKING A PEEK AT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST GOING DOWN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL RAINFALL CHECKLIST...ALL INGREDIENTS ARE
AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...STRONG LIFT...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL...WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CURIOUSLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RAINFALL
PROSPECTS...COMING IN DRIER AND SHOWING JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGION. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DECADES...BUT 20 YEARS AGO THIS SETUP PROBABLY
WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST
BASED ON THE ANALYSIS DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHAT I
GATHER FROM THE UNANIMOUSLY DRIER MODEL DATA IS THAT BECAUSE THE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING UP FROM AN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHERLY TRACK IT IS
DRAGGING A SWATH OF REALLY DRY AIR OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO
NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE DRY SLOT TRACKS...CONVECTION
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BANDS. AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALTOGETHER.
DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF
I-35...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LIFT WILL
REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT
WEST AND DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR A FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS BAND MORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE IT AFFECTING
JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.
A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF
I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN
AND WEAK FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT
SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ORGANIZED LIFT SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS LOW.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA WHEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO INTENSIFY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE AXIS OF RAIN. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING ACTIVITY BEHIND
THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY THESE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF
I-20. RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTH TO 1 INCH SOUTH.
PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS RAINY SUNDAY FORECAST IS
VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN
AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 68 61 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 60
WACO, TX 60 71 62 76 60 / 70 70 20 20 50
PARIS, TX 55 61 57 67 55 / 50 80 30 20 50
DENTON, TX 55 67 59 73 55 / 60 60 20 20 60
MCKINNEY, TX 56 66 58 71 56 / 60 70 20 20 60
DALLAS, TX 59 69 61 73 59 / 60 70 20 20 60
TERRELL, TX 60 70 61 73 59 / 50 80 20 20 50
CORSICANA, TX 61 70 60 74 61 / 50 80 30 20 50
TEMPLE, TX 61 71 62 75 61 / 70 70 20 20 40
MINERAL WELLS, TX 53 67 59 75 56 / 60 50 10 20 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Weak cold front extended from south of San Angelo to north of
Brady at 1130 PM. Light to moderate showers continued over West
Central Texas, as an upper low centered in the Big Bend moved
northeast. IFR to MVFR ceiling are expected to continue overnight,
rising at all MVFR early Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers
will decrease by daybreak, with only a few showers remaining from
Junction to Brady midday. Ceilings should rise to VFR late
afternoon as the cold front dissipates and light southerly winds
return.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Have sent a quick update to the forecast for this evening to raise
PoPs across the Concho Valley area where we are getting rain
currently, and could possibly see some more showers, with an
isolated thunderstorm or two as additional lift moves into the
area with the main low moving into the area. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings will likely fall to IFR this evening south of the
I-20 corridor. A weak cold front just north of San Angelo will
move slowly south and gradually dissipate along the I-10 corridor
through Wednesday morning, returning as a warm front midday
Wednesday. KABI CIGS will likely stay at MVFR overnight, being
farther north of the cold front. There will likely be an increase
in showers this evening with approach of an upper low, with the
rain pushing east over all but KBBD and KJCT 12Z Wednesday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)
Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure
spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this
afternoon. Models are consistent with tracking this weakening system
into West Central Texas tonight and then away from the area on
Wednesday. Large area of mainly light rainfall continues across a
large portion of the area this afternoon, producing rainfall totals
of less than one tenth of an inch.
Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This
would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot
for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift
to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in
the deformation zone. HRRR shows a large area of convection
redeveloping to the southwest, but not sure that`s going to happen
with the extensive cloud cover that extends as far south as the Rio
Grande. At this point, will assume some widespread rain for much of
West Central Texas, with a relative lull with only scattered
activity from San Angelo southwest into Ozona and Sonora.
For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low
itself or under the upper level dry slot. Best lift will exit the
eastern counties from Brownwood to Junction during the morning
hours. Thus, best PoPs to the east will dry conditions returning for
most areas for the afternoon. May be hard pressed to get rid of
cloud cover though and expect it to take much of the day before
clouds break.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday,
sending a cold front south into the Big Country Thursday night, then
through the rest of the area Friday. In the meantime, an upper level
low will be located across Baja California, which is forecast to
trek across Central Texas Saturday. Ahead of this feature,
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft along with the
aforementioned cold front will result in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. High end chance
PoPs were continued for much of West Central Texas Thursday night,
with the better rain chances shifting to the southern half of the
area on Friday.
As previously mentioned, the upper level low across Baja California
will open up and move across Central Texas on Saturday. The current
forecast track of this system favors the heaviest precipitation
across our southern counties and south into Central Texas. PoPs
Friday night and Saturday will range from chance across the Big
Country to likely across the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances
will decrease Saturday evening as the upper level system moves east
of the region.
Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be above normal, generally
in the upper 70s to near 80. The forecast cloud cover/precipitation
on Friday/Saturday will result in high temperatures generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect near normal temperatures for the
first part of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and overnight lows in the 40s. Models are indicating another upper
level trough swinging across the Southern Plains early next week,
possibly bringing a chance of rain to the eastern half of West
Central Texas. For now, PoPs were left out of the forecast and will
continue to monitor on future trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 49 67 53 76 52 / 70 30 10 20 50
San Angelo 51 70 55 80 55 / 80 20 10 20 50
Junction 53 71 58 80 59 / 80 40 10 20 50
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1151 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OT THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN HEAD NORTH ALONG INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE TYPE OF PRECIP FALLING NORTH OF A
LWB-LYH LINE...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS
SHOWING MIX OF SNOW/SLEET THRU MORNING IN THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS...AND BASED ON SFC OBS AND DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM IS DOING A PRETTY DECENT JOB.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND MOST CASES NOT REALLY MOVING AT
ALL. BLACKSBURG HAS BEEN STUCK AT 32-33F FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS.
LOOKING AT RADAR...THE LATEST HRRR STILL DOING A FAIRLY DECENT JOB
WITH LOCATION AND WILL FOLLOW IT BUT RAISE POPS A LITTLE HIGHER TO
ACCOUNT FOR OVERSHOOTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. STILL MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF A MKJ-AVC WHICH IS MARION/WYTHEVILLE TO SOUTH HILL VA
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WHILE BETTER QPF OCCURS NORTH...AND MORESO FROM BKW-LYH NORTH.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SMALL UP TO AN INCH IN THE
ALLEGHANYS ABOVE 3000 FT.
SHOULD SEE THINGS TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TO DZ/--RA ONCE THE MAIN
OVERRUNNING AND LIFT SHIFT EAST AND NORTH TOWARD THE COAST AND NRN
VA BY MORNING. ADDED FOG TO MOST OF OUR RIDGES AND ESPECIALLY BLUE
RIDGE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW WILL BE NEAR ILM NC...AND THEN PROGRESS NE
THRU THE DAY. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECT THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR A RESURGENCE IN
THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LACKING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE WHILE THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS STILL IN PLACE.
IRONICALLY...IT WILL TAKE THE COLD FRONT TO HELP MIX THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND START TO THIN OUT THE CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE EAST
TO HELP TEMPERATURES RISE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS LEFT OVER LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
HAVE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW WITH BROAD EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF ON MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERN TROF AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR A WEDGE ON MONDAY. CAD WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED
TROFFING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ON TUESDAY
MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WARMING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT. ECMWF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLASSIC WEDGE SCENARIO CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST SURGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS
PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE WEDGE AND THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE WEDGE
IS KEEPING COLD RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALLOWING FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES ARE ALL LIQUID. EXPECT SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO TRANSITION WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO LIQUID AT KLWB
AND KBCB FAIRLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
HAPPENS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED. THESE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
APPROACHING LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MOST READILY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS NW
FLOW DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN...BUT SLOWER IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE RIDGE AS NW FLOW IS UPSLOPE AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LINGERS THROUGH TOMORROW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXCEPT AT KBLF WHERE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY
AND LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A RETURN TO MVFR AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MARKS THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
808 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE COAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN HEAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL HEAD
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TYPE/TEMPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH EVENING. HRRR FROM 21Z SEEMS TO BE HANDLING LOCATION OF
PRECIP FAIRLY WELL. STILL GETTING A MIX OF SLEET/RAIN HERE WITH
SNOW FURTHER NORTH INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE PTYPE BASED ON THE RAP AND WET BULB...WHICH GIVES MORE SNOW TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF LWB AND LEXINGTON. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...BUT OVERALL THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED BY WET/MILD GROUND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MAINLY RAIN
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PERIODS WHERE NOTHING IS FALLING FROM THE
SKY BETWEEN UPPER VORTS. THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TERMS OF
DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTH...WHERE CHO/SHD HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
WHERE PRECIP HAS HELD OFF TO MID 30S AROUND LYH...SO THERE WILL
BE WET-BULBING EFFECTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 INTO THE BLUE RIDGE
NORTH OF ROANOKE WHERE SNOW AND SLEET OCCUR EARLY.
ROADS SHOULD STAY WET GIVEN MILD TEMPERATURES OF THE
GROUND...THOUGH OVER THE HIGHER SECONDARY ROADS OF GREENBRIER
COUNTY EAST TO ROCKBRIDGE...A COATING MAY OCCUR.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE ALL WHILE A
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
RISE SO THAT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SUNSET...EXCEPT
FOR THOSE AREAS IN THE NORTH THAT WILL START TO COOL AS THE
PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN INTENSITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE TENNESSEE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST...AND STARTED ITS PROGRESSION NORTHEAST.
CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECT THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR A RESURGENCE IN
THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LACKING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE WHILE THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS STILL IN PLACE.
IRONICALLY...IT WILL TAKE THE COLD FRONT TO HELP MIX THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND START TO THIN OUT THE CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE EAST
TO HELP TEMPERATURES RISE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS LEFT OVER LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
HAVE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW WITH BROAD EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF ON MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERN TROF AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR A WEDGE ON MONDAY. CAD WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED
TROFFING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ON TUESDAY
MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WARMING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT. ECMWF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLASSIC WEDGE SCENARIO CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST SURGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS
PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE WEDGE AND THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE WEDGE
IS KEEPING COLD RAIN COOLED AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALLOWING FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION AT KLWB AND KBCB...BUT
OTHER TAF SITES ARE ALL LIQUID. EXPECT SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO TRANSITION WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO LIQUID AT KLWB
AND KBCB FAIRLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
HAPPENS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BECOME
ENTRENCHED. THESE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
APPROACHING LOW TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MOST READILY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS NW
FLOW DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN...BUT SLOWER IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
WEST OF THE RIDGE AS NW FLOW IS UPSLOPE AND SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LINGERS THROUGH TOMORROW. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXCEPT AT KBLF WHERE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY
AND LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A RETURN TO MVFR AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MARKS THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WEDGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
155 AM MST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX.
DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THE LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD SINCE THURSDAY EVENING AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA /MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA/ AS OF 0830Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND ENOUGH BL MIXING TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST VALLEY FROM BUCKEYE INTO LA PAZ COUNTY
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. AREA WEBCAMS
ARE FOG FREE AS WELL AND I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND THE
MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
AS SUCH...I REFINED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THE METRO AND CLOSER TO 50-60 POPS AROUND GLOBE/MIAMI AND POINTS
EAST. ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS MLCAPES /WHILE LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ WILL APPROACH 100-250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT ON SATURDAY
/DEWPOINTS WILL FALL NOTICEABLY INTO THE LOWER 40S AND MID 30S/ WHILE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS MORNING`S
00Z SUITE OF OPERATIONAL MODELS DON`T INDICATE A REMARKABLE RISE IN
500MB HEIGHTS /ONLY FORECAST TO REACH APPROX 578-580DM/ AND THUS I
WON`T FORECAST ANYTHING NEAR RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ITS OVER-
LAND TRAJECTORY I WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED AND THE NAEFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS WITH A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...FELT IT WORTHWHILE TO INCLUDE CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE DEPARTING THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... UPPER
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AZ AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
EVENING. HI-RES RADAR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS POINT TO THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PHX METRO.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER SKIRTING ONE OF THE TERMINALS...BUT
FEEL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION IN 06Z
TAFS. CLOUDS WILL GNLY BE IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE...VARYING FROM PERIODS
OF NEAR CLEAR TO BKN COVERAGE AS THEY CIRCULATE AROUND THE AREA.
WINDS TO TAKE UP USUAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST...NORTH AND SE VALLEY
WITH KPHX ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ACCUMULATIONS. FEEL THAT AT LEAST
KSDL COULD SEE A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME VCFG FRIDAY AM IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT ENOUGH. WILL CONTINUE VCFG MENTION WITH 06Z TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW TO SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...GNLY REMAINING AOA 15KFT. WINDS WILL STAY RATHER
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...LOWERING
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
DESERTS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF GLOBE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB WITH THE WARMER
LOWER DESERTS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY...THEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF WITH DESERTS READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RATHER LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...NOLTE/MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...BRECKENRIDGE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1237 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
805 PM CDT
FOR EVENING UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST/GRIDS THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO
RAISE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR
LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE MAP
DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH FORCING MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG LOW-MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
LOCALLY...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF LIGHT/EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF ABOUT A MACOMB-PONTIAC LINE AT 8
PM CDT...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF WFO LOT COUNTIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THOUGH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR NORTH
AS PERU IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OVERALL...THE GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME AND ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LIVINGSTON...FORD AND
IROQUOIS AS WELL AS BENTON COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...AND ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS PHASING/AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINIMAL HOURLY
TEMP/DEW POINT AND WIND GRID TWEAKS BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
RATZER
&&
.SHORT TERM...
243 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PRECIP CHANCES IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. THIS AREA WILL
SPREAD ENE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF
I-80 IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TO BE DRY ON FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. DOWN LOW...WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM HELPING TO ADVECT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE
BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH IF ANY INLAND PROGRESS TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS HUDSON BAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TOMORROW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH PRETTY DRY CONDITIONS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDINGS LOCALLY. DO EXPECT HOWEVER THAT THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SURGE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN EARLY HIGH TEMPS AND
FALLING TEMPS OFF THE LAKE BY AROUND MIDDAY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.LONG TERM...
243 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING AREA
WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FOCUSED
FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH ANTECEDENT
DRY LOW LEVELS AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEANING TOWARDS SLOWER GUIDANCE AS FAR AS OSNET OF
PRECIPITATION SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COMPACT VORT MAX DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S MONDAY...THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER MAY BE
TOO SHALLOW FOR COMPLETE MELTING SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY FALL AS SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE
HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK PRECLUDE NAILING DOWN ANY OF THE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...BUT WOULD PROBABLY ERR ON THE DRIER SIDE
GIVEN SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND SATURATION CONCERNS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE AT LEAST A BRIEF WARMUP THANKS TO 50KT+ LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSPORTING +10C 850MB TEMPS AND PWATS JUST IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE THERMAL AXIS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OFF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WOULD EXPECT WARMING
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONSERVATIVELY MID TO UPPER 50S
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDER-FORECASTING THE WARMUP.
PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITING FACTORS BUT CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS WE COULD EASILY
BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SWEEPS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NONE.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
A SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH SOME LOW
END GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EVENING LOOKING LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...DUE IN LARGE PART TO A CORRIDOR OF GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS SETTING UP TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE COULD EVEN
SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AS
WINDS OFF THE DECK COULD INCREASE TO OR JUST IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD ALSO BE OF DECENT
MAGNITUDE...AND IT COULD END UP BEING SHORT LIVED...I HAVE HELD OFF
ON INCLUDING ANY WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SOME POSSIBILITIES OF IT NOT PASSING OVER THE
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. GIVEN THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...I HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS WINDS SHIFT IN THE NEW 30
HOUR ORD TAF DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT MAY OCCUR JUST PAST THE END OF
THIS PERIOD.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. IFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST...GENERALLY SELY HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A WEAK
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HAVE ALLOWED A
PSEUDO-LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS MORE ELY OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ALONG THE ILLINOIS COAST...WHILE WINDS REMAIN SELY OVER THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST TONIGHT
AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS WILL VEER
TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND A FASTER MOVING SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING
SLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO 20-25KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND DRAWING COLDER
AIR DOWN THE LAKE. THE INCREASING COLD ADVECTION AS ANOTHER ARCTIC
HIGH BUILDS OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD HELP BRING THE NORTHERLY WINDS BACK UP TO
20-25KT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WHILE GALES ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE EXTENDED NORTHERLY
FETCH SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TRACKS
EAST TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM TENNESSEE TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Shortwave trof seen on the Water Vapor loop this evening over
western Minnesota thru central Nebraska has brought rain through
all but our far southeast counties. Looks like several more hours
of light rain over our central and northern counties this evening
into the early morning hours before the trof shifts closer to our
area by Friday morning. May see some lingering light rain over our
far eastern counties early Friday morning but it appears the bulk
of the precip will be east of our area by dawn Friday with surface
winds turning more into a westerly direction which will bring in
some drier air for the remainder of the day. May take some time to
scour out the low level clouds in the morning but as winds back
more into a west to southwest direction for the afternoon, we
should see the sun return helping to push temperatures back into
the mid and upper 50s.
Have made some adjustments to POPs, mainly across our central and
northern counties, along with the usual early evening temperature
tweaks to the grids. Should have the updated zones out by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Area of rain across Missouri has spread into west central Illinois
early this afternoon, with some light rain being reported as far
east as Jacksonville at 2 pm. Still quite a bit of dry air
underneath this rain, with temp/dew point spreads around 15 degrees,
so amounts will remain rather light this afternoon. Latest HRRR and
NAM spread this eastward centered along the Jacksonville-Paris
corridor through the afternoon, reaching the Indiana border toward
4-5 pm., with a southern extent generally along I-70. Any northward
extension past Peoria would be more likely very late afternoon. The
bulk of the precipitation should be east of the forecast area by
around midnight or so, but some drizzle is likely to linger
overnight, especially in the south half of the forecast area, where
stratus should become extensive after midnight. Little change made
to the temperatures, with lows 35-38 in most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Split-flow pattern continues into the end of the week as deep trough
continues to pivot over the Hudson Bay area and southern stream
energy moves slowly over the southwest U.S.. Wave embedded in the
northern stream trough should exit the forecast area Friday bringing
gradual clearing and seasonal temperatures.
Next northern stream wave and associated cold front is expected to
impact the area on Saturday. Significant spread on frontal passage
timing is evident in operational model suite and SREF which has
major implications on temperatures for Saturday, particularly across
the central forecast area. Northern tier of area see passage before
peak heating in most of the solutions with I-70 southward not
impacted by cold advection until well after peak heating through the
solution envelope. Its the I-72/Danville corridor which has the
largest impact of this difference in timing. Operational 12Z NAM is
slow enough to suggest some lower 70s are possible across southwest
forecast area, however, the model seems to be on the warm side of the
SREF envelope. For now will be leaning toward the cooler, but still
above normal, GFS/SREF Mean timing. Either way, moisture remains
shunted south and east of Illinois so passage will be dry.
Much cooler temperatures will move into the region behind the front
with progged 850 mb temps expected below freezing across the
northern half of the area by Monday.
Models are suggesting a temporary transition to a more progressive
zonal pattern by early next week. The initial wave in this pattern
shift is progged to move eastward into Illinois Monday. Low-level
temperatures remain cool and Bufkit soundings suggest a mix of
precip may be possible late Sunday Night and early Monday across
northern portions of the forecast area. The southern stream energy
moving across the southern tier of the country is expected to be
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday Night shunting any Gulf
moisture east limiting moisture available in the Midwest, so QPF
will likely be limited to a few tenths of liquid at most.
Phased ridging develops over the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
allowing temps to respond rapidly. With the phasing, Gulf moisture
is available for the next wave expected to push into the state on
Wednesday. Latest model suite are fairly consistent on bringing 850
temps into the 10C range with surface dew points into the 50s.
Timing of the waves associated cold front will have an impact on any
potential instability and if a passage does occur near peak heating
can not rule out the potential for thunder, particularly across
southeast Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening.
At this time, GFS and ECMWF suggest the strong wave on Wednesday
will assist in a transition back to a ridge west/trough east
longwave pattern allowing cold air to once again plummet into the
midwest. With 850 mb temps expected to be below 0C by Thursday
afternoon, highs on Thursday may struggle to make it out of the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
Backedge of rain continues to push steadily to the east and was
about to push east of PIA. Most of the steadier light rain should
be east of our TAF sites between 07z-09z. We may see some light
drizzle at times during the early morning hours as the lower levels
of the atmosphere continues to saturate ahead of an upper level
disturbance, which should pass east of our area Friday morning.
Until then, latest short term forecasts continue to suggest the
cigs will continue to lower to IFR. With the trof axis still to our
west and the very light surface flow expected to continue thru about
15z Friday, can not rule that out so will continue to include at least
some tempo IFR groups into the morning hours. Forecast soundings
indicate a gradual improvement to VFR but not until after 17z
across our eastern TAF sites as the low level westerly flow starts to
increase. The light and variable wind regime will continue for the
rest of the night and then start to increase from a westerly direction
after 13z Friday with speeds by afternoon in the 10 to 15 kt
range.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1155 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 959 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Updated the fcst mainly for PoPs. Nthrn band is working east as
expected...while more activity works into SW MO from sthrn KS and
nthrn OK. This should continue to push east and weaken with time.
Removed the likely PoPs for the metro area overnight and kept the
highest PoPs...in the high chance category...confined to areas
south of I70. Otherwise the other fcst elements appear to be n
good shape.
2%
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
The combination of weak mid level frontogenesis, weak low-level
convergence, and weak large scale ascent having been driving a band
of rain from eastern KS across northern MO into west central IL for
much of the afternoon. The band has managed to stay just north of
Columbia for much of the day. Present indications are that as the
attendant upstream shortwave migrates eastward this evening, the
western portion of the band will sink a bit south and impact areas
slight further south with likely or higher pops through mid-evening
persisting in the north. Later tonight the RAP and HRRR have been
very persistent for the last 4+ runs indicating another pocket of
rain will move along and just north of I-44 moving into central MO
around 05z and exiting the CWA by 10z. This appears to be in
response to mid-level convergence and frontogenesis and looks quite
reasonable, thus I have introduced some high chance to likely pops.
Otherwise clouds/stratus will hang tuf with clearing across parts of
central MO in the predawn hours, probably allowing for some fog.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
Mdls are in relatively good agreement thru the forecast period. A
cdfnt will drop into the region late Sat, bringing cooler temps for
Sun. Ahead of the fnt, have trended aoa the warmer guidance, which
is slightly warmer than the prev forecast.
Mdls prog a s/w within the nrn branch approaching the region on Mon.
Have kept PoPs low attm given the different mdl solns. For Tues, the
GFS/GEM mdls suggest any precip will remain further W, with a more
amplified flow and a more sly component of the LLJ. While the ECMWF
soln is a possibility, this does not seem likely attm. With
differences in sfc low track and strength of upper low, timing of
precip for Wed and beyond is more difficult. Have kept PoPs out of
the likely range for now given timing differences. However, it seems
that precip will be likely sometime between Tues night and Thurs
morning. Hopefully, timing will improve with future mdl cycles.
Temps are expected to remain near or above seasonal average.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015
IFR CIGs will expand to the rest of STL metro by 08z, with
improvement from west to east late tonight and into Friday morning
as the low clouds slowly clear out. Rain should be done, but
cannot fully rule out a brief occurrence of drizzle thru 12z.
Otherwise, a light westerly flow will develop and back SW Friday
night.
Specifics for KSTL: Deteriorating conditions to IFR are imminent
with some drizzle possible. Then improving conditions late Friday
morning and early afternoon. A westerly flow will develop on
Friday backing SW Friday night.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
IF NOT FOR THE NOW-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD 24 HOURS WITH ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES...EFFECTIVELY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP...AND A NICE WARM UP INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A
COMPLAINT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. FOR THOSE WITH
PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE FIRE DANGER DETAILS TODAY...PLEASE
REFER TO THE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW AS THIS TOPIC WILL NOT BE
ADDRESSED ANY FURTHER IN THIS MAIN SHORT TERM SECTION.
STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM...THE ENTIRE CWA
SITS UNDER ESSENTIALLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AS THE MASS OF CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS SUNK WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA IS TRULY FREE OF ALL WEATHER CONCERNS...AN AREA OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AROUND 30 DEGREES RESIDING NEAR A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUCH AS THAYER/JEWELL/MITCHELL IS PROMOTING
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...WITH THE BELOIT AIRPORT EVEN
SUGGESTING IT COULD BE PATCHY DENSE ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED IN MANY
AREAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 25-32 RANGE. TURNING TO THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER RATHER WEAK FLOW THANKS TO
BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UPPER JET
BRANCHES IN THIS LARGE-SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH CENTERED MAINLY FROM CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH ORIENTED FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EASTWARD.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH 8 AM): AS MENTIONED ABOVE
ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON-OSBORNE LINE WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS
POINT...PATCHY DENSE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MAY ADD THIS
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE LATEST 07Z HRRR VISIBILITY PROG HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS
SMALL-SCALE AREA OF AT LEAST LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL.
TODAY: ONCE ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG BURNS OFF IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BY MOST FOLKS STANDARDS WE ARE LEFT WITH A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT DAY WITH A BIT OF BREEZE (ESPECIALLY NORTH) AND
ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ESSENTIALLY NIL FORCING IN FAIRLY WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE "QUIET ZONE" BETWEEN THE
MAIN JET BRANCHES IN THE SPLIT REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ALONG WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WILL PROMOTE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THESE BREEZES WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEP DIURNAL MIXING PROGGED TO REACH UP
TO AROUND 750 MILLIBARS PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOCUSED NORTH OF I-80...THAT
IS WHERE THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH WILL EXIST...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...AND THUS KS ZONES
ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATED...YET AGAIN AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ON
SEVERAL DAYS THIS MONTH...VARIOUS SETS OF MODELS/GUIDANCE APPEAR
TO BE TOO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE NOT GONE LOW ENOUGH...FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO
GFS/RAP VALUES WITH DEWS AVERAGING WELL DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...THIS SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
WIND REGIME SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT EVERY BIT OF WARMING POTENTIAL THAT
IT CAN...AND NUDGED HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA UP ANOTHER 1-2
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM 73-75 RANGE MOST PLACES. BY
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AFTER 6 PM)...THE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS SHOULD BE ON A FAIRLY STEADY DECLINE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: QUIET/ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE WEATHER
PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASINGLY-BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
NEBRASKA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...EMANATING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER REGION. ALL THIS REALLY MEANS LOCALLY IS THAT WHILE THE
EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES OF
5-10 MPH...THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD MAINLY INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...MARKED BY A
SWITCH TO FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES. GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES...WE MAY BE FACING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS...BUT GIVEN
THE NOTICEABLY WARMER START TO THE NIGHT THIS TIME
AROUND...GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS TO HOLD UP ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWS AIMED 35-39 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND COLDER LOW 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL
VALLEY/GREELEY/DAWSON COUNTY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTUALLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF INTERESTING WEATHER IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN START TO COOL BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH SPRING STARTS TODAY AT 2245Z...SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
FULL DAY OF SPRING AND IT WILL BE A NICE ONE. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
REASONABLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK UP
INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ALL THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTS IN SOME 500+ CAPE
VALUES BY AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLID THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO THE EAST...OR MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS THIS EVENT WILL BE GET GOING FURTHER EAST AND LATER
IN THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK AND HUGGED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS PRETTY SMALL BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE WISE AT
THIS TIME.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL RIDE OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO
KICK IN AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY
UNSTABLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO
THE AREA. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ALSO SUPPORTS AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SIGNS NOW POINT
TOWARD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.35 RANGE...BUT IT IS EARLY.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. SUCH A LOW POSITION HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO SWEEP SOME DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ABOARD WESTERLY WINDS. SO DESPITE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAPID DRYING
MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE LATE THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
AREAS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR
TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THE COOLER TEMPS
ARE REALLY ONLY ABOUT NORMAL AT THE COOLEST. PEERING AHEAD
A BIT FURTHER...WHATEVER RAIN WE MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK
COULD BE PRETTY HANDY...AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE END OF THE MONTH LOOKS IFFY AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WITH ESSENTIALLY NO SKY COVER WHATSOEVER ANTICIPATED...CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE HIGH IN CONTINUED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. THAT LEAVES
WIND AS THE MAIN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY A PERIOD OF MODEST GUSTINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STARTING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...VERY
LIGHT/GENERALLY WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. AFTER
SUNRISE...WEST-SOUTHWEST SPEEDS WILL START TO PICK UP A
BIT...WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 22KT THEN PEAKING DURING THE
18Z-23Z TIME FRAME BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AT/BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING:
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...TODAY IS NOW
OFFICIALLY CONSIDERED A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE COORDINATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES LBF/OAX ON AN UPGRADE/EXPANSION OF THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING VALID FROM 18Z-
01Z/1PM-8PM. JUST AS A QUICK REVIEW FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE
UNFAMILIAR WITH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA: "CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN
OUR CWA IS DEFINED AS THE 3+ HOUR OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) OF 20 PERCENT-OR-LOWER AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF 20 MPH/25
MPH. "NEAR-CRITICAL" IS DEFINED AS THE OVERLAP OF 25 PERCENT-OR-
LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS OF 15 MPH/20 MPH (IN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY VEGETATION OF COURSE).
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN REACHING
CRITICAL CRITERIA...WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY CRASH INTO
THE 14-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH
SOME PLACES IN THE WARNING MAY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 20+ MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SPEEDS ALL AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING SEMI-FREQUENT 25+ MPH GUSTS GIVEN
DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. OF COURSE...IT IS
ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN OUTSIDE THE OFFICIAL RED
FLAG AREA...AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CERTAINLY
EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES BETWEEN I-80 AND THE STATE LINE
WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 20+ MPH SHOULD EXIST. ALTHOUGH NOT
"TOTALLY SAFE" BY ANY MEANS...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES SHOULD BE
UNDER THE LEAST-OVERALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT EVEN
GUSTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF 20 MPH. ON ONE LAST NOTE...THE WARNING
END TIME OF 8PM IS PROBABLY PLENTY GENEROUS GIVEN THAT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REALLY SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 7PM IF NOT SOONER...BUT
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES SHOULD DROP...WOULD RATHER GIVE LATER
SHIFTS A CHANCE TO CANCEL A BIT EARLY THAN HAVE TO EXTEND.
BEYOND TODAY:
DESPITE THE FACT THERE ARE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION PEPPERED IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME PRETTY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. ANOTHER MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS A
NORTHWEST WIND TAKES HOLD IN A POST FRONT REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT MARGINAL AND IT
WILL BE TOTALLY BASED ON TIMING. SIMILAR DEAL ON TUESDAY BUT THIS
TIME STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP
CREATE A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON...AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST. IT DOESN/T LOOK AS WARM BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COULD REALLY TANK...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW THE ONGOING
FORECAST. AGAIN... TIMING IS THE KEY AND THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED ONE TO WATCH AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CUBA. TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES FULL SUN AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES
BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOLLOWING RUC FORECAST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER
READINGS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
AND OFF FIRE CONCERNS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A FEW SHOTS AT
RAINFALL/THUNDER...YES PRECIP...NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT NOT GREAT
SHOTS.
SATURDAY A STALLING COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. QUESTION IS HOW FAR IT MAKES IT INTO N
CENTRAL NEB AS TO TEMPS THERE. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS SOAR BACK TO 14C TO 18C. GUIDANCE RETURNS
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER VALUES. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...STILL MILD AIR FOR FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...15 MPH
OR LESS...SO WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING STILL IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS FASTER...BRINGING
COLD AIR CLOSER TO THE CWA....WHICH MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
TEMP FORECAST. MIXING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS
UP SO STILL WENT WITH 60S AND 70S AGAIN. MODELS IN GENERALLY HAVE
INCREASE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT FOCUSING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...SO TRIMMED INHERITED POPS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. DRY SLOT
ACROSS SW WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WITH LOW POPS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED MOST OF THE PRECIP IS JUST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS FAVORS AN ELEVATED TROUGH TO LIFT NE ACROSS
THE AREA. A NEG ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX AND MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDER. LINGERING T CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AS THE ACTIVITY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SOME ARCTIC AIR FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO. LACK OF
MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN WITH PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE COOLER
TEMPS COULD RESULT IN RAIN MAYBE MIXING WITH SNOW WED NIGHT IF IT
HAS NOT EXITED YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SERN ALBERTA WILL CIRCULATE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY AND BE LOCATED OVER MN BY FRIDAY EVENING. FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE LAST MONTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE WITH STRONGER WIND FORECAST AS COOL FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED DUE TO LOW RH AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...NOR WILL AMOUNTS BE AS GREAT. NONETHELESS...PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE FAVORED. ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FAVOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THOUGH SPOTTY HIGH TERRAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF MARCH...ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS PERSISTING THIS MORNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE JEMEZ
MTNS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW MTNS. THIS
AREA OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...BUT AS THIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED...RAIN SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CONTINUE...BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND BACK
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT POPCORN CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REGARDLESS...NOT
LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE SW MTNS.
THE TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING FAR SE NM IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO BULGE NORTHWARD INTO SC AND SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS AND TRENDED
TEMPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A T-STORM
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL START TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF NM AND MUCH DRIER AIR BENEATH
A WEAK RIDGE WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME MID TO LATE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS WELL...WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STORM OVER BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY
FAVORING THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE NORTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN FAVOR WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE
SUNDAY. WETTING RAINS WILL BE SCARCE SATURDAY...IF ANY AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET...WITH MOSTLY TEENS ON SUNDAY ASIDE
FROM THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE ONLY POOR RATES IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...THEN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SUNDAY.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
EAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 106...THEN REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS
ON TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL DROP
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. THIS WILL ELIMINATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS MINIMUM RH VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WHILE RH
VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY IN THE THICK OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. RAIN
WITH PATCHY FOG...AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW...IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
AREA. IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 OVER EASTERN
NM WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE AS PRECIP EXITS THE AREA.
THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS A COLD FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHORT-
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GAP WINDS AROUND KABQ MAY FORCE IMPACTS FARTHER
TO THE WEST HOWEVER STILL SOME MVFR CIGS ARE ON TAP THROUGH 15Z.
AMOUNT OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL BE A CHALLENGE.
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 65 35 68 35 / 10 5 5 5
DULCE........................... 56 29 63 29 / 30 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 54 33 62 32 / 40 20 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 59 30 65 26 / 30 10 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 51 31 59 29 / 40 30 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 55 28 65 25 / 50 20 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 54 31 60 29 / 40 30 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 66 39 70 39 / 30 20 5 5
CHAMA........................... 52 26 57 26 / 40 30 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 36 60 38 / 40 20 20 10
PECOS........................... 50 34 60 36 / 30 20 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 26 59 27 / 30 20 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 44 24 51 25 / 40 30 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 21 54 22 / 40 30 10 5
TAOS............................ 53 29 61 28 / 20 10 10 5
MORA............................ 49 31 59 31 / 30 20 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 57 36 66 37 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 36 60 38 / 30 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 34 64 35 / 30 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 39 66 41 / 30 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 41 68 42 / 30 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 38 69 38 / 30 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 39 69 39 / 30 10 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 37 70 36 / 20 10 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 40 69 40 / 30 10 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 62 41 69 41 / 20 10 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 36 62 38 / 40 20 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 54 37 65 37 / 40 10 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 29 64 29 / 30 10 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 34 62 36 / 30 10 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 36 64 37 / 30 10 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 40 65 40 / 20 10 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 54 35 58 39 / 20 10 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 56 34 65 33 / 5 5 10 5
RATON........................... 57 31 67 31 / 10 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 57 32 66 33 / 10 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 31 63 33 / 30 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 60 40 70 42 / 5 0 5 5
ROY............................. 56 36 66 37 / 5 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 40 70 41 / 10 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 39 69 40 / 20 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 40 71 40 / 10 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 60 41 65 41 / 5 0 10 10
PORTALES........................ 61 40 64 40 / 5 0 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 40 66 41 / 10 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 63 44 63 43 / 5 10 30 20
PICACHO......................... 56 40 61 41 / 10 10 20 10
ELK............................. 53 39 57 40 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A NARROW BAND. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING (UPPER JET SUPPORT)
AND PWATS NEAR 0.4-0.5 INCHES SUPPORT A BANDED EVENT. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING AROUND 0.3 INCHES QPF WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND...WITH THE WRFARW4 AND WRFNMM4 INDICATING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
QPF. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND FROM LANGDON
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI. OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTS
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE NOW AROUND
32F...AND THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALLOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES (EVEN IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME). WITH THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THE LOCATION IN QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAND ACTUALLY SETS UP. DID ISSUE AN SPS ATTEMPTING TO DESCRIBE
THE SITUATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60F CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM COULD BRING A TEMPORARY RETURN OF
WINTER CONDITIONS AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS ROCKIES AND EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE SFC LOW
OUT OF NE WY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THEN SPEEDING UP AND
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE GFS. BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK THE
LOW ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR AND BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR CWA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THICKNESS
VALUES FALL BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND ANY WRAP AROUND TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN RECORD HIGHS AND MARCH LIKE WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
TRIED TO GIVE BEST IDEAS OF TIMING ON THE SNOW BAND THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI AREAS FRIDAY. KFAR SHOULD BE MORE ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW BAND SO THEY SHOULD AVOID THE
LOWER VSBYS AND CLOUDS THAT WILL HIT THE OTHER 4 SITES. LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SNOW PRETTY HEAVILY RIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR SO
WENT WITH LOW VSBYS/CLOUDS AS A FIRST GUESS. LATEST MODELS ARE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW HERE. THINKING IT WILL BE
A 4 HOUR WINDOW OR SO OF HEAVY SNOW BEFORE IT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
IMPROVE AGAIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT.
BASICALLY INCREASED TO 100 POPS ACROSS MY NORTH. MAY SEE SPORADIC
SLEET OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON WHAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DO FOR THE REST OF THE AM HOURS...SO OPTED TO THROW THIS MENTION
INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY...WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE
NEXT SYSTEM IS SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST. WILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TENDS LOOK OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
A GOOD WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE WIND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A RAPID
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER. IT IS NOW CLEAR ALL THE WAY TO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THAT WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
ALSO KEEPING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CLOUDS CLEAR MIXING WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST.
THE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS AND 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS. THEREAFTER...A RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY
18 UTC. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...QUICKLY DECREASING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE...NEAR THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC SUITE...GIVEN THE BIAS TO BE TOO COLD SO FAR IN
A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD INSOLATION THIS MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015
SEVERAL PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THE FIRST STORM...AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW...
WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW...POTENT LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS (RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A AN 80 KNOT JET)
COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE MAIN AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THE NEXT...AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER...STORM SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH SOLUTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF RUN
IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO IT DOES
APPEAR THAT AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
IMPACTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...DEFORMATION BANDING...AND POTENTIAL TROW SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOWFALL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. DYNAMIC COOLING IN
SNOWBANDS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT REGARDLESS
IT APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HAVE TO TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST. IF TRENDS AND
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN-KMOT WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
425 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CENTER AROUND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES CONFINED TO NARROW AXES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS WEST TO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME TO 1PM THIS AFTERNOON. A
SEGMENTED WATCH COULD HAVE BEEN MADE BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MESSAGING AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE. THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE POSTED BY 6AM THIS MORNING. THE WATCH WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD GIVEN
NEW HI-RES ARW/NMM SUPPORT AND A BULLISH HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY OF THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT VAL VERDE COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS
FOR HIGHER TOTALS WHERE LIMITED SOIL DEPTH WITH COMPOUND FLOODING
ISSUES QUICKLY.
AT THIS TIME...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO
TOWARD FORTH WORTH AND MOVING SOUTH. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING
STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS
AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND AS ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM A WEAK EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FURTHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-DAY INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBTLE MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AIDING IN MID LEVEL COOLING...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RANGE FROM 300 J/KG IN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 1000
J/KG ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE NE TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. FEEL THIS AREA WHERE BEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FEEL THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING TREND BY EVENING WITH RAINFALL RATES
LOWERING AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN IMPULSES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER RAIN LOOKS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EJECTS AHEAD OF THE PARENT CUT-FF LOW AND
H5 TO H3 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE EITHER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OR
JUST SOUTHEAST. THIS BANDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TAPPING INTO PWATS OF 1.5" TO 1.8" AND FEEL THIS TIME
FRAME FROM 1AM SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION AND GEOGRAPHICAL PLACEMENT FOR
FLOODING ISSUES. FINALLY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND HELP
SLOWLY DIMINISH RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS NE TEXAS.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW 0.9" PWATS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZED AND DRY THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE JET STREAM SHIFTING NORTH. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM LOOKS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING COULD HELP BUCKLE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH ONCE GAIN AND FORCE ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SITUATION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEK. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 58 66 58 74 / 80 100 90 70 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 59 65 58 73 / 80 100 100 70 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 67 58 76 / 70 100 100 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 55 63 56 71 / 80 80 80 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 59 69 56 79 / 80 80 80 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 57 64 57 72 / 80 100 90 70 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 68 57 77 / 80 90 90 50 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 66 57 75 / 70 100 100 70 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 62 68 60 74 / 70 100 100 70 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 60 67 59 76 / 70 100 90 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 68 59 77 / 70 100 90 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OT THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING THEN HEAD NORTH ALONG INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE TYPE OF PRECIP FALLING NORTH OF A
LWB-LYH LINE...MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS
SHOWING MIX OF SNOW/SLEET THRU MORNING IN THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS...AND BASED ON SFC OBS AND DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS WITH
CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM IS DOING A PRETTY DECENT JOB.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE...AND MOST CASES NOT REALLY MOVING AT
ALL. BLACKSBURG HAS BEEN STUCK AT 32-33F FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS.
LOOKING AT RADAR...THE LATEST HRRR STILL DOING A FAIRLY DECENT JOB
WITH LOCATION AND WILL FOLLOW IT BUT RAISE POPS A LITTLE HIGHER TO
ACCOUNT FOR OVERSHOOTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. STILL MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF A MKJ-AVC WHICH IS MARION/WYTHEVILLE TO SOUTH HILL VA
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
WHILE BETTER QPF OCCURS NORTH...AND MORESO FROM BKW-LYH NORTH.
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SMALL UP TO AN INCH IN THE
ALLEGHANYS ABOVE 3000 FT.
SHOULD SEE THINGS TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF TO DZ/--RA ONCE THE MAIN
OVERRUNNING AND LIFT SHIFT EAST AND NORTH TOWARD THE COAST AND NRN
VA BY MORNING. ADDED FOG TO MOST OF OUR RIDGES AND ESPECIALLY BLUE
RIDGE.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW WILL BE NEAR ILM NC...AND THEN PROGRESS NE
THRU THE DAY. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNTIL THAT
TIME...EXPECT THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TO HOLD FAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE COASTAL LOW. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR A RESURGENCE IN
THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LACKING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE WHILE THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS STILL IN PLACE.
IRONICALLY...IT WILL TAKE THE COLD FRONT TO HELP MIX THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND START TO THIN OUT THE CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE EAST
TO HELP TEMPERATURES RISE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS LEFT OVER LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
HAVE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SPLIT FLOW WITH BROAD EASTERN UNITED STATES TROF ON MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERN TROF AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS SUPPRESSED ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR A WEDGE ON MONDAY. CAD WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY INVERTED
TROFFING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM ON TUESDAY
MAY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WARMING TREND ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT. ECMWF SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLASSIC WEDGE SCENARIO CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST SURGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS
PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE WEDGE AND THIS
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THE WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT LOW CIGS IN
ADDITION TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THROUGH NOON TODAY EXPECT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. AFTER NOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND
MORE FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF
CIGS/VSBYS...MOST READILY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN...BUT SLOWER IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEST
OF THE RIDGE AS NW FLOW IS UPSLOPE AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVERALL EXCEPT
GUSTY NEAR RIDGE CRESTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MARKS THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER WEDGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
855 AM MST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX.
DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BAND
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AZ. RADAR IMAGERY IS
NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIP ECHOES IN THAT AREA AT THIS TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MOST SITES IN AZ SHOWING
LESS THAN 5 DEG DEW POINT DEPRESSION. INDEED...THE VIS DOES INDICATE
SOME AREAS OF LINGERING FOG...ALTHOUGH NOT IN OUR CWA BUT SOME
POCKETS CAN BE SEEN PRIMARILY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. IT IS HARD TO
DETECT IF THERE IS ANY FOG IN MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES DUE TO
THAT MID CLOUD LAYER BLOCKING THE SATELLITE VIEW. STILL...COULD NOT
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LINGERING MORNING
FOG IN SOME ISOLATED VALLEY AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR CWA ARE
SHOWING UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS MORNING AND APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET
FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW BUT STILL A GOOD BELT OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE LOW...FROM NORTHERN BAJA UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST AZ ON UP TO
NORTHWEST NM. ALSO ON WV IMAGERY SOME SIGNS OF A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A DRY SLOT SHOWING FROM OVER SAN
DIEGO UP THROUGH THE LAKE MEAD...COLORADO RIVER REGION. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLIES ONCE
THE LOW REACHES WEST TEXAS LATER ON SATURDAY. BY THEN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER AND BUILD BACK SOME RIDGING OVER AZ AND CA.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER NEW TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INSIDE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ATTEMPT TO CUTOFF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVELY CALLING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRONOUNCED CUT OFF LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS ATTM NOT THAT STRONG AS TO WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE
FELT IN OUR REGION AS THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SO...WE SHALL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS MUCH
CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND OR PRECIP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 155 MST FRI MAR 20 2015/...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THE LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD SINCE THURSDAY EVENING AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA /MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA/ AS OF 0830Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND ENOUGH BL MIXING TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST VALLEY FROM BUCKEYE INTO LA PAZ COUNTY
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. AREA WEBCAMS
ARE FOG FREE AS WELL AND I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND THE
MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
AS SUCH...I REFINED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THE METRO AND CLOSER TO 50-60 POPS AROUND GLOBE/MIAMI AND POINTS
EAST. ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS MLCAPES /WHILE LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ WILL APPROACH 100-250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT ON SATURDAY
/DEWPOINTS WILL FALL NOTICEABLY INTO THE LOWER 40S AND MID 30S/ WHILE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS MORNING`S
00Z SUITE OF OPERATIONAL MODELS DON`T INDICATE A REMARKABLE RISE IN
500MB HEIGHTS /ONLY FORECAST TO REACH APPROX 578-580DM/ AND THUS I
WON`T FORECAST ANYTHING NEAR RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ITS OVER-
LAND TRAJECTORY I WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED AND THE NAEFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS WITH A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...FELT IT WORTHWHILE TO INCLUDE CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE DEPARTING THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY
03Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH USUAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS.
GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST...NORTH AND SE
VALLEY WITH KPHX ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ACCUMULATIONS...FEEL THAT AT
LEAST KSDL COULD SEE A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME VCFG FRIDAY AM IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH...OR AT THE LEAST A REDUCTION IN VIS. KEEPING
MENTION OF VCFG MENTION IN TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW TO SCT MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT TODAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...LOWERING
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
DESERTS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF GLOBE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB WITH THE WARMER
LOWER DESERTS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY...THEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF WITH DESERTS READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RATHER LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WATERS/LEINS
AVIATION....DEWEY/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...BRECKENRIDGE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
526 AM MST FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX.
DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 155 MST FRI MAR 20 2015/...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THE LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD SINCE THURSDAY EVENING AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA /MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA/ AS OF 0830Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND ENOUGH BL MIXING TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST VALLEY FROM BUCKEYE INTO LA PAZ COUNTY
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. AREA WEBCAMS
ARE FOG FREE AS WELL AND I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND THE
MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
AS SUCH...I REFINED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THE METRO AND CLOSER TO 50-60 POPS AROUND GLOBE/MIAMI AND POINTS
EAST. ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS MLCAPES /WHILE LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ WILL APPROACH 100-250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT ON SATURDAY
/DEWPOINTS WILL FALL NOTICEABLY INTO THE LOWER 40S AND MID 30S/ WHILE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS MORNING`S
00Z SUITE OF OPERATIONAL MODELS DON`T INDICATE A REMARKABLE RISE IN
500MB HEIGHTS /ONLY FORECAST TO REACH APPROX 578-580DM/ AND THUS I
WON`T FORECAST ANYTHING NEAR RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ITS OVER-
LAND TRAJECTORY I WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED AND THE NAEFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS WITH A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...FELT IT WORTHWHILE TO INCLUDE CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE DEPARTING THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY
03Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH USUAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS.
GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST...NORTH AND SE
VALLEY WITH KPHX ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ACCUMULATIONS...FEEL THAT AT
LEAST KSDL COULD SEE A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME VCFG FRIDAY AM IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH...OR AT THE LEAST A REDUCTION IN VIS. KEEPING
MENTION OF VCFG MENTION IN TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW TO SCT MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT TODAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...LOWERING
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
DESERTS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF GLOBE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB WITH THE WARMER
LOWER DESERTS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY...THEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF WITH DESERTS READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RATHER LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION....DEWEY/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...BRECKENRIDGE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
436 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
RESIDUAL MTN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
FROM HRRR AND RAP13 AND PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL BE
TAKING DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE AS THESE AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE WEAK DEFORMATION/TROF
AXIS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. WILL ALSO CARRY SOME
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING.
FOR TODAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR MOST AREAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALL MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE SPOTTY...BUT LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. LEE TROF SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...AMOUNT OF IMPACT NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST DISTRICT LATER NEXT WEEK AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BASICALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER METEOROLOGICAL REGIME IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. IN
ADDITION...WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 6C AT TIMES ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM
ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE -8C AT TIMES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT
KALS AS CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST SURFACE LAYER LEADS TO PATCHY FOG
FORMATION ON THE VALLEY FLOOR. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND 15Z.
KPUB COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT DON`T THINK VIS WILL DROP
BELOW VFR TO PERHAPS BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. KCOS MAY KEEP ENOUGH OF
A DRAINAGE WIND TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL VIS AND CIGS COULD
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
CONFINED TO THE MTN AREAS WITH KALS REMAINING VFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE THE TRAILING LIGHT
RAIN WITH IT...THOUGH A FEW POCKETS WILL REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...THERE IS SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THERE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO LESS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BECOMING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LAST OF THE RAIN
PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE TUNED THE
T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND
HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN HAS FILLED BACK IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FIRST BAND OF BETTER RETURNS WILL EXIT
FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR.
ANOTHER MORE SUSTAINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS COMING IN FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND HOLDING
TOGETHER WELL AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND
10 AM. FRESHENED UP THE POPS...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE IN THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING
TEMPORARILY BUCKLED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
FRONT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON.
WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DOWN AROUND 40 ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO RETURN TO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
PERIOD BEGINS QUIET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER MORE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT. WE BEGIN WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS TX MOVE
EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE NORTHERN STREAM AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO DO HAVE A
SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THIS AS ECMWF IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS AT THIS
POINT. A WEAK WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHEAST...AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THEN
GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE DIVERGENT AS WE MOVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST BY THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS SLOWS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DID STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND POPS AT THIS POINT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN THAT IT DOES SEEM WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WE MOVE INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER HAVE NO MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S AND 60S WITH PERHAPS WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE HIGHS
COULD NEAR THE 70S. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL KEEP MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR STATUS BY LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN HAS FILLED BACK IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FIRST BAND OF BETTER RETURNS WILL EXIT
FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR.
ANOTHER MORE SUSTAINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS COMING IN FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND HOLDING
TOGETHER WELL AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND
10 AM. FRESHENED UP THE POPS...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE IN THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING
TEMPORARILY BUCKLED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
FRONT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON.
WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DOWN AROUND 40 ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO RETURN TO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
PERIOD BEGINS QUIET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER MORE OF NW FLOW
ALOFT. WE BEGIN WATCHING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS TX MOVE
EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOUTH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WE
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A SHORTWAVE ALONG
THE NORTHERN STREAM AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO DO HAVE A
SLIGHT POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH THIS AS ECMWF IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS AT THIS
POINT. A WEAK WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHEAST...AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THEN
GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE DIVERGENT AS WE MOVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOST OF THE PRECIP EAST BY THURSDAY. WHILE
THE GFS SLOWS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS
A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DID STICK CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND POPS AT THIS POINT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
SPOTS GIVEN THAT IT DOES SEEM WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WE MOVE INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER HAVE NO MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S AND 60S WITH PERHAPS WARMER TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE HIGHS
COULD NEAR THE 70S. LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL KEEP MAINLY IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR STATUS BY LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
700 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CUBA. TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES FULL SUN AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES
BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOLLOWING RUC FORECAST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER
READINGS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
AND OFF FIRE CONCERNS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A FEW SHOTS AT
RAINFALL/THUNDER...YES PRECIP...NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT NOT GREAT
SHOTS.
SATURDAY A STALLING COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. QUESTION IS HOW FAR IT MAKES IT INTO N
CENTRAL NEB AS TO TEMPS THERE. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS SOAR BACK TO 14C TO 18C. GUIDANCE RETURNS
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER VALUES. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...STILL MILD AIR FOR FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...15 MPH
OR LESS...SO WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING STILL IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS FASTER...BRINGING
COLD AIR CLOSER TO THE CWA....WHICH MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
TEMP FORECAST. MIXING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS
UP SO STILL WENT WITH 60S AND 70S AGAIN. MODELS IN GENERALLY HAVE
INCREASE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT FOCUSING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...SO TRIMMED INHERITED POPS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. DRY SLOT
ACROSS SW WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WITH LOW POPS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED MOST OF THE PRECIP IS JUST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS FAVORS AN ELEVATED TROUGH TO LIFT NE ACROSS
THE AREA. A NEG ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX AND MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDER. LINGERING T CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AS THE ACTIVITY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SOME ARCTIC AIR FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO. LACK OF
MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN WITH PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE COOLER
TEMPS COULD RESULT IN RAIN MAYBE MIXING WITH SNOW WED NIGHT IF IT
HAS NOT EXITED YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES TODAY. MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL CENTER ON
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AS WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE LAST MONTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE WITH STRONGER WIND FORECAST AS COOL FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED DUE TO LOW RH AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
651 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...MADE A FEW UPDATES FOR THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST MAINLY ADDRESSING TWO ITEMS:
1) ALTHOUGH APPARENTLY QUITE SMALL IN AREAL EXTENT...AUTOMATED
OBS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GROUND TRUTH INCLUDING SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS IN FACT
BECOME AN ISSUE THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ONLY IN MITCHELL COUNTY
KS AND POSSIBLY IN IMMEDIATELY-BORDERING PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A 1-COUNTY DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ICT/TOP OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FORMAL HEADLINE...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT (SPSGID) CONCERNING THIS FOG THROUGH 9 AM.
2) LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DROP A TOUCH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...AND IT NOW APPEARS MOST OF THE CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 23-28 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD NOW DOWN TO
20. ASSUMING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WE ARE
IN FOR A NOTABLE 40-50 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMP RISE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
IF NOT FOR THE NOW-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD 24 HOURS WITH ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES...EFFECTIVELY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP...AND A NICE WARM UP INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A
COMPLAINT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. FOR THOSE WITH
PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE FIRE DANGER DETAILS TODAY...PLEASE
REFER TO THE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW AS THIS TOPIC WILL NOT BE
ADDRESSED ANY FURTHER IN THIS MAIN SHORT TERM SECTION.
STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM...THE ENTIRE CWA
SITS UNDER ESSENTIALLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AS THE MASS OF CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS SUNK WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA IS TRULY FREE OF ALL WEATHER CONCERNS...AN AREA OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AROUND 30 DEGREES RESIDING NEAR A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUCH AS THAYER/JEWELL/MITCHELL IS PROMOTING
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...WITH THE BELOIT AIRPORT EVEN
SUGGESTING IT COULD BE PATCHY DENSE ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED IN MANY
AREAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 25-32 RANGE. TURNING TO THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER RATHER WEAK FLOW THANKS TO
BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UPPER JET
BRANCHES IN THIS LARGE-SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH CENTERED MAINLY FROM CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH ORIENTED FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EASTWARD.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH 8 AM): AS MENTIONED ABOVE
ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON-OSBORNE LINE WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS
POINT...PATCHY DENSE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MAY ADD THIS
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE LATEST 07Z HRRR VISIBILITY PROG HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS
SMALL-SCALE AREA OF AT LEAST LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL.
TODAY: ONCE ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG BURNS OFF IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BY MOST FOLKS STANDARDS WE ARE LEFT WITH A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT DAY WITH A BIT OF BREEZE (ESPECIALLY NORTH) AND
ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ESSENTIALLY NIL FORCING IN FAIRLY WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE "QUIET ZONE" BETWEEN THE
MAIN JET BRANCHES IN THE SPLIT REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ALONG WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WILL PROMOTE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THESE BREEZES WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEP DIURNAL MIXING PROGGED TO REACH UP
TO AROUND 750 MILLIBARS PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOCUSED NORTH OF I-80...THAT
IS WHERE THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH WILL EXIST...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...AND THUS KS ZONES
ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATED...YET AGAIN AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ON
SEVERAL DAYS THIS MONTH...VARIOUS SETS OF MODELS/GUIDANCE APPEAR
TO BE TOO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE NOT GONE LOW ENOUGH...FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO
GFS/RAP VALUES WITH DEWS AVERAGING WELL DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...THIS SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
WIND REGIME SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT EVERY BIT OF WARMING POTENTIAL THAT
IT CAN...AND NUDGED HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA UP ANOTHER 1-2
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM 73-75 RANGE MOST PLACES. BY
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AFTER 6 PM)...THE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS SHOULD BE ON A FAIRLY STEADY DECLINE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: QUIET/ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE WEATHER
PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASINGLY-BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
NEBRASKA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...EMANATING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER REGION. ALL THIS REALLY MEANS LOCALLY IS THAT WHILE THE
EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES OF
5-10 MPH...THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD MAINLY INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...MARKED BY A
SWITCH TO FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES. GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES...WE MAY BE FACING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS...BUT GIVEN
THE NOTICEABLY WARMER START TO THE NIGHT THIS TIME
AROUND...GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS TO HOLD UP ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWS AIMED 35-39 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND COLDER LOW 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL
VALLEY/GREELEY/DAWSON COUNTY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTUALLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF INTERESTING WEATHER IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN START TO COOL BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH SPRING STARTS TODAY AT 2245Z...SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
FULL DAY OF SPRING AND IT WILL BE A NICE ONE. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
REASONABLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK UP
INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ALL THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTS IN SOME 500+ CAPE
VALUES BY AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLID THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO THE EAST...OR MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS THIS EVENT WILL BE GET GOING FURTHER EAST AND LATER
IN THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK AND HUGGED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS PRETTY SMALL BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE WISE AT
THIS TIME.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL RIDE OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO
KICK IN AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY
UNSTABLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO
THE AREA. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ALSO SUPPORTS AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SIGNS NOW POINT
TOWARD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.35 RANGE...BUT IT IS EARLY.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. SUCH A LOW POSITION HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO SWEEP SOME DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ABOARD WESTERLY WINDS. SO DESPITE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAPID DRYING
MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE LATE THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
AREAS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR
TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THE COOLER TEMPS
ARE REALLY ONLY ABOUT NORMAL AT THE COOLEST. PEERING AHEAD
A BIT FURTHER...WHATEVER RAIN WE MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK
COULD BE PRETTY HANDY...AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE END OF THE MONTH LOOKS IFFY AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WITH ESSENTIALLY NO SKY COVER WHATSOEVER ANTICIPATED...CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE HIGH IN CONTINUED VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY. THAT LEAVES
WIND AS THE MAIN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY A PERIOD OF MODEST GUSTINESS
THIS AFTERNOON. STARTING OFF THIS MORNING...VERY LIGHT WESTERLY
BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP WITH TIME...BEFORE PEAKING IN
INTENSITY MAINLY DURING THE 18Z-23Z TIME FRAME THIS
AFTERNOON...DURING WHICH GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE UP AROUND 22KT. BY
SUNSET BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE TO SPEEDS AT/BELOW 10KT...AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DIRECTIONAL CHANGE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO VARIABLE/NORTHERLY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING:
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...TODAY IS NOW
OFFICIALLY CONSIDERED A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE COORDINATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES LBF/OAX ON AN UPGRADE/EXPANSION OF THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING VALID FROM 18Z-
01Z/1PM-8PM. JUST AS A QUICK REVIEW FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE
UNFAMILIAR WITH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA: "CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN
OUR CWA IS DEFINED AS THE 3+ HOUR OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) OF 20 PERCENT-OR-LOWER AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF 20 MPH/25
MPH. "NEAR-CRITICAL" IS DEFINED AS THE OVERLAP OF 25 PERCENT-OR-
LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS OF 15 MPH/20 MPH (IN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY VEGETATION OF COURSE).
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN REACHING
CRITICAL CRITERIA...WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY CRASH INTO
THE 14-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH
SOME PLACES IN THE WARNING MAY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 20+ MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SPEEDS ALL AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING SEMI-FREQUENT 25+ MPH GUSTS GIVEN
DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. OF COURSE...IT IS
ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN OUTSIDE THE OFFICIAL RED
FLAG AREA...AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CERTAINLY
EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES BETWEEN I-80 AND THE STATE LINE
WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 20+ MPH SHOULD EXIST. ALTHOUGH NOT
"TOTALLY SAFE" BY ANY MEANS...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES SHOULD BE
UNDER THE LEAST-OVERALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT EVEN
GUSTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF 20 MPH. ON ONE LAST NOTE...THE WARNING
END TIME OF 8PM IS PROBABLY PLENTY GENEROUS GIVEN THAT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REALLY SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 7PM IF NOT SOONER...BUT
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES SHOULD DROP...WOULD RATHER GIVE LATER
SHIFTS A CHANCE TO CANCEL A BIT EARLY THAN HAVE TO EXTEND.
BEYOND TODAY:
DESPITE THE FACT THERE ARE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION PEPPERED IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME PRETTY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. ANOTHER MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS A
NORTHWEST WIND TAKES HOLD IN A POST FRONT REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT MARGINAL AND IT
WILL BE TOTALLY BASED ON TIMING. SIMILAR DEAL ON TUESDAY BUT THIS
TIME STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP
CREATE A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON...AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST. IT DOESN/T LOOK AS WARM BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COULD REALLY TANK...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW THE ONGOING
FORECAST. AGAIN... TIMING IS THE KEY AND THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED ONE TO WATCH AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
722 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND GRANTS. THOUGH
SOME WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BEFORE 18Z...BEST COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES ALREADY OUT. 34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...606 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER CIBOLA...SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
AND WEST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES. THEY SHOULD END BY 15Z.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT LAM AND SRR SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOUGH
CALL TONIGHT ON EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY FORM. WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...NOR WILL AMOUNTS BE AS GREAT. NONETHELESS...PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE FAVORED. ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FAVOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THOUGH SPOTTY HIGH TERRAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF MARCH...ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS PERSISTING THIS MORNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE JEMEZ
MTNS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW MTNS. THIS
AREA OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...BUT AS THIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED...RAIN SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CONTINUE...BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND BACK
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT POPCORN CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REGARDLESS...NOT
LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE SW MTNS.
THE TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING FAR SE NM IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO BULGE NORTHWARD INTO SC AND SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS AND TRENDED
TEMPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A T-STORM
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL START TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF NM AND MUCH DRIER AIR BENEATH
A WEAK RIDGE WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME MID TO LATE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS WELL...WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STAY TUNED. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STORM OVER BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY
FAVORING THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE NORTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN FAVOR WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE
SUNDAY. WETTING RAINS WILL BE SCARCE SATURDAY...IF ANY AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET...WITH MOSTLY TEENS ON SUNDAY ASIDE
FROM THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE ONLY POOR RATES IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...THEN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SUNDAY.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
EAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 106...THEN REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS
ON TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL DROP
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. THIS WILL ELIMINATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS MINIMUM RH VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WHILE RH
VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY. CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
606 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER CIBOLA...SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
AND WEST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES. THEY SHOULD END BY 15Z.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT LAM AND SRR SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MAIN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TOUGH
CALL TONIGHT ON EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT MAY FORM. WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP TAFS MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...NOR WILL AMOUNTS BE AS GREAT. NONETHELESS...PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE FAVORED. ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FAVOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THOUGH SPOTTY HIGH TERRAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF MARCH...ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS PERSISTING THIS MORNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE JEMEZ
MTNS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW MTNS. THIS
AREA OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...BUT AS THIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED...RAIN SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CONTINUE...BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND BACK
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT POPCORN CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REGARDLESS...NOT
LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE SW MTNS.
THE TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING FAR SE NM IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO BULGE NORTHWARD INTO SC AND SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS AND TRENDED
TEMPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A T-STORM
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL START TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF NM AND MUCH DRIER AIR BENEATH
A WEAK RIDGE WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME MID TO LATE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS WELL...WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STAY TUNED. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STORM OVER BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY
FAVORING THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE NORTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN FAVOR WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE
SUNDAY. WETTING RAINS WILL BE SCARCE SATURDAY...IF ANY AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET...WITH MOSTLY TEENS ON SUNDAY ASIDE
FROM THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE ONLY POOR RATES IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...THEN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SUNDAY.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
EAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 106...THEN REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS
ON TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL DROP
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. THIS WILL ELIMINATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS MINIMUM RH VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WHILE RH
VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY. CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
957 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO SHRINK POPS ON EITHER SIDE OF NARROW SNOW
BAND SHIFTING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN. THIS IS
SETTING UP TO BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME ISOLD 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW FA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HEAVIER AREA OF SNOW HAS SET UP AS EXPECTED AND IS SET TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. VIEWING WEBCAMS...IT HAS STARTED
SNOWING LIGHTLY IN DEVILS LAKE AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AND
THE ROADS ARE WET. FURTHER WEST INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ROADS
ARE BECOMING COVERED WITH SNOW...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION (WHICH MAKES SENSE IF RATES ARE AN INCH PER
HOUR). THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAT WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF (3 HOURS OR
LESS)...WHICH MEANS GIVEN CURRENT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH/HOUR
THAT AREAS WITHIN THIS HEAVIER BAND WILL RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. SINCE THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADS WHERE THE SNOW IS
LIGHTER...THIS SNOWFALL WILL NOT ADD TO THE OVERALL SNOWFALL.
THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE 2-3 INCHES IN A SHORT
DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES). THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...RAP...AND HOPWRF HAVE DECREASED
OVERALL QPF...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE WHY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A NARROW BAND. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING (UPPER JET SUPPORT)
AND PWATS NEAR 0.4-0.5 INCHES SUPPORT A BANDED EVENT. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING AROUND 0.3 INCHES QPF WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND...WITH THE WRFARW4 AND WRFNMM4 INDICATING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
QPF. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND FROM LANGDON
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI. OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTS
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE NOW AROUND
32F...AND THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALLOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES (EVEN IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME). WITH THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THE LOCATION IN QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAND ACTUALLY SETS UP. DID ISSUE AN SPS ATTEMPTING TO DESCRIBE
THE SITUATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60F CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM COULD BRING A TEMPORARY RETURN OF
WINTER CONDITIONS AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS ROCKIES AND EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE SFC LOW
OUT OF NE WY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THEN SPEEDING UP AND
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE GFS. BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK THE
LOW ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR AND BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR CWA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THICKNESS
VALUES FALL BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND ANY WRAP AROUND TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN RECORD HIGHS AND MARCH LIKE WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
BAND OF SNOW AND LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A 2-5
HOUR PERIOD. KFAR WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE AFFECTED. AFTER BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HEAVIER AREA OF SNOW HAS SET UP AS EXPECTED AND IS SET TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. VIEWING WEBCAMS...IT HAS STARTED
SNOWING LIGHTLY IN DEVILS LAKE AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AND
THE ROADS ARE WET. FURTHER WEST INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ROADS
ARE BECOMING COVERED WITH SNOW...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION (WHICH MAKES SENSE IF RATES ARE AN INCH PER
HOUR). THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAT WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF (3 HOURS OR
LESS)...WHICH MEANS GIVEN CURRENT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH/HOUR
THAT AREAS WITHIN THIS HEAVIER BAND WILL RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. SINCE THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADS WHERE THE SNOW IS
LIGHTER...THIS SNOWFALL WILL NOT ADD TO THE OVERALL SNOWFALL.
THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE 2-3 INCHES IN A SHORT
DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES). THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...RAP...AND HOPWRF HAVE DECREASED
OVERALL QPF...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE WHY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A NARROW BAND. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING (UPPER JET SUPPORT)
AND PWATS NEAR 0.4-0.5 INCHES SUPPORT A BANDED EVENT. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING AROUND 0.3 INCHES QPF WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND...WITH THE WRFARW4 AND WRFNMM4 INDICATING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
QPF. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND FROM LANGDON
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI. OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTS
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE NOW AROUND
32F...AND THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALLOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES (EVEN IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME). WITH THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THE LOCATION IN QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAND ACTUALLY SETS UP. DID ISSUE AN SPS ATTEMPTING TO DESCRIBE
THE SITUATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60F CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM COULD BRING A TEMPORARY RETURN OF
WINTER CONDITIONS AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS ROCKIES AND EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE SFC LOW
OUT OF NE WY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THEN SPEEDING UP AND
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE GFS. BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK THE
LOW ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR AND BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR CWA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THICKNESS
VALUES FALL BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND ANY WRAP AROUND TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN RECORD HIGHS AND MARCH LIKE WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
BAND OF SNOW AND LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A 2-5
HOUR PERIOD. KFAR WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE AFFECTED. AFTER BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
857 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
MOSTLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL. ALSO A HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS THINK ENOUGH TI BLOCK OUT THE SUN WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SLOW DOWN
THE AMOUNT OF WARMING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON AVERAGE. ALSO TRIMMED DOWN POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND NORTHERN CASCADES. WHILE I COULD
NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, WERE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT (850 MB) OVER THE
MARINE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LIFTED INDICES ARE BARELY
IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR TONIGHT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
GFS IS MORE STABLE. BOTTOM LINE IS WE`LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT, BUT BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA,
IT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS AT THE COOS COAST (INCLUDING
KOTH) WHERE MARINE STRATUS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN
THE COAST AFTER 21Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
-SVEN
&&
.MARINE....UPDATED 530 AM PDT FRIDAY 20 MAR 2015...A COLD FRONT
BRINGS MODERATE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WITH THIS FRONT BUT A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. -SVEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO KICK IN TODAY, WITH
THE FIRST OF TWO WET SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST, BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS. DESPITE THESE SMALL DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE IS VERY
GOOD. HAVE RELIED ON GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST, AND
WILL DISCUSS THE POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL MODEL DIFFERENCES AS THEY
COME.
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY, BRINGING A SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN A BIT AS IT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA, ENDING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BY
LATE MORNING. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. ANOTHER ASPECT WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT
THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS LINES UP
WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND WEST
SIDE OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVING TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA AND POSSIBLE INSTABILITY, FELT IT NECESSARY TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER, IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE NEXT FRONT APPEARS STRONGER AND WETTER, AND WILL PUSH ONSHORE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER TROUGH AND
COOLER AIR THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, AND WE WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP
FROM AROUND 6000 FEET SUNDAY TO BELOW 4000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY, AND WITH MODERATE RAINFALL RATES LIKELY, A
GOOD SOAKING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE WORKS. FOR AREAS ABOVE THE
SNOW LEVELS, SNOWFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT AS OF
NOW, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SNOW FORECAST FOR MANY OF THE HIGHER PASSES, AND THOSE
TRAVELING DURING THIS TIME WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS, SUCH AS THE SHASTA VALLEY, SUMMER
LAKE, AND THE EAST SIDE, LIKELY TO SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE ONSET
OF THE FRONT. THE GFS SOLUTIONS IS ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMING UP OFFSHORE TUESDAY, AND THIS
WOULD PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO
SOME AREAS. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES THIS, SO HAVE KEPT
THE WINDS DOWN FOR NOW, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WITH A
LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.
FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD RETURN
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM, AND CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES OVERNIGHT, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS CALM, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE
ONLY SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE, AND EVEN IT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST, BUT SUSPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
ASIDE FORM THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS
AND NEAR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BRING
A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL TO THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST HRRR SHOWS PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
FORCING WANES AND QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
FROM EARLIER...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WEAK LOW TOWARD SWRN PA
BY MIDDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SECONDARY FORMS ON THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND MOVES OUT OVER THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW(S) WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...THE ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE RATHER VIGOROUS. THE POTENT COUPLED UPPER
JET IS USED TO GENERATE A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA.
ROAD CONDITIONS TODAY...AS IS COMMON WITH PRACTICALLY ALL LATE
MARCH SNOWSTORMS...WILL BE STRONGLY DICTATED BY THE INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW. INITIALLY...WITH NEAR OR A FEW DEG F ABOVE FREEZING
RIGHT AT THE ONSET...ROADS WILL BE WET.
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES OF THE
LAURELS AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS WILL CONTAIN THE
BEST CHANCE OF ADVERSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY IN THE MID AFTERNOON
TODAY. AS THE PRECIP RATES DIMINISH BY 17-20Z EARLY
AFTERNOON...IMPACTS FROM ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THAT IS FALLING
WILL DECREASE AS TREATED ROADS...MARGINAL SKIN TEMPS AND THE HIGH
MARCH SUN ANGLES WILL ALL WORK TO MINIMIZE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
DEEP...MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PEEL AWAY TONIGHT...WHILE
EXTENSIVE/WARMER LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL DIP BACK INTO
U20S AND L30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX HEADING
SE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...PUSHING A SHARP COLD
FRONT THRU PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD OF FRONT SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND DRY WX IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. 12Z GEFS PLUMES AND
ECENS DATA IMPLY MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 32F OVR THE N MTNS AND AM LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS
TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR LKLY ARND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS SFC LOW TRACKS WEST OF PA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTN BUT NOT END UNTIL
THE 20-23Z TIMEFRAME AT MDT AND LNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME VIZ REDUCTIONS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WITH
WEAK SFC FLOW AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE MTNS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS WEST WITH ISOLD -SHSN PSBL. VFR CIGS IN THE
3000-5000` RANGE CENTRAL AND EAST. 20-30KT WIND GUSTS FROM
270-320 ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.
SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 645 PM EDT TODAY.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1047 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY...JUST PATCHY LIGHT ACTIVITY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY 00Z. HRRR AGREES WITH THIS AND WILL
THEREFORE BEGIN TO LOWER POPS FOR TODAY. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW BEFORE 1 PM...WITH LOW POPS ELSEWHERE.
OTW...CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE
UPPER 50S OR SO.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
CKV/BNA AND WELL THROUGH TONIGHT CSV IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY MVFR/IFR
THROUGH TODAY BNA/CKV BUT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING FOG HOWEVER EXPECTED TO FORM 08-12Z. CSV LIKELY
TO REMAIN LARGELY IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT BUT FOG EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP
BRINGING VSBYS BACK DOWN TOWARD 06Z AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 5 OR 6 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. BY NOON AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH RAIN CONTINUING SOUTHEAST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT END FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOOKING FOR CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE A FEW RAYS OF SUN. NOT AS COOL TODAY AS
YESTERDAY BUT NO BIG WARM UP EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
PLATEAU AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.
1021 MBAR SURFACE RIDGE TAKES OVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MID
STATE REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STARTS WORKING UPPER
TROUGH IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TEXAS...BELIEVE EURO HAS BEST
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR
THE SOUTH HALF OF MID STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE BUT GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST HALF SUNDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW REMAIN NEARBY. NO RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT I DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN BUMP UP POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES
EASTERN U.S. WITH ENERGY WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGHS NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AROUND 50 THURSDAY MORNING THEN IN THE 40S
FRIDAY MORNING AND IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE...AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 32 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN THE
SPRING AT NASHVILLE IS APRIL 6TH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 58 42 68 47 / 40 05 05 05
CLARKSVILLE 57 40 67 47 / 20 05 0 0
CROSSVILLE 55 39 65 43 / 50 10 10 05
COLUMBIA 60 42 67 47 / 40 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 61 43 69 48 / 40 10 10 20
WAVERLY 59 42 68 48 / 20 05 05 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FALL BACK TO IFR TONIGHT.
LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE
AT 5 TO 12 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
..PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CENTER AROUND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES CONFINED TO NARROW AXES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS WEST TO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME TO 1PM THIS AFTERNOON. A
SEGMENTED WATCH COULD HAVE BEEN MADE BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MESSAGING AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE. THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE POSTED BY 6AM THIS MORNING. THE WATCH WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD GIVEN
NEW HI-RES ARW/NMM SUPPORT AND A BULLISH HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT VAL VERDE COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS FOR HIGHER TOTALS WHERE LIMITED SOIL DEPTH WITH COMPOUND
FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY.
AT THIS TIME...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO
TOWARD FORTH WORTH AND MOVING SOUTH. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING
STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS
AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND AS ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM A WEAK EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FURTHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-DAY INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBTLE MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AIDING IN MID LEVEL COOLING...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RANGE FROM 300 J/KG IN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 1000
J/KG ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE NE TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. FEEL THIS AREA WHERE BEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FEEL THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING TREND BY EVENING WITH RAINFALL RATES
LOWERING AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN IMPULSES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER RAIN LOOKS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EJECTS AHEAD OF THE PARENT CUT-FF LOW AND
H5 TO H3 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE EITHER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OR
JUST SOUTHEAST. THIS BANDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TAPPING INTO PWATS OF 1.5" TO 1.8" AND FEEL THIS TIME
FRAME FROM 1AM SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION AND GEOGRAPHICAL PLACEMENT FOR
FLOODING ISSUES. FINALLY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND HELP
SLOWLY DIMINISH RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS NE TEXAS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW 0.9" PWATS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZED AND DRY THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE JET STREAM SHIFTING NORTH. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM LOOKS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING COULD HELP BUCKLE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH ONCE GAIN AND FORCE ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SITUATION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEK. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 58 66 58 74 / 100 100 90 70 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 59 65 58 73 / 100 100 100 70 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 67 58 76 / 90 100 100 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 55 63 56 71 / 100 80 80 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 59 69 56 79 / 100 80 80 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 57 64 57 72 / 100 100 90 70 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 68 57 77 / 100 90 90 50 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 66 57 75 / 90 100 100 70 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 62 68 60 74 / 90 100 100 70 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 60 67 59 76 / 90 100 90 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 68 59 77 / 90 100 90 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE REGION IS
DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BACK TO A WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...INCLUDING IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS IS BLOWING TOWARDS THE LOWER
DESERTS OR SOUTHWEST. WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE STORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW ISOLATED CELLS COULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO PHOENIX...PERHAPS OVER
THE SUPERSTITIONS OR MAZATZAL RANGE...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE SHOWING MOST SITES WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND REMNANT MOISTURE STILL SHOWING WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. THESE SHOULD BE FALLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE RETURN TO
BEING DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND DRIER
AIR.
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW BUT STILL A GOOD BELT OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE LOW...FROM NORTHERN BAJA UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST AZ ON UP TO
NORTHWEST NM. ALSO ON WV IMAGERY SOME SIGNS OF A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A DRY SLOT SHOWING FROM OVER SAN
DIEGO UP THROUGH THE LAKE MEAD...COLORADO RIVER REGION. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLIES ONCE
THE LOW REACHES WEST TEXAS LATER ON SATURDAY. BY THEN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER AND BUILD BACK SOME RIDGING OVER AZ AND CA.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER NEW TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INSIDE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ATTEMPT TO CUTOFF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVELY CALLING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A PRONOUNCED CUT OFF LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
CONFIDENCE LEVELS ATTM NOT THAT STRONG AS TO WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE
FELT IN OUR REGION AS THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SO...WE SHALL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS MUCH
CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND OR PRECIP FOR THE REGION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 155 MST FRI MAR 20 2015/...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT CIRCULATION. THE LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD SINCE THURSDAY EVENING AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA /MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA/ AS OF 0830Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
WITH RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND ENOUGH BL MIXING TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST VALLEY FROM BUCKEYE INTO LA PAZ COUNTY
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. AREA WEBCAMS
ARE FOG FREE AS WELL AND I WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA/ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND THE
MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL HI-RES MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR
INDICATE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
AS SUCH...I REFINED POPS SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THE METRO AND CLOSER TO 50-60 POPS AROUND GLOBE/MIAMI AND POINTS
EAST. ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS MLCAPES /WHILE LARGELY
UNIMPRESSIVE BY MONSOON STANDARDS/ WILL APPROACH 100-250 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DRY OUT ON SATURDAY
/DEWPOINTS WILL FALL NOTICEABLY INTO THE LOWER 40S AND MID 30S/ WHILE
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. THIS MORNING`S
00Z SUITE OF OPERATIONAL MODELS DON`T INDICATE A REMARKABLE RISE IN
500MB HEIGHTS /ONLY FORECAST TO REACH APPROX 578-580DM/ AND THUS I
WON`T FORECAST ANYTHING NEAR RECORD VALUES. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ARRIVE
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ITS OVER-
LAND TRAJECTORY I WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE
STARVED AND THE NAEFS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. NONETHELESS WITH A PERIOD
OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...FELT IT WORTHWHILE TO INCLUDE CLIMO-LIKE POPS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. IF NOTHING ELSE THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE DEPARTING THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8-10KFT RANGE...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY
03Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH USUAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS 8KTS OR LESS.
GIVEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE GREATEST ACROSS THE WEST...NORTH AND SE
VALLEY WITH KPHX ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ACCUMULATIONS...FEEL THAT AT
LEAST KSDL COULD SEE A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME VCFG FRIDAY AM IF SKIES
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH...OR AT THE LEAST A REDUCTION IN VIS. KEEPING
MENTION OF VCFG MENTION IN TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW TO SCT MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGHOUT TODAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...LOWERING
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
DESERTS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF GLOBE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB WITH THE WARMER
LOWER DESERTS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY...THEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL OFF WITH DESERTS READINGS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 PERCENT EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RATHER LIGHT
WEST WIND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...WATERS/LEINS
AVIATION....DEWEY/NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...BRECKENRIDGE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1111 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
RESIDUAL MTN SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
FROM HRRR AND RAP13 AND PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL BE
TAKING DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS THIS MORNING FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MTS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE AS THESE AREAS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE WEAK DEFORMATION/TROF
AXIS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. WILL ALSO CARRY SOME
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING.
FOR TODAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR MOST AREAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...ALL MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE SPOTTY...BUT LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. LEE TROF SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES...AMOUNT OF IMPACT NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE
FORECAST DISTRICT LATER NEXT WEEK AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL AT
TIMES.
RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BASICALLY DRY AND MILD TO WARM
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER METEOROLOGICAL REGIME IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINES WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. IN
ADDITION...WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 6C AT TIMES ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE COOLEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM
ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE -8C AT TIMES OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
KALS...ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THROUGH
18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS OR FOG TO DEVELOP BY 12Z/SAT.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
621 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS TO
THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER
VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST...AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION HAVE ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL HAS
BEEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST
REFLECTIVITY ECHOS ON KENX RADAR OVER THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND
NW CT.
WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...PRECIP LOOKS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR ALREADY SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
IT/S ADVANCING EASTWARD. THE LATEST 21Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE STEADY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM...WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9 PM AND 10 PM. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT. ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HIGHER END OF THE
RANGE...AS SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW AND THE LIGHT
INTENSITY HAS ALLOWED SOME MELTING DUE TO THE WARM GROUND AND
STRONG MARCH SUN.
AFTERWARD...IT SHOULD JUST REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WON/T DROP TOO
MUCH...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH TEMPS ALOFT RAPIDLY
DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. INITIALLY...PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 HPA/
WILL BE AROUND 6-7 DEGREES C/KM...THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO THEM...AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. THE 4KM BTV WRF SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF THESE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS.
WITH THE RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING...FIRST HAPPENING IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. IT/S TOUGH TO SAY IF SHOWERS WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH
IN VALLEY AREAS FOR THESE TO BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A QUICK
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESP
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SAT NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE PRECIP END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ON SAT
EVENING...BUT SOME UPSLOPE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. IN ADDITION...SOME LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME CELLULAR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS WELL....BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOKS LIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN GREENS ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS DRY FOR SUN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE VERY COLD...AS 850 HPA TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -20 DEGREES C. THESE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
GOOD MIXING...SO IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THESE TEMPS ARE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL EVEN FALL BELOW ZERO AS WELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BECOME CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 10 TO 20 BELOW FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS. WHILE THESE FALL SHORT OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IT/S STILL VERY COLD FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE
UPPER 30S...AND BECOMING AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES MILDER BY
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE LONG GONE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS READINGS WILL BE 15
TO 25 DEGREES MILDER.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BUT STILL MIXED. COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG...BUT EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE IT STILL LINGERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND IS POISED TO MAKE IT
IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST SO FAR TO THE SOUTH...ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES. AT
KPOU...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR NEAR 21Z AT KPSF. AT KALB EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS STARTING AROUND 20Z. AT KGFL EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND HAVE ONLY
INDICATED VCSH THERE BETWEEN 20/21Z AND 21/01Z.
AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. BY 03Z EXPECT THE SNOW TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CIGS REMAINING MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THE VFR BY AROUND 14Z...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KT AT TIMES...DIMINISHING TO
NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH AT 6 KT OR LESS TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE SNOW HAS THINNED SOMEWHAT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW REMAINS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LITTLE MELTING OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGAN ON MARCH
16TH...WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL
MELTING OF THE SNOW OCCURS. AS ALWAYS...SPOT FORECASTS ARE READILY
AVAILABLE IF REQUESTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY
DRY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
40S. SOME MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AND RIVER TRACES WILL FOLLOW A
DIURNAL SNOWMELT PATTERN TYPICALLY SEEN IN THE EARLY SPRING.
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MELTING WILL BE LIMITED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLOWLY REDUCED DUE TO SUBLIMATION. WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP EXPECTED AND LITTLE MELTING EXPECTED...ICE BREAKUP OR
ICE JAMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...A SMALL ICE
JAM ON ANY SMALLER STREAMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AFTERWARD...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL AND
SEE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CAN RISE IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
428 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS TO
THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER
VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 428 PM EDT...THE COMBINATION OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC...AND A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL HAS BEEN FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY
ECHOS ON KENX RADAR OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
WITH THIS BEING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...PRECIP LOOKS TO BE COMING
TO AN END THIS EVENING. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR ALREADY SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
IT/S ADVANCING EASTWARD. THE LATEST 19Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THE STEADY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM...WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM. TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A COATING TO AN INCH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND NW
CT. ONLY FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HIGHER END OF THE
RANGE...AS SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOW AND THE LIGHT
INTENSITY HAS ALLOWED SOME MELTING DUE TO THE WARM GROUND AND
STRONG MARCH SUN.
AFTERWARD...IT SHOULD JUST REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS WON/T DROP TOO
MUCH...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS DURING THE
AFTN HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WITH TEMPS ALOFT RAPIDLY
DROPPING OFF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. INITIALLY...PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...THE STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /700-500 HPA/
WILL BE AROUND 6-7 DEGREES C/KM...THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO THEM...AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GRAUPEL. THE 4KM BTV WRF SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF THESE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVIER ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS.
WITH THE RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING...FIRST HAPPENING IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. IT/S TOUGH TO SAY IF SHOWERS WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH
IN VALLEY AREAS FOR THESE TO BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A QUICK
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESP
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SAT NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE PRECIP END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ON SAT
EVENING...BUT SOME UPSLOPE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. IN ADDITION...SOME LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING SOME CELLULAR SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS WELL....BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
LOOKS LIGHT.
ASIDE FROM A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN GREENS ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS DRY FOR SUN INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE VERY COLD...AS 850 HPA TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND -20 DEGREES C. THESE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
GOOD MIXING...SO IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
WELL...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH HIGH TERRAIN
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THESE TEMPS ARE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL EVEN FALL BELOW ZERO AS WELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BECOME CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE 10 TO 20 BELOW FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS. WHILE THESE FALL SHORT OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA...IT/S STILL VERY COLD FOR LATE MARCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE
UPPER 30S...AND BECOMING AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES MILDER BY
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE LONG GONE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS READINGS WILL BE 15
TO 25 DEGREES MILDER.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A
STORM SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN LOW WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BUT STILL MIXED. COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG...BUT EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WHERE IT STILL LINGERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND IS POISED TO MAKE IT
IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST SO FAR TO THE SOUTH...ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE KPOU AND KPSF TAF SITES. AT
KPOU...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY TREND FROM MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD
LOWER TO IFR NEAR 21Z AT KPSF. AT KALB EXPECT CONDITIONS TO ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS STARTING AROUND 20Z. AT KGFL EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND HAVE ONLY
INDICATED VCSH THERE BETWEEN 20/21Z AND 21/01Z.
AFTER 00Z...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. BY 03Z EXPECT THE SNOW TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN CIGS REMAINING MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THE VFR BY AROUND 14Z...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KT AT TIMES...DIMINISHING TO
NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH AT 6 KT OR LESS TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SOLID SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHILE SNOW HAS THINNED SOMEWHAT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW REMAINS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LITTLE MELTING OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGAN ON MARCH
16TH...WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL
MELTING OF THE SNOW OCCURS. AS ALWAYS...SPOT FORECASTS ARE READILY
AVAILABLE IF REQUESTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SPIKE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY
DRY...BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
40S. SOME MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AND RIVER TRACES WILL FOLLOW A
DIURNAL SNOWMELT PATTERN TYPICALLY SEEN IN THE EARLY SPRING.
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MELTING WILL BE LIMITED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLOWLY REDUCED DUE TO SUBLIMATION. WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP EXPECTED AND LITTLE MELTING EXPECTED...ICE BREAKUP OR
ICE JAMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...A SMALL ICE
JAM ON ANY SMALLER STREAMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AFTERWARD...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROSPECTS FOR RAINFALL AND
SEE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CAN RISE IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH, WILL MOVE ALONG THE
COAST THEN TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WITH THIS UPDATE, WE ARE GOING TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, MATCHING OKX`S
TIMING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR DRIZZLE.
0C AT 850MB ON THE RAP IS MATCHING THE CHANGE TO NON SNOW PRETTY
WELL AND SHOWING UP ON THE CC DUAL POL ALSO. WE CANCELED SOME
OF THE SOUTHERN ADVISORY COUNTIES, BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY
REMAIN UP ELSEWHERE WHERE THE CHANGEOVER JUST OCCURRED AS ITS
TOO SOON AND FOR ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS FOR THE COMMUTE HOME
WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS WE ARE GETTING TO AROUND
WARNING CRITERIA ON NON PAVED SURFACES, BUT HALF OR EVEN
MORE THAN HALF AS MUCH ON PAVED SURFACES.
STILL, POWER OUTAGES ARE OCCURRING THOUGH WE ARE NOT SURE IF THEY
SNOW-TREE/WIRE RELATED.
COULD SEE A SITUATION IN SOME PLACES WITH 1.0 INCH ON PAVEMENT AND 6
INCHES ON GRASS. WE TRIED TO WORD THAT IN SOME OF OUR STATEMENTS.
YOU SEE THE RADAR WITH A NICE BAND BACK INTO E PA AND MOVING
ENE HEADING FOR KBLM. THE HEAVIEST AXIS...VCNTY KRDG - KBLM WITH
WIDESPREAD 5-6", POSSIBLY 7 INCH ON GRASS AND AROUND 2 ON PAVEMENT
THERE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES LATE TODAY NEAR THIS AXIS.
PLEASE CONTINUE SENDING US YOUR ACCUM REPORTS, INCLUDING DIFFERENCE
FROM PAVEMENT TO YOUR NORMAL MEASURING SFC AND WHETHER ROADS ARE
BECOMING SLIPPERY. THANK YOU AGAIN FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE.
TONIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES PAST 8 PM NNJ OR NE NJ WHILE
SOUTH OF THAT, SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE, (POSSIBLE SPOTTY ICING SE PA).
OPTED NOT TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN RISK TOO HARD AS AM NOT
CONFIDENT OF ITS OCCURRENCE.
IT SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY MOST OF THE
NIGHT UNTIL IT PARTIALLY CLEARS TOWARD DAWN? PATCHY FOG MAY THICKEN
UP TOWARD DAWN BUT NOT COVERED IN THE FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE MAIN MOISTURE/LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT PASS TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COMBINED LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE MAY CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS, SO WE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE POCONOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS FROM ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THEN OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR MAINE ON FRIDAY EVENING. A WARM FRONT,
ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IMPACTS...AS THE TODAY`S SNOW MELTS OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS RISE A BIT. AS FOR OUR FORECAST POINTS,
PEMBERTON AND PINE BROOK MAY ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO CAUTION STAGE.
OTHER THAN THAT, THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN. THE PRECIP
WITH THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH LOOKS LIGHT AND MAINLY
LIQUID. THE PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
HEAVIER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, BUT ALL LIQUID.
TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY, BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, AROUND NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
WINDS...NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ON THURSDAY AND THEN GO
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. GUSTS, ONCE AGAIN, IN THE 20-25 MPG RANGE LOOKS
REASONABLE.
PRECIP...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...IFR SNOW POSSIBLY LIFR IN HEAVY
SNOW FOR A TIME BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS
TIMING MID- LATE AFTN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN KILG/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KMIV
AND KACY.
PLOWING OPS FORESEEN AT KRDG/KABE/TTN WHERE 4 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE
ON PAVEMENTS AND 6 INCHES OR SO ON GRASS. SINCE LITTLE OR NO ACC
ON KPHL RUNWAYS AT 16Z, HAVE DISCONTINUED MY STRONGER CONCERN
THERE AND POINTS SEWD.
NE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT THIS AFTN, HIGHEST VCNTY KACY.
TONIGHT...IFR SNOW KRDG-KABE AND IFR RAIN/SNOW KTTN AND IFR RAIN
ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 08Z/21. WIND
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OVERNIGHT AFTER EVENING NE GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BKN CIGS NEAR 4000 FT.
WEST WIND. GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR
IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES AS POSTED. MAY NEED A SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT LATE
THIS EVENING FOR A SMALL CHANCE BRIEF GALE CONDITIONS ON THE ATLC
WATERS ONLY (CENTRAL NJ TO DE COASTS) IN THE 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT
TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING ON THE
OCEAN, OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EARLY SUNDAY WHERE, AS OF NOW, WINDS ARE FORECAST UP TO 20 KT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE 4 DAY PERIOD, MOVING FROM
THE INTERIOR TO OFF THE COAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SNOW WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA, IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD VALUES.
FOR PERSPECTIVE: MARCH 20 DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL VALUES FOLLOW
1958 WAS THE YEAR.
KABE 16.5 - 1958
KACY 5.0 - 1958
KILG 10.3 - 1958
KPHL 9.6 - 1958
LATEST OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW AND AMOUNT DURING THE
2013-2014 WINTER FOLLOWS...
KABE - 4/15/14 0.3"
KACY - 3/16/14 0.3"
(NOTE: LATEST OCCURRENCE ON RECORD IS 4/24/56 0.4")
KPHL - 3/25/14 0.4"
KILG - 3/25/14 0.7"
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>015-019-020-026-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ017-018.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
411 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID CLEAR OUT...BUT
SLOWLY OVER TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD WIN
OUT...CERTAINLY...BY TMRW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING THRU THE 60S AND FLIRTING WITH/REACHING TOWARD 70
ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTH/WEST.
A MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW THEN RIDES OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AND CARRIES THE FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND. ENERGY IN
THE FLOW PATTERN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH MEANS MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY
THAN SATURDAY...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPS MAY NOT CLIMB AS HIGH BUT
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID WEEK....DECREASING TO LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER THURSDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
MID WEEK...BUT AFTER THAT THEY DIVERGE A GREAT DEAL. THEY BOTH KEEP
US UNDER A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH BUT DIFFER IN SPOKES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROF AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW NUMEROUS SPOKES OF ENERGY PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AFTER THE MAIN
COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN CONTRAST TO SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS US DRY AFTER THURSDAY. MAY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THE GFS VERIFIES BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED
INIT YIELDS AND TAKE IT FROM THERE. I INTRODUCED THUNDER YESTERDAY
AND NOW THINK IT WILL BE SURFACE BASED WITH LI`S AT THE SURFACE
YIELDING -1 TO -4. ALSO K INDEX 30 AND ABOVE WITH SHOWALTER ZERO
TO -4. WILL KEEP TRW- OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
AND THEN TAPER IT OFF TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER
0-06Z THU. PLAN ON TAKING THUNDER COMPLETELY OUT AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. THE THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AFTER
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE COLD FRONTS WAKE AT THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE TAFS. DECK OF CLOUDS WITH MVFR
BASES WILL MOVE OUT. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING IMMINENT AT KCGI AND
WILL SOON FOLLOW AT KPAH. SHOULD HAPPEN BY 01-02Z AT KEVV AND
KOWB. THE RAP IS NOT DEPICTING THE PLACEMENT CORRECTLY...TOO FAR
SOUTH...SO WILL STRICTLY FOLLOW SATELLITE. MODELS DO NOT LINGER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND OVERNIGHT. JUST HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE PROSPECT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LATEST MOS
DOES HINT AT IT FOR LATE TONIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTING OFF TO THE EAST OF
KENTUCKY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE LIGHT RAIN TO DEPART THE AREA WITH SOME
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST. UNDER THE LOW
CLOUDS SOME PATCHY FOG IS FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND ALSO WHERE THE
RAIN HAD ONLY RECENTLY LEFT. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A ENCLAVE OF LOWER 50S FOUND IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE ARE MOSTLY WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF DRY BULB TEMPS...THOUGH THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A
SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST AS SOME DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO PUSH IN ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING WITH A STRONGER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE
NORTHERN TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS STAY NEARLY STATIONARY ON SATURDAY LEAVING THE CWA IN
BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM A
BROADER TROUGH WILL SPILL ITS ENERGY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE
ECMWF AND NAM THAN THE GFS. THIS ALLOWS SOME ENERGY TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CLOUDY AND DAMP NIGHT AS HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP A THREAT OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG
AROUND THROUGH THE DAWN ON SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP BEFORE SUNUP.
IN ADDITION...THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS SINK DOWN
ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSER FOG TO ENSHROUD THE RIDGES. HAVE DEPICTED
THIS IN THE GRIDS AND IT WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE
NIGHT FOR THE EVENING SHIFT. OTHERWISE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SKIMS BY TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN
LOW DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF A SMALL
RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS.
USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE MINOR
POINT AND TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL AS LINGERING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS
WOULD SUGGEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT KEPT THEM LOW...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN
PATTERN...AS WE MOVE FROM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRANSITION...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY...TO THAT PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON DURING THE LATE
WINTER...WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
WESTERN RIDGE. HOWEVER THIS CHANGE WILL NOT FULLY IMPACT OUR LOCAL
WEATHER UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
IN THE MEAN TIME...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SLIDE BY
TO OUR SOUTH...MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN
IMPACTS...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND NORTH WITH EACH RESPECTIVE SYSTEM. AFTER THESE PASS BY...A
STRONGER SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS...WILL FIRST BRING A SURGE
OF WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN QUESTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH DETAILS VARYING FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AT THE END OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN IS EXITING THE AREA BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT THE FOG THE LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD IN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL...WITH CIGS EVEN LOWERING A BIT LATE IN THE
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO
SCATTER OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
AFTER DAWN...FOR VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX AS THE
LIGHT RAIN EXITS. ALSO...TWEAKED THE FOG INTO THE EVENING FOR
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FINALLY...TOUCHED UP THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO THE EVENING PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATED
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE THE TRAILING LIGHT
RAIN WITH IT...THOUGH A FEW POCKETS WILL REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...THERE IS SOME
PATCHY FOG OUT THERE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO LESS. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BECOMING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LAST OF THE RAIN
PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. ALSO FINE TUNED THE
T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND OBS/TRENDS. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES AND
HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN HAS FILLED BACK IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FIRST BAND OF BETTER RETURNS WILL EXIT
FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR.
ANOTHER MORE SUSTAINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS COMING IN FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND HOLDING
TOGETHER WELL AS IT ENTERS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 AND
10 AM. FRESHENED UP THE POPS...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ALOFT...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG LEFT IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT UP A LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NORTH OF I-64...TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS.
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH TODAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
EXPECT A RESURGENCE IN THE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
THE FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING
TEMPORARILY BUCKLED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
FRONT...SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON.
WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DOWN AROUND 40 ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PATCHY FOG. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY TO RETURN TO THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN
PATTERN...AS WE MOVE FROM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN FLOW WILL TRANSITION...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY...TO THAT PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON DURING THE LATE
WINTER...WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A
WESTERN RIDGE. HOWEVER THIS CHANGE WILL NOT FULLY IMPACT OUR LOCAL
WEATHER UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
IN THE MEAN TIME...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL SLIDE BY
TO OUR SOUTH...MOVING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN
IMPACTS...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND NORTH WITH EACH RESPECTIVE SYSTEM. AFTER THESE PASS BY...A
STRONGER SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS...WILL FIRST BRING A SURGE
OF WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR AND BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN QUESTION AT THIS
TIME...WITH DETAILS VARYING FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN.
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AT THE END OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
LIGHT RAIN IS EXITING THE AREA BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL KEEP
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
EVENING. EXPECT THE FOG THE LOW CLOUDS TO HOLD IN FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...AS WELL...WITH CIGS EVEN LOWERING A BIT LATE IN THE
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLOUDS THEN LOOK TO
SCATTER OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
AFTER DAWN...FOR VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE WEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION WHILE A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
OBSERVED OVER BAJA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH. AREA
RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS
AS THE 16Z HRRR WAS SHOWING. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. LEFT
ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPS SEEM TO BE PROCEEDING AS
FORECAST. SO WILL STICK WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST./17/
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING KGLH...KGWO
AND HEADED FOR KGTR LATER THIS MORNING. BOTH VSBY AND CIGS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO IFR AT TIMES. FOR TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTH...THERE HAVE
BEEN INTERMITTENT CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF SUN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. /SW/
&&
/.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 452 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
BAJA REGION AND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
EAST AND HELP SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG HIGHWAY 84
THAT STRETCHED BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTH
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY BUT THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES AS MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE ARKLATEX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS MOVES THE
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO OUR DELTA REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH SOUTH OF
OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL HELP BRING
AN END TO THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW THAT WILL OPEN
INTO AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS WELL AIDING THE RAIN PRODUCTION. ONE TO TWO INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA FROM TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. /22/
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
ON SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
LOWER PLAINS WITH THE SURFACE LOW STILL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH/WEST WITH THE
LOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EURO...HOWEVER...HAS SHOWN GREATER
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND THIS IS THE SOLUTION WE
WILL PREFER FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THIS WOULD STILL TRANSLATE INTO
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGHER
QPF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT
WOULD ALSO FAVOR CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN THE GFS. THUNDER STILL
LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. MOST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
LIMITS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY POSSIBLE A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDER IN WX GRIDS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WAS PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 57 71 57 / 19 35 71 91
MERIDIAN 76 57 73 58 / 22 30 48 86
VICKSBURG 72 56 68 57 / 18 49 78 87
HATTIESBURG 81 62 76 60 / 17 49 76 84
NATCHEZ 78 59 70 58 / 17 65 80 89
GREENVILLE 65 52 68 54 / 19 17 45 77
GREENWOOD 66 53 69 53 / 24 14 37 77
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
17/SW/22/DL/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
251 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015
Focus tonight will be temps.
Clouds continue to struggle to dissipate this afternoon. It appears
the RAP is handling these clouds the best for now. Nrn edge of the
clouds shud continue slowly moving ewd. Further S, believe clouds
will continue to dissipate and move newd. A section of the nrn
clouds from near KCOU to KUIN will likely be the last to dissipate
or advect out of the area. Across the srn portions of the CWA, CI
has already begun to move into the area and will continue to do so
overnight. However, it is a little uncertain how thick these clouds
will be.
Have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight partially because of
anticipating the clearing. However, going forecast may not be cold
enuf since temps struggled today.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015
A cdfnt shud have arrived across the nrn third of the CWA by 12z
Sat. This fnt will continue to push swd thru the day. While this may
be a cold fnt, with nearly full insolation expected, tomorrow shud
actually be warmer than today. Mdls also push the thermal ridge
across the region on Sat. The fnt begins to lift nwd on Sun as a sfc
low and associated s/w approach the region. While not high chances,
this system will bring a chance for RA across nrn portions of the
CWA Sun night and across much of the area on Mon, more probable
during the afternoon with heating.
As the trof deepens across the Plains and the LLJ increases with
what shud be an open Gulf, precip chances increase quickly Mon night
and Tues, with TS becoming more probable as well. Going forecast
PoPs may be too low attm, but have not gone higher for now due to
lack of persistence among mdl guidance. Given the amount of shear
available with the system on Tues, there is a very narrow window
where severe weather potential exists. However, given a number of
questions regarding timing with this event, will hold off mention in
products now other than that it remains to be a system to watch.
Behind the cdfnt late Wed and a secondary cdfnt on Thurs, the
potential for a very cold rain or possibly even light snow event
exists. Have kept as RA for now, but again, will be a system to
monitor.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015
Low stratus has been stuborn to clear/erode thus far and exact
trends this afternoon are hardly high confidence. There have been
indications of thinning and possible erosion from southwest MO
into central MO towards the St. Louis area and also from the north
out of Iowa. The new TAFS suggest these trends will persist and
all sites that are still IFR should at leave improve to MVFR
by 18-20z. I was a bit pessimistic on the clearing trend. I added
a tempo for some light fog/BR into the St. Louis area terminals
late tonight/early Saturday morning and this will be strongly
dependent on how quickly the clearing progresses. The longer it
takes the better the fog potential and severity. A cold front will
move through the region on Saturday morning and flight conditions
should be VFR at that time.
Specifics for KSTL:
Low stratus has been stuborn to clear/erode thus far and exact
trends this afternoon are hardly high confidence. There have been
indications of thinning and possible erosion from southwest MO
into central MO towards the St. Louis area, and also to the
south/southeast of KSTL. The new TAF suggest these trends will
persist with improvement to VFR by 21z. I was a bit pessimistic
on the clearing trend. I added a tempo for some light fog/BR late
tonight/early Saturday morning and this will be strongly dependent
on how quickly the clearing progresses. The longer it takes the
better the fog potential and severity. A cold front will move
through the region on Saturday morning and flight conditions
should be VFR at that time.
Glass
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 44 71 43 69 / 0 0 0 5
Quincy 40 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 5
Columbia 43 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 5
Jefferson City 41 72 44 72 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 41 68 40 62 / 0 0 0 5
Farmington 42 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
118 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA...RIDGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CUBA. TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. CLEAR
SKIES FULL SUN AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW. HAVE UPPED TEMPERATURES
BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FOLLOWING RUC FORECAST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
PANHANDLE IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER NIGHT WITH SOME LOWER
READINGS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
AND OFF FIRE CONCERNS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH A FEW SHOTS AT
RAINFALL/THUNDER...YES PRECIP...NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT NOT GREAT
SHOTS.
SATURDAY A STALLING COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. QUESTION IS HOW FAR IT MAKES IT INTO N
CENTRAL NEB AS TO TEMPS THERE. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...850 MB TEMPS SOAR BACK TO 14C TO 18C. GUIDANCE RETURNS
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER VALUES. TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FRONT...STILL MILD AIR FOR FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...15 MPH
OR LESS...SO WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY A SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING STILL IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS FASTER...BRINGING
COLD AIR CLOSER TO THE CWA....WHICH MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
TEMP FORECAST. MIXING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS
UP SO STILL WENT WITH 60S AND 70S AGAIN. MODELS IN GENERALLY HAVE
INCREASE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE
BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT FOCUSING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA...SO TRIMMED INHERITED POPS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. DRY SLOT
ACROSS SW WITH THE REST OF THE AREA WITH LOW POPS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED MOST OF THE PRECIP IS JUST LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS FAVORS AN ELEVATED TROUGH TO LIFT NE ACROSS
THE AREA. A NEG ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX AND MARGINAL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDER. LINGERING T CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AS THE ACTIVITY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. SOME ARCTIC AIR FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO. LACK OF
MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN WITH PASSAGE...HOWEVER THE COOLER
TEMPS COULD RESULT IN RAIN MAYBE MIXING WITH SNOW WED NIGHT IF IT
HAS NOT EXITED YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
A FEW SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE LAST MONTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE WITH STRONGER WIND FORECAST AS COOL FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED DUE TO LOW RH AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...MADE A FEW UPDATES FOR THIS MORNING`S
FORECAST MAINLY ADDRESSING TWO ITEMS:
1) ALTHOUGH APPARENTLY QUITE SMALL IN AREAL EXTENT...AUTOMATED
OBS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GROUND TRUTH INCLUDING SOCIAL MEDIA
REPORTS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG HAS IN FACT
BECOME AN ISSUE THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ONLY IN MITCHELL COUNTY
KS AND POSSIBLY IN IMMEDIATELY-BORDERING PORTIONS OF NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES. CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A 1-COUNTY DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ICT/TOP OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY FORMAL HEADLINE...BUT DID ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT (SPSGID) CONCERNING THIS FOG THROUGH 9 AM.
2) LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DROP A TOUCH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...AND IT NOW APPEARS MOST OF THE CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 23-28 RANGE...WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ORD NOW DOWN TO
20. ASSUMING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WE ARE
IN FOR A NOTABLE 40-50 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMP RISE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
IF NOT FOR THE NOW-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS WOULD ACTUALLY BE
A FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD 24 HOURS WITH ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES...EFFECTIVELY ZERO RISK OF PRECIP...AND A NICE WARM UP INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT WARRANT A
COMPLAINT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY WESTERLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80. FOR THOSE WITH
PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE FIRE DANGER DETAILS TODAY...PLEASE
REFER TO THE SEPARATE SECTION BELOW AS THIS TOPIC WILL NOT BE
ADDRESSED ANY FURTHER IN THIS MAIN SHORT TERM SECTION.
STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM...THE ENTIRE CWA
SITS UNDER ESSENTIALLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AS THE MASS OF CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY HAS SUNK WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA IS TRULY FREE OF ALL WEATHER CONCERNS...AN AREA OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AROUND 30 DEGREES RESIDING NEAR A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUCH AS THAYER/JEWELL/MITCHELL IS PROMOTING
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...WITH THE BELOIT AIRPORT EVEN
SUGGESTING IT COULD BE PATCHY DENSE ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND A GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
REGIME WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...TEMPS
THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED IN MANY
AREAS...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 25-32 RANGE. TURNING TO THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER RATHER WEAK FLOW THANKS TO
BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN UPPER JET
BRANCHES IN THIS LARGE-SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH CENTERED MAINLY FROM CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS...AND THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH ORIENTED FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EASTWARD.
NOW LOOKING AHEAD FORECAST-WISE...
EARLY THIS MORNING (ROUGHLY THROUGH 8 AM): AS MENTIONED ABOVE
ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON-OSBORNE LINE WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER ALONG THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISSUES AT THIS
POINT...PATCHY DENSE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MAY ADD THIS
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THE LATEST 07Z HRRR VISIBILITY PROG HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS
SMALL-SCALE AREA OF AT LEAST LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL.
TODAY: ONCE ANY LINGERING MORNING FOG BURNS OFF IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BY MOST FOLKS STANDARDS WE ARE LEFT WITH A PRETTY DARN
PLEASANT DAY WITH A BIT OF BREEZE (ESPECIALLY NORTH) AND
ESSENTIALLY WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...ESSENTIALLY NIL FORCING IN FAIRLY WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE "QUIET ZONE" BETWEEN THE
MAIN JET BRANCHES IN THE SPLIT REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ALONG WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTH...WILL PROMOTE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST
BREEZES AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THESE BREEZES WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEP DIURNAL MIXING PROGGED TO REACH UP
TO AROUND 750 MILLIBARS PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOCUSED NORTH OF I-80...THAT
IS WHERE THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH WILL EXIST...WITH SPEEDS
TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT...AND THUS KS ZONES
ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATED...YET AGAIN AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ON
SEVERAL DAYS THIS MONTH...VARIOUS SETS OF MODELS/GUIDANCE APPEAR
TO BE TOO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE NOT GONE LOW ENOUGH...FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO
GFS/RAP VALUES WITH DEWS AVERAGING WELL DOWN IN THE 20S CWA-WIDE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TEMP-WISE...THIS SUNNY/DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY
WIND REGIME SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT EVERY BIT OF WARMING POTENTIAL THAT
IT CAN...AND NUDGED HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA UP ANOTHER 1-2
DEGREES...AIMING FOR A FAIRLY UNIFORM 73-75 RANGE MOST PLACES. BY
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AFTER 6 PM)...THE AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS SHOULD BE ON A FAIRLY STEADY DECLINE.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: QUIET/ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE WEATHER
PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASINGLY-BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
NEBRASKA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...EMANATING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER REGION. ALL THIS REALLY MEANS LOCALLY IS THAT WHILE THE
EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES OF
5-10 MPH...THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD MAINLY INTO THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...MARKED BY A
SWITCH TO FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES. GIVEN THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT BREEZES...WE MAY BE FACING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPS FALLING A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS...BUT GIVEN
THE NOTICEABLY WARMER START TO THE NIGHT THIS TIME
AROUND...GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS TO HOLD UP ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWS AIMED 35-39 ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...AND COLDER LOW 30S MOST FAVORED IN THE USUAL
VALLEY/GREELEY/DAWSON COUNTY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ACTUALLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF INTERESTING WEATHER IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN START TO COOL BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH SPRING STARTS TODAY AT 2245Z...SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST
FULL DAY OF SPRING AND IT WILL BE A NICE ONE. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
REASONABLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK UP
INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY. ALL THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTS IN SOME 500+ CAPE
VALUES BY AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLID THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TO THE EAST...OR MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODELS THIS EVENT WILL BE GET GOING FURTHER EAST AND LATER
IN THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE TRIMMED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK AND HUGGED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS PRETTY SMALL BOTH TIMING AND COVERAGE WISE AT
THIS TIME.
ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL RIDE OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO
KICK IN AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND
SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY
UNSTABLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO
THE AREA. SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ALSO SUPPORTS AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...BUT THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SIGNS NOW POINT
TOWARD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.15 TO 0.35 RANGE...BUT IT IS EARLY.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY
ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTH IN THE DAKOTAS. SUCH A LOW POSITION HAS SOME
POTENTIAL TO SWEEP SOME DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ABOARD WESTERLY WINDS. SO DESPITE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAPID DRYING
MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE LATE THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
AREAS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR
TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THE COOLER TEMPS
ARE REALLY ONLY ABOUT NORMAL AT THE COOLEST. PEERING AHEAD
A BIT FURTHER...WHATEVER RAIN WE MAY GET EARLY NEXT WEEK
COULD BE PRETTY HANDY...AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY OTHER SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE END OF THE MONTH LOOKS IFFY AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING TO THE SOUTH. WEST WINDS ARE
PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS
TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING:
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...TODAY IS NOW
OFFICIALLY CONSIDERED A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE COORDINATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES LBF/OAX ON AN UPGRADE/EXPANSION OF THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING VALID FROM 18Z-
01Z/1PM-8PM. JUST AS A QUICK REVIEW FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT BE
UNFAMILIAR WITH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA: "CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN
OUR CWA IS DEFINED AS THE 3+ HOUR OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) OF 20 PERCENT-OR-LOWER AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF 20 MPH/25
MPH. "NEAR-CRITICAL" IS DEFINED AS THE OVERLAP OF 25 PERCENT-OR-
LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS OF 15 MPH/20 MPH (IN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY VEGETATION OF COURSE).
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN REACHING
CRITICAL CRITERIA...WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO SOLIDLY CRASH INTO
THE 14-20 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WIND-WISE...ALTHOUGH
SOME PLACES IN THE WARNING MAY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD 20+ MPH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY SPEEDS ALL AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING SEMI-FREQUENT 25+ MPH GUSTS GIVEN
DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. OF COURSE...IT IS
ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT EVEN OUTSIDE THE OFFICIAL RED
FLAG AREA...AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CERTAINLY
EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES BETWEEN I-80 AND THE STATE LINE
WHERE GUST POTENTIAL TO 20+ MPH SHOULD EXIST. ALTHOUGH NOT
"TOTALLY SAFE" BY ANY MEANS...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES SHOULD BE
UNDER THE LEAST-OVERALL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT EVEN
GUSTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF 20 MPH. ON ONE LAST NOTE...THE WARNING
END TIME OF 8PM IS PROBABLY PLENTY GENEROUS GIVEN THAT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REALLY SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY 7PM IF NOT SOONER...BUT
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES SHOULD DROP...WOULD RATHER GIVE LATER
SHIFTS A CHANCE TO CANCEL A BIT EARLY THAN HAVE TO EXTEND.
BEYOND TODAY:
DESPITE THE FACT THERE ARE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION PEPPERED IN THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME PRETTY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH. ANOTHER MAY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AS A
NORTHWEST WIND TAKES HOLD IN A POST FRONT REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT MARGINAL AND IT
WILL BE TOTALLY BASED ON TIMING. SIMILAR DEAL ON TUESDAY BUT THIS
TIME STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL HELP
CREATE A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON...AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST. IT DOESN/T LOOK AS WARM BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COULD REALLY TANK...POSSIBLY WELL BELOW THE ONGOING
FORECAST. AGAIN... TIMING IS THE KEY AND THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED ONE TO WATCH AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>063.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AFTER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED...BUT SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS KCQC AND KSRR ARE
OBSERVING LOWER CEILINGS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. CEILINGS WILL
RISE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...NAMELY ALONG AND
SURROUNDING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...NEAR KROW AND POTENTIALLY IN SOME WEST CENTRAL
VALLEYS...SUCH AS KGUP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT EXTENT OF ANY
LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THUS TAFS
ARE NOT OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...722 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE
LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND GRANTS. THOUGH
SOME WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BEFORE 18Z...BEST COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES ALREADY OUT. 34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...NOR WILL AMOUNTS BE AS GREAT. NONETHELESS...PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE FAVORED. ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FAVOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...THOUGH SPOTTY HIGH TERRAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF MARCH...ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RAIN IS PERSISTING THIS MORNING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE JEMEZ
MTNS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW MTNS. THIS
AREA OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...BUT AS THIS BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED...RAIN SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER NORTH...A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CONTINUE...BUT BY AND LARGE...PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED IN THIS AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND BACK
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...THOUGH THE HRRR SUGGESTS
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT POPCORN CONVECTION THIS AFTN. REGARDLESS...NOT
LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE SW MTNS.
THE TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING FAR SE NM IN THE AFTN. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO BULGE NORTHWARD INTO SC AND SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS AND TRENDED
TEMPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A T-STORM
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
WILL START TO TAKE ITS TOLL.
BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF NM AND MUCH DRIER AIR BENEATH
A WEAK RIDGE WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND WINDY DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM SOMETIME MID TO LATE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS IN QUESTION AS WELL...WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STAY TUNED. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS...CREATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STORM OVER BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TODAY
FAVORING THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE WILL BE A FEW STORMS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER IN THE NORTHEAST AND COOLER IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST AND
CENTRAL AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN FAVOR WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT.
A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE
SUNDAY. WETTING RAINS WILL BE SCARCE SATURDAY...IF ANY AT ALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND
WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET...WITH MOSTLY TEENS ON SUNDAY ASIDE
FROM THE 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WITH
THE ONLY POOR RATES IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY...THEN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SUNDAY.
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE
EAST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 106...THEN REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS
ON TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT TUESDAY WILL BE FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA
ROSA. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WILL DROP
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EAST. THIS WILL ELIMINATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS MINIMUM RH VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WHILE RH
VALUES INCREASE SHARPLY. CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SNOW QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST WITH LOWEST VSBY CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
FAR EAST. WITH DIMINISHING SNOW AND RISING ROAD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST TEMPERATURES
WARMER SO ALSO WILL SEE LESS ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME MINOR
TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS BUT NOTHING MAJOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM CANDO TO EDMORE...PETERSBURG AND
FOSSTON. WILL SEE A SHARP CUT OFF OF SNOW EITHER SIDE OF THIS
LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO SHRINK POPS ON EITHER SIDE OF NARROW SNOW
BAND SHIFTING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN. THIS IS
SETTING UP TO BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME ISOLD 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW FA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HEAVIER AREA OF SNOW HAS SET UP AS EXPECTED AND IS SET TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. VIEWING WEBCAMS...IT HAS STARTED
SNOWING LIGHTLY IN DEVILS LAKE AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AND
THE ROADS ARE WET. FURTHER WEST INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ROADS
ARE BECOMING COVERED WITH SNOW...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION (WHICH MAKES SENSE IF RATES ARE AN INCH PER
HOUR). THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAT WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF (3 HOURS OR
LESS)...WHICH MEANS GIVEN CURRENT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH/HOUR
THAT AREAS WITHIN THIS HEAVIER BAND WILL RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. SINCE THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADS WHERE THE SNOW IS
LIGHTER...THIS SNOWFALL WILL NOT ADD TO THE OVERALL SNOWFALL.
THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE 2-3 INCHES IN A SHORT
DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES). THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...RAP...AND HOPWRF HAVE DECREASED
OVERALL QPF...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE WHY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A NARROW BAND. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING (UPPER JET SUPPORT)
AND PWATS NEAR 0.4-0.5 INCHES SUPPORT A BANDED EVENT. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING AROUND 0.3 INCHES QPF WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND...WITH THE WRFARW4 AND WRFNMM4 INDICATING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
QPF. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND FROM LANGDON
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI. OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTS
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE NOW AROUND
32F...AND THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALLOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES (EVEN IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME). WITH THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THE LOCATION IN QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAND ACTUALLY SETS UP. DID ISSUE AN SPS ATTEMPTING TO DESCRIBE
THE SITUATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60F CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM COULD BRING A TEMPORARY RETURN OF
WINTER CONDITIONS AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS ROCKIES AND EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE SFC LOW
OUT OF NE WY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THEN SPEEDING UP AND
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE GFS. BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK THE
LOW ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR AND BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR CWA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THICKNESS
VALUES FALL BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND ANY WRAP AROUND TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN RECORD HIGHS AND MARCH LIKE WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXITING THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR KGFK/KTVF THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ALL SNOW SHOULD BE CLEAR OF KBJI BY 21-24Z. ULTIMATELY LOOKING FOR A
TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY WEST. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN WAKE OF SNOW...THEN SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1105 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW
ALONG A NARROW LINE FROM CANDO TO EDMORE...PETERSBURG AND
FOSSTON. WILL SEE A SHARP CUT OFF OF SNOW EITHER SIDE OF THIS
LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO SHRINK POPS ON EITHER SIDE OF NARROW SNOW
BAND SHIFTING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NW MN. THIS IS
SETTING UP TO BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME ISOLD 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW FA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
HEAVIER AREA OF SNOW HAS SET UP AS EXPECTED AND IS SET TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. VIEWING WEBCAMS...IT HAS STARTED
SNOWING LIGHTLY IN DEVILS LAKE AHEAD OF THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...AND
THE ROADS ARE WET. FURTHER WEST INTO THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ROADS
ARE BECOMING COVERED WITH SNOW...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION (WHICH MAKES SENSE IF RATES ARE AN INCH PER
HOUR). THE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAT WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF (3 HOURS OR
LESS)...WHICH MEANS GIVEN CURRENT SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH/HOUR
THAT AREAS WITHIN THIS HEAVIER BAND WILL RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. SINCE THE SNOW IS MELTING ON ROADS WHERE THE SNOW IS
LIGHTER...THIS SNOWFALL WILL NOT ADD TO THE OVERALL SNOWFALL.
THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE 2-3 INCHES IN A SHORT
DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES). THE
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...RAP...AND HOPWRF HAVE DECREASED
OVERALL QPF...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE WHY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A NARROW BAND. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING (UPPER JET SUPPORT)
AND PWATS NEAR 0.4-0.5 INCHES SUPPORT A BANDED EVENT. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATING AROUND 0.3 INCHES QPF WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND...WITH THE WRFARW4 AND WRFNMM4 INDICATING AROUND 0.5 INCHES
QPF. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND FROM LANGDON
TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AND BEMIDJI. OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTS
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH. ROAD SFC TEMPS ARE NOW AROUND
32F...AND THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALLOW ACCUMULATION
ON ROAD SURFACES (EVEN IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME). WITH THAT
SAID...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THINKING...ALONG WITH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND. FEEL RELATIVELY CONFIDENT
THAT A PORTION OF THE REGION WILL REQUIRE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
THIS EVENT...BUT WITH THE LOCATION IN QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAND ACTUALLY SETS UP. DID ISSUE AN SPS ATTEMPTING TO DESCRIBE
THE SITUATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO NEAR 60F CLOSER TO SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INFLUENCES THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. KEPT THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AS THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM COULD BRING A TEMPORARY RETURN OF
WINTER CONDITIONS AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS ROCKIES AND EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE SFC LOW
OUT OF NE WY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...THEN SPEEDING UP AND
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE GFS. BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK THE
LOW ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR AND BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY ON TUESDAY FOR OUR CWA.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX BUT THICKNESS
VALUES FALL BY 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND ANY WRAP AROUND TUE NIGHT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND IT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN RECORD HIGHS AND MARCH LIKE WEATHER IS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
BAND OF SNOW AND LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
KDVL...KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR A 2-5
HOUR PERIOD. KFAR WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE AFFECTED. AFTER BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-
015-016-026-027-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
244 PM PDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS STARTING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST
FRONT IS MAKING HEADWAY TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST. SO FAR NO RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ANY OF THE COASTAL LOCATIONS, BUT THE COMPOSITE
RADAR IMAGES FROM MEDFORD AND EUREKA SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE OUTER MARINE WATERS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS RAINFALL ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND 5 PM PDT THEN PUSHING
INLAND IN COOS AND CURRY COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE MARINE WATERS THIS EVENING, BUT
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COLD AIR
ALOFT IS STILL TO THE WEST, SO HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE IT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND
7000 FEET THIS EVENING, LOWERING TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ROADS SNOW COVERED NEAR
DIAMOND LAKE AND CRATER LAKE AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN THE MODELS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DECREASING PRECIPIATION LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPIATION BREAKING OUT OVER NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THIS,BUT TO A
MUCH LESSER EXTENT AND THE EC KEEPS IT DRY. FOR NOW DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, BUT DID EXPEND POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
ANOTHER, BUT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPIATION TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MOVING
INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT (THE COLDEST WE
HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE) WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 6000 FEET TO 4000
FEET SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS. SO IF YOU PLAN ON
TRAVELING ON HIGHWAY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS, HIGHWAY 62 NEAR
CRATER LAKE, HIGHWAY 130 NEAR DIAMOND LAKE AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT
SUNDAY NIGHT, BE PREPARED FOR WINTRY TRAVEL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE LOWER
THEN -30 C MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN ADDITION
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES ARE EXPECTED. ALL THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES FROM AROUND
CRATER LAKE NORTH, THE NORTHERN HALF OF KLAMATH COUNTY AND MOST OF
LAKE COUNTY, BUT THE DETAILS ON THIS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO MONDAY.
IF NOTHING ELSE, WE`LL SEE SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 4000 FEET MONDAY MORNING, THEN WE`LL
HAVE A DIURNAL INCREASE TO AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER TO 4000 FEET OR LESS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
SISKIYOU SUMMIT COULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS TURN TO WET SNOW SHOWERS THAT
COULD BRIEFLY ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS.
A COOL MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPIATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE GFS AND EC SHOW
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE PRECIPIATION AND THERE`S A CHANCE
SNOW LEVELS COULD COME UP AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -PETRUCELLI
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W TUESDAY...AND IT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AFTER THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO DEVELOP
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS BREAK THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST
OF THE MEDFORD CWA SOMETIME THURSDAY. AFTER THIS THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE EC IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS DELAYS THIS WAVE
UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
THE ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS FROM FRIDAY
ON...ESPECIALLY THE EC. SO...CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO THE MIDDLE ROAD AND BRING PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY. -JRS
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES EAST...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREAD TO THE COAST AROUND 02Z...THEN SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. -JRS
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 20 MAR 2015...A COLD FRONT WITH
MODERATE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SPILDE
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z HRRR SHOWS PRECIP EXITING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
20-22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
AND BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED.
AS THE SNOW DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND THE SKIES BRIGHTEN WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEPEST CLOUDS...THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL HELP IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL REACH FAR EASTERN AREAS
LAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP...MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PEEL AWAY TONIGHT...WHILE
EXTENSIVE/WARMER LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL DIP BACK INTO
U20S AND L30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AVOID BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC OVER TOO LARGE
AN AREA.
THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THE NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ENTERING MY NWRN ZONES BY AROUND MID DAY. IT
WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHILE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT
CONDITIONS...WILL ACTUALLY BE ONLY NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO
MIDWEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE WEEK THAT WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TUE INTO WED AS FLOW TURNS FROM THE NW AROUND TO
THE SW. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 30F ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS SUN/MON WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40F ACROSS THE
SOUTH /AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA/. BY WED...HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
SHARP RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN U.S. LATE WEEK...ALLOWING A
WAVE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS
A LOW PRESSURE AREA BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDWEST. COULD
SEE A PASSING SHOWER ON WED AS WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...BUT
MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THU/EARLY FRI AS ELONGATED
FRONT/TROUGH MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT WINDOW OF TIME
WILL BE IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY CATEGORY. ECMWF SUITE FASTER
THAN THE GFS WITH THE TROUGH...SO THESE DIFFERENCES WILL NEED TO
BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE RUNS TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...A SHOT OF COOLER AIR RETURNS BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SCT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR LATER FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE DAY. SNOW WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTN...REACHING SERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-23Z. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO IMPROVE
WITH THE ENDING OF THE STEADY SNOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE MTNS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST WITH ISOLD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR CIGS IN THE 3000-5000` RANGE CENTRAL AND EAST.
SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 645 PM EDT/2245 UTC THIS EVENING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
204 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z HRRR SHOWS PRECIP EXITING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
20-22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
AND BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED.
AS THE SNOW DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND THE SKIES BRIGHTEN WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEPEST CLOUDS...THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL HELP IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL REACH FAR EASTERN AREAS
LAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP...MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PEEL AWAY TONIGHT...WHILE
EXTENSIVE/WARMER LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL DIP BACK INTO
U20S AND L30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AVOID BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC OVER TOO LARGE
AN AREA.
THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT THE NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ENTERING MY NWRN ZONES BY AROUND MID DAY. IT
WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY
FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHILE MILD COMPARED TO RECENT
CONDITIONS...WILL ACTUALLY BE ONLY NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SPRING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AND DRY WX IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. 12Z GEFS PLUMES AND
ECENS DATA IMPLY MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 32F OVR THE N MTNS AND AM LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS
TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR LKLY ARND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS SFC LOW TRACKS WEST OF PA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE DAY. SNOW WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTN...REACHING SERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-23Z. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO IMPROVE
WITH THE ENDING OF THE STEADY SNOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE MTNS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST WITH ISOLD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR CIGS IN THE 3000-5000` RANGE CENTRAL AND EAST.
SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 645 PM EDT/2245 UTC THIS EVENING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/DEFLITCH
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1234 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BRINGING AN END TO OUR LATE SEASON SNOWFALL. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH SATURDAY BRINGING
DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
13Z HRRR SHOWS PRECIP EXITING MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
20-22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
AND BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND A LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED.
AS THE SNOW DECREASES IN INTENSITY AND THE SKIES BRIGHTEN WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEPEST CLOUDS...THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE
WILL HELP IMPROVE ROAD CONDITIONS AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL REACH FAR EASTERN AREAS
LAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP...MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PEEL AWAY TONIGHT...WHILE
EXTENSIVE/WARMER LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL DIP BACK INTO
U20S AND L30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU THE WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX HEADING
SE FROM HUDSON BAY INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC...PUSHING A SHARP COLD
FRONT THRU PA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD OF FRONT
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND DRY WX IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. 12Z GEFS PLUMES AND
ECENS DATA IMPLY MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 32F OVR THE N MTNS AND AM LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS
TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MODERATING
TEMPS AND THE CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS APPEAR LKLY ARND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AS SFC LOW TRACKS WEST OF PA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE DAY. SNOW WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTN...REACHING SERN
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-23Z. WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO IMPROVE
WITH THE ENDING OF THE STEADY SNOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WITH WEAK SFC FLOW AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE MTNS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR CIGS NORTH AND WEST WITH ISOLD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
VFR CIGS IN THE 3000-5000` RANGE CENTRAL AND EAST.
SUN-TUE...VFR/NO SIG WX.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SPRING OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 645 PM EDT/2245 UTC THIS EVENING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LA CORTE
CLIMATE...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1203 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN BY 00Z. AS
A RESULT...THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. OTW...LOW CIGS TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE TONIGHT. VSBYS IN THE 3SM-5SM RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 12Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY...JUST PATCHY LIGHT ACTIVITY EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY 00Z. HRRR AGREES WITH THIS AND WILL
THEREFORE BEGIN TO LOWER POPS FOR TODAY. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW BEFORE 1 PM...WITH LOW POPS ELSEWHERE.
OTW...CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE
UPPER 50S OR SO.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
UPDATE...
12Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
CKV/BNA AND WELL THROUGH TONIGHT CSV IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY MVFR/IFR
THROUGH TODAY BNA/CKV BUT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY EARLY TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING FOG HOWEVER EXPECTED TO FORM 08-12Z. CSV LIKELY
TO REMAIN LARGELY IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT BUT FOG EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP
BRINGING VSBYS BACK DOWN TOWARD 06Z AND OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 5 OR 6 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE RAIN TRANSLATING
EASTWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. BY NOON AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH RAIN CONTINUING SOUTHEAST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT END FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOOKING FOR CLOUDY SKIES MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD INCLUDE A FEW RAYS OF SUN. NOT AS COOL TODAY AS
YESTERDAY BUT NO BIG WARM UP EITHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
PLATEAU AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.
1021 MBAR SURFACE RIDGE TAKES OVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MID
STATE REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STARTS WORKING UPPER
TROUGH IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTH TEXAS...BELIEVE EURO HAS BEST
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BRING A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR
THE SOUTH HALF OF MID STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE BUT GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHEAST HALF SUNDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW REMAIN NEARBY. NO RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT I DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY
AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THEN BUMP UP POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES
EASTERN U.S. WITH ENERGY WORKING ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGHS NEXT WEEK GENERALLY IN THE 60S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AROUND 50 THURSDAY MORNING THEN IN THE 40S
FRIDAY MORNING AND IN THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE...AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST 32 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN THE
SPRING AT NASHVILLE IS APRIL 6TH.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE STEADIER RAINFALL BEGINS CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR.
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO 3SM-5SM. WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL EXPECTED THE FRONT TO ARRIVE AT KAUS
21Z-22Z AND KSAT/KSSF 23Z-00Z. WINDS BE EASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTER FROPA WILL SEE RAIN/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME AND HAVE NOT SPECIFICALLY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT TO MAINLY MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FALL BACK TO IFR TONIGHT.
LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO N TO NE
AT 5 TO 12 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
.PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CENTER AROUND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES CONFINED TO NARROW AXES.
HAVE UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS WEST TO THE
RIO GRANDE AND HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME TO 1PM THIS AFTERNOON. A
SEGMENTED WATCH COULD HAVE BEEN MADE BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MESSAGING AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE. THE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE POSTED BY 6AM THIS MORNING. THE WATCH WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD GIVEN
NEW HI-RES ARW/NMM SUPPORT AND A BULLISH HRRR THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT VAL VERDE COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS FOR HIGHER TOTALS WHERE LIMITED SOIL DEPTH WITH COMPOUND
FLOODING ISSUES QUICKLY.
AT THIS TIME...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO
TOWARD FORTH WORTH AND MOVING SOUTH. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING
STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...IS
AIDING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND AS ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM A WEAK EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FURTHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-DAY INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND SE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SUBTLE MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AIDING IN MID LEVEL COOLING...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL RANGE FROM 300 J/KG IN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 1000
J/KG ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE NE TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. FEEL THIS AREA WHERE BEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS
WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FEEL THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING TREND BY EVENING WITH RAINFALL RATES
LOWERING AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN IMPULSES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVIER RAIN LOOKS TO ORGANIZE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EJECTS AHEAD OF THE PARENT CUT-FF LOW AND
H5 TO H3 WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE EITHER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OR
JUST SOUTHEAST. THIS BANDING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TAPPING INTO PWATS OF 1.5" TO 1.8" AND FEEL THIS TIME
FRAME FROM 1AM SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION AND GEOGRAPHICAL PLACEMENT FOR
FLOODING ISSUES. FINALLY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DRIVE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND HELP
SLOWLY DIMINISH RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS NE TEXAS.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM AS MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW 0.9" PWATS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZED AND DRY THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE JET STREAM SHIFTING NORTH. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM LOOKS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY A WEAK TROUGH NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING COULD HELP BUCKLE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH ONCE GAIN AND FORCE ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SITUATION BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THROUGH THE WEEK. /ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 58 66 58 74 / 100 100 90 70 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 59 65 58 73 / 100 100 100 70 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 67 58 76 / 90 100 100 60 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 55 63 56 71 / 100 80 80 70 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 59 69 56 79 / 100 80 80 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 57 64 57 72 / 100 100 90 70 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 68 57 77 / 100 90 90 50 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 60 66 57 75 / 90 100 100 70 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 62 68 60 74 / 90 100 100 70 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 60 67 59 76 / 90 100 90 60 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 60 68 59 77 / 90 100 90 60 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...00/24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30