Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/18/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
745 PM MST TUE MAR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MARK COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OVER ARIZONA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... WITH ONE QUASI-CUTOFF SYSTEM EXITING INTO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS...ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE WAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS WERE BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE REGION. 00Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA INDICATED A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (SFC-10K FT) WITH MODEST MIXING RATIOS AT 4.5 G/KG YIELDING A MIDLEVEL BROKEN DECK YET WITH SUBSTANTIAL SUBCLOUD DRY AIR (SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 40F-50F). SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LARGELY RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN...BOTH IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF SERN ARIZONA AND DIURNALLY FORCED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. NEITHER REGION WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE GENERALLY TRIMMED POPS OVERNIGHT. RECENT HRRR RUNS (PARTLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NAM) ARE SHOWING MORE BROAD ASCENT SPREADING INTO SRN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE CNTRL BAJA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...FEEL MUCH OF THIS ASCENT WILL BE REALIZED IN VIRGA AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. REGARDLESS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THOUGH LIKELY RESULTING IN MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO RESPOND TO FORECAST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE DELAYED THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING HOURLY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES...AND IN ADDITION TO ADJUSTING THESE HOURLY VALUES...HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /143 PM MST TUE MAR 17 2015/ MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CA TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF TO BECOME A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN IS THE NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ALIGNED OVER CENTRAL AZ AND PROVIDING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH AS MUCH AS HALF AN INCH FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. FOR THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.05 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE FOR THE TOTAL PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIG DROP IN THE HIGH TEMPS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN AZ-NM BORDER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZ BUT FOR MOST AREAS A CLEARING TREND SHOULD BE EVIDENT. BY SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF INDICATING A BACK DOOR ROCKY MT TROUGH DROPPING DOWN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EITHER SOLUTION WILL STILL MEAN CONTINUED CLEARING AND A SLOW BUILD BACK OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPS UP IN THE LOW 90S. && .AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SPEED OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY OBTAINING THE MORE TRADITIONAL EASTERLY TRAJECTORY...THOUGH POTENTIALLY LATER THAN USUAL. WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WIND DIRECTION CHANGES IS ONLY MODERATE. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AT OR JUST BELOW 10K FEET BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY FALLING TO 7K FT LATE IN THE MORNING. EXTENSIVE VIRGA MAY BE COMMON FOR PERIODS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW WIND GUSTS AND RAPIDLY SHIFTING DIRECTIONS FOR A SHORT DURATION. SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SFC...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PROBABLY MORE RELEGATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH... CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FALLING TOWARDS 10K FT AT TIMES. VIRGA WILL BECOME COMMON WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHORT PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER COULD REACH THE SFC. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE FAVORING A GENERAL SLY DIRECTION AT KBLH AND WLY DIRECTION AT KIPL. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTIONS IS ONLY MODERATE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND ACROSS ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING...WITH DESERT HIGHS FALLING MOSTLY INTO THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STAY QUITE ELEVATED AND RANGE FROM 20 TO OVER 30 PERCENT. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WILL USHER IN A DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND IS EXPECTED DURING THE 5 DAY PERIOD...JUST SOME TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OR GUSTING FAVORING UPSLOPE OR THE WEST EACH DAY. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX DISCUSSION...MO/WATERS AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
645 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED STABILITY RESULTED FROM INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS REDUCING DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ SYNOPSIS... A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A COLDER PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHORT TERM... PRONOUNCED PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. BUT LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF A MAMMOTH-HAWTHORNE LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH SNOW LEVELS 8500+ FT. TOMORROW COULD END UP BEING A RATHER INTERESTING WEATHER DAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ABOUT A MONTH OR TWO EARLY! COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT PLUME, DESTABILIZATION, AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT I-80 SOUTHWARD. STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT THOUGH GENERALLY N/NE SUCH THAT CELLS WOULD MOVE OVER TO THE WEST SLOPES BUT SLOWLY. ACCORDINGLY THE SREF TSTM GUIDANCE PAINTS THE BEST CHANCES ALONG/WEST OF THE CREST. WE`VE INCREASED CHANCES OF TSRA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT KEPT THEM PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE 8000-9000 FT BASED ON WET BULB ZERO GUIDANCE, BUT THOSE COULD BE DRAGGED DOWN 1000+ FEET IN TSTMS LEADING TO LOCALIZED RAPID SNOW ACCUMS ON PASS ROADS. WARMING HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PRETTY DRY AIR, SEEN IN THE GFS. THIS AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO VALLEYS LEADING TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. POOR MIDSLOPE AND RIDGE RH RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL ACT TO KICK UP THE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT A BIG WIND MAKER BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTS 30+ MPH ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS IS WORTH NOTING FOR OUR FIRE PARTNERS. CS LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)... PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH. NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH THIS LOW DOES HAVE ENOUGH DEPTH TO PUSH A FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS VARY IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, BUT WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION REACHING LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET, BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH PEAK VALLEY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRONG AVIATION... A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MONO LAKE- HAWTHORNE THROUGH 02Z. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM PORTOLA TO MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PELLETS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. BRONG && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
310 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2015 .Synopsis... Weak weather systems moving through the region will result in some light precipitation over portions of the of the forecast area and the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday. Dry and warm weather is expected for the latter half of the week. Next chance of more widespread precipitation will be this weekend. && .Discussion... Broad...moist SW flow aloft will continue over Norcal through tonite before a progressive short wave trof moving inside (or East) of 140W brushes by mainly to the N on Tue. The TPW plume about 1-1.33" offshore is focused over the region by the synoptic scale pattern with a weak short wave causing light precip mainly from Lake Co...NEwd into Plumas Co and in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary/slow-moving front. This weak short wave will be moving through the CWA tonite...pushed Ewd by the upstream system mentioned above. The TPW plume itself is forecast to erode and shift S of the region as it moves inland...influenced by the weak short wave and then the upstream system. Minor change to the previous forecasts was to mention some RW-- over the Srn Sac Vly as suggested by the HRRR tonite and GFS. The band of light rain will continue to gradually shift SEwd and will likely linger into Tue as the upstream short wave moves through Norcal. The upstream short wave is forecast to weaken and move into NV Tue afternoon...so precip should wind down or diminish in our CWA. The models do not show significant instability to warrant thunder in the Siernev Tue afternoon...but they do on Wed afternoon as a weak wave moves through the weak Wly flow in the wake of Tue`s system. Then...ridging re-amplifies over Norcal on Thu with a return to warm/dry wx. Morning RAOBs show 9-15 degrees of cooling from yesterday when we continued to established record max temps over the weekend. No records expected today as synoptic cooling and thick cloud cover keep temps in the 60s and 70s in the Valley. The 24 hr trend over most of the CWA is trending toward the RAOBs numbers. From here we should see a warming trend through mid week as max temps rebound with a return to partly cloudy skies on Tue in the wake of the short wave trof. Warming continues Wed/Thu as ridging re-amplifies and increases Nly pressure gradients promoting adiabatic warming effects. Warm enough for a potential record max temp at KRDD on Thu (81 in 2010, 85 in 1914 City record for Mar 19th) as we forecast a high of 82. JHM .Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday) Medium range models similar in bringing next short wave through Interior NorCal late Friday into Saturday morning but differ with strength of storm. All solutions showing the system weakening as it moves onshore and overall QPF looks light and focused north of I-80 in the Central Valley. Dry weather behind this system for later Saturday into Sunday under upper ridging. GFS/GEM showing a deeper system Monday with precip spreading farther south over the entire CWA. Latest 12z EC has shifted to a more progressive solution with QPF focused mainly north of I-80 for the Central Valley. Models have had a tendency of initially showing deeper wetter systems towards the end of the forecast period, then trend weaker with more northern track in later runs. Given this, current forecast leans towards the 12Z EC. Synoptic cooling over the area Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the Central Valley with mostly 40s to low 60s for the mountains and foothills. && .Aviation... Wk fnt sags sloly S thru Intr NorCal tngt into Tue mrng then high pres blds inld. Mnly VFR conds ovr fcst area nxt 24 hrs with isold -shra poss. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kt poss ovr hyr trrn thru 04z Tue. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER FORECAST. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR. HOWEVER...SO FAR ZERO OF THE GAUGES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE INDICATED ANY TIPS OF THE BUCKET ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA DO INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED OVER THE NORTH BAY. 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND DOWN TO SF BAY BY LATE IN THE EVENING. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SAN MATEO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT -- JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR MOST SPOTS. SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA ALONG WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE TROF FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN OUT OF OUR CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE. FOR NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH WITH A PATTERN OF A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROF. RIGHT NOW NO INDICATIONS OF A MAJOR RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY TODAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP IN THE FEW/SCT RANGE AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PREFORMED POORLY AS OF LATE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS INCREASE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL. A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A BKN/OVC DECK WILL FORM. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OTHERWISE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS FOR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS STALLED. LATEST PRECIPITATION REPORT ROUNDUP SHOWS AS OF THIS TIME NO SPOTS IN OUR CWA HAVE PICKED UP ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DOWN TO SAN FRANCISCO. WILL ISSUE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS UP TO AT LEAST 15 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER WEEK FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH JUST LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WORTH NOTING INTO WEDNESDAY. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO SET A RECORD WARM MINIMUM ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW OF ONLY 58 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 1993. THE WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NIGHTS MILD IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WERE UNDER. ANYWAY THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL KICK THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WRINKLE IN THE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. BUT FOR THE BULK OF THE DISTRICT LOOK FOR CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDS MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND NOSE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS. NEXT FRONT OF INTEREST APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAINFALL (THAT`S NOT SURPRISING) WITH THE GEM MODEL THE MOST BULLISH. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME HINT OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY NEXT MONDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY TODAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP IN THE FEW/SCT RANGE AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PREFORMED POORLY AS OF LATE. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS INCREASE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL. A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A BKN/OVC DECK WILL FORM. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHER WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/BELL AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT Mon Mar 16 2015 .Synopsis... Light precipitation will be possible over the northern third of the forecast area over the next 24 hours while diurnal showers will be possible across the northern Sierra Tuesday and Wednesday. Next chance of more widespread precipitation will be this weekend. && .Discussion... Broad...moist SW flow aloft will continue over Norcal through tonite before a progressive short wave trof vcnty 140W brushes by mainly to the N on Tue. The TPW plume about 1-1.33" offshore is focused over the region by the synoptic scale pattern with a weak short wave causing light precip mainly from Lake Co...NEwd into Shasta Co...and in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front. This weak short wave will be moving through the CWA tonite...pushed Ewd by the upstream system mentioned above. The TPW plume itself is forecast to erode and shift S of the region as it moves inland... influenced by the weak short wave and then the upstream system. The SWly flow aloft will parallel the front...but the front should finally move through and weaken in our CWA with the passage of the upstream system on Tue. Only change to the forecasts will be to perhaps mention some RW-- over the Srn Sac Vly as suggested by the HRRR tonite...and will contemplate that for the afternoon forecast. Meanwhile...the band of light rain will gradually shift Ewd and will likely linger into Tue as the upstream short wave moves through Norcal. The upstream short wave is forecast to weaken and move into NV Tue afternoon...so precip should wind down or diminish in our CWA. The models do not show significant instability to warrant thunder in the Siernev Tue afternoon and will contemplate removing that mention in the afternoon package as well. Morning raobs show 9-15 degrees of cooling from yesterday when we continued to established record max temps over the weekend. No records expected today as synoptic cooling and thick cloud cover keep temps in the 60s and 70s in the Valley. JHM .Previous Discussion... Satellite imagery continues to show plenty of cloudiness streaming northeastward into the region from the eastern Pacific. Light showers have been confined to the Coast Range, northern Sacramento Valley and northern mountains. 24 hours rainfall amounts have ranged from a few hundredths of an inch in the coastal mountains to around a third of an inch in the mountains north of Redding. The Redding area itself has generally seen around a tenth of an inch of rain. All the clouds are resulting in another night of mild temperatures. Readings currently vary from the 40s in the mountains to the 50s in the Central Valley. Little change in the pattern is expected for NorCal today as moisture continues flow up from the southwest ahead of a broad trough over the eastern Pacific. The deepest moisture (TPW approaching an inch) along with weak lift will continue to be aimed into the far northwest corner of the forecast area, and that is where light precipitation is expected to remain into early Tuesday. The southern half of the forecast area will see varying amounts of clouds along with warmer temperatures. The short-wave presently approaching 40N/140W is forecast to move toward the PacNW on Tuesday, but it will help to lift the deeper moisture and precipitation chances north of the region during the day. However, appears there will be enough lingering moisture and some instability with weakness aloft for a slight chance of diurnal deep convection over the northern Sierra both Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger ridging is forecast to return Thursday and may cap-off mountain convection and bring a return of warmer temperatures. && .Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday) The ridge that was in place Thursday shifts to the east on Friday with a shortwave passing through Northern California late Friday into Saturday. This will bring chances of precipitation to the area, but focused mainly north of I-80 in the Valley. Weak, transitory ridging builds Sunday, before a potentially wetter system moves in by Sunday night into early next week. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of a wetter event, at least compared to recent systems. Decent model agreement exists for this storm, but we have seen this already lately. When the GFS, EC, and GEM all show a decent trough over the area this far out, it usually translate to a decent chance of precip, or least something to monitor more closely. Persistence can be a good forecast tool, as the persistent ridge has brought the past few troughs down to size. We do mention a possibility for some precip, but amounts and coverage may suffer if the ridge holds. JClapp && .Aviation... Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. A weak weather system will remain over NW CA today, bringing -RA from Clear Lake to Quincy northward. This band will slowly shift southward this evening, and may bring -SHRA to Sacramento tonight. Expect north winds less than 10 kt across the Valley today. Some breezy SW winds will be possible over the high Sierra. Dang && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OTHERWISE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS FOR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS STALLED. LATEST PRECIPITATION REPORT ROUNDUP SHOWS AS OF THIS TIME NO SPOTS IN OUR CWA HAVE PICKED UP ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DOWN TO SAN FRANCISCO. WILL ISSUE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS UP TO AT LEAST 15 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN. OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER WEEK FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH JUST LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WORTH NOTING INTO WEDNESDAY. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR OFFICIAL SITE IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO SET A RECORD WARM MINIMUM ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW OF ONLY 58 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 1993. THE WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR NIGHTS MILD IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WERE UNDER. ANYWAY THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL KICK THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WRINKLE IN THE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY. BUT FOR THE BULK OF THE DISTRICT LOOK FOR CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDS MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND NOSE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A MODEST WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS. NEXT FRONT OF INTEREST APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF ANY RAINFALL (THAT`S NOT SURPRISING) WITH THE GEM MODEL THE MOST BULLISH. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME HINT OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY NEXT MONDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY TODAY...OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAINED CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP LOCALLY INLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT WEST WINDS 12-15 KNOTS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/BELL AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1151 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1151 PM EDT...EARLY UPDATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR INTENSE SNOWBAND IN LOW-MID LEVEL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR INITIALLY SHOWED A BAND IMPACTING THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS AROUND 02Z/WED...BUT THEN IT DIMINISHED OR WEAKENED QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS HELD TOGETHER AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...AND IT EXTENDS EVEN INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY /COLUMBIA CTY/ AND CENTRL TACONICS. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR. WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL VALUES...AND ADDED 1-3" INCHES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS. AN SPS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED WITH SNOW RATES AROUND AN INCH AN HOUR. ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES OVER THE SRN GREENS...ADIRONDACK PARK...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO OUR EAST TIGHTENS UP. MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS SHOW STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS THE WIND FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES NNW FAVORING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER THE REGION WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED. WITH MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500 HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PERSISTING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...THEN INCREASING TO SPEEDS SIMILAR TO TODAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA/SND NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...SND/11/JPV FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BISECTED THE STATE OF IOWA TODAY AND WERE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS MOISTURE WAS MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXTREMELY DRY AIR...LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN WAS FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS WAS LEADING TO EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE ZERO DIGITS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH COMPUTER GUIDANCE VIRTUALLY USELESS FOR THE DEWPOINTS TODAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. HIRES HOURLY MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE. NONE OF THE 12Z REGIONAL AND SPECTRAL MODELS COME EVEN CLOSE TO HANDLING THE DRY AIR WELL...SO FORCED TO USE THE HRRR AND THE RUC FOR DEW POINT TEMPS. THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND CAN ADVECT LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...USED THE RUC AND HRRR DEWPOINTS AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED FROM THERE. MODELS HAVE WARMED UP TONIGHT WITH LOWS. NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...SO WENT WITH LOW END OF GUIDANCE...SINCE WE COULD DROP FAST TONIGHT TEMP WISE BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND NORMAL LIKE TODAY. I POPULATED WITH THE ALLBLEND...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SUPERBLEND. THOUGHT THIS WAS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. WE SHOULDN`T BE AS DRY AS WE WERE TODAY...SO THE THREAT OF HIGH FIRE DANGER SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 OVERVIEW...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 540 DAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THURSDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND SINCE RAW MODELS TEND TO PERFORM BETTER IN THESE PATTERN SHIFT REGIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 850 MB TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR -4 C. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS THE S/SE CWA BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MOISTURE STARVED. FRIDAY...WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOW 60S AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE +4-8 C RANGE WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 550 DAM. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLIDING A SPRAWLING 1030-1035 MB SFC HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. EXPECT A STEADY NW FLOW ON SAT AND THEN EAST WINDS ON SUN. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL AS LOW AS -8 C PER THE ECMWF BY SAT NIGHT. AGAIN WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE SUPERBLEND WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS IN A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER LIKE THIS. MONDAY...VORTICITY MAX IN THE NW FLOW MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION. 40S FOR HIGHS BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL VERY LOW. THE NEXT WARM-UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO SCT-BKN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS AOA 12K AGL AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...UTTECH AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
928 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING IN FORECAST. GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBS SO HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO WINDS. TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING. INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE IS BETTER CLEARING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY AMOUNTS. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAG SITES WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS ESE AROUND 10KTS BECOMING SSE 10-20KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
612 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 612 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 AS OF 00Z WEDNESDAY...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES RANGED 45 TO 50 DEGREES UNDER A VARIABLE MID CLOUD DECK. THIS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL ZONES AS CLOUDS LIFT NORTH AND EAST THRU THE AREA. EXPECTING ALL ZONES TO SEE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS FROM LATEST SET OF HOURLIES AND WILL MONITOR TREND AFTER SUNSET TO SEE IF OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE REFLECTING GOING FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO WINDS. TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING. INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE IS BETTER CLEARING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY AMOUNTS. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAG SITES WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS ESE AROUND 10KTS BECOMING SSE 10-20KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO WINDS. TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING. INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE IS BETTER CLEARING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY AMOUNTS. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAG SITES WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS ESE AROUND 10KTS BECOMING SSE 10-20KTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 Latest satellite water vapor loop shows southern stream upper low spinning over Baja while a northern stream trough moves across the Canadian Prairies. An upper level ridge extends from the gulf coast into Nebraska. A surface cold front stretched from southern Minnesota to near Scotts Bluff Nebraska at 19Z. Dew points have dropped into the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon with relative humidity ranging from around 10 percent in north central Kansas to the teens across much of northeast and east central Kansas. Expect extreme fire danger to continue into the early evening hours as currently forecast. Once again the RAP has been the best performer with regards to dew points and have used into the mid evening hours. Tonight the cold front will move south into north central Kansas this evening, then proceed south across the rest of the area through the night. Winds will be gusty from the north with sustained speeds around 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph with a tight pressure gradient present behind the front. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s. As the surface high moves east and south through the day on Tuesday gusty northeast winds will be on the decrease in the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes. Cold advection Tuesday will lead to highs around normal for mid March with readings in the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .Tuesday Night thru Thursday... The remnants of the cutoff low in the TX Big Bend will begin to eject northeastward into the south central plains Tuesday night. As it does...moisture/warm air advection will spread northeastward into the cwa with increasing chances of rain late in the night into Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be in the middle to upper 30s across the south. Models are in fair agreement on keeping pops mainly across the southeast half of the county warning area during the day Wednesday before the shortwave trough passes off to the east and southeast of the cwa Wednesday night. Will only leave a slight chance for rain in the far southeast corner. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. On Thursday boundary stalls to the south of the cwa...however the next upstream shortwave trough will be approaching through the day and have left a slight chance for rain across the southeast half of the cwa as the NAM and GEM models still develop some rain north of the front...although the GFS and EC are drier with precip further south. Highs Thursday with the clouds...northeast winds and precip chances should be limited to the middle to upper 50s. .Thursday Night thru Monday... By Friday afternoon, a split flow pattern begins to set up with a cut off low situated over the Baja Peninsula and a northern stream ridge axis over Idaho. This southern system will continue to move west throughout Saturday, and will allow warm air advection to take place due to a strong upper level jet streaming in warmer air from the southwest. A north/south thermal axis on Saturday sets up highs in the mid 60s to the north transitioning to the lower 70s to the south. Highs Sunday will be cooler as a colder airmass to the north skims the Kansas/Nebraska boarder. After Sunday, models tend to disagree with how to handle the next wave moving out of the Rockies. As of now, have a slight chance for precipitation Monday, but this could change with future model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 555 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 Expect VFR conds to persist through this forecast for the sites. Biggest issue will be the timing of the cold front which is expected to move through MHK around 03z to 05z and TOP in 4z to 5z time frame. Gusty northeast winds will prevail after 06z at all sites. Expect SCT stratocumulus to develop behind the front but bulk of guidance and sat obs suggest any CIG restrictions should stay east of the sites toward sunrise Tues. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Heller/63 AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 Latest satellite water vapor loop shows southern stream upper low spinning over Baja while a northern stream trough moves across the Canadian Prairies. An upper level ridge extends from the gulf coast into Nebraska. A surface cold front stretched from southern Minnesota to near Scotts Bluff Nebraska at 19Z. Dew points have dropped into the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon with relative humidity ranging from around 10 percent in north central Kansas to the teens across much of northeast and east central Kansas. Expect extreme fire danger to continue into the early evening hours as currently forecast. Once again the RAP has been the best performer with regards to dew points and have used into the mid evening hours. Tonight the cold front will move south into north central Kansas this evening, then proceed south across the rest of the area through the night. Winds will be gusty from the north with sustained speeds around 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph with a tight pressure gradient present behind the front. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s. As the surface high moves east and south through the day on Tuesday gusty northeast winds will be on the decrease in the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes. Cold advection Tuesday will lead to highs around normal for mid March with readings in the mid to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .Tuesday Night thru Thursday... The remnants of the cutoff low in the TX Big Bend will begin to eject northeastward into the south central plains Tuesday night. As it does...moisture/warm air advection will spread northeastward into the cwa with increasing chances of rain late in the night into Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be in the middle to upper 30s across the south. Models are in fair agreement on keeping pops mainly across the southeast half of the county warning area during the day Wednesday before the shortwave trough passes off to the east and southeast of the cwa Wednesday night. Will only leave a slight chance for rain in the far southeast corner. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s. On Thursday boundary stalls to the south of the cwa...however the next upstream shortwave trough will be approaching through the day and have left a slight chance for rain across the southeast half of the cwa as the NAM and GEM models still develop some rain north of the front...although the GFS and EC are drier with precip further south. Highs Thursday with the clouds...northeast winds and precip chances should be limited to the middle to upper 50s. .Thursday Night thru Monday... By Friday afternoon, a split flow pattern begins to set up with a cut off low situated over the Baja Peninsula and a northern stream ridge axis over Idaho. This southern system will continue to move west throughout Saturday, and will allow warm air advection to take place due to a strong upper level jet streaming in warmer air from the southwest. A north/south thermal axis on Saturday sets up highs in the mid 60s to the north transitioning to the lower 70s to the south. Highs Sunday will be cooler as a colder airmass to the north skims the Kansas/Nebraska boarder. After Sunday, models tend to disagree with how to handle the next wave moving out of the Rockies. As of now, have a slight chance for precipitation Monday, but this could change with future model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR conditions will remain through the entire TAF period. Winds will continue to be strong and gust out of the southwest. This evening, expect winds to calm a bit before the cold front moving in from the North enters the TAF sites about midnight time frame. Winds should be expected to pick up considerably after passage of this front and could gust up to the 30kt range or a bit higher from a northerly direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 Sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts to over 30 mph are expected to continue through the afternoon before decreasing early this evening. Expect relative humidities to drop into the single digits in north central Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas as temperatures remain in the mid and upper 80s. Therefore will keep the Red Flag Warning going through 8 PM for all counties. The cold front is expected to move into north central Kansas in the 02Z-03Z time period then continue to move through the rest of the fire district by 07Z. Behind the front winds shift to the north, and rapidly increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This will be particularly important for any active fires, and or possible smoldering fuels that could potentially reignite. Very high fire danger is expected again on Tuesday as dry air remains over the area and winds continue to be gusty into the afternoon hours. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Heller/63 AVIATION...Drake FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM (RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE. OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW). NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45 MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW. TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST 3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60. IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DROPPING BELOW 12 KT AT KMCK TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KGLD THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016- 028-029-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM (RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE. OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW). NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45 MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW. TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST 3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER LOW CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOKS GOOD. AT THE TAIL END OF THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA GET CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST NOR PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER BOTH TERMINALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DROPPING BELOW 12 KT AT KMCK TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KGLD THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016- 028-029-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 TODAY: THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS. 1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING 2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70. A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT. MOVED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KICT AND KCNU UP A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ARE TRENDING STRONGER SO INCREASED THE POST FRONTAL WIND FORECAST. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND 4KFT. THE 15Z RAP...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY GOOD WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST...REMAINS RATHER DRY TO THE END OF ITS FORECAST CYCLE IN AWIPS. IT IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL. KRC && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908 CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012 RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012 SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901 BILLINGS WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30 NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30 ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70 RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20 SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20 MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30 COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80 CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50 PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 ...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 TODAY: THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS. 1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING 2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70. A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INCREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH BETTER MIXING THAN YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN SITES THIS EVENING...AND OVER REMAINDER OF THE SITES DURING THE NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONT. -HOWERTON && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908 CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012 RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012 SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901 BILLINGS WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30 NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30 ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70 RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20 SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20 MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30 COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80 CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50 PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 TODAY: THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS. 1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING 2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70. A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHTER DURING MONDAY...AND WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE PROJECTED AREA-WIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD APPROACHING INTERSTATE 70 TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD...AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT RSL AND SLN AROUND 04 UTC/17TH. JMC && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. BILLINGS WRIGHT && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908 CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012 RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012 SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901 BILLINGS WRIGHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30 NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30 ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70 RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10 GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20 SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20 MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30 COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80 CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60 IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50 PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to 20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70 which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight. As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location. Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it a warning. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south. Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s. For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts of moisture to the region. The best chance will be likely be on Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft. However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general showers. Then we do start to become a little more active into the late Sunday time frame. During this time, the upper level pattern begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise. However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of any associated low or good forcing. Temperatures do still look to be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by Saturday. Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although there is a very small chance for vis restrictions mainly at TOP as low level moisture tries to move north into the area. Winds between 500 and 1500 feet AGL are measured by radar profilers between 40 and 50 kts, and are expected to persist at these speeds through 12Z. Surface wind gusts will increase to around 25 kts during the day from the southwest with a strong cold front moving through TAF sites near the end of the period, with gusts greater than 35 kts possible from the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Monday is looking similar to today across areas north and west of the I-35 corridor with RH levels falling into the 11-20 percent range in this area as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. RH may hold slightly higher south of I-35. Winds are more likely to gust to 25-30 mph across the entire area on Monday, especially in the early to mid afternoon. Confidence is increasing that the Fire Weather watch may need to be upgraded to a Red Flag warning...but will let the shifts later tonight reevaluate the need following the expiration of the current Red Flag warning in effect this evening. Also of note will be a strong cold front moving through the area, entering far northern KS around 9 PM, I-70 by midnight, and I-35 by 2 AM. This front will bring wind gusts greater than 40 mph from the north and northeast overnight, and while this will occur during higher RH, it may cause flare ups especially within 1 hour of the front passage. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM...Drake/53 AVIATION...Barjenbruch FIRE WEATHER...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1124 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...WITHOUT ANY OVERALL CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR TUESDAY TO FINE TUNE THE NONDIURNAL TRENDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPDATED THE GRIDS PRIMARILY TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WX GRIDS AND ADJUST THE SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS WELL WITH THE UPDATED GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE... PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL. GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE... SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION. THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 UPDATED THE GRIDS PRIMARILY TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WX GRIDS AND ADJUST THE SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS WELL WITH THE UPDATED GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE... PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL. GIVEN THE SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE... SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION. THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE... PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL. GIVEN THE SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE... SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION. THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR BR AT SME TOWARDS DAWN AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THERE ARE THE LOWEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BY FAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
729 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. WITH THE CONFLUDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...STRONG NW GRADIENT FLOW PREVAILED AHEAD OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BNDRY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 0 TO 10F RANGE...ONLY HIGH BASED CU HAD DEVELOPED. AN OPEN PATCH OF WATER OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALLOWED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FROM P53 EASTWARD. TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED NW FLOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE ERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKE. WED...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE - 8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOL WITH LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT...AS BEEN THE CASE SO FREQUENTLY THIS YEAR...WILL BE SET UP AT 00Z THURSDAY...AS 2 500MB LOWS REMAIN TO OUR N /OVER HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND/. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST SFC HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP UP 2-5F FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 40-46F. ALSO THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING...AND W QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. THE 500MB NEWFOUNDLAND LOW WILL EXIT N...WHILE THE HUDSON BAY LOW DIGS S ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. SFC TEMPS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...NEARING 30F SOUTH CENTRAL...AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE 500MB LOW TO EXIT INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EXIT OF THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOOKS LIKE AFTER FRIDAY...WE WILL GET BACK TO THESE NORMAL HIGH TEMP VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH 1-2HRS AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ON WED WITH HIGH PRES ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 30 KTS TODAY UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST W-E FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A CLOSED H5 LO MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY. A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND IN THE RRQ OF 160KT H3 JET MAX WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RA STRETCHING FM NRN MN THRU UPR MI DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX/GRB RAOBS. DRYING ALF AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT IS CAUSING THE PCPN OVER NRN MN TO DIMINISH STEADILY. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM 15C AT MPX AND ABERDEEN SDAKOTA TO -12C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO POPS/DRYING TREND/PTYPE AS UPSTREAM SHRTWVS/COLD FNT PROPAGATE TO THE ESE. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW TNGT/TUE IN THE NW FLOW E OF HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN UNDER DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT AND BAND OF FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SRN DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE CWA. WITH BAND OF FGEN AND SOMEWHAT HIER H85 DEWPTS CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...EXPECT THE LOWER POPS/RA TOTALS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER LLVL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE N BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE AND END THE PCPN NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CLDS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOCLR WITH THE VIGOROUS DRYING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LO AS THE MID TEENS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W HALF PER FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR -14C AND UPSTREAM OBS THIS MRNG. TUE...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG NW FLOW OF COLD AIR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES...ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW/DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS/INVERTED V LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL T/TD PROFILES AND LINGERING LK ICE WL LIMIT LES POPS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF IS FCST TO SWEEP THRU NRN ONTARIO...BUT PASSAGE OF ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE N AND DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NE LK SUP AND IN AREAS E OF MUNISING THAT WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE ONTARIO DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. BUT EVEN HERE...NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. THE COMBINATION OF H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS...CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS. GOING FCST HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LO 30S NEAR LK SUP TO THE LO 40S OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SEEM REASONABLE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S MND IA AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S HUDSON BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED S OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND S MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THIS FEATURE TO PUSH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE N TIER COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS TO FAR E ONTARIO DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW FAR N. YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO SIDE IN FROM THE NW FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS COLDER AIR INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL TO AROUND -16 TO -21C /LOWEST N/ BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON STEADY N TO NW WINDS. SFC HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT TO THE E SUNDAY EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -11 TO -13C FOR MONDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE OUT OF THE W AND ANY LINGERING LES DIMINISHES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RA TO IMPACT THE SITES THRU THIS AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE N FLOW WL AID IN LOWERING CIGS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY LO CIGS EVEN AT PLACES IN MN WHERE -RA HAS BEEN FALLING FOR HRS WARRANTS NO LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE IWD AND SAW WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA WL FALL. THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH SN FOR A BIT BEFORE STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA ENDS THIS WX EARLY IN THE EVNG AND CAUSES CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY N WINDS THIS EVNG...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE...GUSTY NW WINDS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND ON TUE UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MARGINAL GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER MAINLY THE E HALF...BUT MENTIONED ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST W-E FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A CLOSED H5 LO MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY. A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND IN THE RRQ OF 160KT H3 JET MAX WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN IS GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RA STRETCHING FM NRN MN THRU UPR MI DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL/MPX/GRB RAOBS. DRYING ALF AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT IS CAUSING THE PCPN OVER NRN MN TO DIMINISH STEADILY. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM 15C AT MPX AND ABERDEEN SDAKOTA TO -12C AT THE PAS MANITOBA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO POPS/DRYING TREND/PTYPE AS UPSTREAM SHRTWVS/COLD FNT PROPAGATE TO THE ESE. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW TNGT/TUE IN THE NW FLOW E OF HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN UNDER DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT AND BAND OF FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SRN DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE CWA. WITH BAND OF FGEN AND SOMEWHAT HIER H85 DEWPTS CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...EXPECT THE LOWER POPS/RA TOTALS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER/DRIER LLVL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA MAY ALLOW THE PCPN TO MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE N BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE AND END THE PCPN NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CLDS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOCLR WITH THE VIGOROUS DRYING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LO AS THE MID TEENS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W HALF PER FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR -14C AND UPSTREAM OBS THIS MRNG. TUE...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG NW FLOW OF COLD AIR TO THE E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES...ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW/DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS/INVERTED V LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL T/TD PROFILES AND LINGERING LK ICE WL LIMIT LES POPS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALF IS FCST TO SWEEP THRU NRN ONTARIO...BUT PASSAGE OF ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE N AND DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NE LK SUP AND IN AREAS E OF MUNISING THAT WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE ONTARIO DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. BUT EVEN HERE...NO MORE THAN SCHC POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. THE COMBINATION OF H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS...CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS. GOING FCST HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LO 30S NEAR LK SUP TO THE LO 40S OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SEEM REASONABLE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE AT A MINIMUM...THOUGH COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS OVER 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY...NO LARGE SCALE PRECIP IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION DEFICITS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT NWS MARQUETTE ARE OVER 1 INCH AND DEFICITS FOR 2015 THUS FAR ARE NEARING 3 INCHES. DESPITE TEMPS COOLING OVER RECENT VALUES THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COLDEST DAYS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN WAKE OF STRONGER COLD FRONTS. FOR TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE FAR SCNTRL CWA COULD REACH 40 DEGREES. GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. H85 THERMAL TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ON EDGE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ON PERIFERY OF UPPER TROUGH JUSTIFY SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. DRY ELSEWHERE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AWAY FM THE LIFT FM THE RIBBON OF SHEARING OUT WAVES ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIPS FM NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BLYR WINDS BECOMING WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS BY AFTN. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOW 50S READINGS INLAND IF MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH. A BIT OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TRACKING FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY RESULT IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF CWA BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER SOME INTO THURSDAY. COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORK THROUGH ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF QPF ON THE FRONT. RETAINED CONSENSUS FOR NOW. HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SWINGING NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE READINGS STAY IN THE 30S. INLAND SCNTRL AREAS WILL MAKE RUN AT 50 DEGREES AS SNOW COVER IS GONE NOW AND WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND MIXING TO H85. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ALOFT BY SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS FM GFS AND ECMWF SOUTH OF -20C. CARRIED SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT GIVEN THE CHILL OF AIRMASS AND SINCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER ON LK SUPERIOR. WITH A STIFF NNW-N WIND ON SATURDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT EVEN REACH 20 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. CHILLY NIGHT POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RA TO IMPACT THE SITES THRU THIS AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE NW. ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE N FLOW WL AID IN LOWERING CIGS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY LO CIGS EVEN AT PLACES IN MN WHERE -RA HAS BEEN FALLING FOR HRS WARRANTS NO LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE IWD AND SAW WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA WL FALL. THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH SN FOR A BIT BEFORE STRONG DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA ENDS THIS WX EARLY IN THE EVNG AND CAUSES CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY N WINDS THIS EVNG...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE...GUSTY NW WINDS WL IMPACT ALL THE SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015 NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND ON TUE UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A MARGINAL GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER MAINLY THE E HALF...BUT MENTIONED ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
857 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... .UPDATE... THE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PROGRESSION WELL...THUS HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS TO BRING THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS IN A LITTLE SOONER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. REIMER && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... STRONG FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION CONTINUES BUT FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS PRETTY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS SO NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. ONE QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG REFORMS DURING DIURNAL COOLING. THINK PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BUT VERY DRY GROUND AHEAD OF THIS STORM IS CAUSING IT TO ABSORB THE MOISTURE SO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE INCREASED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PATCHY FOG FOR BILLINGS AREA STRETCHING TOWARDS THE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT IT ALLOWS A BETTER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP BUT BEST DYNAMICS ARE STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST RUNS OF RAPID REFRESH ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER SO HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT FOR OTHER AREAS. WHEATLAND AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVERNIGHT BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH. WAVE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THIS ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS BETTER DRYING TO BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. STILL MID LEVELS WILL BE MOIST AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WARMING COULD SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. BREAKDOWN OF THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY FOR WESTERN AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE REGION AND DRAGS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY WITH IT. BECAUSE AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOT DRAMATIC MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF PRECIPITATION SO NOT COMPLETELY DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THURSDAY A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS AS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE AXIS TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BETTER SUNSHINE AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 60 BY AFTERNOON. A LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AIDING THE WARMING AND THIS FEATURE IS PUSHED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER. BORSUM .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... MADE JUST SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND MODELS HAD DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A BACK DOOR FRONT WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF THE AREA. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON FRI BASED ON EXPECTED MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES. A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE WESTERN ZONES ON SAT...WHILE THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE E PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL REMAIN WARM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SAT...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE E. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN. GFS MOVED THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SUN WILL BE A COOLER DAY DUE TO THE SYSTEMS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MON BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON TUE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ARTHUR && .AVIATION... LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME FOG WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR WITH LOCALIZED LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH A SHIFT TO W-NW WINDS TOMORROW...AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED FREQUENTLY ON WEDNESDAY. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 035/055 037/062 039/067 037/064 037/055 031/060 038/063 63/W 31/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 11/B LVM 036/050 034/058 038/066 039/065 036/054 030/059 035/058 65/W 21/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 13/W HDN 034/056 032/064 034/069 034/067 034/055 028/062 034/067 52/W 21/B 00/B 10/B 22/W 11/B 11/B MLS 030/046 032/058 035/063 033/057 029/046 024/054 028/061 63/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 11/B 4BQ 030/051 032/060 034/067 034/063 030/048 027/056 031/062 42/W 21/B 00/U 10/B 23/W 21/B 11/B BHK 026/042 028/051 030/058 027/049 022/039 021/048 025/057 54/W 21/B 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 11/B SHR 034/055 033/058 033/066 035/067 035/052 028/057 033/063 23/W 32/W 00/U 10/B 22/W 21/B 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
940 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST ECHOES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT MOST ECHOES ARE SNOW...BUT THERE IS ALSO FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL KEEP EASTERN PARTS OF THE WSW GOING UNTIL NOON AND CLEAR VALLEY AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. ECHOES ARE DIMINISHING IN THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A SURFACE HIGH IN ALBERTA...SURFACE WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE BRISK IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO REDUCED TO HRRR MODEL. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC SET UP...SHORT RANGES BEGINS WITH COLDEST AIR RUNNING FROM THE ARCTIC THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...A BROAD WARM RIDGE RUNS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND COMES TO A WARM HEAD OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS VERY TIGHT GRADIENT SPREADS OUT GOING WEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE NA COAST. TODAY...COLD FRONT SHARPENING THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE CWA AROUND 6AM TO NOON. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED DIMINISHING...SNOW TOTALS WILL REDUCE FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. TONIGHT...COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL SHUNT THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS AND CUT OFF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FEED INTO MONTANA. IN ADDITION PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX AND DRY OUT MOST OF THE ENVIRONMENT. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND PUSH THE FRONT RANGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED AND OVERRUN THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DEFUSE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME MAKING COVERAGE A LOT WIDER WITH MULTIPLE LIGHTER BANDS. STORM TOTAL SNOW LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES WITH THIS PASSAGE. GAH .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREAS WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE IN MOST AREAS WITH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEING WARMER. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER... BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARDS DRY SLOTTING FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT THIS POINT. FORRESTER && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR BECOMING VFR. SNOW GIVING THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA. CIGS: IMPROVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY FROM NW TO SE. SURFACE WINDS: NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR DANIELS... EASTERN ROOSEVELT...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT THEDFORD. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN-TACT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGAN TO DROP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO KONL AT 18Z WHERE LOCATIONS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WERE SEEING STRONG WARMING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MID 80S BY 18Z. SO STILL ANTICIPATE FURTHER WARMING IN LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85 AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT. FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS 0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AOA 3K FEET MOVING INTO NORTHERN THEN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THESE CEILINGS WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BROOKS SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85 AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT. FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS 0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AROUND 19Z AND AT THE KLBF TERMINAL AT 21Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL TODAY...FALLING TO 3000 FT AGL THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL BECOME BROKEN AND FALL TO 10000 FT AGL THIS EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT THEDFORD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85 AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT. FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS 0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 20000 TO 25000 FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
940 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EC INTO THE NE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER CHANGES...CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST BUT LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR INSIST SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE A LARGE AREA OF -RA OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF NM WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KROW WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY BTWN 04-13Z. VERTICAL PROFILES HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS NEAR 008 WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BTWN 06-09Z HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS JUST YET. FARTHER WEST...A MORE DISTINCT LINE OF -SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONT DVD WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL MOST LIKELY AS THIS PRECIP MOVES EAST...HOWEVER WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WITH THE 00Z MODEL TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING. GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR IMPACTS WOULD BE AT KAEG BTWN 11-13Z. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015... .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM WILL DRAG ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COLLIDE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CREATE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS MULTI DAY PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 9000 FEET. GRADUAL DRIER AND WARMER TREND EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS/QPF ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DUE TO EXPECTED BANDED PRECIPITATION THERE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND FORECAST MODELS SUPPORT THIS THOUGHT. DESPITE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NE PLAINS/HIGHLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY ENOUGH TO LIMIT MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT WED AFTERNOON AND FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE MTN AREAS INCLUDING THE WC/SW AND NC MTNS WEDNESDAY. DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING WED AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE IMPACTS. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN LIFT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COMBINE WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS SHOWS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVERALL. THUS IMPACT TO TRAVELERS WILL BE LESS. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 9000 FEET BUT THOSE ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES DURING A 48 HOUR SPAN. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND BUT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT SOME MORE ORGANIZED WIND/STRONGER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UP MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO CATRON COUNTY AND THE GILA NF/WILDERNESS. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS LIGHT OT MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL START TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIMITING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE. MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH ANOTHER WITH REGARD TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR MARCH. THE PHASING TROUGHS FILL/WEAKEN OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ADJACENT EASTERLY FOOTHILLS/HIGHLANDS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NM WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATING IN FROM THE WEST. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. CONT TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WHERE SOME AFTN HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG CONFIGURATION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. AVIATION... MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG THROUGH 15Z IS THE MAIN CONCERN. ADDED MENTION AT MOST SITES SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR KLAW. DONT THINK CONDITIONS WILL GO BELOW MINIMUMS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 14-24Z. ADDED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KPNC 00-09Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. THIS MAY OCCUR NEAR KOKC AND KOUN AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 06-12Z AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WIND INCREASING WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS... GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR 800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK. A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION... EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80 HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80 GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40 PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60 DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>018-021. TX...NONE. && $$ 30/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
636 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG THROUGH 15Z IS THE MAIN CONCERN. ADDED MENTION AT MOST SITES SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR KLAW. DONT THINK CONDITIONS WILL GO BELOW MINIMUMS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 14-24Z. ADDED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KPNC 00-09Z WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. THIS MAY OCCUR NEAR KOKC AND KOUN AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 06-12Z AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WIND INCREASING WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS... GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR 800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK. A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION... EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80 HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80 GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40 PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60 DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>018-021. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED. TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS... GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR 800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK... EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK. A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION... EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80 HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80 GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40 PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60 DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>018-021. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
210 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS (WHICH UPDATES HOURLY) HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF JOSEPHINE...COOS AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY, THEN DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS THE EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT A FEW COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OF NOTE THE NAM ALSO SHOWS QPF IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT, THEN FINALLY KICKS NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. AFTER TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON THURSDAY WITH PARTS OF THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING MEDFORD GETTING NEAR OR INTO THE LOWER 70S. -PETRUCELLI .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ABOUT THE DETAILS OF AN UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, THE GENERAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY THE SAME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE FRIDAY, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SUNDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING A MUCH DEEPER, STRONGER, AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT SEVEN DAYS OUT, THE DETAILS ARE OF COURSE QUITE SKETCHY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN MODELS, AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS, WHICH RESULTS IN A POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAINS, AS WELL AS A CHANCE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO THE ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER PASSES. WILL MONITOR THESE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. -BPN && .AVIATION...FOR THE 16/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN ALL AREA VALLEYS. -BPN && .MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PDT MONDAY 16 MAR 2015...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY. -BPN/WRIGHT && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE. $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
807 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE JUST DONE A QUICK UPDATE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWNWARD AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AND ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS TO THE EAST. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ A WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY BETWEEN KAFW AND THE REST OF THE METROPLEX-AREA TAF LOCALES. IT STILL CAN BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS GETTING ANOTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH...BUT IT MAY TAKE IT ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF DALLAS. WE WILL BEGIN THE AFW TAF WITH NORTH WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT... WITH FROPA AT DFW AND FTW AT 01Z....GKY AND DAL 02Z. EITHER WAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KACT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST SO ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. STRONGER LIFT AND A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PROBABLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WE WILL CARRY PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WE MAY ADD A PERIOD OF THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATED HI-RES MODEL DATA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RAP OUT TO 18 HOURS IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE REGION SAW MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO BONHAM AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW. WITHOUT TAKING A PEEK AT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST GOING DOWN THE HEAVY RAINFALL RAINFALL CHECKLIST...ALL INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A SLOW MOVING FRONT...STRONG LIFT...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CURIOUSLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RAINFALL PROSPECTS...COMING IN DRIER AND SHOWING JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES...BUT 20 YEARS AGO THIS SETUP PROBABLY WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST BASED ON THE ANALYSIS DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHAT I GATHER FROM THE UNANIMOUSLY DRIER MODEL DATA IS THAT BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING UP FROM AN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHERLY TRACK IT IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF REALLY DRY AIR OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE DRY SLOT TRACKS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BANDS. AM STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALTOGETHER. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF I-35...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LIFT WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST AND DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BAND WILL SET UP NEAR A FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND MORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE IT AFFECTING JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE. A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AND WEAK FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED LIFT SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC LIFT RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA WHEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE AXIS OF RAIN. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY THESE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTH TO 1 INCH SOUTH. PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS RAINY SUNDAY FORECAST IS VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 68 61 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 60 WACO, TX 60 71 62 76 60 / 70 70 20 20 50 PARIS, TX 55 61 57 67 55 / 50 80 30 20 50 DENTON, TX 55 67 59 73 55 / 60 60 20 20 60 MCKINNEY, TX 56 66 58 71 56 / 60 70 20 20 60 DALLAS, TX 59 69 61 73 59 / 60 70 20 20 60 TERRELL, TX 60 70 61 73 59 / 50 80 20 20 50 CORSICANA, TX 61 70 60 74 61 / 50 80 30 20 50 TEMPLE, TX 61 71 62 75 61 / 70 70 20 20 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 53 67 59 75 56 / 60 50 10 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
658 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... Have sent a quick update to the forecast for this evening to raise PoPs across the Concho Valley area where we are getting rain currently, and could possibly see some more showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two as additional lift moves into the area with the main low moving into the area. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR ceilings will likely fall to IFR this evening south of the I-20 corridor. A weak cold front just north of San Angelo will move slowly south and gradually dissipate along the I-10 corridor through Wednesday morning, returning as a warm front midday Wednesday. KABI CIGS will likely stay at MVFR overnight, being farther north of the cold front. There will likely be an increase in showers this evening with approach of an upper low, with the rain pushing east over all but KBBD and KJCT 12Z Wednesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this afternoon. Models are consistent with tracking this weakening system into West Central Texas tonight and then away from the area on Wednesday. Large area of mainly light rainfall continues across a large portion of the area this afternoon, producing rainfall totals of less than one tenth of an inch. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in the deformation zone. HRRR shows a large area of convection redeveloping to the southwest, but not sure that`s going to happen with the extensive cloud cover that extends as far south as the Rio Grande. At this point, will assume some widespread rain for much of West Central Texas, with a relative lull with only scattered activity from San Angelo southwest into Ozona and Sonora. For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low itself or under the upper level dry slot. Best lift will exit the eastern counties from Brownwood to Junction during the morning hours. Thus, best PoPs to the east will dry conditions returning for most areas for the afternoon. May be hard pressed to get rid of cloud cover though and expect it to take much of the day before clouds break. LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday, sending a cold front south into the Big Country Thursday night, then through the rest of the area Friday. In the meantime, an upper level low will be located across Baja California, which is forecast to trek across Central Texas Saturday. Ahead of this feature, disturbances in the southwest flow aloft along with the aforementioned cold front will result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. High end chance PoPs were continued for much of West Central Texas Thursday night, with the better rain chances shifting to the southern half of the area on Friday. As previously mentioned, the upper level low across Baja California will open up and move across Central Texas on Saturday. The current forecast track of this system favors the heaviest precipitation across our southern counties and south into Central Texas. PoPs Friday night and Saturday will range from chance across the Big Country to likely across the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances will decrease Saturday evening as the upper level system moves east of the region. Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be above normal, generally in the upper 70s to near 80. The forecast cloud cover/precipitation on Friday/Saturday will result in high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect near normal temperatures for the first part of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Models are indicating another upper level trough swinging across the Southern Plains early next week, possibly bringing a chance of rain to the eastern half of West Central Texas. For now, PoPs were left out of the forecast and will continue to monitor on future trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 67 53 76 52 / 70 30 10 20 50 San Angelo 51 70 55 80 55 / 80 20 10 20 50 Junction 53 71 58 80 59 / 80 40 10 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BRIEFLY STATIONARY BETWEEN KAFW AND THE REST OF THE METROPLEX-AREA TAF LOCALES. IT STILL CAN BE SEEN ON AREA RADARS GETTING ANOTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH...BUT IT MAY TAKE IT ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF DALLAS. WE WILL BEGIN THE AFW TAF WITH NORTH WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT... WITH FROPA AT DFW AND FTW AT 01Z....GKY AND DAL 02Z. EITHER WAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KACT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST SO ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. STRONGER LIFT AND A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...PROBABLY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WE WILL CARRY PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WE MAY ADD A PERIOD OF THUNDER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATED HI-RES MODEL DATA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RAP OUT TO 18 HOURS IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE REGION SAW MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO BONHAM AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW. WITHOUT TAKING A PEEK AT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST GOING DOWN THE HEAVY RAINFALL RAINFALL CHECKLIST...ALL INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A SLOW MOVING FRONT...STRONG LIFT...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CURIOUSLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RAINFALL PROSPECTS...COMING IN DRIER AND SHOWING JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES...BUT 20 YEARS AGO THIS SETUP PROBABLY WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST BASED ON THE ANALYSIS DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHAT I GATHER FROM THE UNANIMOUSLY DRIER MODEL DATA IS THAT BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING UP FROM AN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHERLY TRACK IT IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF REALLY DRY AIR OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE DRY SLOT TRACKS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BANDS. AM STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALTOGETHER. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF I-35...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LIFT WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST AND DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BAND WILL SET UP NEAR A FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND MORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE IT AFFECTING JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE. A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AND WEAK FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED LIFT SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC LIFT RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA WHEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE AXIS OF RAIN. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY THESE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTH TO 1 INCH SOUTH. PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS RAINY SUNDAY FORECAST IS VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 68 61 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 60 WACO, TX 60 71 62 76 60 / 70 70 20 20 50 PARIS, TX 55 61 57 67 55 / 50 80 30 20 50 DENTON, TX 55 67 59 73 55 / 60 60 20 20 60 MCKINNEY, TX 56 66 58 71 56 / 60 70 20 20 60 DALLAS, TX 59 69 61 73 59 / 60 70 20 20 60 TERRELL, TX 60 70 61 73 59 / 50 80 20 20 50 CORSICANA, TX 61 70 60 74 61 / 50 80 30 20 50 TEMPLE, TX 61 71 62 75 61 / 70 70 20 20 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 53 67 59 75 56 / 60 50 10 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
629 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR ceilings will likely fall to IFR this evening south of the I-20 corridor. A weak cold front just north of San Angelo will move slowly south and gradually dissipate along the I-10 corridor through Wednesday morning, returning as a warm front midday Wednesday. KABI CIGS will likely stay at MVFR overnight, being farther north of the cold front. There will likely be an increase in showers this evening with approach of an upper low, with the rain pushing east over all but KBBD and KJCT 12Z Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this afternoon. Models are consistent with tracking this weakening system into West Central Texas tonight and then away from the area on Wednesday. Large area of mainly light rainfall continues across a large portion of the area this afternoon, producing rainfall totals of less than one tenth of an inch. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in the deformation zone. HRRR shows a large area of convection redeveloping to the southwest, but not sure that`s going to happen with the extensive cloud cover that extends as far south as the Rio Grande. At this point, will assume some widespread rain for much of West Central Texas, with a relative lull with only scattered activity from San Angelo southwest into Ozona and Sonora. For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low itself or under the upper level dry slot. Best lift will exit the eastern counties from Brownwood to Junction during the morning hours. Thus, best PoPs to the east will dry conditions returning for most areas for the afternoon. May be hard pressed to get rid of cloud cover though and expect it to take much of the day before clouds break. LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday, sending a cold front south into the Big Country Thursday night, then through the rest of the area Friday. In the meantime, an upper level low will be located across Baja California, which is forecast to trek across Central Texas Saturday. Ahead of this feature, disturbances in the southwest flow aloft along with the aforementioned cold front will result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. High end chance PoPs were continued for much of West Central Texas Thursday night, with the better rain chances shifting to the southern half of the area on Friday. As previously mentioned, the upper level low across Baja California will open up and move across Central Texas on Saturday. The current forecast track of this system favors the heaviest precipitation across our southern counties and south into Central Texas. PoPs Friday night and Saturday will range from chance across the Big Country to likely across the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances will decrease Saturday evening as the upper level system moves east of the region. Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be above normal, generally in the upper 70s to near 80. The forecast cloud cover/precipitation on Friday/Saturday will result in high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect near normal temperatures for the first part of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Models are indicating another upper level trough swinging across the Southern Plains early next week, possibly bringing a chance of rain to the eastern half of West Central Texas. For now, PoPs were left out of the forecast and will continue to monitor on future trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 67 53 76 52 / 70 30 10 20 50 San Angelo 51 70 55 80 55 / 50 20 10 20 50 Junction 53 71 58 80 59 / 70 40 10 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .AVIATION... AT THIS HOUR A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM BURNET (BMQ) TO NEW BRAUNFELS (BAZ) TO PLEASANTON (PEZ). WHEN THIS LINE WENT THROUGH SAN ANTONIO NEITHER AIRPORT REPORTED PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AROUND THE CITY. THIS LINE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED -DZ FOR A FEW HOURS AT AUS. VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH OVERCAST DECK WHILE DRT HAS BEEN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 06Z WE EXPECT IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN COMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION SOME LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED -RA AND TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VISBY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY 16Z TOMORROW...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CIGS RISING TO VFR BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. TREADWAY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD NEXT 24 HOURS THAT DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS FROM LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WELL TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ALLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS IS AIDING A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING LIGHT RAIN BAND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WHICH AS MITIGATED MUCH OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER RAP/NAM OUTPUT AND SOME EVIDENCE IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF STRONGER NE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAND EAST BUT AS IT DOES SO IT MAY OUTPACE THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS WITH HRRR NOW STARTING TO FALL INTO THAT CAMP. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK LOW-LVL INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER EAST AND THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN THE BAND UNTIL CONDITIONS COOL PAST SUNSET. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS DEPICT REGENERATING ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAP/NAM MASS FIELDS SHOW SUPPORTIVE LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT COUPLETS THAT FURTHER SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR...AN AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC COAST AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOCALIZED VORT MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. PER THE GFS...H3 AND H5 WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS 100 KT AND NEAR 50-60 KTS RESPECTIVELY COINCIDENTALLY WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH PWATS 1.3-1.5"...SOME RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN HIGHER TOTALS AND SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS. HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER LIFT MOVES EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INITIALLY THURSDAY BUT MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MID-DAY FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SW SOUTHERN BRANCH EMBEDDED H5 IMPULSES PROMOTING MID AND DEEP LAYER LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.3-1.7"...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ANOTHER LATITUDINALLY DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY...FURTHER TEMPORALY EXTENDING THE ASCENT AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT HWO. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EC ATTEMPTING TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH GFS HAVING IT WELL NORTH GIVEN BIG DIFFERENCES ON NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING STRENGTH. MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY WILL BE NEEDED BEOFRE FALLING IN LINE WITH A PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND WENT WITH A LONG TERM BLEND. /ALLEN/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 74 61 77 61 / 80 70 20 20 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 73 61 76 61 / 80 70 20 20 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 74 62 77 61 / 80 60 20 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 72 59 76 59 / 80 60 20 20 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 78 62 81 63 / 30 20 10 10 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 61 76 60 / 80 70 20 20 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 75 62 79 62 / 80 50 10 10 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 74 62 76 61 / 80 60 20 20 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 75 63 76 62 / 70 60 20 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 74 63 77 62 / 80 60 20 10 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 63 78 62 / 80 50 20 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FROM THE 00Z TAFS...SO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN COOLING TRENDS OVERNIGHT...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LEFT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP NEAR DEW POINTS BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING IN SOME MILD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION. CAVANAUGH .../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG MONDAY MORNING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN. WINDS WERE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AT 00Z...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AT 4000 - 4500 FEET AGL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT OR AROUND 4000 FEET WILL TEND TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS COULD EITHER RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF DEW...OR IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE NOT HITTING THE FOG POTENTIAL HARD TONIGHT...SO ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE MORE DEW THAN FOG BY SUNRISE. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS CERTAINLY THERE...AND LIKELY ENHANCED IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO CLEAR OUT A BIT. WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. MAY HAVE TO HIT THIS HARDER IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED SHOULD BE MET WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD HEIGHTS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS TOMORROW. IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PORTION OF THE FORECAST...RAIN/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ACCEPTANCE RATES IF THEY MOVE IN BEFORE SUNSET ON TUESDAY. CAVANAUGH && .UPDATE... A MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...ENOUGH OF WHICH HAS WARRANTED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST WHERE 10 PM READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WE STILL FEEL THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND EAST TEXAS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED NEAR ATHENS AND IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS REPLACE THE AMBIGUOUS PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...AND THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT EXPECT MANY AREAS TO BE CLEAR WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE TOO DEEP FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GONE TOMORROW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE REGION...WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS. AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPREADS INTO THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTEAD...THESE PARAMETERS COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER POINT TOWARD A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT STILL CATCHING THE WATERSHEDS OF SOME NORTH TEXAS LAKES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO SPREADING EASTWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WANE...BUT STILL EXPECT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO BE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE WILDLY VARYING FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RAIN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT IN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THEY WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BUT WILL BECOME FRONTOGENETIC THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE GOOD DYNAMIC SETUP SPELLS ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE END OF THE FORECAST IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WHICH PAINTS A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...WHILE THE GFS HAS NO SUCH TROUGH AND A SUNNY AND NICE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW AND AWAIT A BETTER CONSENSUS. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 75 59 77 58 / 5 5 5 20 70 WACO, TX 50 75 59 77 59 / 0 5 10 30 70 PARIS, TX 51 73 57 77 56 / 5 5 5 10 70 DENTON, TX 50 76 57 77 56 / 0 5 5 20 70 MCKINNEY, TX 49 73 58 77 57 / 5 5 5 10 70 DALLAS, TX 52 75 60 77 59 / 5 5 5 20 70 TERRELL, TX 52 75 59 77 59 / 5 5 5 10 60 CORSICANA, TX 54 74 58 77 60 / 5 5 5 10 60 TEMPLE, TX 50 74 58 77 60 / 0 5 10 30 70 MINERAL WELLS, TX 49 77 58 76 55 / 0 5 5 30 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 131 AM EDT...INTENSE SNOWBAND IN LOW- MID LEVEL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. THE LATEST HRRR INITIALLY SHOWED A BAND IMPACTING THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS AROUND 02Z/WED...BUT THEN IT DIMINISHED OR WEAKENED QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS HELD TOGETHER AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE HSA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS NOW ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO ABOUT AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES OVER THE SRN GREENS...ADIRONDACK PARK...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO OUR EAST TIGHTENS UP. MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS SHOW STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS THE WIND FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES NNW FAVORING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER THE REGION WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED. WITH MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500 HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY EXCPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUDS DECK BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF. LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 12 KTS...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF. OUTLOOK... LATE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN. SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/JPV NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...GJM FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 131 AM EDT...INTENSE SNOWBAND IN LOW- MID LEVEL NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. THE LATEST HRRR INITIALLY SHOWED A BAND IMPACTING THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS AROUND 02Z/WED...BUT THEN IT DIMINISHED OR WEAKENED QUICKLY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS HELD TOGETHER AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE HSA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS NOW ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO ABOUT AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES OVER THE SRN GREENS...ADIRONDACK PARK...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE NW FLOW REGIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH TO THE WEST AND LOW TO OUR EAST TIGHTENS UP. MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS SHOW STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY BUT AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AS THE WIND FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES NNW FAVORING LAKE EFFECT MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIR AND CONTINUED COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BUT THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT OVER THE REGION WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED. WITH MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500 HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PERSISTING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS...THEN INCREASING TO SPEEDS SIMILAR TO TODAY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN. WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN. SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WASULA NEAR TERM...WASULA SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...LFM AVIATION...SND/11/JPV FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BISECTED THE STATE OF IOWA TODAY AND WERE MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS MOISTURE WAS MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXTREMELY DRY AIR...LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN WAS FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS WAS LEADING TO EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE ZERO DIGITS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH COMPUTER GUIDANCE VIRTUALLY USELESS FOR THE DEWPOINTS TODAY THE FORECAST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. HIRES HOURLY MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE. NONE OF THE 12Z REGIONAL AND SPECTRAL MODELS COME EVEN CLOSE TO HANDLING THE DRY AIR WELL...SO FORCED TO USE THE HRRR AND THE RUC FOR DEW POINT TEMPS. THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND CAN ADVECT LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...USED THE RUC AND HRRR DEWPOINTS AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED FROM THERE. MODELS HAVE WARMED UP TONIGHT WITH LOWS. NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...SO WENT WITH LOW END OF GUIDANCE...SINCE WE COULD DROP FAST TONIGHT TEMP WISE BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND NORMAL LIKE TODAY. I POPULATED WITH THE ALLBLEND...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SUPERBLEND. THOUGHT THIS WAS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. WE SHOULDN`T BE AS DRY AS WE WERE TODAY...SO THE THREAT OF HIGH FIRE DANGER SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 OVERVIEW...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 540 DAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THURSDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND SINCE RAW MODELS TEND TO PERFORM BETTER IN THESE PATTERN SHIFT REGIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 850 MB TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR -4 C. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS THE S/SE CWA BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MOISTURE STARVED. FRIDAY...WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVG IN THE LOW 60S AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE +4-8 C RANGE WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 550 DAM. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLIDING A SPRAWLING 1030-1035 MB SFC HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. EXPECT A STEADY NW FLOW ON SAT AND THEN EAST WINDS ON SUN. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL AS LOW AS -8 C PER THE ECMWF BY SAT NIGHT. AGAIN WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE SUPERBLEND WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS IN A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER LIKE THIS. MONDAY...VORTICITY MAX IN THE NW FLOW MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE REGION. 40S FOR HIGHS BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL VERY LOW. THE NEXT WARM-UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE RETURN FLOW KICKS IN...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS AOA 12K AGL AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIBBS SHORT TERM...GIBBS LONG TERM...UTTECH AVIATION...NICHOLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1052 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER WORDING IN FORECAST. GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBS SO HAVE MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE. THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST. AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO WINDS. TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING. INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE IS BETTER CLEARING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY AMOUNTS. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SCT-BKN200. WINDS FOR KGLD WILL START FROM THE SE AT 10KTS BECOMING SOUTH BY MIDDAY 10-20KTS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SE BY 00Z AT 10KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL SEE ESE AT 10KTS THRU 15Z THEN SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO ESE BY 00Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
150 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. WITH THE CONFLUDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...STRONG NW GRADIENT FLOW PREVAILED AHEAD OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BNDRY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 0 TO 10F RANGE...ONLY HIGH BASED CU HAD DEVELOPED. AN OPEN PATCH OF WATER OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALLOWED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP FROM P53 EASTWARD. TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED NW FLOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE ERN CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKE. WED...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE - 8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 COOL WITH LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NW FLOW ALOFT...AS BEEN THE CASE SO FREQUENTLY THIS YEAR...WILL BE SET UP AT 00Z THURSDAY...AS 2 500MB LOWS REMAIN TO OUR N /OVER HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND/. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST SFC HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT...SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP UP 2-5F FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 40-46F. ALSO THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING...AND W QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. THE 500MB NEWFOUNDLAND LOW WILL EXIT N...WHILE THE HUDSON BAY LOW DIGS S ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. SFC TEMPS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S...NEARING 30F SOUTH CENTRAL...AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE 500MB LOW TO EXIT INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EXIT OF THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN DRIFT E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOOKS LIKE AFTER FRIDAY...WE WILL GET BACK TO THESE NORMAL HIGH TEMP VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO HIGH PRES ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 30 KTS TODAY UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
349 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the forecast area. mpj Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance. Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal temperatures. Brusda && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0000Z. Surface low pressure extending extending north through central MT will shift east while an upper level weather system now crossing the Northern Rockies also moves east across the region tonight. Deep moisture will continue across the area with widespread -RA/SN/DZ impacting most terminals along with MVFR/IFR cigs. Occasional IFR/LIFR conditions possible as well late tonight as temperatures cool slightly for a mix/change to snow and low levels become saturated for areas of FG/DZ. As axis of surface and upper level troughs move east of the region Wednesday morning cigs should improve after 12Z but some moisture lingers and showers will redevelop Wednesday afternoon with surface winds from the W/NW. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0 CTB 43 30 54 36 / 40 10 0 10 HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0 BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0 WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0 DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 44 26 58 31 / 50 20 0 0 LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Cascade. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE MAIN IMPACTS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ARE ONGOING. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE KROW WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND THRU ABOUT SUNRISE. THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CONT DVD AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN MODEL PREDICTIONS SO WAS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT ON SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KAEG DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AND SHOWERS IMPACTING HIGH TERRAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SW TO NE WITHIN THE AREA FROM SILVER CITY TO ALBUQUERQUE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...940 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015... .UPDATE... WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE EC INTO THE NE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO OTHER CHANGES...CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS IN THE WEST BUT LATEST NAM12 AND HRRR INSIST SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015... .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE JET STREAM WILL DRAG ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COLLIDE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND CREATE ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS MULTI DAY PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 9000 FEET. GRADUAL DRIER AND WARMER TREND EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS/QPF ACROSS THE SE PLAINS DUE TO EXPECTED BANDED PRECIPITATION THERE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND FORECAST MODELS SUPPORT THIS THOUGHT. DESPITE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT. PERHAPS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NE PLAINS/HIGHLANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE AIRMASS SHOULD MODIFY ENOUGH TO LIMIT MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT CUT OFF LOW OVER MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT WED AFTERNOON AND FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE MTN AREAS INCLUDING THE WC/SW AND NC MTNS WEDNESDAY. DECREASED THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING WED AFTERNOON DUE TO DOWNSLOPE IMPACTS. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY WITH LASTING IMPACTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN LIFT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST COMBINE WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS SHOWS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVERALL. THUS IMPACT TO TRAVELERS WILL BE LESS. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 9000 FEET BUT THOSE ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES DURING A 48 HOUR SPAN. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND BUT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT SOME MORE ORGANIZED WIND/STRONGER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH UP MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO CATRON COUNTY AND THE GILA NF/WILDERNESS. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS LIGHT OT MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL START TO WORK INTO NORTHWEST NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIMITING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE. MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH EACH ANOTHER WITH REGARD TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WHILE ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE-DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR MARCH. THE PHASING TROUGHS FILL/WEAKEN OVERHEAD FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ADJACENT EASTERLY FOOTHILLS/HIGHLANDS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NM WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATING IN FROM THE WEST. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
346 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ALOFT...WNW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE TYPICAL THAN THE FRONTALLY-INFLUENCED SITUATION YESTERDAY...THOUGH HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. RAW MODEL TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RANGE ACROSS THE 40S FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA...HIGHER THAN MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS...BUT LOWER THAN RAW TEMPS FROM RECENT RAP RUNS. THOUGH FILTERED BY CLOUDS...THE SUN WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING OF THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 875MB TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED...INITIALLY ORIGINATING FROM A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO...WHICH WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT SHUNTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. WITH SOLID WNW FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM (NORTH OF THE WAVE)...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEW GRIDS INCLUDE A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...FOCUSED ONLY ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS...PIVOTING THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADJUST...FOCUSING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTORY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET (AND THUS THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RESPONSE) SEEMS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE HIGHER END CWA-WIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE GENERALLY-SOUTH-OF-INTERSTATE-71 AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE REGION (AND FORCING THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG)...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYTHING WORTHY OF CONCERN. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE GETTING TIGHTER. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW)...WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WET SNOW...AT MOST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS THE POSITION OF A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS BOTH SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL END UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NEUTRAL-TO-WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ON ITS OWN WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FLOW COOLER. THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FAIRLY WELL ON FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S (PERHAPS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST). AN EVEN GREATER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS BRIEF WARMING WILL COME TO A QUICK END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY ON SATURDAY EVENING...USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THICKEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate. A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain. However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth of an inch of additional rainfall today. Huber .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night through Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture flux convergence and weak instability will develop. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning, with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas late Thursday night into Friday. With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold front. The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early next week. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 55 76 52 60 / 30 10 20 50 40 San Angelo 70 55 80 55 61 / 30 10 20 40 50 Junction 71 57 78 59 65 / 50 10 20 40 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN-SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE RAIN- SHOWERS AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AROUND 12Z/14Z TIME FRAME ACROSS AREA SITES...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THAT OUT FROM TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ AVIATION... AT THIS HOUR A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM BURNET (BMQ) TO NEW BRAUNFELS (BAZ) TO PLEASANTON (PEZ). WHEN THIS LINE WENT THROUGH SAN ANTONIO NEITHER AIRPORT REPORTED PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS REPORTED AROUND THE CITY. THIS LINE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED -DZ FOR A FEW HOURS AT AUS. VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WITH ONLY FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH OVERCAST DECK WHILE DRT HAS BEEN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 06Z WE EXPECT IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN COMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION SOME LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE I-35 TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED -RA AND TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VISBY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY 16Z TOMORROW...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND CIGS RISING TO VFR BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. TREADWAY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD NEXT 24 HOURS THAT DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS FROM LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WELL TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO ALLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS IS AIDING A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING LIGHT RAIN BAND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WHICH AS MITIGATED MUCH OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER RAP/NAM OUTPUT AND SOME EVIDENCE IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF STRONGER NE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAND EAST BUT AS IT DOES SO IT MAY OUTPACE THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS WITH HRRR NOW STARTING TO FALL INTO THAT CAMP. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK LOW-LVL INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER EAST AND THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN THE BAND UNTIL CONDITIONS COOL PAST SUNSET. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS DEPICT REGENERATING ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAP/NAM MASS FIELDS SHOW SUPPORTIVE LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT COUPLETS THAT FURTHER SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR...AN AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC COAST AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOCALIZED VORT MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. PER THE GFS...H3 AND H5 WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS 100 KT AND NEAR 50-60 KTS RESPECTIVELY COINCIDENTALLY WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH PWATS 1.3-1.5"...SOME RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN HIGHER TOTALS AND SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS. HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER LIFT MOVES EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INITIALLY THURSDAY BUT MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MID-DAY FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SW SOUTHERN BRANCH EMBEDDED H5 IMPULSES PROMOTING MID AND DEEP LAYER LIFT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.3-1.7"...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ANOTHER LATITUDINALLY DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY...FURTHER TEMPORALY EXTENDING THE ASCENT AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT HWO. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EC ATTEMPTING TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH GFS HAVING IT WELL NORTH GIVEN BIG DIFFERENCES ON NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING STRENGTH. MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY WILL BE NEEDED BEOFRE FALLING IN LINE WITH A PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND WENT WITH A LONG TERM BLEND. /ALLEN/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 61 77 61 69 / 70 20 20 30 70 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 61 76 61 70 / 70 20 20 20 70 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 62 77 61 70 / 60 20 20 20 60 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 59 76 59 66 / 60 20 20 40 80 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 62 81 63 70 / 20 10 10 30 80 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 61 76 60 67 / 70 20 20 40 70 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 62 79 62 71 / 50 10 10 20 70 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 62 76 61 70 / 60 20 20 20 60 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 63 76 62 72 / 60 20 20 20 60 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 63 77 62 71 / 60 20 10 20 70 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 63 78 62 72 / 50 20 10 20 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF WEST TEXAS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE SOUTHWEST OF WACO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES 08-09Z. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED WE WILL HOLD OFF INDICATING ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME OF TS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WITH A WEAK FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE DALLAS AREA...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE METROPLEX WITH LIGHT SOUTH AT KACT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. 30 && .UPDATE... HAVE JUST DONE A QUICK UPDATE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWNWARD AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...WITH 30-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AND ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS TO THE EAST. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/ THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA REGION THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RAP OUT TO 18 HOURS IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE REGION SAW MORE SUNSHINE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 80 IN MANY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO BONHAM AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW. WITHOUT TAKING A PEEK AT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST GOING DOWN THE HEAVY RAINFALL RAINFALL CHECKLIST...ALL INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A SLOW MOVING FRONT...STRONG LIFT...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CURIOUSLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RAINFALL PROSPECTS...COMING IN DRIER AND SHOWING JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES...BUT 20 YEARS AGO THIS SETUP PROBABLY WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST BASED ON THE ANALYSIS DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHAT I GATHER FROM THE UNANIMOUSLY DRIER MODEL DATA IS THAT BECAUSE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING UP FROM AN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHERLY TRACK IT IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF REALLY DRY AIR OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE DRY SLOT TRACKS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BANDS. AM STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALTOGETHER. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF I-35...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LIFT WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST AND DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BAND WILL SET UP NEAR A FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS BAND MORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE IT AFFECTING JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE. A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN AND WEAK FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED LIFT SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS LOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC LIFT RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA WHEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO INTENSIFY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE AXIS OF RAIN. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY THESE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF I-20. RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTH TO 1 INCH SOUTH. PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS RAINY SUNDAY FORECAST IS VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 58 68 61 72 58 / 60 60 20 20 60 WACO, TX 60 71 62 76 60 / 70 70 20 20 50 PARIS, TX 55 61 57 67 55 / 50 80 30 20 50 DENTON, TX 55 67 59 73 55 / 60 60 20 20 60 MCKINNEY, TX 56 66 58 71 56 / 60 70 20 20 60 DALLAS, TX 59 69 61 73 59 / 60 70 20 20 60 TERRELL, TX 60 70 61 73 59 / 50 80 20 20 50 CORSICANA, TX 61 70 60 74 61 / 50 80 30 20 50 TEMPLE, TX 61 71 62 75 61 / 70 70 20 20 40 MINERAL WELLS, TX 53 67 59 75 56 / 60 50 10 20 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 30/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Weak cold front extended from south of San Angelo to north of Brady at 1130 PM. Light to moderate showers continued over West Central Texas, as an upper low centered in the Big Bend moved northeast. IFR to MVFR ceiling are expected to continue overnight, rising at all MVFR early Wednesday afternoon. Numerous showers will decrease by daybreak, with only a few showers remaining from Junction to Brady midday. Ceilings should rise to VFR late afternoon as the cold front dissipates and light southerly winds return. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ DISCUSSION... Have sent a quick update to the forecast for this evening to raise PoPs across the Concho Valley area where we are getting rain currently, and could possibly see some more showers, with an isolated thunderstorm or two as additional lift moves into the area with the main low moving into the area. 20 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR ceilings will likely fall to IFR this evening south of the I-20 corridor. A weak cold front just north of San Angelo will move slowly south and gradually dissipate along the I-10 corridor through Wednesday morning, returning as a warm front midday Wednesday. KABI CIGS will likely stay at MVFR overnight, being farther north of the cold front. There will likely be an increase in showers this evening with approach of an upper low, with the rain pushing east over all but KBBD and KJCT 12Z Wednesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this afternoon. Models are consistent with tracking this weakening system into West Central Texas tonight and then away from the area on Wednesday. Large area of mainly light rainfall continues across a large portion of the area this afternoon, producing rainfall totals of less than one tenth of an inch. Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in the deformation zone. HRRR shows a large area of convection redeveloping to the southwest, but not sure that`s going to happen with the extensive cloud cover that extends as far south as the Rio Grande. At this point, will assume some widespread rain for much of West Central Texas, with a relative lull with only scattered activity from San Angelo southwest into Ozona and Sonora. For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low itself or under the upper level dry slot. Best lift will exit the eastern counties from Brownwood to Junction during the morning hours. Thus, best PoPs to the east will dry conditions returning for most areas for the afternoon. May be hard pressed to get rid of cloud cover though and expect it to take much of the day before clouds break. LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Tuesday) The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday, sending a cold front south into the Big Country Thursday night, then through the rest of the area Friday. In the meantime, an upper level low will be located across Baja California, which is forecast to trek across Central Texas Saturday. Ahead of this feature, disturbances in the southwest flow aloft along with the aforementioned cold front will result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. High end chance PoPs were continued for much of West Central Texas Thursday night, with the better rain chances shifting to the southern half of the area on Friday. As previously mentioned, the upper level low across Baja California will open up and move across Central Texas on Saturday. The current forecast track of this system favors the heaviest precipitation across our southern counties and south into Central Texas. PoPs Friday night and Saturday will range from chance across the Big Country to likely across the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances will decrease Saturday evening as the upper level system moves east of the region. Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be above normal, generally in the upper 70s to near 80. The forecast cloud cover/precipitation on Friday/Saturday will result in high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect near normal temperatures for the first part of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. Models are indicating another upper level trough swinging across the Southern Plains early next week, possibly bringing a chance of rain to the eastern half of West Central Texas. For now, PoPs were left out of the forecast and will continue to monitor on future trends. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 49 67 53 76 52 / 70 30 10 20 50 San Angelo 51 70 55 80 55 / 80 20 10 20 50 Junction 53 71 58 80 59 / 80 40 10 20 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
331 AM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FAIR AND A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... AN UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH XTRM SOCAL. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...MAINLY OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE TROUGH LOCATION. DUE TO RUN TO RUN IMPROVEMENTS AND HIRES CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS HRRR SFC BASED CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...HAVE BUMPED THE POPS AND QPF UP A BIT FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT...MODERATE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ALSO BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITH THE FOCUS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. WIDESPREAD QPF WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER STORMS COULD CERTAINLY DROP UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING QUITE WARM EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...WITH 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES NOTED AS MUCH AS +13 DEGREES SUCH AS AT PENDLETON AND OCEANSIDE. TEMPERATURES TODAY...THUS...WILL BE COOLER DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL END UP BEING GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK WHICH WERE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RELATIVELY WET WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH WITH RENEWED MARINE PUSHES EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS ON THE HORIZON FOR OUR REGION...UNFORTUNATELY. && .AVIATION... 180930Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT AND TOPS TO 3500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z. SCT- BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 2500-3500 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 10000 FT MSL THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA AFTER 18Z. VIS WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT IN THE INLAND VALLEYS WHERE CLOUDS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. MTNS/DESERTS...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20000 FEET LOWERING TO 10000 FT MSL THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WED...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH DESERT. TOPS IN TSRA COULD REACH 25000 FT MSL. VIS WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL VIS BELOW 5 MI IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... 235 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...BROTHERTON AVIATION/MARINE...SS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
854 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015 .UPDATE...SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA TODAY. NAM AND HRRR BOTH SHOWING MESO SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WIND CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS UPPER VALLEY. AIRMASS NORTH OF THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MULTIPLE HRRR AND NAM RUNS. CAPE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT LIFTEDS WEAKLY NEGATIVE WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES. HAVE NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BUT KEPT MENTIONABLE WX OVER HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS. HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO AREAS ALONG DIVIDE AND INTO CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY. COULD SEE WEAK CONVECTION SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS POCATELLO/SODA SPRINGS THIS EVENING PER NAM IF TREND CAN GET GOING. WILL LOOK FOR SOME AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY WITH FOLLOWING HRRR RUNS BEFORE NUDGING POPS FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE 00Z- 06Z TIME FRAME. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT THAT WILL GRAZE OUR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. ALSO...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS IN NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WYATT LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EACH MODEL WAS STICKING TO THE SAME RESPECTIVE STORY...BUT THAT CHANGED WITH THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IDEA OF THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY TRACKING FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING MUCH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DRY HAS BECOME THE FAVORITE. FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. LEFT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS...BUT FEEL THE TREND WILL BE DRIER. STILL LOOKING FOR A WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY BEFORE A STRONGER AND PROBABLY WETTER SYSTEM COMES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RS AVIATION...DRIER AIR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AGAIN TODAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH AND GUSTY. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
653 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015 UPDATE... The dense fog advisory has been expanded to include Toole and Liberty Counties based on observations. Blank && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the forecast area. mpj Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance. Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal temperatures. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0 CTB 43 30 54 36 / 60 10 0 10 HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0 BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0 WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0 DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 44 26 58 31 / 70 20 0 0 LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Liberty...Toole. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Aviation section updated .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday...Biggest challenge this morning is status of the Dense Fog Advisory in Cascade County as visibility at KGTF has increased over the last hour. However, latest RAP sounding data suggests that the potential for dense fog will likely continue as the airmass remains saturated and winds are calm. At this time I will continue the advisory and monitor conditions for the next few hours. Westerly surface winds should develop as pressure falls east of the divide which should begin to dry the airmass. Models also remain in pretty good agreement that the airmass will remain moist and unsettled for much of the day with scattered showers expected into the afternoon hours. Have removed mention of thunderstorms as models have backed off a bit on CAPE but would not be surprised to see a stray lightning strike over the higher terrain this afternoon. The upper level wave causing the unsettled conditions should move east of my forecast area overnight with cloud cover expected to break up and diminish as an upper level shortwave ridge builds over the Rockies. Warmer and dryer conditions are expected on Thursday and, by Friday, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 60S across most of the forecast area. mpj Friday night thru Wednesday...An upper level disturbance will be moving thru the region Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Expect scattered rain/snow showers to accompany this disturbance. It dries out for most of the day on Monday...but the next upper level trof begins to move into the region for Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of rain/snow will accompany this disturbance. Forecast models are a bit cooler by Tuesday...so there will be a better chance for snow with this system. For Wednesday...the upper level trof continues to linger over the region...resulting in a few scattered showers and near to slightly below normal temperatures. Brusda && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1130z. Areas of patchy dense fog continue to affect portions of North Central MT this morning. With light winds and near 100 percent humidity...the fog will be very slow to burn off. Expect scattered showers to redevelop this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves thru. Most showers should end by 03z Thursday. Expect mid/high level clouds over the region tonight. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 32 59 39 / 40 20 0 0 CTB 43 30 54 36 / 40 10 0 10 HLN 54 33 61 37 / 30 10 0 0 BZN 53 27 57 30 / 40 20 0 0 WEY 47 21 49 23 / 30 20 0 0 DLN 49 29 59 33 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 44 26 58 31 / 50 20 0 0 LWT 48 31 57 37 / 50 30 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY until Noon MDT today Cascade. && $$ weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 DID CUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF TO ONE INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE SNOW IS MELTING OR COMPACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WARMING GROUND. FOLLOWED THE 12 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH PROPAGATE THE BAND NORTH AND SLOWLY WEAKENING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 ONLY CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO SPREAD HIGHER...CATEGORICAL POPS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDED TO SOUTHEAST CWA. WEBCAMS AND OBS CONFIRMED SNOW ALONG THIS AREA WITH ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN WEST CENTRAL ND AND LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM BISMARCK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES WITH OTHER ELEMENTS...INCLUDING ACCUMULATIONS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TO WYOMING WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT AT THE BORDER OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WATFORD CITY AND DICKINSON...TO FORT YATES AND LINTON. HOWEVER...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS YET HAVE INDICATED LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAD EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THINK THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE INDICATIVE OF VIRGA AS THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM EVOLVES. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BE HINDERING ANY INITIAL UP-SLOPE FLOW DESPITE THE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST INCREASED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AXIS FROM WATFORD CITY TO LINTON. AS THIS UP-SLOPE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IT IS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY EVENING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...REACHING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TODAY THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD BEGIN FROM NEAR WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON TO FORT YATES/LINTON...AND LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEEPENS. INCREASED SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR NORTHWARD AND HELP PULL THE SATURATION BAND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ALL SNOW. ALL IN ALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM WILLISTON AND BEACH...TO MINOT AND BISMARCK/MANDAN...TO STEELE AND NAPOLEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SURROUNDING THIS AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED TIME FRAME STARTS OFF WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOCATED BETWEEN CUT OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE...LEAVING OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES PUSH HUDSON BAY EASTWARD ALLOWING WESTERN RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST AS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON A FAST MOVING LOW CROSSING THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MORE NOTABLY A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS TEMPS FROM HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE IS SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN QPF FORECAST BUT FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z MONDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM VARY FROM AROUND .2 TO .4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIP LINGERS INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KDIK AND KBIS THIS MORNING AS OF 15 UTC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH INTO THE KJMS AND KISN TERMINALS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AT KMOT AND KISN...AND POSSIBLY KDIK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JNS AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ALOFT...WNW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE TYPICAL THAN THE FRONTALLY-INFLUENCED SITUATION YESTERDAY...THOUGH HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. RAW MODEL TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RANGE ACROSS THE 40S FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA...HIGHER THAN MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS...BUT LOWER THAN RAW TEMPS FROM RECENT RAP RUNS. THOUGH FILTERED BY CLOUDS...THE SUN WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE...AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING OF THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH ABOUT 875MB TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED...INITIALLY ORIGINATING FROM A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO...WHICH WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AS IT SHUNTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. WITH SOLID WNW FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM (NORTH OF THE WAVE)...AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR THE ILN FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NEW GRIDS INCLUDE A TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...FOCUSED ONLY ON THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. THE SITUATION WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE PLAINS...PIVOTING THE OVERALL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE STREAM OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADJUST...FOCUSING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTORY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET (AND THUS THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION RESPONSE) SEEMS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE HIGHER END CWA-WIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE GENERALLY-SOUTH-OF-INTERSTATE-71 AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE REGION (AND FORCING THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG)...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYTHING WORTHY OF CONCERN. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE GETTING TIGHTER. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW)...WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WET SNOW...AT MOST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A CHALLENGE...AS THE POSITION OF A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GFS/ECMWF PLOTS BOTH SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL END UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NEUTRAL-TO-WARM WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ON ITS OWN WITH A HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FLOW COOLER. THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FAIRLY WELL ON FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER WELL INTO THE 50S (PERHAPS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST). AN EVEN GREATER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS BRIEF WARMING WILL COME TO A QUICK END. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY ON SATURDAY EVENING...USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SPRAWLING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THICKEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE KCVG/KLUK TOWARD MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .UPDATE... AN ARC OF SHOWERS DRIVEN LARGELY BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SO SOME SATURATION NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHES THE GROUND. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 18Z. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKIER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WHICH IS HELPING TO HEAT THE SURFACE MORE RAPIDLY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WARMING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING MEMPHIS. FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES. OTHER THAN THAT...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. TVT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OCCURING ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A NEARBY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AS BETTER FORCING ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE KEPT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK OVERALL WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CJC .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND A LIKELY RAPID DECREASE TO IFR TOWARD 06Z. 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LATER TRANSITION TO IFR COMPARED TO GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS...PREFER THE DELAYED NAM SOLUTION. IT MAY TAKE SOME TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IN THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Look for very challenging flight weather to continue today. Based on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is very ragged. Thus, conditions may swing from LIFR to MVFR and back again quickly. Expect VFR conditions to gradually return, progressing from north to south, later this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate. A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain. However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth of an inch of additional rainfall today. Huber LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night through Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture flux convergence and weak instability will develop. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning, with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas late Thursday night into Friday. With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold front. The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early next week. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 55 76 52 60 / 30 10 20 50 40 San Angelo 70 55 80 55 61 / 30 10 20 40 50 Junction 71 57 78 59 65 / 50 10 20 40 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
233 PM PDT WED MAR 18 2015 .UPDATE...MODIFIED POPS...WEATHER AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AROUND YOSEMITE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SJ VALLEY IN TULARE COUNTY INCLUDING AS FAR WEST AS VISALIA AND TULARE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA NEVADA MAINLY IN TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES AROUND WET MEADOWS AND UPPER BURNT CORRAL. STEERING FLOWS OF SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST AND COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OVER FOOTHILLS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...OR THRU AROUND SUNSET. && .PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS BEEN BRINGING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND OVER KERN COUNTY. BEHIND THE CLOUD SHIELD...OR MAINLY OVER FRESNO COUNTY AND TOWARDS MARIPOSA COUNTY...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED YET...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA IN TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. WILL STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THIS EVENING PER LATEST HRRR...OR HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...MODEL GUIDANCE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET...INCLUDING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT RIDGING TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...OR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DURING THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY IN THE SJ VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK DOWN...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TERMS OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...OR RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH BEGINS TO DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AROUND YOSEMITE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. FURTHER COOLING IS FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...WILL MENTION MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY...IN TERMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND NEXT WED...MODELS BRING A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE...OR DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS 19Z WED THRU 06Z THU OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 03-18 87:2004 50:1991 57:1910 32:1898 KFAT 03-19 86:1928 50:1894 58:1916 32:1898 KFAT 03-20 89:1960 52:1897 59:1896 33:1982 KBFL 03-18 92:2004 51:1919 58:2004 23:1900 KBFL 03-19 90:1928 49:1919 60:1934 31:1903 KBFL 03-20 93:2004 52:1919 59:1909 32:1935 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...BSO AVN/FW...JDB PREV DISCUSSION...BSO SYNOPSIS...BSO WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
356 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WITH A DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD TONIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY...DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY BRINGS MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 356 PM EDT...WITH COLD NW FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF STRAOTCU CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY TOWARDS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CNY...BUT THESE LOOK TO BE REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION. THE 18Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GOOD MIXING HAS TAKEN PLACE TODAY TO AROUND 680-700 HPA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR VERY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WINDS WON/T BE AS GUSTY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/ BUT IT WON/T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS IT WAS DURING DAYTIME MIXING. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL START TO RELAX...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BECOME NEARLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TOMORROW. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THANKS TO 850 HPA STILL IN THE -14 TO -17 DEGREES C RANGE. THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AGAIN IN THE AFTN HOURS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...BUT IT WON/T BE NEARLY AS GUSTY AS WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DECREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASS OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD START OFF CLEAR...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY MORNING...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT WILL BE PASSING A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. STILL...A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BETWEEN FRI AFTN AND LATE FRI EVENING...AS THE STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. IT MAY BE A SLIPPERY COMMUTE ON FRI EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...ALTHOUGH SNOW WON/T STICK QUITE AS WELL AS IT WOULD IN THE MID WINTER DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A COATING TO AN INCH FOR I-90 ON NORTHWARD....AROUND AN INCH FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...AND TWO TO THREE INCHES FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. DAYTIME TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. SNOW WILL TAPERING OFF ON FRI NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOWS ON FRI NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF ACTIVE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 20S. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION BUT IT WILL REMAIN COOL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUD DECK 8000 FEET AT THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF. INTO THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 3-6 KT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING TO 8 TO 13 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY-MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL GUSTS 35-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...THE GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER LOW. RH VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS CURRENT TIME. THE REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT THERE IS STILL ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN PLACE IN MOST HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE STARTING TO LOSE THE SNOW PACK...AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR VALLEY AREAS ACCORDING TO COOP OBSERVATIONS. UNTIL THE CURRENT SNOW PACK MELTS AND DRYING TAKES PLACE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE RATHER LOW ON THE LARGE SCALE...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN ALWAYS BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON. FIRE WEATHER USERS ARE URGED TO REQUEST A SPOT FORECAST IF NEEDED AT ANY TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...KEEPING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY ONLY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MELTING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED EACH DAY DUE TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS OF MELTING AND SUBLIMATION THAT OCCURS THANKS TO THE STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS TO DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DRY WEATHER MOVES BACK IN. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROT IN PLACE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COLD...AND LITTLE LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD ICE BREAKUP IS NOT EXPECTED...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A MINOR ICE JAM ON SMALLER STREAMS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW MELT OCCURRING...ANY LARGER POTENTIAL ISSUES ARE BEING DELAYED TO EITHER LATER THIS MONTH OR FOR SOMETIME IN APRIL...IF AT ALL. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS SHORT TERM...FRUGIS LONG TERM...11 AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A WINDY AND COLD AFTERNOON...THE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A RATHER FRIGID NIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER DRY...BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY...DAY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 120 PM EDT...BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NY/NE PA. THE 16Z HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND OF SNOW REMAINING WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING IT INTO THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY...WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU/STRATOCU IN PLACE. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE VERY STRONG WINDS. THANKS TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT /850 HPA TEMPS OF -14 TO -18 DEGREES C/...GOOD MIXING IS TAKING PLACE AND A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO PRESENT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE THIS FALLS JUST SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TREES BRANCHES DOWN...AS WELL AS BLOWN DEBRIS...SUCH AS LEFTOVER ROAD SAND/SALT...MAKING FOR A RATHER BLUSTERY AND WINTRY DAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...IT WON/T FEEL TOO GREAT OUT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES MAINLY IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS LABRADOR. THE SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD DRIFTS INTO THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES...AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS TO 10 TO 15F FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTED THE SRN DACKS...AND HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME ZERO TO 5 BELOW READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW OVER THE FCST AREA. THURSDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLING OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA. A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ON THU WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS TO L20S OVER THE MTNS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TRANQUIL AND COLD CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO RACE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BTWN 06Z-12Z. SOME MOISTURE FROM A SRN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AS A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SFC WAVE FRI PM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF/CAN GGEM/NAM AND SOME OF THE SREFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED WELL LATELY...BUT SINCE THIS TREND IS PERSISTENT WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR FRI PM AND CHC VALUES TO THE NORTH FOR SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE TO COOL DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION. THE GFS AND EVEN THE CAN GGEM DRIER WITH A SHARPER EDGE. AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...NW CT PRIOR TO 00Z/SAT. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. AFTER LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U20S TO 30S && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OUT TO SEA TO OUR SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ELSEWHERE. LATER AT NIGHT POPS DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. THE WEATHER SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS FORECAST A DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. SO EVEN THOUGH NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PCPN...SOME OR MUCH OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW...SO ONCE AGAIN ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A RELATIVELY MOIST NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S MOST AREAS...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE VERY COLD...BUT PCPN FREE. HAVE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH 15 TO 20 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO TO THE MID TEENS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ZERO TO AROUND 20 ABOVE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUD DECK 8000 FEET AT THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF. INTO THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 KT...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KPSF. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS AT 3-6 KT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING TO 8 TO 13 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN. SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING STORM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL GUSTS 35-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND BERKSHIRES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT...GUSTY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...THE GOOD DAYTIME MIXING AND ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER LOW. RH VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS CURRENT TIME. THE REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT THERE IS STILL ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN PLACE IN MOST HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE SOME VALLEY AREAS ARE STARTING TO LOSE THE SNOW PACK...AS MUCH AS 9 INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL IN PLACE FOR VALLEY AREAS ACCORDING TO COOP OBSERVATIONS. UNTIL THE CURRENT SNOW PACK MELTS AND DRYING TAKES PLACE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE RATHER LOW ON THE LARGE SCALE...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN ALWAYS BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON. FIRE WEATHER USERS ARE URGED TO REQUEST A SPOT FORECAST IF NEEDED AT ANY TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...KEEPING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AT A MINIMUM FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY ONLY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY REACH BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...MELTING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THE SNOW AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED EACH DAY DUE TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS OF MELTING AND SUBLIMATION THAT OCCURS THANKS TO THE STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE. IT LOOKS TO DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT...BEFORE DRY WEATHER MOVES BACK IN. ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. RIVERS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROT IN PLACE. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE COLD...AND LITTLE LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WIDESPREAD ICE BREAKUP IS NOT EXPECTED...AND SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A MINOR ICE JAM ON SMALLER STREAMS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW MELT OCCURRING...ANY LARGER POTENTIAL ISSUES ARE BEING DELAYED TO EITHER LATER THIS MONTH OR FOR SOMETIME IN APRIL...IF AT ALL. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS/WASULA SHORT TERM...WASULA LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
107 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ZONES HAS BEEN MOSTLY DISSIPATING WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. MEANWHILE LOW CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISING WITH ALL LOCATIONS OTHER THAN KBPT NOW IN THE VFR CATEGORY NOW...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THUS IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOCAL HRRR SHOWING DENSE FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE SERN SITES...WHILE MOS IS ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE SWRN SITES. HAVE KIND OF GONE DOWN THE MIDDLE EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF KBPT WHERE PERSISTENCE DICTATES A BETTER SHOT AT LOW VISIBILITIES TOMORROW MORNING. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LAKES REGION...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS ACADIANA THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED QPF AND POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENTS. TWH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ UPDATE... AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS MIXING OUT THIS MORNING AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SABINE LAKE...CALCASIEU LAKE AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ AVIATION... RAINS ARE COMING IN FROM THE WEST WITH AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THE VSBY ABV ONE MILE... ALL THOUGH ARA WILL REMAIN LIFR W/ VSBY AT 1/2 MILE AND VV002 TO HOLD THROUGH ABOUT 15 TO 16Z. OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR EXPECTED AT THE REST OF THE TAF LCTNS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ DISCUSSION... WX MAP SHOWS AREAS OF FOG SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX & S LA THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING 0-20 NM COASTAL ZONES...LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS ABOVE MENTIONED SE TX/S LA. A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SHRA INCREASING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH AREAL RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH NO FRONT OR COOLER AIR EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS THU...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMUM. BY FRI...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SAGGING SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA...AND LIKELY TO BE PROLONGED WELL INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE END OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED BY SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROF KICKS NE OF THE REGION. WEAK CAA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL COOL TEMPS OFF ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR MON AND TUE...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. DML MARINE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS THIS WEEK. PATCHY DENSE MARINE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAINING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 74 62 76 63 77 / 40 20 20 10 50 KBPT 73 62 75 63 76 / 50 20 20 10 40 KAEX 73 60 77 61 78 / 60 20 20 10 60 KLFT 78 63 79 63 80 / 40 20 20 10 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Light rain continues to work its way east from central and southeast Missouri due to isentropic ascent of a very moist airmass from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. This eastward push of the precip should persist into the evening, but very dry low level air locked over the lower Ohio Valley may cause the coverage and intensity of the rainfall to be somewhat less over our far eastern counties. Hi-res solutions are in good agreement that, with time, the light rain will set up in a west to east axis near or perhaps just north of the I-70 corridor where even weaker but persistent WAA will linger into the predawn hours, with PoPs tapering off to the north and south of this axis. Over far northern sections of the CWA, the lack of lift and residually dry air will likely produce a very sharp northern edge to the rainfall...with areas near the MO/IA border possibly remaining dry while rain will be likely for areas along and south of Highway 36. Forecasts attempt to reflect this very tight PoP gradient. Truett .LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 The shortwave currently over Montana will dip across the northern-central Plains Thursday forcing some weak low level cyclogenesis over the lower Missouri Valley. All model guidance shifts the flow from around 950mb through 800mb around to the south ahead of the shortwave. Resulting warm advection and moisture convergence force precip across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois, with operational models spitting out as much as 0.25 inch or more in those areas. This may be overbaked just a bit, but rain seems like a good bet during the afternoon...especially since pretty much every model is telling the same story. Have therefore increased PoPs to categorical for northern zones, fading to likely and then high chance toward the I-70 corridor and further south. Low level flow will turn to the northwest in the wake of the shortwave Thursday night. Should see rain diminish as the forcing shifts east of the area. West northwest flow aloft will prevail from Friday into early next week. This will bring a series of weak shortwaves through the area, the most impressive of which will go through Monday. This wave still looks to produce some light precipitation, and it looks cold enough that precip type will be questionable. Have therefore continued the rain/snow at this time, and allowed the surface temperatures to dictate the precip type in the forecast. The next potential for rain will be out at the end of the forecast on Wednesday as a deeper trof moves across the country. If we can heat up enough ahead of the trof, there might be enough instability for thunderstorms. As this is still 7 days out, have left mention of storms out for now. Temperatures look to be a bit of a roller coaster ride through the forecast period as the northwest flow dominates. After a damp cool day on Thursday, temps should warm up above normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back down normal and below Sunday and Monday, and then rise back above normal Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Carney && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Leading edge of the rain covering the southwest third of MO just now moving in KCOU vicinity and will continue to spread east during the afternoon. Although the low level dry air along and east of the Mississippi River will cause the eastward progression to be slow, it still appears some light precip will arrive in the STL metro during the mid-late afternoon hours. This rain will likely persist along the I-70 corridor into the evening hours before diminishing sometime after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate low levels saturating over KCOU as the evening progresses, and even though the rain should diminish have taken cigs into MVFR cat, with vsbys also dropping into MVFR range in fog. However, relatively drier easterly low level flow may retard this lower cloud development in the STL metro. Right now it appears that the KUIN area may be on the northern fringes of the rainfall as well as the deeper low level moisture. Because of this have maintained a dry forecast for this area, and only gradually lowered ceilings to low end VFR by Thursday morning. Specifics for KSTL: Rain should continue to slowly work eastward this afternoon. Extrapolation of the leading edge of the wet weather suggests rain moving into the metro area between 21-23z, with light rain then persisting throughout the evening before tapering off after 06z. Lastest RUC data as well as 12z NAM soundings suggest that persistent easterly low level flow will maintain advection of relatively dry low level air. As a result, have maintained VFR cigs/vsbys until just around daybreak Thursday. Truett && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 38 51 40 62 / 80 60 40 10 Quincy 36 45 34 58 / 40 80 40 5 Columbia 36 46 36 62 / 80 60 30 5 Jefferson City 37 47 36 63 / 80 60 30 10 Salem 38 51 41 58 / 60 60 50 10 Farmington 37 50 38 60 / 80 50 40 10 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 1152 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Going forecast trends still looking pretty good. Only change...albeit minor...was at attempt to tighten the PoP gradient across our far north this afternoon and this evening, as it appears that measurable precip will struggle to reach our far northern counties. Truett && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Moisture continues to slowly lift northward towards Missouri early this morning, so backed off on onset of precipitation for our area just a bit, with best chances from midday onward, for areas along and south of I-70. With the light rain and cloud cover, highs will struggle to rise much today, kept coolest temps over central and southern Missouri with warmest temps over northeast MO/west central IL. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 (Tonight - Friday) Cool, stratiform rain to persist over region through Thursday before tapering off Thursday night. In the meantime, little diurnal range for temps due to the cloud cover and light rain. Still expect lows near normal and highs about 10 degrees below normal on Thursday. With dry conditions on Friday, temperatures to begin a rebound into the upper 50s to mid 60s. (Saturday - Tuesday) A weak cold front will slide south through forecast area late in the day on Saturday. But frontal passage is late enough that highs on Saturday will be above normal with the warmest temps along Missouri River basin, near 70 degrees. May need to raise temps a bit more with future updates if frontal passage slows down anymore. Beyond that, extended models try to bring some scattered light rain to the region but have timing differences for Sunday night through Tuesday, so kept slight chance mention for portions of the forecast area. As for temps through the period, they will be a bit below normal for this time of year. Byrd && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 Leading edge of the rain covering the southwest third of MO just now moving in KCOU vicinity and will continue to spread east during the afternoon. Although the low level dry air along and east of the Mississippi River will cause the eastward progression to be slow, it still appears some light precip will arrive in the STL metro during the mid-late afternoon hours. This rain will likely persist along the I-70 corridor into the evening hours before diminishing sometime after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate low levels saturating over KCOU as the evening progresses, and even though the rain should diminish have taken cigs into MVFR cat, with vsbys also dropping into MVFR range in fog. However, relatively drier easterly low level flow may retard this lower cloud development in the STL metro. Right now it appears that the KUIN area may be on the northern fringes of the rainfall as well as the deeper low level moisture. Because of this have maintained a dry forecast for this area, and only gradually lowered ceilings to low end VFR by Thursday morning. Specifics for KSTL: Rain should continue to slowly work eastward this afternoon. Extrapolation of the leading edge of the wet weather suggests rain moving into the metro area between 21-23z, with light rain then persisting throughout the evening before tapering off after 06z. Lastest RUC data as well as 12z NAM soundings suggest that persistent easterly low level flow will maintain advection of relatively dry low level air. As a result, have maintained VFR cigs/vsbys until just around daybreak Thursday. Truett && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
300 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SNOW IS ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD. AREAS WITH SNOW HAVE SEEN MODEST WARMING DURING THE DAY WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS SNOW...THOUGH WET SNOW. AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE CLEARING AND WARMING. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WET SNOW AND SOME THAWING/EVAPORATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG THURSDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR RH PICTURE FOR PATCHY FOG FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE SHOULD GIVE HIGHS NEAR 50 AND WILL SERVE TO MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FELL TODAY. AREAS WHERE SNOW DOES NOT MELT COULD SEE HIGHS QUITE A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT EXPECT THE WET SNOW TO MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY. LARGE SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY EVENING AS A LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN SEVERAL MODELS AFFECTING THE AREA. MARTIN .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE PERIOD BEGINS INITIALLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND A STACKED ARCTIC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM KNOCKED DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALIGNED NW TO SE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN BY SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DIVIDE EJECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. CONTINUED USING THE POT TOOL TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE RANGE FOR A WINTRY MIX. WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE WEEKEND WILL BE WET AND COOL. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ADDED TO THE MIX OF WEATHER ALSO FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND TUESDAY STILL HAS TIMING AND GEOGRAPHICAL ISSUES. SO WILL NOT MADE ANY EDITS THERE. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC COLD AIR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK FROM THIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE DAKOTAS...AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND JUTS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COOL PACIFIC TROUGH BUTTS UP AGAINST THIS RIDGE AT THE SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE DIMINISHING AS THE PCNW TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION JUMP DURING THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT MODERATED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTER-MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL REBOUND/AMPLIFY AND MOVE ACROSS MONTANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE UP BRIEFLY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRY. TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF AT THIS POINT BUT THE ENSEMBLES BROADLY SUGGEST THAT A SECOND SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE STAND AT THE TOP OF THE TROUGH AND MOST OF THE LIFT ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH... BUT THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. SO...POPS ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER CLIMO DURING THIS TIME. GAH && .AVIATION... EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY/TONIGHT: LIFR/IFR...MVFR/VFR A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT WET SNOW WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY STRETCH INTO THE EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY TAPERS OFF BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BEFORE MORNING. MODELS DO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FG OR BR FOR TONIGHT... MAINLY FOR KGGW AND KOLF. THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND ELSEWHERE. EXPECT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 7 TO 15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KT ON THURSDAY. SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
229 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI... FORECAST AREA WILL BE HEADED INTO A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR MAINLY S OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS ROTATING INTO THE AREA AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS HAD ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAD BECOME WNW AND GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING. SOME CAPE WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING PER SREF PLUMES AND RAP SOUNDINGS. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE COMPETING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO LOWERED POPS OVER THE PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR OVER PARTS OF THE NE ZONES WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CREATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. KEPT SOME LINGERING POPS OVER THE KBHK AREA THU MORNING...OTHERWISE WENT DRY FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. GOOD MIXING ON THU WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...AND PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOWED A COLD FRONT BACKDOORING INTO THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE AROUND +12 DEGREES C...SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS COULD BE JEOPARDIZED IF THE FRONT PUSHES IT/S WAY FURTHER INTO THE AREA THAN EXPECTED. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI NIGHT PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS AGREED ON KEEPING THE QPF OUT OF THE REGION FOR NOW...BUT THE GFS HAD IT CLOSE TO KBHK. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER REASON TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESS OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT. ARTHUR .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AGAIN...WITH MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH A REGULAR SUCCESSION OF RIDGING AND TROFFING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE FIRST PACIFIC FRONT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PREFRONTAL WARMING. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN ZONES. CURRENT MODELS SHIFT MOST OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE KEPT INHERITED SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME...AS THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. RIDGING BUILDS BACK AGAIN FOR MONDAY...RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A LARGER TROF BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND APPEARS TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID RAISE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...SO HAVE TRENDED TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER. AAG && .AVIATION... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 037/062 040/067 037/064 037/056 031/060 041/051 028/043 20/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 12/W 22/W LVM 034/059 039/066 039/065 036/053 030/059 038/046 025/044 20/U 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/B 33/W 32/W HDN 032/063 035/069 034/067 034/058 028/062 037/052 028/046 30/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 22/W MLS 032/058 036/063 033/059 029/052 024/054 031/050 030/043 30/B 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 12/W 22/W 4BQ 032/059 034/067 034/063 030/053 027/056 034/050 029/044 20/B 00/B 00/B 23/W 21/B 12/W 22/W BHK 028/052 032/058 027/049 026/043 021/048 032/050 028/041 22/J 00/B 11/B 23/W 21/B 13/W 22/W SHR 033/057 032/066 035/067 035/055 028/057 036/049 027/042 20/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 32/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
1023 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF CONTINUED SNOW COVER. EXTENDED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BUDGED MUCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REMOVED PETROLEUM COUNTY AS THAT AREA HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHER AREAS ARE STILL AROUND 31 DEGREES WITH WET SNOW THAT IS IMPACTING DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. DESPITE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SREF KEEPS SNOW GOING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS DOES THE HRRR AND SSEO. WITH SLOW WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER UNDER PRECIP. CONDITIONS...FOLLOWED THE HIRES MODELS IN EXTENDING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AS WELL IN TAPERING THE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT THIS EVENING. MARTIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH PRECIPITATIONS SPREADING ACROSS AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...AND A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CWA...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ICING IS POSSIBLE SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR THE CURRENT AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE. WAVE MOVING EAST WILL PUSH THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS ON THURSDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. EBERT .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SYNOPTIC SET UP...LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN ARCTIC COLD AIR LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE HUDSON BAY. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK FROM THIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE DAKOTAS...AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND JUTS UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COOL PACIFIC TROUGH BUTTS UP AGAINST THIS RIDGE AT THE SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST WITH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE DIMINISHING AS THE PCNW TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION JUMP DURING THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES ARE KEPT MODERATED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTER-MOUNTAIN RIDGE WILL REBOUND/AMPLIFY AND MOVE ACROSS MONTANA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE UP BRIEFLY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN DRY. TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP OFF AT THIS POINT BUT THE ENSEMBLES BROADLY SUGGEST THAT A SECOND SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE STAND AT THE TOP OF THE TROUGH AND MOST OF THE LIFT ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL SOUTH... BUT THIS COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. SO...POPS ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER CLIMO DURING THIS TIME. GAH && .AVIATION... EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY: LIFR...IFR...MVFR...VFR A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TODAY...INITIALLY PRODUCING WET SNOW...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AS TEMPERATURES RISE TODAY THE SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING AND THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES OF 1SM TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH MOST SNOW BANDS. BUT WITH SOME BANDS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4SM ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 7 TO 15 KTS THROUGH NOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KT ON THURSDAY. SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY... DAWSON...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PRAIRIE... RICHLAND...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WIBAUX. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THIS SAME UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY...WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS FROM CATRON AND WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CIBOLA AND SOUTHEAST MCKINLEY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS BAND WILL MAKE THE TRIP DOWNWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 18Z NAM12 AND 18Z HRRR MODELS INDICATING THAT THIS LINE...IN FACT...WILL MAKE IT INTO THE RGV AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMP OF 66F AT THE ABQ SUNPORT AND THE 40F DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE...SUSPECT THAT THESE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ON TO SOMETHING. WAVE/SPEED MAX MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WILL ALSO FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS IN. NORTHERN STREAM SHORT- WAVE TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM THURSDAY. GOOD LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY...ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM 100KT SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SE NM AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN TACT AND PASSES EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF NM WHILE THE NRN STREAM TROUGH SHEARS APART AND FILLS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON SATURDAY...WEST COAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST AND FOLD OVER AND THE RESULTING HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LIMIT SHOWERS CHANCES SATURDAY AND ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AGREE THAT A DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO THROUGH COLORADO AND CLIPPING THE NE AROUND MIDWEEK. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS OVER THE AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND TAKING PWATS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MARCH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FURTHER DRYING FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKES SOUTHWEST PROGRESS. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RESULTING MOS ARE WETTER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT COINCIDING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE AREA AND PHASING WITH THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT AN UPTICK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL. A LAST ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW...CONTINUED DRYING WITH INCREASING HAINES...MIXING AND VENT RATES. POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE UPTREND TUESDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE PRECEDING LEE SIDE TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY DEEP AT 1001MB. MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MON/TUE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. 11 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A MIXED-BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT KGUP. IFR CONDITIONS AT KROW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT COVERAGE OF HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTION TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 41 65 38 60 / 20 50 40 20 DULCE........................... 33 61 31 56 / 70 60 80 40 CUBA............................ 36 58 33 54 / 70 70 70 40 GALLUP.......................... 38 56 32 58 / 30 60 40 30 EL MORRO........................ 36 51 31 51 / 60 80 90 50 GRANTS.......................... 35 54 31 54 / 50 70 80 40 QUEMADO......................... 39 51 34 53 / 50 70 70 50 GLENWOOD........................ 43 64 40 65 / 30 50 50 40 CHAMA........................... 31 55 28 52 / 80 70 90 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 55 37 50 / 50 70 100 30 PECOS........................... 39 55 33 49 / 40 70 90 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 56 28 54 / 50 80 90 30 RED RIVER....................... 30 48 24 46 / 100 80 100 50 ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 49 25 45 / 80 80 90 50 TAOS............................ 35 57 30 54 / 50 70 80 20 MORA............................ 37 55 30 48 / 50 80 100 40 ESPANOLA........................ 39 63 37 56 / 30 60 70 20 SANTA FE........................ 39 55 35 51 / 50 60 90 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 61 35 55 / 40 60 90 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 60 40 57 / 50 60 90 30 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 62 42 59 / 40 60 80 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 64 41 61 / 30 60 70 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 63 41 60 / 40 60 80 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 42 63 40 62 / 50 60 80 20 RIO RANCHO...................... 45 63 41 59 / 40 60 80 20 SOCORRO......................... 45 61 41 63 / 50 60 70 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 56 34 53 / 50 80 100 40 TIJERAS......................... 39 58 35 55 / 50 70 90 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 59 34 56 / 30 80 90 40 CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 56 32 52 / 30 90 100 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 56 35 54 / 30 70 90 50 CARRIZOZO....................... 43 61 38 60 / 20 40 60 50 RUIDOSO......................... 39 59 33 56 / 30 40 80 50 CAPULIN......................... 38 49 31 54 / 60 70 80 20 RATON........................... 39 54 32 57 / 80 70 90 30 SPRINGER........................ 39 57 32 56 / 60 70 90 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 37 55 29 50 / 30 80 90 30 CLAYTON......................... 42 56 38 62 / 50 50 50 10 ROY............................. 41 58 34 56 / 30 50 80 20 CONCHAS......................... 45 62 39 61 / 20 50 70 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 46 62 38 58 / 20 60 70 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 44 63 38 64 / 20 50 60 10 CLOVIS.......................... 44 65 38 59 / 10 50 60 10 PORTALES........................ 45 65 39 59 / 10 50 50 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 46 65 41 59 / 10 50 70 10 ROSWELL......................... 48 71 45 61 / 5 30 40 20 PICACHO......................... 45 66 39 54 / 10 40 60 40 ELK............................. 43 60 37 52 / 10 30 60 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
343 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SNOWFALL AND FOG THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF 20 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM WATFORD CITY THROUGH JAMESTOWN. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN...BECOMING CENTERED ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AS DEPICTED BY THE 17-19 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE VERY LOW SNOW RATIOS THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH STRATUS BUILD DOWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT IN THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE HUDSON BAY LOW SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR A MORE ENERGETIC/MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ONE LAST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PUSH A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH ALL MODELS DEPICTING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA. COULD BE AROUND ONE INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. POPS TAPER OFF TO BELOW MEASURABLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHIFTING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC QUICKLY MOVE TOWARD NORTH DAKOTA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN MOSTLY AFFECTING NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TWO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL NEED MONITORING. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NEGATIVELY TILTED...SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF LIQUID...OR POSSIBLY 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER SOUTHWEST FOR SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX...SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA RESULTING IN COLDER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LOW WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRY SLOT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH REGARDS TO QPF THAN THE GFS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 AS OF 2030 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISN TO KJMS. SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KJMS/KMOT AS THIS BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KISN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACCOUNTING FOR ADDITIONAL REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...RISING TO VFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THURSDAY...CRESTING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...AYD HYDROLOGY...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE 15 THROUGH 17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS IN LINE WITH RADAR TRENDS DEPICTING THE BAND OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN...PROPAGATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 DID CUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF TO ONE INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MUCH OF THE SNOW IS MELTING OR COMPACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WARMING GROUND. FOLLOWED THE 12 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR AND 12 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH PROPAGATE THE BAND NORTH AND SLOWLY WEAKENING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 ONLY CHANGES WITH UPDATE WERE TO SPREAD HIGHER...CATEGORICAL POPS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDED TO SOUTHEAST CWA. WEBCAMS AND OBS CONFIRMED SNOW ALONG THIS AREA WITH ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN WEST CENTRAL ND AND LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES OCCURRING FROM BISMARCK TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES WITH OTHER ELEMENTS...INCLUDING ACCUMULATIONS WHICH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3 INCHES TOTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TO WYOMING WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT AT THE BORDER OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA. LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WATFORD CITY AND DICKINSON...TO FORT YATES AND LINTON. HOWEVER...NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS YET HAVE INDICATED LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. HAD EARLIER SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW FOR A SHORT TIME IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THINK THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE INDICATIVE OF VIRGA AS THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM EVOLVES. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BE HINDERING ANY INITIAL UP-SLOPE FLOW DESPITE THE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST INCREASED DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST AXIS FROM WATFORD CITY TO LINTON. AS THIS UP-SLOPE DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS DURING THE MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. IT IS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY EVENING...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW REACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...REACHING EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TODAY THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD BEGIN FROM NEAR WILLISTON AND WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON TO FORT YATES/LINTON...AND LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DEEPENS. INCREASED SOUTHERLY H850 WINDS WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR NORTHWARD AND HELP PULL THE SATURATION BAND NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS ALL SNOW...THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION BAND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ALL SNOW. ALL IN ALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM WILLISTON AND BEACH...TO MINOT AND BISMARCK/MANDAN...TO STEELE AND NAPOLEON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SURROUNDING THIS AREA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED TIME FRAME STARTS OFF WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOCATED BETWEEN CUT OFF HUDSON BAY LOW AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE...LEAVING OUR REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES PUSH HUDSON BAY EASTWARD ALLOWING WESTERN RIDGE TO PROGRESS EAST AS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON A FAST MOVING LOW CROSSING THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND MORE NOTABLY A SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. CURRENT FORECAST DROPS TEMPS FROM HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE IS SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN QPF FORECAST BUT FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z MONDAY...LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM VARY FROM AROUND .2 TO .4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIP LINGERS INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISN TO THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR ELLENDALE. SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KISN/KJMS/KMOT AS THIS BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KISN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACCOUNTING FOR ADDITIONAL REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...RISING TO VFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JNS AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ UPDATE... AN ARC OF SHOWERS DRIVEN LARGELY BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE SO SOME SATURATION NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHES THE GROUND. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 18Z. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKIER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WHICH IS HELPING TO HEAT THE SURFACE MORE RAPIDLY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS TREND WITH THE HRRR SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WARMING WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING MEMPHIS. FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES. OTHER THAN THAT...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. TVT && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OCCURING ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A NEARBY SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AS BETTER FORCING ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE KEPT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK OVERALL WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RETURN OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CJC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS VFR INITIALLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BETTER RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP. BELIEVE CIGS WILL BE LOWER DURING FEDEX DEPARTURE THAN THE ARRIVAL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED AT TUP. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS AT JBR. JAB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ IFR and MVFR ceilings persist across most of West Central Texas early this afternoon. There will be some improvement during the afternoon, lifting to MVFR and low end VFR conditions, but it will be slow to occur. Models suggest that the lowest ceilings will return overnight for most locations, returning to IFR across most terminals by sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Look for very challenging flight weather to continue today. Based on observations, over the last 6 hours, the lowest stratus deck is very ragged. Thus, conditions may swing from LIFR to MVFR and back again quickly. Expect VFR conditions to gradually return, progressing from north to south, later this afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2015/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) As an upper level disturbance slowly moves across Texas today, rain showers will continue across West Central Texas. The latest water vapor loop indicates the center of this disturbance is just now exiting the Big Bend region. The NAM brings the center of this disturbance to near Wichita Falls by noon. The NAM and HRRR shift the main precipitation area to our southeastern counties by this afternoon. That`s where the higher rainfall amounts will accumulate. A few showers may linger across our Northwest Hill Country counties this evening. Otherwise, the rain will end for most of West Central Texas by sunset today. Some locations across our southeastern counties may receive an additional one quarter inch of rain. However, most of West Central Texas will receive less than a tenth of an inch of additional rainfall today. Huber LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Our area will have increased rain chances again, Thursday night through Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will develop over Texas by Thursday, out ahead of the next southern stream upper system entering the southwestern U.S. and Baja Peninsula. With the possibility of a weak embedded disturbance entering the area, have a low PoP mainly for mainly our northeastern counties Thursday afternoon, where surface moisture flux convergence and weak instability will develop. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are similar overall with the main upper system, but the GFS is slightly faster with the progression and maintains more of an open trough than the ECMWF. A northern stream upper trough will move across the northern Plains Thursday morning, with associated cold front pushing south across west central Texas late Thursday night into Friday. With the arrival of the front and embedded disturbances entering our area in southwest flow aloft, the chance for showers/thunderstorms will increase Thursday night and continue Friday. The highest PoPs will shift to the southern half of our area on Friday. Indications are for most of the precipitation to occur along and behind the cold front. The upper low and trough will weaken by the time the system moves across the Big Bend region and into Texas Saturday afternoon or early Saturday night. Have a north-south PoP gradient Friday night and Saturday, with the higher PoPs across the southern third to half of our area, where the better lift and moisture will be. A few rounds of showers are expected with some elevated thunderstorms possible, given the increasing mid-level lapse rates. Although QPF is problematic, would anticipate that the southern third of our area could have rainfall totals of one-half to one inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Have a lingering PoP for Saturday night across roughly the southeast half of our area. Following departure of this system, warmer and drier conditions are expected overall for our area Sunday and early next week. 19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 65 55 76 51 60 / 20 10 20 50 40 San Angelo 65 56 80 54 62 / 20 10 20 40 50 Junction 65 60 78 59 65 / 40 10 20 40 70 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07