Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/17/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

 855 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2015

.Synopsis...
Weak weather systems moving through the region will result in some
light precipitation over portions of the of the forecast area and
the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday. Dry and warm weather is
expected for the latter half of the week. Next chance of more
widespread precipitation will be this weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
A stream of moisture will continue to bring mid to high level
clouds to the interior into Tuesday. The latest HRRR basically
keeps the current line of sprinkles and light showers along that
same area it is currently in through the rest of the night before
drying out Tuesday morning.

A low pressure area near 45N 138w will move into the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday. This will push the stream of moisture to the
east and south of the area. Some mountain showers or even an
isolated thunderstorm over the mountains may be possible...mainly
south of US-50 late in the day and early evening hours.

On Wednesday a low pressure area will move over the southern part
of the state. For the most part the northern portion of the state
looks to remain dry other than some precipitation chances over the
mountains south of I-80. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the
mountains will be possible once again. Northerly winds will help
to warm temperatures up once again into the mid 70s and even some
low 80s for some of the warmer valley locations over the north.
The ridge will continue to remain strong over the region on
Thursday with some continued warming expected for most areas. The
low over the south will move further south into Baja Mexico so no
showers are expected over the north part of the state.

.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Medium range models similar in bringing next short wave through
Interior NorCal late Friday into Saturday morning but differ with
strength of storm. All solutions showing the system weakening as
it moves onshore and overall QPF looks light and focused north
of I-80 in the Central Valley. Dry weather behind this system for
later Saturday into Sunday under upper ridging.

GFS/GEM showing a deeper system Monday with precip spreading
farther south over the entire CWA. Latest 12z EC has shifted to a
more progressive solution with QPF focused mainly north of I-80
for the Central Valley. Models have had a tendency of initially
showing deeper wetter systems towards the end of the forecast
period, then trend weaker with more northern track in later runs.
Given this, current forecast leans towards the 12Z EC. Synoptic
cooling over the area Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s for the Central Valley with mostly 40s to low 60s for the
mountains and foothills.


&&

.Aviation...

Wk fnt sags sloly S thru Intr NorCal tngt into Tue mrng then high
pres blds inld. Mnly VFR conds ovr fcst area nxt 24 hrs with isold
-shra poss.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

 550 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER FORECAST. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR. HOWEVER...SO FAR ZERO OF THE GAUGES
ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE INDICATED ANY TIPS OF THE BUCKET ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA DO INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN HAS
STARTED OVER THE NORTH BAY. 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND DOWN TO SF BAY BY LATE IN THE EVENING. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SAN MATEO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH. IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT -- JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR MOST SPOTS.

SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA ALONG
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
THE TROF FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN OUT OF OUR
CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH WITH
A PATTERN OF A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROF. RIGHT NOW NO
INDICATIONS OF A MAJOR RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:39 PM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE BAY AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE
TONIGHT NEAR THE COOL FRONT OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH BAY
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND CONTINUES TUESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE N-NW WINDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE AT KSTS FOR INSTANCE.
THE UKI-STS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECASTED TO BE (MODERATE-
STRONG) 2 MB TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ANOTHER VERY WEAK COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EPAC WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODEL
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITY FROM POINT REYES TO THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. AREAS OF
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ARE MORE LIKELY.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE TERMINAL ARE TENDING
TO EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
DRY RUNWAYS CONTINUE AT KSFO TERMINAL THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: RGASS

VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS RENO NV

 1205 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION
ROTORS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING
BOTH KRNO/KMMH WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN NEAR AS STRONG AS SOME
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, BOTH AT THE VALLEY FLOOR LEVEL AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS. THE HRRR RUNS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWED WINDS
NOT REACHING CURRENT TAF FORECAST LEVELS, KEEPING STRONGEST WINDS
JUST OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE ANY DECISION TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS MADE. THE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS STRONG AND WINDS COULD QUICKLY INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND MIXING
INCREASES. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE
FROM SMALLER AIRCRAFT IN THE VICINITY OF KRNO AS WINDS WERE MUCH
STRONGER AT RIDGE LEVEL AND LEE MT WAVE ACTIVITY WAS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN CLOUD FORMATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. SO IT IS
GOING TO BE A BUMPY RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AND START ADVISORIES A LITTLE EARLY. A FEW
SPOTS WERE ALREADY HITTING 50 MPH AND THE WINDS AROUND PYRAMID
LAKE WERE STARTING TO INCREASE AS AS WELL. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST ITSELF AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AND
BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGEST GRADIENTS AND MIXING
OVERLAP. UPDATES ISSUED. HOHMANN

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL AREAS TODAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. AS
THROUGH WEAKENS, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTHERN LASSEN THROUGH VERY
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

AS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE CONTINUED
TRIMMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK; ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LEFT
TODAY IN VERY NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY. AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH TO DAMPEN WIND SPEEDS FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS AND THE SIERRA
FRONT FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY 60 MPH AT 700MB WITH A ISOTHERMAL
TO WEAKLY STABLE LAYER AROUND THE PEAK. THIS CORRELATES TO A
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND MID-
LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH.
THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BEGIN
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SIGNATURES
ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT CONSIDERING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S, MIXING ALONE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE GUSTS INTO THE 40-45MPH RANGE.
BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEVADA INTERIOR DROPPING DOWN TO
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK. EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITY FOR SOME SPOTS
DOWN TO 1-3 MILES.

WINDS TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE
REGION. GENERAL TROUGHINESS SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
LIFTING JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY, STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE SIERRA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM UPPER LEVEL
COOLING. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION ABOVE 25% FOR THE SIERRA
FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY TUESDAY EVENING
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. SOME WEAK CAPE IS SHOWING UP, BUT
IT IS LESS THAN 50 J/KG WHILE SHOWING A LOWERING TREND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED, WEAKLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ARISING OUT OF SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT
REPRESENTS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW/BAGGY TROUGH
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE WITH THE
EC NOW DRIER THAN THE GFS. THIS LOW WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, BUT THE FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WITH MILD TEMPS AND
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH IT, WE ARE EXPECTING MORE DIURNAL, I.E.
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SHOWERS WITH IT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. HAVE
DRIED THINGS OUT NORTH OF 80 EXCEPT TOWARD LASSEN PEAK IN NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH
THE INSTABILITY.

THIS LOW PULLS AWAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR LATE
WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT CA/NV NORTH OF I-80 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER, BUT IT WILL NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH FOCUS IN
THE ENSEMBLES NORTH OF I-80 HAVE TRENDED POPS MORE THERE, BUT DID
LEAVE IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MINERAL COUNTY.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN
WESTERN NV AND NEAR 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS
THIS MORNING. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS TODAY WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS 25-40 KTS
STRONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS GUSTING TO 65
KTS TAHOE BASIN AND LOWER NEAR KMMH. EXPECT SOME ROTORS AND MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE BUT LLWS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. GOOD MIXING AND A MORE
UNIFORM LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MTN WAVES WEAK NEAR THE
SURFACE.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LCL MVFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCN
NORTH OF KSVE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002-003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070>072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 356 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AHEAD WILL DISSIPATE ONE THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS.

DOWN-SLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CENTER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH DOWN-SLOPE FLOW AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. OUR FORECAST INCLUDES A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER
LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF.
LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 254 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR.  THIS
SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO
UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER
LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF.
LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1037 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT

SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BUT WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND A MODEST TEMPERATURE
DROP. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE PNEUMONIA FRONT BLASTING IN OFF
THE WEST SHORE OF THE LAKE IN WISCONSIN ALREADY WHICH WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH INLAND AND UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE...ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMP
DROP OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES IN A MANNER OF MINUTES ALONG THE
LAKEFRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT THOUGH LESS DRAMATIC TEMP DROP AS YOU
GET INLAND A BIT.

APPEARS TO BE A GOOD 12 HOUR LONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY GALE EVENT
OVER THE LAKE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING HIGH
END GALES AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF STORM FORCE GUSTS. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL PUSH WAVE UPWARDS OF 10 TO 14 FT ALONG THE COOK
COUNTY ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORE AND WITH LAKE LEVELS STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE (SIMILAR TO LAST OCTOBER) WOULD EXPECT MINOR LAKESHORE
FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CONSISTENCY IN TOP OF THE CHANNEL
WINDS OF 44-48KT LATE TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT THESE LEVELS TO BE
APPROACHED IN GUSTS ALONG THE LAKEFRONT DUE TO LESS FRICTION AND
AMPLE MIXING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES.
GIVEN THE ABOVE OPTED TO GO WITH A LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY AND
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS OF INDIANA AND COOK COUNTY
ILLINOIS.

IZZI

&&

.SHORT TERM...
230 PM CDT

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WEAK SFC LOW IS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIDE
SWATH OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.  THE CIRRUS IS DOING A NUMBER ON OUR
TEMPS...AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPS BY 10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
STILL GOING TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...JUST NOT AS WARM.  WIND GUSTS
ARE ALSO PICKING UP FINALLY.  THE LOW PASSES OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS EVENING AND A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH REACHING
NORTHERN IL IN THE MID EVENING AROUND 8PM.  WINDS WILL TURN NORTH
AND GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH.  WINDS INCREASE OVER THE LAKE...WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE.  WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR TWO SO
LOWS ARE IN THE MID 30S.

SKIES CLEAR AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH...BUT BREEZY NORTH WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING. WIND GUSTS SLOWLY DIMINISH IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES...925 MB TEMPS WILL BE BTWN 0 AND -4C MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE
SEASONAL.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...AND AROUND 40 IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE LAKE.  THE HIGH
PASSES OVER NORTHERN IL TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THINKING WE WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 20S
FOR LOWS.

JEE

&&

.LONG TERM...
319 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COOLER...MORE SEASONAL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN BATCH OF COLD AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...AND AN
OVERALL MUCH COOLER AIR MASS...IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 INLAND...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

CONDITIONS DO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS
THE FLOW BACKS MORE WESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD ADVECT A THERMAL RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 50S AREA-WIDE...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY MORNING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...IS FORECAST TO BECOME DISLODGED AND FORCED SOUTHWARD OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AGAIN BY
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MILD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES CRASH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS COLD PUNCH WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS SOME LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. THESE COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR IS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...IT APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD
ACROSS THE AREA. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THIS
SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN MAINLY
TO OUR SOUTH. OUR BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY...ALBEIT
LOW...WILL BE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
AREA.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NNE/NE MID EVENING
* POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT
* STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30KT AT TIMES
* UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND DIRECTION TUES AFTERNOON DUE TO LAKE
  BREEZE

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

SEVERAL OBS ACROSS EASTERN WI COMING IN WITH SOME LOW CLOUDINESS
THAT IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE BY HIGH CLOUDS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS IFR CIGS SPREADING BRIEFLY INTO NE IL
FOR A TIME LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE OBS
IN WI NOW AND LACK OF ANY SATELLITE DATA TO CONTRADICT THE HRRR
HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW IT.

IZZI

UPDATED 00Z...

STRONG LAKE ENHANCED FRONT WILL COME BARRELLING THROUGH THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO 020-040
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20KT WITH GUSTS TO OR AT TIMES
ABOVE 30KT. STILL SOME SMALL POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH NO INDICATIONS OF
DEVELOPMENT YET AND WITH DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LESS THAN
EARLIER EXPECTATIONS IT WOULD APPEAR THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THOUGH STILL NOT ZERO. WINDS WILL
EASE TUESDAY MORNING AND SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO
MORE NORTHWESTERLY...HOWEVER THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP PRETTY CLOSE TO ORD DURING THE AFTERNOON LEAVING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AT ORD TUES AFTERNOON. SHOULD LAKE
BREEZE END UP EAST OF THE TERMINALS A NORTHWEST WIND WOULD BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SHOULD LAKE BREEZE SET UP FARTHER WEST THEN A
LIGHTER (PROBABLY 10KT OR LESS) NORTHEAST WOULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZE COULD WOBBLE AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERHAPS GETTING AN EASTWARD PUSH BY STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
GRADIENT FOR A TIME IN THE LATER AFTERNOON BEFORE POSSIBLY MAKING
A BIT OF A RUN WESTWARD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
RELAXES. ALL IN ALL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW WELL DEFINED OF A
LAKE BREEZE WILL BE AROUND TUES AFTERNOON AND WHERE IT WILL END UP
WITH ORD`S POTENTIALLY ENDING UP ON EITHER (OR BOTH SIDE AT TIMES)
OF 360 DEGREES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SSUBSIDE TUESDAY EVENING.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SIDE OF 360 DEGREES ORD`S WINDS
  WILL BE TUES AFTERNOON
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MDW WIND DIRECTION TUES AFTERNOON
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
230 PM CDT

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST CENTRAL WI PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE BY MID EVENING.  THEREFORE UPGRADED
THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. THE GALES THEN REACH THE NSH ZONES LATE
THIS EVENING. A FEW GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO
50 KT IF WE MIX TO THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL...BUT THINKING THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY IF THEY DO OCCUR.  THE NORTH GALES
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE HIGH SITS OVER
THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS BECOME VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN VARY FROM
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A
LOW PASSES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK WITH SW WINDS OVER
THE LAKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGRED TO SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO 20-30
KT BEHIND IT SIMILAR TO THE FRONT THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS THE HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT 15-25 KT.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...2 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY.

IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...2 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
     TUESDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1002 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE CWA. LATEST COUPLE HRS OF OBS SHOWING GUSTS REACHING 30-40
MPH...WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEBRASKA SHOWING IN
THE 20S...SO DO EXPECT A DECREASING AS THE MORNING HRS COME ABOUT.
REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.

OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.

TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR MAINLY SCT-BKN120-250...BUT KMCK
WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS...BKN025...FROM 09Z-14Z. NNE WINDS
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 15-30KTS..WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 40KTS THRU 10Z TUESDAY. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT
FROM NE TO ESE AT 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 747 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TAKE IN LATEST OBS DATA FROM THE AREA
AS FRONT CONTINUES ITS PUSH SOUTH THRU THE CWA. THE PASSAGE THRU
THE FORECAST AREA HAS RESULTED IN LOWERED TEMPS...AND INCREASED RH
VALUES...SO HAVE CANCELLED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO SOME LOCALES WILL HAVE WINDY
VERSUS BREEZY WORDING AS A RESULT OF GRADIENT BEHIND EXITING
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.

OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.

TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR MAINLY SCT-BKN120-250...BUT KMCK
WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS...BKN025...FROM 09Z-14Z. NNE WINDS
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 15-30KTS..WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 40KTS THRU 10Z TUESDAY. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT
FROM NE TO ESE AT 10-20KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 539 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

HAVE ISSUED AN ESTF UPDATE TO GET IN LATEST OBS DATA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPS STILL REMAIN QUITE WARM IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90F...AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WORKING INTO
NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS TIME TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE LATEST ON THE RED FLAG WARNING...SEE
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.

OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.

TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR MAINLY SCT-BKN120-250...BUT KMCK
WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS...BKN025...FROM 09Z-14Z. NNE WINDS
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 15-30KTS..WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 40KTS THRU 10Z TUESDAY. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT
FROM NE TO ESE AT 10-20KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 800PM MDT/900PM CDT.
THE AREA REMAINS QUITE WARM STILL JUST BEFORE SUNSET. RH VALUES
STILL MEET CRITERIA IN MANY LOCALES...BUT WINDS ARE LACKING. THIS
MAY CHANGE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GUSTING IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE. DO EXPECT RH
VALUES/TEMPS TO DROP OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO
BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016-
     028-029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 521 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.

REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.

OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.

TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR MAINLY SCT-BKN120-250...BUT KMCK
WILL SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS...BKN025...FROM 09Z-14Z. NNE WINDS
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 15-30KTS..WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 40KTS THRU 10Z TUESDAY. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT
FROM NE TO ESE AT 10-20KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016-
     028-029-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 352 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing
some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to
20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70
which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in
combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative
humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled
best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag
Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line
until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was
the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but
lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up
slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This
should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight.

As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on
Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen
and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions
across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the
very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are
expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints
but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon
humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west
of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch
is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location.
Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the
area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on
Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it
a warning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central
and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east
central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind
the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to
northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south.
Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the
middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of
the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday
night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly
southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM
the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be
too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts
of moisture to the region.  The best chance will be likely be on
Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of
energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft.
 However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general
showers.  Then we do start to become a little more active into the
late Sunday time frame.  During this time, the upper level pattern
begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low
pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise.
However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of
any associated low or good forcing.  Temperatures do still look to
be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by
Saturday.  Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering
the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast for all
terminal sites with no more than scattered cirrus. Gusty southwest
winds of 15 to 24 kts will decrease to 6-9 kts aft 01Z/16 before
increasing again to 10-20 kts after 15z/16.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 to 30 mph...will
maintain Red Flag Warning until 8 pm with minimum RH levels at or
below 20 percent. Temps fall and RH increases sufficiently by 8 pm
to let it expire at that time. Monday is looking similar to today
across areas north and west of the I 35 corridor with RH levels
falling into the 11-20 percent range in this area as temperatures
rise into the lower 80s with similar winds again Monday. Confidence
is increasing that the Fire Weather watch may need to be updgraded
to a Red Flag warning...but will let the shifts later tonight
reevaluate the need following the expiration of the current Red Flag
warning in effect this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-034>039.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...63
FIRE WEATHER...63







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.

SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.

BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GRADAULLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.

STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935

RECORDS FOR MONDAY

GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 525 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.

SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.

BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. FOR KGLD...THOSE WINDS WILL START RIGHT
AWAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. FOR KMCK...THOSE GUSTY
WINDS WILL NOT START UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.

STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935

RECORDS FOR MONDAY

GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ253-254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 340 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.

SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.

BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW-
SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN
BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.

STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935

RECORDS FOR MONDAY

GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ253-254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 328 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.

MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.

SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.

BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW-
SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN
BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.

STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.

FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935

RECORDS FOR MONDAY

GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
     PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ253-254.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST
SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

BASED ON VIS SAT THERE ARE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MOST AREAS
ARE SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER A FOGGY START TO THE DAY. TAFS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
OVER...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SME OR PERHAPS LOZ COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN MOVING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
DRYING SUNSHINE TODAY...DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND GUIDANCE NOT
HINTING AT FOG ISSUES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SITES VFR AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1131 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST
SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1012 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING. MANY OF THE SITES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR IN DRY ENOUGH
AIR TO KEEP THE FOG AT BAY WHILE LOCATIONS LIKE LOZ AND SME WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO SEE THE DENSE FOG IMPACT THEIR SITE. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT...MVFR...FOG JUST TOWARD DAWN AT THE
OTHERS...BUT LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR OR VLIFR
FOG THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. LEADING INTO THE FOG SETTING UP
AT THOSE STATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALL THE FOG CLEARS BY 14Z WITH SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 1255 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

PREV DISC...
700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER
SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT
TO THE EAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD
STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT
OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO
THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM
PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL
BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW
FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO
HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE
00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS
COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR
TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON
GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU
AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW
AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND
500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL
LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE
MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-013-014.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
     002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 1028 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE
NH/ME STATE LINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS WAS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS HRRR MODEL RUN.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS EVENING...ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

PREV DISC...
700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER
SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT
TO THE EAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD
STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH
SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT
OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO
THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM
PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL
BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW
FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO
HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE
00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS
COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR
TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON
GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU
AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW
AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND
500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL
LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE
MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-013-014.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
     002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 147 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MAINE LATER THIS
EVENING...SPREADING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW INLAND. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IN INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...REALLY CUT BACK SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS UPDATE WITH
DRY SLOT ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...LEAVING BEST FORCING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. ALL MODELS
ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HRRR ALSO SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIP
FALLING WELL TO THE NORTH AND IN CARIBOU`S FORECAST AREA. WILL BE
DROPPING MOST HEADLINES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE WITH EXCEPTION OF
MOST NORTHERN ZONES.


02Z UPDATE...ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING SULLIVAN...BELKNAP...
MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES WHICH EXPIRES AT 10 PM. SURFACE
OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS AREA AND STEADIER
PRECIP HAS NOW MOVED EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL
LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
STEADIER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND EXPECT THIS THIS AREA TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE
COAST. 17Z GYX SOUNDING REVEALED THAT ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE OVERLY WARM THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COLD AIR DAMMING TREND WILL KEEP A
LITTLE MORE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVAPORATION COOLING CONTINUES WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES STILL IN THE 20S MANY AREAS. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OF MAINE EXCEPT YORK COUNTY
INTO THIS EVENING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE PERIOD 03Z-06Z.
THEREFORE...AT THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN OR
SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ALL MODELS WRAP SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE COAST SUNDAY. OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE...LESS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
THEREFORE...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION.

SNOW TRANSITIONS TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW WIND CHILLS AND RATHER CHILLY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE NEAR ZERO
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
MONDAY. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT BUT OVERALL IMPACT LIKELY THE SAME FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD. A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
COULD INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IF LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO OUR
EAST... THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS
WHILE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS. ALTHOUGH
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
THE AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ALL THE DETAILS WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...
STRENGTH... AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW AFFECT
THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST NOTABLE DISCREPANCY
EXISTS ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF TRACKS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. THE GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG IN THE BAYS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT.

LONG TERM...OFFSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST UP TO GALE FORCE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ018-019-024>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NHZ003-005-006.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
     002-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

 940 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER QUIET/MILD EVE UNDER VRB HI CLDNS. A WARM FRONT LINGERS
INVOF THE CHES BAY ATTM...AND WILL BE SLO TO LIFT TO THE NE ACRS
THE DELMARVA OVRNGT. LATEST RUC HAS THAT WARM FRONT HAVING PUSHED
THROUGH THAT AREA AFT 09-11Z/17. LO TEMPS FM THE L/M40S ON PARTS OF
THE ERN SHORE...TO THE L/M50S ACRS MOST VA/NE NC COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CDFNT DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTRN/EVE. FA REMAINS IN WARM
AIRMASS UNTIL FROPA...SO EXPCT TMPS TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY ON TUE.
HI TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S NR THE CHES BAY/OCN AND ON THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE M70S TO L80S INLAND UNDER PT SUNNY CONDS (1.5 STD
DEV ABOVE NRMAL). MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THE BEST
SPRT FOR CLOUDS / SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS ERN SHORE/CHES BAY AREA
BTWN 18Z- 22Z THEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SERN VA/ NE NC BTWN 21-02Z.
VERY LIGHT QPF XPCTD...TRACE TO .01 AT BEST.

CLEARING SKIES WITH CAA TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW. LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE L-M30S.

HIGH PRS OVERHEAD WED. H85 TMPS SUPPORT BLO NORMAL TMPS DESPITE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS M-U40S NEAR THE WATER...L-M50S WEST OF
THE BAY.

RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE WED EVE ALLOWING MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE
SW. DRY THROUGH 12Z WITH LOWS IN THE L-M30S.

MODELS DIFFER WRT HOW FAST MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE FA THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN STATES. SREF/NAM/ECMWF HAVE THE HIGH
ALONG THE COAST KEEPING IT DRY THROUGH 00Z XCPT FOR THE SWRN MOST
CNTYS. GFS MUCH QUICKER IN SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA WITH
THE BULK OF THE PCPN IN THE AFTRN. GFS WOULD EVEN ARGUE FOR A P-TYPE
ISSUE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...RAIN/SLEET MIX. GIVEN THE
SLOWER TREND AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER... WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT IT DRY ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 16Z...CHC POPS (RAIN) SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTRN WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS SWRN MOST
CNTYS LATE. HIGHS M40S NORTH TO NR 50 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ONE SYSTM ERLY IN THE PERIOD. FOR THU NIGHT...A
BATCH OF WAA PCPN OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS SFC LO PRES DEVELOPS NR
THE CAROLINA CST. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LIKELY (60-70%) ACROSS
THE AREA AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR AREA-WIDE PCPN. LO TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO ERLY
FRI...ENDING FM W TO E FRI AFTN/EVENG AS THE SFC LO STRENGTHENS AND
PULLS OFFSHORE. TEMPS FRI ABOUT 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
ONLY RANGING FM THE MID TO UPR 40S N TO MID TO UPR 50S S. DRY WX
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR SAT (HIGHS IN
THE LWR 60S IN MANY AREAS).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A RIDGE INTO EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 18Z TO 23Z TIME
FRAME TUESDAY.VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.

SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 6-8 K FT WILL BE PSBL NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTN. W/SW GUSTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NW/NNW DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30KT
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KSBY/KORF/KPHF.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE W/ DIMINISHING WINDS ARE FORECAST WED. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND LOW
AVIATION CONDITIONS LATE THU INTO FRI. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE AREA...WITH
WINDS BACKING TO SELY OVER THE BAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TNGT
INTO ERLY TUE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT
CROSSES THE WTRS TUE AFTN...WITH STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED POST
FRNTAL OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN...AND MARGINAL SCA CONDS FOR THE
RIVERS AND SOUND. WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE IT TO GALE FORCE OVER CSTL
WTRS BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNDER THREE HRS IF AT ALL. WITH
WINDS BEING NWLY AND BLO GALE FORCE...ONLY EXPECT SEAS TO REACH 4-6
FT OVER THE OCEAN WITH 3-4 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY. ALL HEADLINES END
DURING THE DAY WED AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W LEADING TO
IMPROVING MARINE CONDS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. NEXT LO PRES SYSTM
AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THU THRU FRI...WITH SCA CONDS PSBL BUT
NOT DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA/WRS
MARINE...MAS














AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.

TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.

SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID MARCH.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH.

A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD
INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO
-17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE
ICE COVER EXIST.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.

THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A
RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

PASSING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY...LOW-LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR WX TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. WITH
STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER...
KIWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS. SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED AT
KCMX. SO...LLWS MAY OCCUR THERE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...WITH SOME DEEPER MIXING...KSAW AND KIWD WILL SEE GUSTS
AOA 25KT IN THE AFTN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.

OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 854 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS SOME LOW LEVEL
FLOW EXISTS DUE TO THE REGION BEING ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
1021MB SFC HIGH/SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NRN GULF. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
AREAS WHERE LIGHT WINDS COULD DEVELOP...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEPING ONLY LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS OVERNIGHT. HRRR WANTS TO LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THE HWY 82
CORRIDOR BUT EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE EVEN BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LOWS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WE GO THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOG
THREAT SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SPRING HAS SPRUNG ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA THANKS TO
CONSIDERABLE SUN. HOWEVER A RETURN TO A WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE
OFFING BEGINNING MIDWEEK.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT FROM THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THERE IS STRONGER YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA. IT IS BELIEVED THIS FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AVOID THE
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISSUES EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
MORNINGS...BUT PATCHY FOG STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN
SHELTERED LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE NICE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT CHANGES WILL BEGIN AS
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAKING IT WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING OVER SOUTH
MS/CENTRAL LA WEDNESDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL ASSIMILATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WED
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THE
PREDAWN HOURS TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...RECENT GUIDANCE RUNS
HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TO AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE DIVERGENT LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING GIVEN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MORE IN QUESTION GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL FEATURE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER JET LOOKS
TO HOLD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO HANG UP NEAR OR DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA
ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE THE FRONT A SHOVE TO THE SOUTH...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES
TRANSITING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCE FOR
GENERALLY LIGHTER PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND...SWINGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SPURRING COASTAL SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS AND EURO ARE MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS
FEATURE KEEPING IT ALONG THE COAST AND KEEPING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS WAVE AND BRING THE
SURFACE LOW AND RESULTING PRECIP FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE AREA...BUT THIS BEARS
MONITORING.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.  /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  81  57  68 /   0   7  18  64
MERIDIAN      57  83  55  69 /   0   4  13  52
VICKSBURG     59  81  57  68 /   0  11  24  73
HATTIESBURG   61  84  59  74 /   0   8  12  55
NATCHEZ       60  81  58  70 /   0  12  20  77
GREENVILLE    58  78  51  60 /   0   9  30  69
GREENWOOD     58  80  52  63 /   0   5  22  61

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/17/DL





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 852 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO FILL IN THAN EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...SO WE DELAYED THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCE OF POPS A A BIT
OVERNIGHT. THAT/S IN LINE WITH THE 00 UTC NAM AND RECENT RAP AND
HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SNOWFALL IN
BILLINGS PROPER WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM MDT. ROADS
WILL LIKELY ONLY GET WET...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS IN
PLACES LIKE RED LODGE AND COLUMBUS WHERE SNOW AND ICE IS POSSIBLE
ON SOME ROADS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DROP
LOWS A BIT IN SPOTS BASED ON MID-EVENING OBSERVATIONS. SCHULTZ

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

BIG PICTURE SHOWS TWO HEALTHY MECHANISMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TAPPED INTO THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND A SURGE OF
MOISTURE COMING UP THE HIGH PLAINS BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN MEXICO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TOOLS LOOKING AT
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE BOTTOM
LINE BEING THE AIRMASS IS ABUNDANTLY MOIST FOR PRECIPITATION.
DETAIL QUESTIONS ARE WILL ANY OF IT FALL AS SNOW AND HOW MUCH
FORCING WILL BE AROUND TO DRIVE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS.

COLD AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEING AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. RAIN SNOW MIX REPORTED AT BILLINGS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS STILL CLOSER TO 40
DEGREES. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA IS HELPING PUSH THE COLD AIR IN AND AS IT MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IT ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO BUILD A BIT OVER WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS VEERS MID LEVEL FLOW AND HELPS PUSH THE BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH FURTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
TO WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS BUT WILL SEE BETTER PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS.

DEEPER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
OVERNIGHT KEEPS BUILDING THE HEIGHTS AND SHIFTS THEM EAST INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO MOVE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SHIFTS THE BEST BAND OF PRECIPITATON NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY AND
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS EARLY TUESDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO MAINTAINS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WHILE MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
PATTERN LINGERS FOR MOST OF TUESDAY SO EXPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS
TUESDAY FROM BILLINGS WEST TO SEE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WHILE FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RATES SLOW.

MODELS DISAGREE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASES SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST SREF MEMBERS SLOW PRECIPITATION
FOR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW SHOW AN UPTICK
LATE IN THE DAY. GFS IS DIFFERENT BY SHOWING A MORE CONTINUAL
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. EITHER WAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER
WEDS 06-18Z BEFORE SHOWERS BRING A BIT STRONGER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND .25 TO .50 FOR WESTERN
AREAS AND MUCH LESS IN EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TONIGHT AND THEN THEY
WILL WARM DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS WEST
OF A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN WILL CHANGE BACK FROM SNOW
TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY BE
FALLING. THIS CAN KEEP ACCUMULATIONS FROM BECOMING TO SUBSTANTIAL
IN THESE AREAS BUT AN INCH OR 2 IN THE GRASS IS POSSIBLE BUT
ROADWAYS ARE PRETTY WARM DUE TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL.

BIGGER CHALLENGE MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS HARLOWTON TO
BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN LINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY STAY SNOW LONGER OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY
BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECASTS MODERATE TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST. WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT FOR
WESTERN AREAS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
BILLINGS AND BIG TIMBER WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. BORSUM

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD..SO VERY FEW CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. AN OVERALL WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST RETURNS. UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT. IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LITTLE WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NOTHING REAL ORGANIZED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...RIDGE BOUNCES BACK FOR A DRY MONDAY. FRIEDERS

&&

.AVIATION...

LOOK FOR POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE MTNS
FROM KLVM TO KBIL AND KSHR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER WILL
IMPACT THESE SITES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SNOWFALL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT KMLS AND KBHK
TONIGHT...BUT PCPN WITH AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR WILL SPREAD EAST TO
THESE SITES ON TUESDAY. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/047 038/053 036/060 036/066 037/063 037/060 033/060
    77/W    63/W    31/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    10/B
LVM 032/046 038/048 034/058 035/064 037/062 034/059 031/059
    68/W    76/W    21/B    00/B    02/W    32/W    01/B
HDN 029/052 034/054 033/062 033/068 034/066 033/062 029/065
    76/W    54/W    31/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    00/B
MLS 026/046 032/045 031/057 033/062 031/057 030/054 030/061
    13/W    54/W    21/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    10/U
4BQ 026/047 031/047 032/057 031/066 032/059 031/054 030/063
    35/W    42/W    21/B    00/B    01/B    22/W    10/U
BHK 020/044 026/038 026/053 030/056 026/049 024/049 026/057
    11/E    55/W    21/B    00/B    11/B    22/W    00/U
SHR 028/050 034/050 032/056 030/064 034/061 034/058 031/062
    84/W    33/W    42/W    00/B    01/B    22/W    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 925 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES.
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE REGION. HRRR SEEMS A
BIT OVERDONE WITH AREAS OF QPF TODAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
CLOUD BASES ON THE ORDER OF 8-10KFT WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE VIRGA OR AT MOST SPRINKLES. WILL KEEP WITH JUST ISOLD POPS
OVER OUR WEST AND NORTH...AND SCATTERED OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS.
TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR JUST RAIN
SHOWERS EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS...12Z 700MB TEMP WAS A
WHOPPING +4C UPSTREAM AT BOISE. WE WILL SEE SOME RECORDS FALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FROM REACHING OUR FULL
POTENTIAL WITH HOW WARM THE EXISTING AIRMASS IS. REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER...DEWPTS ARE 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...A RESULT OF THE GRADUAL MOISTENING UNDERWAY...SO EXPECT
HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY EVEN WITH SIMILAR TEMPS. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WAS SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
NOT FALLING MUCH PAST THE 50S. WILL HAVE A VERY WARM START TO THE
DAY. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
OVER MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT BATCH
OF CLOUDS ENTERING WESTERN IDAHO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
BUMPED HIGHS TODAY DUE TO SUCH A WARM START. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AGAIN TODAY.

NEED TO MENTION FIRE WEATHER HERE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WERE NOT
GREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LEVELS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S. MODELS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF GREAT MOISTENING OVER THE MID
LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MOISTENING IS PRESENT BUT NOT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT. WARMER HIGHS WILL LEAD TO SOME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE WINDS.
MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW SOME GUSTINESS...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT STRONGLY
WORD THE FORECAST.

WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE STRONG AS GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT. MIXING LOOKS DEEPER AT LIVINGSTON TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS NOT AS STRONG. 700MB WINDS DO REACH
50KTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS BEING HIT LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HARLOWTON AS LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE
AFTERNOON OF MIXING HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARNING WINDS THERE...AND THE MIXING
WINDOWS LOOKS BRIEF...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONCE ADVERTISED FOR TONIGHT...HAS BEEN
SLOWED EVER FURTHER TO BE MORE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
COME TOGETHER ON KEEPING FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING
SOUTHERN MONTANA MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND GEARED IT TO MORE OF A
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND MADE IT VERY LIGHT TOO. BACKED OFF
MORE ON POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
HAS ALSO BACKED OFF WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY FALLING BELOW
0C OVER CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY AS GUIDANCE WAS MUCH
WARMER. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AS IT WOULD BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MORE THAN
ANYTHING. WILL DROP THE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HWO
AND WEATHER STORY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WENDESDAY BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT...AT THIS
TIME...NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER ON SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND APPROACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&

.AVIATION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW MORE SUN BREAKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS INVOF KLVM. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT
KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 35 TO 45KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 55KTS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BORSUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 044/050 030/053 036/052 034/055 034/062 035/066
    1/N 24/W    52/W    22/W    31/B    11/U    11/B
LVM 071 047/058 032/056 038/056 033/056 033/062 034/068
    4/W 34/W    42/W    23/W    31/B    11/B    21/B
HDN 078 043/051 030/055 032/054 032/059 031/063 033/066
    1/N 24/W    52/W    22/W    31/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 076 041/047 027/047 034/053 031/054 030/059 031/061
    1/E 35/W    22/W    22/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 078 042/057 028/049 032/056 031/055 030/059 031/062
    0/E 13/W    42/W    22/W    32/W    11/B    11/B
BHK 075 038/045 022/044 029/050 029/051 025/055 028/054
    0/B 24/W    21/E    22/W    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 077 043/057 031/056 035/055 032/053 029/058 034/064
    1/N 13/W    42/W    22/W    43/W    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
      65-66.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.

THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:

GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935

FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.

MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.

TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.

WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?

THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.

KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SITS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH. THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET BUT THE REST OF THE SETUP IS SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN STARTING ON OR AFTER 03Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH
MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED
FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY.

FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES
AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION
OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...EWALD
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.

A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS AT TIMES. THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
TO THE SOUTH BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210-
219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 635 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.

A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 20000 FT
AGL ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH CLEARING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 542 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.

THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:

GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935

FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.

MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.

TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.

WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?

THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.

KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. WE SHOULD
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING UNTIL
WIND INCREASES AT GROUND LEVEL. THESE ISSUES RETURN THIS EVENING
AS WE DECOUPLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH
MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED
FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY.

FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES
AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION
OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 420 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.

AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.

THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.

SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.

POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:

GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935

FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.

MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.

TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.

TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.

WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?

THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.

KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE BIG ISSUE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
OCCURRING HOURS BEFORE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND THIS SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE GROUND. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY...THE WIND SHEAR ISSUE SHOULD DECREASE.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 359 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.

A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C
SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT
REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS
IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH
KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES
THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE
THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST
TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT
EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY
MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER.

FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY.
LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH
700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND
WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK
SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL
BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP
TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET
STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12
SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.

A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW
COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL
AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015

WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS
INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO
WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER
/700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE
AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND
208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM
NEEDED THE WARNING.

ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY
CHANGES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-208.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 916 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING AND REACH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAS REALLY
BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
LIMIT THE MENTION OVERNIGHT TO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN THERE
HAVE LOWERED CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. BOTH THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC SHOW LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGE
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.


CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RADAR
SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING AS WELL. INITIALLY BELIEVE MUCH OF THIS
IS ALOFT BUT EVENTUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM CLEVELAND TO YOUNGSTOWN
AND CHANCE NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE. THROUGH LATE EVENING AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AS BEST LIFT MOVES EAST AND WHILE COLD
FRONT IS STILL TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE
AGAIN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. WILL
WORK UP TO LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS NWRN PA LATE WHILE
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE GOOD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE TRICKY THAN THE ACTUAL
LOWS WITH EVENING TEMPS DROPPING OFF SLOWLY IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD THEN DROP OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF IN THE NEAR TERM FOR TIMING OF MOISTURE AND THE COLD
FRONT. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
WITH THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST.
WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN
OHIO. WILL GO WITH LIKELY IN NWRN PA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. POPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE LAKE
STILL MOSTLY FROZEN NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR
PRECIP OFF THE LAKE IN THE COLD ADVECTION. SO WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK/THIN AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR. MODELS BRING A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO NWRN PA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WHILE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT DRY AND COOL.
THURSDAY MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES IN
DECENT OVERRUNNING. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE REACHES INTO THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. WE ARE WATCHING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD SNEAK A STRAY
SHOWER INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

BY THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
CANADA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH 50 DEGREES
WHILE NORTHERN LOCATIONS REACH HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THEN
START TO FALL. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 7-10Z WITH MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BE BREEZY INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CEILINGS WILL START TO LIFT AS MIXING INCREASES BY LATE MORNING WITH
LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND PULL
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 144 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
NUMEROUS SHRA OF RAIN OR SNOW DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS VERSUS THE RUC. THE HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP INITIALIZING
WITH FAR MORE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT SO QUESTION THE
FORECAST OUTPUT. WILL BACK POPS IN THE SNOWBELT AREA DOWN A LITTLE
MORE PER THE RUC. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE
NOT LOOKING DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.

LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE SW HALF HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS THERE TO FALL
MORE THAN NE BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TEMP FALLS IN THE SW
HALF WILL SLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAMS AND NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.

MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT
FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY
GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH
THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SOME.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY
HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER
DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN
MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO
AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE OHIO(AND POSSIBLY TOL) OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT ERI OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT.   WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012-014-
     018-019-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1124 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW TO PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
BLAST OF ICY AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
USING THE RUC TO TIME THE CURRENT SHOWERS SHOWS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
DROPS OUT OF THE GR LAKES FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MINS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW ZIPS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FINGERLAKES AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER AS COLDER AIR
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH...BUT DOWNSLOPING INTO SOUTHEAST PA
WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT QUITE MILD. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER SUSQ
WILL PUSH 60F FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A SLIGHT
RECOVERY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
GFS/GEFS/EC INDICATE CONTINUED MAINLY DRY AND COOL COND1TIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE EC FOR A QUASI SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS DEEP COLD AIR
HOLDS TOUGH TO OUR NE...AND WEST TO SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TRIES TO PUMP HIGHER PWAT AIR NE FROM THE LOWER
MISS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE COULD
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO EARLY WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SFC LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE COAST
WHICH COULD BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON PRECIP TYPE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH RAIN FRIDAY EARLY...BUT SWITCHING TO SNOW AS
THE COLD AIR CREEPS IN. 850 MB TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE -16C TO
-21C RANGE. SO A MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NOW EXITING THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE ATTM. STILL
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS STAYING AOA 5KFT AGL IN
MOST AREAS. CALM WINDS MAY PROMOTE PERIOD OF MVFR VIS OVER THE ERN
TAFS UNTL GRADIENT FLOW PICKS UP TOWARD DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z IN THE WEST AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE /HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTIONS AT BFD/JST IN ZOB SECTOR DUE TO
CAA AND UPSLOPE/ WITH LOW END VFR PREVAILING IN THE EASTERN SXNS.
DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ESPECIALLY E OF THE MTNS.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX/CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN
OVER THE WRN TAFS EARLY TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL
BECOME THE MAIN ISSUE THRU TUESDAY WITH FQNT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. LOOK FOR CLEARING BY LATE AFTN ESP DOWNWIND OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320.

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX.

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1035 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW TO PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
BLAST OF ICY AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

USING THE RUC TO TIME THE CURRENT SHOWERS SHOWS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
DROPS OUT OF THE GR LAKES FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD.

IT WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MINS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SFC LOW ZIPS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FINGERLAKES AND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER AS COLDER AIR
WORKS IN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH INCREASINGLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOME 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH...BUT DOWNSLOPING INTO SOUTHEAST PA
WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT QUITE MILD. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER SUSQ
WILL PUSH 60F FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A SLIGHT
RECOVERY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
GFS/GEFS/EC INDICATE CONTINUED MAINLY DRY AND COOL COND1TIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GFS/GEFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE EC FOR A QUASI SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AS DEEP COLD AIR
HOLDS TOUGH TO OUR NE...AND WEST TO SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TRIES TO PUMP HIGHER PWAT AIR NE FROM THE LOWER
MISS AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE COULD
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO EARLY WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SFC LOW FORMING JUST OFF THE COAST
WHICH COULD BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS ON PRECIP TYPE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH RAIN FRIDAY EARLY...BUT SWITCHING TO SNOW AS
THE COLD AIR CREEPS IN. 850 MB TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE -16C TO
-21C RANGE. SO A MIX PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVG SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING WITH
CIGS STAYING AOA 5KFT AGL. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE AIRSPACE.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE
AIRSPACE /HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTIONS AT BFD/JST IN ZOB
SECTOR DUE TO CAA/UPSLOPE/ WITH LOW END VFR PREVAILING IN THE
EASTERN SXNS. DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ALTHOUGH
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN
OVER THE WRN TAFS. GUSTY WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL BECOME THE MAIN
ISSUE INTO TUESDAY WITH FQNT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. LOOK
FOR CLEARING BY LATE TUESDAY ESP DOWNWIND OF THE WRN MTNS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320.

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX.

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1206 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR.  THIS
SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO
UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG
AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF. LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT AFTER 05Z. SO WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT
BRIEF MVFR/FOG AT OGB LATE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
 AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE.  HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VFR THROUGH 16/18Z. SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 621 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
 AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE.  HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH MID MORNING IN VALLEYS WITH LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS...AS CURRENTLY SEEING A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO 30
KTS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 345 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
 AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE.  HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS OF 03Z...VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM KFSD WAS APPROACH 40 KTS AT APPROXIMATELY 1500
FT AGL. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 50 KTS AFTER 06Z. THE
QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET NEAR THE SURFACE AND WHEN.
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX...INCREASE
IN WINDS AT SURFACE WILL BE SLOWER THAN AND LAG INCREASE ALOFT.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD
AND KSUX FROM AROUND 06Z THRU MID MORNING. THE DURATION WILL
DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND BEGIN TO
DECRASE ABOVE 1000 KFT AGL. IT IS POSSIBLE AT KFSD...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE SOONER THAN CURRENT FORECAST BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 13Z.
OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES IN AND WILL EVEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.

STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ900.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ300-301.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ249.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS BECOMING BKN-OVC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL TEND TO ERODE ON THE FRONT END AND PROGRESS
WILL BE SLOW. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR AT KAUS...THOUGH WILL
BE MORE OF BKN-SCT CHARACTER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
REACH KSAT/KSSF EARLY THIS EVENING BY 16/00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH KAUS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCES OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE MENTIONED FOR 16/11Z-16Z.
SOME -RA MAY MOVE UP FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AS CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. N TO NE WINDS 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VRBL
LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SE 4 TO 7 KTS ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE
SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN
BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS
RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL
KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER
TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO
WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER
WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK
REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK
THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE
HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES
FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY
UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS.
/ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR
AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000
TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF
BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY
WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50.

MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA.
THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE
FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE
PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY
QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE
HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL
MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL
BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN
GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO
RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.

WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT`S MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND
POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RAIN EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND
THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  52  70  58  76 /  -   10  20  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  52  70  57  76 /  -   10  20  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  53  71  58  76 /  10  10  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  50  69  57  73 /  -   10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  54  69  57  71 /  -   -   10  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  51  70  58  75 /  -   10  10  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  54  71  58  74 /  10  10  20  20  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  53  72  58  76 /  -   10  20  20  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  54  71  59  77 /  -   10  30  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  54  71  59  75 /  10  10  20  20  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  55  71  58  75 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE
SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN
BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS
RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL
KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER
TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO
WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER
WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK
REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK
THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE
HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES
FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY
UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS.
/ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR
AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000
TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF
BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY
WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50.

MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA.
THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE
FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE
PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY
QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE
HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL
MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL
BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN
GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO
RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.

WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHTS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND POTENTIAL
OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RAIN
EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE. INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES
BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF IN
THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  52  70  58  76 /  -   10  20  20  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  52  70  57  76 /  -   10  20  20  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  53  71  58  76 /  10  10  20  20  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  50  69  57  73 /  -   10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  54  69  57  71 /  -   -   10  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  51  70  58  75 /  -   10  10  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  54  71  58  74 /  10  10  20  20  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  53  72  58  76 /  -   10  20  20  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  54  71  59  77 /  -   10  30  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  54  71  59  75 /  10  10  20  20  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  55  71  58  75 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 513 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. A WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*/ EARLY-HALF OF TUESDAY...

INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A N-STREAM IMPULSE YIELDS DEEP-
LAYER LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF WARM- AND COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OF AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE ACROSS E PA
INTO UPSTATE NY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO S NEW ENGLAND. WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME IN REACHING THE GROUND HAVING TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR. EXPECT A SECOND-ACT OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A FOLLOW-UP COLD FRONT. STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS.

FEEL THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION AND WILL
USE IT AS GUIDANCE TOWARDS POP-TRENDS GOING HIGH-CATEGORICAL. HRRR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE NOT BAD...BUT WILL NOT USE AS
FIRST-ORDER GUIDANCE. WILL BLEND WITH SOME CONSENSUS.

FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WHETHER THE
COLUMN SATURATES COMPLETELY TO THE SURFACE AS THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. BELIEVE
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW-LEVELS WETBULB AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...THOUGH WITH A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT THINKING NOT AS
SUBSTANTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITHIN NESTLED VALLEYS ACROSS N MA WHERE LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED. THINK ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AND
THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE AND HARDLY
NOTICEABLE.

DENSE FOG...LIGHT ONSHORE S/SW-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COMBINED
WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS PRESENTS POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...THE GREATER CHANCE OF WHICH WOULD BE OVER A DEEPER
SNOWPACK AND ACROSS COLDER WATERS. INTUITION LEADS ME TO BELIEVE ANY
FOG WILL BE SHALLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
SOUPY CONDITIONS AROUND THE UPPER-CAPE ADJACENT TO NEAR-SHORE COLDER
WATERS. WORST CONDITIONS AROUND THE MORNING-MIDDAY TIMEFRAME PRIOR
TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

*/ LATER-HALF OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 YIELDS THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WHICH THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN / SNOW SQUALLS.

RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. DECENT SNOW-SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE
BURLINGTON WFO WRF WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED ASCENT OF AN
UNSTABLE PROFILE. IT JUST REMAINS A QUESTION OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND AS TO THE INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY OF WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES RESULTING IN RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PREFER TO STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INDICATING AN ISOLATED THREAT WITH AN EQUAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT WOULD BE ALONG W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES WHEREAS ON THE LEE-
SIDE...DOWNSLOPING WINDS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL.

WIND GUSTS...WILL PREVAIL A HALF-AND-HALF BLEND OF POWER REGRESSION
MIX-DOWN OF WINDS PER BUFKIT PROFILES AND A CONSENSUS BLEND OF WIND
GUST FORECAST GUIDANCE. POWER REGRESSION WAS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
INDICATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS E-COASTAL MA. NEVERTHELESS
THE BLEND YIELDED AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
AND AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA AND RI...STRONGEST ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
50 MPH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE TIP OF CAPE ANN...BUT BEING SO BRIEF
DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINE. COULD ALSO SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEE-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
*/ WEDNESDAY...

DRY COLD AND BLUSTERY. CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS ALOFT YIELDING AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE UP TO H7 ALONG WITH STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL PERSIST THOUGH CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHILE EASING
WINDS.

WIND GUSTS...CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TOWARDS MIDDAY BY WHICH POINT
THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD EXPIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT...BUT
  EXACT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
* MORE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK...DETERIORATES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECTING A BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES ARRIVE IN HOW VARIOUS HIGH LATITUDE SHORTWAVES GET
HANDLED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FLOW AND MOVE SOUTH.
THIS WILL IN TURN PROVIDE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK AND
TIMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TREND OF THE 17/00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH FROM OUR REGION. THE GFS- AND GEFS MEAN-LED
CAMP TAKE THIS STORM SO FAR SOUTH...IT IS DOUBTFUL WE WOULD SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL
CAMP...LED BY THE CMC AND ECMWF...KEEP THIS STORM IN PLAY FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THIS STORY PLAY OUT MANY
TIMES THE PAST TWO MONTHS...AM THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
COVERED THIS WELL...AND DID NOT CHANGE IT SIGNIFICANTLY.

FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR EACH NEXT WEEK...MEANING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN...ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER.



DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ROBUST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY
DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LIKELY SEE 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO BETWEEN -8C AND -4C...SO WITH THE MID-MARCH SUN ONCE
AGAIN IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY THE LOWER-MID 40S.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
WITH THIS STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING...WOULD EXPECT
PRIMARILY A RAIN-CHANGING-TO-SNOW SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL WAY TO
EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL SPRING ARRIVES LATE THIS FRIDAY...THE UPPER
LEVELS DID NOT GET THAT MEMO. THE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON
BAY AREA WILL PUSH A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/SNOWS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

9Z UPDATE...

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR TOWARDS AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND S-WINDS. IFR/LIFR AROUND
THE OUTER-CAPE. IMPROVING TOWARDS EVENING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...40 KTS FOR THE COAST. STRONGEST ON THE OUTER CAPE
AROUND 45 KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CONTINUED BLUSTERY. PERSISTENT NW-WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
FOR THE INTERIOR...40 KTS COASTAL. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN CONCLUDE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. LOW RISK OF
IFR DURING SHRA AND PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EARLY-HALF OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS AHEAD OF WHICH S/SW-WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET THOUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DENSE FOG...LIKELY MORESO ALONG THE SHORES OF THE UPPER-CAPE.

TOWARDS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...NW-WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS. VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVES BUT SEAS BUILD 10-12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE AROUND THE SHORES OF THE
UPPER-CAPE. GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZING
SPRAY HEADLINES AND ALLOW THE DAY-SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY WITH NW-GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THERE
STILL WILL REMAIN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. SEAS STILL ROUGH AROUND
8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NW WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...ROUGH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NEAR 40N/70W LATE SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BUILDING SWELLS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS...THEN SNEAKING INTO THE EASTERN WATERS AS
WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7-8 FT POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK...GALE OR AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 448 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. A WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*/ EARLY-HALF OF TUESDAY...

INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A N-STREAM IMPULSE YIELDS DEEP-
LAYER LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF WARM- AND COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OF AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE ACROSS E PA
INTO UPSTATE NY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO S NEW ENGLAND. WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME IN REACHING THE GROUND HAVING TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR. EXPECT A SECOND-ACT OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A FOLLOW-UP COLD FRONT. STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS.

FEEL THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION AND WILL
USE IT AS GUIDANCE TOWARDS POP-TRENDS GOING HIGH-CATEGORICAL. HRRR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE NOT BAD...BUT WILL NOT USE AS
FIRST-ORDER GUIDANCE. WILL BLEND WITH SOME CONSENSUS.

FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WHETHER THE
COLUMN SATURATES COMPLETELY TO THE SURFACE AS THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. BELIEVE
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW-LEVELS WETBULB AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...THOUGH WITH A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT THINKING NOT AS
SUBSTANTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITHIN NESTLED VALLEYS ACROSS N MA WHERE LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED. THINK ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AND
THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE AND HARDLY
NOTICEABLE.

DENSE FOG...LIGHT ONSHORE S/SW-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COMBINED
WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS PRESENTS POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...THE GREATER CHANCE OF WHICH WOULD BE OVER A DEEPER
SNOWPACK AND ACROSS COLDER WATERS. INTUITION LEADS ME TO BELIEVE ANY
FOG WILL BE SHALLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
SOUPY CONDITIONS AROUND THE UPPER-CAPE ADJACENT TO NEAR-SHORE COLDER
WATERS. WORST CONDITIONS AROUND THE MORNING-MIDDAY TIMEFRAME PRIOR
TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

*/ LATER-HALF OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 YIELDS THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WHICH THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN / SNOW SQUALLS.

RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. DECENT SNOW-SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE
BURLINGTON WFO WRF WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED ASCENT OF AN
UNSTABLE PROFILE. IT JUST REMAINS A QUESTION OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND AS TO THE INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY OF WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES RESULTING IN RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PREFER TO STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INDICATING AN ISOLATED THREAT WITH AN EQUAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT WOULD BE ALONG W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES WHEREAS ON THE LEE-
SIDE...DOWNSLOPING WINDS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL.

WIND GUSTS...WILL PREVAIL A HALF-AND-HALF BLEND OF POWER REGRESSION
MIX-DOWN OF WINDS PER BUFKIT PROFILES AND A CONSENSUS BLEND OF WIND
GUST FORECAST GUIDANCE. POWER REGRESSION WAS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
INDICATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS E-COASTAL MA. NEVERTHELESS
THE BLEND YIELDED AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
AND AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA AND RI...STRONGEST ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
50 MPH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE TIP OF CAPE ANN...BUT BEING SO BRIEF
DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINE. COULD ALSO SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEE-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
*/ WEDNESDAY...

DRY COLD AND BLUSTERY. CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS ALOFT YIELDING AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE UP TO H7 ALONG WITH STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL PERSIST THOUGH CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHILE EASING
WINDS.

WIND GUSTS...CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TOWARDS MIDDAY BY WHICH POINT
THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD EXPIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT...BUT
  EXACT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
* MORE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK...DETERIORATES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECTING A BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES ARRIVE IN HOW VARIOUS HIGH LATITUDE SHORTWAVES GET
HANDLED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FLOW AND MOVE SOUTH.
THIS WILL IN TURN PROVIDE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK AND
TIMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TREND OF THE 17/00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH FROM OUR REGION. THE GFS- AND GEFS MEAN-LED
CAMP TAKE THIS STORM SO FAR SOUTH...IT IS DOUBTFUL WE WOULD SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL
CAMP...LED BY THE CMC AND ECMWF...KEEP THIS STORM IN PLAY FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THIS STORY PLAY OUT MANY
TIMES THE PAST TWO MONTHS...AM THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
COVERED THIS WELL...AND DID NOT CHANGE IT SIGNIFICANTLY.

FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR EACH NEXT WEEK...MEANING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN...ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER.



DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ROBUST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY
DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LIKELY SEE 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO BETWEEN -8C AND -4C...SO WITH THE MID-MARCH SUN ONCE
AGAIN IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY THE LOWER-MID 40S.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
WITH THIS STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING...WOULD EXPECT
PRIMARILY A RAIN-CHANGING-TO-SNOW SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL WAY TO
EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL SPRING ARRIVES THIS SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVELS DID NOT GET THAT MEMO. THE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON
BAY AREA WILL PUSH A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/SNOWS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

9Z UPDATE...

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR TOWARDS AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND S-WINDS. IFR/LIFR AROUND
THE OUTER-CAPE. IMPROVING TOWARDS EVENING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...40 KTS FOR THE COAST. STRONGEST ON THE OUTER CAPE
AROUND 45 KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CONTINUED BLUSTERY. PERSISTENT NW-WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
FOR THE INTERIOR...40 KTS COASTAL. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN CONCLUDE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. LOW RISK OF
IFR DURING SHRA AND PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EARLY-HALF OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS AHEAD OF WHICH S/SW-WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET THOUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DENSE FOG...LIKELY MORESO ALONG THE SHORES OF THE UPPER-CAPE.

TOWARDS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...NW-WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS. VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVES BUT SEAS BUILD 10-12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE AROUND THE SHORES OF THE
UPPER-CAPE. GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZING
SPRAY HEADLINES AND ALLOW THE DAY-SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY WITH NW-GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THERE
STILL WILL REMAIN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. SEAS STILL ROUGH AROUND
8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NW WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...ROUGH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NEAR 40N/70W LATE SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BUILDING SWELLS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS...THEN SNEAKING INTO THE EASTERN WATERS AS
WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7-8 FT POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK...GALE OR AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 424 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATING SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE SE CANADIAN PROVINCES EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC LOW
PRES IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH ARE GRADUALLY FILLING IN DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. JUST
STARTING TO SEE OBS REPORT PCPN SO CHC POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THROUGH
09Z. CHANCES THEN INCREASE DUE TO CONTINUING WAA AND THE
APPROACHING FRONT. HRRR AND RUC WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY AS THEY HAD
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. HIGHEST POPS STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND DECREASING
PERCENTAGES TO THE W.

RAIN ENDS FROM W TO E LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW TO THE NE AND
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH. WE ARE CLOSE TO
WIND ADVSY BUT FALL JUST SHORT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE EXPOSED
AREAS COULD REACH IT.

HIGHS ARE CHALLENGING TODAY. THINK THE MAVS ARE WAY TOO HIGH WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. SO CHOSE TO BLEND THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN...WHICH MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BEING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED BEFORE
FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX DURING WED AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE
PASSED.

DEEP NW FLOW WILL SEND WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW AS WELL.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE N AND W OF THE
AREA...BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 INLAND...LOWER TO MID 20S AT THE COAST...EXCEPT MID
TO UPPER 20S IN THE NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WED WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL
FAST APPROACH ON FRIDAY SPAWNING A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. THERE STILL IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS ENERGY. THIS LEADS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW KEEPING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE EURO AND CMC ARE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THERE
STILL REMAINING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BEING DEPICTED BY THE 00Z
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

COMPLICATED PTYPE FORECAST AS THE COLD AIR SOURCE FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SOME MID LEVEL WARMTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER COMPLICATING THE
PTYPE...HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENT WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES.

THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

RAIN ENDS FROM 14-16Z WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS
BY MIDDAY...AND THEN TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRIDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SN AND RA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE
UPGRADED ALL OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TO A GALE WARNING. WHILE
MIXING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS INDICATED DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS...THE LEVEL OF 35 KT WINDS IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE SOUNDINGS.
THE WARNING BEGINS AT 18Z ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN. HAVE
THE WARNING ENDING AT 10Z TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
CONTINUED ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO WED. IT IS MARGINAL WED MORNING
SO DIDN`T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY FURTHER. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OTHERWISE WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUING.

WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD SCA
LEVELS ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CT...AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LI.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY FALL IN THE FROZEN
STATE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID.

RECENT INCREASED FLOW ON RIVERS/STREAMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...COUPLED WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES...MAY CAUSE ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...SO INTERESTS ALONG
ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 327 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND
WHICH BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO
THURSDAY. A WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*/ EARLY-HALF OF TUESDAY...

INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A N-STREAM IMPULSE YIELDS DEEP-
LAYER LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF WARM- AND COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OF AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE ACROSS E PA
INTO UPSTATE NY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO S NEW ENGLAND. WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME IN REACHING THE GROUND HAVING TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR. EXPECT A SECOND-ACT OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A FOLLOW-UP COLD FRONT. STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS.

FEEL THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION AND WILL
USE IT AS GUIDANCE TOWARDS POP-TRENDS GOING HIGH-CATEGORICAL. HRRR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE NOT BAD...BUT WILL NOT USE AS
FIRST-ORDER GUIDANCE. WILL BLEND WITH SOME CONSENSUS.

FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WHETHER THE
COLUMN SATURATES COMPLETELY TO THE SURFACE AS THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. BELIEVE
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW-LEVELS WETBULB AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...THOUGH WITH A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT THINKING NOT AS
SUBSTANTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITHIN NESTLED VALLEYS ACROSS N MA WHERE LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED. THINK ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AND
THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE AND HARDLY
NOTICEABLE.

DENSE FOG...LIGHT ONSHORE S/SW-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COMBINED
WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS PRESENTS POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...THE GREATER CHANCE OF WHICH WOULD BE OVER A DEEPER
SNOWPACK AND ACROSS COLDER WATERS. INTUITION LEADS ME TO BELIEVE ANY
FOG WILL BE SHALLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
SOUPY CONDITIONS AROUND THE UPPER-CAPE ADJACENT TO NEAR-SHORE COLDER
WATERS. WORST CONDITIONS AROUND THE MORNING-MIDDAY TIMEFRAME PRIOR
TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

*/ LATER-HALF OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 YIELDS THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WHICH THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN / SNOW SQUALLS.

RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. DECENT SNOW-SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE
BURLINGTON WFO WRF WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED ASCENT OF AN
UNSTABLE PROFILE. IT JUST REMAINS A QUESTION OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND AS TO THE INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY OF WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES RESULTING IN RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PREFER TO STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INDICATING AN ISOLATED THREAT WITH AN EQUAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT WOULD BE ALONG W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES WHEREAS ON THE LEE-
SIDE...DOWNSLOPING WINDS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL.

WIND GUSTS...WILL PREVAIL A HALF-AND-HALF BLEND OF POWER REGRESSION
MIX-DOWN OF WINDS PER BUFKIT PROFILES AND A CONSENSUS BLEND OF WIND
GUST FORECAST GUIDANCE. POWER REGRESSION WAS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
INDICATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS E-COASTAL MA. NEVERTHELESS
THE BLEND YIELDED AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
AND AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA AND RI...STRONGEST ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
50 MPH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE TIP OF CAPE ANN...BUT BEING SO BRIEF
DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINE. COULD ALSO SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEE-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

*/ WEDNESDAY...

DRY COLD AND BLUSTERY. CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS ALOFT YIELDING AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE UP TO H7 ALONG WITH STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL PERSIST THOUGH CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHILE EASING
WINDS.

WIND GUSTS...CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TOWARDS MIDDAY BY WHICH POINT
THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD EXPIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT BUT
  EXACT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
* MORE COLD WEATHER LOOKING POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BOTH NOW AND IN THE
FUTURE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIGHT TO BRING BACK THE CONDITIONS THAT
SO DEFINED OUR RECORD/S/ BREAKING SEASON. AO/NAO/EPO ALL TREND
NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PNA LEANING
POSITIVE THANKS TO REX-LIKE BLOCK ACROSS THE NW CONUS.
THEREFORE...STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS DROPPING
BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE MID TERM. BUT WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH...WAIT FOR IT...THE POSSIBILITY TO BOOKEND THIS COLD
SNAP WITH YET ANOTHER COASTAL STORM FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. PER
USUAL...THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE...WILL
PLAY INTO THE THERMAL PROFILES. ENSEMBLES SHOW CLUSTERING INSIDE
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /ESPECIALLY ECENS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES/ WHILE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET ARE ALL OUTSIDE OF THE
BENCHMARK. AT ODDS ARE TWO FACTORS...THE NRN STREAM INITIALIZING
WAVE HAS YET TO BE SAMPLED OVER THE LANDMASS. ALSO...INTERESTING
CUTOFF MITOSIS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN CANADA WITH SOME
ENERGY JOINING THE WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. EXACTLY HOW
THESE JOIN FORCES WILL TAKE SOME MORE TIME TO RESOLVE. FOR
NOW...AND GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IN THE MID TERM...A BLEND OF THE
COOLER/OUTSIDE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WILL BE BLENDED WITH THE
WARMER/NEAR SHORE ENSEMBLES.

DETAILS...

WED AND WED NIGHT...
THAT GOOD OLE WINTER FEEL WE ALL BECAME SO FOND OF RETURNS WITH
VENGEANCE...THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMING TO IGNORE THE FACT IT IS MID
MARCH...AS IT IS WANT TO DO. H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO BETWEEN
-15 AND -18C THROUGH THE DAY. SO IN SPITE OF DECENT MIXING AND
MARCH SUNSHINE...AMBIENT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE 30S. WITH HIGHS MAINLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30. BUT WAIT...THERES MORE...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE
BLUSTERY THANKS TO ROBUST LOW LVL PRES GRADIENT. LIKELY SEE 25-35
MPH WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

THU AND FRI...
HIGH PRES WILL CREST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WITH DRY WX PREVAILING. MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON THU...BUT FEEL MILD
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BY FRI...WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUND TO BETWEEN
-8C AND -4C...SO WITH THE MID MARCH SUN ONCE AGAIN IN PLAY...WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MAINLY THE LOW-MID
40S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAST
EASTWARD SHIFTING SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE W CONUS RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH COLD HUDSON/S BAY CUTOFF WHICH WILL SPLIT
AND SHIFT NEARER TO THE NE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
FORMATION AND THEN DEEPENING OF LOW PRES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...
TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY EARLY SAT AM. THE CENTRAL PRES OF
THIS LOW LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE 990S TO 980S INTO THE DAY ON
SAT. AM NOTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LVL F-GEN/DEFORMATION AND
ATTENDANT OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITE REGIME ALONG THE NE AND NW
QUADS OF THE LOW PRES AS IT PASSES...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL BANDED
SNOW SCENARIO WITHIN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TROWAL. WHILE THIS IS ALL
NEARLY TEXTBOOK...WHAT GIVES...WILL IT BE A SNOWSTORM?

UNCERTAINTY...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE ISSUES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS LOW PRES...SOME SE OF THE BENCHMARK WHILE OTHERS ARE
CLOSER TO POSSIBLY EVEN OVER NANTUCKET. WITH IT BEING MID-LATE
MARCH BY THE TIME THIS STORM ARRIVES...THERMAL PROFILES ARE GOING
TO BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER. IT WOULD TAKE
LESS OF A WARM INTRUSION TO LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGHER
SUN ANGLE. MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LVL NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. WHILE THIS MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS
IS COLDER...AND WOULD LIKELY BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST...IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES SHOW WARMER SOLUTIONS
CLOSER TO THAT OF THE ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...
THIS COULD WELL BE A SCENARIO WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING COMES INTO
PLAY...COUPLED WITH VERY SLIGHT SHIFTS OF THE STORM TRACK. GIVEN
THAT THE BLOCKING HIGH PRES LIES MORE TO THE E OF THE DEEPENING
LOW PRES...IT/S NOT THE GREATEST SETUP TO LOCK IN THE COLD
AIR...WOULD LIKE TO SEE IT MORE TO THE N.

SNOW/RAIN/WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL...
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE...WANT TO STRESS THAT THE
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STAY
TUNED. GIVEN THE WARM AIR LEADS THE STRONGEST OMEGA...IF IT/S
GOING TO BE WARM..IT WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN AND THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITION THROUGH TO SNOW BY THE DAYTIME SAT. PWATS ARE NOT
INCREDIBLY HIGH HERE...AND LOOK TO BE WITHIN 1 STD DEVIATION OF
NORMAL...AS SUCH TOTAL QPF VALUES /AND THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE
LIQUID RAIN AS/IF IT OCCURS/ RANGE MAINLY FROM 0.30 TO ABOUT 0.75
INCHES ON THE UPPER EXTREME. SO PLOWABLE SNOW NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SHOULD IT TRANSITION OR EVEN START AS SNOW EARLIER.

SUN INTO MON...
THE UPPER LVLS ARE NOT DONE YET THOUGH. THE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL PUSH A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/SNOWS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. COLD AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

9Z UPDATE...

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR TOWARDS AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND S-WINDS. IFR/LIFR AROUND
THE OUTER-CAPE. IMPROVING TOWARDS EVENING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...40 KTS FOR THE COAST. STRONGEST ON THE OUTER CAPE
AROUND 45 KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CONTINUED BLUSTERY. PERSISTENT NW-WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
FOR THE INTERIOR...40 KTS COASTAL. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN CONCLUDE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. LOW RISK OF
IFR DURING SHRA AND PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. 25-35 KT NW WINDS LIKELY WED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

EARLY-HALF OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS AHEAD OF WHICH S/SW-WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5-FEET THOUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DENSE FOG...LIKELY MORESO ALONG THE SHORES OF THE UPPER-CAPE.

TOWARDS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...NW-WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS. VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVES BUT SEAS BUILD 10-12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE AROUND THE SHORES OF THE
UPPER-CAPE. GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZING
SPRAY HEADLINES AND ALLOW THE DAY-SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY WITH NW-GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THERE
STILL WILL REMAIN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. SEAS STILL ROUGH AROUND
8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NW WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...ROUGH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH ON THU...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL PASS NEAR 40N/70W LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF BUILDING SWELLS FIRST ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS THEN
SNEAKING INTO THE E WATERS AS WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7-8 FT
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...GALE OR AT THE
VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ230-233>235-237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ231-250-251-254.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 324 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Today, strong low-level CAA will cause a surface ridge of high
pressure across SD early this morning to expand southeast across the
central plains into northeast KS and northern MO. The pressure
gradient between the surface ridge across the northern plains and an
area low pressure across southern OK has caused north-northeast
winds to range from 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts to around 45 MPH,
especially across north central KS. The stronger winds will continue
this morning but should gradually diminish under 20 MPH during the
late afternoon hours as the surface ridge builds southeast across
the central plains into the mid MS river valley. Highs Today will be
cooler with lower to mid 50s across the northern counties and mid to
upper 50s across the southern counties.

Tonight, a closed upper low across southwest TX will fill into an
open wave and lift northeast into southwest OK by 12Z WED. As the
surface ridge of high pressure shifts east into the Great Lakes
states, southerly winds at 850mb will begin to advect richer
moisture northward across OK. After 6Z the isentropic lift across
east central KS will increase. All the model forecast soundings show
a dry layer between the surface and 875mb, which must saturate
before any measurable precip moves north into the southern counties
of the CWA. At this time I kept most of the CWA dry with a small
sliver across southern Coffey and Anderson county for a slight
chance for showers or sprinkles towards 12Z WED. Overnight lows will
range from around 30 degrees along the NE border where skies will be
clear for most of the night, to the upper 30s across the southeast
counties. After 300 AM temperatures across east central KS may
remain steady or slowly rise as weak WAA develops.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

By Wednesday morning, models are in good agreement with showing a
mid-level shortwave trough centered over the Texas panhandle and
shifting east northeastward through Wednesday night. While the main
wave should remain just south of the forecast area, models continue
to show a chance for light rain extending northward over the
southeastern half of the forecast area as isentropic lift increases.
These light rain showers should diminish from west to east Wednesday
night before the next approaching shortwave trough moves into the
Northern Plains and extends into the Central Plains on Thursday.
This second wave may bring another chance for a few passing rain
showers Thursday into Thursday evening across the southern half of
the forecast area.  However, models are still uncertain with the
precipitation chances over the forecast area as they continue to
show the better chances being focused west and south of the forecast
area.  With mostly cloudy skies in place from these two passing
waves, expect temperatures Wednesday and Thursday to be near or
slightly below the seasonal normals with highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s and lows in the 30s.

Expect dry conditions Friday into Sunday as surface high pressure
advances into the area behind the exiting shortwave trough. Have
trended a few degrees warmer for temperatures with highs reaching
into the upper 60s/low 70s. By Saturday, models show a mid-level
trough advancing into the Pacific Northwest, moving over the Rockies
on Sunday, and potentially developing a weak embedded shortwave just
ahead of the main trough. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of low pressure from the Rockies southeastward into Oklahoma
and Texas with a weak boundary potentially extending northward
toward the area. The GFS is much more aggressive with the potential
for precipitation across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday,
while the ECMWF keeps the precipitation primarily focused to the
south and west. Due to this model uncertainty, only have slight to
low-end chance PoPs in for Sunday night through Monday night.
Temperatures should drop back down near the seasonal normals for
Sunday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and slightly cooler
still for Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

Strong cold front will sweep through the area with gusty northeast
winds expected through at least 21z Tuesday. There will be a
narrow axis of moisture and associated stratocumulus cloud that
also move through the area between 06z and 12z. At this point
based off of satellite...obs and fcst soundings it does not
appear to be sufficient to warrant tempo or prevailing MVFR CIGS
and will continue to carry VFR through the fcst.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Most of the area will be under a very high fire danger today. The
mixing depth of the boundary layer this afternoon will increase to
875mb-900mb during the afternoon hours. Most areas will see minimum
RH`s drop to 25 to 30 percent during the afternoon. The northern and
western counties of the CWA will see RH`s drop to 20 to 25 percent
with some areas dipping as low as 18 percent. I used the advance
research WRF model to populate dewpoints. The RAP model looked too
low for dewpoints this afternoon but if other mesoscale models begin
to converge towards the RUC solutions, then dewpoints and RH`s will
have to be adjusted downward. The sustained winds should drop below
20 MPH and gusts less than 25 MPH through he afternoon hours across
the north and western counties of the CWA, thus red flag criteria
should not be met. However, the low RH and dry fuels combined with
winds just under red flag criteria will cause any control burns to
become out of controlled wild fires. Once again all schedule burning
today should be postponed.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Omitt
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

Latest satellite water vapor loop shows southern stream upper low
spinning over Baja while a northern stream trough moves across the
Canadian Prairies. An upper level ridge extends from the gulf coast
into Nebraska. A surface cold front stretched from southern
Minnesota to near Scotts Bluff Nebraska at 19Z. Dew points have
dropped into the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon with relative
humidity ranging from around 10 percent in north central Kansas to
the teens across much of northeast and east central Kansas. Expect
extreme fire danger to continue into the early evening hours as
currently forecast. Once again the RAP has been the best performer
with regards to dew points and have used into the mid evening hours.

Tonight the cold front will move south into north central Kansas
this evening, then proceed south across the rest of the area through
the night. Winds will be gusty from the north with sustained speeds
around 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph with a tight pressure
gradient present behind the front. Lows tonight will cool into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As the surface high moves east and south
through the day on Tuesday gusty northeast winds will be on the
decrease in the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Cold advection Tuesday will lead to highs around normal for mid
March with readings in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

.Tuesday Night thru Thursday...

The remnants of the cutoff low in the TX Big Bend will begin to
eject northeastward into the south central plains Tuesday night. As
it does...moisture/warm air advection will spread northeastward into
the cwa with increasing chances of rain late in the night into
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be in the middle to upper 30s
across the south.

Models are in fair agreement on keeping pops mainly across the
southeast half of the county warning area during the day Wednesday
before the shortwave trough passes off to the east and southeast of
the cwa Wednesday night. Will only leave a slight chance for rain in
the far southeast corner. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s.

On Thursday boundary stalls to the south of the cwa...however the
next upstream shortwave trough will be approaching through the day
and have left a slight chance for rain across the southeast half of
the cwa as the NAM and GEM models still develop some rain north of
the front...although the GFS and EC are drier with precip further
south. Highs Thursday with the clouds...northeast winds and precip
chances should be limited to the middle to upper 50s.

.Thursday Night thru Monday...

By Friday afternoon, a split flow pattern begins to set up with a
cut off low situated over the Baja Peninsula and a northern stream
ridge axis over Idaho.  This southern system will continue to move
west throughout Saturday, and will allow warm air advection to take
place due to a strong upper level jet streaming in warmer air from
the southwest. A north/south thermal axis on Saturday sets up
highs in the mid 60s to the north transitioning to the lower 70s
to the south.

Highs Sunday will be cooler as a colder airmass to the north skims
the Kansas/Nebraska boarder. After Sunday, models tend to disagree with
how to handle the next wave moving out of the Rockies. As of now,
have a slight chance for precipitation Monday, but this could
change with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

Strong cold front will sweep through the area with gusty northeast
winds expected through at least 21z Tuesday. There will be a
narrow axis of moisture and associated stratocumulus cloud that
also move through the area between 06z and 12z. At this point
based off of satellite...obs and fcst soundings it does not
appear to be sufficient to warrant tempo or prevailing MVFR CIGS
and will continue to carry VFR through the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller/63
AVIATION...Omitt







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST W-E FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR
RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A CLOSED H5 LO MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY. A
PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND IN THE RRQ OF 160KT
H3 JET MAX WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN IS
GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RA STRETCHING FM NRN MN THRU UPR MI
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z
INL/MPX/GRB RAOBS. DRYING ALF AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT IS CAUSING
THE PCPN OVER NRN MN TO DIMINISH STEADILY. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM
15C AT MPX AND ABERDEEN SDAKOTA TO -12C AT THE PAS MANITOBA.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO POPS/DRYING
TREND/PTYPE AS UPSTREAM SHRTWVS/COLD FNT PROPAGATE TO THE ESE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW TNGT/TUE IN THE NW FLOW E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN UNDER DYNAMIC
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT AND BAND OF FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE CWA. WITH BAND OF FGEN
AND SOMEWHAT HIER H85 DEWPTS CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...EXPECT THE
LOWER POPS/RA TOTALS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER/DRIER LLVL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA MAY ALLOW THE
PCPN TO MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE N BEFORE
VIGOROUS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE AND END THE PCPN NW TO SE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CLDS IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUP...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOCLR WITH THE VIGOROUS
DRYING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LO AS THE MID TEENS OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W HALF PER FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR -14C
AND UPSTREAM OBS THIS MRNG.

TUE...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG NW FLOW OF COLD AIR TO THE
E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES...ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW/DRYNESS OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS/INVERTED V LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL T/TD PROFILES
AND LINGERING LK ICE WL LIMIT LES POPS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF IS FCST TO SWEEP THRU NRN ONTARIO...BUT PASSAGE OF
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE N AND DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NE LK SUP
AND IN AREAS E OF MUNISING THAT WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. BUT EVEN HERE...NO MORE THAN SCHC
POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. THE COMBINATION OF H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35
KTS...CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS.
GOING FCST HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LO 30S NEAR LK SUP TO THE LO 40S
OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SEEM REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S MND IA AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AND
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED S OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND S
MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THIS FEATURE TO PUSH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE N TIER
COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS TO
FAR E ONTARIO DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW FAR N.

YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO SIDE IN FROM THE NW FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS COLDER AIR INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL TO AROUND -16 TO -21C /LOWEST N/ BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON STEADY N TO NW WINDS. SFC HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT TO THE E SUNDAY EVENING...WITH 850MB
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -11 TO -13C FOR MONDAY...AS WINDS BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE W AND ANY LINGERING LES DIMINISHES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF HIGH PRES MOVING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD. WITH COLDER AIR ALSO FLOWING INTO THE AREA...LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ADD A LITTLE MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD YIELD SCT TO BKN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUDS BASES WILL BE AOA
3500FT. EXPECT GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY UNDER
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL BE COMMON). WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND ON TUE UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A MARGINAL GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER
MAINLY THE E HALF...BUT MENTIONED ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST
OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 350 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Significantly cooler temperatures are anticipated in the wake of a
strong cold front which swept through the region early this morning;
however, highs are still expected to reach or even slightly exceed
their seasonal normals in the mid to possibly upper 50s. Surface
high pressure will then build late Tuesday night, allowing temps to
drop to or below freezing by early Wednesday morning. Wildfire danger
is not expected to be as high this afternoon as in previous days, since
NNE winds will begin to diminish by the time RH drops this afternoon.
However, a period of RH less than 30% and NNE winds greater than 10
mph is expected across northwest MO and northeast KS this afternoon,
elevating the fire danger.

A shortwave trough is still progged to lift northeastward into the
region Wednesday afternoon, spreading the potential for light rain
showers across the southern and especially southeastern half of the
CWA. Measurable precipitation will likely hold off until afternoon,
due to the fairly significant dry air that will have to be overcome
before precipitation begins to fall, and amounts should be at most a
few tenths of an inch across central MO, tapering to just a few
hundredths by the MO River. Cooler air filtering in under the upper
trough and cloud cover/evaporative cooling associated with any rain
showers will make Wednesday the coolest day in the forecast period,
with highs remaining in the lower to mid 50s.

As the upper trough exits the region, warmer temperatures will begin
again by Thursday and continue into to build into the end of the
work week, bringing highs back into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday. A few rain chances are also possible this weekend as upper
level flow flattens and allows a few weak disturbances to wash
through the area this weekend, but timing and amounts are difficult
to image at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

A strong cold front is rapidly pushing south through the terminals
currently. Winds behind the front will increase to between 15 to 20
kts sustained with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. There may also be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings several hours behind the front.
Upstream observations show sporadic ~2k ft AGL clouds in northeastern
NE and northern IA. The RAP seems to depict this area reasonably well
and it slides everything to south late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Winds will remain strong through much of the day and then
begin to decrease late tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Significantly cooler temperatures are anticipated in the wake of a
strong cold front which swept through the region early this morning;
however, highs are still expected to reach or even slightly exceed
their seasonal normals in the mid to possibly upper 50s. Surface
high pressure will then build late Tuesday night, allowing temps to
drop to or below freezing by early Wednesday morning. Fire danger is
not anticipated today, since north northeast winds will begin to
diminish by the time RH drops below 30% this afternoon.

A shortwave trough is still progged to lift northeastward into the
region Wednesday afternoon, spreading the potential for light rain
showers across the southern and especially southeastern half of the
CWA. Measurable precipitation will likely hold off until afternoon,
due to the fairly significant dry air that will have to be overcome
before precipitation begins to fall, and amounts should be at most a
few tenths of an inch across central MO, tapering to just a few
hundredths by the MO River. Cooler air filtering in under the upper
trough and cloud cover/evaporative cooling associated with any rain
showers will make Wednesday the coolest day in the forecast period,
with highs remaining in the lower to mid 50s.

As the upper trough exits the region, warmer temperatures will begin
again by Thursday and will continue to build into the end of the
work week, bringing highs back into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday. A few rain chances are also possible this weekend as upper
level flow flattens and allows a few weak disturbances to wash
through the area this weekend, but potential rainfall amounts look
low at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

A strong cold front is rapidly pushing south through the terminals
currently. Winds behind the front will increase to between 15 to 20
kts sustained with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. There may also be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings several hours behind the front.
Upstream observations show sporadic ~2k ft AGL clouds in northeastern
NE and northern IA. The RAP seems to depict this area reasonably well
and it slides everything to south late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Winds will remain strong through much of the day and then
begin to decrease late tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...CDB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

Immediate concern is with fire weather through very early evening.
See Fire Weather section below for details.

Overnight we will see a marked temperature change as a cold front
drops southward through northern and central MO. Strong and gusty
northerly winds will spread strong cold air advection through the
region. Expect Tuesday temperatures to be about 30 degrees colder
than todays record setting temperatures. Fortunately much of the
cloud cover behind the front is expected to think out so we should
see a good deal of sunshine to compensate for the cool down. Have to
realize that high temperatures tomorrow will actually be near
seasonal averages.

Satellite imagery shows where our next weather maker will come from.
A cutoff low off the southern tip of Baja California is expected to
lift north over the next 36-48 hours. As it moves into TX on
Wednesday it will encounter increasingly strong northwesterly flow
from the Dakotas through the TN Valley. This should shunt the bulk
of the energy eastward on Wednesday. As this system lifts northward
the southerly flow ahead of it will spread warm/moist air northward
and over a retreating area of high pressure. The resulting
isentropic ascent/warm air advection will generate an area of rain.
Question is how far north will the precipitation shield reach. Model
trends have been gradually shifting the northward extension further
south as well as delaying its arrival. This seems reasonable and
will keep the CWA dry Tuesday night. Best chance for any rain on
Wednesday/Wednesday night is south of the MO River. Even then the
rain amounts will remain on the light side.

Thursday`s PoPs remain uncertain owing to a shortwave trough
dropping southeast through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Current model solutions generate precipitation that will pass just
north of the CWA. However, all of the operational models also depict
a weaker feature that ejects eastward from CO which could linger
rain over the CWA.

Rising heights spreading eastward across the Central Plains on
Friday should allow for another shot of warming that could linger
into Saturday.

From the weekend on the medium range models are trending colder as a
back door cold front is ushered in from the Upper MS Valley in
response to falling heights as an upper trough deepens over the
eastern U.S. Some concern the model blend being used is unable to
account for this, possibly because of the bias correction that is
used. So, overall confidence on the temperature forecast for Sunday
and Monday is low and won`t be surprised if future forecasts will
have to lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

A strong cold front is rapidly pushing south through the terminals
currently. Winds behind the front will increase to between 15 to 20
kts sustained with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range. There may also be a
brief period of MVFR ceilings several hours behind the front.
Upstream observations show sporadic ~2k ft AGL clouds in northeastern
NE and northern IA. The RAP seems to depict this area reasonably well
and it slides everything to south late tonight through early Tuesday
morning. Winds will remain strong through much of the day and then
begin to decrease late tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

Southwest winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will continue
through 23Z and combine with RH values between 10 and 25 percent to
maintain very high to extreme fire weather for all but the far
southern CWA. The driest conditions will be along and northwest of
I-35, where RH values will be around 10 percent. Outdoor burning is strongly
discouraged as any fire that ignites will have the necessary
ingredients, including very dry grasses and brush piles, to spread
very quickly and become out of control. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for all but the far southeastern CWA until 8pm this evening.

Conditions will improve rapidly after sunset as the winds quickly
subside and relative humidity levels increase.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB
FIRE WEATHER...MJ







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 233 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPAN FROM
MONTANA TO CALIFORNIA. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AND THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FRONTS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST SONDING FROM ELKO
HAS A PW .44 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 159 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPAN ACROSS THE LKN CWA...WITH
KLRX PINGING INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
HUMBOLDT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER EACH RUN. AT PRESENT THE HRRR IS DRIER
THAN THE GFS WITH TODAYS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS
FIRST STORM AS THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS HAD BEEN DESSICATED. THE
LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF WILL GO TO THE SHELDON NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST A HIGH OF 62F IN ELKO
AND 65F IN WINNEMUCCA...THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
RESPECTIVELY IS 52F AND 56F.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE DEPTH
AND OF A SHORTWAVE LOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. AN EXTREMELY POSITIVE-TILT PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE FRIDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS
A SHORTWAVE FEATURE BRUSHES NORTHERN NEVADA. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA HOWEVER THE ECWMF MODEL
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING TROUGH LATE SUNDAY THAT WOULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA INCLUDING WHITE PINE COUNTY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE NOTION OF GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC FOR NOW.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP AS LOW AS 6500 FEET AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP
THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE SO THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FEATURE APPROACHING WESTERN HUMBOLDT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEVADA TODAY.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY
AND KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE KWMC ASOS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE TAF WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED AS AMD NOT SKED.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 352 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND IT. A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA WILL SPEND ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN A WARM AIR MASS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BEFORE THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF
WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMES TO AN END. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT WAYNE TO TOLEDO.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THETA-E AND WIND PLOTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ON
RECENT NAM/RAP RUNS...THE FRONT IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED AT 925MB.
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
ALMOST NO DECREASE...WITH GUSTY WSW FLOW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE THE
FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TYPICAL TIME
PERIOD OF THE LARGEST DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THERE
WILL NOT BE A TYPICAL DIURNAL TRACE FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS
ALSO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH STEADILY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER THAN A CURVE...THE
TEMPERATURE TRACE TODAY MAY END UP LIKE MORE OF A ZIG-ZAG...WITH
VALUES THAT MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING (BUT POSSIBLY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS).

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO
SPEAK OF. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE (WHICH IS NOT
VERY EXPANSIVE TO BEGIN WITH) IS SITUATED WELL BEHIND THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONT. BASED ON HRRR RUNS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS (FROM
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS)...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 12Z-15Z (AND THIS MAY
NOT EVEN OCCUR).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY
COLDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO PLACE...PROVIDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND THUS NO REASON
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF THE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
THUS...THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
GENERALLY SLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE WETTER AND
CLOUDIER.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY FROM
WHAT PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE IS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT...WHICH STILL REMAINS VARIABLE FROM MODEL TO MODEL. IN
GENERAL...THE ECMWF HAS ALLOWED FOR THE GREATEST NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION (COVERING A MUCH WIDER SWATH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA)
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH (LEAVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY). A GFS SOLUTION IS NOT A BAD COMPROMISE...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THINGS GET SLIGHTLY MORE
COMPLICATED GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM...PIVOTING
THINGS INTO A DIRECTION OF NORTHEASTERLY TRAVEL. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING
FOR A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ILN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND
13Z. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE IF ANY IS EXPECTED.
BIGGEST CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PERHAPS
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS LOW AS IFR. I AM NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS
GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY OF THE MODELS OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CEILINGS WILL
DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 2000
FEET. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KLUK WHICH IS A LOWER ELEVATION AIRPORT.
THUS...WILL FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD IN THE LATER PART
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED AND RETURN TO
VFR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND NIGHTFALL DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 111 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING AND REACH NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
THE LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEW GUIDANCE COMING IN HAS REALLY
BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
LIMIT THE MENTION OVERNIGHT TO FAR NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN THERE
HAVE LOWERED CHANCES SLIGHTLY. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. BOTH THE LATEST HRRR
AND RUC SHOW LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGE
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.


CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RADAR
SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING AS WELL. INITIALLY BELIEVE MUCH OF THIS
IS ALOFT BUT EVENTUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES ACROSS NERN OHIO AND
NWRN PA. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM CLEVELAND TO YOUNGSTOWN
AND CHANCE NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE. THROUGH LATE EVENING AM
EXPECTING A BREAK IN PRECIP AS BEST LIFT MOVES EAST AND WHILE COLD
FRONT IS STILL TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE
AGAIN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE. WILL
WORK UP TO LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS NWRN PA LATE WHILE
CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE SHOULD BE GOOD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE TRICKY THAN THE ACTUAL
LOWS WITH EVENING TEMPS DROPPING OFF SLOWLY IN THE WARM ADVECTION
AND INCREASING CLOUDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD THEN DROP OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF IN THE NEAR TERM FOR TIMING OF MOISTURE AND THE COLD
FRONT. BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
WITH THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST.
WILL BEGIN THE DAY WITH CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN
OHIO. WILL GO WITH LIKELY IN NWRN PA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. POPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE LAKE
STILL MOSTLY FROZEN NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR
PRECIP OFF THE LAKE IN THE COLD ADVECTION. SO WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
BREAK/THIN AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY AIR. MODELS BRING A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO NWRN PA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WHILE STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH LIGHT SNOW IN THE GRAPHICS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT DRY AND COOL.
THURSDAY MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES IN
DECENT OVERRUNNING. MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE REACHES INTO THE AREA
BUT NOT BEFORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY...FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. WE ARE WATCHING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD SNEAK A STRAY
SHOWER INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

BY THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
CANADA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH 50 DEGREES
WHILE NORTHERN LOCATIONS REACH HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THEN
START TO FALL. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS NW-N AT 15G25KT WITH MVFR CIGS
AND PATCHY IFR CIGS. PRECIP WISE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
SPRINKLES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR EXCEPT IN EXTREME
EAST BY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND PULL
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 337 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TWO CONCERNS THIS MORNING... FIRST REMAINS FIRE WEATHER FOR ONGOING
CONTAINMENT OF BOILING SPRINGS FIRE IN NORTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY.
SECOND... RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING... THE COLD FRONT STARTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NWRN OK THIS
MORNING AROUND 2-230AM CDT. THROUGH 3AM THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIND
SHIFT HAS JUST CLEARED THE BOILING SPRINGS FIRE LOCATION. AS THE
WINDS SHIFTED AND MIXING INCREASED... IT WAS EVIDENT FROM IR SAT AND
RADAR THAT THE FIRE FLARED UP FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR... SMOKE
PLUME ON RADAR QUICKLY DISAPPEARED AS CREWS GOT IT BACK UNDER
CONTROL. BIG CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. UP
STREAM... WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SERN KS HAVE REMAINED
GUSTY... SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH WINDS THIS AM... CHECKING SOUNDINGS...
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MIXING ACROSS NWRN OK TO GET N/NE WINDS SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL RELAX ONLY SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNRISE... REMAINING BREEZY AND OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE AFTN. RH
VALUES WILL BE BETTER FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE MID 30S IN NWRN OK AND 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE REST OF OK INTO
NRN TX.

AS FOR RAIN... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. INCREASED
POPS THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY AFTER 18/00Z (7 PM CDT). A
FASCINATING SYSTEM... WHICH HAS REMAINED PARKED OVER WRN MX/SRN BAJA
THE PAST FEW DAYS... IT IS BRINGING SOME IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WITH IT
INTO THE REGION. WATCHING WV THIS MORNING... THE H500 LOW LOOKS TO
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE... SLOWLY STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
NWRN MEXICO. ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... PWATS FROM 17/00Z SOUNDINGS
LAST NIGHT ARE ALL IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE... WITH NEAR 1.00 IN OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/TRANS PECOS REGION THIS EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO NRN TX WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
WELL SATURATED COLUMNS AND GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE
TO MAKE THIS AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS PALTRY AND CONFINED TO THE RED RIVER REGION...
ALSO LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN STELLAR... SO MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS TEXOMA LATE TUE/EARLY WED AND AGAIN WED AFTN. NO
SEVERE STORMS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WED. STILL
ANTICIPATE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.25IN IN NRN OK... FROM 0.10 TO
0.30 ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX... WITH HIGHER TOTALS EAST AND
SOUTH OF I-44... ANYWHERE FROM A HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.

EXPECT A LULL LATE WED/EARLY THU... WITH RAIN CHANCES STEADILY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THU... PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN OK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS OUR NEXT
H500 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW U.S. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO A
HALF INCH IN FAR NWRN OK TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OK AND NRN TX IS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI AM.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND WARM... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  45  57  44 /  10 100  70  30
HOBART OK         63  42  59  44 /  10  70  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  48  63  47 /  20  90  20  10
GAGE OK           54  36  60  38 /  10  30  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  42  50  38 /  10  70  90  30
DURANT OK         77  54  61  49 /  20  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 604 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 09Z SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PA IN ASSOC WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET.
LATEST 4KM NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF RAIN RAPIDLY SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET. TRAILING COLD
FRONT...ENTERING NW PA AT 09Z...WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES BY NOON.

SCT SHRA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA BTWN 12Z-16Z...WITH
MEASURABLE AMTS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE N MTNS BY ARND 15Z. HOWEVER...QPF SO LGT AND SFC TEMPS
MARGINAL...SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.

TODAY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN MIXING
TO THE SFC IN WAKE OF CDFRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS FROM LATE AM THRU EARLY EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD REVERSE THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP
TREND...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. AFTER A MILD START...READINGS BY
DUSK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L40S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR BUT CHILLY WX. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID WINTER AGAIN TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UTEENS AND
L20S. AN ACCOMPANYING NWRLY BREEZE WILL CREATE WCHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY FROZEN LKS ERIE AND
HURON...SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY. ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE
L30S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M40S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. DEEPENING
BLYR DEPTH SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BY AFTN OF ARND
25KTS...ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WX...LGT WIND AND STILL COOL CONDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES OVR PA. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU THE REGION. GEFS/ECENS BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW REMAINS WEAK AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC LOW AND HIGH OFF THE NEW ENG
COAST...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING FOR A
LIGHT TO MOD PRECIP EVENT. ATTM...GEFS PLUMES AND MEAN 8H 0C
ISOTHERM IN ECENS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY PTYPE IS SNOW. ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE S TIER.

A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC
COAST. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN NOW EXITING THE FAR ERN AIRSPACE ATTM. STILL
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS STAYING AOA 5KFT AGL IN
MOST AREAS. CALM WINDS MAY PROMOTE PERIOD OF MVFR VIS OVER THE ERN
TAFS UNTL GRADIENT FLOW PICKS UP TOWARD DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE LOWERING CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z IN THE WEST AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE /HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN REDUCTIONS AT BFD/JST IN ZOB SECTOR DUE TO
CAA AND UPSLOPE/ WITH LOW END VFR PREVAILING IN THE EASTERN SXNS.
DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ESPECIALLY E OF THE MTNS.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX/CHANGEOVER TO -SHSN
OVER THE WRN TAFS EARLY TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL
BECOME THE MAIN ISSUE THRU TUESDAY WITH FQNT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE. LOOK FOR CLEARING BY LATE AFTN ESP DOWNWIND OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320.

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX.

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT WITH TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SATURATION ONGOING IN THE COLUMN. FIRST IS ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEARLY SATURATED AS WELL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED...ALL THAT REMAINS IS THE MID LEVELS
WHICH REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB RH
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SATURATION AT 700 MB FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 16Z.

NOW WE KNOW WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WILL OCCUR...THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE DEEP LIFT ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AND HOW LONG THE LIFTING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF BAJA
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME MODELS WHICH
MOVED THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR DEL RIO WHILE SOME MOVED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS. A 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
GIVES US A GOOD IDEA ON THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NNW INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS HAD SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
WHICH INDICATES THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OR BUILDING
WEST. UPPER AIR SITES IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 HEIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD WANT TO GO. MOST IF NOT ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION IS SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE NNE THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW- LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL INITIALLY FALL
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND I-35/37 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
ONCE THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...THIS ZONE OF N-S LIFT WILL BE SLOW
TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL SLOWLY DO SO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR. WILL
SHOW THIS EXPECTED PROGRESSION IN THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST...THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED VORT MAX ROTATING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS/NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY OUR ONLY
CLUE TO THIS FEATURE WOULD BE LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN ENHANCEMENT CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THIS IS WHAT THE
ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING AND THAT IS INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO WARRANT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. WEAK LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WHERE THE ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WITH A BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS REGENERATION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
TOTALS COULD GO UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO. THIS AREA DID NOT
SEE AS MUCH WITH THE LAST EVENT AND CAN EASILY TAKE THESE TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR
POSSIBLE EASTWARD SHIFT WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN TO AREA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PERIOD WILL SERVE AS
A TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LOWS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT THIS FOCUS WILL QUICKLY BE LOST AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE THE 850 FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
AND THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LIFT LEADING TO A
BAND OF HEAVIER TOTALS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS REGARDING WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AS
WELL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH THIS SECOND EVENT BUT SOME
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND
WHERE. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD PRIMARILY BE TO RIVERS FROM
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS. CAPE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL...BUT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED.

RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  59  73  60  76 /  60  70  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  73  60  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  60  75  60  76 /  80  80  60  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  57  72  58  75 /  60  70  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  58  77  60  81 /  50  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  59  72  59  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  59  75  60  78 /  80  70  50  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  60  74  60  76 /  60  80  60  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  62  73  62  75 /  40  60  60  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  60  74  61  76 /  80  80  50  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  60  75  62  77 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 815 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WILL INCREASE
FORECAST SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. SLOW MOVING PLUME OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOME
DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS. AREAS ABOVE 9000 FEET, INCLUDING AROUND MAMMOTH AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON PRIMARY HIGHWAYS.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. REST OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL UNTIL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN BRIEFLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY NORTH OF I-80 ALONG THE
TAIL END OF AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE THAT CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, LOW CHANCES OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER COULD
OCCUR FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A WEAK UPPER LOW
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS BAGGY TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, BUT FORCING MECHANISMS ARE WEAK,
RELYING MAINLY ON SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR CELL INITIATION. ALSO,
UPDRAFTS IN ANY CELLS THAT DO FORM WILL NOT BE STRONG AND PRONE TO
COLLAPSING ONCE CELLS MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR SOURCE. THE PRIMARY MODE
WILL BE GENERAL VARIETY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. THESE MOTIONS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND OUT OF THE SIERRA FRONT.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND
MID/UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY; COULD SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS, UP TO 20 MPH, IN SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY
WHICH TYPICALLY RESPONDS TO NORTHERLY WINDS. BENIGN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH A ZONAL, PROGRESSIVE FLOW
WITH THE JET MORE INTO OREGON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HAVE
ALL TRENDED DRIER OVERALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEY ARE NOW
TAKING THE SYSTEMS MORE INTO WA/OR WITH MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN
WINDS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

THE FIRST SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS MOVING INTO
OREGON WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT PENETRATING MUCH INTO CA/NV. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND POPS BACK WITH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
CONFINED NORTH OF I-80. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME, BUT IT WILL BE
BREEZY AT MOST WIND THE STRONGEST WINDS AT 700 MB, AND THEN ONLY
30-35 KTS, ARRIVE 06-12Z. GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FRIDAY AND COOL
5-10 DEGREES SAT, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME RIDGING SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUED COOLER TEMPS
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH IT SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE ARRIVAL OF ANY PRECIP TO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN DO NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG WITH PEAK
GUSTS 30-35 MPH IN THE VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE COLDER IF IT
COMES IN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE
MODELS INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH, WILL WAIT AND SEE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
EXITING AFTER 20Z. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF
KSVE-GERLACH BUT STILL EXPECT CIGS TO BE AOA 4 KFT UNTIL SHOWERS END
BY 20Z. WINDS TO BE SW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A 30 PCT CHANCE OF
SHALLOW FZFG AT KTRK AFT 10Z. WALLMANN

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 732 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR AND RAP TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. HIGHEST POPS SHIFT TO SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LIGHT RAIN IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE SE CANADIAN PROVINCES EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC LOW
PRES IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW TO THE NE AND STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH. WE ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVSY BUT
FALL JUST SHORT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS COULD
REACH IT.

HIGHS ARE CHALLENGING TODAY. THINK THE MAVS ARE WAY TOO HIGH WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. SO CHOSE TO BLEND THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN...WHICH MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BEING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED BEFORE
FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX DURING WED AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE
PASSED.

DEEP NW FLOW WILL SEND WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW AS WELL.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE N AND W OF THE
AREA...BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 INLAND...LOWER TO MID 20S AT THE COAST...EXCEPT MID
TO UPPER 20S IN THE NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WED WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL
FAST APPROACH ON FRIDAY SPAWNING A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. THERE STILL IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS ENERGY. THIS LEADS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW KEEPING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE EURO AND CMC ARE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THERE
STILL REMAINING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BEING DEPICTED BY THE 00Z
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

COMPLICATED PTYPE FORECAST AS THE COLD AIR SOURCE FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SOME MID LEVEL WARMTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER COMPLICATING THE
PTYPE...HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENT WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES.

THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...AND
LOCAL IFR CONDS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

RAIN ENDS FROM 14-16Z WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS
LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT AND FOR
STRENGTH OF WINDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT AND FOR
STRENGTH OF WINDS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT AND FOR
STRENGTH OF WINDS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND FOR STRENGTH OF WINDS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND FOR STRENGTH OF WINDS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND FOR STRENGTH OF WINDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRIDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SN AND RA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE
UPGRADED ALL OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TO A GALE WARNING. WHILE
MIXING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS INDICATED DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS...THE LEVEL OF 35 KT WINDS IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE SOUNDINGS.
THE WARNING BEGINS AT 18Z ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN. HAVE
THE WARNING ENDING AT 10Z TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
CONTINUED ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO WED. IT IS MARGINAL WED MORNING
SO DIDN`T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY FURTHER. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OTHERWISE WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUING.

WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD SCA
LEVELS ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CT...AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LI.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY FALL IN THE FROZEN
STATE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID.

RECENT INCREASED FLOW ON RIVERS/STREAMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...COUPLED WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES...MAY CAUSE ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...SO INTERESTS ALONG
ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...24/DS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS
HYDROLOGY...24/DS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 729 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. A WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS AROUND FREEZING...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ICING THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE TOO SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED TO
WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*/ EARLY-HALF OF TUESDAY...

INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF A N-STREAM IMPULSE YIELDS DEEP-
LAYER LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF WARM- AND COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OF AN ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE ACROSS E PA
INTO UPSTATE NY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO S NEW ENGLAND. WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME IN REACHING THE GROUND HAVING TO OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR. EXPECT A SECOND-ACT OF SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A FOLLOW-UP COLD FRONT. STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE- TO TWO-TENTHS.

FEEL THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION AND WILL
USE IT AS GUIDANCE TOWARDS POP-TRENDS GOING HIGH-CATEGORICAL. HRRR
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS ARE NOT BAD...BUT WILL NOT USE AS
FIRST-ORDER GUIDANCE. WILL BLEND WITH SOME CONSENSUS.

FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND WHETHER THE
COLUMN SATURATES COMPLETELY TO THE SURFACE AS THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PER 0Z CHATHAM SOUNDING. BELIEVE
CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS LOW-LEVELS WETBULB AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES...THOUGH WITH A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT THINKING NOT AS
SUBSTANTIAL. NEVERTHELESS...A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
ESPECIALLY WITHIN NESTLED VALLEYS ACROSS N MA WHERE LOWER DEWPOINT
AIR MAY REMAIN TRAPPED. THINK ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF AND
THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NO MORE THAN A TRACE AND HARDLY
NOTICEABLE.

DENSE FOG...LIGHT ONSHORE S/SW-FLOW OF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR COMBINED
WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS PRESENTS POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...THE GREATER CHANCE OF WHICH WOULD BE OVER A DEEPER
SNOWPACK AND ACROSS COLDER WATERS. INTUITION LEADS ME TO BELIEVE ANY
FOG WILL BE SHALLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
SOUPY CONDITIONS AROUND THE UPPER-CAPE ADJACENT TO NEAR-SHORE COLDER
WATERS. WORST CONDITIONS AROUND THE MORNING-MIDDAY TIMEFRAME PRIOR
TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

*/ LATER-HALF OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING UP TO H7 YIELDS THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER
MOMENTUM AND DRIER AIR. AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WHICH THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN / SNOW SQUALLS.

RAIN / SNOW SHOWERS...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHES ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. DECENT SNOW-SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES SUGGESTED BY THE
BURLINGTON WFO WRF WITH THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED ASCENT OF AN
UNSTABLE PROFILE. IT JUST REMAINS A QUESTION OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND AS TO THE INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY OF WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES RESULTING IN RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PREFER TO STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INDICATING AN ISOLATED THREAT WITH AN EQUAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT WOULD BE ALONG W-SLOPES OF
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES WHEREAS ON THE LEE-
SIDE...DOWNSLOPING WINDS LIKELY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL.

WIND GUSTS...WILL PREVAIL A HALF-AND-HALF BLEND OF POWER REGRESSION
MIX-DOWN OF WINDS PER BUFKIT PROFILES AND A CONSENSUS BLEND OF WIND
GUST FORECAST GUIDANCE. POWER REGRESSION WAS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
INDICATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS E-COASTAL MA. NEVERTHELESS
THE BLEND YIELDED AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
AND AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA AND RI...STRONGEST ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WITH 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
50 MPH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. CAN NOT RULE OUT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE TIP OF CAPE ANN...BUT BEING SO BRIEF
DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINE. COULD ALSO SEE STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEE-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DOWNSLOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
*/ WEDNESDAY...

DRY COLD AND BLUSTERY. CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS ALOFT YIELDING AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILE UP TO H7 ALONG WITH STRETCHED MID-
LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE W-PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OFF
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL PERSIST THOUGH CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISOLATED THREAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE LATER-HALF OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W USHERING IN DRIER AIR WHILE EASING
WINDS.

WIND GUSTS...CONTINUED BLUSTERY WITH AROUND 30-35 MPH NW-GUSTS FOR
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH AROUND 35-40 MPH FOR E/S-COASTAL MA...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE OUTER-CAPE TOWARDS MIDDAY BY WHICH POINT
THE WIND ADVISORY SHOULD EXPIRE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND SAT...BUT
  EXACT DETAILS UNCERTAIN.
* MORE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK...DETERIORATES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL...EXPECTING A BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES ARRIVE IN HOW VARIOUS HIGH LATITUDE SHORTWAVES GET
HANDLED AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE FLOW AND MOVE SOUTH.
THIS WILL IN TURN PROVIDE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK AND
TIMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TREND OF THE 17/00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE PRIMARY STORM
TRACK FARTHER SOUTH FROM OUR REGION. THE GFS- AND GEFS MEAN-LED
CAMP TAKE THIS STORM SO FAR SOUTH...IT IS DOUBTFUL WE WOULD SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. MEANWHILE THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL
CAMP...LED BY THE CMC AND ECMWF...KEEP THIS STORM IN PLAY FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE WE HAVE SEEN THIS STORY PLAY OUT MANY
TIMES THE PAST TWO MONTHS...AM THINKING THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO WARRANT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST
COVERED THIS WELL...AND DID NOT CHANGE IT SIGNIFICANTLY.

FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR EACH NEXT WEEK...MEANING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN...ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER.

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ROBUST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REALLY
DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LIKELY SEE 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO BETWEEN -8C AND -4C...SO WITH THE MID-MARCH SUN ONCE
AGAIN IN PLAY...WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...MAINLY THE LOWER-MID 40S.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD TO WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL STORM. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
WITH THIS STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING...WOULD EXPECT
PRIMARILY A RAIN-CHANGING-TO-SNOW SCENARIO. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL WAY TO
EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL SPRING ARRIVES LATE THIS FRIDAY...THE UPPER
LEVELS DID NOT GET THAT MEMO. THE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE HUDSON
BAY AREA WILL PUSH A FAIRLY ROBUST ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/SNOWS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

9Z UPDATE...

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR TOWARDS AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND S-WINDS. IFR/LIFR AROUND
THE OUTER CAPE. IMPROVING TOWARDS EVENING IN WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...40 KTS FOR THE COAST. STRONGEST ON THE OUTER
CAPE AROUND 45 KTS. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. CONTINUED BLUSTERY. PERSISTENT NW-WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
FOR THE INTERIOR...40 KTS COASTAL. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN CONCLUDE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. LOW RISK OF
IFR DURING SHRA AND PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD MVFR AT LOWEST. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

EARLY-HALF OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS AHEAD OF WHICH S/SW-WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY. SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET THOUGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DENSE FOG...LIKELY MORESO ALONG THE SHORES OF THE UPPER CAPE.

TOWARDS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...NW-WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 40-45 KTS. VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVES BUT SEAS BUILD 10-12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE AROUND THE SHORES OF THE
UPPER-CAPE. GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZING
SPRAY HEADLINES AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BLUSTERY WITH NW-GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THERE
STILL WILL REMAIN A FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. SEAS STILL ROUGH AROUND
8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NW WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED. GALE WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...ROUGH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NEAR 40N/70W LATE SOMETIME DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BUILDING SWELLS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS...THEN SNEAKING INTO THE EASTERN WATERS AS
WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7-8 FT POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK...GALE OR AT THE VERY LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ230>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 654 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS HRRR AND RAP TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. HIGHEST POPS SHIFT TO SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE LIGHT RAIN IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE SE CANADIAN PROVINCES EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC LOW
PRES IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW TO THE NE AND STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH. WE ARE CLOSE TO WIND ADVSY BUT
FALL JUST SHORT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS COULD
REACH IT.

HIGHS ARE CHALLENGING TODAY. THINK THE MAVS ARE WAY TOO HIGH WITH
THE CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. SO CHOSE TO BLEND THE COOLER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN...WHICH MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BEING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO WED BEFORE
FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX DURING WED AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL HAVE
PASSED.

DEEP NW FLOW WILL SEND WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW AS WELL.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE N AND W OF THE
AREA...BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 INLAND...LOWER TO MID 20S AT THE COAST...EXCEPT MID
TO UPPER 20S IN THE NYC METRO. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WED WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL
FAST APPROACH ON FRIDAY SPAWNING A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST. THERE STILL IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS ENERGY. THIS LEADS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW KEEPING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE EURO AND CMC ARE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW BRINGING MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THERE
STILL REMAINING A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BEING DEPICTED BY THE 00Z
MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

COMPLICATED PTYPE FORECAST AS THE COLD AIR SOURCE FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALLOWING SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME EAST OR EVEN SOUTHEAST WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SOME MID LEVEL WARMTH IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER COMPLICATING THE
PTYPE...HAVE MAINTAINED CONSISTENT WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
RAIN AND SNOW DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES.

THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

RAIN ENDS FROM 14-16Z WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CONDS IMPROVE
TO VFR.

WINDS VEER TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS
BY MIDDAY...AND THEN TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM THE LEFT OF 310 MAG TO THE RIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN
FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT GUSTS BY 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF PRECIP START/END.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH AMDS POSSIBLE FOR
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 18Z...AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT.
.FRIDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SN AND RA.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE
UPGRADED ALL OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TO A GALE WARNING. WHILE
MIXING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS INDICATED DUE TO THE COLD
WATERS...THE LEVEL OF 35 KT WINDS IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE SOUNDINGS.
THE WARNING BEGINS AT 18Z ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A FEW HOURS LATER
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN. HAVE
THE WARNING ENDING AT 10Z TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
CONTINUED ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO WED. IT IS MARGINAL WED MORNING
SO DIDN`T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO ANY FURTHER. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED OTHERWISE WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUING.

WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS...BUT SEAS MAY BUILD SCA
LEVELS ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CT...AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LI.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY FALL IN THE FROZEN
STATE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID.

RECENT INCREASED FLOW ON RIVERS/STREAMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT...COUPLED WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES...MAY CAUSE ICE BREAKUP/MOVEMENT INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAKE ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...SO INTERESTS ALONG
ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DS
NEAR TERM...24/DS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...24/DS
HYDROLOGY...24/DS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 639 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Today, strong low-level CAA will cause a surface ridge of high
pressure across SD early this morning to expand southeast across the
central plains into northeast KS and northern MO. The pressure
gradient between the surface ridge across the northern plains and an
area low pressure across southern OK has caused north-northeast
winds to range from 15 to 25 MPH with some gusts to around 45 MPH,
especially across north central KS. The stronger winds will continue
this morning but should gradually diminish under 20 MPH during the
late afternoon hours as the surface ridge builds southeast across
the central plains into the mid MS river valley. Highs Today will be
cooler with lower to mid 50s across the northern counties and mid to
upper 50s across the southern counties.

Tonight, a closed upper low across southwest TX will fill into an
open wave and lift northeast into southwest OK by 12Z WED. As the
surface ridge of high pressure shifts east into the Great Lakes
states, southerly winds at 850mb will begin to advect richer
moisture northward across OK. After 6Z the isentropic lift across
east central KS will increase. All the model forecast soundings show
a dry layer between the surface and 875mb, which must saturate
before any measurable precip moves north into the southern counties
of the CWA. At this time I kept most of the CWA dry with a small
sliver across southern Coffey and Anderson county for a slight
chance for showers or sprinkles towards 12Z WED. Overnight lows will
range from around 30 degrees along the NE border where skies will be
clear for most of the night, to the upper 30s across the southeast
counties. After 300 AM temperatures across east central KS may
remain steady or slowly rise as weak WAA develops.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

By Wednesday morning, models are in good agreement with showing a
mid-level shortwave trough centered over the Texas panhandle and
shifting east northeastward through Wednesday night. While the main
wave should remain just south of the forecast area, models continue
to show a chance for light rain extending northward over the
southeastern half of the forecast area as isentropic lift increases.
These light rain showers should diminish from west to east Wednesday
night before the next approaching shortwave trough moves into the
Northern Plains and extends into the Central Plains on Thursday.
This second wave may bring another chance for a few passing rain
showers Thursday into Thursday evening across the southern half of
the forecast area.  However, models are still uncertain with the
precipitation chances over the forecast area as they continue to
show the better chances being focused west and south of the forecast
area.  With mostly cloudy skies in place from these two passing
waves, expect temperatures Wednesday and Thursday to be near or
slightly below the seasonal normals with highs in the upper 40s to
upper 50s and lows in the 30s.

Expect dry conditions Friday into Sunday as surface high pressure
advances into the area behind the exiting shortwave trough. Have
trended a few degrees warmer for temperatures with highs reaching
into the upper 60s/low 70s. By Saturday, models show a mid-level
trough advancing into the Pacific Northwest, moving over the Rockies
on Sunday, and potentially developing a weak embedded shortwave just
ahead of the main trough. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of low pressure from the Rockies southeastward into Oklahoma
and Texas with a weak boundary potentially extending northward
toward the area. The GFS is much more aggressive with the potential
for precipitation across the forecast area Sunday night into Monday,
while the ECMWF keeps the precipitation primarily focused to the
south and west. Due to this model uncertainty, only have slight to
low-end chance PoPs in for Sunday night through Monday night.
Temperatures should drop back down near the seasonal normals for
Sunday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and slightly cooler
still for Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

Most of the area will be under a very high fire danger today. The
mixing depth of the boundary layer this afternoon will increase to
875mb-900mb during the afternoon hours. Most areas will see minimum
RH`s drop to 25 to 30 percent during the afternoon. The northern and
western counties of the CWA will see RH`s drop to 20 to 25 percent
with some areas dipping as low as 18 percent. I used the advance
research WRF model to populate dewpoints. The RAP model looked too
low for dewpoints this afternoon but if other mesoscale models begin
to converge towards the RUC solutions, then dewpoints and RH`s will
have to be adjusted downward. The sustained winds should drop below
20 MPH and gusts less than 25 MPH through he afternoon hours across
the north and western counties of the CWA, thus red flag criteria
should not be met. However, the low RH and dry fuels combined with
winds just under red flag criteria will cause any control burns to
become out of controlled wild fires. Once again all schedule burning
today should be postponed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

A brief period of broken stratus with MVFR ceilings will shift
south of the terminals by 12Z. Another patch of MVFR stratus near
KMCI will head south-southwest and remain east of KFOE and KTOP
through 15Z. North-northeast winds will increase by 15Z to 15 to
17 KTS with gusts of 25 to 27 KTS. The winds will diminish by 21Z
to 10 to 12 KTS. High and mid clouds will increase Tonight, and by
12Z WED there could be broken ceilings of VFR stratus.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 750 AM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NEVADA THIS WEEK. A WEAK PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE...DRY WEATHER...AND NEAR RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...BASED ON 12Z NAM, INCREASED POPS A SMIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM GABBS TO EUREKA COUNTY TO NE ELKO COUNTY. BASED ON
INSTABILITY, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NEAR MANHATTAN TO NEAR EUREKA TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN RUBY
MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY, AS
SUCH ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS, A BIT MORE ON THE
MOUNTAINS.  TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 233 AM /

SYNOPSIS...CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPAN FROM
MONTANA TO CALIFORNIA. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REGION IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AND THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FRONTS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST SONDING FROM ELKO
HAS A PW .44 OF AN INCH WHICH IS 159 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPAN ACROSS THE LKN CWA...WITH
KLRX PINGING INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
HUMBOLDT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER EACH RUN. AT PRESENT THE HRRR IS DRIER
THAN THE GFS WITH TODAYS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS
FIRST STORM AS THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS HAD BEEN DESSICATED. THE
LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF WILL GO TO THE SHELDON NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST A HIGH OF 62F IN ELKO
AND 65F IN WINNEMUCCA...THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
RESPECTIVELY IS 52F AND 56F.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN BUT VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE DEPTH
AND OF A SHORTWAVE LOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS. AN EXTREMELY POSITIVE-TILT PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE FRIDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS
A SHORTWAVE FEATURE BRUSHES NORTHERN NEVADA. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEVADA HOWEVER THE ECWMF MODEL
SUGGESTS A DEEPENING TROUGH LATE SUNDAY THAT WOULD BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA INCLUDING WHITE PINE COUNTY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE NOTION OF GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC FOR NOW.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP AS LOW AS 6500 FEET AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP
THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE SO THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FEATURE APPROACHING WESTERN HUMBOLDT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEVADA TODAY.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KWMC KEKO KELY
AND KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE KWMC ASOS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE TAF WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED AS AMD NOT SKED.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 637 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING IN BEHIND IT. A CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ILN CWA WILL SPEND ANOTHER FEW HOURS IN A WARM AIR MASS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BEFORE THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF
WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMES TO AN END. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND FORT WAYNE TO TOLEDO.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THETA-E AND WIND PLOTS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ON
RECENT NAM/RAP RUNS...THE FRONT IS THE MOST WELL-DEFINED AT 925MB.
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
ALMOST NO DECREASE...WITH GUSTY WSW FLOW.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A CHALLENGE...BECAUSE THE
FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE TYPICAL TIME
PERIOD OF THE LARGEST DIURNAL SWINGS...BUT WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THERE
WILL NOT BE A TYPICAL DIURNAL TRACE FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS
ALSO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SITUATION WITH STEADILY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER THAN A CURVE...THE
TEMPERATURE TRACE TODAY MAY END UP LIKE MORE OF A ZIG-ZAG...WITH
VALUES THAT MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING (BUT POSSIBLY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS).

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO
SPEAK OF. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE (WHICH IS NOT
VERY EXPANSIVE TO BEGIN WITH) IS SITUATED WELL BEHIND THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONT. BASED ON HRRR RUNS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS (FROM
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS)...PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NEAR 12Z-15Z (AND THIS MAY
NOT EVEN OCCUR).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTABLY
COLDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE DEVELOPING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO PLACE...PROVIDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...AND THUS NO REASON
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF THE AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
THUS...THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE
GENERALLY SLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WARMING BY FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALSO BE WETTER AND
CLOUDIER.

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE INITIAL SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING...PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY FROM
WHAT PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS MOISTURE IS THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT...WHICH STILL REMAINS VARIABLE FROM MODEL TO MODEL. IN
GENERAL...THE ECMWF HAS ALLOWED FOR THE GREATEST NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION (COVERING A MUCH WIDER SWATH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA)
AND THE NAM HAS BEEN FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH (LEAVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY). A GFS SOLUTION IS NOT A BAD COMPROMISE...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THE
INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. THINGS GET SLIGHTLY MORE
COMPLICATED GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM...PIVOTING
THINGS INTO A DIRECTION OF NORTHEASTERLY TRAVEL. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN ALLOWING
FOR A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ILN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WITH THIS ACROSS OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. BIGGEST CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY AND WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 2000 FEET IN SPOTS.
THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KLUK WHICH IS A LOWER ELEVATION AIRPORT.
THUS...WILL FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD IN THE LATER PART
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED AND RETURN TO
VFR. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 12-16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND NIGHTFALL DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME.
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPILL EAST/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 633 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND BE NEAR KSPS-KADH
BY 15Z...BRINGING INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
WILL WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE NEAR KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH 16Z. ADDED A TEMPO
MENTION AT THESE SITES DUE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ADDITIONAL MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS WITH RA AND BR WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF KHBR-KSWO AFTER 03Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO CONCERNS THIS MORNING... FIRST REMAINS FIRE WEATHER FOR ONGOING
CONTAINMENT OF BOILING SPRINGS FIRE IN NORTHERN WOODWARD COUNTY.
SECOND... RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING... THE COLD FRONT STARTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NWRN OK THIS
MORNING AROUND 2-230AM CDT. THROUGH 3AM THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIND
SHIFT HAS JUST CLEARED THE BOILING SPRINGS FIRE LOCATION. AS THE
WINDS SHIFTED AND MIXING INCREASED... IT WAS EVIDENT FROM IR SAT AND
RADAR THAT THE FIRE FLARED UP FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR... SMOKE
PLUME ON RADAR QUICKLY DISAPPEARED AS CREWS GOT IT BACK UNDER
CONTROL. BIG CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNRISE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. UP
STREAM... WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SERN KS HAVE REMAINED
GUSTY... SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. THE RAP AND HRRR
HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB WITH WINDS THIS AM... CHECKING SOUNDINGS...
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MIXING ACROSS NWRN OK TO GET N/NE WINDS SUSTAINED
15 TO 20 GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL RELAX ONLY SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNRISE... REMAINING BREEZY AND OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE AFTN. RH
VALUES WILL BE BETTER FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE MID 30S IN NWRN OK AND 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE REST OF OK INTO
NRN TX.

AS FOR RAIN... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. INCREASED
POPS THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY AFTER 18/00Z (7 PM CDT). A
FASCINATING SYSTEM... WHICH HAS REMAINED PARKED OVER WRN MX/SRN BAJA
THE PAST FEW DAYS... IT IS BRINGING SOME IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WITH IT
INTO THE REGION. WATCHING WV THIS MORNING... THE H500 LOW LOOKS TO
FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE... SLOWLY STARTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
NWRN MEXICO. ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... PWATS FROM 17/00Z SOUNDINGS
LAST NIGHT ARE ALL IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE... WITH NEAR 1.00 IN OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALREADY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/TRANS PECOS REGION THIS EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY LIFT INTO NRN TX WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
WELL SATURATED COLUMNS AND GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE
TO MAKE THIS AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY REMAINS PALTRY AND CONFINED TO THE RED RIVER REGION...
ALSO LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN STELLAR... SO MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS TEXOMA LATE TUE/EARLY WED AND AGAIN WED AFTN. NO
SEVERE STORMS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WED. STILL
ANTICIPATE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 0.25IN IN NRN OK... FROM 0.10 TO
0.30 ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX... WITH HIGHER TOTALS EAST AND
SOUTH OF I-44... ANYWHERE FROM A HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.

EXPECT A LULL LATE WED/EARLY THU... WITH RAIN CHANCES STEADILY
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THU... PRIMARILY ACROSS NRN OK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS OUR NEXT
H500 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SW U.S. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO A
HALF INCH IN FAR NWRN OK TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OK AND NRN TX IS POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI AM.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND WARM... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  45  57  44 /  10 100  70  30
HOBART OK         63  42  59  44 /  10  70  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  48  63  47 /  20  90  20  10
GAGE OK           54  36  60  38 /  10  30  20  30
PONCA CITY OK     61  42  50  38 /  10  70  90  30
DURANT OK         77  54  61  49 /  20  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04/17



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 611 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AT 09Z SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN PA IN ASSOC WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AT NOSE OF LL JET.
LATEST 4KM NAM AND HRRR INDICATE THIS AREA OF RAIN RAPIDLY SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH PASSAGE OF LL JET. TRAILING COLD
FRONT...ENTERING NW PA AT 09Z...WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES BY NOON.

SCT SHRA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA BTWN 12Z-16Z...WITH
MEASURABLE AMTS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. MDL SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE N MTNS BY ARND 15Z. HOWEVER...QPF SO LGT AND SFC TEMPS
MARGINAL...SO NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.

TODAY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY...AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN MIXING
TO THE SFC IN WAKE OF CDFRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO ARND 30KTS FROM LATE AM THRU EARLY EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD REVERSE THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMP
TREND...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. AFTER A MILD START...READINGS BY
DUSK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U20S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE L40S
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR BUT CHILLY WX. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID WINTER AGAIN TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UTEENS AND
L20S. AN ACCOMPANYING NWRLY BREEZE WILL CREATE WCHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY FROZEN LKS ERIE AND
HURON...SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY. ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE
L30S NW MTNS...TO THE L/M40S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. DEEPENING
BLYR DEPTH SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS BY AFTN OF ARND
25KTS...ADDING TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WX...LGT WIND AND STILL COOL CONDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES OVR PA. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU THE REGION. GEFS/ECENS BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW REMAINS WEAK AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC LOW AND HIGH OFF THE NEW ENG
COAST...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING FOR A
LIGHT TO MOD PRECIP EVENT. ATTM...GEFS PLUMES AND MEAN 8H 0C
ISOTHERM IN ECENS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY PTYPE IS SNOW. ALTHOUGH
SOME RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE S TIER.

A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC
COAST. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHEAST FROM A KELM...TO KDUJ AND KCAK
LINE AT 0930Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND AND TO THE SE
OF A 1001 MB SFC LOW /THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR BGM/ WILL BRUSH OUR
NORTH AND NE ZONES EARLY TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR. ACROSS THE
WRN MTNS /TAF SITES KBFD AND KJST/ THE COOL...MOIST...UPSLOPE
NWRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AND
MORE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA...CHANGING TO -SHSN LATER THIS
MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST SUNDAY /ALBEIT LIKELY 5 KNOTS
OR SO LOWER/...WILL CREATE CROSS WINDS FOR TAKEOFF AND FAP AT
NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE. THE MOST PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR LAYER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE TOP OF THE WELL-MIXED
LAYER /OR BETWEEN 3-5 KFT GAL/. SINCE THIS SHEAR IS OCCURRING
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL...TRUE LLWS WILL NOT BE PRESENT OR INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS.

THE GUSTY NW WIND OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL VARY
FROM VFR BKN-OVC THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN...WITH
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY SCATTERED VFR FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30KTS FROM 290-320.

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX.

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES TRACKING
ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

SAT...MVFR/IFR PSBL NW 1/2 IN -SHSN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 954 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SLIGHT POP
INCREASES AND DECREASES REGIONALLY TO BETTER TIME THE RAIN BAND
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE EXPIRED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. UPDATES ARE OUT AND
UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DENSE FOG IN SE ZONES AND ISOLATED AREAS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH MOST
READINGS NOW ABOVE 1SM. THIS TREND WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. A LIGHT RAIN BAND IN NOTED ON REGIONAL
RADARS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT IS SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTH
AND EAST. DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WILL KEEP EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE BAND SLOW THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES TRENDS...HAVE SLIGHTLY CUT BACK ON POPS (-10%) IN EASTERN
AREAS NOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT INCREASES
(+10%) FOR WEST-CENTRAL LOCATIONS. LATEST HRRR...TEXAS TECH
WRF...AND 12Z NAM HAVE BAND ENTERING THE I-35 CORRIDOR 2-4PM OVER
BEXAR AND TOWARDS AUSTIN BY 5-7PM. SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT MUCAPE LOOKS TO
INCREASE MORE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SECOND
POTENTIAL ROUND. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HANDLES THIS SITUATION
WELL AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND THERE. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE
MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NORTH. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BEING TO ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINAL
BY MID AFTERNOON KEEPING THE TERMINAL IN MVFR CIG CATEGORY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND BACK TO VFR AFTER DARK.

FOR THE I35 TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN ARRIVE AROUND MID DAY. CIGS WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
EVEN WITH THE RAIN AT FIRST. HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PERIODICALLY REDUCE VIS AND CIGS SO
INCLUDED PROB30 AT KSAT/KSSF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL I35
TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
OF A MILE AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z /10 AM/.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT WITH TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SATURATION ONGOING IN THE COLUMN. FIRST IS ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEARLY SATURATED AS WELL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED...ALL THAT REMAINS IS THE MID LEVELS
WHICH REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB RH
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SATURATION AT 700 MB FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 16Z.

NOW WE KNOW WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WILL OCCUR...THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE DEEP LIFT ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AND HOW LONG THE LIFTING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF BAJA
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME MODELS WHICH
MOVED THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR DEL RIO WHILE SOME MOVED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS. A 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
GIVES US A GOOD IDEA ON THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NNW INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS HAD SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
WHICH INDICATES THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OR BUILDING
WEST. UPPER AIR SITES IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 HEIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD WANT TO GO. MOST IF NOT ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION IS SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE NNE THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW- LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL INITIALLY FALL
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND I-35/37 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
ONCE THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...THIS ZONE OF N-S LIFT WILL BE SLOW
TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL SLOWLY DO SO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR. WILL
SHOW THIS EXPECTED PROGRESSION IN THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST...THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED VORT MAX ROTATING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS/NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY OUR ONLY
CLUE TO THIS FEATURE WOULD BE LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN ENHANCEMENT CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THIS IS WHAT THE
ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING AND THAT IS INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO WARRANT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. WEAK LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WHERE THE ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WITH A BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS REGENERATION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
TOTALS COULD GO UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO. THIS AREA DID NOT
SEE AS MUCH WITH THE LAST EVENT AND CAN EASILY TAKE THESE TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR
POSSIBLE EASTWARD SHIFT WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN TO AREA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PERIOD WILL SERVE AS
A TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LOWS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT THIS FOCUS WILL QUICKLY BE LOST AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE THE 850 FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
AND THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LIFT LEADING TO A
BAND OF HEAVIER TOTALS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS REGARDING WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AS
WELL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH THIS SECOND EVENT BUT SOME
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND
WHERE. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD PRIMARILY BE TO RIVERS FROM
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS. CAPE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL...BUT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED.

RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  59  73  60  76 /  60  70  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  73  60  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  60  75  60  76 /  80  80  60  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  57  72  58  75 /  60  70  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  58  77  60  81 /  50  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  59  72  59  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  59  75  60  78 /  80  70  50  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  60  74  60  76 /  60  80  60  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  62  73  62  75 /  40  60  60  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  60  74  61  76 /  90  80  50  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  60  75  62  77 /  90  80  50  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE
MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NORTH. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BEING TO ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINAL
BY MID AFTERNOON KEEPING THE TERMINAL IN MVFR CIG CATEGORY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND BACK TO VFR AFTER DARK.

FOR THE I35 TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN ARRIVE AROUND MID DAY. CIGS WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
EVEN WITH THE RAIN AT FIRST. HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PERIODICALLY REDUCE VIS AND CIGS SO
INCLUDED PROB30 AT KSAT/KSSF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL I35
TERMINALS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
OF A MILE AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z /10 AM/.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT WITH TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SATURATION ONGOING IN THE COLUMN. FIRST IS ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEARLY SATURATED AS WELL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED...ALL THAT REMAINS IS THE MID LEVELS
WHICH REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB RH
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SATURATION AT 700 MB FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 16Z.

NOW WE KNOW WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WILL OCCUR...THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE DEEP LIFT ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AND HOW LONG THE LIFTING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF BAJA
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME MODELS WHICH
MOVED THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR DEL RIO WHILE SOME MOVED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS. A 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
GIVES US A GOOD IDEA ON THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NNW INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS HAD SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
WHICH INDICATES THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OR BUILDING
WEST. UPPER AIR SITES IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 HEIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD WANT TO GO. MOST IF NOT ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION IS SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE NNE THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW- LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL INITIALLY FALL
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND I-35/37 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
ONCE THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...THIS ZONE OF N-S LIFT WILL BE SLOW
TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL SLOWLY DO SO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR. WILL
SHOW THIS EXPECTED PROGRESSION IN THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST...THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED VORT MAX ROTATING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS/NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY OUR ONLY
CLUE TO THIS FEATURE WOULD BE LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN ENHANCEMENT CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THIS IS WHAT THE
ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING AND THAT IS INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO WARRANT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. WEAK LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WHERE THE ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WITH A BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS REGENERATION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
TOTALS COULD GO UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO. THIS AREA DID NOT
SEE AS MUCH WITH THE LAST EVENT AND CAN EASILY TAKE THESE TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR
POSSIBLE EASTWARD SHIFT WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN TO AREA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PERIOD WILL SERVE AS
A TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LOWS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT THIS FOCUS WILL QUICKLY BE LOST AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE THE 850 FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
AND THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LIFT LEADING TO A
BAND OF HEAVIER TOTALS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS REGARDING WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AS
WELL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH THIS SECOND EVENT BUT SOME
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND
WHERE. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD PRIMARILY BE TO RIVERS FROM
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS. CAPE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL...BUT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED.

RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  59  73  60  76 /  60  70  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  73  60  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  60  75  60  76 /  80  80  60  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  57  72  58  75 /  60  70  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  58  77  60  81 /  50  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  59  72  59  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  59  75  60  78 /  80  70  50  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  60  74  60  76 /  60  80  60  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  62  73  62  75 /  40  60  60  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  60  74  61  76 /  80  80  50  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  60  75  62  77 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 616 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
OF A MILE AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z /10 AM/.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT WITH TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SATURATION ONGOING IN THE COLUMN. FIRST IS ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEARLY SATURATED AS WELL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED...ALL THAT REMAINS IS THE MID LEVELS
WHICH REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB RH
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SATURATION AT 700 MB FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 16Z.

NOW WE KNOW WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WILL OCCUR...THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE DEEP LIFT ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AND HOW LONG THE LIFTING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF BAJA
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME MODELS WHICH
MOVED THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR DEL RIO WHILE SOME MOVED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS. A 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
GIVES US A GOOD IDEA ON THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NNW INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS HAD SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
WHICH INDICATES THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OR BUILDING
WEST. UPPER AIR SITES IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 HEIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD WANT TO GO. MOST IF NOT ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION IS SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE NNE THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW- LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL INITIALLY FALL
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND I-35/37 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
ONCE THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...THIS ZONE OF N-S LIFT WILL BE SLOW
TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL SLOWLY DO SO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR. WILL
SHOW THIS EXPECTED PROGRESSION IN THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST...THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED VORT MAX ROTATING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS/NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY OUR ONLY
CLUE TO THIS FEATURE WOULD BE LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN ENHANCEMENT CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THIS IS WHAT THE
ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING AND THAT IS INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO WARRANT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. WEAK LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WHERE THE ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WITH A BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS REGENERATION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
TOTALS COULD GO UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO. THIS AREA DID NOT
SEE AS MUCH WITH THE LAST EVENT AND CAN EASILY TAKE THESE TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR
POSSIBLE EASTWARD SHIFT WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN TO AREA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PERIOD WILL SERVE AS
A TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LOWS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT THIS FOCUS WILL QUICKLY BE LOST AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE THE 850 FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
AND THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LIFT LEADING TO A
BAND OF HEAVIER TOTALS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS REGARDING WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AS
WELL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH THIS SECOND EVENT BUT SOME
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND
WHERE. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD PRIMARILY BE TO RIVERS FROM
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS. CAPE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL...BUT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED.

RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  59  73  60  76 /  60  70  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  73  60  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  60  75  60  76 /  80  80  60  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  57  72  58  75 /  60  70  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  58  77  60  81 /  50  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  59  72  59  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  59  75  60  78 /  80  70  50  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  60  74  60  76 /  60  80  60  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  62  73  62  75 /  40  60  60  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  60  74  61  76 /  80  80  50  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  60  75  62  77 /  80  80  50  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29



YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

 










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 900 AM MST TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND
EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER
BUMPING UP TO .83 WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES. STILL LOOKING AT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS INCLUDING A FOCUS PRIMARILY EAST OF
TUCSON TODAY WITH A REMNANT LOW LIFTING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO
NEW MEXICO. LATEST HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WE`LL SPREAD ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
CLOSER TO TUCSON FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES
EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/18Z.
A WEAK LOW LIFTING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BREAK OVERNIGHT, AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH OUTFLOWS, BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WORK WEEK IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH THE AREA SEEING MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A PAIR OF
WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. THIS FIRST ONE...CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NRN MEXICO...HAS SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SE AZ. LATEST BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED VALUES OF 0.50" TO 0.65" WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE THE SECOND SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER THRU THE WEEK WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WHITES. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

 123 PM PDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT TAHOE SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A
COLDER PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PRONOUNCED PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL NV
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. BUT
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
MAMMOTH-HAWTHORNE LINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH SNOW LEVELS
8500+ FT.

TOMORROW COULD END UP BEING A RATHER INTERESTING WEATHER DAY,
WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ABOUT A MONTH OR TWO EARLY!
COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THAT PLUME, DESTABILIZATION,
AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT I-80 SOUTHWARD.
STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT THOUGH GENERALLY N/NE SUCH THAT CELLS WOULD
MOVE OVER TO THE WEST SLOPES BUT SLOWLY. ACCORDINGLY THE SREF TSTM
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE BEST CHANCES ALONG/WEST OF THE CREST. WE`VE
INCREASED CHANCES OF TSRA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
KEPT THEM PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE
8000-9000 FT BASED ON WET BULB ZERO GUIDANCE, BUT THOSE COULD BE
DRAGGED DOWN 1000+ FEET IN TSTMS LEADING TO LOCALIZED RAPID SNOW
ACCUMS ON PASS ROADS.

WARMING HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
PRETTY DRY AIR, SEEN IN THE GFS. THIS AIR WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO
VALLEYS LEADING TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. POOR MIDSLOPE AND RIDGE RH RECOVERIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWING
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHICH WILL ACT TO
KICK UP THE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT A BIG WIND
MAKER BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTS 30+ MPH ESPECIALLY FROM
HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY
WINDS IS WORTH NOTING FOR OUR FIRE PARTNERS. CS


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK DIRECTED AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH.

NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THIS LOW DOES HAVE ENOUGH DEPTH TO PUSH A FRONT
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS VARY IF PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA, BUT WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION REACHING LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS
COULD BE AS LOW AS 5000 FEET, BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AS MODELS ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN 0.50 INCH OF LIQUID
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH PEAK VALLEY GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MONO LAKE-
HAWTHORNE THROUGH 02Z. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FROM PORTOLA TO MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PELLETS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. BRONG


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 246 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BISECTED THE STATE OF IOWA TODAY AND WERE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS MOISTURE WAS MOVING INTO THE STATE
FROM THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TODAY. EXTREMELY
DRY AIR...LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN WAS FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THIS
WAS LEADING TO EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. MANY SITES
HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE ZERO DIGITS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH COMPUTER
GUIDANCE VIRTUALLY USELESS FOR THE DEWPOINTS TODAY THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST. HIRES HOURLY MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE.

NONE OF THE 12Z REGIONAL AND SPECTRAL MODELS COME EVEN CLOSE TO
HANDLING THE DRY AIR WELL...SO FORCED TO USE THE HRRR AND THE RUC
FOR DEW POINT TEMPS. THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
UNTIL MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF WIND CAN ADVECT LAKE
MICHIGAN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT AND
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...USED THE RUC AND HRRR DEWPOINTS
AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED FROM THERE. MODELS HAVE WARMED UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS. NOT CONVINCED OF THIS...SO WENT WITH LOW END OF
GUIDANCE...SINCE WE COULD DROP FAST TONIGHT TEMP WISE BEFORE THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND NORMAL LIKE TODAY. I
POPULATED WITH THE ALLBLEND...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
SUPERBLEND. THOUGHT THIS WAS A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH THE CLOUDS
IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. WE SHOULDN`T BE AS DRY AS WE WERE
TODAY...SO THE THREAT OF HIGH FIRE DANGER SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

OVERVIEW...NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 540 DAM AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY...COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.
WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW SUPERBLEND SINCE RAW MODELS TEND TO PERFORM
BETTER IN THESE PATTERN SHIFT REGIMES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. 850 MB TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR -4 C.

SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE S/SE CWA BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DISORGANIZED AND MOISTURE STARVED.

FRIDAY...WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVG IN
THE LOW 60S AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
850 MB TEMPS COULD PEAK IN THE +4-8 C RANGE WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AROUND 550 DAM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLIDING A SPRAWLING
1030-1035 MB SFC HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. EXPECT A STEADY NW FLOW ON
SAT AND THEN EAST WINDS ON SUN. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL AS
LOW AS -8 C PER THE ECMWF BY SAT NIGHT. AGAIN WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE SUPERBLEND WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY THE
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS IN A SHIFT TO COOLER WEATHER LIKE THIS.

MONDAY...VORTICITY MAX IN THE NW FLOW MAY BRING LIGHT PRECIP INTO
THE REGION. 40S FOR HIGHS BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL VERY LOW.

THE NEXT WARM-UP WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE RETURN FLOW KICKS
IN...POSSIBLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLUG OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN A WIND SHIFT
WITH WINDS STARTING TO SLACKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO A SE WIND TOMORROW AM.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRIER THAN FORECAST AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WAS LEADING TO SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
TO OUR NORTH IN BOSCOBEL AND PDC. THIS AIRMASS WILL ADVECT DOWN
HERE. ONLY THE RECENT HRRR AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THIS DRY
AIR. THE 12Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...BUT THE BCNAM SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER IDEA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT THE DRYING TO CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...THE NEW GFDI VALUES
WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM I80 SOUTH. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
(15-30 KTS) IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF STRONG 1040 MB
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW
AREA OF STRATOCU WITH MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL ATTENDANT
TO REMNANT PNEUMONIA FRONT WHICH PUSHED OFF WEST SHORE OF LAKE MI
LAST EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAINLY BOUTS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ATTENDANT TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET FROM UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY AND MUCH COLDER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

TODAY...WANING MID LEVEL FORCING ATTENDANT TO DEPARTING UPPER JET INTO
GREAT LAKES SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DAY PROGRESSES
WITH GENERALLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY 15-25 KTS THOUGH SOME DECREASE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL
UNTIL MID AM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN EXPECT SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY THIS
AFTERNOON AND STAYED NEAR THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH
DRY GROUND AND STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN. RAP/GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB... WHICH BROUGHT TO SURFACE SUPPORTS RANGE
OF HIGHS FROM MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE QUITE
CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER... AND FORECAST LOWS
ARE NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY GROUND COULD SEE SOME FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES NORTH/EAST CWA DIP DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 20S IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR LONGER THAN
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TWO SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE NORTHERN STORM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN STORM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY CATCH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PARTS OF HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL.

FRIDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED
RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE
MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MIGHT BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLUG OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN A WIND SHIFT
WITH WINDS STARTING TO SLACKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO A SE WIND TOMORROW AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 1106 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRIER THAN FORECAST AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. THIS AIRMASS WAS LEADING TO SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
TO OUR NORTH IN BOSCOBEL AND PDC. THIS AIRMASS WILL ADVECT DOWN
HERE. ONLY THE RECENT HRRR AND RUC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THIS DRY
AIR. THE 12Z NAM IS TOO MOIST...BUT THE BCNAM SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER IDEA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT THE DRYING TO CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...THE NEW GFDI VALUES
WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM I80 SOUTH. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
(15-30 KTS) IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF STRONG 1040 MB
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE USHERING IN COLDER AIR. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW
AREA OF STRATOCU WITH MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL ATTENDANT
TO REMNANT PNEUMONIA FRONT WHICH PUSHED OFF WEST SHORE OF LAKE MI
LAST EVENING. OTHERWISE... MAINLY BOUTS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ATTENDANT TO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF JET FROM UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY AND MUCH COLDER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

TODAY...WANING MID LEVEL FORCING ATTENDANT TO DEPARTING UPPER JET INTO
GREAT LAKES SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS DAY PROGRESSES
WITH GENERALLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY 15-25 KTS THOUGH SOME DECREASE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL
UNTIL MID AM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN EXPECT SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY THIS
AFTERNOON AND STAYED NEAR THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH
DRY GROUND AND STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN. RAP/GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB... WHICH BROUGHT TO SURFACE SUPPORTS RANGE
OF HIGHS FROM MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE QUITE
CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER... AND FORECAST LOWS
ARE NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DRY GROUND COULD SEE SOME FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES NORTH/EAST CWA DIP DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 20S IF SKIES WERE TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR FOR LONGER THAN
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TWO SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE NORTHERN STORM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE BUT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN STORM HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT THE BETTER FORCING
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY CATCH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PARTS OF HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL.

FRIDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED
RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE
MODELS ON WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MONDAY MIGHT BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24+ HRS. NORTHERLY
WINDS 10-20+ KTS AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CUTOFF LOW OVER MEXICO WITH
RIDGE EXPECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND
ADVECTED WEST INTO OUR CWA...WITH NEGATIVE VALUES IN OUR NORTHEAST.
AS TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY MODERATED INTO THE THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON
RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND WHILE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT HAVE OCCURRED PREVAILING
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO WINDS.

TONIGHT...COOL AIR MASS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MID-HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT...LOCATIONS THAT SEE PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS
COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S.

WEDNESDAY...LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE COLORADO STATE
LINE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
ONLY CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD COMPLICATE TEMP FORECAST/DAYTIME MIXING.
INCREASING WAA OVER THE CWA SHOULD SUPPORT TEMP RECOVERY INTO THE
60S  FOR MOST LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 70F IN THE WEST IF THERE
IS BETTER CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL...MOVE EAST OVER IDAHO AND
MONTANA BEFORE DIVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND
MEANDER TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FORCES
SHOWERS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEM LIKELY...HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. HAVE FORECAST HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AND POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. GLANCING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OR A COMPLETE CHANGE TO SNOW. DENSE CLOUD
COVER WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WOULD INDICATE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO LACK OF DIURNAL COOLING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING. UNFORTUNATELY...GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. GEFS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITHIN ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS
INDICATES A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN MODELS
BUT IS DISPLACED NORTH BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GUIDANCE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE HANDLING GULF RETURN FLOW WELL AS THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINT FIELDS. FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GULF
MOISTURE FETCH TO BRING SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THUS INSTABILITY
INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE MAY OBSERVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER YET AS TEMPORAL AND SPACIAL
DETAILS NEED TO BE RESOLVED. ON THE BACK SIDE...THERE COULD BE A
CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES ALSO REMAIN ON TEMPERATURES
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVAL TIMING SO DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT TO MENTION ANY
AMOUNTS.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20 PERCENT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. WITH
RECENT FIRE GROWTH DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SUSCEPTIBLE
FUELS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 18KT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY IMPACTING KGLD DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 428 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. WITH THE
CONFLUDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...STRONG NW GRADIENT FLOW
PREVAILED AHEAD OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BNDRY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 0 TO 10F
RANGE...ONLY HIGH BASED CU HAD DEVELOPED. AN OPEN PATCH OF WATER
OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALLOWED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES
TO DEVELOP FROM P53 EASTWARD.

TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BUT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED NW FLOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE ERN
CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKE.

WED...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -
8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW
40S SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

COOL WITH LIMITED PRECIP THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

NW FLOW ALOFT...AS BEEN THE CASE SO FREQUENTLY THIS YEAR...WILL BE
SET UP AT 00Z THURSDAY...AS 2 500MB LOWS REMAIN TO OUR N /OVER
HUDSON BAY AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND/. OTHERWISE...THE
LATEST SFC HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI WILL BE ON
THE WAY OUT...SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP UP 2-5F FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY 40-46F.

ALSO THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS
STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING...AND W
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SINK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI ON FRIDAY. THE 500MB NEWFOUNDLAND LOW
WILL EXIT N...WHILE THE HUDSON BAY LOW DIGS S ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND WINTER-LIKE
WEATHER. SFC TEMPS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S...NEARING 30F SOUTH CENTRAL...AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT THE 500MB LOW TO EXIT INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE EXIT OF THE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH
WILL THEN DRIFT E TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
TYPICALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LOOKS LIKE AFTER FRIDAY...WE WILL
GET BACK TO THESE NORMAL HIGH TEMP VALUES BY NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL BE
COMMON). WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 30 KTS TODAY UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 418 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY AND A RIDGE FROM THE WRN PLAINS INTO WRN CANADA. WITH THE
CONFLUDENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...STRONG NW GRADIENT FLOW
PREVAILED AHEAD OF A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING IN THE DEEPENING BNDRY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIND
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 0 TO 10F
RANGE...ONLY HIGH BASED CU HAD DEVELOPED. AN OPEN PATCH OF WATER
OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ALLOWED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES
TO DEVELOP FROM P53 EASTWARD.

TONIGHT...850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -14C OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LES IN THE DRY AIRMASS BUT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED NW FLOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE ERN
CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR WITH MIN READINGS MAINLY IN THE TEENS
INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE LAKE.

WED...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -
8C TO -12C RANGE HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE LOW
40S SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR ON THE LOW SIDE...THOUGH
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO THAT ALSO APPEARED TO BE THE CASE FOR WHAT
TURNED OUT TO BE A SOGGY MONDAY OVER MUCH OF CWA. DESPITE THE RAIN
ON MONDAY THOUGH...DEFICITS FOR MARCH REMAIN OVER 1 INCH AND YEARLY
DEFICITS ARE NEAR 2.75 INCHES. FOR MOST PART...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE DEFICITS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NW FLOW OVER UPR LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE EMERGING OUT OF SHARP TROUGH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY...TO RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY TO ADVANCE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE LIGHT QPF ON THURSDAY IN RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. INCREASING 925-850MB RH ALONG
WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT SAME LEVELS IN ADDITION TO LIFT FM
THE SHORTWAVE SUGGEST AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THAT TIME.
DESPITE PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT...BULK OF COLD AIR LAGS MORE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHERE H85 TEMPS BLO -20C ARRIVE. RAISED
TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP OVER CONSENSUS WITH AREAS OVER BARE GROUND OF
SNCTRL CWA POSSIBLY TO 50 DEGREEES. FOR THE WEATHER FRIDAY...TRENDED
AWAY FM THE WETTER GFS AND INSTEAD LEANED ON THE ECMWF/GEM-NH SINCE
THE GFS APPEARED BOTH TOO QUICK AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN ON FRIDAY WHICH ENHANCED ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG
THE DEPARTING FRONT. DPROG/DT OF GFS INDICATES THERE IS MINIMAL
CONSISTENCY IN WHAT GFS SHOWS...SO LIKE A MORE TONED DOWN CONSENSUS
FOR POPS.

TURNS COLD FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL
AS DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH LOWER 20S ALONG LK
SUPERIOR AND THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE SCNTRL. NORMAL HIGHS ALONG LK
SUPERIOR MID-UPR 30S. A BIT BETTER ON SUNDAY WITH UPR 20S TO MID 30S
OVER THE CWA. NIGHTTIME LOWS SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
LOWERED MINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO CONSENSUS ESPECIALLY INLAND.
GIVEN SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD AND COLD AIRMASS...THINK THERE IS AT LEAST
SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SUB ZERO LOW TEMPS. RECORD LOW TEMPS AT
NWS MARQUETTE CAN BE BLO ZERO THROUGH MID APRIL...SO NOT A STRETCH
THAT WE COULD SEE MINS TEMPS THAT LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS AND
SUCH COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FORECAST OF HIGHER
RH AT 925/850/700MB SUGGEST THERE MAY BE LAKE EFFECT FOR AREAS
FAVORED BY NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. ICE
COVER STILL PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVER THE EASTERN LAKE...SO KEPT POPS
ONLY LOW CHANCE.

TEMPS MODERATE SLIGHTLY JUST BEYOND EXTENDED TIME FRAME...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT OR LARGE SCALE WARMUP APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (GUSTS TO 25-30KT WILL BE
COMMON). WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 30 KTS TODAY UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WILL MENTION A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE EAST INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER
WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM

 349 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. THEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL AGAIN
SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THEN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MOST
OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS PROMISED THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH HAS BEEN
ABLE TO PULL IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FOR MARCH IS 0.99 AND ALL THE MODELS ARE
GOING FOR RIGHT NEAR ONE INCH THIS EVENING. A HIGH PW DOESN`T DO
YOU MUCH GOOD IF YOU CAN`T SQUEEZE ANY RAIN OUT OF IT. BOTH WITH
THE LOW SO NEAR AND WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A BIT OF A RAMP DOWN LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF OUR POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST ANOTHER
LOW WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND LOW IS SLOW SO WE
WILL SEE A BIT OF A DOWN DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT I CAN`T COMPLETELY
REMOVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY WE
WILL AGAIN SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN...FIRST OUT WEST AND THEN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LIKE I SAID THIS LOW IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO MOST OF SATURDAY NOW.

FINALLY ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THEN ON MONDAY
THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS WE MOVE FURTHER FROM WINTER A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST MEANS LESS AND LESS ABOUT BRINGING IN COLDER AIR
AND IT IS SIMPLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND THIS IS THE CASE
THIS TIME AROUND. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY MOVE HIGHER ON TUESDAY IN
THE EXTENDED GFS. LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST...WE MAY SEE
OUR FIRST REALLY WINDY DAY OF MARCH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE DASHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND A NICE LEE SIDE TROUGH
GETS DEVELOPED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING COULD CAUSE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 06Z. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE TURBULENCE...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE BAJA REGION HAS
BEGUN ITS TRACK NORTHEAST AND HAS ALSO BEGUN TO STREAMING MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TODAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED. GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS TO 50
MPH...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...REMAIN THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
EXPECTED CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL SEE SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE IS REPLACED
BY A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL STREAM BAJA MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY DRIER WEATHER TAKES OVER AS THE TROUGH
IS TO OUR EAST AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP.

THIS AFTERNOON MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE SACS AND GILA
WILDERNESS WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR...40S TO 50S IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FIRE
ZONES WITH MIN RH VALUES AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 60S IN THE EASTERN
FIRE WEATHER ZONES. HIGH RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 49  70  55  72  51 /  50  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           44  67  50  69  47 /  50  20  20  10  30
LAS CRUCES              45  69  49  70  45 /  40  20  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              44  69  48  72  45 /  30  20  30  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              35  50  37  50  33 /  40  30  40  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  64  48  68  44 /  30  30  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             42  60  44  61  40 /  50  50  30  30  30
DEMING                  46  70  48  70  43 /  40  30  30  20  20
LORDSBURG               45  68  46  67  42 /  40  40  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  70  56  71  51 /  50  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               43  70  48  73  44 /  60  20  20  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            48  71  53  73  50 /  50  20  30  10  30
LOMA LINDA              45  64  50  66  46 /  50  20  20  10  20
FABENS                  47  70  53  72  49 /  50  20  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            46  70  52  71  47 /  50  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          47  69  52  69  48 /  40  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           42  70  46  71  42 /  40  20  30  20  30
HATCH                   45  70  48  70  44 /  40  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS                48  69  51  69  47 /  40  30  30  20  20
OROGRANDE               47  68  52  70  48 /  40  20  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 37  57  41  59  35 /  50  30  30  30  30
MESCALERO               38  58  39  59  34 /  40  30  30  30  40
TIMBERON                37  57  41  58  36 /  50  30  30  20  30
WINSTON                 41  61  44  60  38 /  50  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               44  66  46  65  43 /  40  30  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               44  68  44  70  40 /  30  20  30  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            40  59  41  60  37 /  50  40  30  40  30
HURLEY                  44  62  44  63  40 /  40  40  30  20  20
CLIFF                   41  67  44  67  39 /  50  40  40  30  30
MULE CREEK              40  64  37  64  34 /  50  40  40  30  30
FAYWOOD                 43  65  46  64  42 /  40  40  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  46  69  48  68  44 /  40  40  30  30  30
HACHITA                 45  70  47  69  43 /  40  40  30  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  69  46  68  42 /  30  40  40  30  30
CLOVERDALE              44  65  46  65  42 /  30  50  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/PAZOS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE BAJA REGION THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED MOVING NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH ITS TRACK SO
FAR HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CAUGHT ONTO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...HOWEVER THE RAP OUT TO 18 HOURS
IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS...SUGGESTIVE THAT THE PRIMARY
GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP TO CURRENT TRENDS.
DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE REGION SAW MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO NEAR 80 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION AND AT 3 PM WAS LOCATED FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO DENTON TO
BONHAM AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN...AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TOMORROW.

WITHOUT TAKING A PEEK AT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST GOING DOWN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL RAINFALL CHECKLIST...ALL INGREDIENTS ARE
AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A SLOW MOVING
FRONT...STRONG LIFT...MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL...WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IN THE CLOUD LAYER...AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CURIOUSLY LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RAINFALL
PROSPECTS...COMING IN DRIER AND SHOWING JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGION. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DECADES...BUT 20 YEARS AGO THIS SETUP PROBABLY
WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST
BASED ON THE ANALYSIS DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. WHAT I
GATHER FROM THE UNANIMOUSLY DRIER MODEL DATA IS THAT BECAUSE THE
UPPER LOW IS MOVING UP FROM AN UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHERLY TRACK IT IS
DRAGGING A SWATH OF REALLY DRY AIR OFF OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO
NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE DRY SLOT TRACKS...CONVECTION
WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING BANDS. AM
STILL EXPECTING SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES...BUT DO EXPECT SOME AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALTOGETHER.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF
I-35...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN THE
STRONGER LIFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE INTO THE REGION. THIS LIFT WILL
REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT ROTATES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT
WEST AND DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A SOUTH-NORTH TRAINING
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR A FORT WORTH TO KILLEEN LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS BAND MORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAVE IT AFFECTING
JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE WHERE ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.

A BAND OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF
I-35 DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN
AND WEAK FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL NOT
SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ORGANIZED LIFT SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS LOW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT RAMPS UP OVER THE AREA WHEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO INTENSIFY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AND SO WILL THE AXIS OF RAIN. SINCE THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
NOT CLEAR THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME LIGHT OVER-RUNNING ACTIVITY BEHIND
THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY THESE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF
I-20. RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER INCH NORTH TO 1 INCH SOUTH.

PREFER THE ECMWF/GEM FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS RAINY SUNDAY FORECAST IS
VIEWED AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 WITH CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WARM SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON BRINGING THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IN
AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1252 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

CONCERNS...TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN SOUTH OF KACT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KLZZ TO KUTS
LINE...AT MIDDAY. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP  OVER
ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING...03-05Z...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMES OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. WE EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE OFF/ON THROUGH 09Z. THE 09-16Z TIME FRAME
COULD BE THE WINDOW OF GREATEST LIFT...THUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
AREAS CLOSER TO KACT THAN ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL START EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS RAIN WILL
END AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. EXPECTING VFR CIGS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID EVENING AS LEAST.

WINDS...A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF DFW AND IS EXPECT
TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...SLOW OR STALL AND THEN
WASH OUT TOMORROW. SO SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT NORTHERLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE
EXPECT THEM TO RETURN WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  68  61  72  58 /  60  60  20  20  60
WACO, TX              60  71  62  76  60 /  70  70  20  20  50
PARIS, TX             55  61  57  67  55 /  50  80  30  20  50
DENTON, TX            55  67  59  73  55 /  60  60  20  20  60
MCKINNEY, TX          56  66  58  71  56 /  60  70  20  20  60
DALLAS, TX            59  69  61  73  59 /  60  70  20  20  60
TERRELL, TX           60  70  61  73  59 /  50  80  20  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         61  70  60  74  61 /  50  80  30  20  50
TEMPLE, TX            61  71  62  75  61 /  70  70  20  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  67  59  75  56 /  60  50  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 343 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Water Vapor satellite shows the large upper level low pressure
spinning just southwest of the Texas Big Bend region late this
afternoon. Models are consistent with tracking this weakening system
into West Central Texas tonight and then away from the area on
Wednesday. Large area of mainly light rainfall continues across a
large portion of the area this afternoon, producing rainfall totals
of less than one tenth of an inch.

Models have been fairly consistent with the track of the low. This
would place the area from San Angelo south and west into a dry slot
for much of tonight and the day on Wednesday, with the better lift
to the southeast and east ahead of the low, and to the northwest in
the deformation zone. HRRR shows a large area of convection
redeveloping to the southwest, but not sure that`s going to happen
with the extensive cloud cover that extends as far south as the Rio
Grande. At this point, will assume some widespread rain for much of
West Central Texas, with a relative lull with only scattered
activity from San Angelo southwest into Ozona and Sonora.

For Wednesday, much of West Central Texas will be under the low
itself or under the upper level dry slot. Best lift will exit the
eastern counties from Brownwood to Junction during the morning
hours. Thus, best PoPs to the east will dry conditions returning for
most areas for the afternoon. May be hard pressed to get rid of
cloud cover though and expect it to take much of the day before
clouds break.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

The next upper level trough will swing across the Plains Thursday,
sending a cold front south into the Big Country Thursday night, then
through the rest of the area Friday. In the meantime, an upper level
low will be located across Baja California, which is forecast to
trek across Central Texas Saturday. Ahead of this feature,
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft along with the
aforementioned cold front will result in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday. High end chance
PoPs were continued for much of West Central Texas Thursday night,
with the better rain chances shifting to the southern half of the
area on Friday.

As previously mentioned, the upper level low across Baja California
will open up and move across Central Texas on Saturday. The current
forecast track of this system favors the heaviest precipitation
across our southern counties and south into Central Texas. PoPs
Friday night and Saturday will range from chance across the Big
Country to likely across the Interstate 10 corridor. Rain chances
will decrease Saturday evening as the upper level system moves east
of the region.

Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be above normal, generally
in the upper 70s to near 80. The forecast cloud cover/precipitation
on Friday/Saturday will result in high temperatures generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect near normal temperatures for the
first part of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and overnight lows in the 40s. Models are indicating another upper
level trough swinging across the Southern Plains early next week,
possibly bringing a chance of rain to the eastern half of West
Central Texas. For now, PoPs were left out of the forecast and will
continue to monitor on future trends.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  67  53  76  52 /  70  30  10  20  50
San Angelo  51  70  55  80  55 /  60  20  10  20  50
Junction  53  71  58  80  59 /  60  40  10  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/Daniels






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 329 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

ACTIVE AND DIFFICULT FORECAST PERIOD NEXT 24 HOURS THAT DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS FROM
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WELL TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO
CONTINUES TO ALLOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION OVERTOP LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS IS AIDING A
SLOWLY EASTWARD PROGRESSING LIGHT RAIN BAND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WHICH AS
MITIGATED MUCH OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER RAP/NAM OUTPUT AND SOME EVIDENCE
IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF STRONGER NE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE CURRENT MOISTURE PLUME. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE BAND EAST
BUT AS IT DOES SO IT MAY OUTPACE THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT SUPPORT AND WEAKEN. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS
WITH HRRR NOW STARTING TO FALL INTO THAT CAMP. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK
LOW-LVL INSTABILITY EXISTS FARTHER EAST AND THIS COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN THE BAND UNTIL CONDITIONS COOL PAST SUNSET.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS DEPICT
REGENERATING ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. RAP/NAM MASS
FIELDS SHOW SUPPORTIVE LOW-LVL CONVERGENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
COUPLETS THAT FURTHER SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. LOOKING AT WATER
VAPOR...AN AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT IS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
EXTENDING BACK TO THE PACIFIC COAST AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE
STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOCALIZED VORT MAX THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM. PER THE GFS...H3 AND H5 WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS 100 KT AND NEAR 50-60 KTS RESPECTIVELY
COINCIDENTALLY WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH PWATS 1.3-1.5"...SOME
RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER TOTALS AND SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IMPACTS. HEAVY
RAINFALL RISK WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
STRONGER LIFT MOVES EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INITIALLY THURSDAY BUT MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
THE REGION.

A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MID-DAY FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND SW SOUTHERN BRANCH
EMBEDDED H5 IMPULSES PROMOTING MID AND DEEP LAYER LIFT SHOULD
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.3-1.7"...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AS SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. ANOTHER LATITUDINALLY DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY...FURTHER
TEMPORALY EXTENDING THE ASCENT AND GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT HWO. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE BASE OF TROUGH AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE
REGION.

THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A DRIER TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH EC ATTEMPTING TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH
GFS HAVING IT WELL NORTH GIVEN BIG DIFFERENCES ON NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING STRENGTH. MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTANCY WILL BE NEEDED
BEOFRE FALLING IN LINE WITH A PARTICULAR SOLUTION AND WENT WITH A
LONG TERM BLEND. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  74  61  77  61 /  80  70  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  73  61  76  61 /  80  70  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  74  62  77  61 /  80  60  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  72  59  76  59 /  80  60  20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           59  78  62  81  63 /  30  20  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  72  61  76  60 /  80  70  20  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  75  62  79  62 /  80  50  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  74  62  76  61 /  80  60  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  75  63  76  62 /  70  60  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       60  74  63  77  62 /  80  60  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           61  75  63  78  62 /  80  50  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER
CIGS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF RAIN THAT MOVED
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE THE CIGS...LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION.
ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION. FIRST ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD PROGRESS TOWARDS SAN ANTONIO BETWEEN 19Z-21Z AND 22Z-00Z
FOR AUSTIN. SECOND ROUND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KDRT BETWEEN 02Z-06Z
THEN SPREAD EAST AND IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS STARTING AROUND
05Z. LIKELY TO SEE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE S/SE AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

UPDATE...GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SLIGHT POP
INCREASES AND DECREASES REGIONALLY TO BETTER TIME THE RAIN BAND
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE EXPIRED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH
IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST HOUR. UPDATES ARE OUT AND
UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

DISCUSSION...THE DENSE FOG IN SE ZONES AND ISOLATED AREAS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH MOST
READINGS NOW ABOVE 1SM. THIS TREND WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING. A LIGHT RAIN BAND IN NOTED ON REGIONAL
RADARS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT IS SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTH
AND EAST. DEEP SOUTHERLY COLUMN FLOW WILL KEEP EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE BAND SLOW THROUGH THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES TRENDS...HAVE SLIGHTLY CUT BACK ON POPS (-10%) IN EASTERN
AREAS NOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT INCREASES
(+10%) FOR WEST-CENTRAL LOCATIONS. LATEST HRRR...TEXAS TECH
WRF...AND 12Z NAM HAVE BAND ENTERING THE I-35 CORRIDOR 2-4PM OVER
BEXAR AND TOWARDS AUSTIN BY 5-7PM. SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS BAND BUT MUCAPE LOOKS TO
INCREASE MORE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SECOND
POTENTIAL ROUND. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HANDLES THIS SITUATION
WELL AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND THERE. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE
MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE AND MOVING NORTH. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BEING TO ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF KDRT WITHIN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINAL
BY MID AFTERNOON KEEPING THE TERMINAL IN MVFR CIG CATEGORY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND BACK TO VFR AFTER DARK.

FOR THE I35 TERMINALS...LIFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL PERSIST UNTIL
RAIN ARRIVE AROUND MID DAY. CIGS WILL ACTUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
EVEN WITH THE RAIN AT FIRST. HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PERIODICALLY REDUCE VIS AND CIGS SO
INCLUDED PROB30 AT KSAT/KSSF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN POTENTIAL
SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL I35
TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4
OF A MILE AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z /10 AM/.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT WITH TWO MAIN AREAS
OF SATURATION ONGOING IN THE COLUMN. FIRST IS ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE NEARLY SATURATED AS WELL
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE NEARLY SATURATED...ALL THAT REMAINS IS THE MID LEVELS
WHICH REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 700 MB RH
VALUES IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR. THE
RAP IS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SATURATION AT 700 MB FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 16Z.

NOW WE KNOW WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
WILL OCCUR...THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE DEEP LIFT ARRIVE
TO THE AREA AND HOW LONG THE LIFTING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED EAST OF BAJA
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. LAST NIGHT THERE WERE SOME MODELS WHICH
MOVED THE CENTER OF THE LOW NEAR DEL RIO WHILE SOME MOVED THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS. A 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS
GIVES US A GOOD IDEA ON THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE RIDGE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS NNW INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI RAOBS HAD SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
WHICH INDICATES THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING OR BUILDING
WEST. UPPER AIR SITES IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500 HEIGHT AND THIS IS WHERE THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD WANT TO GO. MOST IF NOT ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AND HAS THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION IS SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH
THE LOW MOVING TO THE NNE THE BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW- LEVEL
CONFLUENCE SHOULD SET UP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOME UPPER
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF HIGHER RAINFALL. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL INITIALLY FALL
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 83 AND I-35/37 CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY
ONCE THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE. WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST...THIS ZONE OF N-S LIFT WILL BE SLOW
TO SHIFT EAST BUT WILL SLOWLY DO SO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING IT EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR. WILL
SHOW THIS EXPECTED PROGRESSION IN THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS INITIAL AREA OF RAINFALL DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST...THE
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS ON ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING AN ENHANCED VORT MAX ROTATING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...MOVING INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS/NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY OUR ONLY
CLUE TO THIS FEATURE WOULD BE LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE AN ENHANCEMENT CURRENTLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THIS IS WHAT THE
ECMWF IS PICKING UP ON. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING AND THAT IS INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ACTIVITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO WARRANT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS. WEAK LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER. REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS...THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WHERE THE ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
SHOULD SEE AN AVERAGE OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS WITH A BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVERALL AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS REGENERATION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
TOTALS COULD GO UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO. THIS AREA DID NOT
SEE AS MUCH WITH THE LAST EVENT AND CAN EASILY TAKE THESE TOTALS.
HOWEVER...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OR
POSSIBLE EASTWARD SHIFT WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN TO AREA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN DID FALL LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. THIS PERIOD WILL SERVE AS
A TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LOWS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT THIS FOCUS WILL QUICKLY BE LOST AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE POST FRONTAL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR IS LIFTED ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. THERE
STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE THE 850 FRONT MAKES IT TO THE AREA
AND THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LIFT LEADING TO A
BAND OF HEAVIER TOTALS FALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE SPECIFICS REGARDING WHERE THIS
WILL OCCUR. PW VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT AS
WELL. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH THIS SECOND EVENT BUT SOME
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND
WHERE. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WOULD PRIMARILY BE TO RIVERS FROM
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS. CAPE VALUES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT AS WELL...BUT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED.

RAIN SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF IS
SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME DUE TO
SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  59  73  60  76 /  60  70  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  59  73  60  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  60  75  60  76 /  80  80  60  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  57  72  58  75 /  60  70  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  58  77  60  81 /  50  30  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  59  72  59  75 /  50  70  60  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  59  75  60  78 /  80  70  50  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  60  74  60  76 /  60  80  60  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  62  73  62  75 /  40  60  60  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  60  74  61  76 /  90  80  50  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  60  75  62  77 /  90  80  50  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...10
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1143 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

WYDOT WEBCAMS SHOW NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOG/DRIZZLE SITUATION
LATE THIS MORNING. IN FACT...CONDITIONS HAVE ACTUALLY WORSENED
EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE. HRRR AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO BELIEVE
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ADD CYS
TO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND EXTEND ALL ZONES UNTIL 19Z. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CWA. WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW THROUGH PEAK HEATING...CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND OUR
RESULTING HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

TODAY...LOOKING AT WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION WEBCAMS...
OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE...IS WORKING OUT WELL. LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG AT
ALMOST ALL OF THE SUMMIT WEBCAMS...AND THIS QUITE UNDERSTANDABLE
WITH 330 AM CEILINGS AT LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE AT 900 FEET AND 500
FEET AGL...RESPECTIVELY AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH AT LARAMIE
AS THE COLD SHALLOW AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE SUMMIT AND INTO THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
9 AM. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ELSEWHERE RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND WITH DECENT MIXING...AREAS OF FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL LIKELY SUFFICE THROUGH MID MORNING.

RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH RETURN SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH
COOL AIR CONTINUING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHEREAS...WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHERE
COLD AIR WILL BE EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR SCOURED OUT ACROSS THE
LARAMIE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
INTERSTATE 25. WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.

WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO WITH THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPEST LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OROGRAPHICS AND SOME WEAK DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY...SIERRA
MADRE AND SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...MOVES INTO WESTERN WYOMING...WITH BEST
700-500 MB AND 500-300 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND COMBINED WITH ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
SEE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY DUE TO LOW QPF. BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS SUGGEST
ARES OF FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW...ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT LOOKING TO
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MINIMAL THO WITH JET SUBSIDENCE AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE OVERHEAD. TEMPS ARE LOOKING TO BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL FAVOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN-SNOW IN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE ALONG WITH BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE...AND SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO BE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LESS ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
SETTLES NW-SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER STILL DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE
EMBEDDED VORTICITY AND THUS OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE STALLED SFC TROUGH.
SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE UNTIL IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT CYS...EXPECT FOG AND
LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH 20-21Z. VFR CIGS WITH BASES
4-7 THOUSAND FEET WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT SITES TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO 25 KTS OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT TUE MAR 17 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITIES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL INCREASE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ116>118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN