Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
253 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA,
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE RUNS PRODUCE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP GENERALLY FROM SUSANVILLE-GERLACH NORTHWARD
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 0.10 INCH. THEREFORE WE
HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES IN THESE AREAS MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
HIGH ELEVATION WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM RENO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. 700 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO 50-55 KT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A STABLE LAYER IS INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN
700-600 MB, WITH WIND SPEEDS NEARLY CONSTANT BETWEEN THE BOTTOM
AND TOP OF THIS LAYER. FOR STRONGER WIND EVENTS WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENTS, THERE WOULD BE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IN
THE UPPER PORTION OF THE STABLE LAYER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH A THICK LAYER
OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD LIMIT GUST
SPEEDS BY A FEW MPH. AT THIS TIME WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY BUT IF THE NEXT GUIDANCE DATA SHOWS SIMILAR WIND
FIELDS AND/OR REDUCED CLOUD COVER, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
EVEN WITHOUT AN ADVISORY, WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
ONGOING VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A NARROW BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND INLAND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CA. THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM CARRY THIS BAND INTO NORTHEAST CA-FAR
NORTHWEST NV, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS BAND WEST OF THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND LASSEN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
THROUGH MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST COULD
PRODUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW AMONG THE GUIDANCE SOURCES, BUT WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET SO TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS. IF THE
MORE ACTIVE SHOWER SCENARIO OCCURS ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL MORE
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOW IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE. IT DOES ORIGINATE OVER THE PACIFIC AND HAS MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN IT, WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT MAINTAIN A MOISTURE TAP AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE A
HUGE PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME AT
THIS POINT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING INSTABILITY BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE 500 LOW AND A VORT MAX, BUT WE WILL
RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE TROUGH EXITS THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY. BY FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW RESULTS
WITH SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER WEAK, BUT COLDER, SYSTEM TO
PUSH INTO THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEAGER MOISTURE
TAP TO WORK WITH, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TYPE EVENT. HAVE EXTENDED THE COVERAGE FOR SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA, AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA, BUT LIMITED CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. DJ
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING REPORTED EVERYWHERE, BUT PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A KSVE-KLOL LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40
KTS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS WITH UP TO 70 KTS ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES
LEADING TO TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLE ROTOR ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT IN ADDITION TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. LLWS IS UNLIKELY DUE TO SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
AND DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET AGL. DJ
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND THIS EVENING...ENDING WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET. COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT GIVES WAY TO A PLEASANT DAY
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD FOR BOSTON ***
AS OF 7 PM...2.9 INCHES HAS BEEN RECORDED AT LOGAN BRINGING THE
SEASONAL TOTAL TO 108.6 INCHES WHICH BREAKS THE ALL TIME SEASONAL
SNOW RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 107.6 INCHES SET IN THE
WINTER OF 95-96.
715 PM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW IN
THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUING TO ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS E MA THIS
EVENING. RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREAL EXTENT/INTENSITY OF
THE SNOW AND HAS IT TAPERING OFF AND ENDING FROM S TO N NEXT HOUR
OR 2 AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
AND EXPECTED NEAR TERM TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DWPTS DROP
INTO THE LOW 20S AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW-LVL INSTABILITY IS LOST DUE
TO SUNSET. THEREFORE...EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DARK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AS WELL.
HOWEVER...LEFTOVER PRES GRADIENT AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE W
WILL KEEP NW FLOW STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT MINS TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
HIGH PRES DOMINATES THEN SLIDES TO THE NE BY MON EVENING. DRY WX
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE QUICK
PASSAGE OF THE HIGH...LOW LVL TEMPS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO DROP AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE. THEREFORE...PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -2C TO 0C. ALTHOUGH MIXING IS
LIKELY TO FALL JUST SHY OF THIS LEVEL...MIXING TO H9 SHOULD STILL
YIELD LOW-UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY MAKING
IT TO THE 50S.
TOMORROW NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE LOADS FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUE. GIVEN THE
DRY DWPTS TO START THE EVENING...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE
MORNING HOURS FOR SOME OF THE FALLING PRECIP ALOFT TO BE OBSERVED
AT THE SFC. WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE AND MID LVL F-GEN
FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN WRN MA AND CT BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE MID LVL WARM AIR
STAYS IN TACT...SO IT WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AS PRECIP STARTS. MAY
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WHERE
THE SFC TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW FREEZING THANKS TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WOULD BE...SO
NO ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE ONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR
SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NW MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUE
* BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
* COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT SNE LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT
OVERVIEW...
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS DOMINANT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ACROSS
THE GT LAKES TO NEW ENG AS DUAL VORTEX SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM POLAR VORTEX AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEW ENG WILL BRING A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
AROUND MIDWEEK. THEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE WATCHING A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE LAKES AND HOW MUCH
THIS BACKS THE FLOW TO ALLOW A SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE TO LIFT NWD
INTO NEW ENG. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM ALL SHOW COASTAL WAVE TRACKING TO NEAR
THE BENCHMARK FRI NIGHT WHICH BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO NEW ENG. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIGGING THROUGH THE
LAKES AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BUT DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT OF
MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS SO WE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FROPA IS SLOWER AS UPSTREAM ENERGY
STILL BACK ACROSS THE LAKES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MEANS MORE
CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MILDER TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S EXPECTED. TURNING BLUSTERY AND MUCH
COLDER TUE NIGHT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT MAINLY DRY. COLDEST DAY WILL BE
WED WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C WHICH WILL YIELD MAXES
IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. A BIT MILDER THU BUT TEMPS STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING NEAR
BENCHMARK AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIP LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT. GFS COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY
SNOW...BUT ECMWF AND GGEM ARE WARMER AND WOULD SUGGEST A CHANGE TO
RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. STILL AN UNCERTAIN PTYPE FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT. LOOKING AHEAD TO SAT NIGHT AND SUN...DISCOUNTED GFS
SOLUTION OF ROBUST FRONTAL WAVE AND LEANED TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH HAS SUPPORT OF MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ANOTHER
FROPA WITH CHC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MVFR/IFR SNOW IN E MA WILL
COME TO AN END 01-02Z FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. CAPE COD WILL BE LAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. W-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS SHIFT TO SW BY TOMORROW EVENING BUT MAINLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS. IMPROVING TO VFR
01-02Z.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. GUSTY
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT WITH G25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
WED.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATE FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT WITH SNOW/RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS PICK UP THIS EVENING ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE EXCEPT
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS MENTIONED.
SEAS INCREASE...PEAKING BETWEEN 10-12 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALES END EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT WINDS WILL TAKE UNTIL ABOUT MID
DAY TO FULLY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. IN ANY CASE...SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH. THEREFORE...EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO FOLLOW THE GALES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW
AND INTO TOMORROW EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW
TUE...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SCA GUSTS WITH GALES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E WATERS.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER
THE WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF POSSIBLE
COASTAL STORM. A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ233>235-237-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
859 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE RAIN MAY
FREEZE ON CONTACT IN SOME OUTLYING AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 859 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS...WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EXTENDING
SW INTO MEXICO. SOME OF THE STRN STREAM ENERGY IS LIFTING N/NE
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SFC TROUGH OR
WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FOCUSING SOME
WARM ADVECTION PCPN.
STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS
PREDICTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE. WITH TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE 1-3 DEGREES C RANGE AT 925-850 HPA...THIS PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THE
EXACT SFC TEMPS.
WITH SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S...AND WET BULBING NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BASED ON THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHC FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED LOCATION IN THE SRN DACKS OR SRN VT...WHERE IT WILL
PERSIST THE LONGEST.
THE WARM COLUMN AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN SFC LAYER SHOULD YIELD
PLAIN RAINFALL EVERYWHERE BY LUNCH TIME. THE REMAINING AREA IN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11 AM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
IS ON TRACK.
THE BEST QG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE NRN STREAM CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CLOSED COMPACT H500
CIRCULATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
LIFT FOR THE NRN ZONES WILL BE IN THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE DAMP CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F IN
THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE SCOOTS TO THE ERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND THE NRN STREAM SFC WAVE OR SECONDARY LOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE H500 LOW
MOVES OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION CLOSE TO 06Z/SUN. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A BEST CHC FOR A COATING TO AN INCH OR
ISOLATED TWO OF SNOW. NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION /LITTLE TO NONE/ IS
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SFC
TEMPS HANGING IN THE LOWER TO M30S. THE BEST CHC FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS TO COOL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE SNOW WILL BE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER FORCING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...AND UPPER
DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE
-30C OR SO COLD POOL MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AT H500. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SCT SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT OR GREATER /GENERALLY
UNDER A HALF AN INCH/. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE REGION. MONDAY WILL START OUT NICE WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO MID AND U40S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. A CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
SCT RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY AND COLDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO L30S OVER
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER ITS AMPLITUDE IS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN DUE TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHILE THE THREAT HAS ENDED AT KALB
AND KPOU AIRPORTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THIS MORNING SO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN
RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KGFL AND KPSF. IT WILL TAKE LONGER AT KGFL...BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE MOIST
MILDER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS. HOWEVER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD. MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTER BACK IN SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDRESSED CHANCES WITH VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS. A WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY MARCH
16TH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS THAN TWO TENTHS FOR THE NORTHERN BASINS. QPF
AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVER LOWER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN SOME VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY FLOODING IN THE ALY HSA.
SOME MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES OCCUR. STEVENSON DAM IS THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT IS FORECASTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE ON THE
GEFS...NAEFS AND SREFS. FLOWS THERE ARE CONTROLLED. THE ONLY RIVER
POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT EAGLE BRIDGE THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS STILL ICE COVERED AS
WELL.
ICE BREAK UP IS STILL A CHALLENGE SINCE QPF WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SOAR OUT OF THE U30S TO M40S WITH THIS
EVENT. IF RIVER ICE WERE TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC
BASINS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE JAMS ON SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS
DUE TO THE RAIN FORECASTED. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENT. SOME URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS WELL...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW...ICE...AND DEBRIS BLOCK
STORM DRAINS.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U30S TO MID
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MID MARCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082>084.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
705 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BEFORE NOONTIME. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS...WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EXTENDING
SW INTO MEXICO. SOME OF THE STRN STREAM ENERGY IS LIFTING N/NE
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SFC TROUGH OR
WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FOCUSING SOME
WARM ADVECTION PCPN.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG ON THE 290K
SFC...BUT THE PCPN IS FILLING IN NICELY OVER CNTRL-SRN NY AND NJ
THIS HOUR. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY OVER THE REGION WITH
SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND M20S. THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY
SATURATE BTWN 630 AM AND 8 AM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTHWARD. THE WET BULB
COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 33-36F RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF FREEZING RAIN
WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 8 AM
AND 11 AM. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BASED ON THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A TRACE TO
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHC FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH WOULD BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION IN THE SRN DACKS OR SRN
VT...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST.
THE WARM COLUMN AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN SFC LAYER SHOULD YIELD
PLAIN RAINFALL EVERYWHERE BY LUNCH TIME. THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS
UNTIL 11 AM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS ON TRACK.
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPED BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM AS TEMPS BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN THE MID TO U30S.
THE BEST QG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE NRN STREAM CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CLOSED COMPACT H500
CIRCULATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
LIFT FOR THE NRN ZONES WILL BE IN THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE DAMP CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F IN
THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE SCOOTS TO THE ERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND THE NRN STREAM SFC WAVE OR SECONDARY LOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE H500 LOW
MOVES OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION CLOSE TO 06Z/SUN. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A BEST CHC FOR A COATING TO AN INCH OR
ISOLATED TWO OF SNOW. NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION /LITTLE TO NONE/ IS
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SFC
TEMPS HANGING IN THE LOWER TO M30S. THE BEST CHC FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS TO COOL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE SNOW WILL BE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER FORCING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...AND UPPER
DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE
-30C OR SO COLD POOL MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AT H500. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SCT SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT OR GREATER /GENERALLY
UNDER A HALF AN INCH/. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE REGION. MONDAY WILL START OUT NICE WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO MID AND U40S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. A CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
SCT RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY AND COLDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO L30S OVER
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER ITS AMPLITUDE IS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN DUE TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHILE THE THREAT HAS ENDED AT KALB
AND KPOU AIRPORTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THIS MORNING SO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN
RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KGFL AND KPSF. IT WILL TAKE LONGER AT KGFL...BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE MOIST
MILDER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS. HOWEVER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD. MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTER BACK IN SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDRESSED CHANCES WITH VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS. A WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY MARCH
16TH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS THAN TWO TENTHS FOR THE NORTHERN BASINS. QPF
AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVER LOWER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVIC AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN SOME VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY FLOODING IN THE ALY HSA.
SOME MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES OCCUR. STEVENSON DAM IS THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT IS FORECASTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE ON THE
GEFS...NAEFS AND SREFS. FLOWS THERE ARE CONTROLLED. THE ONLY RIVER
POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT EAGLE BRIDGE THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS STILL ICE COVERED AS
WELL.
ICE BREAK UP IS STILL A CHALLENGE SINCE QPF WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SOAR OUT OF THE U30S TO M40S WITH THIS
EVENT. IF RIVER ICE WERE TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC
BASINS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE JAMS ON SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS
DUE TO THE RAIN FORECASTED. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENT. SOME URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS WELL...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW...ICE...AND DEBRIS BLOCK
STORM DRAINS.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U30S TO MID
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MID MARCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN TODAY...STARTING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING ***
7 AM UPDATE...RAIN AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS ON SCHEDULE
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WITH AREAS
THAT WERE ABLE TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT JUST BELOW FREEZING AND AREAS
WHERE THE WIND KEPT UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THUS FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE PATCHY. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THIS MORNING...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NYC AREA AT 330 AM WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS OF NY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/NMM/ARW/HRRR AND RAP WERE VERIFYING NICELY AT 06Z WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THESE MODELS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO WESTERN MA/CT AND RI UNTIL ABOUT
12Z...THEN BY 14Z-15Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST INCLUDING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.
THIS SLOWER PRECIP ONSET WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORTER DURATION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND ALSO IMPACT A SMALLER AREA. THUS HIGHEST RISK
AREAS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA WITH LOWER RISK SOUTHWARD
INTO CT/RI AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO GLAZE THE ROADS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS.
HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ADVISORY MENTIONED
HIGHEST RISK AREAS WILL BE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
FROM THE START.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION /RRQ OF 150+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET/ IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS INDUCES SECONDARY LOW PRES OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT SSW 850 JET ADVECTING PWATS UP TO +2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT NOON TO 4 PM ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THUS EXPECTING A COLD
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUID REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LESS RAINFALL NORTH OF THE PIKE
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. NOT ENOUGH TO INDUCE RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH LITTLE RELEASE FROM SNOWPACK AS DEW PTS
ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE L40S. HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR MINOR/NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS OF
PROVIDENCE/CRANSTON/NEW BEDFORD/FALL RIVER AND OTHER TOWNS ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ***
TONIGHT...
ANY STEADY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AS LFQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE LFQ THERE IS
NOTICEABLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE WHICH ENHANCES QG FORCING. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
MODEST SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND
MAY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY
STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MA AND RI.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES DURING THE DAY IN MID MARCH CAN
BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND DAYS GETTING LONGER.
THUS AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY IS REQUIRED. SO MINOR ACCUM
MAYBE CONFINED TO NON PAVED SURFACES. AS FOR SPECIFIC POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MA AND
RI. THE ONE WILD CARD HERE ARE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT. THUS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY HAVE A GREATER RESPONSE THAN MODEL QPF
SUGGEST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN CT/MA AND RI. EC SLIGHTLY LESS WITH ABOUT 0.15 INCHES. THUS
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL SNEAKY EVENT UNFOLD.
MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...
BUT TEMPS COOLING TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. ALSO
BECOMING BLUSTERY LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
OVERALL WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
TODAY...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
S-SW WINDS BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS AROUND 12Z SOUTH ZONES AND 15Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
TONIGHT...
STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE EVENING AND IS REPLACED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW PRES OVERHEAD BUT BECOMING WNW AS LOW
RACES FROM SOUTHEAST MA TO NOVA SCOTIA.
SUNDAY...
LOW EVOLVES INTO A GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA INCREASING THE
RISK FOR NORTHERLY GALES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS. HENCE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
013>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
354 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN TODAY...STARTING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING ***
THIS MORNING...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NYC AREA AT 330 AM WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS OF NY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/NMM/ARW/HRRR AND RAP WERE VERIFYING NICELY AT 06Z WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THESE MODELS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO WESTERN MA/CT AND RI UNTIL ABOUT
12Z...THEN BY 14Z-15Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST INCLUDING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.
THIS SLOWER PRECIP ONSET WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORTER DURATION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND ALSO IMPACT A SMALLER AREA. THUS HIGHEST RISK
AREAS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA WITH LOWER RISK SOUTHWARD
INTO CT/RI AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO GLAZE THE ROADS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS.
HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ADVISORY MENTIONED
HIGHEST RISK AREAS WILL BE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
FROM THE START.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION /RRQ OF 150+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET/ IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS INDUCES SECONDARY LOW PRES OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT SSW 850 JET ADVECTING PWATS UP TO +2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT NOON TO 4 PM ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THUS EXPECTING A COLD
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUID REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LESS RAINFALL NORTH OF THE PIKE
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. NOT ENOUGH TO INDUCE RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH LITTLE RELEASE FROM SNOWPACK AS DEW PTS
ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE L40S. HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR MINOR/NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS OF
PROVIDENCE/CRANSTON/NEW BEDFORD/FALL RIVER AND OTHER TOWNS ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ***
TONIGHT...
ANY STEADY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AS LFQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE LFQ THERE IS
NOTICEABLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE WHICH ENHANCES QG FORCING. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
MODEST SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND
MAY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY
STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MA AND RI.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES DURING THE DAY IN MID MARCH CAN
BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND DAYS GETTING LONGER.
THUS AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY IS REQUIRED. SO MINOR ACCUM
MAYBE CONFINED TO NON PAVED SURFACES. AS FOR SPECIFIC POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MA AND
RI. THE ONE WILD CARD HERE ARE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT. THUS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY HAVE A GREATER RESPONSE THAN MODEL QPF
SUGGEST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN CT/MA AND RI. EC SLIGHTLY LESS WITH ABOUT 0.15 INCHES. THUS
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL SNEAKY EVENT UNFOLD.
MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...
BUT TEMPS COOLING TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. ALSO
BECOMING BLUSTERY LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
OVERALL WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
S-SW WINDS BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS AROUND 12Z SOUTH ZONES AND 15Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
TONIGHT...
STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE EVENING AND IS REPLACED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW PRES OVERHEAD BUT BECOMING WNW AS LOW
RACES FROM SOUTHEAST MA TO NOVA SCOTIA.
SUNDAY...
LOW EVOLVES INTO A GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA INCREASING THE
RISK FOR NORTHERLY GALES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS. HENCE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
013>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
314 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD...SOAKING RAIN TODAY...PROBABLY
STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ***
945 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS
BRING PRECIP INTO CT AND SW RI 7A-8A THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 11 AM. HOWEVER WHEN COMPARING THE
RAP AND HRRR UPSTREAM ACROSS PA...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW
ADVECTING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE PHILLY
AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT/PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PRECIP TIMING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MODIFY
HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SO THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS THE SAME...A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GREATEST
RISK WEST OF I-495 AND I-90 IN MA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE RISK
DIMINISHES GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
LOWEST WET BULB TEMPS THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY
WITH DEW PTS OF 7 AT ORH AND 6 AT FIT! EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=================================================================
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY TODAY WILL
BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION TOWARD SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS
THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE/SCOUR OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
SPECIFICALLY THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF MA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CUTTING OFF DOWNWARD WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
DISTINCT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE.
THE DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW
QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION YIELDS LIKELY POPS BY 8 AM SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND RI. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF QPF OFFERS 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 8 AM. THUS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN 09Z-14Z
SAT ACROSS NORTHERN CT/NW RI INTO THE I-495 CORRIDOR /POSSIBLY
THE ROUTE-128 CORRIDOR TOO/ AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA. WHILE ANY ICING SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN...ROAD
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.
BASED ON THE RISK FOR LIGHT ICING...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ***
SATURDAY...
BY 15Z OR SO THE RISK OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FINALLY ERODES.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WATER RELEASE FROM THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00
COMBINED WITH SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE URBAN/STREET FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...SSW WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ016>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>015-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ002>004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
242 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD...SOAKING RAIN TODAY...PROBABLY
STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ***
945 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS
BRING PRECIP INTO CT AND SW RI 7A-8A THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 11 AM. HOWEVER WHEN COMPARING THE
RAP AND HRRR UPSTREAM ACROSS PA...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW
ADVECTING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE PHILLY
AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT/PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PRECIP TIMING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MODIFY
HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SO THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS THE SAME...A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GREATEST
RISK WEST OF I-495 AND I-90 IN MA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE RISK
DIMINISHES GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
LOWEST WET BULB TEMPS THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY
WITH DEW PTS OF 7 AT ORH AND 6 AT FIT! EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=================================================================
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY TODAY WILL
BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION TOWARD SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS
THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE/SCOUR OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
SPECIFICALLY THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF MA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CUTTING OFF DOWNWARD WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
DISTINCT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE.
THE DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW
QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION YIELDS LIKELY POPS BY 8 AM SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND RI. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF QPF OFFERS 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 8 AM. THUS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN 09Z-14Z
SAT ACROSS NORTHERN CT/NW RI INTO THE I-495 CORRIDOR /POSSIBLY
THE ROUTE-128 CORRIDOR TOO/ AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA. WHILE ANY ICING SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN...ROAD
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.
BASED ON THE RISK FOR LIGHT ICING...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ***
SATURDAY...
BY 15Z OR SO THE RISK OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FINALLY ERODES.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WATER RELEASE FROM THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00
COMBINED WITH SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE URBAN/STREET FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
* BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK
OVERVIEW...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER BY MIDWEEK AS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF /2-3SD BELOW
NORMAL/ SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY AND MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS MON
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE INTO
SNE ON THU WHILE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN COLD AND DRY. GFS DOES NOT
HAVE SUPPORT OF GEFS MEAN SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO ECMWF SO WE
LEANED TOWARD THE COLD AND DRY SCENARIO PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH SFC REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND MAY
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN WITH
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN E MA. MINOR ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN E
MA WITH ISOLD 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NE MA. MILDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...BUT TEMPS COOLING
TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BRINGS A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPS MON...THEN A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FROPA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH ECMWF/UKMET
SLOWER THAN GFS/GGEM. LEANED TOWARD QUICKER GFS GIVEN LOW
AMPLITUDE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONT OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE LEADING
TO DRY AND COLDER WEATHER TUESDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WED
WITH 850 MB TEMPS -20C. MAX TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32F.
DISCOUNTED GFS SOLUTION FOR THU AND FOLLOWED ECMWF/GEFS MEAN WHICH
MAINTAINS COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPS MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E MA.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR MON NIGHT IN
RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW GUSTS TO
25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...SSW WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NW WINDS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH G30 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E WATERS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW G35
KT SUN EVENING E MA WATERS.
MONDAY...LEFTOVER SCA GUSTS MON MORNING E WATERS...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WINDS...THEN INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POST FRONTAL NW WINDS. A PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ESPECIALLY E
WATERS WITH SCA GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ016>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>015-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ002>004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE REGION BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW CHANGES WITH QPF TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS. STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE HRRR AND RAP HOURLY AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON ACCOUNT OF THE LOW CLOUDS, RAIN AND CURRENT OBS. ANY
INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS WELL.
PREVIOUS:
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING. A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL MESONET OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH MORE/STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING HELPING TO WARM THE AIR
FROM ALOFT.
CONTINUED THETA-E SURGE TIED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WAA ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING, SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES
IT BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON IS OF CONCERN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...THOUGH WITH A STEEP LOW- LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE WE`LL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TO KEEP US OVERCAST. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FRONT AND THAT
LOOKS TO BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE AREA...AN
ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN.
STILL DO NOT SEE THIS EVENT AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUE THOUGH SOME
MINOR, LOW-LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD HAVE WATER
BACKING UP. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WHICH HELP TO BREAK UP THE
PRECIPITATION A BIT...MORE SHOWERY. COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING THE RAIN TO
COME TO AN END. STILL COULD HAVE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN...LACK OF MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT KEEPS
THEM IN SLIGHT CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH
THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PRESENT AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE
CLOUDS THINNING AND CLEARING...ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY W-NW
WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. BOTH 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE LESS THAN 50 J/KG) DURING PEAK HEATING BUT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE SINCE THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR OUR REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG JET STREAM NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER APPROACHES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PASSES THRU AT NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LOW SINCE THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
BULK OF THE LIFT STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OWING THE STRONG HEATING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD STRETCH WILL BE NOWHERE
NEAR WHAT WE EXPERIENCED COUNTLESS TIMES THIS WINTER AS THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL HELP MODIFY THE COLD AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEG BELOW ON WEDNESDAY AND 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/ FRIDAY.
KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS TRY TO BRING IN OVERRUNNING PRECIP LATER
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR/LIFR. RAIN CONTINUES TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED BREAKS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR PHL, PNE AND TTN HAVE BEEN
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A TIGHT LID
ON THE REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS
NEAR 2KFT MOVE OVERHEAD. THE LOW- LEVEL INVERSION STEEPENS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY KEEPING THE LOW CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A POSSIBILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
MOSTLY SOUTH OF PHL/ILG.
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE CYCLE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOME DRYING TO OCCUR. WINDS VEER
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE A BIT, SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CIGS WITH CAA STRATOCU PREDOMINATELY IN VFR CAT THOUGH IT
HIGH END MVFR CIGS NEAR 3 KFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BREEZY W-NW WINDS
SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 35 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W-SW ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR
EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME NW AGAIN IN WAKE OF FROPA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS BOTH DAYS. FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED THOUGH SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS COMMENCE. WE KEEP SEAS AROUND 4
FEET AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE HELD TO A MINIMUM GIVEN THE WARM AIR
OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS ALLOWING FOR LESS MIXING.
TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE SCA GUSTS FIRST FOLLOWED BY
THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...SCA IS GOOD
THROUGH 6PM SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ON
SUNDAY. BREEZY NW WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25 KT. MIXING WILL MINIMAL
OVER THE COLDER WATERS BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE CLOSE TO
THE COAST. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4-6 FEET FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS. NW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW
SCA OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS SO EVEN WITH
W-SW WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECT GUSTS TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH ON FUTURE
SHIFTS. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN
THE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SAME MODEL SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF 30-40 KT GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ADDED
UNCERTAINTY IF WE WILL GET A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES SINCE THE GFS
HAS TENDED TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE GUSTS IN RECENT GALE EVENTS.
HOWEVER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL MORE FAVORABLE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH COLD AIR MOVING ATOP THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THUS FAR WITH GENERAL
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE
HSA. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED; SIMILAR TO
THE PAST TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE
MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AROUND 00Z WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS WHILE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY. A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH
REGIONAL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD
BE SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL KAPF ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
UPDATE...
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ATLANTIC SHOWERS BUT THOSE HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
AND MAY ONLY EXTEND 20% CHANCE SOUTHWARD TO ACCOMMODATE FOR SOME
WEAK ACTIVITY IN BROWARD COUNTY. DUE TO DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE SOMEWHAT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS AFTER 18Z, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 12Z MFL MORNING SOUNDING
PROFILE WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS UP TO 10K WHERE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSISTS SO THUNDER IS OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
EXTENSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE. MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...AROUND 19-20Z A SOUTHWESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHOWER.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A REVERSAL OF SORTS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLICE OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST, AND A DRIER PUNCH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST LATER
THIS MORNING FROM THE BAHAMAS. WITH A SEA BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST LEADING TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE NAM/GFS BOTH
PAINTING QPF THROUGH THE NW CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE FORECAST TODAY. EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER DAY FOR THE EAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WEST
AND EAST COAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE PWATS, WITH VALUES OF 1.5"
AND 1.0" RESPECTIVELY.
INTO TONIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TOO TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT
THEN ENTERS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE LAKE REGION. THUS, SUNDAY FIGURES TO BE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS, WITH MONDAY THE
START OF A COOLER TREND, CLOSER TO NORMAL. SLIVER OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE THROUGH H7 MAY DELIVER SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL MIDDAY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM
AND HUMID UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED BY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW, PARTLY THE
RESULT OF PLUNGING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA, AND A
RETURN TO A NORTHEAST CONUS COLD TROUGH AS A GYRE SITS OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
MONDAY`S FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL
LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INO THE LOWER 50S BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST, ENDING THE POTENTIAL
COASTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL MEETING SCA CRITERIA JUST OFF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SO THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. SPEEDS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EVEN MORE
SO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A NORTHEASTERLY SHOT OF WIND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BRINGS SUBTLE
E TO SE BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 85 69 81 / 0 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 71 80 / 0 10 20 30
MIAMI 71 85 70 82 / 0 10 20 30
NAPLES 67 84 69 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ATLANTIC SHOWERS BUT THOSE HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
AND MAY ONLY EXTEND 20% CHANCE SOUTHWARD TO ACCOMMODATE FOR SOME
WEAK ACTIVITY IN BROWARD COUNTY. DUE TO DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE SOMEWHAT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS AFTER 18Z, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 12Z MFL MORNING SOUNDING
PROFILE WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS UP TO 10K WHERE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSISTS SO THUNDER IS OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
EXTENSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE. MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...AROUND 19-20Z A SOUTHWESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHOWER.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A REVERSAL OF SORTS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLICE OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST, AND A DRIER PUNCH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST LATER
THIS MORNING FROM THE BAHAMAS. WITH A SEA BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST LEADING TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE NAM/GFS BOTH
PAINTING QPF THROUGH THE NW CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE FORECAST TODAY. EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER DAY FOR THE EAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WEST
AND EAST COAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE PWATS, WITH VALUES OF 1.5"
AND 1.0" RESPECTIVELY.
INTO TONIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TOO TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT
THEN ENTERS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE LAKE REGION. THUS, SUNDAY FIGURES TO BE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS, WITH MONDAY THE
START OF A COOLER TREND, CLOSER TO NORMAL. SLIVER OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE THROUGH H7 MAY DELIVER SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL MIDDAY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM
AND HUMID UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED BY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW, PARTLY THE
RESULT OF PLUNGING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA, AND A
RETURN TO A NORTHEAST CONUS COLD TROUGH AS A GYRE SITS OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
MONDAY`S FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL
LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INO THE LOWER 50S BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST, ENDING THE POTENTIAL
COASTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL MEETING SCA CRITERIA JUST OFF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SO THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. SPEEDS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EVEN MORE
SO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A NORTHEASTERLY SHOT OF WIND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BRINGS SUBTLE
E TO SE BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BACK EDGE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM METTER TOWARDS SYLVANIA.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL PUSH THROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WHERE OCCUR IS STILL DIFFICULT...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEST OF I-95
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WOULD ALSO FAVOR
THIS AREA FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED IN THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WE ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP MID LEVEL
DRYING IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...0-3 KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT A 2 KFT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE FREEZING LEVEL AND THE WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SEEING A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING TOO DEEP. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING HOWEVER AND WE REMAIN
WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM SPC. FINALLY...THERE IS A BIT
OF VEERING IN THE PROFILE SO ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME WEAK ROTATION IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT
THE TORNADO CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
TONIGHT...AFTER CONVECTIVE RAINS MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF
THE CAROLINAS. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WE HELD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND N OF I-16 INTO THE
EVENING BUT END ALL POPS BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PASS INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS OCCURRING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR FOG ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW VEERS TO NW
AND NNW AND DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE OCCURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH THE COMBO OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH DAYS SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST WILL PUSH A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION. A SERIES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HELPING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A MUDDLED PATTERN
WILL POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONT SPUR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE
MVFR BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BANDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER MID AFTERNOON DEEPER MOISTURE
ABATES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SUNDAY. THEREAFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER FROM SE LATE THIS
MORNING TO SW TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POOR MIXING
PROFILES IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ARE EXPECTED OVER
COOLER WATERS. IT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN AND AROUND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
15-20 KT WITH A FEW ISOLATED 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT...THE SLOW TURN TO MORE SSW IN
THE WIND FIELD IS LIKELY A LIMITING FACTOR. RESIDENCE TIMES ARE
INCREASING BUT WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE THE FRONT AND ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR CONDITIONS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST...SO WE ARE STILL IN A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. GIVEN THE LIMITED TIME PERIOD AND SLOWLY VEERING
WINDS...THE ONSET OF FOG HAS BEEN DELAYED TO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THE RISK FOR
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT.
AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY...A NORTHEAST
SURGE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE TIGHTEST NORTHEAST GRADIENT WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER GRADIENT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE BUT IF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS PER THE LATEST GFS WE WOULD
NEED TO EXTEND THE STRONGER WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK.
PATCHY SEA FOG MAY PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BIG CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE LED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECASTS.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IN PLACE OVER PACIFIC AIMED
AT PACNW. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER PACNW HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. RADAR SHOWING RAIN/EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IDAHO BUT MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL
MTNS EVEN PER WEB CAMS. GFS AND NAM SWING FEATURE INTO THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BUT HRRR HOLDS OFF UNTIL NEARLY MIDNIGHT.
COMPROMISED WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY INCREASING AFTER 06Z. STRONGER
FEATURE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THIS IS
WHEN MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE BEGINNING OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER TREND.
DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY TREND HAS BEEN TO
SHOVE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME NORTH. BULK OF MOISTURE RIDES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM CENTER OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. THIS KEEPS EAST
IDAHO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TRAILING
BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT THINS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
SYSTEM EJECTS EAST...TILTING ACROSS EAST IDAHO LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL
ADDRESS WATER ISSUES RELATED TO THIS CHANGE IN THE HYDROLOGY
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW. MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS REMAIN
MURKY HEADING TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND NAM TRY TO SWING AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER GULF ALASKA TROUGH SWINGS INLAND NEAR
SEATTLE/VANCOUVER. BOTH DEVELOP PRECIP BUT VASTLY DIFFERENT IN
WHERE AND HOW MUCH. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM AND THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEMS...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN WEAK POPS NEAR CLIMO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DMH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE
A SPLITTING SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY MAY BE DRIER...BUT HOW DRY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF OVERALL SEEMS TO BE QUICKER
WITH THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD VS. THE GFS. IF YOU LOOK AT
ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD SHOWING UP BETWEEN ALL OF THEM.
THAT SAID...THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND STORM MOVING
IN. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL IN THE END. THE ONLY
REAL CHANGES WE MADE WERE SUBTLE AND TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...WE CONTINUE TO SEE A BIT OF SUN MIXED WITH HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. WITH THE TREND
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE ONLY PLACE WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT VCSH IS KSUN. THE WIND HAS ALSO PICKED UP IN SOME
PLACES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THOSE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND DROP OF A BIT. KPIH AND KBYI WILL BE
PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT VS KIDA DUE TO GAP/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST...EVEN AT KSUN. IT IS POSSIBLE IS
SHOWERS ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OR PASS OVER THE AIRPORT
THERE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP. EVERYTHING SHOULD BE
LIFTING EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING US WITH
JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KBYI...KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST MUCH DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. RAINFALL
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN
HALF OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SERIES OF
STATEMENTS OUTLINING THREAT FOR RAINFALL BUT HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY
HEAVY WORDING. WARM TEMPS STILL LEADING TO MELT OFF OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SNOWPACK. MINOR SHEET FLOODING AND RISES IN AREA
STREAMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREATS APPEAR
TO BE MINIMAL WITH THE NEW MODEL SOLUTIONS. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...1111 AM CDT
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO 60...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 12 UTC MORNING ROABS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST
THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE OF REALITY...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURES COMING IN ABOUT 2 DEGREE C HIGHER THAN THOSE
FORECAST. GIVEN THIS...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THUS FAR THIS
MORNING...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS THE POTENTIAL BEHAVIOR OF A LAKE BREEZE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN
THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS IS
BEGINNING TO ALLOW SOME ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK COUNTY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AS AREAS
FARTHER INLAND CONTINUE TO MIX HIGHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SOME GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORE IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE MAIN LAKE COOLING
MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORES OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
REGION LIES BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND. GUST SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WHEN THEY OCCUR. GRADIENT HAS BEEN WEAK ENOUGH TO ENABLE LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORE. BKN MVFR STRATOCU ALONG
EASTERN WI AS FAR SOUTH AS KETB NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO
NORTHERN IL...BUT FEW TO POSSIBLY SCT CU AT ~3500 FT MAY DEVELOP.
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT TO MDW AND ORD BY THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS OF ABOUT 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15
mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning.
Last remaining fog has dissipated according to surface
observations, although considerable trailing high/cirrus cloud
cover remains, and a few light showers remain south of I-70. High
temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer.
Forecast is on track with these features and no significant
updates are needed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR conditions with north winds 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts
expected until 00Z. Winds decreasing overnight and shifting to NW
with VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS OF 300-340 DEG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15
TO 18 KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET POST FROPA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INITIALLY
BE ORIENTED IN THE 330-340 DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TOWARDS 320 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW
10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1020 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15
mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning.
Last remaining fog has dissipated according to surface
observations, although considerable trailing high/cirrus cloud
cover remains, and a few light showers remain south of I-70. High
temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer.
Forecast is on track with these features and no significant
updates are needed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected to become VFR in the
12z-14z time frame at CMI and DEC as drier air advects southeast
into the area. After that, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary has pushed
into parts of central and east central IL as of 11z and will
continue to track east and southeast over the next few hours.
Winds have shifted into the northwest at 8 to 15 kts across the
entire TAF area and expect a northwest to north wind to continue
today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times later
this morning thru the mid afternoon hours. Winds will quickly
diminish towards 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
900 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS OF 310-340 DEG AND 10-15 KT SUSTAINTED SPEEDS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET POST FROPA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INITIALLY
BE ORIENTED IN THE 330-340 DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TOWARDS 320 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW
10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
* HIGH IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected to become VFR in the
12z-14z time frame at CMI and DEC as drier air advects southeast
into the area. After that, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary has pushed
into parts of central and east central IL as of 11z and will
continue to track east and southeast over the next few hours.
Winds have shifted into the northwest at 8 to 15 kts across the
entire TAF area and expect a northwest to north wind to continue
today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times later
this morning thru the mid afternoon hours. Winds will quickly
diminish towards 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ038-
042>046-049>057-061.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW PROBABILITY FOR A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR MDW ONLY.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
MID TEEN GUSTS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE LIFR CEILINGS/VIS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CEILINGS/VIS WILL DRIFT
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH GYY. THEY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MDW...BUT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. IF IT WERE TO REACH
MDW...UPSTREAM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND QUICKLY SCOUR ANY OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS. WITH FROPA THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO THEN BE OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING...AND WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN INTO THE
320-330 RANGE. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW 10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR WILL NOT REACH ORD...LOW MEDIUM FOR
MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MAY MIX WITH SNOW BRIEFLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
Areas of dense fog have developed from KIJX-KBMI southeastward to
KTAZ-KDNV in areas where rain has recently ended. 1/4 mile
visibilities are common in this region producing VLIFR conditions.
To the southeast, better visibilities in the IFR-MVFR range are
prevalent, although ceilings still generally LIFR. A cold front
will sweep across central IL from 06-12Z bringing in enough dry
northwest flow to gradually clear fog and low clouds, as well as
switch to NW winds 8-10 kts. VFR conditions and NW winds 10-12 kts
expected after 12Z. Winds decreasing after 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ038-
042>046-049>057-061.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015
...Update to aviation and fire weather forecast discussions...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing
some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to
20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70
which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in
combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative
humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled
best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag
Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line
until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was
the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but
lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up
slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This
should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight.
As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on
Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen
and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions
across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the
very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are
expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints
but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon
humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west
of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch
is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location.
Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the
area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on
Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it
a warning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central
and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east
central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind
the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to
northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south.
Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the
middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of
the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday
night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly
southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM
the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be
too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts
of moisture to the region. The best chance will be likely be on
Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of
energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft.
However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general
showers. Then we do start to become a little more active into the
late Sunday time frame. During this time, the upper level pattern
begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low
pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise.
However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of
any associated low or good forcing. Temperatures do still look to
be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by
Saturday. Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering
the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR conditions and southwesterly winds are likely through the
period. Wind gusts will diminish overnight and increase after 15Z.
Winds at 1000 feet AGL will be in the 40-45 kt range between 04Z
and 12Z, but persistent 8-14 kt surface winds give reason to leave
LLWS out of the TAF at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 20 to 30 mph are
expected to continue through 8 PM along with very low RH of
12%-20%, so will maintain Red Flag Warning until 8 pm. Temps fall
and RH increases gradually this evening, with wind gusts expected
to diminish by 8 PM to let it expire at that time.
Monday is looking similar to today across areas north and west of
the I-35 corridor with RH levels falling into the 11-20 percent
range in this area as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. RH may
hold slightly higher south of I-35. Winds are more likely to gust
to 25-30 mph across the entire area on Monday, especially in the
early to mid afternoon. Confidence is increasing that the Fire
Weather watch may need to be updgraded to a Red Flag warning...but
will let the shifts later tonight reevaluate the need following
the expiration of the current Red Flag warning in effect this
evening. Also of note will be a strong cold front moving through
the area, entering far northern KS around 9 PM, I-70 by midnight,
and I-35 by 2 AM. This front will bring wind gusts greater than 40
mph from the north and northeast overnight, and while this will
occur during higher RH, it may cause flare ups especially within 1
hour of the front passage.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-034>039.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...63/Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO
500MB LEVEL. GIVEN THIS NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING FROM 6C IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND 12C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP WITH WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASING
DIURNALLY. 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND IN THE 12-14C RANGE. MIXED DOWN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID 70S. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE TAKEN A LOWER DEWPOINT
SOLUTION AS FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS
TO MIX OUT AND DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION,
SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY FOR NOW. ON MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK REACHABLE WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING AND LOW
DEWPOINTS DIURNALLY MIXING OUT. THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS NOT UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING THE REGION RAIN. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK REASONABLE NOW GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 33 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 66 33 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 32 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 34 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 34 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>076-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
110 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO
500MB LEVEL. GIVEN THIS NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING FROM 6C IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND 12C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN DOMINATES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE CONUS WHILE A CUT OFF LOW SPINS
OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, SUBSEQUENTLY LEAVING STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AND HIGHLY FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT DEEP
THERMAL MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ONLY POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUE WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL EXIST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150+ KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, LITTLE ELSE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 0 C, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN
THE 40S ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.
WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
MEXICO, EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
NEITHER SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 66 33 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 32 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 34 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 34 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 00Z SATURDAY A 700MB AND 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A 250MB JET WAS
LOCATED WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRETCHED FROM EAST
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB
TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AT 00Z SATURDAY WAS LOCATED NEAR A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB HIGH
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION REMAINED IN BETWEEN TWO JET STREAMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE OVER US.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH, BUT IT WILL
MORE OR LESS ACT LIKE AN ORDINARY WIND SHIFT AS THERE IS NO COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO SPEAK OF REALLY. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT THE
AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY SETTLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUMP INTO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE BY MID-MORNING UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING
OF THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN DOMINATES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE CONUS WHILE A CUT OFF LOW SPINS
OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, SUBSEQUENTLY LEAVING STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AND HIGHLY FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT DEEP
THERMAL MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ONLY POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUE WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL EXIST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150+ KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, LITTLE ELSE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 0 C, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN
THE 40S ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.
WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
MEXICO, EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
NEITHER SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 33 76 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 35 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 75 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 34 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM GIVEN THAT MUCH OF
THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A TENTH OF
A INCH OR LESS A HOUR. FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PLAGUED THE TAF SITES ON AND OFF MUCH OF THE
DAY. MANY OF THE SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IFR TO EVEN LIFR AT TIMES
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A FEW SITES UNTIL FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAF SITES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS FRONT USHERS IN DRYER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WE MOVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES AS EITHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PLAGUED THE TAF SITES ON AND OFF MUCH OF THE
DAY. MANY OF THE SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IFR TO EVEN LIFR AT TIMES
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A FEW SITES UNTIL FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAF SITES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS FRONT USHERS IN DRYER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WE MOVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES AS EITHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH THE STEADIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM PASSING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS...MVFR CIG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VIS DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO EACH TAF SITE TO TIME THE POORER AVN CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVENING...THE STAGE WILL PROBABLY BE SET FOR SOME FOG...
POTENTIALLY DENSE AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IDEA AS A
PREVAILING BLOCK OF IFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS AFTER 2 AM...FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR
LESS...FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST
POST FROPA...CONTINUING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT OR CALM AS THE FOG SETS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH THE STEADIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM PASSING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS...MVFR CIG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VIS DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO EACH TAF SITE TO TIME THE POORER AVN CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVENING...THE STAGE WILL PROBABLY BE SET FOR SOME FOG...
POTENTIALLY DENSE AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IDEA AS A
PREVAILING BLOCK OF IFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS AFTER 2 AM...FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR
LESS...FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST
POST FROPA...CONTINUING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT OR CALM AS THE FOG SETS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 4 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EVEN IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THE AVN CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
RATHER BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS NIGHT. HOWEVER...KSYM WILL
LIKELY SEE THE WORST OF IT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE IFR RANGE ALONG WITH THE VIS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS WHILE LETTING
MVFR PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE THE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF TEMPO FOR MOST SITES. THE WX SYSTEM/S FRONT WILL START TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAWN BEFORE IT ALL COMES
TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH NOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AFTER FROPA...CONTINUING
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MAIN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH
TOWARDS DAWN AS SEEN IN THE HRRR AND NAM12. ALSO UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS AND T/TD PER THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
CWA WHERE THE EARLIER MODERATE SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH WITH ANOTHER
BATCH CROSSING ATTM. GENERALLY BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH ANOTHER HALF
INCH OR SO ON THE WAY. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7:15 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A QUICK AND FAIRLY SIMPLE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SO
FAR THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. AFTER WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT...THERE WAS A COUPLE OF HOUR
PERIOD WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARED THAT PERHAPS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE LULL. THEN...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AS THE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD DUE SOUTH...THERE APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN A CORRESPONDING UP TICK IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER POPS INHERITED FROM THE
DAY SHIFT WERE LEFT INTACT. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 6 OR
7Z WERE ALSO UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS. BASED
ON THE CHANGES MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPS WERE RECALCULATED AS WELL. THIS YIELDED MORE REALISTIC
TEMPERATURE WORDING IN THE ZONES...CALLING FOR ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURE RANGES AS OPPOSED TO SAYING THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE OVERALL. THE NEW ZONES WERE RECENTLY SENT OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EVEN IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THE AVN CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
RATHER BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS NIGHT. HOWEVER...KSYM WILL
LIKELY SEE THE WORST OF IT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE IFR RANGE ALONG WITH THE VIS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS WHILE LETTING
MVFR PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE THE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF TEMPO FOR MOST SITES. THE WX SYSTEM/S FRONT WILL START TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAWN BEFORE IT ALL COMES
TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH NOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AFTER FROPA...CONTINUING
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID MARCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH.
A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD
INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO
-17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE
ICE COVER EXIST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A
RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH CLOSER ARPCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR
AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC LLVL FLOW...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND FOR MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS ON SUN...THE LLVLS WL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTS TO THE SE...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPR LKS ON
SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABV AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC
LYR...IWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS ON SUN MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NAM SHOWS A FLAT 500 MB RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA ON SUN WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON MON WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
AND SOME PCPN THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE COLD AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO COME IN IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND KEPT
IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
DRIER AIR COULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -14C TO
-17C. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE FOR 12Z WED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FURTHER EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THEN. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A SFC FRONT THAT IS
DISSIPATING WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK IN FOR FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY
ENDING BELOW NORMAL ON FRI. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH CLOSER ARPCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR
AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC LLVL FLOW...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND FOR MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS ON SUN...THE LLVLS WL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTS TO THE SE...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPR LKS ON
SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABV AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC
LYR...IWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS ON SUN MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C
SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT
REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS
IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH
KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES
THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE
THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST
TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT
EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY
MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER.
FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY.
LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH
700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND
WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK
SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL
BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP
TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET
STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12
SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW
COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL
AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT MID DAY
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND BRING BREEZY
WINDS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF KOGA TO KANW. TO THE EAST...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RANDOM
GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS
INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO
WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER
/700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE
AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND
208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM
NEEDED THE WARNING.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ206-209-
210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT MID DAY
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND BRING BREEZY
WINDS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF KOGA TO KANW. TO THE EAST...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RANDOM
GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
711 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS IS DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WESTWARD SAT
AFTN/EVE...BUT FEWER IN NUMBER THAN TODAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC
OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN
REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE
THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY.
THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C.
DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW
IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP
TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR
NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME
LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL
IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY
LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE
STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT
THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD
FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT
BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FA TONIGHT. ALSO SEEMS LIKE IT MAY COME OUT AS A COUPLE
DISTINCT PIECES...THE FIRST NOW STRETCHING FROM KMOT TO KDVL TO
CARRINGTON. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA AND SPRINKLES. A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZATION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO MORNING ACROSS THE NW FA WITH
A THIN BAND THEN MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. 00Z NAM12 KEEPS THE
BAND RIGHT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WHILE THE RAP WOULD HAVE
THE BAND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WENT MORE WITH
SPRINKLES UNTIL CLOSER TO MORNING. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
SO NOT MUCH OF A COLD PUSH CURRENTLY. THERE ARE SOME UPPER 30S IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...BUT THAT AREA WAS CLEAR EARLIER. IF SOME
COLDER AIR DOES FILTER SOUTH THERE COULD STILL BE A LIGHT MIX IN
SOME NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
QUITE THE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE GO FROM
SMASHING RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EARLIEST FIRST 70
MAX TEMPS TO THE 40S TOMORROW...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CREATING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RAIN BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH A RAIN TURNING OVER
TO SNOW AS 925MB TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE CAA CONTINUES WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE NORTH UP TO NEARLY 850MB.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL COLUMN
TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. EFFICIENT MIXING TUESDAY
WITH THE MIXED LAYER REACHING UP TO 850MB...WITH 15 TO 25 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SE
LATE TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT WAVE TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
FA ENTERS FROM THE WEST. THE 12Z EC AND GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PLACEMENT AND AREAL COVERAGE OF QPF WHEREAS THE
12Z GFS/NAM KEEP THE FA DRY. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY...THERE
IS MUCH MORE DISAGREEMENT. THERE WILL BE A HUDSON BAY LOW THAT
ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THIS FEATURE...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPS BUT DRIER WEATHER
(RIDGING OVERHEAD). WILL STICK WITH THE BLEND UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE OBTAINED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
WENT WITH MORE VCSH DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME ACTUAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING CLOSER TO 10-12Z MON OR SO. SO
FAR THE LOWEST CEILINGS OUT WEST ARE RUNNING AROUND 8000FT...SO
KEPT ALL CEILINGS VFR THROUGHOUT. PCPN TYPE COULD BE A LITTLE
TRICKY BUT KEPT IT ALL LIQUID UNTIL SOME COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MID
MON MORNING...WHEN MENTIONED SOME LIGHT RASN. LOOKS LIKE SOME
CLEARING WORKING IN AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
THERE HAVE LOWERED QUICKLY AND SEEING SOME LIGHT FOG IN RUGBY. WILL
KEEP THIS MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MAIN UPDATE
WAS FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT NOT AFFECTING
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GREATLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
INCREASED SKY COVER OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS SUGGEST MVFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT/KJMS
IN THE BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY AREAS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD/BUILD
INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP
OVER TAF SITES AFT 18Z...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL ND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1032 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
A MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...ENOUGH OF WHICH HAS WARRANTED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST WHERE 10
PM READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WE
STILL FEEL THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 756 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG MONDAY
MORNING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS AT 00Z...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AT 4000 - 4500 FEET AGL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT OR
AROUND 4000 FEET WILL TEND TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS COULD EITHER
RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF DEW...OR IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE NOT HITTING THE FOG POTENTIAL
HARD TONIGHT...SO ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE MORE DEW THAN FOG BY
SUNRISE. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS CERTAINLY
THERE...AND LIKELY ENHANCED IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT A BIT. WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. MAY HAVE TO HIT
THIS HARDER IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED
SHOULD BE MET WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG THAT MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD HEIGHTS TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS TOMORROW.
IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PORTION OF THE FORECAST...RAIN/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ACCEPTANCE RATES IF THEY MOVE IN BEFORE
SUNSET ON TUESDAY.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND EAST TEXAS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
ATHENS AND IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS REPLACE
THE AMBIGUOUS PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...BY
MIDNIGHT EXPECT MANY AREAS TO BE CLEAR WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING
FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE TOO DEEP FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GONE TOMORROW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE REGION...WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPREADS INTO THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTEAD...THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER POINT TOWARD A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT STILL CATCHING THE WATERSHEDS OF SOME
NORTH TEXAS LAKES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO SPREADING
EASTWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BEGIN TO
WANE...BUT STILL EXPECT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO BE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE WILDLY VARYING FROM
LOCATION TO LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE RAIN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME COOLER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THEY WILL RETURN
BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BECOME FRONTOGENETIC THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE GOOD DYNAMIC SETUP
SPELLS ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
THE END OF THE FORECAST IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WHICH PAINTS A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...WHILE THE
GFS HAS NO SUCH TROUGH AND A SUNNY AND NICE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW AND AWAIT A BETTER CONSENSUS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 75 59 77 58 / 5 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 50 75 59 77 59 / 0 5 10 30 70
PARIS, TX 51 73 57 77 56 / 5 5 5 10 70
DENTON, TX 50 76 57 77 56 / 0 5 5 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 49 73 58 77 57 / 5 5 5 10 70
DALLAS, TX 52 75 60 77 59 / 5 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 52 75 59 77 59 / 5 5 5 10 60
CORSICANA, TX 54 74 58 77 60 / 5 5 5 10 60
TEMPLE, TX 50 74 58 77 60 / 0 5 10 30 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 49 77 58 76 55 / 0 5 5 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
756 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG MONDAY
MORNING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS AT 00Z...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AT 4000 - 4500 FEET AGL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT OR
AROUND 4000 FEET WILL TEND TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS COULD EITHER
RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF DEW...OR IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE NOT HITTING THE FOG POTENTIAL
HARD TONIGHT...SO ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE MORE DEW THAN FOG BY
SUNRISE. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS CERTAINLY
THERE...AND LIKELY ENHANCED IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT A BIT. WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. MAY HAVE TO HIT
THIS HARDER IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED
SHOULD BE MET WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG THAT MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD HEIGHTS TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS TOMORROW.
IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PORTION OF THE FORECAST...RAIN/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ACCEPTANCE RATES IF THEY MOVE IN BEFORE
SUNSET ON TUESDAY.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND EAST TEXAS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
ATHENS AND IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS REPLACE
THE AMBIGUOUS PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...BY
MIDNIGHT EXPECT MANY AREAS TO BE CLEAR WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING
FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE TOO DEEP FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GONE TOMORROW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE REGION...WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPREADS INTO THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTEAD...THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER POINT TOWARD A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT STILL CATCHING THE WATERSHEDS OF SOME
NORTH TEXAS LAKES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO SPREADING
EASTWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BEGIN TO
WANE...BUT STILL EXPECT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO BE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE WILDLY VARYING FROM
LOCATION TO LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE RAIN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME COOLER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THEY WILL RETURN
BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BECOME FRONTOGENETIC THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE GOOD DYNAMIC SETUP
SPELLS ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
THE END OF THE FORECAST IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WHICH PAINTS A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...WHILE THE
GFS HAS NO SUCH TROUGH AND A SUNNY AND NICE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW AND AWAIT A BETTER CONSENSUS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 50 75 59 77 58 / 5 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 50 75 59 77 59 / 0 5 10 30 70
PARIS, TX 52 73 57 77 56 / 5 5 5 10 70
DENTON, TX 49 76 57 77 56 / 0 5 5 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 49 73 58 77 57 / 5 5 5 10 70
DALLAS, TX 51 75 60 77 59 / 5 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 52 75 59 77 59 / 5 5 5 10 60
CORSICANA, TX 54 74 58 77 60 / 5 5 5 10 60
TEMPLE, TX 50 74 58 77 60 / 0 5 10 30 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 77 58 76 55 / 0 5 5 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOST AREAS. PATCHY CIGS BKN-OVC060-090
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS AT
MVFR LEVEL CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CIGS BKN010-030. THE CIGS THEN LIFT
TO LOW END VFR BKN030-040 IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL
IMPACT KAUS IN THE MORNING AND KSAT/KSSF BY MIDDAY. N TO NE WINDS
10 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 24 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES...THEN INCREASE TO 7 TO
11 KTS ON SUNDAY DUE SLIGHTLY REINFORCING SURFACE PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS
UPWARDS ON HOURLY AND MAX HIGHS AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER
WORDING FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR BURNET AND LLANO. UPDATES ARE
OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
DISCUSSION...A WONDERFUL SATURDAY IS ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO UPPER
70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY ERODES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLY TO HAVE A LIGHT SPRITZ HERE AND THERE GIVEN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST. H925 TEMPS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 1-2C COOLER H925
ADVECTION PER THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
YET...THE STRONGER INSOLATION FROM THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
HELP SOME SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE AND PUSH US
TOWARDS YESTERDAYS WARMER READINGS. ALL IN ALL...A NICE DAY IS IN
STORE. /ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Clouds are
clearing up across the area, resulting in mostly clear conditions.
Only a FEW/SCT upper level clouds are expected at most sites
through Sunday morning. We may see some low end VFR CIGS develop
at KABI between 12Z/7AM and 18Z/1PM Sunday. Otherwise, we will see
a few gusts to near 20 knots this afternoon, with winds
diminishing around 00Z. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light rain showers will affect mainly the southern terminals early
this morning, with brief MVFR visibilities possible. Otherwise,
expect a mid cloud deck to scatter out later this afternoon. A
weak cold front will move across the area today, with gusts to 20
KT possible, mainly across the northern terminals. Expect light
winds overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 41 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 42 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 41 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
948 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS
UPWARDS ON HOURLY AND MAX HIGHS AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER
WORDING FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR BURNET AND LLANO. UPDATES ARE
OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WONDERFUL SATURDAY IS ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO UPPER
70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY ERODES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLY TO HAVE A LIGHT SPRITZ HERE AND THERE GIVEN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST. H925 TEMPS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 1-2C COOLER H925
ADVECTION PER THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
YET...THE STRONGER INSOLATION FROM THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
HELP SOME SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE AND PUSH US
TOWARDS YESTERDAYS WARMER READINGS. ALL IN ALL...A NICE DAY IS IN
STORE. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light rain showers will affect mainly the southern terminals early
this morning, with brief MVFR visibilities possible. Otherwise,
expect a mid cloud deck to scatter out later this afternoon. A
weak cold front will move across the area today, with gusts to 20
KT possible, mainly across the northern terminals. Expect light
winds overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 41 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 42 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 41 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 40 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 41 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 42 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 51 67 52 71 / 0 - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 52 69 53 70 / 0 - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 53 74 54 70 / 0 - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 72 53 69 / 0 - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 68 53 70 / 0 - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 52 69 54 72 / 0 - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 52 70 54 69 / 0 - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 52 70 55 69 / 0 - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
655 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET
BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK
WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT
TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF
SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS
ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE
HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
ALONG THE FRONT.
EXPECT A NORTHWEST WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND
OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER
GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY
AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH
A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70
ELSEWHERE.
COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A
NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD
DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS.
OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST
TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR
WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO
COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK
CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS
FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER
MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST
SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS
SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A
WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT
ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY
COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH
COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7.
TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S
EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A SOLID WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REACHING
20KTS IN PLACES. CEILINGS REMAIN IFR IN SEVERAL PLACES...BUT HAVE
NOTICED IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WITH THE WIND
SHIFT.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA JUST AFTER
15/00Z...AND RACE QUICKLY EASTWARD...BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FOR KBCB/KROA/KLYH/KDAN IN THE
DRIER DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FOR LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING 60KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 850MB ALONG THE RIDGES DURING THE 15/12Z TO 15/15Z
TIMEFRAME. MIXING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN 20KTS
TO 27KTS FOR MOST TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT STRONGER GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 35KTS
FOR KROA WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ009-012>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST BAND HAS MAINLY PASSED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON...
PRODUCING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL. THE SECOND BAND OF
RAIN IS PASSING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND
WILL CROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE
A LULL IN RAINFALL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE PER LATEST
HRRR/RAP MODEL SOLUTIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND RAIN BAND IS BELIEVED TO BE WHEN WE
WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE UPWARD WHERE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE CLOUDS BREAK. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER WHERE
CLOUDS BREAK COMPARED TO A LOCATION 5 MILES AWAY WHERE CLOUDS HOLD
FAST. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S AREAWIDE...BUT EXPECTING LOCALIZED TEMPERATURE SPIKES.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAIN SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. OUTLOOK FROM
SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY BUT KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LYH/DAN LINE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DRYING TREND...WITH SOME LINGERING NW FLOW
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF WV/SW VA...NW NC...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS ENSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THINK WINDS WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
AS 8H JET ONLY SHOWING 35-40 KTS...THOUGH ENHANCING TOWARD 50 KTS
PER NAM BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO LIMITED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NRN GREENBRIER LATE.
LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY/MTNS...TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PLACE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND FALLING DEW POINTS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WEST IN
THE 50S AND 60S OUT EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S. MODELS ARE BRING
A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
IT...BUT TO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. LOW DEW POINTS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S WEST AND 70S EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGED AREAS SETTLING TOWARD MVFR/IFR TO LIFR...BUT SE FLOW IN THE
WEST APPEARS TO BE KEEPING BLF FROM SINKING LOW. WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORED
THE 10Z RAP MODEL AND MAINLY LOOKING AT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STILL
A LOW LVL JET ABOVE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MIDDAY.
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND COLD
FRONT...AND EXPECT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT BCB/ROA FIRST BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT BLF A FEW HOURS PAST
DUSK. NOT GOING TO ADD THUNDER IN THE DANVILLE TAF AS MODELS KEEP
THE BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SE.
LOOKING AT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO WNW THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LIFT THE CIGS ABOVE MVFR IN THE EAST BETWEEN DUSK
AND 03Z...WITH MVFR HANGING INTO THE NIGHT AT BLF/LWB.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR BOONE AND
WEST JEFFERSON. KEPT IT LIMITED TO 20-23KTS AT THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH STAYING IN PLACE AS WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. FORECAST AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNING THRU
THIS EVENING GIVE ABOUT 3/4" IN THE MTNS OF SE WV...WITH MOST ONLY
SEEING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE STARTING TO
RESPOND TO RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT WITH MODEST RISES...
ALTHOUGH THEY STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE START TO SEE
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS PASSING ACROSS
THE MEADOW AND GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF RAIN BETWEEN DEPARTING LIFT...AND
NEXT AREA WITH WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST
RAP MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. STILL MOST AREAS WILL SEE
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NO RAIN
WHERE ITS JUST CLOUDY...WITH DENSE FOG SETTLING ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN 3/4THS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WARM FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF US OVER THE SRN GULF COAST
STATES AS WINDS ARE NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO CENTRAL GA. WILL
BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST
OF US INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER GA THAT MOVES OUR WAY
BY LATE MORNING...BUT TRACK FAVORS IT HEADING TOWARD THE NC
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WV PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS AROUND 12Z...THEN MORE
COVERAGE MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SOME BREAKS OUT EAST. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAIN SFC LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND. OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY BUT KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LYH/DAN LINE.
THE NAM/ECM WERE HOLD A TIGHTER WEDGE COMPONENT IN PER SFC LI FIELDS
AND THE MOS AND 2M TEMPS REFLECT COOLER HIGHS THAN THE MAV. CASE IN
POINT THE MET MOS FOR DANVILLE IS FORECASTING 55 TODAY WHILE THE MAV
MOS SHOWS 66. ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER TO THE MET.
THEREFORE LOWED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF ANY
SUN CAN BREAK OUT LATE THIS TEMP COULD SPIKE TOWARD MID TO UPPER
60S. IF NOT...WE MAY SEE HIGHS ONLY CREEP TOWARD 60.
FURTHER WEST THINK RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN AS WELL THOUGH SE FLOW
TURNING SW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SPIKE IN TEMPS WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DRYING TREND...WITH SOME LINGERING NW FLOW
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF WV/SW VA...NW NC...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS ENSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THINK WINDS WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
AS 8H JET ONLY SHOWING 35-40 KTS...THOUGH ENHANCING TOWARD 50 KTS
PER NAM BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO LIMITED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NRN GREENBRIER LATE.
LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY/MTNS...TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PLACE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND FALLING DEW POINTS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WEST IN
THE 50S AND 60S OUT EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S. MODELS ARE BRING
A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
IT...BUT TO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. LOW DEW POINTS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S WEST AND 70S EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGED AREAS SETTLING TOWARD MVFR/IFR TO LIFR...BUT SE FLOW IN THE
WEST APPEARS TO BE KEEPING BLF FROM SINKING LOW. WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORED
THE 10Z RAP MODEL AND MAINLY LOOKING AT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STILL
A LOW LVL JET ABOVE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MIDDAY.
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND COLD
FRONT...AND EXPECT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT BCB/ROA FIRST BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT BLF A FEW HOURS PAST
DUSK. NOT GOING TO ADD THUNDER IN THE DANVILLE TAF AS MODELS KEEP
THE BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SE.
LOOKING AT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO WNW THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LIFT THE CIGS ABOVE MVFR IN THE EAST BETWEEN DUSK
AND 03Z...WITH MVFR HANGING INTO THE NIGHT AT BLF/LWB.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR BOONE AND
WEST JEFFERSON. KEPT IT LIMITED TO 20-23KTS AT THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH STAYING IN PLACE AS WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. FORECAST AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNING THRU
THIS EVENING GIVE ABOUT 3/4" IN THE MTNS OF SE WV...WITH MOST ONLY
SEEING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. RIVERS/STREAMS CONTINUE TO FALL IN
WV...THOUGH AS OF LATE THE RATE OF DECREASE IS SLOWING. IF ENOUGH
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR THE FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE MEADOW RIVER
AND GREENBRIER BASIN...THOUGH AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
TODAY:
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.
1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING
2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY
FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS
WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN
DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH
RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA
TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS
IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS
USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER
SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY
AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED
WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE
COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING
UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN
MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN
THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND
WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70.
A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AGAIN MONDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHTER
DURING MONDAY...AND WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEAK GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS ARE PROJECTED AREA-WIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD APPROACHING INTERSTATE 70 TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD...AND WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT RSL AND
SLN AROUND 04 UTC/17TH.
JMC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE
CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET
OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER.
HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA
EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH
WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908
CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012
RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012
SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30
NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80
CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing
some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to
20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70
which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in
combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative
humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled
best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag
Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line
until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was
the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but
lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up
slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This
should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight.
As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on
Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen
and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions
across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the
very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are
expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints
but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon
humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west
of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch
is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location.
Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the
area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on
Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it
a warning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central
and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east
central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind
the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to
northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south.
Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the
middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of
the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday
night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly
southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM
the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be
too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts
of moisture to the region. The best chance will be likely be on
Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of
energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft.
However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general
showers. Then we do start to become a little more active into the
late Sunday time frame. During this time, the upper level pattern
begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low
pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise.
However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of
any associated low or good forcing. Temperatures do still look to
be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by
Saturday. Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering
the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although there is
a very small chance for vis restrictions mainly at TOP as low
level moisture tries to move north into the area. Winds between
500 and 1500 feet AGL are measured by radar profilers between 40
and 50 kts, and are expected to persist at these speeds through
12Z. Surface wind gusts will increase to around 25 kts during the
day from the southwest with a strong cold front moving through TAF
sites near the end of the period, with gusts greater than 35 kts
possible from the north.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Monday is looking similar to today across areas north and west of
the I-35 corridor with RH levels falling into the 11-20 percent
range in this area as temperatures rise into the lower 80s. RH may
hold slightly higher south of I-35. Winds are more likely to gust
to 25-30 mph across the entire area on Monday, especially in the
early to mid afternoon. Confidence is increasing that the Fire
Weather watch may need to be upgraded to a Red Flag warning...but
will let the shifts later tonight reevaluate the need following
the expiration of the current Red Flag warning in effect this
evening. Also of note will be a strong cold front moving through
the area, entering far northern KS around 9 PM, I-70 by midnight,
and I-35 by 2 AM. This front will bring wind gusts greater than 40
mph from the north and northeast overnight, and while this will
occur during higher RH, it may cause flare ups especially within 1
hour of the front passage.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50
DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE...
PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL.
GIVEN THE SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING
IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING
TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST
KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF
EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION.
THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE
HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE
SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION
EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO
GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER
QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
MVFR BR AT SME TOWARDS DAWN AS THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THERE ARE
THE LOWEST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY...BY FAR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN
CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE
CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE
LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6
HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT
THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING
NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING.
AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS
WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85
AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM
NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE
RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND
IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR
VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR
IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR
BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH
RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING
FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF
RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE
DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
/H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT.
FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN
THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF
RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE
MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS
0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 20000 TO
25000 FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER
TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED.
TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW
WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK
DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED
MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS...
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS
SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR
800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE
80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN
OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO
25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN
AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK...
EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE
COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL
AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW
CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE
PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN
ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO
E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH
THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE
UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A
MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN
OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX
TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK.
A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION...
EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80
HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80
GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60
DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FROM THE 00Z
TAFS...SO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS BEEN LEFT BELOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RELATIVELY THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOW DOWN COOLING TRENDS OVERNIGHT...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LEFT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN
THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DIP
NEAR DEW POINTS BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING IN SOME MILD VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
CAVANAUGH
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
/ISSUED 756 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG MONDAY
MORNING IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6 KTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL AREA
AIRPORTS AT 00Z...WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS AT 4000 - 4500 FEET AGL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT OR
AROUND 4000 FEET WILL TEND TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS BEFORE SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS COULD EITHER
RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF DEW...OR IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE NOT HITTING THE FOG POTENTIAL
HARD TONIGHT...SO ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY SEE MORE DEW THAN FOG BY
SUNRISE. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS CERTAINLY
THERE...AND LIKELY ENHANCED IF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT A BIT. WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOMORROW
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. MAY HAVE TO HIT
THIS HARDER IF SKIES CLEAR OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED
SHOULD BE MET WITH A QUICK DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG THAT MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CLOUD HEIGHTS TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS TOMORROW.
IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PORTION OF THE FORECAST...RAIN/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT ACCEPTANCE RATES IF THEY MOVE IN BEFORE
SUNSET ON TUESDAY.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
A MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...ENOUGH OF WHICH HAS WARRANTED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST WHERE 10
PM READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WE
STILL FEEL THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND EAST TEXAS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
ATHENS AND IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
SHEAR APART OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS IN THE HIGH PLAINS REPLACE
THE AMBIGUOUS PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...AND
THEREFORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. HOWEVER...BY
MIDNIGHT EXPECT MANY AREAS TO BE CLEAR WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG. THERE ARE SOME MITIGATING
FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE TOO DEEP FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GONE TOMORROW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE REGION...WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS TIME AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEAST TOWARD TEXAS.
AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPREADS INTO THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTEAD...THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER POINT TOWARD A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER NORTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT STILL CATCHING THE WATERSHEDS OF SOME
NORTH TEXAS LAKES. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO SPREADING
EASTWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS...SO DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BEGIN TO
WANE...BUT STILL EXPECT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO BE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE WILDLY VARYING FROM
LOCATION TO LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE RAIN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME COOLER
AIR WILL ADVECT IN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THEY WILL RETURN
BY THURSDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN RIGHT ON ITS
HEELS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BECOME FRONTOGENETIC THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE GOOD DYNAMIC SETUP
SPELLS ANOTHER EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
THE END OF THE FORECAST IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...WHICH PAINTS A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP...WHILE THE
GFS HAS NO SUCH TROUGH AND A SUNNY AND NICE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR NOW AND AWAIT A BETTER CONSENSUS.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 75 59 77 58 / 5 5 5 20 70
WACO, TX 50 75 59 77 59 / 0 5 10 30 70
PARIS, TX 51 73 57 77 56 / 5 5 5 10 70
DENTON, TX 50 76 57 77 56 / 0 5 5 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 49 73 58 77 57 / 5 5 5 10 70
DALLAS, TX 52 75 60 77 59 / 5 5 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 52 75 59 77 59 / 5 5 5 10 60
CORSICANA, TX 54 74 58 77 60 / 5 5 5 10 60
TEMPLE, TX 50 74 58 77 60 / 0 5 10 30 70
MINERAL WELLS, TX 49 77 58 76 55 / 0 5 5 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
838 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OTHERWISE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS FOR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS STALLED. LATEST
PRECIPITATION REPORT ROUNDUP SHOWS AS OF THIS TIME NO SPOTS IN OUR
CWA HAVE PICKED UP ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DOWN TO SAN FRANCISCO. WILL ISSUE A
SMALL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS UP TO AT LEAST 15 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER WEEK FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION
WITH JUST LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WORTH NOTING
INTO WEDNESDAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR
OFFICIAL SITE IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO SET A RECORD WARM MINIMUM
ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW OF ONLY 58 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD
OF 56 SET IN 1993. THE WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUR NIGHTS MILD IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WERE
UNDER. ANYWAY THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL KICK THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WRINKLE IN
THE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY.
BUT FOR THE BULK OF THE DISTRICT LOOK FOR CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
BY WEDS MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
NOSE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A MODEST WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS.
NEXT FRONT OF INTEREST APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH AND INTENSITY
OF ANY RAINFALL (THAT`S NOT SURPRISING) WITH THE GEM MODEL THE MOST
BULLISH. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EAST BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME HINT
OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY NEXT MONDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
TODAY...OTHERWISE ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAINED CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE OCEAN TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE COAST BY
LATE MONDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP LOCALLY INLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
CLOUDS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT WEST WINDS 12-15 KNOTS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. CONFIDENCE
MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 04:25 AM PDT MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
TODAY:
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.
1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING
2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY
FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS
WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN
DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH
RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA
TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS
IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS
USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER
SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY
AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED
WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE
COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING
UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN
MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN
THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND
WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70.
A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
INCREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING WITH BETTER MIXING
THAN YESTERDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN SITES THIS
EVENING...AND OVER REMAINDER OF THE SITES DURING THE NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION OR LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONT. -HOWERTON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE
CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET
OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER.
HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA
EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH
WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908
CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012
RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012
SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30
NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80
CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1124 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPDATED TO BLEND OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...WITHOUT ANY
OVERALL CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE. ALSO UPDATED THE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FOR TUESDAY TO FINE TUNE THE NONDIURNAL TRENDS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS PRIMARILY TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WX GRIDS AND
ADJUST THE SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS
WELL WITH THE UPDATED GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50
DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE...
PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL.
GIVEN THE SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING
IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING
TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST
KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF
EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION.
THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE
HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE
SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION
EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO
GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER
QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MOSTLY
DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPDATED THE GRIDS PRIMARILY TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE WX GRIDS AND
ADJUST THE SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATED ZFP WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS
WELL WITH THE UPDATED GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
WHILE RIDGES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SEEING READINGS CLOSER TO 50
DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE...
PROVIDING SOMEWHAT OF A FLOOR TO THE VALLEY TEMPERATURE FALL.
GIVEN THE SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...BUT NOTHING
IS SHOWING UP CURRENTLY IN THE OBS OR AREA WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL SHOW A TROUGH PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING
TEMPORARILY BUILDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY PLACING EAST
KENTUCKY IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN RIDGE GETS
SHUNTED SOUTH STARTING TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY THANKS TO
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...A RETREATING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 77 AT LOZ/78 AT JKL AND THESE VALUES MAY BE TESTED IF
EVERYTHING FALLS INTO PLACE. FOR NOW THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...ANOTHER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT WILL RESULT UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED BUT STILL CAPABLE OF A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE TRACKED IT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR POPS AT ANY LOCATION.
THE FRONT AND EXTRA CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE
BOARD ON TUESDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DID TAKE
HIGHS UP A BIT TODAY IN THE SOUTH AND ALSO MAKE SOME MORE
SUBSTANTIVE ADJUSTMENT FOR THE ANTICIPATED TERRAIN/INVERSION
EFFECTS ON THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...DID GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS WITH THAT BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE
THEY WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO...IN LINE WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
THE PERIOD WILL START AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED...OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH DRIER. THESE
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A SHOT
OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF WASHES OUT
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EVER REACHES THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUING TO
GO WITH A BLENDED FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS SPLAYED OUT OVER TOP OF KENTUCKY KEEPING THE WEATHER
QUIET. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MOSTLY
DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
940 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONGEST ECHOES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ZONES MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT
MOST ECHOES ARE SNOW...BUT THERE IS ALSO FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL
KEEP EASTERN PARTS OF THE WSW GOING UNTIL NOON AND CLEAR VALLEY AND
PHILLIPS COUNTIES. ECHOES ARE DIMINISHING IN THE NORTHWEST AS A
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA
BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A SURFACE HIGH IN
ALBERTA...SURFACE WIND FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE BRISK IN
THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...SO REDUCED TO HRRR MODEL. SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...SHORT RANGES BEGINS WITH COLDEST AIR RUNNING
FROM THE ARCTIC THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND NORTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MEANWHILE...A BROAD WARM RIDGE RUNS
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND COMES TO A WARM HEAD OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS VERY TIGHT GRADIENT SPREADS OUT GOING WEST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
NA COAST.
TODAY...COLD FRONT SHARPENING THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE CWA AROUND 6AM TO NOON. THIS WILL
BRING LOWERING TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW BY THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
FEED DIMINISHING...SNOW TOTALS WILL REDUCE FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL SHUNT THE
WARMEST AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN US PLAINS
AND CUT OFF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FEED INTO MONTANA. IN ADDITION
PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD
TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES AND DRY COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
FOG SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX AND DRY OUT MOST OF THE ENVIRONMENT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY THE RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND PUSH THE
FRONT RANGE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED AND OVERRUN
THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DEFUSE
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME MAKING COVERAGE A LOT WIDER WITH
MULTIPLE LIGHTER BANDS. STORM TOTAL SNOW LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES WITH THIS PASSAGE. GAH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREAS WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST.
THURSDAY LOOKS MILD AND DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS KEEP
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE IN MOST AREAS
WITH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BEING WARMER.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND
PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS A DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER... BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY POINTING TOWARDS DRY SLOTTING
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT THIS POINT. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
BECOMING VFR. SNOW GIVING THE VISIBILITY REDUCTION MOVES INTO NORTH
DAKOTA.
CIGS: IMPROVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY FROM NW TO SE.
SURFACE WINDS: NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR DANIELS...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...SHERIDAN...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN
CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE
CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE
LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6
HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT
THEDFORD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING
NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING.
AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS
WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85
AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM
NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE
RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND
IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR
VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR
IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR
BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH
RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING
FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF
RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE
DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
/H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT.
FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN
THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF
RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE
MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS
0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS. RIGHT NOW...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AROUND 19Z AND AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
AT 21Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR
THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000
FT AGL TODAY...FALLING TO 3000 FT AGL THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SCATTERED CIGS AON 25000 FT AGL WILL BECOME BROKEN AND FALL
TO 10000 FT AGL THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1044 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. CONT TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WHERE
SOME AFTN HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG CONFIGURATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG THROUGH 15Z IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. ADDED MENTION AT MOST SITES SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC.
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR KLAW. DONT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
GO BELOW MINIMUMS.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
BY 16Z.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
14-24Z.
ADDED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KPNC 00-09Z
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. THIS MAY OCCUR
NEAR KOKC AND KOUN AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 06-12Z AND BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WIND INCREASING WINDS. MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER
TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED.
TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW
WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK
DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED
MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS...
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS
SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR
800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE
80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN
OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO
25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN
AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK...
EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE
COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL
AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW
CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE
PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN
ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO
E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH
THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE
UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A
MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN
OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX
TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK.
A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION...
EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80
HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80
GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60
DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>018-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
636 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH BR/FG THROUGH 15Z IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. ADDED MENTION AT MOST SITES SOUTHEAST OF KCSM-KPNC.
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR KLAW. DONT THINK CONDITIONS WILL
GO BELOW MINIMUMS.
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
BY 16Z.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
14-24Z.
ADDED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR KPNC 00-09Z
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. THIS MAY OCCUR
NEAR KOKC AND KOUN AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 06-12Z AND BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG WIND INCREASING WINDS. MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER
TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES TUE/WED.
TEMPS WILL SOAR THIS AFTN ACROSS W/NW AND NRN OK THIS AFTN AS SW
WINDS INCREASE OFF THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A STOUT COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTN. TRIMMED BACK
DPTS THROUGH THE AFTN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RAP HAS HAD
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS RECENT RUNS... PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED
MIXING ACROSS THE W/NW. IN RESPONSE... EXPECT RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW OK. AS FOR TEMPS...
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERDOES TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THIS
SCENARIO. BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NW SUGGEST MIXING TO NEAR
800MB... TAPPING INTO THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LLANO ESTACADO... HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE
80S ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS FAR NWRN
OK. IF TEMPS AND RH WAS NOT ENOUGH... SUSTAINED SW WINDS OF 20 TO
25 GUSTING TO 35 WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE AFTN
AIDED BY EFFICIENT MIXING AND A STEEP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN OK...
EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING EASTWARD INTO KAY AND NOBLE
COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR CENTRAL
AND SRN OK AS WELL. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND RH WILL NOT REACH RFW
CRITERIA... IT WILL BE WARM... DRY AND BREEZY... AND FUELS ARE
PRIMED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK. BURNING IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED THIS AFTN.
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
NRN OK THROUGH TUE MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE TUE AFTN
ACROSS NRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE H500 TROUGH OFF WRN MEXICO
E/NE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD N/NE INTO OK THROUGH WED AM... WITH
THE SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE TEXOMA REGION BY DAYBREAK. AS THE
UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE PRIMARY H500 FLOW... IT WILL JAUNT AT A
MODERATE CLIP TO THE EAST... WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTN. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER LATE TUE NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN PRODUCER... ESPECIALLY FOR SWRN
OK. AMOUNTS COULD SPAN FROM NEAR A 0.50-0.75 IN SW OK AND WRN N TX
TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL AND SERN OK.
A LULL IN PRECIP WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM LATE WED INTO EARLY THU
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI... BUT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MESSY FOR THE SRN PLAINS. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL STALL OUT S/SW OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH OUR CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMING FROM A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS INTO THE REGION...
EXITING INTO TX AS A COLD FRONT BY SAT. EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 51 62 44 / 0 0 10 80
HOBART OK 78 51 62 42 / 0 0 20 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 57 71 46 / 0 0 20 80
GAGE OK 84 45 56 34 / 0 0 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 81 48 61 41 / 0 0 10 60
DURANT OK 74 57 77 52 / 0 0 20 80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>018-021.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
310 PM PDT Mon Mar 16 2015
.Synopsis...
Weak weather systems moving through the region will result in some
light precipitation over portions of the of the forecast area and
the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday. Dry and warm weather is
expected for the latter half of the week. Next chance of more
widespread precipitation will be this weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Broad...moist SW flow aloft will continue over Norcal through
tonite before a progressive short wave trof moving inside (or
East) of 140W brushes by mainly to the N on Tue. The TPW plume
about 1-1.33" offshore is focused over the region by the synoptic
scale pattern with a weak short wave causing light precip mainly
from Lake Co...NEwd into Plumas Co and in the vicinity of a
quasi-stationary/slow-moving front. This weak short wave will be
moving through the CWA tonite...pushed Ewd by the upstream system
mentioned above. The TPW plume itself is forecast to erode and
shift S of the region as it moves inland...influenced by the weak
short wave and then the upstream system. Minor change to the
previous forecasts was to mention some RW-- over the Srn Sac Vly
as suggested by the HRRR tonite and GFS.
The band of light rain will continue to gradually shift SEwd and
will likely linger into Tue as the upstream short wave moves
through Norcal. The upstream short wave is forecast to weaken and
move into NV Tue afternoon...so precip should wind down or
diminish in our CWA. The models do not show significant instability
to warrant thunder in the Siernev Tue afternoon...but they do on
Wed afternoon as a weak wave moves through the weak Wly flow in
the wake of Tue`s system. Then...ridging re-amplifies over Norcal
on Thu with a return to warm/dry wx.
Morning RAOBs show 9-15 degrees of cooling from yesterday when we
continued to established record max temps over the weekend. No
records expected today as synoptic cooling and thick cloud cover
keep temps in the 60s and 70s in the Valley. The 24 hr trend over
most of the CWA is trending toward the RAOBs numbers. From here we
should see a warming trend through mid week as max temps rebound
with a return to partly cloudy skies on Tue in the wake of the
short wave trof. Warming continues Wed/Thu as ridging re-amplifies
and increases Nly pressure gradients promoting adiabatic warming
effects. Warm enough for a potential record max temp at KRDD on
Thu (81 in 2010, 85 in 1914 City record for Mar 19th) as we
forecast a high of 82. JHM
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
Medium range models similar in bringing next short wave through
Interior NorCal late Friday into Saturday morning but differ with
strength of storm. All solutions showing the system weakening as
it moves onshore and overall QPF looks light and focused north
of I-80 in the Central Valley. Dry weather behind this system for
later Saturday into Sunday under upper ridging.
GFS/GEM showing a deeper system Monday with precip spreading
farther south over the entire CWA. Latest 12z EC has shifted to a
more progressive solution with QPF focused mainly north of I-80
for the Central Valley. Models have had a tendency of initially
showing deeper wetter systems towards the end of the forecast
period, then trend weaker with more northern track in later runs.
Given this, current forecast leans towards the 12Z EC. Synoptic
cooling over the area Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s for the Central Valley with mostly 40s to low 60s for the
mountains and foothills.
&&
.Aviation...
Wk fnt sags sloly S thru Intr NorCal tngt into Tue mrng then high
pres blds inld. Mnly VFR conds ovr fcst area nxt 24 hrs with isold
-shra poss. Lcl SWly sfc wnd gsts to 25 kt poss ovr hyr trrn thru
04z Tue.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
253 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER FORECAST. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR. HOWEVER...SO FAR ZERO OF THE GAUGES
ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE INDICATED ANY TIPS OF THE BUCKET ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA DO INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN HAS
STARTED OVER THE NORTH BAY. 19Z RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING TO THE NORTH BAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND DOWN TO SF BAY BY LATE IN THE EVENING. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SAN MATEO COUNTY AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH. IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT -- JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR MOST SPOTS.
SYNOPTICALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE INLAND SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA ALONG
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS
THE TROF FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN OUT OF OUR
CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW AS A COMPROMISE.
FOR NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH WITH
A PATTERN OF A WEAK RIDGE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROF. RIGHT NOW NO
INDICATIONS OF A MAJOR RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY TODAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
IN THE FEW/SCT RANGE AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PREFORMED
POORLY AS OF LATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS INCREASE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL. A FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A
BKN/OVC DECK WILL FORM.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF ONSHORE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED SWELL. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 6 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 6 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1047 AM PDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OTHERWISE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
WEATHER. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 AM PDT MONDAY...KMUX RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS FOR NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT HAS STALLED. LATEST
PRECIPITATION REPORT ROUNDUP SHOWS AS OF THIS TIME NO SPOTS IN OUR
CWA HAVE PICKED UP ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS
LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DOWN TO SAN FRANCISCO. WILL ISSUE A
SMALL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS UP TO AT LEAST 15 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER WEEK FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION
WITH JUST LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WORTH NOTING
INTO WEDNESDAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR
OFFICIAL SITE IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO SET A RECORD WARM MINIMUM
ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOW OF ONLY 58 DEGREES BREAKING THE OLD RECORD
OF 56 SET IN 1993. THE WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO KEEP
OUR NIGHTS MILD IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN WERE
UNDER. ANYWAY THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING
OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
ON TUESDAY A SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL KICK THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WRINKLE IN
THE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TOWERING CUMULUS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BENITO COUNTY.
BUT FOR THE BULK OF THE DISTRICT LOOK FOR CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.
BY WEDS MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
NOSE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A MODEST WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH READINGS FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS.
NEXT FRONT OF INTEREST APPROACHES THE NORCAL COAST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH AND INTENSITY
OF ANY RAINFALL (THAT`S NOT SURPRISING) WITH THE GEM MODEL THE MOST
BULLISH. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
LATEST TIMING SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE EAST BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. SOME HINT
OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY NEXT MONDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH BAY TODAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WILL KEEP
IN THE FEW/SCT RANGE AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PREFORMED
POORLY AS OF LATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WINDS INCREASE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE TERMINAL. A FEW/SCT
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A
BKN/OVC DECK WILL FORM.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF ONSHORE
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 AM PDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...ALONG WITH A GENTLE MIXED
SWELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHER WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW/BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: RGASS
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT Mon Mar 16 2015
.Synopsis...
Light precipitation will be possible over the northern third of
the forecast area over the next 24 hours while diurnal showers will
be possible across the northern Sierra Tuesday and Wednesday. Next
chance of more widespread precipitation will be this weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Broad...moist SW flow aloft will continue over Norcal through
tonite before a progressive short wave trof vcnty 140W brushes by
mainly to the N on Tue. The TPW plume about 1-1.33" offshore is
focused over the region by the synoptic scale pattern with a weak
short wave causing light precip mainly from Lake Co...NEwd into
Shasta Co...and in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front. This
weak short wave will be moving through the CWA tonite...pushed Ewd
by the upstream system mentioned above. The TPW plume itself is
forecast to erode and shift S of the region as it moves inland...
influenced by the weak short wave and then the upstream system. The
SWly flow aloft will parallel the front...but the front should
finally move through and weaken in our CWA with the passage of the
upstream system on Tue.
Only change to the forecasts will be to perhaps mention some RW--
over the Srn Sac Vly as suggested by the HRRR tonite...and will
contemplate that for the afternoon forecast. Meanwhile...the band of
light rain will gradually shift Ewd and will likely linger into Tue
as the upstream short wave moves through Norcal. The upstream short
wave is forecast to weaken and move into NV Tue afternoon...so
precip should wind down or diminish in our CWA. The models do not
show significant instability to warrant thunder in the Siernev Tue
afternoon and will contemplate removing that mention in the
afternoon package as well.
Morning raobs show 9-15 degrees of cooling from yesterday when we
continued to established record max temps over the weekend. No
records expected today as synoptic cooling and thick cloud cover
keep temps in the 60s and 70s in the Valley. JHM
.Previous Discussion...
Satellite imagery continues to show plenty of cloudiness streaming
northeastward into the region from the eastern Pacific. Light
showers have been confined to the Coast Range, northern Sacramento
Valley and northern mountains. 24 hours rainfall amounts have
ranged from a few hundredths of an inch in the coastal mountains
to around a third of an inch in the mountains north of Redding.
The Redding area itself has generally seen around a tenth of an
inch of rain.
All the clouds are resulting in another night of mild
temperatures. Readings currently vary from the 40s in the
mountains to the 50s in the Central Valley.
Little change in the pattern is expected for NorCal today as
moisture continues flow up from the southwest ahead of a broad
trough over the eastern Pacific. The deepest moisture (TPW
approaching an inch) along with weak lift will continue to be
aimed into the far northwest corner of the forecast area, and that
is where light precipitation is expected to remain into early
Tuesday. The southern half of the forecast area will see varying
amounts of clouds along with warmer temperatures.
The short-wave presently approaching 40N/140W is forecast to move
toward the PacNW on Tuesday, but it will help to lift the deeper
moisture and precipitation chances north of the region during the
day. However, appears there will be enough lingering moisture and
some instability with weakness aloft for a slight chance of
diurnal deep convection over the northern Sierra both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Stronger ridging is forecast to return Thursday and may
cap-off mountain convection and bring a return of warmer
temperatures.
&&
.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)
The ridge that was in place Thursday shifts to the east on Friday
with a shortwave passing through Northern California late Friday
into Saturday. This will bring chances of precipitation to the
area, but focused mainly north of I-80 in the Valley.
Weak, transitory ridging builds Sunday, before a potentially
wetter system moves in by Sunday night into early next week. This
will bring slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of a
wetter event, at least compared to recent systems. Decent model
agreement exists for this storm, but we have seen this already
lately. When the GFS, EC, and GEM all show a decent trough over
the area this far out, it usually translate to a decent chance of
precip, or least something to monitor more closely. Persistence
can be a good forecast tool, as the persistent ridge has brought
the past few troughs down to size. We do mention a possibility
for some precip, but amounts and coverage may suffer if the ridge
holds. JClapp
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. A weak weather system
will remain over NW CA today, bringing -RA from Clear Lake to
Quincy northward. This band will slowly shift southward this
evening, and may bring -SHRA to Sacramento tonight.
Expect north winds less than 10 kt across the Valley today. Some
breezy SW winds will be possible over the high Sierra.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
Latest satellite water vapor loop shows southern stream upper low
spinning over Baja while a northern stream trough moves across the
Canadian Prairies. An upper level ridge extends from the gulf coast
into Nebraska. A surface cold front stretched from southern
Minnesota to near Scotts Bluff Nebraska at 19Z. Dew points have
dropped into the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon with relative
humidity ranging from around 10 percent in north central Kansas to
the teens across much of northeast and east central Kansas. Expect
extreme fire danger to continue into the early evening hours as
currently forecast. Once again the RAP has been the best performer
with regards to dew points and have used into the mid evening hours.
Tonight the cold front will move south into north central Kansas
this evening, then proceed south across the rest of the area through
the night. Winds will be gusty from the north with sustained speeds
around 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph with a tight pressure
gradient present behind the front. Lows tonight will cool into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As the surface high moves east and south
through the day on Tuesday gusty northeast winds will be on the
decrease in the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Cold advection Tuesday will lead to highs around normal for mid
March with readings in the mid to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.Tuesday Night thru Thursday...
The remnants of the cutoff low in the TX Big Bend will begin to
eject northeastward into the south central plains Tuesday night. As
it does...moisture/warm air advection will spread northeastward into
the cwa with increasing chances of rain late in the night into
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be in the middle to upper 30s
across the south.
Models are in fair agreement on keeping pops mainly across the
southeast half of the county warning area during the day Wednesday
before the shortwave trough passes off to the east and southeast of
the cwa Wednesday night. Will only leave a slight chance for rain in
the far southeast corner. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s.
On Thursday boundary stalls to the south of the cwa...however the
next upstream shortwave trough will be approaching through the day
and have left a slight chance for rain across the southeast half of
the cwa as the NAM and GEM models still develop some rain north of
the front...although the GFS and EC are drier with precip further
south. Highs Thursday with the clouds...northeast winds and precip
chances should be limited to the middle to upper 50s.
.Thursday Night thru Monday...
By Friday afternoon, a split flow pattern begins to set up with a
cut off low situated over the Baja Peninsula and a northern stream
ridge axis over Idaho. This southern system will continue to move
west throughout Saturday, and will allow warm air advection to take
place due to a strong upper level jet streaming in warmer air from
the southwest. A north/south thermal axis on Saturday sets up
highs in the mid 60s to the north transitioning to the lower 70s
to the south.
Highs Sunday will be cooler as a colder airmass to the north skims
the Kansas/Nebraska boarder. After Sunday, models tend to disagree with
how to handle the next wave moving out of the Rockies. As of now,
have a slight chance for precipitation Monday, but this could
change with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
Expect VFR conds to persist through this forecast for the sites.
Biggest issue will be the timing of the cold front which is
expected to move through MHK around 03z to 05z and TOP in 4z to 5z
time frame. Gusty northeast winds will prevail after 06z at all
sites. Expect SCT stratocumulus to develop behind the front but
bulk of guidance and sat obs suggest any CIG restrictions should
stay east of the sites toward sunrise Tues.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller/63
AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
Latest satellite water vapor loop shows southern stream upper low
spinning over Baja while a northern stream trough moves across the
Canadian Prairies. An upper level ridge extends from the gulf coast
into Nebraska. A surface cold front stretched from southern
Minnesota to near Scotts Bluff Nebraska at 19Z. Dew points have
dropped into the 20s and lower 30s this afternoon with relative
humidity ranging from around 10 percent in north central Kansas to
the teens across much of northeast and east central Kansas. Expect
extreme fire danger to continue into the early evening hours as
currently forecast. Once again the RAP has been the best performer
with regards to dew points and have used into the mid evening hours.
Tonight the cold front will move south into north central Kansas
this evening, then proceed south across the rest of the area through
the night. Winds will be gusty from the north with sustained speeds
around 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph with a tight pressure
gradient present behind the front. Lows tonight will cool into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. As the surface high moves east and south
through the day on Tuesday gusty northeast winds will be on the
decrease in the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Cold advection Tuesday will lead to highs around normal for mid
March with readings in the mid to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.Tuesday Night thru Thursday...
The remnants of the cutoff low in the TX Big Bend will begin to
eject northeastward into the south central plains Tuesday night. As
it does...moisture/warm air advection will spread northeastward into
the cwa with increasing chances of rain late in the night into
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night should be in the middle to upper 30s
across the south.
Models are in fair agreement on keeping pops mainly across the
southeast half of the county warning area during the day Wednesday
before the shortwave trough passes off to the east and southeast of
the cwa Wednesday night. Will only leave a slight chance for rain in
the far southeast corner. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s.
On Thursday boundary stalls to the south of the cwa...however the
next upstream shortwave trough will be approaching through the day
and have left a slight chance for rain across the southeast half of
the cwa as the NAM and GEM models still develop some rain north of
the front...although the GFS and EC are drier with precip further
south. Highs Thursday with the clouds...northeast winds and precip
chances should be limited to the middle to upper 50s.
.Thursday Night thru Monday...
By Friday afternoon, a split flow pattern begins to set up with a
cut off low situated over the Baja Peninsula and a northern stream
ridge axis over Idaho. This southern system will continue to move
west throughout Saturday, and will allow warm air advection to take
place due to a strong upper level jet streaming in warmer air from
the southwest. A north/south thermal axis on Saturday sets up
highs in the mid 60s to the north transitioning to the lower 70s
to the south.
Highs Sunday will be cooler as a colder airmass to the north skims
the Kansas/Nebraska boarder. After Sunday, models tend to disagree with
how to handle the next wave moving out of the Rockies. As of now,
have a slight chance for precipitation Monday, but this could
change with future model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR conditions will remain through the entire TAF period. Winds
will continue to be strong and gust out of the southwest. This
evening, expect winds to calm a bit before the cold front moving
in from the North enters the TAF sites about midnight time frame.
Winds should be expected to pick up considerably after passage of
this front and could gust up to the 30kt range or a bit higher
from a northerly direction.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
Sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts to over 30 mph are expected
to continue through the afternoon before decreasing early this
evening. Expect relative humidities to drop into the single digits
in north central Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas as
temperatures remain in the mid and upper 80s. Therefore will keep
the Red Flag Warning going through 8 PM for all counties. The cold
front is expected to move into north central Kansas in the 02Z-03Z
time period then continue to move through the rest of the fire
district by 07Z. Behind the front winds shift to the north, and
rapidly increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
This will be particularly important for any active fires, and or
possible smoldering fuels that could potentially reignite. Very high
fire danger is expected again on Tuesday as dry air remains over the
area and winds continue to be gusty into the afternoon hours.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller/63
AVIATION...Drake
FIRE WEATHER...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.
OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.
TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN FLATTEN SOME ON WEDNESDAY CREATING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS AND NAM BRING SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE
WESTERN FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH THURSDAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. POPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO 60.
IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRESS TO THE
WESTERN CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT) TO THE FA SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTER A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOLING TO THE LOWER
60S SUNDAY/MONDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S EACH
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
BOTH TERMINALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS
WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DROPPING BELOW 12 KT AT KMCK TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KGLD
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY BISECTS OUR CWA...WITH
STRONGEST GRADIENT EITHER SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA.
REGARDING RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES ARE WELL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND TD VALUES
DROPPED TO SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. TD VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SOME
ACROSS THE NW BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER WITH VERY WARM
(RECORD) TEMPS IN PLACE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH 25 MPH ON GUSTS
ANYWHERE BUT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. SOUTHEAST RFW PARTICULARLY LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT NOT
SEE THE 3HR CRITERIA MET THIS AFTERNOON...UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THE 700 MB WINDS ADVERTISED BY RAP. THE NW RFW STILL LOOKS
SOLID BASED ON TRENDS IN YUMA COUNTY. I DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE AT
THIS POINT AS PEAK MIXING IS UNDERWAY...AND WE COULD STILL SEE
STRONGER GUSTS MATERIALIZE.
OTHER COMPLICATION THIS EVENING. IS STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND COLD FRONT...AND WHETHER RH VALUES HAVE RECOVERED ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (IN THE 00-03Z PERIOD)...AFTER CURRENT RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE. GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS INCREASING TD AND FALLING
TEMPS AFTER 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF CROSSOVER
EARLY THIS EVENING (INCLUDING LOCATIONS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE RFW).
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW 15 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH 40KT (OR HIGHER) H85 JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 45
MPH (OR HIGHER) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CAUSE A SUDDEN SHIFT
AND FLARE UP OF ANY ONGOING FIRES. THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING EVEN
IF IT DOES NOT REACH THE THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR RFW.
TUESDAY...WHILE THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS FLOW
BEHINDS TO SHIFT DEEP DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER COULD
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND RESULT IN LOWER MAXES DEPENDING
OPAQUENESS OF CLOUD COVER. OPTIMISTICALLY SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST
COULD WARM IN THE MIDDLE (POSSIBLY UPPER) 50S...WHILE LOCATIONS IN
THE WEST MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 50F. QUITE THE CHANGE FROM THE LAST
3 DAYS. TD VALUES IN THE EAST APPEAR TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...SO RFW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER LOW CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN LOOKS
GOOD. AT THE TAIL END OF THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA GET CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING.
SOME OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60 WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA ALLOWING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION
FORECAST NOR PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
BOTH TERMINALS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS AFTER 06Z AT BOTH TERMINALS
WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DROPPING BELOW 12 KT AT KMCK TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KGLD
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY BEFORE SURFACE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-015-016-
028-029-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING IN TO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
OFF OF THE BAJA COAST IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH WARM MOIST ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S THIS MORNING.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
TODAY:
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.
1. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER - RED FLAG WARNING
2. RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY
FIRST RECORD TEMPERATURES AS THEY WILL LEAD TO THE EXTREME FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA COAST MEANDERS
WESTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS VERY DRY. 00Z/16TH SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS SHOW EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY IN ANTICIPATION OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN
DRY AIR. ADIABATIC HEATING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR...WITH
RECORDS POSSIBLE/LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS NEBRASKA
TODAY PUSHING THE AIRMASS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. FEEL THAT THIS
IS A GOOD PROGNOSTIC INDICATOR FOR WHAT WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE MORNING RAP GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
INCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EVOLUTION IN THE SOUNDING. THUS
USED THE RAP FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY. RECORDS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 80S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFICS.
ALL OF THIS LEADS TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER. YESTERDAY OVER
SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS WITH 20-25 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THIS AIRMASS. FELT THIS WAS THE BEST START TO THE FORECAST TODAY
AND USED RAP MIX-DOWN DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW
TEEN/20S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS COMBINED
WITH THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS CAUSED EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THOSE AREAS HAVE VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. OVERALL...DO NOT BURN AS ANY FIRE
COULD GET OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING
UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOVING IT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTIER THAN
MONDAY...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL STAY IN
THE VERY HIGH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
AND CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CUT OFF LOW WILL BE
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERALL. POSSIBLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE PRECIPITATION...IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S WEDNESDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
AFTER THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXITS...ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL FIRE OFF MORE
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS OVER COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 60S AND
WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 70.
A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH WILL DISLODGE A COOLER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE AREA AND APPROACH AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY COOLING THINGS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONT. MOVED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT KICT
AND KCNU UP A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ARE TRENDING
STRONGER SO INCREASED THE POST FRONTAL WIND FORECAST.
SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AROUND
4KFT. THE 15Z RAP...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY GOOD WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST...REMAINS RATHER DRY TO THE END OF ITS FORECAST
CYCLE IN AWIPS. IT IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL.
KRC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT
CONDITIONS IN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. THIS AIRMASS IS THE AIRMASS THAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RAP GUIDANCE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND USED IT FOR OBTAINING THE MIX-DOWN
DEWPOINT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS AMPLIFY THE
CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER AS ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED COULD GET
OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY.
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHER.
HOWEVER...THESE AREAS REMAIN UNDER VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA
EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CAUSE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE VERY HIGH. NOT EXPECTING EXTREME
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH
WICHITA.....83 DEGREES IN 1908
CHANUTE.....82 DEGREES IN 2012
RUSSELL.....83 DEGREES IN 2012
SALINA......84 DEGREES IN 1901
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 84 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
HUTCHINSON 86 44 59 37 / 0 0 0 30
NEWTON 84 45 58 37 / 0 0 0 30
ELDORADO 84 47 60 38 / 0 0 10 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 83 48 61 40 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELL 88 39 56 32 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 87 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 86 43 59 35 / 0 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 85 44 58 36 / 0 0 0 30
COFFEYVILLE 81 50 62 42 / 0 0 10 80
CHANUTE 82 47 60 40 / 0 0 10 60
IOLA 82 47 59 39 / 0 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 81 49 61 41 / 0 0 10 70
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>095-098.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
456 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST W-E FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR
RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A CLOSED H5 LO MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY. A
PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND IN THE RRQ OF 160KT
H3 JET MAX WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN IS
GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RA STRETCHING FM NRN MN THRU UPR MI
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z
INL/MPX/GRB RAOBS. DRYING ALF AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT IS CAUSING
THE PCPN OVER NRN MN TO DIMINISH STEADILY. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM
15C AT MPX AND ABERDEEN SDAKOTA TO -12C AT THE PAS MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO POPS/DRYING
TREND/PTYPE AS UPSTREAM SHRTWVS/COLD FNT PROPAGATE TO THE ESE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW TNGT/TUE IN THE NW FLOW E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN UNDER DYNAMIC
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT AND BAND OF FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE CWA. WITH BAND OF FGEN
AND SOMEWHAT HIER H85 DEWPTS CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...EXPECT THE
LOWER POPS/RA TOTALS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER/DRIER LLVL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA MAY ALLOW THE
PCPN TO MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE N BEFORE
VIGOROUS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE AND END THE PCPN NW TO SE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CLDS IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUP...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOCLR WITH THE VIGOROUS
DRYING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LO AS THE MID TEENS OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W HALF PER FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR -14C
AND UPSTREAM OBS THIS MRNG.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG NW FLOW OF COLD AIR TO THE
E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES...ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW/DRYNESS OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS/INVERTED V LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL T/TD PROFILES
AND LINGERING LK ICE WL LIMIT LES POPS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF IS FCST TO SWEEP THRU NRN ONTARIO...BUT PASSAGE OF
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE N AND DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NE LK SUP
AND IN AREAS E OF MUNISING THAT WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. BUT EVEN HERE...NO MORE THAN SCHC
POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. THE COMBINATION OF H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35
KTS...CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS.
GOING FCST HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LO 30S NEAR LK SUP TO THE LO 40S
OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S MND IA AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AND
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S HUDSON BAY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED S OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND S
MANITOBA. LOOK FOR THIS FEATURE TO PUSH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE N TIER
COUNTIES AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW EXITS TO
FAR E ONTARIO DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW FAR N.
YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO SIDE IN FROM THE NW FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS COLDER AIR INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL TO AROUND -16 TO -21C /LOWEST N/ BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON STEADY N TO NW WINDS. SFC HIGHS SATURDAY MAY ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT TO THE E SUNDAY EVENING...WITH 850MB
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -11 TO -13C FOR MONDAY...AS WINDS BECOME
MORE OUT OF THE W AND ANY LINGERING LES DIMINISHES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RA TO IMPACT THE SITES THRU THIS AFTN AS A
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE NW. ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE N FLOW WL AID IN LOWERING CIGS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY LO CIGS EVEN AT PLACES IN MN WHERE -RA HAS BEEN
FALLING FOR HRS WARRANTS NO LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR
THE LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE IWD AND SAW WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA WL
FALL. THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH SN FOR A BIT BEFORE STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA ENDS THIS WX EARLY IN THE EVNG
AND CAUSES CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WL BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY N WINDS THIS EVNG...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW
LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE...GUSTY NW WINDS WL IMPACT
ALL THE SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND ON TUE UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A MARGINAL GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER
MAINLY THE E HALF...BUT MENTIONED ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST
OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
405 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAST W-E FLOW
ALOFT EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR
RDG OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A CLOSED H5 LO MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY. A
PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THIS ZONAL FLOW AND IN THE RRQ OF 160KT
H3 JET MAX WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN IS
GENERATING A BAND OF LIGHT RA STRETCHING FM NRN MN THRU UPR MI
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERY DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z
INL/MPX/GRB RAOBS. DRYING ALF AND IN THE WAKE OF COLD FNT IS CAUSING
THE PCPN OVER NRN MN TO DIMINISH STEADILY. 12Z H85 TEMPS RANGE FM
15C AT MPX AND ABERDEEN SDAKOTA TO -12C AT THE PAS MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO POPS/DRYING
TREND/PTYPE AS UPSTREAM SHRTWVS/COLD FNT PROPAGATE TO THE ESE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WL FOLLOW TNGT/TUE IN THE NW FLOW E OF HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
LATE TODAY/TNGT...EXPECT SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTN UNDER DYNAMIC
FORCING IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT AND BAND OF FGEN
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THE CWA. WITH BAND OF FGEN
AND SOMEWHAT HIER H85 DEWPTS CLOSE TO THE WI BORDER...EXPECT THE
LOWER POPS/RA TOTALS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND FAR E. THE ARRIVAL OF
COLDER/DRIER LLVL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA MAY ALLOW THE
PCPN TO MIX WITH SN AT LEAST OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE N BEFORE
VIGOROUS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVE AND END THE PCPN NW TO SE LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SCT CLDS IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS NEAR LK SUP...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOCLR WITH THE VIGOROUS
DRYING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT AS LO AS THE MID TEENS OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR W HALF PER FCST H85 TEMPS NEAR -14C
AND UPSTREAM OBS THIS MRNG.
TUE...UPR MI WL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG NW FLOW OF COLD AIR TO THE
E OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES...ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW/DRYNESS OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS/INVERTED V LOOK TO THE FCST LLVL T/TD PROFILES
AND LINGERING LK ICE WL LIMIT LES POPS. A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF IS FCST TO SWEEP THRU NRN ONTARIO...BUT PASSAGE OF
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL TO THE N AND DRYNESS
OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WX EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER NE LK SUP
AND IN AREAS E OF MUNISING THAT WL BE CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY INCRS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP. BUT EVEN HERE...NO MORE THAN SCHC
POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE. THE COMBINATION OF H925 WINDS UP TO 30-35
KTS...CAA AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY SFC WINDS.
GOING FCST HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LO 30S NEAR LK SUP TO THE LO 40S
OVER THE FAR SCENTRAL SEEM REASONABLE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WILL BE
AT A MINIMUM...THOUGH COULD SEE GUSTY NW WINDS OVER 30 MPH FOR MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TODAY...NO LARGE SCALE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH AT NWS MARQUETTE ARE
OVER 1 INCH AND DEFICITS FOR 2015 THUS FAR ARE NEARING 3 INCHES.
DESPITE TEMPS COOLING OVER RECENT VALUES THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
COLDEST DAYS ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN WAKE OF
STRONGER COLD FRONTS. FOR TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOWER 30S WHILE FAR SCNTRL CWA COULD REACH 40 DEGREES. GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. H85 THERMAL TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ON EDGE OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ON PERIFERY OF UPPER
TROUGH JUSTIFY SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. DRY ELSEWHERE DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AWAY FM THE LIFT FM THE RIBBON OF SHEARING OUT WAVES
ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIPS FM NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. AFTER
A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BLYR WINDS BECOMING WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S
MOST AREAS BY AFTN. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW LOW 50S READINGS INLAND IF
MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH. A BIT OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TRACKING FM NORTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT
LAKES MAY RESULT IN SWATH OF LGT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
APPEARS THAT THIS SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF CWA BUT DID
INCREASE SKY COVER SOME INTO THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORK THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF QPF ON THE FRONT. RETAINED
CONSENSUS FOR NOW. HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST AND NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WINDS SWINGING
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NEAR LK
SUPERIOR WHERE READINGS STAY IN THE 30S. INLAND SCNTRL AREAS WILL
MAKE RUN AT 50 DEGREES AS SNOW COVER IS GONE NOW AND WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AND MIXING TO H85. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR AS QUITE COLD AIR ARRIVES ALOFT BY SATURDAY. H85
TEMPS FM GFS AND ECMWF SOUTH OF -20C. CARRIED SMALL CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT GIVEN THE CHILL OF AIRMASS AND SINCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
SOME OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER ON LK SUPERIOR. WITH A STIFF NNW-N
WIND ON SATURDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...HIGH TEMPS
MAY NOT EVEN REACH 20 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO LK
SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY. CHILLY NIGHT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RA TO IMPACT THE SITES THRU THIS AFTN AS A
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCH FM THE NW. ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE N FLOW WL AID IN LOWERING CIGS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY LO CIGS EVEN AT PLACES IN MN WHERE -RA HAS BEEN
FALLING FOR HRS WARRANTS NO LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR
THE LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE IWD AND SAW WHERE SOME HEAVIER RA WL
FALL. THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH SN FOR A BIT BEFORE STRONG DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA ENDS THIS WX EARLY IN THE EVNG
AND CAUSES CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WL BE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY N WINDS THIS EVNG...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW
LOCATIONS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE...GUSTY NW WINDS WL IMPACT
ALL THE SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015
NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AND ON TUE UNDER
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A MARGINAL GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUE OVER
MAINLY THE E HALF...BUT MENTIONED ONLY GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUE NIGHT AND THEN RUN UNDER 25 KTS THE REST
OF THE WEEK. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVER OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS AND AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOTED OVER NWRN WASHINGTON STATE. WV IMAGERY AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT HAS A NICE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
SPILLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD HAS PUSHED INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE A THIN VEIL OF CLOUDINESS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE
SURFACE...TWO COLD FRONTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN
CANADA TONIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT...EXTENDED ALONG THE
CANADIAN/WESTERN MONTANA BORDER...ESE INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE SECOND WAS 150 TO 250 MILES NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. WITH THE
LEADING FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SRN FRONT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6
HRS. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...VERY MILD READINGS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 48 AT IMPERIAL TO 64 AT
THEDFORD.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN-TACT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGAN TO DROP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES
IN. THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KOGA TO
KONL AT 18Z WHERE LOCATIONS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WERE SEEING
STRONG WARMING...WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MID 80S BY 18Z.
SO STILL ANTICIPATE FURTHER WARMING IN LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE LEAD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING
NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW BY 21Z...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING.
AVOIDED UTILIZING THE MUCH COOLER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AS IT SEEMS
WAY TOO MOIST WITH ITS DEW POINTS...AND OPTED FOR THE MUCH WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAP MODEL H85 TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM OUR 00Z RAOB FROM LAST NIGHT...WE HAD 22C AT H85
AND THE LATEST RAP SOLN HAS AROUND 24C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HIT 85 HERE YESTERDAY...SO UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 SEEM PLAUSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...THIS AREA OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EXTENDS FROM
NORTH PLATTE...TO BROKEN BOW...TO BURWELL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...THE
RECORD HIGH TODAY IS 82...VALENTINE IS 84...BROKEN BOW IS 81 AND
IMPERIAL IS 82. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TDY INCLUDE 80 FOR
VALENTINE...88 FOR NORTH PLATTE...90 FOR BROKEN BOW AND 85 FOR
IMPERIAL. FOR NORTH PLATTE...IF 88 DEGREES IS HIT FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH. FOR
BROKEN BOW...THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 92. WITH
RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL FALL OFF TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...RH WILL RECOVER
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...RECOVERING
FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WE COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME GIVEN EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF
RED FLAG CONDS...WILL NOT HOIST A RFW THIS TIME AND HIT THE FIRE
DANGER FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. FOR TONIGHT...WINDY CONDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
GUSTS UP IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT VERY WARM RECORD BREAKING HEAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING
IN THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH SURFACE HIGHS PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. A DENSE SHIELD OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NEAR 100
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE H500MB-H300MB LAYER. THIS CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
/H850MB TEMPS 5C TO 10C/ WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DECENT MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
TO MIX THE SURFACE...AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD RESULT.
FOR THURSDAY...AM BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORCING IS
QUITE WEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND QUITE A BIT IN
THE WAY OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE AREA. WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
POPS JUST YET...BUT THE TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...OPERATIONAL MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE UPPER PATTERN VERY WELL. THEY SEEM TO WANT TO
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WITH A SERIES OF
RIDGES AND TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH MODEL RUN...AND WILL SIDE
MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
WOULD MEAN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR US...WITH NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO
BE ONE OF THE DRIER MARCH/S. THE DRIEST EVER AT NORTH PLATTE WAS
0.04 INCHES IN 1882. SO FAR THIS MONTH...JUST 0.01 INCHES HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE. UNLESS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL...WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER
CEILINGS AOA 3K FEET MOVING INTO NORTHERN THEN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THESE CEILINGS WILL BE OVER
THE PANHANDLE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
210 PM PDT MON MAR 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS (WHICH UPDATES
HOURLY) HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF JOSEPHINE...COOS AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY,
THEN DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS THE EVENING. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT A FEW COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OF NOTE THE NAM ALSO SHOWS QPF IN
SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT, THEN FINALLY KICKS
NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. AFTER TUESDAY, THE WEATHER WILL BE
RATHER QUIET WITH DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST ON THURSDAY WITH PARTS OF THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS,
INCLUDING MEDFORD GETTING NEAR OR INTO THE LOWER 70S. -PETRUCELLI
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ABOUT THE DETAILS OF AN
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, THE GENERAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY THE SAME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE FRIDAY, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WIND TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH QUICKLY,
WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SUNDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRODUCING
A MUCH DEEPER, STRONGER, AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT SEVEN DAYS OUT, THE DETAILS ARE
OF COURSE QUITE SKETCHY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF SIMILARITY BETWEEN
THE TWO MAIN MODELS, AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS, WHICH
RESULTS IN A POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAINS, AS WELL AS
A CHANCE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO THE ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER
PASSES. WILL MONITOR THESE CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST
CYCLES. -BPN
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 16/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD TODAY...BUT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES AS WELL. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND IN ALL AREA VALLEYS. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PDT MONDAY 16 MAR 2015...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY. -BPN/WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$