Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/15/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
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
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS. COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... VERY WARM WEATHER OCCURRED TODAY...WITH SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD SETTING A DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 89 AT 1230 PM...REPLACING THE OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1994. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS WERE 90 OR 91...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS CONTINUED TO BE MODERATELY STRONG ON THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH NOON-100 PM HOURLY GUSTS STILL LOCALLY IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE WITH FREMONT CANYON WITH A PEAK OF 57 MPH. HRRR SHOWS WINDS DROPPING GRADUALLY BETWEEN 200 PM AND 500 PM...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 200 PM. FAIR VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...INCLUDING AT LINDBERGH FIELD AS ITS RECORDS ARE ONLY 83 AND 80 FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING AROUND 18-19 DEG C...HOTTEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEING ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER SO-CAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLING TREND...THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY DUE TO MORE OF A SEA BREEZE. A MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST STARTING AROUND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK...EVEN WITH THE COOLING. AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION IN SO-CAL. && .AVIATION... 132015Z...FEW CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL...BECOMING SCT-BKN AFTER 14/0600 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THROUGH 14/0000 UTC...NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER MTN RIDGES...ALONG COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN STG TO LOCALLY SVR UDDFS/LLWS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. LLWS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR KCRQ...WHILE GUSTY NE SFC WINDS CONTINUE AT KSNA AND KONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KTRM AND KPSP SHOULD GENERALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 14/0000 UTC. && .MARINE... 115 PM...SOME NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .SKYWARN... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 630 PM UPDATE...RADAR RETURNS ALREADY MOVING IN TO CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN MD. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST RAP, HAVE BEGAN POPS ACROSS THE REGION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND, DEW POINTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE HELP OF ON SHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR VERY LONG, AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FALL LINE. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER. IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE, WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY. GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. RAIN COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KILG AND KRDG AS EARLY AS 00Z, BEFORE SPREADING NE. BY 06Z RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME STEADIER WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFR FROM 12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A HOUR OR TWO GOING FORWARD. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS, GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS. AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED. WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS. IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY ON MONDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLINE HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER. IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE, WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY. GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. BY 09Z RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME STEADIER WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFR FROM 12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A HOUR OR TWO GOING FORWARD. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS, GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS. AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED. WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS. IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY ON MONDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE MARINE...GAINES/KLINE HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY INTO OUR REGION MONDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 12:30 PM UPDATE: LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS A DRY AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BY 1-2 DEGREES TODAY. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOW TO BRING INTO THE REGION, LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO THIS UPDATE PUSHES THE INTRODUCTION OF RAIN INTO THE FORECAST TO LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NOON THEN INCREASING AND SLOWLY LOWERING CIRRUS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER INLAND THAN THURSDAY AND CERTAINLY MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE CHILLING SEABREEZES FROM THE RECENTLY DEICED OCEAN WATERS DROPS AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SSTS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND EARLY TODAY HAS LIMITED PREDAWN RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PRIMARILY NW NJ AND NE PA (N OF I-78). THIS WIND WILL BECOME S-SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5 AM. RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR AND AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE DELMARVA/SE PA AND FAR SW NJ AS A WLY 7H JET OF 55KT DEVELOPS BY 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA WITH A WSW 50 KT JET NOSED INTO THE DELMARVA AND A SW 925MB JET OF 45-50 KT ALSO NOSED INTO THE DELMARVA. SO ITS A DECENT INSTABILITY BURST BUT NO THUNDER. A SMALL CHC OF ICING VCNTY HIGH POINT NJ AND KMPO AT THE ONSET IN THE 2A-5A TIME FRAME AND IN THE HWO ONLY. THE SFC WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY SHOULD BE STRETCHED FROM NEAR KSBY TO NEAR KDCA TO NEAR KEKN (FAR S DE TO WASHINGTON DC AND NRN W.VA). NEAR 100 POP BY 10Z /13. SOME WARMER DEWPOINT CONTACT DEVELOPED DENSE FOG ON COLDER ELEVATED SFC`S NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY (1/4 MI POCONOS WITH 1-2 MI FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE). LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT OUT MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD AMPLIFY SOME INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN TENDS TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. FOR SATURDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURE AND ALSO A SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PULL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO PEAK DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE THE COMBINED LIFT CAN RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH WAA, THE THERMAL PROFILE IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT SUPPORT SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET UP NORTH. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BRIEF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER, WAA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HALT OR REVERSE THE EARLIER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE, WE CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING AND A RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE CWA. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MOST NOTABLE WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST AT NIGHT, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY /ESPECIALLY FROM THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST/. THE SHOWERS THEN END IN THE EVENING AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN. OVERALL, THE TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA WITH NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY, THEN THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST, COLDER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS LIKE LESS OF A CHC NOW AS THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT TRACKS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH. WE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR NOW. AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SOME COOLING TAKES PLACE, WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FOR AWHILE AND THEREFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. WE DID BOOST THE WINDS SOME FOR A TIME SUNDAY. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS SOME MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST AND THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLING, AND THE FASTER FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A QUICK MOVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT. FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUR AREA TO START TUESDAY, THEN WE ARE LEFT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST AND OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD RESULT IN A COLDER REGIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 25000. LIGHT NE WIND. AFTER 12Z...SCT CIRRUS AOA 25000 FT LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT NE WIND BECOMING S- SE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT: VFR CIGS TO START BECOMING IFR OR LIFR IN RAIN/STRATUS/FOG EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND. PLS SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS. SLIGHTEST CHC OF A FEW ICE PELLETS AT THE START VCNTY KRDG AND KABE AROUND 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME FOG, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT NIGHT. SUNDAY...VFR CEILING AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS AOB 4 FT. N WIND 10-15 KT BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND MAINLY STAYS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER ON SUNDAY, SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR NEARSHORE ALTHOUGH LESS MIXING MAY RESULT OVER THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROBABLY STILL MILD ENOUGH. THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY WILL IMPACT HOW QUICKLY THE SEAS BUILD. AS OF NOW, KEPT IT MARGINAL AND THEREFORE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH BETTER MIXING, THEREFORE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RAIN SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND HELPING TO DRAW UP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, THE FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY FROM ABOUT 700 MB ON UP. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOWER QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, PLUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE AIMED MORE TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY. OVERALL, THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE THE 6-HOUR FFG HAS SOME SPOTS /BASICALLY ALONG EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 95/ AROUND OR UNDER AN INCH, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW SMALLER FAST RESPONDING STREAMS GETTING TO MINOR FLOOD, THE THREAT LOOKS LOCALIZED ENOUGH AND THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM /NOTE, NO FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ATTM/. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...GAINES SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE MARINE...DRAG/GORSE HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1206 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF. LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT AFTER 05Z. SO WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR/FOG AT OGB LATE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECREASING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING. MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE MID NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IN EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECREASING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING. MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING WEDGE. WITH THE WEDGE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE WILL COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE OVER OUR FA. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TO OUR W/SW WHERE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESIDES. UPPER IMPULSE TO MOVE TO THE NE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST GRADUALLY INCREASING LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY W FA/CSRA...SPREADING E/NE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING. WEDGE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP AS LIGHT RAIN COMMENCES. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DID RAISE THEM A DEGREE OR TWO AND ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THEY ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST. TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... WEDGE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BLANKET THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS. ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH...HOWEVER AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. CONDITIONS WILL BEING IMPROVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED/THU WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING. MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM... 330 PM CDT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. KREIN && .LONG TERM... 330 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. . KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z... * POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIORT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. * WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT AND LASING THROUGH TOMORROW. RATZER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z... * LOW IN IFR CIGS REACHING ORD THIS EVENING...MEDIUM-LOW ON REACHING MDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR. * HIGH ON WIND TRENDS RATZER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 225 PM CDT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
331 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM... 330 PM CDT REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. KREIN && .LONG TERM... 330 PM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S. SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. . KREIN && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE * SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR. * HIGH ON WIND TRENDS KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 225 PM CDT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
225 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM... 313 AM CDT TODAY AND TONIGHT... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE 50S. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. RODRIGUEZ && .LONG TERM... 225 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE. STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE * SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR. * HIGH ON WIND TRENDS KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 225 PM CDT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM... 313 AM CDT TODAY AND TONIGHT... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE 50S. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. RODRIGUEZ && .LONG TERM... 225 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE. STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR 40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR. BEACHLER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE * SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING KMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR. * HIGH ON WIND TRENDS KMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...VFR. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. RODRIGUEZ && .MARINE... 225 AM CDT LOW PRESSURE WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN SECTIONS GUSTING UP TO 30KT BEFORE THIS AFTN...THEN BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT MON LATE AFTN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY MONDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 FOG IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BURNED OFF TODAY LEADING TO NEAR UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF US HAS ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. NO REAL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BUMPING UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SAT. THE REST OF TODAY A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY ONE MODEL SUGGESTS MVFR VSBYS IN THE AM...BUT DO NOT THINK IT IS ACCURATE AS THE MODEL STILL THINKS THERE IS SNOW AROUND. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FROPA. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/13. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/14. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MVFR VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. AFT SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F COOLER. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE 10-18 KT THIS EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...SUGDEN FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
230 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ...UPDATED SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO 850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F COOLER. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS OF CIG IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS INCREASE 20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY AS THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SUGDEN LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...SUGDEN FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS. THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE STILL POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...KAS/JP AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QFP VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE STILL POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
142 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST. IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE STILL POSSIBLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON. ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE CURRENT RADAR LOOPS. DID ALSO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH DAWN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 JUST SENT OUT AND UPDATED SET OF ZONES. THE LATEST MODEL DATA...NAM12...HRRR...AND GFS...ALL HAS PUSHED PRECIPITATION ONSET BACK BY A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WHICH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND BACK OFF ON PRECIP ONSET ACROSS OUR AREA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEATHER TYPE...QPF...HOURLY POP AND POP12. ALSO INCREASED TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPS AND THE LATER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY UNDER PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING DUE TO STRONG LOW-TO-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND ONSET OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE TO BE AROUND 12Z FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS...SAVE THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS...ARE STILL PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND POINTS TO OUR WEST. THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN WITH HIGH QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE AND IS AN OBVIOUS OUTLIER...SO PUT LESS TRUST INTO THIS MODEL. AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NOW THAT THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LATER ONSET OF THE PRECIP...IT GIVES EASTERN KY MORE TIME TO DRY OUT. HIGHEST QPF IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE WILL BE OVER OUR NW CWA...WITH 1-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE GROUND...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL TURN INTO RUNOFF...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING RUNNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IN PLACE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH ONGOING RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THOUGH WITH RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER DURATION...WILL SEE A LESSER THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS INHERITED FROM THE SUPER BLEND. AFTERWARD...THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SINCE THE SUPER BLEND HAD THIS FOR TUESDAY. AFTER THIS PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS ID LOW. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE HERE TO STAY AS THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1010 PM UPDATE: SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST WERE LOWERED A TAD FROM THE AFTN FCST UPDATE DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN A BRIEF CHG OVR TO RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG RESULTS IN MAX SN TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN. WE ALSO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MESO- MODELS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS UNLIKE THE 18Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BROAD WITH THERE DEPICTED DEFORMATION BANDING...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR CNTRL TO PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN INTO SUN MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT TOWARD LOWER SNFL ALSO AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS SHOWN BY THE AVG OF THE TOP 10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ON LINE ANALOG PAGE IN ADDITION TO PAST CLIMATOLOGY OF SFC LOWS TRACKING ENE FROM THE MID NEW COAST TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS. ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR BY EVENING. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CN CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
956 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE: SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST WERE LOWERED A TAD FROM THE AFTN FCST UPDATE DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN A BRIEF CHG OVR TO RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG RESULTS IN MAX SN TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN. WE ALSO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MESO-MODELS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS UNLIKE THE 18Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR CNTRL TO PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN INTO SUN MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT TOWARD LOWER SNFL ALSO AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS SHOWN BY THE AVG OF THE TOP 10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ON LINE ANALOG PAGE IN ADDITION TO PAST CLIMATOLOGY OF SFC LOWS TRACKING ENE FROM THE MID NEW COAST TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS. ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR BY EVENING. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
838 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE DROPPING SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST A TAD DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN A BRIEF CHG OVR TO RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG RESULTS IN MAX SN TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN. WE ALSO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS...WHICH UNLIKE THE 18Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR CNTRL TO PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN INTO SIN MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO SE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT ALSO AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS SHOWN BY THE AVG OF THE TOP 10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ON LINE ANALOG PAGE. WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS THRU THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED ON ERLY EVE OBSVD TEMPS. ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR BY EVENING. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .CLIMATE... MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925 THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT. SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT 12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO -17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER EXIST. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX AND IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR AT KSAW BY LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SUN...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE SE...PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC LYR...KIWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS. KSAW AND KIWD WILL SEE GUSTS AOA 25KT IN THE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI PRES MOVES CLOSER. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT AND A VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY FOR SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. FOR TONIGHT...ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO BRING SOME REGIONAL-GEM NUMBERS INTO THE LOWS TONIGHT TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SOME OUT IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT BETTER IN THE WEST. FOR SATURDAY...WE ARE EXPECTING FULL SUNSHINE. SINCE THIS WARMUP HAS STARTED...CLEAR DAYS HAVE YEILDED HIGHS AT OR EVEN ABOVE THE TOP END OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM...SO BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW...GETTING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH A BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND...WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM. SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MN...WITH LOWS IN WI LIKELY BEING REACHED AROUND 6Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST HOLD STEADY. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A 925-850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WORK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS IN THIS LAYER MORE THAN SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF MN SOUTH OF I-94...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THURSDAY...BUT LIKE WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY...THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR SUNDAY IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUD COVER BE. WE WILL SEE THE UPPER JET MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AS THEY ROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM SOCAL UP TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE...BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL IT IMPACT HIGHS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT TRICK...AS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NODAK WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOL OUT AHEAD OF IT TO SEE DEWPOINTS UP IN THE 40S...BUT THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A TONGUE OF MUCH DRIER AIR COMING OUT AHEAD OF THIS PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY WE MIX. DID NOT TAKE DEWPOINTS THAT LOW...BUT CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN REMAINING IN THE LOW 30S...WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT. WIND DIRECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SW DIRECTION FOR GETTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA /AS OPPOSED TO THE SSE WINDS WE SAW THURSDAY/...SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT DEWPOINTS GETTING LOWER. THOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WINDS LOOK TO BE AN ABSOLUTE SLAM DUNK. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS AT FRM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH SHOW A DEEP /FOR MARCH/ AND DRY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TOP OF THE MIX CHANNEL WINDS IN THE LOW 40 KTS...WITH MID CHANNEL WINDS IN THE MID 30S. WAA SW WINDS TEND TO NOT REACH TOP OF THE CHANNEL LEVELS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS MORE THAN SUPPORT SEEING SW WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE COMBINED PROBABILITY FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 30% OFF THE SREF...THIS HIGHLIGHTS WELL THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK WORSE DOWN TOWARD THE SIOUX CITY AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE HEADLINED THE FWF WITH THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE HWO. WE DISCUSSED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT THERE ARE STILL TOO MANY IFS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND GEM 13.12 ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING OF THIS FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO MANAGE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 PATCH OF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AXN IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS MIXING INCREASES. THE HRRR HANDLED THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS WELL...SO FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR CIGS GOING INTO TONIGHT. BASICALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NE MN/NW WI...WITH QUESTION BEING HOW FAR SOUTH DO THEY EXTEND. BASED ON THE GFS/RAP/HRRR...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL MPX TERMINALS...THOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT THIS CLOUDS BRIEFLY GRAZING RNH/EAU LATE TONIGHT...WHICH EXPLAINS THE FEW025 CLOUD GROUPS THAT SHOW UP AT THOSE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE AXN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WRN MN. ATTENDANT LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A VERY ACHIEVABLE 10 DEGREE TEMP DROP. FOR NOW...HAVE AN MVFR VIS IN THERE...BUT THE LAMP HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LIFR VIS IN FG. OTHER THAN THAT...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM WHAT IS NOTED ABOVE. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. WINDS S AT 20G30 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20G25 KTS. TUE...VFR. WNW 5-10 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED 20 MPH...AS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THERE ARE TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THE EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT HIGHS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE DEALT WITH THURSDAY. THE OTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LOW WILL DEWPOINTS BE. IF WE SEE THEM STAY STEADY AROUND 30...THEN HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE NO TROUBLE FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT WHERE TEMPERATURES MEET OR EXCEED 70. IF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMING IN AHEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN HUMIDITIES WOULD LIKELY HANG UP IN THE 30S...EVEN IF WE DO SEE HIGHS AROUND 70. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...MPG FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
923 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER. FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY. LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH 700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12 SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER /700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND 208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM NEEDED THE WARNING. ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY CHANGES. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ206-209- 210-219. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-208. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BROOKS SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...KECK FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... 19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY. THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C. DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE... PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION. WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH. STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING. 50 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING OF THE WIND FLOW. CANT RULE OUT GUSTS TO 35 KT AT ABQ SO AN AWW WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 22Z TO 2Z. WILL BE MONITORING THAT CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HIT AND MISS SH/TS. USING VCSH AND TEMPO SH AT QUITE A FEW TERMINAL SITES LIKE FMN/SAF/AEG AND ABQ. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WEST SO GUP HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME TS IMPACTS SO USED VCTS FOR THAT TERMINAL SITE BETWEEN 22Z TO 0Z. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY IMPACTS PRIOR TO 22Z THERE. MODERATELY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. CANT RULE OUT SOME OCCNL MTN TOP OBSCD AND GRAUPEL ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS DUE TO PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH RISING DECKS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 35 65 31 69 / 20 5 5 0 DULCE........................... 25 62 24 67 / 30 10 5 0 CUBA............................ 29 60 29 66 / 30 20 10 0 GALLUP.......................... 28 63 25 70 / 30 10 5 0 EL MORRO........................ 30 56 28 63 / 30 10 5 0 GRANTS.......................... 25 59 22 67 / 20 10 5 0 QUEMADO......................... 32 57 30 64 / 20 5 5 0 GLENWOOD........................ 39 67 37 74 / 20 5 0 0 CHAMA........................... 23 57 21 63 / 30 20 10 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 58 35 65 / 20 10 5 0 PECOS........................... 32 55 31 64 / 10 10 5 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 56 23 64 / 20 10 5 0 RED RIVER....................... 23 48 24 55 / 30 20 10 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 49 18 58 / 30 20 10 5 TAOS............................ 26 58 25 66 / 10 10 5 0 MORA............................ 29 54 27 64 / 20 10 10 0 ESPANOLA........................ 32 65 32 72 / 10 5 5 0 SANTA FE........................ 35 57 35 65 / 10 10 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 63 31 70 / 10 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 63 40 69 / 10 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 66 38 72 / 10 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 67 35 71 / 10 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 68 37 73 / 10 5 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 36 67 33 72 / 10 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 39 67 37 72 / 10 5 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 39 67 36 71 / 10 5 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 59 35 65 / 20 10 5 0 TIJERAS......................... 36 65 35 70 / 10 5 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 60 24 67 / 10 5 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 58 31 65 / 10 5 5 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 58 31 65 / 10 5 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 37 63 32 67 / 10 5 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 31 56 30 63 / 20 10 10 0 CAPULIN......................... 32 58 28 68 / 10 5 0 0 RATON........................... 30 60 25 70 / 10 5 5 0 SPRINGER........................ 30 59 25 70 / 10 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 29 56 27 67 / 10 5 5 0 CLAYTON......................... 38 62 34 72 / 5 0 0 0 ROY............................. 33 60 30 68 / 10 5 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 41 65 35 72 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 38 65 33 71 / 10 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 37 68 31 76 / 5 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 38 65 33 71 / 5 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 38 64 33 70 / 5 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 39 66 34 71 / 5 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 41 67 35 69 / 5 5 0 0 PICACHO......................... 40 60 33 64 / 10 10 5 0 ELK............................. 37 54 33 59 / 10 20 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT... WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER ON MONDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 714 PM EDT SATURDAY...I`VE MADE GENERALLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS, POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH 06Z WITH THIS UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES WHICH TAKE EFFECT AT 1 PM FOR NORTH-CENTRAL VT AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREAS. SPOTTY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY EVENING IN SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. THIS OCCLUDED BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR OTTAWA THRU THE I-81 STRETCH OF NY STATE. A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS IT, PROJECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST HRRR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SHOWERY/SPOTTY ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP (LIKELY AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW) CONFINED TO NORTHERN VT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL THROUGH 800 MB AND RIGHT AROUND 0C UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AFFORDS A CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW AS COLUMN UNDERGOES FURTHER TOP-DOWN COOLING. I`VE USED THE LATEST RAP THERMAL FIELDS FOR WX POPULATION THROUGH 06Z, WHICH YIELDS SOME POCKETS OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT THRU LATE EVENING GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE THERE, BUT LOOKING AT LARGELY RAIN ELSEWHERE UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPS TO FALL MORE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 352 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS... HAVE BROADENED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. RADAR INDICATING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALSO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE FORCING IS GREATER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THAT WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT HOWEVER AS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...LOOK FOR SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO GULF OF MAINE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE RAIN OR A MIX TO START...BUT THEN IT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST FORCING LIES ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH 3-7 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND 6-12 INCHES ATOP THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE`LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL TURN MILDER WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AROUND 40. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ENHANCED BY NW UPSLOPE FLOW ON TUESDAY, TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONTINUED COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NW FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH SOME -20C POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE GENERALLY 20S, WARMING TO THE 30S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SUBZERO TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARMING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD -FZRA (AT MPV) WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 02-05Z TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. A 2-3 HOUR OF IFR SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE CHANGEOVER...FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A LULL (3-5SM -SN)...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR SNOWFALL SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS INTENSIFY FROM THE NNW. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT S-SE WINDS THROUGH 06Z...THEN GRADUALLY VEERING TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15G25KT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL SEE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...-SHSN TAPERING OFF DURING SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. N-NW WINDS MODERATE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SHSN WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT... WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER ON MONDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 714 PM EDT SATURDAY...I`VE MADE GENERALLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS, POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH 06Z WITH THIS UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES WHICH TAKE EFFECT AT 1 PM FOR NORTH-CENTRAL VT AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM AREAS. SPOTTY PRECIPITATON COVERAGE EARLY EVENING IN SATURATED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. THIS OCCLUDED BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR OTTAWA THRU THE I-81 STRETCH OF NY STATE. A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS IT, PROJECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST HRRR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SHOWERY/SPOTTY ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP (LIKELY AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW) CONFINED TO NORTHERN VT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL THROUGH 800 MB AND RIGHT AROUND 0C UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AFFORDS A CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW AS COLUMN UNDERGOES FURTHER TOP-DOWN COOLING. I`VE USED THE LATEST RAP THERMAL FIELDS FOR WX POPULATION THROUGH 06Z, WHICH YIELDS SOME POCKETS OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT THRU LATE EVENING GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE THERE, BUT LOOKING AT LARGELY RAIN ELSEWHERE UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPS TO FALL MORE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS. PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 352 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS... HAVE BROADENED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. RADAR INDICATING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALSO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE FORCING IS GREATER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THAT WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT HOWEVER AS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...LOOK FOR SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO GULF OF MAINE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE RAIN OR A MIX TO START...BUT THEN IT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 352 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST FORCING LIES ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH 3-7 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND 6-12 INCHES ATOP THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE`LL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL TURN MILDER WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AROUND 40. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ENHANCED BY NW UPSLOPE FLOW ON TUESDAY, TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONTINUED COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NW FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH SOME -20C POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE GENERALLY 20S, WARMING TO THE 30S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SUBZERO TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARMING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY LEAVING MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITHOUT PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST AND SURGE OF MORE MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 21Z. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW STARTING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z AT KMSS/KSLK...03Z-06Z AT KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT. AS RAIN MIXES TO SNOW...VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT NW AND PICK UP TO 10-15KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN CONTINUED SNOW. FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES AT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WHEN MORE STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA, BEFORE SHIFTING W/NW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY LATE MORNING WILL SEE NW WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESP AT KMSS. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-SHSN TAPERING OFF WITH LESS COVERAGE AFTER 15Z. 00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SHSN WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-016. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJS NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...RJS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM FRIDAY... ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT IN THE CWA... WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. RETURNS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA DON`T SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND PER OBSERVATIONS... DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z... AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD. MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40 KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43. FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN... SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT. FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED... AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC. EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO- BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...RAH/ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... QUITE A FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A GREAT JOB OF ANTICIPATING HOW DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEEN. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST PLACES. SYNOPTICALLY THE CURRENT 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE TRI-STATE NY/NJ/CT AREA IS IN A FABULOUS LOCATION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AND WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE EASTERLY WINDS OVER US RIGHT NOW BUT THE WEDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE OVER AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL EVAPORATE INTO THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AS VIRGA BEFORE EVER REACHING THE GROUND. THIS COULD PREVENT THE WEDGE FROM EVER REALLY LOCKING IN AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY CREATING MORE OF AN IN-SITU DAMMING SETUP. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY WIN THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP TO HIGHER VALUES THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED WITH LOW 50S IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL BE STEADY BUT LIGHT AND QPF VALUES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40 KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43. FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN... SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT. FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED... AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC. EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO- BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED. IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO. WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR FOG/STRATUS COULD BUILD INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS POSSIBLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...TM FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH 19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED. IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO. WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS SOUTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 22-23 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS POSSIBLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046. && $$ SHORT TERM...AYD LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...AYD FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED UPON POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID- AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED AT KMOT...YET WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 20-21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING AS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. WILL CHECK OVER WINDS BEFORE SENDING OUT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT 925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT. MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOPPES SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID- AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT AND KJMS LONGER INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID- AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN AND KJMS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT LONGER INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...AYD FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT 925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT. MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY AFTERNOON. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIDDLE LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
932 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHRA OF RAIN OR SNOW DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS VERSUS THE RUC. THE HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP INITIALIZING WITH FAR MORE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT SO QUESTION THE FORECAST OUTPUT. WILL BACK POPS IN THE SNOWBELT AREA DOWN A LITTLE MORE PER THE RUC. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE NOT LOOKING DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE SW HALF HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS THERE TO FALL MORE THAN NE BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TEMP FALLS IN THE SW HALF WILL SLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SOME. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ABOUT THE SW HALF OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI AND SHOULD ROTATE SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THESE CLOUDS SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST. VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 06Z FROM KCLE AND KMFD EASTWARD. KTOL WILL ALSO GET BACK INTO THE CLOUDS BUT KFDY SHOULD ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING SKC FROM WEST TO EAST. W TO NW FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS IS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012- 014-018-019-089. PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOL AREA STAYING OUT OF THE RAIN SO WILL LOWER THE POP THERE...ESPECIALLY NW LUCAS CO. THE QPF STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOWEST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE HIGHEST MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE NUISANCE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA AS QPF THERE...EVEN THOUGH HEAVIER THAN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES... SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER THAT NEEDED FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE HIGH WATER PONDING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY AS IS. CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. THE RUNOFF FROM THE WARM RAIN EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WILL KEEP THE ICE MOVING AND ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. THE LOWS ARE ALSO TRICKY. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WITH DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE RAIN WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO HANG UNTO TO SOME SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETTING DOWN TO 8 DEGREES AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR MONDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A LITTLE SUN AND THAT COULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE. THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM FOR MONDAY. IT SEEMS TOO WARM VERSUS THE OTHER MODELS. WENT CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE SHOULD WRAP UP DURING THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO BEGIN TO RETURN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE SW ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA. WILL TRY TO TIME THIS PRECIP NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OVERALL...THE NEW PACKAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE RAIN WILL START WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN THEN CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DIP TO MVFR. FOR THE NE 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS WON`T OCCUR TILL AFTER DARK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT IN THE TAFS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BY 12Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT FLIPPING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WATCH AREA THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL HELP MOVE ICE IN THE RIVERS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS. EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WATCH AREA WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE COVERED. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE ROCKY RIVER IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY WAS FREE OF ICE. DID NOT EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO NEARLY AN INCH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014- 018>023-033-089. PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...KUBINA HYDROLOGY...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .AVIATION... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST...AFFECTING KOUN AND KOKC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KLAW AND KSPS EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ UPDATE... INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND LAWTON/DUNCAN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE... RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR. JTK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK. LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL. BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH. TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE- THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 70 20 10 0 HOBART OK 71 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0 GAGE OK 74 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0 DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 100 50 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 99/99/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .UPDATE... INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND LAWTON/DUNCAN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE... RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR. JTK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK. LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL. BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH. TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE- THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0 HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0 GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0 DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE... RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR. JTK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK. LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL. BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH. TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE- THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0 HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0 GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0 DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK. LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL. BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH. TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE- THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. JTK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0 HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0 GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0 DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 .UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 14/06Z. EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHWRS TO CONTINUE THRU 13/09Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCSH UNTIL THEN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING PREDOMINATE RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AFTER 13/09Z. WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR THRU 13/09Z TO PREDOMIANTE MVFR...AND THEN IFR CEILINGS...THRU 14/06Z. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PREDOMINATE MVFR VSBYS THRU 14/06Z ALSO. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES AT CKV BETWEEN 14/10Z-14/14Z PER EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED THRU 14/06Z ALSO AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF 18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. WET WX PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 13/24Z. DO NOT EXPECT PREDOMINATE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 13/06Z TAF SITES...AND WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WILL MENTION VCSH. EXPECT NIMBO-STRATUS VFR CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR/ALONG WITH VSBYS...BY 13/06Z. THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU 13/24Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST ENHANCED CKV BETWEEN 13/09Z-13/14Z PER EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED THRU 13/24Z ALSO AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF 18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP. OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID- STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE SAME. RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST. EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION, CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY). LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095. && $$ 31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... A weak surface cold front appears to be located from south of KROW eastward to near KBGS. It`s hard to define the boundary right now as insolation is offsetting meager cold air advection. In addition, much of the Permian Basin is sitting in a col in the surface pressure field, meaning that winds are light and variable and the cold front will become a bit more diffuse. Winds will become northerly/ northeasterly in the 10-15 mph range around midday. Convection- allowing models are developing an extensive CU field by mid afternoon across the Permian Basin south across the lower Trans Pecos and west across southeastern New Mexico. Within a few hours of max heating, WRF and HRRR model data and BUFR soundings suggest a few -SHRA developing over southeastern New Mexico. With a dry sub-cloud layer, however, the chances for measurable precip are pretty low. This CU field will dissipate around if not before sunset as the PBL decouples; however, we will see an increase in mid-level moisture through the overnight hours. Winds will back a bit and drop off some overnight. A secondary cold front, now nosing into northeastern New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, is expected to arrive during the morning hours Saturday. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today given the mid-level cloud deck and weak surface cold air advection. The upshot here is that winds will pick up again out of the north to northeast into the 10-15 mph range by mid morning, with higher gusts possible by midday Saturday as the low level pressure gradient increases. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all area TAF sites through 18Z Saturday. Northeast winds AOA 11 kts will appear for a few hours this afternoon before falling off around sunset. North to northeast winds will pick up above 11 kts by mid morning Saturday, with gusts up above 15 kts possible by the 18Z Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with mid and high clouds gradually increasing over the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds this morning will increase from the northeast this afternoon, though are expected to remain aob 12KT, and will diminish slightly after sunset. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/ DISCUSSION... In the upper levels have persistent upper trough over Central Plains that will develop a cut off low over Mexico. This low retrogrades back to the west before weakening and being swept across the area early next week. As this happens another upper trough will work down the west coast keeping the region in SW flow aloft through the end of the week. The result is an active upper pattern that will keep potential for rain/storms in the forecast. Will have increasing mid and high clouds today moving in from the west. These should hang around most of the day but not have much affect on temps. Mild wx will continue today with slightly above normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. The wind will come around to the north today but not expecting the arrival of a weak cold front until Saturday. Should only be a few degrees cooler on Saturday and Sunday. Highs return to the 70s by Monday as wind becomes southerly. May receive another weak front the middle of next week but models are having a hard time bringing it through. Could be some showers and storms Saturday south of the Pecos River... mainly over the higher elevations. Better chances of precip next week. Storm chances begin Monday night down south and spread across the area Tuesday and Wednesday as remains of lift track over the area. Pops decrease a little on Thursday then pick up again on Friday ahead of next upper trough. Currently best chance of precip looks to be late Tuesday/early Wednesday. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 70 Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY THIS EVENING AS A PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KSHV MOVES NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO CIGS/VSBY. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG WHILE THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS. EXTRAPOLATING THE RAP AND HRRR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/ UPDATE...EXITING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER TEXARKANA AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAINS OVER TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH RAINS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU COVERS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MARCOTTE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 52 69 51 70 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 66 53 71 54 72 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 66 57 68 57 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015 .AVIATION... /6Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING BUT LOWER CIGS ARE JUST BARELY TO THE EAST. SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS HAVE AFFECTED GKY/DAL BUT NOTHING MORE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH TO THE LOWER CLOUDS AND THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW A LOWERING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT AND GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. DUNN && .UPDATE... NO WHOLESALE CHANGES IN THIS EVENING UPDATE. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS OF TEMPS...DP...AND SKY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT LITTLE OF THIS RAIN HAS ARRIVED...YET. WE STILL EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD SOME OVERNIGHT. THE NAM SERIES STILL WANTS TO EXPAND PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS DO NOT. I WILL SIDE WITH THE HI-RES HRRR AND DELAY A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE RAIN INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/ A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES...WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO ATHENS LINE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SATURDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WILL HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT GONE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 53 68 47 / 30 50 30 20 10 WACO, TX 51 71 52 69 47 / 20 20 10 20 10 PARIS, TX 51 63 52 68 48 / 80 80 40 20 10 DENTON, TX 50 64 51 68 44 / 20 40 30 20 5 MCKINNEY, TX 51 63 51 67 46 / 40 50 30 20 10 DALLAS, TX 52 66 53 68 48 / 30 50 30 20 10 TERRELL, TX 52 65 52 67 47 / 50 50 30 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 52 67 52 68 49 / 40 40 30 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 50 73 51 70 48 / 10 20 10 20 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 20 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
922 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 922 PM EDT SATURDAY... COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY END TONIGHT. THE HRRR...RNK WRFARW SHOWED MOST OF RAIN SHOULD END BY 03Z-06Z. IN GENERAL...DECREASED POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS AND MODEL TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HELD ON TO CLOUDS IN THE WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUDS IN THE EAST TONIGHT LEANING TOWARDS THE CMCREG. WIND ADVISORIES REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A 55 TO 60 MPH JET WHICH PIVOTS ACROSS OUR REGION. PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BUT CONCERN THAT COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE. AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY. AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70 ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS. OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY... COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7. TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY... IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUED POOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LAST BAND OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW VIRGINIA/NW-NC NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 03Z...THEN DISSIPATE. FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH ATTENDANT MFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER FROM DAN-LYH UNTIL THIS PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR. ROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. LWB/BLF SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING WELL INTO SUNDAY...PERHAPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY DRIFT ACROSS BLF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NOTED ABOVE...THE BUT THE AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH NOR IS THE FLOW OVERLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT -SHSN OR EVEN MUCH -SHRA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT ADVERTISED SUCH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT BCB THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME VFR AT TIMES. OVERALL VSBYS...SHOULD BE VFR-MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AFT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL YIELD WNW WINDS 13-17KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z SUN...BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT PASSES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. OVERALL...MOST VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FIRST PART OF THE WEEK THAN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-012>020-022>024. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...KK/NF SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY... MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY. AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70 ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS. OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY... COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7. TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY... IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUED POOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LAST BAND OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW VIRGINIA/NW-NC NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 03Z...THEN DISSIPATE. FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH ATTENDANT MFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER FROM DAN-LYH UNTIL THIS PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR. ROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. LWB/BLF SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING WELL INTO SUNDAY...PERHAPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY DRIFT ACROSS BLF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NOTED ABOVE...THE BUT THE AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH NOR IS THE FLOW OVERLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT -SHSN OR EVEN MUCH -SHRA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT ADVERTISED SUCH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT BCB THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME VFR AT TIMES. OVERALL VSBYS...SHOULD BE VFR-MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AFT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL YIELD WNW WINDS 13-17KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z SUN...BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT PASSES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. OVERALL...MOST VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FIRST PART OF THE WEEK THAN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-012>020-022>024. NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...KK/NF SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY... SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT ADVANCING MUCH FURTHER EAST AS THESE BANDS ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 14/00Z OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS... WHERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE. DURING THE 14/00Z TO 14/03Z TIMEFRAME...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS...LTE 1KFT...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AND...WHILE NOT FALLING CONTINUOUSLY...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ON THAN OFF. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE... RAMPING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY... FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...NF/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...NF/WP HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY... SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH THE SURFACE. TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA... ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY... ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DECOUPLE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY... RAIN WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BRING CIGS TO MVFR IN BLF/BCB/LWB IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...REACHING ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO LIFR AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT TRACKING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. VSBYS WILL ALSO CREEP TO IFR AT TIMES. THINK IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN OFF. OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL STAY UNDER 1KFT. MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY... FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...NF/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/KK/WP HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY... ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN NE TN AND WILL SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES INTO THE NC MTNS THROUGH 3-4AM. THIS WILL HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL STAY WEST OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE MORNING...MAKING INROADS TO OUR SW CWA BEFORE NOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AS A LEE SIDE WEDGE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA FIRST AS INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DATA HELD ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 12Z/8AM. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL START ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHWEST POTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. THROUGH THE DAY...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND. BY NOON...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEWISBURG WV TO DANVILLE VA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT HAVE RECEIVED ANY RAIN YET. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THIS LINE...SO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY WILL HAVE RECEIVED SOME RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLEST ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... A WET FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BREEZY AND DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A MILD DAY FOR SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...THIS AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...FROM OHIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN CULMINATING IN AN HOUR OR TWO PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...THE RAIN THREAT WILL THEN COME TO AN END. MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION FOR THIS EVENT. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA. BY SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...YIELDING BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY... AIRMASS PRETTY DRY AND THINK FOG THREAT FOR LWB WILL BE TOO LOW SO REMOVED TEMPO THERE. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS THEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING SUB VFR CIGS TIL MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM LWB/BLF/BCB SOUTHWEST...REACHING ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN ABOUT 1-3 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SUB IFR...WITH WEDGE HOLDING SOME. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SE WILL OCCUR AT BLF IN THIS PATTERN THRU MIDDAY...THEN WHEN RAIN MOVES IN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME. MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA. A HALF INCH OF RAIN SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS OR STREAMS. HOWEVER...AN INCH OF RAIN MAY CAUSE STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES TO APPROACH ACTION STAGE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/KK/WP HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AHEAD WILL DISSIPATE ONE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS. DOWN-SLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE CENTER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH DOWN-SLOPE FLOW AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. OUR FORECAST INCLUDES A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF. LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF. LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
340 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS... THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT. AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT. REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY. COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS. SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW- SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS. STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH. FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 RECORDS FOR TODAY GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935 YUMA........81 SET IN 2003 MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935 RECORDS FOR MONDAY GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012 COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013 TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013 HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012 YUMA........78 SET IN 2013 MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029. CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
328 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS... THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT. AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT. REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY. COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS. SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW- SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS. STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH. FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 RECORDS FOR TODAY GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935 YUMA........81 SET IN 2003 MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935 RECORDS FOR MONDAY GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012 COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013 TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013 HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012 YUMA........78 SET IN 2013 MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING... COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH. AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. MANY OF THE SITES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR IN DRY ENOUGH AIR TO KEEP THE FOG AT BAY WHILE LOCATIONS LIKE LOZ AND SME WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SEE THE DENSE FOG IMPACT THEIR SITE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT...MVFR...FOG JUST TOWARD DAWN AT THE OTHERS...BUT LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR OR VLIFR FOG THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. LEADING INTO THE FOG SETTING UP AT THOSE STATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ALL THE FOG CLEARS BY 14Z WITH SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
147 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MAINE LATER THIS EVENING...SPREADING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW INLAND. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE...REALLY CUT BACK SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS UPDATE WITH DRY SLOT ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK FURTHER NORTH...LEAVING BEST FORCING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. ALL MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HRRR ALSO SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIP FALLING WELL TO THE NORTH AND IN CARIBOU`S FORECAST AREA. WILL BE DROPPING MOST HEADLINES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE WITH EXCEPTION OF MOST NORTHERN ZONES. 02Z UPDATE...ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING SULLIVAN...BELKNAP... MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES WHICH EXPIRES AT 10 PM. SURFACE OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS AREA AND STEADIER PRECIP HAS NOW MOVED EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STEADIER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST MAINE AND EXPECT THIS THIS AREA TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE COAST. 17Z GYX SOUNDING REVEALED THAT ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE OVERLY WARM THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COLD AIR DAMMING TREND WILL KEEP A LITTLE MORE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVAPORATION COOLING CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINT VALUES STILL IN THE 20S MANY AREAS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OF MAINE EXCEPT YORK COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE PERIOD 03Z-06Z. THEREFORE...AT THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... ALL MODELS WRAP SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW BACK INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE COAST SUNDAY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE...LESS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THEREFORE...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW WIND CHILLS AND RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT OVERALL IMPACT LIKELY THE SAME FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS COULD INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IF LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST... THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS WHILE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK THE AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN BY FRIDAY. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ALL THE DETAILS WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING... STRENGTH... AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW AFFECT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST NOTABLE DISCREPANCY EXISTS ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF TRACKS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE AT ALL. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG IN THE BAYS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT. LONG TERM...OFFSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST UP TO GALE FORCE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018-019-024>027. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ003-005-006. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001- 002-004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925 THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO CROSSING NRN ONTARIO. TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT. SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT 12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL NORTH. A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO -17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER EXIST. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 PASSING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR WX TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER... KIWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS. SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED AT KCMX. SO...LLWS MAY OCCUR THERE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE...WITH SOME DEEPER MIXING...KSAW AND KIWD WILL SEE GUSTS AOA 25KT IN THE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI PRES MOVES CLOSER. OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY. THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE. THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX. THE DAILY DETAILS... MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME. POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS: GRI: 83 IN 2012 HSI: 84 IN 1935 FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS. MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND. WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR G45 MPH. TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL. TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX. WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU. WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA? THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN THE 40S. KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE BIG ISSUE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING HOURS BEFORE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND THIS SHEAR IS PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE GROUND. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FOR SUNDAY...THE WIND SHEAR ISSUE SHOULD DECREASE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY. A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER. FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY. LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH 700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT 20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12 SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER /700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND 208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM NEEDED THE WARNING. ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY CHANGES. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210-219. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-208. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BROOKS SHORT TERM...BROOKS LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CLB FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS SHRA OF RAIN OR SNOW DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS VERSUS THE RUC. THE HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP INITIALIZING WITH FAR MORE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT SO QUESTION THE FORECAST OUTPUT. WILL BACK POPS IN THE SNOWBELT AREA DOWN A LITTLE MORE PER THE RUC. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE NOT LOOKING DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE SW HALF HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS THERE TO FALL MORE THAN NE BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TEMP FALLS IN THE SW HALF WILL SLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES SOME. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERCAST CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE OHIO(AND POSSIBLY TOL) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT ERI OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012-014- 018-019-089. PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN AVIATION...KEC MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD MID 70 TO LOW 80S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID- LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS OF 03Z...VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KFSD WAS APPROACH 40 KTS AT APPROXIMATELY 1500 FT AGL. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 50 KTS AFTER 06Z. THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET NEAR THE SURFACE AND WHEN. DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX...INCREASE IN WINDS AT SURFACE WILL BE SLOWER THAN AND LAG INCREASE ALOFT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX FROM AROUND 06Z THRU MID MORNING. THE DURATION WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND BEGIN TO DECRASE ABOVE 1000 KFT AGL. IT IS POSSIBLE AT KFSD...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE SOONER THAN CURRENT FORECAST BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 13Z. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES IN AND WILL EVEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900. IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301. NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...DUX AVIATION...SCHUMACHER FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
525 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS... THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT. AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT. REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY. COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS. SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. FOR KGLD...THOSE WINDS WILL START RIGHT AWAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. FOR KMCK...THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT START UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS. STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH. FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 RECORDS FOR TODAY GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935 YUMA........81 SET IN 2003 MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935 RECORDS FOR MONDAY GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012 COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013 TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013 HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012 YUMA........78 SET IN 2013 MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029. CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...BULLER FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING... COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH. AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1012 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING... COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH. AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING... COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH. AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE NH/ME STATE LINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS WAS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS HRRR MODEL RUN. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS EVENING...ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PREV DISC... 700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. 520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE 00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND 500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009-013-014. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001- 002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE... FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES. FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MOIST PACIFIC FLOW SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE REGION. HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH AREAS OF QPF TODAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUD BASES ON THE ORDER OF 8-10KFT WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VIRGA OR AT MOST SPRINKLES. WILL KEEP WITH JUST ISOLD POPS OVER OUR WEST AND NORTH...AND SCATTERED OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS. TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR JUST RAIN SHOWERS EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS...12Z 700MB TEMP WAS A WHOPPING +4C UPSTREAM AT BOISE. WE WILL SEE SOME RECORDS FALL AGAIN TODAY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FROM REACHING OUR FULL POTENTIAL WITH HOW WARM THE EXISTING AIRMASS IS. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...DEWPTS ARE 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...A RESULT OF THE GRADUAL MOISTENING UNDERWAY...SO EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY EVEN WITH SIMILAR TEMPS. JKL && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON... A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WAS SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS NOT FALLING MUCH PAST THE 50S. WILL HAVE A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ENTERING WESTERN IDAHO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED HIGHS TODAY DUE TO SUCH A WARM START. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AGAIN TODAY. NEED TO MENTION FIRE WEATHER HERE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WERE NOT GREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LEVELS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF GREAT MOISTENING OVER THE MID LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MOISTENING IS PRESENT BUT NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT. WARMER HIGHS WILL LEAD TO SOME HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE WINDS. MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW SOME GUSTINESS...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT STRONGLY WORD THE FORECAST. WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE STRONG AS GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. MIXING LOOKS DEEPER AT LIVINGSTON TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS NOT AS STRONG. 700MB WINDS DO REACH 50KTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LOCAL STUDIES SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS BEING HIT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HARLOWTON AS LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON OF MIXING HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARNING WINDS THERE...AND THE MIXING WINDOWS LOOKS BRIEF...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONCE ADVERTISED FOR TONIGHT...HAS BEEN SLOWED EVER FURTHER TO BE MORE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER ON KEEPING FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING SOUTHERN MONTANA MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND GEARED IT TO MORE OF A MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND MADE IT VERY LIGHT TOO. BACKED OFF MORE ON POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY FALLING BELOW 0C OVER CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY AS GUIDANCE WAS MUCH WARMER. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW AS IT WOULD BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MORE THAN ANYTHING. WILL DROP THE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HWO AND WEATHER STORY. TWH .LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT... A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WENDESDAY BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT...AT THIS TIME...NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER ON SATURDAY WITH THE GFS KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOOLEY && .AVIATION... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW MORE SUN BREAKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS INVOF KLVM. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS 35 TO 45KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 55KTS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BORSUM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 075 044/050 030/053 036/052 034/055 034/062 035/066 1/N 24/W 52/W 22/W 31/B 11/U 11/B LVM 071 047/058 032/056 038/056 033/056 033/062 034/068 4/W 34/W 42/W 23/W 31/B 11/B 21/B HDN 078 043/051 030/055 032/054 032/059 031/063 033/066 1/N 24/W 52/W 22/W 31/B 11/B 11/B MLS 076 041/047 027/047 034/053 031/054 030/059 031/061 1/E 35/W 22/W 22/W 21/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 078 042/057 028/049 032/056 031/055 030/059 031/062 0/E 13/W 42/W 22/W 32/W 11/B 11/B BHK 075 038/045 022/044 029/050 029/051 025/055 028/054 0/B 24/W 21/E 22/W 21/B 11/B 11/B SHR 077 043/057 031/056 035/055 032/053 029/058 034/064 1/N 13/W 42/W 22/W 43/W 10/U 01/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY. A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH CLEARING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
542 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY. THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE. THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX. THE DAILY DETAILS... MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME. POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS: GRI: 83 IN 2012 HSI: 84 IN 1935 FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS. MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND. WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR G45 MPH. TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL. TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX. WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU. WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA? THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN THE 40S. KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. WE SHOULD HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING UNTIL WIND INCREASES AT GROUND LEVEL. THESE ISSUES RETURN THIS EVENING AS WE DECOUPLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY. FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...HEINLEIN FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
621 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD MID 70 TO LOW 80S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID- LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH MID MORNING IN VALLEYS WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...AS CURRENTLY SEEING A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900. IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301. NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...DUX AVIATION...CHENARD FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. && .DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS. /ALLEN/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/ AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000 TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50. MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA. THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. TONIGHTS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RAIN EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 70 58 76 / - 10 20 20 40 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 52 70 57 76 / - 10 20 20 40 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 53 71 58 76 / 10 10 20 20 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 50 69 57 73 / - 10 10 10 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 54 69 57 71 / - - 10 30 50 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 70 58 75 / - 10 10 20 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 54 71 58 74 / 10 10 20 20 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 72 58 76 / - 10 20 20 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 54 71 59 77 / - 10 30 20 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 54 71 59 75 / 10 10 20 20 60 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 71 58 75 / 10 10 20 20 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1205 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE...AVIATION ROTORS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING BOTH KRNO/KMMH WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN NEAR AS STRONG AS SOME NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, BOTH AT THE VALLEY FLOOR LEVEL AND IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE HRRR RUNS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWED WINDS NOT REACHING CURRENT TAF FORECAST LEVELS, KEEPING STRONGEST WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BEFORE ANY DECISION TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS MADE. THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS STRONG AND WINDS COULD QUICKLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND MIXING INCREASES. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE FROM SMALLER AIRCRAFT IN THE VICINITY OF KRNO AS WINDS WERE MUCH STRONGER AT RIDGE LEVEL AND LEE MT WAVE ACTIVITY WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN CLOUD FORMATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. SO IT IS GOING TO BE A BUMPY RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOHMANN && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AND START ADVISORIES A LITTLE EARLY. A FEW SPOTS WERE ALREADY HITTING 50 MPH AND THE WINDS AROUND PYRAMID LAKE WERE STARTING TO INCREASE AS AS WELL. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ITSELF AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AND BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGEST GRADIENTS AND MIXING OVERLAP. UPDATES ISSUED. HOHMANN SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL AREAS TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. AS THROUGH WEAKENS, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTHERN LASSEN THROUGH VERY NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM... AS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE CONTINUED TRIMMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK; ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LEFT TODAY IN VERY NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO DAMPEN WIND SPEEDS FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS AND THE SIERRA FRONT FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY 60 MPH AT 700MB WITH A ISOTHERMAL TO WEAKLY STABLE LAYER AROUND THE PEAK. THIS CORRELATES TO A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND MID- LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SIGNATURES ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT CONSIDERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S, MIXING ALONE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE GUSTS INTO THE 40-45MPH RANGE. BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEVADA INTERIOR DROPPING DOWN TO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK. EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITY FOR SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 1-3 MILES. WINDS TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE REGION. GENERAL TROUGHINESS SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE LIFTING JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY, STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE SIERRA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM UPPER LEVEL COOLING. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION ABOVE 25% FOR THE SIERRA FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY TUESDAY EVENING WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. SOME WEAK CAPE IS SHOWING UP, BUT IT IS LESS THAN 50 J/KG WHILE SHOWING A LOWERING TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED, WEAKLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM ARISING OUT OF SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT REPRESENTS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOYD LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW/BAGGY TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE WITH THE EC NOW DRIER THAN THE GFS. THIS LOW WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT THE FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WITH MILD TEMPS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH IT, WE ARE EXPECTING MORE DIURNAL, I.E. AFTERNOON/EVENING, SHOWERS WITH IT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. HAVE DRIED THINGS OUT NORTH OF 80 EXCEPT TOWARD LASSEN PEAK IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH THE INSTABILITY. THIS LOW PULLS AWAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR LATE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT CA/NV NORTH OF I-80 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH FOCUS IN THE ENSEMBLES NORTH OF I-80 HAVE TRENDED POPS MORE THERE, BUT DID LEAVE IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MINERAL COUNTY. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NV AND NEAR 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THIS MORNING. WALLMANN AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS TODAY WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS 25-40 KTS STRONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS GUSTING TO 65 KTS TAHOE BASIN AND LOWER NEAR KMMH. EXPECT SOME ROTORS AND MTN WAVE TURBULENCE BUT LLWS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. GOOD MIXING AND A MORE UNIFORM LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MTN WAVES WEAK NEAR THE SURFACE. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LCL MVFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCN NORTH OF KSVE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002-003-005. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004. CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070>072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to 20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70 which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight. As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location. Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it a warning. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south. Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s. For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts of moisture to the region. The best chance will be likely be on Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft. However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general showers. Then we do start to become a little more active into the late Sunday time frame. During this time, the upper level pattern begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise. However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of any associated low or good forcing. Temperatures do still look to be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by Saturday. Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast for all terminal sites with no more than scattered cirrus. Gusty southwest winds of 15 to 24 kts will decrease to 6-9 kts aft 01Z/16 before increasing again to 10-20 kts after 15z/16. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 to 30 mph...will maintain Red Flag Warning until 8 pm with minimum RH levels at or below 20 percent. Temps fall and RH increases sufficiently by 8 pm to let it expire at that time. Monday is looking similar to today across areas north and west of the I 35 corridor with RH levels falling into the 11-20 percent range in this area as temperatures rise into the lower 80s with similar winds again Monday. Confidence is increasing that the Fire Weather watch may need to be updgraded to a Red Flag warning...but will let the shifts later tonight reevaluate the need following the expiration of the current Red Flag warning in effect this evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-034>039. FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055. && $$ SHORT TERM...63 LONG TERM...Drake/53 AVIATION...63 FIRE WEATHER...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS... THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO. LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW. MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT. AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT. REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW. GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY. COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS. SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH. BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GRADAULLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS. STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH. FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015 RECORDS FOR TODAY GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935 YUMA........81 SET IN 2003 MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935 RECORDS FOR MONDAY GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012 COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013 TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013 HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012 YUMA........78 SET IN 2013 MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081. && $$ SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...FS FIRE WEATHER...BULLER CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING... COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH. AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 BASED ON VIS SAT THERE ARE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MOST AREAS ARE SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER A FOGGY START TO THE DAY. TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT OVER...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SME OR PERHAPS LOZ COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN MOVING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRYING SUNSHINE TODAY...DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT FOG ISSUES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SITES VFR AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1255 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISC... HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS EVENING...ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PREV DISC... 700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. 520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE 00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND 500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009-013-014. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001- 002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY. THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE. THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP. SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX. THE DAILY DETAILS... MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME. POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS: GRI: 83 IN 2012 HSI: 84 IN 1935 FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS. MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND. WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR G45 MPH. TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL. TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX. WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU. WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA? THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN THE 40S. KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SITS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET BUT THE REST OF THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN STARTING ON OR AFTER 03Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY. FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087. KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007- 017>019. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019. && $$ SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN LONG TERM...HALBLAUB AVIATION...EWALD FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY. A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS AT TIMES. THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE SOUTH BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210- 219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CLB SHORT TERM...CLB LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD MID 70 TO LOW 80S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID- LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VFR THROUGH 16/18Z. SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THROUGH 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900. IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...DUX AVIATION... FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015 .AVIATION... MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS BECOMING BKN-OVC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY WILL TEND TO ERODE ON THE FRONT END AND PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR AT KAUS...THOUGH WILL BE MORE OF BKN-SCT CHARACTER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REACH KSAT/KSSF EARLY THIS EVENING BY 16/00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH KAUS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE MENTIONED FOR 16/11Z-16Z. SOME -RA MAY MOVE UP FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AS CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. N TO NE WINDS 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VRBL LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SE 4 TO 7 KTS ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS. /ALLEN/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/ AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000 TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S/50. MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA. THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT`S MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RAIN EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 70 58 76 / - 10 20 20 40 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 52 70 57 76 / - 10 20 20 40 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 53 71 58 76 / 10 10 20 20 50 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 50 69 57 73 / - 10 10 10 40 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 54 69 57 71 / - - 10 30 50 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 70 58 75 / - 10 10 20 40 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 54 71 58 74 / 10 10 20 20 60 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 72 58 76 / - 10 20 20 50 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 54 71 59 77 / - 10 30 20 40 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 54 71 59 75 / 10 10 20 20 60 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 71 58 75 / 10 10 20 20 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30