Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
757 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS FOR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ROUGHLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN TO DAMPEN THE WINDS THERE AND THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THAT AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
WEAK SIGNAL EAST OF THE SIERRA AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY THAT
WOULD SUPPORT SOME DOWN SLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. SO...WE HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN...NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA FROM HIGHWAY 50 NORTHWARD FOR
SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL REPLACE THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ALSO...PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON THIS EVENING IS
NOT EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND FORECAST
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS WILL MOVE ANY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
SO...WILL TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA TONIGHT.
UPDATES OUT SOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA,
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE RUNS PRODUCE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP GENERALLY FROM SUSANVILLE-GERLACH NORTHWARD
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 0.10 INCH. THEREFORE WE
HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES IN THESE AREAS MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
HIGH ELEVATION WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM RENO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. 700 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO 50-55 KT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A STABLE LAYER IS INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN
700-600 MB, WITH WIND SPEEDS NEARLY CONSTANT BETWEEN THE BOTTOM
AND TOP OF THIS LAYER. FOR STRONGER WIND EVENTS WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENTS, THERE WOULD BE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IN
THE UPPER PORTION OF THE STABLE LAYER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH A THICK LAYER
OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD LIMIT GUST
SPEEDS BY A FEW MPH. AT THIS TIME WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY BUT IF THE NEXT GUIDANCE DATA SHOWS SIMILAR WIND
FIELDS AND/OR REDUCED CLOUD COVER, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
EVEN WITHOUT AN ADVISORY, WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
ONGOING VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A NARROW BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND INLAND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CA. THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM CARRY THIS BAND INTO NORTHEAST CA-FAR
NORTHWEST NV, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS BAND WEST OF THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND LASSEN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
THROUGH MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST COULD
PRODUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW AMONG THE GUIDANCE SOURCES, BUT WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET SO TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS. IF THE
MORE ACTIVE SHOWER SCENARIO OCCURS ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL MORE
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOW IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE. IT DOES ORIGINATE OVER THE PACIFIC AND HAS MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN IT, WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT MAINTAIN A MOISTURE TAP AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE A
HUGE PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME AT
THIS POINT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING INSTABILITY BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE 500 LOW AND A VORT MAX, BUT WE WILL
RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE TROUGH EXITS THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY. BY FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW RESULTS
WITH SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER WEAK, BUT COLDER, SYSTEM TO
PUSH INTO THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEAGER MOISTURE
TAP TO WORK WITH, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TYPE EVENT. HAVE EXTENDED THE COVERAGE FOR SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA, AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA, BUT LIMITED CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. DJ
AVIATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING REPORTED EVERYWHERE, BUT PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A KSVE-KLOL LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40
KTS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS WITH UP TO 70 KTS ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES
LEADING TO TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLE ROTOR ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT IN ADDITION TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. LLWS IS UNLIKELY DUE TO SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
AND DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET AGL. DJ
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002-003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY CAZ070>072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS.
COOLING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
VERY WARM WEATHER OCCURRED TODAY...WITH SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD
SETTING A DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 89 AT 1230 PM...REPLACING THE OLD
RECORD OF 87 SET IN 1994. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS WERE 90 OR
91...ESPECIALLY IN ORANGE COUNTY. WINDS CONTINUED TO BE MODERATELY
STRONG ON THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH
NOON-100 PM HOURLY GUSTS STILL LOCALLY IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE WITH
FREMONT CANYON WITH A PEAK OF 57 MPH. HRRR SHOWS WINDS DROPPING
GRADUALLY BETWEEN 200 PM AND 500 PM...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 200 PM.
FAIR VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL OCCUR AGAIN...INCLUDING AT
LINDBERGH FIELD AS ITS RECORDS ARE ONLY 83 AND 80 FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS PEAKING AROUND 18-19 DEG
C...HOTTEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BEING ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER SO-CAL. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND BEGIN THE COOLING
TREND...THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY
DUE TO MORE OF A SEA BREEZE. A MARINE LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME
STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST STARTING AROUND MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...EVEN WITH THE COOLING. AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION IN SO-CAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
132015Z...FEW CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL...BECOMING SCT-BKN AFTER
14/0600 UTC. UNRESTRICTED VIS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THROUGH 14/0000 UTC...NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT OVER MTN
RIDGES...ALONG COASTAL SLOPES...THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS/PASSES AND
INTO THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL RESULT IN STG TO LOCALLY SVR
UDDFS/LLWS AND POSSIBLE ROTORS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. LLWS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR KCRQ...WHILE GUSTY NE SFC WINDS CONTINUE AT KSNA
AND KONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KTRM AND
KPSP SHOULD GENERALLY BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING AND TURNING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UDDFS/LLWS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 14/0000 UTC.
&&
.MARINE...
115 PM...SOME NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
630 PM UPDATE...RADAR RETURNS ALREADY MOVING IN TO CENTRAL PA AND
NORTHERN MD. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST RAP, HAVE BEGAN POPS
ACROSS THE REGION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT HOW MUCH
PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND, DEW POINTS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE HELP OF ON SHORE FLOW.
THEREFORE, DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR VERY
LONG, AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FALL LINE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START
TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS
USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS
WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER.
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z
SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF
TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB
TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY
TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO
THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE,
WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY
QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH
RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH
AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST
AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE
MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. RAIN COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KILG AND KRDG AS EARLY AS 00Z,
BEFORE SPREADING NE. BY 06Z RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME STEADIER WITH
SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFR FROM
12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER
18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A
HOUR OR TWO GOING FORWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS,
GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE
CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE
AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND
OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST
ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE
WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER.
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z
SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF
TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB
TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY
TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO
THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE,
WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY
QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH
RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH
AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST
AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE
MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO
MVFR AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. BY 09Z RAIN LOOKS TO
BECOME STEADIER WITH SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS
SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
LIFR FROM 12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A HOUR
OR TWO GOING FORWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS,
GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE
CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE
AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BRIEFLY INTO OUR REGION MONDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12:30 PM UPDATE: LOWERED DEWPOINTS A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS A
DRY AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART.
HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED BY 1-2 DEGREES
TODAY. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE SLOW TO BRING INTO THE REGION, LIKELY
DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO THIS UPDATE PUSHES THE INTRODUCTION OF
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST TO LATER THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH NOON THEN INCREASING AND SLOWLY LOWERING
CIRRUS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50 THIS AFTERNOON AND A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER INLAND THAN THURSDAY AND CERTAINLY MUCH
COOLER ALONG THE COAST WHERE CHILLING SEABREEZES FROM THE RECENTLY
DEICED OCEAN WATERS DROPS AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. SSTS GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND EARLY TODAY HAS LIMITED PREDAWN RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PRIMARILY NW NJ AND NE PA (N OF I-78). THIS WIND WILL BECOME
S-SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5
AM. RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR AND AFTER 5 AM ACROSS THE
DELMARVA/SE PA AND FAR SW NJ AS A WLY 7H JET OF 55KT DEVELOPS BY
12Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA WITH A WSW 50 KT JET NOSED INTO THE
DELMARVA AND A SW 925MB JET OF 45-50 KT ALSO NOSED INTO THE
DELMARVA. SO ITS A DECENT INSTABILITY BURST BUT NO THUNDER. A SMALL
CHC OF ICING VCNTY HIGH POINT NJ AND KMPO AT THE ONSET IN THE 2A-5A
TIME FRAME AND IN THE HWO ONLY. THE SFC WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY SHOULD BE STRETCHED FROM NEAR KSBY TO NEAR KDCA TO NEAR
KEKN (FAR S DE TO WASHINGTON DC AND NRN W.VA). NEAR 100 POP BY 10Z
/13. SOME WARMER DEWPOINT CONTACT DEVELOPED DENSE FOG ON COLDER
ELEVATED SFC`S NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY (1/4 MI POCONOS WITH 1-2 MI
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE). LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIFT OUT MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD
AMPLIFY SOME INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN TENDS TO
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS IS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
FOR SATURDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS FEATURE AND ALSO A SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
HELP PULL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE SURGE
LOOKS TO PEAK DURING SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE THE COMBINED LIFT CAN
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
WITH WAA, THE THERMAL PROFILE IS ANTICIPATED TO NOT SUPPORT
SNOW/SLEET AT THE ONSET UP NORTH. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE POCONOS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER, WAA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HALT OR REVERSE THE EARLIER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE,
WE CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING AND A RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE CWA.
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MOST NOTABLE WHERE SNOW COVER REMAINS.
A SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR WEST SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST
AT NIGHT, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
INITIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM SECTOR MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY /ESPECIALLY FROM THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST/. THE SHOWERS THEN END IN
THE EVENING AS SOME DRYING WORKS IN. OVERALL, THE TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO
BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA WITH NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY, THEN THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST, COLDER AIR ALOFT COMBINED
WITH ENOUGH HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS LIKE LESS OF A CHC NOW AS
THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT TRACKS FARTHER TO OUR NORTH. WE MAINTAINED
SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR NOW. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR
AREA. AS SOME COOLING TAKES PLACE, WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR AWHILE AND THEREFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. WE
DID BOOST THE WINDS SOME FOR A TIME SUNDAY. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS SOME MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST AND THIS WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLING, AND THE FASTER FLOW WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A QUICK MOVER WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE, HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT.
FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
CLEARING OUR AREA TO START TUESDAY, THEN WE ARE LEFT WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, HOWEVER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD RESULT IN
A COLDER REGIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 25000. LIGHT NE WIND.
AFTER 12Z...SCT CIRRUS AOA 25000 FT LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT NE WIND BECOMING S-
SE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR CIGS TO START BECOMING IFR OR LIFR IN RAIN/STRATUS/FOG
EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND. PLS SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS.
SLIGHTEST CHC OF A FEW ICE PELLETS AT THE START VCNTY KRDG AND KABE
AROUND 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME FOG, THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND END IN THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR CEILING AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS AOB 4 FT. N WIND 10-15
KT BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
THE WIND MAINLY STAYS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER ON SUNDAY,
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY OCCUR NEARSHORE ALTHOUGH LESS MIXING MAY
RESULT OVER THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROBABLY STILL MILD
ENOUGH. THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY WILL IMPACT
HOW QUICKLY THE SEAS BUILD. AS OF NOW, KEPT IT MARGINAL AND
THEREFORE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH BETTER MIXING, THEREFORE GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWEST AND HELPING TO
DRAW UP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, THE FLOW VEERS TO WESTERLY FROM
ABOUT 700 MB ON UP. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOWER QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, PLUS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE
AIMED MORE TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY. OVERALL, THE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE
THE 6-HOUR FFG HAS SOME SPOTS /BASICALLY ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
INTERSTATE 95/ AROUND OR UNDER AN INCH, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING TIMES
OF HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW SMALLER FAST RESPONDING STREAMS
GETTING TO MINOR FLOOD, THE THREAT LOOKS LOCALIZED ENOUGH AND
THEREFORE NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM /NOTE, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ATTM/.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1206 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR. THIS
SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO
UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG
AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF. LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT AFTER 05Z. SO WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT
BRIEF MVFR/FOG AT OGB LATE TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
722 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX
OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL
WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT SATURDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL.
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECREASING
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WARM
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY
BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE INFLUX
OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PWAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE MID
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR TODAY
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
RETAINED FOR TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL
WEAKEN AND EXIT THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IN EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
OF MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5...AND PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON SATURDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER AREAS SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
SATURDAY WILL FURTHER WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND DECREASING MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE WEDGE RETREATS SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WE KEPT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWN-SLOPING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
248 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE RIDES OVER A DEVELOPING WEDGE. WITH THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY RAIN CHANCES WILL FURTHER INCREASE
WILL COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDGE OF COOLER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
NE...RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE OVER
OUR FA. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT PATCHY AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES BETTER PRECIP
COVERAGE TO OUR W/SW WHERE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RESIDES.
UPPER IMPULSE TO MOVE TO THE NE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST GRADUALLY
INCREASING LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY W
FA/CSRA...SPREADING E/NE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEDGE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN/DEVELOP AS LIGHT RAIN
COMMENCES. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DID RAISE THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO AND ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THEY ARE
RUNNING LOWER THAN FORECAST. TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BLANKET THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN CONTINUING ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY TO BE AROUND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS. ON SATURDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-20. RAINFALL AMOUNT ON
SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE AROUND A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH...HOWEVER
AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE A QUICK INCH FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BEING IMPROVING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY FROM
JUST UNDER AN INCH SUNDAY MORNING TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. A TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND PROVIDES A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITH MILD AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT
OFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA WED/THU
WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RESIDING AT ALL TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW/COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
DEVELOPING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REMAIN VFR...BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONDITIONS AS MORNING APPROACHES FROM SW TO
NE. HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT /LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
WIDESPREAD IFR FORECAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEDGE STRENGTHENS
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SREF/LAMP
GUIDANCE. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY DUE TO WEDGE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIORT TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING WITH COLD
FRONT AND LASING THROUGH TOMORROW.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* LOW IN IFR CIGS REACHING ORD THIS EVENING...MEDIUM-LOW ON
REACHING MDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
331 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
225 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
313 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY.
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH
LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE.
THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS
LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE
50S.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN
FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND
EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN
LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE.
STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL
ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID
60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
313 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH PRECIP/SKY TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY.
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SOLID MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS PUSHED OVER MOST OF THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH
LATEST IR IMAGERY DEPICTING A RATHER DENSE CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE.
THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN STEADILY APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REACH THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS PRECIP WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS IN THIS
LOCATION BUT DID BRING IN THEM IN EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THE BULK OF ANY PREVAILING RAIN TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...DID KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY SHORTER DURATION RAIN. FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA...PARTLY SUNNY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
MAKE WAY FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING HIGHS FOR TODAY WITH 60S STILL APPEARING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS CONFINED IN THE
50S.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TONIGHT...WHILE THE FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A WIND SHIFT WITH
THIS FRONT...BUT WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
225 AM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONGWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGER PLAYER IN THE PATTERN
FOR THE MEDIUM TERM...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING OVERHEAD SAT AND
EXPANDING SUN. THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
50S...AND WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TURNING AN AFTN
LAKE BREEZE SAT AFTN...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD HOLD IN THE
LOW/MID 40S. SUN THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED SE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING S/SW FLOW TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 50S. IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE THE LAKESHORE COULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER WITH A LAKE BREEZE.
STRONGER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ARRIVES MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LONGWAVE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL
ORIENTATION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO WISC MON...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST. MON COULD SEE TEMPS EASILY IN THE LOW/MID
60S...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... ENSEMBLES RETURN THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST STRETCHING NORTH INTO WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA TUE/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO COOL
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDS BY TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHUD PUSH BACK INTO THE UPR
40S/LOW 50S FOR WED/THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CIGS LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE
* SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
KMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
SW WIND IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND LOW CIGS ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS...BUT RAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGS AND HINTS FROM SOME OTHER HIGH RESOULTION GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINT POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GET IN
OUR AREA. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KMDW AND
KGYY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT
TO KORD AND KDPA AS WELL. IF THEY DO FORM...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
VFR DECK BUT LARGELY IT WILL BE AN LIFR DECK. THEREFORE BEGAN TO
HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ORD/DPA TAFS AND INCLUDED A CIG AT
KMDW AND KGYY. THE RAP IS CURRENTLY TOO FAST WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUDS...SO WE BACKED OFF ON ITS TIMING A BIT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW ON LOW CIGS DEVELOPMENT AT KORD TONIGHT...MEDIUM ON GETTING
TO KMDW. HIGH THAT IF IT FORMS IT WILL BE LIFR.
* HIGH ON WIND TRENDS
KMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
225 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE WAS SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SECTIONS GUSTING UP TO 30KT BEFORE THIS AFTN...THEN BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT QUICKLY
WEAKENS...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT MON
LATE AFTN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
JAMES BAY MONDAY...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEN ANOTHER BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOG IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BURNED OFF TODAY LEADING TO
NEAR UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF US HAS ADVECTED NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.
NO REAL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BUMPING UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SAT. THE REST OF TODAY A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE NORTH AND
AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY ONE MODEL SUGGESTS MVFR VSBYS
IN THE AM...BUT DO NOT THINK IT IS ACCURATE AS THE MODEL STILL
THINKS THERE IS SNOW AROUND. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FROPA.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 18Z/13. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/14.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AN INVERTED TROF RAN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE
IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST HANCOCK AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES. RAP TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THROUGH
SUNRISE IN THIS AREA WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
MCDONOUGH COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY INTO TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
WARMER START AND EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TURNING COOLER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WARMING TREND FROM WIDESPREAD 50S SATURDAY
TO 60S SUNDAY... WITH DRYING BL AND AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE ONLY
FLY IN OINTMENT COMES SATURDAY WHEN LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. LOWS COOLEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY 30S... AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S IN
DRAINAGE OR LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH. SEASONABLY MILD LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MONDAY...STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HIGHS. GEM/SREF/NAM IN MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AM AND EARLIER ONSET OF CAA FOR COOLER
HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S... WHILE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY PM SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR MANY WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRYING BL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT COOLER BUT NOT
COLD. ST PATRICKS DAY LOOKS TO BE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME MODIFICATION OF TEMPS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW MVFR VSBYS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. AFT SUNRISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT
TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S
UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD
SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS
GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM
AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z
TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING
TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F
COOLER.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGERING, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE 10-18 KT THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
230 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A CONVOLUTED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. A LOW PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION CREEPING NORTHWARD
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY AND POPS WILL CONTINUE
AT ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN. THE NEXT QUESTION WAS
TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE HRRR IS WARMER THAN THIS, BUT DECIDED NOT
TO USE THIS SINCE WE AREN`T IN A DOWNSLOPE WIND PATTERN (IN FACT, IT`S
UPSLOPE). THERE ALSO COULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD
SLIGHTLY IMPACT THE DIURNAL MAX. IN RELATED NEWS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOOK LESS LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER AFTERNOON RH`S MINIMUMS. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CROSSES KANSAS. BASED ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY THE HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AND BASED ON THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST THE FAVOR THE WARMER MET FOR LOWS
GIVEN THAT A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE TEMPERATURE TREND IN THE 925MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
WARMING TREND CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FIRE DANGER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY BASED ON THE
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT A WEDGE OF WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT, AND BY 00Z TUESDAY THIS AXIS OF WARM
AIR IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON
THESE 00Z MONDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS COLDER AIR MOVES BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS SMALL GIVEN THAT THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA.
TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE GIVEN THAT GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOWING THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL 12C TO 18C BETWEEN 00Z
TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF RANGED FROM 12C TO 16C. AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT, HOWEVER IF THE LATEST COOLING
TREND REMAINS UNCHANGED THEN HIGHS MAY END UP BEING 10F TO 15F
COOLER.
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE GFS BRING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON WHICH MODEL IS
MORE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN THE
LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 MID WEEK. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE THAT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEK
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO FURTHER REDUCTIONS OF CIG IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS INCREASE 20-30 KT OUT OF THE NNE TODAY AS THERE
WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURE AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BACK TO 15 TO NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 70 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 71 37 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 72 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QFP VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
142 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN
THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
RAIN HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY THOUGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STEADY RAINFALL AT SYM. HOWEVER...RECENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN BEGINNING TO FILL IN BACK TO THE WEST.
IN ADDITION...LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS
EASTERN KY BY 21Z. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED CIGS TO ALTERNATE MINS
AT JKL AND SME... AND LOWERED LOZ/SJS/SYM TO IFR CONDITIONS BY
21Z. AT THAT POINT...RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN INTERMITTENT
RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF THE
TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT SYM ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN
THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT
BE NEEDED. SENT THE UPDATED GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH
THE CURRENT OBS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN STEADY AND ROUGHLY UNIFORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THOUGH BASED...ON CURRENT QPF VALUES...FLOODING LOOKS
LIKE A LESS AND LESS LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THOUGH MUCH OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIP IS YET TO COME...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH. AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME HANG UP WILL OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE AND SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...BUMPED UP WINDS AND
GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER GIVEN THE REPORTS OUT OF THE MESONET SITE AT DORTON.
ALSO...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE LOWER CIGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH SOME MVFR
VIS POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE
POOR AVN CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS MOST PLACES AND FOR MOST OF
THE TIME...THOUGH SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY APPROACH 20 KTS AT
THE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER WINDS EXIST OFF THE SFC AS
SEEN IN THE JKL VWP AND THE LATEST OBS OUT OF DORTON...FOR THIS
HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE HOURS OF LLWS AT JKL AND KSJS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING MOISTURE AND ITS WARM FRONT
INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE THE RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY...DEWPOINTS AROUND 40...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
AND ARE LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND. ATTM THE MORE SUSTAINED RAIN
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER BUT IT IS SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
KENTUCKY...BUT EVEN THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL RIDGE
TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT FROM DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE NIGHT
AND THIS WILL LIKELY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
ACCORDINGLY...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LATER THE OHIO VALLEY AMID SPLIT FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL BRING ENERGY INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH 00Z BEFORE IT GETS
PICKED UP BY A SOUTHEAST MOVING TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXIT OF THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE WITH A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR FOR
DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WET 48 HOURS THROUGH THE
BLUEGRASS AS SHOWERS SPREAD OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP
THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN RAIN AXIS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THIS AXIS TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AXIS SETTING UP TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
THE FFA FOR THIS AREA. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS
TONIGHT AS EVEN WITHOUT THE RAIN THE DAMP AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIST AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DID MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR SOME LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SKY HIGH MOS VALUES FOR THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE AREAL QPF FIELD...AS
DEPICTED IN THE HRRR AND NAM12 TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY FEW
DIFFERENCES. IN FACT...NOT USED TO SEEING SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AS IT STANDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ON THE
WAY OUT BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN
FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE FACT WE WILL BE POST
FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE LOWER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRASHING TO UNDER 25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND COULD
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. MORE CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN TO AROUND
60 FOR TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT PER THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS. DID ALSO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
THROUGH DAWN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
GUIDANCE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
JUST SENT OUT AND UPDATED SET OF ZONES. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...NAM12...HRRR...AND GFS...ALL HAS PUSHED PRECIPITATION ONSET
BACK BY A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...WHICH ARE INDICATING ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND BACK OFF ON
PRECIP ONSET ACROSS OUR AREA BY A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEATHER
TYPE...QPF...HOURLY POP AND POP12. ALSO INCREASED TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IN HOURLY TEMPS AND THE LATER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY UNDER
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. MOISTURE HAS ALSO
BEEN INCREASING DUE TO STRONG LOW-TO-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PULLING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND ONSET
OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH NOW LOOKS LIKE TO BE AROUND
12Z FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS...SAVE
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS...ARE STILL PAINTING THE HIGHEST QPF
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...BRUSHING OUR FAR NW COUNTIES AND POINTS TO
OUR WEST. THE LATEST GFS HAS COME IN WITH HIGH QPF ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE AND IS AN OBVIOUS OUTLIER...SO PUT LESS TRUST INTO
THIS MODEL.
AS FAR AS FLOODING CONCERNS...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LATER ONSET OF
THE PRECIP...IT GIVES EASTERN KY MORE TIME TO DRY OUT.
HIGHEST QPF IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE WILL BE OVER OUR NW
CWA...WITH 1-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE SATURATED NATURE OF THE
GROUND...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL TURN INTO RUNOFF...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG
CREEKS AND RIVERS WHICH ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE A
FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING RUNNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN ACTIVE AND
MOIST PATTERN IN PLACE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH ONGOING RAINFALL
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE
TO THIS...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
THOUGH WITH RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER A LONGER DURATION...WILL SEE
A LESSER THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS
INHERITED FROM THE SUPER BLEND. AFTERWARD...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING IN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SINCE THE SUPER BLEND HAD THIS FOR TUESDAY. AFTER THIS
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS AND WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS ID LOW. OTHERWISE...WARM AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SEEM TO BE HERE TO STAY AS THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THE LOWER CIGS AND
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...WITH MVFR VIS
POSSIBLE. BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z...THE RAIN SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. THESE POOR AVN
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT ALL FIVE AIRPORTS AS...EVEN BETWEEN THE
INTERMITTENT RAINS...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1018 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE: SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST WERE
LOWERED A TAD FROM THE AFTN FCST UPDATE DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN
A BRIEF CHG OVR TO RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS
PTN OF THE FA LATE TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG
RESULTS IN MAX SN TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN.
WE ALSO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO
FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MESO-
MODELS AND LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS UNLIKE THE 18Z
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BROAD WITH THERE
DEPICTED DEFORMATION BANDING...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR
CNTRL TO PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN
MORN INTO SUN MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO
SE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT
TOWARD LOWER SNFL ALSO AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS
SHOWN BY THE AVG OF THE TOP 10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV
OF ST LOUIS ON LINE ANALOG PAGE IN ADDITION TO PAST CLIMATOLOGY OF
SFC LOWS TRACKING ENE FROM THE MID NEW COAST TO JUST S OF NOVA
SCOTIA.
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR
REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE
START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT
FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON
XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER
AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO
THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A
POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE
COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS.
THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS
ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT
LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW
BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE
VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS
OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY
MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR
TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR
BY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING
WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD
ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CN
CLIMATE...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
956 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST WERE
LOWERED A TAD FROM THE AFTN FCST UPDATE DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN
A BRIEF CHG OVR TO RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS
PTN OF THE FA LATE TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG
RESULTS IN MAX SN TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE
PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN. WE ALSO
SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO FAR NRN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MESO-MODELS AND
LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT. THESE MODELS UNLIKE THE 18Z SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR CNTRL TO PERHAPS
REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN INTO SUN
MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO SE ACROSS THE
FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT TOWARD LOWER
SNFL ALSO AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS SHOWN BY THE AVG
OF THE TOP 10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ON
LINE ANALOG PAGE IN ADDITION TO PAST CLIMATOLOGY OF SFC LOWS
TRACKING ENE FROM THE MID NEW COAST TO JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA.
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR
REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE
START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT
FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON
XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED
ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER
AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO
THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A
POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE
COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS.
THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS
ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT
LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW
BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE
VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS
OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY
MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR
TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR
BY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING
WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD
ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
838 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHGS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE DROPPING SN TOTALS ALG THE IMMEDIATE
DOWNEAST COAST A TAD DUE TO MIXING WITH OR EVEN A BRIEF CHG OVR TO
RN TNGT...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA LATE
TNGT FOR PRECIP TO GO BACK TO ALL SN. THIS CHG RESULTS IN MAX SN
TOTALS TO BE OVR CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
SN AND POTENTIALLY THE BEST BANDING WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RESIDENCE
TM LATE TNGT INTO THE ERLY AFTN SUN. WE ALSO SHOW A SHARPER
GRADIENT TO LOWER SN TOTALS FROM CNTRL TO FAR NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
AS PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MESO-MODELS...WHICH UNLIKE THE 18Z
SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS...SHOW THE BEST BANDING TO OCCUR OVR CNTRL
TO PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR N AS N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN
INTO SIN MIDDAY BEFORE THE BANDING AND STEADY SN EXIT NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. THIS SHAPER NRN GRADIENT ALSO
AGREES WITH THE DEPICTION OF SN TOTALS SHOWN BY THE AVG OF THE TOP
10+ PAST SIMILAR EVENTS FROM THE UNIV OF ST LOUIS ON LINE ANALOG
PAGE.
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SNFL SLATED BY THE LATEST HRRR SIM RADAR
REF MODEL DATE FOR NW AND NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY...WE MOVED BACK THE
START TIME OF THE WNTR WX ADV HERE TO MDNGT. ALSO...BASED ON INPUT
FROM THE DAY CREW...WE ADDED PATCHY BLSN TO SNFL ON SUN BASED ON
XPCTD BRISK NE TO N WINDS. LASTLY...WE UPDATED HRLY FCST TEMPS
THRU THE OVRNGT TO UNCHGD FCST LOWS ATTM BASED ON ERLY EVE OBSVD
TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SNOW WHICH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED BACK INTO
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND WITH LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND. THE EXACT LOCATION WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OCCURS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND. THE LEAST SNOW WITH THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH WARMER
AIR COULD REACH DOWNEAST AREAS TO ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WAS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH...TO
THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM A
POSITION SOUTH OF YARMOUTH NS TOWARDS A POSITION SOUTH OF HALIFAX.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...TROWAL SNOW WILL WEAKEN AND END FOR THE
COASTAL DOWN EAST REGION. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER WHERE READINGS NEAR ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH BRISK NNW WINDS.
THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON MONDAY
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS CIRRUS INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW 40F READINGS
ARE LIKELY IN THE BANGOR AREA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT
LATER IN THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A SURFACE LOW IN NEW
BRUNSWICK WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT COULD BE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
RISK THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND RESULTANT LOW MAY BE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...THE MID-WEEK PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE COLD AND WINDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL START ON
TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE BOTH BLOWING SNOW AND SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS. ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON...CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MEETING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DEEPER MIXING LEVELS WITH MID-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PRODUCE
VERY GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE PERIODS
OF INSTABILITY AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE FINALLY
MOVES EAST AND BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THURSDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A VERY BREEZY
DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A GOOD SET UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH MORE SUBZERO READINGS BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE THREAT OF MORE SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM BHB THIS
EVENING...ARRIVING LAST AROUND CAR/PQI TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THE IFR
TEMPO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY FOR
ALL TERMINALS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AT FVE TOWARDS MIDDAY
SUNDAY AND THE DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HUL AND BGR
BY EVENING.
SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL EXIT BHB AND DOWN EAST
LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE VFR FROM LATER SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER
WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONDITION. TEMPORARY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
HUL. STRONG NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EACH AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW/RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL
BE REPLACED BY AN SCA INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUOUS SCA
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LOW END GALE WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING
WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD
ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
747 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID MARCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH.
A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD
INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO
-17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE
ICE COVER EXIST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A
RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX AND IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO
VFR AT KSAW BY LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SUN...LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY
FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES SHIFTS TO THE SE...PRES
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABOVE AN
INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC LYR...KIWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE
MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS. KSAW
AND KIWD WILL SEE GUSTS AOA 25KT IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. STRONG RETURN FLOW
WILL SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT AND A VERY WARM AND BREEZY
DAY FOR SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
FOR TONIGHT...ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO BRING SOME REGIONAL-GEM
NUMBERS INTO THE LOWS TONIGHT TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SOME OUT
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT BETTER IN THE WEST. FOR SATURDAY...WE ARE
EXPECTING FULL SUNSHINE. SINCE THIS WARMUP HAS STARTED...CLEAR DAYS
HAVE YEILDED HIGHS AT OR EVEN ABOVE THE TOP END OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM...SO BOOSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FOR TOMORROW...GETTING
THEM MORE IN LINE WITH A BIAS CORRECTED MODEL BLEND...WHICH IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE SPECTRUM.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MN...WITH LOWS IN WI
LIKELY BEING REACHED AROUND 6Z BEFORE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST HOLD
STEADY. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A 925-850 MB THERMAL RIDGE
WORK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS IN THIS LAYER MORE THAN SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF MN SOUTH OF I-94...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
THURSDAY...BUT LIKE WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY...THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR
SUNDAY IS WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUD COVER
BE. WE WILL SEE THE UPPER JET MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY AS THEY ROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM SOCAL UP TOWARD
THE NEB PANHANDLE...BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN SOME DEGREE
OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL IT IMPACT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT TRICK...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NODAK WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE POOL OUT
AHEAD OF IT TO SEE DEWPOINTS UP IN THE 40S...BUT THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF
ALL SHOW A TONGUE OF MUCH DRIER AIR COMING OUT AHEAD OF THIS
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN POSSIBLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY WE MIX. DID NOT
TAKE DEWPOINTS THAT LOW...BUT CURRENT FORECAST DOES HAVE DEWPOINTS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN REMAINING IN THE LOW 30S...WHICH COMBINED WITH
TEMPS NEAR 70 RESULTS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT. WIND
DIRECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SW DIRECTION FOR
GETTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA /AS OPPOSED TO THE SSE WINDS
WE SAW THURSDAY/...SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT DEWPOINTS GETTING LOWER.
THOUGH HUMIDITIES MAY BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...WINDS
LOOK TO BE AN ABSOLUTE SLAM DUNK. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS
AT FRM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. BOTH SHOW A DEEP /FOR MARCH/ AND DRY
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TOP OF THE MIX CHANNEL WINDS IN
THE LOW 40 KTS...WITH MID CHANNEL WINDS IN THE MID 30S. WAA SW
WINDS TEND TO NOT REACH TOP OF THE CHANNEL LEVELS...BUT CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MORE THAN SUPPORT SEEING SW WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE COMBINED PROBABILITY FOR
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 30% OFF THE
SREF...THIS HIGHLIGHTS WELL THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY...WHICH IS DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...THOUGH CONDITIONS
LOOK WORSE DOWN TOWARD THE SIOUX CITY AREA.
FOR NOW...HAVE HEADLINED THE FWF WITH THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE HWO.
WE DISCUSSED ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT THERE ARE STILL TOO
MANY IFS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT TO GO WITH ONE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL
DETERMINE THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS AND GEM 13.12 ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSING OF THIS FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
THOSE LOCATIONS THAT DO MANAGE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY PICK UP
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
PATCH OF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR AXN IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING
AS MIXING INCREASES. THE HRRR HANDLED THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS
WELL...SO FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR CIGS GOING INTO TONIGHT.
BASICALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE A CERTAINTY ACROSS NE MN/NW
WI...WITH QUESTION BEING HOW FAR SOUTH DO THEY EXTEND. BASED ON
THE GFS/RAP/HRRR...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL MPX
TERMINALS...THOUGH THE NAM DOES HINT AT THIS CLOUDS BRIEFLY
GRAZING RNH/EAU LATE TONIGHT...WHICH EXPLAINS THE FEW025 CLOUD
GROUPS THAT SHOW UP AT THOSE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...OTHER
ISSUE TO WATCH WILL BE AXN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO WRN MN. ATTENDANT LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OUT TOWARD AXN...WHERE CROSSOVER
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A VERY
ACHIEVABLE 10 DEGREE TEMP DROP. FOR NOW...HAVE AN MVFR VIS IN
THERE...BUT THE LAMP HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LIFR VIS IN FG.
OTHER THAN THAT...NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM
WHAT IS NOTED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS S AT 20G30 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 15-20G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WNW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EASILY EXCEED 20
MPH...AS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY SEE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THERE ARE TWO SOURCES
OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THE EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT HIGHS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE DEALT
WITH THURSDAY. THE OTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LOW WILL
DEWPOINTS BE. IF WE SEE THEM STAY STEADY AROUND 30...THEN
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE NO TROUBLE FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND
25 PERCENT WHERE TEMPERATURES MEET OR EXCEED 70. IF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMING IN AHEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT ARE MORE
EXTENSIVE THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN HUMIDITIES WOULD LIKELY
HANG UP IN THE 30S...EVEN IF WE DO SEE HIGHS AROUND 70.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
FIRE WEATHER...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
923 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C
SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT
REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS
IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH
KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES
THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE
THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST
TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT
EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY
MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER.
FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY.
LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH
700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND
WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK
SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL
BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP
TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET
STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12
SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW
COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL
AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TRANSVERSE THE AREA...OTHERWISE DRY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS
INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO
WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER
/700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE
AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND
208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM
NEEDED THE WARNING.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ206-209-
210-219.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC
OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN
REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE
THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY.
THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C.
DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW
IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP
TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR
NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME
LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL
IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY
LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE
STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT
THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD
FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT
BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECOUPLING OF THE WIND FLOW. CANT RULE OUT GUSTS TO 35 KT
AT ABQ SO AN AWW WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 22Z
TO 2Z. WILL BE MONITORING THAT CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE HIT AND MISS SH/TS. USING VCSH AND TEMPO SH AT QUITE A FEW
TERMINAL SITES LIKE FMN/SAF/AEG AND ABQ. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE
MOST UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WEST SO GUP HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
TS IMPACTS SO USED VCTS FOR THAT TERMINAL SITE BETWEEN 22Z TO 0Z.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY IMPACTS PRIOR TO 22Z THERE. MODERATELY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. CANT RULE OUT
SOME OCCNL MTN TOP OBSCD AND GRAUPEL ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS DUE TO
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH RISING DECKS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 35 65 31 69 / 20 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 25 62 24 67 / 30 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 29 60 29 66 / 30 20 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 63 25 70 / 30 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 56 28 63 / 30 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 25 59 22 67 / 20 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 57 30 64 / 20 5 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 67 37 74 / 20 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 57 21 63 / 30 20 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 58 35 65 / 20 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 32 55 31 64 / 10 10 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 56 23 64 / 20 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 48 24 55 / 30 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 49 18 58 / 30 20 10 5
TAOS............................ 26 58 25 66 / 10 10 5 0
MORA............................ 29 54 27 64 / 20 10 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 65 32 72 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 57 35 65 / 10 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 63 31 70 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 63 40 69 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 66 38 72 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 67 35 71 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 68 37 73 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 67 33 72 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 67 37 72 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 67 36 71 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 59 35 65 / 20 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 65 35 70 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 60 24 67 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 58 31 65 / 10 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 58 31 65 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 63 32 67 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 31 56 30 63 / 20 10 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 58 28 68 / 10 5 0 0
RATON........................... 30 60 25 70 / 10 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 59 25 70 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 56 27 67 / 10 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 62 34 72 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 60 30 68 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 41 65 35 72 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 65 33 71 / 10 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 68 31 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 65 33 71 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 64 33 70 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 66 34 71 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 67 35 69 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 60 33 64 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 37 54 33 59 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
MILDER ON MONDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS BY TUESDAY ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT SATURDAY...I`VE MADE GENERALLY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS, POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH 06Z WITH
THIS UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES WHICH
TAKE EFFECT AT 1 PM FOR NORTH-CENTRAL VT AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AREAS.
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EARLY EVENING IN SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. THIS
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR OTTAWA THRU THE I-81
STRETCH OF NY STATE. A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS IT,
PROJECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST
HRRR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY/SPOTTY ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF
PRECIP (LIKELY AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW) CONFINED TO NORTHERN VT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
THROUGH 800 MB AND RIGHT AROUND 0C UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION AFFORDS A CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL
SNOW AS COLUMN UNDERGOES FURTHER TOP-DOWN COOLING. I`VE USED THE
LATEST RAP THERMAL FIELDS FOR WX POPULATION THROUGH 06Z, WHICH
YIELDS SOME POCKETS OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT
THRU LATE EVENING GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE THERE,
BUT LOOKING AT LARGELY RAIN ELSEWHERE UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED COLD
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPS TO FALL MORE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 352 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...
HAVE BROADENED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT.
RADAR INDICATING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALSO SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE FORCING IS
GREATER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SEE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THAT WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT HOWEVER AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...LOOK FOR SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO GULF OF MAINE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE RAIN OR A MIX TO START...BUT THEN IT
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST FORCING LIES ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH 3-7
INCHES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AND 6-12 INCHES ATOP THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF NORTHERN
VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SO
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.
SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE`LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL TURN
MILDER WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AROUND 40. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ENHANCED BY NW UPSLOPE FLOW ON
TUESDAY, TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONTINUED COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW ON TUESDAY, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NW FLOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME -20C POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE GENERALLY 20S,
WARMING TO THE 30S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM SUBZERO TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WARMING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD -FZRA
(AT MPV) WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 02-05Z TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COOL FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. A 2-3
HOUR OF IFR SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE CHANGEOVER...FOLLOWED
BY A BIT OF A LULL (3-5SM -SN)...THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR
SNOWFALL SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS INTENSIFY FROM THE NNW. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT S-SE WINDS THROUGH 06Z...THEN GRADUALLY VEERING
TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15G25KT DURING SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL SEE SOME MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND OPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPS AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. HIR TRRN OBSCD AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...-SHSN TAPERING OFF DURING SUNDAY
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. N-NW WINDS
MODERATE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
SHSN WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY 06-12Z TUESDAY.
12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-016.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT...
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
MILDER ON MONDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS BY TUESDAY ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT SATURDAY...I`VE MADE GENERALLY MODEST
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS, POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH 06Z WITH
THIS UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES WHICH
TAKE EFFECT AT 1 PM FOR NORTH-CENTRAL VT AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AREAS.
SPOTTY PRECIPITATON COVERAGE EARLY EVENING IN SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. THIS
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR OTTAWA THRU THE I-81
STRETCH OF NY STATE. A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS IT,
PROJECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST
HRRR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SHOWERY/SPOTTY ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF
PRECIP (LIKELY AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW) CONFINED TO NORTHERN VT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
THROUGH 800 MB AND RIGHT AROUND 0C UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION AFFORDS A CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL
SNOW AS COLUMN UNDERGOES FURTHER TOP-DOWN COOLING. I`VE USED THE
LATEST RAP THERMAL FIELDS FOR WX POPULATION THROUGH 06Z, WHICH
YIELDS SOME POCKETS OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN VT
THRU LATE EVENING GIVEN SFC TEMPS IN THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE THERE,
BUT LOOKING AT LARGELY RAIN ELSEWHERE UNTIL AFOREMENTIONED COLD
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. TEMPS TO FALL MORE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOWS.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 352 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...
HAVE BROADENED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT.
RADAR INDICATING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALSO SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...AND ESPECIALLY POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE FORCING IS
GREATER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SEE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THAT WILL BE CHANGING TONIGHT HOWEVER AS CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...LOOK FOR SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO GULF OF MAINE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE RAIN OR A MIX TO START...BUT THEN IT
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT.
TEMPS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST FORCING LIES ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WITH 3-7
INCHES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT...AND 6-12 INCHES ATOP THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF NORTHERN
VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL
BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SO
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.
SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE`LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL TURN
MILDER WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AROUND 40. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS, ENHANCED BY NW UPSLOPE FLOW ON
TUESDAY, TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
ENERGY WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONTINUED COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW ON TUESDAY, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE NW FLOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME -20C POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A
WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE GENERALLY 20S,
WARMING TO THE 30S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM SUBZERO TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WARMING TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
THE DRY SLOT CURRENTLY LEAVING MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITHOUT
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST AND SURGE OF MORE MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS STARTING AROUND 21Z. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW STARTING BETWEEN 00Z-02Z AT
KMSS/KSLK...03Z-06Z AT KPBG/KBTV/KMPV/KRUT. AS RAIN MIXES TO
SNOW...VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT NW AND
PICK UP TO 10-15KTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN CONTINUED SNOW.
FROUDE NUMBERS INDICATE BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES AT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WHEN MORE STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA, BEFORE SHIFTING
W/NW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY LATE MORNING WILL SEE NW WINDS
AT 10-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESP AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-SHSN
TAPERING OFF WITH LESS COVERAGE AFTER 15Z.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
SHSN WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-016.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM FRIDAY...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT IN THE CWA... WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. RETURNS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA DON`T SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND
PER OBSERVATIONS... DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z... AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS IN THE HEART OF THE WEDGE...
NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD. MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING
HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN
ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER
IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40
KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK
INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE
PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S
RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING
SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43.
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT.
FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY
WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED...
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC.
EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT
SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS
WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM
FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING
WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO-
BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED
NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY
DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR
AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...RAH/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY... AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
SUNDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
QUITE A FEW CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
FACTOR FOR THIS IS THAT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A GREAT JOB OF
ANTICIPATING HOW DRY THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEEN. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST
PLACES. SYNOPTICALLY THE CURRENT 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE TRI-STATE
NY/NJ/CT AREA IS IN A FABULOUS LOCATION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT
AND WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE EASTERLY WINDS OVER US RIGHT NOW BUT THE
WEDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER AND PRODUCE PRECIPITATION BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL EVAPORATE
INTO THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AS VIRGA BEFORE EVER REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS COULD PREVENT THE WEDGE FROM EVER REALLY LOCKING IN AND
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS VERY TRANSITORY AND WILL BE SLIDING
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY CREATING MORE OF AN IN-SITU DAMMING SETUP.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY WIN THE DAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP TO
HIGHER VALUES THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED WITH LOW 50S IN THE TRIAD
TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL BE STEADY BUT LIGHT AND QPF
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
BE INFLUENCED BY TWO SURFACE LOWS...THE FIRST OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHERN LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. THIS INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HELP TO
QUICKLY BREAK DOWN THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE AS IT PUSHES THE RETREATING
HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS HAPPENS BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT MID 40S TO MID 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OUT TO SEA...THE IN-SITU CAD WEDGE WILL QUICKLY BE BLOWN OUT AND IN
ITS PLACE A SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BE REFOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND INTO EASTERN NC. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NW TO SE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND NEW FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...INSTABILITY BEGINS TO CREEP IN LATER
IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED AND BULK SHEAR VALUES PERSIST ABOVE 40
KTS. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AFTER 18Z. EVEN BACK
INTO THE TRIAD AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD END EVERYWHERE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: A STRONG COMPACT MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
DRYING AND STABILIZING TREND THROUGH THE COLUMN... ALTHOUGH THE
PASSAGE OF SHEARED VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERATE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY... PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL THOUGH... EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER... AS HAD THE OP GFS UNTIL YESTERDAY`S
RUN... SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO 65-72. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD LIGHTENING
SURFACE WINDS... AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES... TEMPS SUN NIGHT
SHOULD DROP TO BELOW-NORMAL READINGS OF 37-43.
FOR MON/MON NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE
HIGH SITTING OVER THE AREA EARLY MON WILL DROP QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
MON... IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH... AND THIS PUTS NC FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS OF 65-70. THE
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR STREAM WAVE CROSSING SRN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... WITH WHICH THE GFS IS 6-9 HRS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF (AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER). AS A RESULT THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA MON NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT FURTHER NW AND KEEPS NC IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF BASED ON ITS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
SO WILL RAISE LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S MON NIGHT.
FOR TUE-THU: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECEDING FLOW STILL LOOKS TO
BE LARGELY FROM THE WEST OR NW... ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH A DEPTH SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT... BUT WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOWER FRONTAL APPROACH ON TUE FAVORS A MILD DAY
WITH WARM THICKNESSES LINGERING LONGER... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THICKNESSES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WED...
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND BUILDS INTO NC.
EXPECT HIGHS WED TO BE BACK DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE FRONT
SHIFTING BACK INTO WRN/SRN NC TO THE N/NE EARLY THU... ALTHOUGH
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP REGARDING THE SURFACE HIGH AS
WELL AS WHICH STREAM WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. THE MORE SOUTHERN-STREAM
FOCUSED GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THU BEFORE MOVING IT OFFSHORE THU EVENING... CAUSING THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO STRENGTHEN JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH INCREASING OVERRUNNING
WITH TIME... WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
POLAR STREAM IS MUCH FASTER AS IT TAKES A WEAKER HIGH OFFSHORE AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THU. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... WILL FOLLOW A CLIMO-
BASED APPROACH AND BRING LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE SRN/WRN CWA WED
NIGHT/THU WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY
DEWPOINTS AND RAP SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE JUST HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO EAT AWAY AT
THE DRY LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY 18Z OR SO...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TRIAD SITES...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHERS AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOWING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AFTER PRECIPITATION BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY
DECLINE WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SLOWLY DEGRADING THROUGH MVFR
AFTER 00Z TO AT LEAST AS LOW AS IFR LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND REMAIN THERE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
FOG/STRATUS COULD BUILD INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 22-23 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED UPON
POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR FOG AND STRATUS HAS ERODED AT KMOT...YET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT KJMS THROUGH 20-21 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG MAY
BUILD BACK INTO KMOT AND KJMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TWEAKED SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS MORNING AS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN ND WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH. WILL CHECK OVER WINDS BEFORE
SENDING OUT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN
MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS
LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND
DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL
KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF
DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA
OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL
CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED
SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT
925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN
THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY
WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE
MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC
TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND
WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD
MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL
OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL
THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR.
CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY
TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS
OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO
BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN IMPROVING TO VFR
BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT AND KJMS LONGER
INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
GIVEN A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK AS OF 14 UTC...WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE 11 THROUGH 13 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING THE FOG AND STRATUS NORTH AND THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...HOLD IT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE ADDRESSED THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE. LATEST HIGH RES-MODELS HOLD THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED THE TREND TOWARDS
THIS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
HAVE TO GIVE THIS A SECOND LOOK A LITTLE LATER AT THIS WOULD ALSO
HAVE AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES IF IT WERE TO LINGER INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH FOG EXTENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE MODELS DEPICT A 500MB TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN...MANITOBA...AND THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ALIGNED/PHASED WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND THE UPPER
LEVEL 500MB TROUGH. THE MODELS FORECAST THESE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH SOMEWHAT OF A RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE
LITTLE TO NO COLD ADVECTION...AND DAYTIME WARMING WILL NOT BE
IMPEDED DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 50-60 DEGREE RANGE
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST OF THE RIVER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK 15-20 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AS THE MILD PACIFIC HIGH EXPANDS
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY AS THE PACIFIC
HIGH AIRMASS MOVES EAST...AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
CENTRAL TO THE MID 30S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THERMAL RIDGE PASSING OVER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ONCE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO MIX
OUT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS. AGAIN...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH 70S SOUTHWEST...60S ELSEWHERE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS).
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS. STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION IF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES...AS THIS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SWITCHING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TIMING
TROUBLES ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE UPPER JET STREAK PASSES OVER. AS WITH
THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...QUESTIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE
REMAIN AS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THE
SWITCH OVER BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION COME TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS AT KISN AND KJMS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY 16-17 UTC. FOG AND STRATUS MAY LINGER AT KMOT LONGER
INTO THE 18-19 UTC TIME FRAME. VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE 12 UTC TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
TODAY...MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR WILL DOMINATE AREAS ALONG...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...THUS NOT
REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY...A WARMER AND WINDIER DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 MPH...ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HAD CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR DETERMINING WHETHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUE TODAY IS CLOUD COVER TRENDS WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPS. MOST OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. IN ITS WAKE IS AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS IN
MANTIOBA ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOST OF THESE ARE
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AIMED FOR FAR NE ND/NW MN. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS FINGER OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK LAST EVENING AND EXTEND THROUGH MINOT TO DEVILS
LAKE. RAP/HRRR HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB IN DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS AND
DO HAVE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD FARGO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AS THEY SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. THEN RAP MODEL
KEEPS A POCKET OF 925 MB MOISTURE IN CNTRL ND REGION INTO THE
EARLY AFTN BEFORE BREAKING UP. EXTEND OF LOW CLOUDS AND TIMING OF
DISSIPATING KEY IN TEMP FCST TODAY. ATTM WILL PLAY WITH THE IDEA
OF LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATE MORNING IN DVL BASIN AND GENERAL
CLEARING OR INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTN. THUS TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
AS ANTICIPATED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THAT AREA. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE RRV INTO MINNESOTA MIXED
SUNSHINE AND SOME CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHC FOR A LITTLE -SN OR -RA IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTN. TEMPS AT
925 MB COOL TO 0C BY 18Z BUT THEN START TO RISE THIS AFTN AS WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER NORTH DAKOTA. NET RESULT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY BY 6-10 DEGREES.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
RETURN FLOW SETS UP SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN ERN ND IN
THE AFTN. ALSO WARMER AIR RETURNS AS HIGHS REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
SAT NIGHT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING MANY AREAS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUN AFTN-EVE. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
THEN WEST JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AFTN AS IT MOVES SOUTH. VERY
WARM AIR AT 850/925 MB...ESP SE ND WHERE 925 MB TEMPS REACHES THE
MID TEENS (C). EXPECT TO SEE A BUMP IN TEMPS AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AND FOLLOW ALONG WITH NAM AND ECMWF SFC
TEMP GUIDANCE IN SHOWING 70-72 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS FARGO AND SE ND
WITH 60S IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. MODELS DO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT COULD
MEAN TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD OCCUR IF FULL SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE SPREADING EAST POST FRONTAL
OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NAM IS DRIEST OF ALL MODELS...GFS ISNT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER AND MORE SOUTHERN ND IMPACTS. ECMWF IS A BIT
WETTER AND MORE NRN FCST AREA IMPACTS. NET RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP
A LOW POP FOR -RA AND THEN -RA/-SN SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...A 150-160 KT STRAIGHT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER ON MONDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND STRONG COLD ADVECTION SURGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY...AND FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS MAY STILL BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY COOL
THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE...WARMEST SOUTH.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TUE/WED
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO PERHAPS SOME 50S...AIDED BY LACK OF SNOW COVER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL BY THURSDAY WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND BR WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ST MOVING INTO FAR NW ATTM ALONG WITH SOME LOWER VSBY IN BR.
CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS LIMIT MAJORITY OF LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY
TO DVL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT IMPROVING DURING THE AM. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS DID ADD SOME MVFR CIGS
OVER REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN. MOST AREAS TO
BE VFR BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
932 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
NUMEROUS SHRA OF RAIN OR SNOW DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS VERSUS THE RUC. THE HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP INITIALIZING
WITH FAR MORE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT SO QUESTION THE
FORECAST OUTPUT. WILL BACK POPS IN THE SNOWBELT AREA DOWN A LITTLE
MORE PER THE RUC. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE
NOT LOOKING DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE SW HALF HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS THERE TO FALL
MORE THAN NE BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TEMP FALLS IN THE SW
HALF WILL SLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAMS AND NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT
FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY
GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH
THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SOME.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY
HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER
DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN
MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOUT THE SW HALF OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS
LOWER MI AND SHOULD ROTATE SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. NOT
SEEING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WITH THESE CLOUDS SO HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST. VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH 06Z FROM KCLE AND KMFD EASTWARD. KTOL WILL ALSO GET BACK
INTO THE CLOUDS BUT KFDY SHOULD ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING SKC FROM WEST TO EAST. W TO NW FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS IS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012-
014-018-019-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOL AREA STAYING OUT OF THE
RAIN SO WILL LOWER THE POP THERE...ESPECIALLY NW LUCAS CO.
THE QPF STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOWEST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
AND THE HIGHEST MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE NUISANCE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA
AS QPF THERE...EVEN THOUGH HEAVIER THAN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...
SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER THAT NEEDED FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE HIGH
WATER PONDING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
THE RUNOFF FROM THE WARM RAIN EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WILL KEEP THE ICE MOVING AND ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM.
THE LOWS ARE ALSO TRICKY. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO HANG UNTO TO
SOME SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
GETTING DOWN TO 8 DEGREES AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR MONDAY
NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A LITTLE SUN AND THAT
COULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE.
THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM FOR MONDAY. IT SEEMS TOO WARM VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS. WENT CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. THE ONLY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE SHOULD WRAP UP DURING THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO
BEGIN TO RETURN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
SW ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY. WILL
GO WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LIGHT RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA.
WILL TRY TO TIME THIS PRECIP NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE NEW PACKAGE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
RAIN WILL START WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT RAIN THEN
CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DIP TO MVFR. FOR THE NE 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS
WON`T OCCUR TILL AFTER DARK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT IN THE TAFS. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
BY 12Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT FLIPPING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WATCH AREA
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL HELP MOVE
ICE IN THE RIVERS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS. EXPECTED
RAINFALL TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WATCH AREA WILL MAINLY BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE
COVERED. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE ROCKY RIVER IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
WAS FREE OF ICE.
DID NOT EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS
MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO NEARLY AN INCH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
HYDROLOGY...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST...AFFECTING KOUN AND
KOKC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KLAW AND KSPS
EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND
LAWTON/DUNCAN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 70 20 10 0
HOBART OK 71 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 74 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 100 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF STILLWATER/OKC AND
LAWTON/DUNCAN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY... PRIMARILY
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IFR
CIGS HAVE HELD STEADY THIS MORNING AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
OK... EAST OF THE OKC METRO. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE MORNING... SPREADING INTO CENTRAL OK
THIS AFTN. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO START -RA AT KOKC/KOUN WITH A
TEMPO AFTN 13/18Z... AND PREVAILING FROM 13/20 TO 14/01Z. LOWER
CHANCES AT KLAW AND KSPS LATE THIS AFTN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS THERE
FOR TEMPOS WITH -RA. EXPECT MOST VIS TO HOLD VFR... BUT DIPS TO
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CEILINGS... BUT MOST SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON RAIN CHANCES THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY.
CURRENTLY... THROUGH 230 AM CDT... CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND ERN OK ON REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR AND RAP
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE INITIALIZED WELL GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. FEEL
DECENT CONFIDENCE IN SHORT RANGE/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW. GOOD FORCING IS ALWAYS A PLUS FOR THE
HRRR/RAP/WRF RUNS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO START TO MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 3 TO 6AM (8-11Z)... MARSHALL/BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES. WITH RAIN FALL INCREASING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO DEFINITE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-40/I-44 EAST OF THE OKC METRO... IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/S/SE OK.
LACKING INSTABILITY... EXPECT ONLY RAINFALL.
BESIDES RAINFALL... WATCHING FOR FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING... COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST WEST OF I-35 IN SRN OK
THIS MORNING... POTENTIALLY BETWEEN I-35 AND I-44. LL WINDS REMAIN
WEAK... BUT DPTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND THIS
REGION REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT WILL BE WINDS THROUGH 6AM... WHICH START TO BACK TO THE
NORTH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR THE WEEKEND... MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES ON SAT WILL REACH
THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CARRY INTO MON... WITH ABV AVG HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUE AS ANOTHER FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION... BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND INTO THU. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN OKAY AGREEMENT... ALSO... SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY GIVE US SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WED AFTN/EVENING AS WELL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS... FOR STARTERS... SHEAR IS PALTRY
WED... NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL GROWTH.
TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE TUE-
THU SYSTEM... PUSHING IN FRI AM... BRINING ANOTHER POTENTIAL QUICK
SHOT OF PRECIP TO END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 49 69 43 / 40 20 10 0
HOBART OK 68 47 68 40 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 49 68 42 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 71 40 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 45 69 36 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 51 63 45 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1136 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 14/06Z. EXPECT
WIDELY SCT SHWRS TO CONTINUE THRU 13/09Z...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH UNTIL THEN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING PREDOMINATE RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 13/09Z. WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR THRU 13/09Z TO PREDOMIANTE
MVFR...AND THEN IFR CEILINGS...THRU 14/06Z. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINATE MVFR VSBYS THRU 14/06Z ALSO. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUES AT CKV BETWEEN 14/10Z-14/14Z PER EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING
POTENTIAL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED THRU
14/06Z ALSO AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF 18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
WET WX PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS MID STATE THRU 13/24Z. DO NOT EXPECT
PREDOMINATE RAIN UNTIL AROUND 13/06Z TAF SITES...AND WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS
EXPECTED UNTIL THEN...WILL MENTION VCSH. EXPECT NIMBO-STRATUS VFR CEILINGS
TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR/ALONG WITH VSBYS...BY 13/06Z. THE GENERAL TREND
OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THRU 13/24Z...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MODERATE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOST ENHANCED CKV BETWEEN 13/09Z-13/14Z PER
EXPECTED DEEPEST MOISTURE POOLING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ENHANCED
THRU 13/24Z ALSO AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID STATE FROM SW...WITH GUSTS OF
18KTS-20KTS POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS
WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES
OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER
GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE
WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD
OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID-
STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR
TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE
SAME.
RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE
BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S
WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION,
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH
AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY).
LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH
WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A weak surface cold front appears to be located from south of KROW
eastward to near KBGS. It`s hard to define the boundary right now
as insolation is offsetting meager cold air advection. In addition,
much of the Permian Basin is sitting in a col in the surface pressure
field, meaning that winds are light and variable and the cold
front will become a bit more diffuse. Winds will become northerly/
northeasterly in the 10-15 mph range around midday. Convection-
allowing models are developing an extensive CU field by mid
afternoon across the Permian Basin south across the lower Trans Pecos
and west across southeastern New Mexico. Within a few hours of max
heating, WRF and HRRR model data and BUFR soundings suggest a few
-SHRA developing over southeastern New Mexico. With a dry sub-cloud
layer, however, the chances for measurable precip are pretty low.
This CU field will dissipate around if not before sunset as the
PBL decouples; however, we will see an increase in mid-level
moisture through the overnight hours. Winds will back a bit and drop
off some overnight. A secondary cold front, now nosing into northeastern
New Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle, is expected to arrive
during the morning hours Saturday. Temperatures tomorrow will be
slightly cooler than today given the mid-level cloud deck and weak
surface cold air advection. The upshot here is that winds will pick
up again out of the north to northeast into the 10-15 mph range by
mid morning, with higher gusts possible by midday Saturday as the
low level pressure gradient increases.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all area TAF sites through 18Z Saturday.
Northeast winds AOA 11 kts will appear for a few hours this afternoon
before falling off around sunset. North to northeast winds will
pick up above 11 kts by mid morning Saturday, with gusts up above
15 kts possible by the 18Z Saturday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with mid
and high clouds gradually increasing over the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds this morning will increase from the
northeast this afternoon, though are expected to remain aob 12KT,
and will diminish slightly after sunset.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
In the upper levels have persistent upper trough over Central Plains
that will develop a cut off low over Mexico. This low retrogrades
back to the west before weakening and being swept across the area
early next week. As this happens another upper trough will work
down the west coast keeping the region in SW flow aloft through the
end of the week. The result is an active upper pattern that will
keep potential for rain/storms in the forecast.
Will have increasing mid and high clouds today moving in from the
west. These should hang around most of the day but not have much
affect on temps. Mild wx will continue today with slightly above
normal temperatures with highs in the 70s. The wind will come
around to the north today but not expecting the arrival of a weak
cold front until Saturday. Should only be a few degrees cooler on
Saturday and Sunday. Highs return to the 70s by Monday as wind
becomes southerly. May receive another weak front the middle of
next week but models are having a hard time bringing it through.
Could be some showers and storms Saturday south of the Pecos
River... mainly over the higher elevations. Better chances of precip
next week. Storm chances begin Monday night down south and spread
across the area Tuesday and Wednesday as remains of lift track over
the area. Pops decrease a little on Thursday then pick up again on
Friday ahead of next upper trough. Currently best chance of precip
looks to be late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY
THIS EVENING AS A PESKY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KSHV MOVES NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH REGARD TO CIGS/VSBY. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW CIGS AND
AREAS OF FOG WHILE THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDS. EXTRAPOLATING THE RAP AND HRRR SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LOWER IFR CIGS/VSBY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015/
UPDATE...EXITING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER TEXARKANA AND WILL MAINTAIN
A SLOW NORTHEAST TRACK. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAINS OVER
TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH RAINS CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU COVERS ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
MARCOTTE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 52 69 51 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 53 71 54 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 57 68 57 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS EVENING
BUT LOWER CIGS ARE JUST BARELY TO THE EAST. SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS
HAVE AFFECTED GKY/DAL BUT NOTHING MORE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS A SLOW WESTWARD PUSH TO THE LOWER CLOUDS
AND THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW A
LOWERING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT AND GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE
MAJOR AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES IN THIS EVENING UPDATE. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
GRIDS OF TEMPS...DP...AND SKY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO MADE
A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THAT LITTLE OF THIS RAIN HAS ARRIVED...YET. WE STILL
EXPECT THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD SOME OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM SERIES STILL WANTS TO EXPAND PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS DO NOT. I WILL
SIDE WITH THE HI-RES HRRR AND DELAY A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE
RAIN INTO OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES...WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS EXTREME EAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE NEXT 30 HOURS. WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO
ATHENS LINE WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 SATURDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WILL HANDLE THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE NOT GONE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. 58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 53 68 47 / 30 50 30 20 10
WACO, TX 51 71 52 69 47 / 20 20 10 20 10
PARIS, TX 51 63 52 68 48 / 80 80 40 20 10
DENTON, TX 50 64 51 68 44 / 20 40 30 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 51 63 51 67 46 / 40 50 30 20 10
DALLAS, TX 52 66 53 68 48 / 30 50 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 52 65 52 67 47 / 50 50 30 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 52 67 52 68 49 / 40 40 30 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 50 73 51 70 48 / 10 20 10 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 70 50 69 45 / 10 20 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
922 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EDT SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND PUSH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUNDAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY END TONIGHT. THE HRRR...RNK WRFARW SHOWED MOST OF
RAIN SHOULD END BY 03Z-06Z. IN GENERAL...DECREASED POPS TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST SFC OBS
AND MODEL TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HELD ON TO CLOUDS IN THE
WEST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUDS IN
THE EAST TONIGHT LEANING TOWARDS THE CMCREG. WIND ADVISORIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A 55 TO 60 MPH JET WHICH PIVOTS ACROSS
OUR REGION. PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. KEPT CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONCERN THAT COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE.
AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET
BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK
WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT
TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF
SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS
ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE
HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
ALONG THE FRONT.
EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND
OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER
GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY
AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH
A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70
ELSEWHERE.
COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A
NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD
DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS.
OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST
TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR
WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO
COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK
CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS
FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER
MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST
SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS
SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A
WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT
ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY
COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH
COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7.
TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S
EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY...
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUED POOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LAST BAND OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW
VIRGINIA/NW-NC NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 03Z...THEN DISSIPATE.
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH ATTENDANT MFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER FROM
DAN-LYH UNTIL THIS PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME
FRAME...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR. ROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. LWB/BLF SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE MVFR-IFR CIGS
CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING WELL INTO
SUNDAY...PERHAPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY DRIFT
ACROSS BLF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NOTED ABOVE...THE BUT
THE AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH NOR IS THE FLOW OVERLY FAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT -SHSN OR EVEN MUCH -SHRA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT
ADVERTISED SUCH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT BCB THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME VFR AT TIMES.
OVERALL VSBYS...SHOULD BE VFR-MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AFT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOTED AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL YIELD WNW WINDS 13-17KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z SUN...BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. OVERALL...MOST VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FIRST PART OF THE WEEK THAN COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ009-012>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET
BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK
WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT
TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF
SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS
ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE
HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
ALONG THE FRONT.
EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND
OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER
GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY
AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH
A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70
ELSEWHERE.
COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A
NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD
DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS.
OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST
TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR
WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO
COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK
CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS
FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER
MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST
SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS
SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A
WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT
ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY
COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH
COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7.
TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S
EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY...
IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUED POOR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LAST BAND OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SW
VIRGINIA/NW-NC NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 03Z...THEN DISSIPATE.
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WITH ATTENDANT MFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER FROM
DAN-LYH UNTIL THIS PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME
FRAME...THEN CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR. ROA SHOULD REMAIN VFR
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. LWB/BLF SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE MVFR-IFR CIGS
CONTINUE/DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING WELL INTO
SUNDAY...PERHAPS UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA MAY DRIFT
ACROSS BLF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NOTED ABOVE...THE BUT
THE AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH NOR IS THE FLOW OVERLY FAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT -SHSN OR EVEN MUCH -SHRA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE NOT
ADVERTISED SUCH. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT BCB THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...BUT MAY BECOME VFR AT TIMES.
OVERALL VSBYS...SHOULD BE VFR-MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AFT 04Z. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOTED AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL YIELD WNW WINDS 13-17KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 14Z SUN...BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT
PASSES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER. OVERALL...MOST VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FIRST PART OF THE WEEK THAN COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ009-012>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
210 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY
WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE
TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE
RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING
RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
RADAR INDICATES THAT BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT ADVANCING MUCH FURTHER EAST AS THESE BANDS
ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 14/00Z OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...
WHERE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FINALLY MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS...CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE.
DURING THE 14/00Z TO 14/03Z TIMEFRAME...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL TO
IFR LEVELS...LTE 1KFT...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BANDS OF RAIN WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
AND...WHILE NOT FALLING CONTINUOUSLY...RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ON
THAN OFF. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...
RAMPING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS TO MVFR WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
SHOWERY NATURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS
OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING
UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE
WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH
COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN
THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1016 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN STARTING TODAY AND LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT FRIDAY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGED AGAINST THE
EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS PUSHES EAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF COAST ADVANCES INTO ARKANSAS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM
THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH IS HANDLING CURRENT AREAS OF RAINFALL VERY
WELL. ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE SCATTERED...ALLOWING SOME SUNSHINE
TO REACH THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT...THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL STILL SEE
RAIN OFF AND ON...SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES CATEGORICAL. HIGHER FLUX OF
MOISTURE OVERALL WILL BE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
BROAD UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT. WITH RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING HIGH IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
ALBEIT WITH WATER LEVELS ON THEIR WAY DOWN...AND TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW PACK...WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY INTO SUMMERS COUNTY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM THOSE OBSERVED
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND OVER THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THE MORNING
RAIN AND LATE DAY SHOWERS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY. NOT MUCH COLD AIR IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOWS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS RANGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING.
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WITH A WARM START TO THE DAY...SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST AND MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST. PRESSURE RISES AND A BRIEF BUT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DECOUPLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RAIN WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEEPING IT
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING THEN BRING CIGS TO MVFR IN BLF/BCB/LWB IN
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...REACHING ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 20Z-22Z TIME
FRAME
CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO LIFR AT NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT TRACKING
NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA. VSBYS WILL ALSO CREEP TO
IFR AT TIMES. THINK IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT RAIN WILL BE MORE ON
THAN OFF. OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL STAY UNDER 1KFT.
MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR
OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECASTING AROUND 1" OF RAIN BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS
OF SE WV NORTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...AND RIVERS STILL RUNNING
UP...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS GOING TO EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF SE
WV THRU EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SPECIFICALLY THINKING PLACES ALONG
THE GREENBRIER AND MEADOW RIVER WILL SEE THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...THE BLUESTONE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE GIVEN
THE LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE MTNS SURROUNDING THIS BASIN. BATH
COUNTY VA WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES ON BACK CREEK IN
THE WRN PART OF THE COUNTY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED HERE...SO NO WATCH PLANNED YET.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY...AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN NE TN AND WILL SPREAD SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES INTO THE NC MTNS THROUGH 3-4AM. THIS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL STAY WEST OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE
MORNING...MAKING INROADS TO OUR SW CWA BEFORE NOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AS A LEE SIDE WEDGE. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA FIRST AS INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF DATA HELD ANY PRECIPITATION
OUT OF ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
12Z/8AM.
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL START ENTERING THE FAR
SOUTHWEST POTION OF THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THROUGH THE DAY...COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND. BY NOON...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM LEWISBURG WV TO DANVILLE VA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY NOT
HAVE RECEIVED ANY RAIN YET. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE TIME
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION STARTS WORKING ITS WAY EAST OF THIS LINE...SO
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...EVEN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY WILL HAVE RECEIVED
SOME RAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MORE LIKELY EXPERIENCE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLEST ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 40S WILL
BE MORE COMMON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WET FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN BREEZY AND DRY FOR THE
SECOND HALF.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A MILD
DAY FOR SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE MOST PRONOUNCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY SATURDAY...THIS AREA OF LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A BAND OF SHOWERS TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST
FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...FROM OHIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WE MAY END UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN CULMINATING IN AN HOUR OR TWO
PERIOD OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...THE RAIN THREAT
WILL THEN COME TO AN END.
MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
FOR THIS EVENT. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE
INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
BY SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...YIELDING BREEZY DRY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AIRMASS PRETTY DRY AND THINK FOG THREAT FOR LWB WILL BE TOO LOW SO
REMOVED TEMPO THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS THEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING SUB VFR CIGS TIL
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM LWB/BLF/BCB SOUTHWEST...REACHING
ROA/LYH/DAN IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN ABOUT
1-3 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SUB
IFR...WITH WEDGE HOLDING SOME.
SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SE WILL OCCUR AT BLF IN THIS PATTERN
THRU MIDDAY...THEN WHEN RAIN MOVES IN WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME.
MODELS SHOWING STRONG LLJ SLIDING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR EXISTS...BUT AT THIS TIME TOO FAR
OUT TO ADD TO THE TAFS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
ON SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS AS THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN
FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. NEVER THE LESS...A GENERAL HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH
/1.00/ OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA. A HALF INCH OF RAIN
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR RIVERS OR STREAMS.
HOWEVER...AN INCH OF RAIN MAY CAUSE STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE
GREENBRIER AND UPPER JAMES TO APPROACH ACTION STAGE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
356 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AF WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AHEAD WILL DISSIPATE ONE THE FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA AND DRIER AIR RETURNS.
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CENTER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH DOWN-SLOPE FLOW AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. OUR FORECAST INCLUDES A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER
LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF.
LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
254 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK AND
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND USHERING IN DRIER AIR. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT SOME DOWN-SLOPING TO OCCUR. THIS
SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THIS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AS A DRY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVES TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WHICH GIVES MID TO
UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
NORTHERN FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT...AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ACROSS OUR CWA...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NORTHWARD
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
LATE WED NIGHT...LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL TRACK. MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NO WHERE NEAR FREEZING...THIS WILL BE ALL RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING A FOG THREAT LATE
TONIGHT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER
LATEST RUNS BACKING OFF ON FOG AND NOT SUPPORTED BY HRRR OR SREF.
LOW CEILING THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW. THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
SOMEWHAT...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S. WILL CONTINUE VFR FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF
IFR/MVFR AT AGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT OGB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HORUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE/DRY AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
340 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.
SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW-
SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN
BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.
STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.
FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935
RECORDS FOR MONDAY
GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
328 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.
SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECM FEW-
SCT250 BY 05Z-08Z. WINDS SSE 5-10KTS THRU 05Z-08Z SUNDAY THEN
BECOMING SW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z-17Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.
STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.
FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935
RECORDS FOR MONDAY
GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FOG AND STRATUS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING. MANY OF THE SITES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR IN DRY ENOUGH
AIR TO KEEP THE FOG AT BAY WHILE LOCATIONS LIKE LOZ AND SME WILL
BE MORE PRONE TO SEE THE DENSE FOG IMPACT THEIR SITE. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT...MVFR...FOG JUST TOWARD DAWN AT THE
OTHERS...BUT LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR OR VLIFR
FOG THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. LEADING INTO THE FOG SETTING UP
AT THOSE STATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALL THE FOG CLEARS BY 14Z WITH SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
147 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH THE COAST OF MAINE LATER THIS
EVENING...SPREADING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH PRIMARILY SNOW INLAND. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED IN INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...REALLY CUT BACK SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS UPDATE WITH
DRY SLOT ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK FURTHER
NORTH...LEAVING BEST FORCING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. ALL MODELS
ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HRRR ALSO SHOWS HEAVIEST PRECIP
FALLING WELL TO THE NORTH AND IN CARIBOU`S FORECAST AREA. WILL BE
DROPPING MOST HEADLINES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE WITH EXCEPTION OF
MOST NORTHERN ZONES.
02Z UPDATE...ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE INCLUDING SULLIVAN...BELKNAP...
MERRIMACK AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES WHICH EXPIRES AT 10 PM. SURFACE
OBS SHOWING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THIS AREA AND STEADIER
PRECIP HAS NOW MOVED EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST WILL
LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF QPF THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
STEADIER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND EXPECT THIS THIS AREA TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE
FROM A FEW TEMP TWEAKS...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE
COAST. 17Z GYX SOUNDING REVEALED THAT ALL MODELS WITHIN THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE WERE RUNNING A LITTLE OVERLY WARM THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COLD AIR DAMMING TREND WILL KEEP A
LITTLE MORE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN OVER CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE MAINE COAST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVAPORATION COOLING CONTINUES WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES STILL IN THE 20S MANY AREAS. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED.
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OF MAINE EXCEPT YORK COUNTY
INTO THIS EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS DURING THE PERIOD 03Z-06Z.
THEREFORE...AT THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE RAIN OR
SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ALL MODELS WRAP SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE COAST SUNDAY. OVER EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE...LESS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.
THEREFORE...NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION.
SNOW TRANSITIONS TO FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW WIND CHILLS AND RATHER CHILLY
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE NEAR ZERO
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
MONDAY. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT BUT OVERALL IMPACT LIKELY THE SAME FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY
ONWARD. A RETURN TO SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS
COULD INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IF LOW PRESSURE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TO OUR
EAST... THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS
WHILE DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS. ALTHOUGH
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
THE AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY A BIT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING
ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ALL THE DETAILS WITHIN THE BROADER LONGWAVE
PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...
STRENGTH... AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE FLOW AFFECT
THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE MOST NOTABLE DISCREPANCY
EXISTS ON SATURDAY WHEN THE ECMWF TRACKS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. THE GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE AT ALL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINE WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG IN THE BAYS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT.
LONG TERM...OFFSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST UP TO GALE FORCE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ018-019-024>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-020>022-028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ003-005-006.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
002-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KISTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID MARCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH.
A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD
INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO
-17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE
ICE COVER EXIST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A
RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
PASSING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS TODAY...LOW-LEVELS
WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR WX TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF
THIS FCST PERIOD. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. WITH
STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABOVE AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC LAYER...
KIWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING
MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS. SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN DECOUPLED AT
KCMX. SO...LLWS MAY OCCUR THERE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
OTHERWISE...WITH SOME DEEPER MIXING...KSAW AND KIWD WILL SEE GUSTS
AOA 25KT IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
420 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.
THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.
SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:
GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935
FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.
MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.
TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.
TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.
WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?
THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.
KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE BIG ISSUE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
OCCURRING HOURS BEFORE MODELS HAVE INDICATED AND THIS SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE GROUND. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY...THE WIND SHEAR ISSUE SHOULD DECREASE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C
SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT
REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS
IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH
KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES
THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE
THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST
TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT
EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY
MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER.
FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY.
LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH
700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND
WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK
SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL
BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP
TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET
STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12
SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW
COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL
AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS
INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO
WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER
/700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE
AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND
208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM
NEEDED THE WARNING.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
144 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT WHILE A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD ESE BACK OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TONIGHT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW
NUMEROUS SHRA OF RAIN OR SNOW DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS VERSUS THE RUC. THE HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP INITIALIZING
WITH FAR MORE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY PRESENT SO QUESTION THE
FORECAST OUTPUT. WILL BACK POPS IN THE SNOWBELT AREA DOWN A LITTLE
MORE PER THE RUC. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION AS MOISTURE
NOT LOOKING DEEP ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW.
LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THE SW HALF HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS THERE TO FALL
MORE THAN NE BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN TEMP FALLS IN THE SW
HALF WILL SLOW. WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 30S...WITH MOST PLACES JUST TOUCHING
FREEZING BY DAYBREAK.
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE AREA AS POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAMS AND NEW FLOODING STILL EXISTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY ENDING
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. WINDS BEGIN TO
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN OHIO BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE ENOUGH SUN TO GET THEM NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. COOLER ACROSS THE EAST.
MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD AS THE ENTIRE DAY IS IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS...EXPECT
FOR THE SNOWBELT WILL HIT AND/OR EXCEED 60 DEGREES. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON A SLOW STEADY INCREASE WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAY
GET AN EARLY SPRINKLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME MONDAY. TIMING WITH
THE FRONT HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY EVENING. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES SOME.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG MONDAY NIGHT AND IT CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN
LAKES. MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL. MAY
HAVE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY... SLOWLY BUILDING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT
ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS COLDER BUT DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE COLDER
DRIER GFS. THAT TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH EVEN
MORE DIVERGENCE BUILDS BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH
SO WILL SIDE TOWARDS WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. CLOUDS ARE
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO
AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE OHIO(AND POSSIBLY TOL) OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT ERI OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NO GALES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. SUNDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND THEN DROP SOUTH TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MONDAY EVENING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A SECOND COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>010-012-014-
018-019-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS OF 03Z...VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM KFSD WAS APPROACH 40 KTS AT APPROXIMATELY 1500
FT AGL. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 50 KTS AFTER 06Z. THE
QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET NEAR THE SURFACE AND WHEN.
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KSUX...INCREASE
IN WINDS AT SURFACE WILL BE SLOWER THAN AND LAG INCREASE ALOFT.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KFSD
AND KSUX FROM AROUND 06Z THRU MID MORNING. THE DURATION WILL
DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY WINDS INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AND BEGIN TO
DECRASE ABOVE 1000 KFT AGL. IT IS POSSIBLE AT KFSD...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL INCREASE A LITTLE SOONER THAN CURRENT FORECAST BUT
WITH UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR 13Z.
OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH MOVES IN AND WILL EVEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
525 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.
SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES. FOR KGLD...THOSE WINDS WILL START RIGHT
AWAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. FOR KMCK...THOSE GUSTY
WINDS WILL NOT START UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.
STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.
FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935
RECORDS FOR MONDAY
GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST
SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1012 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THIS HAS
LIKELY HELPED LIMIT THE FOG TO JUST THE SME AND LOZ AIRPORTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING FOG CLEARS OUT BY 14Z WITH VFR AND
MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG...MVFR...LATE TONIGHT AT LOZ AND
SME...BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1028 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE
NH/ME STATE LINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS WAS WELL AS THIS MORNINGS HRRR MODEL RUN.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOME
WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS EVENING...ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
PREV DISC...
700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER
SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT
TO THE EAST TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD
STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT
OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO
THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM
PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL
BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW
FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO
HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE
00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS
COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR
TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON
GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU
AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW
AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND
500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL
LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE
MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009-013-014.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES.
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW SPREADING MID AND HIGH CLOUD OVER THE REGION. HRRR SEEMS A
BIT OVERDONE WITH AREAS OF QPF TODAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND
CLOUD BASES ON THE ORDER OF 8-10KFT WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE VIRGA OR AT MOST SPRINKLES. WILL KEEP WITH JUST ISOLD POPS
OVER OUR WEST AND NORTH...AND SCATTERED OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS.
TEMPS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR JUST RAIN
SHOWERS EXCEPT OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS...12Z 700MB TEMP WAS A
WHOPPING +4C UPSTREAM AT BOISE. WE WILL SEE SOME RECORDS FALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FROM REACHING OUR FULL
POTENTIAL WITH HOW WARM THE EXISTING AIRMASS IS. REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER...DEWPTS ARE 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...A RESULT OF THE GRADUAL MOISTENING UNDERWAY...SO EXPECT
HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY EVEN WITH SIMILAR TEMPS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WAS SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
NOT FALLING MUCH PAST THE 50S. WILL HAVE A VERY WARM START TO THE
DAY. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
OVER MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT BATCH
OF CLOUDS ENTERING WESTERN IDAHO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
BUMPED HIGHS TODAY DUE TO SUCH A WARM START. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE REACHED AGAIN TODAY.
NEED TO MENTION FIRE WEATHER HERE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WERE NOT
GREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LEVELS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S. MODELS
DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF GREAT MOISTENING OVER THE MID
LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE MOISTENING IS PRESENT BUT NOT A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT. WARMER HIGHS WILL LEAD TO SOME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE WINDS.
MIXING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW SOME GUSTINESS...BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
MIXING WILL BE GREATEST. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SMALLER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BUT STRONGLY
WORD THE FORECAST.
WINDS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL BE STRONG AS GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT. MIXING LOOKS DEEPER AT LIVINGSTON TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BUT MID LEVEL WINDS NOT AS STRONG. 700MB WINDS DO REACH
50KTS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LOCAL
STUDIES SUPPORT ADVISORY WINDS BEING HIT LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HARLOWTON AS LOCAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE
AFTERNOON OF MIXING HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR WARNING WINDS THERE...AND THE MIXING
WINDOWS LOOKS BRIEF...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ONCE ADVERTISED FOR TONIGHT...HAS BEEN
SLOWED EVER FURTHER TO BE MORE TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
COME TOGETHER ON KEEPING FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING
SOUTHERN MONTANA MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND GEARED IT TO MORE OF A
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND MADE IT VERY LIGHT TOO. BACKED OFF
MORE ON POPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
HAS ALSO BACKED OFF WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES BARELY FALLING BELOW
0C OVER CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY AS GUIDANCE WAS MUCH
WARMER. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AS IT WOULD BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MORE THAN
ANYTHING. WILL DROP THE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HWO
AND WEATHER STORY. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY BUT LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WENDESDAY BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT...AT THIS
TIME...NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER ON SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THIS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND APPROACHING OUR FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A
FEW MORE SUN BREAKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS INVOF KLVM. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT
KLVM AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS 35 TO 45KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 55KTS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 044/050 030/053 036/052 034/055 034/062 035/066
1/N 24/W 52/W 22/W 31/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 071 047/058 032/056 038/056 033/056 033/062 034/068
4/W 34/W 42/W 23/W 31/B 11/B 21/B
HDN 078 043/051 030/055 032/054 032/059 031/063 033/066
1/N 24/W 52/W 22/W 31/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 076 041/047 027/047 034/053 031/054 030/059 031/061
1/E 35/W 22/W 22/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 078 042/057 028/049 032/056 031/055 030/059 031/062
0/E 13/W 42/W 22/W 32/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 075 038/045 022/044 029/050 029/051 025/055 028/054
0/B 24/W 21/E 22/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 077 043/057 031/056 035/055 032/053 029/058 034/064
1/N 13/W 42/W 22/W 43/W 10/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND 20000 FT
AGL ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH CLEARING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
542 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.
THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.
SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:
GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935
FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.
MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.
TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.
TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.
WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?
THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.
KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE. WE SHOULD
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING UNTIL
WIND INCREASES AT GROUND LEVEL. THESE ISSUES RETURN THIS EVENING
AS WE DECOUPLE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH
MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED
FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY.
FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES
AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION
OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
621 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANCIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH MID MORNING IN VALLEYS WITH LIGHTER SURFACE
WINDS...AS CURRENTLY SEEING A 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO 30
KTS...STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHENARD
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE
SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN
BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS
RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL
KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER
TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO
WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER
WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK
REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK
THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE
HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES
FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY
UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS.
/ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR
AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000
TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF
BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY
WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50.
MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA.
THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE
FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE
PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY
QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE
HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL
MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL
BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN
GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO
RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.
WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHTS MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND POTENTIAL
OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RAIN
EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE. INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES
BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND THE GFS/ECMWF IN
THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 70 58 76 / - 10 20 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 52 70 57 76 / - 10 20 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 53 71 58 76 / 10 10 20 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 50 69 57 73 / - 10 10 10 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 54 69 57 71 / - - 10 30 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 70 58 75 / - 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 54 71 58 74 / 10 10 20 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 72 58 76 / - 10 20 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 54 71 59 77 / - 10 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 54 71 59 75 / 10 10 20 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 71 58 75 / 10 10 20 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS RENO NV
1205 PM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION
ROTORS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THE LEE SIDE VALLEYS, INCLUDING
BOTH KRNO/KMMH WHERE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN NEAR AS STRONG AS SOME
NEARBY OBSERVATIONS, BOTH AT THE VALLEY FLOOR LEVEL AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS. THE HRRR RUNS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWED WINDS
NOT REACHING CURRENT TAF FORECAST LEVELS, KEEPING STRONGEST WINDS
JUST OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS. WE WILL MONITOR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE ANY DECISION TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS MADE. THE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS STRONG AND WINDS COULD QUICKLY INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND MIXING
INCREASES. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE
FROM SMALLER AIRCRAFT IN THE VICINITY OF KRNO AS WINDS WERE MUCH
STRONGER AT RIDGE LEVEL AND LEE MT WAVE ACTIVITY WAS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN CLOUD FORMATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE SIERRA. SO IT IS
GOING TO BE A BUMPY RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST AND START ADVISORIES A LITTLE EARLY. A FEW
SPOTS WERE ALREADY HITTING 50 MPH AND THE WINDS AROUND PYRAMID
LAKE WERE STARTING TO INCREASE AS AS WELL. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST ITSELF AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING AND
BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGEST GRADIENTS AND MIXING
OVERLAP. UPDATES ISSUED. HOHMANN
SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALL AREAS TODAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. AS
THROUGH WEAKENS, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IN NORTHERN LASSEN THROUGH VERY
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM...
AS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE HAS BEEN DISPLACED INTO
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. HAVE CONTINUED
TRIMMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK; ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ARE LEFT
TODAY IN VERY NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY THROUGH EXTREME NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY. AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL NOT
BE MUCH TO DAMPEN WIND SPEEDS FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS AND THE SIERRA
FRONT FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY 60 MPH AT 700MB WITH A ISOTHERMAL
TO WEAKLY STABLE LAYER AROUND THE PEAK. THIS CORRELATES TO A
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND MID-
LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH MAX GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH.
THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL BEGIN
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SIGNATURES
ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT CONSIDERING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S, MIXING ALONE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE GUSTS INTO THE 40-45MPH RANGE.
BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEVADA INTERIOR DROPPING DOWN TO
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TOWARDS LOVELOCK. EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITY FOR SOME SPOTS
DOWN TO 1-3 MILES.
WINDS TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE JET EXITS THE
REGION. GENERAL TROUGHINESS SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
LIFTING JET. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY, STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE SIERRA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM UPPER LEVEL
COOLING. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION ABOVE 25% FOR THE SIERRA
FROM ALPINE COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY BY TUESDAY EVENING
WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST. SOME WEAK CAPE IS SHOWING UP, BUT
IT IS LESS THAN 50 J/KG WHILE SHOWING A LOWERING TREND FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED, WEAKLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM
ARISING OUT OF SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT
REPRESENTS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOYD
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW/BAGGY TROUGH
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE WITH THE
EC NOW DRIER THAN THE GFS. THIS LOW WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, BUT THE FORCING IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. WITH MILD TEMPS AND
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH IT, WE ARE EXPECTING MORE DIURNAL, I.E.
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SHOWERS WITH IT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. HAVE
DRIED THINGS OUT NORTH OF 80 EXCEPT TOWARD LASSEN PEAK IN NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH
THE INSTABILITY.
THIS LOW PULLS AWAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR LATE
WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT CA/NV NORTH OF I-80 FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER, BUT IT WILL NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH FOCUS IN
THE ENSEMBLES NORTH OF I-80 HAVE TRENDED POPS MORE THERE, BUT DID
LEAVE IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MINERAL COUNTY.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN
WESTERN NV AND NEAR 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH CONTINUED MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS
THIS MORNING. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS TODAY WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS 25-40 KTS
STRONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. SIERRA RIDGE WINDS GUSTING TO 65
KTS TAHOE BASIN AND LOWER NEAR KMMH. EXPECT SOME ROTORS AND MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE BUT LLWS IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. GOOD MIXING AND A MORE
UNIFORM LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MTN WAVES WEAK NEAR THE
SURFACE.
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LCL MVFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCN
NORTH OF KSVE AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002-003-005.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
IN NVZ004.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070>072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Weak shortwave trough now crossing the northern plains is bringing
some cirrus to the county warning area...but winds are still 10 to
20 mph in most areas with some gusts of 25 to 30 mph north of I 70
which is mixing down drier air and lower dewpoints. This in
combination with temperatures now in the 70s is producing relative
humidity levels of 13 to 20 percent in most areas which was handled
best by the RUC model. Will maintain the Red Flag
Warnings...generally north of a Herington...Topeka to Atchison line
until 8 pm. Only reason for not expanding Red Flag further south was
the lower wind speeds. Winds will remain south to southwest but
lighter later in the evening...although they may briefly pick up
slightly towards midnight before decreasing again thru sunrise. This
should keep temperatures up in the 40s tonight.
As the upper ridge to the west builds eastward into the plains on
Monday the high/northern plains sfc trough and front will strengthen
and begin to push southeastward. This will keep breezy conditions
across much of the cwa with another day of strong mixing into the
very dry and warm atmosphere aloft. Also highs in the lower 80s are
expected. With a similar scenario on Monday...have lowered dewpoints
but kept the warmer temperatures which gives minimum afternoon
humidity levels of 11 to 20 percent across all areas north and west
of the I 35 corridor. This is where the current Fire Weather Watch
is now located on Monday and did not adjust this location.
Also...with a Red Flag warning already in place across much of the
area at this time...decided not to upgrade the watch on
Monday...although tonights shifts will need to consider upgrading it
a warning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Monday night the cold front will push southeast across north central
and northeast Kansas during the evening hours then across east
central Kansas after midnight. High pressure will build south behind
the cold front with a tight pressure gradient with gusty north to
northeast winds through Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to
decrease Tuesday afternoon as the surface high build south.
Temperatures on Tuesday will fall back to seasonal values in the
middle to upper 50s for highs. Upper trough moving northeast out of
the southwest U.S. will bring a chance of precipitation late Tuesday
night through the day on Wednesday. Models have shifted slightly
southward with the QPF with the NAM the furthest south and the GEM
the furthest north. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 30s with
highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
For the extended period beginning Wednesday night doesn`t look to be
too active or bring much more than a couple chances of small amounts
of moisture to the region. The best chance will be likely be on
Thursday afternoon and evening with a weak mid-level impulse of
energy moving through the region within relatively zonal flow aloft.
However, this looks to be a rather small chance of general
showers. Then we do start to become a little more active into the
late Sunday time frame. During this time, the upper level pattern
begins to amplify over the Rockies and could develop a leeside low
pressure system which may be a bit more interesting weather wise.
However, this is too early to tell exact location and development of
any associated low or good forcing. Temperatures do still look to
be pleasant with highs mainly in the 50s and to mid and upper 60s by
Saturday. Low temps stay in check with no major systems entering
the picture only dipping into the mid 30s during the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast for all
terminal sites with no more than scattered cirrus. Gusty southwest
winds of 15 to 24 kts will decrease to 6-9 kts aft 01Z/16 before
increasing again to 10-20 kts after 15z/16.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 to 30 mph...will
maintain Red Flag Warning until 8 pm with minimum RH levels at or
below 20 percent. Temps fall and RH increases sufficiently by 8 pm
to let it expire at that time. Monday is looking similar to today
across areas north and west of the I 35 corridor with RH levels
falling into the 11-20 percent range in this area as temperatures
rise into the lower 80s with similar winds again Monday. Confidence
is increasing that the Fire Weather watch may need to be updgraded
to a Red Flag warning...but will let the shifts later tonight
reevaluate the need following the expiration of the current Red Flag
warning in effect this evening.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-034>039.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Drake/53
AVIATION...63
FIRE WEATHER...63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES INTO MONDAY...HOW
HOT IT GETS THROUGH MONDAY...AND HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN ON TUESDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWING A NEARLY ZONAL AND ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THAT FLOW BECOMES MORE OF A
SPLIT AND A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THIS LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...
THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMWF. THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD WITH CANADIAN...GFS...AND NAM DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD.
ALSO CANADIAN...MAV AND RAP WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN THAT WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST IS
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND. THERE LOOKS TO BE
ONLY WEAK IF ANY CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SO FLOW AS MID/UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THICK CLOUD COVER TO STICK
AROUND. AREA IS IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN BOTH JET STREAMS. MODELS
WOULD INDICATE DECENT HEIGHT RISES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH. ALSO THE SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO.
LATEST SATELLITE TREND WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THE BULK OF THE CLOUD
COVER WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. ALSO SOME THINNING AND WARMING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD SUPPORT THE ABOVE REASONING AND A CONTINUED
THINNING. SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO NOT HAVE A
MAJOR AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE WINDS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN WHAT TO DO WITH TODAYS TEMPERATURES. ON THE DAYS WHERE A GOOD
WARMUP IS EXPECTED...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL. NWP HAS GOT WARMER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. GOING BY THE 24 HOUR CHANGE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
...BIAS ADJUSTMENT AND RECENT TRENDS...RAISED MAXES AND WENT TOWARD
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS CONTINUED TREND FROM YESTERDAY IN REALLY SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT.
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY PUSH
FROM A SYSTEM ALOFT...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
INITIAL WIND SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BIG COLD PUSH AND INCREASE IN THE WINDS
NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. SO CONTINUED THE DAY TREND OF RAISING THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE EXTREMELY
WARM MAV BUT A LOT OF 80S LOOK IN STORE. SOME RECORDS MAY BE IN
JEOPARDY AND REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ALSO DRY AND WELL
MIXED AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
REFER TO WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
GOOD PRESSURE RISES AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT SO IT SHOULD
BE WINDY FOR A LITTLE WHILE DURING THE NIGHT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO COOL OFF MAXES ALTHOUGH
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN LOOKS IN STORE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR A DEEP COLD AIR MASS. CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
THE COOL DOWN. MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE REASONING ABOVE...RAISED THE MAXES A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY INCONSISTENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY.
THERE ARE SOME KEY THINGS TO NOTE HOWEVER. FIRST...THE GFS...GEFS
AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING FRIDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON
IS WILDLY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS TROUGH SO HAVE NOT FACTORED THIS
GUIDANCE INTO FORECAST DECISIONS.
SECOND...THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SEVERAL MEMBERS AND THE EUROPEAN
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO KEY IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
GUIDANCE SPREAD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THIS
SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS
HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR AT LEAST TWO RUNS. THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FORCING TO WINTER WEATHER AND STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE
MAY BE SOMETHING HERE TO WATCH.
BETWEEN THESE TWO DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES AND THE EUROPEAN
MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BASICALLY IGNORED THIS GFS RUN
AS IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GRADAULLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
FOR TODAY...SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DISAGREE HOW
MUCH...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE
WARMING TREND THE MODELS STILL WANTING TO MIX AS WELL AS YESTERDAY.
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY DEEP AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. DESPITE BEING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...DEWPOINTS
ARE STAYING LOW AND NOT RECOVERING MUCH. ALL IN ALL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LOW. SO THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR
WHERE TO HAVE A WARNING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE WINDS.
STRONGER WINDS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT HAD DETERMINED. SO UPGRADED THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
THE WATCH...OUTSIDE OF YUMA AND DUNDY...TO A WARNING. THOSE TWO
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH. THE WINDS IN YUMA AND DUNDY
DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.
FOR MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM/PREFRONTAL SECTOR ALL DAY LONG. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
PROBLEM IN REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PROBLEM
WILL BE THE WIND. THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE STRONGEST
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE. SINCE WE ARE HAVING
DRY...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WE DID HAVE FIRES IN THE
AREA YESTERDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND GOVE COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND....82 SET IN 1935
YUMA........81 SET IN 2003
MCCOOK......89 SET IN 1935
RECORDS FOR MONDAY
GOODLAND....83 SET IN 2012
COLBY.......82 SET IN 2013
TRIBUNE.....83 SET IN 2013
HILL CITY...84 SET IN 2012
YUMA........78 SET IN 2013
MCCOOK......87 SET IN 1930
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ015-016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS MOST
SPOTS HAVE CLEARED OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE
HWO TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING. TOOK TIME TO FRESHEN UP
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ALLOW THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS PLAGUED
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING TO CLEAR OUT. DID ADD
ONE MORE HOUR OF FOG TO THE GRIDS...HOWEVER SITES SUCH AS
SOMERSET ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MILD DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DID UPDATE
THE GRIDS WITH LATEST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND BLENDED INTO THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DID A QUICK TOUCH UP ON THE GRIDS MANY TO FINE TUNE THE FOG AND
SKY COVER. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS IS BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS. THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS CLEARING...
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SET UP AREAS OF DENSE
VALLEY FOG EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. LUCKILY THE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE GOTTEN MUCH WORSE AND SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED AT THE MAIN
OBS SITES DUE TO THE DRY ADVECTION AND A STIRRING OF THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA WEB CAMS STILL SHOW SOME DECENT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT MANY OF THE VALLEY SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITH THE DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS FOR THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
PURPOSES...AS WELL AS IN THE ZONES...SPS...AND HWO. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE AREA...AS WELL AS SOME OF THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS...TO THE
LOWER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN AIR TEMP IN THE NORTH AND ON THE RIDGES HELPING TO KEEP
THE FOG THERE AT BAY...BUT IN THE VALLEYS THE RH IS NEAR 100
PERCENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT SHOWING BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS WE ARE TO THE WEST OF A DEEP NEW
ENGLAND TROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO MONDAY WITH
THE TROUGH EXITING OFF SHORE AND THE RIDGE PUSHING HIGHER HEIGHTS
INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE NEW WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...ONCE THE AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG
DISSIPATES THIS MORNING AND SOME LIGHTER FOG CLEARS ON MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY AND REACH THE 70S
ON MONDAY FOR THE FINEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. TONIGHT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMP SPLIT SETTING UP
UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE
RATHER MILD FOR THE CENTER OF A HIGH IN MID MARCH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...THEY WERE ESSENTIALLY ZEROED
OUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE. ALSO OF NOTE...THE
DRIER WEATHER WILL BE JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED FOR SETTLING
THE RIVERS DOWN LATER TODAY AND MAY EVEN ALLOW BUCKHORN LAKE TO
DROP AND HELP CLEAR UP THE LINGERING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS FOR THE
AREA OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH VERY
LITTLE ICE IN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING...AND THUS...ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS...WILL SCALE BACK THE POPS FROM WHAT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...WITH A COLD NIGHT SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY SKIRTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...SO POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY GONE HIGHER WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE
AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
SLEET OR SNOW MIX IN AT THE ONSET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL PROFILES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LAST INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A DRY FORECAST TAKES
SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GFS REMAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A COOL DOWN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE SEASONABLE. WILL
TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR NOW AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
BASED ON VIS SAT THERE ARE JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...BUT MOST AREAS
ARE SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AFTER A FOGGY START TO THE DAY. TAFS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
OVER...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SME OR PERHAPS LOZ COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN MOVING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
DRYING SUNSHINE TODAY...DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND GUIDANCE NOT
HINTING AT FOG ISSUES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SITES VFR AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1255 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TRACKS NE AND INTENSIFIES AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO PLACE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO IN EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RADAR
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE LASTEST HRRR MODEL RUN THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISC...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING SOME WRAP AROUND SNOWS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO WIND DOWN.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN
TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD END UP IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
PREV DISC...
700 AM UPDATE...DID ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO POP BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR. MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AND ERODE THE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. MOST LIKELY WITH THE NEXT UPDATE SOME HEADLINES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
OXFORD COUNTY IN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING CLOSE TO
FORECASTED VALUES...SO JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH
UP WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
520 AM UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO POP TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY AS SHOWN BY THE 9MB PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. CURRENTLY SEEING INTENSE NORTH TO SOUTH
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELY UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER, FURTHER
SOUTH MIDLEVEL DRY AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED AND FOR THE MOST PART
THE PRECIP HAS BEEN CUT OFF HERE...SO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WERE
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT INTENSE BANDS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH. SNOWFALL
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT
TO THE EAST TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IT SHOULD
STILL WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE MARCH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MULTIPLE 500 MB BLOCKS FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DRIVING FORCES IN THE LONG RANGE. YET...STILL NE QUADRANT
OF NOAM ENDS UP WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE...AS CLOSED LOWS DO
THEIR FUJIWARA DANCE JUST TO OUR NORTH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MON NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH 500 MB RIDGING OVERHEAD...BUT FAIRLY
GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY TRACKING SE FROM THE NW TERRITORY WILL DIVE
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND ON TUE AND INTERACT WITH WEAK SRN STREAM
PASSING TO OUR S. MAIN FEATURE OF THIS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION TUE...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHSN FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. AS USUAL...BEST CHC WILL
BE IN THE MTNS...AND DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...DECENT NW
FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE...SO
HIGHS WILL BE UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME SUN. THE
00Z EURO IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC...WHICH HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN CLOSING OFF THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR SE. THIS
COULD THROW BACK SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE ERN ZONES LATE TUE OR
TUE EVE. HOLDING OFF ON COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THIS YET...BUT
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
THE COLD AIR REALLY COME RUSHING IN TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED ON
GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 20S...AND WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THIS WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. AS THOSE LOWS ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER TO OTHER N...WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THU
AND FRI...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WINDS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...BUT STILL BLO NORMAL. NEXT CHC OF ANY PRECIP...LIKELY SNOW
AT THIS POINT...IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AS WAVE ROTATES SE AROUND
500MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR N.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS COASTAL
LOW STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON NIGHT THRU THURSDAY. SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT IN SHSN. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MAINE IS ALREADY CAUSING GALE FORCE GUST OVER THE WATERS. HAVE
MOVED UP THE TIMING OF GALE WARNING DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TUE THRU THURSDAY. SCA LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON WED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009-013-014.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001-
002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
MAIN ISSUE INCLUDES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASED AS A TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH
TODAY.
THIS COULD BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS WIND SPEEDS ARE
CONCERNED. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE ITS MOVING THROUGH A BIT
EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. IT HAS ALREADY MADE ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ITS GOING TO BE A CLOSE ONE
WHETHER WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE FAR NORTH AND WEST TO
TECHNICALLY GET THREE HOURS OF WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH TO VERIFY A
RED FLAG WARNING. SINCE IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE...I AM IN NO WAY GOING
TO PULL THE RED FLAG WARNING WE HAVE IN PLACE. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...IT IS WAY MORE OF A SURE BET THAT WE WILL HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EVERYWHERE. WE WILL SURELY TANK FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...A
CORRIDOR OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE RAP IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL CWA...AND JUDGING BY WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY...THIS
LOOKS REALISTIC. I WENT CLOSER TO RAP DEWPOINTS TODAY AS IT SEEMS TO
BE DOING THE MOST CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC JOB AS OF LATE. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...I USED HIRES THE NMM WEST BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. THERE IS
A PRETTY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS CLIPPING OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD SHAVE TEMPERATURES OFF TOWARD ORD...WHICH IS REFLECTED TO SOME
EXTENT IN THE NMM BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTION. FOR LOWS TONIGHT...I WAS
TEMPTED TO GO WITH THE MUCH WARMER CONSRAW NUMBERS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AS CONSRAW IS TYPICALLY THE WAY TO GO
IF LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AS OF
LATE...MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PICKING UP ON HOW DRY WE ARE...AND
HENCE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALLOWED TO DROP A BIT MORE...SO I WOUND UP
GOING WITH MID 40S FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
ALOFT: NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOWED DOWN BY NUMEROUS PACIFIC
ORIGIN SHORTWAVE TROFS...MOST HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WX HERE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE W COAST OF MEX WILL BE KICKED N INTO TX BY
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY THREATEN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN. OVERALL...THERE JUST WON`T BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP.
SURFACE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE S THRU HERE MON EVE WITH
HIGH PRES DRIFTING BY TO THE N TUE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL DROP
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE BY WED-THU WITH ANOTHER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. LOTS OF NOISE WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. WE COULD SEE A
DECENT WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE PEGGED 3/21-23 AS A TIME FRAME FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS FOR DAYS NOW. THIS TIME FRAME NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WX.
THE DAILY DETAILS...
MON: WARM SECTOR. A TASTE OF SUMMER. ANOMALOUSLY WARM WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE! 500 MB HEIGHTS
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 MB TEMPS 2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL. SO BELIEVE WE ARE SAFE FORECASTING THIS EXTREME.
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS:
GRI: 83 IN 2012
HSI: 84 IN 1935
FIRE WX: COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES AND A
FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. RH IS
NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION OF THE NEEDED 3
HRS.
MON NIGHT: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TEMPS IN CAA. USED SUPERBLEND.
WINDY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAYS. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED A BLEND OF 18Z/00Z MAV MOS AND
MOS GUIDE WHICH HAS A PERIOD OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR G45 MPH.
TUE: BREEZY ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON. INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH COOLER
AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NORMAL.
TUE NIGHT: QUITE A DISPARITY BETWEEN MOS AND 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS. 2M
TEMPS OFFER 35-40F WHILE MOS OFFERS 24-30F. MULTI-MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE SYSTEM OVER TX.
WHILE I PREFER THE WARMER SCENARIO...I SPLIT THE DIFF TO REMAIN IN
TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
TEMPS CONT NEAR NORMAL WED-THU.
WED: LOTS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
CREEPING INTO THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA?
THU-SUN: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN PROVIDING
ANY DETAILS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND LOOKS PROBABLE...PER THE LAST 2
RUNS OF THE EC. IT ADVERTISES HIGHS IN THE 70S SAT VS. THE GFS IN
THE 40S.
KEEP AN EYE ON LATE NEXT SUN-MON. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH THUNDER
OR SOME SNOW OR BOTH DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS UNFOLDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL ALL SENSIBLE WX MISSES TO THE S IF THE LOW IS
SUPPRESSED AND HEADS SE INTO TX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA SITS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH. THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET BUT THE REST OF THE SETUP IS SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN STARTING ON OR AFTER 03Z AND LASTING UNTIL AROUND 15Z
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP TODAY...CREATING
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH
MOST AREAS NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT AS WELL. THESE COMBINED
FACTORS WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM CDT TODAY.
FOR MONDAY...COORDINATED WITH SPC/OAX AND SURROUNDING KS OFFICES
AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. RH IS NOT IN QUESTION...AND WE KNOW A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION
OF THE NEEDED 3 HRS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ064-076-077-085>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...EWALD
FIRE WEATHER...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CABO IN THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...FAST
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENT
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA...HAS SPREAD ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A THICK VEIL OF
CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...HAS LED TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH 3 AM CDT
READINGS RANGING FROM 43 AT OGALLALA TO 58 AT VALENTINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AS WIDESPREAD RECORD
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO HINT AT THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAX TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHS DERIVED FROM GFS AND NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE WARF AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
HIGHS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UTILIZING FCST RAP SOUNDINGS FOR
HIGHS YIELDS 82 FOR NORTH PLATTE AND 84 FOR ONEILL WHICH ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FCST. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 76 AT
VALENTINE...79 AT NORTH PLATTE...81 AT IMPERIAL AND 82 AT BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON OUR FCST HIGHS FOR TODAY...WILL WORD THESE AREAS
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST
WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS AND NAM SOLNS...LOOKING AT
THE H5 TO H3 LAYER...THIS CURRENT SHIELD OF CLOUDS...SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...FCST SOUNDINGS MIXED TO H775 PER THE RAP
MODEL...WOULD YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUST POTENTIAL APPG 25 MPH IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE NAM AND GFS
SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WITH THE RAP SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE
DOWNWARD NUDGE IN WIND SPEEDS...STILL THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY. ALBEIT THOUGH...DO NOT PLAN ON EXPANDING IT FURTHER INTO
AREAS COVERED BY A WATCH. FOR TONIGHT...BREEZY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DECENT H85 WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND NAM ONLY DIMINISH WINDS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED FOR WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS FOR
TONIGHT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT
UPPER 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 70S
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH THE COOLER AIR IS
DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
PRIOR TO THE COOLER AIR ARRIVAL. VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 12 TO
15 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL FORGO ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE FACT THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM MODEL MIXES THE NORTH
PLATTE AREA TO AROUND H750MB OR SO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS
AT THIS LEVEL ARE LIGHT...AROUND 10 KTS. EVEN IF WE ARE TO MIX
DEEPER...WINDS ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO IN THE
H750MB TO H650MB LAYER...SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE WILL NOT REACH WIND
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY. WINDS DO INCREASE RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...SO AS THE
WINDS INCREASE SO WILL THE HUMIDITY.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST WET SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS WARMER...AND KEEPS
THE PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GEFS HAS THE SYSTEM DROPPING MORE THROUGH
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LARGELY MISSING OUR AREA. SHOULD
SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS AT TIMES. THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
TO THE SOUTH BEFORE CHANGING BACK OVER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-209-210-
219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY DIMMING THE SUN...BUT SHOULD AT
LEAST TREND THINNER THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING THESE
CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...AS DEEP MIXING IS
LIKELY INTO 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 13C AND 16C. THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING BEST IN THIS WARM REGIME FOR
HIGHS. THE RAP USUALLY HAS A WARM AND DRY BIAS OVER THE AREA...AND
IT PROBABLY DOES AGAIN TODAY...BUT DID LIKE THAT IT WAS MIXING
DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. SO BLENDED IN SOME OF IT WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS ENDS UP GIVING WIDESPREAD
MID 70 TO LOW 80S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER DETAILS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THAT SAID...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA...ONLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-
LATE MORNING. A VERY STOUT THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CWA. IN FACT...900 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AT OR AROUND 22-24C MONDAY MORNING. RAPID
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A FAST JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY AREAS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AND SIGNIFICANT LAG OF COOLER 925:900 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAY ALLOW AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
SOAR INTO THE 80S. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP READINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CREATE A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE MANUALLY ADJUSTED AS
WE APPROACH MONDAY GIVEN AN EXPECTED NON-DIURNAL TREND.
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK COOLER AND QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT ON THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...BUT ANY QPF THAT DOES FALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VFR THROUGH 16/18Z. SURFACE GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA THROUGH 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
WILL START OFF THE DAY LOW BUT SHOULD ACTUALLY GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP MIXING INTO
DRY AIR ALOFT. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEWPOINTS AND THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ARW AND
RAP MODELS FOR DEWPOINTS...GIVING AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
STRONG CORE OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WINDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SO...WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WHERE THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RH VALUES. ELSEWHERE...THINK WINDS WILL
STAY JUST LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A
PERIOD WHEN DEEP MIXING GIVES 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS...BUT TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A MISMATCH OF THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH RFW CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER RH VALUES BEGIN TO
INCREASE WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS BECOMING BKN-OVC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL TEND TO ERODE ON THE FRONT END AND PROGRESS
WILL BE SLOW. HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR AT KAUS...THOUGH WILL
BE MORE OF BKN-SCT CHARACTER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
REACH KSAT/KSSF EARLY THIS EVENING BY 16/00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH KAUS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCES OF THE TAF SITES AND HAVE MENTIONED FOR 16/11Z-16Z.
SOME -RA MAY MOVE UP FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AS CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. N TO NE WINDS 6 TO 11 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VRBL
LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SE 4 TO 7 KTS ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
UPDATE...FORECAST FOR TODAY MAINLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AN INCREASE TO THE
SKY COVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN
BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 60F AS OF 10AM. THIS
RISE IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STREAMING HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE REGION. THE CIRRUS COUPLED WITH 2-3C LOWER H925 TEMPS WILL
KEEP MAX HIGHS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY 3-8F DEGREES. WESTERN AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR 70F WITH DEL RIO CLOSER
TO THE MID 70S. TOWARDS AUSTIN AND POINTS NORTHEAST...A LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD DECK EXISTS AND IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO
WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS COOLER
WITH MAX HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. IT WILL BE CLOSE WHETHER THE DECK
REACHES AUSTIN WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SLOW EROSION OF SW FLANK
THROUGH 1PM BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE GIVEN LIMITED MIXING DUE TO THE
HIGHER CLOUDS. STILL FEEL MOST AREAS CAN WARM ANOTHER 10F DEGREES
FROM THIS POINT DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LEFT MAX HIGHS MOSTLY
UNTOUCHED WITH SLIGHT 1F DEGREE DROPS FOR THE NE LOCATIONS.
/ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST ARE MAKING POOR PROGRESS
TOWARD THE AUS TERMINAL...SO WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
DAYTIME MIXING ABOUT TO BEGIN...WILL DELAY ALL MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DRAW NEAR
AUS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN...BUT
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 5000
TO 10000 FOOT LAYER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WILL STEER CLEAR OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF
BAJA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN STUCK IN A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A
STRONG RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THE WEATHER TODAY
WILL BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR RAIN PRODUCTION
WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. THE FORECAST REMAINS QUIET FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50.
MONDAY...MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BRINGING DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THAT AREA.
THE NEWEST 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS OPTIMISTIC AND LOSES THE SURFACE
FEATURE ALL TOGETHER. MOISTURE SLIGHTLY INCREASES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE WEAKENED BY
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO FORCE THE
PESKY STATIONARY LOW NEAR BAJA TO EJECT EAST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS IT DOES SO...THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING PRETTY
QUICKLY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLING TO OUR NORTH NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THUS THE
HIGHER POPS AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF OUR CWA. ALL
MODEL MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD REGARDING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LIFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS RAIN WILL STILL
BE LIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING JUST A BIT AND THE TIMING COULD SHIFT AGAIN
GIVEN LITTLE RAOB SAMPLING OF THE UPPER LOW. CAPE VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER COULD HAMPER THUNDER CHANCES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
THERE. MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH PWATS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA TO
RECEIVE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 600 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.
WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL NEAR THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
TONIGHT`S MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT OF THIS FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE FRONTAL FOCUS AND
POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RAIN EVENT COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO
CHANGE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES BEFORE THE FROPA...BUT THUNDER IS NOT
EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH AND THUS THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST/COLDEST. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL BLEND
THE GFS/ECMWF IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 52 70 58 76 / - 10 20 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 52 70 57 76 / - 10 20 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 53 71 58 76 / 10 10 20 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 50 69 57 73 / - 10 10 10 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 54 69 57 71 / - - 10 30 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 70 58 75 / - 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 54 71 58 74 / 10 10 20 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 53 72 58 76 / - 10 20 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 54 71 59 77 / - 10 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 54 71 59 75 / 10 10 20 20 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 71 58 75 / 10 10 20 20 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30