Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 03/14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
237 PM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AROUND CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA RANGING FROM UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S AND SKIES ARE SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN FACT...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN
CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. A
SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE OF ENERGY IS SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEVADA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL TROUGH...AS CAN BE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ECHOS
MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS
WELL AS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND WRF HINT AT AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS MARICOPA COUNTY...AND GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEEING SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE WITH THE DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SLOW TO CLIMB
BUT HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL ARIZONA NICELY
EVEN AFTER BEING COMPLETELY OVERCAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY AND PEAKING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SONORA BY LATE
TONIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AGAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
MONDAY.
SATURDAY A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXPANDS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO DUE TO A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON STATE LATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR LOW THAT MIGRATED TO
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE BAJA TIP THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE NICELY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WIND PATTERN SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. AS SUCH...INCREASING PWAT VALUES HOVERING AROUND 0.75
INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY AND FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /700MB - 300MB/ MAY
GENERATE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST RUN OF ECMWF HAS HIGHER MOISTURE PAINTED BY
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY BRINGS IN PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AHEAD OF WHEN THE ECMWF DOES. STILL A TOSS UP THIS FAR
OUT...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS REMAIN LARGELY NORTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. SOME VIRGA
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SFC WIND TRENDS...WITH MODELS SUPPORTING A
SWITCH TO N/NW DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BACKING TO A MORE
E/NE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TIMING IN WIND SHIFTS IS LOWER THAN
TYPICAL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SFC WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH ANY OCCASIONAL
STRONGER NORTH GUST ABATING WITH SUNSET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
916 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY THICK OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING THE STATE OF ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. CLEARLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BEGAN
AROUND 3 AM MST AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT OF CLEAR SKIES
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MARCHING
EASTWARD WITH CLEARLY LATER TODAY. THE THICK CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO
TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES. AS SUCH...OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SAW
IMPACTS FROM THE CLOUD LAYERS AS WELL. WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE
NOTED ALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SKY HARBOR RECORDING A LOW OF
68 DEGREES. IF THIS HOLDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE A NEW DAILY
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. MANY LOCATIONS SAW AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN SEVERAL AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM YUMA AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR PHOENIX SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL NOSE OF WARM AIR AROUND 500MB WHERE
THE LAYER WAS COMPLETELY SATURATED AND A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER
BELOW EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE. COMBINED THE VIRGA SHOWERS AND THE
STRONG NOSE OF WARM AIR...TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AT MANY
LOCATIONS SAW JUMP IN DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ASIDE FROM MORNING UPDATES...WHICH SEEMED TO BE PRETTY MINOR...WILL
BE INTERESTED TO SEE MODEL UPDATES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU MAR 12/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH ALL OF
ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE ARE SEEING SOME
LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID CLOUDS...BUT
THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED THIS BAND OF
SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AROUND
15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL EEK INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA FL120...WILL PRODUCE
A LOT OF VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 25
KNOTS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCATIONS
THAT DEVELOP LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME MEASURE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH ALL OF ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID
CLOUDS...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED
THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL EEK INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY
MARCH ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA FL120...WILL PRODUCE
A LOT OF VIRGA WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX METRO. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...FAVORING SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEGINNING
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT
SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 25
KNOTS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TONIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCATIONS
THAT DEVELOP LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME MEASURE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES CLIMB AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A LOT MORE CLOUDINESS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS ONE WEATHER SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN FACT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO STRONG WIND EVENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN LOW...10-15 PERCENT AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE
TRENDING UPWARD WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL REMAIN FAIR TO
GOOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE DESERTS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM
WEATHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH FAIRLY MOIST MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRACK
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH ALL OF ARIZONA WITH THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA RIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WE
ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOSTLY REFLECTING OFF THE MID
CLOUDS...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME AREAS OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HRRR INITIALIZED
THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES FAIRLY WELL AND PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL EEK INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN SLOWLY
MARCH ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INCLUDING FAR
EASTERN GILA COUNTY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ONLY
MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINK THE METRO PHOENIX AREA WILL BE IN
FOR A FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE SUN APPEARS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOW
TO MID 60S COMMONPLACE...SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN DESERTS. WILL SEE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL DELAY THE EXITING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOMEWHAT...BUT ONLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BY ALLOWING FOR LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
AS THE PACIFIC RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. AREA 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REACHING NEAR 582DM FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 80S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOWER 90S APPEARING ACROSS THE DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR
MONDAY WHILE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. AS 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
20C OR EVEN LOWER 20S...WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
AND MIDDLE 90S OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THESE AREN/T QUITE IN
RECORD TERRITORY...BUT GETTING CLOSE.
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS INCREASING FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO IS SHOWN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. COAST. WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE LOW IN MEXICO. MODELS DON/T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE INCREASE SO FAR...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH PLAYS OUT...AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO GO HIGHER THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES. WE SHOULD AT LEAST GET A BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL MANAGE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH CLEARING TO BEGIN ON THU EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW AS
12K FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH EVEN SOME VIRGA...BUT NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FORM SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES THU AFTERNOON AND KPHX AND KIWA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH CLEARING TO BEGIN ON THU AFTERNOON AS
THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SCT-BKN CIGS AS LOW
AS 12K FT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KBLH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT KBLH BY
16Z. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT TRENDING FROM WEST OVERNIGHT TO
NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
GOOD RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...STRONGEST ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY LIGHTER WIND IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO SPREAD OVR THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TO THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
BKN HIGH CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING MVFR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. CHANCE OF
PRECIP...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE RAIN SHOWERS...FOR FRI MORNING
IS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE TAF SITES. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS TO IFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE TO N
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSER
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
940 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL
EXPECTING PRECIP TO SPREAD OVR THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TO THE ERN MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS OVERNIGHT. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP PAST KCOS AROUND 10 AM AND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM NEAR EADS TO KIM BY NOONTIME. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
CIGS WILL LOWER...LIKELY BECOMING MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KCOS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
KALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24H...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSER
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD N-S TROUGH FROM IDAHO DOWN TO S
CALIF. QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING THE TEMPS UP THIS MORNING.
READINGS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING (4 AM) WERE STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS A FEW AREAS...WITH PUEBLO THE COOLEST AT 39. MOST OF THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS WERE STILL IN THE 20S AND 30S. REGIONAL RADARS OVER
THE GREATER COLO REGION WERE INDICATING ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS
WAS LIKELY VIRGA FROM HIGH TO MID LVL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPES.
TODAY...
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONTDVD AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE NSSL 4KM WRF
ALONG WITH NAM AND GFS DATASETS. CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED OFF THIS
INFORMATION. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REALLY DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT (IT ONLY GOES OUT TO 23 UTC
AS OF THIS WRITING).
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YDAY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WORK DOWN THE PLAINS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 60S TO L70S PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ARK RVR MAINLY FROM LA JUNTA EAST TO THE KS
BORDER. 40S AND 50S WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS LATER TODAY WILL OCCUR MAINLY ABOVE TREELINE ALONG THE
CONTDVD. A FEW CG LTG FLASHES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONTDVD...WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE MTNS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION TOWARDS MORNING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD. THE PLAINS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND EXPECT A LOW
OVERCAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT.
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH LOWS REACHING TO ABOUT 40. 20S AND 30S WILL
OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 7 KFT. MODELS DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO WEST OF I-25. FOR NOW HAVE LOW POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 7 KFT...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 9 KFT...WHILE THE
PEAKS WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH INTO MEXICO...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS DO HOLD ON TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE A FEELING THIS WILL
END BY SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH 50S AND 60S...WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A TROUGH PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE
HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. IT THEN DEVELOPS DECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR NOW JUST HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
KCOS AND KPUB...A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP PAST KCOS AROUND 10 AM AND WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM NEAR EADS TO KIM BY NOONTIME. HOWEVER...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
CIGS WILL LOWER...LIKELY BECOMING MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KCOS TOWARDS SUNRISE.
KALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24H...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
946 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD...SOAKING RAIN SATURDAY...PROBABLY
STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ***
945 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS
BRING PRECIP INTO CT AND SW RI 7A-8A THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 11 AM. HOWEVER WHEN COMPARING THE
RAP AND HRRR UPSTREAM ACROSS PA...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW
ADVECTING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE PHILLY
AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT/PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PRECIP TIMING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MODIFY
HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SO THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS THE SAME...A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GREATEST
RISK WEST OF I-495 AND I-90 IN MA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE RISK
DIMINISHES GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
LOWEST WET BULB TEMPS THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY
WITH DEW PTS OF 7 AT ORH AND 6 AT FIT! EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=================================================================
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY TODAY WILL
BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION TOWARD SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS
THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE/SCOUR OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
SPECIFICALLY THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF MA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CUTTING OFF DOWNWARD WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
DISTINCT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE.
THE DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW
QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION YIELDS LIKELY POPS BY 8 AM SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND RI. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF QPF OFFERS 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 8 AM. THUS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN 09Z-14Z
SAT ACROSS NORTHERN CT/NW RI INTO THE I-495 CORRIDOR /POSSIBLY
THE ROUTE-128 CORRIDOR TOO/ AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA. WHILE ANY ICING SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN...ROAD
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.
BASED ON THE RISK FOR LIGHT ICING...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ***
SATURDAY...
BY 15Z OR SO THE RISK OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FINALLY ERODES.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WATER RELEASE FROM THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00
COMBINED WITH SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE URBAN/STREET FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
* BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK
OVERVIEW...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER BY MIDWEEK AS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF /2-3SD BELOW
NORMAL/ SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY AND MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS MON
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE INTO
SNE ON THU WHILE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN COLD AND DRY. GFS DOES NOT
HAVE SUPPORT OF GEFS MEAN SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO ECMWF SO WE
LEANED TOWARD THE COLD AND DRY SCENARIO PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH SFC REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND MAY
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN WITH
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN E MA. MINOR ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN E
MA WITH ISOLD 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NE MA. MILDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...BUT TEMPS COOLING
TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BRINGS A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPS MON...THEN A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FROPA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH ECMWF/UKMET
SLOWER THAN GFS/GGEM. LEANED TOWARD QUICKER GFS GIVEN LOW
AMPLITUDE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONT OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE LEADING
TO DRY AND COLDER WEATHER TUESDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WED
WITH 850 MB TEMPS -20C. MAX TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32F.
DISCOUNTED GFS SOLUTION FOR THU AND FOLLOWED ECMWF/GEFS MEAN WHICH
MAINTAINS COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPS MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. INLAND /BAF-
BDL-ORH/ PRECIP LIKELY -FRZA.
SATURDAY...IFR AND LIFR IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. -FZRA POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 15Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND DURATION OF -FZRA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E MA.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR MON NIGHT IN
RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW GUSTS TO
25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...SSW WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NW WINDS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH G30 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E WATERS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW G35
KT SUN EVENING E MA WATERS.
MONDAY...LEFTOVER SCA GUSTS MON MORNING E WATERS...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WINDS...THEN INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POST FRONTAL NW WINDS. A PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ESPECIALLY E
WATERS WITH SCA GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MAZ016>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MAZ002>015-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
RIZ002>004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO RISE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT THE UPWARD TREN
TO CONTINUE.
630 PM UPDATE...RADAR RETURNS ALREADY MOVING IN TO
CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN MD. BASED ON THIS AND THE LATEST RAP, HAVE
BEGAN POPS ACROSS THE REGION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT
HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND, DEW POINTS ARE QUICKLY
INCREASING, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE HELP OF ON
SHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR FOR VERY LONG, AT LEAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE FALL
LINE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE RAP AND HRRR ON A START
TIME. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE RISING OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF LAV/MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS
USED ON THE TEMPERATURES AND MOST ELEMENTS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RAIN WILL GET HEAVIER AS
WE HEAD TOWARD SUNRISE AND THE WARM FRONT INCHES CLOSER.
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, TEMPERATURES
AROUND 32 MAY PROMOTE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH TRACE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN. THIS IS ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE TO OCCUR. STILL FREEZING RAIN CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ADVISORY FROM 06-10Z
SATURDAY. SOME ADVECTION FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWPACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PUNCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
MODELING CONTINUES TO HOLD STEADY ON QPF FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC AND SREF FOR QPF
TOTALS IN BOTH PERIODS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATER IN
THE DAY. TO KEEP WORDING SIMPLE KEPT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. 925 MB
TEMPS RESPOND NICELY WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY TRY
TO BALANCE THAT. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MET/MAV GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO
THE 50`S. PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AFTER A RAIN EVENT WINDS DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM LATE-DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EMERGES OFF
THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER TO SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WARM
SECTOR EXITS THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP ENDING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE,
WITH LOWS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH, TAKING A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING DOWN
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTING LIFT DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE, A RELATIVELY
QUIET, BUT BREEZY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR CWA AS THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION WITH
RAIN SATURDAY DEPARTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERALL ON
SUNDAY FOR THE REGION WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MID MARCH
AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE POCONOS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH OF
OUR AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT TO SWING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAYTIME MONDAY, WITH THIS FRONT THEN CROSSING OUR REGION INTO
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE OVERALL MIDWEEK PERIOD FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD AND OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST THAT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP TO THE FORECAST
AREA EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. WE
MOSTLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN. RAIN COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SW
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, INCLUDING KILG AND KRDG AS EARLY AS 00Z,
BEFORE SPREADING NE. BY 06Z RAIN LOOKS TO BECOME STEADIER WITH
SOME INTERVALS OF MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LOWER
CEILINGS FURTHER INTO THE IFR RANGE, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LIFR FROM
12-15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER
18Z SATURDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH TIMING COULD CHANGE BY A
HOUR OR TWO GOING FORWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS PRECIP ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS,
GUSTING AT TIMES BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT WAVEHIGHTS AT FIVE FOOT OR LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE COLD WATER TEMPS AND WAVEWATCH BIASES WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUPS DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SCA ATTM. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY, PERHAPS MORE
WESTERLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AN OVERALL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS MAY MARGINALLY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS FOR A TIME. THEN, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INCOMING DATA TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS.
AS CONDITIONS LOOKED MARGINAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SCA HEADLINES, AS GUIDANCE
CAN TEND TO OVER-DO THE SEAS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST INTO LATE-DAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWING A QUICK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AND THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND
LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE HSA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE MILLSTONE
AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...GAINES/KLINE
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As of 18Z, regional radars indicated convective initiation near the
Alabama-Florida border, and from TLH southeast to around CTY in the
Florida Big Bend. This area of low-level moisture flux convergence
arcing from southeast Alabama to the Suwannee River basin is
expected to become more convectively active over the next few hours.
Latest objective RAP analysis shows SBCAPE around 1500 j/kg with
effective deep layer shear of 30-35 knots, which is similar to what
was expected based on a modified 12Z Tallahassee sounding. This
combination of moderate shear and instability should be sufficient
to produce some organized thunderstorms this afternoon, and a severe
storm or two can`t be ruled out. The main threat would be damaging
wind gusts. With increasing low-level forcing between 21Z and 03Z as
a backdoor cold front arrives from the northeast, thunderstorms
should congeal into clusters with time - and this is when organized
cold pools and damaging wind gusts would become more likely, along
with heavy rainfall. Convection should diminish in coverage and
intensity after 03Z and be focused primarily in the northwestern
parts of the forecast area. The remainder of the overnight period
should see low stratus advancing into the area from the east, a
chance of some patchy fog, and continued above normal lows.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday, the upper level pattern will consist of a mid/upper ridge
over California, extending into the Great Basin, and another ridge
over much of the Southeast. Much of the country will be under the
influence of a large, broad trough. Embedded within the trough are
three distinct waves: one over the Northern Plains, one over
western Mexico and the Southwest, and a final one over the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Associated CONUS low
pressure systems at the surface are forecast to be over the Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Through Saturday night, the Mississippi Valley anomalies will
converge on the Northeast. The wave over western Mexico will
continue to drift south and cutoff a low over Mexico Saturday
night. The northern stream trough will move east over the eastern
third of the CONUS and strengthen as the Mississippi Valley waves
merge with another wave diving out of Manitoba/Ontario into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, the wedge of high pressure
along the Eastern Seaboard should hold through Thursday as the
Lower Mississippi Valley low moves essentially due north. As the
surface lows begin to merge Friday night and move east, the wedge
should break down. This will clear a path for the cold front
associated with the now merged frontal system to move through the
Tri-State region Saturday through Saturday night.
An area of light to moderate rain should be expected Friday
morning along the Panhandle coast as remnant forcing from a
surface trough moving off the Peninsula overnight, and veering
flow over relatively cooler shelf waters resulting in sloping
isentropic surfaces combine forces. Much of the shower activity on
Friday however, will be focused along the wedge front remaining in
place across the Tri-State region. Though due to an influx of mid-
level dry air, convection should remain rather shallow. Friday
night through Saturday night will feature a gradual west-to-east
increase in PoPs associated with the passing front. There is
consensus that the front will be weakening along its journey, so
the best chance for rain with the front will be west of a line
from Tallahassee to Albany.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A transition to a drier weather pattern is expected through the
extended range. High temperatures should remain above average, in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Rain chances may increase once again
around mid to late week as a weakening shortwave (remnants of
cutoff over Mexico) approaches from the west.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions are prevailing at our terminals at 18Z, and that
is generally expected through the early evening. Some IFR VIS
restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, with
chances of +SHRA and +TSRA highest between 19Z and 02Z. A cold
front will push into the area from the northeast this evening,
bringing moderate easterly breezes and lowering CIGS. The ceilings
should fall through MVFR range and into LIFR/IFR later tonight.
The low CIGS may persist through much of the morning on Friday.
&&
.Marine...
Moderate south/southeasterly flow will prevail through Saturday.
Behind the front Saturday night/Sunday morning a transition to
light winds and low seas is expected as calm high pressure drops
into the Southeast.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Sufficient low-level moisture is forecast to remain in place over
the next several days, with no fire weather concerns anticipated.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts today through Friday should average around 1".
Localized higher amounts up to 4 inches could be possible across
south Georgia and southeast Alabama. QPF associated with the front
should remain on the order of a half of an inch or less. The
aforementioned isolated higher amounts could have a minor impact
on area rivers should it fall over a basin.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 78 62 78 60 / 50 60 40 50 20
Panama City 65 71 64 69 60 / 30 60 60 60 20
Dothan 59 72 60 78 57 / 70 70 50 50 10
Albany 57 70 57 78 57 / 80 60 50 50 30
Valdosta 62 79 61 79 60 / 50 40 30 50 30
Cross City 66 82 63 80 62 / 30 20 30 30 20
Apalachicola 64 70 63 69 63 / 20 60 50 60 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for South
Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
959 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ATLTAMAHA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED INLAND TOWARDS I-75 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL HAVE
OCNL LIFR TIL AROUND 15Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS
AFT 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SSI WHERE SEAFOG WILL KEEP VLIFR
THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH VCSH AFT 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE SE GA
WATERS UNTIL NOON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 71 61 / 40 40 40 30
SSI 68 58 67 61 / 40 60 30 20
JAX 77 62 77 64 / 50 40 20 20
SGJ 74 63 74 65 / 30 30 10 20
GNV 82 63 81 63 / 60 20 20 20
OCF 84 63 82 64 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
PP/LS/KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
957 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING. BACK DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE ATLTAMAHA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED INLAND TOWARDS I-75 DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONG AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOG PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND WILL HAVE
OCNL LIFR TIL AROUND 15Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS
AFT 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT SSI WHERE SEAFOG WILL KEEP VLIFR
THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR WITH VCSH AFT 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE
SE WATERS UNTIL NOON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 81 59 71 61 / 40 40 40 30
SSI 68 58 67 61 / 40 60 30 20
JAX 77 62 77 64 / 50 40 20 20
SGJ 74 63 74 65 / 30 30 10 20
GNV 82 63 81 63 / 60 20 20 20
OCF 84 63 82 64 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
PP/LS/KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
736 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL SCOUR OUT EARLY SATURDAY AS THE PARENT HIGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
SUNDAY AND DOMINATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE
WORKED TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WERE INITIALLY DRY
THIS MORNING. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HRRR AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE DURING THIS TIME.
AMOUNTS INTO SAT MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK WILL BE IN THE
50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPEND THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONVERGENCE INTO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS. THE NAM AND GFS H85 JET POSITION AND MOISTURE SUPPORT THE
HIGHEST POPS EARLY...BUT HEATING MAY FAVOR THE AFTERNOON. RECENT
MODELS RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SB LI/S FROM -2 TO -3. SB CAPE VALUES FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 35 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER OVERCAST SKIES AND EARLY
STRATIFORM PRECIP MAY HINDER DAYTIME HEATING AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT NW SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM 5
TO 10 KTS AND HIGHS NEAR 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BECOME A WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS POPS RANGE FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEAK
AND RADAR DATA INDICATING VERY LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE MAINLY
IN THE CSRA AT 23Z OTHERWISE NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION BUT CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO FALL. EXPECT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THE CSRA TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDLANDS DURING THE EVENING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY SREF AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE.
RAIN MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z AS MOISTURE
FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
APPROACH FROM GEORGIA. WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK AND FRONTAL FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. CEILINGS
SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST OF
TERMINALS. CHANCE RAIN HIGHEST IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN
NORTH GEORGIA/UPSTATE. AIR MASS BECOMING UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY
EAST MIDLANDS/CSRA. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF ORD/MDW LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOW
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS.
* WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KT SATURDAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
EVENING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
LIFR STRATUS/FOG LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AS EXPECTED. RECENT RUNS OF
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH. STILL APPEARS THAT GYY
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
THINKING IS THAT MDW AND ORD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW CIGS.
RATZER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 00Z...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS AFFECTING THE MIDWEST THIS
EVENING. SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WAS SPREADING
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIFR CIGS AS FAR NORTH AS KDEC-KCMI-KRZL
AT 23Z. DEEPER MOISTURE...AND RAIN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN ALLOWING THE LIFR CIGS
TO CREEP SLOWLY NORTH SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE RAP AND THE HRRR...AS WELL AS WPC TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH
CHICAGO METRO TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. BASED ON
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO QUICK AND
PERHAPS TOO BULLISH IN BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT FAR NORTH...
THOUGH CAN`T IGNORE THIS TREND DEPICTED BY THESE GUIDANCE SETS.
POTENTIAL WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH...SO GYY WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED OF CHI TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY MDW
AND ORD/DPA. HAVE MAINTAINED SLOWER ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS PER
PREVIOUS TAF...AND LIMITED ACTUAL CIGS TO MDW/GYY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT THESE CIGS WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR...AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CIGS FROM
THE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL PUSH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING PRIOR TO MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
WINDS...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...DIRECTION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY VARIABLE IN WEAKER
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. WIND AT TERMINALS HAS MAINLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND
COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KT RANGE
FROM ABOUT 320-350 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR A TIME AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE NO CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THIS SHIFT PRIOR TO 00Z...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GRADIENT COULD
RESULT IN AN EARLIER LAKE-INFLUENCED SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* LOW THAT LIFR CIGS WILL REACH ORD LATE THIS EVENING. MEDIUM-LOW
FOR MDW. HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY SATURDAY.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MAY MIX WITH SNOW BRIEFLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
657 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...
330 PM CDT
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY HAS SPREAD SOME PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...MAINLY BENTON COUNTY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS SOME PCPN TO NRN WISCONSIN AND THE
UP OF MICHIGAN. A STRONG JET STREAM CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP
SO SHUNT THE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THUS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
330 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
LAGS BACK OVER THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS. ALSO...COMPLICATING THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN ALOFT...A CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NWLY...BUT RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE
TREND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER AS A LAKE
BREEZE FORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE WEAKENING WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AS INLAND TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 50S WHILE AIR TEMPS...MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
WHICH IS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S...WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SO...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY...WITH LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S. THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY TRAILS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60F WEST OF I55 AND SOUTH OF
I80...INCLUDING THE GREATER PONTIAC METRO AREA. THE STRENGTHENING
SWLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMER AIR TO REACH UP TO THE
LAKEFRONT...WITH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.
INTO MONDAY...THE LARGER SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SHARP
UPPER RIDGING MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND BUILDING OVER THE WRN
CONUS. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPRESS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT AT THE SFC...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY UNDER SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE MODELS ONLY DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURG THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE IL/WI BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL OCCUR AFTER MAX HEATING
TIME...AND THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALSO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER OVER THE
REGION...QUICKLY TURNING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO MARCH SHOULD PREVENT
CONDITIONS FROM GETTING TOO COLD...BUT HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BACK
IN THE MIDDLE 40S. WHILE THAT IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...IT
WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STEADILY CROSS THE REGION...MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROCEEDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THE THE UPPER GREAT LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...DRAGGING ANOTHER...WEAKER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF COOLER AIR STREAMING
INTO THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN WITH AND
FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
DEVELOPING AMONG THE MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVE
CONFIDENCE LOW IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS IN FOG LATE
THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL AT MDW IS HIGHER THAN ORD.
* WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST-WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KT SATURDAY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
EVENING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS AFFECTING THE MIDWEST THIS
EVENING. SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WAS SPREADING
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AND LIFR CIGS AS FAR NORTH AS KDEC-KCMI-KRZL
AT 23Z. DEEPER MOISTURE...AND RAIN...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HAVE BEEN ALLOWING THE LIFR CIGS
TO CREEP SLOWLY NORTH SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE RAP AND THE HRRR...AS WELL AS WPC TIME-LAGGED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REACH
CHICAGO METRO TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. BASED ON
TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO QUICK AND
PERHAPS TOO BULLISH IN BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT FAR NORTH...
THOUGH CAN`T IGNORE THIS TREND DEPICTED BY THESE GUIDANCE SETS.
POTENTIAL WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH...SO GYY WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED OF CHI TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY MDW
AND ORD/DPA. HAVE MAINTAINED SLOWER ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS PER
PREVIOUS TAF...AND LIMITED ACTUAL CIGS TO MDW/GYY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT THESE CIGS WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR...AND WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF CIGS FROM
THE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WILL PUSH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING PRIOR TO MORNING TRAFFIC INCREASES.
WINDS...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...DIRECTION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY VARIABLE IN WEAKER
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. WIND AT TERMINALS HAS MAINLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
COLD FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND
COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KT RANGE
FROM ABOUT 320-350 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR A TIME AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE NO CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THIS SHIFT PRIOR TO 00Z...GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GRADIENT COULD
RESULT IN AN EARLIER LAKE-INFLUENCED SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW THAT LIFR CIGS WILL REACH ORD LATE THIS EVENING. MEDIUM-LOW
FOR MDW. HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY SATURDAY.
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS...THOUGH LOW IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MAY MIX WITH SNOW BRIEFLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
225 PM CDT
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH
A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LIKELY IN WAKE INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ABATING WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SAME LOW
WILL THEN BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
224 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST TODAY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. AS SUCH EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT BY THE MID MORNING. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING AT ARND 8 KT.
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AT DPA AND GYY THAT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
224 AM CDT
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BECOME EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND A LOW PUSHES EAST OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST BY THE MID MORNING...AND THEN TO SOUTH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASS OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE
RIDGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KT MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
THAT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO 25
KT BEHIND THE LOWS COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PASSES SOUTH OF THE LAKE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...WEAK LAKE BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1241 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
850 PM CDT
THE GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE FOG THREAT CONTINUES TO
LOOK FAR LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS AS DRIER AIR
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND JUST DEEPER MIXING OCCURRED TODAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS WHICH WENT CALM IN WINDS EARLIER HAVE CLOSE T/TD
SPREADS BUT FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE FAVORABLE
LOW-LYING AREAS OR NEAR RIVERS AND INLAND LAKES...AND CANT RULE
OUT SOME OF THAT TO BE LOCALLY DENSE. BUT ANY SHOULD BURN OFF
SPEEDILY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK...WITH COOL LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 20S...WHILE AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 30 IN THE HEART OF THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
323 PM CDT
THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT...MORE SO A DRY FRONT...IS ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WITH JUST SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING
ON THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR MASS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
VALLEY. RAP AND HRRR ARE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED. HAVE KEPT SOME
PATCHY FOG GOING OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND WEAK
UPPER RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AREA
SOUTH AND WEST TO PUSH THE 60 DEGREE MARK...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON AWAY FROM THE METRO AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT SIMILAR
HIGHS TO TODAY ARE EXPECTED. BUT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY KEEPING NEAR LAKE AREAS ON THE ILLINOIS SIDE REMAINING
MUCH COOLER.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE
ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE REGION...BUT THE NORTHERN
STREAM PREVENTS THE ENERGY FROM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST INTO
INDIANA. NAM SUGGESTS SW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT LAKE
COOLING ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD CLOSER TO THE
LAKE...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON LAKE COOLING/SE FLOW MAY KEEP LAKE
COUNTY/NORTHERN COOK AREAS COOLER. AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER WILL
SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
PRECIP LINGERS IN THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EAST AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER DRY AND
SUNNY DAY SATURDAY. STILL THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LOW 50S INLAND BUT LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
DONOFRIO
&&
.LONG TERM...
323 PM CDT
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS GETS
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MONDAY
COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPS ANY LAKE
BREEZE POTENTIAL OUT OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATER MONDAY. A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...BUT NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD LOOKS LOW...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST TODAY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. AS SUCH EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING TO ARND 17 KT BY THE MID MORNING. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING AT ARND 8 KT.
OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG AT DPA AND GYY THAT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST WINDS.
* MONDAY...DRY/VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
203 PM CDT
WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF WINDS OF 15-25
KTS...FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN LAKES
DURING THE LATE THURSDAY-EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
NORTH OF THE LAKES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GUST NEAR 25 KT MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SREF
PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH RAP AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS APPEAR TO
BE HANDLING THIS WELL. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG/PATCHY DENSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTH INDY SUBURBS
NORTHWARD...FROM MIDNIGHT ON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
STILL BE DENSE IN SPOTS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS WITH THIS EXPECTATION
AND WILL UPDATE OTHER PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
ADDITIONALLY...PER HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE BUMPED MIN TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY TWEAKS REQUIRED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. COULD BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT WOULD BE ABOUT IT AS FAR
AS CLOUD COVER.
DON/T THINK THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WAS THIS
MORNING...AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND TONIGHT ADVECTING LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BRING IN POPS STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS APPEAR TO
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BEST LIFT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GIVEN ITS ORIGINS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PROGGED LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ISN/T VERY STRONG...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATERS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF
200% OF NORMAL...THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY
MAY BE TOO COOL. WILL NUDGE UP THE HIGHS A BIT. WILL ALSO LOWER THE
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...DUE TO EXPECTED
RAINFALL. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS OK
AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST WED MAR 11 2015
TRANQUIL PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGHOUT THOUGH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
BEFORE RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL.
HAVE GONE WITH THE BLEND FOR TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES AS THEY APPEARED
IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND MODEL RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 120600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WITH DRY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
MORE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BEING AS BAD AS IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. STILL...CONDITIONS AT LEAST AS POOR AS MVFR SHOULD OCCUR WITH
IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IND AND LAF PER SREF LOW CEILING AND
VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER 13Z...AND EAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS WITH MID AND LOWER
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. WILL NOT INCLUDE
RAIN YET THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE RAIN WILL
REACH THE TERMINALS BY THEN.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...MK/JH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION REMAINED IN BETWEEN TWO JET STREAMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE OVER US.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH, BUT IT WILL
MORE OR LESS ACT LIKE AN ORDINARY WIND SHIFT AS THERE IS NO COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO SPEAK OF REALLY. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT THE
AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY SETTLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUMP INTO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE BY MID-MORNING UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING
OF THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN DOMINATES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE CONUS WHILE A CUT OFF LOW SPINS
OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, SUBSEQUENTLY LEAVING STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AND HIGHLY FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT DEEP
THERMAL MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ONLY POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUE WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL EXIST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150+ KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, LITTLE ELSE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 0 C, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN
THE 40S ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.
WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
MEXICO, EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
NEITHER SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
18Z NAM AND LATEST RAP INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KNOT
RANGE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE. THESE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE 12Z AND
18Z SATURDAY AS THE STRONGER LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX
DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 65 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 34 66 31 76 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 37 64 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 37 65 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 65 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
P28 44 67 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A QUICK AND FAIRLY SIMPLE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SO
FAR THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. AFTER WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT...THERE WAS A COUPLE OF HOUR
PERIOD WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARED THAT PERHAPS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE LULL. THEN...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AS THE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD DUE SOUTH...THERE APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN A CORRESPONDING UP TICK IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER POPS INHERITED FROM THE
DAY SHIFT WERE LEFT INTACT. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 6 OR
7Z WERE ALSO UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS. BASED
ON THE CHANGES MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPS WERE RECALCULATED AS WELL. THIS YIELDED MORE REALISTIC
TEMPERATURE WORDING IN THE ZONES...CALLING FOR ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURE RANGES AS OPPOSED TO SAYING THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE OVERALL. THE NEW ZONES WERE RECENTLY SENT OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE VARIED FROM IFR AT SME
TO VFR AT JKL. ALL THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING OVERCAST CIGS
AND RAIN. IN THE PAST HALF AN HOUR...THE MAIN BODY OF RAIN HAS
PUSHED NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND IS NOW AFFECTING
JKL...SYM...AND SJS. LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOULD SET BACK IN AT
LOZ AND SME BY 4Z OR SO. JKL...SJS...AND SYM WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN...BUT NOT AS LONG AS AT LOZ AND SME.
IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND STEADY OUT A BIT MORE...WITH 1 TO
1.5K CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TAP.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
747 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES AT TAF ISSUANCE VARIED FROM IFR AT SME
TO VFR AT JKL. ALL THE TAF SITES WERE EXPERIENCING OVERCAST CIGS
AND RAIN. IN THE PAST HALF AN HOUR...THE MAIN BODY OF RAIN HAS
PUSHED NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND IS NOW AFFECTING
JKL...SYM...AND SJS. LOZ AND SME WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOULD SET BACK IN AT
LOZ AND SME BY 4Z OR SO. JKL...SJS...AND SYM WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN...BUT NOT AS LONG AS AT LOZ AND SME.
IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST FOR THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND STEADY OUT A BIT MORE...WITH 1 TO
1.5K CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TAP.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
151 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CIGS WILL DECREASE ON FRI MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND KSAW AROUND THE END OF THE TAF TIME...BUT WAS
LOW PROBABILITY SO LEFT IT OUT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS EVENING AS
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF THE
AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS ABV FREEZING
ADVECT OVER SNOW COVERED GROUND GENERATING STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED
OVER FAR ERN UPPER MI WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM THE PLAINS LOW
WAS WORKING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA INCREASING
SE WINDS THERE AND HELPING TO DIRECT WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION.
TODAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA AHEAD
OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST HALF IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S WITH EVEN LOWER 50S FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA MID CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY THIN OUT SCNTRL AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
TONIGHT...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
APPROACHING THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT. DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INDICATES BEST LIFT WILL GENERALLY STAY NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EAST ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO SOME MODEST INCREASE IN Q-
VECT CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER THERE COULD BE SOME LGT PRECIP...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN FCST AREA AND THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST
MOISTENING/LIFT FM 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS REALIZED. INCLUDED
BRIEF CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST AS SFC WARMING FM FRONT WILL LAG
WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO
FREEZING AT 12Z AROUND TIME LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL CONTINUE TO
DOWNPLAY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IN HWO AS PRECIP CHANCES OVERALL
ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY AND OCCURRENCE WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE FREEZING MARK EAST TO THE
MID 40S FOR DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER
MINNESOTA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...PASSING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FORCING TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS ARE WELL ABOVE 0C TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE
EAST OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE
U.P. THE COMBINATION OF A COOLING ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ALONG WITH CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIX LATE FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DELTA T WILL BE AROUND -6C
TO -10C...WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH
ADDED FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS THIS HAPPENS...A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...PLACING THE U.P. IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS...ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST WITH FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/EC DIFFER ON STRENGTH...TIMING AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS A BIT SLOWER. AT THIS POINT TEND TO FAVOR THE
EC AS IT MAINTAINS MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WITH THE 18Z
GFS MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE EC. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED...IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PASSES OVER NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS COULD EASILY
GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
IS A BIT MORE TRICKY THOUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MUCH OF THE
ATMPOSHPERIC PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE 0C. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS CAA KICKS IN AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
-15C TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT. KEPT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS CONTINUED
ICE COVER AND WIND FIELD DIFFERENCES LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE TO
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SEEING LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT
WOULD BE OVER NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED... LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS MUCH OF THE U.P. REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT
THE SAME TIME A VERY DRY SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING AND END TO THE PRECIP...WHILE THE
EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA LONGER ALLOWING CONTINUED CHANCE
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT HAVE GONE
WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRING WEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
126 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA RESULTING IN NW
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNFICANT
SHRTWVS WERE NOTED UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
THE CWA AHEAD OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO THE THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER UPSTREAM...SRLY WINDS WERE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THE NRN
ROCKIES SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MIN TEMPS SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER INLAND CENTRAL AND ERN
LOCATIONS. THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WARMER AS THE CLOUDS
AND INCREASED SRLY FLOW SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NRN ONTARIO...LEAVING
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN
COOLING OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...DOWNSTREAM FROM FLOW OFF OF
LAKE MI. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPPER 30S TO LWER 40S.
FROM MQT-MNM WESTWARD TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 OVER THE FAR WEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
WNW FLOW ALOFT SHARPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER UPPER
GREAT LAKES AS JET STREAK DIGS FM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH IMPACTS MOSTLY NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH H85-H7/H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE WARM FRONT EAST
ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. DUE TO THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION MAINLY IN THE H9-H8 LAYER COULD SEE LGT PRECIP. INCLUDED
CHANCE OF FZRA OVER FAR EAST CWA AS SOUNDINGS POINT TO POSSIBILITY
AS SFC WARMING LAGS WARMING ALOFT. MOS GUIDANCE AND EVEN RAW MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST TEMPS AT KERY NEAR OR JUST BLO FREEZING AT 12Z AFTER
LGT RAIN WOULD START. WILL NOT HIT THIS UP TOO HARD THOUGH AS PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL ARE ON THE LOW SIDE ANYWAY. CLOUDS MAY DECREASE BY
FRIDAY AFTN WHICH WITH SW WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE UP WELL
INTO THE 50S. RAISED TEMPS FOR AT LEAST WEST HALF. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLEARING...COULD SEE REPEAT OF TUESDAY AFTN WITH TEMPS
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY WHILE DEEPENING BY TIME IT REACHES EAST OF SAULT STE MARIE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT IS SHOWN BY ECMWF/NAM AND GEM TO TRACK MAINLY OVER EASTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPR MICHIGAN. 12Z GFS FAVORS WESTERN TRACK
WHICH BRINGS MORE PRECIP OVER MUCH OF CWA. ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES
EAST OF AREA...COLDER AIR ADVECTION BLO H7 WOULD SWITCH ANY RAIN
QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...MORE FZRA COULD ALSO OCCUR AS
COLDER AIR FIRST ARRIVES BLO H9 WHILE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN ABOVE 0C.
GIVEN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EVEN THE FARTHER EAST NAM
AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIP IN THAT CASE WOULD BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW UPR MICHIGAN
WHERE NW WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFTING. CHANCES HERE APPEAR EVEN
LESS THAN THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THAT IS UNLESS THE 12Z
GFS IS CORRECT WITH ITS WETTER SOLUTION. STRONG NW WINDS IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THOUGH IT COULD
PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S OVER SCNTRL WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE
SNOW ON GROUND IS LIMITED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
REST OF EXTENDED FEATURES STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES IT
COULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH H85 TEMPS OVER 10C THROUGH 18Z. GFS
MUCH COLDER THOUGH. USED CONSENSUS AND BUMPED UP OVER SCNTRL BUT
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH SPEED OF FROPA AND
THUS THE MAX TEMPS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER EAST HALF
WITH MAINLY RAIN UNTIL SUB -10C TEMPS AT H85 CRASH IN ON MONDAY
NIGHT CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. SOME OPEN WATER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR
SO GIVEN LINGERING H85 MOISTURE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN BELOW -15C MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE CARRIED AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR LK EFFECT
IN NW FLOW AREAS FM NCNTRL CWA INTO THE EAST CWA. OTHER BIG STORY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. INCREASED THESE
OVER CONSENSUS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED THOUGH IF WINDS MAY EVEN END UP STRONGER GIVEN THE SHARP
CONTRAST OF THE AIRMASSES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUB 995MB LOW TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY WHILE STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP WITH THE COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LES FOR NW FLOW AREAS. H85
TEMPS FM 12Z ECMWF ARE DOWN TO -20C ON TUESDAY. GFS MUCH MORE
MODERATE WITH ONLY -10C THOUGH SO WILL KEEP WITH CONSENSUS AS MODELS
ARE NOT TOO CONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS LINGERS DESPITE HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF
THE AREA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW PRES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY S WINDS TODAY AT KIWD AND
ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25KT OR SO. AS SFC
WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015
W-NW WINDS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SE WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY WELL BLO GALE FORCE...PROBABLY
NO MORE THAN 20-25 KNOTS OVER ERN HALF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER THE AREA. NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT
AREAS OF OPEN WATER ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK
SUPERIOR AND OVER SNCTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO THE
STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO AS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1103 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...ANOTHER CLOUDY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW SPINNING OFFSHORE NEAR
HOUSTON TEXAS. A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS HELPING GENERATE SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE...THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE NORTH INTO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BUT GENERALLY WE ARE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 11AM ARE IN THE
60S AREAWIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S BEING PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AS THE SFC LOW
MAKES ITS SLOW TRACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THAT THIS WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE CUT BACK SOME ON POPS FOR EARLIER TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS TRENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD...DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER...CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 70S. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND THE BETTER TIME PERIOD FOR THIS CONTINUES TO
BE IN THE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. ONLY OTHER UPDATES WERE
MINOR HOURLY TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...VARYING CEILINGS HEIGHTS ARE RESULTING IN A MIX OF
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. A BOUT OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY RAIN COULD
ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIME.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED TO IFR/LIFR STATUSES WHERE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS OBSERVED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT FOCUSING IN ON TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS NARROWING TO TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
AS FOR TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW THE PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. THE LATEST HI-RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUID HAS OFFERED A MIXED BAG OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NMM/ARW BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HRRR MATCHES THE
GFS/EURO/GEM WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DESPITE
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOLID MOISTURE ADV MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. WHAT`S A MAJOR PLAYER FOR LATER TODAY IS THE
LARGE COMPLEX OFF THE SE LA COAST THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE MODELS I
MENTIONED HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND KEEP IT MORE OVER
S/SE LA FOR TODAY. THIS FITS WITH HOW THE UPPER JET IS SITUATED FOR
TODAY AS MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET. IT WON`T
BE UNTIL LATER THIS EVE WHEN THE JET ADJUSTS ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER DIV ALOFT TO SHIFT OVER OUR REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADV WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME EXPANSION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO
THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
TAPPING VERY HIGH PWS (1.8-1.9 IN) AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING SITUATION. THE
SETUP SUPPORTS A SIG HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT...BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THIS(THE WORST) WILL BE LOCATED IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW...I FEEL
THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL COVER PARTS OF OUR CWA TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WHERE THE CURRENT WATCH EXISTS. WHILE TIMING COULD BE PUSHED
BACK MORE INTO TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS FOR CONSISTENCY.
CONCERNING ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AN OUTLOOK. MUCH OF
THIS HAS TO DO WITH HOW THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROB
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE PEAK HEATING IS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE JET ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST
SEEM NOT TO BE ALIGNED PROPERLY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF
OVERALL QPF/CONVECTION IN THE HRRR/GFS/GEM/EURO.
AS WE GO INTO FRI...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE
OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS THE FINAL S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ALL OF THE PRECIP TO EXIT TO OUR E/NE BY EARLY EVENING. /CME/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE DAMP PATTERN BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A LARGE CHUNK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PHASE WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW
THE PERISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL TO SHIFT
WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SHUNTED
WEST BACK TOWARD THE BAJA REGION.
WITH A RETURN TO MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
DIURNAL RANGES MORE TYPICAL OF MID MARCH. THE PESKY BAJA LOW LOOKS
TO FINALLY BEGIN LIFTING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS A GENERAL TROFFINESS
ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT
AS WEAKENING WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO PHASING SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DECENT WAVE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW THIS SYTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 64 71 55 / 79 98 100 29
MERIDIAN 76 63 70 57 / 73 96 100 43
VICKSBURG 73 64 73 54 / 89 98 87 25
HATTIESBURG 76 64 75 57 / 77 98 100 28
NATCHEZ 73 63 72 53 / 86 98 80 18
GREENVILLE 68 64 71 55 / 88 96 91 31
GREENWOOD 72 65 71 56 / 79 95 100 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
034>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
359 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT FOCUSING IN ON TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...
.SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS NARROWING TO TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
AS FOR TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW THE PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. THE LATEST HI-RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUID HAS OFFERED A MIXED BAG OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NMM/ARW BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HRRR MATCHES THE
GFS/EURO/GEM WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. DESPITE
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOLID MOISTURE ADV MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. WHAT`S A MAJOR PLAYER FOR LATER TODAY IS THE
LARGE COMPLEX OFF THE SE LA COAST THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE MODELS I
MENTIONED HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND KEEP IT MORE OVER
S/SE LA FOR TODAY. THIS FITS WITH HOW THE UPPER JET IS SITUATED FOR
TODAY AS MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE JET. IT WON`T
BE UNTIL LATER THIS EVE WHEN THE JET ADJUSTS ITS OVERALL ORIENTATION
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER DIV ALOFT TO SHIFT OVER OUR REGION. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADV WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME EXPANSION AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO
THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
TAPPING VERY HIGH PWS (1.8-1.9 IN) AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE CORFIDI VECTORS
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING SITUATION. THE
SETUP SUPPORTS A SIG HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT...BUT NAILING DOWN
WHERE THIS(THE WORST) WILL BE LOCATED IS TOUGH. RIGHT NOW...I FEEL
THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL COVER PARTS OF OUR CWA TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WHERE THE CURRENT WATCH EXISTS. WHILE TIMING COULD BE PUSHED
BACK MORE INTO TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS FOR CONSISTENCY.
CONCERNING ANY STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CAN`T BE RULED
OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AN OUTLOOK. MUCH OF
THIS HAS TO DO WITH HOW THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROB
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHILE PEAK HEATING IS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE JET ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST
SEEM NOT TO BE ALIGNED PROPERLY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LACK OF
OVERALL QPF/CONVECTION IN THE HRRR/GFS/GEM/EURO.
AS WE GO INTO FRI...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE
OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY AS THE FINAL S/WV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR ALL OF THE PRECIP TO EXIT TO OUR E/NE BY EARLY EVENING. /CME/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE DAMP PATTERN BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. A LARGE CHUNK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM OVER OLD MEXICO
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PHASE WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW
THE PERISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL TO SHIFT
WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SHUNTED
WEST BACK TOWARD THE BAJA REGION.
WITH A RETURN TO MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE FIRST OF
THE WEEK...A DRIER PATTERN WILL BE ALLOWED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
DIURNAL RANGES MORE TYPICAL OF MID MARCH. THE PESKY BAJA LOW LOOKS
TO FINALLY BEGIN LIFTING OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS A GENERAL TROFFINESS
ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT
AS WEAKENING WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO PHASING SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DECENT WAVE AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW THIS SYTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK./26/
&&
.AVIATION...A COMBINATION OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS IS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOK FOR SIMILAR TRENDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING WITH MORE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W
HALF. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/SE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS TRENDING TO MVFR/VFR AS TEMPS WARM. TIMING
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE VERY TOUGH AS WHAT LOOKS TO OCCUR WILL BE SCT
IN NATURE...BUT MOVING NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/RA/TSRA TO DEVELOP FROM AFTER 22-02Z. /CME/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 75 64 71 55 / 79 98 100 29
MERIDIAN 77 63 70 57 / 77 96 100 43
VICKSBURG 74 64 73 54 / 89 98 87 25
HATTIESBURG 76 64 75 57 / 77 98 100 28
NATCHEZ 73 63 72 53 / 86 98 80 18
GREENVILLE 69 64 71 55 / 88 96 91 31
GREENWOOD 73 65 71 56 / 79 95 100 36
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>043-047>049-
053>055-059>064-072>074.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
CME/26/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
325 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH PASSED
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA EARLIER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. WITH SUCH A DRY SURFACE LAYER...DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AS THIS
CONVECTION IS SHOWING UP ON THE HRRR MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...MOST OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
UNDER THIS RIDGE. LATER ON SATURDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIP AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS HAVE HONED IN A BIT MORE WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC AS IT
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. THE GFS HIT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WELL WITH QPF AND WAS A COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AND GET A STRONGER WORD OUT BY FRIDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. AN ISOLATED ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY SW PHILLIPS AS IT MAY BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MONTANA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH THE ECMWF TIMES IT FOR SUNDAY DURING THE DAY
AND THE GFS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING
DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SUNDAYS HIGHS. WILL SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR NOW. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD TURN INTO SNOW
SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON A TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS CURRENTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BROADBRUSH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR.
CLOUDS: FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
WINDS: THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
AND REMAIN LIGHT FRIDAY. TFJ
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BIG MUDDY CREEK HAS CONTINUED TO RISE SINCE EARLY THIS WEEK AS
RECENT SNOW MELT AND GROUND THAW HAS RELEASED THE SPRING SURFACE
FLOW. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...STAFF FROM THE GLASGOW NWS OFFICE
MEASURED THE CREEK LEVEL NEAR ANTELOPE AT 11.57 FEET. FLOOD STAGE
IS 12.0 FEET. SOME ADDITIONAL RISE IS STILL POSSIBLE LEADING INTO
THIS WEEKEND. NOT SURE WHERE THE CREEK WILL CREST AT THIS POINT. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS
AREA.
SNOW MELT HAS ALSO BROUGHT RISING WATER TO FRENCHMAN CREEK AND
POPLAR RIVER. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ICE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING UP ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER
BETWEEN TERRY AND GLENDIVE. A SMALL ICE JAM HAS BEEN REPORTED IN A
BEND OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN GLENDIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RISES AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
RIVER FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE ICE JAMS AND RESULTANT FLOODING.
FORRESTER/BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHERIDAN.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE WESTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY BELOW GAPS
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING ABQ. GUSTS NEAR 35KT
POSSIBLE. MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGH SOME RAIN MAY REACH THE GROUND. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THE VIRGA. NO TS HAVE BEEN NOTED SO FAR
TODAY...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM KGUP TAF FOR NOW. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC
OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN
REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE
THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY.
THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C.
DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW
IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP
TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR
NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME
LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL
IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY
LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE
STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT
THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD
FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT
BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1017 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS OF THE
01Z. LIGHT RAIN LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH
A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. UPPER AIR ANALYSES
SHOW WARM MOIST AIR AT H7 AND H85 ADVECTING INTO THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH IS OVERRUNNING THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVING RISEN APPROX 5-10 DEGREES IN THE NW OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS THERE TO DROP ANY FURTHER.
AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY HOLD STEADY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNRISE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION AGAIN BY SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NW TO MID 50S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE HI-RES MODELS)
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH
TOWARD SUNSET. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A WEAKER BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BETWEEN 22Z-03Z (NORTH TO SOUTH). INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON... DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60... MODELS INDICATING CAPE AT 100-200 J/KG AT BEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5
C/KM. 50 KT SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND THREAT IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS... AND WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUDS... IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S... AS WE
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR THE
POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT... OTHERWISE THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 NW... AND 50S EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MILD EARLY SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES BACK
TO OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 60S (63-68)... WHICH IS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 MONDAY... THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MANY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... LED BY THE CANADIAN 1030 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVERHEAD OF NC BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 55-60 RANGE
EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
LATE NEXT WEEK... THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC... WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THEREFORE... A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION WITH LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST... AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS / RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING (BUT SLOW MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST TEXAS UPPER
LOW). THEREFORE... CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
UPPER LOW SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP THE POP LOW AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DETAIL AND AGREEMENT FOR SPECIFICS
THU-FRI. WE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE THEN
CHANCE CATEGORY BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY AROUND THE TRIAD AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING OF CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO IFR...AND
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS GREATEST TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
EARLIER TONIGHT RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TOWARD KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI...THE LATEST...18Z...GFS HAS TRENDED
LATER...CLOSER TO 12Z...WITH THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS RUN. THIS IS SIMILAR TO EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF
AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE 00Z VALID TAFS. WINDS VEER
QUICKLY ALOFT BUT THE CHANGE IN SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT
APPEAR BELOW LLWS CRITERIA BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND GFS
GUIDANCE. STILL...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST SURFACE WIND OVERNIGHT VEERING QUICKLY TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE FIRST 3K FEET ALOFT.
AT THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A DRY SLOT MAY BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE SHUNTING OF
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MIXING
MAY RESULT IN MODEST BREEZES AND SOUTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 20S KTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE...WITH MVFR-TO-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE
TRUE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
MODEL ALLUDES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN A
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH/BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM FRIDAY...
SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA... AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM
THEIR CURRENT READINGS OVERNIGHT IN INCREASING SE TO SLY FLOW... AND
CONTINUING CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE HI-RES MODELS)
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH
TOWARD SUNSET. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A WEAKER BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT BETWEEN 22Z-03Z (NORTH TO SOUTH). INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON... DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60... MODELS INDICATING CAPE AT 100-200 J/KG AT BEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5
C/KM. 50 KT SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND THREAT IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS... AND WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUDS... IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S... AS WE
SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR THE
POTENTIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT... OTHERWISE THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO RESIDUAL
CLOUDINESS AND MIXING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 NW... AND 50S EAST AND SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MILD EARLY SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES BACK
TO OUR REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 60S (63-68)... WHICH IS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AFTER CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 MONDAY... THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR MANY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... LED BY THE CANADIAN 1030 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVERHEAD OF NC BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 55-60 RANGE
EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S.
LATE NEXT WEEK... THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC... WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO TEXAS. THEREFORE... A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION WITH LOW LEVEL CHILLY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
COAST... AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS / RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING (BUT SLOW MOVING AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST TEXAS UPPER
LOW). THEREFORE... CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
UPPER LOW SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO KEEP THE POP LOW AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DETAIL AND AGREEMENT FOR SPECIFICS
THU-FRI. WE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POP INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE THEN
CHANCE CATEGORY BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...
MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY AROUND THE TRIAD AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING OF CEILINGS DETERIORATING TO IFR...AND
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS GREATEST TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
EARLIER TONIGHT RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TOWARD KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI...THE LATEST...18Z...GFS HAS TRENDED
LATER...CLOSER TO 12Z...WITH THE ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS RUN. THIS IS SIMILAR TO EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HRRR WRF
AND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE 00Z VALID TAFS. WINDS VEER
QUICKLY ALOFT BUT THE CHANGE IN SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT
APPEAR BELOW LLWS CRITERIA BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM AND GFS
GUIDANCE. STILL...AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST SURFACE WIND OVERNIGHT VEERING QUICKLY TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE FIRST 3K FEET ALOFT.
AT THE END OF THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A DRY SLOT MAY BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE SHUNTING OF
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...MIXING
MAY RESULT IN MODEST BREEZES AND SOUTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 20S KTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE...WITH MVFR-TO-VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE
TRUE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
MODEL ALLUDES TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN A
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH/BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
934 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS IT
LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH. AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK...BUT A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MHX...CHS...AND
GSO ALL SHOW THE BULK OF THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE WAS TOO COLD WITH
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE 09Z AND 12Z RUC LOOKED PRETTY GOOD WHEN MATCHED WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND IS THE BASIS FOR THIS MORNING`S UPDATE. I HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH 65-70 DEGREES NOW FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS QUITE THIN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD ONLY HAVE A MILD IMPACT ON FILTERING
INSOLATION TODAY.
OTHERWISE...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY AIR IS ARRIVING FROM
FAR-EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S. THIS DRIER (BUT NOT TREMENDOUSLY CHILLIER) AIRMASS SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING THE BETTER
MOISTURE ALOFT. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A 1036 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES
AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE STABILIZING AND THEN RISING A FEW DEGREES.
THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
WORK FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE RISK FOR RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
THIS MORNING AND THEN THE SOUTHERNMOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE LAYER OF
SATURATION NARROWING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRIGHTEN FOR
A TIME. DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE RECORD HIGHS OF
WED. STILL...NOT ATYPICAL FOR MID MARCH AND CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE BEACHES WILL BE COOLEST DUE TO A
DEVELOPING NORTHEAST RESULTANT BRINGING MARINE INFLUENCES ONTO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
A RATHER BREEZY DAY WITH NE TO ENE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST TWO-THIRDS OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS FRI MORNING APPROACHES.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING AS
THE WEDGE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL
HELP TO LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE TROUGH AND ATOP THE
COOLER AND MORE DENSE AIRMASS. WILL SHOW SMALL POPS RETURNING...
GENERALLY FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT A RATHER
LARGE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT EVEN THROUGH THERE WILL BE NO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWER 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER 40S MORE COMMON ACROSS
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN LATE FRI AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM WESTERN GULF
COAST. THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY FRI
BECOMING MORE ON SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SE TO S LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING AS WARM
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS INLAND AND NORTH. ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR
WILL REMAIN AT THE SFC...A DEEPER SW FLOW BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGH TO THE NW WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY PCP BY LATE FRI. THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN INLAND WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME
LATE FRI AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH. SHALLOW
COOLER AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRI BELOW NORMAL BUT TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AFTER COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY EXPECT PCP TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
CONVECTIVE NATURE IN WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. PCP SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH COLUMN BEGINNING TO DRY
OUT BY SUN MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER AS UPPER
TROUGH...STILL BACK TO THE WEST...WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN BEHIND
COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL HOLD BACK
THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING A DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE WARMER
TEMPS SUN AFTN. EXPECT READINGS UP CLOSER TO 70. ONCE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT EXPECT A DEEPER COOLER
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPS FALLING DOWN INTO THE 40S. CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD MON AFTN AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH TUES AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MORE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MON NIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOWS BELOW
40 IN SPOTS BUT TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOWARD 70 TUES AFTN IN BRIGHT
MARCH SUNSHINE. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUES NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW ON WED. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS TUES NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPS FOR WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MID-LEVEL CIGS ARE OCCURRING WITH ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY FROM KFLO-KMYR SOUTH. MID LEVEL CIGS ARE CLEARING SLOWLY
FROM N-S TOWARDS KILM/KLBT.
IFR STRATUS ABOUT 800 FEET IS MOVING SW TOWARDS KILM EARLY THIS
MORNING BEHIND A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THIS IS QUICK MOVING AND PATCHY. TEMPO IFR APPEARS
LIKELY AT KILM UNTIL 14Z AND KCRE/KMYR POTENTIALLY UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. -RA POTENTIAL WILL BE BEST FROM KFLO TO
KCRE/KMYR THIS MORNING BUT IT WILL BE IN THE DISSIPATING STAGE.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NE THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD....BUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS TODAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF VALID PERIOD THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR/RAIN DEVELOPING
FRI PERSISTING INTO SAT. VFR DEVELOPING SUN AND PERSISTING INTO TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM THURSDAY...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TIGHTENS UP OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OBSERVED WINDS UP TOWARD CAPES LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS DEVELOPING HERE OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTED AT 2-3
FEET...THESE VALUES SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO WINDS. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING NEAR-TERM
UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS...
A NE SURGE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UP TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT. NE WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVE ARE EXPECTED TO
BACK TO ENE LATE AT NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN INLAND AND A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG
THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING...REACHING 6 TO 9 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY FRI NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE
GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
THROUGH FRI AFTN AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD BU THE ON SHORE PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS UP BETWEEN 3 TO 6
FT. MAY SEE SEAS INCREASE JUST ENOUGH TO HAVE SCA CONDITIONS IN
OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FRI NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
VEER TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS. THE OFF SHORE LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP
OFF BEHIND IT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
PINCHED GRADIENT AND NORTH WINDS RISING TO 15-20 KTS...BEFORE
EASING LATE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NW FLOW SUNDAY WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST SEAS OFF SHORE. SEAS SUNDAY WILL FALL TO 2-4 FT
WITH A NW WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT...AND THEN FALL FURTHER MONDAY TO
1-3 FT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
735 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY... AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS HOUR IS CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH IS
A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR AND THE ARW VERSION OF THE WRF IN MOVING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT...CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WITH IT ARE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH UPPER 50S AND 60S STILL REMAIN. IN THIS
WARMER...WETTER AREA EXPECT TO HAVE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK OR JUST BEFORE. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DAMMING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE AND I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT IS HARD TO DISAGREE WITH THAT
AS WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT INSOLATION WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NE TO SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AND WILL BE PLENTY
STRONG ENOUGH TO START TO DEVELOP A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE SW FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND PROBABLY EVERYWHERE BY 00Z. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT SETUP OF THE WEDGE FRONT BUT EXPECT A
TRADITIONAL CAD DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES WITH MID 40S IN THE
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONE FACTOR IN HOW THE CAD
EVOLVES IS THAT THE HIGH LOOKS VERY TRANSITORY AT THIS POINT AND THE
HYBRID CAD WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN IN-SITU CAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY HELP TO
BLOW THE CAD OUT QUICKER THAN USUAL. AS A RESULT...LOWS ARE NOT THAT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 40S IN
THE TRIAD WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -ELLIS
SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNING... LEAVING A MESOHIGH (SIGNIFYING THE
RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL) WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY EARLY SAT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH THE NAM MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
STRONGER/DEEPER SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER LASTING LONGER INTO THE
DAY. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SWRLY 850 MB JET ACROSS VA/NC SAT AND
RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL STABILITY VIA DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE
VERTICAL... AND WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE
STABLE POOL QUICKLY... WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER DISSOLUTION OF
THIS AIR MASS. IN THE ERN CWA HOWEVER... EXPECT A THINNER AND MORE
VULNERABLE STABLE LAYER WITH QUICKER EROSION. APART FROM THIS
MESOSCALE RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY... THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NW... WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT THE GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE TO BE ALONG
OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS... CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO THE
PATH OF WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY CENTERS. WE SHOULD SEE A SECONDARY
AREA OF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA... WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AROUND 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE SAT
AFTERNOON... AND AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE... BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION LAYER
ALOFT (ABOVE -10C). WILL ORIENT THE POPS IN THIS FASHION... BEST
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO ALONG/EAST OF I-95. STILL EXPECT
A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA... FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NW
TO MID 70S SE... WHICH IS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE SE
AND AROUND 3-5 DEG UNDER GUIDANCE MEAN IN THE FAR NW. CERTAINLY IF
THE WEDGE REGIME DOES BREAK EARLIER IN THE DAY IN THE TRIAD... TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY... SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TREND TOWARD NO POPS SAT NIGHT... AS THE TAIL OF THE 850 MB JET
DEPARTS -- YIELDING A MORE WNW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE -- AND THE
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH... WHILE
LOSS OF HEATING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE ERN CWA. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO SE INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN AND NE NC LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING... NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S... WITH THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE
MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE NOW-BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NEW ENGLAND (THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER
THAN THE GFS) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUN... AND WITH A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN... EXPECT FAIR SKIES.
THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...
IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WSW SUN NIGHT
AS ENERGY STREAMS OUT OF CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR MON-WED: LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY-MID WEEK. A
VORTICITY LOBE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND NE NC EARLY
MON... POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO OUR NE CWA... BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. A PIECE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BREAKS OFF OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC LATE MON BEFORE SETTLING
TO OUR SOUTH BY TUE... AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TUE/WED. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH THIS
FRONT... MAINLY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW STAYING PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST OR NW... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON SHOULD REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... THEN DIP BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL POST-FRONT WED AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW WITH A RETURN TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE WIND GUSTS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT NEAR 10 KTS OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.
LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WEEKEND THAT MOISTURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
248 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY... AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS HOUR IS CONFINED TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHICH IS
A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB...ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR AND THE ARW VERSION OF THE WRF IN MOVING PRECIPITATION OUT
OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT...CLOUD COVER WILL FOLLOW AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPILLS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WITH IT ARE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST THOUGH UPPER 50S AND 60S STILL REMAIN. IN THIS
WARMER...WETTER AREA EXPECT TO HAVE SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK OR JUST BEFORE. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING VERY DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN WITH MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOW TO MOVE INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
DAMMING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE AND I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT IS HARD TO DISAGREE WITH THAT
AS WE SHOULD HAVE DECENT INSOLATION WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS...SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NE TO SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT AND WILL BE PLENTY
STRONG ENOUGH TO START TO DEVELOP A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE SW FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND PROBABLY EVERYWHERE BY 00Z. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF QPF EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT SETUP OF THE WEDGE FRONT BUT EXPECT A
TRADITIONAL CAD DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURES WITH MID 40S IN THE
TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ONE FACTOR IN HOW THE CAD
EVOLVES IS THAT THE HIGH LOOKS VERY TRANSITORY AT THIS POINT AND THE
HYBRID CAD WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN IN-SITU CAD BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY HELP TO
BLOW THE CAD OUT QUICKER THAN USUAL. AS A RESULT...LOWS ARE NOT THAT
MUCH LOWER THAN THE HIGHS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 40S IN
THE TRIAD WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. -ELLIS
SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE BY SAT MORNING... LEAVING A MESOHIGH (SIGNIFYING THE
RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL) WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR LIKELY EARLY SAT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE PIEDMONT... WITH THE NAM MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
STRONGER/DEEPER SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER LASTING LONGER INTO THE
DAY. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A SWRLY 850 MB JET ACROSS VA/NC SAT AND
RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HELPING TO REINFORCE THE LOW
LEVEL STABILITY VIA DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE
VERTICAL... AND WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE
STABLE POOL QUICKLY... WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SLOWER DISSOLUTION OF
THIS AIR MASS. IN THE ERN CWA HOWEVER... EXPECT A THINNER AND MORE
VULNERABLE STABLE LAYER WITH QUICKER EROSION. APART FROM THIS
MESOSCALE RESIDUAL WEDGE BOUNDARY... THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
HOLD JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NW... WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT THE GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE TO BE ALONG
OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS... CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TO THE
PATH OF WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY CENTERS. WE SHOULD SEE A SECONDARY
AREA OF DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA... WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AROUND 500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE SAT
AFTERNOON... AND AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE... BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CURRENT
INDICATIONS OF LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE LIGHTNING PRODUCTION LAYER
ALOFT (ABOVE -10C). WILL ORIENT THE POPS IN THIS FASHION... BEST
CHANCES OVER THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO ALONG/EAST OF I-95. STILL EXPECT
A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA... FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NW
TO MID 70S SE... WHICH IS CLOSE TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE SE
AND AROUND 3-5 DEG UNDER GUIDANCE MEAN IN THE FAR NW. CERTAINLY IF
THE WEDGE REGIME DOES BREAK EARLIER IN THE DAY IN THE TRIAD... TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER BY AT LEAST A CATEGORY... SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
TREND TOWARD NO POPS SAT NIGHT... AS THE TAIL OF THE 850 MB JET
DEPARTS -- YIELDING A MORE WNW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE -- AND THE
MID LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH... WHILE
LOSS OF HEATING WILL REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE ERN CWA. THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX ACROSS SRN ONTARIO SE INTO THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT WILL HELP PROPEL THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NRN AND NE NC LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING... NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN INTO THE UPPER
40S... WITH THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTH DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE
MID 50S. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE NOW-BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ NEW ENGLAND (THE ECMWF BEING ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER
THAN THE GFS) WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE
ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUN... AND WITH A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
INDUCING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY COLUMN... EXPECT FAIR SKIES.
THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...
IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE VA BORDER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WSW SUN NIGHT
AS ENERGY STREAMS OUT OF CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. LOWS NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR MON-WED: LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EARLY-MID WEEK. A
VORTICITY LOBE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE DELMARVA AND NE NC EARLY
MON... POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO OUR NE CWA... BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MON WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. A PIECE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH BREAKS OFF OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC LATE MON BEFORE SETTLING
TO OUR SOUTH BY TUE... AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MAINLY DRY COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND TUE/WED. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH THIS
FRONT... MAINLY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW STAYING PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST OR NW... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIP. WILL HAVE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MON SHOULD REBOUND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... THEN DIP BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL POST-FRONT WED AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW WITH A RETURN TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIP OUT OF THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR IS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KINT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE LATEST. KRDU SHOULD ALSO BE GETTING THIS
DRY SURGE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER SO THESE SITES SHOULD BE IN THE
CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ITS KRWI AND KFAY THAT REMAIN
MORE UNCERTAIN AS DEWPOINTS HERE ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S WITH SOME RAIN STILL AROUND. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AROUND DAYBREAK
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER DAYBREAK EXPECT
SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTS WILLS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL OF TO THE WEST. THIS WEEKEND THAT MOISTURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING WILL PRESENT MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
939 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
INCREASED SKY COVER OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
FOG/STRATUS COULD BUILD INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
912 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOL AREA STAYING OUT OF THE
RAIN SO WILL LOWER THE POP THERE SOME MORE...ESPECIALLY NW LUCAS CO.
BEST RAINFALL SO FAR SEEMS TO BE ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH. THE QPF
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOWEST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE
HIGHEST MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
FLOODING WOULD BE MORE NUISANCE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA AS
QPF THERE...EVEN THOUGH HEAVIER THAN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...
SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER THAT NEEDED FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE HIGH
WATER PONDING.
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
THE RUNOFF FROM THE WARM RAIN EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WILL KEEP THE ICE MOVING AND ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.
TEMPS ARE SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AND SHOULD STAY IN THAT
RANGE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME FOG WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY DENSE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO HANG UNTO TO
SOME SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
GETTING DOWN TO 8 DEGREES AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR MONDAY
NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A LITTLE SUN AND THAT
COULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE.
THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM FOR MONDAY. IT SEEMS TOO WARM VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS. WENT CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. THE ONLY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE SHOULD WRAP UP DURING THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO
BEGIN TO RETURN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
SW ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY. WILL
GO WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LIGHTEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF TOLEDO.
OTHERWISE IF CEILINGS ARE NOT ALREADY AT IFR LEVELS THEY WILL DIP
TO IT THROUGH NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY BUT WILL NEED END ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT FLIPPING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WATCH AREA
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL HELP MOVE
ICE IN THE RIVERS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS. EXPECTED
RAINFALL TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WATCH AREA WILL MAINLY BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE
COVERED. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE ROCKY RIVER IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
WAS FREE OF ICE.
DID NOT EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS
MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO NEARLY AN INCH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA
HYDROLOGY...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
731 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE RUC AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TOL AREA STAYING OUT OF THE
RAIN SO WILL LOWER THE POP THERE...ESPECIALLY NW LUCAS CO.
THE QPF STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE LOWEST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
AND THE HIGHEST MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY FLOODING WOULD BE MORE NUISANCE OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA
AS QPF THERE...EVEN THOUGH HEAVIER THAN IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...
SHOULD STILL STAY UNDER THAT NEEDED FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE HIGH
WATER PONDING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.
CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH MAINLY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
THE RUNOFF FROM THE WARM RAIN EVEN THOUGH THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WILL KEEP THE ICE MOVING AND ICE JAMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM.
THE LOWS ARE ALSO TRICKY. WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE WITH
DEW POINTS ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE MODELS TRY TO HANG UNTO TO
SOME SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
NE OH AND NW PA WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
GETTING DOWN TO 8 DEGREES AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR MONDAY
NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TOUGH. WENT TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A LITTLE SUN AND THAT
COULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE A LITTLE.
THE ECMWF IS VERY WARM FOR MONDAY. IT SEEMS TOO WARM VERSUS THE
OTHER MODELS. WENT CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. THE ONLY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER
FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE SHOULD WRAP UP DURING THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO
BEGIN TO RETURN. A STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
SW ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY 00Z SATURDAY. WILL
GO WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LIGHTEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF TOLEDO.
OTHERWISE IF CEILINGS ARE NOT ALREADY AT IFR LEVELS THEY WILL DIP
TO IT THROUGH NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY BUT WILL NEED END ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AT THE
EARLIEST. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSES WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA SUNDAY.
NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
THEN CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT FLIPPING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE WATCH AREA
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL HELP MOVE
ICE IN THE RIVERS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ICE JAMS. EXPECTED
RAINFALL TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WATCH AREA WILL MAINLY BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS MOST VULNERABLE WILL BE ALONG
RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO LAKE ERIE...WHICH ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE
COVERED. AS OF LATE THIS MORNING THE ROCKY RIVER IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
WAS FREE OF ICE.
DID NOT EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 AS
MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO NEARLY AN INCH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-
018>023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KUBINA
HYDROLOGY...KIELTYKA/ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1211 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
SOUNDINGS FROM OAX...ABR...AND LBF...SHOW THAT THE MOIST LAYER
WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING JUST
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IN ADDITION...THE RAP IS SHOWING
DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY AND
WEST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN MOST
AREAS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST SD AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER SW
MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
NEAR TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED GUSTY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXY. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS HAVE NOT RISEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 30S. FAIRLY SUBSTANCIAL CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IS
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE TYPICAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES.
THE BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...KEY ELEMENTS FOR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING. CIRRUS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN THICK THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WELL MIXED SOUNDING BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
MIXING...LIKELY IN THE 850:800 MB LAYER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY MID-DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT...NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLN...BUT INSTEAD A FAIRLY STOUT
DROP IN DEW POINTS AS WE TAP INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT.
HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KNOTS
OF FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF THIS WIND FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT
GUSTS THIS AFTN.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID-LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS COULD BLANKET
THE REGION ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO ADVECT
IN...RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY.
DISREGARDED THE GFS...AS IT IS A COLD OUTLIER...AND FAVORED A
THERMAL PROFILE CLOSER TO THE GEM...ECMWF AND NAM. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A VERY NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PROBABLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH HIGHER...SO HIGHS
COULD VERY WELL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DID NOT
CHANGE HIGHS MUCH...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED.
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS...BUT QUITE THE SPREAD
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME
POINT BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCLEAR. THUS MONDAY COULD REALISTICALLY END UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE 50S TO 70S. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER RECENT RUNS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS
BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ALMOST
EVERY RUN. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD AS WELL...AND HONESTLY NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. SO STAYING NEAR
SUPERBLEND SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH GIVES 50S AND 60S...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT EVEN THIS IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH HON EARLY THIS EVENING...REACHING SIOUX FALLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SIOUX CITY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARE LIKELY TO GUST
AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP MIXING WILL
PULL DOWN DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE WILL AVERAGE 18-30 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SW MN AND NW IOWA. THE HIGHEST WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO
YANKTON...WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RH
VALUES MAY STAY A FEW PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LVLS IN SW MN AND NW
IOWA...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE THOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUE
NEGLIGIBLE. SNOW MELT HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT
SATURATED/MOIST...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ABUNDANT PRAIRIE GRASS AND
BRUSH IS VERY DRY AND CONDUCIVE TO BURNING. WILL ISSUE AN RFW FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE RH VALUES
MAY PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT. SHOULD WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...A BRIEF RFW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONSENSUS MODEL DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON FRIDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES
WILL EXIST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NEXT DAY FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL BE SUNDAY. SUNDAY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND RH VALUES. IN FACT RH VALUES COULD EVEN
END UP A BIT LOWER. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ257-258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
SOUNDINGS FROM OAX...ABR...AND LBF...SHOW THAT THE MOIST LAYER
WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING JUST
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IN ADDITION...THE RAP IS SHOWING
DEW POINTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY AND
WEST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN MOST
AREAS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST SD AND BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER SW
MN AND NW IA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
NEAR TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED GUSTY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXY. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS HAVE NOT RISEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 30S. FAIRLY SUBSTANCIAL CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION IS
ALSO HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE TYPICAL NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE VALUES.
THE BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WITH WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...KEY ELEMENTS FOR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTING. CIRRUS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL REMAIN THICK THIS MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATING THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WELL MIXED SOUNDING BY MID-AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
MIXING...LIKELY IN THE 850:800 MB LAYER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWEST OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY MID-DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT...NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLN...BUT INSTEAD A FAIRLY STOUT
DROP IN DEW POINTS AS WE TAP INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT.
HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS AND ESPECIALLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KNOTS
OF FLOW RESIDES WITHIN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF THIS WIND FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT
GUSTS THIS AFTN.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID-LVL CLOUD
DECK WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND THIS COULD BLANKET
THE REGION ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH. COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO ADVECT
IN...RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY.
DISREGARDED THE GFS...AS IT IS A COLD OUTLIER...AND FAVORED A
THERMAL PROFILE CLOSER TO THE GEM...ECMWF AND NAM. THIS SUPPORTS
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A VERY NICE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS VERY WARM AND BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT
TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL PROBABLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SEE TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH HIGHER...SO HIGHS
COULD VERY WELL END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. DID NOT
CHANGE HIGHS MUCH...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WENT WELL ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED.
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT
SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS...BUT QUITE THE SPREAD
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT SOME
POINT BRINGING A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT
EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCLEAR. THUS MONDAY COULD REALISTICALLY END UP
ANYWHERE FROM THE 50S TO 70S. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER RECENT RUNS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THE GEM HAS
BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING ALMOST
EVERY RUN. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD AS WELL...AND HONESTLY NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT. SO STAYING NEAR
SUPERBLEND SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH GIVES 50S AND 60S...BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT EVEN THIS IS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MARGINAL LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL VEER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS FOR
FSD AND SUX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO HURON LATER
TONIGHT...AND A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP MIXING WILL
PULL DOWN DEW POINTS INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE WILL AVERAGE 18-30 PERCENT WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SW MN AND NW IOWA. THE HIGHEST WINDS HOWEVER
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO
YANKTON...WHERE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE RH
VALUES MAY STAY A FEW PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LVLS IN SW MN AND NW
IOWA...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE THOSE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUE
NEGLIGIBLE. SNOW MELT HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT
SATURATED/MOIST...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ABUNDANT PRAIRIE GRASS AND
BRUSH IS VERY DRY AND CONDUCIVE TO BURNING. WILL ISSUE AN RFW FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA TO MONITOR WILL BE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE RH VALUES
MAY PLUMMET BELOW 20 PERCENT. SHOULD WINDS END UP STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...A BRIEF RFW MAY BE NEEDED.
CONSENSUS MODEL DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON FRIDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH...WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES
WILL EXIST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNING.
THE NEXT DAY FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL BE SUNDAY. SUNDAY
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND RH VALUES. IN FACT RH VALUES COULD EVEN
END UP A BIT LOWER. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS WE GET CLOSER.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ257-258.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ900.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ300-301.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ249.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...CHENARD
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...CHENARD/DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AS
WELL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
FIELDS ARE INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS NW ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE INFLECTION POINT REACHES
OUR AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THEREFORE...WILL SCALE DOWN THE PRE MIDNIGHT WEATHER
GRIDS TO INCLUDE LIKELY AND CHC LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR ARE ALL IN FAVOR OF THE
WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL LEVEL PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...AT MID-AFTERNOON IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND QUITE MILD
OVER THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 DEGREES AT MANY POINTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
RADAR, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-24.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY RAINY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT ALL THE
WAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
SINCE A FINAL SHOT OF SHOWERS IS FORECSAT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ENDING TIME OF THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MID-
STATE. HOWEVER, BEFORE MAKING ANY SUCH CHANGE, WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
THE NIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA TO MORE DEFINITIVELY
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS PRIOR
TO SATURDAY AND WHETHER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE
SAME.
RIGHT NOW, EXPECT RAIN TOTALS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY NIGHT TO AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE
GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE WEST.
EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. BY 12Z FRI, WINDS AT 850MB SHOULD BE
BLOWING AT 35 TO 40 KTS. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE EAST. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER, COULD RECEIVED ANOTHER ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN TEMPORARILY TAPER OFF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTHERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY`S
WEATHER, AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED, TO DETERMINE IF WE
NEED TO EXTEND THE END POINT OF OUR FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION,
CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, THAT WILL SEE THE FRONT COME THROUGH
AT THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY).
LONG TERM...STILL EXPECT A DRY SPELL FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY, IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ALONG ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY--WHICH
WILL BRING US UP TO THE EVE OF THE VERNAL EQUINOX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 56 60 57 69 / 90 100 100 60
CLARKSVILLE 55 62 58 65 / 90 100 100 80
CROSSVILLE 50 56 54 64 / 90 100 100 50
COLUMBIA 57 59 57 69 / 100 100 100 60
LAWRENCEBURG 57 61 57 70 / 100 100 100 50
WAVERLY 57 63 58 68 / 100 100 100 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>008-023>027-056>061-093>095.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS ONGOING WHILE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR GLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS LINE MAY AFFECT THE METRO TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...GIVEN SPARSE BUOY DATA IN THE
GULF...THINK THE SFC LOW IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 42002 AND PLATFORM
KHHV IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. RADAR HAS RAIN MOVING
INLAND WITH MAYBE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN THE GULF WHERE
850MB LLJ IS OVERRIDING SFC BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS OFF THE LOWER TX COAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER S TX. LATEST RAP/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE DECENT
HANDLE ON SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE 12Z 4KM WRF-ARW ALSO LOOKS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS. SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS GALVESTON BAY
AND THEN TRACK INLAND ACROSS E TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT NOT MUCH. THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE ENHANCED LLJ.
LIKELY TIME RANGE LOOKS TO BE 7-11Z. THINK RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A CROCKETT...HOUSTON...GALVESTON
LINE. DO NOT THINK RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE THAN UNLESS MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WEST OF THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DROP OFF
QUICKLY. COLLEGE STATION COULD SEE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCHE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE EVENT. THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING
IT. HOUSTON AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE
DEPENDING ON WHETHER YOU LIVE EAST OF HOUSTON OR WEST OF HOUSTON.
IMPACTS TO ONGOING RIVER FLOODING...OBVIOUSLY ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALL WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RISES IN RIVERS THAT ALREADY FLOOD. THE
TRINITY RIVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PARTS OF THE SAN
JACINTO. RAIN RATES WILL BE MAYBE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AN
HOUR IN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SO THINK THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW. BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR INCREASED FLOODING NEAR RIVERS. RIGHT NOW A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR HAS -RA/RA ADVANCING NORTH OFF THE GULF. THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE VERY MUCH PRECIP BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE. MESO
MODELS HRRR/RAP SHOW PRECIP FILLING IN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM 07Z-12Z
THUR. RAIN SHOULD THEN DECREASE AFTER THAT. TAFS FEATURE A SOUTH
TO NORTH PROGRESSION OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND CIGS WITH RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE IFR STARTING AROUND 05-06Z INLAND BUT CLOSER TO
03Z FOR KLBX/KGLS. RAIN SHOULD THEN BE ENDING 16-20Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH RAIN LINGERING FOR KUTS/KCLL UNTIL 22Z THUR-00Z FRI.
CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS RAIN LIFTS OUT. GUIDANCE REMAINS
PESSIMISTIC WITH IFR BUT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF TAFS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND ADD MENTION OF TSRA
IF NEEDED.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NW GULF SFC LOW AND AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHRT WV. UPDATED
THE FORECAST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ALONG
THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE A WET NIGHT AHEAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (1.5 INCHES) COMBINES WITH AMPLE
LIFT DUE TO FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE (LOW AND UPPER LEVEL).
NOT ONLY HAVE THE POPS BEEN RAISED TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF A FREEPORT TO HOUSTON TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD POTENTIAL AS SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE EARLY
WEEK RAINFALL.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIP CHC EXTEND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AT THAT TIME. AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD AND A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN. INLAND
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE SUN MAKING AN EXTENDED
APPEARANCE AS WELL. WEEKEND MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND IN THE
50S/70S. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT TUE/WED. 33
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF KBRO...
WILL MOVE N-NE TONIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
INTO SE TX TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. WILL ADD
AND SCEC FOR GALVESTON BAY THROUGH 06Z AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS ALSO THROUGH 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 63 50 71 52 / 40 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 64 53 71 53 / 80 50 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 62 55 66 57 / 100 40 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF US WILL DRY THINGS OUT TODAY...BUT CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN HAS ADVANCED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTY
WARNING AREA AS OF 9PM. LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAD RAIN AND
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN
03Z/11PM AND 06Z/2AM. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIMING AND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COULD DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WET GROUND DUE TO THE RAIN TODAY...A CLEAR SKY
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...ALSO ADDED FOG IN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MELTING SNOW PROMPTED FLOODING ACROSS
PARTS OF GREENBRIER COUNTY TODAY. THAT FLOODING IS STILL
ONGOING...AND POSTED WARNINGS CONTINUE. NOW THAT THE RAIN WAS EXITING
THE REGION...THE DEGREE TO WHICH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL
CAUSES RISES ON STREAMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT NEW
WARNINGS. THEREFORE...THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A LEE
SIDE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH WILL TURN WINDS E-SE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS
FLOW WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND ADVECT IT
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH SOME LATE IN
THE DAY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE BRIEF
DRYING THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR
FRIDAY LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE WHAT TRANSPIRED DURING THE WORK WEEK
WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TEXAS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE THE FACT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXIST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S/40S...AND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/...TRENDING
TO MORE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER SCENARIO AS WE ENTER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...EAST SIDE OF THE STORM ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISLODGE THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR BY
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME...WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS BECOME MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK INTO THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SUNDAY SHOULD FINALLY
BRING SOME DRYING TO THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE
NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL OPEN BACK UP WITH MOISTURE FLOWING BACK TOWARD THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW FAST THE DRY AIR COMES IN VERSUS
FOG FORMATION AT THE TERMINALS. ALREADY SEEING DENSE FOG AT
LWB/BLF. BECAUSE OF THE PATTERN...THE FOG WILL STICK AROUND LONGER
INTO THE BLF AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE SFC WINDS
SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH...THOUGH STAYING LIGHT. LWB WILL BE IN
AND OUT OF FOG AS DRY AIR TRIES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THE GROUND IS SOAKED...SO MAY LINGER FOG INTO DAWN.
GOING MORE OPTIMISTIC THINKING DENSE FOG WILL BE AT TIMES AROUND
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...WITH VSBYS FINALLY WORKING ABOVE IFR BY 14Z.
FURTHER EAST THINK THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP LYH FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
SO BUMPED UP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VSBYS TO TEMPO IFR BEFORE DAWN.
DANVILLE ON THE OTHER HAND MAY STAY IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LONGER
TO ALLOW FOR VSBYS TO DROP TO 1SM TOWARD DAWN.
BLACKSBURG ALSO TRICKY AS FOG IS LIMITED AT THE MOMENT BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT THICK BETWEEN 07Z-
12Z...SO HAVE VSBYS DOWN TO 2SM WITH TEMPO OF 1/4SM FG.
ROANOKE SHOULD STAY VFR.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z THERE WILL BE SCATTERED AND AT TIME
BKN CIRRUS...BUT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD BLF BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
BY FRIDAY...MORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
LIKELY. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SO EXPECT ANOTHER 48 HOUR PERIOD OF SUB VFR WX FOR MOST OF
THE TIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKS LIKE CLEARING BY SUNDAY WITH VFR RETURNING...THOUGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MVFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY IN BLF/LWB. COULD BE BREEZY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY INCLUDING THE
GREENBRIER RIVER. RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HRS IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOWMELT IS RESULTING IN WATER FLOWING OUT OF JUST ABOUT
EVERY CRACK AND CREVICE ACROSS THE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE... STREAMS
ARE RUNNING HIGH...BUT NO NEED FOR HEADLINES ATTM. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE NEXT SURGE OF RAIN WHICH IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THE NEXT RAIN EPISODE WILL
NET AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF /0.50/ TO ONE INCH /1.00/ OF RAINFALL.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO WAS OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTY QUITE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE/CIRRUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TEMPERING WARMING AND HIGHS A BIT. STILL
PLENTY WARM FOR MARCH 12...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS SOME 15F TO
25F ABOVE NORMAL.
12.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT FOR GFS AND ITS ABOUT 5F
HIGH BIAS ON SFC DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN TO MO.
SOLUTIONS OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI
NIGHT. EVEN WITH THE APPROACHING/PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEEK
LOOKS TO END WITH DRY/QUIET WEATHER. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES RELAX AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT
IN STORE AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME OF THE
WARMEST 925MB AIR OVER THE FCST AREA AT 12Z FRI. LOWS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI
TO NEAR KLSE AND KDMX AT 18Z FRI...THEN WELL EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA BY 00Z SAT. STRONGER OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE
FRONT A BIT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI. FRI TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...AS WARM OR WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH THE WARM START AND DEEPER MIXING WITH 925MB TEMPS
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER
IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +3C TO -2C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS 5-
10KTS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED MOST LOCATIONS...AND FRI
NIGHT LOWS MOSTLY AT/ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. COLUMN QUITE DRY THRU
THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR SOME POST FRONTAL LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS
BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT AND FAVORED
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN SUN...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
12.12Z REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TREND OF A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT/SAT NIGHT. DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT AFTER THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES. REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
RIDGING TO BUILD/AMPLIFY ALONG THE PAC COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT...BUT
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS CAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH MUCH OF THE
IMPACT OF THIS WAVE ON THE AREA BEYOND SUN NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS GOOD.
COOLER CANADIAN SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT/
SAT NIGHT. DEEPER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALSO SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOUNDINGS AND TIME-
HGT X-SECTIONS SHOW A GENERALLY DRY COLUMN OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT
NIGHT FOR CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SAT LOOKING TO BE A DAY SIMILAR
TO WED...WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. COOLER
NIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA SUN ON BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. 925MB TEMPS
PROGGED BACK IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE BY 00Z MON WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO AT LEAST 925MB SUN AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 500MB FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT...MUCH LIKE TODAY. GIVEN
THE CLOUD POTENTIAL AND COLD GROUND...MIXED LAYER MAY BE SHALLOWER
OR NOT FULLY MIX SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOME GRADIENT
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SUN NIGHT WITH WARMEST OF THE 925MB AIR
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT OVER THE AREA AT 12Z MON. GENERALLY USED THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES MON AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WED NIGHT/THU.
12.00Z/12.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
MON...FOR RIDGING TO BE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CAN AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. RIDGING REMAINS OVER WESTERN NOAM TUE WHILE TROUGHING DEEPENS
INTO EASTERN NOAM...LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THRU THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TOWARD THE REGION WED/THU...BUT STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF AK QUICKLY REBUILDS THE WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU IT. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
FOR A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE DETAILS/PRECIP CHANCES.
SHORTWAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES QUICKLY MANIFEST THEMSELVES ON
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION MONDAY.
PLENTY OF BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ON THIS FRONTAL
TIMING. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE FRONT MOVING THRU THE
FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAY YET BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT/SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. SMALL -RA ACROSS THE
NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA MON REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER MILD/WARM
DAY MON WITH THE AREA LOOKING TO BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MUCH OF THE
DAY. CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIRMASS SPREAD IN FOR MON NIGHT
INTO WED...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS ONLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL. WITH LACK
OF SNOW COVER NOW...LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU WED LOOKING TO
REMAIN ABOVE THE MID MARCH NORMALS. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING THRU THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING BY LATER WED AND THU. 12.12Z GFS WOULD SPREAD A
MAINLY -RA CHANCE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU WHILE 12.12Z ECMWF
BUILDS CAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SMALL MAINLY -RA
CHANCE ON THU...PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...OKAY FOR NOW. SIDED WITH
THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON NIGHT-THU.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL SUNDOWN/
INVERSION RETURNS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR LLWS LATER TONIGHT WITH RAP/
NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KTS OF WIND FROM ROUGHLY 03-
09Z. RAP IS STRONGER WHILE THE NAM MORE BORDER-LINE FOR LLWS. WILL
NOT ADD TO TAFS RIGHT NOW...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...THERE ARE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN BRISK AND WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW AND COLD FRONT. ANY CONCERN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS AND IF DEW POINTS DROP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MIXED SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY SHOW DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...MIN RH/S
COULD DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE...MORE 25-30 PERCENT IF DEW
POINTS END UP AROUND 30F. THIS PLUS SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AND DRYING FINE FUELS RAISES THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUN
AFTERNOON. IF MIXING/DRYING ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED THERE COULD BE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RRS
LONG TERM......RRS
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
MUCH WARMER SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AT 925 MB. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS WENT CLOSE TO WHAT HAPPENED ON THAT DAY. THE ONLY
CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WAS TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES WHERE THE
SNOW COVER...CLOUDS...AND FOG KEPT THEM COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
ON FRIDAY...THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO WHAT THEY
WERE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
WHAT OCCURRED ON THAT DAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WAS THAT THE SNOW
IS NOW GONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...SO
WARMED THOSE AREAS UP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO TAKE THIS IN ACCOUNT.
MEANWHILE IN CLAYTON AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...THESE AREAS WERE KEPT COOLER
BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...SO ALSO TOOK THIS ACCOUNT AND
WARMED THESE AREA UP TOO.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEM...AND NAM AND ECMWF WITH THEIR
925 MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE
MUCH COLDER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. ONE STRIKING THING THAT SHOWS
UP IN THE GRIDS IS THAT THE GFS AND GEM BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THE ACTUAL GFS AND GEM MODELS BY 10 TO 16
DEGREES. THIS TREND ACTUALLY CONTINUES ALL OF THE WAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS TELLING US THAT THE GFS AND GEM HAVE BEEN WAY TOO
COLD WITH THEIR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS
LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ITS BIAS CORRECTED GRID AND THE ONE
BEING PRODUCED BY THE MODEL. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF IS PERFORMING
MUCH BETTER WITH ITS TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO
THIS...WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...IT HAS
BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO COLD....SO TRENDED IT MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GRID.
ON MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
CANADIAN COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY...THUS...IT TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. MEANWHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS A RESULT IT
HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE EVEN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WITH NO
CLEAR WINNER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...JUST STAYED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
ON TUESDAY...THE GFS HAS WARMED ITS 925 MB TEMPERATURES UP INTO
THE 0 TO 4C RANGE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. DUE
TO THIS JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE
DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO THE
BASE STATE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE HENDON WHEELER DIAGRAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
THE VERY STRONG MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ SIGNAL WHICH IS IN
PHASE 7/ WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR
AREA/ RAPIDLY WEAKENS. IF THIS WAS AN ACTUAL MJO IT WOULD
TRANSITIONED INTO PHASE 8. HOWEVER IN REALITY WE HAVE A WESTWARD
MOVING EQUATORIAL ROSSBY WAVE INTERACTING CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING KELVIN WAVE. THESE TWO CAUSED ENOUGH ENHANCEMENT
IN THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF HAWAII THAT THEY IMITATED WHAT WOULD
NORMALLY OCCUR WITH A MJO IN PHASE 7. WE SAW THE TYPICAL ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHICH HELPED
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY AND
ALSO KEPT THE POLAR JET MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...THUS
KEEPING THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE REGION. AROUND MARCH
17TH...THESE TWO WAVES WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IS A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE ANOMALOUS
TROPICAL FORCING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
THE BASE STATE AND MORE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MARCH
TEMPERATURES AND AT TIMES THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
THE LATEST CFS VERSION 2 IS DOING REALLY WELL AT DEPICTING THIS
CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON MIXING RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS UNTIL
SUNDOWN/INVERSION RETURNS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR LLWS LATER TONIGHT
WITH RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 40-45 KTS OF WIND FROM
ROUGHLY 03-09Z. RAP IS STRONGER WHILE THE NAM MORE BORDER-LINE FOR
LLWS. WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS RIGHT NOW...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015
THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW MUCH MIXING CAN LOWER THE DEW POINTS
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THOUGHTS IS THAT THE DEW POINTS COULD
POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S. IF THIS DOES INDEED
OCCUR...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DEW POINTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S COULD CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND DEW
POINTS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN DRYING THE FINE FUELS SUCH
GRASS RAPIDLY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ANY GRASS FIRES
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
354 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN TODAY...STARTING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING ***
THIS MORNING...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NYC AREA AT 330 AM WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS OF NY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/NMM/ARW/HRRR AND RAP WERE VERIFYING NICELY AT 06Z WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THESE MODELS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO WESTERN MA/CT AND RI UNTIL ABOUT
12Z...THEN BY 14Z-15Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST INCLUDING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.
THIS SLOWER PRECIP ONSET WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORTER DURATION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND ALSO IMPACT A SMALLER AREA. THUS HIGHEST RISK
AREAS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA WITH LOWER RISK SOUTHWARD
INTO CT/RI AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO GLAZE THE ROADS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS.
HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ADVISORY MENTIONED
HIGHEST RISK AREAS WILL BE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
FROM THE START.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION /RRQ OF 150+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET/ IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS INDUCES SECONDARY LOW PRES OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT SSW 850 JET ADVECTING PWATS UP TO +2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT NOON TO 4 PM ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THUS EXPECTING A COLD
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUID REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LESS RAINFALL NORTH OF THE PIKE
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. NOT ENOUGH TO INDUCE RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH LITTLE RELEASE FROM SNOWPACK AS DEW PTS
ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE L40S. HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR MINOR/NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS OF
PROVIDENCE/CRANSTON/NEW BEDFORD/FALL RIVER AND OTHER TOWNS ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ***
TONIGHT...
ANY STEADY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AS LFQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE LFQ THERE IS
NOTICEABLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE WHICH ENHANCES QG FORCING. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
MODEST SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND
MAY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY
STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MA AND RI.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES DURING THE DAY IN MID MARCH CAN
BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND DAYS GETTING LONGER.
THUS AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY IS REQUIRED. SO MINOR ACCUM
MAYBE CONFINED TO NON PAVED SURFACES. AS FOR SPECIFIC POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MA AND
RI. THE ONE WILD CARD HERE ARE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT. THUS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY HAVE A GREATER RESPONSE THAN MODEL QPF
SUGGEST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN CT/MA AND RI. EC SLIGHTLY LESS WITH ABOUT 0.15 INCHES. THUS
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL SNEAKY EVENT UNFOLD.
MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...
BUT TEMPS COOLING TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. ALSO
BECOMING BLUSTERY LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
OVERALL WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
S-SW WINDS BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS AROUND 12Z SOUTH ZONES AND 15Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
TONIGHT...
STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE EVENING AND IS REPLACED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW PRES OVERHEAD BUT BECOMING WNW AS LOW
RACES FROM SOUTHEAST MA TO NOVA SCOTIA.
SUNDAY...
LOW EVOLVES INTO A GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA INCREASING THE
RISK FOR NORTHERLY GALES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS. HENCE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
013>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
314 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD...SOAKING RAIN TODAY...PROBABLY
STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ***
945 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS
BRING PRECIP INTO CT AND SW RI 7A-8A THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 11 AM. HOWEVER WHEN COMPARING THE
RAP AND HRRR UPSTREAM ACROSS PA...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW
ADVECTING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE PHILLY
AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT/PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PRECIP TIMING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MODIFY
HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SO THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS THE SAME...A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GREATEST
RISK WEST OF I-495 AND I-90 IN MA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE RISK
DIMINISHES GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
LOWEST WET BULB TEMPS THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY
WITH DEW PTS OF 7 AT ORH AND 6 AT FIT! EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=================================================================
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY TODAY WILL
BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION TOWARD SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS
THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE/SCOUR OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
SPECIFICALLY THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF MA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CUTTING OFF DOWNWARD WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
DISTINCT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE.
THE DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW
QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION YIELDS LIKELY POPS BY 8 AM SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND RI. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF QPF OFFERS 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 8 AM. THUS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN 09Z-14Z
SAT ACROSS NORTHERN CT/NW RI INTO THE I-495 CORRIDOR /POSSIBLY
THE ROUTE-128 CORRIDOR TOO/ AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA. WHILE ANY ICING SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN...ROAD
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.
BASED ON THE RISK FOR LIGHT ICING...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ***
SATURDAY...
BY 15Z OR SO THE RISK OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FINALLY ERODES.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WATER RELEASE FROM THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00
COMBINED WITH SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE URBAN/STREET FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...SSW WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ016>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>015-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ002>004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
242 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD...SOAKING RAIN TODAY...PROBABLY
STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ARRIVES
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ***
945 PM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS
BRING PRECIP INTO CT AND SW RI 7A-8A THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY 11 AM. HOWEVER WHEN COMPARING THE
RAP AND HRRR UPSTREAM ACROSS PA...GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW
ADVECTING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE PHILLY
AREA. HOWEVER CURRENT/PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF RAIN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS VERY GOOD WHEN COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PRECIP TIMING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MODIFY
HOURLY TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TEMPS. SO THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS THE SAME...A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW MORNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GREATEST
RISK WEST OF I-495 AND I-90 IN MA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE RISK
DIMINISHES GIVEN SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY MODIFYING COLD/DRY AIRMASS.
LOWEST WET BULB TEMPS THIS EVENING ARE ACROSS WORCESTER COUNTY
WITH DEW PTS OF 7 AT ORH AND 6 AT FIT! EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=================================================================
MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY TODAY WILL
BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION TOWARD SUNRISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER THE CAVEAT IS
THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE/SCOUR OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...
SPECIFICALLY THE I-91 CORRIDOR OF MA.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CUTTING OFF DOWNWARD WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A
DISTINCT FREEZING RAIN SIGNATURE.
THE DILEMMA REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HOW
QUICKLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION YIELDS LIKELY POPS BY 8 AM SAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER PORTIONS OF CT AND RI. IN
ADDITION A MODEL BLEND OF QPF OFFERS 0.01 TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIP
ENDING AT 8 AM. THUS AN INCREASED RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN 09Z-14Z
SAT ACROSS NORTHERN CT/NW RI INTO THE I-495 CORRIDOR /POSSIBLY
THE ROUTE-128 CORRIDOR TOO/ AND WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MA. WHILE ANY ICING SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...GIVEN THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN...ROAD
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS.
BASED ON THE RISK FOR LIGHT ICING...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ***
SATURDAY...
BY 15Z OR SO THE RISK OF ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FINALLY ERODES.
RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN CT/RI AND EASTERN MA...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WATER RELEASE FROM THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00
COMBINED WITH SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME NUISANCE URBAN/STREET FLOODING.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME
TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
* BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK
OVERVIEW...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD WEATHER BY MIDWEEK AS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROF /2-3SD BELOW
NORMAL/ SETS UP ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY AND MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS MON
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS GFS TRIES TO BRING SOME OVERRUNNING MOISTURE INTO
SNE ON THU WHILE ECMWF/UKMET REMAIN COLD AND DRY. GFS DOES NOT
HAVE SUPPORT OF GEFS MEAN SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO ECMWF SO WE
LEANED TOWARD THE COLD AND DRY SCENARIO PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH SFC REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS E MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND MAY
SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN WITH
ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW
ESPECIALLY IN E MA. MINOR ACCUM OF UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN E
MA WITH ISOLD 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NE MA. MILDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...BUT TEMPS COOLING
TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BRINGS A WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPS MON...THEN A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FROPA MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH ECMWF/UKMET
SLOWER THAN GFS/GGEM. LEANED TOWARD QUICKER GFS GIVEN LOW
AMPLITUDE FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH FRONT OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE LEADING
TO DRY AND COLDER WEATHER TUESDAY WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WED
WITH 850 MB TEMPS -20C. MAX TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 32F.
DISCOUNTED GFS SOLUTION FOR THU AND FOLLOWED ECMWF/GEFS MEAN WHICH
MAINTAINS COLD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
TEMPS MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
THRU 12Z...DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY SW RI WHERE RAIN WILL BE
APPROACHING THAT REGION. SURFACE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. VFR...EVEN WHERE LIGHT PRECIP EXIST.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E MA.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR MON NIGHT IN
RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. NW GUSTS TO
25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY SUNRISE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. CHANCE OF RAIN NORTHERN WATERS.
SATURDAY...SSW WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AS A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING NW WINDS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH G30 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E WATERS. LOW PROB FOR A FEW G35
KT SUN EVENING E MA WATERS.
MONDAY...LEFTOVER SCA GUSTS MON MORNING E WATERS...OTHERWISE
DIMINISHING WINDS...THEN INCREASING PREFRONTAL SW WINDS DEVELOPING
MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCREASING POST FRONTAL NW WINDS. A PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED...ESPECIALLY E
WATERS WITH SCA GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ016>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>015-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ002>004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/KJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW PROBABILITY FOR A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR MDW ONLY.
* WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
MID TEEN GUSTS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE LIFR CEILINGS/VIS JUST SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THESE LOW CEILINGS/VIS WILL DRIFT
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY REACH GYY. THEY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF MDW...BUT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. IF IT WERE TO REACH
MDW...UPSTREAM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND QUICKLY SCOUR ANY OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS. WITH FROPA THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO THEN BE OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING...AND WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN INTO THE
320-330 RANGE. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE EARLY
IN THE EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW 10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR WILL NOT REACH ORD...LOW MEDIUM FOR
MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN...MAY MIX WITH SNOW BRIEFLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7
AM SATURDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
Areas of dense fog have developed from KIJX-KBMI southeastward to
KTAZ-KDNV in areas where rain has recently ended. 1/4 mile
visibilities are common in this region producing VLIFR conditions.
To the southeast, better visibilities in the IFR-MVFR range are
prevalent, although ceilings still generally LIFR. A cold front
will sweep across central IL from 06-12Z bringing in enough dry
northwest flow to gradually clear fog and low clouds, as well as
switch to NW winds 8-10 kts. VFR conditions and NW winds 10-12 kts
expected after 12Z. Winds decreasing after 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ038-
042>046-049>057-061.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO
500MB LEVEL. GIVEN THIS NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING FROM 6C IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND 12C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP WITH WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASING
DIURNALLY. 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND IN THE 12-14C RANGE. MIXED DOWN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
MID 70S. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE TAKEN A LOWER DEWPOINT
SOLUTION AS FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P`S SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS
TO MIX OUT AND DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION,
SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT SUNDAY FOR NOW. ON MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK REACHABLE WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING AND LOW
DEWPOINTS DIURNALLY MIXING OUT. THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS NOT UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BRING THE REGION RAIN. THE SUPERBLEND
POPS LOOK REASONABLE NOW GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 33 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 66 33 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 32 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 34 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 34 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074>076-084-085.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
110 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO. ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO
500MB LEVEL. GIVEN THIS NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY RANGING FROM 6C IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND 12C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS A RESULT WILL
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEST AND NORTH OF GARDEN CITY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN DOMINATES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE CONUS WHILE A CUT OFF LOW SPINS
OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, SUBSEQUENTLY LEAVING STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AND HIGHLY FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT DEEP
THERMAL MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ONLY POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUE WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL EXIST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150+ KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, LITTLE ELSE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 0 C, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN
THE 40S ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.
WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
MEXICO, EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
NEITHER SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 33 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 66 33 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 64 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 32 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 65 34 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
P28 67 34 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1208 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 00Z SATURDAY A 700MB AND 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A 250MB JET WAS
LOCATED WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRETCHED FROM EAST
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST A 500MB
TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AT 00Z SATURDAY WAS LOCATED NEAR A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB HIGH
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION REMAINED IN BETWEEN TWO JET STREAMS
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY SENSIBLE WEATHER WISE OVER US.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH, BUT IT WILL
MORE OR LESS ACT LIKE AN ORDINARY WIND SHIFT AS THERE IS NO COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TO SPEAK OF REALLY. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BUT THE
AIRMASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY SETTLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUMP INTO THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE BY MID-MORNING UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING
OF THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A REX BLOCK
PATTERN DOMINATES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. SPECIFICALLY, A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE CONUS WHILE A CUT OFF LOW SPINS
OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA, SUBSEQUENTLY LEAVING STRONGER
WESTERLIES CONFINED TO ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A BROAD AND HIGHLY FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BRINGING
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL PERMIT DEEP
THERMAL MIXING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. ONLY POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUE WITH THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT WILL EXIST IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150+ KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, EJECT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, LITTLE ELSE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 0 C, HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN
THE 40S ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP CURRENT TREND OF TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.
WEATHER PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE DURING THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS OF THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
MEXICO, EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS APPEARS UNLIKELY AS CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
NEITHER SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM WHICH INDICATED THAT ON THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BY EARLY EVENING GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 33 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 33 76 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 35 74 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 75 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 34 75 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 74 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 4 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EVEN IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THE AVN CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
RATHER BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS NIGHT. HOWEVER...KSYM WILL
LIKELY SEE THE WORST OF IT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE IFR RANGE ALONG WITH THE VIS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS WHILE LETTING
MVFR PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE THE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF TEMPO FOR MOST SITES. THE WX SYSTEM/S FRONT WILL START TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAWN BEFORE IT ALL COMES
TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH NOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AFTER FROPA...CONTINUING
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MAIN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ALONG WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH
TOWARDS DAWN AS SEEN IN THE HRRR AND NAM12. ALSO UPDATED QPF
AMOUNTS AND T/TD PER THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. IN ADDITION...AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
CWA WHERE THE EARLIER MODERATE SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH WITH ANOTHER
BATCH CROSSING ATTM. GENERALLY BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH ANOTHER HALF
INCH OR SO ON THE WAY. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7:15 AM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
A QUICK AND FAIRLY SIMPLE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SO
FAR THE FORECAST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. AFTER WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT...THERE WAS A COUPLE OF HOUR
PERIOD WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARED THAT PERHAPS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE LULL. THEN...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AS THE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD DUE SOUTH...THERE APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN A CORRESPONDING UP TICK IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE HIGHER POPS INHERITED FROM THE
DAY SHIFT WERE LEFT INTACT. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH 6 OR
7Z WERE ALSO UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS. BASED
ON THE CHANGES MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPS WERE RECALCULATED AS WELL. THIS YIELDED MORE REALISTIC
TEMPERATURE WORDING IN THE ZONES...CALLING FOR ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURE RANGES AS OPPOSED TO SAYING THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE OVERALL. THE NEW ZONES WERE RECENTLY SENT OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND TRACKING NORTH AND EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION AND RADAR
RETURNS FILLING IN AS THIS EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP. FOR
THE MOST PART...TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY AS
THIS EVENT HAS GONE THROUGH TIME. QPF VALUES IN THE NAM AND SREF
SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE NORTH AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS SUCH...DESPITE THE
SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD
WATCH GOING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. AS HAS OCCURRED IN THE
LAST EVENT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED SUCH THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME MIST IN WITH THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING ENOUGH TO DROP VIS BELOW A MILE OTHER THAN ANY ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF HEAVY RAIN DROPPING VIS. AS THIS SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE...THE DEFORMATION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SET UP JUST
NORTH OF FLEMING COUNTY OR JUST ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY STILL GETTING THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A POTENT WAVE ALONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEATING AND WAA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY. COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT DEPART RATHER QUICKLY. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. AS THE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
COLD FRONT AND BRING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO WED OR WED
NIGHT. THEN...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS A
SHORTWAVE AND SFC SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS INTRODUCING MORE UNCERTAINTY
FROM MIDWEEK ON IN BOTH THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED INTO THU AND THEN A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES OR EVEN IN HOW FAR NORTH IT REACHES.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT AFTER FOG DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN IN FORCE FOR SUNDAY...WHICH MAY SUBTRACT OUT THE
FACT WE WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR 70S OR THE LOWER 70S AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW RH TO FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND NEAR 25 IN MANY AREAS.
THE MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER...MAINLY AGAINST THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY
DRY ON TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WAS USED GIVEN ALL
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AT SOME
POINT DURING THAT STRETCH A WIDESPREAD RAIN MIGHT BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FROM WED INTO FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EVEN IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THE AVN CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED
RATHER BENIGN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS NIGHT. HOWEVER...KSYM WILL
LIKELY SEE THE WORST OF IT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH CIGS
POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE IFR RANGE ALONG WITH THE VIS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS WHILE LETTING
MVFR PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE THE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
BRIEF TEMPO FOR MOST SITES. THE WX SYSTEM/S FRONT WILL START TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER DAWN BEFORE IT ALL COMES
TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
THROUGH NOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST AFTER FROPA...CONTINUING
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS/JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS IS DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING. ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WESTWARD SAT
AFTN/EVE...BUT FEWER IN NUMBER THAN TODAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND CREATE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TO NEW MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z LAPS DATA INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING TODAY WITH
LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C AND SURFACE BASED CAPE BTWN 300-500J/KG
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SFC
OBS AND A LOOK OUT THE WINDOW VERIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL QUITE LARGE SO WETTING RAIN
REPORTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE SAF/ABQ AREA WESTWARD ONTO THE DIVIDE
THRU ABOUT 02Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. OVERALL MADE SLIGHT CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS IN MOST AREAS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SO DRY.
THE CUT OFF LOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SAGGING WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO SATURDAY. ENOUGH REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO POP A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SFC TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER AS 700MB READINGS PUSH +7C.
DRY AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR NICE SUNNY SKIES
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. THE CUT OFF LOW
IS STILL SHOWN TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON THE
SOUTHERN HORIZON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ON THE GFS TREND UP
TO NEAR 0.63 WHICH IS IN THE TOP 15 FOR MARCH. MEANWHILE...A 1029MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL ACT TO LIFT MOISTURE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. FOR
NOW LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. AN OVERALL AMORPHOUS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE GFS
IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN. SOME
LOCALIZED WETTING MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
SMALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARENT EXPECTED TO COOL ALL THAT MUCH. GUSTIER EASTERLY WIND WILL
IMPACT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CERTAINLY
LOWER AND ALMOST BE CUT IN HALF COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONTAIN VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL.
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND WARM SUNDAY/MONDAY DUE TO RIDGE
STRENGTHENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BATTLING DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND. SUSPECT
THE MAIN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS
MUCH LESS MIXING. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
AND COULD SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE. THE AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL BE DRY TO VERY DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE POOR ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF ON MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
PERIOD AS A CUT OFF LOW DRAWS NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH SOME SORT OF SURFACE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION.
WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO
THIS LOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD RISE AND TEMPERATURE READINGS WOULD
FALL. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRANSLATION EASTWARD BUT
BRING IN ANOTHER LAZY PACIFIC LOW FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS LOOK TO BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH.
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THIS SCENARIO THE PAST 24 HOURS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUED TO INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS
THERE HAVE LOWERED QUICKLY AND SEEING SOME LIGHT FOG IN RUGBY. WILL
KEEP THIS MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE MAIN UPDATE
WAS FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...BUT NOT AFFECTING
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GREATLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
INCREASED SKY COVER OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST
ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
THE LATEST HRRR PROGS LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...ADDED PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 15 THROUGH
19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF
THE STRATUS FIELD AND BUILD DOWN INTO FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
IN REGARDS TO SATURDAY...DID ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INPUT FROM AREA FIRE MANAGERS. ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND TOO MOIST. THUS...TRENDED ABOVE
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND BELOW
FOR AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN FOR NEXT WEEK.
ON SUNDAY...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WIND IN PLACE. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM/EC 925MB THERMAL FIELD FOR SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PORTRAY LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ORIENTATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS...OR
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80...AGAIN BASED ON 925MB TEMPERATURES 18-23C. COOLER
ELSEWHERE (WEST AND NORTH) THANKS TO GREATER SKY COVER...BUT STILL
VERY MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FORECAST SKY COVER IN CASE HIGHS NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED.
IGNORED THE 12Z GFS AS IT WAS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING SOUTH THE COLD
FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/EC COMBO.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY BUSY FIRE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. WILL MENTION IN
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PRODUCT SUNDAYS CONCERNS...AND WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT LOOK AT NEWER DATA AND MAKE A BETTER DECISION.
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. A PERIOD OF
SOME ENHANCED FORCING POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES OVER THE SFC FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT GENERALLY WE SHOULD START OUT AS
ALL RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW ONCE CAA SPREADS
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPS...SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. THROUGH MID-WEEK...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH ALSO BRINGS
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINAL AERODROMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS SUGGEST MVFR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF KMOT/KJMS
IN THE BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY AREAS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY SPREAD/BUILD
INTO KMOT-KJMS BETWEEN 09Z-15Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE TAFS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP
OVER TAF SITES AFT 18Z...ESPECIALLY WEST AND CENTRAL ND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CURRENT DRY FUELS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS POSSIBLE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE
AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ018>020-031>035-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 40 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 41 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 42 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 51 67 52 71 / 0 - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 52 69 53 70 / 0 - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 53 74 54 70 / 0 - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 72 53 69 / 0 - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 68 53 70 / 0 - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 52 69 54 72 / 0 - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 52 70 54 69 / 0 - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 52 70 55 69 / 0 - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
859 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE RAIN MAY
FREEZE ON CONTACT IN SOME OUTLYING AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 859 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS...WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EXTENDING
SW INTO MEXICO. SOME OF THE STRN STREAM ENERGY IS LIFTING N/NE
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SFC TROUGH OR
WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FOCUSING SOME
WARM ADVECTION PCPN.
STEADY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS
PREDICTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE. WITH TEMPS ALOFT
IN THE 1-3 DEGREES C RANGE AT 925-850 HPA...THIS PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON THE THE
EXACT SFC TEMPS.
WITH SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S...AND WET BULBING NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BASED ON THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHC FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WOULD BE AN
ISOLATED LOCATION IN THE SRN DACKS OR SRN VT...WHERE IT WILL
PERSIST THE LONGEST.
THE WARM COLUMN AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN SFC LAYER SHOULD YIELD
PLAIN RAINFALL EVERYWHERE BY LUNCH TIME. THE REMAINING AREA IN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11 AM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS
IS ON TRACK.
THE BEST QG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE NRN STREAM CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CLOSED COMPACT H500
CIRCULATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
LIFT FOR THE NRN ZONES WILL BE IN THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE DAMP CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F IN
THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE SCOOTS TO THE ERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND THE NRN STREAM SFC WAVE OR SECONDARY LOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE H500 LOW
MOVES OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION CLOSE TO 06Z/SUN. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A BEST CHC FOR A COATING TO AN INCH OR
ISOLATED TWO OF SNOW. NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION /LITTLE TO NONE/ IS
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SFC
TEMPS HANGING IN THE LOWER TO M30S. THE BEST CHC FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS TO COOL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE SNOW WILL BE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER FORCING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...AND UPPER
DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE
-30C OR SO COLD POOL MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AT H500. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SCT SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT OR GREATER /GENERALLY
UNDER A HALF AN INCH/. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE REGION. MONDAY WILL START OUT NICE WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO MID AND U40S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. A CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
SCT RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY AND COLDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO L30S OVER
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER ITS AMPLITUDE IS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN DUE TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHILE THE THREAT HAS ENDED AT KALB
AND KPOU AIRPORTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THIS MORNING SO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN
RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KGFL AND KPSF. IT WILL TAKE LONGER AT KGFL...BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE MOIST
MILDER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS. HOWEVER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD. MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTER BACK IN SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDRESSED CHANCES WITH VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS. A WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY MARCH
16TH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS THAN TWO TENTHS FOR THE NORTHERN BASINS. QPF
AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVER LOWER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN SOME VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY FLOODING IN THE ALY HSA.
SOME MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES OCCUR. STEVENSON DAM IS THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT IS FORECASTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE ON THE
GEFS...NAEFS AND SREFS. FLOWS THERE ARE CONTROLLED. THE ONLY RIVER
POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT EAGLE BRIDGE THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS STILL ICE COVERED AS
WELL.
ICE BREAK UP IS STILL A CHALLENGE SINCE QPF WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SOAR OUT OF THE U30S TO M40S WITH THIS
EVENT. IF RIVER ICE WERE TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC
BASINS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE JAMS ON SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS
DUE TO THE RAIN FORECASTED. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENT. SOME URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS WELL...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW...ICE...AND DEBRIS BLOCK
STORM DRAINS.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U30S TO MID
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MID MARCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082>084.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
705 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BEFORE NOONTIME. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS...WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EXTENDING
SW INTO MEXICO. SOME OF THE STRN STREAM ENERGY IS LIFTING N/NE
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE LOWER-MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A SFC TROUGH OR
WEAK WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FOCUSING SOME
WARM ADVECTION PCPN.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG ON THE 290K
SFC...BUT THE PCPN IS FILLING IN NICELY OVER CNTRL-SRN NY AND NJ
THIS HOUR. THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS VERY DRY OVER THE REGION WITH
SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND M20S. THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY
SATURATE BTWN 630 AM AND 8 AM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTHWARD. THE WET BULB
COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 33-36F RANGE. THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE PROGRESSION OF PCPN.
NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC OF FREEZING RAIN
WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 8 AM
AND 11 AM. ANY ICE ACCRETIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT BASED ON THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE A TRACE TO
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE BEST CHC FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH WOULD BE AN ISOLATED LOCATION IN THE SRN DACKS OR SRN
VT...WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST.
THE WARM COLUMN AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR IN SFC LAYER SHOULD YIELD
PLAIN RAINFALL EVERYWHERE BY LUNCH TIME. THE CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS
UNTIL 11 AM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS ON TRACK.
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPED BETWEEN 8 AM AND 930 AM AS TEMPS BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN THE MID TO U30S.
THE BEST QG LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS OF TWO TENTHS TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE NRN STREAM CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM SE ONTARIO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CLOSED COMPACT H500
CIRCULATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND
LIFT FOR THE NRN ZONES WILL BE IN THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE DAMP CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F IN
THE MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE SCOOTS TO THE ERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND THE NRN STREAM SFC WAVE OR SECONDARY LOW WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE H500 LOW
MOVES OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION CLOSE TO 06Z/SUN. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A BEST CHC FOR A COATING TO AN INCH OR
ISOLATED TWO OF SNOW. NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION /LITTLE TO NONE/ IS
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SFC
TEMPS HANGING IN THE LOWER TO M30S. THE BEST CHC FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS TO COOL CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR THE SNOW WILL BE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY
ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER FORCING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO L30S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...AND UPPER
DEFORMATION RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE
-30C OR SO COLD POOL MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AT H500. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SCT SNOW SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS 1500 FT OR GREATER /GENERALLY
UNDER A HALF AN INCH/. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO
L40S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE TN/OH VALLEYS. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL LOWER INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE REGION. MONDAY WILL START OUT NICE WITH
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS WARMING NICELY INTO MID AND U40S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST. A CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL QUEBEC. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN
DACKS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
SCT RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BECOME
BLUSTERY AND COLDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO L30S OVER
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY. WITH ITS PASSAGE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER 20S WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION THE BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER ITS AMPLITUDE IS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN DUE TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHILE THE THREAT HAS ENDED AT KALB
AND KPOU AIRPORTS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THIS MORNING SO A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN
RAIN WILL OCCUR AT KGFL AND KPSF. IT WILL TAKE LONGER AT KGFL...BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE MOIST
MILDER AIR MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS. HOWEVER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD. MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR FILTER BACK IN SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDRESSED CHANCES WITH VCSH IN TAFS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS. A WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/SHSN.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY MARCH
16TH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME ISOLATED BREAK UP ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS
TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OR SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND LESS THAN TWO TENTHS FOR THE NORTHERN BASINS. QPF
AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
OVER LOWER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW ACCUMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVIC AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN SOME VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.
THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY FLOODING IN THE ALY HSA.
SOME MODEST WITHIN BANK RISES OCCUR. STEVENSON DAM IS THE ONLY
LOCATION THAT IS FORECASTED TO REACH ACTION STAGE ON THE
GEFS...NAEFS AND SREFS. FLOWS THERE ARE CONTROLLED. THE ONLY RIVER
POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT EAGLE BRIDGE THIS MORNING...WHICH
IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS STILL ICE COVERED AS
WELL.
ICE BREAK UP IS STILL A CHALLENGE SINCE QPF WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SOAR OUT OF THE U30S TO M40S WITH THIS
EVENT. IF RIVER ICE WERE TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC
BASINS. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ICE JAMS ON SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS
DUE TO THE RAIN FORECASTED. NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EVENT. SOME URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS WELL...ESP IN AREAS WHERE SNOW...ICE...AND DEBRIS BLOCK
STORM DRAINS.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U30S TO MID
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MID MARCH.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN TODAY...STARTING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MA AND RI. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. THEN BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE INLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING ***
7 AM UPDATE...RAIN AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS ON SCHEDULE
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WITH AREAS
THAT WERE ABLE TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT JUST BELOW FREEZING AND AREAS
WHERE THE WIND KEPT UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THUS FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE PATCHY. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THIS MORNING...
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OVERSPREADING NYC AREA AT 330 AM WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP MOVING INTO THE CATSKILLS OF NY. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE NAM/NMM/ARW/HRRR AND RAP WERE VERIFYING NICELY AT 06Z WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THESE MODELS DELAY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP INTO WESTERN MA/CT AND RI UNTIL ABOUT
12Z...THEN BY 14Z-15Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST INCLUDING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.
THIS SLOWER PRECIP ONSET WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SHORTER DURATION
OF FREEZING RAIN AND ALSO IMPACT A SMALLER AREA. THUS HIGHEST RISK
AREAS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA WITH LOWER RISK SOUTHWARD
INTO CT/RI AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO GLAZE THE ROADS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS.
HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ADVISORY MENTIONED
HIGHEST RISK AREAS WILL BE NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MA.
ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA PRECIP WILL BE ALL RAIN
FROM THE START.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION /RRQ OF 150+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET/ IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS INDUCES SECONDARY LOW PRES OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS COMBINED WITH A 50 KT SSW 850 JET ADVECTING PWATS UP TO +2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT NOON TO 4 PM ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THUS EXPECTING A COLD
SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUID REGARDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE...RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LESS RAINFALL NORTH OF THE PIKE
RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. NOT ENOUGH TO INDUCE RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING ALONG WITH LITTLE RELEASE FROM SNOWPACK AS DEW PTS
ONLY BRIEFLY CLIMB INTO THE L40S. HOWEVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FOR MINOR/NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS OF
PROVIDENCE/CRANSTON/NEW BEDFORD/FALL RIVER AND OTHER TOWNS ALONG AND
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
*** MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND ***
TONIGHT...
ANY STEADY RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SFC REFLECTION IN THE
FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AS LFQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE LFQ THERE IS
NOTICEABLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE WHICH ENHANCES QG FORCING. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
MODEST SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS MARGINAL IN THE MORNING AND
MAY SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM TOP DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL LOW...ANY
STEADIER PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MA AND RI.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVED SURFACES DURING THE DAY IN MID MARCH CAN
BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND DAYS GETTING LONGER.
THUS AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW INTENSITY IS REQUIRED. SO MINOR ACCUM
MAYBE CONFINED TO NON PAVED SURFACES. AS FOR SPECIFIC POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MA AND
RI. THE ONE WILD CARD HERE ARE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/COLD AIR ALOFT. THUS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY HAVE A GREATER RESPONSE THAN MODEL QPF
SUGGEST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST WITH UP TO 0.25 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
EASTERN CT/MA AND RI. EC SLIGHTLY LESS WITH ABOUT 0.15 INCHES. THUS
LOW RISK OF ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
POTENTIAL SNEAKY EVENT UNFOLD.
MILDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 40S POSSIBLE...
BUT TEMPS COOLING TO LOWER 30S IN E MA WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. ALSO
BECOMING BLUSTERY LATE IN THE DAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
OVERALL WORSENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY
* UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS...ARE A BIT SLOWER. WILL
LEAN THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A TIMING DISCREPANCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT. OVERALL...FAVORED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE LONG TERM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT ON TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL
BELOW NORMAL. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THEN TUESDAYS HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED EARLY ON AND STILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR MID MARCH
BEFORE COLDER AIR SURGES IN.
WEDNESDAY...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. COUPLED WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH...IT WILL ONLY FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THIS TIME
FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE THURSDAY. WEATHER FRIDAY WILL DEPEND
ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW THROUGH QUEBEC...AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.
TODAY...PRECIP QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH UNTIL 9 AM OR 10 AM TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CT-NORTHWEST RI INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN MA
INCLUDING NORTHEAST MA. ELSEWHERE ALL RAIN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR AT 12Z TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A STEADY RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM ABOUT
NOON TO 4 PM. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE
SE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...STEADY PRECIP BECOMES MORE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
FOG. IFR/LIFR TO START BUT THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR TO START THE DAY BUT THEN LOWERING OF
MVFR-IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE HERE RANGING
FROM A COATING TO PERHAPS UP TO 2 INCHES...PROBABLY CONFINED TO
NON PAVED SURFACES. N WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARD DARK WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE EASTERN MA.
KBOS TAF...HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.
KBDL TAF...WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN IS FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING THEREAFTER. LIGHT ICING
AMOUNTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE OUT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT -SHRA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...
S-SW WINDS BECOME SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT.
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE WATERS AROUND 12Z SOUTH ZONES AND 15Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBY
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG.
TONIGHT...
STEADY RAIN ENDS EARLY IN THE EVENING AND IS REPLACED BY DRIZZLE AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW PRES OVERHEAD BUT BECOMING WNW AS LOW
RACES FROM SOUTHEAST MA TO NOVA SCOTIA.
SUNDAY...
LOW EVOLVES INTO A GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA INCREASING THE
RISK FOR NORTHERLY GALES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS. HENCE GALE WATCH IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERLY GALES TO START ON THE EASTERN
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BRIEFLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THEN THEY INCREASE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GALES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WATERS. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ON THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
013>019.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
RI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE GULF
COAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE REGION BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9:30 AM UPDATE: STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW CHANGES WITH QPF TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS. STILL ON TRACK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE HRRR AND RAP HOURLY AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON ACCOUNT OF THE LOW CLOUDS, RAIN AND CURRENT OBS. ANY
INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS WELL.
PREVIOUS:
WE HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING. A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL MESONET OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE FREEZING AND WITH MORE/STEADIER
RAIN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING HELPING TO WARM THE AIR
FROM ALOFT.
CONTINUED THETA-E SURGE TIED TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WAA ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING, SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY MAKES
IT BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON IS OF CONCERN FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...THOUGH WITH A STEEP LOW- LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE WE`LL
HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE TO KEEP US OVERCAST. A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FRONT AND THAT
LOOKS TO BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE AREA...AN
ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN.
STILL DO NOT SEE THIS EVENT AS WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUE THOUGH SOME
MINOR, LOW-LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD HAVE WATER
BACKING UP. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WHICH HELP TO BREAK UP THE
PRECIPITATION A BIT...MORE SHOWERY. COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING THE RAIN TO
COME TO AN END. STILL COULD HAVE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN...LACK OF MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT KEEPS
THEM IN SLIGHT CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH
THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PRESENT AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE
CLOUDS THINNING AND CLEARING...ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY W-NW
WINDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. BOTH 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY EVERYWHERE ELSE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM DOES SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
(SBCAPE LESS THAN 50 J/KG) DURING PEAK HEATING BUT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE SINCE THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS FOR OUR REGION. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG JET STREAM NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER APPROACHES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PASSES THRU AT NIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LOW SINCE THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE
BULK OF THE LIFT STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL OWING THE STRONG HEATING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR IS HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD STRETCH WILL BE NOWHERE
NEAR WHAT WE EXPERIENCED COUNTLESS TIMES THIS WINTER AS THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE WILL HELP MODIFY THE COLD AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
10 DEG BELOW ON WEDNESDAY AND 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY/ FRIDAY.
KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
FASTER OUTLIER SOLUTIONS TRY TO BRING IN OVERRUNNING PRECIP LATER
IN THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR/LIFR. RAIN CONTINUES TO PRESS IN FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED BREAKS EXPECTED LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM FOR PHL, PNE AND TTN HAVE BEEN
MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A TIGHT LID
ON THE REGION AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS
NEAR 2KFT MOVE OVERHEAD. THE LOW- LEVEL INVERSION STEEPENS AND
PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY KEEPING THE LOW CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A POSSIBILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
MOSTLY SOUTH OF PHL/ILG.
TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN THE CYCLE. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOME DRYING TO OCCUR. WINDS VEER
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE A BIT, SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CIGS WITH CAA STRATOCU PREDOMINATELY IN VFR CAT THOUGH IT
HIGH END MVFR CIGS NEAR 3 KFT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BREEZY W-NW WINDS
SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 35 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W-SW ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KT LATE IN THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE BUT PREDOMINATELY VFR
EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME NW AGAIN IN WAKE OF FROPA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS BOTH DAYS. FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25-30 KT LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED THOUGH SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS COMMENCE. WE KEEP SEAS AROUND 4
FEET AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE HELD TO A MINIMUM GIVEN THE WARM AIR
OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS ALLOWING FOR LESS MIXING.
TONIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHERN WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE SCA GUSTS FIRST FOLLOWED BY
THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...SCA IS GOOD
THROUGH 6PM SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ON
SUNDAY. BREEZY NW WINDS SUSTAINED 20-25 KT. MIXING WILL MINIMAL
OVER THE COLDER WATERS BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE CLOSE TO
THE COAST. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4-6 FEET FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS. NW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE BELOW
SCA OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE COLDER WATERS SO EVEN WITH
W-SW WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECT GUSTS TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH ON FUTURE
SHIFTS. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 35 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL IN
THE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SAME MODEL SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF 30-40 KT GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ADDED
UNCERTAINTY IF WE WILL GET A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES SINCE THE GFS
HAS TENDED TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE GUSTS IN RECENT GALE EVENTS.
HOWEVER, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL MORE FAVORABLE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH COLD AIR MOVING ATOP THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THUS FAR WITH GENERAL
QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50 TO 0.75 RANGE ACROSS THE
HSA. SOME OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE HINTING AT 1.00 AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL WHERE THE SNOW HAS MELTED; SIMILAR TO
THE PAST TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT.
WITH THE 0.50 TO 0.75 PLUGGED INTO THE HYDRO MODEL, NO FORECAST
POINTS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS EVENT. ALTHOUGH, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME GAUGES MOVE BACK INTO CAUTION STAGE...NAMELY THE
MILLSTONE AND RANCOCAS.
IF RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO AN INCH UP ACROSS THE RARITAN AND
PASSAIC BASINS, WE COULD SEE MINOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.
FURTHER WEST, THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IS FORECAST TO SEE RISES. THIS
IN TURN COULD GENERATE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING DOWN IN CECIL COUNTY
ON MONDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-453>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ATLANTIC SHOWERS BUT THOSE HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
AND MAY ONLY EXTEND 20% CHANCE SOUTHWARD TO ACCOMMODATE FOR SOME
WEAK ACTIVITY IN BROWARD COUNTY. DUE TO DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE SOMEWHAT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS AFTER 18Z, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 12Z MFL MORNING SOUNDING
PROFILE WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS UP TO 10K WHERE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSISTS SO THUNDER IS OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
EXTENSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE. MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...AROUND 19-20Z A SOUTHWESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHOWER.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A REVERSAL OF SORTS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLICE OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST, AND A DRIER PUNCH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST LATER
THIS MORNING FROM THE BAHAMAS. WITH A SEA BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST LEADING TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE NAM/GFS BOTH
PAINTING QPF THROUGH THE NW CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE FORECAST TODAY. EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER DAY FOR THE EAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WEST
AND EAST COAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE PWATS, WITH VALUES OF 1.5"
AND 1.0" RESPECTIVELY.
INTO TONIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TOO TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT
THEN ENTERS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE LAKE REGION. THUS, SUNDAY FIGURES TO BE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS, WITH MONDAY THE
START OF A COOLER TREND, CLOSER TO NORMAL. SLIVER OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE THROUGH H7 MAY DELIVER SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL MIDDAY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM
AND HUMID UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED BY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW, PARTLY THE
RESULT OF PLUNGING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA, AND A
RETURN TO A NORTHEAST CONUS COLD TROUGH AS A GYRE SITS OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
MONDAY`S FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL
LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INO THE LOWER 50S BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST, ENDING THE POTENTIAL
COASTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL MEETING SCA CRITERIA JUST OFF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SO THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. SPEEDS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EVEN MORE
SO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A NORTHEASTERLY SHOT OF WIND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BRINGS SUBTLE
E TO SE BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN DROP
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN SHIFT OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BACK EDGE STARTING TO WORK IN FROM METTER TOWARDS SYLVANIA.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL PUSH THROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WHERE OCCUR IS STILL DIFFICULT...BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEST OF I-95
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WOULD ALSO FAVOR
THIS AREA FOR MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED IN THIS GENERAL REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WE ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW SHARP MID LEVEL
DRYING IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD...0-3 KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT A 2 KFT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE FREEZING LEVEL AND THE WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHT. AS SUCH...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SEEING A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND PREVENT CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING TOO DEEP. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING HOWEVER AND WE REMAIN
WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM SPC. FINALLY...THERE IS A BIT
OF VEERING IN THE PROFILE SO ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME WEAK ROTATION IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT
THE TORNADO CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
TONIGHT...AFTER CONVECTIVE RAINS MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF
THE CAROLINAS. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WE HELD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND N OF I-16 INTO THE
EVENING BUT END ALL POPS BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PASS INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS OCCURRING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR FOG ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW VEERS TO NW
AND NNW AND DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE OCCURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S
WHILE FARTHER SOUTH THE COMBO OF INCREASING SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSION WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL YIELD DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY...THEN SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH DAYS SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST WILL PUSH A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION. A SERIES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...HELPING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A MUDDLED PATTERN
WILL POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONT SPUR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE
MVFR BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BANDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL LATE DAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER MID AFTERNOON DEEPER MOISTURE
ABATES. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SUNDAY. THEREAFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...THE ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL VEER FROM SE LATE THIS
MORNING TO SW TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POOR MIXING
PROFILES IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ARE EXPECTED OVER
COOLER WATERS. IT WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN AND AROUND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
15-20 KT WITH A FEW ISOLATED 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT...THE SLOW TURN TO MORE SSW IN
THE WIND FIELD IS LIKELY A LIMITING FACTOR. RESIDENCE TIMES ARE
INCREASING BUT WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME BEFORE THE FRONT AND ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REACHES THE WATERS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR CONDITIONS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST...SO WE ARE STILL IN A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. GIVEN THE LIMITED TIME PERIOD AND SLOWLY VEERING
WINDS...THE ONSET OF FOG HAS BEEN DELAYED TO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...WE HAVE GONE WITH JUST PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. THE RISK FOR
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME TONIGHT.
AFTER A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY...A NORTHEAST
SURGE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS AND/OR SEAS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE TIGHTEST NORTHEAST GRADIENT WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A STRONGER GRADIENT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL
SURGE BUT IF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS PER THE LATEST GFS WE WOULD
NEED TO EXTEND THE STRONGER WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK.
PATCHY SEA FOG MAY PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/JRL
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1020 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15
mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning.
Last remaining fog has dissipated according to surface
observations, although considerable trailing high/cirrus cloud
cover remains, and a few light showers remain south of I-70. High
temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer.
Forecast is on track with these features and no significant
updates are needed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected to become VFR in the
12z-14z time frame at CMI and DEC as drier air advects southeast
into the area. After that, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary has pushed
into parts of central and east central IL as of 11z and will
continue to track east and southeast over the next few hours.
Winds have shifted into the northwest at 8 to 15 kts across the
entire TAF area and expect a northwest to north wind to continue
today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times later
this morning thru the mid afternoon hours. Winds will quickly
diminish towards 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
900 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS OF 310-340 DEG AND 10-15 KT SUSTAINTED SPEEDS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET POST FROPA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INITIALLY
BE ORIENTED IN THE 330-340 DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TOWARDS 320 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW
10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
* HIGH IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected to become VFR in the
12z-14z time frame at CMI and DEC as drier air advects southeast
into the area. After that, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary has pushed
into parts of central and east central IL as of 11z and will
continue to track east and southeast over the next few hours.
Winds have shifted into the northwest at 8 to 15 kts across the
entire TAF area and expect a northwest to north wind to continue
today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times later
this morning thru the mid afternoon hours. Winds will quickly
diminish towards 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR ILZ038-
042>046-049>057-061.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1015 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH THE STEADIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM PASSING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS...MVFR CIG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VIS DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO EACH TAF SITE TO TIME THE POORER AVN CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVENING...THE STAGE WILL PROBABLY BE SET FOR SOME FOG...
POTENTIALLY DENSE AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IDEA AS A
PREVAILING BLOCK OF IFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS AFTER 2 AM...FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR
LESS...FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST
POST FROPA...CONTINUING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT OR CALM AS THE FOG SETS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE FRONT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH THE STEADIER RAINS WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM PASSING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS...MVFR CIG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VIS DOWN TO IFR FOR A TIME. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
TO EACH TAF SITE TO TIME THE POORER AVN CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVENING...THE STAGE WILL PROBABLY BE SET FOR SOME FOG...
POTENTIALLY DENSE AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IDEA AS A
PREVAILING BLOCK OF IFR OR LOWER VIS AND CIGS AFTER 2 AM...FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...10 KTS OR
LESS...FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE WEST
POST FROPA...CONTINUING AT SIMILAR SPEEDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LIGHT OR CALM AS THE FOG SETS IN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
711 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 20 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
948 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS
UPWARDS ON HOURLY AND MAX HIGHS AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER
WORDING FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR BURNET AND LLANO. UPDATES ARE
OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WONDERFUL SATURDAY IS ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO UPPER
70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY ERODES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLY TO HAVE A LIGHT SPRITZ HERE AND THERE GIVEN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST. H925 TEMPS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 1-2C COOLER H925
ADVECTION PER THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
YET...THE STRONGER INSOLATION FROM THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
HELP SOME SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE AND PUSH US
TOWARDS YESTERDAYS WARMER READINGS. ALL IN ALL...A NICE DAY IS IN
STORE. /ALLEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light rain showers will affect mainly the southern terminals early
this morning, with brief MVFR visibilities possible. Otherwise,
expect a mid cloud deck to scatter out later this afternoon. A
weak cold front will move across the area today, with gusts to 20
KT possible, mainly across the northern terminals. Expect light
winds overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 41 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 42 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 41 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON TWO BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE FIRST BAND HAS MAINLY PASSED NORTH OF HIGHWAY
460...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON...
PRODUCING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL. THE SECOND BAND OF
RAIN IS PASSING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND
WILL CROSS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE
A LULL IN RAINFALL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE PER LATEST
HRRR/RAP MODEL SOLUTIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND RAIN BAND IS BELIEVED TO BE WHEN WE
WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES SPIKE UPWARD WHERE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE CLOUDS BREAK. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER WHERE
CLOUDS BREAK COMPARED TO A LOCATION 5 MILES AWAY WHERE CLOUDS HOLD
FAST. CURRENTLY STICKING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S AREAWIDE...BUT EXPECTING LOCALIZED TEMPERATURE SPIKES.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAIN SFC LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. OUTLOOK FROM
SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY BUT KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER IN FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LYH/DAN LINE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DRYING TREND...WITH SOME LINGERING NW FLOW
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF WV/SW VA...NW NC...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS ENSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THINK WINDS WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
AS 8H JET ONLY SHOWING 35-40 KTS...THOUGH ENHANCING TOWARD 50 KTS
PER NAM BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO LIMITED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NRN GREENBRIER LATE.
LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY/MTNS...TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PLACE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND FALLING DEW POINTS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WEST IN
THE 50S AND 60S OUT EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S. MODELS ARE BRING
A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
IT...BUT TO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. LOW DEW POINTS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S WEST AND 70S EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGED AREAS SETTLING TOWARD MVFR/IFR TO LIFR...BUT SE FLOW IN THE
WEST APPEARS TO BE KEEPING BLF FROM SINKING LOW. WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORED
THE 10Z RAP MODEL AND MAINLY LOOKING AT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STILL
A LOW LVL JET ABOVE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MIDDAY.
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND COLD
FRONT...AND EXPECT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT BCB/ROA FIRST BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT BLF A FEW HOURS PAST
DUSK. NOT GOING TO ADD THUNDER IN THE DANVILLE TAF AS MODELS KEEP
THE BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SE.
LOOKING AT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO WNW THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LIFT THE CIGS ABOVE MVFR IN THE EAST BETWEEN DUSK
AND 03Z...WITH MVFR HANGING INTO THE NIGHT AT BLF/LWB.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR BOONE AND
WEST JEFFERSON. KEPT IT LIMITED TO 20-23KTS AT THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH STAYING IN PLACE AS WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. FORECAST AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNING THRU
THIS EVENING GIVE ABOUT 3/4" IN THE MTNS OF SE WV...WITH MOST ONLY
SEEING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. RIVERS/STREAMS ARE STARTING TO
RESPOND TO RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT WITH MODEST RISES...
ALTHOUGH THEY STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE WE START TO SEE
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS PASSING ACROSS
THE MEADOW AND GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
753 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL SWING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA BY MIDDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF RAIN BETWEEN DEPARTING LIFT...AND
NEXT AREA WITH WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST
RAP MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. STILL MOST AREAS WILL SEE
RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NO RAIN
WHERE ITS JUST CLOUDY...WITH DENSE FOG SETTLING ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 AM...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN 3/4THS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. WARM FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF US OVER THE SRN GULF COAST
STATES AS WINDS ARE NORTHEAST ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO CENTRAL GA. WILL
BE MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST
OF US INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER GA THAT MOVES OUR WAY
BY LATE MORNING...BUT TRACK FAVORS IT HEADING TOWARD THE NC
PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WV PER LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS AROUND 12Z...THEN MORE
COVERAGE MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SOME BREAKS OUT EAST. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAIN SFC LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND. OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY BUT KEPT ISOLATED
THUNDER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LYH/DAN LINE.
THE NAM/ECM WERE HOLD A TIGHTER WEDGE COMPONENT IN PER SFC LI FIELDS
AND THE MOS AND 2M TEMPS REFLECT COOLER HIGHS THAN THE MAV. CASE IN
POINT THE MET MOS FOR DANVILLE IS FORECASTING 55 TODAY WHILE THE MAV
MOS SHOWS 66. ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER TO THE MET.
THEREFORE LOWED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF ANY
SUN CAN BREAK OUT LATE THIS TEMP COULD SPIKE TOWARD MID TO UPPER
60S. IF NOT...WE MAY SEE HIGHS ONLY CREEP TOWARD 60.
FURTHER WEST THINK RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN AS WELL THOUGH SE FLOW
TURNING SW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SPIKE IN TEMPS WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE A DRYING TREND...WITH SOME LINGERING NW FLOW
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS OF WV/SW VA...NW NC...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON GUSTY NW WINDS ENSUES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME THINK WINDS WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
AS 8H JET ONLY SHOWING 35-40 KTS...THOUGH ENHANCING TOWARD 50 KTS
PER NAM BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES SO LIMITED A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NRN GREENBRIER LATE.
LOWS ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY/MTNS...TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PLACE A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING
BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND FALLING DEW POINTS...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WEST IN
THE 50S AND 60S OUT EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S. MODELS ARE BRING
A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
IT...BUT TO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. LOW DEW POINTS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S WEST AND 70S EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VIA THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH NO GULF
OF MEXICO CONNECTION...I.E. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE THE SAME BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
MARCH NORMALS...NOTHING EXTREME.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEDGED AREAS SETTLING TOWARD MVFR/IFR TO LIFR...BUT SE FLOW IN THE
WEST APPEARS TO BE KEEPING BLF FROM SINKING LOW. WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORED
THE 10Z RAP MODEL AND MAINLY LOOKING AT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. STILL
A LOW LVL JET ABOVE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MIDDAY.
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND COLD
FRONT...AND EXPECT DRYING TO TAKE PLACE AT BCB/ROA FIRST BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING AT BLF A FEW HOURS PAST
DUSK. NOT GOING TO ADD THUNDER IN THE DANVILLE TAF AS MODELS KEEP
THE BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SE.
LOOKING AT WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO WNW THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH WILL LIFT THE CIGS ABOVE MVFR IN THE EAST BETWEEN DUSK
AND 03Z...WITH MVFR HANGING INTO THE NIGHT AT BLF/LWB.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR BOONE AND
WEST JEFFERSON. KEPT IT LIMITED TO 20-23KTS AT THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...
FLOOD WATCH STAYING IN PLACE AS WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT. FORECAST AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNING THRU
THIS EVENING GIVE ABOUT 3/4" IN THE MTNS OF SE WV...WITH MOST ONLY
SEEING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. RIVERS/STREAMS CONTINUE TO FALL IN
WV...THOUGH AS OF LATE THE RATE OF DECREASE IS SLOWING. IF ENOUGH
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR THE FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE MEADOW RIVER
AND GREENBRIER BASIN...THOUGH AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ043-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
253 PM PDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA,
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV THIS EVENING.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE RUNS PRODUCE
SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP GENERALLY FROM SUSANVILLE-GERLACH NORTHWARD
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 0.10 INCH. THEREFORE WE
HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES IN THESE AREAS MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
HIGH ELEVATION WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM RENO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. 700 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO 50-55 KT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A STABLE LAYER IS INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN
700-600 MB, WITH WIND SPEEDS NEARLY CONSTANT BETWEEN THE BOTTOM
AND TOP OF THIS LAYER. FOR STRONGER WIND EVENTS WITH DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENTS, THERE WOULD BE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IN
THE UPPER PORTION OF THE STABLE LAYER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH A THICK LAYER
OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD LIMIT GUST
SPEEDS BY A FEW MPH. AT THIS TIME WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WIND ADVISORY BUT IF THE NEXT GUIDANCE DATA SHOWS SIMILAR WIND
FIELDS AND/OR REDUCED CLOUD COVER, AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
EVEN WITHOUT AN ADVISORY, WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. THESE
WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
ONGOING VERY DRY CONDITIONS. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A NARROW BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND INLAND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CA. THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM CARRY THIS BAND INTO NORTHEAST CA-FAR
NORTHWEST NV, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS BAND WEST OF THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND LASSEN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
THROUGH MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST COULD
PRODUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW AMONG THE GUIDANCE SOURCES, BUT WITH ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET SO TRAVEL IMPACTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS. IF THE
MORE ACTIVE SHOWER SCENARIO OCCURS ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL MORE
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOW IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE. IT DOES ORIGINATE OVER THE PACIFIC AND HAS MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN IT, WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT MAINTAIN A MOISTURE TAP AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE A
HUGE PRECIPITATION PRODUCER, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION IS WELCOME AT
THIS POINT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING INSTABILITY BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE 500 LOW AND A VORT MAX, BUT WE WILL
RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
THE TROUGH EXITS THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN
PORTIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY. BY FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW RESULTS
WITH SIGNALS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER WEAK, BUT COLDER, SYSTEM TO
PUSH INTO THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A MEAGER MOISTURE
TAP TO WORK WITH, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY NOT AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
TYPE EVENT. HAVE EXTENDED THE COVERAGE FOR SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA, AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA, BUT LIMITED CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS AS CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT. DJ
&&
.AVIATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
BEING REPORTED EVERYWHERE, BUT PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A KSVE-KLOL LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40
KTS EXPECTED IN VALLEYS WITH UP TO 70 KTS ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES
LEADING TO TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLE ROTOR ACTIVITY. THE STRONGEST
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT IN ADDITION TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. LLWS IS UNLIKELY DUE TO SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS
AND DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET AGL. DJ
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PYRAMID
LAKE IN NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE
IN CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AROUND 00Z WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS WHILE REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY. A WEAK
AND DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH
REGIONAL WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z. THERE COULD
BE SOME FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL KAPF ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
INDICATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
UPDATE...
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MORNING UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ATLANTIC SHOWERS BUT THOSE HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY
AND MAY ONLY EXTEND 20% CHANCE SOUTHWARD TO ACCOMMODATE FOR SOME
WEAK ACTIVITY IN BROWARD COUNTY. DUE TO DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE SOMEWHAT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE AND THE HRRR SHOWS
THIS AFTER 18Z, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 12Z MFL MORNING SOUNDING
PROFILE WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS UP TO 10K WHERE A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSISTS SO THUNDER IS OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
EXTENSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE. MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z. FOR
TERMINAL KAPF...AROUND 19-20Z A SOUTHWESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS COULD AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHOWER.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A REVERSAL OF SORTS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A SLICE OF
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST, AND A DRIER PUNCH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST LATER
THIS MORNING FROM THE BAHAMAS. WITH A SEA BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST LEADING TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE NAM/GFS BOTH
PAINTING QPF THROUGH THE NW CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT ARE FORECAST TODAY. EXPECTING A MUCH DRIER DAY FOR THE EAST
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WEST
AND EAST COAST IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE PWATS, WITH VALUES OF 1.5"
AND 1.0" RESPECTIVELY.
INTO TONIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TOO TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE FRONT
THEN ENTERS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO THE LAKE REGION. THUS, SUNDAY FIGURES TO BE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS, WITH MONDAY THE
START OF A COOLER TREND, CLOSER TO NORMAL. SLIVER OF SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE THROUGH H7 MAY DELIVER SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL MIDDAY. DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION.
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS COMPLETE BY TUESDAY, WITH THE PERSISTENT WARM
AND HUMID UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED BY A ZONAL UPPER FLOW, PARTLY THE
RESULT OF PLUNGING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA, AND A
RETURN TO A NORTHEAST CONUS COLD TROUGH AS A GYRE SITS OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES BEHIND
MONDAY`S FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PERSISTING UNTIL
LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL INO THE LOWER 50S BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST, ENDING THE POTENTIAL
COASTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL MEETING SCA CRITERIA JUST OFF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SO THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z. SPEEDS DECREASE
SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND EVEN MORE
SO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND A NORTHEASTERLY SHOT OF WIND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BRINGS SUBTLE
E TO SE BREEZES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 85 69 81 / 0 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 71 80 / 0 10 20 30
MIAMI 71 85 70 82 / 0 10 20 30
NAPLES 67 84 69 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BIG CHANGES IN LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE LED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECASTS.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IN PLACE OVER PACIFIC AIMED
AT PACNW. MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER PACNW HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. RADAR SHOWING RAIN/EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN IDAHO BUT MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL
MTNS EVEN PER WEB CAMS. GFS AND NAM SWING FEATURE INTO THE FCST
AREA THIS EVENING BUT HRRR HOLDS OFF UNTIL NEARLY MIDNIGHT.
COMPROMISED WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY INCREASING AFTER 06Z. STRONGER
FEATURE STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THIS IS
WHEN MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE BEGINNING OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER TREND.
DESPITE A QUICK SURGE IN MOISTURE EARLY SUNDAY TREND HAS BEEN TO
SHOVE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME NORTH. BULK OF MOISTURE RIDES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE EXTENDING FROM CENTER OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. THIS KEEPS EAST
IDAHO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TRAILING
BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT THINS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
SYSTEM EJECTS EAST...TILTING ACROSS EAST IDAHO LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL
ADDRESS WATER ISSUES RELATED TO THIS CHANGE IN THE HYDROLOGY
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW. MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS REMAIN
MURKY HEADING TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH GFS AND NAM TRY TO SWING AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH NORTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER GULF ALASKA TROUGH SWINGS INLAND NEAR
SEATTLE/VANCOUVER. BOTH DEVELOP PRECIP BUT VASTLY DIFFERENT IN
WHERE AND HOW MUCH. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM AND THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE FOLLOWING SYSTEMS...OPTED
TO MAINTAIN WEAK POPS NEAR CLIMO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DMH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE
A SPLITTING SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY MAY BE DRIER...BUT HOW DRY IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF OVERALL SEEMS TO BE QUICKER
WITH THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD VS. THE GFS. IF YOU LOOK AT
ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD SHOWING UP BETWEEN ALL OF THEM.
THAT SAID...THEY ALL SEEM TO BE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND STORM MOVING
IN. WE DIDN`T CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH AT ALL IN THE END. THE ONLY
REAL CHANGES WE MADE WERE SUBTLE AND TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A BIT
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...WE CONTINUE TO SEE A BIT OF SUN MIXED WITH HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. WITH THE TREND
FARTHER NORTH WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...THE ONLY PLACE WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT VCSH IS KSUN. THE WIND HAS ALSO PICKED UP IN SOME
PLACES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THOSE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND DROP OF A BIT. KPIH AND KBYI WILL BE
PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT VS KIDA DUE TO GAP/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST...EVEN AT KSUN. IT IS POSSIBLE IS
SHOWERS ARE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OR PASS OVER THE AIRPORT
THERE...EXPECT CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DROP. EVERYTHING SHOULD BE
LIFTING EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING US WITH
JUST SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KBYI...KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES
&&
.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST MUCH DRIER THAN YESTERDAY. DEEP PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. RAINFALL
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN
HALF OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SERIES OF
STATEMENTS OUTLINING THREAT FOR RAINFALL BUT HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY
HEAVY WORDING. WARM TEMPS STILL LEADING TO MELT OFF OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SNOWPACK. MINOR SHEET FLOODING AND RISES IN AREA
STREAMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREATS APPEAR
TO BE MINIMAL WITH THE NEW MODEL SOLUTIONS. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...1111 AM CDT
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO 60...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 12 UTC MORNING ROABS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST
THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE OF REALITY...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURES COMING IN ABOUT 2 DEGREE C HIGHER THAN THOSE
FORECAST. GIVEN THIS...AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS THUS FAR THIS
MORNING...IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN REGARD TO
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS THE POTENTIAL BEHAVIOR OF A LAKE BREEZE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN
THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THIS IS
BEGINNING TO ALLOW SOME ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK COUNTY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT AS AREAS
FARTHER INLAND CONTINUE TO MIX HIGHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SOME GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE VERY CLOSE TO THE SHORE IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS UNTIL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE MAIN LAKE COOLING
MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORES OF
NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS.
KJB
&&
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
REGION LIES BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INLAND. GUST SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WHEN THEY OCCUR. GRADIENT HAS BEEN WEAK ENOUGH TO ENABLE LAKE
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORE. BKN MVFR STRATOCU ALONG
EASTERN WI AS FAR SOUTH AS KETB NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO
NORTHERN IL...BUT FEW TO POSSIBLY SCT CU AT ~3500 FT MAY DEVELOP.
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT TO MDW AND ORD BY THE
EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS OF ABOUT 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST
WINDS PICKING UP AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
RC
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN REMAINING ELEMENTS.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15
mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning.
Last remaining fog has dissipated according to surface
observations, although considerable trailing high/cirrus cloud
cover remains, and a few light showers remain south of I-70. High
temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer.
Forecast is on track with these features and no significant
updates are needed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VFR conditions with north winds 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts
expected until 00Z. Winds decreasing overnight and shifting to NW
with VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CDT
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES STILL OBSERVING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE DENSE FOG STILL IN PLACE.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SOME LIGHTER RAIN STILL PERIODICALLY MOVING
OVER MAINLY BENTON COUNTY. THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD STILL IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE THIS
SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC VORT MAX TO THE
NORTH HELPS STEER THIS MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES TODAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPS TODAY. MID TO UPPER 50S ARE STILL LIKELY
TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. AREAS
NEAR THE LAKE WILL OBSERVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE GRADIENT ALLOWS THE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE TO
BECOME ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
DENSE FOG IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE FRONT HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SUNRISE. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY ARE STILL OBSERVING ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT THIS
HOUR...WITH THE MORE DENSE FOG LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LONG TERM...
213 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 500MB TROUGH WILL BE STEADILY
DEPARTING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST...WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WIND...AND POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTING SE IT IS POSSIBLE
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT AT 950MB COULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE
SHORELINE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND PUSH EAST
ACROSS JAMES BAY MON...WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH YET ANOTHER SFC RIDGE DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES MON. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY MON. GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING
ON ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WOULD DICTATE HOW WARM SFC
TEMPS BECOME MON. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM GOING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA INTO WISC MON
AFTN/EVE...WITH DRY AIR STEADILY ERODING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW RETURNS TUE...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL CONDS AND
DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID/UPR
40S TUE/WED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA/ALASKA MID-WEEK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL CONDS OR MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREE RANGE. OPER GUIDANCE PROGS PRECIP RETURNING ACROSS
TEH FORECAST AREA THUR NGT/FRI ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SFC RIDGE...HOWEVER THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS OF 300-340 DEG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15
TO 18 KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RC
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET POST FROPA THIS MORNING...WITH
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INITIALLY
BE ORIENTED IN THE 330-340 DIRECTION...BUT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
TOWARDS 320 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW
10KT BY THIS TIME.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RC
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
213 AM CDT
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE A BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25KT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1020 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
A weak cold front has pushed across Illinois with N winds 10-15
mph bringing a drying trend through central Illinois this morning.
Last remaining fog has dissipated according to surface
observations, although considerable trailing high/cirrus cloud
cover remains, and a few light showers remain south of I-70. High
temperatures today should reach around 60 or slightly warmer.
Forecast is on track with these features and no significant
updates are needed this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure over Arkansas with
stationary frontal boundary extending northeastward into the Ohio
River Valley. A band of deformation zone rain continues to fall
along/near this boundary, primarily along/south of the I-70
corridor. Models indicate the rain area will gradually diminish
and sink southeastward out of the KILX CWA by mid-morning.
Additional rainfall amounts will generally be one quarter of an inch
or less. Further northwest, widespread dense fog has developed
across much of central Illinois east of the Illinois River, where
ample low-level moisture exists and winds are light. A cold front
currently across west-central Illinois will push eastward over the
next few hours, introducing northwesterly winds and rapidly
improving visibilities. Latest obs already show northwesterly winds
at both KGBG and KMQB, and HRRR suggests these winds and improving
visbys will spread eastward toward the I-57 corridor by dawn. Dense
Fog Advisory will remain in effect through 12z/7am, but may need to
be extended for an hour or two across far east-central Illinois.
Once the morning rain/fog pushes eastward out of the area, skies
will become mostly sunny across the board by afternoon. Despite
FROPA and northwesterly winds, airmass behind the boundary is only
slightly cooler. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to around
900mb, which would produce afternoon highs in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
High pressure will control the weather across central Illinois on
Sunday, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds. Thanks to
light southerly winds developing by afternoon and the mid-March sun
warming the dry airmass, high temperatures will reach the lower to
middle 60s. The warmest day of the forecast period will be Monday,
when southwesterly winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. With 850mb temps progged to reach the 12-14C range, think
temperatures will soar into the 70s across much of the area.
A cold front will drop out of the Northern Plains Monday night,
accompanied by little more than a band of clouds and a shift in the
wind. Once the front passes, a cooler airmass will settle southward
into the region, resulting in a return to near or slightly below
normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Coolest day will
likely be Wednesday, as high pressure drifting overhead provides a
cool northeasterly flow and afternoon highs remain in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.
After that, model solutions diverge for the end of the week. Once
Canadian high pressure drifts east of the region, the ECMWF develops
WAA precip in advance of an approaching short-wave Thursday and
Thursday night. Meanwhile, the GFS is further north with the wave
and is thus largely dry. Have scaled back the precip chances in the
extended, but will still carry low chance PoPs during the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys are expected to become VFR in the
12z-14z time frame at CMI and DEC as drier air advects southeast
into the area. After that, VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the TAF period. A weak frontal boundary has pushed
into parts of central and east central IL as of 11z and will
continue to track east and southeast over the next few hours.
Winds have shifted into the northwest at 8 to 15 kts across the
entire TAF area and expect a northwest to north wind to continue
today at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts at times later
this morning thru the mid afternoon hours. Winds will quickly
diminish towards 00z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 2 PM GIVEN THAT MUCH OF
THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A TENTH OF
A INCH OR LESS A HOUR. FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. DID UPDATE GRIDS WITH LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PLAGUED THE TAF SITES ON AND OFF MUCH OF THE
DAY. MANY OF THE SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IFR TO EVEN LIFR AT TIMES
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A FEW SITES UNTIL FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAF SITES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS FRONT USHERS IN DRYER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WE MOVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES AS EITHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM SW TO NE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF CWA THIS MORNING. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUICK
TENTH OF A INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND ALSO UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS
PRIMARILY AS THE FRONT AND MORE SUSTAINED RAINS START TO EASE
BACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. ALSO FINE TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THIS UP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME EXCESSIVE RAINS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND POINTS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AMIDST THE
SLACKENING SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THROUGH THE AREA THIS
NIGHT GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR.
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS
THE CWA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES PICKS UP ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SPINNING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG ITS AXIS
THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
BACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BENIGN NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR
FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN AMOUNTS STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEAST LOW DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL RETURN HIGH POPS TO EAST KENTUCKY FOR A TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE DRY...AND RELATIVELY MILD HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE RAIN
WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AROUND MIDDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH SO HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND
FORECAST WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE FFA ACROSS THE NORTH TO CONTINUE
AS IT IS FORECASTED...RUNNING THROUGH 2 PM. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT A NICER DAY FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S.
AGAIN USED THE SHORT BLEND FOR A STARTING POINT OF THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR LIMITED TERRAIN EFFECTS IN THE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH SIMILARLY LOW GUIDANCE FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD QUIET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
VERY MILD DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY SURPASS 70 IN
MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING UNDER 25 PERCENT. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF CLOUDS AND COULD EVEN SPARK A
SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO BRING IN TOO MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE AND ITS MORE LIKELY
WE WILL SEE SPRINKLES AS CLOUD BASES MAY NOT GET ALL THAT LOW.
THUS...GOING TO REMAIN UNDER GUIDANCE FOR POPS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WE SHOULD TURN DRY AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING POST FRONTAL COULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN
THE VALLEYS.
MORE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS EMERGING BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GFS
HAS NOW SHIFTED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OFF TO
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY BACKING OFF RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AS MODEL CONFIDENCE IS SHRINKING. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
RAIN CHANCES ALSO SPILLS OVER ONTO TEMPERATURES AS THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPACT THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PLAGUED THE TAF SITES ON AND OFF MUCH OF THE
DAY. MANY OF THE SITES HAVE BEEN RUNNING IFR TO EVEN LIFR AT TIMES
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE A FEW SITES UNTIL FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TAF SITES ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AS FRONT USHERS IN DRYER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WE MOVE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN ALL THE TAF SITES AS EITHER MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-104-106>112-119-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID MARCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS BROAD TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME THE EASTERN LOW OF A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THEREFORE...FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO PRODUCE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALL
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET REMAINING WELL
NORTH.
A SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES AIM ON THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH CAN BUILD
INTO/BREAK DOWN THE EXITING RIDGE. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ARE ON
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THINGS AND KEEP A BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...ALLOWING FOR MORE ENERGY TO DIG SOUTH AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A NARROW UPPER JET AND A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS FORCING WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE KEPT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WI
BORDER ATTM. ELSEWHERE...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. H8 TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE -15C THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LES CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
POOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL. -14 TO
-17C H8 TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
ISOLATED LES FOR THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS WHEREVER OPENINGS IN THE
ICE COVER EXIST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW ALONG NE LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. WITH A DECENT MIXING PROFILE
AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS OF 30 TO 40KTS AROUND H8 SHOULD MIX DOWN. NW WINDS OF
10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS SURPASSING 25MPH ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT BY MID-WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
LOCATION OF THE NW TO SE ORIENTED H8 TEMP GRADIENT. THE GFS PUSHES A
RATHER FLAT WAVE AROUND THE EASTERN TROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM FORM A DEEP SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
CONSENSUS LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL THINGS GET IRONED OUT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH CLOSER ARPCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR
AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC LLVL FLOW...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND FOR MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS ON SUN...THE LLVLS WL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTS TO THE SE...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPR LKS ON
SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABV AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC
LYR...IWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS ON SUN MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
337 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD INTO SE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF
AN UPR RDG EXTENDING NE FM THE DESERT SW STATES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND SCENTRAL CANADA. THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF CLDS AND SOME SN
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DZ IN THE MOIST CYC NW FLOW UNDER THE
ACCOMPANYING THERMAL TROF...BUT INCRSG DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV AND AHEAD OF APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS IS
CAUSING THIS PCPN TO DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE DRYING
ALOFT...PLENTY OF LO CLDS LINGER INTO NW ONTARIO UNDER THE H925
THERMAL TROF AS THE 12Z YPL RAOB SHOWS ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR. DRIER LLVL
AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF MN AS SKIES HAVE TURNED MOCLR EXCEPT OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF SFC HI PRES PRES NOSING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER LLVL AIR IS PRESENT OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO NEAR JAMES
BAY AND MOVING S IN THE LLVL N WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT ARE CLDS TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. FOCUS
FOR SUN WL SHIFT TO MAX TEMPS WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SW FLOW
BTWN SFC HI PRES SHIFTING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SHRTWV/SFC LO
CROSSING NRN ONTARIO.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO
DEPARTING SHRTWV TO END EARLY WITH SHARP DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC
IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO RAISE H5 HGTS UP
TO 120-150M BTWN 00Z-12Z SUN AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH APRCHG HI PRES RDG AXIS FM MN. BUT GIVEN RATHER
EXTENSIVE CLD DECK OBSVD UPSTREAM...CONCERNED LO CLDS MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APRCHG RDG AXIS THAT IS FCST TO SINK THE INVRN
SHARPLY BY LATER IN THE EVNG...ADVECTION OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO AND MN AS WELL AS ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS/ACYC
LLVL FLOW WL RESULT IN DCRSG CLD COVER BY MIDNGT. COMBINATION OF
DIMINISHING WINDS/PWAT FALLING AOB 0.25 INCH WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. INCRSG SW WIND
LATER OVER THE W IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SFC RDG AXIS WL LIKELY LIMIT
THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL THERE A BIT.
SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING FM MISSOURI TO OVER THE ERN CWA AT
12Z IS FCST TO SHIFT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY LATE ON SUN...WITH
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI BTWN THE RDG AND LO PRES MOVING
NEAR FAR NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SHRTWV RIDING E THRU SCENTRAL CANADA.
INCRSG H925 WINDS UP TO 35-45 KTS ARE FCST TO ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE UPR LKS...WITH H85 TEMPS AT 00Z MON FM NEAR 10C OVER THE
FAR W TO ABOUT 5C OVER THE E. ALTHOUGH MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG
MID/HI CLDS UNDER THE COMMA TAIL OF THE CNDN SHRTWV...COMBINATION OF
THE STRENGTHENING MID MARCH SUN AND THE WAA SHOULD LIFT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W HALF NEAR LK SUP COULD SEE TEMPS
NEAR 60. ANY PCPN UNDER THE SHRTWV COMMA TAIL SHOULD STAY TO THE N
CLOSER TO SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC AND WITH LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NAM SHOWS A FLAT 500 MB RIDGE AFFECTING THE AREA ON SUN WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON MON WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
AND SOME PCPN THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE COLD AND DRIER AIR
STARTS TO COME IN IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND KEPT
IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
DRIER AIR COULD BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -14C TO
-17C. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE FOR 12Z WED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING FURTHER EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THEN. A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH A SFC FRONT THAT IS
DISSIPATING WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK IN FOR FRI.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BY
ENDING BELOW NORMAL ON FRI. LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH MINIMAL CHANCES
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH CLOSER ARPCH OF SFC HI PRES RDG AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR
AS WELL AS WEAKENING CYC LLVL FLOW...EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND FOR MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID
EVNG. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME INCRSG HI CLDS ON SUN...THE LLVLS WL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR VFR WX TO PREVAIL. AS THE SFC HI PRES
SHIFTS TO THE SE...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPR LKS ON
SUN. WITH STRENGTHENING SSW WINDS ABV AN INITIALLY STABLE NEAR SFC
LYR...IWD MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS ON SUN MRNG BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES OUT THE STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NW WINDS OVER THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KTS OR LESS...SO OPTED
TO CANX GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF A HI
PRES RIDGE. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HI PRES SHIFTING
INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND A LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL
THEN CAUSE SSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST OVER THE E
HALF. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MON WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW. THESE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS ON TUE UNDER THE
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF TRAILING HI PRES MOVING THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ON WED AS THE HI
PRES MOVES CLOSER.
OPEN WATER REMAINS THE MOST PREVALENT OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND
OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
EXPECT THE ICE COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE UPCCOMING WEEK DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND
AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE A TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TEXAS INTO WESTERN MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTENDED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ON
THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO CAUSE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THOSE AREAS. LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED 4-9 DEGREES C
SINCE 12Z WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING 3-5 DEGREES C. HAVE NOT
REACHED FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND MAY NOT...ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LIMITED THE MIXING. HOWEVER WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF
WARMING...SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE WITH FIRE WEATHER
DANGER FOR SUNDAY. DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING REAL STRONG WINDS...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALL NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING DOWN IN THE 20S...AND EVEN UPPER TEENS
IN SOME AREAS. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS ARE BY FAR THE DRIEST WHICH
KEEP DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOW TEENS ALL NIGHT YET THE NAM INCREASES
THE MOISTURE...WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS TODAY...NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON HAVING NO RECOVERY IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DESPITE
THE LAYER STAYING SLIGHTLY MIXED/ SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE AND STARTING TO ENTER INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THE GFS WAS HANDLING THIS CLOUD LAYER BEST
TODAY WHICH DOES SHOW THEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST ARE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. DIDN/T PUT GREAT
EMPHASIS INTO THESE CLOUDS IMPACTING THE FORECAST LOWS...BUT THEY
MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT THICKER.
FOR SUNDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN 16C AND 22C BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AT 5-7C BY 00Z MONDAY.
LOOKING AT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE RETURN INTERVALS SHOW BOTH
700MB AND 850MB HAVING AREAS THAT ARE COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE WINDS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. NOT EXPECTING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WHICH PROMOTES DEEPER MIXING...AND
WHEN LOOKING AT PERSISTENCE WITH MANY OF THE DAYS IN THE PAST WEEK
SEEING MIXING UP TO 700MB OR HIGHER AM GOING TO BELIEVE THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO THESE LEVELS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT REACH 80 DEGREES WILL
BE NEW RECORDS. ALSO...WITH THE DEEP MIXING ANTICIPATING STRONGER
WINDS THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. USED A MIXED LAYER UP
TO 700MB FOR WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH PUTS SUSTAINED WINDS UP AT
20-25KTS FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHTER WINDS...YET
STILL WITH POTENTIAL TO BE BREEZY ARE EXPECTED GOING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT WITH ITS PASSAGE MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST REFLECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS MONDAY. A CROSS SECTION ACROSS
THAT AREA SHOWS SOME FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SATURATION. THE RESULT IS THAT A MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE
APPROPRIATE BUT KEEPING THE PROBABILITY LOW SINCE ONLY THE NAM12
SHOWS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS.
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF A FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS. IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.50 INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ON THE THE 295K THETA SURFACE INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT A CROSS-SECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...A COMBINATION OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WOULD ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE CROSS-SECTION TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SEEM TO FAVOR RAIN...BUT THE WET BULB INDICATES THAT MAYBE SOME SNOW
COULD BE IN THE MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS STILL
AT DAYS 5 AND 6 SO WE WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH THE PROBABILITIES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT MID DAY
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND BRING BREEZY
WINDS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF KOGA TO KANW. TO THE EAST...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RANDOM
GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW
LEVELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICTS. AS
INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE
QUESTIONABLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T PARTICULARLY TIGHT...SO
WILL BE RELYING ON MIXING DOWN WINDS FROM ALOFT FOR THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS. WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE EXPECTED MIXED LAYER
/700MB/ AT 25KTS TO 35KTS ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...THINK THE
HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR. AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY
LATELY IN TERMS OF WINDS...WILL GO ON THE STRONGER SIDE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE STRONGEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN THESE
AREAS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON RED FLAG WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS LESS OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FUELS ARE VERY DRY WITH LACK OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST MONTH SO ANY FIRES THAT START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND RAPID SPREAD. WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING /FIRE ZONES 210/206/219 AND 209/. THE OTHER ZONES /204 AND
208/ WILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH AS WIND SPEEDS MAY PRECLUDE FROM
NEEDED THE WARNING.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THEREFORE ANOTHER DAY OF 60 AND 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY. AT
THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL WITH WINDS BELOW
THE CRITERIA FOR THE NEED FOR RED FLAG MENTION BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CONDITIONS CLOSELY IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES FOR ANY
CHANGES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ206-209-
210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDING NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A TANDEM OF CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED AND WAS HANDLED
BEST TONIGHT BY THE GFS 200-300MB LAYER RH PRODUCT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS TONIGHT. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM 31 AT OGALLALA AND VALENTINE...TO 37 AT ONEILL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE ABOUT THE FIRE CONCERNS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY...BASED ON THE GFS H300 TO H200
LAYER RH FIELD...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MIDDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST FROM NORTHERN COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE SAME
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH EAST...MAKING IT AS FAR AS
NORTHERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST...A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING...WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RAW MET GUIDANCE...AND
RAW MAV GUIDANCE TO A LESSER DEGREE...CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT ON THE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM ALLIANCE...VALENTINE...PINE RIDGE AND
SIDNEY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH LOOK PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCORPORATED
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WINDS INTO TDYS FCST. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...FCST SOUNDINGS IN PARTICULAR...THE NAM
MIX US OUT TO H775MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS MIXING US OUT TO
H750. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WE MIXED OUT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE FORECASTING. MIXING US OUT TO H650 AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...YIELDS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. FOR TONIGHT...H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...WE WILL
NOT REALIZE THE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...HOWEVER DECENT
SWRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH LOOK PROBABLE OVERNIGHT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
RECORD WARMTH AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C/ MOVE EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENTLY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN REGARDS TO MIXING POTENTIAL. THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
MIXING DEEP ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY AM FORECASTING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.
TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DECENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A
SURGE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MIXES TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...AS THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY DOESN/T BEGIN TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND MONDAY EVENING FOR
POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A COOLER DAY WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF H850MB
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW 0C AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS...SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL
QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE RECENT WARM SPELL.
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE
MODELS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LONG
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
MORE INTERESTING MAY BE THE SYSTEM ON IT/S HEELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH PERHAPS SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT MID DAY
SATURDAY WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND BRING BREEZY
WINDS TO LOCATIONS WEST OF KOGA TO KANW. TO THE EAST...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RANDOM
GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
CRITICAL AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LOOKS PROBABLE TODAY
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
UTILIZING THE WARF SFC DEW POINT AND RAP DEW POINT FCSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WERE RUNNING DRIER THAN THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...YIELDS WIDESPREAD RH/S OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON DECENT MIXING UP TO H650 THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL YIELD WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH DECENT GUST
POTENTIAL TO 25 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
SPRINGVIEW...TO DUNNING TO OGALLALA WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN WINDS REACHING GUSTS OF 25 MPH. EAST OF THIS LINE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BASED ON VERY LOW RH VALUES...WITH SLOWER
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOST AREAS. PATCHY CIGS BKN-OVC060-090
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS AT
MVFR LEVEL CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CIGS BKN010-030. THE CIGS THEN LIFT
TO LOW END VFR BKN030-040 IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL
IMPACT KAUS IN THE MORNING AND KSAT/KSSF BY MIDDAY. N TO NE WINDS
10 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 24 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO
7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AS AIRMASS DECOUPLES...THEN INCREASE TO 7 TO
11 KTS ON SUNDAY DUE SLIGHTLY REINFORCING SURFACE PRESSURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SLIGHT TWEAKS
UPWARDS ON HOURLY AND MAX HIGHS AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER
WORDING FOR FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR BURNET AND LLANO. UPDATES ARE
OUT AND AN UPDATED DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW.
DISCUSSION...A WONDERFUL SATURDAY IS ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO THE LOW TO UPPER
70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY ERODES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
POSSIBLY TO HAVE A LIGHT SPRITZ HERE AND THERE GIVEN SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AND WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST. H925 TEMPS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 1-2C COOLER H925
ADVECTION PER THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
YET...THE STRONGER INSOLATION FROM THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
HELP SOME SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE SURFACE AND PUSH US
TOWARDS YESTERDAYS WARMER READINGS. ALL IN ALL...A NICE DAY IS IN
STORE. /ALLEN/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME MVFR
CIGS EXIST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND COULD THREATEN TO MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. PATCHY FOG ALSO CONTINUES OVER COUNTIES WELL TO THE
EAST OF AUS. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD REDUCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
IN THE LOWER RANGE OF MVFR AT SAT/AUS...POSSIBLY IFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR LUBBOCK AND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION SOUTHWEST
INTO DEL RIO. WINDS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS HAVE SHIFTED
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS IN NORTH TEXAS...SPREADING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE RETURNS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THESE WEAK RETURNS WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES AROUND DAY BREAK. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THESE
ENTERING LLANO AND BURNET COUNTY AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
18Z. WILL MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH MORE
THAN A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE CWA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE WITH LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER TEXAS WILL DIMINISH AND TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH MONDAY. IN
THE MEAN TIME...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SMALLER FEATURE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM BRINGS DECENT QPF VALUES INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ARE
NOT ON BOARD WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH. WILL
KEEP POPS MONDAY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BE
FORCED TO WEAKEN AND FINALLY MOVE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS TONED DOWN PRECIP
AMOUNTS...BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM. PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM TENDS TO SIDE
WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE REAL ROOT OF THE DIFFERENCES IN QPF
SEEMS TO BE AT 850 MB. THE GFS IS ONLY PROGGING FLOW AROUND 20-25
KNOTS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE PROGGING A 35 TO 45 KNOT
LLJ TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FORCING ARRIVES. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND THE
HIGHER TOTALS. WILL KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AND
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH PRECIP TIMING AS THIS MODEL
LINGERS RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME FURTHER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. MODELS ARE AGREEING WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEXICO UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING
EAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN THERE ARE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS WITH
TIMING AND A POTENTIAL FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL MEMBERS DO SHOW
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 51 68 53 71 / - - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 51 67 52 71 / - - - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 52 69 53 70 / - - - 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 49 66 50 69 / 10 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 53 74 54 70 / - - - - 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 50 67 51 70 / 10 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 51 72 53 69 / - - - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 51 68 53 70 / - - - 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 52 69 54 72 / - - 10 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 52 70 54 69 / - - - 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 52 70 55 69 / - - - 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Clouds are
clearing up across the area, resulting in mostly clear conditions.
Only a FEW/SCT upper level clouds are expected at most sites
through Sunday morning. We may see some low end VFR CIGS develop
at KABI between 12Z/7AM and 18Z/1PM Sunday. Otherwise, we will see
a few gusts to near 20 knots this afternoon, with winds
diminishing around 00Z. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Light rain showers will affect mainly the southern terminals early
this morning, with brief MVFR visibilities possible. Otherwise,
expect a mid cloud deck to scatter out later this afternoon. A
weak cold front will move across the area today, with gusts to 20
KT possible, mainly across the northern terminals. Expect light
winds overnight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A weak cold front will move across the area this morning, with
breezy north winds developing for a few hours in its wake.
Scattered to broken mid clouds have developed north of the front
across the Big Country overnight and will spread south through the
morning hours. An area of light rain has also developed north of the
front and is currently affecting portions of the southeastern Big
Country and northern Heartland. Latest HRRR shows this activity
spreading south across the eastern Concho Valley into the northwest
Hill Country counties this morning, before dissipating. Have
extended slight POPs across this area through the morning hours but
any precipitation will be light, with most areas only seeing a trace
to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall.
Skies will become partly cloudy by afternoon with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high
pressure settles into the area tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies,
with light north winds and overnight lows in the lower and middle
40s.
LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Two upper storm systems may affect West Central Texas next week,
bringing the potential for rain shower and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper low over Baja California will move
northeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A second
upper short wave will move across Thursday night into Saturday.
In the Tuesday-Wednesday system, the GFS model is showing
indications of a possible dry slot which could cut down
precipitation amounts, especially south of the Big Country. The
ECMWF is more optimistic on rainfall. The opposite happens in the
late week system, with the ECMWF showing a lot less moisture
availability. Potential for severe storms appears low for next
week. GFS CAPES are only in the 100-200 J/KG range Tuesday into
Wednesday. Instability is better, but still limited in the GFS
model for Friday, with CAPES of 300 to 700 J/KG in western
sections of the Concho Valley and in Crockett County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 68 41 65 45 72 / 10 5 5 0 5
San Angelo 71 42 69 43 75 / 10 5 5 0 5
Junction 72 41 69 46 70 / 10 5 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
655 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SOUTH INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. A CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LEANED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS A LAV/MET
BLEND WHICH CAPTURED THE JUMP WITH THE THINNING OF CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODIFIED POPS TOWARDS HRRR AND RNK
WRFARW TO CREATE THE BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT
A NORTHWEST WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES. WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MIDNIGHT
TROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY.
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. STARTING TO SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK
SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IF
SUNSHINE MANAGES TO REACH THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE THIS COLD FRONT BEGIN TO ENTER OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND RACE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MAY SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPID UPDATE MODELS
ARE NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES...AND THEREFORE
HAVE JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL...AND THEREFORE HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
ALONG THE FRONT.
EXPECT A NORTHWEST WINDSHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 65 MPH BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES...AND
OCCASIONAL 35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW 50S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MIXING WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER
GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ON THE RIDGES OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
RAMP BACK UP ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AHEAD OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MIXING OF DRY
AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH
A VALLEY/RIDGETOP RANGE IN LOWS FROM 30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
VERY MILD WITH COMPRESSION AIDED DOWNSLOPE WARMING MONDAY WHICH UNDER
SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S PIEDMONT AND 65-70
ELSEWHERE.
COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSING WAVE WITH THE BOUNDARY CROSSING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE LACKING AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW BUT APPEARS A
NARROW RIBBON OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WESTERN THIRD
DURING TUESDAY SO LEFT IN A PERIOD OF 20/30 POPS FOR NOW MOUNTAINS.
OTRW EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS AGAIN 60S BLUE RIDGE TO 70S EAST
TUESDAY ESPCLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND CLOUDS LESS. DID KEEP THE FAR
WEST MOSTLY IN THE 50S UNDER A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS BUT THAT MAY BE TOO
COOL GIVEN SLOWER TENDENCY OF COOL ADVECTION UNDER THE HIGH SUN ANGLE
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
COLDER AIR TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL PATTERN
REVERTS BACK TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROFFINESS OVER THE EAST UNDERCUT BY UPPER ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES. INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW NOSING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING STEADY COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL DRIVE 85H TEMPS BACK TO
BELOW 0C ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH LOWS BACK
CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOW 50S MOUNTAINS...TO MID/UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SW WILL EJECT A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NE INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THIS
FEATURE GETTING SHUNTED...AND THEN SHEARED EASTWARD UNDER THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM 5H FLOW. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH/EAST DEEPER
MOISTURE MAKES IT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE LATEST GFS FARTHEST
SOUTH THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS EC SLOWER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE LATEST WETTER CMC OUTPUT. THIS A BIT SIMILAR TO WINTER SYSTEMS
SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A
WEAKER AND MORE SHUNTED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. THUS KEEPING IN SOME
LOW POPS FAR SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD INCREASE
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS GIVEN SPREAD. ARRIVAL OF PRECIP
OVER THE SW EARLY THURSDAY COULD PRESENT A SNOW/PTYPE ISSUE AT
ELEVATION AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
PENDING NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIP. MORE PIECES OF SW ENERGY
COULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND SO LEFT IN SOME TOKEN LOW POPS ALTHOUGH
COULD EASILY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND DRY BY DAY 7.
TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS NOT TO GET OUT OF THE 40S MOUNTAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ONLY 50S
EAST BEFORE SEEING A SLIGHT REBOUND BY SATURDAY. LOWS COULD START OUT
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY 30S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...
BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT IS
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A SOLID WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REACHING
20KTS IN PLACES. CEILINGS REMAIN IFR IN SEVERAL PLACES...BUT HAVE
NOTICED IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WITH THE WIND
SHIFT.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA JUST AFTER
15/00Z...AND RACE QUICKLY EASTWARD...BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT TO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW MVFR/IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FOR KBCB/KROA/KLYH/KDAN IN THE
DRIER DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FOR LONGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING 60KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 850MB ALONG THE RIDGES DURING THE 15/12Z TO 15/15Z
TIMEFRAME. MIXING THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN 20KTS
TO 27KTS FOR MOST TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT STRONGER GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 35KTS
FOR KROA WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES INTO LATE EVENING.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXPECT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ009-012>020-022>024.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NF/WP